ALBERT

Note: Contents Part I Distribution and Characteristics of Arctic Ice Shelves 1 Arctic Ice Shelves: An Introduction / Julian A. Dowdeswell and Martin O. Jeffries 2 The Ellesmere Ice Shelves, Nunavut, Canada / Martin O. Jeffries 3 Eurasian Arctic Ice Shelves and Tidewater Ice Margins / Julian A. Dowdeswell 4 Greenland Ice Shelves and Ice Tongues / Niels Reeh Part II Physical Processes and Historical Changes of Arctic Ice Shelves 5 Changes in Canadian Arctic Ice Shelf Extent Since 1906 / Derek Mueller, Luke Copland, and Martin O. Jeffries 6 The Surface Mass Balance of the Ward Hunt Ice Shelf and Ward Hunt Ice Rise, Ellesmere Island, Nunavut, Canada / Carsten Braun 7 Holocene History of Arctic Ice Shelves / John H. England, David J.A. Evans, and Thomas R. Lakeman 8 An Overview of Paleoenvironmental Techniques for the Reconstruction of Past Arctic Ice Shelf Dynamics / Dermot Antoniades 9 Arctic Ice Shelf Ecosystems / Anne D. Jungblut, Derek Mueller, and Warwick F. Vincent Part III Arctic Ice Shelf Calving Processes and Ice Islands 10 Factors Contributing to Recent Arctic Ice Shelf Losses / Luke Copland, Colleen Mortimer, Adrienne White, Miriam Richer McCallum, and Derek Mueller 11 Ice Island Drift Mechanisms in the Canadian High Arctic / Wesley Van Wychen and Luke Copland 12 Recent Changes in Sea Ice Plugs Along the Northern Canadian Arctic Archipelago / Sierra Pope, Luke Copland, and Bea Alt 13 The Military Importance and Use of Ice Islands During the Cold War / William F. Althoff 14 Russian Drifting Stations on Arctic Ice Islands / Igor M. Belkin and Sergey A. Kessel 15 Risk Analysis and Hazards of Ice Islands / Mark Fuglem and Ian Jordaan Erratum Index

Note: Contents Part I The Baltic Sea environment 1 Brackish water as an environment / Hendrik Schubert, Dirk Schories, Bernd Schneider, and Uwe Selig 2 Why is the Baltic Sea so special to live in? / Pauline Snoeijs-Leijonmalm and Elinor Andrén Part II Ecological processes in the Baltic Sea 3 Biogeochemical cycles / Bernd Schneider, Olaf Dellwig, Karol Kuliński, Anders Omstedt, Falk Pollehne, Gregor Rehder, and Oleg Savchuk 4 Patterns of biodiversity / Pauline Snoeijs-Leijonmalm 5 Biological invasions / Sergej Olenin, Stephan Gollasch, Maiju Lehtiniemi, Mariusz Sapota, and Anastasija Zaiko 6 Genetic diversity and evolution / Risto Väinölä and Kerstin Johannesson 7 Physiological adaptations / Hendrik Schubert, Irena Telesh, Mikko Nikinmaa, and Sergei Skarlato Part III Subsystems of the Baltic Sea ecosystem 8 The pelagic food web / Agneta Andersson, Timo Tamminen, Sirpa Lehtinen, Klaus Jürgens, Matthias Labrenz, and Markku Viitasalo 9 Life associated with Baltic Sea ice / David N. Thomas, Hermanni Kaartokallio, Letizia Tedesco, Markus Majaneva, Jonna Piiparinen, Eeva Eronen-Rasimus, Janne-Markus Rintala, Harri Kuosa, Jaanika Blomster, Jouni Vainio, and Mats A. Granskog 10 Deep soft seabeds / Urszula Janas, Erik Bonsdorff, Jan Warzocha, and Teresa Radziejewska 11 The phytobenthic zone / Hans Kautsky, Georg Martin, and Pauline Snoeijs-Leijonmalm 12 Sandy coasts / Teresa Radziejewska, Jonne Kotta, and Lech Kotwicki 13 Estuaries and coastal lagoons / Hendrik Schubert and Irena Telesh Part IV Monitoring and ecosystem-based management of the Baltic Sea 14 Biological indicators / Michael L. Zettler, Alexander Darr, Matthias Labrenz, Sigrid Sagert, Uwe Selig, Ursula Siebert, and Nardine Stybel 15 Bio-optical water quality assessment / Susanne Kratzer, Piotr Kowalczuk, and Sławomir Sagan 16 Chemical pollution and ecotoxicology / Kari K. Lehtonen, Anders Bignert, Clare Bradshaw, Katja Broeg, and Doris Schiedek 17 Ecosystem health / Maria Laamanen, Samuli Korpinen, Ulla Li Zweifel, and Jesper H. Andersen 18 Ecosystem goods, services and management / Jan Marcin Węsławski, Eugeniusz Andrulewicz, Christoffer Boström, Jan Horbowy, Tomasz Linkowski, Johanna Mattila, Sergej Olenin, Joanna Piwowarczyk, and Krzysztof Skóra Subject index Taxonomy index

