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  • 04.06. Seismology  (12)
  • Oxford University Press  (5)
  • Elsevier  (4)
  • Nature P.G.  (2)
  • American Meteorological Society
  • Springer Nature
  • Wiley
  • 2020-2022  (12)
  • 1965-1969
  • 1960-1964
  • 1
    Publication Date: 2021-03-15
    Description: In a recent work we computed the relative frequencies with which strong shocks (4.0≤Mw〈5.0), widely felt by the population were followed in the same area by potentially destructive main shocks (Mw≥5.0) in Italy. Assuming the stationarity of the seismic release properties, such frequencies can be tentatively used to estimate the probabilities of potentially destructive shocks after the occurrence of future strong shocks. This allows us to set up an alarm-based forecasting hypothesis related to strong foreshocks occurrence. Such hypothesis is tested retrospectively on the data of a homogenized seismic catalogue of the Italian area against a purely random hypothesis that simply forecasts the target main shocks proportionally to the space-time fraction occupied by the alarms. We compute the latter fraction in two ways a) as the ratio between the average time covered by the alarms in each area and the total duration of the forecasting experiment (60 years) and b) as the same ratio but weighted by the past frequency of occurrence of earthquakes in each area. In both cases the overall retrospective performance of our forecasting algorithm is definitely better than the random case. Considering an alarm duration of three months, the algorithm retrospectively forecasts more than 70% of all shocks with Mw5.5 occurred in Italy from 1960 to 2019 with a total space-time fraction covered by the alarms of the order of 2%. Considering the same space-time coverage, the algorithm is also able to retrospectively forecasts more than 40% of the first main shocks with Mw5.5 of the seismic sequences occurred in the same time interval. Given the good reliability of our results, the forecasting algorithm is set and ready to be tested also prospectively, in parallel to other ongoing procedures operating on the Italian territory.
    Description: This paper benefitted from funding provided by the European Union within the ambit of the H2020 project RISE (No. 821115), which in particular fully financed the PhD grant of one of the authors (E.B.).
    Description: Published
    Description: 1192–1206
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Earthquake interaction ; Statistical seismology ; forecasting, ; prediction ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2021-01-07
    Description: Based on multidisciplinary data, including seismological and geodetic observations, as well as seismic reflection profiles and gravity maps, we analysed the pattern of crustal deformation and active tectonics in the Sicily Channel, a key observation point to unravel the complex interaction between two major plates, Nubia and Eurasia, in the Mediterranean Sea. Our data highlight the presence of an active ~ 220-km-long complex lithospheric fault system (here named the Lampedusa-Sciacca Shear Zone), approximately oriented N-S, crossing the study area with left-lateral strike-slip deformations, active volcanism and high heat flow. We suggest that this shear zone represents the most active tectonic domain in the area, while the NW-SE elongated rifting pattern, considered the first order tectonic feature, appears currently inactive and sealed by undeformed recent (Lower Pleistocene?) deposits. Estimates of seismological and geodetic moment-rates, 6.58 × 1015 Nm/year and 7.24 × 1017 Nm/year, respectively, suggests that seismicity accounts only for ~ 0.9% of crustal deformation, while the anomalous thermal state and the low thickness of the crust would significantly inhibit frictional sliding in favour of creeping and aseismic deformation. We therefore conclude that a significant amount of the estimated crustal deformation-rate occurs aseismically, opening new scenarios for seismic risk assessments in the region.
    Description: Published
    Description: 21238
    Description: 2T. Deformazione crostale attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: 04. Solid Earth ; 04.02. Exploration geophysics ; 04.03. Geodesy ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2021-03-24
    Description: The 2016–17 central Italy earthquake sequence began with the first mainshock near the town of Amatrice on August 24 (MW 6.0), and was followed by two subsequent large events near Visso on October 26 (MW 5.9) and Norcia on October 30 (MW 6.5), plus a cluster of 4 events with MW 〉 5.0 within few hours on January 18, 2017. The affected area had been monitored before the sequence started by the permanent Italian National Seismic Network (RSNC), and was enhanced during the sequence by temporary stations deployed by the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology and the British Geological Survey. By the middle of September, there was a dense network of 155 stations, with a mean separation in the epicentral area of 6–10 km, comparable to the most likely earthquake depth range in the region. This network configuration was kept stable for an entire year, producing 2.5 TB of continuous waveform recordings. Here we describe how this data was used to develop a large and comprehensive earthquake catalogue using the Complete Automatic Seismic Processor (CASP) procedure. This procedure detected more than 450,000 events in the year following the first mainshock, and determined their phase arrival times through an advanced picker engine (RSNI-Picker2), producing a set of about 7 million P- and 10 million S-wave arrival times. These were then used to locate the events using a non-linear location (NLL) algorithm, a 1D velocity model calibrated for the area, and station corrections and then to compute their local magnitudes (ML). The procedure was validated by comparison of the derived data for phase picks and earthquake parameters with a handpicked reference catalogue (hereinafter referred to as ‘RefCat’). The automated procedure takes less than 12 hours on an Intel Core-i7 workstation to analyse the primary waveform data and to detect and locate 3000 events on the most seismically active day of the sequence. This proves the concept that the CASP algorithm can provide effectively real-time data for input into daily operational earthquake forecasts, The results show that there have been significant improvements compared to RefCat obtained in the same period using manual phase picks. The number of detected and located events is higher (from 84,401 to 450,000), the magnitude of completeness is lower (from ML 1.4 to 0.6), and also the number of phase picks is greater with an average number of 72 picked arrival for a ML = 1.4 compared with 30 phases for RefCat using manual phase picking. These propagate into formal uncertainties of ± 0.9km in epicentral location and ± 1.5km in depth for the enhanced catalogue for the vast majority of the events. Together, these provide a significant improvement in the resolution of fine structures such as local planar structures and clusters, in particular the identification of shallow events occurring in parts of the crust previously thought to be inactive. The lower completeness magnitude provides a rich data set for development and testing of analysis techniques of seismic sequences evolution, including real-time, operational monitoring of b-value, time-dependent hazard evaluation and aftershock forecasting.
