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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2021-05-12
    Description: Producing probabilistic subseasonal forecasts of extreme events up to six weeks in advance is crucial for many economic sectors. In agribusiness, this time scale is particularly critical because it allows for mitigation strategies to be adopted for counteracting weather hazards and taking advantage of opportunities. For example, spring frosts are detrimental for many nut trees, resulting in dramatic losses at harvest time. To explore subseasonal forecast quality in boreal spring, identified as one of the most sensitive times of the year by agribusiness end users, we build a multisystem ensemble using four models involved in the Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction project (S2S). Two-meter temperature forecasts are used to analyze cold spell predictions in the coastal Black Sea region, an area that is a global leader in the production of hazelnuts. When analyzed at the global scale, the multisystem ensemble probabilistic forecasts for near-surface temperature are better than climatological values for several regions, especially the tropics, even many weeks in advance; however, in the coastal Black Sea, skill is low after the second forecast week. When cold spells are predicted instead of near-surface temperatures, skill improves for the region, and the forecasts prove to contain potentially useful information to stakeholders willing to put mitigation plans into effect. Using a cost–loss model approach for the first time in this context, we show that there is added value of having such a forecast system instead of a business-as-usual strategy, not only for predictions released 1–2 weeks ahead of the extreme event, but also at longer lead times.
    Description: Published
    Description: 237–254
    Description: 4A. Oceanografia e clima
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2020-07-13
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2020-08-24
    Description: The effect of freshwater sources on wintertime sea-ice CO2 processes was studied from the glacier front to the outer Tempelfjorden, Svalbard, in sea ice, glacier ice, brine and snow. March–April 2012 was mild, and the fjord was mainly covered with drift ice, in contrast to the observed thicker fast ice in the colder April 2013. This resulted in different physical and chemical properties of the sea ice and under-ice water. Data from stable oxygen isotopic ratios and salinity showed that the sea ice at the glacier front in April 2012 contained on average 54% of frozen-in glacial meltwater. This was five times higher than in April 2013, where the ice was frozen seawater. In April 2012, the largest excess of sea-ice total alkalinity (AT), carbonate ion ([CO32−]) and bicarbonate ion concentrations ([HCO3−]) relative to salinity was mainly related to dissolved dolomite and calcite incorporated during freezing of mineral-enriched glacial water. In April 2013, the excess of these variables was mainly due to ikaite dissolution as a result of sea-ice processes. Dolomite dissolution increased sea-ice AT twice as much as ikaite and calcite dissolution, implying different buffering capacity and potential for ocean CO2 uptake in a changing climate.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2020-09-24
    Description: Radiocarbon (14C) ages cannot provide absolutely dated chronologies for archaeological or paleoenvironmental studies directly but must be converted to calendar age equivalents using a calibration curve compensating for fluctuations in atmospheric 14C concentration. Although calibration curves are constructed from independently dated archives, they invariably require revision as new data become available and our understanding of the Earth system improves. In this volume the international 14C calibration curves for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, as well as for the ocean surface layer, have been updated to include a wealth of new data and extended to 55,000 cal BP. Based on tree rings, IntCal20 now extends as a fully atmospheric record to ca. 13,900 cal BP. For the older part of the timescale, IntCal20 comprises statistically integrated evidence from floating tree-ring chronologies, lacustrine and marine sediments, speleothems, and corals. We utilized improved evaluation of the timescales and location variable 14C offsets from the atmosphere (reservoir age, dead carbon fraction) for each dataset. New statistical methods have refined the structure of the calibration curves while maintaining a robust treatment of uncertainties in the 14C ages, the calendar ages and other corrections. The inclusion of modeled marine reservoir ages derived from a three-dimensional ocean circulation model has allowed us to apply more appropriate reservoir corrections to the marine 14C data rather than the previous use of constant regional offsets from the atmosphere. Here we provide an overview of the new and revised datasets and the associated methods used for the construction of the IntCal20 curve and explore potential regional offsets for tree-ring data. We discuss the main differences with respect to the previous calibration curve, IntCal13, and some of the implications for archaeology and geosciences ranging from the recent past to the time of the extinction of the Neanderthals.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 5
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    Cambridge University Press
    In:  EPIC3Life in extreme environments - Insights in biological capability, Ecological Reviews, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 16 p., pp. 218-233, ISBN: 978-1-108-72420-3
    Publication Date: 2020-10-05
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2020-09-21
    Description: Streams and rivers are important components of the carbon cycle as they transport and transform dissolved organic matter (DOM). Using high‐resolution Fourier‐transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry, we studied the spatial distribution of DOM at the molecular level at more than 100 sites across a stream network during summer and winter baseflow. We developed a model approximating the time DOM spent in the fluvial network, a key constraint on the biogeochemical processing of DOM. Discharge‐weighted travel time explained the compositional changes of DOM, which differed markedly in summer and winter. We attribute these seasonal differences to variation in source material, putatively reflecting the dynamics of freshly produced DOM in summer and DOM with an imprint of leaf litter in winter. Hydrological mixing was an important driver of the spatial dynamics of DOM. From the convergence rate of DOM compound intensities to the network‐wide average, we inferred the spatial distribution of sources within the catchment. Finally, we estimated network‐wide apparent mass transfer coefficients (vf app) of individual DOM compounds, which describe the vertical velocity at which DOM compounds are removed by biotic and abiotic processes. We identified the oxidative state of carbon as an important factor explaining vf app, which we consequently attribute to biological uptake of thermodynamically favorable DOM compounds. This work contributes to our understanding of the spatial processes, temporal constraints, and chemical properties of DOM that regulate the transformation and diagenesis of DOM at the fluvial network scale.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 7
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    Cambridge University Press
    In:  EPIC3Environmental Conservation, Cambridge University Press, pp. 1-6, ISSN: 0376-8929
    Publication Date: 2021-01-20
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 8
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    Cambridge University Press
    In:  EPIC3Radiocarbon, Cambridge University Press, 62(4), pp. 865-871, ISSN: 0033-8222
    Publication Date: 2020-09-24
    Description: Beyond ~13.9 cal kBP, the IntCal20 radiocarbon (14C) calibration curve is based upon combining data across a range of different archives including corals and planktic foraminifera. In order to reliably incorporate such marine data into an atmospheric curve, we need to resolve these records into their constituent atmospheric signal and marine reservoir age. We present results of marine reservoir age simulations enabling this resolution, applying the LSG ocean general circulation model forced with various climatic background conditions and with atmospheric radiocarbon changes according to the Hulu Cave speleothem record. Simulating the spatiotemporal evolution of reservoir ages between 54,000 and 10,700 cal BP, we find reservoir ages between 500 and 1400 yr in the low- and mid-latitudes, but also more than 3000 yr in the polar seas. Our results are broadly in agreement with available marine radiocarbon reconstructions, with the caveat that continental margins, marginal seas, or tropical lagoons are not properly resolved in our coarse-resolution model.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2020-09-24
    Description: The concentration of radiocarbon (14C) differs between ocean and atmosphere. Radiocarbon determinations from samples which obtained their 14C in the marine environment therefore need a marine-specific calibration curve and cannot be calibrated directly against the atmospheric-based IntCal20 curve. This paper presents Marine20, an update to the internationally agreed marine radiocarbon age calibration curve that provides a non-polar global-average marine record of radiocarbon from 0–55 cal kBP and serves as a baseline for regional oceanic variation. Marine20 is intended for calibration of marine radiocarbon samples from non-polar regions; it is not suitable for calibration in polar regions where variability in sea ice extent, ocean upwelling and air-sea gas exchange may have caused larger changes to concentrations of marine radiocarbon. The Marine20 curve is based upon 500 simulations with an ocean/atmosphere/biosphere box-model of the global carbon cycle that has been forced by posterior realizations of our Northern Hemispheric atmospheric IntCal20 14C curve and reconstructed changes in CO2 obtained from ice core data. These forcings enable us to incorporate carbon cycle dynamics and temporal changes in the atmospheric 14C level. The box-model simulations of the global-average marine radiocarbon reservoir age are similar to those of a more complex three-dimensional ocean general circulation model. However, simplicity and speed of the box model allow us to use a Monte Carlo approach to rigorously propagate the uncertainty in both the historic concentration of atmospheric 14C and other key parameters of the carbon cycle through to our final Marine20 calibration curve. This robust propagation of uncertainty is fundamental to providing reliable precision for the radiocarbon age calibration of marine based samples. We make a first step towards deconvolving the contributions of different processes to the total uncertainty; discuss the main differences of Marine20 from the previous age calibration curve Marine13; and identify the limitations of our approach together with key areas for further work. The updated values for ΔR, the regional marine radiocarbon reservoir age corrections required to calibrate against Marine20, can be found at the data base http://calib.org/marine/.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 10
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    Cambridge University Press
    In:  EPIC3Polar Record, Cambridge University Press, 57(e12), pp. 1-6, ISSN: 0032-2474
    Publication Date: 2021-04-15
    Description: The distribution, density and percentage contribution of pack ice seals during ship-board censuses in the marginal sea ice zone beyond the Lazarev Sea in spring 2019 are presented. Adult/juvenile crabeater seals (n = 19), leopard seals (n = 3) and Ross seals (n = 10) were sighted during 582.2 nm of censuses along the ship’s track line in the area bounded by 00°00’–22°E and 56°–60°S. Antarctic fur seals (n = 21) were only encountered on the outer fringes of the pack ice, and Weddell seals were absent due to their primary use of fast ice and inner pack ice habitats close to the coast. Crabeater seal sightings included juveniles (n = 2) and another four groups of 2–3 unclassified crabeater seals, singletons (n = 5), single mothers with pups (n = 3) and a family group (n = 1 triad). Only one leopard seal attended a pup, while no Ross seal pups were located. The survey was likely of insufficient effort, in both extent (north of 60°S) and duration (18 days), to locate seals in considerable numbers this early (late October/early November) in their austral spring breeding season.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 11
    Publication Date: 2020-05-27
    Description: Volcanism and metamorphism are the principal geologic processes that drive carbon transfer from the interior of Earth to the surface reservoir.1–4 Input of carbon to the surface reservoir through volcanic degassing is balanced by removal through silicate weathering and the subduction of carbon-bearing marine deposits over million-year timescales. The magnitude of the volcanic carbon flux is thus of fundamental importance for stabilization of atmospheric CO2 and for long-term climate. It is likely that the “deep” carbon reservoir far exceeds the size of the surface reservoir in terms of mass;5,6 more than 99%of Earth’s carbon may reside in the core, mantle, and crust. The relatively high flux of volcanic carbon to the surface reservoir, combined with the reservoir’s small size, results in a short residence time for carbon in the ocean–atmosphere–biosphere system (~200 ka).7 The implication is that changes in the flux of volcanic carbon can affect the climate and ultimately the habitability of the planet on geologic timescales. In order to understand this delicate balance, we must first quantify the current volcanic flux of carbon to the atmosphere and understand the factors that control this flux.
