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  • American Institute of Physics
  • American Institute of Physics (AIP)
  • American Meteorological Society
  • MDPI Publishing
  • Public Library of Science
  • 2020-2024  (198)
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2023-02-28
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 52(12),(2022): 3199-3219, https://doi.org/10.1175/jpo-d-22-0009.1.
    Description: The abyssal overturning circulation is thought to be primarily driven by small-scale turbulent mixing. Diagnosed water-mass transformations are dominated by rough topography “hotspots,” where the bottom enhancement of mixing causes the diffusive buoyancy flux to diverge, driving widespread downwelling in the interior—only to be overwhelmed by an even stronger upwelling in a thin bottom boundary layer (BBL). These water-mass transformations are significantly underestimated by one-dimensional (1D) sloping boundary layer solutions, suggesting the importance of three-dimensional physics. Here, we use a hierarchy of models to generalize this 1D boundary layer approach to three-dimensional eddying flows over realistically rough topography. When applied to the Mid-Atlantic Ridge in the Brazil Basin, the idealized simulation results are roughly consistent with available observations. Integral buoyancy budgets isolate the physical processes that contribute to realistically strong BBL upwelling. The downward diffusion of buoyancy is primarily balanced by upwelling along the sloping canyon sidewalls and the surrounding abyssal hills. These flows are strengthened by the restratifying effects of submesoscale baroclinic eddies and by the blocking of along-ridge thermal wind within the canyon. Major topographic sills block along-thalweg flows from restratifying the canyon trough, resulting in the continual erosion of the trough’s stratification. We propose simple modifications to the 1D boundary layer model that approximate each of these three-dimensional effects. These results provide local dynamical insights into mixing-driven abyssal overturning, but a complete theory will also require the nonlocal coupling to the basin-scale circulation.
    Description: We acknowledge funding support from National Science Foundation Awards 1536515, 1736109, and 2149080. This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship Program under Grant 174530.
    Description: 2023-05-18
    Keywords: Abyssal circulation ; Diapycnal mixing ; Meridional overturning circulation ; Topographic effects ; Upwelling/downwelling ; Bottom currents/bottom water
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2023-02-28
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 52(6), (2022): 1091–1110, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-21-0068.1.
    Description: Hundreds of full-depth temperature and salinity profiles collected by Deepglider autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) in the North Atlantic reveal robust signals in eddy isopycnal vertical displacement and horizontal current throughout the entire water column. In separate glider missions southeast of Bermuda, subsurface-intensified cold, fresh coherent vortices were observed with velocities exceeding 20 cm s−1 at depths greater than 1000 m. With vertical resolution on the order of 20 m or less, these full-depth glider slant profiles newly permit estimation of scaled vertical wavenumber spectra from the barotropic through the 40th baroclinic mode. Geostrophic turbulence theory predictions of spectral slopes associated with the forward enstrophy cascade and proportional to inverse wavenumber cubed generally agree with glider-derived quasi-universal spectra of potential and kinetic energy found at a variety of locations distinguished by a wide range of mean surface eddy kinetic energy. Water-column average spectral estimates merge at high vertical mode number to established descriptions of internal wave spectra. Among glider mission sites, geographic and seasonal variability implicate bottom drag as a mechanism for dissipation, but also the need for more persistent sampling of the deep ocean.
    Description: This work was funded by NSF Grant 1736217 and would not have been possible without the help of Kirk O’Donnell, James Bennett, Noel Pelland, and all contributors to Deepglider development. We additionally thank the captain crew of the R/V Atlantic Explorer and the BATS team at the Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences, particularly Rod Johnson, as well as Seakeepers International for their professionalism, capability, and generous assistance in deploying and recovering gliders.
    Keywords: North Atlantic Ocean ; Eddies ; Mesoscale processes ; Turbulence ; Energy transport ; In situ oceanic observations ; Oceanic variability
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2023-01-27
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 52(8), (2022): 1705-1730, https://doi.org/10.1175/jpo-d-21-0243.1.
    Description: Formation and evolution of barrier layers (BLs) and associated temperature inversions (TIs) were investigated using a 1-yr time series of oceanic and air–sea surface observations from three moorings deployed in the eastern Pacific fresh pool. BL thickness and TI amplitude showed a seasonality with maxima in boreal summer and autumn when BLs were persistently present. Mixed layer salinity (MLS) and mixed layer temperature (MLT) budgets were constructed to investigate the formation mechanism of BLs and TIs. The MLS budget showed that BLs were initially formed in response to horizontal advection of freshwater in boreal summer and then primarily maintained by precipitation. The MLT budget revealed that penetration of shortwave radiation through the mixed layer base is the dominant contributor to TI formation through subsurface warming. Geostrophic advection is a secondary contributor to TI formation through surface cooling. When the BL exists, the cooling effect from entrainment and the warming effect from detrainment are both significantly reduced. In addition, when the BL is associated with the presence of a TI, entrainment works to warm the mixed layer. The presence of BLs makes the shallower mixed layer more sensitive to surface heat and freshwater fluxes, acting to enhance the formation of TIs that increase the subsurface warming via shortwave penetration.
    Description: SK is supported by JSPS Overseas Research Fellowships. JS and SK are supported by NASA Grant 80NSSC18K1500. JTF and the mooring deployment were funded by NASA Grants NNX15AG20G and 80NSSC18K1494. DZ is supported by NASA Grant 80NSSC18K1499. This publication is partially funded by the Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean, and Ecosystem Studies (CICOES) under NOAA Cooperative Agreement NA20OAR4320271, Contribution 2021-1152. This is PMEL Contribution 5268.
    Description: 2023-01-27
    Keywords: Ocean ; North Pacific Ocean ; Tropics ; Entrainment ; Oceanic mixed layer ; Salinity
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 4
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, pp. 1-40, ISSN: 0894-8755
    Publication Date: 2023-09-04
    Description: 〈jats:title〉Abstract〈/jats:title〉 〈jats:p〉Tipping points in the Earth system describe critical thresholds beyond which a single component, part of the system, or the system as a whole changes from one stable state to another. In the present-day Southern Ocean, the Weddell Sea constitutes an important dense-water formation site, associated with efficient deep-ocean carbon and oxygen transfer and low ice-shelf basal melt rates. Here, a regime shift will occur when continental shelves are continuously flushed with warm, oxygen-poor offshore waters from intermediate depth, leading to less efficient deep-ocean carbon and oxygen transfer and higher ice-shelf basal melt rates. We use a global ocean–biogeochemistry model including ice-shelf cavities and an eddy-permitting grid in the southern Weddell Sea to address the susceptibility of this region to such a system change for four 21〈jats:sup〉st〈/jats:sup〉-century emission scenarios. Assessing the projected changes in shelf–open ocean density gradients, bottom-water properties, and on-shelf heat transport, our results indicate that the Weddell Sea undergoes a regime shift by 2100 in the highest-emission scenario SSP5-8.5, but not yet in the lower-emission scenarios. The regime shift is imminent by 2100 in the scenarios SSP3-7.0 and SSP2-4.5, but avoidable under the lowest-emission scenario SSP1-2.6. While shelf-bottom waters freshen and acidify everywhere, bottom waters in the Filchner Trough undergo accelerated warming and deoxygenation following the system change, with implications for local ecosystems and ice-shelf basal melt. Additionally, deep-ocean carbon and oxygen transfer decline, implying that the local changes ultimately affect ocean circulation, climate, and ecosystems globally.〈/jats:p〉
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 5
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, 35(23), pp. 7811-7831, ISSN: 0894-8755
    Publication Date: 2023-06-23
    Description: Numerical simulations allow us to gain a comprehensive understanding of the underlying mechanisms of past, present, and future climate changes. The mid-Holocene (MH) and the last interglacial (LIG) were the two most recent warm episodes of Earth’s climate history and are the focus of paleoclimate research. Here, we present results of MH and LIG simulations with two versions of the state-of-the-art Earth system model AWI-ESM. Most of the climate changes in MH and LIG compared to the preindustrial era are agreed upon by the two model versions, including 1) enhanced seasonality in surface temperature that is driven by the redistribution of seasonal insolation; 2) a northward shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and tropical rain belt; 3) a reduction in annual mean Arctic sea ice concentration; 4) weakening and northward displacement of the Northern Hemisphere Hadley circulation, which is related to the decrease and poleward shift of the temperature gradient from the subtropical to the equator in the Northern Hemisphere; 5) a westward shift of the Indo-Pacific Walker circulation due to anomalous warming over the Eurasia and North Africa during boreal summer; and 6) an expansion and intensification of Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon rainfall, with the latter being dominated by the dynamic component of moisture budget (i.e., the strengthening of wind circulation). However, the simulated responses of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in the two models yield different results for both the LIG and the MH. AMOC anomalies between the warm interglacial and preindustrial periods are associated with changes in North Atlantic westerly winds and stratification of the water column at the North Atlantic due to changes in ocean temperature, salinity, and density.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2023-03-02
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 52(12), (2022): 3221–3240, https://doi.org/10.1175/jpo-d-22-0010.1.
    Description: Small-scale mixing drives the diabatic upwelling that closes the abyssal ocean overturning circulation. Indirect microstructure measurements of in situ turbulence suggest that mixing is bottom enhanced over rough topography, implying downwelling in the interior and stronger upwelling in a sloping bottom boundary layer. Tracer release experiments (TREs), in which inert tracers are purposefully released and their dispersion is surveyed over time, have been used to independently infer turbulent diffusivities—but typically provide estimates in excess of microstructure ones. In an attempt to reconcile these differences, Ruan and Ferrari derived exact tracer-weighted buoyancy moment diagnostics, which we here apply to quasi-realistic simulations. A tracer’s diapycnal displacement rate is exactly twice the tracer-averaged buoyancy velocity, itself a convolution of an asymmetric upwelling/downwelling dipole. The tracer’s diapycnal spreading rate, however, involves both the expected positive contribution from the tracer-averaged in situ diffusion as well as an additional nonlinear diapycnal distortion term, which is caused by correlations between buoyancy and the buoyancy velocity, and can be of either sign. Distortion is generally positive (stretching) due to bottom-enhanced mixing in the stratified interior but negative (contraction) near the bottom. Our simulations suggest that these two effects coincidentally cancel for the Brazil Basin Tracer Release Experiment, resulting in negligible net distortion. By contrast, near-bottom tracers experience leading-order distortion that varies in time. Errors in tracer moments due to realistically sparse sampling are generally small (〈20%), especially compared to the O(1) structural errors due to the omission of distortion effects in inverse models. These results suggest that TREs, although indispensable, should not be treated as “unambiguous” constraints on diapycnal mixing.
    Description: We acknowledge funding support from National Science Foundation Awards 1536515 and 1736109. This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship Program under Grant 174530. This research is also supported by the NOAA Climate and Global Change Postdoctoral Fellowship Program, administered by UCAR’s Cooperative Programs for the Advancement of Earth System Science (CPAESS) under Award NA18NWS4620043B.
    Description: 2023-05-18
    Keywords: Diapycnal mixing ; Diffusion ; Upwelling/downwelling ; Bottom currents/bottom water ; Tracers
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2023-02-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 52(11), (2022): 2841–2852, https://doi.org/10.1175/jpo-d-22-0025.1.
    Description: Prediction of rapid intensification in tropical cyclones prior to landfall is a major societal issue. While air–sea interactions are clearly linked to storm intensity, the connections between the underlying thermal conditions over continental shelves and rapid intensification are limited. Here, an exceptional set of in situ and satellite data are used to identify spatial heterogeneity in sea surface temperatures across the inner core of Hurricane Sally (2020), a storm that rapidly intensified over the shelf. A leftward shift in the region of maximum cooling was observed as the hurricane transited from the open gulf to the shelf. This shift was generated, in part, by the surface heat flux in conjunction with the along- and across-shelf transport of heat from storm-generated coastal circulation. The spatial differences in the sea surface temperatures were large enough to potentially influence rapid intensification processes suggesting that coastal thermal features need to be accounted for to improve storm forecasting as well as to better understand how climate change will modify interactions between tropical cyclones and the coastal ocean.
    Description: This research was made possible by the NOAA RESTORE Science Program (NA17NOS4510101 and NA19NOS4510194) and the NASA Physical Oceanography program (80NSSC21K0553 and WBS 281945.02.25.04.67) and NOAA IOOS program via GCOOS (NA16NOS0120018). The authors declare that they have no competing interests.
    Keywords: Seas/gulfs/bays ; Atmosphere–ocean interaction ; Currents ; Tropical cyclones ; Buoy observations ; In situ oceanic observations
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2023-02-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 52(8), (2022): 1797–1815, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-21-0288.1.
    Description: Intruding slope water is a major source of nutrients to sustain the high biological productivity in the Gulf of Maine (GoM). Slope water intrusion into the GoM is affected by Gulf Stream warm-core rings (WCRs) impinging onto the nearby shelf edge. This study combines long-term mooring measurements, satellite remote sensing data, an idealized numerical ocean model, and a linear coastal-trapped wave (CTW) model to examine the impact of WCRs on slope water intrusion into the GoM through the Northeast Channel. Analysis of satellite sea surface height and temperature data shows that the slope sea region off the GoM is a hotspot of ring activities. A significant linear relationship is found between interannual variations of ring activities in the slope sea region off the GoM and bottom salinity at the Northeast Channel, suggesting the importance of WCRs in modulating variability of intruding slope water. Analysis of the mooring data reveals enhanced slope water intrusion through bottom-intensified along-channel flow following impingements of WCRs on the nearby shelf edge. Numerical simulations qualitatively reproduce the observed WCR impingement processes and associated episodic enhancement of slope water intrusion in the Northeast Channel. Diagnosis of the model result indicates that baroclinic CTWs excited by the ring–topography interaction are responsible for the episodically intensified subsurface along-channel inflow, which carries more slope water into the GoM. A WCR that impinges onto the shelf edge to the northeast of the Northeast Channel tends to generate stronger CTWs and cause stronger enhancement of the slope water intrusion into the GoM.
    Description: This study is supported by the National Science Foundation through Grant OCE-1634965.
    Keywords: Continental shelf/slope ; Channel flows ; Mesoscale processes ; In situ oceanic observations ; Satellite observations ; Numerical analysis/modeling
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2023-02-17
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of the Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 39(10), (2022): 1525–1539, https://doi.org/10.1175/jtech-d-21-0186.1.
    Description: The static and dynamic performances of the RBRargo3 are investigated using a combination of laboratory-based and in situ datasets from floats deployed as part of an Argo pilot program. Temperature and pressure measurements compare well to co-located reference data acquired from shipboard CTDs. Static accuracy of salinity measurements is significantly improved using 1) a time lag for temperature, 2) a quadratic pressure dependence, and 3) a unit-based calibration for each RBRargo3 over its full pressure range. Long-term deployments show no significant drift in the RBRargo3 accuracy. The dynamic response of the RBRargo3 demonstrates the presence of two different adjustment time scales: a long-term adjustment O(120) s, driven by the temperature difference between the interior of the conductivity cell and the water, and a short-term adjustment O(5–10) s, associated to the initial exchange of heat between the water and the inner ceramic. Corrections for these effects, including dependence on profiling speed, are developed.
    Keywords: Data processing/distribution ; In situ oceanic observations ; Profilers ; Oceanic
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2023-02-01
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 52(8), (2022): 1927-1943, https://doi.org/10.1175/jpo-d-21-0124.1.