Note: Contents: 1 Introduction to the Application of Paleoecological Techniques in Estuaries / Kathryn H. Taffs, Krystyna M. Saunders, Kaarina Weckström, Peter A. Gell, and C. Gregory Skilbeck. - PART I ESTARIES AND THEIR MANAGEMENT. - 2 Estuary Form and Function: Implications for Palaeoecological Studies / Peter Scanes, Angus Ferguson, and Jaimie Potts. - 3 Geology and Sedimentary History of Modern Estuaries / C. Gregory Skilbeck, Andrew D. Heap, and Colin D. Woodroffe. - 4 Paleoecological Evidence for Variability and Change in Estuaries: Insights for Management / Krystyna M. Saunders and Peter A. Gell. - PART II CORING AND DATING OF ESTUARINE SEDIMENTS. - 5 Sediment Sampling in Estuaries: Site Selection and Sampling Techniques / C. Gregory Skilbeck, Stacey Trevathan-Tackett, Pemika Apichanangkool, and Peter I. Macreadie. - 6 Some Practical Considerations Regarding the Application of 210Pb and 137Cs Dating to Estuarine Sediments / Thorbjoern Joest Andersen. - 7 Radiocarbon Dating in Estuarine Environments / Jesper Olsen, Philippa Ascough, Bryan C. Lougheed, and Peter Rasmussen. - PART III TECHNIQUES FOR PALAEOENVIRONMENTAL RECONSTRUCTIONS IN ESTUARINES. - 8 Lipid Biomarkers as Organic Geochemical Proxies for the Paleoenvironmental Reconstruction of Estuarine Environments / John K. Volkman and Rienk H. Smittenberg. - 9 C/N ratios and Carbon Isotope Composition of Organic Matter in Estuarine Environments / Melanie J. Leng and Jonathan P. Lewis. - 10 Physical and Chemical Factors to Consider when Studying Historical Contamination and Pollution in Estuaries / Amanda Reichelt-Brushett, Malcolm Clark, and Gavin Birch. - 11 Diatoms as Indicators of Environmental Change in Estuaries / Kathryn H. Taffs, Krystyna M. Saunders, and Brendan Logan. - 12 Dinoflagellate Cysts as Proxies for Holocene Environmental Change in Estuaries: Diversity, Abundance and Morphology / Marianne Ellegaard, Barrie Dale, Kenneth N. Mertens, Vera Pospelova, and Sofia Ribeiro. - 13 Applications of Foraminifera, Testate Amoebae and Tintinnids in Estuarine Palaeoecology / Anupam Ghosh and Helena L. Filipsson. - 14 Ostracods as Recorders of Palaeoenvironmental Change in Estuaries / Jessica M. Reeves. - 15 Application of Molluscan Analyses to the Reconstruction of Past Environmental Conditions in Estuaries / G. Lynn Wingard and Donna Surge. - 16 Corals in Estuarine Environments: Their Response to Environmental Changes and Application in Reconstructing Past Environmental Variability / Francisca Staines-Urías. - 17 Inferring Environmental Change in Estuaries from Plant Macrofossils / John Tibby and Carl D. Sayer. - 18 Applications of Pollen Analysis in Estuarine Systems / Joanna C. Ellison. - PART IV CASE STUDIES. - 19 Palaeo-Environmental Approaches to Reconstructing Sea Level Changes in Estuaries / Brigid V. Morrison and Joanna C. Ellison. - 20 Paleoecology Studies in Chesapeake Bay: A Model System for Understanding Interactions between Climate, Anthropogenic Activities and the Environment / Elizabeth A. Canuel, Grace S. Brush, Thomas M. Cronin, Rowan Lockwood, and Andrew R. Zimmerman. - 21 Paleosalinity Changes in the Río de la Plata Estuary and on the Adjacent Uruguayan Continental Shelf over the Past 1200 Years: An Approach Using Diatoms as a Proxy / Laura Perez, Felipe García-Rodríguez, and Till J.J. Hanebuth. - 22 Application of Paleoecology to Ecosystem Restoration: A Case Study from South Florida’s Estuaries / G. Lynn Wingard. - 23 Paleolimnological History of the Coorong: Identifying the Natural Ecological Character of a Ramsar Wetland in Crisis / Peter A. Gell. - 24 Palaeoenvironmental History of the Baltic Sea: One of the Largest Brackish-water Ecosystems in the World / Kaarina Weckström, Jonathan P. Lewis, Elinor Andrén, Marianne Ellegaard, Peter Rasmussen, and Richard Telford. - Glossary. - Index

