ALBERT

Description: In preparation for the European Space Agency's (ESA) Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission we investigated the potential of L-band (1.4 GHz) radiometery to measure sea ice thickness. Sea ice brightness temperature was measured at 1.4 GHz and ice thickness were measured along nearly coincident flight tracks during the SMOS Sea-Ice campaign in the Bay of Bothnia in March 2007. A research aircraft was equipped with the L-band Radiometer EMIRAD and coordinated with helicopter based electromagnetic induction (EM) ice thickness measurements. We developed a three layer (ocean-ice-atmosphere) dielectric slab model for the calculation of ice thickness from brightness temperature. The dielectric properties depend on the relative brine volume which is a function of the bulk ice salinity and temperature. The model calculations suggest a thickness sensitivity of up to 1.5 m for low-salinity (multi-year or brackish) sea ice. For Arctic first year ice the modeled thickness sensitivity is roughly half a meter. It reduces to a few centimeters for temperatures approaching the melting point. Although the campaign was conducted under such unfavorable melting conditions and despite limited spatial overlap between the L-band and EM-measurements was small we demonstrate a large potential for retrieving the ice thickness in the range of 0.2 to 1.5 m. Furthermore, we show that the ice thickness derived from SMOS measurements would be complementary to ESA's CryoSat-2 mission in terms of the error characteristics and the spatio-temporal coverage.

Description: Glacier mass balance changes lead to geometry changes and vice versa. To include this interdependence in the response of glaciers to climate change, models should include an interactive scheme coupling mass balance and ice dynamics. In this study, we couple a spatially distributed mass balance model to a two-dimensional ice-flow model and apply this coupled model to the ice cap Hardangerjøkulen in southern Norway. The available glacio-meteorological records, mass balance and glacier length change measurements were utilized for model calibration and validation. Driven with meteorological data from nearby synoptic weather stations, the coupled model realistically simulated the observed mass balance and glacier length changes during the 20th century. The mean climate for the period 1961–1990, computed from local meteorological data, was used as a basis to prescribe climate projections for the 21st century at Hardangerjøkulen. For a projected temperature increase of 3°C from 1961–1990 to 2071–2100, the modelled net mass balance soon becomes negative at all altitudes and Hardangerjøkulen disappears around the year 2100. The projected changes in the other meteorological variables could at most partly compensate for the effect of the projected warming.

Description: Multi-channel ground-penetrating radar was applied at a permafrost site on the Tibetan Plateau to investigate the influence of surface properties and soil texture on the late-summer thaw depth and average soil moisture content of the active layer. Measurements were conducted on an approximately 85×60 m2 sized area with surface and soil textural properties that ranged from medium to coarse textured bare soil to finer textured, vegetated areas covered with fine, wind blown sand, and it included the bed of a gravel road. The survey allowed a clear differentiation of the various units. It showed (i) a shallow thaw depth and low average soil moisture content below the sand-covered, vegetated area, (ii) an intermediate thaw depth and high average soil moisture content along the gravel road, and (iii) an intermediate to deep thaw depth and low to intermediate average soil moisture content in the bare soil terrain. From our measurements, we found plausible hypotheses for the permafrost processes at this site leading to the observed late-summer thaw depth and soil moisture conditions. The study clearly indicates the complicated interactions between surface and subsurface state variables and processes in this environment. In addition, the survey demonstrates the potential of multi-channel ground-penetrating radar to efficiently map thaw depth and soil moisture content of the active layer with high spatial resolution at scales from a few meters to a few kilometers.

Description: Up to now an efficient 3-D geophysical mapping of the subsurface in mountainous environments with rough terrain has not been possible. A merging approach of several closely spaced 2-D electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) surveys to build up a quasi-3-D model of the electrical resistivity is presented herein as a practical compromise for inferring subsurface characteristics and lithology. The ERT measurements were realised in a small glacier forefield in the Swiss Alps with complex terrain exhibiting a small scale spatial variability of surface substrate. To build up the grid for the quasi-3-D measurements the ERT surveys were arranged as parallel profiles and perpendicular tie lines. The measured 2-D datasets were collated into one quasi-3-D file. A forward modelling approach – based on studies at a permafrost site below timberline – was used to optimize the geophysical survey design for the mapping of the mountain permafrost distribution in the investigated glacier forefield. Quasi-3-D geoelectrical imaging is a useful method for mapping of heterogeneous frozen ground conditions and can be considered as a further milestone in the application of near surface geophysics in mountain permafrost environments.

Description: Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica, has been undergoing several related changes for at least two decades; these include acceleration, thinning and grounding line retreat. During the first major ground-based study between 2006 and 2008, GPS receivers were used to monitor ice flow from 55 km to 171 km inland, along the central flowline. At four sites both acceleration and thinning rates over the last two years exceeded rates observed at any other time over the last two decades. At the downstream site acceleration was 6.4% over 2007 and thinning was 3.5±0.5 ma−1. Acceleration and thinning have spread rapidly inland with the acceleration 171 km inland at 4.1% over 2007, greater than any measured annual flow increase along the whole glacier prior to 2006. Increases in surface slope, and hence gravitational driving stress, correlate well with the acceleration and no sustained change in longitudinal stress gradient is needed to explain the force balance. There is no indication that the glacier is approaching a new steady state.

Description: Even though the specific surface area (SSA) of snow is a crucial variable to determine the chemical and climatic impact of the snow cover, few data are available on snow SSA because current measurement methods are not simple to use in the field or do not have a sufficient accuracy. We propose here a novel determination method based on the measurement of the hemispherical reflectance of snow in the infrared using the DUFISSS instrument (DUal Frequency Integrating Sphere for Snow SSA measurement). DUFISSS uses 1310 and 1550 nm radiation provided by laser diodes, an integrating sphere 15 cm in diameter, and InGaAs photodiodes. For SSA60 m2 kg−1, snow is usually of low to very low density (typically 30 to 100 kg m−3) and this produces artifacts caused by the e-folding length of light in snow being too long. We therefore use 1550 nm radiation for SSA〉60 m2 kg−1. Reflectance is then in the range 5 to 12%, and the accuracy is 12%. No effect of crystal shape on reflectance was detected. We propose empirical equations to determine SSA from reflectance at both wavelengths, with that for 1310 nm taking into account the snow density. DUFISSS has been tested in the Alps to measure the snow area index (SAI) of the Alpine snowpack in a south facing area at 2100 m elevation. This was done by measuring the SSA, thickness and density of the seven main layers of the snowpack in just 30 min, and a value of 5350 was found, significantly greater than in Arctic and subarctic regions. DUFISSS can now be used to help study issues related to polar and Alpine atmospheric chemistry and climate.

Description: In this study we apply a simple and reliable method to derive recent changes in glacier area and volume by taking advantage of high resolution LIDAR (light detection and ranging) DEMs (digital elevation models) from the year 2006. Together with two existing glacier inventories (1969 and 1997) the new dataset enables to quantify area and volume changes over the past 37 years at three dates. This has been done for 81 glaciers (116 km2) in the Ötztal Alps which accounts for almost one third of Austria's glacier extent. Glacier area and volume have reduced drastically with significant differences within the individual size classes. Between 1997 and 2006 an overall area loss of 10.5 km2 or 8.2% occurred. Volume has reduced by 1.0 km3 which accounts for a mean thickness change of −8.2 m. The availability of three comparable inventories allows a comprehensive analysis of glacier changes over all size classes but lacks a high temporal resolution. We therefore used glacier length as well as mass balance measurements from all available glaciers within the study area to analyse the potential temporal course of glacier changes in terms of area and volume which allows a rough estimation of mean annual area and volume changes and thus acceleration trends. Comparing the net retreating period between 1969 and 1997 with the period 1997 to 2006, the analysis reveals that mean annual absolute area losses have remained constant. Relative area losses have accelerated slightly whereas volume as well as mean thickness losses have accelerated significantly.

Description: We propose a new approach to indirectly estimate basal properties of a glacier, i.e. bedrock topography and basal slipperiness, from observations of surface topography and surface velocities. We demonstrate how a maximum a posteriori estimate of basal conditions can be determined using a Bayesian inference approach in a combination with an analytical linearisation of the forward model. Using synthetic data we show that for non-linear media and non-linear sliding law only a few forward-step model evaluations are needed for convergence. The forward step is solved with a numerical finite-element model using the full Stokes equations. Forward Fréchet derivatives are approximated through analytical small-perturbation solutions. This approximation is a key feature of the method and the effects of this approximation on model performance are analyzed. The number of iterations needed for convergence increases with the amplitude of the basal perturbations, but generally less than ten iterations are needed.

Description: We describe the climatology from a meteorological dataset acquired from automatic weather station observations done in the ablation zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet between 2001 and 2007. Stations were placed in three regions below the polar circle: on the southern tip of the ice sheet, on a calving glacier in the Nuuk fjord, and on the south-eastern ice margin near Tasiilaq. The yearly cycles in temperature, relative humidity and wind speed reveal the largest variability in wintertime, causing annual values to depend largely on winter values. Adding to wintertime variability are extremely strong and cold katabatic wind events in the southeast ("piteraqs"). During summer no pronounced daily cycle in near-surface atmospheric parameters is recorded in the three regions, in spite of a large cycle in solar radiation, dominantly regulating surface melt. Net ablation is largest at the southernmost station due to low surface albedo, and can be up to six metres per year, but is highly sensitive to the timing of the start of the ice ablation season. Illustrative of this is that similar ablation amounts are found in the Nuuk fjord region where little or no snow accumulates in winter.