    Description: The Galápagos Archipelago lies on the equator in the path of the eastward flowing Pacific Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC). When the EUC reaches the archipelago, it upwells and bifurcates into a north and south branch around the archipelago at a latitude determined by topography. Since the Coriolis parameter (f) equals zero at the equator, strong velocity gradients associated with the EUC can result in Ertel potential vorticity (Q) having sign opposite that of planetary vorticity near the equator. Observations collected by underwater gliders deployed just west of the Galápagos Archipelago during 2013–16 are used to estimate Q and to diagnose associated instabilities that may impact the Galápagos Cold Pool. Estimates of Q are qualitatively conserved along streamlines, consistent with the 2.5-layer, inertial model of the EUC by Pedlosky. The Q with sign opposite of f is advected south of the Galápagos Archipelago when the EUC core is located south of the bifurcation latitude. The horizontal gradient of Q suggests that the region between 2°S and 2°N above 100 m is barotropically unstable, while limited regions are baroclinically unstable. Conditions conducive to symmetric instability are observed between the EUC core and the equator and within the southern branch of the undercurrent. Using 2-month and 3-yr averages, e-folding time scales are 2–11 days, suggesting that symmetric instability can persist on those time scales.
    Description: This work was supported by the National Science Foundation (Grants OCE-1232971 and OCE-1233282), the NASA Earth and Space Science Fellowship Program (Grant 80NSSC17K0443), and the Global Ocean Monitoring and Observing Program of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NA13OAR4830216). Color maps are from Thyng et al. (2016).
    Description: 2023-02-01
    Keywords: Currents ; In situ oceanic observations ; Instability ; Mixing ; Ocean dynamics ; Pacific Ocean ; Potential vorticity ; Tropics
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 11
    Publication Date: 2023-02-01
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of the Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 39(8), (2022): 1183-1198, https://doi.org/10.1175/jtech-d-21-0068.1.
    Description: Horizontal kinematic properties, such as vorticity, divergence, and lateral strain rate, are estimated from drifter clusters using three approaches. At submesoscale horizontal length scales O(1–10)km, kinematic properties become as large as planetary vorticity f, but challenging to observe because they evolve on short time scales O(hourstodays). By simulating surface drifters in a model flow field, we quantify the sources of uncertainty in the kinematic property calculations due to the deformation of cluster shape. Uncertainties arise primarily due to (i) violation of the linear estimation methods and (ii) aliasing of unresolved scales. Systematic uncertainties (iii) due to GPS errors, are secondary but can become as large as (i) and (ii) when aspect ratios are small. Ideal cluster parameters (number of drifters, length scale, and aspect ratio) are determined and error functions estimated empirically and theoretically. The most robust method—a two-dimensional, linear least squares fit—is applied to the first few days of a drifter dataset from the Bay of Bengal. Application of the length scale and aspect-ratio criteria minimizes errors (i) and (ii), and reduces the total number of clusters and so computational cost. The drifter-estimated kinematic properties map out a cyclonic mesoscale eddy with a surface, submesoscale fronts at its perimeter. Our analyses suggest methodological guidance for computing the two-dimensional kinematic properties in submesoscale flows, given the recently increasing quantity and quality of drifter observations, while also highlighting challenges and limitations.
    Description: This research was supported by the Office of Naval Research (ONR) Departmental Research Initiative ASIRI under Grant N00014-13-1-0451 (SE and AM) and Grant N00014-13-1-0477 (VH and LC). The authors thank the captain and crew of the R/V Roger Revelle, and Andrew Lucas with the Multiscale Ocean Dynamics group at the Scripps Institution for Oceanography for providing the FastCTD data collected in 2015, which was supported by ONR Grant N00014-13-1-0489, as well as Eric D’Asaro for helpful discussions and Lance Braasch for assistance with the drifter dataset. AM and SE further thank NSF (Grant OCE-I434788) and ONR (Grant N00014-16-1-2470) for support. VH and LC were additionally supported by ONR Grants N00014-15-1-2286, N00014-14-1-0183, N00014-19-1-26-91 and NOAA Global Drifter Program (GDP) Grant NA15OAR4320071.
    Description: 2023-02-01
    Keywords: Indian Ocean ; Eddies ; Frontogenesis/frontolysis ; Fronts ; Lagrangian circulation/transport ; Ocean circulation ; Ocean dynamics
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  • 12
    Publication Date: 2023-02-01
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 35(17), (2022): 5465-5482, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-21-0671.1.
    Description: Understanding the contribution of ocean circulation to glacial–interglacial climate change is a major focus of paleoceanography. Specifically, many have tried to determine whether the volumes and depths of Antarctic- and North Atlantic–sourced waters in the deep ocean changed at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ∼22–18 kyr BP) when atmospheric pCO2 concentrations were 100 ppm lower than the preindustrial. Measurements of sedimentary geochemical proxies are the primary way that these deep ocean structural changes have been reconstructed. However, the main proxies used to reconstruct LGM Atlantic water mass geometry provide conflicting results as to whether North Atlantic–sourced waters shoaled during the LGM. Despite this, a number of idealized modeling studies have been advanced to describe the physical processes resulting in shoaled North Atlantic waters. This paper aims to critically assess the approaches used to determine LGM Atlantic circulation geometry and lay out best practices for future work. We first compile existing proxy data and paleoclimate model output to deduce the processes responsible for setting the ocean distributions of geochemical proxies in the LGM Atlantic Ocean. We highlight how small-scale mixing processes in the ocean interior can decouple tracer distributions from the large-scale circulation, complicating the straightforward interpretation of geochemical tracers as proxies for water mass structure. Finally, we outline promising paths toward ascertaining the LGM circulation structure more clearly and deeply.
    Description: S.K.H. was supported by the Investment in Science Fund at WHOI and the John E. and Anne W. Sawyer Endowed Fund in Support of Scientific Staff. F.J.P. was supported by a Stanback Postdoctoral Fellowship at Caltech.
    Description: 2023-02-01
    Keywords: Diapycnal mixing ; Meridional overturning circulation ; Ocean circulation
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  • 13
    Publication Date: 2023-04-26
    Description: Mechanisms behind the phenomenon of Arctic amplification are widely discussed. To contribute to this debate, the (AC)3 project was established in 2016 (www.ac3-tr.de/). It comprises modeling and data analysis efforts as well as observational elements. The project has assembled a wealth of ground-based, airborne, shipborne, and satellite data of physical, chemical, and meteorological properties of the Arctic atmosphere, cryosphere, and upper ocean that are available for the Arctic climate research community. Short-term changes and indications of long-term trends in Arctic climate parameters have been detected using existing and new data. For example, a distinct atmospheric moistening, an increase of regional storm activities, an amplified winter warming in the Svalbard and North Pole regions, and a decrease of sea ice thickness in the Fram Strait and of snow depth on sea ice have been identified. A positive trend of tropospheric bromine monoxide (BrO) column densities during polar spring was verified. Local marine/biogenic sources for cloud condensation nuclei and ice nucleating particles were found. Atmospheric–ocean and radiative transfer models were advanced by applying new parameterizations of surface albedo, cloud droplet activation, convective plumes and related processes over leads, and turbulent transfer coefficients for stable surface layers. Four modes of the surface radiative energy budget were explored and reproduced by simulations. To advance the future synthesis of the results, cross-cutting activities are being developed aiming to answer key questions in four focus areas: lapse rate feedback, surface processes, Arctic mixed-phase clouds, and airmass transport and transformation.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 14
    Publication Date: 2023-08-29
    Description: This study focuses on the changes in diet and mobility of people buried in the La Sassa cave (Latium, Central Italy) during the Copper and Bronze Ages to contribute to the understanding of the complex contemporary population dynamics in Central Italy. To that purpose, carbon and nitrogen stable isotope analyses, strontium isotope analyses, and FT-IR evaluations were performed on human and faunal remains from this cave. The stable isotope analyses evidence a slight shift in diet between Copper and Bronze Age individuals, which becomes prominent in an individual, dating from a late phase, when the cave was mainly used as a cultic shelter. This diachronic study documents an increased dietary variability due to the introduction of novel resources in these protohistoric societies, possibly related to the southward spread of northern human groups into Central Italy. This contact between different cultures is also testified by the pottery typology found in the cave. The latter shows an increase in cultural intermingling starting during the beginning of the middle Bronze Age. The local mobility during this phase likely involved multiple communities scattered throughout an area of a few kilometers around the cave, which used the latter as a burial site both in the Copper and Bronze ages.
    Description: Published
    Description: e0288637
    Description: 6A. Geochimica per l'ambiente e geologia medica
    Description: 6SR VULCANI – Servizi e ricerca per la società
    Description: 7SR AMBIENTE – Servizi e ricerca per la società
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: La Sassa cave (Central Italy) ; population dynamics ; nitrogen isotope ; strontium isotope
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 15
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, 37(6), pp. 2059-2080, ISSN: 0894-8755
    Publication Date: 2024-04-22
    Description: Heat stress is projected to intensify with global warming, causing significant socioeconomic impacts and threatening human health. Wet-bulb temperature (WBT), which combines temperature and humidity effects, is a useful indicator for assessing regional and global heat stress variability and trends. However, the variations of European WBT and their underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Using observations and reanalysis datasets, we demonstrate a remarkable warming of summer WBT during the period 1958–2021 over Europe. Specifically, the European summer WBT has increased by over 1.08C in the past 64 years. We find that the increase in European summer WBT is driven by both near-surface warming temperatures and increasing atmospheric moisture content. We identify four dominant modes of European summer WBT variability and investigate their linkage with the large-scale atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature anomalies. The first two leading modes of the European WBT variability exhibit prominent interdecadal to long-term variations, mainly driven by a circumglobal wave train and concurrent sea surface temperature variations. The last two leading modes of European WBT variability mainly show interannual variations, indicating a direct and rapid response to large-scale atmospheric dynamics and nearby sea surface temperature variations. Further analysis shows the role of global warming and changes in midlatitude circulations in the variations of summer WBT. Our findings can enhance the understanding of plausible drivers of heat stress in Europe and provide valuable insights for regional decision-makers and climate adaptation planning.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 16
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Physical Oceanography, American Meteorological Society, 54(4), pp. 1003-1018, ISSN: 0022-3670
    Publication Date: 2024-04-25
    Description: Coastal upwelling, driven by alongshore winds and characterized by cold sea surface temperatures and high upper-ocean nutrient content, is an important physical process sustaining some of the oceans’ most productive ecosystems. To fully understand the ocean properties in eastern boundary upwelling systems, it is important to consider the depth of the source waters being upwelled, as it affects both the SST and the transport of nutrients toward the surface. Here, we construct an upwelling source depth distribution for parcels at the surface in the upwelling zone. We do so using passive tracers forced at the domain boundary for every model depth level to quantify their contributions to the upwelled waters. We test the dependence of this distribution on the strength of the wind stress and stratification using high-resolution regional ocean simulations of an idealized coastal upwelling system. We also present an efficient method for estimating the mean upwelling source depth. Furthermore, we show that the standard deviation of the upwelling source depth distribution increases with increasing wind stress and decreases with increasing stratification. These results can be applied to better understand and predict how coastal upwelling sites and their surface properties have and will change in past and future climates.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 17
    Publication Date: 2024-05-29
    Description: NORP-SORP Workshop on Polar Fresh Water: Sources, Pathways and Impacts of Freshwater in Northern and Southern Polar Oceans and Seas (SPICE-UP) What: Up to 60 participants at a time and more than twice as many registrants in total from 20 nations and across experience levels met to discuss the current status of research on freshwater in both polar regions, future directions, and synergies between the Arctic and Southern Ocean research communities When: 19–21 September 2022 Where: Online
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 18
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, American Meteorological Society, 104(9), pp. s1-s10, ISSN: 0003-0007
    Publication Date: 2024-05-29
    Description: 〈jats:title〉Abstract〈/jats:title〉 〈jats:p〉—J. BLUNDEN, T. BOYER, AND E. BARTOW-GILLIES〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉Earth’s global climate system is vast, complex, and intricately interrelated. Many areas are influenced by global-scale phenomena, including the “triple dip” La Niña conditions that prevailed in the eastern Pacific Ocean nearly continuously from mid-2020 through all of 2022; by regional phenomena such as the positive winter and summer North Atlantic Oscillation that impacted weather in parts the Northern Hemisphere and the negative Indian Ocean dipole that impacted weather in parts of the Southern Hemisphere; and by more localized systems such as high-pressure heat domes that caused extreme heat in different areas of the world. Underlying all these natural short-term variabilities are long-term climate trends due to continuous increases since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in the atmospheric concentrations of Earth’s major greenhouse gases.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉In 2022, the annual global average carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere rose to 417.1±0.1 ppm, which is 50% greater than the pre-industrial level. Global mean tropospheric methane abundance was 165% higher than its pre-industrial level, and nitrous oxide was 24% higher. All three gases set new record-high atmospheric concentration levels in 2022.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉Sea-surface temperature patterns in the tropical Pacific characteristic of La Niña and attendant atmospheric patterns tend to mitigate atmospheric heat gain at the global scale, but the annual global surface temperature across land and oceans was still among the six highest in records dating as far back as the mid-1800s. It was the warmest La Niña year on record. Many areas observed record or near-record heat. Europe as a whole observed its second-warmest year on record, with sixteen individual countries observing record warmth at the national scale. Records were shattered across the continent during the summer months as heatwaves plagued the region. On 18 July, 104 stations in France broke their all-time records. One day later, England recorded a temperature of 40°C for the first time ever. China experienced its second-warmest year and warmest summer on record. In the Southern Hemisphere, the average temperature across New Zealand reached a record high for the second year in a row. While Australia’s annual temperature was slightly below the 1991–2020 average, Onslow Airport in Western Australia reached 50.7°C on 13 January, equaling Australia's highest temperature on record.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉While fewer in number and locations than record-high temperatures, record cold was also observed during the year. Southern Africa had its coldest August on record, with minimum temperatures as much as 5°C below normal over Angola, western Zambia, and northern Namibia. Cold outbreaks in the first half of December led to many record-low daily minimum temperature records in eastern Australia.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉The effects of rising temperatures and extreme heat were apparent across the Northern Hemisphere, where snow-cover extent by June 2022 was the third smallest in the 56-year record, and the seasonal duration of lake ice cover was the fourth shortest since 1980. More frequent and intense heatwaves contributed to the second-greatest average mass balance loss for Alpine glaciers around the world since the start of the record in 1970. Glaciers in the Swiss Alps lost a record 6% of their volume. In South America, the combination of drought and heat left many central Andean glaciers snow free by mid-summer in early 2022; glacial ice has a much lower albedo than snow, leading to accelerated heating of the glacier. Across the global cryosphere, permafrost temperatures continued to reach record highs at many high-latitude and mountain locations.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉In the high northern latitudes, the annual surface-air temperature across the Arctic was the fifth highest in the 123-year record. The seasonal Arctic minimum sea-ice extent, typically reached in September, was the 11th-smallest in the 43-year record; however, the amount of multiyear ice—ice that survives at least one summer melt season—remaining in the Arctic continued to decline. Since 2012, the Arctic has been nearly devoid of ice more than four years old.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉In Antarctica, an unusually large amount of snow and ice fell over the continent in 2022 due to several landfalling atmospheric rivers, which contributed to the highest annual surface mass balance, 15% to 16% above the 1991–2020 normal, since the start of two reanalyses records dating to 1980. It was the second-warmest year on record for all five of the long-term staffed weather stations on the Antarctic Peninsula. In East Antarctica, a heatwave event led to a new all-time record-high temperature of −9.4°C—44°C above the March average—on 18 March at Dome C. This was followed by the collapse of the critically unstable Conger Ice Shelf. More than 100 daily low sea-ice extent and sea-ice area records were set in 2022, including two new all-time annual record lows in net sea-ice extent and area in February.