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  • Blackwell Publishing Ltd  (37,546)
  • Nature Publishing Group  (31,526)
  • 2020-2024  (13)
  • 1995-1999  (37,664)
  • 1970-1974  (31,395)
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  • 1
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    Optimised use of data fusion and memory‐based learning with an Austrian soil library for predictions with infrared data (2023)
    Blackwell Publishing Ltd | Oxford, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-12-12
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Infrared spectroscopy in the visible to near‐infrared (vis–NIR) and mid‐infrared (MIR) regions is a well‐established approach for the prediction of soil properties. Different data fusion and training approaches exist, and the optimal procedures are yet undefined and may depend on the heterogeneity present in the set and on the considered scale. The objectives were to test the usefulness of partial least squares regressions (PLSRs) for soil organic carbon (SOC), total carbon (C〈sub〉t〈/sub〉), total nitrogen (N〈sub〉t〈/sub〉) and pH using vis–NIR and MIR spectroscopy for an independent validation after standard calibration (use of a general PLSR model) or using memory‐based learning (MBL) with and without spiking for a national spectral database. Data fusion approaches were simple concatenation of spectra, outer product analysis (OPA) and model averaging. In total, 481 soils from an Austrian forest soil archive were measured in the vis–NIR and MIR regions, and regressions were calculated. Fivefold calibration‐validation approaches were carried out with a region‐related split of spectra to implement independent validations with n ranging from 47 to 99 soils in different folds. MIR predictions were generally superior over vis–NIR predictions. For all properties, optimal predictions were obtained with data fusion, with OPA and spectra concatenation outperforming model averaging. The greatest robustness of performance was found for OPA and MBL with spiking with 〈italic toggle="no"〉R〈/italic〉〈sup〉2〈/sup〉 ≥ 0.77 (N), 0.85 (SOC), 0.86 (pH) and 0.88 (C〈sub〉t〈/sub〉) in the validations of all folds. Overall, the results indicate that the combination of OPA for vis–NIR and MIR spectra with MBL and spiking has a high potential to accurately estimate properties when using large‐scale soil spectral libraries as reference data. However, the reduction of cost‐effectiveness using two spectrometers needs to be weighed against the potential increase in accuracy compared to a single MIR spectroscopy approach.〈/p〉
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Keywords: ddc:631.4 ; data fusion ; independent validation ; infrared spectroscopy ; MBL ; nitrogen ; outer product analysis ; pH ; soil organic carbon ; spiking ; total carbon
    Language: English
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  • 2
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    Importance of catchment hydrological processes and calibration of hydrological‐hydrodynamic rainfall‐runoff models in small rural catchments (2023)
    Blackwell Publishing Ltd | Oxford, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-01-19
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉In recent years, many two‐dimensional (2D) hydrodynamic models have been extended to include the direct rainfall method (DRM). This allows their application as a hydrological‐hydrodynamic model for the determination of floodplains in one model system. In previous studies on DRM, the role of catchment hydrological processes (CaHyPro) and its interaction with the calibration process was not investigated in detail. In the present, case‐oriented study, the influence of the spatiotemporal distribution of the processes precipitation and runoff formation in combination with the 2D model HEC‐RAS is investigated. In a further step, a conceptual approach for event‐based interflow is integrated. The study is performed on the basis of a single storm event in a small rural catchment (low mountain range, 38 km〈sup〉2〈/sup〉) in Hesse (Germany). The model results are evaluated against six quality criteria and compared to a simplified baseline model. Finally, the calibrated improved model is contrasted with a calibrated baseline model. The results show the enhancement of the model results due to the integration of the CaHyPro and highlight its interplay with the calibrated model parameters.〈/p〉
    Keywords: ddc:551.48 ; 2D hydrodynamic modeling ; calibration ; direct rainfall modeling ; hydrological processes ; radar data ; runoff formation
    Language: English
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  • 3
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    Redoxtrons – An experimental system to study redox processes within the capillary fringe (2023)
    Blackwell Publishing Ltd | Oxford, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-11-18
    Description: Spatiotemporal characterisation of the soil redox status within the capillary fringe (CF) is a challenging task. Air‐filled porosities (ε), oxygen concentration (O〈sub〉2〈/sub〉) and soil redox potential (EH) are interrelated soil variables within active biogeochemical domains such as the CF. We investigated the impact of water table (WT) rise and drainage in an undisturbed topsoil and subsoil sample taken from a Calcaric Gleysol for a period of 46 days. We merged 1D (EH and matric potential) and 2D (O〈sub〉2〈/sub〉) systems to monitor at high spatiotemporal resolution redox dynamics within self‐constructed redoxtron housings and complemented the data set by a 3D pore network characterization using X‐ray microtomography (X‐ray μCT). Depletion of O〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 was faster in the organic matter‐ and clay‐rich aggregated topsoil and the CF extended 〉10 cm above the artificial WT. The homogeneous and less‐aggregated subsoil extended only 4 cm above the WT as indicated by ε–O〈sub〉2〈/sub〉–EH data during saturation. After drainage, 2D O〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 imaging revealed a fast aeration towards the lower depths of the topsoil, which agrees with the connected ε derived by X‐ray μCT (ε〈sub〉CT_conn〈/sub〉) of 14.9% of the total porosity. However, small‐scaled anoxic domains with O〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 saturation 〈5% were apparent even after lowering the WT (down to 0.25 cm〈sup〉2〈/sup〉 in size) for 23 days. These domains remained a nucleus for reducing soil conditions (E〈sub〉H〈/sub〉 〈 −100 mV), which made it challenging to characterise the soil redox status in the CF. In contrast, the subsoil aeration reached O〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 saturation after 8 days for the complete soil volume. Values of ε〈sub〉CT_conn〈/sub〉 around zero in the subsoil highlighted that soil aeration was independent of this parameter suggesting that other variables such as microbial activity must be considered when predicting the soil redox status from ε alone. The use of redoxtrons in combination with localised redox‐measurements and image based pore space analysis resulted in a better 2D/3D characterisation of the pore system and related O〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 transport properties. This allowed us to analyse the distribution and activity of microbiological niches highly associated with the spatiotemporal variable redox dynamics in soil environments. Highlights: The time needed to turn from reducing to oxidising (period where all platinum electrodes feature E〈sub〉H〈/sub〉 〉 300 mV) condition differ for two samples with contrasting soil structure. The subsoil with presumably low O〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 consumption rates aerated considerably faster than the topsoil and exclusively by O〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 diffusion through medium‐ and fine‐sized pores. To derive the soil redox status based upon the triplet ε–O〈sub〉2〈/sub〉–E〈sub〉H〈/sub〉 is challenging at present in heterogeneous soil domains and larger soil volumes than 250 cm〈sup〉3〈/sup〉. Undisturbed soil sampling along with 2D/3D redox measurement systems (e.g., redoxtrons) improve our understanding of redox dynamics within the capillary fringe.
    Keywords: ddc:631.4 ; environmental monitoring ; incubation experiments ; redox processes ; soil reducing conditions ; undisturbed soil ; X‐ray microtomography
    Language: English
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  • 4
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    The dilemma of analytical method changes for soil organic carbon in long‐term experiments (2023)
    Blackwell Publishing Ltd | Oxford, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-11-17
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈sec xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="ejss13362-sec-1003" xml:lang="en"〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Long‐term experiments (LTEs) have provided data to modellers and agronomists to investigate changes and dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) under different cropping systems. As treatment changes have occurred due to agricultural advancements, so too have analytical soil methods. This may lead to method bias over time, which could affect the robust interpretation of data and conclusions drawn. This study aims to quantify differences in SOC due to changes in dry combustion methods over time, using soil samples of a LTE established in 1963 that focuses on mineral and organic fertilizer management in the temperate zone of Northeast Germany. For this purpose, 1059 soil samples, collected between 1976 and 2008, have been analysed twice, once with their historical laboratory method right after sampling, and a second time in 2016 when all samples were analysed using the same elementary analyser. In 9 of 11 soil sampling campaigns, a paired 〈italic toggle="no"〉t〈/italic〉‐test provided evidence for significant differences in the historical SOC values when compared with the re‐analysed concentrations of the same LTE sample. In the sampling years 1988 and 2004, the historical analysis obtained about 0.9 g kg〈sup〉−1〈/sup〉 lower SOC compared with the re‐analysed one. For 1990 and 1998, this difference was about 0.4 g kg〈sup〉−1〈/sup〉. Correction factors, an approach often used to correct for different analytical techniques, could only be applied for 5 of 11 sampling campaigns to account for constant and proportional systematic method error. For this particular LTE, the interpretation of SOC changes due to agronomic management (here fertilization) deviates depending on the analytical method used, which may weaken the explanatory power of the historical data. We demonstrate that analytical method changes over time present one of many challenges in the interpretation of time series data of SOC dynamics. Therefore, LTE site managers need to ensure providing all necessary protocols and data in order to retrace method changes and if necessary recalculate SOC.〈/p〉 〈/sec〉〈sec xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="ejss13362-sec-0003" xml:lang="en"〉 〈title〉Highlights〈/title〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉〈list list-type="bullet" id="ejss13362-list-0001"〉 〈list-item id="ejss13362-li-0001"〉〈p〉A total of 1059 LTE soil samples taken between 1976 and 2008 were re‐analysed for SOC in 2016〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item id="ejss13362-li-0002"〉〈p〉Several methodological changes for SOC determination led to significant different SOC concentration in the same sample〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item id="ejss13362-li-0003"〉〈p〉Interpretation and time series of LTE soil data suffer from consideration of analytical method changes and poor documentation of the same〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item id="ejss13362-li-0004"〉〈p〉Soil archive establishment, thorough method protocols and diligent proficiency testing after soil method changes ameliorate the dilemma〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈/list〉〈/p〉 〈/sec〉
    Description: Brandenburger Staatsministerium für Wissenschaft, Forschung und Kultur http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004581
    Description: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004937
    Description: https://doi.org/10.4228/zalf-acge-b683
    Keywords: ddc:631.4 ; Bland–Altman ; carbon stocks ; data trueness ; Deming regression ; method bias ; soil archive ; soil survey
    Language: English
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  • 5
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    Toward an adequate level of detail in flood risk assessments (2023)
    Blackwell Publishing Ltd | Oxford, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-01-24
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Flood risk assessments require different disciplines to understand and model the underlying components hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Many methods and data sets have been refined considerably to cover more details of spatial, temporal, or process information. We compile case studies indicating that refined methods and data have a considerable effect on the overall assessment of flood risk. But are these improvements worth the effort? The adequate level of detail is typically unknown and prioritization of improvements in a specific component is hampered by the lack of an overarching view on flood risk. Consequently, creating the dilemma of potentially being too greedy or too wasteful with the resources available for a risk assessment. A “sweet spot” between those two would use methods and data sets that cover all relevant known processes without using resources inefficiently. We provide three key questions as a qualitative guidance toward this “sweet spot.” For quantitative decision support, more overarching case studies in various contexts are needed to reveal the sensitivity of the overall flood risk to individual components. This could also support the anticipation of unforeseen events like the flood event in Germany and Belgium in 2021 and increase the reliability of flood risk assessments.〈/p〉
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: BMBF http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Description: Federal Environment Agency http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100010809
    Description: http://howas21.gfz-potsdam.de/howas21/
    Description: https://www.umwelt.niedersachsen.de/startseite/themen/wasser/hochwasser_amp_kustenschutz/hochwasserrisikomanagement_richtlinie/hochwassergefahren_und_hochwasserrisikokarten/hochwasserkarten-121920.html
    Description: https://download.geofabrik.de/europe/germany.html
    Description: https://emergency.copernicus.eu/mapping/list-of-components/EMSN024
    Description: https://data.jrc.ec.europa.eu/collection/id-0054
    Description: https://oasishub.co/dataset/surface-water-flooding-footprinthurricane-harvey-august-2017-jba
    Description: https://www.wasser.sachsen.de/hochwassergefahrenkarte-11915.html
    Keywords: ddc:551.48 ; decision support ; extreme events ; integrated flood risk management ; risk assessment
