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  • Climate change
  • American Geophysical Union  (18)
  • American Meteorological Society  (11)
  • Springer  (3)
  • 2020-2023  (15)
  • 2010-2014  (15)
  • 1985-1989  (2)
  • 1
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    Carbon accumulation, flux, and fate in Stordalen Mire, a permafrost peatland in transition (2022)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 36(1), (2022): e2021GB007113, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GB007113.
    Description: Stordalen Mire is a peatland in the discontinuous permafrost zone in arctic Sweden that exhibits a habitat gradient from permafrost palsa, to Sphagnum bog underlain by permafrost, to Eriophorum-dominated fully thawed fen. We used three independent approaches to evaluate the annual, multi-decadal, and millennial apparent carbon accumulation rates (aCAR) across this gradient: seven years of direct semi-continuous measurement of CO2 and CH4 exchange, and 21 core profiles for 210Pb and 14C peat dating. Year-round chamber measurements indicated net carbon balance of −13 ± 8, −49 ± 15, and −91 ± 43 g C m−2 y−1 for the years 2012–2018 in palsa, bog, and fen, respectively. Methane emission offset 2%, 7%, and 17% of the CO2 uptake rate across this gradient. Recent aCAR indicates higher C accumulation rates in surface peats in the palsa and bog compared to current CO2 fluxes, but these assessments are more similar in the fen. aCAR increased from low millennial-scale levels (17–29 g C m−2 y−1) to moderate aCAR of the past century (72–81 g C m−2 y−1) to higher recent aCAR of 90–147 g C m−2 y−1. Recent permafrost collapse, greater inundation and vegetation response has made the landscape a stronger CO2 sink, but this CO2 sink is increasingly offset by rising CH4 emissions, dominated by modern carbon as determined by 14C. The higher CH4 emissions result in higher net CO2-equivalent emissions, indicating that radiative forcing of this mire and similar permafrost ecosystems will exert a warming influence on future climate.
    Description: We would like to acknowledge the following funding in support of this project: Swedish Research Council (Vetenskapsrådet, VR) grants (NT 2007-4547 and NT 2013-5562 to P. Crill), U.S. Department of Energy grants (DE-SC0004632 and DE-SC0010580 to V. Rich and S. Saleska), and U.S. National Science Foundation MacroSystems Biology grant (NSF EF #1241037, PI Varner). This work was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research under the Genomic Science program. We also acknowledge funding from the National Science Foundation for the EMERGE Biology Integration Institute, NSF Award #2022070.
    Description: 2022-07-03
    Keywords: Peat ; Carbon cycling ; Permafrost ; Carbon-14 ; Lead-210 ; Climate change
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 2
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    Summer surface CO2 dynamics on the Bering Sea and eastern Chukchi Sea shelves from 1989 to 2019 (2022)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 127(1), (2022): e2021JC017424, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JC017424.
    Description: By compiling boreal summer (June to October) CO2 measurements from 1989 to 2019 on the Bering and eastern Chukchi Sea shelves, we find that the study areas act as a CO2 sink except when impacted by river runoff and wind-driven upwelling. The CO2 system in this area is seasonally dominated by the biological pump especially in the northern Bering Sea and near Hanna Shoal, while wind-driven upwelling of CO2-rich bottom water can cause episodic outgassing. Seasonal surface ΔfCO2 (oceanic fCO2 – air fCO2) is dominantly driven by temperature only during periods of weak CO2 outgassing in shallow nearshore areas. However, after comparing the mean summer ΔfCO2 during the periods of 1989–2013 and 2014–2019, we suggest that temperature does drive long-term, multi-decadal patterns in ΔfCO2. In the northern Chukchi Sea, rapid warming concurrent with reduced seasonal sea-ice persistence caused the regional summer CO2 sink to decrease. By contrast, increasing primary productivity caused the regional summer CO2 sink on the Bering Sea shelf to increase over time. While additional time series are needed to confirm the seasonal and annual trajectory of CO2 changes and ocean acidification in these dynamic and spatially complex ecosystems, this study provides a meaningful mechanistic analysis of recent changes in inorganic carbonate chemistry. As high-resolution time series of inorganic carbonate parameters lengthen and short-term variations are better constrained in the coming decades, we will have stronger confidence in assessing the mechanisms contributing to long-term changes in the source/sink status of regional sub-Arctic seas.
    Description: We gratefully acknowledge the support of the funding agencies that supported this analysis, including the New Sustained Observations for Arctic Research project and the DBO-NCIS project (NA14OAR4320158, NA19OAR4320074) from the NOAA Arctic Research Program.
    Description: 2022-06-17
    Keywords: Pacific Arctic region ; Sea-air CO2 flux ; Ocean acidification ; Climate change ; Sea-ice loss ; Surface ocean CO2 Atlas
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  • 3
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    A new structure for the Sea Ice Essential Climate variables of the Global Climate Observing System (2022)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-12-01
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 103(6), (2022): E1502-E1521, https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-21-0227.1.
    Description: Climate observations inform about the past and present state of the climate system. They underpin climate science, feed into policies for adaptation and mitigation, and increase awareness of the impacts of climate change. The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), a body of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), assesses the maturity of the required observing system and gives guidance for its development. The Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) are central to GCOS, and the global community must monitor them with the highest standards in the form of Climate Data Records (CDR). Today, a single ECV—the sea ice ECV—encapsulates all aspects of the sea ice environment. In the early 1990s it was a single variable (sea ice concentration) but is today an umbrella for four variables (adding thickness, edge/extent, and drift). In this contribution, we argue that GCOS should from now on consider a set of seven ECVs (sea ice concentration, thickness, snow depth, surface temperature, surface albedo, age, and drift). These seven ECVs are critical and cost effective to monitor with existing satellite Earth observation capability. We advise against placing these new variables under the umbrella of the single sea ice ECV. To start a set of distinct ECVs is indeed critical to avoid adding to the suboptimal situation we experience today and to reconcile the sea ice variables with the practice in other ECV domains.
    Description: PH’s contribution was funded under the Australian Government’s Antarctic Science Collaboration Initiative program, and contributes to Project 6 of the Australian Antarctic Program Partnership (ASCI000002). PH acknowledges support through the Australian Antarctic Science Projects 4496 and 4506, and the International Space Science Institute (Bern, Switzerland) project #405.
    Description: 2022-12-01
    Keywords: Sea ice ; Climate change ; Climatology ; Climate records
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  • 4
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    Increasing inhomogeneity of the global ocean (2022)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-12-23
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 49(12), (2022): e2021GL097598, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL097598.