    Description: Published
    Description: 188-236
    Description: 3V. Proprietà chimico-fisiche dei magmi e dei prodotti vulcanici
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: book chapter
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  • 12
    Publication Date: 2021-01-27
    Description: © The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Reimer, P. J., Austin, W. E. N., Bard, E., Bayliss, A., Blackwell, P. G., Ramsey, C. B., Butzin, M., Cheng, H., Edwards, R. L., Friedrich, M., Grootes, P. M., Guilderson, T. P., Hajdas, I., Heaton, T. J., Hogg, A. G., Hughen, K. A., Kromer, B., Manning, S. W., Muscheler, R., Palmer, J. G., Pearson, C., van der Plicht, J., Reimer, R. W., Richards, D. A., Scott, E. M., Southon, J. R., Turney, C. S. M., Wacker, L., Adolphi, F., Buentgen, U., Capano, M., Fahrni, S. M., Fogtmann-Schulz, A., Friedrich, R., Koehler, P., Kudsk, S., Miyake, F., Olsen, J., Reinig, F., Sakamoto, M., Sookdeo, A., & Talamo, S. The Intcal20 Northern Hemisphere radiocarbon age calibration curve (0-55 cal kBP). Radiocarbon, 62(4), (2020): 725-757, doi:10.1017/RDC.2020.41.
    Description: Radiocarbon (14C) ages cannot provide absolutely dated chronologies for archaeological or paleoenvironmental studies directly but must be converted to calendar age equivalents using a calibration curve compensating for fluctuations in atmospheric 14C concentration. Although calibration curves are constructed from independently dated archives, they invariably require revision as new data become available and our understanding of the Earth system improves. In this volume the international 14C calibration curves for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, as well as for the ocean surface layer, have been updated to include a wealth of new data and extended to 55,000 cal BP. Based on tree rings, IntCal20 now extends as a fully atmospheric record to ca. 13,900 cal BP. For the older part of the timescale, IntCal20 comprises statistically integrated evidence from floating tree-ring chronologies, lacustrine and marine sediments, speleothems, and corals. We utilized improved evaluation of the timescales and location variable 14C offsets from the atmosphere (reservoir age, dead carbon fraction) for each dataset. New statistical methods have refined the structure of the calibration curves while maintaining a robust treatment of uncertainties in the 14C ages, the calendar ages and other corrections. The inclusion of modeled marine reservoir ages derived from a three-dimensional ocean circulation model has allowed us to apply more appropriate reservoir corrections to the marine 14C data rather than the previous use of constant regional offsets from the atmosphere. Here we provide an overview of the new and revised datasets and the associated methods used for the construction of the IntCal20 curve and explore potential regional offsets for tree-ring data. We discuss the main differences with respect to the previous calibration curve, IntCal13, and some of the implications for archaeology and geosciences ranging from the recent past to the time of the extinction of the Neanderthals.
    Description: We would like to thank the National Natural Science Foundation of China grants NSFC 41888101 and NSFC 41731174, the 111 program of China (D19002), U.S. NSF Grant 1702816, and the Malcolm H. Wiener Foundation for support for research that contributed to the IntCal20 curve. The work on the Swiss and German YD trees was funded by the German Science foundation and the Swiss National Foundation (grant number: 200021L_157187). The operation in Aix-en-Provence is funded by the EQUIPEX ASTER-CEREGE, the Collège de France and the ANR project CARBOTRYDH (to EB). The work on the correlation of tree ring 14C with ice core 10Be was partially supported by the Swedish Research Council and the Knut and Alice Wallenberg foundation. M. Butzin was supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) as Research for Sustainable Development (FONA; http://www.fona.de) through the PalMod project (grant number: 01LP1505B). S. Talamo and M. Friedrich are funded by the European Research Council under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme (grant agreement No. 803147-RESOLUTION, awarded to ST). CA. Turney would like to acknowledge support of the Australian Research Council (FL100100195 and DP170104665). P. Reimer and W. Austin acknowledge the support of the UKRI Natural Environment Research Council (Grant NE/M004619/1). T.J. Heaton is supported by a Leverhulme Trust Fellowship RF-2019-140\9. Other datasets and the IntCal20 database were created without external support through internal funding by the respective laboratories. We also would like to thank various institutions that provided funding or facilities for meetings.
    Keywords: calibration curve ; radiocarbon ; IntCal20
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 13
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    Cambridge University Press | New York
    In:  http://aquaticcommons.org/id/eprint/2263 | 403 | 2015-04-28 21:06:50 | 2263
    Publication Date: 2021-07-12
    Description: Executive Summary:Observations show that warming of the climate is unequivocal. The global warming observed over the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. These emissions come mainly from theburning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas), with important contributions from the clearing of forests, agricultural practices, and other activities.Warming over this century is projected to be considerably greater than over the last century. The global average temperature since 1900 has risen by about 1.5ºF. By 2100, it is projected to rise another 2 to 11.5ºF. The U.S.average temperature has risen by a comparable amount and is very likely to rise more than the global average over this century, with some variation from place to place. Several factors will determine future temperature increases. Increases at the lower end of this range are more likely if global heat-trapping gas emissions are cut substantially. If emissions continue to rise at or near current rates, temperature increases are more likely to be near the upper end of the range. Volcanic eruptions or other natural variations could temporarily counteract some of the human-induced warming, slowing the rise in global temperature, but these effects would only last a few years.Reducing emissions of carbon dioxide would lessen warming over this century and beyond. Sizable early cuts in emissions would significantly reduce the pace and the overall amount of climate change. Earlier cuts in emissions would have a greater effect in reducing climate change than comparable reductions made later. In addition, reducing emissions of some shorter-lived heat-trapping gases, such as methane, and some types of particles, such as soot, would begin to reduce warming within weeks to decades.Climate-related changes have already been observed globally and in the United States. These include increases in air and water temperatures, reduced frost days, increased frequency and intensity of heavy downpours, a rise in sea level, and reduced snow cover, glaciers, permafrost, and seaice. A longer ice-free period on lakes and rivers, lengthening of the growing season, and increased water vapor in the atmosphere have also been observed. Over the past 30 years, temperatures have risen faster in winter than in any other season, with average winter temperatures in the Midwest and northern Great Plains increasing more than 7ºF. Some of the changes have been faster thanprevious assessments had suggested.These climate-related changes are expected to continue while new ones develop. Likely future changes for the United States and surrounding coastal waters include more intense hurricanes with related increases in wind, rain, and storm surges (but not necessarily an increase in the number of these storms that make landfall), as well as drier conditions in the Southwest and Caribbean. Thesechanges will affect human health, water supply, agriculture, coastal areas, and many other aspectsof society and the natural environment.This report synthesizes information from a wide variety of scientific assessments (see page 7) and recently published research to summarize what is known about the observed and projected consequences of climate change on the United States. It combines analysis of impacts on various sectors such as energy, water, and transportation at the national level with an assessment of key impacts on specific regions of the United States. For example, sea-level rise will increase risks of erosion, storm surge damage, and flooding for coastal communities, especially in the Southeast and parts of Alaska. Reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt will alter the timing and amount of water supplies, posingsignificant challenges for water resource managementin the West. (PDF contains 196 pages)
    Keywords: Conservation ; Management ; Pollution ; Earth Sciences ; Environment ; Policies
    Repository Name: AquaDocs
    Type: monograph
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  • 14
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    Cambridge University Press
    In:  EPIC3The Species–Area Relationship, The Species–Area Relationship, Cambridge University Press, pp. 438-456
    Publication Date: 2020-11-04
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 15
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    American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2020-03-16
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 33(4), (2020): 1535-1545, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0547.1.
    Description: In a transient warming scenario, the North Atlantic is influenced by a complex pattern of surface buoyancy flux changes that ultimately weaken the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Here we study the AMOC response in the CMIP5 experiment, using the near-geostrophic balance of the AMOC on interannual time scales to identify the role of temperature and salinity changes in altering the circulation. The thermal wind relationship is used to quantify changes in the zonal density gradients that control the strength of the flow. At 40°N, where the overturning cell is at its strongest, weakening of the AMOC is largely driven by warming between 1000- and 2000-m depth along the western margin. Despite significant subpolar surface freshening, salinity changes are small in the deep branch of the circulation. This is likely due to the influence of anomalously salty water in the subpolar intermediate layers, which is carried northward from the subtropics in the upper limb of the AMOC. In the upper 1000 m at 40°N, salty anomalies due to increased evaporation largely cancel the buoyancy increase due to warming. Therefore, in CMIP5, temperature dynamics are responsible for AMOC weakening, while freshwater forcing instead acts to strengthen the circulation in the net. These results indicate that past modeling studies of AMOC weakening, which rely on freshwater hosing in the subpolar gyre, may not be directly applicable to a more complex warming scenario.