    Language: English
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  • 6
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    BODIUM—A systemic approach to model the dynamics of soil functions (2023)
    Blackwell Publishing Ltd | Oxford, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-01-26
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉The increasing demand for biomass for food, animal feed, fibre and bioenergy requires optimization of soil productivity, while at the same time, protecting other soil functions such as nutrient cycling and buffering, carbon storage, habitat for biological activity and water filter and storage. Therefore, one of the main challenges for sustainable agriculture is to produce high yields while maintaining all the other soil functions. Mechanistic simulation models are an essential tool to fully understand and predict the complex interactions between physical, biological and chemical processes of soils that generate those functions. We developed a soil model to simulate the impact of various agricultural management options and climate change on soil functions by integrating the relevant processes mechanistically and in a systemic way. As a special feature, we include the dynamics of soil structure induced by tillage and biological activity, which is especially relevant in arable soils. The model operates on a 1D soil profile consisting of a number of discrete layers with dynamic thickness. We demonstrate the model performance by simulating crop growth, root growth, nutrient and water uptake, nitrogen cycling, soil organic matter turnover, microbial activity, water distribution and soil structure dynamics in a long‐term field experiment including different crops and different types and levels of fertilization. The model is able to capture essential features that are measured regularly including crop yield, soil organic carbon, and soil nitrogen. In this way, the plausibility of the implemented processes and their interactions is confirmed. Furthermore, we present the results of explorative simulations comparing scenarios with and without tillage events to analyse the effect of soil structure on soil functions. Since the model is process‐based, we are confident that the model can also be used to predict quantities that have not been measured or to estimate the effect of management measures and climate states not yet been observed. The model thus has the potential to predict the site‐specific impact of management decisions on soil functions, which is of great importance for the development of a sustainable agriculture that is currently also on the agenda of the ‘Green Deal’ at the European level.〈/p〉
    Description: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Description: https://git.ufz.de/bodium/bodium_v1.0
    Keywords: ddc:631.4 ; agriculture ; computational model ; simulation ; soil microbiology ; soil structure ; sustainable soil
    Language: English
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  • 7
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    Temperature and soil moisture change microbial allocation of pesticide‐derived carbon (2023)
    Blackwell Publishing Ltd | Oxford, UK
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    Publication Date: 2024-03-18
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Temperature and soil moisture are known to control pesticide mineralization. Half‐life times (DT〈sub〉50〈/sub〉) derived from pesticide mineralization curves generally indicate longer residence times at low soil temperature and moisture but do not consider potential changes in the microbial allocation of pesticide‐derived carbon (C). We aimed to determine carbon use efficiency (CUE, formation of new biomass relative to total C uptake) to better understand microbial utilization of pesticide‐derived C under different environmental conditions and to support the conventional description of degradation dynamics based on mineralization. We performed a microcosm experiment at two MCPA (2‐methyl‐4‐chlorophenoxyacetic acid) concentrations (1 and 20 mg kg〈sup〉−1〈/sup〉) and defined 20°C/pF 1.8 as optimal and 10°C/pF 3.5 as limiting environmental conditions. After 4 weeks, 70% of the initially applied MCPA was mineralized under optimal conditions but MCPA mineralization reached less than 25% under limiting conditions. However, under limiting conditions, an increase in CUE was observed, indicating a shift towards anabolic utilization of MCPA‐derived C. In this case, increased C assimilation implied C storage or the formation of precursor compounds to support resistance mechanisms, rather than actual growth since we did not find an increase in the 〈italic toggle="no"〉tfdA〈/italic〉 gene relevant to MCPA degradation. We were able to confirm the assumption that under limiting conditions, C assimilation increases relative to mineralization and that C redistribution, may serve as an explanation for the difference between mineralization and MCPA dissipation‐derived degradation dynamics. In addition, by introducing CUE to the temperature‐ and moisture‐dependent degradation of pesticides, we can capture the underlying microbial constraints and adaptive mechanisms to changing environmental conditions.〈/p〉
    Description: 〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Changing environmental conditions alter the MCPA degradation dynamics and the allocation of pesticide‐derived carbon to anabolic or catabolic metabolism.〈boxed-text position="anchor" content-type="graphic" id="ejss13417-blkfxd-0001" xml:lang="en"〉 〈graphic position="anchor" id="jats-graphic-1" xlink:href="urn:x-wiley:13510754:media:ejss13417:ejss13417-toc-0001"〉 〈/graphic〉 〈/boxed-text〉〈/p〉
    Description: Collaborative Research Center 1253 CAMPOS (DFG)
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: DFG Priority Program 2322 “Soil System”
    Description: Ellrichshausen Foundation
    Description: Research Training Group “Integrated Hydrosystem modeling”
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5081655
    Keywords: ddc:631.4 ; anabolism ; carbon use efficiency ; catabolism ; effect of soil moisture and temperature ; gene‐centric process model ; MCPA biodegradation
    Language: English
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  • 8
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    Small lateral air pressure gradients generated by a large chamber system have a strong effect on CO2 transport in soil (2023)
    Blackwell Publishing Ltd | Oxford, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-09
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Gas transport in soils is usually assumed to be purely diffusive, although several studies have shown that non‐diffusive processes can significantly enhance soil gas transport. These processes include barometric air pressure changes, wind‐induced pressure pumping and static air pressure fields generated by wind interacting with obstacles. The associated pressure gradients in the soil can cause advective gas fluxes that are much larger than diffusive fluxes. However, the contributions of the respective transport processes are difficult to separate. We developed a large chamber system to simulate pressure fields and investigate their influence on soil gas transport. The chamber consists of four subspaces in which pressure is regulated by fans that blow air in or out of the chamber. With this setup, we conducted experiments with oscillating and static pressure fields. CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 concentrations were measured along two soil profiles beneath the chamber. We found a significant relationship between static lateral pressure gradients and the change in the CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 profiles (R〈sup〉2〈/sup〉 = 0.53; 〈italic toggle="no"〉p〈/italic〉‐value 〈2e‐16). Even small pressure gradients between −1 and 1 Pa relative to ambient pressure resulted in an increase or decrease in CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 concentrations of 8% on average in the upper soil, indicating advective flow of air in the pore space. Positive pressure gradients resulted in decreasing, negative pressure gradients in increasing CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 concentrations. The concentration changes were probably caused by an advective flow field in the soil beneath the chamber generated by the pressure gradients. No effect of oscillating pressure fields was observed in this study. The results indicate that static lateral pressure gradients have a substantial impact on soil gas transport and therefore are an important driver of gas exchange between soil and atmosphere. Lateral pressure gradients in a comparable range can be induced under windy conditions when wind interacts with terrain features. They can also be caused by chambers used for flux measurements at high wind speed or by fans used for head‐space mixing within the chambers, which yields biased flux estimates.〈/p〉
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Keywords: ddc:631.4 ; advective flux ; chamber flux measurements ; static air pressure fields ; wind‐induced pressure pumping
    Language: English
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  • 9
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    Vertical SOC distribution and aromatic carbon in centuries old charcoal‐rich Technosols (2022)
    Bonhage, Alexander ; Raab, Thomas ; Schneider, Anna ; [et al.]
    Blackwell Publishing Ltd | Oxford, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-01-21
    Description: Charcoal‐rich Technosols on century‐old relict charcoal hearths (RCHs) are the subject of ongoing research regarding potential legacy effects that result from historic charcoal production and subsequent charcoal amendments on forest soil properties and forest ecosystems today. RCHs consist mostly of Auh horizons that are substantially enriched in soil organic carbon (SOC), of which the largest part seems to be of pyrogenic origin (PyC). However, the reported range of SOC and PyC contents in RCH soil also suggests that they are enriched in nonpyrogenic SOC. RCH soils are discussed as potential benchmarks for the long‐term influence of biochar amendment and the post‐wildfire influences on soil properties. In this study, we utilised a large soil sample dataset (n = 1245) from 52 RCH sites in north‐western Connecticut, USA, to quantify SOC contents by total element analysis. The contents of condensed highly aromatic carbon as a proxy for black carbon (BC) were predicted by using a modified benzene polycarboxylated acid (BPCA) marker method in combination with diffuse reflectance infrared Fourier transform (DRIFT) spectroscopy‐based partial least square regression (r2 = 0.89). A high vertical spatial sampling resolution allowed the identification of soil organic matter (SOM) enrichment and translocation processes. The results show an average 75% and 1862% increase in TOC and BPCA‐derived carbon, respectively, for technogenic Auh horizons compared to reference soils. In addition to an increase in aromatic properties, increased carboxylic properties of the RCH SOC suggest self‐humification effects of degrading charcoal and thereby the continuing formation of leachable aromatic carbon compounds, which could have effects on pedogenic processes in buried soils. Indeed, we show BPCA‐derived carbon concentrations in intermediate technogenic Cu horizons and buried top/subsoils that suggest vertical translocation of highly aromatic carbon originating in RCH Auh horizons. Topmost Auh horizons showed a gradual decrease in total organic carbon (TOC) contents with increasing depth, suggesting accumulation of recent, non‐pyrogenic SOM. Lower aliphatic absorptions in RCH soil spectra suggest different SOM turnover dynamics compared to reference soils. Furthermore, studied RCH soils featured additional TOC enrichment, which cannot be fully explained now. Highlights BC to TOC ratio and high resolution vertical SOC distribution in 52 RCH sites were studied. RCH soils non‐BC pool was potentially different to reference soils. RCH soils feature TOC accumulation in the topmost horizon. There is BC translocation into buried soils on RCH sites.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Keywords: ddc:631.4 ; benzene polycarboxylated acid marker (BPCA) ; black carbon ; charcoal degradation ; charcoal kiln ; pyrogenic carbon ; relict charcoal hearth ; biochar
    Language: English
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  • 10
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    Potential erodibility of semi‐arid steppe soils derived from aggregate stability tests (2022)
    Koza, Moritz ; Pöhlitz, Julia ; Prays, Aleksey ; [et al.]
    Blackwell Publishing Ltd | Oxford, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-01-26
    Description: Erosion is a severe threat to the sustainable use of agricultural soils. However, the structural resistance of soil against the disruptive forces steppe soils experience under field conditions has not been investigated. Therefore, 132 topsoils under grass‐ and cropland covering a large range of physico‐chemical soil properties (sand: 2–76%, silt: 18–80%, clay: 6–30%, organic carbon: 7.3–64.2 g kg−1, inorganic carbon: 0.0–8.5 g kg−1, pH: 4.8–9.5, electrical conductivity: 32–946 μS cm−1) from northern Kazakhstan were assessed for their potential erodibility using several tests. An adjusted drop‐shatter method (low energy input of 60 Joule on a 250‐cm3 soil block) was used to estimate the stability of dry soil against weak mechanical forces, such as saltating particles striking the surface causing wind erosion. Three wetting treatments with various conditions and energies (fast wetting, slow wetting, and wet shaking) were applied to simulate different disruptive effects of water. Results indicate that aggregate stability was higher for grassland than cropland soils and declined with decreasing soil organic carbon content. The results of the drop‐shatter test suggested that 29% of the soils under cropland were at risk of wind erosion, but only 6% were at high risk (i.e. erodible fraction 〉60%). In contrast, the fast wetting treatment revealed that 54% of the samples were prone to become “very unstable” and 44% “unstable” during heavy rain or snowmelt events. Even under conditions comparable to light rain events or raindrop impact, 53–59% of the samples were “unstable.” Overall, cropland soils under semi‐arid conditions seem much more susceptible to water than wind erosion. Considering future projections of increasing precipitation in Kazakhstan, we conclude that the risk of water erosion is potentially underestimated and needs to be taken into account when developing sustainable land use strategies. Highlights Organic matter is the important binding agent enhancing aggregation in steppe topsoils. Tillage always declines aggregate stability even without soil organic carbon changes. All croplands soil are prone to wind or water erosion independent of their soil properties. Despite the semi‐arid conditions, erosion risk by water seems higher than by wind.