    Description: The ocean is inhomogeneous in hydrographic properties with diverse water masses. Yet, how this inhomogeneity has evolved in a rapidly changing climate has not been investigated. Using multiple observational and reanalysis datasets, we show that the spatial standard deviation (SSD) of the global ocean has increased by 1.4 ± 0.1% in temperature and 1.5 ± 0.1% in salinity since 1960. A newly defined thermohaline inhomogeneity index, a holistic measure of both temperature and salinity changes, has increased by 2.4 ± 0.1%. Climate model simulations suggest that the observed ocean inhomogeneity increase is dominated by anthropogenic forcing and projected to accelerate by 200%–300% during 2015–2100. Geographically, the rapid upper-ocean warming at mid-to-low latitudes dominates the temperature inhomogeneity increase, while the increasing salinity inhomogeneity is mainly due to the amplified salinity contrast between the subtropical and subpolar latitudes.
    Description: This work is supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (grant XDB42000000 and XDB40000000), the National Key R&D Program of China (2017YFA0603200), and the Shandong Provincial Natural Science Foundation (ZR2020JQ17), and the U.S. National Science Foundation Physical Oceanography Program (OCE- 2048336).
    Description: 2022-12-23
    Keywords: Global ocean ; Temperature ; Salinity ; Spatial inhomogeneity ; Climate change
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  • 5
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    The climatological rise in winter temperature- and dewpoint-based thaw events and their impact on snow depth on Mount Washington, New Hampshire (2022)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-06-06
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2021. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 60(9), (2021): 1361–1370, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-20-0254.1.
    Description: We analyze how winter thaw events (TE; T 〉 0°C) are changing on the summit of Mount Washington, New Hampshire, using three metrics: the number of TE, number of thaw hours, and number of thaw degree-hours for temperature and dewpoint for winters from 1935/36 to 2019/20. The impact of temperature-only TE and dewpoint TE on snow depth are compared to quantify the different impacts of sensible-only heating and sensible-and-latent heating, respectively. Results reveal that temperature and dewpoint TE for all metrics increased at a statistically significant rate (p 〈 0.05) over the full time periods studied for temperature (1935/36–2019/20) and dewpoint (1939/40–2019/20). Notably, around 2000/01, the positive trends increased for most variables, including dewpoint-thaw degree-hours that increased by 82.11 degree-hours decade−1 during 2000–20, which is approximately 5 times as faster as the 1939–2020 rate of 17.70 degree-hours decade−1. Furthermore, a clear upward shift occurred around 1990 in the lowest winter values of thaw hours and thaw degree-hours—winters now have a higher baseline amount of thaw than before 1990. Snow-depth loss during dewpoint TE (0.36 cm h−1) occurred more than 2 times as fast as temperature-only TE (0.14 cm h−1). With winters projected to warm throughout the twenty-first century in the northeastern United States, it is expected that the trends in winter thaw events, and the sensible and latent energy that they bring, will continue to rise and lead to more frequent winter flooding, fewer days of good quality snow for winter recreation, and changes in ecosystem function.
    Keywords: Atmosphere ; Snowmelt/icemelt ; Snowpack ; Winter/cool season ; Climate change ; Humidity ; Latent heating/cooling ; Snow cover ; Temperature
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  • 6
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    Estimating the impact of seep methane oxidation on ocean pH and dissolved inorganic radiocarbon along the US Mid-Atlantic Bight (2021)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-10-27
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2021. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 126(1), (2021): e2019JG005621, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JG005621.
    Description: Ongoing ocean warming can release methane (CH4) currently stored in ocean sediments as free gas and gas hydrates. Once dissolved in ocean waters, this CH4 can be oxidized to carbon dioxide (CO2). While it has been hypothesized that the CO2 produced from aerobic CH4 oxidation could enhance ocean acidification, a previous study conducted in Hudson Canyon shows that CH4 oxidation has a small short‐term influence on ocean pH and dissolved inorganic radiocarbon. Here we expand upon that investigation to assess the impact of widespread CH4 seepage on CO2 chemistry and possible accumulation of this carbon injection along 234 km of the U.S. Mid‐Atlantic Bight. Consistent with the estimates from Hudson Canyon, we demonstrate that a small fraction of ancient CH4‐derived carbon is being assimilated into the dissolved inorganic radiocarbon (mean fraction of 0.5 ± 0.4%). The areas with the highest fractions of ancient carbon coincide with elevated CH4 concentration and active gas seepage. This suggests that aerobic CH4 oxidation has a greater influence on the dissolved inorganic pool in areas where CH4 concentrations are locally elevated, instead of displaying a cumulative effect downcurrent from widespread groupings of CH4 seeps. A first‐order approximation of the input rate of ancient‐derived dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) into the waters overlying the northern U.S. Mid‐Atlantic Bight further suggests that oxidation of ancient CH4‐derived carbon is not negligible on the global scale and could contribute to deepwater acidification over longer time scales.
    Description: This study was sponsored by U.S. Department of Energy (DE‐FE0028980, awarded to J. D. K; DE‐FE0026195 interagency agreement with C. D. R.). We thank the crew of the R/V Hugh R. Sharp for their support, G. Hatcher, J. Borden, and M. Martini of the USGS for assistance with the LADCP, and Zach Bunnell, Lillian Henderson, and Allison Laubach for additional support at sea.
    Description: 2021-06-23
    Keywords: Radiocarbon ; Methane ; DIC ; Ocean acidification ; Climate change ; U.S Mid-Atlantic Bight
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  • 7
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    Deep North Atlantic last glacial maximum salinity reconstruction (2021)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-10-19
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2021. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology 36(7), (2021): e2020PA004088, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020PA004088.
    Description: We reconstruct deep water-mass salinities and spatial distributions in the western North Atlantic during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 19–26 ka), a period when atmospheric CO2 was significantly lower than it is today. A reversal in the LGM Atlantic meridional bottom water salinity gradient has been hypothesized for several LGM water-mass reconstructions. Such a reversal has the potential to influence climate, ocean circulation, and atmospheric CO2 by increasing the thermal energy and carbon storage capacity of the deep ocean. To test this hypothesis, we reconstructed LGM bottom water salinity based on sedimentary porewater chloride profiles in a north-south transect of piston cores collected from the deep western North Atlantic. LGM bottom water salinity in the deep western North Atlantic determined by the density-based method is 3.41–3.99 ± 0.15% higher than modern values at these sites. This increase is consistent with: (a) the 3.6% global average salinity change expected from eustatic sea level rise, (b) a northward expansion of southern sourced deep water, (c) shoaling of northern sourced deep water, and (d) a reversal of the Atlantic's north-south deep water salinity gradient during the LGM.
    Description: This work was supported by the US National Science Foundation (grant numbers 1433150 and 1537485).
    Description: 2021-10-24
    Keywords: Carbon cycle ; Climate change ; Deep water ; Glaciation ; Meridional overturning circulation ; Paleosalinity ; Porewater
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  • 8
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    Heterogeneous Changes to Wetlands in the Canadian Prairies Under Future Climate (2021)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-10-20
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2021. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Water Resources Research 57(7), (2021): e2020WR028727, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR028727.