Description: Although it is well known that radar waves penetrate into snow and sea ice, the exact mechanisms for radar-altimeter scattering and its link to the depth of the effective scattering surface from sea ice are still unknown. Previously proposed mechanisms linked the snow ice interface, i.e. the dominating scattering horizon, directly with the depth of the effective scattering surface. However, simulations using a multilayer radar scattering model show that the effective scattering surface is affected by snow-cover and ice properties. With the coming Cryosat-2 (planned launch 2009) satellite radar altimeter it is proposed that sea ice thickness can be derived by measuring its freeboard. In this study we evaluate the radar altimeter sea ice thickness retrieval uncertainty in terms of floe buoyancy, radar penetration and ice type distribution using both a scattering model and ''Archimedes' principle''. The effect of the snow cover on the floe buoyancy and the radar penetration and on the ice cover spatial and temporal variability is assessed from field campaign measurements in the Arctic and Antarctic. In addition to these well known uncertainties we use high resolution RADARSAT SAR data to simulate errors due to the variability of the effective scattering surface as a result of the sub-footprint spatial backscatter and elevation distribution sometimes called preferential sampling. In particular in areas where ridges represent a significant part of the ice volume (e.g. the Lincoln Sea) the simulated altimeter thickness estimate is lower than the real average footprint thickness. This means that the errors are large, yet manageable if the relevant quantities are known a priori. A discussion of the radar altimeter ice thickness retrieval uncertainties concludes the paper.

Description: The proposed method presents a simple and robust way to derive glacier extent by using multi-temporal high-resolution DEMs (digital elevation models) as a main data source. For glaciers that are not debris covered, we perform the glacier boundary delineation by analysing roughness differences between ice and its surroundings. A promising way to distinguish dead ice, debris-covered ice or permafrost from its rocky surroundings is shown by taking elevation changes from DEMs of different dates into consideration. In case data has a high spatial and temporal resolution a good representation of the extent of debris cover and thus the overall ice covered area can be given. We use examples to show how potentially ambiguous areas can be treated decisively by the additional qualitative analysis of aerial photographs. Problems and limitations are discussed in comparison with selected other remote sensing techniques and accuracies are quantified. For glaciers larger than 1 km2 an accuracy of ±1% of the glacier area could be assessed. The errors of smaller glaciers do not exceed ±5% of the glacier area.

Description: A three-dimensional, thermo-mechanically coupled ice flow model with induced aniso-tropy has been applied to a ~200×200 km domain around the Dome Fuji drill site, Antarctica. The model ("Elmer/Ice") is based on the open-source multi-physics package Elmer (http://www.csc.fi/elmer/) and solves the full-Stokes equations. Flow-induced anisotropy in ice is accounted for by an implementation of the Continuum-mechanical, Anisotropic Flow model, based on an anisotropic Flow Enhancement factor ("CAFFE model"). Steady-state simulations for present-day climate conditions are conducted. The main findings are: (i) the flow regime at Dome Fuji is a complex superposition of vertical compression, horizontal extension and bed-parallel shear; (ii) for a geothermal heat flux of 60 mW m−2 the basal temperature at Dome Fuji reaches the pressure melting point and the basal melting rate is ~1 mm a−1; (iii) the fabric shows a weak single maximum at Dome Fuji, which increases the age of the ice compared to an isotropic scenario; (iv) as a consequence of spatially variable basal melting conditions, and contrary to intuition, the basal age is smaller where the ice is thicker and larger where the ice is thinner. The latter result is of great relevance for the consideration of a future drill site in the area.

Description: Independent measurements of radiation, sensible and latent heat fluxes and the ground heat flux are used to describe the annual cycle of the surface energy budget at a high-arctic permafrost site on Svalbard. During summer, the net short-wave radiation is the dominant energy source, while well developed turbulent processes and the heat flux in the ground lead to a cooling of the surface. About 15% of the net radiation is consumed by the seasonal thawing of the active layer in July and August. The Bowen ratio is found to vary between 0.25 and 2, depending on water content of the uppermost soil layer. During the polar night in winter, the net long-wave radiation is the dominant energy loss channel for the surface, which is mainly compensated by the sensible heat flux and, to a lesser extent, by the ground heat flux, which originates from the refreezing of the active layer. The average annual sensible heat flux of −6.9 Wm−2 is composed of strong positive fluxes in July and August, while negative fluxes dominate during the rest of the year. With 6.8 Wm−2, the latent heat flux more or less compensates the sensible heat flux in the annual average. Strong evaporation occurs during the snow melt period and particularly during the snow-free period in summer and fall. When the ground is covered by snow, latent heat fluxes through sublimation of snow are recorded, but are insignificant for the average surface energy budget. The near-surface atmospheric stratification is found to be predominantly unstable to neutral, when the ground is snow-free, and stable to neutral for snow-covered ground. Due to long-lasting near-surface inversions in winter, an average temperature difference of approximately 3 K exists between the air temperature at 10 m height and the surface temperature of the snow. As such comprehensive data sets are sparse for the Arctic, they are of great value to improve process understanding and support modeling efforts on the present-day and future arctic climate and permafrost conditions.

Description: In this study we apply a simple and reliable method to derive recent changes in glacier area and volume by taking advantage of high resolution LIDAR (light detection and ranging) DEMs (digital elevation models) from the year 2006. Together with two existing glacier inventories (1969 and 1997) the new dataset enables us to quantify area and volume changes over the past 37 years at three dates. This has been done for 81 glaciers (116 km2) in the Ötztal Alps which accounts for almost one third of Austria's glacier extent. Glacier area and volume have reduced drastically with significant differences within the individual size classes. Between 1997 and 2006 an overall area loss of 10.5 km2 or 8.2% occurred. Volume has reduced by 1.0 km3 which accounts for a mean thickness change of −8.2 m. The availability of three comparable inventories allows a comprehensive size and altitude dependent analysis of glacier changes but lacks a high temporal resolution. For the comparison of rates of changes between the two different periods (1969 to 1997 with 1997 to 2006) we propose two approaches in this study: a) to estimate mean overall rates of changes (including a period of advance) and b) to extract periods of net-retreat by using additional information (length change and mass balance measurements). Analysis of the resulting acceleration factors reveals that the retreat of volume and mean thickness changes has accelerated significantly more than that of area changes.

Description: We have developed a new digital elevation model (DEM) of Antarctica from a combination of satellite radar and laser altimeter data. Here, we assess the accuracy of the DEM by comparison with airborne altimeter data from four campaigns covering a wide range of surface slopes and ice sheet regions. Root mean squared (RMS) differences varied from 4.75 m, when compared to a densely gridded airborne dataset over the Siple Coast region of West Antarctica to 33.78 m when compared to a more limited dataset over the Antarctic Peninsula where surface slopes are high and the across track spacing of the satellite data is relatively large. The airborne data sets were employed to produce an error map for the DEM by developing a multiple linear regression model based on the variables known to influence errors in the DEM. Errors were found to correlate highly with surface slope, roughness and density of satellite data points. Errors ranged from typically ~1 m over the ice shelves to between about 2 and 6 m for the majority of the grounded ice sheet. In the steeply sloping margins, along the Peninsula and mountain ranges the estimated error is several tens of metres. Less than 2% of the area covered by the satellite data had an estimated random error greater than 20 m.

Description: Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica, has been undergoing several related changes for at least two decades; these include acceleration, thinning and grounding line retreat. During the first major ground-based study between 2006 and 2008, GPS receivers were used to monitor ice flow from 55 km to 171 km inland, along the central flowline. At four sites both acceleration and thinning rates over the last two years exceeded rates observed at any other time over the last two decades. At the downstream site acceleration was 6.4% over 2007 and thinning was 3.5±0.5 ma−1. Acceleration and thinning have spread rapidly inland with the acceleration 171 km inland at 4.1% over 2007, greater than any measured annual flow increase along the whole glacier prior to 2006. Increases in surface slope, and hence gravitational driving stress, correlate well with the acceleration and no sustained change in longitudinal stress gradient is needed to explain the force balance. There is no indication that the glacier is approaching a new steady state.

Description: Radio-echo sounding of the Antarctic and Greenlandic ice sheets often reveals a layer in the lowest hundreds of meters above bedrock more or less free of radio echoes, known as the echo-free zone (EFZ). The cause of this feature is unclear, so far lacking direct evidence for its origin. We compare echoes around the EPICA drill site in Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, with the dielectric properties, crystal orientation fabrics and optical stratigraphy of the EPICA-DML ice core. We find that echoes disappear in the depth range where the dielectric contrast is blurred, and where the coherency of the layers in the ice core is lost due to disturbances caused by the ice flow. At the drill site, the EFZ onset at ~2100 m marks a boundary, below which the ice core may have experienced flow induced disturbances on various scales. The onset may indicate changing rheology which needs to be accounted for in the modeling of ice sheet dynamics.

Description: Energy balance based glacier melt models require accurate estimates of incoming longwave radiation but direct measurements are often not available. Multi-year near-surface meteorological data from Storglaciären, Northern Sweden, were used to evaluate commonly used longwave radiation parameterizations in a glacier environment under clear-sky and all-sky conditions. Parameterizations depending solely on air temperature performed worse than those which include water vapor pressure. All models tended to overestimate incoming longwave radiation during periods of low longwave radiation, while incoming longwave was underestimated when radiation was high. Under all-sky conditions root mean square error (RMSE) and mean bias error (MBE) were 17 to 20 W m−2 and −5 to 1 W m−2, respectively. Two attempts were made to circumvent the need of cloud cover data. First cloud fraction was parameterized as a function of the ratio, τ, of measured incoming shortwave radiation and calculated top of atmosphere radiation. Second, τ was related directly to the cloud factor (i.e. the increase in sky emissivity due to clouds). Despite large scatter between τ and both cloud fraction and the cloud factor, resulting calculations of hourly incoming longwave radiation for both approaches were only slightly more variable with RMSE roughly 3 W m−2 larger compared to using cloud observations as input. This is promising for longwave radiation modeling in areas where shortwave radiation data are available but cloud observations are not.

Description: Snow on the ground impacts climate through its high albedo and affects atmospheric composition through its ability to adsorb chemical compounds. The quantification of these effects requires the knowledge of the specific surface area (SSA) of snow and its rate of change. All relevant studies indicate that snow SSA decreases over time. Here, we report for the first time three cases where the SSA of snow increased over time. These are (1) the transformation of a melt-freeze crust into depth hoar, producing an increase in SSA from 3.4 to 8.8 m2 kg−1. (2) The mobilization of surface snow by wind, which reduced the size of snow crystals by sublimation and fragmented them. This formed a surface snow layer with a SSA of 61 m2 kg−1 from layers whose SSAs were originally 42 and 50 m2 kg−1. (3) The sieving of blowing snow by a snow layer, which allowed the smallest crystals to penetrate into open spaces in the snow, leading to an SSA increase from 32 to 61 m2 kg−1. We discuss that other mechanisms for SSA increase are possible. Overall, SSA increases are probably not rare. They lead to enhanced uptake of chemical compounds and to increases in snow albedo, and their inclusion in relevant chemical and climate models deserves consideration.