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉Across the world’s oceans, global mean sea level was record high for the 11th consecutive year, reaching 101.2 mm above the 1993 average when satellite altimetry measurements began, an increase of 3.3±0.7 over 2021. Globally-averaged ocean heat content was also record high in 2022, while the global sea-surface temperature was the sixth highest on record, equal with 2018. Approximately 58% of the ocean surface experienced at least one marine heatwave in 2022. In the Bay of Plenty, New Zealand’s longest continuous marine heatwave was recorded.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉A total of 85 named tropical storms were observed during the Northern and Southern Hemisphere storm seasons, close to the 1991–2020 average of 87. There were three Category 5 tropical cyclones across the globe—two in the western North Pacific and one in the North Atlantic. This was the fewest Category 5 storms globally since 2017. Globally, the accumulated cyclone energy was the lowest since reliable records began in 1981. Regardless, some storms caused massive damage. In the North Atlantic, Hurricane Fiona became the most intense and most destructive tropical or post-tropical cyclone in Atlantic Canada’s history, while major Hurricane Ian killed more than 100 people and became the third costliest disaster in the United States, causing damage estimated at $113 billion U.S. dollars. In the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Batsirai dropped 2044 mm of rain at Commerson Crater in Réunion. The storm also impacted Madagascar, where 121 fatalities were reported.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉As is typical, some areas around the world were notably dry in 2022 and some were notably wet. In August, record high areas of land across the globe (6.2%) were experiencing extreme drought. Overall, 29% of land experienced moderate or worse categories of drought during the year. The largest drought footprint in the contiguous United States since 2012 (63%) was observed in late October. The record-breaking megadrought of central Chile continued in its 13th consecutive year, and 80-year record-low river levels in northern Argentina and Paraguay disrupted fluvial transport. In China, the Yangtze River reached record-low values. Much of equatorial eastern Africa had five consecutive below-normal rainy seasons by the end of 2022, with some areas receiving record-low precipitation totals for the year. This ongoing 2.5-year drought is the most extensive and persistent drought event in decades, and led to crop failure, millions of livestock deaths, water scarcity, and inflated prices for staple food items.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉In South Asia, Pakistan received around three times its normal volume of monsoon precipitation in August, with some regions receiving up to eight times their expected monthly totals. Resulting floods affected over 30 million people, caused over 1700 fatalities, led to major crop and property losses, and was recorded as one of the world’s costliest natural disasters of all time. Near Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Petrópolis received 530 mm in 24 hours on 15 February, about 2.5 times the monthly February average, leading to the worst disaster in the city since 1931 with over 230 fatalities.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉On 14–15 January, the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai submarine volcano in the South Pacific erupted multiple times. The injection of water into the atmosphere was unprecedented in both magnitude—far exceeding any previous values in the 17-year satellite record—and altitude as it penetrated into the mesosphere. The amount of water injected into the stratosphere is estimated to be 146±5 Terragrams, or ∼10% of the total amount in the stratosphere. It may take several years for the water plume to dissipate, and it is currently unknown whether this eruption will have any long-term climate effect.〈/jats:p〉
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 19
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, American Meteorological Society, 104(9), pp. s271-s321, ISSN: 0003-0007
    Publication Date: 2024-05-29
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 20
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, 37(8), pp. 2505-2518, ISSN: 0894-8755
    Publication Date: 2024-06-21
    Description: A fundamental statistic of climate variability is its spatiotemporal correlation function. Its complex structure can be concisely summarized by a frequency-dependent measure of the effective spatial degrees of freedom (ESDOF). Here we present, for the first time, frequency-dependent ESDOF estimates of global natural surface temperature variability from purely instrumental measurements, using the HadCRUT4 dataset (1850-2014). The approach is based on a newly developed method for estimating the frequency-dependent spatial correlation function from gappy data fields. Results reveal a multicomponent structure of the spatial correlation function, including a large-amplitude short-distance component (with weak time scale dependence) and a small-amplitude long-distance component (with increasing relative amplitude toward the longer time scales). Two frequency-dependent ESDOF measures are applied, each responding mainly to either of the two components. Both measures exhibit a significant ESDOF reduction from monthly to multidecadal time scales, implying an increase of the effective spatial scale of natural surface temperature fluctuations. Moreover, it is found that a good approximation to the global number of equally spaced samples needed to estimate the variance of global mean temperature is given, at any frequency, by the greater one of the two ESDOF measures, decreasing from ;130 at monthly to ;30 at multidecadal time scales. Finally, the multicomponent structure of the correlation function together with the detected ESDOF scaling properties indicate that the ESDOF reduction toward the longer time scales cannot be explained simply by diffusion acting on stochastically driven anomalies, as it might be suggested f rom simple stochastic-diffusive energy balance models.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 21
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, 34(18), pp. 7373-7388, ISSN: 0894-8755
    Publication Date: 2024-06-21
    Description: Climate variability occurs over wide ranges of spatial and temporal scales. It exhibits a complex spatial covariance structure, which depends on geographic location (e.g., tropics vs extratropics) and also consists of a superposition of (i) components with gradually decaying positive correlation functions and (ii) teleconnections that often involve anticorrelations. In addition, there are indications that the spatial covariance structure depends on frequency. Thus, a comprehensive assessment of the spatiotemporal covariance structure of climate variability would require an extensive set of statistical diagnostics. Therefore, it is often desirable to characterize the covariance structure by a simple summarizing metric that is easy to compute from datasets. Such summarizing metrics are useful, for example, in the context of comparisons between climate models or between models and observations. Here we introduce a frequency-dependent version of a simple measure of the effective spatial degrees of freedom. The measure is based on the temporal variance of the global average of some climate variable, and its novel aspect consists in its frequency dependence. We also provide a clear geometric interpretation of the measure. Its easy applicability is demonstrated using near-surface temperature and precipitation fields obtained from a paleoclimate model simulation. This application reveals a distinct scaling behavior of the spatial degrees of freedom as a function of frequency, ranging from monthly to millennial scales.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 22
    Publication Date: 2023-02-08
    Description: Parental care elevates reproductive success by allocating resources into the upbringing of the offspring. However, it also imposes strong costs for the care-giving parent and can foster sexual dimorphism. Trade-offs between the reproductive system and the immune system may result in differential immunological capacities between the care-providing and the non-care-providing parent. Usually, providing care is restricted to the female sex making it impossible to study a sex-independent influence of parental investment on sexual immune dimorphism. The decoupling of sex-dependent parental investment and their influences on the parental immunological capacity, however, is possible in syngnathids, which evolved the unique male pregnancy on a gradient ranging from a simple carrying of eggs on the trunk (Nerophinae, low paternal investment) to full internal pregnancy (Syngnathus, high paternal investment). In this study, we compared candidate gene expression between females and males of different gravity stages in three species of syngnathids (Syngnathus typhle, Syngnathus rostellatus and Nerophis ophidion) with different male pregnancy intensities to determine how parental investment influences sexual immune dimorphism. While our data failed to detect sexual immune dimorphism in the subset of candidate genes assessed, we show a parental care specific resource-allocation trade-off between investment into pregnancy and immune defense when parental care is provided.
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  • 23
    Publication Date: 2023-02-08
    Description: Litter and plastic pollution in the marine environment is of major concern when considering the health of ocean ecosystems, and have become an important focus of ocean research during recent years. There is still significant uncertainty surrounding the distribution and impact of marine plastic litter on ocean ecosystems, and in particular on the nano- and microplastic fractions that are difficult to observe and may be harmful to marine organisms. Current estimates of ocean plastic concentrations only account for a small fraction of the approximated 8 million tons of plastic litter entering the oceans on an annual basis. Here, we present the distribution of 100–500 μm microplastic particles within the ocean mixed layer, covering a significant fraction of the ocean, in a near-synoptic survey. During The Ocean Race 2017/2018 edition (formerly known as Volvo Ocean Race), two yachts served as ships of opportunity that regularly took samples of microplastics on a regular schedule during their circumnavigation. This effort resulted in information on microplastic distribution along the race track in the ocean’s upper, well-mixed, layer. We found concentrations ranging from 0–349 particles per cubic meter, but with large spatial variability. There was a tendency toward higher concentrations off south-western Europe and in the southwest Pacific, and indications of long-range transport of microplastic with major ocean currents.
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  • 24
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: Sinking marine aggregates have been studied for a long time to understand their role in carbon sequestration. Traditionally, sinking speed and respiration rates have been treated as independent variables, but two recent papers suggest that there is a connection albeit in contrasting directions. Here we collected recently formed (〈2 days old) aggregates from sediment traps mounted underneath mesocosms during two different experiments. The mesocosms were moored off Gran Canaria, Spain (~ 27.9 N; 15.4 E) in a coastal, sub-tropical and oligotrophic ecosystem. We determined the respiration rates of organisms (mainly heterotrophic prokaryotes) attached to aggregates sinking at different velocities. The average respiration rate of fast sinking aggregates (〉100 m d-1) was 0.12 d-1 ± 0.08 d-1 (SD). Slower sinking aggregates (〈50 m d-1) had on average higher (p 〈0.001) and more variable respiration rates (average 0.31 d-1 ± 0.16 d-1, SD). There was evidence that slower sinking aggregates had higher porosity than fast sinking aggregates, and we hypothesize that higher porosity increase the settlement area for bacteria and the respiration rate. These findings provide insights into the efficiency of the biological carbon pump and help resolve the apparent discrepancy in the recent studies of the correlation between respiration and sinking speed. © 2023 Spilling et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
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  • 25
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: Sponges produce distinct fatty acids (FAs) that (potentially) can be used as chemotaxonomic and ecological biomarkers to study endosymbiont-host interactions and the functional ecology of sponges. Here, we present FA profiles of five common habitat-building deep-sea sponges (class Demospongiae, order Tetractinellida), which are classified as high microbial abundance (HMA) species. Geodia hentscheli, G. parva, G. atlantica, G. barretti, and Stelletta rhaphidiophora were collected from boreal and Arctic sponge grounds in the North-Atlantic Ocean. Bacterial FAs dominated in all five species and particularly isomeric mixtures of mid-chain branched FAs (MBFAs, 8- and 9-Me-C16:0 and 10- and 11-Me-C18:0) were found in high abundance (together ≥ 20% of total FAs) aside more common bacterial markers. In addition, the sponges produced long-chain linear, mid- and a(i)-branched unsaturated FAs (LCFAs) with a chain length of 24‒28 C atoms and had predominantly the typical Δ5,9 unsaturation, although the Δ9,19 and (yet undescribed) Δ11,21 unsaturations were also identified. G. parva and S. rhaphidiophora each produced distinct LCFAs, while G. atlantica, G. barretti, and G. hentscheli produced similar LCFAs, but in different ratios. The different bacterial precursors varied in carbon isotopic composition (δ13C), with MBFAs being more enriched compared to other bacterial (linear and a(i)-branched) FAs. We propose biosynthetic pathways for different LCFAs from their bacterial precursors, that are consistent with small isotopic differences found in LCFAs. Indeed, FA profiles of deep-sea sponges can serve as chemotaxonomic markers and support the concept that sponges acquire building blocks from their endosymbiotic bacteria.
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  • 26
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: Coexistence of fish populations (= stocks) of the same species is a common phenomenon. In the Baltic Sea, two genetically divergent stocks of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), Western Baltic cod (WBC) and Eastern Baltic cod (EBC), coexist in the Arkona Sea. Although the relative proportions of WBC and EBC in this area are considered in the current stock assessments, the mixing dynamics and ecological mechanisms underlying coexistence are not well understood. In this study, a genetically validated otolith shape analysis was used to develop the most comprehensive time series of annual stock mixing data (1977–2019) for WBC and EBC. Spatio-temporal mixing analysis confirmed that the two stocks coexist in the Arkona Sea, albeit with fluctuating mixing proportions over the 43-year observation period. Depth-stratified analysis revealed a strong correlation between capture depth and stock mixing patterns, with high proportions of WBC in shallower waters (48–61% in 〈20m) and increasing proportions of EBC in deeper waters (50–86% in 40-70m). Consistent depth-specific mixing patterns indicate stable differences in depth distribution and habitat use of WBC and EBC that may thus underlie the long-term coexistence of the two stocks in the Arkona Sea. These differences were also reflected in significantly different proportions of WBC and EBC in fisheries applying passive gears in shallower waters (more WBC) and active gears in deeper waters (more EBC). This highlights the potential for fishing gear-specific exploitation of different stocks, and calls for stronger consideration of capture depth and gear type in stock assessments. This novel evidence provides the basis for improved approaches to research, monitoring and management of Baltic cod stocks.
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  • 27
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: Settlement crises in ancient cultures of Western Asia are commonly thought to be caused by climatic events such as severe droughts. However, the insufficient climate proxy situation in this region challenges the inference of clear relationships between climate and settlement dynamics. We investigate the Holocene climatic changes on the Varamin Plain in the context of the climatic history of Western Central Asia by using a transient comprehensive Earth System Model simulation (8 ka BP to pre-industrial), a high-resolution regional snapshot simulation and a synthesis of pollen-based climate reconstructions. In line with the reconstructions, the models reveal only slightly varying mean climatic conditions on the Varamin Plain but indicate substantial changes in seasonality during the Holocene. Increased precipitation during spring, combined with lower temperature and potentially stronger snow accumulation on the upstream Alborz mountains may have led to an increased water supply on the alluvial fan during the vegetation period and thus to more favourable conditions for agricultural production during the Mid-Holocene compared to modern times. According to the model, dry periods on the Central Iranian Plateau are related to particularly weak Westerly winds, fostering the subsidence in the mid-troposphere and hampering precipitation over the region. The model reveals that dry periods have spatially heterogenous manifestations, thus explaining why they do not appear in all proxy records in the wider study region. In fact, the climatic signal may depend on local environmental conditions. The interaction of the topography with the atmospheric circulation leads to additional spatial heterogeneity. Although our results provide several indications for a connection between climate and settlement dynamics, the small overall changes in moisture call into question whether climate is the main driver for settlement discontinuities on the Central Iranian Plateau. To shed further light on this issue, more high-resolution long-term proxy records are needed.
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  • 28
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: Using transient climate forcing based on simulations from the Alfred Wegener Institute Earth System Model (AWI-ESM), we simulate the evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) from the last interglacial (125 ka, kiloyear before present) to 2100 AD with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). The impact of paleoclimate, especially Holocene climate, on the present and future evolution of the GrIS is explored. Our simulations of the past show close agreement with reconstructions with respect to the recent timing of the peaks in ice volume and the climate of Greenland. The maximum and minimum ice volume at around 18–17 ka and 6–5 ka lag the respective extremes in climate by several thousand years, implying that the ice volume response of the GrIS strongly lags climatic changes. Given that Greenland’s climate was getting colder from the Holocene Thermal Maximum (i.e., 8 ka) to the Pre-Industrial era, our simulation implies that the GrIS experienced growth from the mid-Holocene to the industrial era. Due to this background trend, the GrIS still gains mass until the second half of the 20th century, even though anthropogenic warming begins around 1850 AD. This is also in agreement with observational evidence showing mass loss of the GrIS does not begin earlier than the late 20th century. Our results highlight that the present evolution of the GrIS is not only controlled by the recent climate changes, but is also affected by paleoclimate, especially the relatively warm Holocene climate. We propose that the GrIS was not in equilibrium throughout the entire Holocene and that the slow response to Holocene climate needs to be represented in ice sheet simulations in order to predict ice mass loss, and therefore sea level rise, accurately.