    Description: We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups (listed in Table 1 of this paper) for producing and making available their model output. We also thank John Marshall for helpful discussions on the driving mechanisms of the AMOC, and three anonymous reviewers whose comments greatly improved the manuscript. This work was supported by NASA Headquarters under the NASA Earth and Space Science Fellowship Program Award 80NSSC17K0372, and by National Science Foundation Award OCE-1433132.
    Description: 2020-07-20
    Keywords: North Atlantic Ocean ; Thermohaline circulation ; Water masses/storage ; Climate change ; Climate prediction ; Climate models
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 16
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, 35(23), pp. 7811-7831, ISSN: 0894-8755
    Publication Date: 2023-06-23
    Description: Numerical simulations allow us to gain a comprehensive understanding of the underlying mechanisms of past, present, and future climate changes. The mid-Holocene (MH) and the last interglacial (LIG) were the two most recent warm episodes of Earth’s climate history and are the focus of paleoclimate research. Here, we present results of MH and LIG simulations with two versions of the state-of-the-art Earth system model AWI-ESM. Most of the climate changes in MH and LIG compared to the preindustrial era are agreed upon by the two model versions, including 1) enhanced seasonality in surface temperature that is driven by the redistribution of seasonal insolation; 2) a northward shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and tropical rain belt; 3) a reduction in annual mean Arctic sea ice concentration; 4) weakening and northward displacement of the Northern Hemisphere Hadley circulation, which is related to the decrease and poleward shift of the temperature gradient from the subtropical to the equator in the Northern Hemisphere; 5) a westward shift of the Indo-Pacific Walker circulation due to anomalous warming over the Eurasia and North Africa during boreal summer; and 6) an expansion and intensification of Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon rainfall, with the latter being dominated by the dynamic component of moisture budget (i.e., the strengthening of wind circulation). However, the simulated responses of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in the two models yield different results for both the LIG and the MH. AMOC anomalies between the warm interglacial and preindustrial periods are associated with changes in North Atlantic westerly winds and stratification of the water column at the North Atlantic due to changes in ocean temperature, salinity, and density.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 17
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    Cambridge University Press
    In:  EPIC3https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/, Cambridge University Press, pp. 197-377
    Publication Date: 2023-04-17
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 18
    Publication Date: 2023-10-26
    Description: It has been recently proposed DeVito [(2019) On the meaning of Fermi's paradox. Futures, 389–414] that a minimal number of contacts with alien radio-communicative civilizations could be justified by their logarithmically slow rate of growth in the Galaxy. Here we further develop this approach to the Fermi paradox, with the purpose of expanding the ensemble of the possible styles of growth that are consistent with the hypothesis of a minimal number of contacts. Generalizing the approach in DeVito (2019), we show that a logarithmic style of growth is still found. We also find that a style of growth following a power law would be admissible, however characterized by an exponent less than one, hence describing a sublinear increase in the number of communicative civilizations, still qualitatively in agreement with DeVito (2019). No solutions are found indicating a superlinear increase in the number of communicative civilizations, following for example an exponentially diverging law, which would cause, in the long run, an unsustainable proliferation. Although largely speculative, our findings corroborate the idea that a sublinear rate of increase in the number of communicative civilizations in the Galaxy could constitute a further resolution of Fermi paradox, implying a constant and minimal – but not zero – number of contacts.
    Description: Published
    Description: 314-319
    Description: 1TR. Georisorse
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 19
    Publication Date: 2023-02-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 52(11), (2022): 2841–2852, https://doi.org/10.1175/jpo-d-22-0025.1.
    Description: Prediction of rapid intensification in tropical cyclones prior to landfall is a major societal issue. While air–sea interactions are clearly linked to storm intensity, the connections between the underlying thermal conditions over continental shelves and rapid intensification are limited. Here, an exceptional set of in situ and satellite data are used to identify spatial heterogeneity in sea surface temperatures across the inner core of Hurricane Sally (2020), a storm that rapidly intensified over the shelf. A leftward shift in the region of maximum cooling was observed as the hurricane transited from the open gulf to the shelf. This shift was generated, in part, by the surface heat flux in conjunction with the along- and across-shelf transport of heat from storm-generated coastal circulation. The spatial differences in the sea surface temperatures were large enough to potentially influence rapid intensification processes suggesting that coastal thermal features need to be accounted for to improve storm forecasting as well as to better understand how climate change will modify interactions between tropical cyclones and the coastal ocean.
    Description: This research was made possible by the NOAA RESTORE Science Program (NA17NOS4510101 and NA19NOS4510194) and the NASA Physical Oceanography program (80NSSC21K0553 and WBS 281945.02.25.04.67) and NOAA IOOS program via GCOOS (NA16NOS0120018). The authors declare that they have no competing interests.
    Keywords: Seas/gulfs/bays ; Atmosphere–ocean interaction ; Currents ; Tropical cyclones ; Buoy observations ; In situ oceanic observations
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 20
    Publication Date: 2023-02-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 52(8), (2022): 1797–1815, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-21-0288.1.
    Description: Intruding slope water is a major source of nutrients to sustain the high biological productivity in the Gulf of Maine (GoM). Slope water intrusion into the GoM is affected by Gulf Stream warm-core rings (WCRs) impinging onto the nearby shelf edge. This study combines long-term mooring measurements, satellite remote sensing data, an idealized numerical ocean model, and a linear coastal-trapped wave (CTW) model to examine the impact of WCRs on slope water intrusion into the GoM through the Northeast Channel. Analysis of satellite sea surface height and temperature data shows that the slope sea region off the GoM is a hotspot of ring activities. A significant linear relationship is found between interannual variations of ring activities in the slope sea region off the GoM and bottom salinity at the Northeast Channel, suggesting the importance of WCRs in modulating variability of intruding slope water. Analysis of the mooring data reveals enhanced slope water intrusion through bottom-intensified along-channel flow following impingements of WCRs on the nearby shelf edge. Numerical simulations qualitatively reproduce the observed WCR impingement processes and associated episodic enhancement of slope water intrusion in the Northeast Channel. Diagnosis of the model result indicates that baroclinic CTWs excited by the ring–topography interaction are responsible for the episodically intensified subsurface along-channel inflow, which carries more slope water into the GoM. A WCR that impinges onto the shelf edge to the northeast of the Northeast Channel tends to generate stronger CTWs and cause stronger enhancement of the slope water intrusion into the GoM.
    Description: This study is supported by the National Science Foundation through Grant OCE-1634965.
    Keywords: Continental shelf/slope ; Channel flows ; Mesoscale processes ; In situ oceanic observations ; Satellite observations ; Numerical analysis/modeling
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  • 21
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, pp. 1-40, ISSN: 0894-8755
    Publication Date: 2023-09-04
    Description: 〈jats:title〉Abstract〈/jats:title〉 〈jats:p〉Tipping points in the Earth system describe critical thresholds beyond which a single component, part of the system, or the system as a whole changes from one stable state to another. In the present-day Southern Ocean, the Weddell Sea constitutes an important dense-water formation site, associated with efficient deep-ocean carbon and oxygen transfer and low ice-shelf basal melt rates. Here, a regime shift will occur when continental shelves are continuously flushed with warm, oxygen-poor offshore waters from intermediate depth, leading to less efficient deep-ocean carbon and oxygen transfer and higher ice-shelf basal melt rates. We use a global ocean–biogeochemistry model including ice-shelf cavities and an eddy-permitting grid in the southern Weddell Sea to address the susceptibility of this region to such a system change for four 21〈jats:sup〉st〈/jats:sup〉-century emission scenarios. Assessing the projected changes in shelf–open ocean density gradients, bottom-water properties, and on-shelf heat transport, our results indicate that the Weddell Sea undergoes a regime shift by 2100 in the highest-emission scenario SSP5-8.5, but not yet in the lower-emission scenarios. The regime shift is imminent by 2100 in the scenarios SSP3-7.0 and SSP2-4.5, but avoidable under the lowest-emission scenario SSP1-2.6. While shelf-bottom waters freshen and acidify everywhere, bottom waters in the Filchner Trough undergo accelerated warming and deoxygenation following the system change, with implications for local ecosystems and ice-shelf basal melt. Additionally, deep-ocean carbon and oxygen transfer decline, implying that the local changes ultimately affect ocean circulation, climate, and ecosystems globally.〈/jats:p〉
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 22
    Publication Date: 2023-04-26
    Description: Mechanisms behind the phenomenon of Arctic amplification are widely discussed. To contribute to this debate, the (AC)3 project was established in 2016 (www.ac3-tr.de/). It comprises modeling and data analysis efforts as well as observational elements. The project has assembled a wealth of ground-based, airborne, shipborne, and satellite data of physical, chemical, and meteorological properties of the Arctic atmosphere, cryosphere, and upper ocean that are available for the Arctic climate research community. Short-term changes and indications of long-term trends in Arctic climate parameters have been detected using existing and new data. For example, a distinct atmospheric moistening, an increase of regional storm activities, an amplified winter warming in the Svalbard and North Pole regions, and a decrease of sea ice thickness in the Fram Strait and of snow depth on sea ice have been identified. A positive trend of tropospheric bromine monoxide (BrO) column densities during polar spring was verified. Local marine/biogenic sources for cloud condensation nuclei and ice nucleating particles were found. Atmospheric–ocean and radiative transfer models were advanced by applying new parameterizations of surface albedo, cloud droplet activation, convective plumes and related processes over leads, and turbulent transfer coefficients for stable surface layers. Four modes of the surface radiative energy budget were explored and reproduced by simulations. To advance the future synthesis of the results, cross-cutting activities are being developed aiming to answer key questions in four focus areas: lapse rate feedback, surface processes, Arctic mixed-phase clouds, and airmass transport and transformation.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 23
    Publication Date: 2023-01-27
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 52(8), (2022): 1705-1730, https://doi.org/10.1175/jpo-d-21-0243.1.