Description: We compare 5 years of meteorological records from automatic weather stations (AWSs) on Storbreen and Midtdalsbreen, two glaciers in southern Norway, located approximately 120 km apart. The records are obtained from identical AWSs with an altitude difference of 120 m and cover the period September 2001 to September 2006. Air temperature at the AWS locations is found to be highly correlated, even with the seasonal cycle removed. The most striking difference between the two sites is the difference in wind climate. Midtdalsbreen is much more under influence of the large-scale circulation with wind speeds on average a factor 1.75 higher. On Storbreen, weaker katabatic winds are dominant. The main melt season is from May to September at both locations. During the melt season, incoming and net solar radiation are larger on Midtdalsbreen, whereas incoming and net longwave radiation are larger on Storbreen, primarily caused by thicker clouds on the latter. The turbulent fluxes are a factor 1.7 larger on Midtdalsbreen, mainly due to the higher wind speeds. Inter-daily fluctuations in the surface energy fluxes are very similar at the AWS sites. On average, melt energy is a factor 1.3 larger on Midtdalsbreen, a result of both larger net radiation and larger turbulent fluxes. The relative contribution of net radiation to surface melt is larger on Storbreen (76%) than on Midtdalsbreen (66%). As winter snow depth at the two locations is comparable in most years, the larger amount of melt energy results in an earlier disappearance of the snowpack on Midtdalsbreen and 70% more ice melt than on Storbreen. We compare the relative and absolute values of the energy fluxes on Storbreen and Midtdalsbreen with reported values for glaciers at similar latitudes. Furthermore, a comparison is made with meteorological variables measured at two nearby weather stations, showing that on-site measurements are essential for an accurate calculation of the surface energy balance and melt rate.

Description: Rises in surface and lower troposphere air temperatures through the 21st century are projected to be especially pronounced over the Arctic Ocean during the cold season. This Arctic amplification is largely driven by loss of the sea ice cover, allowing for strong heat transfers from the ocean to the atmosphere. Consistent with observed reductions in sea ice extent, fields from both the NCEP/NCAR and JRA-25 reanalyses point to emergence of surface-based Arctic amplification in the last decade.

Description: Measurements of the summer surface energy balance at Summit, Greenland, are presented (8 June–20 July 2007). These measurements serve as input to an energy balance model that searches for a surface temperature for which closure of all energy terms is achieved. A good agreement between observed and modelled surface temperatures was found, with an average difference of 0.45°C and an RMSE of 0.85°C. It turns out that penetration of shortwave radiation into the snowpack plays a small but important role in correctly simulating snow temperatures. After 42 days, snow temperatures in the first meter are 3.6–4.0°C higher compared to a model simulation without radiation penetration. Sensitivity experiments show that these results cannot be reproduced by tuning the heat conduction process alone, by varying snow density or snow diffusivity. We compared the two-stream radiation penetration calculations with a sophisticated radiative transfer model and discuss the differences. The average diurnal cycle shows that net shortwave radiation is the largest energy source (diurnal average of +61 W m−2), net longwave radiation the largest energy sink (−42 W m−2). On average, subsurface heat flux, sensible and latent heat fluxes are the remaining, small heat sinks (−5, −5 and −7 W m−2, respectively), although these are more important on a subdaily timescale.

Description: The annual evolution of the ground temperatures from Incinerador borehole in Livingston Island (South Shetlands, Antarctic) is studied. The borehole is 2.4 m deep and is located in a massive quartzite outcrop with negligible water content, in the proximity of the Spanish Antarctic Station Juan Carlos I. In order to model the movement of the 0°C isotherm (velocity and maximum depth) hourly temperature profiles from: (i) the cooling periods of the frost season of 2000 to 2005, and (ii) the warming periods of the thaw season of 2002–2003, 2003–2004 and 2004–2005, were studied. In this modelling approach, heat gains and losses across the ground surface are assumed to be the causes for the 0°C isotherm movement. A methodological approach to calculate the ground Enthalpy change based on the thermodynamic analysis of the ground during the cooling and warming periods is proposed. The Enthalpy change into the rock is equivalent to the heat exchange through the ground surface during each season, thus enabling to describe the interaction ground-atmosphere and providing valuable data for studies on permafrost and periglacial processes. The bedrock density and thermal conductivity are considered to be constant and initial isothermal conditions at 0°C are assumed (based in collected data and local meteorological conditions in this area) to run the model in the beginning of each season. The final stages correspond to the temperatures at the end of the cooling and warming periods (annual minima and maxima). The application of this method avoids error propagation induced by the heat exchange calculations from multiple sensors using the Fourier method.

Description: The chemistry of snow and ice cores from Svalbard is influenced by variations in local sea ice margin and distance to open water. Snow pits sampled at two summits of Vestfonna ice cap (Nordaustlandet, Svalbard), exhibit spatially heterogeneous soluble ions concentrations despite similar accumulation rates, reflecting the importance of small-scale weather patterns on this island ice cap. The snow pack on the western summit shows higher average values of marine ions and a winter snow layer that is relatively depleted in sulphate. One part of the winter snow pack exhibits a [SO42-/Na+] ratio reduced by two thirds compared with its ratio in sea water. This low sulphate content in winter snow is interpreted as the signature of frost flowers, which are formed on young sea ice when offshore winds predominate. Frost flowers have been described as the dominant source of sea salt to aerosol and precipitation in ice cores in coastal Antarctica but this is the first time their chemical signal has been described in the Arctic. The eastern summit does not show any frost flower signature and we interpret the unusually dynamic ice transport and rapid formation of thin ice on the Hinlopen Strait as the source of the frost flowers.

Description: In high mountain areas, permafrost is important because it influences the occurrence of natural hazards, because it has to be considered in construction practices, and because it is sensitive to climate change. The assessment of its distribution and evolution is challenging because of highly variable conditions at and below the surface, steep topography and varying climatic conditions. This paper presents a systematic investigation of effects of topography and climate variability that are important for subsurface temperatures in Alpine bedrock permafrost. We studied the effects of both, past and projected future ground surface temperature variations on the basis of numerical experimentation with simplified mountain topography in order to demonstrate the principal effects. The modeling approach applied combines a distributed surface energy balance model and a three-dimensional subsurface heat conduction scheme. Results show that the past climate variations that essentially influence present-day permafrost temperatures at depth of the idealized mountains are the last glacial period and the major fluctuations in the past millennium. Transient effects from projected future warming, however, are likely larger than those from past climate conditions because larger temperature changes at the surface occur in shorter time periods. We further demonstrate the accelerating influence of multi-lateral warming in steep and complex topography for a temperature signal entering the subsurface as compared to the situation in flat areas. The effects of varying and uncertain material properties (i.e., thermal properties, porosity, and freezing characteristics) on the subsurface temperature field were examined in sensitivity studies. A considerable influence of latent heat due to water in low-porosity bedrock was only shown for simulations over time periods of decades to centuries. At the end, the model was applied to the topographic setting of the Matterhorn (Switzerland). Results from idealized geometries are compared to this first example of real topography, and possibilities as well as limitations of the model application are discussed.

Description: We present steady state (diagnostic) and transient (prognostic) simulations of Midtre Lovénbreen, Svalbard performed with the thermo-mechanically coupled full-Stokes code Elmer. This glacier has an extensive data set of geophysical measurements available spanning several decades, that allow for constraints on model descriptions. Consistent with this data set, we included a simple model accounting for the formation of superimposed ice. Diagnostic results indicated that a dynamic adaptation of the free surface is necessary, to prevent non-physically high velocities in a region of under determined bedrock depths. Observations from ground penetrating radar of the basal thermal state agree very well with model predictions, while the dip angles of isochrones in radar data also match reasonably well with modelled isochrones, despite the numerical deficiencies of estimating ages with a steady state model. Prognostic runs for 53 years, using a constant accumulation/ablation pattern starting from the steady state solution obtained from the configuration of the 1977 DEM show that: 1 the unrealistic velocities in the under determined parts of the DEM quickly damp out; 2 the free surface evolution matches well measured elevation changes; 3 the retreat of the glacier under this scenario continues with the glacier tongue in a projection to 2030 being situated ≈500 m behind the position in 1977.

Description: Digital elevation models (DEMs) of the whole of Antarctica have been derived, previously, from satellite radar altimetry (SRA) and limited terrestrial data. Near the ice sheet margins and in other areas of steep relief the SRA data tend to have relatively poor coverage and accuracy. To remedy this and to extend the coverage beyond the latitudinal limit of the SRA missions (81.5° S) we have combined laser altimeter measurements from the Geosciences Laser Altimeter System onboard ICESat with SRA data from the geodetic phase of the ERS-1 satellite mission. The former provide decimetre vertical accuracy but with poor spatial coverage. The latter have excellent spatial coverage but a poorer vertical accuracy. By combining the radar and laser data using an optimal approach we have maximised the vertical accuracy and spatial resolution of the DEM and minimised the number of grid cells with an interpolated elevation estimate. We assessed the optimum resolution for producing a DEM based on a trade-off between resolution and interpolated cells, which was found to be 1 km. This resulted in just under 32% of grid cells having an interpolated value. The accuracy of the final DEM was assessed using a suite of independent airborne altimeter data and used to produce an error map. The RMS error in the new DEM was found to be roughly half that of the best previous 5 km resolution, SRA-derived DEM, with marked improvements in the steeper marginal and mountainous areas and between 81.5 and 86° S. The DEM contains a wealth of information related to ice flow. This is particularly apparent for the two largest ice shelves – the Filchner-Ronne and Ross – where the surface expression of flow of ice streams and outlet glaciers can be traced from the grounding line to the calving front. The surface expression of subglacial lakes and other basal features are also illustrated. We also use the DEM to derive new estimates of balance velocities and ice divide locations.