Note: Contents: Part I. Ecological Economics, Climate Change, and Sustainable Development -- Chapter 1. Ecological Economics and Climate Change -- Chapter 2. Sustainable Development and Climate Change -- Chapter 3. Policies to Achieve Sustainable Development -- Chapter 4. A Sustainable Versus a Growth-As-Usual Scenario -- Part II. Alternative Perspectives of the Climate Change Crisis -- Chapter 5. A Mainstream Economic Perspective of the Climate Change Crisis -- Chapter 6. An Ecological Economic Perspective of the Climate Change Crisis -- Part III. A Way Forward and the Road to Sustainable Development -- Chapter 7. The Case for an Emissions-Trading System to Help Resolve the Climate Change Crisis -- Chapter 8. International Climate Change Institutions and the Greenhouse-Gas Emitting Performance of Nations -- Chapter 9 Laying the Foundations to Support a New Global Climate Change Protocol -- Chapter 10. A Post-2020 Protocol and Emissions-Trading Framework to Resolve the Climate Change Crisis

Note: Contents: 1 General Introduction. - 1.1 The Climate System. - 1.2 The Atmosphere. - 1.3 Energy Budget and Atmospheric Composition. - 1.4 The Water Cycle. - 1.5 Aerosols and Climate Change. - 1.6 Outline of this Textbook. - References. - Further Reading (Textbooks and Articles. - 2 Atmospheric Aerosols. - 2.1 Definitions. - 2.2 Sources of Aerosols and Aerosol Precursors. - 2.2.1 Marine Aerosols. - 2.2.2 Desert Dust. - 2.2.3 Volcanic Aerosols. - 2.2.4 Biogenic Aerosols. - 2.2.5 Biomass Burning Aerosols. - 2.2.6 Aerosols from Fossil Fuel Combustion. - 2.3 Spatial and Temporal Aerosol Distributions. - 2.4 Aerosol-Cloud-Radiation Interactions. - 2.5 Climate Effects of Aerosols. - References. - Further Reading (Textbooks and Articles). - 3 Physical, Chemical and Optical Aerosol Properties. - 3.1 Fine, Accumulation and Coarse Modes. - 3.2 Size Distribution. - 3.3 Chemical Composition. - 3.3.1 Aerosol Mixture. - 3.3.2 Inorganic Aerosols. - 3.3.3 Black Carbon Aerosols. - 3.3.4 Organic Aerosols. - 3.3.5 Geographic Distribution of Aerosol Chemical Composition. - 3.4 Refractive Index. - 3.5 Deliquescence, Efflorescence and Hysteresis. - 3.6 Definition of Aerosol Optical Properties. - 3.6.1 Absorption and Scattering Cross Sections. - 3.6.2 Phase Function. - 3.6.3 Upscatter Fractions. - 3.7 Calculation of Aerosol Optical Properties. - 3.7.1 Mie Theory. - 3. 7.2 Extinction, Scattering and Absorption. - 3.7.3 Optical Depth and Angström Coefficient. - 3.8 Optical Properties of Nonspherical Aerosols. - 3.9 Aerosols and Atmospheric Visibility. - References. - Further Reading (Textbooks and Articles). - 4 Aerosol Modelling. - 4.1 Introduction. - 4.2 Emissions. - 4.2.1 Generalities. - 4.2.2 Fossil Fuels, Biofuels, and Other Anthropogenic Sources. - 4.2.3 Vegetation Fires. - 4.2.4 Sea Spray. - 4.2.5 Desert Dust. - 4.2.6 Dimethylsulphide. - 4.2.7 Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds. - 4.2.8 Volcanoes. - 4.2.9 Resuspension. - 4.3 Atmospheric Processes. - 4.3.1 Nucleation. - 4.3.2 Condensation of Semi-Volatile Compounds. - 4.3.3 Coagulation. - 4.3.4 In-Cloud Aerosol Production. - 4.3.5 Wet Deposition. - 4.3.6 Dry Deposition. - 4.3.7 Sedimentation. - 4.3.8 Aerosol Transport. - 4.4 Modelling Approaches. - 4.4.1 Bulk Approach. - 4.4.2 Sectional Approach. - 4.4.3 Modal Approach. - 4.5 Example: The Sulphur Budget. - References. - Further Reading (Textbooks and Articles). - 5 Interactions of Radiation with Matter and Atmospheric Radiative Transfer. - 5.1 Introduction. - 5.2 Electromagnetic Radiation. - 5.2.1 Generalities. - 5.2.2 Definitions. - 5.3 Interactions of Radiation with Matter. - 5.3.1 Matter, Energy and Spectral Lines. - 5.3.2 Intensity of Spectral Lines. - 5.3.3 Spectral Line Profiles. - 5.3.4 Processes of lnteractions of Radiation with Matter. - 5.4 Modelling of the Interaction Processes. - 5.4.1 Molecular Absorption Coefficient. - 5.4.2 Scattering Phase Function. - 5.4.3 Molecular Scattering. - 5.4.4 Absorption and Scattering by Aerosols. - 5.4.5 Thermal Emission. - 5.5 Atmospheric Radiative Transfer. - 5.5.1 Equation of Radiative Transfer. - 5.5.2 Extinction Only. - 5.5.3 Scattering Medium. - 5.5.4 Plane-Parallel