    Description: Formation and evolution of barrier layers (BLs) and associated temperature inversions (TIs) were investigated using a 1-yr time series of oceanic and air–sea surface observations from three moorings deployed in the eastern Pacific fresh pool. BL thickness and TI amplitude showed a seasonality with maxima in boreal summer and autumn when BLs were persistently present. Mixed layer salinity (MLS) and mixed layer temperature (MLT) budgets were constructed to investigate the formation mechanism of BLs and TIs. The MLS budget showed that BLs were initially formed in response to horizontal advection of freshwater in boreal summer and then primarily maintained by precipitation. The MLT budget revealed that penetration of shortwave radiation through the mixed layer base is the dominant contributor to TI formation through subsurface warming. Geostrophic advection is a secondary contributor to TI formation through surface cooling. When the BL exists, the cooling effect from entrainment and the warming effect from detrainment are both significantly reduced. In addition, when the BL is associated with the presence of a TI, entrainment works to warm the mixed layer. The presence of BLs makes the shallower mixed layer more sensitive to surface heat and freshwater fluxes, acting to enhance the formation of TIs that increase the subsurface warming via shortwave penetration.
    Description: SK is supported by JSPS Overseas Research Fellowships. JS and SK are supported by NASA Grant 80NSSC18K1500. JTF and the mooring deployment were funded by NASA Grants NNX15AG20G and 80NSSC18K1494. DZ is supported by NASA Grant 80NSSC18K1499. This publication is partially funded by the Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean, and Ecosystem Studies (CICOES) under NOAA Cooperative Agreement NA20OAR4320271, Contribution 2021-1152. This is PMEL Contribution 5268.
    Description: 2023-01-27
    Keywords: Ocean ; North Pacific Ocean ; Tropics ; Entrainment ; Oceanic mixed layer ; Salinity
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 24
    Publication Date: 2023-02-01
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 52(8), (2022): 1927-1943, https://doi.org/10.1175/jpo-d-21-0124.1.
    Description: The Galápagos Archipelago lies on the equator in the path of the eastward flowing Pacific Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC). When the EUC reaches the archipelago, it upwells and bifurcates into a north and south branch around the archipelago at a latitude determined by topography. Since the Coriolis parameter (f) equals zero at the equator, strong velocity gradients associated with the EUC can result in Ertel potential vorticity (Q) having sign opposite that of planetary vorticity near the equator. Observations collected by underwater gliders deployed just west of the Galápagos Archipelago during 2013–16 are used to estimate Q and to diagnose associated instabilities that may impact the Galápagos Cold Pool. Estimates of Q are qualitatively conserved along streamlines, consistent with the 2.5-layer, inertial model of the EUC by Pedlosky. The Q with sign opposite of f is advected south of the Galápagos Archipelago when the EUC core is located south of the bifurcation latitude. The horizontal gradient of Q suggests that the region between 2°S and 2°N above 100 m is barotropically unstable, while limited regions are baroclinically unstable. Conditions conducive to symmetric instability are observed between the EUC core and the equator and within the southern branch of the undercurrent. Using 2-month and 3-yr averages, e-folding time scales are 2–11 days, suggesting that symmetric instability can persist on those time scales.
    Description: This work was supported by the National Science Foundation (Grants OCE-1232971 and OCE-1233282), the NASA Earth and Space Science Fellowship Program (Grant 80NSSC17K0443), and the Global Ocean Monitoring and Observing Program of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NA13OAR4830216). Color maps are from Thyng et al. (2016).
    Description: 2023-02-01
    Keywords: Currents ; In situ oceanic observations ; Instability ; Mixing ; Ocean dynamics ; Pacific Ocean ; Potential vorticity ; Tropics
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  • 25
    Publication Date: 2023-02-01
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of the Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 39(8), (2022): 1183-1198, https://doi.org/10.1175/jtech-d-21-0068.1.
    Description: Horizontal kinematic properties, such as vorticity, divergence, and lateral strain rate, are estimated from drifter clusters using three approaches. At submesoscale horizontal length scales O(1–10)km, kinematic properties become as large as planetary vorticity f, but challenging to observe because they evolve on short time scales O(hourstodays). By simulating surface drifters in a model flow field, we quantify the sources of uncertainty in the kinematic property calculations due to the deformation of cluster shape. Uncertainties arise primarily due to (i) violation of the linear estimation methods and (ii) aliasing of unresolved scales. Systematic uncertainties (iii) due to GPS errors, are secondary but can become as large as (i) and (ii) when aspect ratios are small. Ideal cluster parameters (number of drifters, length scale, and aspect ratio) are determined and error functions estimated empirically and theoretically. The most robust method—a two-dimensional, linear least squares fit—is applied to the first few days of a drifter dataset from the Bay of Bengal. Application of the length scale and aspect-ratio criteria minimizes errors (i) and (ii), and reduces the total number of clusters and so computational cost. The drifter-estimated kinematic properties map out a cyclonic mesoscale eddy with a surface, submesoscale fronts at its perimeter. Our analyses suggest methodological guidance for computing the two-dimensional kinematic properties in submesoscale flows, given the recently increasing quantity and quality of drifter observations, while also highlighting challenges and limitations.
    Description: This research was supported by the Office of Naval Research (ONR) Departmental Research Initiative ASIRI under Grant N00014-13-1-0451 (SE and AM) and Grant N00014-13-1-0477 (VH and LC). The authors thank the captain and crew of the R/V Roger Revelle, and Andrew Lucas with the Multiscale Ocean Dynamics group at the Scripps Institution for Oceanography for providing the FastCTD data collected in 2015, which was supported by ONR Grant N00014-13-1-0489, as well as Eric D’Asaro for helpful discussions and Lance Braasch for assistance with the drifter dataset. AM and SE further thank NSF (Grant OCE-I434788) and ONR (Grant N00014-16-1-2470) for support. VH and LC were additionally supported by ONR Grants N00014-15-1-2286, N00014-14-1-0183, N00014-19-1-26-91 and NOAA Global Drifter Program (GDP) Grant NA15OAR4320071.
    Description: 2023-02-01
    Keywords: Indian Ocean ; Eddies ; Frontogenesis/frontolysis ; Fronts ; Lagrangian circulation/transport ; Ocean circulation ; Ocean dynamics
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  • 26
    Publication Date: 2023-02-01
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 35(17), (2022): 5465-5482, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-21-0671.1.
    Description: Understanding the contribution of ocean circulation to glacial–interglacial climate change is a major focus of paleoceanography. Specifically, many have tried to determine whether the volumes and depths of Antarctic- and North Atlantic–sourced waters in the deep ocean changed at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ∼22–18 kyr BP) when atmospheric pCO2 concentrations were 100 ppm lower than the preindustrial. Measurements of sedimentary geochemical proxies are the primary way that these deep ocean structural changes have been reconstructed. However, the main proxies used to reconstruct LGM Atlantic water mass geometry provide conflicting results as to whether North Atlantic–sourced waters shoaled during the LGM. Despite this, a number of idealized modeling studies have been advanced to describe the physical processes resulting in shoaled North Atlantic waters. This paper aims to critically assess the approaches used to determine LGM Atlantic circulation geometry and lay out best practices for future work. We first compile existing proxy data and paleoclimate model output to deduce the processes responsible for setting the ocean distributions of geochemical proxies in the LGM Atlantic Ocean. We highlight how small-scale mixing processes in the ocean interior can decouple tracer distributions from the large-scale circulation, complicating the straightforward interpretation of geochemical tracers as proxies for water mass structure. Finally, we outline promising paths toward ascertaining the LGM circulation structure more clearly and deeply.
    Description: S.K.H. was supported by the Investment in Science Fund at WHOI and the John E. and Anne W. Sawyer Endowed Fund in Support of Scientific Staff. F.J.P. was supported by a Stanback Postdoctoral Fellowship at Caltech.
    Description: 2023-02-01
    Keywords: Diapycnal mixing ; Meridional overturning circulation ; Ocean circulation
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  • 27
    Publication Date: 2023-02-17
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of the Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 39(10), (2022): 1525–1539, https://doi.org/10.1175/jtech-d-21-0186.1.
    Description: The static and dynamic performances of the RBRargo3 are investigated using a combination of laboratory-based and in situ datasets from floats deployed as part of an Argo pilot program. Temperature and pressure measurements compare well to co-located reference data acquired from shipboard CTDs. Static accuracy of salinity measurements is significantly improved using 1) a time lag for temperature, 2) a quadratic pressure dependence, and 3) a unit-based calibration for each RBRargo3 over its full pressure range. Long-term deployments show no significant drift in the RBRargo3 accuracy. The dynamic response of the RBRargo3 demonstrates the presence of two different adjustment time scales: a long-term adjustment O(120) s, driven by the temperature difference between the interior of the conductivity cell and the water, and a short-term adjustment O(5–10) s, associated to the initial exchange of heat between the water and the inner ceramic. Corrections for these effects, including dependence on profiling speed, are developed.
    Keywords: Data processing/distribution ; In situ oceanic observations ; Profilers ; Oceanic
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  • 28
    Publication Date: 2023-02-28
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 52(12),(2022): 3199-3219, https://doi.org/10.1175/jpo-d-22-0009.1.