Description: Sublimation plays a decisive role in the surface energy and mass balance of tropical glaciers. During the dry season (May–September) low specific humidity and high surface roughness favour the direct transition from ice to vapour and drastically reduce the energy available for melting. However, field measurements are scarce and little is known about the performance of sublimation parameterisations in glacier mass balance and runoff models. During 15 days in August 2005 sublimation was measured on the tongue of Glaciar Artesonraju (8°58' S, 77°38' W) in the Cordillera Blanca, Perú, using simple lysimeters. Indicating a strong dependence on surface roughness, daily totals of sublimation range from 1–3 kg m−2 for smooth to 2–5 kg m−2 for rough conditions. (The 15-day means at that time of wind speed and specific humidity were 4.3 m s−1 and 3.8 g kg−1, respectively.) Measured sublimation was related to characteristic surface roughness lengths for momentum (zm) and for the scalar quantities of temperature and water vapour (zs), using a process-based mass balance model. Input data were provided by automatic weather stations, situated on the glacier tongue at 4750 m a.s.l. and 4810 m a.s.l., respectively. Under smooth conditions the combination zm=2.0 mm and zs=1.0 mm appeared to be most appropriate, for rough conditions zm=20.0 mm and zs=10.0 mm fitted best. Extending the sublimation record from April 2004 to December 2005 with the process-based model confirms, that sublimation shows a clear seasonality. 60–90% of the energy available for ablation is consumed by sublimation in the dry season, but only 10–15% in the wet season (October–April). The findings are finally used to evaluate the parameterisation of sublimation in the lower-complexity mass balance model ITGG, which has the advantage of requiring precipitation and air temperature as only input data. It turns out that the implementation of mean wind speed is a possible improvement for the representation of sublimation in the ITGG model.

Description: The Wilkins Ice Shelf is situated on the Antarctic Peninsula, a region where seven ice shelves disintegrated or retreated between 1995 and 2002. This study combines various remote sensing datasets from Wilkins Ice Shelf, with the aim of detecting its present and recent dynamics as well as recent changes. The survey includes structural mapping, ERS-1/2 SAR interferometry and analysis of ICESat GLAS ice surface elevation data. Ice front retreat rates from 1986 to 2008 showed several distinct break-up events, including one in February 2008, when 40% of a part of the ice shelf that connected two islands broke off. Surface elevations have been used to study tidal effects, crack formation and to estimate the ice thickness over the floating area. The derived interferometric velocities cover the south-eastern part of the ice shelf as well as major tributaries and reveal maximum inflow speeds of up to 330 m a−1. We show that drainage of melt ponds into crevasses were of no relevance for the break-up at Wilkins Ice Shelf. Buoyancy forces caused rift formation before the break-up in February 2008. Additionally, the evolution of failure zones of the order of tenths of kilometres in length in pre-conditioned locations at ice rises is shown. Investigation of the current (February 2009) situation shows that about 3100 km2 at the Northern Wilkins Ice Shelf are endangered, however, there is no visible signature that the remaining 8000 km2 are at risk.

Description: Antarctic sea ice cover has shown a slight increase (

Description: In order to explore the response of the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) to climate change on long (centennial to multi-millennial) time scales, a regional energy-moisture balance model has been developed. This model simulates seasonal variations of temperature and precipitation over Greenland and explicitly accounts for elevation and albedo feedbacks. These fields are used to force a high resolution ice sheet model through the annual mean surface temperature and mass balance. The melt component of the mass balance is computed here using both a conventional positive degree day approach and a more physically-based alternative. As a validation of the model, we first simulated temperature and precipitation over Greenland for the prescribed, present-day topography of Greenland and compared them with empirical data. For the present-day climate, simulated surface boundary conditions for the GIS do not differ significantly from those of a simple parameterization used in many previous simulations. However, for a prescribed, ice-free state, the differences in simulated climatology and surface mass balance between the regional energy-moisture balance model and the conventional approach become significant, with our model showing much stronger summer warming. When coupled to a high resolution, three-dimensional ice sheet model and initialized with present-day conditions, the two melt schemes both allow sufficiently realistic simulations of the present-day GIS. However, when starting from ice-free conditions, two different equilibrium states are achieved, depending on the choice of melt scheme.

Description: Radio-echo sounding of the Antarctic and Greenlandic ice sheets often reveals a layer in the lowest hundreds of meters above bedrock more or less free of radio echoes, known as the echo-free zone (EFZ). The cause of this feature is unclear, so far lacking direct evidence for its origin. We compare echoes around the EPICA drill site in Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, with the microstructural and dielectrical properties of the EPICA-DML ice core. We find that echoes disappear in the depth range, where the coherency of the layers is lost due to disturbances caused by the ice flow. At the drill site, the EFZ onset at ~2100 m marks a boundary, below which the ice core may have experienced flow induced disturbances on various scales. The dating of the climate record becomes increasingly difficult below 1900 m, until correlation with the Dome C record is lost below 2417 m depth. The onset also indicates changing rheology which needs to be accounted for in the modeling of ice sheet dynamics.

Description: We present velocity observations of a glacier outlet in Vatnajökull, Iceland, deduced from interferometric SAR (InSAR) data obtained during the ERS1/2 tandem mission in 1995–2000. More than 50% decrease in glacier motion was observed subsequent to a large jökulhlaup from the subglacial lake Grímsvötn in 1996. The glacier had not reached its former flow rate in 2000. The jökulhlaup damaged the lake's ice-dam causing persistent drainage from the lake. InSAR based studies of water accumulation within Grímsvötn suggest that a leakage of 〉3 m3 s−1 prevailed throughout our study period. We suggest that the lake leakage kept open a tunnel at low water pressure underneath the whole length of the glacier. The tunnel flow drained water from its surroundings, hence lowering the water pressure of a distributed drainage system, underneath the upper and centre part of the glacier, which prior to the jökulhlaup sustained significant basal sliding. This is in accordance with theoretical prediction that tunnel flow in a steady state may cause slow-down in glacier motion by reducing the subglacial water pressure. The width of the affected areas was ~5 km on the upper part of the glacier and ~8 km on the centre part of the glacier. This indicates that the water pressure reduction propagates laterally from the tunnel over a distance of a few km.

Description: For temperate alpine glaciers survival is dependent on the consistent presence of an accumulation zone. The lack of a consistent and persistent accumulation zone leads to substantial thinning of the glacier in the accumulation zone. Accumulation zone thinning is evident in satellite imagery or field observation based the emergence of new rock outcrops or the recession of the margin of the glacier in the accumulation zone along a substantial portion of its perimeter. In either case the accumulation zone is no longer functioning as an accumulation zone and survival is unlikely. In both the North Cascades and Wind River Range nine of the fifteen glaciers examined are forecast not to survive the current climate or future additional warming. The results vary considerably with adjacent glaciers having a different survival forecast. This emphasizes the danger of extrapolating survival from one glacier to the next. This trait also emphasizes the value of a simple forecasting tool that can be applied to all glaciers. The automated remote sensing based glacier classification schemes developed offer the potential for automating this process based on the changes in the glacier outline.

Description: Measurements of the summer surface energy balance at Summit, Greenland, are presented (8 June–20 July 2007). These measurements serve as input to an energy balance model that searches for a surface temperature for which closure of all energy terms is achieved. A good agreement between observed and modeled surface temperatures was found, with an average difference of 0.45°C and an RMSE of 0.85°C. It turns out that penetration of shortwave radiation into the snowpack plays a small but important role in correctly simulating snow temperatures. After 42 days, snow temperatures in the first meter are 3.6–4.0°C higher compared to a model simulation without radiation penetration. Sensitivity experiments show that these results cannot be reproduced by tuning the heat conduction process alone, by varying snow density or snow diffusivity. We compared the two-stream radiation penetration calculations with a sophisticated radiative transfer model and discuss the differences. The average diurnal cycle shows that net shortwave radiation is the largest energy source (+61 W m−2 on average), net longwave radiation the largest energy sink (−42 W m−2). On average, subsurface heat flux, sensible and latent heat fluxes are the remaining, small heat sinks (−5, −5 and −7 W m−2, respectively), although these are more important on a subdaily timescale.

Description: Glacier volume response time is a measure of the time taken for a glacier to adjust its geometry to a climate change. It is currently believed that the volume response time is given approximately by the ratio of glacier thickness to ablation at the glacier terminus. We propose a new conceptual model of glacier hypsometry (area-altitude relation) and derive the volume response time where climatic and topographic parameters are separated. The former is expressed by mass balance gradients which we derive from glacier-climate modelling and the latter are quantified with data from the World Glacier Inventory. Aside from the well-known scaling relation between glacier volume and area, we establish a new scaling relation between glacier altitude range and area, and evaluate it for seven regions. The presence of this scaling parameter in our response time formula accounts for the mass balance elevation feedback and leads to longer response times than given by the simple ratio of glacier thickness to ablation. Volume response times range from decades to thousands of years for glaciers in maritime (wet-warm) and continental (dry-cold) climates, respectively. The combined effect of volume-area and altitude-area scaling relations is such that volume response time can increase with glacier area (Axel Heiberg Island and Svalbard), hardly change (Northern Scandinavia, Southern Norway and the Alps) or even get smaller (The Caucasus and New Zealand).

Description: This study provides mapping and analysis of the maximum glacier extent during the "Little Ice Age" in Jotunheimen, Southern Norway, on a regional scale. Remote sensing techniques were used to map the glacier area at the maximum of the "Little Ice Age" (mid 18th century AD). For validation of the mapping, interpretation of existing glaciochronological studies, analysis of geomorphological maps and our own field measurements using GPS have been applied. The flow length of the glaciers and other inventory data were determined by using a Geographical Information System and a digital elevation model. A total of 233 glaciers existed during the "Little Ice Age" maximum in Jotunheimen, comprising an overall glacier area of about 290 km2. Mean glacier flow length was calculated as about 1.6 km. Until AD 2003, the area shrank by about 35% and the mean flow length decreased by about 34%, compared with the maximum "Little Ice Age" extent.