Atmosphere. - 5.5.5 Resolution of the Equation of Radiative Transfer. - 5.6 Absorption Bands, Energy, and Actinic Fluxes. - 5.6.1 Main Molecular Absorption Bands in the Atmosphere. - 5.6.2 Radiative Flux. - 5.6.3 Two-Flux Method. - 5.6.4 Stefan-Boltzmann Law. - 5.6.5 Radiative Budget. - 5.6.6 Actinic Fluxes. - 5.6.7 Polarization of Radiation. - References. - Further Reading (Textbooks and Articles). - 6 In Situ and Remote Sensing Measurements of Aerosols. - 6.1 Introduction to Aerosol Remote Sensing. - 6.2 Passive Remote Sensing: Measurement of the Extinction. - 6.2.1 General Principles. - 6.2.2 Ground-Based Photometry. - 6.2.3 Spaceborne Occultation Measurements. - 6.2.4 Retrieval of Aerosol Size Distribution. - 6.3 Passive Remote Sensing: Measurement of the Scattering. - 6.3.1 General Principles. - 6.3.2 Ground-Based Measurement of Scattered Radiation. - 6.3.3 Spaceborne Measurements of Scattered Radiation. - 6.4 Measurement of Infrared Radiation. - 6.4.1 General Principles. - 6.4.2 Spaceborne Nadir Measurement of Infrared Radiation. - 6.4.3 Spaceborne Limb Measurement of Infrared Radiation. - 6.5 Active Remote Sensing: Lidar. - 6.5.1 General Principles. - 6.5.2 The Lidar Equation. - 6.5.3 Raman Lidar. - 6.6 In Situ Aerosol Measurements. - 6.6.1 Measurement of Aerosol Concentrations. - 6.6.2 Measurement of Aerosol Chemical Composition. - 6.6.3 Measurement of Aerosol Scattering. - 6.6.4 Measurement of Aerosol Absorption. - 6.7 Conclusions. - References. - Further Reading (Textbooks and Articles). - 7 Aerosol Data Assimilation. - 7.1 Introduction. - 7.2 Basic Principles of Data Assimilation. - 7.3 Applications of Data Assimilation for Aerosols. - References. - Further Reading (Textbooks and Articles). - 8 Aerosol-Radiation Interactions. - 8.1 Introduction. - 8.2 Atmospheric Radiative Effects Due to Aerosols. - 8.2.1 Simplified Equation for Scattering Aerosols. - 8.2.2 Simplified Equation for Absorbing Aerosols. - 8.2.3 Radiative Transfer Calculations. - 8.2.4 Global Estimates and Sources of Uncertainty. - 8.3 Rapid Adjustments to Aerosol-Radiation Interactions. - 8.4 Radiative Impact of Aerosols on Surface Snow and Ice. - References. - Further Reading (Textbooks and Articles). - 9 Aerosol-Cloud lnteractions. - 39.1 Introduction. - 9 .1.1 Cloud Formation. - 9 .1.2 Cloud Distribution. - 9 .1.3 Aerosol-Cloud Interactions. - 9.2 Aerosol Effects on Liquid Clouds. - 9 .2.1 Saturation Pressure of Water Vapour. - 9.2.2 Kelvin Effect. - 9.2.3 Raoult's Law. - . - 9.2.4 Köhler Theory. - 9.2.5 Extensions to the Köhler Theory. - 9.2.6 CCN and Supersaturation in the Cloud. - 9.2.7 Dynamical and Radiative Effects in Clouds. - 9.2.8 Principle of the Cloud Albedo Effect. - 9.2.9 Observations of the Cloud Albedo Effect. - 9.2.10 Adjustments in Liquid Water Clouds. - 9.2.11 Rapid Adjustments Occurring in Liquid Clouds. - 9.3 Aerosols Effects on Mixed-Phased and Ice Clouds. - 9.3.1 Elements of Microphysics of Ice Clouds. - 9.3.2 Impact of Anthropogenic Aerosols on Ice Clouds. - 9.4 Forcing Due to Aerosol-Cloud lnteractions. - 9.5 Aerosols, Contrails and Aviation-Induced Cloudiness. - 9.5.1 Formation of Condensation Trails. - 9.5.2 Estimate of the Climate Impact of Contrails. - References. - Further Reading (Textbooks and Articles). - 10 Climate Response to Aerosol Forcings. - 10.1 Introduction. - 10.2 Radiative Forcing, Feedbacks and Climate Response. - 10.2.1 Radiative Forcing. - 10.2.2 Climate Feedbacks. - 10.2.3 Rapid Adjustments and Effective Radiative Forcing. - 10.2.4 Climate Response and Climate Efficacy. - 10.3 Climate Response to Aerosol Forcings. - 10.3.1 Equilibrium Response. - 10.3.2 Past Emissions. - 10.3.3 Detection and Attribution of Aerosol Impacts. - 10.3.4 Future Emissions Scenarios. - 10.4 Nuclear Winter. - References. - Further Reading (Textbooks and Articles). - 11 Biogeochemical Effects and Climate Feedbacks of Aerosols. - 11 .1 Introduction. - 11.2 Impact of Aerosols on Terrestrial Ecosystems. - 11.2.1 Diffuse Radiation