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  • 1
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, 35(23), pp. 7811-7831, ISSN: 0894-8755
    Publication Date: 2023-06-23
    Description: Numerical simulations allow us to gain a comprehensive understanding of the underlying mechanisms of past, present, and future climate changes. The mid-Holocene (MH) and the last interglacial (LIG) were the two most recent warm episodes of Earth’s climate history and are the focus of paleoclimate research. Here, we present results of MH and LIG simulations with two versions of the state-of-the-art Earth system model AWI-ESM. Most of the climate changes in MH and LIG compared to the preindustrial era are agreed upon by the two model versions, including 1) enhanced seasonality in surface temperature that is driven by the redistribution of seasonal insolation; 2) a northward shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and tropical rain belt; 3) a reduction in annual mean Arctic sea ice concentration; 4) weakening and northward displacement of the Northern Hemisphere Hadley circulation, which is related to the decrease and poleward shift of the temperature gradient from the subtropical to the equator in the Northern Hemisphere; 5) a westward shift of the Indo-Pacific Walker circulation due to anomalous warming over the Eurasia and North Africa during boreal summer; and 6) an expansion and intensification of Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon rainfall, with the latter being dominated by the dynamic component of moisture budget (i.e., the strengthening of wind circulation). However, the simulated responses of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in the two models yield different results for both the LIG and the MH. AMOC anomalies between the warm interglacial and preindustrial periods are associated with changes in North Atlantic westerly winds and stratification of the water column at the North Atlantic due to changes in ocean temperature, salinity, and density.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 2
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    Cambridge University Press
    In:  EPIC3https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/, Cambridge University Press, pp. 197-377
    Publication Date: 2023-04-17
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Inbook , peerRev
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2023-10-26
    Description: It has been recently proposed DeVito [(2019) On the meaning of Fermi's paradox. Futures, 389–414] that a minimal number of contacts with alien radio-communicative civilizations could be justified by their logarithmically slow rate of growth in the Galaxy. Here we further develop this approach to the Fermi paradox, with the purpose of expanding the ensemble of the possible styles of growth that are consistent with the hypothesis of a minimal number of contacts. Generalizing the approach in DeVito (2019), we show that a logarithmic style of growth is still found. We also find that a style of growth following a power law would be admissible, however characterized by an exponent less than one, hence describing a sublinear increase in the number of communicative civilizations, still qualitatively in agreement with DeVito (2019). No solutions are found indicating a superlinear increase in the number of communicative civilizations, following for example an exponentially diverging law, which would cause, in the long run, an unsustainable proliferation. Although largely speculative, our findings corroborate the idea that a sublinear rate of increase in the number of communicative civilizations in the Galaxy could constitute a further resolution of Fermi paradox, implying a constant and minimal – but not zero – number of contacts.
    Description: Published
    Description: 314-319
    Description: 1TR. Georisorse
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2023-02-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 52(11), (2022): 2841–2852, https://doi.org/10.1175/jpo-d-22-0025.1.
    Description: Prediction of rapid intensification in tropical cyclones prior to landfall is a major societal issue. While air–sea interactions are clearly linked to storm intensity, the connections between the underlying thermal conditions over continental shelves and rapid intensification are limited. Here, an exceptional set of in situ and satellite data are used to identify spatial heterogeneity in sea surface temperatures across the inner core of Hurricane Sally (2020), a storm that rapidly intensified over the shelf. A leftward shift in the region of maximum cooling was observed as the hurricane transited from the open gulf to the shelf. This shift was generated, in part, by the surface heat flux in conjunction with the along- and across-shelf transport of heat from storm-generated coastal circulation. The spatial differences in the sea surface temperatures were large enough to potentially influence rapid intensification processes suggesting that coastal thermal features need to be accounted for to improve storm forecasting as well as to better understand how climate change will modify interactions between tropical cyclones and the coastal ocean.
    Description: This research was made possible by the NOAA RESTORE Science Program (NA17NOS4510101 and NA19NOS4510194) and the NASA Physical Oceanography program (80NSSC21K0553 and WBS 281945.02.25.04.67) and NOAA IOOS program via GCOOS (NA16NOS0120018). The authors declare that they have no competing interests.
    Keywords: Seas/gulfs/bays ; Atmosphere–ocean interaction ; Currents ; Tropical cyclones ; Buoy observations ; In situ oceanic observations
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2023-02-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 52(8), (2022): 1797–1815, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-21-0288.1.
    Description: Intruding slope water is a major source of nutrients to sustain the high biological productivity in the Gulf of Maine (GoM). Slope water intrusion into the GoM is affected by Gulf Stream warm-core rings (WCRs) impinging onto the nearby shelf edge. This study combines long-term mooring measurements, satellite remote sensing data, an idealized numerical ocean model, and a linear coastal-trapped wave (CTW) model to examine the impact of WCRs on slope water intrusion into the GoM through the Northeast Channel. Analysis of satellite sea surface height and temperature data shows that the slope sea region off the GoM is a hotspot of ring activities. A significant linear relationship is found between interannual variations of ring activities in the slope sea region off the GoM and bottom salinity at the Northeast Channel, suggesting the importance of WCRs in modulating variability of intruding slope water. Analysis of the mooring data reveals enhanced slope water intrusion through bottom-intensified along-channel flow following impingements of WCRs on the nearby shelf edge. Numerical simulations qualitatively reproduce the observed WCR impingement processes and associated episodic enhancement of slope water intrusion in the Northeast Channel. Diagnosis of the model result indicates that baroclinic CTWs excited by the ring–topography interaction are responsible for the episodically intensified subsurface along-channel inflow, which carries more slope water into the GoM. A WCR that impinges onto the shelf edge to the northeast of the Northeast Channel tends to generate stronger CTWs and cause stronger enhancement of the slope water intrusion into the GoM.
    Description: This study is supported by the National Science Foundation through Grant OCE-1634965.
    Keywords: Continental shelf/slope ; Channel flows ; Mesoscale processes ; In situ oceanic observations ; Satellite observations ; Numerical analysis/modeling
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 6
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, pp. 1-40, ISSN: 0894-8755
    Publication Date: 2023-09-04
    Description: 〈jats:title〉Abstract〈/jats:title〉 〈jats:p〉Tipping points in the Earth system describe critical thresholds beyond which a single component, part of the system, or the system as a whole changes from one stable state to another. In the present-day Southern Ocean, the Weddell Sea constitutes an important dense-water formation site, associated with efficient deep-ocean carbon and oxygen transfer and low ice-shelf basal melt rates. Here, a regime shift will occur when continental shelves are continuously flushed with warm, oxygen-poor offshore waters from intermediate depth, leading to less efficient deep-ocean carbon and oxygen transfer and higher ice-shelf basal melt rates. We use a global ocean–biogeochemistry model including ice-shelf cavities and an eddy-permitting grid in the southern Weddell Sea to address the susceptibility of this region to such a system change for four 21〈jats:sup〉st〈/jats:sup〉-century emission scenarios. Assessing the projected changes in shelf–open ocean density gradients, bottom-water properties, and on-shelf heat transport, our results indicate that the Weddell Sea undergoes a regime shift by 2100 in the highest-emission scenario SSP5-8.5, but not yet in the lower-emission scenarios. The regime shift is imminent by 2100 in the scenarios SSP3-7.0 and SSP2-4.5, but avoidable under the lowest-emission scenario SSP1-2.6. While shelf-bottom waters freshen and acidify everywhere, bottom waters in the Filchner Trough undergo accelerated warming and deoxygenation following the system change, with implications for local ecosystems and ice-shelf basal melt. Additionally, deep-ocean carbon and oxygen transfer decline, implying that the local changes ultimately affect ocean circulation, climate, and ecosystems globally.〈/jats:p〉
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2023-04-26
    Description: Mechanisms behind the phenomenon of Arctic amplification are widely discussed. To contribute to this debate, the (AC)3 project was established in 2016 (www.ac3-tr.de/). It comprises modeling and data analysis efforts as well as observational elements. The project has assembled a wealth of ground-based, airborne, shipborne, and satellite data of physical, chemical, and meteorological properties of the Arctic atmosphere, cryosphere, and upper ocean that are available for the Arctic climate research community. Short-term changes and indications of long-term trends in Arctic climate parameters have been detected using existing and new data. For example, a distinct atmospheric moistening, an increase of regional storm activities, an amplified winter warming in the Svalbard and North Pole regions, and a decrease of sea ice thickness in the Fram Strait and of snow depth on sea ice have been identified. A positive trend of tropospheric bromine monoxide (BrO) column densities during polar spring was verified. Local marine/biogenic sources for cloud condensation nuclei and ice nucleating particles were found. Atmospheric–ocean and radiative transfer models were advanced by applying new parameterizations of surface albedo, cloud droplet activation, convective plumes and related processes over leads, and turbulent transfer coefficients for stable surface layers. Four modes of the surface radiative energy budget were explored and reproduced by simulations. To advance the future synthesis of the results, cross-cutting activities are being developed aiming to answer key questions in four focus areas: lapse rate feedback, surface processes, Arctic mixed-phase clouds, and airmass transport and transformation.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2023-01-27
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 52(8), (2022): 1705-1730, https://doi.org/10.1175/jpo-d-21-0243.1.