Description: The chemistry of snow and ice cores from Svalbard is influenced by variations in local sea ice margin and distance to open water. Snow pits sampled at two summits of Vestfonna ice cap (Nordaustlandet, Svalbard), exhibit spatially heterogeneous soluble ions concentrations despite similar accumulation rates, reflecting the importance of small-scale weather patterns on this island ice cap. The snow pack on the western summit shows higher average values of marine species and a winter snow layer that is relatively depleted in sulphate. One part of the winter snow pack exhibits [SO42-/Na+] ratio reduced by two thirds compared with its ratio in sea water. This low sulphate content in winter snow is interpreted as the signature of frost flowers, which are formed on young sea ice when offshore winds predominate. Frost flowers have been described as the dominant source of sea salt to aerosol and precipitation in ice cores in coastal Antarctica but this is the first time their chemical signal has been described in the Arctic. The eastern summit does not show any frost flower signature and we interpret the unusually dynamic ice transport and rapid formation of thin ice on the Hinlopen Strait as the source of the frost flowers.

Description: Different flowline thickness distributions and flowline length changes of the Gregoriev Ice Cap were obtained for some surface mass balance histories which can be considered as possible surface mass balances in the future. The ice cap modeling was performed by solving full Stokes equations in the form of one mechanical equilibrium equation in terms of stress deviator components in couple with continuity equation for incompressible substance. The numerical solution was obtained by the finite-difference method. The problem of diagnostic equations stability was overcome by a~compound approximation of the ice surface boundary condition based on the extending of the mechanical equilibrium equation to ice surface points. The problem of stability in the prognostic equation can arise at relatively small grid size in horizontal direction in the case of steep velocity decreasing closely to the ice front and was overcome by introducing the artificial viscosity into the prognostic equation. The basal sliding can arise in the glacier tongue at certain climatic conditions and was introduced through the linear friction law. The correlations between glacier length changes and annual air temperature histories were investigated within the simplified equation in the form of linear dependence of annual air temperature versus the glacier length and time derivation of the length.

Description: The dynamics and mass balance regime of the Austfonna ice cap, the largest glacier on Svalbard, deviate significantly from most other glaciers in the region and is not fully understood. We have compared ICESat laser altimetry, airborne laser altimetry, GNSS surface profiles and radio echo-sounding data to estimate elevation change rates for the periods 1983–2007 and 2002–2008. The data sets indicate a pronounced interior thickening of up to 0.5 m y−1, at the same time as the margins are thinning at a rate of 1–3 m y−1. The southern basins are thickening at a higher rate than the northern basins due to a higher accumulation rate. The overall volume change in the 2002–2008 period is estimated to be −1.3±0.5 km3 w.e. y−1 (or −0.16±0.06 m w.e. y−1) where the entire net loss is due to a rapid retreat of the calving fronts. Since most of the marine ice loss occurs below sea level, Austfonna's current contribution to sea level change is close to zero. The geodetic results are compared to in-situ mass balance measurements which indicate that the 2004–2008 surface net mass balance has been slightly positive (0.05 m w.e. y−1) though with large annual variations. Similarities between local net mass balances and local elevation changes indicate that most of the ice cap is dormant and not in dynamic equilibrium with the current climate. More knowledge is needed about century-scale dynamic processes in order to predict the future evolution of Austfonna based on climate scenarios.

Description: Subglacial lakes in Antarctica influence to a large extent the flow of the ice sheet. In this study we use an idealised lake geometry to study this impact. We employ a) an improved three-dimensional full Stokes ice flow model with a nonlinear rheology, b) a three-dimensional fluid dynamics model with eddy diffusion to simulate basal mass balance, and c) a newly developed coupler to exchange boundary conditions between individual models. Different boundary conditions are applied over grounded ice and floating ice. This results in significantly increased temperatures within the ice on top of the lake, compared to ice at the same depth outside the lake area. Basal melting of the ice sheet increases this lateral temperature gradient. Upstream the ice flow converges towards the lake and accelerates by about 10% whenever basal melting at the ice–lake boundary is present. Above and downstream of the lake, where the ice flow diverges, a velocity decrease of about 10% is simulated.

Description: Himalayan glaciers are considered to be amongst the most sensitive glaciers to climate change. However, the response behaviour of these glaciers is not well understood. Here we use several approaches to estimate characteristic timescales of glacier AX010, a small valley glacier in the Nepal Himalaya, as a measure of glacier sensitivity. Assuming that temperature solely defines the mass budget, glacier AX010 waits for about 8 yr (reaction time) to exhibit its initial terminus response to changing climate. On the other hand, it takes between 29–56 yr (volume response time) and 37–70 yr (length response time) to adjust its volume and length following the changes in mass balance conditions, respectively. A numerical ice-flow model, the only method that yields both length and volume response time, confirms that a glacier takes longer to adjust its length than its volume.

Description: Surface melt has been increasing over recent years, especially over the Antarctic Peninsula, contributing to disintegration of shelves such as Larsen. Unfortunately, we are not realistically able to quantify surface snowmelt from ground-based methods because there is sparse coverage of automatic weather stations. Satellite based assessments of melt from passive microwave systems are limited in that they only provide an indication of melt occurrence and have coarse spatial resolution. An algorithm was developed to retrieve surface melt magnitude using coupled near-IR/thermal surface measurements from MODIS were calibrated by estimates of liquid water fraction (LWF) in the upper 1 cm of the firn derived from a one-dimensional physical snowmelt model (SNTHERM89). For the modeling phase of this study, SNTHERM89 was forced by hourly meteorological data from automatic weather station data at reference sites spanning a range of melt conditions across the Ross Ice Shelf during a relatively intense melt season (2002). Effective melt magnitude or LWF were derived for satellite composite periods covering the Antarctic summer months at a 4 km resolution over the entire Ross Ice Shelf, ranging from 0–0.5% LWF in early December to areas along the coast with as much as 1% LWF during the time of peak surface melt. Spatial and temporal variations in the magnitude of surface melt are related to both katabatic wind strength and advection during onshore flow.

Description: The response of a viscous-plastic dynamic-thermodynamic sea-ice model to a constant wind forcing is tested in an idealised setting. Bjornsson et al. (2001) have shown that the granular model of Tremblay and Mysak (1997) gives good results in such a set-up compared to a polynya flux model. Here it is shown that these results can be duplicated using the computationally more efficient elliptic yield curve approach by Hibler (1979) and modified Coulombic yield curve by Hibler and Schulson (2000). Some care is, however, required regarding the parametrisations of the ellipse. In addition it is shown that the new ice thickness formulation of Mellor and Kantha (1989) does not allow for proper polynya formation in the bay. In contrast the new ice thickness formulation of Hibler (1979) is found to give good results. Finally we propose a parametrisation of the ice demarcation thickness (h0) in Hibler's formulation, based on wind speed and ice thickness.

Description: Independent measurements of radiation, sensible and latent heat fluxes and the ground heat flux are used to describe the annual cycle of the surface energy budget at a high-arctic permafrost site on Svalbard. During summer, the net short-wave radiation is the dominant energy source, while well developed turbulent processes and the heat flux in the ground lead to a cooling of the surface. About 15% of the net radiation is consumed by the seasonal thawing of the active layer in July and August. The Bowen ratio is found to vary between 0.25 and 2, depending on water content of the uppermost soil layer. During the polar night in winter, the net long-wave radiation is the dominant energy loss channel for the surface, which is mainly compensated by the sensible heat flux and, to a lesser extent, by the ground heat flux, which originates from the refreezing of the active layer. The average annual sensible heat flux of −6.9 Wm−2 is composed of strong positive fluxes in July and August, while negative fluxes dominate during the rest of the year. With 6.8 Wm−2, the latent heat flux more or less compensates the sensible heat flux in the annual average. Strong evaporation occurs during the snow melt period and particularly during the snow-free period in summer and fall. When the ground is covered by snow, latent heat fluxes through sublimation of snow are recorded, but are insignificant for the average surface energy budget. The near-surface atmospheric stratification is found to be predominantly unstable to neutral, when the ground is snow-free, and stable to neutral for snow-covered ground. Due to long-lasting near-surface inversions in winter, an average temperature difference of approximately 3 K exists between the air temperature at 10 m height and the surface temperature of the snow.

Description: Higher temperature and change in precipitation patterns have induced an acute decrease in Andean glaciers, thus leading to an additional stress on water supply. To adapt to climate changes, local governments need information on the rate of glacier volume losses and on current ice thickness. We show how volume changes can be accurately estimated in remote areas using readily available low-cost digital elevation models derived from both topographic maps and satellite images. They were used for estimating the volume changes over the Coropuna glacier (Peru) from 1955 to 2002. Ice thickness was measured in 2004 using a georadar coupled with Ground Positioning System during a field expedition. It provided profiles of ice thickness on different slopes, orientations and altitudes. These were used to model the current glacier volume using Geographical Information System and statistical multiple regressions techniques. Computers were modified to resists to high altitude (6500 m) temperatures and low pressure conditions. The results delineated a significant glacier volume loss and provided an estimate of the remaining ice. It provided the scientific evidence needed by local Peruvian NGO, COPASA, and the German Cooperation Program in order to alert local governments and communities and for enforcing new climate change adaptation policies.

Description: The specific surface area (SSA) of the snow constitutes a powerful parameter to quantify the exchange of matter and energy between the snow and the atmosphere. However, currently no snow physics model can simulate the SSA. Therefore, two different types of empirical parameterizations of the specific surface area (SSA) of snow are implemented into the existing one-dimensional snow physics model CROCUS. The parameterizations are either based on diagnostic equations relating the SSA to parameters like snow type and density or on prognostic equations that describe the change of SSA depending on snow age, snowpack temperature, and the temperature gradient within the snowpack. Simulations with the upgraded CROCUS model were performed for a subarctic snowpack, for which an extensive data set including SSA measurements is available at Fairbanks, Alaska for the winter season 2003/2004. While a reasonable agreement between simulated and observed SSA values is obtained using both parameterizations, the model tends to overestimate the SSA. This overestimation is more pronounced using the diagnostic equations compared to the results of the prognostic equations. Parts of the SSA deviations using both parameterizations can be attributed to differences between simulated and observed snow heights, densities, and temperatures. Therefore, further sensitivity studies regarding the thermal budget of the snowpack were performed. They revealed that reducing the heat conductivity of the snow or increasing the turbulent fluxes at the snow surfaces leads to a slight improvement of the simulated thermal budget of the snowpack compared to the observations. However, their impact on further simulated parameters like snow height and SSA remains small. Including additional physical processes in the snow model may have the potential to advance the simulations of the thermal budget of the snowpack and, thus, the SSA simulations.