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  • 29
    Publication Date: 2024-03-21
    Description: Acesta excavata (Fabricius, 1779) is a slow growing bivalve from the Limidae family and is often found associated with cold-water coral reefs along the European continental margin. Here we present the compositional variability of frequently used proxy elemental ratios (Mg/Ca, Sr/Ca, Na/Ca) measured by laser-ablation mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) and compare it to in-situ recorded instrumental seawater parameters such as temperature and salinity. Shell Mg/Ca measured in the fibrous calcitic shell section was overall not correlated with seawater temperature or salinity; however, some samples show significant correlations with temperature with a sensitivity that was found to be unusually high in comparison to other marine organisms. Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca measured in the fibrous calcitic shell section display significant negative correlations with the linear extension rate of the shell, which indicates strong vital effects in these bivalves. Multiple linear regression analysis indicates that up to 79% of elemental variability is explicable with temperature and salinity as independent predictor values. Yet, the overall results clearly show that the application of Element/Ca (E/Ca) ratios in these bivalves to reconstruct past changes in temperature and salinity is likely to be complicated due to strong vital effects and the effects of organic material embedded in the shell. Therefore, we suggest to apply additional techniques, such as clumped isotopes, in order to exactly determine and quantify the underlying vital effects and possibly account for these. We found differences in the chemical composition between the two calcitic shell layers that are possibly explainable through differences of the crystal morphology. Sr/Ca ratios also appear to be partly controlled by the amount of magnesium, because the small magnesium ions bend the crystal lattice which increases the space for strontium incorporation. Oxidative cleaning with H2O2 did not significantly change the Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca composition of the shell. Na/Ca ratios decreased after the oxidative cleaning, which is most likely a leaching effect and not caused by the removal of organic matter.
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  • 30
  • 31
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: Aim Combined antiretroviral treatment (cART) traditionally consists of three antiretroviral medications, while two-drug regimens (2DR), historically used infrequently, recently been suggested to be non-inferior to three-drug regimens, is emerging as a potential treatment option and is currently a recommended option for treatment initiation in many guidelines. Purpose Characterize the indications and clinical efficacy of 2DR use at a real-life setting in a nation-wide survey. Methods A cross-sectional survey of Israeli patients treated by 2DR until July 2019, included demographic, immunologic, virologic, genotypic and biochemical/metabolic parameters at diagnosis, ART initiation, 2DR initiation and following 24, 48, 96 and 144 weeks of 2DR treatment. Results 176 patients were included in the study. In contrast to historical data implicating ART resistance and adverse effects as the major reasons leading to 2DR switching, treatment simplification was the main reason leading to 2DR treatment in 2019. 2DR that included INSTI and PI were more commonly used in cases of drug resistance, while a combination of INSTI and NNRTI was used in all other 2DR indications. A switch to 2DR induced a mean CD4 T cell increase from 599 cells/μl at treatment initiation to 680 cells/μl at 96 weeks of treatment p
    Electronic ISSN: 1932-6203
    Topics: Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
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  • 32
    Publication Date: 2021-10-28
    Print ISSN: 0021-8979
    Electronic ISSN: 1089-7550
    Topics: Physics
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  • 33
    Publication Date: 2021-10-01
    Print ISSN: 1070-6631
    Electronic ISSN: 1089-7666
    Topics: Physics
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  • 34
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: Historically, the database search algorithms have been the de facto standard for inferring peptides from mass spectrometry (MS) data. Database search algorithms deduce peptides by transforming theoretical peptides into theoretical spectra and matching them to the experimental spectra. Heuristic similarity-scoring functions are used to match an experimental spectrum to a theoretical spectrum. However, the heuristic nature of the scoring functions and the simple transformation of the peptides into theoretical spectra, along with noisy mass spectra for the less abundant peptides, can introduce a cascade of inaccuracies. In this paper, we design and implement a Deep Cross-Modal Similarity Network called SpeCollate, which overcomes these inaccuracies by learning the similarity function between experimental spectra and peptides directly from the labeled MS data. SpeCollate transforms spectra and peptides into a shared Euclidean subspace by learning fixed size embeddings for both. Our proposed deep-learning network trains on sextuplets of positive and negative examples coupled with our custom-designed SNAP-loss function. Online hardest negative mining is used to select the appropriate negative examples for optimal training performance. We use 4.8 million sextuplets obtained from the NIST and MassIVE peptide libraries to train the network and demonstrate that for closed search, SpeCollate is able to perform better than Crux and MSFragger in terms of the number of peptide-spectrum matches (PSMs) and unique peptides identified under 1% FDR for real-world data. SpeCollate also identifies a large number of peptides not reported by either Crux or MSFragger. To the best of our knowledge, our proposed SpeCollate is the first deep-learning network that can determine the cross-modal similarity between peptides and mass-spectra for MS-based proteomics. We believe SpeCollate is significant progress towards developing machine-learning solutions for MS-based omics data analysis. SpeCollate is available at https://deepspecs.github.io/.
    Electronic ISSN: 1932-6203
    Topics: Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
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  • 35
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: When pharmaceutical interventions are unavailable to deal with an epidemic outbreak, adequate management of communication strategies can be key to reduce the contagion risks. On the one hand, accessibility to trustworthy and timely information, whilst on the other, the adoption of preventive behaviors may be both crucial. However, despite the abundance of communication strategies, their effectiveness has been scarcely evaluated or merely circumscribed to the scrutiny of public affairs. To study the influence of communication strategies on the spreading dynamics of an infectious disease, we implemented a susceptible-exposed-infected-removed-dead (SEIRD) epidemiological model, using an agent-based approach. Agents in our systems can obtain information modulating their behavior from two sources: (i) through the local interaction with other neighboring agents and, (ii) from a central entity delivering information with a certain periodicity. In doing so, we highlight how global information delivered from a central entity can reduce the impact of an infectious disease and how informing even a small fraction of the population has a remarkable impact, when compared to not informing the population at all. Moreover, having a scheme of delivering daily messages makes a stark difference on the reduction of cases, compared to the other evaluated strategies, denoting that daily delivery of information produces the largest decrease in the number of cases. Furthermore, when the information spreading relies only on local interactions between agents, and no central entity takes actions along the dynamics, then the epidemic spreading is virtually independent of the initial amount of informed agents. On top of that, we found that local communication plays an important role in an intermediate regime where information coming from a central entity is scarce. As a whole, our results highlight the importance of proper communication strategies, both accurate and daily, to tackle epidemic outbreaks.
    Electronic ISSN: 1932-6203
    Topics: Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
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  • 36
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: Background Migrants are not routinely screened for hepatitis B virus (HBV), hepatitis C virus (HCV) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in the Netherlands. We estimated the prevalence and determined factors associated with HBV, HCV and/or HIV infections among undocumented migrants and uninsured legal residents. Methods In this cross-sectional study, undocumented migrants and uninsured legal residents were recruited at a non governmental organization (NGO), healthcare facility in the Netherlands and were invited to be tested for hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg), anti-hepatitis B core antibodies (anti-HBcAb), HCV-RNA, and anti-HIV antibodies or HIV antigen at a local laboratory. Results Of the 1376 patients invited, 784 (57%) participated. Participants originated from Africa (35%), Asia (30%) and North/South America (30%). 451/784 (58%) participants went to the laboratory for testing. Of participants 30% were HBV exposed (anti-HBcAb-positive), with 27% (n = 119/438, 95% CI 23.1% to 31.6%) having resolved HBV infection (HBsAg-negative) and 2.5% (n = 11/438, 95%CI 1.3% to 4.5%, 64% new infection) having chronic HBV infection (HBsAg-positive). Compared to HBV non-exposed, HBV exposed individuals were older (p = 0.034) and more often originated from Africa (p
    Electronic ISSN: 1932-6203
    Topics: Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
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  • 37
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: Introduction Sex-based clinical outcome differences in sickle cell disease (SCD) remain largely unknown despite evidence that female sex is associated with an increased lifespan. To better characterize sex-based differences in SCD, we assessed pain, treatment characteristics, laboratory measures and complications among males and females currently enrolled in the Sickle Cell Disease Implementation Consortium (SCDIC) registry. Methods The SCDIC consists of eight comprehensive SCD centers and one data coordinating center that received funding from the National Heart Lung and Blood Institute to improve outcomes for individuals with SCD. Eligibility criteria included: 15 to 45 years of age and a confirmed diagnosis of SCD. Self-report surveys were completed and data were also abstracted from the participants’ medical records. Results A total of 2,124 participants were included (mean age: 27.8 years; 56% female). The majority had hemoglobin SS SCD genotype. Females had worse reports of pain severity (mean (SD) T-score 51.6 (9.6) vs 49.3 (10), p
    Electronic ISSN: 1932-6203
    Topics: Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
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  • 38
    Publication Date: 2021-10-25
    Print ISSN: 0003-6951
    Electronic ISSN: 1077-3118
    Topics: Physics
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  • 39
    Publication Date: 2021-10-01
    Electronic ISSN: 2158-3226
    Topics: Physics
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  • 40
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: Despite the often emphasized importance of water awareness, and notwithstanding the fact that calls for increasing public awareness are becoming commonplace, most studies do not define the concept, let alone operationalise it into measurable units. This is, however, essential to measure and evaluate efforts related to water awareness such as public campaigns, customer communication and behavioural interventions. To address this gap, we conceptualise, operationalise and assess tap water awareness, hereby differentiating between cognitive awareness (head), affectional awareness (heart), and behavioural awareness (hands). In parallel, we also differentiate between tap water quality, quantity and system. By building on a variety of contemporary conceptual insights in literature and a series of expert interviews, an assessment framework is developed. A cohesive set of nine awareness components are identified and operationalised into a set of tangible questions which are put to the test in a large-scale online survey (n = 1003) in the Netherlands, applying both a traditional and modern segmentation approach based on four types of perspectives (‘quality & health concerned’, ‘aware & committed’, ‘egalitarian & solidary’, and ‘down to earth & confident’). Based on the analysis of the results of the first empirical application of our tap water awareness assessment framework, we conclude that—with a score 53.5 points out of 100—tap water awareness in the Netherlands shows ample room for improvement. Interestingly, most significant variations in awareness are generally not related to sociodemographic factors but rather apply to the four customer perspectives on drinking water that are based on people’s subjective views and preferences.
    Electronic ISSN: 1932-6203
    Topics: Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
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  • 41
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: Background High prevalence of tobacco smoking among young students remains a serious health concern given the positive association between smoking and NCDs. More recently, some studies also noted young smokers were more likely to get infected with COVID-19 compared to non-smokers. This study aims to assess the factors that influence smoking uptake among young students in Samoa. Findings from this study will provide valuable insight to policymakers and health authorities on policies and strategies to combat smoking among youth in Samoa and the Pacific Island Countries (PICs). Methods The 2017 Global Youth Tobacco Survey data of Samoa, available from the World Health Organization is used in the analysis. We use the multinominal logistic model to investigate the effects of socio-economic and demographics factors on young students’ uptake of smoking in Samoa. Result The main findings of this study indicate that sex, age, friendship, parental smoking, family discussion, outside influence, pocket money, and mother’s education are important determinants of tobacco smoking initiation among youths in Samoa. Conclusion Our findings contribute towards the evidence of the imperative health impact of friends, parents, and public smoking on students in Samoa. This warrants strategies that are effective in discouraging parents from smoking and implement measures that prevent smoking in public places. Moreover, educational efforts, particularly those that encourage more discussion at home settings on the harmful effects of smoking are strongly recommended. Parents are strongly encouraged to regularly monitor children’s spending behaviour.
    Electronic ISSN: 1932-6203
    Topics: Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
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  • 42
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: Reverse translation of polypeptide sequences to expressible mRNA constructs is a NP-hard combinatorial optimization problem. Each amino acid in the protein sequence can be represented by as many as six codons, and the process of selecting the combination that maximizes probability of expression is termed codon optimization. This work investigates the potential impact of leveraging quantum computing technology for codon optimization. A Quantum Annealer (QA) is compared to a standard genetic algorithm (GA) programmed with the same objective function. The QA is found to be competitive in identifying optimal solutions. The utility of gate-based systems is also evaluated using a simulator resulting in the finding that while current generations of devices lack the hardware requirements, in terms of both qubit count and connectivity, to solve realistic problems, future generation devices may be highly efficient.
    Electronic ISSN: 1932-6203
    Topics: Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
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  • 43
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: Surveillance of the SARS-CoV-2 variants including the quickly spreading mutants by rapid and near real-time sequencing of the viral genome provides an important tool for effective health policy decision making in the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Here we evaluated PCR-tiling of short (~400-bp) and long (~2 and ~2.5-kb) amplicons combined with nanopore sequencing on a MinION device for analysis of the SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences. Analysis of several sequencing runs demonstrated that using the long amplicon schemes outperforms the original protocol based on the 400-bp amplicons. It also illustrated common artefacts and problems associated with PCR-tiling approach, such as uneven genome coverage, variable fraction of discarded sequencing reads, including human and bacterial contamination, as well as the presence of reads derived from the viral sub-genomic RNAs.
    Electronic ISSN: 1932-6203
    Topics: Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
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  • 44
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: Background Measurement of health-related quality of life (HRQOL) of people with chronic illnesses has become extremely important as the mortality rates associated with such illnesses have decreased and survival rates have increased. Thereby, such measurements not only provide insights into physical, mental and social dimensions of patient’s health, but also allow monitoring of the results of interventions, complementing the traditional methods based on morbidity and mortality. Objective The present study was conducted to describe the HRQOL of patients suffering from Rheumatic Fever (RF) and Rheumatic Heart Disease (RHD), and to identify socio-demographic and clinical factors as predictors of HRQOL. Methodology A cross-sectional study was conducted to assess the HRQOL among 702 RF and RHD patients using EuroQol 5-dimensions 5-levels instrument (EQ-5D-5L), EuroQol Visual Analogue Scale and Time Trade off method. Mean EQ-5D-5L quality of life scores were calculated using EQ5D index value calculator across different stages of RF and RHD. Proportions of patients reporting problems in different attributes of EQ-5D-5L were calculated. The impact of socio-economic determinants on HRQOL was assessed. Results The mean EQ-5D-5L utility scores among RF, RHD and RHD with Congestive heart failure patients (CHF) were estimated as 0.952 [95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.929–0.975], 0.820 [95% CI: 0.799–0.842] and 0.800 [95% CI: 0.772–0.829] respectively. The most frequently reported problem among RF/RHD patients was pain/discomfort (33.8%) followed by difficulty in performing usual activities (23.9%) patients, mobility (22.7%) and anxiety/depression (22%). Patients with an annual income of less than 50,000 Indian National Rupees (INR) reported the highest EQ-5D-5L score of 0.872, followed by those in the income group of more than INR 200,000 (0.835), INR 50,000–100,000 (0.832) and INR 100,000–200,000 (0.828). Better HRQOL was reported by RHD patients (including RHD with CHF) who underwent balloon valvotomy (0.806) as compared to valve replacement surgery (0.645). Conclusion RF and RHD significantly impact the HRQOL of patients. Interventions aiming to improve HRQOL of RF/RHD patients should focus upon ameliorating pain and implementation of secondary prevention strategies for reducing the progression from ARF to RHD and prevention of RHD-related complications.