    Description: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Keywords: ddc:631.4 ; climate change ; land use ; soil organic carbon ; soil texture ; water erosion ; wind erosion
    Language: English
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  • 11
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    Non‐exchangeable stable hydrogen isotope ratios in clay minerals and soil clay fractions: A method test (2022)
    Blackwell Publishing Ltd | Oxford, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-01-20
    Description: Stable hydrogen isotope ratios (δ2H values) in structural hydroxyl groups of pedogenic clay minerals are inherited from the surrounding water at the time of their formation. Only non‐exchangeable H preserves the environmental forensic and paleoclimate information (δ2Hn value). To measure δ2Hn values in structural H of clay minerals and soil clay fractions, we adapted a steam equilibration method by accounting for high hygroscopicity. Our δ2Hn values for USGS57 biotite (−95.3 ± SD 0.9‰) and USGS58 muscovite (30.7 ± 1.4‰) differed slightly but significantly from the reported δ2H values (−91.5 ± 2.4‰ and −28.4 ± 1.6‰), because the minerals contained 1.1%–4.4% of exchangeable H. The low SD of replicate measurements (n = 3) confirmed a high precision. The clay separation method including destruction of Fe oxides, carbonates and soil organic matter, and dispersion did not significantly change the δ2Hn values of five different clay minerals. However, we were unable to remove all organic matter from the soil clay fractions resulting in an estimated bias of 1‰ in two samples and 15‰ in the carbon‐richest sample. Our results demonstrate that δ2Hn values of structural H of clay minerals and soil clay fractions can be reliably measured without interference from atmospheric water and the method used to separate the soil clay fraction. Highlights We tested steam equilibration to determine stable isotope ratios of structural H in clay. Gas‐tight capsule sealing in Ar atmosphere was necessary to avoid remoistening. Our steam equilibration method showed a high accuracy and precision. The clay separation method did not change stable isotope ratios of structural H in clay.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Keywords: ddc:549 ; controlled isotope exchange technique ; deuterium ; montmorillonite ; soil clay separation ; soil organic matter removal ; steam equilibration ; structural H ; USGS57 biotite ; vermiculite ; δ2H
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:article
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  • 12
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    Reducing tillage intensity benefits the soil micro‐ and mesofauna in a global meta‐analysis (2022)
    Blackwell Publishing Ltd | Oxford, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-03-22
    Description: Soil fauna drives crucial processes of energy and nutrient cycling in agricultural systems, and influences the quality of crops and pest incidence. Soil tillage is the most influential agricultural manipulation of soil structure, and has a profound influence on soil biology and its provision of ecosystem services. The objective of this study was to quantify through meta‐analyses the effects of reducing tillage intensity on density and diversity of soil micro‐ and mesofaunal communities, and how these effects vary among different pedoclimatic conditions and interact with concurrent management practices. We present the results of a global meta‐analysis of available literature data on the effects of different tillage intensities on taxonomic and functional groups of soil micro‐ and mesofauna. We collected paired observations (conventional vs. reduced forms of tillage/no‐tillage) from 133 studies across 33 countries. Our results show that reduced tillage intensity or no‐tillage increases the total density of springtails (+35%), mites (+23%), and enchytraeids (+37%) compared to more intense tillage methods. The meta‐analyses for different nematode feeding groups, life‐forms of springtails, and taxonomic mite groups showed higher densities under reduced forms of tillage compared to conventional tillage on omnivorous nematodes (+53%), epedaphic (+81%) and hemiedaphic (+84%) springtails, oribatid (+43%) and mesostigmatid (+57%) mites. Furthermore, the effects of reduced forms of tillage on soil micro‐ and mesofauna varied with depth, climate and soil texture, as well as with tillage method, tillage frequency, concurrent fertilisation, and herbicide application. Our findings suggest that reducing tillage intensity can have positive effects on the density of micro‐ and mesofaunal communities in areas subjected to long‐term intensive cultivation practices. Our results will be useful to support decision making on the management of soil faunal communities and will facilitate modelling efforts of soil biology in global agroecosystems. HIGHLIGHTS Global meta‐analysis to estimate the effect of reducing tillage intensity on micro‐ and mesofauna Reduced tillage or no‐tillage has positive effects on springtail, mite and enchytraeid density Effects vary among nematode feeding groups, springtail life forms and mite suborders Effects vary with texture, climate and depth and depend on the tillage method and frequency
    Description: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Description: https://doi.org/10.20387/bonares-eh0f-hj28
    Keywords: ddc:631.4 ; agricultural land use ; conservation agriculture ; conventional agriculture ; soil biodiversity ; soil cultivation
    Language: English
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    Defining Hydrogeological Site Similarity with Hierarchical Agglomerative Clustering (2022)
    Blackwell Publishing Ltd | Malden, US
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-28
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Hydrogeological information about an aquifer is difficult and costly to obtain, yet essential for the efficient management of groundwater resources. Transferring information from sampled sites to a specific site of interest can provide information when site‐specific data is lacking. Central to this approach is the notion of site similarity, which is necessary for determining relevant sites to include in the data transfer process. In this paper, we present a data‐driven method for defining site similarity. We apply this method to selecting groups of similar sites from which to derive prior distributions for the Bayesian estimation of hydraulic conductivity measurements at sites of interest. We conclude that there is now a unique opportunity to combine hydrogeological expertise with data‐driven methods to improve the predictive ability of stochastic hydrogeological models.〈/p〉
    Description: 〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉〈italic〉Article impact statement〈/italic〉: This article introduces hierarchical clustering as a method for defining a notion of site similarity; the aim of this method is to improve the derivation of prior distributions in Bayesian methods in hydrogeology.〈/p〉
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: https://github.com/GeoStat-Bayesian/geostatDB
    Description: https://github.com/GeoStat-Bayesian/exPrior
    Description: https://github.com/GeoStat-Bayesian/siteSimilarity
    Keywords: ddc:551.49 ; hydrogeological sites ; hydrogeological modeling
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:article
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  • 14
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    Vehicle Emission Unit Risk Factors for Transportation Risk Assessments (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: When the transportation risk posed by shipments of hazardous chemical and radioactive materials is being assessed, it is necessary to evaluate therisks associated with both vehicle emissions and cargo-related risks. Diesel exhaust and fugitive dust emissions from vehicles transporting hazardous shipments lead to increased air pollution, which increases the risk of latent fatalities in the affected population along the transport route. The estimated risk from these vehicle-related sources can often be as large or larger than the estimated risk associated with the material being transported. In this paper, data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Motor Vehicle-Related Air Toxics Study are first used to develop latent cancer fatality estimates per kilometer of travel in rural and urban areas forall diesel truck classes. These unit risk factors are based on studies investigating the carcinogenic nature of diesel exhaust. With the same methodology, the current per-kilometer latent fatality risk factor used in transportation risk assessments for heavy diesel trucks in urban areas is revised and the analysis expanded to provide risk factors for rural areas and all diesel truck classes. These latter fatality estimates may include, but are not limited to, cancer fatalities and are based primarily on the most recent epidemiological data available on mortality rates associated with ambient air PM-10 concentrations.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb01135.x
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  • 15
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    Using Animated Probability Plots to Explore the Suitability of Mixture Models with Two Component Distributions (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Risk assessors often use different probability plots as a way to assessthe fit of a particular distribution or model by comparing the plotted points to a straight line and to obtain estimates of the parameters in parametric distributions or models. When empirical data do not fall in a sufficiently straight line on a probability plot, and when no other single parametricdistribution provides an acceptable (graphical) fit to the data, the risk assessor may consider a mixture model with two component distributions. Animated probability plots are a way to visualize the possible behaviors of mixture models with two component distributions. When no single parametric distribution provides an adequate fit to an empirical dataset, animated probability plots can help an analyst pick some plausible mixture models for the data based on their qualitative fit. After using animations during exploratory data analysis, the analyst must then use other statistical tools, including but not limited to: Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) to find the optimal parameters, Goodness of Fit (GoF) tests, and a variety of diagnostic plots to check the adequacy of the fit. Using a specific example with two LogNormal components, we illustrate the use of animated probability plots asa tool for exploring the suitability of a mixture model with two component distributions. Animations work well with other types of probability plots, and they may be extended to analyze mixture models with three or more component distributions.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb01137.x
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  • 16
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    A Quantitative Analysis of Factors Affecting PELs and TLVs for Carcinogens (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: For carcinogens, this paper provides a quantitative examination of the roles of potency and weight-of-evidence (WOE) in setting permissible exposure limits (PELs) at the U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) and threshold limit values (TLVs) at the private American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists (ACGIH). On normative grounds, both of these factors should influence choices about the acceptable level of exposures. Our major objective is to examine whether and in what ways these factors have been considered by these organizations. A lesser objective is to identify outliers, which might be candidates for further regulatory scrutiny. Our sample (N=48) includes chemicals for which EPA has estimated a unit risk as a measure of carcinogenic potency and for which OSHA or the ACGIH has a PEL or TLV. Different assessments of the strength of the evidence of carcinogenicity were obtained from EPA, ACGIH, and the International Agency for Research on Cancer. We found that potency alone explains 49% of the variation in PELs and 62% of the variation in TLVs. For the ACGIH, WOE plays a much smaller role than potency. TLVs set by the ACGIH since 1989 appear to be stricter than earlier TLVs. We suggest that this change represents evidence that the ACGIH had responded to criticisms leveled at it in the late 1980s for failing to adopt sufficiently protective standards. The models developed here identify 2-nitropropane, ethylene dibromide, and chromium as having OSHA PELs significantly higher than predicted on the basis of potency and WOE.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb01141.x
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  • 17
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    Performance Assessment for Radioactive Waste Disposal (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00445.x
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  • 18
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    The Role of Performance Assessment in the Regulation of Underground Disposal of Radioactive Wastes: An International Perspective (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Much has been written about the development and application of quantitative methods for estimating under uncertainty the long-term radiological performance of underground disposal of radioactive wastes. Until recently, interest has been focused almost entirely on the technical challenges regardless of the role of the organization responsible for these analyses. Now the dialogue between regulators, the repository developer or operator, and other interested parties in the decision-making process receives increasing attention, especially in view of some current difficulties in obtaining approvals to construct or operate deep facilities for intermediate or high-level wastes. Consequently, it is timely to consider the options for regulators’review and evaluation of safety submissions, at the various stages in the site selection to repository closure process, and to consider, especially, the role for performance assessment (PA) within the programs of a regulator both before and after delivery of such a submission. The origins and broad character of present regulations in the European Union (EU) and in the OECD countries are outlined and some regulatory PA reviewed. The issues raised are discussed, especially in regard to the interpretation of regulations, the dangers from the desire for simplicity in argument, the use of regulatory PA to review and challenge the PA in the safety case, and the effects of the relationship between proponent and regulator. Finally, a very limited analysis of the role of PA in public hearings is outlined and recommendations are made, together with proposals for improving the mechanisms for international collaboration on technical issues of regulatory concern.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00447.x
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  • 19
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    A Decision Theory Perspective on the Disposal of High-Level Radioactive Waste (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: In this paper the problem of high-level nuclear waste disposal is viewed as a five-stage, cascaded decision problem. The first four of these decisions having essentially been made, the work of recent years has been focused on the fifth stage, which concerns specifics of the repository design. The probabilistic performance assessment (PPA) work is viewed as the outcome prediction for this stage, and the site characterization work as the information gathering option. This brief examination of the proposed Yucca Mountain repository through a decision analysis framework resulted in three conclusions: (1) A decision theory approach to the process of selecting and characterizing Yucca Mountain would enhance public understanding of the issues and solutions to high-level waste management; (2) engineered systems are an attractive alternative to offset uncertainties in the containment capability of the natural setting and should receive greater emphasis in the design of the repository; and (3) a strategy of “waste management” should be adopted, as opposed to “waste disposal,” as it allows for incremental confirmation and confidence building of a permanent solution to the high-level waste problem.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00450.x
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  • 20
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    Comments on “Performance Assessment in Support of the 1996 Compliance Certification Application for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant” (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00454.x
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  • 21
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    Comments on the Legal Admissibility of a Performance Assessment for a Radioactive Waste Disposal Facility (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00456.x
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  • 22
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    Individual Prior Information in a Physiological Model of 2H8-Toluene Kinetics: An Empirical Bayes Estimation Strategy (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Physiologically-based toxicokinetic (PBTK) models are widely used to quantify whole-body kinetics of various substances. However, since they attempt to reproduce anatomical structures and physiological events, they have ahigh number of parameters. Their identification from kinetic data alone is often impossible, and other information about the parameters is needed to render the model identifiable. The most commonly used approach consists of independently measuring, or taking fom literature sources, some of the parameters, fixing them in the kinetic model, and then performing model identification on a reduced number of less certain parameters. This results in a substantial reduction of the degrees of freedom of the model. In this study, we show that this method results in final estimates of the free parameters whose precision is overestimated. We then compared this approach with an empirical Bayes approach, which takes into account not only the mean value, but also the error associated with the independently determined parameters. Blood and breath 2H8- toluene washout curves, obtained in17 subjects, were analyzed with a previously presented PBTK model suitable for person-specific dosimetry. Model parameters with the greatest effect onpredicted levels were alveolar ventilation rate QPC, fat tissue fraction VFC, blood air partition coefficient Kb, fraction of cardiac output to fat Qa/co and rate of extrahepatic metabolismVmax.p. Differences in the measured and Bayesian-fitted values of QPC, VFc and Kb were significant (p 〈 0.05), andthe precision of the fitted values Vmax.p and Qa/co went from 11 ± 5% to 75 ± 170% (NS) and from 8 ± 2% to 9 ± 2% (p 〈 0.05) respectively. The empirical Bayes approach did not result in less reliable parameter estimates: rather, it pointed out that the precision of parameter estimates can be overly optimistic when other parameters in the model, eitherdirectly measured or taken from literature sources, are treated as known without error. In conclusion, an empirical Bayes approach to parameter estimation resulted in a better model fit, different final parameter estimates, and more realistic parameter precisions.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb01133.x
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  • 23
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    Monte Carlo Sensitivity Analysis of Unknown Parameters in Hazardous Materials Transportation Risk Assessment (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: The US Department of Transportation was interested in the risks associated with transporting Hydrazine in tanks with and without relief devices. Hydrazine is both highly toxic and flammable, as well as corrosive. Consequently, there was a conflict as to whether a relief device should be used or not. Data were not available on the impact of relief devices on release probabilities or the impact of Hydrazine on the likelihood of fires and explosions. In this paper, a Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis of the unknown parameters was used to assess the risks associated with highway transport of Hydrazine. To help determine whether or not relief devices should be used, fault trees and event trees were used to model the sequences of events that could lead to adverse consequences during transport of Hydrazine. The event probabilities in the event trees were derived as functions of the parameters whose effects were not known. The impacts of these parameters on the riskof toxic exposures, fires, and explosions were analyzed through a Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis and analyzed statistically through an analysis of variance. The analysis allowed the determination of which of the unknown parameters had a significant impact on the risks. It also provided the necessary support to a critical transportation decision even though the values of several key parameters were not known.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb01136.x
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  • 24
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Health Risk Assessment of a Modern Municipal Waste Incinerator (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: During the modernization of the municipal waste incinerator (MWI, maximum capacity of 180,000 tons per year) of Metropolitan Grenoble (405,000 inhabitants), in France, a risk assessment was conducted, based on four tracerpollutants: two volatile organic compounds (benzene and 1,1,1 trichloroethane) and two heavy metals (nickel and cadmium, measured in particles). A Gaussian plume dispersion model, applied to maximum emissions measured at the MWI stacks, was used to estimate the distribution of these pollutants in the atmosphere throughout the metropolitan area. A random sample telephone survey (570 subjects) gathered data on time-activity patterns, according to demographic characteristics of the population. Life-long exposure was assessed as a time-weighted average of ambient air concentrations. Inhalation alone was considered because, in the Grenoble urban setting, other routes of exposure are not likely. A Monte Carlo simulation was used to describe probability distributions of exposures and risks. The median of the life-long personal exposures distribution to MWI benzene was 3.2 · 10−5μg/m3 (20th and 80th percentiles = 1.5 · 10−5 and 6.5 · 10−5μg/m3), yielding a 2.6 · 10−10 carcinogenic risk (1.2 · 10−10 - 5.4 · 10−10). For nickel, the corresponding life-time exposure and cancer risk were 1.8 ·10−4μg/m3 (0.9 ·10−4 - 3.6 ·10−4μg/m3) and 8.6 · 10−8 (4.3 · 10−8 - 17.3 ·10−8); for cadmium they were respectively 8.3 ·10−6μg/m3 (4.0 ·10−6 - 17.6 ·10−6) and 1.5 · (7.2 · 10−9 - 3.1. · 10−8). Inhalation exposure to cadmium emitted by the MWI represented less than 1% of the WHO Air Quality Guideline (5 ng/m3), while there was a margin of exposure of more than 109 between the NOAEL (150 ppm) and exposure estimates to trichloroethane. Neither dioxins nor mercury, a volatile metal, were measured. This could lessen the attributable life-long risks estimated. The minute (VOCs and cadmium) to moderate (nickel) exposure and risk estimates are in accord with other studies on modern MWIs meeting recent emission regulations, however.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb01140.x
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  • 25
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    A Comparison of Methods of Benchmark-Dose Estimation for Continuous Response Data (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Methods of quantitative risk assessment for toxic responses that are measured on a continuous scale are not well established. Although risk-assessment procedures that attempt to utilize the quantitative information in such data have been proposed, there is no general agreement that these procedures are appreciably more efficient than common quantal dose-response procedures that operate on dichotomized continuous data. This paper points out an equivalence between the dose-response models of the nonquantal approach of Kodell and West(1)) and a quantal probit procedure, and provides results from a Monte Carlo simulation study to compare coverage probabilities of statistical lower confidence limits on dose corresponding to specified additional risk based on applying the two procedures to continuous data from a dose-response experiment. The nonquantal approach is shown to be superior, in terms of both statistical validity and statistical efficiency.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00420.x
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  • 26