Description: We present steady state (diagnostic) and transient (prognostic) simulations of Midtre Lovénbreen, Svalbard performed with the thermo-mechanically coupled full-Stokes code Elmer. This glacier has an extensive data set of geophysical measurements available spanning several decades, that allow for constraints on model descriptions. Consistent with this data set, we included a simple model accounting for the formation of superimposed ice. Diagnostic results indicated that a dynamic adaptation of the free surface is necessary, to prevent non-physically high velocities in a region of under determined bedrock depths. Prognostic runs for 53 years, using a constant accumulation/ablation pattern starting from the steady state solution obtained from the configuration of the 1977 DEM show that: 1 the unrealistic velocities in the under determined parts of the DEM quickly damp out; 2 the free surface evolution matches well measured elevation changes; 3 the retreat of the glacier under this scenario continues with the glacier tongue in a projection to 2030 being situated ≈500 m behind the position in 1977.

Description: A large number of Himalayan glacier catchments are under the influence of humid climate with snowfall in winter (November–April) and South-West monsoon in summer (June–September) dominating the regional hydrology. Such catchments are defined as ''Himalayan catchment'', where the glacier melt water contributes to the river flow during the period of annual high flows produced by the monsoon. Other two major glacio-hydrological regimes of the Himalaya are winter snow dominated Alpine catchments of the Kashmir and Karakoram region and cold-arid regions of the Ladakh mountain range. Factors influencing the river flow variations in a ''Himalayan catchment'' were studied in a micro scale glacier catchment in the Garhwal Himalaya, covering an area of 77.8 km2. Discharge data generated from three hydrometric stations established at different altitudes of the Din Gad stream during the summer ablation period of 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2003 and 2004. These data has been analysed along with winter/summer precipitation, temperature and mass balance data of the Dokriani glacier to study the role of the glacier and precipitation in determining the runoff variations along the stream continuum from the glacier snout to 2360 m a.s.l. Study shows that the inter-annual runoff variations in a ''Himalayan glacier catchment'' is directly linked with the precipitation rather than mass balance changes of the glacier. Study suggest that warming induced initial increase of glacier degraded runoff and subsequent decline is a glaciers mass balance response and cannot be translated as river flow response in a ''Himalayan catchment'' as suggested by the IPCC, 2007. Study also suggest that the glacier runoff critically influence the headwater river flows during the years of low summer discharge and proposes that the Himalayan catchment could experience higher river flows and positive glacier mass balance regime together in association with strong monsoon. This paper intended to highlight the importance of creating credible knowledge on the Himalayan cryospheric processes to develop a global outlook on river flow response to cryospheric change and locally sustainable water resources management strategies.

Description: In recent decades, seven out of twelve ice shelves around the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) have either retreated significantly or have been almost entirely lost. At least some of these retreats have been shown to be unusual within the context of the Holocene and have been widely attributed to recent atmospheric and oceanic changes. To date, measurements of the area of ice shelves on the AP have either been approximated, or calculated for individual shelves over dissimilar time intervals. Here we present a new dataset containing up-to-date and consistent area calculations for each of the twelve ice shelves on the AP over the past five decades. The results reveal an overall reduction in total ice-shelf area by over 28 000 km2 since the beginning of the period. Individual ice shelves show different rates of retreat, ranging from slow but progressive retreat to abrupt collapse. We discuss the pertinent features of each ice shelf and also broad spatial and temporal patterns in the timing and rate of retreat. We believe that an understanding of this diversity and what it implies about the baseline dynamics and control will provide the best foundation for developing a reliable real predictive skill.

Description: Even though the specific surface area (SSA) and the snow area index (SAI) of snow are crucial variables to determine the chemical and climatic impact of the snow cover, few data are available on the subject. We propose here a novel method to measure snow SSA and SAI. It is based on the measurement of the hemispherical infrared reflectance of snow samples using the DUFISSS instrument (DUal Frequency Integrating Sphere for Snow SSA measurement). DUFISSS uses the 1310 or 1550 nm radiation of laser diodes, an integrating sphere 15 cm in diameter, and InGaAs photodiodes. For SSA60 m2 kg−1, snow is usually of low density (typically 30 to 100 kg m−3), resulting in insufficient optical depth and 1310 nm radiation reaches the bottom of the sample, causing artifacts. The 1550 nm radiation is therefore used for SSA〉60 m2 kg−1. Reflectance is then in the range 5 to 12% and the accuracy on SSA is 12%. We propose empirical equations to determine SSA from reflectance at both wavelengths, with that for 1310 nm taking into account the snow density. DUFISSS has been used to measure the SSA of snow and the SAI of snowpacks in polar and Alpine regions.

Description: Runoff data were used to better select historically significant precipitation events. The suggested criterion Qx expresses the increase of a stream runoff over up to four days in a row. Tests confirmed that Qx maxima correspond to maxima of areal precipitation in the respective catchment. Ten significant precipitation events in summer half-years from 1951 to 2002 were selected in 25 catchments each, and further studied in respect to spatial extent, simultaneous occurrence in various river basins, seasonal distribution, and temporal variability. Four regions were recognised within Central Europe that show related seasonality and simultaneous occurrence of events. The main coincidence of significant precipitation events was confirmed between the Austrian Alps and Bohemia and Saxony on one hand, and Moravia, Silesia, and Western Slovakia on the other hand. Significant events typically emerge here during peak summer, in the south-eastern area of the Alps during autumn months, in the South-Eastern Carpathians from May to July, and in Western Germany in spring or autumn. Episodes with less significant precipitation events (around 1960 and 1990) alternate with inverse episodes (1970's, second half of the 1990's). A reasonable selection of reference events opens the door to a quantitative evaluation of dynamic and thermodynamic conditions typical for heavy rains in various parts of Central Europe.

Description: The present study concerns analysis of the seismic response of earth dams. The behaviour of both the shell and core of the dam is described using the simple and popular non associated Mohr-Coulomb criterion. The use of this constitutive model is justified by the difficulty to obtain constitutive parameters for more advanced constitutive relations including isotropic and kinematic hardening. Analyses with real earthquake records show that the seismic loading induces plasticity in a large part of the shell and in the lower part of the core. Analysis shows that plasticity should be considered in the analysis of the seismic response of the dam, because it leads to a decrease in the natural frequencies of the dam together to energy dissipation, which could significantly affect the seismic response of the dam. Plastic analysis constitutes also a good tool for the verification of the stability of the dam under seismic loading.

Description: Distributed watershed models constitute a key component in flood forecasting systems. It is widely recognized that models because of their structural differences have varying capabilities of capturing different aspects of the system behaviour equally well. Of course, this also applies to the reproduction of peak discharges by a simulation model which is of particular interest regarding the flood forecasting problem. In our study we use a Self-Organizing Map (SOM) in combination with index measures which are derived from the flow duration curve in order to examine the conditions under which three different distributed watershed models are capable of reproducing flood events present in the calibration data. These indices are specifically conceptualized to extract data on the peak discharge characteristics of model output time series which are obtained from Monte-Carlo simulations with the distributed watershed models NASIM, LARSIM and WaSIM-ETH. The SOM helps to analyze this data by producing a discretized mapping of their distribution in the index space onto a two dimensional plane such that their pattern and consequently the patterns of model behaviour can be conveyed in a comprehensive manner. It is demonstrated how the SOM provides useful information about details of model behaviour and also helps identifying the model parameters that are relevant for the reproduction of peak discharges and thus for flood prediction problems. It is further shown how the SOM can be used to identify those parameter sets from among the Monte-Carlo data that most closely approximate the peak discharges of a measured time series. The results represent the characteristics of the observed time series with partially superior accuracy than the reference simulation obtained by implementing a simple calibration strategy using the global optimization algorithm SCE-UA. The most prominent advantage of using SOM in the context of model analysis is that it allows to comparatively evaluating the data from two or more models. Our results highlight the individuality of the model realizations in terms of the index measures and shed a critical light on the use and implementation of simple and yet too rigorous calibration strategies.

Description: Rapid gravitational slope mass movements include all kinds of short term relocation of geological material, snow or ice. Traditionally, information about such events is collected separately in different databases covering selected geographical regions and types of movement. In Norway the terrain is susceptible to all types of rapid gravitational slope mass movements ranging from single rocks hitting roads and houses to large snow avalanches and rock slides where entire mountainsides collapse into fjords creating flood waves and endangering large areas. In addition, quick clay slides occur in desalinated marine sediments in South Eastern and Mid Norway. For the authorities and inhabitants of endangered areas, the type of threat is of minor importance and mitigation measures have to consider several types of rapid mass movements simultaneously. An integrated national database for all types of rapid mass movements built around individual events has been established. Only three data entries are mandatory: time, location and type of movement. The remaining optional parameters enable recording of detailed information about the terrain, materials involved and damages caused. Pictures, movies and other documentation can be uploaded into the database. A web-based graphical user interface has been developed allowing new events to be entered, as well as editing and querying for all events. An integration of the database into a GIS system is currently under development. Datasets from various national sources like the road authorities and the Geological Survey of Norway were imported into the database. Today, the database contains 33 000 rapid mass movement events from the last five hundred years covering the entire country. A first analysis of the data shows that the most frequent type of recorded rapid mass movement is rock slides and snow avalanches followed by debris slides in third place. Most events are recorded in the steep fjord terrain of the Norwegian west coast, but major events are recorded all over the country. Snow avalanches account for most fatalities, while large rock slides causing flood waves and huge quick clay slides are the most damaging individual events in terms of damage to infrastructure and property and for causing multiple fatalities. The quality of the data is strongly influenced by the personal engagement of local observers and varying observation routines. This database is a unique source for statistical analysis including, risk analysis and the relation between rapid mass movements and climate. The database of rapid mass movement events will also facilitate validation of national hazard and risk maps.