    Electronic ISSN: 1932-6203
    Topics: Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
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  • 45
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: We evaluated phytochemical composition, antibacterial, antifungal, anti-oxidant and cytotoxic properties of aqueous (water) and organic extracts (methanol, ethyl acetate and n-hexane) of Chenopodium glaucum. Highest phenolic content 45 mg gallic acid equivalents (GAE)/g d.w was found in aqueous extract followed by ethyl acetate (41mg GAE/g d.w) and methanol extract (34.46 mg GAE/g d.w). Antibacterial potential of aqueous and organic extracts of C. glaucum was examined against Acinetobacter baumannii, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Escherichia coli and Staphylococcus epidermidis. The aqueous, methanolic, ethyl acetate, and n-hexane extract showed antibacterial activity against A. baumannii, K. pneumoniae, E. coli and S. epidermidis. However, against A. baumannii significantly higher inhibition zone (19 mm and 18.96 mm respectively) was shown by ethyl acetate and methanol extracts. Aqueous extract possessed highest growth inhibition (11 mm) against E. coli. Aqueous, ethyl acetate and methanol extracts showed 9 mm, 10 mm, and 10.33 mm zone of inhibition against the K. pneumoniae. For antifungal activity, the extracts were less effective against Aspergillus niger but showed strong antifungal activity against Aspergillus flavus (A. flavus). The antioxidant activity was measured as DPPH (2, 2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl), H2O2 and ABTS (2, 2’-azino-bis (3-ethylbenzothiazoline-6-sulfonic acid) scavenging activity of free radicals. All the organic extracts of C. glaucum possessed ABTS, DPPH and H2O2 scavenging properties. The highest cytotoxic activity measured as half maximal inhibitory concentration (IC50) against human lungs carcinoma cells was recorded for methanolic (IC50 = 16 μg/mL) and n-hexane (IC50 = 25 μg/mL) extracts, respectively. The Gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC-MS) analysis showed 4 major and 26 minor compounds in n-hexane extract and 4 major and 7 minor compounds in methanol extract of the C. glaucum. It is concluded that aqueous and organic extracts of C. glaucum would be potential therapeutic agents and could be exploited on a pilot scale to treat human pathogenic diseases.
    Electronic ISSN: 1932-6203
    Topics: Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
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  • 46
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: Background Virtual reality (VR) has proven effective in the treatment of specific phobias and trauma particularly when in-vivo exposure therapy might be costly (e.g. fear of flying, combat scenes). Similarly, VR has been associated with improvement of chronic pain and of acute pain during medical procedures. Despite its effectiveness as a healthcare tool, VR technology is not well-integrated into common practice. This qualitative study aims to explore the provider perception of the value of VR and identify barriers to VR implementation among healthcare providers. Methods A 66-item self-report survey was created to examine application of VR to clinical practice, perceived value of this treatment, ease of learning the technology, billing considerations, and other obstacles. 128 providers (MDs and PhDs) who were located in the United States and had used VR as a therapeutic tool in the past year were identified through research papers, as well as user lists and news articles from VR application websites. Of the 128 providers contacted, 17% (22) completed our online self-report measure. Of these, 13% of respondents (N = 17) completed greater than 75% of the questionnaire and were considered completers. Provider responses were collected over a one-month period and qualitatively analyzed. Results The majority of providers were from an academic institution (n = 12, 70.6%), and all providers practiced in the outpatient setting. Providers most commonly reported using VR for the treatment of acute pain and/or anxiety related to medical procedures (n = 11, 64.7%), followed by specific phobia (n = 6, 35.3%) and social phobia (n = 6, 35.3%). All providers agreed VR is a valuable tool they would recommend to colleagues. The majority (n = 15, 93.8%) believed VR helped their patients progress in treatment, compared with other methods. Providers cited the ability to individualize treatment (n = 14, 87.5%) and increase patient engagement (n = 15, 93.8%) as main benefits of VR. A minority reported negative feedback from patients about content (n = 4, 25%) or about the technology in general (n = 6, 37.5%), whereas all reported some form of positive feedback. The slight majority (n = 10, 58.8%) of providers did not find transitioning to VR difficult. Of those who did, cost was the most commonly cited barrier (n = 6). Regarding reimbursement, only 17.6% (n = 3) of providers reported the ability to bill for VR sessions. Most providers (n = 15, 88.2%) received training on their VR platform which they found beneficial. Comparing the trained and untrained groups found no significant difference in VR comfort level (p = 0.5058), the value of VR in practice (p = 0.551) or whether providers would recommend VR to others (p = 0.551), though sample sizes were small. Conclusions In corroboration with previous research, this study demonstrates that VR is well-received by patients and providers, allowing increased patient engagement and treatment individualization. However, associated costs, including an inability to bill for this service, can present a barrier to further implementation. These findings will guide further development of virtual reality as a standardized tool in psychiatry and pain management.
    Electronic ISSN: 1932-6203
    Topics: Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
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  • 47
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is highly prevalent worldwide. In the United States, estimates show that more than 30% of the adult population has MetS. MetS consists of multiple phenotypes, including obesity, dyslipidemia, and impaired glucose tolerance. Therefore, identifying the molecular mechanisms to explain this complex disease is critical for diagnosing and treating MetS. We previously showed 70 increased genes and 20 decreased genes in whole blood in MetS participants. The present study aimed to identify blood-based DNA methylation biomarkers in non-MetS versus MetS participants. The present study analyzed whole blood DNA samples from 184 adult participants of Latino descent from the Arizona Insulin Resistance (AIR) registry. We used the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP: ATP III) criteria to identify non-MetS (n = 110) and MetS (n = 74) participants. We performed whole blood methylation analysis on select genes: ATP Synthase, H+ Transporting mitochondrial F1 Complex, Epsilon Subunit (ATP5E), Cytochrome C Oxidase Subunit VIc (COX6C), and Ribosomal Protein L9 (RPL9). The pyrosequencing analysis was a targeted approach focusing on the promoter region of each gene that specifically captured CpG methylation sites. In MetS participants, we showed decreased methylation in two CpG sites in COX6C and three CpG sites in RPL9, all p 〈 0.05 using the Mann-Whitney U test. There were no ATP5E CpG sites differently methylated in the MetS participants. Furthermore, while adjusting for age, gender, and smoking status, logistic regression analysis reaffirmed the associations between MetS and mean methylation within COX6C and RPL9 (both p 〈 0.05). In addition, Spearman’s correlation revealed a significant inverse relationship between the previously published gene expression data and methylation data for RPL9 (p 〈 0.05). In summary, these results highlight potential blood DNA methylation biomarkers for the MetS phenotype. However, future validation studies are warranted to strengthen our findings.
    Electronic ISSN: 1932-6203
    Topics: Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
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  • 49
    Publication Date: 2021-10-28
    Print ISSN: 0021-8979
    Electronic ISSN: 1089-7550
    Topics: Physics
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  • 50
    Publication Date: 2021-10-01
    Electronic ISSN: 2158-3226
    Topics: Physics
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  • 51
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: Porcine epidemic diarrhoea (PED) is a highly contagious enteric viral disease of pigs with a high morbidity and mortality rate, which ultimately results in huge economic losses in the pig production sector. The etiological agent of this disease is the porcine epidemic diarrhoea virus (PEDV) which is an enveloped, positive single-stranded RNA virus. The aim of this study was to perform molecular characterization of PEDV to identify the strains circulating in Poland. In this study, 662 faecal samples from 2015 to 2021 were tested with reverse transcription quantitative real-time PCR (RT-qPCR) and the results showed that 3.8% of the tested samples revealed a positive result for PEDV. A phylogenetic analysis of the complete genome and complete S gene sequences showed that Polish PEDV strains belonged to the G1b (S-INDEL) subgroup and were closely related to the European PEDV strains isolated from 2014 to 2019. Furthermore, RDP4 analysis revealed that the Polish PEDV strains harboured a recombinant fragment of ~400 nt in the 5’ end of S gene with PEDV and swine enteric coronavirus (SeCoV) being the major and minor parents, respectively. Antigenic analysis showed that the aa sequences of neutralizing epitopes were conserved among the Polish PEDV strains. Only one strain, #0100/5P, had a unique substitution in the COE epitope. However, Polish PEDV strains showed several substitutions, especially in the COE antigen, as compared to the classical strain CV777. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report concerning the molecular characterization of porcine epidemic diarrhoea virus strains, as well as the first phylogenetic analysis for PEDV in Poland.
    Electronic ISSN: 1932-6203
    Topics: Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
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  • 52
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: Leishmaniasis is endemic and a mandatory reporting disease in Spain since 1982. However, between 1996 and 2014, surveillance on public health was decentralized and only some autonomous regions monitored the disease. The aim of this study is to estimate the incidence of leishmaniasis and to evaluate the extent of underreporting in Spain. A capture-recapture (CRC) study was conducted to calculate the incidence of human leishmaniasis using reports from the National Surveillance Network (RENAVE) and the Hospital Discharge Records of the National Health System (CMBD) for 2016 and 2017. During the study period, 802 cases were reported to RENAVE and there were 1,149 incident hospitalizations related to leishmaniasis. The estimated incidence rates through the CRC study were 0.79 per 100,000 inhabitants for visceral leishmaniasis (VL), 0.88 (cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL)) and 0.12 (mucocutaneous leishmaniasis (MCL)) in 2016 and 0.86 (VL), 1.04 (CL) and 0.12 (MCL) in 2017. An underreporting of 14.7–20.2% for VL and 50.4–55.1% for CL was found. The CRC method has helped us to assess the sensitivity and representativeness of leishmaniasis surveillance in Spain, being a useful tool to assess whether the generalization of leishmaniasis surveillance throughout the Spanish territory achieves a reduction in underreporting.
    Electronic ISSN: 1932-6203
    Topics: Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
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  • 53
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: Droughts are widespread disasters worldwide and are concurrently influenced by multiple large-scale climate signals. This is particularly true over Japan, where drought has strong heterogeneity due to multiple factors such as monsoon, topography, and ocean circulations. Regional heterogeneity poses challenges for drought prediction and management. To overcome this difficulty, this study provides a comprehensive analysis of teleconnection between climate signals and homogeneous drought zones over Japan. First, droughts are characterized by simulated soil moisture from land surface model during 1958-2012. The Mclust toolkit, distinct empirical orthogonal function, and wavelet coherence analysis are used, respectively, to investigate the homogeneous drought zone, principal component of each homogeneous zone, and teleconnection between climate signals and drought. Results indicate that nine homogeneous drought zones with different characteristics are defined and quantified. Among these nine zones, zone-1 is dominated by extreme drought events. Zone-2 and zone-6 are typical representatives of spring droughts, while zone-7 is wet for most of the period. The Hokkaido region is divided into wetter zone-4 and drier zone-9. Zone-3, zone-5 and zone-8 are distinguished by the topography. The analyses also reveal almost nine zones have a high level of homogeneity, with more than 60% explained variance. Also, these nine zones are dominated by different large-scale climate signals: the Arctic Oscillation has the strongest impact on zone-1, zone-7, and zone-8; the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on zone-3, zone-4, and zone-6 is significant; zone-2 and zone-9 are both dominated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation; El Niño-Southern Oscillation dominates zone-5. The results will be valuable for drought management and drought prevention.
    Print ISSN: 1558-8424
    Electronic ISSN: 1558-8432
    Topics: Geography , Physics
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  • 54
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: This exploration primarily aims to jointly apply the local FCN (fully convolution neural network) and YOLO-v5 (You Only Look Once-v5) to the detection of small targets in remote sensing images. Firstly, the application effects of R-CNN (Region-Convolutional Neural Network), FRCN (Fast Region-Convolutional Neural Network), and R-FCN (Region-Based-Fully Convolutional Network) in image feature extraction are analyzed after introducing the relevant region proposal network. Secondly, YOLO-v5 algorithm is established on the basis of YOLO algorithm. Besides, the multi-scale anchor mechanism of Faster R-CNN is utilized to improve the detection ability of YOLO-v5 algorithm for small targets in the image in the process of image detection, and realize the high adaptability of YOLO-v5 algorithm to different sizes of images. Finally, the proposed detection method YOLO-v5 algorithm + R-FCN is compared with other algorithms in NWPU VHR-10 data set and Vaihingen data set. The experimental results show that the YOLO-v5 + R-FCN detection method has the optimal detection ability among many algorithms, especially for small targets in remote sensing images such as tennis courts, vehicles, and storage tanks. Moreover, the YOLO-v5 + R-FCN detection method can achieve high recall rates for different types of small targets. Furthermore, due to the deeper network architecture, the YOL v5 + R-FCN detection method has a stronger ability to extract the characteristics of image targets in the detection of remote sensing images. Meanwhile, it can achieve more accurate feature recognition and detection performance for the densely arranged target images in remote sensing images. This research can provide reference for the application of remote sensing technology in China, and promote the application of satellites for target detection tasks in related fields.
    Electronic ISSN: 1932-6203
    Topics: Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
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  • 55
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: Background Since the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak, many pharmaceutical companies have been racing to develop a safe and effective COVID-19 vaccine. Simultaneously, rumors and misinformation about COVID-19 are still widely spreading. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the prevalence of COVID-19 misinformation among the Yemeni population and its association with vaccine acceptance and perceptions. Methods A cross-sectional online survey was conducted in four major cities in Yemen. The constructed questionnaire consisted of four main sections (sociodemographic data, misinformation, perceptions (perceived susceptibility, severity, and worry), and vaccination acceptance evaluation). Subject recruitment and data collection were conducted online utilizing social websites and using the snowball sampling technique. Descriptive and inferential analyses were performed using SPSS version 27. Results The total number of respondents was 484. Over 60% of them were males and had a university education. More than half had less than 100$ monthly income and were khat chewers, while only 18% were smokers. Misinformation prevalence ranged from 8.9% to 38.9%, depending on the statement being asked. Men, university education, higher income, employment, and living in urban areas were associated with a lower misinformation level (p
    Electronic ISSN: 1932-6203
    Topics: Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
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  • 56
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: Background Care institutions are recognised to be a high-risk setting for the emergence and spread of infections and antimicrobial-resistant organisms, which stresses the importance of infection prevention and control (IPC). Accurate implementation is crucial for optimal IPC practice. Despite the wide promotion of IPC and research thereof in the hospital and nursing home setting, similar efforts are lacking in disability care settings. Therefore, this study aimed to assess perceived barriers and facilitators to IPC among professionals working at residential care facilities (RCFs) for people with intellectual and developmental disabilities (IDD), as well as to identify professional-reported recommendations to improve IPC. Methods This qualitative study involved semi-structured interviews (before COVID-19) with twelve professionals from five Dutch RCFs for people with IDD. An integrated theoretical approach was used to inform data collection and analysis. Thematic analysis using inductive and deductive approaches was conducted. This study followed the COnsolidated criteria for REporting Qualitative research (COREQ) guidelines. Results Our findings revealed barriers and facilitators at the guideline, client, professional, professional interaction, professional client interaction, client interaction, organisational, community, and societal level. Six main themes covering multiple barriers and facilitators were identified: (1) guidelines’ applicability to (work)setting; (2) professionals’ cognitions and attitude towards IPC (related to educational background); (3) organisational support and priority; (4) educational system; (5) time availability and staff capacity; and (6) task division and change coaches. The main professional-reported recommendations were the introduction of tailored and practical IPC guidelines, structural IPC education and training among all professionals, and client participation. Conclusions To promote IPC, multifaceted and multilevel strategies should be implemented, with a preliminary need for improvements on the guideline, professional, and organisational level. Given the heterogeneous character, i.e., different professionals, clients and care needs, there is a need for a tailored approach to implement IPC and sustain it successfully in disability care. Our findings can inform future IPC practice improvements.
