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  • Springer Nature  (37,991)
  • American Meteorological Society
  • Blackwell Publishing Ltd
  • Nature Publishing Group
  • Wiley-Blackwell
  • 2020-2022
  • 2015-2019  (40,450)
  • 1960-1964
  • 2015  (40,450)
Collection
Keywords
Publisher
Years
  • 2020-2022
  • 2015-2019  (40,450)
  • 1960-1964
Year
  • 1
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    Cluster analysis of downscaled and explicitly simulated North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks (2015)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-11-18
    Description: A realistic representation of the North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks is crucial as it allows, for example, explaining potential changes in U.S. landfalling systems. Here, the authors present a tentative study that examines the ability of recent climate models to represent North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks. Tracks from two types of climate models are evaluated: explicit tracks are obtained from tropical cyclones simulated in regional or global climate models with moderate to high horizontal resolution (1°–0.25°), and downscaled tracks are obtained using a downscaling technique with large-scale environmental fields from a subset of these models. For both configurations, tracks are objectively separated into four groups using a cluster technique, leading to a zonal and a meridional separation of the tracks. The meridional separation largely captures the separation between deep tropical and subtropical, hybrid or baroclinic cyclones, while the zonal separation segregates Gulf of Mexico and Cape Verde storms. The properties of the tracks’ seasonality, intensity, and power dissipation index in each cluster are documented for both configurations. The authors’ results show that, except for the seasonality, the downscaled tracks better capture the observed characteristics of the clusters. The authors also use three different idealized scenarios to examine the possible future changes of tropical cyclone tracks under 1) warming sea surface temperature, 2) increasing carbon dioxide, and 3) a combination of the two. The response to each scenario is highly variable depending on the simulation considered. Finally, the authors examine the role of each cluster in these future changes and find no preponderant contribution of any single cluster over the others.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1333–1361
    Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: tropical cyclones ; atlantic basin ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
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    Lateglacial to Holocene trace element record (Ba, Mg, Sr) from Corchia Cave (Apuan Alps, central Italy): paleoenvironmental implications (2015)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-06-16
    Description: In this study, Mg/Ca, Sr/Ca and Ba/Ca ratios in a Lateglacial to Holocene stalagmite (CC26) from Corchia Cave (central Italy) are compared with stable isotope data to define palaeohydrological changes. For most of the record, the trace element ratios show small absolute variability but similar patterns, which are also consistent with stable isotope variations. Higher trace element-to-calcium values are interpreted as responses to decreasing moisture, inducing changes in the residence time of percolation, producing prior calcite precipitation and/or variations in the hydrological routing. Statistically meaningful levels of covariability were determined using anomalies of Mg/Ca, d18O and d13C. Combining these three time series into a single ‘palaeomoisture-trend’ parameter, we highlight several events of reduced moisture (ca. 8.9–8.4, 6.2, 4.2, 3.1 and 2.0 ka), a humid period between ca. 7.9 and 8.3 ka and other shorter-term wet events at ca. 5.8, 5.3 and 3.7 ka. Most of these events can be correlated with climate changes inferred from other regional studies. For both extremities of the record (i.e. before ca. 12.4 ka and after ca. 0.5 ka) Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca are anti-correlated and show the greatest amplitude of values, a likely explanation for which involves aragonite and/or gypsum precipitation (the latter derived from pyrite oxidation) above the CC26 drip point.
    Description: Published
    Description: 381–392
    Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: central Italy; Corchia Cave; Holocene; speleothems; trace elements ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 3
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    Systemic seismic risk assessment of road networks in urban areas (2015)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-03-18
    Description: This article presents an integrated approach for the probabilistic systemic risk analysis of a road network considering spatial seismic hazard with correlation of ground motion intensities, vulnerability of the network components, and the effect of interactions within the network, as well as, between roadway components and built environment to the network functionality. The system performance is evaluated at the system level through a global connectivity performance indicator, which depends on both physical damages to its components and induced functionality losses due to interactions with other systems. An object-oriented modeling paradigm is used, where the complex problem of several interacting systems is decomposed in a number of interacting objects, accounting for intra- and interdependencies between and within systems. Each system is specified with its components, solving algorithms, performance indicators and interactions with other systems. The proposed approach is implemented for the analysis of the road network in the city of Thessaloniki (Greece) to demonstrate its applicability. In particular, the risk for the road network in the area is calculated, specifically focusing on the short-term impact of seismic events (just after the earthquake). The potential of road blockages due to collapses of adjacent buildings and overpass bridges is analyzed, trying to individuate possible criticalities related to specific components/subsystems. The application can be extended based on the proposed approach, to account for other interactions such as failure of pipelines beneath the road segments, collapse of adjacent electric poles, or malfunction of lighting and signaling systems due to damage in the electric power network.