    Description: Formation and evolution of barrier layers (BLs) and associated temperature inversions (TIs) were investigated using a 1-yr time series of oceanic and air–sea surface observations from three moorings deployed in the eastern Pacific fresh pool. BL thickness and TI amplitude showed a seasonality with maxima in boreal summer and autumn when BLs were persistently present. Mixed layer salinity (MLS) and mixed layer temperature (MLT) budgets were constructed to investigate the formation mechanism of BLs and TIs. The MLS budget showed that BLs were initially formed in response to horizontal advection of freshwater in boreal summer and then primarily maintained by precipitation. The MLT budget revealed that penetration of shortwave radiation through the mixed layer base is the dominant contributor to TI formation through subsurface warming. Geostrophic advection is a secondary contributor to TI formation through surface cooling. When the BL exists, the cooling effect from entrainment and the warming effect from detrainment are both significantly reduced. In addition, when the BL is associated with the presence of a TI, entrainment works to warm the mixed layer. The presence of BLs makes the shallower mixed layer more sensitive to surface heat and freshwater fluxes, acting to enhance the formation of TIs that increase the subsurface warming via shortwave penetration.
    Description: SK is supported by JSPS Overseas Research Fellowships. JS and SK are supported by NASA Grant 80NSSC18K1500. JTF and the mooring deployment were funded by NASA Grants NNX15AG20G and 80NSSC18K1494. DZ is supported by NASA Grant 80NSSC18K1499. This publication is partially funded by the Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean, and Ecosystem Studies (CICOES) under NOAA Cooperative Agreement NA20OAR4320271, Contribution 2021-1152. This is PMEL Contribution 5268.
    Description: 2023-01-27
    Keywords: Ocean ; North Pacific Ocean ; Tropics ; Entrainment ; Oceanic mixed layer ; Salinity
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2023-02-01
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 52(8), (2022): 1927-1943, https://doi.org/10.1175/jpo-d-21-0124.1.
    Description: The Galápagos Archipelago lies on the equator in the path of the eastward flowing Pacific Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC). When the EUC reaches the archipelago, it upwells and bifurcates into a north and south branch around the archipelago at a latitude determined by topography. Since the Coriolis parameter (f) equals zero at the equator, strong velocity gradients associated with the EUC can result in Ertel potential vorticity (Q) having sign opposite that of planetary vorticity near the equator. Observations collected by underwater gliders deployed just west of the Galápagos Archipelago during 2013–16 are used to estimate Q and to diagnose associated instabilities that may impact the Galápagos Cold Pool. Estimates of Q are qualitatively conserved along streamlines, consistent with the 2.5-layer, inertial model of the EUC by Pedlosky. The Q with sign opposite of f is advected south of the Galápagos Archipelago when the EUC core is located south of the bifurcation latitude. The horizontal gradient of Q suggests that the region between 2°S and 2°N above 100 m is barotropically unstable, while limited regions are baroclinically unstable. Conditions conducive to symmetric instability are observed between the EUC core and the equator and within the southern branch of the undercurrent. Using 2-month and 3-yr averages, e-folding time scales are 2–11 days, suggesting that symmetric instability can persist on those time scales.
    Description: This work was supported by the National Science Foundation (Grants OCE-1232971 and OCE-1233282), the NASA Earth and Space Science Fellowship Program (Grant 80NSSC17K0443), and the Global Ocean Monitoring and Observing Program of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NA13OAR4830216). Color maps are from Thyng et al. (2016).
    Description: 2023-02-01
    Keywords: Currents ; In situ oceanic observations ; Instability ; Mixing ; Ocean dynamics ; Pacific Ocean ; Potential vorticity ; Tropics
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2023-02-01
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of the Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 39(8), (2022): 1183-1198, https://doi.org/10.1175/jtech-d-21-0068.1.
    Description: Horizontal kinematic properties, such as vorticity, divergence, and lateral strain rate, are estimated from drifter clusters using three approaches. At submesoscale horizontal length scales O(1–10)km, kinematic properties become as large as planetary vorticity f, but challenging to observe because they evolve on short time scales O(hourstodays). By simulating surface drifters in a model flow field, we quantify the sources of uncertainty in the kinematic property calculations due to the deformation of cluster shape. Uncertainties arise primarily due to (i) violation of the linear estimation methods and (ii) aliasing of unresolved scales. Systematic uncertainties (iii) due to GPS errors, are secondary but can become as large as (i) and (ii) when aspect ratios are small. Ideal cluster parameters (number of drifters, length scale, and aspect ratio) are determined and error functions estimated empirically and theoretically. The most robust method—a two-dimensional, linear least squares fit—is applied to the first few days of a drifter dataset from the Bay of Bengal. Application of the length scale and aspect-ratio criteria minimizes errors (i) and (ii), and reduces the total number of clusters and so computational cost. The drifter-estimated kinematic properties map out a cyclonic mesoscale eddy with a surface, submesoscale fronts at its perimeter. Our analyses suggest methodological guidance for computing the two-dimensional kinematic properties in submesoscale flows, given the recently increasing quantity and quality of drifter observations, while also highlighting challenges and limitations.
    Description: This research was supported by the Office of Naval Research (ONR) Departmental Research Initiative ASIRI under Grant N00014-13-1-0451 (SE and AM) and Grant N00014-13-1-0477 (VH and LC). The authors thank the captain and crew of the R/V Roger Revelle, and Andrew Lucas with the Multiscale Ocean Dynamics group at the Scripps Institution for Oceanography for providing the FastCTD data collected in 2015, which was supported by ONR Grant N00014-13-1-0489, as well as Eric D’Asaro for helpful discussions and Lance Braasch for assistance with the drifter dataset. AM and SE further thank NSF (Grant OCE-I434788) and ONR (Grant N00014-16-1-2470) for support. VH and LC were additionally supported by ONR Grants N00014-15-1-2286, N00014-14-1-0183, N00014-19-1-26-91 and NOAA Global Drifter Program (GDP) Grant NA15OAR4320071.
    Description: 2023-02-01
    Keywords: Indian Ocean ; Eddies ; Frontogenesis/frontolysis ; Fronts ; Lagrangian circulation/transport ; Ocean circulation ; Ocean dynamics
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 11
    Publication Date: 2023-02-01
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 35(17), (2022): 5465-5482, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-21-0671.1.
    Description: Understanding the contribution of ocean circulation to glacial–interglacial climate change is a major focus of paleoceanography. Specifically, many have tried to determine whether the volumes and depths of Antarctic- and North Atlantic–sourced waters in the deep ocean changed at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ∼22–18 kyr BP) when atmospheric pCO2 concentrations were 100 ppm lower than the preindustrial. Measurements of sedimentary geochemical proxies are the primary way that these deep ocean structural changes have been reconstructed. However, the main proxies used to reconstruct LGM Atlantic water mass geometry provide conflicting results as to whether North Atlantic–sourced waters shoaled during the LGM. Despite this, a number of idealized modeling studies have been advanced to describe the physical processes resulting in shoaled North Atlantic waters. This paper aims to critically assess the approaches used to determine LGM Atlantic circulation geometry and lay out best practices for future work. We first compile existing proxy data and paleoclimate model output to deduce the processes responsible for setting the ocean distributions of geochemical proxies in the LGM Atlantic Ocean. We highlight how small-scale mixing processes in the ocean interior can decouple tracer distributions from the large-scale circulation, complicating the straightforward interpretation of geochemical tracers as proxies for water mass structure. Finally, we outline promising paths toward ascertaining the LGM circulation structure more clearly and deeply.
    Description: S.K.H. was supported by the Investment in Science Fund at WHOI and the John E. and Anne W. Sawyer Endowed Fund in Support of Scientific Staff. F.J.P. was supported by a Stanback Postdoctoral Fellowship at Caltech.
    Description: 2023-02-01
    Keywords: Diapycnal mixing ; Meridional overturning circulation ; Ocean circulation
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  • 12
    Publication Date: 2023-02-17
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of the Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 39(10), (2022): 1525–1539, https://doi.org/10.1175/jtech-d-21-0186.1.
