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  • 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate  (4)
  • Turbulence  (4)
  • American Meteorological Society  (8)
  • American Institute of Physics (AIP)
  • Springer Nature
  • Springer Science + Business Media
  • 2015-2019  (8)
  • 1995-1999
  • 1990-1994
  • 2015  (8)
  • 1
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    Cluster analysis of downscaled and explicitly simulated North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks (2015)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-11-18
    Description: A realistic representation of the North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks is crucial as it allows, for example, explaining potential changes in U.S. landfalling systems. Here, the authors present a tentative study that examines the ability of recent climate models to represent North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks. Tracks from two types of climate models are evaluated: explicit tracks are obtained from tropical cyclones simulated in regional or global climate models with moderate to high horizontal resolution (1°–0.25°), and downscaled tracks are obtained using a downscaling technique with large-scale environmental fields from a subset of these models. For both configurations, tracks are objectively separated into four groups using a cluster technique, leading to a zonal and a meridional separation of the tracks. The meridional separation largely captures the separation between deep tropical and subtropical, hybrid or baroclinic cyclones, while the zonal separation segregates Gulf of Mexico and Cape Verde storms. The properties of the tracks’ seasonality, intensity, and power dissipation index in each cluster are documented for both configurations. The authors’ results show that, except for the seasonality, the downscaled tracks better capture the observed characteristics of the clusters. The authors also use three different idealized scenarios to examine the possible future changes of tropical cyclone tracks under 1) warming sea surface temperature, 2) increasing carbon dioxide, and 3) a combination of the two. The response to each scenario is highly variable depending on the simulation considered. Finally, the authors examine the role of each cluster in these future changes and find no preponderant contribution of any single cluster over the others.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1333–1361
    Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: tropical cyclones ; atlantic basin ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
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    Projected changes in intense precipitation over Europe at the daily and sub-daily time scales (2015)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2016-10-06
    Description: Heavy precipitation is a major hazard over Europe. It is well established that climate model projections indicate a tendency towards more extreme daily rainfall events. It is still uncertain, however, how this changing intensity translates at the sub-daily time scales. The main goal of the present study is to examine possible differences in projected changes in intense precipitation events over Europe at the daily and sub-daily (3-hourly) time scales using a state-of-the-science climate model. The focus will be on one Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5), considered as illustrative of a high rate of increase in greenhouse gas concentrations over this century. There are statistically significant differences in intense precipitation projections (up to 40%) when comparing the results at the daily and sub-daily time scales. Over north-eastern Europe, projected precipitation intensification at the 3-hour scale is lower than at the daily scale. On the other hand, Spain and the western seaboard exhibit an opposite behaviour, with stronger intensification at the 3-hour scale rather than daily scale. While the mean properties of the precipitation distributions are independent of the analysed frequency, projected precipitation intensification exhibits regional differences. This finding has implications on the extrapolation of impacts of intense precipitation events, given the daily time scale the analyses are usually performed at.
    Description: Published
    Description: 6193–6203
    Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: rainfall ; extreme events ; heavy precipitation ; snow ; europe ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
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    On the internal variability of simulated daily precipitation (2015)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Climate model simulations are currently the main tool to provide information about possible future climates. Apart from scenario uncertainties and model error, internal variability is a major source of uncertainty, complicating predictions of future changes. Here, a suite of statistical tests is proposed to determine the shortest time window necessary to capture the internal precipitation variability in a stationary climate. The length of this shortest window thus expresses internal variability in terms of years. The method is applied globally to daily precipitation in a 200-yr preindustrial climate simulation with the CMCC-CM coupled general circulation model. The two-sample Cramér–von Mises test is used to assess differences in precipitation distribution, the Walker test accounts for multiple testing at grid cell level, and field significance is determined by calculating the Bejamini–Hochberg false-discovery rate. Results for the investigated simulation show that internal variability of daily precipitation is regionally and seasonally dependent and that regions requiring long time windows do not necessarily coincide with areas with large standard deviation. The estimated time scales are longer over sea than over land, in the tropics than in midlatitudes, and in the transitional seasons than in winter and summer. For many land grid cells, 30 seasons suffice to capture the internal variability of daily precipitation. There exist regions, however, where even 50 years do not suffice to sample the internal variability. The results show that diagnosing daily precipitation change at different times based on fixed global snapshots of one climate simulation might not be a robust detection method.
    Description: Published
    Description: 3624–3630
    Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: precipitation ; internal variability ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 4
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    The role of whitecapping in thickening the ocean surface boundary layer (2015)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 45 (2015): 2006–2024, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-14-0234.1.