    Electronic ISSN: 1932-6203
    Topics: Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
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  • 57
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: Background The bidirectional relationship between health behavior and subjective well-being has previously been studied sparsely, and mainly for individual health behaviors and regression models. In the present study, we deepen this knowledge focusing on the four principal health behaviors and using structural equation modeling with selected covariates. Methods The follow-up data (n = 11,804) was derived from a population-based random sample of working-age Finns from two waves (2003 and 2012) of the Health and Social Support (HeSSup) postal survey. Structural equation modeling was used to study the cross-sectional, cross-lagged, and longitudinal relationships between the four principal health behaviors and subjective well-being at baseline and after the nine-year follow-up adjusted for age, gender, education, and self-reported diseases. The included health behaviors were physical activity, dietary habits, alcohol consumption, and smoking status. Subjective well-being was measured through four items comprising happiness, interest, and ease in life, and perceived loneliness. Results Bidirectionally, only health behavior in 2003 predicted subjective well-being in 2012, whereas subjective well-being in 2003 did not predict health behavior in 2012. In addition, the cross-sectional interactions in 2003 and in 2012 between health behavior and subjective well-being were statistically significant. The baseline levels predicted their respective follow-up levels, the effect being stronger in health behavior than in subjective well-being. Conclusion The four principal health behaviors together predict subsequent subjective well-being after an extensive follow-up. Although not particularly strong, the results could still be used for motivation for health behavior change, because of the beneficial effects of health behavior on subjective well-being.
    Electronic ISSN: 1932-6203
    Topics: Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
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  • 58
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: Background Housemaids are the most vulnerable group to sexual violence due to their working condition, isolation and school arrangements. Despite the ubiquity of sexual violence among the domestic work sector, particularly among housemaids, this area of research continues to be neglected. This study was aimed at examining the prevalence and factors pertaining to sexual violence among housemaids attending night school program in urban setups of Gedeo zone, Southern Ethiopia. Method A school based quantitative cross sectional study was conducted among 394 housemaids attending night schools in the urban setups of Gedeo Zone from April to May 2019. After stratifying of students using class grade, SRS technique was used to choose study subjects from each stratum. Quantitative data was collected using face to face interview and qualitative was collected using focus group discussion, in-depth interview and key informant interview. The data was entered and analyzed by SPSS version 20. Binary logistic regression was fitted to determine the association of each independent variable with the dependent variable. Result Based on the finding, the prevalence of sexual violence was 60.2%. The odds of experiencing sexual violence through working life-time as housemaid was higher for those who had migrated from rural to urban for work [AOR = 1.97: 95% CI, (1.07,3.63)], had less than 5 years of experience as housemaid [AOR = 3.10: 95% CI, (1.60, 6.00)], were in the age group of 15–19 [AOR = 3.75:95% CI (1.88, 7.46), ever used alcohol [AOR = 6.77: 95% CI, (2.65,17.33)] and whose fathers lacked formal education [AOR = 2.75:95%CI (1.24,6.08)]. On the other hand, unmarried /housemaids having no regular sexual partner were less likely to face sexual violence [AOR. = 0.28: 95% CI, (0.13, 0.57)]. Conclusion The level of sexual violence was found to be high among housemaids attending night schools in in this study. Housemaids from rural area, those newly starting the work, younger housemaids, and those who were married were more likely to be victims of sexual violence.
    Electronic ISSN: 1932-6203
    Topics: Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
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  • 59
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: Patterns of local adaptation can emerge in response to the selective pressures diseases exert on host populations as reflected in increased frequencies of respective, advantageous genotypes. Elucidating patterns of local adaptation enhance our understanding of mechanisms of disease spread and the capacity for species to adapt in context of rapidly changing environments such as the Arctic. Arctic rabies is a lethal disease that largely persists in northern climates and overlaps with the distribution of its natural host, arctic fox. Arctic fox populations display little neutral genetic structure across their North American range, whereas phylogenetically unique arctic rabies variants are restricted in their geographic distributions. It remains unknown if arctic rabies variants impose differential selection upon host populations, nor what role different rabies variants play in the maintenance and spread of this disease. Using a targeted, genotyping-by-sequencing assay, we assessed correlations of arctic fox immunogenetic variation with arctic rabies variants to gain further insight into the epidemiology of this disease. Corroborating past research, we found no neutral genetic structure between sampled regions, but did find moderate immunogenetic structuring between foxes predominated by different arctic rabies variants. FST outliers associated with host immunogenetic structure included SNPs within interleukin and Toll-like receptor coding regions (IL12B, IL5, TLR3 and NFKB1); genes known to mediate host responses to rabies. While these data do not necessarily reflect causation, nor a direct link to arctic rabies, the contrasting genetic structure of immunologically associated candidate genes with neutral loci is suggestive of differential selection and patterns of local adaptation in this system. These data are somewhat unexpected given the long-lived nature and dispersal capacities of arctic fox; traits expected to undermine local adaptation. Overall, these data contribute to our understanding of the co-evolutionary relationships between arctic rabies and their primary host and provide data relevant to the management of this disease.
    Electronic ISSN: 1932-6203
    Topics: Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
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  • 60
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: Influenza viruses cause respiratory tract infections and substantial health concerns. Infection may result in mild to severe respiratory disease associated with morbidity and some mortality. Several anti-influenza drugs are available, but these agents target viral components and are susceptible to drug resistance. There is a need for new antiviral drug strategies that include repurposing of clinically approved drugs. Drugs that target cellular machinery necessary for influenza virus replication can provide a means for inhibiting influenza virus replication. We used RNA interference screening to identify key host cell genes required for influenza replication, and then FDA-approved drugs that could be repurposed for targeting host genes. We examined the effects of Clopidogrel and Triamterene to inhibit A/WSN/33 (EC50 5.84 uM and 31.48 uM, respectively), A/CA/04/09 (EC50 6.432 uM and 3.32 uM, respectively), and B/Yamagata/16/1988 (EC50 0.28 uM and 0.11 uM, respectively) replication. Clopidogrel and Triamterene provide a druggable approach to influenza treatment across multiple strains and subtypes.
    Electronic ISSN: 1932-6203
    Topics: Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
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  • 61
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Electronic ISSN: 1932-6203
    Topics: Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
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  • 62
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: In self-reports, socially desirable responding threatens the validity of prevalence estimates for sensitive personal attitudes and behaviors. Indirect questioning techniques such as the crosswise model attempt to control for the influence of social desirability bias. The crosswise model has repeatedly been found to provide more valid prevalence estimates than direct questions. We investigated whether crosswise model estimates are also less susceptible to deliberate faking than direct questions. To this end, we investigated the effect of “fake good” instructions on responses to direct and crosswise model questions. In a sample of 1,946 university students, 12-month prevalence estimates for a sensitive road traffic behavior were higher and thus presumably more valid in the crosswise model than in a direct question. Moreover, “fake good” instructions severely impaired the validity of the direct questioning estimates, whereas the crosswise model estimates were unaffected by deliberate faking. Participants also reported higher levels of perceived confidentiality and a lower perceived ease of faking in the crosswise model compared to direct questions. Our results corroborate previous studies finding the crosswise model to be an effective tool for counteracting the detrimental effects of positive self-presentation in surveys on sensitive issues.
    Electronic ISSN: 1932-6203
    Topics: Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
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  • 63
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: Intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) introduced marked changes to cancer treatment in animals by reducing dose to organs at risk (OAR). As the next technological step, volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT) has advantages (increased degrees-of-freedom, faster delivery) compared to fixed-field IMRT. Our objective was to investigate a possible advantage of VMAT over IMRT in terms of lower OAR doses in advanced-disease sinonasal tumors in dogs treated with simultaneously-integrated boost radiotherapy. A retrospective, analytical, observational study design was applied using 10 pre-existing computed tomography datasets on dogs with stage 4 sinonasal tumors. Each dataset was planned with both, 5-field IMRT and 2 arc VMAT with 10x4.83 Gy to the gross tumor volume and 10x4.2 Gy to the planning target volume. Adequate target dose coverage and normal tissue complication probability of brain ≤5% was required. Dose constraints aspired to were D60
    Electronic ISSN: 1932-6203
    Topics: Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
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  • 64
    Publication Date: 2021-10-01
    Print ISSN: 1070-6631
    Electronic ISSN: 1089-7666
    Topics: Physics
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  • 65
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: Maps of bottom type are essential to the management of marine resources and biodiversity because of their foundational role in characterizing species’ habitats. They are also urgently needed as countries work to define marine protected areas. Current approaches are time consuming, focus largely on grain size, and tend to overlook shallow waters. Our random forest classification of almost 200,000 observations of bottom type is a timely alternative, providing maps of coastal substrate at a combination of resolution and extents not previously achieved. We correlated the observations with depth, depth-derivatives, and estimates of energy to predict marine substrate at 100 m resolution for Canada’s Pacific shelf, a study area of over 135,000 km2. We built five regional models with the same data at 20 m resolution. In addition to standard tests of model fit, we used three independent data sets to test model predictions. We also tested for regional, depth, and resolution effects. We guided our analysis by asking: 1) does weighting for prevalence improve model predictions? 2) does model resolution influence model performance? And 3) is model performance influenced by depth? All our models fit the build data well with true skill statistic (TSS) scores ranging from 0.56 to 0.64. Weighting models with class prevalence improved fit and the correspondence with known spatial features. Class-based metrics showed differences across both resolutions and spatial regions, indicating non-stationarity across these spatial categories. Predictive power was lower (TSS from 0.10 to 0.36) based on independent data evaluation. Model performance was also a function of depth and resolution, illustrating the challenge of accurately representing heterogeneity. Our work shows the value of regional analyses to assessing model stationarity and how independent data evaluation and the use of error metrics can improve understanding of model performance and sampling bias.
    Electronic ISSN: 1932-6203
    Topics: Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
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  • 67
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: Kohlschütter-Tönz syndrome (KTS) manifests as neurological dysfunctions, including early-onset seizures. Mutations in the citrate transporter SLC13A5 are associated with KTS, yet their underlying mechanisms remain elusive. Here, we report that a Drosophila SLC13A5 homolog, I’m not dead yet (Indy), constitutes a neurometabolic pathway that suppresses seizure. Loss of Indy function in glutamatergic neurons caused “bang-induced” seizure-like behaviors. In fact, glutamate biosynthesis from the citric acid cycle was limiting in Indy mutants for seizure-suppressing glutamate transmission. Oral administration of the rate-limiting α-ketoglutarate in the metabolic pathway rescued low glutamate levels in Indy mutants and ameliorated their seizure-like behaviors. This metabolic control of the seizure susceptibility was mapped to a pair of glutamatergic neurons, reversible by optogenetic controls of their activity, and further relayed onto fan-shaped body neurons via the ionotropic glutamate receptors. Accordingly, our findings reveal a micro-circuit that links neural metabolism to seizure, providing important clues to KTS-associated neurodevelopmental deficits.
    Print ISSN: 1553-7390
    Electronic ISSN: 1553-7404
    Topics: Biology
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  • 68
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: Introduction Take-Home Naloxone programs have been introduced across North America in response to rising opioid overdose deaths. There is currently limited real-world data on bystander naloxone administration, overdose outcomes, and evidence related to adverse events following bystander naloxone administration. Methods The research team used descriptive statistics from Take-Home Naloxone administration forms. We explored reported demographic variables and adverse events among people who received by-stander administered naloxone in a suspected opioid overdose event between August 31, 2012 and December 31, 2018 in British Columbia. We examined and contextualized differences across years given policy, program and drug toxicity changes. We used multivariate logistic regression to examine whether an association exists between number of ampoules of naloxone administered and the odds that the recipient will experience withdrawal symptoms. Results A large majority (98.1%) of individuals who were administered naloxone survived their overdose and 69.2% had no or only mild withdrawal symptoms. Receiving three (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) 1.64 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.08–2.48)) or four or more (AOR 2.19 (95% CI: 1.32–3.62)) ampoules of naloxone was significantly associated with odds of moderate or severe withdrawal compared to receiving one ampoule of naloxone. Conclusions This study provides evidence from thousands of bystander reversed opioid overdoses using Take-Home Naloxone kits in British Columbia, and suggests bystander-administered naloxone is safe and effective for opioid overdose reversal. Data suggests an emphasis on titration during bystander naloxone training in situations where the person experiencing overdose can be adequately ventilated may help avoid severe withdrawal symptoms. We identified a decreasing trend in the likelihood of moderate or severe withdrawal over the study period.
    Electronic ISSN: 1932-6203
    Topics: Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
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  • 69
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: We investigated the characteristics of extracellular matrix (ECM) in the soft tissue of two frozen baby woolly mammoths (Mammuthus primigenius) that died and were buried in Siberian permafrost approximately 40,000 years ago. Morphological and biochemical analyses of mammoth lung and liver demonstrated that those soft tissues were preserved at the gross anatomical and histological levels. The ultrastructure of ECM components, namely a fibrillar structure with a collagen-characteristic pattern of cross-striation, was clearly visible with transmission and scanning electron microscopy. Type I and type IV collagens were detected by immunohistochemical observation. Quantitative amino acid analysis of liver and lung tissues of the baby mammoths indicated that collagenous protein is selectively preserved in these tissues as a main protein. Type I and type III collagens were detected as major components by means of liquid chromatography–mass spectrometry analysis after digestion with trypsin. These results indicate that the triple helical collagen molecule, which is resistant to proteinase digestion, has been preserved in the soft tissues of these frozen mammoths for 40,000 years.
    Electronic ISSN: 1932-6203
    Topics: Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
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  • 70
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: Background Worldwide, strict infection control measures including visitation regulations were implemented due to the COVID-19 pandemic at Neonatal Intensive Care Units (NICUs). These regulations gave restricted access for parents to their hospitalized infants. The consequence was limited ability to involve in the care of their infants. At Oslo University Hospital entry to NICU was denied to all except healthy mothers in March 2020. The absolute access ban for fathers lasted for 10 weeks. The aim of this study was to explore parental experiences with an infant hospitalized in the NICU during this absolute visitation ban period. Methods We invited post discharge all parents of surviving infants that had been hospitalized for at least 14 days to participate. They were interviewed during autumn 2020 using an explorative semi-structured interview approach. Data were analyzed via inductive thematic analysis. Results Nine mothers and four fathers participated. The COVID-19 regulations strongly impacted the parent’s experiences of their stay. The fathers’ limited access felt life-impacting. Parents struggled to become a family and raised their voices to be heard. Not being able to experience parenthood together led to emotional loneliness. The fathers struggled to learn how to care for their infant. The regulations might lead to a postponed attachment. On the other hand, of positive aspect the parents got some quietness. Being hospitalized during this first wave was experienced as exceptional and made parents seeking alliances by other parents. Social media was used to keep in contact with the outside world. Conclusions The regulations had strong negative impact on parental experiences during the NICU hospitalization. The restriction to fathers’ access to the NICU acted as a significant obstacle to early infant-father bonding and led to loneliness and isolation by the mothers. Thus, these COVID-19 measures might have had adverse consequences for families.
    Electronic ISSN: 1932-6203
    Topics: Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
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  • 71
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: Background Non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) harms human health, but its pathogenesis remains unclear. We wish to provide more molecular therapeutic targets for NSCLC. Methods The NSCLC tissue and normal tissue samples were screened for genetic comparison in the TCGA database. The predicted lncRNA and mRNA in BEAS2B and A549 cells were detected. Results Volcano plot displayed differentially expressed lncRNAs and mRNAs in adjacent tissues and NSCLC tissues. The survival curve showed that the lncRNA and mRNA had a significant impact on the patient’s survival. The results of GO term enrichment analysis indicated that mRNA functions were enriched in cell cycle-related pathways. In the ceRNA interaction network, 13 lncRNAs and 20 miRNAs were found to have an interactive relationship. Finally, 3 significantly different lncRNAs (LINC00968, lnc-FAM92A-9 and lnc-PTGFR-1) and 6 mRNAs (CTCFL, KRT5, LY6D, TMEM, GBP6, and TMEM179) with potential therapeutic significance were screened out. And the cell experiment verified our results. Conclusion We screened out clinically significant 3 lncRNAs and 6 mRNAs involved in the ceRNA network, which were the key to our future research on the treatment of NSCLC.