    Description: The static and dynamic performances of the RBRargo3 are investigated using a combination of laboratory-based and in situ datasets from floats deployed as part of an Argo pilot program. Temperature and pressure measurements compare well to co-located reference data acquired from shipboard CTDs. Static accuracy of salinity measurements is significantly improved using 1) a time lag for temperature, 2) a quadratic pressure dependence, and 3) a unit-based calibration for each RBRargo3 over its full pressure range. Long-term deployments show no significant drift in the RBRargo3 accuracy. The dynamic response of the RBRargo3 demonstrates the presence of two different adjustment time scales: a long-term adjustment O(120) s, driven by the temperature difference between the interior of the conductivity cell and the water, and a short-term adjustment O(5–10) s, associated to the initial exchange of heat between the water and the inner ceramic. Corrections for these effects, including dependence on profiling speed, are developed.
    Keywords: Data processing/distribution ; In situ oceanic observations ; Profilers ; Oceanic
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  • 13
    Publication Date: 2023-02-28
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 52(12),(2022): 3199-3219, https://doi.org/10.1175/jpo-d-22-0009.1.
    Description: The abyssal overturning circulation is thought to be primarily driven by small-scale turbulent mixing. Diagnosed water-mass transformations are dominated by rough topography “hotspots,” where the bottom enhancement of mixing causes the diffusive buoyancy flux to diverge, driving widespread downwelling in the interior—only to be overwhelmed by an even stronger upwelling in a thin bottom boundary layer (BBL). These water-mass transformations are significantly underestimated by one-dimensional (1D) sloping boundary layer solutions, suggesting the importance of three-dimensional physics. Here, we use a hierarchy of models to generalize this 1D boundary layer approach to three-dimensional eddying flows over realistically rough topography. When applied to the Mid-Atlantic Ridge in the Brazil Basin, the idealized simulation results are roughly consistent with available observations. Integral buoyancy budgets isolate the physical processes that contribute to realistically strong BBL upwelling. The downward diffusion of buoyancy is primarily balanced by upwelling along the sloping canyon sidewalls and the surrounding abyssal hills. These flows are strengthened by the restratifying effects of submesoscale baroclinic eddies and by the blocking of along-ridge thermal wind within the canyon. Major topographic sills block along-thalweg flows from restratifying the canyon trough, resulting in the continual erosion of the trough’s stratification. We propose simple modifications to the 1D boundary layer model that approximate each of these three-dimensional effects. These results provide local dynamical insights into mixing-driven abyssal overturning, but a complete theory will also require the nonlocal coupling to the basin-scale circulation.
    Description: We acknowledge funding support from National Science Foundation Awards 1536515, 1736109, and 2149080. This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship Program under Grant 174530.
    Description: 2023-05-18
    Keywords: Abyssal circulation ; Diapycnal mixing ; Meridional overturning circulation ; Topographic effects ; Upwelling/downwelling ; Bottom currents/bottom water
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  • 14
    Publication Date: 2023-02-28
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 52(6), (2022): 1091–1110, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-21-0068.1.
    Description: Hundreds of full-depth temperature and salinity profiles collected by Deepglider autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) in the North Atlantic reveal robust signals in eddy isopycnal vertical displacement and horizontal current throughout the entire water column. In separate glider missions southeast of Bermuda, subsurface-intensified cold, fresh coherent vortices were observed with velocities exceeding 20 cm s−1 at depths greater than 1000 m. With vertical resolution on the order of 20 m or less, these full-depth glider slant profiles newly permit estimation of scaled vertical wavenumber spectra from the barotropic through the 40th baroclinic mode. Geostrophic turbulence theory predictions of spectral slopes associated with the forward enstrophy cascade and proportional to inverse wavenumber cubed generally agree with glider-derived quasi-universal spectra of potential and kinetic energy found at a variety of locations distinguished by a wide range of mean surface eddy kinetic energy. Water-column average spectral estimates merge at high vertical mode number to established descriptions of internal wave spectra. Among glider mission sites, geographic and seasonal variability implicate bottom drag as a mechanism for dissipation, but also the need for more persistent sampling of the deep ocean.
    Description: This work was funded by NSF Grant 1736217 and would not have been possible without the help of Kirk O’Donnell, James Bennett, Noel Pelland, and all contributors to Deepglider development. We additionally thank the captain crew of the R/V Atlantic Explorer and the BATS team at the Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences, particularly Rod Johnson, as well as Seakeepers International for their professionalism, capability, and generous assistance in deploying and recovering gliders.
    Keywords: North Atlantic Ocean ; Eddies ; Mesoscale processes ; Turbulence ; Energy transport ; In situ oceanic observations ; Oceanic variability
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  • 15
    Publication Date: 2023-03-02
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 52(12), (2022): 3221–3240, https://doi.org/10.1175/jpo-d-22-0010.1.
    Description: Small-scale mixing drives the diabatic upwelling that closes the abyssal ocean overturning circulation. Indirect microstructure measurements of in situ turbulence suggest that mixing is bottom enhanced over rough topography, implying downwelling in the interior and stronger upwelling in a sloping bottom boundary layer. Tracer release experiments (TREs), in which inert tracers are purposefully released and their dispersion is surveyed over time, have been used to independently infer turbulent diffusivities—but typically provide estimates in excess of microstructure ones. In an attempt to reconcile these differences, Ruan and Ferrari derived exact tracer-weighted buoyancy moment diagnostics, which we here apply to quasi-realistic simulations. A tracer’s diapycnal displacement rate is exactly twice the tracer-averaged buoyancy velocity, itself a convolution of an asymmetric upwelling/downwelling dipole. The tracer’s diapycnal spreading rate, however, involves both the expected positive contribution from the tracer-averaged in situ diffusion as well as an additional nonlinear diapycnal distortion term, which is caused by correlations between buoyancy and the buoyancy velocity, and can be of either sign. Distortion is generally positive (stretching) due to bottom-enhanced mixing in the stratified interior but negative (contraction) near the bottom. Our simulations suggest that these two effects coincidentally cancel for the Brazil Basin Tracer Release Experiment, resulting in negligible net distortion. By contrast, near-bottom tracers experience leading-order distortion that varies in time. Errors in tracer moments due to realistically sparse sampling are generally small (〈20%), especially compared to the O(1) structural errors due to the omission of distortion effects in inverse models. These results suggest that TREs, although indispensable, should not be treated as “unambiguous” constraints on diapycnal mixing.
    Description: We acknowledge funding support from National Science Foundation Awards 1536515 and 1736109. This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship Program under Grant 174530. This research is also supported by the NOAA Climate and Global Change Postdoctoral Fellowship Program, administered by UCAR’s Cooperative Programs for the Advancement of Earth System Science (CPAESS) under Award NA18NWS4620043B.