    Description: Numerous wetlands in the prairies of Canada provide important ecosystem services, yet are threatened by climate and land-use changes. Understanding the impacts of climate change on prairie wetlands is critical to effective conservation planning. In this study, we construct a wetland model with surface water balance and ecoregions to project future distribution of wetlands. The climatic conditions downscaled from the Weather Research and Forecasting model were used to drive the Noah-MP land surface model to obtain surface water balance. The climate change perturbation is derived from an ensemble of general circulation models using the pseudo global warming method, under the RCP8.5 emission scenario by the end of 21st century. The results show that climate change impacts on wetland extent are spatiotemporally heterogenous. Future wetter climate in the western Prairies will favor increased wetland abundance in both spring and summer. In the eastern Prairies, particularly in the mixed grassland and mid-boreal upland, wetland areas will increase in spring but experience enhanced declines in summer due to strong evapotranspiration. When these effects of climate change are considered in light of historical drainage, they suggest a need for diverse conservation and restoration strategies. For the mixed grassland in the western Canadian Prairies, wetland restoration will be favorable, while the highly drained eastern Prairies will be challenged by the intensified hydrological cycle. The outcomes of this study will be useful to conservation agencies to ensure that current investments will continue to provide good conservation returns in the future.
    Description: Z. Zhang was funded by a Mitacs Accelerate Fellowship funded by Ducks Unlimited Canada's Institute for Wetland and Waterfowl Research. Z. Zhang, Z. Li, and Y. Li acknowledge the financial support from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) Discovery Grant, and Global Water Futures Program, Canada First Research Excellence Fund. This project was supported by grants from Wildlife Habitat Canada, Bass Pro Shops Cabela’s Outdoor Fund, and the Alberta NAWMP Partnership.
    Description: 2021-12-21
    Keywords: Wetland ; Hydrology ; Climate change ; Prairie Pothole Region ; Waterfowl ; Conservation
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  • 9
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    Cancelation of deglacial thermosteric sea level rise by a barosteric effect (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 50(12),(2020): 3623-3639, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-20-0173.1
    Description: Sea level rise over the last deglaciation is dominated by the mass of freshwater added to the oceans by the melting of the great ice sheets. While the steric effect of changing seawater density is secondary over the last 20 000 years, processes connected to deglacial warming, the redistribution of salt, and the pressure load of meltwater all influence sea level rise by more than a meter. Here we develop a diagnostic for steric effects that is valid when oceanic mass is changing. This diagnostic accounts for seawater compression due to the added overlying pressure of glacial meltwater, which is here defined to be a barosteric effect. Analysis of three-dimensional global seawater reconstructions of the last deglaciation indicates that thermosteric height change (1.0–1.5 m) is counteracted by barosteric (−1.9 m) and halosteric (from −0.4 to 0.0 m) effects. The total deglacial steric effect from −0.7 to −1.1 m has the opposite sign of analyses that assume that thermosteric expansion is dominant. Despite the vertical oceanic structure not being well constrained during the Last Glacial Maximum, net seawater contraction appears robust as it occurs in four reconstructions that were produced using different paleoceanographic datasets. Calculations that do not account for changes in ocean pressure give the misleading impression that steric effects enhanced deglacial sea level rise.
    Description: GG is supported by NSF OCE-1536380 and OCE-1760878.
    Description: 2021-06-01
    Keywords: Abyssal circulation ; Sea level ; Water masses/storage ; Climate change ; Glaciation ; Water budget/balance
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  • 10
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    Paleoclimate constraints on the spatiotemporal character of past and future droughts (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 33(22), (2020): 9883-9903, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0004.1.
    Description: Machine-learning-based methods that identify drought in three-dimensional space–time are applied to climate model simulations and tree-ring-based reconstructions of hydroclimate over the Northern Hemisphere extratropics for the past 1000 years, as well as twenty-first-century projections. Analyzing reconstructed and simulated drought in this context provides a paleoclimate constraint on the spatiotemporal characteristics of simulated droughts. Climate models project that there will be large increases in the persistence and severity of droughts over the coming century, but with little change in their spatial extent. Nevertheless, climate models exhibit biases in the spatiotemporal characteristics of persistent and severe droughts over parts of the Northern Hemisphere. We use the paleoclimate record and results from a linear inverse modeling-based framework to conclude that climate models underestimate the range of potential future hydroclimate states. Complicating this picture, however, are divergent changes in the characteristics of persistent and severe droughts when quantified using different hydroclimate metrics. Collectively our results imply that these divergent responses and the aforementioned biases must be better understood if we are to increase confidence in future hydroclimate projections. Importantly, the novel framework presented herein can be applied to other climate features to robustly describe their spatiotemporal characteristics and provide constraints on future changes to those characteristics.
    Description: This material is based upon work supported by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is a major facility sponsored by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement 1852977. JAF was also supported by the Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA) component of the Earth and Environmental System Modeling Program of the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Biological & Environmental Research (BER) via National Science Foundation IA 1844590. JS was supported in part by the U.S. National Science Foundation through Grants AGS-1602920 and AGS-1805490, and by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration by Grant NA20OAR4310425. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups (listed in Table 1) for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portal. We thank the editor and two reviewers for comments that greatly improved the quality of this manuscript. This is SOEST Publication No. 11116 and LDEO Publication No. 8450.
    Description: 2021-04-15
    Keywords: Drought ; Climate change ; Paleoclimate ; Climate models ; Climate variability ; Other artificial intelligence/machine learning
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  • 11
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    Importance of Orography for Greenland cloud and melt response to atmospheric blocking (2020)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Hahn, L. C., Storelvmo, T., Hofer, S., Parfitt, R., & Ummenhofer, C. C. Importance of Orography for Greenland cloud and melt response to atmospheric blocking. Journal of Climate, 33(10), (2020): 4187-4206, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0527.1.
    Description: More frequent high pressure conditions associated with atmospheric blocking episodes over Greenland in recent decades have been suggested to enhance melt through large-scale subsidence and cloud dissipation, which allows more solar radiation to reach the ice sheet surface. Here we investigate mechanisms linking high pressure circulation anomalies to Greenland cloud changes and resulting cloud radiative effects, with a focus on the previously neglected role of topography. Using reanalysis and satellite data in addition to a regional climate model, we show that anticyclonic circulation anomalies over Greenland during recent extreme blocking summers produce cloud changes dependent on orographic lift and descent. The resulting increased cloud cover over northern Greenland promotes surface longwave warming, while reduced cloud cover in southern and marginal Greenland favors surface shortwave warming. Comparison with an idealized model simulation with flattened topography reveals that orographic effects were necessary to produce area-averaged decreasing cloud cover since the mid-1990s and the extreme melt observed in the summer of 2012. This demonstrates a key role for Greenland topography in mediating the cloud and melt response to large-scale circulation variability. These results suggest that future melt will depend on the pattern of circulation anomalies as well as the shape of the Greenland Ice Sheet.