    Description: Published
    Description: 555–571
    Description: 3T. Fisica dei terremoti e Sorgente Sismica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2021-05-12
    Description: erratum paper
    Description: Published
    Description: 1090-1092
    Description: 1T. Struttura della Terra
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Theoretical seismology ; Seismic attenuation ; Seismic noise ; Surface waves ; Free oscillations ; Seismic interferometry ; 04.06. Seismology ; 04.01. Earth Interior
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2021-01-05
    Description: We use seismic data together with a subglacial bedrock relief from the BEDMAP2 database to obtain a new three- layer model of the consolidated (crystalline) crust of Antarctica that locally improves the global seismic crustal model CRUST1.0. We collect suitable data for constructing crustal layers, analyse them and build maps of the crustal layer thickness and seismic velocities. We use the subglacial relief according to a tectonic configuration and then interpolate data using a statistical kriging method. The P-wave velocity information from old seismic profiles have been supplemented with the new shear-wave velocity models. We adjust the thickness of crustal layers by multiplying a total crustal thickness by a percentage ratio of each individual layer at each point. Our re- sults reveal large variations in seismic velocities between different crustal blocks forming Antarctica. The most pronounced differences exist between East and West Antarctica. In East Antarctica, a high P-wave velocity (vP 〉 7 km/s) layer in the lower crust is absent. The P-wave velocity in the lower crust changes from 6.1 km/s beneath the Lambert Rift to 6.9 km/s beneath the Wilkes Basin. In West Antarctica, a thick mafic lower crust is characterized by large P-wave velocities, ranging from 7.0 km/s under the Ross Sea to 7.3 km/s under the Byrd Basin. In contrast, velocities in the lower crust beneath the Transantarctic and Ellsworth-Whitmore Mountains are ~6.8 km/s. The P-wave velocities in the upper crust in East Antarctica are within the range 5.5–6.4 km/s. The upper crust of West Antarctica is characterized by the P-wave velocities of 5.6–6.3 km/s. The P-wave veloc- ities in the middle crust vary within 5.9–6.6 km/s in East Antarctica and within 6.3–6.5 km/s in West Antarctica. A low-velocity layer (5.8–5.9 km/s) is detected at depth of ~20–25 km beneath the Princes Elizabeth Land.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1-18
    Description: 1T. Struttura della Terra
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Crustal structure ; Sediments ; Antarctica ; Gondwana ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2021-04-14
    Description: The scaling of earthquake parameters with seismic moment and its interpretation in terms of self- similarity is still debated in the literature. We address this question by examining a worldwide compilation of corner frequency-based and elastic rebound theory (ERT)-based fault slip, area and stress drop values for earthquakes ranging in magnitude from -0.7 to 7.8. We find that corner frequency estimates of slip (and stress drop) scale differently than those inferred from the ERT approach, where the latter deviates from the generally accepted constant stress drop behavior of so- called self-similar scaling models. We also find that average slips from finite-source models are consistent with corner frequency scaling, whereas peak slip values are more consistent with the ERT scaling. The different scaling of corner frequency- and ERT-based estimates of slip and stress drop with earthquake size is interpreted in terms of heterogeneity of the rupture process. ERT-based estimates of stress drop decrease with seismic moment suggesting a self-affine behavior. Despite the inferred heterogeneity at all scales, we do not observe a clear effect on the Brune stress drop scaling with earthquake size.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1771–1781
    Description: 2T. Deformazione crostale attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Earthquake dynamics ; Earthquake source observations ; Dynamics and mechanics of faulting ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2020-11-02
    Description: Most snow avalanches occur unobserved, which becomes particularly dramatic when human lives are involved. Seismological observations can be helpful to unravel time and dynamics of unseen events, like the deadly avalanche of January 18, 2017, that hit a Resort-hotel at Rigopiano in the Abruzzi (Italy). Particle motion analysis and spectrograms from data recorded by a close seismic broadband station, calculation of synthetic seismograms, as well as simulation of the flow, allowed us to construct the dynamics of the snow avalanche that buried alive 40 people, killing 29. Due to the bad weather conditions, no visual observation was made, thus making it impossible to determine the exact moment of the avalanche and to report necessary observations of the dramatic event. On-site inspections revealed that the hotel was horizontally cut by shear forces and dislocated by 48 m in 70°N direction, once the increasing avalanche pressure exceeded the