    Description: Published
    Description: 524–540
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Systemic vulnerability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 4
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    Impact of Orbital Parameters and Greenhouse Gas on the Climate of MIS 7 and MIS 5 Glacial Inceptions (2015)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-06-22
    Description: This work explores the impact of orbital parameters and greenhouse gas concentrations on the climate of marine isotope stage (MIS) 7 glacial inception and compares it to that of MIS 5. The authors use a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model to simulate the mean climate state of six time slices at 115, 122, 125, 229, 236, and 239 kyr, representative of a climate evolution from interglacial to glacial inception conditions. The simulations are designed to separate the effects of orbital parameters from those of greenhouse gas (GHG). Their results show that, in all the time slices considered, MIS 7 boreal lands mean annual climate is colder than the MIS 5 one. This difference is explained at 70% by the impact of the MIS 7 GHG. While the impact of GHG over Northern Hemisphere is homogeneous, the difference in temperature between MIS 7 and MIS 5 due to orbital parameters differs regionally and is linked with the Arctic Oscillation. The perennial snow cover is larger in all the MIS 7 experiments compared to MIS 5, as a result of MIS 7 orbital parameters, strengthened by GHG. At regional scale, Eurasia exhibits the strongest response to MIS 7 cold climate with a perennial snow area 3 times larger than in MIS 5 experiments. This suggests that MIS 7 glacial inception is more favorable over this area than over North America. Furthermore, at 239 kyr, the perennial snow covers an area equivalent to that of MIS 5 glacial inception (115 kyr). The authors suggest that MIS 7 glacial inception is more extensive than MIS 5 glacial inception over the high latitudes.
    Description: Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research Ministry for Environment, Land and Sea through the project GEMINA
    Description: Published
    Description: 8918-8933
    Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Arctic Oscillation ; Teleconnections ; Greenhouse gases ; Glaciation ; Paleoclimate ; 02. Cryosphere::02.03. Ice cores::02.03.05. Paleoclimate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 5
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    Ground structure imaging by inversions of Rayleigh wave ellipticity: sensitivity analysis and application to European strong-motion sites (2015)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-12-14
    Description: The knowledge of the local soil structure is important for the assessment of seismic hazards. A widespread, but time-consuming technique to retrieve the parameters of the local underground is the drilling of boreholes. Another way to obtain the shear wave velocity profile at a given location is the inversion of surface wave dispersion curves. To ensure a good resolution for both superficial and deeper layers, the used dispersion curves need to cover a wide frequency range. This wide frequency range can be obtained using several arrays of seismic sensors or a single array comprising a large number of sensors. Consequently, these measurements are time-consuming. A simpler alternative is provided by the use of the ellipticity of Rayleigh waves. The frequency dependence of the ellipticity is tightly linked to the shear wave velocity profile. Furthermore, it can be measured using a single seismic sensor. As soil structures obtained by scaling of a given model exhibit the same ellipticity curve, any inversion of the ellipticity curve alone will be ambiguous. Therefore, additional measurements which fix the absolute value of the shear wave velocity profile at some points have to be included in the inversion process. Small-scale spatial autocorrelation measurements or MASW measurements can provide the needed data. Using a theoretical soil structure, we show which parts of the ellipticity curve have to be included in the inversion process to get a reliable result and which parts can be omitted. Furthermore, the use of autocorrelation or high-frequency dispersion curves will be highlighted. The resulting guidelines for inversions including ellipticity data are then applied to real data measurements collected at 14 different sites during the European NERIES project. It is found that the results are in good agreement with dispersion curve measurements. Furthermore, the method can help in identifying the mode of Rayleigh waves in dispersion curve measurements.