    Description: The abyssal overturning circulation is thought to be primarily driven by small-scale turbulent mixing. Diagnosed water-mass transformations are dominated by rough topography “hotspots,” where the bottom enhancement of mixing causes the diffusive buoyancy flux to diverge, driving widespread downwelling in the interior—only to be overwhelmed by an even stronger upwelling in a thin bottom boundary layer (BBL). These water-mass transformations are significantly underestimated by one-dimensional (1D) sloping boundary layer solutions, suggesting the importance of three-dimensional physics. Here, we use a hierarchy of models to generalize this 1D boundary layer approach to three-dimensional eddying flows over realistically rough topography. When applied to the Mid-Atlantic Ridge in the Brazil Basin, the idealized simulation results are roughly consistent with available observations. Integral buoyancy budgets isolate the physical processes that contribute to realistically strong BBL upwelling. The downward diffusion of buoyancy is primarily balanced by upwelling along the sloping canyon sidewalls and the surrounding abyssal hills. These flows are strengthened by the restratifying effects of submesoscale baroclinic eddies and by the blocking of along-ridge thermal wind within the canyon. Major topographic sills block along-thalweg flows from restratifying the canyon trough, resulting in the continual erosion of the trough’s stratification. We propose simple modifications to the 1D boundary layer model that approximate each of these three-dimensional effects. These results provide local dynamical insights into mixing-driven abyssal overturning, but a complete theory will also require the nonlocal coupling to the basin-scale circulation.
    Description: We acknowledge funding support from National Science Foundation Awards 1536515, 1736109, and 2149080. This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship Program under Grant 174530.
    Description: 2023-05-18
    Keywords: Abyssal circulation ; Diapycnal mixing ; Meridional overturning circulation ; Topographic effects ; Upwelling/downwelling ; Bottom currents/bottom water
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  • 29
    Publication Date: 2023-02-28
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 52(6), (2022): 1091–1110, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-21-0068.1.
    Description: Hundreds of full-depth temperature and salinity profiles collected by Deepglider autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) in the North Atlantic reveal robust signals in eddy isopycnal vertical displacement and horizontal current throughout the entire water column. In separate glider missions southeast of Bermuda, subsurface-intensified cold, fresh coherent vortices were observed with velocities exceeding 20 cm s−1 at depths greater than 1000 m. With vertical resolution on the order of 20 m or less, these full-depth glider slant profiles newly permit estimation of scaled vertical wavenumber spectra from the barotropic through the 40th baroclinic mode. Geostrophic turbulence theory predictions of spectral slopes associated with the forward enstrophy cascade and proportional to inverse wavenumber cubed generally agree with glider-derived quasi-universal spectra of potential and kinetic energy found at a variety of locations distinguished by a wide range of mean surface eddy kinetic energy. Water-column average spectral estimates merge at high vertical mode number to established descriptions of internal wave spectra. Among glider mission sites, geographic and seasonal variability implicate bottom drag as a mechanism for dissipation, but also the need for more persistent sampling of the deep ocean.
    Description: This work was funded by NSF Grant 1736217 and would not have been possible without the help of Kirk O’Donnell, James Bennett, Noel Pelland, and all contributors to Deepglider development. We additionally thank the captain crew of the R/V Atlantic Explorer and the BATS team at the Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences, particularly Rod Johnson, as well as Seakeepers International for their professionalism, capability, and generous assistance in deploying and recovering gliders.
    Keywords: North Atlantic Ocean ; Eddies ; Mesoscale processes ; Turbulence ; Energy transport ; In situ oceanic observations ; Oceanic variability
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  • 30
    Publication Date: 2023-02-28
    Description: © The Author(s), 2023. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Timmermans, M.-L., & Toole, J. The Arctic Ocean’s Beaufort Gyre. Annual Review of Marine Science, 15(1), (2023): 223-248, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-032122-012034.
    Description: The Arctic Ocean's Beaufort Gyre is a dominant feature of the Arctic system, a prominent indicator of climate change, and possibly a control factor for high-latitude climate. The state of knowledge of the wind-driven Beaufort Gyre is reviewed here, including its forcing, relationship to sea-ice cover, source waters, circulation, and energetics. Recent decades have seen pronounced change in all elements of the Beaufort Gyre system. Sea-ice losses have accompanied an intensification of the gyre circulation and increasing heat and freshwater content. Present understanding of these changes is evaluated, and time series of heat and freshwater content are updated to include the most recent observations.
    Description: Support was provided by the National Science Foundation Office of Polar Programs and the Office of Naval Research.
    Keywords: Arctic Ocean ; Beaufort Gyre ; Circulation ; Sea ice ; Freshwater ; Ocean heat content
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  • 31
    Publication Date: 2023-03-02
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 52(12), (2022): 3221–3240, https://doi.org/10.1175/jpo-d-22-0010.1.
    Description: Small-scale mixing drives the diabatic upwelling that closes the abyssal ocean overturning circulation. Indirect microstructure measurements of in situ turbulence suggest that mixing is bottom enhanced over rough topography, implying downwelling in the interior and stronger upwelling in a sloping bottom boundary layer. Tracer release experiments (TREs), in which inert tracers are purposefully released and their dispersion is surveyed over time, have been used to independently infer turbulent diffusivities—but typically provide estimates in excess of microstructure ones. In an attempt to reconcile these differences, Ruan and Ferrari derived exact tracer-weighted buoyancy moment diagnostics, which we here apply to quasi-realistic simulations. A tracer’s diapycnal displacement rate is exactly twice the tracer-averaged buoyancy velocity, itself a convolution of an asymmetric upwelling/downwelling dipole. The tracer’s diapycnal spreading rate, however, involves both the expected positive contribution from the tracer-averaged in situ diffusion as well as an additional nonlinear diapycnal distortion term, which is caused by correlations between buoyancy and the buoyancy velocity, and can be of either sign. Distortion is generally positive (stretching) due to bottom-enhanced mixing in the stratified interior but negative (contraction) near the bottom. Our simulations suggest that these two effects coincidentally cancel for the Brazil Basin Tracer Release Experiment, resulting in negligible net distortion. By contrast, near-bottom tracers experience leading-order distortion that varies in time. Errors in tracer moments due to realistically sparse sampling are generally small (〈20%), especially compared to the O(1) structural errors due to the omission of distortion effects in inverse models. These results suggest that TREs, although indispensable, should not be treated as “unambiguous” constraints on diapycnal mixing.
    Description: We acknowledge funding support from National Science Foundation Awards 1536515 and 1736109. This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship Program under Grant 174530. This research is also supported by the NOAA Climate and Global Change Postdoctoral Fellowship Program, administered by UCAR’s Cooperative Programs for the Advancement of Earth System Science (CPAESS) under Award NA18NWS4620043B.
    Description: 2023-05-18
    Keywords: Diapycnal mixing ; Diffusion ; Upwelling/downwelling ; Bottom currents/bottom water ; Tracers
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  • 32
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    Annual Reviews
    In:  EPIC3Annual Review of Marine Science, Annual Reviews, 16(1), pp. 417-441, ISSN: 1941-1405
    Publication Date: 2024-03-01
    Description: The genus Phaeocystis is globally distributed, with blooms commonly occurring on continental shelves. This unusual phytoplankter has two major morphologies: solitary cells and cells embedded in a gelatinous matrix. Only colonies form blooms. Their large size (commonly 2 mm but up to 3 cm) and mucilaginous envelope allow the colonies to escape predation, but data are inconsistent as to whether colonies are grazed. Cultured Phaeocystis can also inhibit the growth of co-occurring phytoplankton or the feeding of potential grazers. Colonies and solitary cells use nitrate as a nitrogen source, although solitary cells can also grow on ammonium. Phaeocystis colonies might be a major contributor to carbon flux to depth, but in most cases, colonies are rapidly remineralized in the upper 300 m. The occurrence of large Phaeocystis blooms is often associated with environments with low and highly variable light and high nitrate levels, with Phaeocystis antarctica blooms being linked additionally to high iron availability. Emerging results indicate that different clones of Phaeocystis have substantial genetic plasticity, which may explain its appearance in a variety of environments. Given the evidence of Phaeocystis appearing in new systems, this trend will likely continue in the near future.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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    Wiley-Blackwell
    In:  EPIC3Reviews in Aquaculture, Wiley-Blackwell, ISSN: 1753-5123
    Publication Date: 2024-05-06
    Description: Mass mortality events (MMEs) are defined as the death of large numbers of fish over a short period of time. These events can result in catastrophic losses to the Atlantic salmon aquaculture industry and the local economy. However, they are challenging to understand because of their relative infrequency and the high number of potential factors involved. As a result, the causes and consequences of MMEs in Atlantic salmon aquaculture are not well understood. In this study, we developed a structural network of causal risk factors for MMEs for aquaculture and the communities that depend on Atlantic salmon aquaculture. Using the Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) technique, we analysed the causes of Atlantic salmon mass mortalities due to environmental (abiotic), biological (biotic) and nutritional risk factors. The consequences of MMEs were also assessed for the occupational health and safety of aquaculture workers and their implications for the livelihoods of local communities. This structural network deepens our understanding of MMEs and points to management actions and interventions that can help mitigate mass mortalities. MMEs are typically not the result of a single risk factor but are caused by the systematic interaction of risk factors related to the environment, fish diseases, feeding/nutrition and cage-site management. Results also indicate that considerations of health and safety risk, through pre- and post-event risk assessments, may help to minimize workplace injuries and eliminate potential risks of human fatalities. Company and government assisted socio-economic measures could help mitigate post-mass mortality impacts. Appropriate and timely management actions may help reduce MMEs at Atlantic salmon cage sites and minimize the physical and social vulnerabilities of workers and local communities.