    Electronic ISSN: 1932-6203
    Topics: Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
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  • 72
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: ERBB family members and their ligands play an essential role in embryonic heart development and adult heart physiology. Among them, ERBB3 is a binding partner of ERBB2; the ERBB2/3 complex mediates downstream signaling for cell proliferation. ERBB3 has seven consensus binding sites to the p85 regulatory subunit of PI3K, which activates the downstream AKT pathway, leading to the proliferation of various cells. This study generated a human ERBB3 knock-in mouse expressing a mutant ERBB3 whose seven YXXM p85 binding sites were replaced with YXXA. Erbb3 knock-in embryos exhibited lethality between E12.5 to E13.5, and showed a decrease in mesenchymal cell numbers and density in AV cushions. We determined that the proliferation of mesenchymal cells in the atrioventricular (AV) cushion in Erbb3 knock-in mutant embryos was temporarily reduced due to the decrease of AKT and ERK1/2 phosphorylation. Overall, our results suggest that AKT/ERK activation by the ERBB3-dependent PI3K signaling is crucial for AV cushion morphogenesis during embryonic heart development.
    Electronic ISSN: 1932-6203
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  • 73
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: Fungal infection and synthesis of mycotoxins in coffee leads to significant economic losses. This study aimed to investigate the prevalence of toxigenic fungi, their metabolites, and the effect of traditional roasting and brewing on ochratoxin A (OTA) and aflatoxins (AFs) contents of naturally contaminated coffee samples. In addition, in vivo biocontrol assays were performed to explore the antagonistic activities of Bacillus simplex 350–3 (BS350-3) on the growth and mycotoxins synthesis of Aspergillus ochraceus and A. flavus. The relative density of A. niger, A. flavus, Penicillium verrucosum and A. carbonarius on green coffee bean was 60.82%, 7.21%, 3.09% and 1.03%, respectively. OTA contents were lowest in green coffee beans (2.15 μg/kg), followed by roasted (2.76 μg/kg) and soluble coffee (8.95 μg/kg). Likewise, AFs levels were highest in soluble coffee (90.58 μg/kg) followed by roasted (33.61 μg/kg) and green coffee (9.07 μg/kg). Roasting naturally contaminated coffee beans at three traditional methods; low, medium and high, followed by brewing resulted in reduction of 58.74% (3.50 μg/kg), 60.88% (3.72 μg/kg) and 64.70% (4.11 μg/kg) in OTA and 40.18% (34.65 μg/kg), 47.86% (41.17 μg/kg) and 62.38% (53.73 μg/kg) AFs contents, respectively. Significant inhibitions of AFs and OTA synthesis by A. flavus and A. carbonarius, respectively, on infected coffee beans were observed in presence of Bacillus simplex BS350-3 volatiles. Gas chromatography mass spectrochemistry (GC-MS/MS) analysis of head-space BS350-3 volatiles showed quinoline, benzenemethanamine and 1-Octadecene as bioactive antifungal molecules. These findings suggest that marketed coffee samples are generally contaminated with OTA and AFs, with a significant level of roasted and soluble coffee contaminated above EU permissible limits for OTA. Further, along with coffee roasting and brewing; microbial volatiles can be optimized to minimize the dietary exposure to mycotoxins.
    Electronic ISSN: 1932-6203
    Topics: Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
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  • 74
    Publication Date: 2021-10-25
    Print ISSN: 0003-6951
    Electronic ISSN: 1077-3118
    Topics: Physics
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  • 75
    Publication Date: 2021-10-25
    Print ISSN: 0003-6951
    Electronic ISSN: 1077-3118
    Topics: Physics
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  • 76
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: The spatial distribution of visual items allows us to infer the presence of latent causes in the world. For instance, a spatial cluster of ants allows us to infer the presence of a common food source. However, optimal inference requires the integration of a computationally intractable number of world states in real world situations. For example, optimal inference about whether a common cause exists based on N spatially distributed visual items requires marginalizing over both the location of the latent cause and 2N possible affiliation patterns (where each item may be affiliated or non-affiliated with the latent cause). How might the brain approximate this inference? We show that subject behaviour deviates qualitatively from Bayes-optimal, in particular showing an unexpected positive effect of N (the number of visual items) on the false-alarm rate. We propose several “point-estimating” observer models that fit subject behaviour better than the Bayesian model. They each avoid a costly computational marginalization over at least one of the variables of the generative model by “committing” to a point estimate of at least one of the two generative model variables. These findings suggest that the brain may implement partially committal variants of Bayesian models when detecting latent causes based on complex real world data.
    Print ISSN: 1553-734X
    Electronic ISSN: 1553-7358
    Topics: Biology , Computer Science
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  • 77
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: This paper uses publicly available data and various statistical models to estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) and other disease parameters for Ghana’s early COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. We also test the effectiveness of government imposition of public health measures to reduce the risk of transmission and impact of the pandemic, especially in the early phase. R0 is estimated from the statistical model as 3.21 using a 0.147 estimated growth rate [95% C.I.: 0.137–0.157] and a 15-day time to recovery after COVID-19 infection. This estimate of the initial R0 is consistent with others reported in the literature from other parts of Africa, China and Europe. Our results also indicate that COVID-19 transmission reduced consistently in Ghana after the imposition of public health interventions—such as border restrictions, intra-city movement, quarantine and isolation—during the first phase of the pandemic from March to May 2020. However, the time-dependent reproduction number (Rt) beyond mid-May 2020 does not represent the true situation, given that there was not a consistent testing regime in place. This is also confirmed by our Jack-knife bootstrap estimates which show that the positivity rate over-estimates the true incidence rate from mid-May 2020. Given concerns about virus mutations, delays in vaccination and a possible new wave of the pandemic, there is a need for systematic testing of a representative sample of the population to monitor the reproduction number. There is also an urgent need to increase the availability of testing for the general population to enable early detection, isolation and treatment of infected individuals to reduce progression to severe disease and mortality.
    Electronic ISSN: 1932-6203
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  • 78
    Publication Date: 2021-11-07
    Print ISSN: 0021-9606
    Electronic ISSN: 1089-7690
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Physics
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  • 79
    Publication Date: 2021-11-07
    Print ISSN: 0021-9606
    Electronic ISSN: 1089-7690
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Physics
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  • 80
    Publication Date: 2021-11-07
    Print ISSN: 0021-9606
    Electronic ISSN: 1089-7690
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Physics
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  • 81
    Publication Date: 2021-11-07
    Print ISSN: 0021-9606
    Electronic ISSN: 1089-7690
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Physics
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  • 82
  • 83
    Publication Date: 2021-10-08
    Description: This paper investigates the value of weather and climate information at different timescales for decision making in the Tanzanian disaster risk reduction sector using non-monetary approaches. Interviews and surveys were conducted with institutions responsible for disaster management at national, regional and district level. A range of values were identified including: 1) making informed decisions for disaster preparedness, response, recovery and restoration related activities; 2) tailoring of directives and actions based on sectoral impacts; 3) identification of hotspot areas for diseases outbreaks and surplus food production. However, while, a number of guidelines, policies, acts and regulations for disaster risk reduction exist it is not clear how well they promote the use of weather and climate information across climate sensitive sectors. Nonetheless, we find that well-structured disaster risk reduction coordination across sectors and institutions from the national to district level exists, although there is a need for further development of integrated Early Warning Systems, and a common platform to evaluate effectiveness and usefulness of weather warnings and advisories. Key challenges to address in increasing the uptake of weather warnings and advisories include language barriers, limited dissemination to rural areas, and limited awareness of forecasts. Based on the findings of this study, we recommend further quantitative evaluation of the skill of the severe weather warnings issued by the Tanzania Meteorological Authority, and an assessment of how decisions and actions are made by recipients of the warnings in the disaster risk reduction sector at different stages in the warning, response and recovery process.
    Print ISSN: 1948-8327
    Electronic ISSN: 1948-8335
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 84
    Publication Date: 2021-10-28
    Print ISSN: 0021-9606
    Electronic ISSN: 1089-7690
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Physics
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  • 85
    Publication Date: 2021-09-13
    Description: Tropical cyclones are associated with a variety of significant social hazards, including wind, rain, and storm surge. Despite this, most of the model validation effort has been directed toward track and intensity forecasts. In contrast, few studies have investigated the skill of state-of-the-art, high-resolution ensemble prediction systems in predicting associated TC hazards, which is crucial since TC position and intensity do not always correlate with the TC-related hazards, and can result in impacts far from the actual TC center. Furthermore, dynamic models can provide flow-dependent uncertainty estimates, which in turn can provide more specific guidance to forecasters than statistical uncertainty estimates based on past errors. This study validates probabilistic forecasts of wind speed and precipitation hazards derived from the HWRF ensemble prediction system and compares its skill to forecasts by the stochastically-based operational Monte Carlo Model (NHC), the IFS (ECMWF), and the GEFS (NOAA) in use 2017-2019. Wind and Precipitation forecasts are validated against NHC best track wind radii information and the National Stage IV QPE Product. The HWRF 34 kn wind forecasts have comparable skill to the global models up to 60 h lead time before HWRF skill decreases, possibly due to detrimental impacts of large track errors. In contrast, HWRF has comparable quality to its competitors for higher thresholds of 50 kn and 64 kn throughout 120 h lead time. In terms of precipitation hazards, HWRF performs similar or better than global models, but depicts higher, although not perfect, reliability, especially for events over 5 in120h−1. Post-processing, like Quantile Mapping, improves forecast skill for all models significantly and can alleviate reliability issues of the global models.
    Print ISSN: 0882-8156
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0434
    Topics: Geography , Physics
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  • 86
    Publication Date: 2021-09-09
    Description: Diurnal variation in surface latent heat flux (LHF) and the effects of diurnal variations in LHF-related variables on the climatological LHF are examined using observations from the Global Tropical Moored Buoy Array. The estimated amplitude of the climatological diurnal LHF over the Indo-Pacific warm pool and the equatorial Pacific and Atlantic cold tongues is remarkable, with maximum values exceeding 20.0 W m−2. Diurnal variability of sea surface skin temperature (SSTskin) is the primary contributor to the diurnal LHF amplitude. Because the diurnal SSTskin amplitude has an inverse relationship with surface wind speed over the tropical oceans, an inverse spatial pattern between the diurnal LHF amplitude and surface wind speed results. Resolving diurnal variations in the SSTskin and wind improves the estimate of the climatological LHF by properly capturing the daytime SSTskin and daily mean wind speed, respectively. The diurnal SSTskin-associated contribution is large over the warm pool and equatorial cold tongues where low wind speeds tend to cause strong diurnal SSTskin warming, while the magnitude associated with the diurnal winds is large over the highly dynamic environment of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone. The total diurnal contribution is about 9.0 W m−2 on average over the buoy sites. There appears to be a power function (linear) relationship between the diurnal SSTskin-associated (wind-associated) contribution and surface mean wind speed (wind speed enhancement from diurnal variability). The total contribution from diurnal variability can be estimated accurately from high-frequency surface wind measurements using these relationships.
    Print ISSN: 0022-3670
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0485
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 87
    Publication Date: 2021-09-09
    Description: Modeling studies have shown that surface air temperature (SAT) increase in response to an increase in the atmospheric CO2 concentration is larger over land than over ocean. This so-called land–ocean warming contrast, φ, defined as the land–mean SAT change divided by the ocean-mean SAT change, is a striking feature of global warming. Small heat capacity over land is unlikely the sole cause because the land-ocean warming contrast is found in the equilibrium state of CO2 doubling experiments.Several different mechanisms have been proposed to explain the land–ocean warming contrast, but the comprehensive understanding has not yet been obtained. In Part I of this study, we propose a framework to diagnose φ based on energy budgets at the top of atmosphere and for the atmosphere, which enables the decomposition of contributions from effective radiative forcing (ERF), climate feedback, heat capacity, and atmospheric energy transport anomaly to φ. Using this framework, we analyzed the SAT response to an abrupt CO2 quadrupling using 15 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Earth system models. In the near-equilibrium state (years 121-150), φ is 1.49 ± 0.11, which is primarily induced by the land–ocean difference in ERF and heat capacity. We found that contributions from ERF, feedback, and energy transport anomaly tend to cancel each other, leading to a small inter-model spread of φ compared to the large spread of individual components. In the equilibrium state without heat capacity contribution, ERF and energy transport anomaly are the major contributors to φ, which shows a weak negative correlation with the equilibrium climate sensitivity.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 88
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: The EPOCH Measure of Adolescent Well-being measures five positive indicators of the well-being of adolescents: engagement, perseverance, optimism, connectedness and happiness. This five-factor structure along with other indicators of validity and reliability were supported for the original English version and the Chinese version. In this study, we tested the psychometric properties of the Swedish version of the EPOCH with a sample (n = 846) of Swedish high school adolescents aged 16–21 years (Mage = 18, SD = .85). The participants answered a questionnaire containing the EPOCH, Coping Self-Efficacy Scale, and 21-item Depression, Anxiety, and Stress Scale (DASS-21). A confirmatory factor analysis supported a the five-factor, inter-correlated model. The internal consistency was good for all the EPOCH subscales (Cronbach’s α = .76–.88, McDonald’s ω = .77 –.88). The criterion validity was established by replicating correlations between the five EPOCH subscales and positive (coping self-efficacy) and negative (DASS-21) aspects of well-being. This study shows that the Swedish version of the EPOCH is suitable for assessing multiple dimensions of adolescent well-being.
    Electronic ISSN: 1932-6203
    Topics: Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
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  • 89
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: During the Paleolithic period, bone marrow extraction was an essential source of fat nutrients for hunter-gatherers especially throughout cold and dry seasons. This is attested by the recurrent findings of percussion marks in osteological material from anthropized archaeological levels. Among them some showed indicators that the marrow extraction process was part of a butchery cultural practice, meaning that the inflicted fracturing gestures and techniques were recurrent, standardized and counter-intuitive. In order to assess the weight of the counter-intuitive factor in the percussion mark pattern distribution, we carried out an experiment that by contrast focuses on the intuitive approach of fracturing bones to extract marrow, involving individual without experience in this activity. We wanted to evaluate the influence of bone morphology and the individuals’ behaviour on the distribution of percussion marks. Twelve experimenters broke 120 limb bones, a series of 10 bones per individual. During the experiment, information concerning the fracture of the bones as well as individual behaviour was collected and was subsequently compared to data from the laboratory study of the remains. Then, we applied an innovative GIS (Geographic Information System) method to analyze the distribution of percussion marks to highlight recurrent patterns. Results show that in spite of all the variables there is a high similarity in the distribution of percussion marks which we consider as intuitive patterns. The factor influenced the distribution for the humerus, radius-ulna and tibia series is the bone morphology, while for the femur series individual behaviour seems to have more weight in the distribution. To go further in the subject we need to compare the intuitive models with the distributions of percussion marks registered in fossil assemblages. Thus, it would be possible to propose new hypotheses on butchering practices based on the results presented in this work.