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    Democratizing Risk Management: Successful Public Involvement in Local Water Management Decisions (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: This paper discusses a successful public involvement effort that addressed and resolved several highly controversial water management issues involving environmental and flood risks associated with an electrical generation facility in British Columbia. It begins with a discussion of concepts for designing public involvement, summarizing research that indicates why individuals and groups may find it difficult to make complex choices. Reasons for public involvement, and the range of current practices are discussed. Next, four principles for designing group decision process are outlined, emphasizing decision-aiding concepts that include “value-focused thinking” and “adaptive management.” The next sections discuss the Alouette River Stakeholder Committee process in terms of objectives, participation, process, methods for structuring values and creating alternatives, information sources, and results. Discussion and conclusions complete the paper.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00424.x
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  • 27
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    Public Support For Earthquake Risk Mitigation In Portland, Oregon (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: During the 1980s, seismic research suggested that Oregon and the City of Portland had a higher risk of a major earthquake than had previously been assumed. In 1993, the State of Oregon adopted a new version of the Oregon Structural Specialty Code, which changed the designation of western Oregon from seismic zone 2b to seismic zone 3. The City of Portland established a program and a Task Force on Seismic Strengthening of Buildings to recommend actions that would encourage upgrading of city buildings. A survey of adult city residents was conducted in April, 1996 to determine public attitudes and opinions about earthquake risks, management and mitigation of earthquake hazards, priorities for protection by strengthening buildings, evaluations of strategies for informing the public about earthquake risks, and support for specific options the city might take to protect citizens against earthquake events. Social and demographic information on individuals and households was also collected. Respondents provided ratings for a wide range of social and environmental risks, provided information on priorities for strengthening key buildings and infrastructure facilities, and answered hypothetical questions about voting for bond measures to pay for city earthquake mitigation programs. Respondents recognized significant risk from earthquakes and supported programs to protect people, especially vulnerable residents such as children and the sick. There was strong support for protecting emergency response capabilities. There was much less support for using public funds to reduce the risks associated with privately owned buildings. There were also some strong pockets of resistance to publicly funded mitigation programs in response to the hypothetical bond measures.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00400.x
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  • 28
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    Hormesis: A Highly Generalizable and Reproducible Phenomenon With Important Implications for Risk Assessment (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: From a comprehensive search of the literature, the hormesis phenomenon was found to occur over a wide range of chemicals, taxonomic groups, and endpoints. By use of computer searches and extensive cross-referencing, nearly 3000 potentially relevant articles were identified. Evidence of chemical and radiation hormesis was judged to have occurred in approximately 10oO of these by use of a priori criteria. These criteria included study design features (e.g., number of doses, dose range), dose-response relationship, statistical analysis, and reproducibility of results. Numerous biological endpoints were assessed, with growth responses the most prevalent, followed by metabolic effects, reproductive responses, longevity, and cancer. Hormetic responses were generally observed to be of limited magnitude with an average maximum stimulation of 30 to 60 percent over that of the controls. This maximum usually occurred 4- to 5-fold below the NOAEL for a particular endpoint. The present analysis suggests that hormesis is a reproducible and generalizable biological phenomenon and is a fundamental component of many, if not most, dose-response relationships. The relatively infrequent observation of homesis in the literature is believed to be due primarily to experimental design considerations, especially with respect to the number and range of doses and endpoint selection. Because of regulatory considerations, most toxicologic studies have been carried out at high doses above the low-dose region where the hormesis phenomenon occurs.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00404.x
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  • 29
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    Call for Nominations: Area Editor in Social Sciences and Decision Making for Risk Analysis: An International Journal (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00408.x
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    Opening Editorial (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00378.x
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    Response to “Eyes Closed Simple, Intuitive, Statistically Sound, and Efficient Methods for Estimating Parameters of Clonal Growth Cancer Models” (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00379.x
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    Context in the Risk Assessment of Digital Systems (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: As the use of digital computers for instrumentation and control of safety-critical systems has increased, there has been a growing debate over the issue of whether probabilistic risk assessment techniques can be applied to these systems. This debate has centered on the issue of whether software failures can be modeled probabilistically. This paper describes a “context-based” approach to software risk assessment that explicitly recognizes the fact that the behavior of software is not probabilistic. The source of the perceived uncertainty in its behavior results from both the input to the software as well as the application and environment in which the software is operating. Failures occur as the result of encountering some context for which the software was not properly designed, as opposed to the software simply failing “randomly.” The paper elaborates on the concept of “error-forcing context” as it applies to software. It also illustrates a methodology which utilizes event trees, fault trees, and the Dynamic Flowgraph Methodology (DFM) to identify “error-forcing contexts” for software in the form of fault tree prime implicants.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00383.x
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    Uncertainty in Comparative Risk Analysis for Threatened Australian Plant Species (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Australian state and federal agencies use a broad range of methods for setting conservation priorities for species at risk. Some of these are based on rule sets developed by the International Union for the Conservation ofNature, while others use point scoring protocols to assess threat. All of them ignore uncertainty in the data. In this study, we assessed the conservation status of 29 threatened vascular plants from Tasmania and New South Wales using a variety of methods including point scoring and rule-based approaches. In addition, several methods for dealing with uncertainty in the data were applied to each of the prioritysetting schemes. The results indicatethat the choice of a protocol for setting priorities and the choice of the way in which uncertainty is treated may make important differences to the resulting assessments of risk. The choice among methods needs to be rationalized within the management context in which it is to be applied. These methods are not a substitute for more formal risk assessment.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00430.x
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    The Power of Perception: Health Risk Attributed to Air Pollution in anUrban Industrial Neighbourhood (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: This paper describes a multi-stakeholder process designed to assess thepotential health risks associated with adverse air quality in an urban industrial neighborhood. The paper briefly describes the quantitative health risk assessment conducted by scientific experts, with input by a grassroots community group concerned about the impacts of adverse air quality on theirhealth and quality of life. In this case, rather than accept the views of the scientific experts, the community used their powers of perception toadvantage by successfully advocating for a professionally conducted community health survey. This survey was designed to document, systematically and rigorously, the health risk perceptions community members associated with exposure to adverse air quality in their neighborhood. This paper describes theinstitutional and community contexts within which the research is situated as well as the design, administration, analysis, and results of the community health survey administered to 402 households living in an urban industrial neighborhood in Hamilton, Ontario, Canada. These survey results served tolegitimate the community's concerns about air quality and tohelp broaden operational definitions of ‘health.’ In addition, the resultsof both healthrisk assessment exercises served to keep issues of air quality on the localpolitical agenda. Implications of these findings for our understanding of theenvironmental justice process as well as the ability of communitiesto influence environmental health policy are discussed.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00433.x
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    Simultaneous Analysis of Individual and Aggregate Responses in Psychometric Data Using Multilevel Modeling (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Psychometric data on risk perceptions are often collected using the method developed by Slovic, Fischhoff, and Lichtenstein, where an array of risk issues are evaluated with respect to a number of risk characteristics, such as how dreadful, catastrophic or involuntary exposure to each risk is. The analysis of these data has often been carried out at an aggregate level, where mean scores for all respondents are compared between risk issues. However, this approach may conceal important variation between individuals, and individual analyses have also been performed for single risk issues. This paper presents a new methodological approach using a technique called multilevel modelling for analysing individual and aggregated responses simultaneously, to produce unconditional and unbiased results at both individual and aggregate levels of the data. Two examples are given using previously published data sets on risk perceptions collected by the authors, and results between the traditional and new approaches compared. The discussion focuses on the implications of and possibilities provided by the new methodology.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00437.x
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    Comparison of Six Dose-Response Models for Use with Food-Borne Pathogens (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Food-related illness in the United States is estimated to affect over six million people per year and cost the economy several billion dollars. These illnesses and costs could be reduced if minimum infectious doses were established and used as the basis of regulations and monitoring. However, standard methodologies for dose-response assessment are not yet formulated for microbial risk assessment. The objective of this study was to compare dose response models for food-borne pathogens and determine which models were most appropriate for a range of pathogens. The statistical models proposed in the literature and chosen for comparison purposes were log-normal,(19) log-logistic,(17) exponential,(7,9,17)ß-Poisson(7,9,18) and Welbull-Gamma.(3) These were fit to four data sets also taken from published literature, Shigella fiexneri,(9,12,13)Shigella dysenteriae,(9,11)Campylobacter jejuni,(15,16) and Salmonella typhosa,(7,14) usingthe method of maximum likelihood. The Weibull-gamma, the only model with three parameters, was also the only model capable of fitting all the data sets examined using the maximum likelihood estimation for comparisons. Infectious doses were also calculated using each model. Within any given data set, the infectious dose estimated to affect one percent of the population ranged from one order of magnitude to as much as nine orders of magnitude, illustrating the differences in extrapolation of the dose response models. More data are needed to compare models and examine extrapolation from high to low doses for food-borne pathogens.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb01130.x
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    Risk Perception in Context: The Savannah River Site Stakeholder Study (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Environmental managers are increasingly charged with involving the public in the development and modification of policies regarding risks to huma health and the environment. Involving the public in environmental decision making first requires a broad understanding of how and why the public perceives various risks. The Savannah River Stakeholder Study was conducted withthe purpose of investigating individual, economic, and social characteristics of risk perceptions among those living near the Savannah River Nuclear Weapons Site. A number of factors were found to impact risk perceptions among those living near the site. One's estimated proximity to the site and relative river location surfaced as strong determinants of risk perceptions among SRS residents. Additionally, living in a quality neighborhood and demonstrating a willingness to accept health risks for economic gain strongly abated heightened risk perceptions.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb01125.x
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    Evaluation of Atmospheric Transport Models for Use in Phase I1 of the Historical Public Exposures Studies at the Rocky Flats Plant (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Five atmospheric transport models were evaluated for use in Phase I1 ofthe Historical Public Exposures Studies at the Rocky Flats Plant. Models included a simple straight-line Gaussian plume model (ISCST2), several integrated puff models (RATCHET, TRIAD, and INPUFF2), and a complex terrain mode (TRAC). Evaluations were based on how well model predictions compared with sulfur hexafluoride tracer measurements taken in the vicinity of Rocky Flats in February 1991. Twelve separate tracer experiments were conducted, eac lasting 9 hr and measured at 140 samplers in arcs 8 and 16 km from the release point at Rocky Flats. Four modeling objectives were defined based on the endpoints of the overall study: (1) the unpaired maximum hourly average concentration, (2) paired time-averaged concentration, (3) unpaired time-averaged concentration, and (4) arc-integrated concentration. Performance measures were used to evaluate models and focused on the geometric mean and standard deviation of the predicted-to-observed ratio and the correlation coefficient between predicted and observed concentrations. No one model consistently outperformed the others in all modeling objectives and performance measures. About 75% of the maximum hourly concentration predictions were within a factor of 5 of the observations. About 64% of the paired and 80% of the unpaired time-averaged model predictions were within a factor of 5 of theobservations. The overall performance of the RATCHET model was somewhat better than the other models. All models appeared to experience difficulty defining plume trajectories, which was attributed to the influence of multilayered flow initiated by terrain complexities and the diurnal flow patterns characteristic of the Colorado Front Range.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00428.x
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    Statistical Evaluation of Population Data for Calculation of Radioactive Material Transport Accident Risks (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Calculation of accident dose-risk estimates with the RADTRAN code requires input data describing the population likely to be affected by the plumeof radioactive material (RAM) released in a hypothetical transportation accident. In the existing model, population densities within 1/2 mile (0.8 km)of the route centerline are tabulated in three ranges (Rural, Suburban, andUrban). These population densities may be of questionable validity since the plume in the RADTRAN analysis is assumed to extend out to 120 km from thehypothetical accident site. We present a GIs-based population model which accounts for the actual distribution of population under a potential plume, and compare accident-risk estimates based on the resulting population densities with those based on the existing model. Results for individual points along a route differ greatly, but the cumulative accident risks for a sample route of a few hundred kilometers are found to be comparable, if not identical. We conclude, therefore, that for estimation of aggregate accident risks over typical routes of several hundred kilometers, the existing, simpler RADTRAN model is sufficiently detailed and accurate.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00432.x
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    Editorial on the Nugget Papers (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00438.x
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    Challenges to the Acceptance of Probabilistic Risk Analysis (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: This paper discusses a number of the key challenges to the acceptance and aplication of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). Those challenges include:(a) the extensive reliance on subjective judgment in PRA, requiring the development of guidance for the use of PRA in risk-informed regulation, and possibly the development of “robust” or “reference” prior distributions to minimize the reliance on judgment; and (b) the treatment of human perfor-mance in PRA, including not only human errorperse but also management and organizational factors more broadly. All of these areas are seen as presentinginteresting research challenges at the interface between engineering and other disciplines.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00440.x
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    Bayesian Forecasting via Deterministic Model (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Rational decision making requires that the total uncertainty about a variate of interest (a predictand) be quantified in terms of a probability distribution, conditional on all available information and knowledge. Supposethe state-of-knowledge is embodied in a deterministic model, which is imperfect and outputs only an estimate of the predictand. Fundamentals are presented of two Bayesian methods for producing a probabilistic forecast via anydeterministic model. The Bayesian Processor of Forecast (BPF) quantifies the total uncertainty in terms of a posterior distribution, conditional on model output. The Bayesian Forecasting System (BFS) decomposes the total uncertainty into input uncertainty and model uncertainty, which are characterized independently and then integrated into a predictive distribution. The BFS is compared with Monte Carlo simulation and “ensemble forecasting” technique, none of which can alone produce a probabilistic forecast that quantifies the total uncertainty, but each can serve as a component of the BFS.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00443.x
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    A Risk Assessment Method for Biological Introductions (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: This article describes an application of a method for assessing risks associated with the introduction of an organism into a new environment. The test organism was a binucleate Rhizoctonia fungal isolate that has potential for commercial development as a biological control agent for damping-off diseases in bedding plants. A test sample of host plant species was selected using the centrifugal phylogenetic host range principles, but with an emphasis on economic species. The effect of the fungus on the plant was measured for each species and expressed on a logarithmic scale. The effects on weights of shoots and roots per container were not normally distributed, nor were the effects on the number of plants standing (those which survived). Statements about the effect on the number standing and the shoot weight per container involved using the observed (empirical) distribution. This is illustrated with an example. Problems were encountered in defining the population of species at risk, and in deciding how this population should be formally sampled. The limitations of the method are discussed.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00410.x
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    Heuristic-Systematic Information Processing and Risk Judgment (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: The heuristic-systematic information processing model (HSM) holds that individuals will use one or both of these modes of information processing when attempting to evaluate information in order to arrive at a judgment. Systematic processing is defined by effortful scrutiny and comparison of information, whereas heuristic processing is defined by the use of cues to amve more easily at a judgment. Antecedents to the two processing modes include information sufficiency, motivation, and self-efficacy. Structural equation modeling is used to examine competing configuration of this model and to evaluate the model as appropriate for predicting risk judgment. The model also is evaluated across three groups that vary with respect to their level of concern. These analyses are executed within a case study involving an epidemiological investigation of a suspected cancer cluster. The analysis confirms the HSM's theoretically proposed structure and shows it to be a useful vehicle for evaluating risk judgment. In the overall analysis, antecedent variables generally function as specified by theory. Systematic processing is predicted by greater motivation. Heuristic processing is predicted by information sufficiency. Self-efficacy is a significant predictor of both processing modes. And heuristic processing is shown to be associated with judgment of less risk. However, when the analysis is contrasted across three groups (those concerned about cancer, not concerned and uncertain) it is shown that the model is significantly more robust for the uncertain group. This finding may have implications for the use of the HSM in risk research specifically, and in field research generally.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00415.x
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    Factors in Exposure Assessment: Ethnic and Socioeconomic Differences in Fishing and Consumption of Fish Caught along the Savannah River (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: South Carolina has issued fish consumption advisories for the Savannah River based on mercury and radionuclide levels. We examine differences in fishing rates and fish consumption of 258 people interviewed while fishing along the Savannah River, as a function of age, education, ethnicity, employment history, and income, and test the assumption that the average consumption of fish is less than the recreational value of 19 kg/year assumed by risk assessors. Ethnicity and education contributed significantly to explaining variations in number of fish meals per month, serving size, and total quantity of fish consumed per year. Blacks fished more often, ate more fish meals of slightly larger serving sizes, and consumed more fish per year than did Whites. Although education and income were correlated, education contributed most significantly to behavior; people who did not graduate from high school ate fish more often, ate more fish per year, and ate more whole fish than people who graduated from high school. Computing consumption of fish for each person individually indicates that (1) people who eat fish more often also eat larger portions, (2) a substantial number of people consume more than the amount of fish used to compute risk to recreational fishermen, (3) some people consume more than the subsistence level default assumption (50 kglyear) and (4) Blacks consume more fish per year than Whites, putting them at greater risk from contaminants in fish. Overall, ethnicity, age, and education contributed to variations in fishing behavior and consumption.