    Description: 2023-05-18
    Keywords: Diapycnal mixing ; Diffusion ; Upwelling/downwelling ; Bottom currents/bottom water ; Tracers
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  • 16
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    Wiley-Blackwell
    In:  EPIC3Reviews in Aquaculture, Wiley-Blackwell, ISSN: 1753-5123
    Publication Date: 2024-05-06
    Description: Mass mortality events (MMEs) are defined as the death of large numbers of fish over a short period of time. These events can result in catastrophic losses to the Atlantic salmon aquaculture industry and the local economy. However, they are challenging to understand because of their relative infrequency and the high number of potential factors involved. As a result, the causes and consequences of MMEs in Atlantic salmon aquaculture are not well understood. In this study, we developed a structural network of causal risk factors for MMEs for aquaculture and the communities that depend on Atlantic salmon aquaculture. Using the Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) technique, we analysed the causes of Atlantic salmon mass mortalities due to environmental (abiotic), biological (biotic) and nutritional risk factors. The consequences of MMEs were also assessed for the occupational health and safety of aquaculture workers and their implications for the livelihoods of local communities. This structural network deepens our understanding of MMEs and points to management actions and interventions that can help mitigate mass mortalities. MMEs are typically not the result of a single risk factor but are caused by the systematic interaction of risk factors related to the environment, fish diseases, feeding/nutrition and cage-site management. Results also indicate that considerations of health and safety risk, through pre- and post-event risk assessments, may help to minimize workplace injuries and eliminate potential risks of human fatalities. Company and government assisted socio-economic measures could help mitigate post-mass mortality impacts. Appropriate and timely management actions may help reduce MMEs at Atlantic salmon cage sites and minimize the physical and social vulnerabilities of workers and local communities.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 17
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Physical Oceanography, American Meteorological Society, 54(4), pp. 1003-1018, ISSN: 0022-3670
    Publication Date: 2024-04-25
    Description: Coastal upwelling, driven by alongshore winds and characterized by cold sea surface temperatures and high upper-ocean nutrient content, is an important physical process sustaining some of the oceans’ most productive ecosystems. To fully understand the ocean properties in eastern boundary upwelling systems, it is important to consider the depth of the source waters being upwelled, as it affects both the SST and the transport of nutrients toward the surface. Here, we construct an upwelling source depth distribution for parcels at the surface in the upwelling zone. We do so using passive tracers forced at the domain boundary for every model depth level to quantify their contributions to the upwelled waters. We test the dependence of this distribution on the strength of the wind stress and stratification using high-resolution regional ocean simulations of an idealized coastal upwelling system. We also present an efficient method for estimating the mean upwelling source depth. Furthermore, we show that the standard deviation of the upwelling source depth distribution increases with increasing wind stress and decreases with increasing stratification. These results can be applied to better understand and predict how coastal upwelling sites and their surface properties have and will change in past and future climates.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 18
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, 37(6), pp. 2059-2080, ISSN: 0894-8755
    Publication Date: 2024-04-22
    Description: Heat stress is projected to intensify with global warming, causing significant socioeconomic impacts and threatening human health. Wet-bulb temperature (WBT), which combines temperature and humidity effects, is a useful indicator for assessing regional and global heat stress variability and trends. However, the variations of European WBT and their underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Using observations and reanalysis datasets, we demonstrate a remarkable warming of summer WBT during the period 1958–2021 over Europe. Specifically, the European summer WBT has increased by over 1.08C in the past 64 years. We find that the increase in European summer WBT is driven by both near-surface warming temperatures and increasing atmospheric moisture content. We identify four dominant modes of European summer WBT variability and investigate their linkage with the large-scale atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature anomalies. The first two leading modes of the European WBT variability exhibit prominent interdecadal to long-term variations, mainly driven by a circumglobal wave train and concurrent sea surface temperature variations. The last two leading modes of European WBT variability mainly show interannual variations, indicating a direct and rapid response to large-scale atmospheric dynamics and nearby sea surface temperature variations. Further analysis shows the role of global warming and changes in midlatitude circulations in the variations of summer WBT. Our findings can enhance the understanding of plausible drivers of heat stress in Europe and provide valuable insights for regional decision-makers and climate adaptation planning.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 19
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    Cambridge University Press
    In:  EPIC3Climate Change 2022: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of the WGII to the 6th assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, IPCC AR WGII, Cambridge University Press
    Publication Date: 2024-04-30
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 20
    Publication Date: 2024-01-31
    Description: The response of permafrost to submergence can vary between ice-rich late Pleistocene deposits and the thermokarst basins that thawed out during the Holocene. We hypothesize that inundated Alases offshore thaw faster than submerged Yedoma. To test this hypothesis, we estimated depths to the top of ice-bearing permafrost offshore of the Bykovsky Peninsula in northeast Siberia using electrical resistivity surveys. The surveys traversed submerged lagoon deposits, drained and refrozen Alas deposits, and undisturbed Yedoma from the coastline to 373 m offshore. While the permafrost degradation rates of the submerged Yedoma were in the range of similar sites, the submerged Alas permafrost degradation rates were up to 170% faster. Given the abundance of thermokarst basins and lakes along parts of the Arctic coastline, its effect on subsea permafrost degradation must be similarly prevalent. Remote sensing analyses suggest that 54% of lagoons wider than 500 m originated in thermokarst basins.
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  • 21
    Publication Date: 2024-01-31
    Description: Permafrost thaw leads to thermokarst lake formation and talik growth tens of meters deep, enabling microbial decomposition of formerly frozen organic matter (OM). We analyzed two 17-m-long thermokarst lake sediment cores taken in Central Yakutia, Russia. One core was from an Alas lake in a Holocene thermokarst basin that underwent multiple lake generations, and the second core from a young Yedoma upland lake (formed ca. 70 years ago) whose sediments have thawed for the first time since deposition. This comparison provides a glance into OM fate in thawing Yedoma deposits. We analyzed total organic carbon (TOC) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) content, n-alkanes concentrations, and bacterial and archaeal membrane markers. Furthermore, we conducted one-year-long incubations (4 °C, dark) and measured anaerobic carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) production. The sediments from both cores contained little TOC (0.7±0.4 wt%), but DOC values were relatively high, with highest values in the frozen Yedoma lake sediments (1620 mg L-1). Cumulative GHG production after one year was highest in the Yedoma lake sediments (226±212 μg CO2-C gdw-1, 28±36 μg CH4-C gdw-1) and 3 and 1.5 times lower in the Alas lake sediments, respectively (75±76 μg CO2-C gdw-1, 19±29 μg CH4-C gdw-1). The highest CO2 production in the frozen Yedoma lake sediments likely results from decomposition of readily bioavailable OM, while highest CH4 production in the non-frozen top sediments of this core suggests that methanogenic communities established upon thaw. The lower GHG production in the non-frozen Alas lake sediments resulted from advanced OM decomposition during Holocene talik development. Furthermore, we found that drivers of CO2 and CH4 production differ following thaw. Our results suggest that GHG production from TOC-poor mineral deposits, which are widespread throughout the Arctic, can be substantial. Therefore, our novel data are relevant for vast ice-rich permafrost deposits vulnerable to thermokarst formation.
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  • 22
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    Wiley-Blackwell
    In:  EPIC3Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, Wiley-Blackwell, 32(1), pp. 59-75, ISSN: 1045-6740
    Publication Date: 2024-01-31
    Description: Thermal erosion is a major mechanism of permafrost degradation, resulting in characteristic landforms. We inventory thermo-erosional valleys in ice-rich coastal lowlands adjacent to the Siberian Laptev Sea based on remote sensing, Geographic Information System (GIS), and field investigations for a first regional assessment of their spatial distribution and characteristics. Three study areas with similar geological (Yedoma Ice Complex) but diverse geomorphological conditions vary in valley areal extent, incision depth, and branching geometry. The most extensive valley networks are incised deeply (up to 35 m) into the broad inclined lowland around Mamontov Klyk. The flat, low-lying plain forming the Buor Khaya Peninsula is more degraded by thermokarst and characterized by long valleys of lower depth with short tributaries. Small, isolated Yedoma Ice Complex remnants in the Lena River Delta predominantly exhibit shorter but deep valleys. Based on these hydrographical network and topography assessments, we discuss geomorphological and hydrological connections to erosion processes. Relative catchment size along with regional slope interact with other Holocene relief-forming processes such as thermokarst and neotectonics. Our findings suggest that thermo-erosional valleys are prominent, hitherto overlooked permafrost degradation landforms that add to impacts on biogeochemical cycling, sediment transport, and hydrology in the degrading Siberian Yedoma Ice Complex.
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  • 23
    Publication Date: 2024-03-22
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 24
    Publication Date: 2024-04-05
    Description: Seismic Rayleigh wave ellipticity measurements are the horizontal-to-vertical ratio of the Rayleigh wave particle motion, and are sensitive to the subsurface structure beneath a seismic station. H/V ratios measured from the ambient vibrations of the Earth are being increasingly used in glaciological applications to determine glacier and ice sheet thickness, seismic velocities and firn properties. Using the newly developed degree-of-polarisation (DOP-E) method which exploits the polarisation properties of seismic noise, we identify and extract Rayleigh waves from seismic stations in Greenland, and relate them to sea ice processes and the geology of the upper crust. Finally, we provide some suggestions for future applications of DOP-E method to gain greater insight into seasonal and long-term variability of sea ice formation and breakup as well as the monitoring of ice sheet thickness, subglacial environment and firn layers in the poles.
    Description: Published
    Description: 3-7
    Description: OST1 Alla ricerca dei Motori Geodinamici
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 25
    Publication Date: 2024-06-13
    Description: All Rights Reserved
    Description: Predicting coastal change depends upon our knowledge of postglacial relative sea-level variability, partly controlled by glacio-isostatic responses to ice-sheet melting. Here, we reconstruct the postglacial relative sea-level changes along the Caribbean and Pacific coasts of northwestern South America by numerically solving the sea-level equation with two scenarios of mantle viscosity: global standard average and high viscosity. Our results with the standard model (applicable to the Pacific coast) agree with earlier studies by indicating a mid-Northgrippian high stand of ~2 m. The high-viscosity simulation (relevant to the Caribbean coast) shows that the transition from far- to intermediate-field influence of the Laurentide Ice Sheet occurs between Manzanillo del Mar and the Gulf of Morrosquillo. South of this location, the Colombian Caribbean coast has exhibited a still stand with a nearly constant Holocene relative sea level. By analyzing our simulations considering sea-level indicators, we argue that tectonics is more prominent than previously assumed, especially along the Caribbean coast. This influence prevents a simplified view of regional relative sea-level changes on the northwestern South American coast.