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  • 34
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Physical Oceanography, American Meteorological Society, 54(4), pp. 1003-1018, ISSN: 0022-3670
    Publication Date: 2024-04-25
    Description: Coastal upwelling, driven by alongshore winds and characterized by cold sea surface temperatures and high upper-ocean nutrient content, is an important physical process sustaining some of the oceans’ most productive ecosystems. To fully understand the ocean properties in eastern boundary upwelling systems, it is important to consider the depth of the source waters being upwelled, as it affects both the SST and the transport of nutrients toward the surface. Here, we construct an upwelling source depth distribution for parcels at the surface in the upwelling zone. We do so using passive tracers forced at the domain boundary for every model depth level to quantify their contributions to the upwelled waters. We test the dependence of this distribution on the strength of the wind stress and stratification using high-resolution regional ocean simulations of an idealized coastal upwelling system. We also present an efficient method for estimating the mean upwelling source depth. Furthermore, we show that the standard deviation of the upwelling source depth distribution increases with increasing wind stress and decreases with increasing stratification. These results can be applied to better understand and predict how coastal upwelling sites and their surface properties have and will change in past and future climates.
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  • 35
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, 37(6), pp. 2059-2080, ISSN: 0894-8755
    Publication Date: 2024-04-22
    Description: Heat stress is projected to intensify with global warming, causing significant socioeconomic impacts and threatening human health. Wet-bulb temperature (WBT), which combines temperature and humidity effects, is a useful indicator for assessing regional and global heat stress variability and trends. However, the variations of European WBT and their underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Using observations and reanalysis datasets, we demonstrate a remarkable warming of summer WBT during the period 1958–2021 over Europe. Specifically, the European summer WBT has increased by over 1.08C in the past 64 years. We find that the increase in European summer WBT is driven by both near-surface warming temperatures and increasing atmospheric moisture content. We identify four dominant modes of European summer WBT variability and investigate their linkage with the large-scale atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature anomalies. The first two leading modes of the European WBT variability exhibit prominent interdecadal to long-term variations, mainly driven by a circumglobal wave train and concurrent sea surface temperature variations. The last two leading modes of European WBT variability mainly show interannual variations, indicating a direct and rapid response to large-scale atmospheric dynamics and nearby sea surface temperature variations. Further analysis shows the role of global warming and changes in midlatitude circulations in the variations of summer WBT. Our findings can enhance the understanding of plausible drivers of heat stress in Europe and provide valuable insights for regional decision-makers and climate adaptation planning.
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  • 36
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    Cambridge University Press
    In:  EPIC3Climate Change 2022: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of the WGII to the 6th assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, IPCC AR WGII, Cambridge University Press
    Publication Date: 2024-04-30
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 37
    Publication Date: 2024-01-31
    Description: The response of permafrost to submergence can vary between ice-rich late Pleistocene deposits and the thermokarst basins that thawed out during the Holocene. We hypothesize that inundated Alases offshore thaw faster than submerged Yedoma. To test this hypothesis, we estimated depths to the top of ice-bearing permafrost offshore of the Bykovsky Peninsula in northeast Siberia using electrical resistivity surveys. The surveys traversed submerged lagoon deposits, drained and refrozen Alas deposits, and undisturbed Yedoma from the coastline to 373 m offshore. While the permafrost degradation rates of the submerged Yedoma were in the range of similar sites, the submerged Alas permafrost degradation rates were up to 170% faster. Given the abundance of thermokarst basins and lakes along parts of the Arctic coastline, its effect on subsea permafrost degradation must be similarly prevalent. Remote sensing analyses suggest that 54% of lagoons wider than 500 m originated in thermokarst basins.
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  • 38
    Publication Date: 2024-01-31
    Description: Permafrost thaw leads to thermokarst lake formation and talik growth tens of meters deep, enabling microbial decomposition of formerly frozen organic matter (OM). We analyzed two 17-m-long thermokarst lake sediment cores taken in Central Yakutia, Russia. One core was from an Alas lake in a Holocene thermokarst basin that underwent multiple lake generations, and the second core from a young Yedoma upland lake (formed ca. 70 years ago) whose sediments have thawed for the first time since deposition. This comparison provides a glance into OM fate in thawing Yedoma deposits. We analyzed total organic carbon (TOC) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) content, n-alkanes concentrations, and bacterial and archaeal membrane markers. Furthermore, we conducted one-year-long incubations (4 °C, dark) and measured anaerobic carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) production. The sediments from both cores contained little TOC (0.7±0.4 wt%), but DOC values were relatively high, with highest values in the frozen Yedoma lake sediments (1620 mg L-1). Cumulative GHG production after one year was highest in the Yedoma lake sediments (226±212 μg CO2-C gdw-1, 28±36 μg CH4-C gdw-1) and 3 and 1.5 times lower in the Alas lake sediments, respectively (75±76 μg CO2-C gdw-1, 19±29 μg CH4-C gdw-1). The highest CO2 production in the frozen Yedoma lake sediments likely results from decomposition of readily bioavailable OM, while highest CH4 production in the non-frozen top sediments of this core suggests that methanogenic communities established upon thaw. The lower GHG production in the non-frozen Alas lake sediments resulted from advanced OM decomposition during Holocene talik development. Furthermore, we found that drivers of CO2 and CH4 production differ following thaw. Our results suggest that GHG production from TOC-poor mineral deposits, which are widespread throughout the Arctic, can be substantial. Therefore, our novel data are relevant for vast ice-rich permafrost deposits vulnerable to thermokarst formation.
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  • 39
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    Wiley-Blackwell
    In:  EPIC3Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, Wiley-Blackwell, 32(1), pp. 59-75, ISSN: 1045-6740
    Publication Date: 2024-01-31
    Description: Thermal erosion is a major mechanism of permafrost degradation, resulting in characteristic landforms. We inventory thermo-erosional valleys in ice-rich coastal lowlands adjacent to the Siberian Laptev Sea based on remote sensing, Geographic Information System (GIS), and field investigations for a first regional assessment of their spatial distribution and characteristics. Three study areas with similar geological (Yedoma Ice Complex) but diverse geomorphological conditions vary in valley areal extent, incision depth, and branching geometry. The most extensive valley networks are incised deeply (up to 35 m) into the broad inclined lowland around Mamontov Klyk. The flat, low-lying plain forming the Buor Khaya Peninsula is more degraded by thermokarst and characterized by long valleys of lower depth with short tributaries. Small, isolated Yedoma Ice Complex remnants in the Lena River Delta predominantly exhibit shorter but deep valleys. Based on these hydrographical network and topography assessments, we discuss geomorphological and hydrological connections to erosion processes. Relative catchment size along with regional slope interact with other Holocene relief-forming processes such as thermokarst and neotectonics. Our findings suggest that thermo-erosional valleys are prominent, hitherto overlooked permafrost degradation landforms that add to impacts on biogeochemical cycling, sediment transport, and hydrology in the degrading Siberian Yedoma Ice Complex.
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  • 40
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    Annual Reviews
    In:  EPIC3Annual Review of Marine Science, Annual Reviews, 16(1), pp. 513-536, ISSN: 1941-1405
    Publication Date: 2024-01-31
    Description: 〈jats:p〉 For decades, multiple-driver/stressor research has examined interactions among drivers that will undergo large changes in the future: temperature, pH, nutrients, oxygen, pathogens, and more. However, the most commonly used experimental designs—present-versus-future and ANOVA—fail to contribute to general understanding or predictive power. Linking experimental design to process-based mathematical models would help us predict how ecosystems will behave in novel environmental conditions. We review a range of experimental designs and assess the best experimental path toward a predictive ecology. Full factorial response surface, fractional factorial, quadratic response surface, custom, space-filling, and especially optimal and sequential/adaptive designs can help us achieve more valuable scientific goals. Experiments using these designs are challenging to perform with long-lived organisms or at the community and ecosystem levels. But they remain our most promising path toward linking experiments and theory in multiple-driver research and making accurate, useful predictions. 〈/jats:p〉
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  • 41
    Publication Date: 2024-03-22
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 42
    Publication Date: 2024-04-05
    Description: Seismic Rayleigh wave ellipticity measurements are the horizontal-to-vertical ratio of the Rayleigh wave particle motion, and are sensitive to the subsurface structure beneath a seismic station. H/V ratios measured from the ambient vibrations of the Earth are being increasingly used in glaciological applications to determine glacier and ice sheet thickness, seismic velocities and firn properties. Using the newly developed degree-of-polarisation (DOP-E) method which exploits the polarisation properties of seismic noise, we identify and extract Rayleigh waves from seismic stations in Greenland, and relate them to sea ice processes and the geology of the upper crust. Finally, we provide some suggestions for future applications of DOP-E method to gain greater insight into seasonal and long-term variability of sea ice formation and breakup as well as the monitoring of ice sheet thickness, subglacial environment and firn layers in the poles.
    Description: Published
    Description: 3-7
    Description: OST1 Alla ricerca dei Motori Geodinamici
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 43
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    Annual Reviews
    In:  EPIC3Annual Review of Marine Science, Annual Reviews, 15(1), pp. 509-538, ISSN: 1941-1405
    Publication Date: 2024-05-10
    Description: The regular movements of waves and tides are obvious representations of the oceans’ rhythmicity. But the rhythms of marine life span across ecological niches and timescales, including short (in the range of hours) and long (in the range of days and months) periods. These rhythms regulate the physiology and behavior of individuals, as well as their interactions with each other and with the environment. This review highlights examples of rhythmicity in marine animals and algae that represent important groups of marine life across different habitats. The examples cover ecologically highly relevant species and a growing number of laboratory model systems that are used to disentangle key mechanistic principles. The review introduces fundamental concepts of chronobiology, such as the distinction between rhythmic and endogenous oscillator–driven processes. It also addresses the relevance of studying diverse rhythms and oscillators, as well as their interconnection, for making better predictions of how species will respond to environmental perturbations, including climate change. As the review aims to address scientists from the diverse fields of marine biology, ecology, and molecular chronobiology, all of which have their own scientific terms, we provide definitions of key terms throughout the article.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 44
    Publication Date: 2024-06-13
    Description: All Rights Reserved
    Description: Predicting coastal change depends upon our knowledge of postglacial relative sea-level variability, partly controlled by glacio-isostatic responses to ice-sheet melting. Here, we reconstruct the postglacial relative sea-level changes along the Caribbean and Pacific coasts of northwestern South America by numerically solving the sea-level equation with two scenarios of mantle viscosity: global standard average and high viscosity. Our results with the standard model (applicable to the Pacific coast) agree with earlier studies by indicating a mid-Northgrippian high stand of ~2 m. The high-viscosity simulation (relevant to the Caribbean coast) shows that the transition from far- to intermediate-field influence of the Laurentide Ice Sheet occurs between Manzanillo del Mar and the Gulf of Morrosquillo. South of this location, the Colombian Caribbean coast has exhibited a still stand with a nearly constant Holocene relative sea level. By analyzing our simulations considering sea-level indicators, we argue that tectonics is more prominent than previously assumed, especially along the Caribbean coast. This influence prevents a simplified view of regional relative sea-level changes on the northwestern South American coast.