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    Methods for Detecting and Estimating Population Threshold Concentrations for Air Pollution-Related Mortality with Exposure Measurement Error (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: The association between daily fluctuations in ambient particulate matter and daily variations in nonaccidental mortality have been extensively investigated. Although it is now widely recognized that such an association exists, the form of the concentration-response model is still in question. Linear, no threshold and linear threshold models have been most commonly examined. In this paper we considered methods to detect and estimate threshold concentrations using time series data of daily mortality rates and air pollution concentrations. Because exposure is measured with error, we also considered the influence of measurement error in distinguishing between these two completing model specifications. The methods were illustrated on a 15-year daily time series of nonaccidental mortality and particulate air pollution data in Toronto, Canada. Nonparametric smoothed representations of the association between mortality and air pollution were adequate to graphically distinguish between these two forms. Weighted nonlinear regression methods for relative risk models were adequate to give nearly unbiased estimates of threshold concentrations even under conditions of extreme exposure measurement error. The uncertainty in the threshold estimates increased with the degree of exposure error. Regression models incorporating threshold concentrations could be clearly distinguished from linear relative risk models in the presence of exposure measurement error. The assumption of a linear model given that a threshold model was the correct form usually resulted in overestimates in the number of averted premature deaths, except for low threshold concentrations and large measurement error.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00423.x
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    Who Lives Near Coke Plants and Oil Refineries? An Exploration of the vironmental Inequity Hypothesis (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Facility-specific information on pollution was obtained for 36 coke plants and 46 oil refineries in the United States and matched with information on populations surrounding these 82 facilities. These data were analyzed to determine whether environmental inequities were present, whether they were more economic or racial in nature, and whether the racial composition of nearby communities has changed significantly since plants began operations. The Census tracts near coke plants have a disproportionate share of poor and nonwhite residents. Multivariate analyses suggest that existing inequities are primarily economic in nature. The findings for oil refineries are not strongly supportive of the environmental inequity hypothesis. Rank ordering of facilities by race, poverty, and pollution produces limited (although not consistent) evidence that the more risky facilities tend to be operating in communities with above-median proportions of nonwhite residents (near coke plants) and Hispanic residents (near oil refineries). Over time, the racial makeup of many communities near facilities has changed significantly, particularly in the case of coke plants sited in the early 1900s. Further risk-oriented studies of multiple manufacturing facilities in various industrial sectors of the economy are recommended.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00398.x
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    Fundamentals of Health Risk Assessment. Use, Derivation, Validity and Limitations of Safety Indices (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: We investigated the way results of human health risk assessments are used, and the theory used to describe those methods, sometimes called the “NAS paradigm.” Contrary to a key tenet of that theory, current methods have strictly limited utility. The characterizations now considered standard, Safety Indices such as “Acceptable Daily Intake,”“Reference Dose,” and so on, usefully inform only decisions that require a choice between two policy alternatives (e.g., approve a food additive or not), decided solely on the basis of a finding of safety. Riskis characterized as the quotient of one of these Safety Indices divided by an estimate of exposure: a quotient greater than one implies that the situation may be considered safe. Such decisions are very widespread, both in the U. S. federal government and elsewhere. No current method is universal; different policies lead to different practices, for example, in California's “Proposition 65,” where statutory provisions specify some practices. Further, an important kind of human health risk assessment is not recognized by this theory: this kind characterizes risk as likelihood of harm, given estimates of exposure consequent to various decision choices. Likelihood estimates are necessary whenever decision makers have many possible decision choices and must weigh more than two societal values, such as in EPA's implementation of “conventional air pollutants.” These estimates can not be derived using current methods; different methods are needed. Our analysis suggests changes needed in both the theory and practice of human health risk assessment, and how what is done is depicted.
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    Estimating Noncancer Uncertainty Factors: Are Ratios NOAELs Informative? (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: The prominent role of animal bioassay evidence in environmental regulatory decisions compels a careful characterization of extrapolation uncertainties. In noncancer risk assessment, uncertainty factors are incorporated to account for each of several extrapolations required to convert a bioassay outcome into a putative subthreshold dose for humans. Measures of relative toxicity taken between different dosing regimens, different endpoints, or different species serve as a reference for establishing the uncertainty factors. Ratios of no observed adverse effect levels (NOAELs) have been used for this purpose; statistical summaries of such ratios across sets of chemicals are widely used to guide the setting of uncertainty factors. Given the poor statistical properties of NOAELs, the informativeness of these summary statistics is open to question. To evaluate this, we develop an approach to “calibrate” the ability of NOAEL ratios to reveal true properties of a specified distribution for relative toxicity. A priority of this analysis is to account for dependencies of NOAEL ratios on experimental design and other exogenous factors. Our analysis of NOAEL ratio summary statistics finds (1) that such dependencies are complex and produce pronounced systematic errors and (2) that sampling error associated with typical sample sizes (50 chemicals) is nonnegligible. These uncertainties strongly suggest that NOAEL ratio summary statistics cannot be taken at face value; conclusions based on such ratios reported in well over a dozen published papers should be reconsidered.
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    A Comparison of Regulatory Implications of Traditional and Exact Two-Stage Dose-Response Models (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: We compare the regulatory implications of applying the traditional (linearized) and exact two-stage dose-response models to animal carcinogenic data. We analyze dose-response data from six studies, representing five different substances, and we determine the “goodness- of-fit” of each model as well as the 95% confidence lower limit ofthe dose corresponding to a target excess risk of 10-5 (the target risk doseTRD). For the two concave datasets, we find that the exact model gives a substantially better fit to the data than the traditional model, and that the exact model gives aTRD that is an order of magnitude lower than that given by the traditional model. In the other cases, the exact model gives a fit equivalent to or better than the traditional model. We also show that although the exact two-stage model may exhibit dose-response concavity at moderate dose levels, it is always linear or sublinear, and never supralinear, in the low-dose limit. Because regulatory concern is almost always confined to the low-dose region extrapolation, supralinear behavior seems not to be of regulatory concern in the exact two-stage model. Finally, we find that when performing this low-dose extrapolation in cases of dose-response concavity, extrapolating the model fit leads to a more conservative TRD than taking a linear extrapolation from 10% excess risk. We conclude with a set of recommendations.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00382.x
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    Mixed Levels of Uncertainty in Complex Policy Models (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: The characterization and treatment of uncertainty poses special challenges when modeling indeterminate or complex coupled systems such as those involved in the interactions between human activity, climate and the ecosystem. Uncertainty about model structure may become as, or more important than, uncertainty about parameter values. When uncertainty grows so large that prediction or optimization no longer makes sense, it may still be possible to use the model as a “behavioral test bed” to examine the relative robustness of alternative observational and behavioral strategies. When modelsmust be run into portions of their phase space that are not well understood, different submodels may become unreliable at different rates. A common example involves running a time stepped model far into the future. Several strategies can be used to deal with such situations. The probability of model failure can be reported as a function of time. Possible alternative “surprises” can be assigned probabilities, modeled separately, and combined. Finally, through the use of subjective judgments, one may be able to combine, and over time shift between models, moving from more detailed to progressively simpler order-of-magnitude models, and perhaps ultimately, on to simple bounding analysis.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00384.x
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    Decision-Making with Heterogeneous Sources of Information (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: In any model the values of estimates for various parameters are obtained from different sources each with its own level of uncertainty. When the probability distributions of the estimates are obtained as opposed to point values only, the measurement uncertainties in the parameter estimates may be addressed. However, the sources used for obtaining the data and the models used to select appropriate distributions are of differing degrees of uncertainty. A hierarchy of different sources of uncertainty based upon one's ability to validate data and models empirically is presented. When model parameters are aggregated with different levels of the hierarchy represented, this implies distortion or degradation in the utility and validity of the models used. Means to identify and deal with such heterogeneous data sourcesare explored, and a number of approaches to addressing this problem is presented. One approach, using Range/confidence Estimates coupled with an Information Value Analysis Process, is presented as an example.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00390.x
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    Methods for Characterizing Variability and Uncertainty: Comparison of Bootstrap Simulation and Likelihood-Based Approaches (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Variability arises due to differences in the value of a quantity among different members of a population. Uncertainty arises due to lack of knowledge regarding the true value of a quantity for a given member of a population. We describe and evaluate two methods for quantifying both variability and uncertainty. These methods, bootstrapsimulation and a likelihood-based method, are applied to three datasets. The datasetsinclude a synthetic sample of 19 values from a Lognormal distribution, a sample of nine values obtained from measurements of the PCB concentration in leafy produce, and asample of five values for the partitioning of chromium in the flue gas desulfurization system of coal-fired power plants. For each of these datasets, we employ the two methods to characterize uncertainty in the arithmetic mean and standard deviation, cumulative distribution functions based upon fitted parametric distributions, the 95th percentile of variability, and the 63rd percentile of uncertainty for the 81st percentile of variability. The latter is intended to show that it is possible to describe anypoint within the uncertain frequency distribution by specifying an uncertainty percentile and a Variability percentile. Using the bootstrap method, we compare results based upon use of the method of matching moments and the method of maximum likelihood for fitting distributions to data. Our results indicate that with only 5-19 data pointsas in the datasets we have evaluated, there is substantial uncertainty based upon random sampling error. Both the boostrap and likelihood-based approaches yield comparable uncertainty estimates in most cases.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00393.x
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    Adaptive Spatial Sampling of Contaminated Soil (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Suppose that a residential neighborhood may have been contaminated by anearby abandoned hazardous waste site. The suspected contamination consistsof elevated soil concentrations of chemicals that are also found in the absence of site-related contamination. How should a risk manager decide which residential properties to sample and which ones to clean? This paper introduces an adaptive spatial sampling approach which uses initial observations to guide subsequent search. Unlike some recent model-based spatial data analysis methods, it does not require any specific statistical model for the spatial distribution of hazards, but instead constructs an increasingly accurate nonparametric approximation to it as sampling proceeds. Possible cost-effective sampling and cleanup decision rules are described by decision parameters such as the number of randomly selected locations used to initialize the process, the number of highest-concentration locations searched around, the number of samples taken at each location, a stopping rule, and a remediation action threshold. These decision parameters are optimized by simulating the performance of each decision rule. The simulation is performed using the data collected so far to impute multiple probable values ofunknown soil concentration distributions during each simulation run. This optimized adaptive spatial sampling technique has been applied to real data using error probabilities for wrongly cleaning or wrongly failing to clean each location (compared to the action that would be taken if perfect information were available) as evaluation criteria. It provides a practical approach for quantifying trade-offs between these different types of errors and expected cost. It also identifies strategies that are undominated with respect to all of these criteria.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb01127.x
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    Quantifying Uncertainty in a Risk Assessment Using Human Data (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: A call for risk assessment approaches that better characterize and quantify uncertainty has been made by the scientific and regulatory community. This paper responds to that call by demonstrating a distributional approachthat draws upon human data to derive potency estimates and to identify and quantify important sources of uncertainty. The approach is rooted in the science of decision analysis and employs an influence diagram, a decision tree, probabilistic weights, and a distribution of point estimates of carcinogenic potency. Its results estimate the likelihood of different carcinogenicrisks (potencies) for a chemical under a specific scenario. For this exercise, human data on formaldehyde were employed to demonstrate the approach. Sensitivity analyses were performed to determine the relative impact of specific levels and alternatives on the potency distribution. The resulting potency estimates are compared with the results of an exercise using animal data on formaldehyde. The paper demonstrates that distributional risk assessment is readily adapted to situations in which epidemiologic data serve as the basis for potency estimates. Strengths and weaknesses of the distributional approach are discussed. Areas for further application and research are recommended.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb01129.x