    Description: This research was supported by the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Summer Student Fellow program, by the U.S. National Science Foundation under AGS-1355339 to C.C.U., and by the European Research Council through Grant 758005.
    Keywords: Ice sheets ; Blocking ; Cloud cover ; Topographic effects ; Climate change ; Climate variability
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  • 12
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    Analysis of the Beaufort Gyre freshwater content in 2003-2018 (2020)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Proshutinsky, A., Krishfield, R., Toole, J. M., Timmermans, M-L., Williams, W. J., Zimmermann, S., Yamamoto-Kawai, M., Armitage, T. W. K., Dukhovskoy, D., Golubeva, E., Manucharyan, G. E., Platov, G., Watanabe, E., Kikuchi, T., Nishino, S., Itoh, M., Kang, S-H., Cho, K-H., Tateyama, K., & Zhao, J. Analysis of the Beaufort Gyre freshwater content in 2003-2018. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans, 124(12), (2019): 9658-9689, doi:10.1029/2019JC015281.
    Description: Hydrographic data collected from research cruises, bottom‐anchored moorings, drifting Ice‐Tethered Profilers, and satellite altimetry in the Beaufort Gyre region of the Arctic Ocean document an increase of more than 6,400 km3 of liquid freshwater content from 2003 to 2018: a 40% growth relative to the climatology of the 1970s. This fresh water accumulation is shown to result from persistent anticyclonic atmospheric wind forcing (1997–2018) accompanied by sea ice melt, a wind‐forced redirection of Mackenzie River discharge from predominantly eastward to westward flow, and a contribution of low salinity waters of Pacific Ocean origin via Bering Strait. Despite significant uncertainties in the different observations, this study has demonstrated the synergistic value of having multiple diverse datasets to obtain a more comprehensive understanding of Beaufort Gyre freshwater content variability. For example, Beaufort Gyre Observational System (BGOS) surveys clearly show the interannual increase in freshwater content, but without satellite or Ice‐Tethered Profiler measurements, it is not possible to resolve the seasonal cycle of freshwater content, which in fact is larger than the year‐to‐year variability, or the more subtle interannual variations.
    Description: National Science Foundation. Grant Numbers: PLR‐1302884,OPP‐1719280, and OPP‐1845877, PLR‐1303644 and OPP‐1756100, OPP‐1756100, PLR‐1303644, OPP‐1845877, OPP‐1719280, PLR‐1302884 Key Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China. Grant Number: 41330960 Global Change Research Program of China. Grant Number: 2015CB953900 Ministry of Education, Korea Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) /Earth Observation Research Center (EORC) Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology of Japan (MEXT) Stanback Postdoctoral Fellowship Russian Foundation for Basic Research. Grant Number: 17‐05‐00382 Presidium of Russian Academy of Sciences HYCOM NOPP. Grant Number: N00014‐15‐1‐2594 DOE. Grant Number: DE‐SC0014378 National Aeronautics and Space Administration Tokyo University of Marine Science and Technology Department of Fisheries and Oceans Canada Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
    Keywords: Beaufort Gyre ; Arctic Ocean ; Freshwater balance ; Circulation ; Modeling ; Climate change
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  • 13
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    Heterotrophy of oceanic particulate organic matter elevates net ecosystem calcification (2020)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2019. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 46(16), (2019): 9851-9860, doi:10.1029/2019GL083726.
    Description: Coral reef calcification is expected to decline due to climate change stressors such as ocean acidification and warming. Projections of future coral reef health are based on our understanding of the environmental drivers that affect calcification and dissolution. One such driver that may impact coral reef health is heterotrophy of oceanic‐sourced particulate organic matter, but its link to calcification has not been directly investigated in the field. In this study, we estimated net ecosystem calcification and oceanic particulate organic carbon (POCoc) uptake across the Kāne'ohe Bay barrier reef in Hawai'i. We show that higher rates of POCoc uptake correspond to greater net ecosystem calcification rates, even under low aragonite saturation states (Ωar). Hence, reductions in offshore productivity may negatively impact coral reefs by decreasing the food supply required to sustain calcification. Alternatively, coral reefs that receive ample inputs of POCoc may maintain higher calcification rates, despite a global decline in Ωar.
    Description: Data needed for calculations are available in the supporting information. Additional data can be provided upon request directly from the corresponding author or accessed by links provided in the supporting information. The authors declare no competing financial interests. We thank Texas Sea Grant for providing partial funding for this project to A. Kealoha through the Grants‐In‐Aid of Graduate Research Program. We also thank the NOAA Nancy Foster Scholarship for PhD program funding to A. Kealoha and Texas A&M University for funds awarded to Shamberger that supported this work. This research was also supported by funding from National Science Foundation Grant OCE‐1538628 to Rappé. The Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology (particularly the Rappé Lab and Jason Jones), NOAA's Coral Reef Ecosystem Program, Connie Previti, Serena Smith, and Chris Maupin were instrumental in sample collection and data analysis.
    Description: 2020-02-22
    Keywords: Coral reefs ; Ocean acidification ; Climate change ; Heterotrophy
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    Intergyre salt transport in the climate warming response (2020)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 50(1), (2020): 255-268, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-19-0166.1.
    Description: Regional connectivity is important to the global climate salinity response, particularly because salinity anomalies do not have a damping feedback with atmospheric freshwater fluxes and may therefore be advected over long distances by ocean circulation, resulting in nonlocal influences. Climate model intercomparison experiments such as CMIP5 exhibit large uncertainty in some aspects of the salinity response, hypothesized here to be a result of ocean dynamics. We use two types of Lagrangian particle tracking experiments to investigate pathways of exchange for salinity anomalies. The first uses forward trajectories to estimate average transport time scales between water cycle regimes. The second uses reverse trajectories and a freshwater accumulation method to quantitatively identify remote influences in the salinity response. Additionally, we compare velocity fields with both resolved and parameterized eddies to understand the impact of eddy stirring on intergyre exchange. These experiments show that surface anomalies are readily exchanged within the ocean gyres by the mean circulation, but intergyre exchange is slower and largely eddy driven. These dynamics are used to analyze the North Atlantic salinity response to climate warming and water cycle intensification, where the system is broadly forced with fresh surface anomalies in the subpolar gyre and salty surface anomalies in the subtropical gyres. Under these competing forcings, strong intergyre eddy fluxes carry anomalously salty subtropical water into the subpolar gyre which balances out much of the local freshwater input.
    Description: We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups (listed in Table 1 of this paper) for producing and making available their model output. We also thank the creators of the SODA and ECCO reanalysis products. This work was supported by NASA Headquarters under the NASA Earth and Space Science Fellowship Program Award 80NSSC17K0372, and by National Science Foundation Award OCE-1433132. The SODA outputs used here can be accessed at http://www.atmos.umd.edu/~ocean/, and the ECCO outputs at https://ecco.jpl.nasa.gov/. Data from the CMIP5 ensemble is available at https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/esgf-llnl/. The particle tracking code used for these experiments can be found at https://github.com/slevang/particle-tracking.