    Description: The effects of wind-driven whitecapping on the evolution of the ocean surface boundary layer are examined using an idealized one-dimensional Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes numerical model. Whitecapping is parameterized as a flux of turbulent kinetic energy through the sea surface and through an adjustment of the turbulent length scale. Simulations begin with a two-layer configuration and use a wind that ramps to a steady stress. This study finds that the boundary layer begins to thicken sooner in simulations with whitecapping than without because whitecapping introduces energy to the base of the boundary layer sooner than shear production does. Even in the presence of whitecapping, shear production becomes important for several hours, but then inertial oscillations cause shear production and whitecapping to alternate as the dominant energy sources for mixing. Details of these results are sensitive to initial and forcing conditions, particularly to the turbulent length scale imposed by breaking waves and the transfer velocity of energy from waves to turbulence. After 1–2 days of steady wind, the boundary layer in whitecapping simulations has thickened more than the boundary layer in simulations without whitecapping by about 10%–50%, depending on the forcing and initial conditions.
    Description: We thank Skidmore College for financial and infrastructure support, and Skidmore and the National Science Foundation for funding travel to meetings where early versions of this work were presented. We also thank the National Science Foundation, Oregon State University, Jonathan Nash, and Joe Jurisa for funding and hosting a workshop on River Plume Mixing in October, 2013, where ideas and context for this paper were developed.
    Description: 2016-02-01
    Keywords: Circulation/ Dynamics ; Mixing ; Turbulence ; Wave breaking ; Wind stress ; Atm/Ocean Structure/ Phenomena ; Mixed layer
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 5
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    Spontaneous generation of near-inertial waves by the Kuroshio Front (2015)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 45 (2015): 2381–2406, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-14-0086.1.
    Description: While near-inertial waves are known to be generated by atmospheric storms, recent observations in the Kuroshio Front find intense near-inertial internal-wave shear along sloping isopycnals, even during calm weather. Recent literature suggests that spontaneous generation of near-inertial waves by frontal instabilities could represent a major sink for the subinertial quasigeostrophic circulation. An unforced three-dimensional 1-km-resolution model, initialized with the observed cross-Kuroshio structure, is used to explore this mechanism. After several weeks, the model exhibits growth of 10–100-km-scale frontal meanders, accompanied by O(10) mW m−2 spontaneous generation of near-inertial waves associated with readjustment of submesoscale fronts forced out of balance by mesoscale confluent flows. These waves have properties resembling those in the observations. However, they are reabsorbed into the model Kuroshio Front with no more than 15% dissipating or radiating away. Thus, spontaneous generation of near-inertial waves represents a redistribution of quasigeostrophic energy rather than a significant sink.
    Description: “The Study of Kuroshio Ecosystem Dynamics for Sustainable Fisheries (SKED)” supported by MEXT, MIT-Hayashi Seed Fund, ONR (Awards N000140910196 and N000141210101), NSF (Award OCE 0928617, 0928138) for support.
    Description: 2016-03-01
    Keywords: Circulation/ Dynamics ; Frontogenesis/frontolysis ; Fronts ; Internal waves ; Turbulence ; Upwelling/downwelling ; Atm/Ocean Structure/ Phenomena ; Jets
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 6
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    Biases in Thorpe-scale estimates of turbulence dissipation. Part I : Assessments from large-scale overturns in oceanographic data (2015)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 45 (2015): 2497–2521, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-14-0128.1.
    Description: Oceanic density overturns are commonly used to parameterize the dissipation rate of turbulent kinetic energy. This method assumes a linear scaling between the Thorpe length scale LT and the Ozmidov length scale LO. Historic evidence supporting LT ~ LO has been shown for relatively weak shear-driven turbulence of the thermocline; however, little support for the method exists in regions of turbulence driven by the convective collapse of topographically influenced overturns that are large by open-ocean standards. This study presents a direct comparison of LT and LO, using vertical profiles of temperature and microstructure shear collected in the Luzon Strait—a site characterized by topographically influenced overturns up to O(100) m in scale. The comparison is also done for open-ocean sites in the Brazil basin and North Atlantic where overturns are generally smaller and due to different processes. A key result is that LT/LO increases with overturn size in a fashion similar to that observed in numerical studies of Kelvin–Helmholtz (K–H) instabilities for all sites but is most clear in data from the Luzon Strait. Resultant bias in parameterized dissipation is mitigated by ensemble averaging; however, a positive bias appears when instantaneous observations are depth and time integrated. For a series of profiles taken during a spring tidal period in the Luzon Strait, the integrated value is nearly an order of magnitude larger than that based on the microstructure observations. Physical arguments supporting LT ~ LO are revisited, and conceptual regimes explaining the relationship between LT/LO and a nondimensional overturn size are proposed. In a companion paper, Scotti obtains similar conclusions from energetics arguments and simulations.