Description: An evaluation of rock slide tsunami hazard is applied to all Norwegian lakes larger than 0.1 km2 based on their topographical setting. The analysis results in a topographic rock slide potential score that indicates the relative hazard in each lake. Even though the score value each lake receives should be interpreted with caution, the distribution of score values shows that we are able to make a clear distinction between lakes with a high vs. lakes with a low hazard. The results also show a clustering of threatened lakes in parts of Western Norway as well as some locations in Northern Norway. This makes the results useful as a tool for focusing further studies on regions or specific lakes that received high scores. The results also show how the method may be used for more detailed analysis of a given lake (or fjord). Maps can be produced that may serve as a guide when carrying out field campaigns or when designing scenarios for numerical simulations of tsunamis in the lake. It should be emphasised that the rock slide potential reported for each lake is based on the topographical setting alone and hence, does not represent the actual probability of rock slides into the lakes. For a given area, more detailed investigations of the geology, triggering factors and frequency of previous rock slide events should be carried out before definite statements about the actual hazard can be made.

Description: Most of the actual studies and previews of future rainfall patterns, based on past observed records for Mediterranean climate areas, focus on the decline of the rainfall amounts over the years, and also on the increase of the frequency of heavy/intense rainfall events particularly in the winter season. These changes in heavy rainfall events may have severe implications and impacts on soil erosion resulting in increased soil degradation risks. The objective of the present work is to evaluate the spatial distribution of extreme precipitation events in Southern Portugal, using a geostatistical approach to assess the relationships between spatial and temporal extreme rainfall patterns. The used dataset comprises a set of 105 stations' records of daily precipitation within the period 1960–1999. Two indices of extreme precipitation were selected to be computed based on the daily precipitation observation series: one representing the frequency of extremely heavy precipitation events (R30) and another one characterizing flood events (R5D). The space-time patterns of the precipitation indices were evaluated and simulated using a geostatistical approach. Despite no significant temporal trends were detected on the calculated indices series, the space-time decadal patterns are becoming more continuous in the last two decades than the previous ones.

Description: The Hamiltonian method is applied to the problem of tsunami generation caused by a propagating rupture front and deformation of the ocean floor. The method establishes an alternative framework for analyzing the tsunami generation process and produces analytical expressions for the power and directivity of tsunami radiation (in the far-field) for two illustrative cases, with constant and gradually varying speeds of rupture front propagation.

Description: Katla volcano, located beneath the Mýrdalsjökull ice cap in southern Iceland, is capable of producing catastrophic jökulhlaup. The Icelandic Civil Protection (ICP), in conjunction with scientists, local police and emergency managers, developed mitigation strategies for possible jökulhlaup produced during future Katla eruptions. These strategies were tested during a full-scale evacuation exercise in March 2006. A positive public response during a volcanic crisis not only depends upon the public's knowledge of the evacuation plan but also their knowledge and perception of the possible hazards. To improve the effectiveness of residents' compliance with warning and evacuation messages it is important that emergency management officials understand how the public interpret their situation in relation to volcanic hazards and their potential response during a crisis and apply this information to the ongoing development of risk mitigation strategies. We adopted a mixed methods approach in order to gain a broad understanding of residents' knowledge and perception of the Katla volcano in general, jökulhlaup hazards specifically and the regional emergency evacuation plan. This entailed field observations during the major evacuation exercise, interviews with key emergency management officials and questionnaire survey interviews with local residents. Our survey shows that despite living within the hazard zone, many residents do not perceive that their homes could be affected by a jökulhlaup, and many participants who perceive that their homes are safe, stated that they would not evacuate if an evacuation warning was issued. Alarmingly, most participants did not receive an evacuation message during the exercise. However, the majority of participants who took part in the exercise were positive about its implementation. This assessment of resident knowledge and perception of volcanic hazards and the evacuation plan is the first of its kind in this region. Our data can be used as a baseline by the ICP for more detailed studies in Iceland's volcanic regions.

Description: A robust and reliable risk assessment procedure for hydrologic hazards deserves particular attention to the role of transported woody material during flash floods or debris flows. At present, woody material transport phenomena are not systematically considered within the procedures for the elaboration of hazard maps. The consequence is a risk of losing prediction accuracy and of underestimating hazard impacts. Transported woody material frequently interferes with the sediment regulation capacity of open check dams and moreover, when obstruction phenomena at critical cross-sections of the stream occur, inundations can be triggered. The paper presents a procedure for the determination of the relative propensity of mountain streams to the entrainment and delivery of recruited woody material on the basis of empirical indicators. The procedure provided the basis for the elaboration of a hazard index map for all torrent catchments of the Autonomous Province of Bolzano/Bozen. The plausibility of the results has been thoroughly checked by a backward oriented analysis on natural hazard events, documented since 1998 at the Department of Hydraulic Engineering of the aforementioned Alpine Province. The procedure provides hints for the consideration of the effects, induced by woody material transport, during the elaboration of hazard zone maps.

Description: The power law relation between the stress drop of "non thrust" earthquakes and the lead time of precursory Seismic Electric Signals (SES), obtained by Dologlou (2008a), has been tested by using additional data from the most recent earthquake that occurred on 8 June 2008, in Andravida, NW. Peloponnesus, Greece and from two other destructive earthquakes that occurred in the past in Ionian sea. A critical exponent α=0.33 is derived which is close to the one (e.g. 0.29) reported by Dologlou (2008a). The above preliminary result strengthens the hypothesis that probably signatures of criticality are present in the earthquake preparation and precursory SES processes and that both phenomena are governed by same physics.

Description: Damaging Hydro-geologic Events (DHEs), defined as landslides and floods caused by heavy or prolonged rainfall, represent an important source of economic damages. We propose an approach to classify DHEs, considering 1) meteorological antecedent conditions, 2) the season during which the event occurs, 3) the return period of maximum daily rainfall triggering the event, 4) geographic sectors hit, 5) types of triggered damaging phenomena; and 6) induced damage. We applied this approach to a case study of time series of DHEs that occurred over 85 years in Calabria (southern Italy). We analysed 13 DHEs that, between 1921 and 2005, triggered landslides, floods and secondary floods, causing severe damage and tens of causalities all over the Calabria region. During the analysed events, 64% of Calabria's municipalities suffered many types of damage. The most relevant rain phenomena and the largest damages were caused by the persistent effects of perturbations on Calabria, which were preceded by the appearance of low-pressure fields in two different areas located westwards. We sorted the events into three types based on geographic damage distribution and types of triggered phenomena and induced damage. The first two types are characterised by similar severity levels, while the third shows the highest severity, in terms of both damage and victims. Independent of the type of event, the S-SE and E sectors of the region are the most frequently affected by DHEs. As regards human life, floods are the most dangerous type of phenomenon, causing the highest number of fatalities. Our analysis indicates a decreasing frequency of DHEs during the study period, and an absence of the most severe type for more than 50 years. The number of victims is also decreasing over time.

Description: Catastrophic tsunamis are described in historical sources for all regions around the Gulf of Cadiz, at least since 60 BC. Most of the known events are associated with moderate to large earthquakes and among them the better studied is 1 November 1755. We present here a review of the events which effects, on the coasts of the Portuguese mainland and Madeira Island, are well described in historical documents or have been measured by tide gauges since the installation of these instruments. For a few we include new relevant information for the assessment of the tsunami generation or effects, and we discard events that are included in existing compilations but are not supported by quality historical sources or instrumental records. We quote the most relevant quantitative descriptions of tsunami effects on the Portuguese coast, including in all pertinent cases a critical review of the coeval sources, to establish a homogenous event list. When available, instrumental information is presented. We complement all this information with a summary of the conclusions established by paleo-tsunami research.

Description: Multi-risk assessment is becoming a valuable tool for land planning, emergency management and the deployment of mitigation strategies. Multi-risk maps combine all available information about hazard, vulnerability, and exposed values related to different dangerous phenomena, and provide a quantitative support to complex decision making. We analyse and integrate through an indicator-based approach nine major threats affecting the Lombardy Region (Northern Italy, 25 000 km2), namely landslide, avalanche, flood, wildfire, seismic, meteorological, industrial (technological) risks; road accidents, and work injuries. For each threat, we develop a set of indicators that express the physical risk and the coping capacity or system resilience. By combining these indicators through different weighting strategies (i.e. budgetary allocation, and fuzzy logic), we calculate a total risk for each threat. Then, we integrate these risks by applying AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) weighting, and we derive a set of multi-risk maps. Eventually, we identify the dominant risks for each zone, and a number of risk hot-spot areas. The proposed approach can be applied with different degree of detail depending on the quality of the available data. This allows the application of the method even in case of non homogeneous data, which is often the case for regional scale analyses. Moreover, it allows the integration of different risk types or metrics. Relative risk scores are provided from this methodology, not directly accounting for the temporal occurrence probability of the phenomena.

Description: PREVIEW is an European Commission FP6 Integrated Project with the aim of developing, at an European level, innovative geo-information services for atmospheric, geophysical and man-made risks. Within this framework, the Landslides Platform Service 2 (forecasting of shallow rapid slope movements) has developed an integrated procedure for the forecasting and warning of distributed shallow landsliding to be used for civil protection purposes. The Service consists of an automated end-to-end forecasting chain which uses data from a probabilistic downscaled short-term rainfall forecast, soil saturation estimates and meteorological radar outputs. The above data are entered into a hydro-geological model that makes use of an infinite slope approach to calculate the distributed Factor of Safety over the entire basin. All outputs, and much of the input data, are shown on a WebGIS system so that end-users can interactively access and download data. A distinctive feature of the service is the use of an innovative soil depth model for predicting the distributed thickness of the regolith cover within the basin, which is one of the most important parameters controlling shallow landslide triggering. The service was developed in a pilot test site in NE Italy, the Armea basin. Validation makes use of two rainfall events: one that occurred in 2000 and a smaller, more recent event (2006) that caused fewer landslides. Rainfall data have been used to compute a distributed factor-of-safety map that has been overlaid onto the landslide inventory. Instead of a traditional validation approach based on the number count of correctly identified landslides, we carried out an alternative procedure based on the landslides area that gave outcomes which, for this preliminary stage of the research, can be considered promising.