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    Cancer Dose-Response Modeling of Epidemiological Data on Worker Exposures to Aldrin and Dieldrin (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: The paper applies classical statistical principles to yield new tools for risk assessment and makes new use of epidemiological data for human riskassessment. An extensive clinical and epidemiological study of workers engaged in the manufacturing and formulation of aldrin and dieldrin provides occupational hygiene and biological monitoring data on individual exposures over the years of employment and provides unusually accurate measures of individual lifetime average daily doses. In the cancer dose-response modeling, each worker is treated as a separate experimental unit with his own unique dose. Maximum likelihood estimates of added cancer risk are calculated for multistage, multistage-Weibull, and proportional hazards models. Distributional characterizations of added cancer risk are based on bootstrap and relative likelihood techniques. The cancer mortality data on these male workerssuggest that low-dose exposures to aldrin and dieldrin do not significantlyincrease human cancer risk and may even decrease the human hazard rate for all types of cancer combined at low doses (e.g., 1μg/kg/day). The apparent hormetic effect in the best fitting dose-response models for this data set is statistically significant. The decrease in cancer risk at low doses ofaldrin and dleldrin is in sharp contrast to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's upper bound on cancer potency based on mouse liver tumors. The EPA's upper bound implies that lifetime average daily doses of 0.0000625 and 0.00625 pμg/kg body weight/day would correspond to increased cancer risks of 0.000001 and O.OOO1, respectively. However, the best estimate from the Pernis epidemiological data is that there is no increase in cancer risk in these workers at these doses or even at doses as large as 2 μg/kg/day.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb01131.x
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    Ethylene Oxide Cancer Risk Assessment Based on Epidemiological Data: Application of Revised Regulatory Guidelines (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Ethylene oxide (EO) research has significantly increased since the 1980s, when regulatory risk assessments were last completed on the basis of theanimal cancer chronic bioassays. In tandem with the new scientific understanding, there have been evolutionary changes in regulatory risk assessment guidelines, that encourage flexibility and greater use of scientific information. The results of an updated meta-analysis of the findings from 10 unique EO study cohorts from five countries, including nearly 33,000 workers, and over 800 cancers are presented, indicating that EO does not cause increased risk of cancers overall or of brain, stomach or pancreatic cancers. The findings for leukemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) are inconclusive. Two studies with the requisite attributes of size, individual exposure estimates and follow up are the basis for dose-response modeling and added lifetime risk predictions under environmental and occupational exposure scenariosand a variety of plausible alternative assumptions. A point of departure analysis, with various margins of exposure, is also illustrated using human data. The two datasets produce remarkably similar leukemia added risk predictions, orders of magnitude lower than prior animal-based predictions under conservative, default assumptions, with risks on the order of 1 × 10−6 or lower for exposures in the low ppb range. Inconsistent results for “lymphoid” tumors, a non-standard grouping using histologic information from death certificates, are discussed. This assessment demonstrates the applicability of the current risk assessment paradigm to epidemiological data.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb01134.x
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    Parameter Uncertainty and Variability In Evaluative Fate and Exposure Models (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: The human toxicity potential, a weighting scheme used to evaluate toxicemissions for life cycle assessment and toxics release inventories, is based on potential dose calculations and toxicity factors. This paper evaluatesthe variance in potential dose calculations that can be attributed to the uncertainty in chemical-specific input parameters as well as the variabilit in exposure factors and landscape parameters. A knowledge of the uncertainty allows us to assess the robustness of a decision based on the toxicity potential; a knowledge of the sources of uncertainty allows us to focus our resources if we want to reduce the uncertainty. The potential dose of 236 chemicals was assessed. The chemicals were grouped by dominant exposure route, and a Monte Carlo analysis was conducted for one representative chemical in each group. The variance is typically one to two orders of magnitude. For comparison, the point estimates in potential dose for 236 chemicals span ten orders of magnitude. Most of the variance in the potential dose is due to chemical-specific input parameters, especially half-lives, although exposure factors such as fish intake and the source of drinking water can be important for chemicals whose dominant exposure is through indirect routes. Landscape characteristics are generally of minor importance.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb01138.x
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    Risk-Based Assessment of Soil and Groundwater Quality in the Netherlands: Standards and Remediation Urgency (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: To assess soil and groundwater quality two generic (i.e. multifunctional) risk-based standards, Target and Intervention Value, have been developed, in the framework of the Dutch Soil Protection Act. These standards allow soil and groundwater to be classified as clean, slightly contaminated or seriously contaminated. The Target Value is basedon potential risks to ecosysystems, while the Intervention Value is based oqpotential risks to humans and ecosystems. In the case of serious soil contamination the site has, in principle, to be remediated, making it necessary to determine the remediation urgency on the basis of actual (i.e. site-specific) risks to humans and ecosystems and, besides, actual risks due to contaminant migration.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb01142.x
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    Resolution of the Long-Term Performance Issues at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is a geological repository for disposal ofU.S. defense transuranic radioactive waste. Built and operated by the U.S. Departmentof Energy (DOE), it is located in the Permian age salt beds in southeastern New Mexico at a depth of 655 m. Performance assessment for the repository's compliance with the 10,000-year containment standards was completed in 1996 and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) certified in 1998 that the repository meets compliance with the EPA standards 40 CFR 191 and 40 CFR 194. The Environmental Evaluation Group (EEG) review of the DOE'S application for certification identified a number of issues. These related to the scenarios, conceptual models, and values of the input parameters used in the calculations. It is expected that these issues will be addressed and resolved during the first 5-year recertification process that began with the first receipt of waste at WIPP on March 26, 1999, and scheduled to be completed in March 2004.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00458.x
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    An Evaluation of Risk Estimation Procedures for Mixtures of Carcinogens (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: The estimation of health risks from exposure to a mixture of chemical carcinogens is generally based on the combination of information from several available single compound studies. The current practice of directly summing the upper bound risk estimates of individual carcinogenic components as an upper bound on the total risk of a mixture is known to be generally too conservative. Gaylor and Chen (1996, Risk Analysis) proposed a simple procedure to compute an upper bound on the total risk using only the upper confidence limits and central risk estimates of individual carcinogens. The Gaylor-Chen procedure was derived based on an underlying assumption of the normality for the distributions of individual risk estimates. In this paper we evaluated the Gaylor-Chen approach in terms of the coverage probability. The performance of the Gaylor-Chen approach in terms the coverages of the upper confidence limits on the true risks of individual carcinogens. In general, if the coverage probabilities for the individual carcinogens are all approximately equal to the nominal level, then the Gaylor-Chen approach shouldperform well. However, the Gaylor-Chen approach can be conservative or anti-conservative if some or all individual upper confidence limit estimates are conservative or anti-conservative.
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    Stringency of Workplace Air Contaminant Exposure Limits: A Case Study of OSHA Risk Management (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Political context may play a large role in influencing the efficiency of environmental and health regulations. This case study uses data from a 1989 update of the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) Permissible Exposure Limits (PELS) program to determine the relative effects of legislative mandates, costly acquisition of information by the agency, and pressure applied by special interest groups upon exposure standards. The empirical analysis suggests that federal agencies successfully thwart legislative attempts to limit agency discretion, and that agencies exercise bounded rationality by placing greater emphasis on more easily obtained information. The 1989 PEL were less significantly related to more costly information, contained “safety factors” for chemicals presenting relatively more ambiguous risks, and the proposed standard stringencies showed evidence of beinginfluenced by vying industry and labor interests.
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    On Modeling Correlated Random Variables in Risk Assessment (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Monte Carlo methods in risk assessment are finding increasingly widespread application. With the recognition that inputs may be correlated, the incorporation of such correlations into the simulation has become important. Most implementations rely upon the method of Iman and Conover for generating correlated random variables. In this work, alternative methods using copulas are presented for deriving correlated random variables. It is further shown that the particular algorithm or assumption used may have a substantial effect on the output results, due to differences in higher order bivariate moments.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb01139.x
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    B. Extremes, Extrapolation, And Surprise (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00387.x
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    A Survey of Approaches for Assessing and Managing the Risk of Extremes (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: In this paper, we review methods for assessing and managing the risk of extreme events, where “extreme events” are defined to be rare, severe, and outside the normal range of experience of the system in question. First, we discuss several systematic approaches for identifying possible extreme events. We then discuss some issues related to risk assessment of extreme events, including what type of output is needed (e.g., a single probability vs. a probability distribution), and alternatives to the probabilistic approach. Next, we present a number of probabilistic methods. These include : guidelines for eliciting informative probability distributions from experts; maximum entropy distributions; extreme value theory; other approaches for constructing prior distributions (such as reference or noninformative priors); the use of modeling and decomposition to estimate the probability (or distribution) of interest; and bounding methods. Finally, we briefly discuss several approaches for managing the risk of extreme events, and conclude with recommendations and directions for future research.
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    Human Interindividual Variability in Parameters Related to Health Risks (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: This paper reviews existing data on the variability in parameters relevant for health risk analyses. We cover both exposure-related parameters andparameters related to individual susceptibility to toxicity. The toxicity/susceptibility data base under construction is part of a longer term research effort to lay the groundwork for quantitative distributional analyses of non-cancer toxic risks. These data are broken down into a variety of parameter types that encompass different portions of the pathway from external exposure to the production of biological responses. The discrete steps in this pathway, as we now conceive them, are:〈list xml:id="l2" style="custom"〉•Contact Rate (Breathing rates per body weight; fish consumption per bodyweight)•Uptake or Absorption as a Fraction of Intake or Contact Rate•General Systemic Availability Net of First Pass Elimination and Dilutionvia Distribution Volume (e.g., intial blood concentration per mg/kg of uptake)•Systemic Elimination (half life or clearance)•Active Site Concentration per Systemic Blood or Plasma Concentration•Physiological Parameter Change per Active Site Concentration (expressed as the dose required to make a given percentage change in different people, or the dose required to achieve some proportion of an individual's maximum response to the drug or toxicant)•Functional Reserve Capacity-Change in Baseline Physiological Parameter Needed to Produce a Biological Response or Pass a Criterion of Abnormal FunctionComparison of the amounts of variability observed for the different parameter types suggests that appreciable variability is associated with the final step in the process-differences among people in “functional reserve capacity.” This has the implication that relevant information for estimatingeffective toxic susceptibility distributions may be gleaned by direct studies of the population distributions of key physiological parameters in people that are not exposed to the environmental and occupational toxicants thatare thought to perturb those parameters. This is illustrated with some recent observations of the population distributions of Low Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol from the second and third National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys.
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    Ethical Issues in Risk Communication: Continuing the Discussion (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Proposed in this article is one possible framework for classifying multiple types of ethical issues in risk communication research and practice to help continue a discussion initiated in 1990 by Morgan and Lave. Some of the questions that each stage of the process for planning risk communication strategies appears to pose for ethics are discussed (e.g., selecting issues to be communicated, knowing the issue, dealing with constraints). Also discussed briefly are some issues raised by the possibility that risk communicators aspire to the status of a profession. The purpose is to foster discussion rather than issue a conclusive statement on the topic, because its very nature makes a definitive pronouncement indefensible.
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    Distribution of Exposure Concentrations and Doses for Constituents of Environmental Tobacco Smoke (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: The ultimate goal of the research reported in this series of three articles is to derive distributions of doses of selected environmental tobacco smoke (ETS)-related chemicals for nonsmoking workers. This analysis uses data from the 16-City Study collected with personal monitors over the course of one workday in workplaces where smoking occurred. In this article, we describe distributions of ETS chemical concentrations and the characteristicsof those distributions (e.g., whether the distribution was log normal for agiven constituent) for the workplace exposure. Next, we present population parameters relevant for estimating dose distributions and the methods used for estimating those dose distributions. Finally, we derive distributions of doses of selected ETS-related constituents obtained in the workplace for people in smoking work environments. Estimating dose distributions providedinformation beyond the usual point estimate of dose and showed that the preponderance of individuals exposed to ETS in the workplace were exposed at the low end of the dose distribution curve. The results of this analysis include estimations of hourly maxima and time-weighted average (TWA) doses of nicotine from workplace exposures to ETS (extrapolated from 1 day to 1 week) and doses derived from modeled lung burdens of ultraviolet-absorbing particulate matter (UVPM) and solanesol resulting from workplace exposures to ETS (extrapolated from 1 day to 1 year).
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    Chinese and Americans Agree on What Is Fair, but Disagree on What Is Best in Societal Decisions Affecting Health and Safety Risks (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Through surveys of students and junior professionals and interviews with business and government executives, we studied Chinese choices and fairness perceptions in risky health and safety decisions. The survey responses were compared with American responses from an earlier study by Keller and Sarin.The survey results show that the American and Chinese respondents had similar fairness perceptions, but the Chinese did not make decisions that were consistent with their fairness perceptions, whereas the Americans did. We found that the middle-age Chinese professionals tended to make choices that were more different from the Americans than were the choices of the young Chinese management students. It is likely that these discrepancies were caused by cultural differences, with the younger Chinese tending to face a stronger Western influence.The insights from the survey results were enriched by interviews that revealed fairness perceptions of Chinese business and government executives.A framework to interpret cultural influences on decision making was also proposed.