    Description: Published
    Description: 28-43
    Description: OSA4: Ambiente marino, fascia costiera ed Oceanografia operativa
    Description: JCR Journal
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  • 26
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, 37(8), pp. 2505-2518, ISSN: 0894-8755
    Publication Date: 2024-06-21
    Description: A fundamental statistic of climate variability is its spatiotemporal correlation function. Its complex structure can be concisely summarized by a frequency-dependent measure of the effective spatial degrees of freedom (ESDOF). Here we present, for the first time, frequency-dependent ESDOF estimates of global natural surface temperature variability from purely instrumental measurements, using the HadCRUT4 dataset (1850-2014). The approach is based on a newly developed method for estimating the frequency-dependent spatial correlation function from gappy data fields. Results reveal a multicomponent structure of the spatial correlation function, including a large-amplitude short-distance component (with weak time scale dependence) and a small-amplitude long-distance component (with increasing relative amplitude toward the longer time scales). Two frequency-dependent ESDOF measures are applied, each responding mainly to either of the two components. Both measures exhibit a significant ESDOF reduction from monthly to multidecadal time scales, implying an increase of the effective spatial scale of natural surface temperature fluctuations. Moreover, it is found that a good approximation to the global number of equally spaced samples needed to estimate the variance of global mean temperature is given, at any frequency, by the greater one of the two ESDOF measures, decreasing from ;130 at monthly to ;30 at multidecadal time scales. Finally, the multicomponent structure of the correlation function together with the detected ESDOF scaling properties indicate that the ESDOF reduction toward the longer time scales cannot be explained simply by diffusion acting on stochastically driven anomalies, as it might be suggested f rom simple stochastic-diffusive energy balance models.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 27
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, 34(18), pp. 7373-7388, ISSN: 0894-8755
    Publication Date: 2024-06-21
    Description: Climate variability occurs over wide ranges of spatial and temporal scales. It exhibits a complex spatial covariance structure, which depends on geographic location (e.g., tropics vs extratropics) and also consists of a superposition of (i) components with gradually decaying positive correlation functions and (ii) teleconnections that often involve anticorrelations. In addition, there are indications that the spatial covariance structure depends on frequency. Thus, a comprehensive assessment of the spatiotemporal covariance structure of climate variability would require an extensive set of statistical diagnostics. Therefore, it is often desirable to characterize the covariance structure by a simple summarizing metric that is easy to compute from datasets. Such summarizing metrics are useful, for example, in the context of comparisons between climate models or between models and observations. Here we introduce a frequency-dependent version of a simple measure of the effective spatial degrees of freedom. The measure is based on the temporal variance of the global average of some climate variable, and its novel aspect consists in its frequency dependence. We also provide a clear geometric interpretation of the measure. Its easy applicability is demonstrated using near-surface temperature and precipitation fields obtained from a paleoclimate model simulation. This application reveals a distinct scaling behavior of the spatial degrees of freedom as a function of frequency, ranging from monthly to millennial scales.
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  • 28
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    Cambridge University Press
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Glaciology, Cambridge University Press, 67(261), pp. 84-90
    Publication Date: 2024-06-22
    Description: The validity of any glaciological paleo proxy used to interpret climate records is based on the level of understanding of their transfer from the atmosphere into the ice sheet and their recording in the snowpack. Large spatial noise in snow properties is observed, as the wind constantly redistributes the deposited snow at the surface routed by the local topography. To increase the signal-tonoise ratio and getting a representative estimate of snow properties with respect to the high spatial variability, a large number of snow profiles is needed. However, the classical way of obtaining profiles via snow-pits is time and energy-consuming, and thus unfavourable for large surface sampling programs. In response, we present a dual-tube technique to sample the upper metre of the snowpack at a variable depth resolution with high efficiency. The developed device is robust and avoids contact with the samples by exhibiting two tubes attached alongside each other in order to (1) contain the snow core sample and (2) to access the bottom of the sample, respectively. We demonstrate the performance of the technique through two case studies in East Antarctica where we analysed the variability of water isotopes at a 100 m and 5 km spatial scales.
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  • 29
    Publication Date: 2024-05-29
    Description: NORP-SORP Workshop on Polar Fresh Water: Sources, Pathways and Impacts of Freshwater in Northern and Southern Polar Oceans and Seas (SPICE-UP) What: Up to 60 participants at a time and more than twice as many registrants in total from 20 nations and across experience levels met to discuss the current status of research on freshwater in both polar regions, future directions, and synergies between the Arctic and Southern Ocean research communities When: 19–21 September 2022 Where: Online
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 30
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, American Meteorological Society, 104(9), pp. s1-s10, ISSN: 0003-0007
    Publication Date: 2024-05-29
    Description: 〈jats:title〉Abstract〈/jats:title〉 〈jats:p〉—J. BLUNDEN, T. BOYER, AND E. BARTOW-GILLIES〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉Earth’s global climate system is vast, complex, and intricately interrelated. Many areas are influenced by global-scale phenomena, including the “triple dip” La Niña conditions that prevailed in the eastern Pacific Ocean nearly continuously from mid-2020 through all of 2022; by regional phenomena such as the positive winter and summer North Atlantic Oscillation that impacted weather in parts the Northern Hemisphere and the negative Indian Ocean dipole that impacted weather in parts of the Southern Hemisphere; and by more localized systems such as high-pressure heat domes that caused extreme heat in different areas of the world. Underlying all these natural short-term variabilities are long-term climate trends due to continuous increases since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in the atmospheric concentrations of Earth’s major greenhouse gases.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉In 2022, the annual global average carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere rose to 417.1±0.1 ppm, which is 50% greater than the pre-industrial level. Global mean tropospheric methane abundance was 165% higher than its pre-industrial level, and nitrous oxide was 24% higher. All three gases set new record-high atmospheric concentration levels in 2022.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉Sea-surface temperature patterns in the tropical Pacific characteristic of La Niña and attendant atmospheric patterns tend to mitigate atmospheric heat gain at the global scale, but the annual global surface temperature across land and oceans was still among the six highest in records dating as far back as the mid-1800s. It was the warmest La Niña year on record. Many areas observed record or near-record heat. Europe as a whole observed its second-warmest year on record, with sixteen individual countries observing record warmth at the national scale. Records were shattered across the continent during the summer months as heatwaves plagued the region. On 18 July, 104 stations in France broke their all-time records. One day later, England recorded a temperature of 40°C for the first time ever. China experienced its second-warmest year and warmest summer on record. In the Southern Hemisphere, the average temperature across New Zealand reached a record high for the second year in a row. While Australia’s annual temperature was slightly below the 1991–2020 average, Onslow Airport in Western Australia reached 50.7°C on 13 January, equaling Australia's highest temperature on record.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉While fewer in number and locations than record-high temperatures, record cold was also observed during the year. Southern Africa had its coldest August on record, with minimum temperatures as much as 5°C below normal over Angola, western Zambia, and northern Namibia. Cold outbreaks in the first half of December led to many record-low daily minimum temperature records in eastern Australia.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉The effects of rising temperatures and extreme heat were apparent across the Northern Hemisphere, where snow-cover extent by June 2022 was the third smallest in the 56-year record, and the seasonal duration of lake ice cover was the fourth shortest since 1980. More frequent and intense heatwaves contributed to the second-greatest average mass balance loss for Alpine glaciers around the world since the start of the record in 1970. Glaciers in the Swiss Alps lost a record 6% of their volume. In South America, the combination of drought and heat left many central Andean glaciers snow free by mid-summer in early 2022; glacial ice has a much lower albedo than snow, leading to accelerated heating of the glacier. Across the global cryosphere, permafrost temperatures continued to reach record highs at many high-latitude and mountain locations.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉In the high northern latitudes, the annual surface-air temperature across the Arctic was the fifth highest in the 123-year record. The seasonal Arctic minimum sea-ice extent, typically reached in September, was the 11th-smallest in the 43-year record; however, the amount of multiyear ice—ice that survives at least one summer melt season—remaining in the Arctic continued to decline. Since 2012, the Arctic has been nearly devoid of ice more than four years old.