    Description: 2020-07-20
    Keywords: North Atlantic Ocean ; Eddies ; Hydrologic cycle ; Lagrangian circulation/transport ; Transport ; Climate change
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    An observational estimate of the direct response of the cold-season atmospheric circulation to the Arctic Sea ice loss (2020)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 33(9), (2020): 3863-3882, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0687.1.
    Description: The direct response of the cold-season atmospheric circulation to the Arctic sea ice loss is estimated from observed sea ice concentration (SIC) and an atmospheric reanalysis, assuming that the atmospheric response to the long-term sea ice loss is the same as that to interannual pan-Arctic SIC fluctuations with identical spatial patterns. No large-scale relationship with previous interannual SIC fluctuations is found in October and November, but a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)/Arctic Oscillation follows the pan-Arctic SIC fluctuations from December to March. The signal is field significant in the stratosphere in December, and in the troposphere and tropopause thereafter. However, multiple regressions indicate that the stratospheric December signal is largely due to concomitant Siberian snow-cover anomalies. On the other hand, the tropospheric January–March NAO signals can be unambiguously attributed to SIC variability, with an Iceland high approaching 45 m at 500 hPa, a 2°C surface air warming in northeastern Canada, and a modulation of blocking activity in the North Atlantic sector. In March, a 1°C northern Europe cooling is also attributed to SIC. An SIC impact on the warm Arctic–cold Eurasia pattern is only found in February in relation to January SIC. Extrapolating the most robust results suggests that, in the absence of other forcings, the SIC loss between 1979 and 2016 would have induced a 2°–3°C decade−1 winter warming in northeastern North America and a 40–60 m decade−1 increase in the height of the Iceland high, if linearity and perpetual winter conditions could be assumed.
    Description: This research was supported by the Blue-Action project (European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program, Grant 727852) and by the National Science Foundation (OPP 1736738).
    Description: 2020-10-06
    Keywords: Atmosphere-ocean interaction ; Climate change ; Climate variability ; Ice loss/growth
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    On the attribution of a single event to climate change (2014)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2014. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 27 (2014): 8297–8301, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00399.1.
    Description: There is growing interest in assessing the role of climate change in observed extreme weather events. Recent work in this area has focused on estimating a measure called attributable risk. A statistical formulation of this problem is described and used to construct a confidence interval for attributable risk. The resulting confidence is shown to be surprisingly wide even in the case where the event of interest is unprecedented in the historical record.
    Description: GH acknowledges funding from the Federal Ministry for Education and Research. MA acknowledges partial support from the Giannini Foundation.
    Description: 2015-05-15
    Keywords: Climate change ; Statistics
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    Cold tongue and warm pool ENSO events in CMIP5 : mean state and future projections (2014)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2014. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 27 (2014): 2861–2885, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00437.1.
    Description: The representation of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) under historical forcing and future projections is analyzed in 34 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Most models realistically simulate the observed intensity and location of maximum sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies during ENSO events. However, there exist systematic biases in the westward extent of ENSO-related SST anomalies, driven by unrealistic westward displacement and enhancement of the equatorial wind stress in the western Pacific. Almost all CMIP5 models capture the observed asymmetry in magnitude between the warm and cold events (i.e., El Niños are stronger than La Niñas) and between the two types of El Niños: that is, cold tongue (CT) El Niños are stronger than warm pool (WP) El Niños. However, most models fail to reproduce the asymmetry between the two types of La Niñas, with CT stronger than WP events, which is opposite to observations. Most models capture the observed peak in ENSO amplitude around December; however, the seasonal evolution of ENSO has a large range of behavior across the models. The CMIP5 models generally reproduce the duration of CT El Niños but have biases in the evolution of the other types of events. The evolution of WP El Niños suggests that the decay of this event occurs through heat content discharge in the models rather than the advection of SST via anomalous zonal currents, as seems to occur in observations. No consistent changes are seen across the models in the location and magnitude of maximum SST anomalies, frequency, or temporal evolution of these events in a warmer world.
    Description: 2014-10-15
    Keywords: Atmosphere-ocean interaction ; Climate change ; Climate variability ; ENSO ; Climate models ; Model evaluation/performance
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    Twentieth-century oceanic carbon uptake and storage in CESM1(BGC) (2013)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2013]. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 26 (2013): 6775–6800, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00184.1.
    Description: Ocean carbon uptake and storage simulated by the Community Earth System Model, version 1–Biogeochemistry [CESM1(BGC)], is described and compared to observations. Fully coupled and ocean-ice configurations are examined; both capture many aspects of the spatial structure and seasonality of surface carbon fields. Nearly ubiquitous negative biases in surface alkalinity result from the prescribed carbonate dissolution profile. The modeled sea–air CO2 fluxes match observationally based estimates over much of the ocean; significant deviations appear in the Southern Ocean. Surface ocean pCO2 is biased high in the subantarctic and low in the sea ice zone. Formation of the water masses dominating anthropogenic CO2 (Cant) uptake in the Southern Hemisphere is weak in the model, leading to significant negative biases in Cant and chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) storage at intermediate depths. Column inventories of Cant appear too high, by contrast, in the North Atlantic. In spite of the positive bias, this marks an improvement over prior versions of the model, which underestimated North Atlantic uptake. The change in behavior is attributable to a new parameterization of density-driven overflows. CESM1(BGC) provides a relatively robust representation of the ocean–carbon cycle response to climate variability. Statistical metrics of modeled interannual variability in sea–air CO2 fluxes compare reasonably well to observationally based estimates. The carbon cycle response to key modes of climate variability is basically similar in the coupled and forced ocean-ice models; however, the two differ in regional detail and in the strength of teleconnections.
    Description: The CESM project is supported by the National Science Foundation and the Office of Science (BER) of the U.S. Department of Energy. SCD acknowledges support of Collaborative Research: Improved Regional and Decadal Predictions of the Carbon Cycle (NSFAGS- 1048827).
    Description: 2014-03-15
    Keywords: Carbon cycle ; Carbon dioxide ; Climate change ; Climate models ; Coupled models ; Oceanic chemistry
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    Soil warming accelerates decomposition of fine woody debris (2012)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: © The Author(s), 2012. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Plant and Soil 356 (2012): 405-417, doi:10.1007/s11104-012-1130-x.
    Description: Soil warming from global climate change could increase decomposition of fine woody debris (FWD), but debris size and quality may mitigate this effect. The goal of this study was to investigate the effect of soil warming on decomposition of fine woody debris of differing size and quality. We placed FWD of two size classes (2 × 20 cm and 4 × 40 cm) and four species (Acer saccharum, Betula lenta, Quercus rubra and Tsuga canadensis) in a soil warming and ambient area at Harvard Forest in central Massachusetts. We collected the debris from each area over two years and measured mass loss and lignin concentration. Warming increased mass loss for all species and size classes (by as much as 30%), but larger debris and debris with higher initial lignin content decomposed slower than smaller debris and debris with lower initial lignin content. Lignin degradation did not follow the same trends as mass loss. Lignin loss from the most lignin-rich species, T. canadensis, was the highest despite the fact that it lost mass the slowest. Our results suggest that soil warming will increase decomposition of FWD in temperate forests. It is imperative that future models and policy efforts account for this potential shift in the carbon storage pool.