and Primary Productivity. - 11.2.2 Aerosols as a Source of Nutrients. - 11.2.3 Acidification of Precipitation. - 11.3 Impact of Aerosols on Marine Ecosystems. - 11.4 Aerosols-Atmospheric Chemistry Interactions. - 11.4.1 Interactions with Tropospheric Chemistry. - 11.4.2 Impact of Stratospheric Aerosols on the Ozone Layer and Ultravialet Radiation. - 11.5 Climate Feedbacks Involving Marine Aerosols. - 11.5.1 Sulphate Aerosols from DMS Emissions. - 11.5.2 Marine Aerosols. - 11.5.3 Other Aerosols of Maritime Origin. - 11.6 Climate Feedbacks Involving Continental Aerosols. - 11.6.1 Secondary Organic Aerosols. - 11.6.2 Primary Aerosols of Biogenic Origin. - 11.6.3 Aerosols from Vegetation Fires. - 11.6.4 Desert Dust. - 11.7 Climate Feedbacks Involving Stratospheric Aerosols. - References. - Further Reading (Textbooks and Articles). - 12 Strato

Note: Contents: Continuous Path Processes ; Continuous-Path Random Processes: Mathematical Prerequisites ; Basic Concepts and Examples in Finance ; Hitting Times: A Mix of Mathematics and Finance ; Complements on Brownian Motion ; Complements on Continuous Path Processes ; A Special Family of Diffusions: Bessel Processes ; Jump Processes ; Default Risk: An Enlargement of Filtration Approach ; Poisson Processes and Ruin Theory ; General Processes: Mathematical Facts ; Mixed Processes ; Lévy Processes

Note: Contents: 1 Introduction and examples. - 1.1 Introduction. - 1.2 Why Bayes?. - 1.2.1 Estimating the probability of a rare event. - 1.2.2 Building a predictive model. - 1.3 Where we are going. - 1.4 Discussion and further references. - 2 Belief, probability and exchangeability. - 2.1 Belief functions and probabilities. - 2.2 Events, partitions and Bayes' rule. - 2.3 Independence. - 2.4 Random variables. - 2.4.1 Discrete random variables. - 2.4.2 Continuous random variables. - 2.4.3 Descriptions of distributions. - 2.5 Joint distributions. - 2.6 Independent random variables. - 2.7 Exchangeability. - 2.8 de Finetti's theorem. - 2.9 Discussion and further references. - 3 One-parameter models. - 3.1 The binomial model. - 3.1.1 Inference for exchangeable binary data. - 3.1.2 Confidence regions. - 3.2 The Poisson model. - 3.2.1 Posterior inference . - 3.2.2 Example: Birth rates. - 3.3 Exponential families and conjugate priors. - 3.4 Discussion and further references. - 4 Monte Carlo approximation. - 4.1 The Monte Carlo method. - 4.2 Posterior inference for arbitrary functions. - 4.3 Sampling from predictive distributions. - 4.4 Posterior predictive model checking. - 4.5 Discussion and further references. - 5 The normal model. - 5.1 The normal model. - 5.2 Inference for the mean, conditional on the variance. - 5.3 Joint inference for the mean and variance. - 5.4 Bias, variance and mean squared error. - 5.5 Prior specification based on expectations. - 5.6 The normal model for non-normal data. - 5.7 Discussion and further references. - 6 Posterior approximation with the Gibbs sampler. - 6.1 A semiconjugate prior distribution. - 6.2 Discrete approximations. - 6.3 Sampling from the conditional distributions. - 6.4 Gibbs sampling. - 6.5 General properties of the Gibbs sampler. - 6.6 Introduction to MCMC diagnostics. - 6.7 Discussion and further references. - 7 The multivariate normal model. - 7.1 The multivariate normal density. - 7.2 A semiconjugate prior distribution for the mean. - 7.3 The inverse-Wishart distribution. - 7.4 Gibbs sampling of the mean and covariance. - 7.5 Missing data and imputation. - 7.6 Discussion and further references. - 8 Group comparisons and hierarchical modeling. - 8.1 Comparing two groups. - 8.2 Comparing multiple groups. - 8.2.1 Exchangeability and hierarchical models. - 8.3 The hierarchical normal model. - 8.3.1 Posterior inference. - 8.4 Example: Math scores in U.S. public schools. - 8.4.1 Prior distributions and posterior approximation. - 8.4.2 Posterior summaries and shrinkage. - 8.5 Hierarchical modeling of means and variances. - 8.5.1 Analysis of math score