    Description: B.D.M. and S.K.V. gratefully acknowledge the support of the Office of Naval Research under Grants N00014-12-1-0279, N00014-12-1-0282, and N00014-12-1-0938 (Program Manager: Dr. Terri Paluszkiewicz). S.K.V. also acknowledges support of the National Science Foundation under Grant OCE-1151838. L.S.L. acknowledges support for BBTRE by the National Science Foundation by Contract OCE94-15589 and NATRE and IWISE by the Office of Naval Research by Contracts N00014-92-1323 and N00014-10-10315. J.N.M. was supported through Grant 1256620 from the National Science Foundation and the Office of Naval Research (IWISE Project).
    Description: 2016-04-01
    Keywords: Circulation/ Dynamics ; Diapycnal mixing ; Small scale processes ; Turbulence ; Atm/Ocean Structure/ Phenomena ; Mixing ; Observational techniques and algorithms ; Profilers, oceanic ; Models and modeling ; Parameterization
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 7
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    Characterization and modulation of Langmuir circulation in Chesapeake Bay (2015)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 45 (2015): 2621–2639, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-14-0239.1.
    Description: Measurements made as part of a large-scale experiment to examine wind-driven circulation and mixing in Chesapeake Bay demonstrate that circulations consistent with Langmuir circulation play an important role in surface boundary layer dynamics. Under conditions when the turbulent Langmuir number Lat is low (〈0.5), the surface mixed layer is characterized by 1) elevated vertical turbulent kinetic energy; 2) decreased anisotropy; 3) negative vertical velocity skewness indicative of strong/narrow downwelling and weak/broad upwelling; and 4) strong negative correlations between low-frequency vertical velocity and the velocity in the direction of wave propagation. These characteristics appear to be primarily the result of the vortex force associated with the surface wave field, but convection driven by a destabilizing heat flux is observed and appears to contribute significantly to the observed negative vertical velocity skewness. Conditions that favor convection usually also have strong Langmuir forcing, and these two processes probably both contribute to the surface mixed layer turbulence. Conditions in which traditional stress-driven turbulence is important are limited in this dataset. Unlike other shallow coastal systems where full water column Langmuir circulation has been observed, the salinity stratification in Chesapeake Bay is nearly always strong enough to prevent full-depth circulation from developing.
    Description: The funding for this research was provided by the National Science Foundation Grants OCE-1339032 and OCE-1338518.
    Description: 2016-04-01
    Keywords: Circulation/ Dynamics ; Convection ; Instability ; Mixing ; Turbulence ; Wave breaking ; Wind stress
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 8
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    Prediction of Indian summer monsoon onset using dynamical sub-seasonal forecasts: effects of realistic initialization of the atmosphere (2015)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-11-09
    Description: Ensembles of retrospective 2-month dynamical forecasts initiated on 1May are used to predict the onset of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) for the period 1989–2005. The subseasonal predictions (SSPs) are based on a coupled general circulation model and recently they have been upgraded by the realistic initialization of the atmosphere with initial conditions taken from reanalysis. Two objective large-scale methods based on dynamical circulation and hydrological indices are applied to detect the ISM onset. The SSPs show some skill in forecasting earlier-than-normal ISM onsets, while they have difficulty in predicting late onsets. It is shown that significant contribution to the skill in forecasting early ISM onsets comes from the newly developed initialization of the atmosphere from reanalysis. On one hand, atmospheric initialization produces a better representation of the atmospheric mean state in the initial conditions, leading to a systematically improved monsoon onset sequence. On the other hand, the initialization of the atmosphere allows some skill in forecasting the northward propagating intraseasonal wind and precipitation anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean. The northward propagating intraseasonal modes trigger the monsoon in some early-onset years. The realistic phase initialization of these modes improves the forecasts of the associated earlier-than-normal monsoon onsets. The prediction of late onsets is not noticeably improved by the initialization of the atmosphere. It is suggested that late onsets of the monsoon are too far away from the start date of the forecasts to conserve enough memory of the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) anomalies and of the improved representation of the mean state in the initial conditions.
    Description: Published
    Description: 778-793
    Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: indian summer monsoon ; onset ; seasonal predictions ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.04. Processes and Dynamics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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