    Keywords: Woody debris ; Lignin ; Decomposition ; Soil warming ; Climate change
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    Minimum distribution of subsea ice-bearing permafrost on the U.S. Beaufort Sea continental shelf (2012)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: This paper is not subject to U.S. copyright. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 39 (2012): L15501, doi:10.1029/2012GL052222.
    Description: Starting in Late Pleistocene time (~19 ka), sea level rise inundated coastal zones worldwide. On some parts of the present-day circum-Arctic continental shelf, this led to flooding and thawing of formerly subaerial permafrost and probable dissociation of associated gas hydrates. Relict permafrost has never been systematically mapped along the 700-km-long U.S. Beaufort Sea continental shelf and is often assumed to extend to ~120 m water depth, the approximate amount of sea level rise since the Late Pleistocene. Here, 5,000 km of multichannel seismic (MCS) data acquired between 1977 and 1992 were examined for high-velocity (〉2.3 km s−1) refractions consistent with ice-bearing, coarse-grained sediments. Permafrost refractions were identified along 〈5% of the tracklines at depths of ~5 to 470 m below the seafloor. The resulting map reveals the minimum extent of subsea ice-bearing permafrost, which does not extend seaward of 30 km offshore or beyond the 20 m isobath.
    Description: This research was sponsored by DOE-USGS Interagency Agreement DE-FE0002911. L.B. was supported by a DOE NETL/NRC Methane Hydrate Fellowship under DE-FC26-05NT42248.
    Keywords: Beaufort Sea ; Climate change ; Methane hydrates ; Refraction ; Sea level ; Subsea permafrost
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    The impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the uptake and accumulation of anthropogenic CO2 by North Atlantic Ocean mode waters (2011)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2011. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 25 (2011): GB3022, doi:10.1029/2010GB003892.
    Description: The North Atlantic Ocean accounts for about 25% of the global oceanic anthropogenic carbon sink. This basin experiences significant interannual variability primarily driven by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). A suite of biogeochemical model simulations is used to analyze the impact of interannual variability on the uptake and storage of contemporary and anthropogenic carbon (Canthro) in the North Atlantic Ocean. Greater winter mixing during positive NAO years results in increased mode water formation and subsequent increases in subtropical and subpolar Canthro inventories. Our analysis suggests that changes in mode water Canthro inventories are primarily due to changes in water mass volumes driven by variations in water mass transformation rates rather than local air-sea CO2 exchange. This suggests that a significant portion of anthropogenic carbon found in the ocean interior may be derived from surface waters advected into water formation regions rather than from local gas exchange. Therefore, changes in climate modes, such as the NAO, may alter the residence time of anthropogenic carbon in the ocean by altering the rate of water mass transformation. In addition, interannual variability in Canthro storage increases the difficulty of Canthro detection and attribution through hydrographic observations, which are limited by sparse sampling of subsurface waters in time and space.
    Description: We would like to acknowledge funding from the NOAA Climate Program under the Office of Climate Observations and Global Carbon Cycle Program (NOAA‐NA07OAR4310098), NSF (OCE‐0623034), NCAR, the WHOI Ocean Climate Institute, a National Defense Science and Engineering Graduate Fellowship and an Environmental Protection Agency STAR graduate fellowship. NCAR is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.
    Keywords: North Atlantic Oscillation ; Anthropogenic carbon ; Carbon cycle ; Climate change ; Global climate model ; Mode waters
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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    Glacial flour dust storms in the Gulf of Alaska : hydrologic and meteorological controls and their importance as a source of bioavailable iron (2011)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2011. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 38 (2011): L06602, doi:10.1029/2010GL046573.
    Description: Iron is an essential micronutrient that limits primary productivity in much of the ocean, including the Gulf of Alaska (GoA). However, the processes that transport iron to the ocean surface are poorly quantified. We combine satellite and meteorological data to provide the first description of widespread dust transport from coastal Alaska into the GoA. Dust is frequently transported from glacially-derived sediment at the mouths of several rivers, the most prominent of which is the Copper River. These dust events occur most frequently in autumn, when coastal river levels are low and riverbed sediments are exposed. The dust plumes are transported several hundred kilometers beyond the continental shelf into iron-limited waters. We estimate the mass of dust transported from the Copper River valley during one 2006 dust event to be between 25–80 ktons. Based on conservative estimates, this equates to a soluble iron loading of 30–200 tons. We suggest the soluble Fe flux from dust originating in glaciofluvial sediment deposits from the entire GoA coastline is two to three times larger, and is comparable to the annual Fe flux to GoA surface waters from eddies of coastal origin. Given that glaciers are retreating in the coastal GoA region and in other locations, it is important to examine whether fluxes of dust are increasing from glacierized landscapes to the ocean, and to assess the impact of associated Fe on marine ecosystems.
    Description: We appreciate support from the USGS CMGP, NCCWSC, the Mendenhall postdoc program, the Woods Hole PEP intern program, and from NASA‐IDS.
    Keywords: Dust ; Glacier ; Iron ; Aerosol ; Climate change ; Micronutrient
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    Response and impact of equatorial ocean dynamics and tropical instability waves in the tropical Atlantic under global warming : a regional coupled downscaling study (2011)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2011. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 116 (2011): C03026, doi:10.1029/2010JC006670.
    Description: A regional coupled model is used for a dynamic downscaling over the tropical Atlantic based on a global warming simulation carried out with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory CM2.1. The regional coupled model features a realistic representation of equatorial ocean dynamical processes such as the tropical instability waves (TIWs) that are not adequately simulated in many global coupled climate models. The coupled downscaling hence provides a unique opportunity to assess their response and impact in a changing climate. Under global warming, both global and regional models exhibit an increased (decreased) rainfall in the tropical northeast (South) Atlantic. Given this asymmetric change in mean state, the regional model produces the intensified near-surface cross-equatorial southerly wind and zonal currents. The equatorial cold tongue exhibits a reduced surface warming due to the enhanced upwelling. It is mainly associated with the increased vertical velocities driven by cross-equatorial wind, in contrast to the equatorial Pacific, where thermal stratification is suggested to be more important under global warming. The strengthened upwelling and zonal currents in turn amplify the dynamic instability of the equatorial ocean, thereby intensifying TIWs. The increased eddy heat flux significantly warms the equator and counters the effect of enhanced upwelling. Zonal eddy heat flux makes the largest contribution, suggesting a need for sustained monitoring of TIWs with spatially denser observational arrays in the equatorial oceans. Overall, results suggest that eddy heat flux is an important factor that may impact the mean state warming of equatorial oceans, as it does in the current climate.