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉In Antarctica, an unusually large amount of snow and ice fell over the continent in 2022 due to several landfalling atmospheric rivers, which contributed to the highest annual surface mass balance, 15% to 16% above the 1991–2020 normal, since the start of two reanalyses records dating to 1980. It was the second-warmest year on record for all five of the long-term staffed weather stations on the Antarctic Peninsula. In East Antarctica, a heatwave event led to a new all-time record-high temperature of −9.4°C—44°C above the March average—on 18 March at Dome C. This was followed by the collapse of the critically unstable Conger Ice Shelf. More than 100 daily low sea-ice extent and sea-ice area records were set in 2022, including two new all-time annual record lows in net sea-ice extent and area in February.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉Across the world’s oceans, global mean sea level was record high for the 11th consecutive year, reaching 101.2 mm above the 1993 average when satellite altimetry measurements began, an increase of 3.3±0.7 over 2021. Globally-averaged ocean heat content was also record high in 2022, while the global sea-surface temperature was the sixth highest on record, equal with 2018. Approximately 58% of the ocean surface experienced at least one marine heatwave in 2022. In the Bay of Plenty, New Zealand’s longest continuous marine heatwave was recorded.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉A total of 85 named tropical storms were observed during the Northern and Southern Hemisphere storm seasons, close to the 1991–2020 average of 87. There were three Category 5 tropical cyclones across the globe—two in the western North Pacific and one in the North Atlantic. This was the fewest Category 5 storms globally since 2017. Globally, the accumulated cyclone energy was the lowest since reliable records began in 1981. Regardless, some storms caused massive damage. In the North Atlantic, Hurricane Fiona became the most intense and most destructive tropical or post-tropical cyclone in Atlantic Canada’s history, while major Hurricane Ian killed more than 100 people and became the third costliest disaster in the United States, causing damage estimated at $113 billion U.S. dollars. In the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Batsirai dropped 2044 mm of rain at Commerson Crater in Réunion. The storm also impacted Madagascar, where 121 fatalities were reported.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉As is typical, some areas around the world were notably dry in 2022 and some were notably wet. In August, record high areas of land across the globe (6.2%) were experiencing extreme drought. Overall, 29% of land experienced moderate or worse categories of drought during the year. The largest drought footprint in the contiguous United States since 2012 (63%) was observed in late October. The record-breaking megadrought of central Chile continued in its 13th consecutive year, and 80-year record-low river levels in northern Argentina and Paraguay disrupted fluvial transport. In China, the Yangtze River reached record-low values. Much of equatorial eastern Africa had five consecutive below-normal rainy seasons by the end of 2022, with some areas receiving record-low precipitation totals for the year. This ongoing 2.5-year drought is the most extensive and persistent drought event in decades, and led to crop failure, millions of livestock deaths, water scarcity, and inflated prices for staple food items.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉In South Asia, Pakistan received around three times its normal volume of monsoon precipitation in August, with some regions receiving up to eight times their expected monthly totals. Resulting floods affected over 30 million people, caused over 1700 fatalities, led to major crop and property losses, and was recorded as one of the world’s costliest natural disasters of all time. Near Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Petrópolis received 530 mm in 24 hours on 15 February, about 2.5 times the monthly February average, leading to the worst disaster in the city since 1931 with over 230 fatalities.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉On 14–15 January, the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai submarine volcano in the South Pacific erupted multiple times. The injection of water into the atmosphere was unprecedented in both magnitude—far exceeding any previous values in the 17-year satellite record—and altitude as it penetrated into the mesosphere. The amount of water injected into the stratosphere is estimated to be 146±5 Terragrams, or ∼10% of the total amount in the stratosphere. It may take several years for the water plume to dissipate, and it is currently unknown whether this eruption will have any long-term climate effect.〈/jats:p〉
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  • 31
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, American Meteorological Society, 104(9), pp. s271-s321, ISSN: 0003-0007
    Publication Date: 2024-05-29
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 32
    Publication Date: 2024-05-29
    Description: We developed a high-resolution magnetochronology of the Pleistocene stratigraphy of the Monte Netto hillock, a tectonically uplifted struc ture in the Po Plain of northern Italy. Our data allowed reconstructing the depositional age of the sequence and assessing rates of defor mation and rock uplift of the neotectonic structure, thus providing constraints on the tectono-sedimentary evolution of this seismically active part of the buried Southern Alps. Using a combination of magnetostratigraphy and paleosecular variation analysis, we generated an age-depth model for the Monte Netto stratigraphy that encompasses, from the top, Upper Pleistocene (11–72 ka) loess-paleosols over laying fluvial sediments spanning the Brunhes-Matuyama boundary (773 ka) and the top of the Jaramillo (990 ka). The identification of the same magneto-chronostratigraphic surfaces in nearby drill cores from regions of the Po Plain that have not been affected by neotectonic deformation allowed estimating a mean rate of tectonic uplift of the hillock relative to the neighboring plain of 11.3 ± 1.5 cm/ka, and an absolute uplift relative to sea level of ∼19.3 cm/ka. Finally, our paleomagnetic analyses from the uppermost loess sequence disclosed the complexity of the tectonic evolution of the Monte Netto structure, which shows evidence of a two-phase rotational deformation linked to coseismic surface faulting due to recent seismic activity.
    Description: Published
    Description: 191-205
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Magnetochronology ; Pleistocene ; Paleosecular variations ; Loess-paleosols ; Neotectonic deformation ; Po Plain
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  • 33
    Publication Date: 2024-06-28
    Description: 〈jats:title〉Abstract〈/jats:title〉 〈jats:p〉This study quantifies the state-of-the-art in the rapidly growing field of seasonal Arctic sea ice prediction. A novel multi-model dataset of retrospective seasonal predictions of September Arctic sea ice is created and analyzed, consisting of community contributions from 17 statistical models and 17 dynamical models. Prediction skill is compared over the period 2001–2020 for predictions of Pan-Arctic sea ice extent (SIE), regional SIE, and local sea ice concentration (SIC) initialized on June 1, July 1, August 1, and September 1. This diverse set of statistical and dynamical models can individually predict linearly detrended Pan-Arctic SIE anomalies with skill, and a multi-model median prediction has correlation coefficients of 0.79, 0.86, 0.92, and 0.99 at these respective initialization times. Regional SIE predictions have similar skill to Pan-Arctic predictions in the Alaskan and Siberian regions, whereas regional skill is lower in the Canadian, Atlantic, and Central Arctic sectors. The skill of dynamical and statistical models is generally comparable for Pan-Arctic SIE, whereas dynamical models outperform their statistical counterparts for regional and local predictions. The prediction systems are found to provide the most value added relative to basic reference forecasts in the extreme SIE years of 1996, 2007, and 2012. SIE prediction errors do not show clear trends over time, suggesting that there has been minimal change in inherent sea ice predictability over the satellite era. Overall, this study demonstrates that there are bright prospects for skillful operational predictions of September sea ice at least three months in advance.〈/jats:p〉
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  • 34
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    The @journal of modern African studies 19 (1981), S. 1-6 
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    The @journal of modern African studies 19 (1981), S. 547-563 
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    Notes: In 1961, soon after the beginning of the first United Nations Development Decade, a conference of African Ministers of Education was convened by Unesco. The meeting resolved, inter alia, that by the year 1980 primary schooling throughout the continent should be ‘universal, compulsory and free’.1 As we have now reached that date, it is appropriate to review progress. A few countries have achieved the goal, but many others have fallen short. This article will examine the experience of the last two decades, and assess its implications for ultimate objectives and the strategies for achieving them. Despite national policy variations and divergent social and economic conditions, instructive overall patterns may be discerned.
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    The @journal of modern African studies 19 (1981), S. 565-594 
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    Notes: In the last few years there has been a growing interest in that very considerable and hitherto mostly unrecorded part of the economic life of the Third World which flourishes outside the state and foreign-owned medium and large-scale concerns. This great mass of non-enumerated enterprises and activities is a major source of employment and production. For the purpose of this article, it will be argued that many of those undertaking research in this sector can be regarded as belonging to one or other of two fairly distinct schools of thought formed by (1) a number of officials from the International Labour Organisation, the World Bank, and other international and government agencies, as well as some purely academic writers,1 and (2) the majority of social scientists attached to the British Sociological Association Development Group, some of whom operate to a greater or lesser extent within a Marxian or neo-Marxian perspective.2 For purposes of abbreviation only, these will be referred to as the ‘I.L.O.’ and the ‘Radical’ groups.
