ALBERT

Beschreibung: The evaluation of potential landslides in mountain areas is a very complex process. Currently, event understanding is scarce due to information limitations. Identifying the whole chain of events is not a straightforward task, and the impacts of mass-wasting processes depend on the conditions downstream of the origin. In this paper, we present an example that illustrates the complexities in the evaluation of the chain of events that may lead to a natural disaster. On 16 December 2017, a landslide occurred in the Yelcho mountain range (southern Chile). In that event, 7 million m3 of rocks and soil fell on the Yelcho glacier, depositing 2 million m3 on the glacier terminal, and the rest continued downstream, triggering a mudflow that hit Villa Santa Lucía in Chilean Patagonia and killing 22 people. The complex event was anticipated in the region by the National Geological and Mining Survey (Sernageomin in Spanish). However, the effects of the terrain characteristics along the run-out area were more significant than anticipated. In this work, we evaluate the conditions that enabled the mudflow that hit Villa Santa Lucía. We used the information generated by Sernageomin's professionals after the mudflow. We carried out geotechnical tests to characterize the soil. We simulated the mudflow using two hydrodynamic programs (r.avaflow and Flo-2D) that can handle the rheology of the water–soil mixture. Our results indicate that the soil is classified as volcanic pumices. This type of soil can be susceptible to the collapse of the structure when subjected to shearing (molding), flowing as a viscous liquid. From the numerical modeling, we concluded that r.avaflow performs better than Flo-2D. The mudflow was satisfactorily simulated using a water content in the mixture ranging from 30 % to 40 %, which would have required a source of about 3 million m3 of water. Coupling the simulations and the soil tests that we performed, we estimated that in the area scoured by the mudflow, there were probably around 2 800 000 m3 of water within the soil. Therefore, the conditions of the valley were crucial to enhancing the impacts of the landslide. This result is relevant because it highlights the importance of evaluating the complete chain of events to map hazards. We suggest that in future hazard mapping, geotechnical studies in combination with hydrodynamic simulation should be included, in particular when human lives are at risk.

Beschreibung: Evapotranspiration (ET) from tropical forests serves as a critical moisture source for regional and global climate cycles. However, the magnitude, seasonality, and interannual variability of ET in the Congo Basin remain poorly constrained due to a scarcity of direct observations, despite the Congo being the second-largest river basin in the world and containing a vast region of tropical forest. In this study, we applied a water balance model to an array of remotely sensed and in situ datasets to produce monthly, basin-wide ET estimates spanning April 2002 to November 2016. Data sources include water storage changes estimated from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites, in situ measurements of river discharge, and precipitation from several remotely sensed and gauge-based sources. An optimal precipitation dataset was determined as a weighted average of interpolated data by Nicholson et al. (2018), Climate Hazards InfraRed Precipitation with Station data version 2 (CHIRPS2) , and the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks–Climate Data Record product (PERSIANN-CDR), with the relative weights based on the error magnitudes of each dataset as determined by triple collocation. The resulting water-balance-derived ET (ETwb) features a long-term average that is consistent with previous studies (117.2±3.5 cm yr−1) but displays greater seasonal and interannual variability than seven global ET products. The seasonal cycle of ETwb generally tracks that of precipitation over the basin, with the exception that ETwb is greater in March–April–May (MAM) than in the relatively wetter September–October–November (SON) periods. This pattern appears to be driven by seasonal variations in the diffuse photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) fraction, net radiation (Rn), and soil water availability. From 2002 to 2016, Rn, PAR, and vapor-pressure deficit (VPD) all increased significantly within the Congo Basin; however, no corresponding trend occurred in ETwb. We hypothesize that the stability of ETwb over the study period despite sunnier and less humid conditions may be due to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations that offset the impacts of rising VPD and irradiance on stomatal water use efficiency (WUE).

Beschreibung: Optimum management of irrigated crops in regions with shallow saline groundwater requires a careful balance between application of irrigation water and upward movement of salinity from the groundwater. Few field-validated surrogate models are available to aid in the management of irrigation water under shallow groundwater conditions. The objective of this research is to develop a model that can aid in the management using a minimum of input data that are field validated. In this paper a 2-year field experiment was carried out in the Hetao irrigation district in Inner Mongolia, China, and a physically based integrated surrogate model for arid irrigated areas with shallow groundwater was developed and validated with the collected field data. The integrated model that links crop growth with available water and salinity in the vadose zone is called Evaluation of the Performance of Irrigated Crops and Soils (EPICS). EPICS recognizes that field capacity is reached when the matric potential is equal to the height above the groundwater table and thus not by a limiting hydraulic conductivity. In the field experiment, soil moisture contents and soil salt conductivity at five depths in the top 100 cm, groundwater depth, crop height, and leaf area index were measured in 2017 and 2018. The field results were used for calibration and validation of EPICS. Simulated and observed data fitted generally well during both calibration and validation. The EPICS model that can predict crop growth, soil water, groundwater depth, and soil salinity can aid in optimizing water management in irrigation districts with shallow aquifers.

Beschreibung: In the framework of the EU Copernicus programme, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) on behalf of the Joint Research Centre (JRC) is forecasting daily fire weather indices using its medium-range ensemble prediction system. The use of weather forecasts in place of local observations can extend early warnings by up to 1–2 weeks, allowing for greater proactive coordination of resource-sharing and mobilization within and across countries. Using 1 year of pre-operational service in 2017 and the Fire Weather Index (FWI), here we assess the capability of the system globally and analyse in detail three major events in Chile, Portugal and California. The analysis shows that the skill provided by the ensemble forecast system extends to more than 10 d when compared to the use of mean climate, making a case for extending the forecast range to the sub-seasonal to seasonal timescale. However, accurate FWI prediction does not translate into accuracy in the forecast of fire activity globally. Indeed, when all fires detected in 2017 are considered, including agricultural- and human-induced burning, high FWI values only occur in 50 % of the cases and are limited to the Boreal regions. Nevertheless for very large events which were driven by weather conditions, FWI forecasts provide advance warning that could be instrumental in setting up management and containment strategies.

Beschreibung: In Finland, crop choices are limited, and cultivation is only possible in the regions where production risks and uncertainties are manageable. Climate change progresses rapidly at high latitudes and the thermal growing season is projected to become substantially longer in the future. This study aimed to monitor the regional shifts in major, secondary, minor and novel crops during 1996–2016 in Finland. We used long-term data from the Finnish Food Agency and evaluated changes in time to reach maturity of cultivars of model crops by using official variety trial data. Substantial changes were recorded in cultivation areas of crops, including expansion into new regions. Some of the traditional major crops such as oats (− 20%, i.e. − 75,700 ha from 1996 to 2016), barley (− 19%, − 105,700 ha) and potatoes (− 28%, − 4000 ha) have paved the way for emergent crops like faba beans (increase in area from 58 to 14,800 ha), peas (from 5700 to 13,400 ha), caraway (from 1900 to 18,400 ha) and spring oilseed rape (from 700 to 27,800 ha). Expansion per se was primarily enabled by climate warming, but success requires well-adapted cultivars, existing or emerging markets and industries or exports as well as motivating prices, policy support and valued ecosystem services.