    Description: Published
    Description: 207-229
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Inverse theory Surface waves and free oscillations Site effects Computational seismology Wave propagation ; 04. Solid Earth::04.02. Exploration geophysics::04.02.06. Seismic methods
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 6
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    A performance-based framework for adaptive seismic aftershock risk assessment (2015)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-06-22
    Description: Operative seismic aftershock risk forecasting can be particularly useful for rapid decision-making in the presence of an ongoing sequence. In such a context, limit state first-excursion probabilities (risk) for the forecasting interval (a day) can represent the potential for progressive state of damage in a structure. This work lays out a performance-based framework for adaptive aftershock risk assessment in the immediate post-mainshock environment. A time-dependent structural performance variable is adopted in order to measure the cumulative damage in a structure. A set of event-dependent fragility curves as a function of the first-mode spectral acceleration for a prescribed limit state is calculated by employing back-to-back non- linear dynamic analyses. An epidemic-type aftershock sequence model is employed for estimating the spatio-temporal evolution of aftershocks. The event-dependent fragility curves for a given limit state are then integrated together with the probability distribution of aftershock spectral acceleration based on the epidemic-type aftershock sequence aftershock hazard. The daily probability of limit state first-excursion is finally calculated as a weighted combination of the sequence of limit state probabilities conditioned on the num- ber of aftershocks. As a numerical example, daily aftershock risk is calculated for the L’Aquila 2009 aftershock sequence (central Italy). A representative three-story reinforced concrete frame with infill panels, which has cyclic strength and stiffness degradation, is used in order to evaluate the progressive damage. It is observed that the proposed framework leads to a sound forecasting of limit state first-excursion in the structure for two limit states of significant damage and near collapse. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2179–2197
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: aftershock ; time-dependent reliability ; seismic risk ; etas modeling ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 7
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    Projected changes in intense precipitation over Europe at the daily and sub-daily time scales (2015)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2016-10-06
    Description: Heavy precipitation is a major hazard over Europe. It is well established that climate model projections indicate a tendency towards more extreme daily rainfall events. It is still uncertain, however, how this changing intensity translates at the sub-daily time scales. The main goal of the present study is to examine possible differences in projected changes in intense precipitation events over Europe at the daily and sub-daily (3-hourly) time scales using a state-of-the-science climate model. The focus will be on one Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5), considered as illustrative of a high rate of increase in greenhouse gas concentrations over this century. There are statistically significant differences in intense precipitation projections (up to 40%) when comparing the results at the daily and sub-daily time scales. Over north-eastern Europe, projected precipitation intensification at the 3-hour scale is lower than at the daily scale. On the other hand, Spain and the western seaboard exhibit an opposite behaviour, with stronger intensification at the 3-hour scale rather than daily scale. While the mean properties of the precipitation distributions are independent of the analysed frequency, projected precipitation intensification exhibits regional differences. This finding has implications on the extrapolation of impacts of intense precipitation events, given the daily time scale the analyses are usually performed at.
    Description: Published
    Description: 6193–6203
    Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: rainfall ; extreme events ; heavy precipitation ; snow ; europe ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 8
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    Directional resonance variations across the Pernicana Fault, Mt Etna, in relation to brittle deformation fields (2015)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The Pernicana Fault (PF) is the main structural element of Mt Etna and the northern boundary of a section sliding to the southeast. Observed ground motion records in the damage zone of the PF show strong variations of directional resonance in the horizontal plane. The observed resonance directions exhibit an abrupt rotation of azimuth by about 30◦ across the fault, varying from N166◦ on the north side to N139◦ on the south. We interpret the directional resonance observations in terms of changes in the kinematics and deformation fields on the opposite sides of the fault. The northern side is affected primarily by the left-lateral strike-slip movement, whereas the southern side, that is subjected also to sliding, is under a dominant extensional stress regime. Brittle deformation models based on the observed kinematic field predict different sets of fractures on the opposite sides of the fault: synthetic cleavages and extensional fractures are expected to dominate in the northern and southern sides, respectively. These two fracture fields have different orientations (N74◦ and N42◦, respectively) and both show a near-orthogonal relation (∼88◦ in the northern sector and ∼83◦ to the south) with the azimuth of the observed directional resonance. We conclude that the direction of the largest resonance motions is sensitive to and has transversal relationship with the dominant fracture orientation. The directional amplification is inferred to be produced by stiffness anisotropy of the fault damage zone, with larger seismic motions normal to the fractures.