    Description: Published
    Description: 28-43
    Description: OSA4: Ambiente marino, fascia costiera ed Oceanografia operativa
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 45
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, 37(8), pp. 2505-2518, ISSN: 0894-8755
    Publication Date: 2024-06-21
    Description: A fundamental statistic of climate variability is its spatiotemporal correlation function. Its complex structure can be concisely summarized by a frequency-dependent measure of the effective spatial degrees of freedom (ESDOF). Here we present, for the first time, frequency-dependent ESDOF estimates of global natural surface temperature variability from purely instrumental measurements, using the HadCRUT4 dataset (1850-2014). The approach is based on a newly developed method for estimating the frequency-dependent spatial correlation function from gappy data fields. Results reveal a multicomponent structure of the spatial correlation function, including a large-amplitude short-distance component (with weak time scale dependence) and a small-amplitude long-distance component (with increasing relative amplitude toward the longer time scales). Two frequency-dependent ESDOF measures are applied, each responding mainly to either of the two components. Both measures exhibit a significant ESDOF reduction from monthly to multidecadal time scales, implying an increase of the effective spatial scale of natural surface temperature fluctuations. Moreover, it is found that a good approximation to the global number of equally spaced samples needed to estimate the variance of global mean temperature is given, at any frequency, by the greater one of the two ESDOF measures, decreasing from ;130 at monthly to ;30 at multidecadal time scales. Finally, the multicomponent structure of the correlation function together with the detected ESDOF scaling properties indicate that the ESDOF reduction toward the longer time scales cannot be explained simply by diffusion acting on stochastically driven anomalies, as it might be suggested f rom simple stochastic-diffusive energy balance models.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 46
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, 34(18), pp. 7373-7388, ISSN: 0894-8755
    Publication Date: 2024-06-21
    Description: Climate variability occurs over wide ranges of spatial and temporal scales. It exhibits a complex spatial covariance structure, which depends on geographic location (e.g., tropics vs extratropics) and also consists of a superposition of (i) components with gradually decaying positive correlation functions and (ii) teleconnections that often involve anticorrelations. In addition, there are indications that the spatial covariance structure depends on frequency. Thus, a comprehensive assessment of the spatiotemporal covariance structure of climate variability would require an extensive set of statistical diagnostics. Therefore, it is often desirable to characterize the covariance structure by a simple summarizing metric that is easy to compute from datasets. Such summarizing metrics are useful, for example, in the context of comparisons between climate models or between models and observations. Here we introduce a frequency-dependent version of a simple measure of the effective spatial degrees of freedom. The measure is based on the temporal variance of the global average of some climate variable, and its novel aspect consists in its frequency dependence. We also provide a clear geometric interpretation of the measure. Its easy applicability is demonstrated using near-surface temperature and precipitation fields obtained from a paleoclimate model simulation. This application reveals a distinct scaling behavior of the spatial degrees of freedom as a function of frequency, ranging from monthly to millennial scales.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 47
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    Cambridge University Press
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Glaciology, Cambridge University Press, 67(261), pp. 84-90
    Publication Date: 2024-06-22
    Description: The validity of any glaciological paleo proxy used to interpret climate records is based on the level of understanding of their transfer from the atmosphere into the ice sheet and their recording in the snowpack. Large spatial noise in snow properties is observed, as the wind constantly redistributes the deposited snow at the surface routed by the local topography. To increase the signal-tonoise ratio and getting a representative estimate of snow properties with respect to the high spatial variability, a large number of snow profiles is needed. However, the classical way of obtaining profiles via snow-pits is time and energy-consuming, and thus unfavourable for large surface sampling programs. In response, we present a dual-tube technique to sample the upper metre of the snowpack at a variable depth resolution with high efficiency. The developed device is robust and avoids contact with the samples by exhibiting two tubes attached alongside each other in order to (1) contain the snow core sample and (2) to access the bottom of the sample, respectively. We demonstrate the performance of the technique through two case studies in East Antarctica where we analysed the variability of water isotopes at a 100 m and 5 km spatial scales.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 48
    Publication Date: 2024-05-29
    Description: NORP-SORP Workshop on Polar Fresh Water: Sources, Pathways and Impacts of Freshwater in Northern and Southern Polar Oceans and Seas (SPICE-UP) What: Up to 60 participants at a time and more than twice as many registrants in total from 20 nations and across experience levels met to discuss the current status of research on freshwater in both polar regions, future directions, and synergies between the Arctic and Southern Ocean research communities When: 19–21 September 2022 Where: Online
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 49
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, American Meteorological Society, 104(9), pp. s1-s10, ISSN: 0003-0007
    Publication Date: 2024-05-29
    Description: 〈jats:title〉Abstract〈/jats:title〉 〈jats:p〉—J. BLUNDEN, T. BOYER, AND E. BARTOW-GILLIES〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉Earth’s global climate system is vast, complex, and intricately interrelated. Many areas are influenced by global-scale phenomena, including the “triple dip” La Niña conditions that prevailed in the eastern Pacific Ocean nearly continuously from mid-2020 through all of 2022; by regional phenomena such as the positive winter and summer North Atlantic Oscillation that impacted weather in parts the Northern Hemisphere and the negative Indian Ocean dipole that impacted weather in parts of the Southern Hemisphere; and by more localized systems such as high-pressure heat domes that caused extreme heat in different areas of the world. Underlying all these natural short-term variabilities are long-term climate trends due to continuous increases since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in the atmospheric concentrations of Earth’s major greenhouse gases.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉In 2022, the annual global average carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere rose to 417.1±0.1 ppm, which is 50% greater than the pre-industrial level. Global mean tropospheric methane abundance was 165% higher than its pre-industrial level, and nitrous oxide was 24% higher. All three gases set new record-high atmospheric concentration levels in 2022.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉Sea-surface temperature patterns in the tropical Pacific characteristic of La Niña and attendant atmospheric patterns tend to mitigate atmospheric heat gain at the global scale, but the annual global surface temperature across land and oceans was still among the six highest in records dating as far back as the mid-1800s. It was the warmest La Niña year on record. Many areas observed record or near-record heat. Europe as a whole observed its second-warmest year on record, with sixteen individual countries observing record warmth at the national scale. Records were shattered across the continent during the summer months as heatwaves plagued the region. On 18 July, 104 stations in France broke their all-time records. One day later, England recorded a temperature of 40°C for the first time ever. China experienced its second-warmest year and warmest summer on record. In the Southern Hemisphere, the average temperature across New Zealand reached a record high for the second year in a row. While Australia’s annual temperature was slightly below the 1991–2020 average, Onslow Airport in Western Australia reached 50.7°C on 13 January, equaling Australia's highest temperature on record.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉While fewer in number and locations than record-high temperatures, record cold was also observed during the year. Southern Africa had its coldest August on record, with minimum temperatures as much as 5°C below normal over Angola, western Zambia, and northern Namibia. Cold outbreaks in the first half of December led to many record-low daily minimum temperature records in eastern Australia.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉The effects of rising temperatures and extreme heat were apparent across the Northern Hemisphere, where snow-cover extent by June 2022 was the third smallest in the 56-year record, and the seasonal duration of lake ice cover was the fourth shortest since 1980. More frequent and intense heatwaves contributed to the second-greatest average mass balance loss for Alpine glaciers around the world since the start of the record in 1970. Glaciers in the Swiss Alps lost a record 6% of their volume. In South America, the combination of drought and heat left many central Andean glaciers snow free by mid-summer in early 2022; glacial ice has a much lower albedo than snow, leading to accelerated heating of the glacier. Across the global cryosphere, permafrost temperatures continued to reach record highs at many high-latitude and mountain locations.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉In the high northern latitudes, the annual surface-air temperature across the Arctic was the fifth highest in the 123-year record. The seasonal Arctic minimum sea-ice extent, typically reached in September, was the 11th-smallest in the 43-year record; however, the amount of multiyear ice—ice that survives at least one summer melt season—remaining in the Arctic continued to decline. Since 2012, the Arctic has been nearly devoid of ice more than four years old.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉In Antarctica, an unusually large amount of snow and ice fell over the continent in 2022 due to several landfalling atmospheric rivers, which contributed to the highest annual surface mass balance, 15% to 16% above the 1991–2020 normal, since the start of two reanalyses records dating to 1980. It was the second-warmest year on record for all five of the long-term staffed weather stations on the Antarctic Peninsula. In East Antarctica, a heatwave event led to a new all-time record-high temperature of −9.4°C—44°C above the March average—on 18 March at Dome C. This was followed by the collapse of the critically unstable Conger Ice Shelf. More than 100 daily low sea-ice extent and sea-ice area records were set in 2022, including two new all-time annual record lows in net sea-ice extent and area in February.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉Across the world’s oceans, global mean sea level was record high for the 11th consecutive year, reaching 101.2 mm above the 1993 average when satellite altimetry measurements began, an increase of 3.3±0.7 over 2021. Globally-averaged ocean heat content was also record high in 2022, while the global sea-surface temperature was the sixth highest on record, equal with 2018. Approximately 58% of the ocean surface experienced at least one marine heatwave in 2022. In the Bay of Plenty, New Zealand’s longest continuous marine heatwave was recorded.