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    Risk Assessment Based on Financial Data: Market Response to Airline Accidents (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: The risk of catastrophic failures, for example in the aviation and aerospace industries, can be approached from different angles (e.g., statistics when they exist, or a detailed probabilistic analysis of the system). Each new accident carries information that has already been included in the experience base or constitutes new evidence that can be used to update a previous assessment of the risk. In this paper, we take a different approach and consider the risk and the updating from the investor's point of view. Based on the market response to past airplane accidents, we examine which ones have created a “surprise response” and which ones are considered part of the risk of the airline business as previously assessed. To do so, we quantify the magnitude and the timing of the observed market response to catastrophic accidents, and we compare it to an estimate of the response that would be expected based on the true actual cost of the accident including direct and indirect costs (“full-cost information” response). First, we develop a method based on stock market data to measure the actual market response to an accident and we construct an estimate of the “full-cost information” response to such an event. We then compare the two figures for the immediate and the long-term response of the market for the affected firm, as well as for the whole industry group to which the firm belongs. As an illustration, we analyze a sample of ten fatal accidents experienced by major US domestic airlines during the last seven years. In four cases, we observed an abnormal market response. In these instances, it seems that the shareholders may have updated their estimates of the probability of a future accident in the affected airlines or more generally of the firm's future business prospects. This market reaction is not always easy to explain much less to anticipate, a fact which management should bear in mind when planning a firm's response to such an event.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00422.x
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    Sensitivity of Concentration and Risk Predictions in the PRESTO and MMSOILS Multimedia Models: Regression Technique Assessment (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: This paper describes the application of two multimedia models, PRESTO and MMSOILS, to predict contaminant migration from a landfill that contains an organic chemical (methylene chloride) and a radionuclide (uranium-238). Exposure point concentrations and human health risks are predicted, and distributions of those predictions are generated using Monte Carlo techniques. Analysis of exposure point concentrations shows that predictions of uranium-238 in groundwater differ by more than one order of magnitude between models. These differences occur mainly because PRESTO simulates uranium-238 transport through the groundwater using a one-dimensional algorithm and vertically mixes the plume over an effective mixing depth, whereas MMSOILS uses a three-dimensional algorithm and simulates a plume that resides near the surface of the aquifer.A sensitivity analysis, using stepwise multiple linear regression, is performed to evaluate which of the random variables are most important in producing the predicted distributions of exposure point concentrations and health risks. The sensitivity analysis shows that the predicted distributions can be accurately reproduced using a small subset of the random variables. Simple regression techniques are applied, for comparison, to the same scenarios, and results are similar. The practical implication of this analysis is the ability to distinguish between important versus unimportant random variables in terms of their sensitivity to selected endpoints.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00425.x
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    Geographical Dimensions and Correlates of Trust (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: A sample of 323 residents of New Jersey stratified by neighborhood quality (excellent, good, fair, poor) was gathered to determine if trust in science and technology to protect public health and environment at the societal scale was associated with trust of the local officials, such as the mayor, health officer, developers, mass media, and legislators who are guardians of the local environment. Societal (trust of science and technology) and neighborhood (mayor, health officer) dimensions of trust were found. These societal and neighborhood trust dimen-sions were weakly correlated. Respondents were divided into four trust-of-authority groups: high societal-high neighborhood, low societal-low neighborhood, high societal-low neigh-borhood, and low societal-high neighborhood. High societal-high neighborhood trust re-spondents were older, had lived in the neighborhoods for many years, were not troubled much by neighborhood or societal environmental threats, and had a strong sense of control over their environment. In strong contrast, low societal-low neighborhood trust respondents were relatively young, typically had lived in their present neighborhood for a short time, were troubled by numerous neighborhood and societal environmental threats, did not practice many personal public health practices, and felt little control over their environment.
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  • 73
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    Fishing in Urban New Jersey: Ethnicity Affects Information Sources, Pe ception, and Compliance (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Recreational and subsistence angling are important aspects of urban culture for much of North America where people are concentrated near the coasts or major rivers. Yet there are fish and shellfish advisories for many estuaries, rivers, and lakes, and these are not always heeded. This paper examines fishing behavior, sources of information, perceptions, and compliance with fishing advisories as a function of ethnicity for people fishing in the Newark Bay Complex of the New York-New Jersey Harbor. We test the null hypothesis that there were no ethnic differences in sources of information, perceptions of the safety of fish consumption, and compliance with advisories. There were ethnic differences in consumption rates, sources of information about fishing, knowledge about the safety of the fish, awareness of fishing advisories or of the correct advisories, and knowledge about risks for increased cancer and to unborn and young children. In general, the knowledge base was much lower for Hispanics, was intermediate for blacks, and was greatest for whites. When presented with a statement about the potential risks from eating fish, there were no differences in their willingness to stop eating fish or to encourage pregnant women to stop. These results indicate a willingness to comply with advisories regardless of ethnicity, but a vast difference in the base knowledge necessary to make informed risk decisions about the safety of fish and shellfish. Although the overall median income level of the population was in the $25,000-34,999 income category, for Hispanics it was on the border between $15,OOO-24,999 and $25,000-34,999.
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    Adverse Health Experiences, Environmental Attitudes, and Pesticide Usage Behavior of Farm Operators (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Water pollution from agricultural pesticides continues to be a public concern. Given that the use of such pesticides on the farm is largely governed by voluntary behavior, it is important to understand what drives farmer behavior. Health belief models in public health and social psychology argue that persons who have adverse health experiences are likely to undertake preventive behavior. An analogous hypothesis set was tested here: farmers who believe they have had adverse health experiences from pesticides are likely to have heightened concerns about pesticides and are more likely to take greater precautions in dealing with pesticides. This work is based on an original survey of a population of 2700 corn and soybean growers in Maryland, New York, and Pennsylvania using the U.S. Department of Agriculture data base. It was designed as a mail survey with telephone follow-up, and resulted in a 60 percent response rate. Farm operators report experiencing adverse health problems they believe are associated with pesticides that is equivalent to an incidence rate that is higher than the reported incidence of occupational pesticide poisonings, but similar to the reported incidence of all pesticide poisonings. Farmers who report experiencing such problems have more heightened concerns about water pollution from fertilizers and pesticides, and illness and injury from mixing, loading, and applying pesticides than farmers who have not experienced such problems. Farmers who report experiencing such problems also are more likely to report using alternative pest management practices than farmers who do not report having such problems. This implies that farmers who have had such experiences do care about the effects of application and do engage in alternative means of pest management, which at least involve the reduction in pesticide use.
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    An Alternative Exact Solution of the Two-Stage Clonal Growth Model of Cancer (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: The approximate solution of the two-stage clonal expansion model of cancer may substantially deviate from the exact solution, and may therefore lead to erroneous conclusions in particular applications. However, for time-varying parameters the exact solution (method of characteristics) is not easy to implement, hampering the accessibility of the model to nonmathematicians. Based on intuitive reasoning, Clewell et al. (1995) proposed an improved approximate solution that is easy to implement whatever time-varying behavior the parameters may have. Here we provide the mathematical foundation for the approximation suggested by Clewell et al. (1995) and show that, after a slight modification, it is in fact an exact solution for the case of time-constant parameters. We were not able to prove that it is an exact solution for time-varying parameters as well. However, several computer simulations showed that the numerical results do not differ from the exact solution as proposed by Moolgavkar and Luebeck (1990). The advantage of this alternative solution is that the hazard rate of the first malignant cell can be evaluated by numerically integrating a single differential equation.
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    C. How, When, Why to Use All of the Evidence (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
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    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
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    D. Decision Making (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
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    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
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    Beyond the Domain of Direct Observation: How to Specify a Probability Distribution that Represents the “State of Knowledge” About Uncertain Inputs (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00394.x
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    Economic Impact of Accelerated Cleanup on Regions Surrounding the U.S.DOE's Major Nuclear Weapons Sites (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: The regional economic impacts of the U.S. Department of Energy's accelerated environmental cleanup plan are estimated for the major nuclear weapons sites in Colorado, Idaho, New Mexico, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Washington. The analysis shows that the impact falls heavily on the three relatively rural regions around the Savannah River (SC), Hanford (WA), and Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (ID) sites. A less aggressive phase-down of environmental management funds and separate funds toinvest in education and infrastructure in the regions helps buffer theimpacts on jobs, personal income, and gross regional product. Policy options open to the federal and state and local governments are discussed.
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    “How Exposed Is Exposed Enough?” Lay Inferences About Chemical Exposure (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: The concept of exposure is central to chemical risk assessment and plays an important role in communicating to the public about the potential healthrisks of chemicals. Research on chemical risk perception has found some indication that the model lay people use to judge chemical exposure differs from that of toxicologists, thereby leading to different conclusions aboutchemical safety. This paper presents the results of a series of studies directed toward developing a model for understanding how lay people interpret the concept of chemical exposure. The results indicate that people'sbeliefs about chemical exposure (and its risks) are based on two broad categories of inferences. One category of inferences relates to the nature inwhich contact with a chemical has taken place, including the amount of a chemical involved and its potential health consequences. A second category ofinferences about chemical exposure relates to the pragmatics of languageinterpretation, leading to beliefs about the motives and purposes behind chemical risk communication. Risk communicators are encouraged to consider how alternative models of exposure and language interpretation can leadto conflicting conclusions on the part of the public about chemical safety.
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    Trust, Emotion, Sex, Politics, and Science: Surveying the Risk-Assessment Battlefield (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Risk management has become increasingly politicized and contentious. Polarized views, controversy, and conflict have become pervasive. Research has begun to provide a new perspective on this problem by demonstrating the complexity of the concept “risk” and the inadequacies of the traditionalview of risk assessment as a purely scientific enterprise. This paper argues that danger is real, but risk is socially constructed. Risk assessment is inherently subjective and represents a blending of science and judgmentwith important psychological, social, cultural, and political factors. In addition, our social and democratic institutions, remarkable as they are in many respects, breed distrust in the risk arena. Whoever controls the definition of risk controls the rational solution to the problem at hand. Ifrisk is defined one way, then one option will rise to the top as the most cost-effective or the safest or the best. If it is defined another way, perhaps incorporating qualitative characteristics and other contextual factors, one will likely get a different ordering of action solutions. Definingrisk is thus an exercise in power. Scientific literacy and public education are important, but they are not central to risk controversies. The public is not irrational. Their judgments about risk are influenced by emotion and affect in a way that is both simple and sophisticated. The same holds true for scientists. Public views are also influenced by worldviews, ideologies, and values; so are scientists' views, particularly when they are working at the limits of their expertise. The limitations of risk science, the importance and difficulty of maintaining trust, and the complex, sociopolitical nature of risk point to the need for a new approach-one that focuses upon introducing more public participation into both risk assessment and risk decision making in order to make the decision process more democratic, improve the relevance and quality of technical analysis, and increasethe legitimacy and public acceptance of the resulting decisions.
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    The Complementary Roles of Mitigation and Insurance in Managing Catastrophic Risks (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: This paper examines the impact that insurance coupled with specific risk mitigation measures (RMMs) could have on reducing losses from hurricanes and earthquakes as well as improving the solvency position of insurers who provide coverage against these hazards. We first explore why relatively fewindividuals adopt cost-effective RMMs by reporting on the results of empirical studies and controlled laboratory studies. We then investigate the impact that an RMM has on both the expected losses and those from a worst case scenario in two model cities-Oakland (an earthquake-prone area) and Miami/Dade County (a hurricane-prone area) which were constructed respectively with the assistance of two modeling firms. The paper then explores three programs for forging a meaningful public-private sector partner- ship: well-enforced building codes, insurance premium reductions linked with long-term loans, and lower deductibles on insurance policies tied to mitigation. We conclude by briefly examining four issues for future research on linking mitigation with insurance.
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    Invited Editorial: Risk Assessment Challenges at USDA (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
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    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00409.x
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    Use of Environmental Tobacco Smoke Constituents as Markers for Exposure (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: The 16-City Study analyzed for gas-phase environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) constituents (nicotine, 3-ethenyl pyridine [3-EP], and myosmine) and for particulate-phase constituents (respirable particulate matter [RSP], ultraviolet-absorbing particulate matter [UVPM], fluorescing particulate matter [FPM], scopoletin, and solanesol). In this second of three articles, we discussthe merits of each constituent as a marker for ETS and report pair-wise comparisons of the markers. Neither nicotine nor UVPM were good predictors for RSP. However, nicotine and UVPM were good qualitative predictors of each other. Nicotine was correlated with other gas-phase constituents. Comparisons between UVPM and other particulate-phase constituents were performed. Its relation with FPM was excellent, with UVPM approximately 11/2 times FPM. The correlation between UVPM and solanesol was good, but the relationship between the two was not linear. The relation between UVPM and scopoletin was not good, largely because of noise in the scopoletin measures around its limit of detection. We considered the relation between nicotine and saliva cotinine, a metabolite of nicotine. The two were highly correlated on the group level. That is, for each cell (smoking home and work, smoking home but nonsmoking work, and so forth), there was high correlation between average cotinine and 24-hour time-weighted average (TWA) nicotine concentrations. However, on the individual level, the correlations, although significant, were not biologically meaningful. A consideration of cotinine and nicotine or 3-EP on a subset of the study whoseonly exposure to ETS was exclusively at work or exclusively at home showed that home exposure was a more important source of ETS than work exposure.