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    The @journal of modern African studies 19 (1981), S. 595-624 
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    Notes: In his classic study of decentralisation and development, Henry Maddick argued that economic growth and social modernisation depend in part on the ability of Third-World govenments to diffuse responsibility for development planning and administration, to expand participation in economic activities, and to promote new centres of creativity within society. Over-concentration of administrative authority stifles development, Maddick insisted; it leads to waste and corruption, delays action, and creates irrational and inefficient management practices, the costs of which developing countries cannot afford.1 To illustrate his point, Maddick cited the effects of the centralised supply system in the Sudan in the late 1950s, through which ‘shoes made in Fasher were sent 400 miles by rail to Khartoum where the whole shoe supply was concentrated. When Fasher wanted shoes for school children and government personnel it had to send to Khartoum for them.’ He also noted that school desks and equipment for the provincial city of Juba had to be ordered from Khartoum, which was 900 miles away and connected only by inefficient river transport, even though the wood from which the furniture was made originally came from Juba.2
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    The @journal of modern African studies 19 (1981), S. 625-646 
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    Notes: Theories of modernisation and social change have been increasingly challenged during the past decade by events in the Middle East and other areas of the developing world. Leaders of oil-rich nations are choosing to industrialise but not to westernise, and Islamic revivals are shaping new patterns of political and social development. For example, improvements in female status can no longer be regarded as the inevitable concomitants of industrialisation; to the contrary, gender inequality may actually be exacerbated by national resurgences of religious and cultural traditions which often accompany planned social change.1
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    The @journal of modern African studies 19 (1981), S. 647-665 
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    Notes: Foreign investment in South Africa during the past 20 years has been subject to criticism form several diverse schools of thought, ranging from those who believe it has contributed to country's economic growth without improving the condition of the black workers, to those who maintain that – at best – apartheid has been modernised rather than fundamentally changed.Today the focus of attention has shifted to collective bargaining and trade union rights, to the action that can be taken on their own behalf by the ecomomically underprivileged and the politically dispossessed, and to the assistance which foreign-owned companies have been given in improving the terms and conditions of employment of their own non-white employees by the codes of conduct that have quite recently been adopted by their own governments.
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    The @journal of modern African studies 19 (1981), S. 705-708 
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    The @journal of modern African studies 19 (1981), S. 667-704 
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    Notes: People of quite diverse social position and perspective have turned to economic growth as a source of political change in South Africa. Contained within the concept of growth, they maintain, are processes — capital accumulation and class formation, business enterprise and markets, changing skill and capital requirements – that, at the very least, allow some blacks a more secure and higher living standard, that may bring greater equality between the races, or more profoundly, confound traditional racial lines and privileges of quite diverse social position and perspective have turned to economic growth as a source of political change in South Africa. Contained within the concept of growth, they maintain, are processes — capital accumulation and class formation, business enterprise and markets, changing skill and capital requirements – that, at the very least, allow some blacks a more secure and higher living standard, that may bring greater equality between the races, or more profoundly, confound traditional racial lines and privileges. Indeed, some argue that growth undermines the foundations of the racial state. Many of those who posit a relationship between economics and politics, take the next logical step: supporting actions, including foreign investment, that foster economic growth and, presumably, political change in South Africa.
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    The @journal of modern African studies 19 (1981), S. 715-717 
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    The @journal of modern African studies 19 (1981), S. 717-719 
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    The @journal of modern African studies 19 (1981), S. 719-720 
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    The @journal of modern African studies 19 (1981), S. 722-728 
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    The @journal of modern African studies 19 (1981), S. 499-502 
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    Notes: Urban unemployment and underemployment are widespread problems in Africa, perhaps more so than on other continents. It is a truism, apparently accepted by most governments, that capital is scarce, and that the rate of development and employment creation are constrained by the relative scarcity of capital equipment and the slow rate of capital formation. And yet these two observations, challengeable but generally accepted as commonplace and obvious truths, co-exist in much of Africa with a paradoxical third statement: that much of the urban capital stock, particularly in the modern-service sectors – government, education, large-scale commerce, finance, etcetera – is utilised at a very low rate, typically of the order of 25–30 per cent of the potential maximum. This brief note speculates on the reasons for this state of affairs, and explores the consequences of adopting a possible policy designed to produce a significant change.
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    The @journal of modern African studies 19 (1981), S. 513-515 
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    The @journal of modern African studies 19 (1981), S. 221-256 
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    Notes: Virtually all analyses of Lesotho's political framework have agreed that strong elements of national identity have neither forestalled domestic conflict nor served to promote a unified assault on awesome economic problems. Hence many writers imply that a major asset, rarely found in independent Africa, has been wasted.1 Roger Leys has perceptively applied dependency theories of a ‘labour reserve’ economy to Lesotho,2 and spends considerable effort on historical analysis aimed at demonstrating the duration and pervasiveness of this process of systematic underdevelopment. In his conclusion he suggests that ‘the long and courageous battle of the Basotho to assert their dignity and worth is in fact a resource and political weapon of incomparable significance in the long-term battle for the liberation of southern Africa.’ Leys infers that national and class identities are interrelated, and possibly reinforcing, when he says that ‘the history of the struggle of the Basotho people and the very degree of their integration into the black working class of South Africa is a formidable weapon.’3
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    The @journal of modern African studies 19 (1981), S. 307-335 
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    Notes: Ethiopia has long been regarded as the only African state, along with Liberia, to have escaped the ravages of European colonialism, the epitome of African independence and self-determination.1 It was also considered a stable, relatively integrated, and viable political community amidst a continent of new states characterised by chronic instability.2 But by 1974, most if not all of these myths were in the process of being broken, as Ethiopia struggled for its very existence against pressures from within and without that threatened to dismember the Empire.
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    The @journal of modern African studies 19 (1981), S. 337-339 
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    The @journal of modern African studies 19 (1981), S. 345-347 
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    The @journal of modern African studies 19 (1981), S. 348-350 
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    The @journal of modern African studies 19 (1981), S. 347-348 
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    The @journal of modern African studies 19 (1981), S. 350-351 
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    The @journal of modern African studies 19 (1981), S. 356-357 
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    The @journal of modern African studies 19 (1981), S. 75-105 
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    Notes: Mauritius became independent on 12 March 1968, and was then said to be the paradigm of the small isolated, poor, dependent country, only emerging from the colonial era to fall immediately into neocolonialism – the Third World's Third World.
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    The @journal of modern African studies 19 (1981), S. 107-132 
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    Notes: In 1955 the South African Government began to demolish a black freehold suburb in Johannesburg, and to relocate its inhabitants in a state-controlled township. Resistance to these moves by the leading black political organisation of the time, the African National Congress (A.N.C.), was short-lived and unsuccessful. Despite its abortive nature, the attempt to oppose the destruction of Sophiatown was historically significant for several reasons.
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    The @journal of modern African studies 19 (1981), S. 57-73 
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    Notes: In the course of several field studies carried out during 1978–9 on behalf of the Working Group on Recurrent Costs established by the Comité Inter-états de Lutte contre la Sécheresse dans le Sahel and the Club du Sahel, it became clear that imperfect functioning of domestic capital markets hampers the efforts of Sahelian governments to raise domestic non-tax resources for budget finance. Inasmuch as the operation and maintenance of development projects compete for a severely limited pool of uncommitted government revenues – that is, revenues not committed to debt service, meeting the civil service payroll, and other inflexible obligations – reforms that augment this pool are of particular interest from the viewpoint of ensuring that these projects function properly once established.
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    The @journal of modern African studies 19 (1981), S. 133-161 
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    Notes: Legislation in the former British colonial territories exhibited a pair of paradoxes. First, it spoke in legalese, a patois that only judges and lawyers can read easily. Many laws concerning development, however, addressed ordinary citizens. Second, drafters invented and used a specialised style to reduce official and judicial discretion by making legislation more precise, but this frequently endowed officials with discretion as broad as the unbroken sky. In Africa, the uses of legalese seemed to war with the purposes for which it was developed.
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    The @journal of modern African studies 18 (1980), S. 1-4 
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    The @journal of modern African studies 18 (1980), S. 711-712 
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    The @journal of modern African studies 18 (1980), S. 411-425 
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    Notes: Late in 1979 the Zambian Government unveiled its Third National Development Plan which will guide policies until the year 1984, and this implies that problems of unemployment, particularly in urban areas, will be partly overcome by an expansion of self-employment possibilities.Such was the enthusiasm for the new initiative that the absence of reliable information surrounding it was largely ignored. This article attempts to provide relevant data concerning a number of issues which will be vital in implementing any measures to encourage self-employment in the so-called ‘informal sector’ of the Zambian economy. In particular we shall endeavour to quantify the likely flows into the labour force, particularly from the educational system, the possible growth of formal wage employment in urban areas, and the current size and composition of the informal sector. Finally, conclusions are drawn concerning the possible rôle of this sector in absorbing the unemployed in the plan period.