structural shear strength of the building. Within an eligible 24 min time range of the avalanche, we found three weak seismic transients, starting at 15:42:38 UTC, recorded by the nearest operating station GIGS located in the Gran Sasso underground laboratory approximately 17 km away. Particle motion analysis of the strongest seismic avalanche signal, as well as of the synthetic seismograms match best when assuming a single force seismic source, attacking in direction of 120°N. Simulation of the avalanche dynamics-calculated by using a 2D rapid mass movement simulator-indicates that the seismic signals were rather generated as the avalanche flowed through a narrow and twisting canyon directly above the hotel. Once the avalanche enters the canyon it is travelling at maximum velocity (37 m/s) and is twice strongly deflected by the rock sidewalls. These impacts created a distinct linearly polarized seismic "avalanche transient"s that can be used to time the destruction of the hotel. Our results demonstrate that seismic recordings combined with simulations of mass movements are indispensable to remotely monitor snow avalanches. Seismology provides useful tools that can help to better understand the dynamics of seismic events, different from earthquakes, as e.g. volcanic eruptions, rock falls or huge landslides 1-5. There are only a few examples in literature where seismology was successfully used to study avalanches 6-10 , probably because the density of snow is up to ten times smaller, compared to debris, which results in a reduced ground coupling and in a smaller seismic signal amplitude. On January 18, 2017, in a remote location in the Abruzzo region (Central Italy), a deadly avalanche buried 40 people under the Resort-hotel "Rigopiano". In a dramatic rescue operation 11 people could be recovered, while for another 29 persons there was no way to escape. The bad weather conditions with heavy snowfall closed the access road, isolating the Rigopiano location from the outside world. The reduced visibility prevented any eyewitness report of the avalanche, thus the exact moment, as well as the dynamics of this catastrophic event, are still not confirmed. We use seismic recordings and on-site inspection, combined with numerical modelling, to reconstruct the dynamics and to determine the exact moment of the deadly avalanche.
    Description: Published
    Description: 18563
    Description: 3T. Sorgente sismica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: avalanche ; Rigopiano ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2021-05-12
    Description: We have constructed a 3-D shear wave velocity (Vs) model for the crust and uppermost mantle beneath the Middle East using Rayleigh wave records obtained from ambient-noise cross-correlations and regional earthquakes. We combined one decade of data collected from 852 permanent and temporary broad-band stations in the region to calculate group-velocity dispersion curves. A compilation of 〉54 000 ray paths provides reliable group-velocity measurements for periods between 2 and 150 s. Path-averaged group velocities calculated at different periods were inverted for 2-D group-velocity maps. To overcome the problem of heterogeneous ray coverage, we used an adaptive grid parametrization for the group-velocity tomographic inversion. We then sample the period-dependent group-velocity field at each cell of a predefined grid to generate 1-D group-velocity dispersion curves, which are subsequently inverted for 1-D Vs models beneath each cell and combined to approximate the 3-D Vs structure of the area. The Vs model shows low velocities at shallow depths (5–10 km) beneath the Mesopotamian foredeep, South Caspian Basin, eastern Mediterranean and the Black Sea, in coincidence with deep sedimentary basins. Shallow high-velocity anomalies are observed in regions such as the Arabian Shield, Anatolian Plateau and Central Iran, which are dominated by widespread magmatic exposures. In the 10–20 km depth range, we find evidence for a band of high velocities (〉4.0 km s–1) along the southern Red Sea and Arabian Shield, indicating the presence of upper mantle rocks. Our 3-D velocity model exhibits high velocities in the depth range of 30–50 km beneath western Arabia, eastern Mediterranean, Central Iranian Block, South Caspian Basin and the Black Sea, possibly indicating a relatively thin crust. In contrast, the Zagros mountain range, the Sanandaj-Sirjan metamorphic zone in western central Iran, the easternmost Anatolian plateau and Lesser Caucasus are characterized by low velocities at these depths. Some of these anomalies may be related to thick crustal roots that support the high topography of these regions. In the upper mantle depth range, high-velocity anomalies are obtained beneath the Arabian Platform, southern Zagros, Persian Gulf and the eastern Mediterranean, in contrast to low velocities beneath the Red Sea, Arabian Shield, Afar depression, eastern Turkey and Lut Block in eastern Iran. Our Vs model may be used as a new reference crustal model for the Middle East in a broad range of future studies.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1349-1365
    Description: 1T. Struttura della Terra