    Description: H.S. acknowledges the support from the NOAA Climate and Global Change Postdoctoral Fellowship Program and the Penzance Endowed Fund in Support of Assistant Scientists at WHOI. H.S. and S.‐P.X. are thankful for support from NOAA, NSF, and the Japan Agency for Marine‐Earth Science and Technology.
    Keywords: Climate change ; Ocean mesoscale eddy ; Equatorial Atlantic
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    Impact of ocean carbon system variability on the detection of temporal increases in anthropogenic CO2 (2010)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2008. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 113 (2008): C03019, doi:10.1029/2007JC004153.
    Description: Estimates of temporal trends in oceanic anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) rely on the ability of empirical methods to remove the large natural variability of the ocean carbon system. A coupled carbon-climate model is used to evaluate these empirical methods. Both the ΔC* and multiple linear regression (MLR) techniques reproduce the predicted increase in dissolved inorganic carbon for the majority of the ocean and have similar average percent errors for decadal differences (24.1% and 25.5%, respectively). However, this study identifies several regions where these methods may introduce errors. Of particular note are mode and deep water formation regions, where changes in air-sea disequilibrium and structure in the MLR residuals introduce errors. These results have significant implications for decadal repeat hydrography programs, indicating the need for subannual sampling in certain regions of the oceans in order to better constrain the natural variability in the system and to robustly estimate the intrusion of anthropogenic CO2.
    Description: We would like to acknowledge funding from NSF (OCE02-23869), NCAR, the WHOI Ocean Climate Institute, a Linden Earth Systems Graduate Fellowship (MIT), and a National Defense Science and Engineering Graduate Fellowship. NCAR is sponsored by the National Science Foundation. R.W. is supported by the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research at NOAA.
    Keywords: Carbon dioxide ; Ocean carbon sink ; Climate change
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    Assessing sedimentary records of paleohurricane activity using modeled hurricane climatology (2010)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2008. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geochemistry Geophysics Geosystems 9 (2008): Q09V10, doi:10.1029/2008GC002043.
    Description: Patterns of overwash deposition observed within back-barrier sediment archives can indicate past changes in tropical cyclone activity; however, it is necessary to evaluate the significance of observed trends in the context of the full range of variability under modern climate conditions. Here we present a method for assessing the statistical significance of patterns observed within a sedimentary hurricane-overwash reconstruction. To alleviate restrictions associated with the limited number of historical hurricanes affecting a specific site, we apply a recently published technique for generating a large number of synthetic storms using a coupled ocean-atmosphere hurricane model set to simulate modern climatology. Thousands of overwash records are generated for a site using a random draw of these synthetic hurricanes, a prescribed threshold for overwash, and a specified temporal resolution based on sedimentation rates observed at a particular site. As a test case we apply this Monte Carlo technique to a hurricane-induced overwash reconstruction developed from Laguna Playa Grande (LPG), a coastal lagoon located on the island of Vieques, Puerto Rico in the northeastern Caribbean. Apparent overwash rates in the LPG overwash record are observed to be four times lower between 2500 and 1000 years B.P. when compared to apparent overwash rates during the last 300 years. However, probability distributions based on Monte Carlo simulations indicate that as much as 65% of this drop can be explained by a reduction in the temporal resolution for older sediments due to a decrease in sedimentation rates. Periods of no apparent overwash activity at LPG between 2500 and 3600 years B.P. and 500–1000 years B.P. are exceptionally long and are unlikely to occur (above 99% confidence) under the current climate conditions. In addition, breaks in activity are difficult to produce even when the hurricane model is forced to a constant El Niño state. Results from this study continue to support the interpretation that the western North Atlantic has exhibited significant changes in hurricane climatology over the last 5500 years.
    Description: Funding for this research was provided by the Earth Systems History Program of the National Science Foundation, Risk Prediction Initiative, National Geographic Society, Coastal Ocean Institute at WHOI, and the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation Endowed Fund for Innovative Research.
    Keywords: Tropical cyclones ; Paleotempestology ; Paleoclimate ; Holocene ; Climate change ; Sedimentology
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  • 26
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    Sediment and nutrient delivery from thermokarst features in the foothills of the North Slope, Alaska : potential impacts on headwater stream ecosystems (2010)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2008. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 113 (2008): G02026, doi:10.1029/2007JG000470.
    Description: Permafrost is a defining characteristic of the Arctic environment. However, climate warming is thawing permafrost in many areas leading to failures in soil structure called thermokarst. An extensive survey of a 600 km2 area in and around the Toolik Lake Natural Research Area (TLNRA) revealed at least 34 thermokarst features, two thirds of which were new since ∼1980 when a high resolution aerial survey of the area was done. Most of these thermokarst features were associated with headwater streams or lakes. We have measured significantly increased sediment and nutrient loading from thermokarst features to streams in two well-studied locations near the TLNRA. One small thermokarst gully that formed in 2003 on the Toolik River in a 0.9 km2 subcatchment delivered more sediment to the river than is normally delivered in 18 years from 132 km2 in the adjacent upper Kuparuk River basin (a long-term monitoring reference site). Ammonium, nitrate, and phosphate concentrations downstream from a thermokarst feature on Imnavait Creek increased significantly compared to upstream reference concentrations and the increased concentrations persisted over the period of sampling (1999–2005). The downstream concentrations were similar to those we have used in a long-term experimental manipulation of the Kuparuk River and that have significantly altered the structure and function of that river. A subsampling of other thermokarst features from the extensive regional survey showed that concentrations of ammonium, nitrate, and phosphate were always higher downstream of the thermokarst features. Our previous research has shown that even minor increases in nutrient loading stimulate primary and secondary production. However, increased sediment loading could interfere with benthic communities and change the responses to increased nutrient delivery. Although the terrestrial area impacted by thermokarsts is limited, the aquatic habitat altered by these failures can be extensive. If warming in the Arctic foothills accelerates thermokarst formation, there may be substantial and wide-spread impacts on arctic stream ecosystems that are currently poorly understood.
    Description: The results presented in this report are based upon work supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation under grants to the Arctic Hyporheic project (OPP- 0327440) and the Arctic Long-Term Ecological Research Program (DEB- 9810222).
    Keywords: Arctic ; Climate change ; Streams ; Ecosystem dynamics ; Sediment ; Thermokarst ; Water quality
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  • 27
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    Detection of change in the Arctic using satellite and in situ data (2010)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2003. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 108, C12 (2003): 3384, doi:10.1029/2002JC001347.