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    The @journal of modern African studies 18 (1980), S. 427-441 
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    Notes: Discussion of industrial activity in capitalist Third-World countries has usually centred on a series of dualistic frameworks, most recently the opposition between the so-called ‘formal’ and ‘informal’ sectors of an economy. Such dichotomies attempt to divide the activities of labour as cleanly as possible into two groups sharing common characteristics. The categories that emerge – modern/traditional, large/small-scale, formal/informal – overlap to a considerable degree because, in effect, they all attempt, with varying crudity, to compare the socio-economic characteristics of those dominant capitalist enterprises which are based on intensive capital, high-level technology, and a large scale of production, with those activities in the economy which are not based on such features. As such, the second category tends to have both negative and residual components.
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    The @journal of modern African studies 18 (1980), S. 443-468 
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    Notes: The constitutional development of Nigeria which started under the British occupation has been marked by two fundamental principles: the decision to set the political evolution of the country on a federal basis, and the effort, far less successful, to integrate the traditional institutions into a modern political system. This second principle will be the subject of this article, which I hope will also shed some light on the complex relationships between tradition and modernity, and thus show the importance of ‘primordial loyalties’ in political life.
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    The @journal of modern African studies 18 (1980), S. 493-508 
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    Notes: The potential for superpower confrontation on the Horn of Africa in 1977 and 1978 focused world attention on Somalia. For a few brief months, the popular press published regular accounts of President Siad Barre's military campaign in the Ogaden desert against neighbouring Ethiopia. The U.S. Department of State heralded the rôle of Soviet and Cuban advisers in the conflict. When Somalia ousted the Russian forces and abrogated the Treaty of Friendship and Co-operation with the U.S.S.R., the move was interpreted as a major diplomatic setback for Moscow. Now, as quickly as it erupted, the news flow about the Horn has halted.
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    The @journal of modern African studies 18 (1980), S. 509-524 
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    Notes: When Henry Kissinger became Secretary of State in September 1973 he instructed all American embassy personnel to monitor human rights in the countries in which they were serving. President Jimmy Carter was not responsible for America's interest in human rights, only for the policy of affirmative action. When his Assistant Secretary for Human Rights commenced work she found only two members of the State Department permanently assigned to the task, and her sole guideline was the manual for setting up her office.
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    The @journal of modern African studies 18 (1980), S. 525-531 
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    Notes: Throughout Ghana many commercial passenger vehicles bear mottos and names, boldly written on their bodies, usually at the front. The widespread nature of these inscriptions would seem to suggest that they are a part of the occupational sub-culture, namely the distinctive pattern of behaviour, norms, and customs which serves to identify commercial transportation. A general theme running throughout the present study is that this sub-culture reflects not only the unique needs of the drivers, but also the socio-economic and cultural environment within which they operate.
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    The @journal of modern African studies 18 (1980), S. 533-540 
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    Notes: The Lesotho Minister for Agriculture, Co-operatives, and Marketing was reported recently to have shaken the delegates at the World Conference on Agrarian Reform and Development in Rome by his observation on the value of such intergovernmental gatherings on the subject of development:
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    The @journal of modern African studies 18 (1980), S. 541-549 
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    Notes: On 22 October 1966, 393 students, all but 70 of them from the University College, demonstrated in Dar es Salaam against the Tanzania Government's proposals for National Service to be compulsory for students completing their education at Form VI level and above.1 Marching through the streets of the capital to show their disapproval, and carrying banners some of which read ‘Colonialism was Better’2 they were diverted to State House, where they had to deliver their ultimatum to the President, Mwalimu Julius K. Nyerere, in person. Flanked by his Ministers, he listened to their demand that unless the terms of the National Service were changed they would not accept the scheme in spirit: ‘Let our bodies go, but our souls will remain outside the scheme’. In his reply, the President made it clear that he had no intention of forcing anyone into National Service against his will. But since these students were unwilling to serve the nation, they should be returned immediately to their parental homes. Whereupon the demonstrators were rounded up by waiting (and obviously prepared) police, finger-printed, and despatched under armed guards to their homes throughout the country.
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    The @journal of modern African studies 18 (1980), S. 237-256 
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    Notes: There is general agreement that sports are used for political purposes. The controversy over whether this should or should not be the case is really a struggle about how they should be used. Those who argue for the separation of sports and politics tend to be satisfied with the existing use, while those against the separation tend to be dissatisfied with the present situation. The positions are rational: each group seeks to use this arena to achieve its own political objectives. Although some involvement of politics in sports appears universal, the degree varies considerably from country to country.
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    The @journal of modern African studies 18 (1980), S. 181-200 
    ISSN: 0022-278X
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    Topics: Ethnic Sciences , History , Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Only a few social scientists outside the field of Middle East studies are aware that in the sovereign state of Libya today there is no government. Indeed, it is not likely to have one so long as the country's strongman, Colonel Mu'ammar al-Qadhafi,1 continues to be the leader of the Libyan revolution. This has been the case ever since 2 March 1977, when the institution of government in its traditional legal-bureaucratic sense was dismantled, and the people's authority, exercised through people's congresses and committees, was proclaimed. By this action, Libya initiated in practice the so-called era of jamahiriya—the era of the masses and the practice of direct democracy – and has taken a number of steps in that direction. A recent example was the renaming of some of its embassies overseas as ‘people's bureaux’, with Libyan students and citizens taking charge of their functions and management.2 This action, instigated personally by Qadhafi, was intended to illustrate to the world that since Libya has no government, ordinary Libyan citizens overseas represent themselves directly to foreign peoples.
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    The @journal of modern African studies 18 (1980), S. 281-295 
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    Topics: Ethnic Sciences , History , Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Although the analysis which follows centres upon the West African state of Mali, much of what is said applies in varying measure to other examples of military state capitalism in Africa and elsewhere. Its importance is underscored by the fact that this is an increasingly common régime variant in the Third World. Similarly, domestic militarism has been transformed from an unusual occurrence to a phenomenon which evokes little more than a déjà vu response. Today nearly half of the governments of the ‘South’ are directly or indirectly dominated by the military, whereas three decades ago little more than 15 per cent could be so classified.
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    The @journal of modern African studies 18 (1980), S. 330-332 
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    The @journal of modern African studies 18 (1980), S. 332-334 
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    The @journal of modern African studies 18 (1980), S. 334-337 
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    The @journal of modern African studies 18 (1980), S. 1-4 
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    The @journal of modern African studies 18 (1980), S. 1-22 
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    Topics: Ethnic Sciences , History , Political Science , Economics
    Notes: In October 1970, after the civil war had ended, General Yakubu Gowon reiterated his earlier pledge that military rule would be terminated on 1 October 1976, but two years before that date he postponed the return to civilian rule indefinitely on the grounds that Nigerians had not yet demonstrated ‘moderation and self-control in pursuing sectional ends’.1 In July 1975, nine years after his own elevation to Head of the Federal Military Government (F.M.G.), Gowon was removed by a coup d'état led by Brigadier Murtala Mohammed, who cited mismanagement as the immediate reason. However, after the coup, ‘well-placed spokesmen for the new administration...reaffirmed that the goals of the coup were to restore the good image of the military and to create conditions which will make reactive military intervention unnecessary in the future’.2
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    The @journal of modern African studies 18 (1980), S. 143-150 
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    Topics: Ethnic Sciences , History , Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Disappointed with the development performance of most Third-World countries during the past two decades, many scholars and public officials have looked for a more effective strategy. They are concerned not merely with the extent of growth, but where it has occurred, with evidence that relatively little of the benefits of increased productivity has ‘trickled down’ to the poorer half of the populations of these lands. Capital-intensive methods have raised expectations in both the urban and the rural areas without generating adequate employment opportunities or distributing the benefits of growth equitably. As a consequence, the many poor remain as desperately disadvantaged as they ever were, making a re-evaluation of development priorities, within as well as outside of Africa, of the utmost importance at this juncture.
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    Modern Asian studies 3 (1969), S. 86-86 
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    Modern Asian studies 3 (1969), S. 89-90 
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    Modern Asian studies 3 (1969), S. 183-186 
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    Modern Asian studies 3 (1969), S. 191-192 
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    Modern Asian studies 3 (1969), S. 75-78 
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    Modern Asian studies 3 (1969), S. 79-82 
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    Modern Asian studies 3 (1969), S. 84-86 
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    Modern Asian studies 3 (1969), S. 88-89 
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    Modern Asian studies 3 (1969), S. 91-92 
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    Modern Asian studies 3 (1969), S. 95-96 
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