data. - 8.6 Discussion and further references. - 9 Linear regression. - 9.1 The linear regression model. - 9.1.1 Least squares estimation for the oxygen uptake data. - 9.2 Bayesian estimation for a regression model. - 9.2.1 A semiconjugate prior distribution. - 9.2.2 Default and weakly informative prior distributions. - 9.3 Model selection. - 9.3.1 Bayesian model comparison. - 9.3.2 Gibbs sampling and model averaging. - 9.4 Discussion and further references. - 10 Nonconjugate priors and Metropolis-Hastings algorithms. - 10.1 Generalized linear models. - 10.2 The Metropolis algorithm. - 10.3 The Metropolis algorithm for Poisson regression. - 10.4 Metropolis, Metropolis-Hastings and Gibbs. - 10.4.1 The Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. - 10.4.2 Why does the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm work?. - 10.5 Combining the Metropolis and Gibbs algorithms. - 10.5.1 A regression model with correlated errors. - 10.5.2 Analysis of the ice core data. -

Note: Contents Contributors 1 Introduction 1.1 Part 1: Applied statistical theory 1.2 Part 2: The case studies 1.3 Data, software and flowcharts 2 Data management and software 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Data management 2.3 Data preparation 2.4 Statistical software 3 Advice for teachers 3.1 Introduction 4 Exploration 4.1 The first steps 4.2 Outliers, transformations and standardisations 4.3 A final thought on data exploration 5 Linear regression 5.1 Bivariate linear regression 5.2 Multiple linear regression 5.3 Partial linear regression 6 Generalised linear modelling 6.1 Poisson regression 6.2 Logistic regression 7 Additive and generalised additive modelling 7.1 Introduction 7.2 The additive model 7.3 Example of an additive model 7.4 Estimate the smoother and amount of smoothing 7.5 Additive models with multiple explanatory variables 7.6 Choosing the amount of smoothing 7.7 Model selection and validation 7.8 Generalised additive modelling 7.9 Where to go from here 8 Introduction to mixed modelling 8.1 Introduction 8.2 The random intercept and slope model 8.3 Model selection and validation 8.4 A bit of theory 8.5 Another mixed modelling example 8.6 Additive mixed modelling 9 Univariate tree models 9.1 Introduction 9.2 Pruning the tree 9.3 Classification trees 9.4 A detailed example: Ditch data 10 Measures of association 10.1 Introduction 10.2 Association between sites: Q analysis 10.3 Association among species: R analysis 10.4 Q and R analysis: Concluding remarks 10.5 Hypothesis testing with measures of association 11 Ordination — First encounter 11.1 Bray-Curtis ordination 12 Principal component analysis and redundancy analysis 12.1 The underlying principle of PCA 12.2 PCA: Two easy explanations 12.3 PCA: Two technical explanations 12.4 Example of PCA 12.5 The biplot 12.6 General remarks 12.7 Chord and Hellinger transformations 12.8 Explanatory variables 12.9 Redundancy analysis 12.10 Partial RDA and variance partitioning 12.11 PCA regression to deal with collinearity 13 Correspondence analysis and canonical correspondence analysis 13.1 Gaussian regression and extensions 13.2 Three rationales for correspondence analysis 13.3 From RGR to CCA13.4 Understanding the CCA triplot 13.5 When to use PCA, CA, RDA or CCA 13.6 Problems with CA and CCA 14 Introduction to discriminant analysis 14.1 Introduction 14.2 Assumptions 14.3 Example 14.4 The mathematics 14.5 The numerical output for the sparrow data 15 Principal coordinate analysis and non-metric multidimensional scaling 15.1 Principal coordinate analysis 15.2 Non-metric multidimensional scaling 16 Time series analysis — Introduction 16.1 Using what we have already seen before 16.2 Auto-regressive integrated moving average models with exogenous variables 17 Common trends and sudden changes 17.1 Repeated LOESS smoothing 17.2 Identifying the seasonal component 17.3 Common trends: MAFA 17.4 Common trends: Dynamic factor analysis 17.5 Sudden changes: Chronological clustering 18 