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    Task Analysis for Industrial Work Process from Aspects of Human Reliability and System Safety (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: In the design, development, and manufacturing stage of industrial products, engineers usually focus on the problems caused by hardware or software, but pay less attention to problems caused by “human error,” which may significantly affect system reliability and safety. Although operating procedures are strictly followed, human error still may occur occasionally. Among the influencing factors, the inappropriate design of standard operation procedure (SOP) or standard assembly procedure (SAP) is an important and latent reason for unexpected results found during human operation. To reduce the error probability and error effects of these unexpected behaviors in the industrial work process, overall evaluation of SOP or SAP quality has become an essential task. The human error criticality analysis (HECA) method was developed to identify the potentially critical problems caused by human error in the human operation system. This method performs task analysis on the basis of operation procedure. For example, SOP, analyzes the human error probability (HEP) for each human operation step, and assesses its error effects to the whole system. The results of the analysis will show the interrelationship that exists between critical human tasks, critical human error modes, and human reliability information of the human operation system. To identify the robustness of the model, a case study of initiator assembly tasks was conducted. Results show that the HECA method is practicable in evaluating the operation procedure, and the information is valuable in identifying the means to upgrade human reliability and system safety for human tasks.
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    Risk Perceptions, General Environmental Beliefs, and Willingness to Address Climate Change (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: The research reported here examines the relationship between risk perceptions and willingness to address climate change. The data are a national sample of 1225 mail surveys that include measures of risk perceptions and knowledge tied to climate change, support for voluntary and government actions to address the problem, general environmental beliefs, and demographic variables. Risk perceptions matter in predicting behavioral intentions. Risk perceptions are not a surrogate for general environmental beliefs, but have their own power to account for behavioral intentions. There are four secondary conclusions. First, behavioral intentions regarding climate change are complex and intriguing. People are neither “nonbelievers” who will take no initiatives themselves and oppose all government efforts, nor are they “believers” who promise both to make personal efforts and to vote for every government proposal that promises to address climate change. Second, there are separate demographic sources for voluntary actions compared with voting intentions. Third, recognizing the causes of global warming is a powerful predictor of behavioral intentions independent from believing that climate change will happen and have bad consequences. Finally, the success of the risk perception variables to account for behavioral intentions should encourage greater attention to risk perceptions as independent variables. Risk perceptions and knowledge, however, share the stage with general environmental beliefs and demographic characteristics. Although related, risk perceptions, knowledge, and general environmental beliefs are somewhat independent predictors of behavioral intentions.
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    The Role of the Society for Risk Analysis in the Emerging Threats to Critical Infrastructures (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
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    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00396.x
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    Combining Probability Distributions From Experts in Risk Analysis (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: This paper concerns the combination of experts' probability distributions in risk analysis, discussing a variety of combination methods and attempting to highlight the important conceptual and practical issues to be considered in designing a combination process in practice. The role of experts is important because their judgments can provide valuable information, particularly in view of the limited availability of “hard data” regarding many important uncertainties in risk analysis. Because uncertainties are represented in terms of probability distributions in probabilistic risk analysis (PRA), we consider expert information in terms of probability distributions. The motivation for the use of multiple experts is simply the desire to obtain as much information as possible. Combining experts' probability distributions summarizes the accumulated information for risk analysts and decision-makers. Procedures for combining probability distributions are often compartmentalized as mathematical aggregation methods or behavioral approaches, and we discuss both categories. However, an overall aggregation process could involve both mathematical and behavioral aspects, and no single process is best in all circumstances. An understanding of the pros and cons of different methods and the key issues to consider is valuable in the design of acombination process for a specific PRA. The output, a ”combined probabilitydistribution,” can ideally be viewed as representing a summary of the current state of expert opinion regarding the uncertainty of interest.
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    Reliability Analysis for Hazardous Waste Treatment Processes (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: The reliability of a treatment process is addressed in terms of achieving a regulatory effluent concentration standard and the design safety factors associated with the treatment process. This methodology was then appliedto two aqueous hazardous waste treatment processes: packed tower aeration and activated sludge (aerobic) biological treatment. The designs achieving 95 percent reliability were compared with those designs based on conventional practice to determine their patterns of conservatism. Scoping-level treatment costs were also related to reliability levels for these treatment processes. The results indicate that the reliability levels for the physicalkhemical treatment process (packed tower aeration) based on the deterministic safety factors range from 80 percent to over 99 percent, whereas those for the biological treatment process range from near 0 percent to over 99 percent, depending on the compound evaluated. Increases in reliability per unit increase in treatment costs are most pronounced at lower reliability levels(less than about 80 percent) than at the higher reliability levels (greaterthan 90 percent, indicating a point of diminishing returns. Additional research focused on process parameters that presently contain large uncertainties may reduce those uncertainties, with attending increases in the reliability levels of the treatment processes.
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    Cancer Risk Estimation of Genotoxic Chemicals Based on Target Dose and a Multiplicative Model (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: A mechanistic model and associated procedures are proposed for cancer risk assessment of genotoxic chemicals. As previously shown for ionizing radiation, a linear multiplicative model was found to be compatible with published experimental data for ethylene oxide, acrylamide, and butadiene. The validity of this model was anticipated in view of the multiplicative interaction of mutation with inherited and acquired growth-promoting conditions. Concurrent analysis led to rejection of an additive model (i.e. the model commonly applied for cancer risk assessment). A reanalysis of data for radiogenic cancer in mouse, dog and man shows that the relative risk coefficient is approximately the same (0.4 to 0.5 percent per rad) for tumours induced in the three species.Doses in vivo, defined as the time-integrated concentrations of ultimate mutagens, expressed in millimol X kg-1 x h (mMh) are, like radiation doses given in Gy or rad, proportional to frequencies of potentially mutagenic events. The radiation dose equivalents of chemical doses are, calculated by multiplying chemical doses (in mMh) with the relative genotoxic potencies (in rad X mMh-1) determined in vitro. In this way the relative cancer incidence increments in rats and mice exposed to ethylene oxide were shown to be about 0.4 percent per rad-equivalent, in agreement with the data for radiogenic cancer.Our analyses suggest that values of the relative risk coefficients for genotoxic chemicals are independent of species and that relative cancer risks determined in animal tests apply also to humans. If reliable animal test data are not available, cancer risks may be estimated by the relative potency. In both cases exposure dose/target dose relationships, the latter via macromolecule adducts, should be determined.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00407.x
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    Response to Comments on “An Approach for Modeling Noncancer Dose Responses with an Emphasis on Uncertainty” and “A Probabilistic Framework for the Reference Dose (Probabilistic RfD)” (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00380.x
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    When and How Can You Specify a Probability Distribution When You Don't Know Much? II (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00385.x
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    A. Uncertainty and Variability (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00386.x
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    What Should Be the Implications of Uncertainty, Variability, and Inherent “Biases”/“Conservatism” for Risk Management Decision-Making? (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: This paper is a challenge from a pair of lifelong technical specialists in risk assessment for the risk-management community to better define social decision criteria for risk acceptance vs. risk control in relation to the issues of variability and uncertainty. To stimulate discussion, we offer a variety of “straw man” proposals about where we think Variability and uncertainty are likely to matter for different types of social policy considerations in the context of a few different kinds of decisions. In particular, we draw on recent presentations of uncertainty and variability data that have been offered by EPA in the context of the consideration of revised ambient air quality standards under the Clean Air Act.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00392.x
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    The Expected Value of Information and the Probability of Surprise (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Risk assessors attempting to use probabilistic approaches to describe uncertaintyoften find themselves in a data-sparse situation: available data are only partially relevant to the parameter of interest, so one needs to adjust empirical distributions, use explicit judgmental distributions, or collect new data. In determining whether ornot to collect additional data, whether by measurement or by elicitation of experts, it is useful to consider the expected value of the additional information. The expected value of information depends on the prior distribution used to represent current information; if the prior distribution is too narrow, in many risk-analytic cases the calculated expected value of information will be biased downward. The well-documentedtendency toward overconfidence, including the neglect of potential surprise, suggeststhis bias may be substantial. We examine the expected value of information, includingthe role of surprise, test for bias in estimating the expected value of information, and suggest procedures to guard against overconfidence and underestimation of the expected value of information when developing prior distributions and when combining distributions obtained from multiple experts. The methods are illustrated with applications to potential carcinogens in food, commercial energy demand, and global climate change.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00395.x
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    Residential Building Codes, Affordability, and Health Protection: A Risk-Tradeoff Approach (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Residential building codes intended to promote health and safety may produce unintended countervailing risks by adding to the cost of construction. Higher construction costs increase the price of new homes and may increase health and safety risks through “income” and “stock” effects. The income effect arises because households that purchase a new home have less income remaining for spending on other goods that contribute to health and safety. The stock effect arises because suppression of new-home construction leads to slower replacement of less safe housing units. These countervailing risks are not presently considered in code debates. We demonstrate the feasibility of estimating the approximate magnitude of countervailing risks by combining the income effect with three relatively well understood and significant home-health risks. We estimate that a code change that increases the nationwide cost of constructing and maintaining homes by $150 (0.1% of the average cost to build a single-family home) would induce offsetting risks yielding between 2 and 60 premature fatalities or, including morbidity effects, between 20 and 800 lost quality-adjusted life years (both discounted at 3%)each year the code provision remains in effect. To provide a net health benefit, the code change would need to reduce risk by at least this amount. Future research should refine these estimates, incorporate quantitative uncertainty analysis, and apply a full risk-tradeoff approach to real-world casestudies of proposed code changes.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb01126.x
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    Dose Response Models For Infectious Gastroenteritis (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: When pathogenic microorganisms enter the human body via ingestion with food or drinking water, they encounter a system of barriers mounted by the host. In order to reach parts of the intestinal tract that are suitable forgrowth and attachment, each of the bamers must be overcome successfully. The present view on infection states that at least one of the ingested pathogens must survive to start colonization. This is the basis for dose responsemodels, used for quantitative risk assessment. In this paper, the usefulness of the Beta Poisson model for multiple barriers is corroborated. Infection is associated with the presence of elevated numbers of reproducing pathogens in the intestinal tract. This does not necessarily imply illness symptoms: when intestinal microorganisms engage in damaging activities, this may lead to illness symptoms. At the same time, these activities probably elicit defensive measures from the host, promoting the removal of pathogens and terminating infection. The duration of the period of colonization reflects the balance between the colonization potential of pathogens and the strength of host defenses. Starting from the assumption that during infection the host has a certain hazard of becoming ill, a simple dose response relation for acute gastroenteritis is developed. With the use of literature data from volunteer experiments, we show that examples can be found for three possible alternatives: an increase in the probability of illness with increasingdose, a decrease with higher doses, and a probability of illness (given infection) independent of the ingested dose. These alternatives may reflect different modes of interaction between pathogens and host.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb01143.x
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    Development of a Performance Assessment Capability in the Waste Management Programs of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) staff has developed a performance assessment capability to address three programmatic areas in nuclear waste management: high-level waste, low-level waste, and decommissioning of licensed facilities (license termination). The NRC capability consists of (1) methodologies for performance assessment; (2) models and computer codes for estimating system performance; (3) regulatory guidance in various forms, such as regulations, Branch Technical Positions, and Standard Review Plans; and (4) a technical staff experienced in executing and evaluating performance assessments for a variety of waste systems. Although the tools and techniques are refined for each programmatic area, general approaches and similar issues are encountered in all areas.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00448.x
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    Total System Performance Assessment for Waste Disposal Using a Logic Tree Approach (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) has sponsored the development of a model to assess the long-term, overall “performance” of the candidate spent fuel and high-level radioactive waste (HLW) disposal facility at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The model simulates the processes that lead to HLW container corrosion, HLW mobilization from the spent fuel, and transport by groundwater, and contaminated groundwater usage by future hypothetical individuals leading to radiation doses to those individuals. The model must incorporate a multitude of complex, coupled processes across a variety of technical disciplines. Furthermore, because of the very long time frames involved in the modeling effort (〉104 years), the relative lack of directly applicable data, and many uncertainties and variabilities in those data, a probabilistic approach to model development was necessary. The developers of the model chose a logic tree approach to represent uncertainties in both conceptual models and model parameter values. The developers felt the logic tree approach was the most appropriate. This paper discusses the value and use of logic trees applied to assessing the uncertainties in HLW disposal, the components of the model, and a few of the results of that model. The paper concludes with a comparison of logic trees and Monte Carlo approaches.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00451.x
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    Performance Assessments of Nuclear Waste Repositories: A Dialogue on Their Value and Limitations (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Performance Assessment (PA) is the use of mathematical models to simulate the long-term behavior of engineered and geologic barriers in a nuclear waste repository; methods of uncertainty analysis are used to assess effects of parametric and conceptual uncertainties associated with the model system upon the uncertainty in outcomes of the simulation. PA is required by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency as part of its certification process for geologic repositories for nuclear waste. This paper is a dialogue to explore the value and limitations of PA. Two “skeptics” acknowledge the utility of PA in organizing the scientific investigations that are necessary for confident siting and licensing of a repository; however, they maintain that the PA process, at least as it is currently implemented, is an essentially unscientific process with shortcomings that may provide results of limited use in evaluating actual effects on public health and safety. Conceptual uncertainties in a PA analysis can be so great that results can be confidently applied only over short time ranges, the antithesis of the purpose behind long-term, geologic disposal. Two “proponents” of PA agree that performance assessment is unscientific, but only in the sense that PA is an engineering analysis that uses existing scientific knowledge to support public policy decisions, rather than an investigation intended to increase fundamental knowledge of nature; PA has different goals and constraints than a typical scientific study. The “proponents” describe an ideal, sixstep process for conducting generalized PA, here called probabilistic systems analysis (PSA); they note that virtually all scientific content of a PA is introduced during the model-building steps of a PSA, they contend that a PA based on simple but scientifically acceptable mathematical models can provide useful and objective input to regulatory decision makers. The value of the results of any PA must lie between these two views and will depend on the level of knowledge of the site, the degree to which models capture actual physical and chemical processes, the time over which extrapolations are made, and the proper evaluation of health risks attending implementation of the repository. The challenge is in evaluating whether the quality of the PA matches the needs of decision makers charged with protecting the health and safety of the public.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00452.x
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