    Description: Published
    Description: 986–996
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Earthquake ground motions; Site effects; Wave propagation ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.09. Waves and wave analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 9
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    Assessing annual global M6+ seismicity forecasts (2015)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We consider a seismicity forecast experiment conducted during the last 4 yr. At the beginning of each year, three models make a 1-yr forecast of the distribution of large earthquakes everywhere on the Earth. The forecasts are generated and the observations are collected in the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). We apply CSEP likelihood measures of consistency and comparison to see how well the forecasts match the observations, and we compare results from some intuitive reference models. These results illustrate some undesirable properties of the consistency tests: the tests can be extremely sensitive to only a few earthquakes, and yet insensitive to seemingly obvious flaws—a na ̈ıve hypothesis that large earthquakes are equally likely everywhere is not always rejected. The results also suggest that one should check the assumptions of the so-called T and W comparison tests, and we illustrate some methods to do so. As an extension of model assessment, we explore strategies to combine forecasts, and we discuss the implications for operational earthquake forecasting. Finally, we make suggestions for the next generation of global seismicity forecast experiments.
    Description: Published
    Description: 422-431
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: probabilistic forecasting ; statistical seismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 10
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    The hydrological signature of a seismogenic source: coseismic hydrological changes in response to the 1915 Fucino (Central Italy) earthquake (2015)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The M ∼ 7 1915 Fucino (Central Italy) earthquake represents one of the most destructive seismic events ever occurred in the Italian Peninsula. Several seismogenic faults have been proposed in the past decades as the source of the earthquake by means of different approaches and techniques that lead to a variety of speculations about the source mechanism and the fault location, often contrasting with one another. The 1915 earthquake produced a remarkable data set of 73 coseismic hydrological changes in the near and intermediate field that consist in variation of the flow of streams and springs, liquefaction, rise of water temperature and turbidity. In this paper, we study the coseismic water level changes induced by the 1915 earthquake in the near field to provide convincing clues on the geometry of the earthquake causative fault. We model the coseismic strain field induced by seventeen individual faults proposed through different approaches, and compare its pattern with the distribution of streamflow changes. We find: (i) clues on the most probable geometry of the earthquake causative fault. Best fits between modelled deformation and observed data are displayed by sources (derived by geological or seismological data) that share several distinctive features, as they are ∼135◦-striking, SW-dipping, 25–30-km-long normal faults located along the eastern side of the Fucino basin. These data point to the Serrone Fault and the Parasano Fault as the most likely causative structures and support the hypothesis that the coseismic ruptures observed in the field represented primary surface faulting. On the contrary, our calculations show that the Pescina Fault and the Ventrino Fault are secondary faults from the perspective of the hydrological response. Finally, one of the best scoring potential sources (from geological data) is a multifaulting system that considers the presence, in the central-western part of the basin, of fault splays synthetic and antithetic to the main seismogenic structures; therefore, we infer for these splays a possible active involvement in a 1915-like seismogenic process; (ii) evidence against a number of seismogenic structures that were previously associated with the earthquake. In particular, the plots of coseismic strain induced by sources uniquely derived by macroseismic or geodetic data prove to be inconsistent with the polarities of the hydrological signatures. Also, sources mainly characterized by reverse faulting and/or by right-lateral strike-slip component are discarded and (iii) as a final remark, we maintain that the study of the hydrological signatures of earthquake strain can offer an alternative tool in the investigation of the historical seismicity, to estimate the focal mechanism of major earthquakes capable of giving rise to a consistent data set of hydrological data.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1374-1388
    Description: 2T. Tettonica attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: 1915 Fucino earthquake ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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