Analysis and modelling of lattice data 18.1 Lattice data 18.2 Numerical representation of the lattice structure 18.3 Spatial correlation 18.4 Modelling lattice data 18.5 More exotic models 18.6 Summary 19 Spatially continuous data analysis and modelling 19.1 Spatially continuous data 19.2 Geostatistical functions and assumptions 19.3 Exploratory variography analysis 19.4 Geostatistical modelling: Kriging 19.5 A full spatial analysis of the bird radar data 20 Univariate methods to analyse abundance of decapod larvae 20.1 Introduction 20.2 The data 20.3 Data exploration 20.4 Linear regression results 20.5 Additive modelling results 20.6 How many samples to take? 20.7 Discussion 21 Analysing presence and absence data for flatfish distribution in the Tagus estuary, Portugal 21.1 Introduction 21.2 Data and materials 21.3 Data exploration 21.4 Classification trees 21.5 Generalised additive modelling 21.6 Generalised linear modelling 21.7 Discussion 22 Crop pollination by honeybees in Argentina using additive mixed modelling 22.1 Introduction 22.2 Experimental setup 22.3 Abstracting the information 22.4 First steps of the analyses: Data exploration 22.5 Additive mixed modelling 22.6 Discussion and conclusions 23 Investigating the effects of rice farming on aquatic birds with mixed modelling 23.1 Introduction 23.2 The data 23.3 Getting familiar with the data: Exploration 23.4 Building a mixed model 23.5 The optimal model in terms of random components 23.6 Validating the optimal linear mixed model 23.7 More numerical output for the optimal model 23.8 Discussion 24 Classification trees and radar detection of birds for North Sea wind farms 24.1 Introduction 24.2 From radars to data 24.3 Classification trees 24.4 A tree for the birds 24.5 A tree for birds, clutter and more clutter 24.6 Discussion and conclusions 25 Fish stock identification through neural network analysis of parasite fauna 25.1 Introduction 25.2 Horse mackerel in the northeast Atlantic 25.3 Neural networks 25.4 Collection of data 25.5 Data exploration 25.6 Neural network results 25.7 Discussion 26 Monitoring for change: Using generalised least squares, non-metric multidimensional scaling, and the Mantel test on western Montana grasslands 26.1 Introduction 26.2 The data 26.3 Data exploration 26.4 Linear regression results 26.5 Generalised least squares results 26.6 Multivariate analysis results 26.7 Discussion 27 Univariate and multivariate analysis applied on a Dutch sandy beach community 27.1 Introduction 27.2 The variables 27.3 Analysing the data using univariate methods 27.4 Analysing the data using multivariate methods 27.5 Discussion and conclusions 28 Multivariate analyses of South-American zoobenthic species — spoilt for choice 28.1 Introduction and the underlying questions 28.2 Study site and sample collection 28.3 Data exploration 28.4 The Mantel test approach 28.5 The transformation plus RDA approach 28.6 Discussion and conclusions 29 Principal component analysis applied to harbour porpoise fatty acid data 29.1 Introduction 29.2 The data 29.3 Principal component analysis 29.4 Data exploration 29.5 Principal component analysis results 29.6 Simpler alternatives to PCA 29.7 Discussion 30 Multivariate analyses of morphometric turtle data — size and shape 30.1 Introduction 30.2 The turtle data 30.3 Data exploration 30.4 Overview of classic approaches related to PCA 30.5 Applying PCA to the original turtle data 30.6 Classic morphometric data analysis approaches 30.7 A geometric morphometric approach 31 Redundancy analysis and additive modelling applied on savanna tree data 31.1 Introduction 31.2 Study area 31.3 Methods 31.4 Results 31.5 Discussion 32 Canonical correspondence analysis of lowland pasture vegetation in the humid tropics of Mexico 32.1 Introduction 32.2 The study area 32.3 The data 32.4 Data exploration 32.5 Canonical correspondence analysis results 32.6 African star grass 32.7 Discussion and conclusion 33 Estimating common trends in Portuguese fisheries