    Description: The decade of the 1990s was the warmest decade of the last century, while the year 1998 was the warmest year ever observed by modern techniques, with 9 out of 12 months of the year being the warmest months. Satellite ice cover and surface temperature data, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (wind), and ocean hydrographic data are examined to gain insights into this warming phenomenon. Areas of ice-free water in both western and eastern regions of the Arctic are found to have followed a cyclical pattern with approximately decadal period but with a lag of about 3 years between the eastern and western regions. The pattern was interrupted by unusually large anomalies in 1993 and 1998 in the western region and in 1995 in the eastern region. The area of open water in 1998 was the largest ever observed in the western region and occurred concurrently with large surface temperature anomalies in the area and adjacent regions. This also occurred at a time when the atmospheric circulation changed from predominantly cyclonic in 1996 to anticyclonic in 1997 and 1998. Detailed hydrographic measurements over the same general area in April 1996 and April 1997 indicate a warming and significant freshening in the top layer of the ocean, suggesting increases in ice melt and/or river runoff. Continuous ocean temperature and salinity data from ocean buoys at depths of 8, 45, and 75 m confirm these results and show large interannual changes during the 1996–1998 period. Surface temperature data show a general warming in the region that is highly correlated with observed decline in summer sea ice, while hydrographic data suggest that in 1997 and 1998, the upper part of the ocean was unusually fresh and warm compared to available data between 1956 and 1996.
    Description: Deployments of the IOEB were supported by the Japanese Marine Science and Technology Center (JAMSTEC).
    Keywords: Arctic Sea ice ; Climate change ; Surface temperature ; Wind ; Buoy ; Hydrography
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 28
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    Effects of tropospheric ozone pollution on net primary productivity and carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems of China (2010)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2007. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 112 (2007): D22S09, doi:10.1029/2007JD008521.
    Description: We investigated the potential effects of elevated ozone (O3) along with climate variability, increasing CO2, and land use change on net primary productivity (NPP) and carbon storage in China's terrestrial ecosystems for the period 1961–2000 with a process-based Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM) forced by the gridded data of historical tropospheric O3 and other environmental factors. The simulated results showed that elevated O3 could result in a mean 4.5% reduction in NPP and 0.9% reduction in total carbon storage nationwide from 1961 to 2000. The reduction of carbon storage varied from 0.1 Tg C to 312 Tg C (a decreased rate ranging from 0.2% to 6.9%) among plant functional types. The effects of tropospheric O3 on NPP were strongest in east-central China. Significant reductions in NPP occurred in northeastern and central China where a large proportion of cropland is distributed. The O3 effects on carbon fluxes and storage are dependent upon other environmental factors. Therefore direct and indirect effects of O3, as well as interactive effects with other environmental factors, should be taken into account in order to accurately assess the regional carbon budget in China. The results showed that the adverse influences of increasing O3 concentration across China on NPP could be an important disturbance factor on carbon storage in the near future, and the improvement of air quality in China could enhance the capability of China's terrestrial ecosystems to sequester more atmospheric CO2. Our estimation of O3 impacts on NPP and carbon storage in China, however, must be used with caution because of the limitation of historical tropospheric O3 data and other uncertainties associated with model parameters and field experiments.
    Description: This research is funded by NASA Interdisciplinary Science Program (NNG04GM39C).
    Keywords: Air pollution ; Carbon storage ; China ; Climate change ; Net primary productivity ; Tropospheric ozone
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 29
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    On the maximum observed wind speed in a randomly sampled hurricane (2010)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2010. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 23 (2010): 1262-1265, doi:10.1175/2009JCLI2803.1.
    Description: There is considerable interest in detecting a long-term trend in hurricane intensity possibly related to large-scale ocean warming. This effort is complicated by the paucity of wind speed measurements for hurricanes occurring in the early part of the observational record. Here, results are presented regarding the maximum observed wind speed in a sparsely randomly sampled hurricane based on a model of the evolution of wind speed over the lifetime of a hurricane.
    Description: Support for this work was provided by NOAA Grant NA17RJ1223.
    Keywords: Hurricanes ; Wind ; Tropical cyclones ; Wind gusts ; Statistical techniques ; Climate change
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 30
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    Large-scale responses of complex-shaped coastlines to local shoreline stabilization and climate change (2010)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2010. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 115 (2010): F03033, doi:10.1029/2009JF001486.
    Description: When modeling the large-scale (〉 km) evolution of coastline morphology, the influence of natural forces is not the only consideration; ongoing direct human manipulations can substantially drive geomorphic change. In this paper, we couple a human component to a numerical model of large-scale coastline evolution, incorporating beach “nourishment” (periodically placing sand on the beach, also called “beach replenishment” or “beach fill”). Beach nourishment is the most prevalent means humans employ to alter the natural shoreline system in our case study, the Carolina coastline. Beach nourishment can cause shorelines adjacent to those that are nourished to shift both seaward and landward. When we further consider how changes to storm behaviors could change wave climates, the magnitude of morphological change induced by beach nourishment can rival that expected from sea level rise and affect the coast as far as tens of kilometers away from the nourishment site. In some instances, nonlocal processes governing large-scale cuspate-cape coastline evolution may transmit the human morphological “signal” over surprisingly large (hundreds of kilometer) distances.
    Description: The National Science Foundation (DEB 0507987) and the Duke University Center on Global Change supported this work.
    Keywords: Coastline evolution ; Beach nourishment ; Climate change
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Evidence of a physiological basis for the boreal-deciduous forest ecotone in North America (1989)
    Springer
    Plant ecology 82 (1989), S. 55-58 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-5052
    Keywords: Boreal forest ; Climate change ; Deciduous forest ; Frost resistance ; Vegetation distribution
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract The observed northern limit of the deciduous forest formation in North America is shown to agree closely with the reported −40°C average annual minimum temperature isotherm. This indicates that supercooling as a means of resisting freezing stresses may set a physiological limit on the northern expansion of the deciduous forest formation.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00217982
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    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Conifer regeneration failure in New Zealand: dynamics of montane Libocedrus bidwillii stands (1988)
    Springer
    Plant ecology 79 (1988), S. 41-49 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-5052
    Keywords: Age structure ; Climate change ; Conifer regeneration gap ; Dacrydium biforme ; Disturbance ; Forest dynamics ; Size structure ; Westland
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract Size and age structure analysis were used to reconstruct the population dynamics of six apparently old and stable stands dominated by the conifers Libocedrus bidwillii and/or Dacrydium biforme in Camp Creek, Westland, New Zealand. All stands contained relatively even-aged groups of Libocedrus that had probably originated after either mass movement or windthrow. The age distributions of stands reflected the effects of disturbances 200–400 yr ago. There was no evidence to support synchronous failure of regeneration of Libocedrus and Dacrydium biforme. Between 1600 and 1800 A.D., the period of the postulated conifer regeneration gap, over 70% of trees of these species had established. A lack of Libocedrus regeneration over the last 200 yr reflects a lack of disturbance over that time. Because of the dominating influence of disturbances and other factors it may be inappropriate to use tree population structures alone to substantiate or refute claims of recent climate change.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00044847
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