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉A total of 85 named tropical storms were observed during the Northern and Southern Hemisphere storm seasons, close to the 1991–2020 average of 87. There were three Category 5 tropical cyclones across the globe—two in the western North Pacific and one in the North Atlantic. This was the fewest Category 5 storms globally since 2017. Globally, the accumulated cyclone energy was the lowest since reliable records began in 1981. Regardless, some storms caused massive damage. In the North Atlantic, Hurricane Fiona became the most intense and most destructive tropical or post-tropical cyclone in Atlantic Canada’s history, while major Hurricane Ian killed more than 100 people and became the third costliest disaster in the United States, causing damage estimated at $113 billion U.S. dollars. In the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Batsirai dropped 2044 mm of rain at Commerson Crater in Réunion. The storm also impacted Madagascar, where 121 fatalities were reported.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉As is typical, some areas around the world were notably dry in 2022 and some were notably wet. In August, record high areas of land across the globe (6.2%) were experiencing extreme drought. Overall, 29% of land experienced moderate or worse categories of drought during the year. The largest drought footprint in the contiguous United States since 2012 (63%) was observed in late October. The record-breaking megadrought of central Chile continued in its 13th consecutive year, and 80-year record-low river levels in northern Argentina and Paraguay disrupted fluvial transport. In China, the Yangtze River reached record-low values. Much of equatorial eastern Africa had five consecutive below-normal rainy seasons by the end of 2022, with some areas receiving record-low precipitation totals for the year. This ongoing 2.5-year drought is the most extensive and persistent drought event in decades, and led to crop failure, millions of livestock deaths, water scarcity, and inflated prices for staple food items.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉In South Asia, Pakistan received around three times its normal volume of monsoon precipitation in August, with some regions receiving up to eight times their expected monthly totals. Resulting floods affected over 30 million people, caused over 1700 fatalities, led to major crop and property losses, and was recorded as one of the world’s costliest natural disasters of all time. Near Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Petrópolis received 530 mm in 24 hours on 15 February, about 2.5 times the monthly February average, leading to the worst disaster in the city since 1931 with over 230 fatalities.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉On 14–15 January, the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai submarine volcano in the South Pacific erupted multiple times. The injection of water into the atmosphere was unprecedented in both magnitude—far exceeding any previous values in the 17-year satellite record—and altitude as it penetrated into the mesosphere. The amount of water injected into the stratosphere is estimated to be 146±5 Terragrams, or ∼10% of the total amount in the stratosphere. It may take several years for the water plume to dissipate, and it is currently unknown whether this eruption will have any long-term climate effect.〈/jats:p〉
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 50
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, American Meteorological Society, 104(9), pp. s271-s321, ISSN: 0003-0007
    Publication Date: 2024-05-29
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 51
    Publication Date: 2024-05-29
    Description: We developed a high-resolution magnetochronology of the Pleistocene stratigraphy of the Monte Netto hillock, a tectonically uplifted struc ture in the Po Plain of northern Italy. Our data allowed reconstructing the depositional age of the sequence and assessing rates of defor mation and rock uplift of the neotectonic structure, thus providing constraints on the tectono-sedimentary evolution of this seismically active part of the buried Southern Alps. Using a combination of magnetostratigraphy and paleosecular variation analysis, we generated an age-depth model for the Monte Netto stratigraphy that encompasses, from the top, Upper Pleistocene (11–72 ka) loess-paleosols over laying fluvial sediments spanning the Brunhes-Matuyama boundary (773 ka) and the top of the Jaramillo (990 ka). The identification of the same magneto-chronostratigraphic surfaces in nearby drill cores from regions of the Po Plain that have not been affected by neotectonic deformation allowed estimating a mean rate of tectonic uplift of the hillock relative to the neighboring plain of 11.3 ± 1.5 cm/ka, and an absolute uplift relative to sea level of ∼19.3 cm/ka. Finally, our paleomagnetic analyses from the uppermost loess sequence disclosed the complexity of the tectonic evolution of the Monte Netto structure, which shows evidence of a two-phase rotational deformation linked to coseismic surface faulting due to recent seismic activity.
    Description: Published
    Description: 191-205
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Magnetochronology ; Pleistocene ; Paleosecular variations ; Loess-paleosols ; Neotectonic deformation ; Po Plain
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  • 52
    Publication Date: 2024-06-28
    Description: 〈jats:title〉Abstract〈/jats:title〉 〈jats:p〉This study quantifies the state-of-the-art in the rapidly growing field of seasonal Arctic sea ice prediction. A novel multi-model dataset of retrospective seasonal predictions of September Arctic sea ice is created and analyzed, consisting of community contributions from 17 statistical models and 17 dynamical models. Prediction skill is compared over the period 2001–2020 for predictions of Pan-Arctic sea ice extent (SIE), regional SIE, and local sea ice concentration (SIC) initialized on June 1, July 1, August 1, and September 1. This diverse set of statistical and dynamical models can individually predict linearly detrended Pan-Arctic SIE anomalies with skill, and a multi-model median prediction has correlation coefficients of 0.79, 0.86, 0.92, and 0.99 at these respective initialization times. Regional SIE predictions have similar skill to Pan-Arctic predictions in the Alaskan and Siberian regions, whereas regional skill is lower in the Canadian, Atlantic, and Central Arctic sectors. The skill of dynamical and statistical models is generally comparable for Pan-Arctic SIE, whereas dynamical models outperform their statistical counterparts for regional and local predictions. The prediction systems are found to provide the most value added relative to basic reference forecasts in the extreme SIE years of 1996, 2007, and 2012. SIE prediction errors do not show clear trends over time, suggesting that there has been minimal change in inherent sea ice predictability over the satellite era. Overall, this study demonstrates that there are bright prospects for skillful operational predictions of September sea ice at least three months in advance.〈/jats:p〉
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  • 53
    Electronic Resource
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    Palo Alto, Calif. : Annual Reviews
    Annual Review of Astronomy and Astrophysics 18 (1980), S. 43-75 
    ISSN: 0066-4146
    Source: Annual Reviews Electronic Back Volume Collection 1932-2001ff
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  • 54
    Electronic Resource
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    Palo Alto, Calif. : Annual Reviews
    Annual Review of Astronomy and Astrophysics 18 (1980), S. 77-113 
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  • 55
    Electronic Resource
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    Palo Alto, Calif. : Annual Reviews
    Annual Review of Astronomy and Astrophysics 18 (1980), S. 115-164 
    ISSN: 0066-4146
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  • 56
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Palo Alto, Calif. : Annual Reviews
    Annual Review of Astronomy and Astrophysics 18 (1980), S. 439-488 
    ISSN: 0066-4146
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  • 57
    Electronic Resource
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    Palo Alto, Calif. : Annual Reviews
    Annual Review of Astronomy and Astrophysics 18 (1980), S. 165-218 
    ISSN: 0066-4146
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  • 58
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    Palo Alto, Calif. : Annual Reviews
    Annual Review of Astronomy and Astrophysics 18 (1980), S. 537-560 
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    Annual Review of Astronomy and Astrophysics 19 (1981), S. 77-113 
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    Annual Review of Astronomy and Astrophysics 19 (1981), S. 319-356 
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    Palo Alto, Calif. : Annual Reviews
    Annual Review of Astronomy and Astrophysics 22 (1984), S. 185-222 
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    Annual Review of Astronomy and Astrophysics 22 (1984), S. 223-265 
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    Annual Review of Astronomy and Astrophysics 22 (1984), S. 267-289 
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    Annual Review of Astronomy and Astrophysics 22 (1984), S. 291-317 
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    Annual Review of Astronomy and Astrophysics 22 (1984), S. 319-358 
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    Annual Review of Astronomy and Astrophysics 22 (1984), S. 359-387 
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    Annual Review of Astronomy and Astrophysics 22 (1984), S. 389-424 
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    Annual Review of Astronomy and Astrophysics 22 (1984), S. 445-470 
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    Annual Review of Astronomy and Astrophysics 22 (1984), S. 471-506 
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    Annual Review of Astronomy and Astrophysics 22 (1984), S. 507-536 
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    Annual Review of Astronomy and Astrophysics 22 (1984), S. 537-592 
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    Annual Review of Astronomy and Astrophysics 3 (1965), S. 135-216 
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    Annual Review of Astronomy and Astrophysics 3 (1965), S. 297-350 
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    Annual Review of Astronomy and Astrophysics 3 (1965), S. 377-411 
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    Annual Review of Astronomy and Astrophysics 5 (1967), S. 481-524 
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    Annual Review of Astronomy and Astrophysics 6 (1968), S. 417-448 
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    Annual Review of Astronomy and Astrophysics 7 (1969), S. 1-38 
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    Annual Review of Astronomy and Astrophysics 7 (1969), S. 121-148 
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    Annual Review of Astronomy and Astrophysics 7 (1969), S. 201-248 
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    Annual Review of Fluid Mechanics 12 (1980), S. 77-102 
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    Annual Review of Fluid Mechanics 12 (1980), S. 181-222 
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    Annual Review of Fluid Mechanics 12 (1980), S. 223-236 
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    Annual Review of Fluid Mechanics 12 (1980), S. 237-269 
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    Annual Review of Fluid Mechanics 12 (1980), S. 271-301 
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    Annual Review of Fluid Mechanics 12 (1980), S. 389-433 
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    Annual Review of Fluid Mechanics 12 (1980), S. 335-363 
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    Annual Review of Fluid Mechanics 12 (1980), S. 365-387 
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    Annual Review of Fluid Mechanics 12 (1980), S. 435-476 
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    Annual Review of Fluid Mechanics 13 (1981), S. 1-8 
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