    Electronic ISSN: 1932-6203
    Topics: Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
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  • 90
    Publication Date: 2021-09-08
    Description: This study examines historical simulations of ENSO in the E3SM-1-0, CESM2, and GFDL-CM4 climate models, provided by three leading U.S. modeling centers as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). These new models have made substantial progress in simulating ENSO’s key features, including: amplitude; timescale; spatial patterns; phase-locking; spring persistence barrier; and recharge oscillator dynamics. However, some important features of ENSO are still a challenge to simulate. In the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, the models’ weaker-than-observed subsurface zonal current anomalies and zonal temperature gradient anomalies serve to weaken the nonlinear zonal advection of subsurface temperatures, leading to insufficient warm/cold asymmetry of ENSO’s sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). In the western equatorial Pacific, the models’ excessive simulated zonal SST gradients amplify their zonal temperature advection, causing their SSTA to extend farther west than observed. The models underestimate both ENSO’s positive dynamic feedbacks (due to insufficient zonal wind stress responses to SSTA) and its thermodynamic damping (due to insufficient convective cloud shading of eastern Pacific SSTA during warm events); compensation between these biases leads to realistic linear growth rates for ENSO, but for somewhat unrealistic reasons. The models also exhibit stronger-than-observed feedbacks onto eastern equatorial Pacific SSTAs from thermocline depth anomalies, which accelerates the transitions between events and shortens the simulated ENSO period relative to observations. Implications for diagnosing and simulating ENSO in climate models are discussed.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 91
    Publication Date: 2021-09-09
    Description: The all-sky assimilation of radiances from microwave instruments is developed in the 4D-EnVar analysis system at Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC). Assimilation of cloud-affected radiances from Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit A (AMSUA) temperature sounding channels 4 and 5 for non-precipitating scenes over the ocean surface is the focus of this study. Cloud-affected radiances are discarded in the ECCC operational data assimilation system due to the limitations of forecast model physics, radiative transfer models, and the strong non-linearity of the observation operator. In addition to using symmetric estimate of innovation standard deviation for quality control, a state-dependent observation error inflation is employed at the analysis stage. The background state clouds are scaled by a factor of 0.5 to compensate for a systematic overestimation by the forecast model, before being used in the observation operator. The changes in the fit of the background state to observations show mixed results. The number of AMSUA channels 4 and 5 assimilated observations in the all-sky experiment is 5-12% higher than in the operational system. The all-sky approach improves temperature analysis when verified against ECMWF operational analysis in the areas where the extra cloud-affected observations were assimilated. Statistically significant reductions in error standard deviation by 1-4% for the analysis and forecasts of temperature, specific humidity, and horizontal wind speed up to maximum 4 days were achieved in the all-sky experiment in the lower troposphere. These improvements result mainly from the use of cloud information for computing the observation-minus-background departures. The operational implementation of all-sky assimilation is planned for Fall 2021.
    Print ISSN: 0027-0644
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0493
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 92
    Publication Date: 2021-12-01
    Description: The reported decreasing trend of the annual tropical cyclone (TC) landfalls in southern China and increasing trend in southeastern China in recent decades are confirmed to be an abrupt shift occurring at the end of the twentieth century, based on a statistical analysis. The opposite trends in the two adjacent regions are often considered to be a result of tropical cyclone landfalls in southern China being deflected northward. However, it is demonstrated in this study that they are phenomenally independent. In fact, the abrupt decrease of TC landfalls in southern China occurs as a result of an abrupt decrease of the westward events in the postpeak season (October–December), which in turn is a consequence of a significant decrease of the TC genesis frequency in the southeastern part of the western North Pacific (WNP) Ocean basin. On the other hand, the abrupt increase of TC landfalls in southeastern China occurs because of an abrupt increase of the northwest events in the peak season (July–September), as the consequence of a statistically westward shift of TC genesis. The relevant variations of TC genesis are shown to be mainly caused by decreased relative vorticity and increased vertical wind shear, which, however, are intrinsically related to the accelerated zonal atmospheric circulation driven by a La Niña–like sea surface warming pattern over the WNP that developed after the end of twentieth century.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 93
    Publication Date: 2021-09-09
    Description: The reproducibility of precipitation in the early stages of forecasts, often called a spin-down or spin-up problem, has been a significant issue in numerical weather prediction. This problem is caused by moisture imbalance in the analysis data, and in the case of the Japan Meteorological Agency’s (JMA’s) mesoscale data assimilation system JNoVA, we found that the imbalance stems from the existence of unrealistic supersaturated states in the minimal solution of the cost function in JNoVA. Based on the theory of constrained optimization problems, we implemented an exterior penalty function method for the mixing ratio within JNoVA to suppress unrealistic supersaturated states. The advantage of this method is the simplicity of its theory and implementation. The results of twin data assimilation cycle experiments conducted for the Heavy Rain Event of July 2018 over Japan show that—with the new method—unrealistic supersaturated states are reduced successfully, negative temperature bias to the observations is alleviated, and a sharper distribution of the mixing ratio is obtained. These changes help to initiate the development of convection at the proper location and improve the fractions skill score (FSS) of precipitation in the early stages of the forecast. From these results, we conclude that the initial shock caused by moisture imbalance is mitigated by implementing the penalty function method, and the new moisture balance has a positive impact on the reproducibility of precipitation in the early stages of forecasts.
    Print ISSN: 0027-0644
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0493
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 94
    Publication Date: 2021-09-22
    Description: Complex-terrain locations often have repeatable near-surface wind patterns, such as synoptic gap flows and local thermally forced flows. An example is the Columbia River Valley in east-central Oregon-Washington, a significant wind-energy-generation region and the site of the Second Wind-Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2). Data from three Doppler lidars deployed during WFIP2 define and characterize summertime wind regimes and their large-scale contexts, and provide insight into NWP model errors by examining differences in the ability of a model [NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid-Refresh (HRRR-version1)] to forecast wind-speed profiles for different regimes. Seven regimes were identified based on daily time series of the lidar-measured rotor-layer winds, which then suggested two broad categories. First, in three regimes the primary dynamic forcing was the large-scale pressure gradient. Second, in two regimes the dominant forcing was the diurnal heating-cooling cycle (regional sea-breeze-type dynamics), including the marine intrusion previously described, which generates strong nocturnal winds over the region. The other two included a hybrid regime and a non-conforming regime. For the large-scale pressure-gradient regimes, HRRR had wind-speed biases of ~1 m s−1 and RMSEs of 2-3 m s−1. Errors were much larger for the thermally forced regimes, owing to the premature demise of the strong nocturnal flow in HRRR. Thus, the more dominant the role of surface heating in generating the flow, the larger the errors. Major errors could result from surface heating of the atmosphere, boundary-layer responses to that heating, and associated terrain interactions. Measurement/modeling research programs should be aimed at determining which modeled processes produce the largest errors, so those processes can be improved and errors reduced.
    Print ISSN: 0882-8156
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0434
    Topics: Geography , Physics
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  • 95
    Publication Date: 2021-09-14
    Description: Forecasts of marine cold air outbreaks critically rely on the interplay of multiple parameterisation schemes to represent sub-grid scale processes, including shallow convection, turbulence, and microphysics. Even though such an interplay has been recognised to contribute to forecast uncertainty, a quantification of this interplay is still missing. Here, we investigate the tendencies of temperature and specific humidity contributed by individual parameterisation schemes in the operational weather prediction model AROME-Arctic. From a case study of an extensive marine cold air outbreak over the Nordic Seas, we find that the type of planetary boundary layer assigned by the model algorithm modulates the contribution of individual schemes and affects the interactions between different schemes. In addition, we demonstrate the sensitivity of these interactions to an increase or decrease in the strength of the parameterised shallow convection. The individual tendencies from several parameterisations can thereby compensate each other, sometimes resulting in a small residual. In some instances this residual remains nearly unchanged between the sensitivity experiments, even though some individual tendencies differ by up to an order of magnitude. Using the individual tendency output, we can characterise the subgrid-scale as well as grid-scale responses of the model and trace them back to their underlying causes. We thereby highlight the utility of individual tendency output for understanding process-related differences between model runs with varying physical configurations and for the continued development of numerical weather prediction models.
    Print ISSN: 0882-8156
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0434
    Topics: Geography , Physics
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  • 96
    Publication Date: 2021-09-15
    Description: This study explores the possibilities of employing machine learning algorithms to predict foehn occurrence in Switzerland at a north-Alpine (Altdorf) and south-Alpine (Lugano) station from its synoptic fingerprint in reanalysis data and climate simulations. This allows for an investigation on a potential future shift in monthly foehn frequencies. First, inputs from various atmospheric fields from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis-Interim (ERAI) were used to train an XGBoost model. Here, similar predictive performance to previous work was achieved, showing that foehn can accurately be diagnosed from the coarse synoptic situation. In the next step, the algorithm was generalized to predict foehn based on Community Earth System Model (CESM) ensemble simulations of a present-day and warming future climate. The best generalization between ERAI and CESM was obtained by including the present-day data in the training procedure and simultaneously optimizing two objective functions, namely the negative log loss and squared mean loss, on both datasets, respectively. It is demonstrated that the same synoptic fingerprint can be identified in CESM climate simulation data. Finally, predictions for present-day and future simulations were verified and compared for statistical significance. Our model is shown to produce valid output for most months, revealing that south foehn in Altdorf is expected to become more common during spring, while north foehn in Lugano is expected to become more common during summer.
    Print ISSN: 0882-8156
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0434
    Topics: Geography , Physics
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  • 97
    Publication Date: 2021-09-09
    Description: As a key to modulate the negative feedback to tropical cyclone (TC) intensity, the TC-induced inner-core sea surface cooling (SSCIC) is poorly understood. Using a linear two-layer theory and OGCM experiments, this study illustrates that the pattern of the inner-core mixing can be well interpreted by the wind-driven currents in the mixed layer (ML). This interpretation is based on: 1) the mixing is triggered by the ML bulk shear instability; 2) the lag of upwelling makes the inner-core bulk shear equivalent to the inner-core wind-driven currents. Overall, the patterns of the inner-core bulk shear and mixing resemble the crescent body of a sickle. As an accumulative result of mixing, the SSCIC is clearly weaker than the maximum cold wake because of the weaker mixing ahead of the inner core and nearly zero mixing in a part of the inner core. The SSCIC induced by a rectilinear-track TC is mainly dominated by the inner-core mixing. Only for a slow-moving case, upwelling and horizontal advection can make minor contributions to the SSCIC by incorporating them with mixing. The SSCIC strength is inversely proportional to the moving speed, suggesting the mixing time rather than the mixing strength dominates the SSCIC. Despite inability in treating the mixing strength, this study elucidates the fundamental dynamical mechanisms of SSCIC, especially emphasizes the different roles of mixing, upwelling and horizontal advection for fast- and slow-moving TCs, and thus provides a good start point to understand SSCIC.
    Print ISSN: 0022-3670
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0485
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 98
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: The annual assessment of Family Planning (FP) indicators, such as the modern contraceptive prevalence rate (mCPR), is a key component of monitoring and evaluating goals of global FP programs and initiatives. To that end, the Family Planning Estimation Model (FPEM) was developed with the aim of producing survey-informed estimates and projections of mCPR and other key FP indictors over time. With large-scale surveys being carried out on average every 3–5 years, data gaps since the most recent survey often exceed one year. As a result, survey-based estimates for the current year from FPEM are often based on projections that carry a larger uncertainty than data informed estimates. In order to bridge recent data gaps we consider the use of a measure, termed Estimated Modern Use (EMU), which has been derived from routinely collected family planning service statistics. However, EMU data come with known limitations, namely measurement errors which result in biases and additional variation with respect to survey-based estimates of mCPR. Here we present a data model for the incorporation of EMU data into FPEM, which accounts for these limitations. Based on known biases, we assume that only changes in EMU can inform FPEM estimates, while also taking inherent variation into account. The addition of this EMU data model to FPEM allows us to provide a secondary data source for informing and reducing uncertainty in current estimates of mCPR. We present model validations using a survey-only model as a baseline comparison and we illustrate the impact of including the EMU data model in FPEM. Results show that the inclusion of EMU data can change point-estimates of mCPR by up to 6.7 percentage points compared to using surveys only. Observed reductions in uncertainty were modest, with the width of uncertainty intervals being reduced by up to 2.7 percentage points.
    Electronic ISSN: 1932-6203
    Topics: Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
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  • 99
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: Background Nigeria has a high burden of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, commonly acquired through vertical transmission. However, there is a lack of an efficient surveillance system for monitoring and understanding the epidemiology of HBV among pregnant women. Building on a previous review on the prevalence of HBV in Nigeria (2000–2013), we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of HBV prevalence among pregnant women in Nigeria. Methods Four electronic databases PubMed, Embase, Global Health, and Scopus were systematically searched from January 2014 to February 2021. We also searched the African Journal Online and manually scanned the reference lists of the identified studies for potentially eligible articles. Observational studies that reported the prevalence of HBsAg and/or HBeAg among pregnant women in peer-reviewed journals were included in the study. We performed a meta-analysis using a random-effects model. We defined HBV infection as a positive test to HBsAg. Results From the 158 studies identified, 20 studies with a total sample size of 26, 548 were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled prevalence of HBV infection among pregnant women across the studies was 6.49% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 4.75–8.46%; I2 = 96.7%, p = 0.001; n = 20). The prevalence of HBV was significantly lower among pregnant women with at least secondary education compared with those with no education or primary education (prevalence ratio = 0.7, 95% CI = 0.58–0.87; n = 10). However, the prevalence of HBV was not significantly different by age, religion, marital status, or tribe. The prevalence of HBV was not significantly different among pregnant women with previous surgery, blood transfusion, multiple lifetime sex partners, tribal marks, tattoos, scarification, or sexually transmitted infections, compared with those without these risk factors. From a total sample size of 128 (n = 7), the pooled prevalence of HBeAg among HBV-infected pregnant women was 14.59% (95% CI = 4.58–27.99%; I2 = 65.5%, p = 0.01). Subgroup analyses of HBV infection by study region and screening method, and meta-regression analysis of the study year, sample size, and quality rating were not statistically significant. Conclusions There is an intermediate endemicity of HBV infection among pregnant women in Nigeria. Interventions, such as routine antenatal HBV screening, antiviral prophylaxis for eligible pregnant women, and infant HBV vaccination should be scaled up for the prevention of perinatal transmission of HBV infection in Nigeria.
    Electronic ISSN: 1932-6203
    Topics: Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
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  • 100
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: Background The objective of this study was to compare the prognostic impact of sarcopenia in patients with head and neck cancer (HNC) treated with surgery or radiation. Methods We systematically searched electronic databases to identify articles reporting the impact of sarcopenia on the prognosis of patients with HNC. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS), and disease-specific survival (DSS) were extracted and pooled. HR according to treatment modality were estimated using random-effects models. Statistical analyses were carried out using the Comprehensive Meta-Analysis software. Results In total, 18 studies enrolling 3,233 patients were included. Sarcopenia was associated with poor OS in both surgery and radiotherapy groups (hazard ratio [HR] 2.50, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.95–3.21; HR 1.63, 95% CI 1.40–1.90, respectively). The HR was significantly higher in the surgery group than in the radiotherapy group (p = 0.004), with similar results obtained for DFS (HR 2.59, 95% CI 1.56–4.31; HR 1.56, 95% CI 1.24–1.97 for the surgery and radiotherapy groups, respectively) and DSS (HR 2.96, 95% CI 0.73–11.95; HR 2.67, 95% CI 1.51–4.73 for the surgery and RT groups, respectively). Conclusions Sarcopenia was a poor prognostic factor for HNC, regardless of the treatment modality. However, the adverse effects of sarcopenia on survival were more prominent in the surgery group than in the radiotherapy group. Sarcopenia assessment is required for appropriate treatment decision-making.
    Electronic ISSN: 1932-6203
    Topics: Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
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