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: 04.01. Earth Interior ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2020-06-10
    Description: Understanding how long-term subduction dynamics relates to the short-term seismicity and crustal tec tonics is a challenging but crucial topic in seismotectonics. We attempt to address this issue by linking long-term geodynamic evolution with short-term seismogenic deformation in the Northern Apennines. This retreating subduction orogen displays tectonic and seismogenic behaviors on various spatiotemporal scales that also characterize other subduction zones in the Mediterranean area. We use visco-elasto-plastic seismo-thermo-mechanical (STM) modeling with a realistic 2D setup based on available geological and geophysical data. The subduction dynamics and seismicity are coupled in the numerical modeling, and driven only by buoyancy forces, i.e., slab pull. Our results suggest that lower crustal rheology and lithospheric mantle temperature modulate the crustal tectonics of the Northern Apennines, as inferred by previous studies. The observed spatial distribution of upper crustal tectonic regimes and surface displacements requires buoyant, highly ductile material in the subduction channel beneath the internal part of the orogen. This allows protrusion of the asthenosphere in the lower crust and lithospheric delamination associated with slab retreat. The resulting surface velocities and principal stress axes generally agree with present-day observations, suggesting that slab delamination and retreat can explain the dynamics of the orogen. Our simulations successfully reproduce the type and overall distribution of seismicity with thrust faulting events in the external part of the orogen and normal faulting in its internal part. Slab temperatures and lithospheric mantle stiffness affect the cumulative seismic moment release and spatial distribution of upper crustal earthquakes. The properties of deep, sub-crustal material are thus shown to influence upper crustal seismicity in an orogen driven by slab retreat, even though the upper crust is largely decoupled from the lithospheric mantle. Our simulations therefore highlight the effect of deep lower crustal rheologies, self-driven subduction dynamics and mantle properties in controlling shallow deformation and seismicity.
    Description: Published
    Description: 228481
    Description: 1T. Struttura della Terra
    Description: 2T. Deformazione crostale attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Numerical modeling ; Geodynamics ; Seismotectonics orogen ; Delamination ; Northern Apennines ; 04.06. Seismology ; 04.03. Geodesy ; 05.01. Computational geophysics ; 04.07. Tectonophysics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2020-03-03
    Description: The Mw = 7.3 earthquake near the Iran-Iraq border in west Iran (34.911°N, 45.959°E) occurred at 18:18:17 UTC (LT = UTC + 03:30), November 12, 2017 as the result of oblique-thrust faulting at mid-crustal depth (∼19 km). Median, Kalman filter and Neural Network, as three standard, classical and intelligent methods, have been implemented to investigate three months of GPS Total Electron Content (TEC) measurements and to detect the striking anomalous variations around the time and location of the mentioned earthquake. The first method detects unusual variations, 9 days before the event, between 21:00 and 22:00 UTC. The other two methods of Kalman filter and Neural Network detect another clear anomaly on 11 days preceding the earthquake at 16:00 UTC. These findings are two of the outstanding results of GPS-TEC precursor analysis. This paper also presents the results of Swarm satellites (Alpha, Bravo and Charlie) data analysis inside the Dobrovolsky area around the Iran earthquake epicenter during the period from 1 August to 30 November 2017. The time series and orbital analysis of six measured parameters including electron density, electron temperature, magnetic scalar and vectors (X, Y, Z) components indicate irregular variations between 8 and 11 days prior to the occurrence of the earthquake. Since the variations of the solar and geomagnetic indices follow a normal behaviour during the whole period of the observed ionospheric anomalies between 8 and 11 days before the earthquake, it can be concluded that multi-precursors analysis has an important role to acknowledge the seismo-LAI (Lithospheric-Atmospheric-Ionospheric) anomalies associated to strong earthquakes such as this case. Furthermore, some physical and chemical atmospheric parameters from a climatological database are investigated and some interesting anomalies above two standard deviations prior to the earthquake are found. This paper shows not only anomalies in atmosphere and ionosphere but also a contemporary analysis of different data sources to detect the possible Lithosphere Atmosphere Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) effects.
    Description: ASI
    Description: Published
    Description: 143-158
    Description: 7T. Variazioni delle caratteristiche crostali e precursori sismici
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Earthquake precursors ; LAIC ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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