landings 33.1 Introduction 33.2 The time series data 33.3 MAFA and DFA 33.4 MAFA results 33.5 DFA results 33.6 Discussion 34 Common trends in demersal communities on the Newfoundland-Labrador Shelf 34.1 Introduction 34.2 Data 34.3 Time series analysis 34.4 Discussion 35 Sea level change and salt marshes in the Wadden Sea: A time series analysis 35.1 Interaction between hydrodynamical and biological factors 35.2 The data 35.3 Data exploration 35.4 Additive mixed modelling 35.5 Additive mixed modelling results 35.6 Discussion 36 Time series analysis of Hawaiian waterbirds 36.1 Introduction 36.2 Endangered Hawaiian waterbirds 36.3 Data exploration 36.4 Three ways to estimate trends 36.5 Additive mixed modelling 36.6 Sudden breakpoints 36.7 Discussion 37 Spatial modelling of forest community features in the Volzhsko-Kamsky reserve 37.1 Introduction 37.2 Study area 37.3 Data exploration 37.4 Models of boreality without spatial auto-correlation 37.5 Models of boreality with spatial auto-correlation 37.6 Conclusion References Index

Note: TABLE OF CONTENTS: Preface / R. Matzke-Karasz, M. Schudack, K. Martens. - REVIEW PAPER. - Ostracod recovery in the aftermath of the Permian-Triassic crisis: Palaeozoic-Mesozoic turnover / S. Crasquin-Soleau, T. Galfetti, H. Bucher, S. Kershaw, Q. Feng. - OSTRACOD TAXONOMY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY. - The influence of El Niño 1997-98 on pelagic ostracods in the Humboldt Current Ecosystem off Peru / R. Castillo, T. Antezana, P. Ayón. - A new, interstitial species of Terrestricythere (Crustacea: Ostracoda) and its microdistribution at Orito Beach, northeastern Sea of Japan / S. F. Hiruta, S.-i. Hiruta, S. F. Mawatari. - Non-marine Ostracoda (Crustacea) of Banat district in Serbia / T. Karan-Žnidaršič, B. Petrov. - ECOLOGICAL FACTORS AFFECTING OSTRACOD DISTRIBUTION. - A year round comparative study on the population structures of pelagic Ostracoda in Admiralty Bay (Southern Ocean) / K. Blachowiak-Samolyk, M.V. Angel. - Water quality and diversity of the Recent ostracod fauna in lowland springs from Lombardy (northern Italy) / V. Pieri, C. Caserini, S. Gomarasca, K. Martens, G. Rossetti. - Factors affecting spatial and temporal distribution of Ostracoda assemblages in different macrophyte habitats of a shallow lake (Lake Fehér, Hungary) / A. Kiss. - Groundwater Ostracods from the arid Pilbara region of northwestern Australia: distribution and water chemistry / J. M. Reeves, P. De Deckker, S. A. Halse. - Ecological requirements of Ostracoda (Crustacea) in a heavily polluted shallow lake, Lake Yeniçağa (Bolu, Turkey) / O. Külköylüoğlu, M. Dügel, M. Kılıç. - Food selection in Eucypris virens (Crustacea: Ostracoda) under experimental conditions / O. Schmit, G. Rossetti, J. Vandekerkhove, F. Mezquita. - EVOLUTIONARY SIGNIFICANCE OF OSTRACOD MORPHOLOGY. - Extra-lobal and complex dimorphic features in Middle Devonian palaeocopine ostracods / G. Becker, W. K. Braun. - Evolutionary and taxonomic aspects within the species group Pseudocandona eremita (Vejdovský) (Ostracoda, Candonidae) / S. lepure, T. Namiotko, D. L. Danielopol. - On the origin of the putative furca of the Ostracoda (Crustacea) / C. Meisch. - Ultrastructure of the carapace margin in the Ostracoda (Arthropoda: Crustacea) / S. Yamada. - Ultrastructure of hepatopancreas and its possible role as a hematopoietic organ in non-marine cypridoidean ostracods (Crustacea) / R. Symonova. - OSTRACOD REPRODUCTION AND ONTOGENY. - Copulatory behaviour and sexual morphology of three Fabaeformiscandona Krstić, 1972 (Candoninae, Ostracoda, Crustacea) species from Japan, including descriptions of two new species / R. J. Smith, T. Kamiya. - Early release of eggs and embryos in a brooding ancient asexual ostracod: brood selection or a gambling strategy to increase fecundity? / R. L. Pinto, C. E. F. Rocha, K. Martens. - The ontogeny of appendages of Heterocypris salina (Brady, 1868) Ostracoda (Crustacea) / N. Kubanç, O. Özuluğ, C. Kubanç.