Description: Space-time fluctuations of Earth's emitted Thermal Infrared (TIR) radiation have been observed from satellite months to weeks before earthquakes occurrence. The general RST approach has been proposed in order to discriminate normal (i.e. related to the change of natural factor and/or observation conditions) TIR signal fluctuations from anomalous signal transient possibly associated to earthquake occurrence. In this work RST approach is applied to the Abruzzo 6 April 2009 event (ML=5.8) by using for the first time MSG-SEVIRI (Meteosat Second Generation -Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager) thermal infrared observations. A validation/confutation analysis has been performed in order to verify the presence/absence of anomalous space-time TIR transients in the presence/absence of significant seismic activity. March–April 2009 has been analyzed for validation purposes. Relatively unperturbed periods (no earthquakes with ML≥5) have been taken for confutation. A specific TIR anomalies space-time persistence analysis as well as a cloud coverage distribution test have been introduced in order to eliminate artifacts and outliers both in the validation and confutation phases. Preliminary results show clear differences in TIR anomalies occurrence during the periods used for validation and confutation purposes. Quite clear TIR anomalies appear also to mark main tectonic lines related to the preparatory phases of others, low magnitude (ML~4) earthquakes, occurred in the area.

Description: Australia is vulnerable to the impacts of tsunamis and exposure along the SE coast of New South Wales is especially high. Significantly, this is the same area reported to have been affected by repeated large magnitude tsunamis during the Holocene. Efforts are under way to complete probabilistic risk assessments for the region but local government planners and emergency risk managers need information now about building vulnerability in order to develop appropriate risk management strategies. We use the newly revised PTVA-3 Model (Dall'Osso et al., 2009) to assess the relative vulnerability of buildings to damage from a "worst case tsunami" defined by our latest understanding of regional risk – something never before undertaken in Australia. We present selected results from an investigation of building vulnerability within the local government area of Manly – an iconic coastal area of Sydney. We show that a significant proportion of buildings (in particular, residential structures) are classified as having "High" and "Very High" Relative Vulnerability Index scores. Furthermore, other important buildings (e.g., schools, nursing homes and transport structures) are also vulnerable to damage. Our results have serious implications for immediate emergency risk management, longer-term land-use zoning and development, and building design and construction standards. Based on the work undertaken here, we recommend further detailed assessment of the vulnerability of coastal buildings in at risk areas, development of appropriate risk management strategies and a detailed program of community engagement to increase overall resilience.

Description: In the framework of rockfall trajectory modelling, the bouncing phenomenon occurring when a rock block impacts with the slope surface is the most difficult to predict, owing to its complexity and its very limited understanding. To date, the rebound is commonly quantified by means of two coefficients of restitution estimated from a rough description of the ground material. To acquire a better knowledge of the bouncing phenomenon and to investigate the influence of various impact parameters, a comprehensive experimental study was undertaken at the LMR-EPFL (Rock Mechanics Laboratory – Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Lausanne). After a summary of the main conclusions drawn from a small-scale study, the paper focuses on half-scale experiments, describing first the testing device and the data processing and analysing then the influence of several impact parameters. It is observed that the rebound and the commonly-used coefficients of restitution expressed for the mass centre of the block depend not only on slope material characteristics, but also on factors related to the kinematics (slope inclination and impact velocity) and to the block (weight, size and shape). As many trajectory computer codes consider constant coefficients of restitution only function of the outcropping material, the trajectory results should be interpreted with caution and always checked against field observations.

Description: The crustal seismicity of Taiwan was investigated by means of the Allan Factor analysis and Count-based Periodogram, which allow to identify scaling behaviour in point processes and to quantify their temporal fluctuations by means of the estimate of the scaling exponent. Our findings point out to the presence of two time-scaling regions in the crustal Taiwanese seismicity. The first region, involving the intermediate timescales can be probably linked with aftershock activity, while the second region, involving the large timescales could be related with the background seismicity.

Description: The likely manifestations of climate change like flood hazards are prominent topics in public communication. This can be shown by media analysis and questionnaire data. However, in the case of flood risks an information gap remains resulting in misinformed citizens who probably will not perform the necessary protective actions when an emergency occurs. This paper examines more closely a newly developed approach to flood risk communication that takes the heterogeneity of citizens into account and aims to close this gap. The heterogeneity is analysed on the meso level regarding differences in residential situation as well as on the micro level with respect to risk perception and protective actions. Using the city of Bremen as a case study, empirical data from n=831 respondents were used to identify Action Types representing different states of readiness for protective actions in view of flood risks. These subpopulations can be provided with specific information to meet their heterogeneous needs for risk communication. A prototype of a computer-based information system is described that can produce and pass on such tailored information. However, such an approach to risk communication has to be complemented by meso level analysis which takes the social diversity of subpopulations into account. Social vulnerability is the crucial concept for understanding the distribution of resources and capacities among different social groups. We therefore recommend putting forums and organisations into place that can mediate between the state and its citizens.

Description: Five ground-based differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar (GB-DInSAR) surveys were conducted between 2005 and 2007 at the rock slope instability at Randa, Switzerland. Resultant displacement maps revealed, for the first time, the presence of an active basal rupture zone and a lateral release surface daylighting on the exposed 1991 failure scarp. Structures correlated with the boundaries of interferometric displacement domains were confirmed using a helicopter-based LiDAR DTM and oblique aerial photography. Former investigations at the site failed to conclusively detect these active release surfaces essential for kinematic and hazard analysis of the instability, although their existence had been hypothesized. The determination of the basal and lateral release planes also allowed a more accurate estimate of the currently unstable volume of 5.7±1.5 million m3. The displacement patterns reveal that two different kinematic behaviors dominate the instability, i.e. toppling above 2200 m and translational failure below. In the toppling part of the instability the areas with the highest GB-DInSAR displacements correspond to areas of enhanced micro-seismic activity. The observation of only few strongly active discontinuities daylighting on the 1991 failure surface points to a rather uniform movement in the lower portion of the instability, while most of the slip occurs along the basal rupture plane. Comparison of GB-DInSAR displacements with mapped discontinuities revealed correlations between displacement patterns and active structures, although spatial offsets occur as a result of the effective resolution of GB-DInSAR. Similarly, comparisons with measurements from total station surveys generally showed good agreement. Discrepancies arose in several cases due to local movement of blocks, the size of which could not be resolved using GB-DInSAR.

Description: Flood risk assessment is an essential part of flood risk management. As part of the new EU flood directive it is becoming increasingly more popular in European flood policy. Particularly cities with a high concentration of people and goods are vulnerable to floods. This paper introduces the adaptation of a novel method of multicriteria flood risk assessment, that was recently developed for the more rural Mulde river basin, to a city. The study site is Leipzig, Germany. The "urban" approach includes a specific urban-type set of economic, social and ecological flood risk criteria, which focus on urban issues: population and vulnerable groups, differentiated residential land use classes, areas with social and health care but also ecological indicators such as recreational urban green spaces. These criteria are integrated using a "multicriteria decision rule" based on an additive weighting procedure which is implemented into the software tool FloodCalc urban. Based on different weighting sets we provide evidence of where the most flood-prone areas are located in a city. Furthermore, we can show that with an increasing inundation extent it is both the social and the economic risks that strongly increase.

Description: Digital elevation models (DEM) are widely used to determine characteristics of mass movement processes such as accumulation and deposition of material, volume estimates or the orientation of discontinuities. To create such DEMs point cloud data is provided by terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) and recently used for analysis of mass movements. Therefore the reliability of TLS data was investigated in a comparative study with tachymetry. The main focus was on the possibility of determining movement patterns of landslides

Description: This paper investigates the feasibility of Tsunami Early Warning Systems for small volcanic islands focusing on warning of waves generated by landslides at the coast of the island itself. The critical concern is if there is enough time to spread the alarm once the system has recognized that a tsunami has been generated. We use the results of a large scale physical model experiment in order to estimate the time that tsunamis take to travel around the island inundating the coast. We discuss how and where it is convenient to place instruments for the measurement of the waves.

Description: This paper examines and evaluates the integrated use of satellite remote sensing and meteorological data for estimating crop water requirements over agricultural areas of Cyprus. Intended purpose of this project is to estimate evapotranspiration using modeling techniques, satellite and meteorological data for monitoring irrigation demand. ETc was calculated with the FAO Penman-Monteith method by using satellite images acquired from July to December 2008. ETc estimates obtained in this project were compared to previous empirical data found by using in-situ techniques. ETc values have been correlated with the meteorological data to crosscheck the significance of the meteorological inputs.

Description: The relationship between the multi-spectral cloud field characterization from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and the rainfall intensities from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-module B (AMSU-B) data were studied for a convective storm event, which occurred during the first 15 days of June 2007 over the Mediterranean. The cloud products exploited in this analysis, cloud mask, type, optical thickness, and effective radius, are obtained from the NOAA-NESDIS operational processing system Clouds from the AVHRR-Extended algorithm (CLAVR-x), whereas the rain intensity values are retrieved from the AMSU-B brightness temperatures via a fast algorithm, using opaque frequencies (centred at 183 GHz) to correct for the presence of water vapour affecting the retrieval results. The algorithm is conceived to discriminate between convective and stratiform rain using a suitable set of thresholds; the retrieval is subsequently carried out separately for the two types. A test for the discrimination of precipitating from non-precipitating areas was based on the comparison between the precipitation information and the retrieved cloud parameters. The test produced a cloud optical thickness threshold value, beyond which the precipitation initiates, and an effective radius range for the identification of the precipitating clouds. The results stemming from the application of the test to the June 2007 case study are very encouraging, although still preliminary and restricted to the analyzed Mediterranean storms. In particular, the test shows high potential for delineating non-precipitating areas (more than 90% of successful cases for every considered cloud type) and to identify precipitating ice clouds related to convective rain (confirmed by 82% of hits). On the other hand, the relative inability to address the stratiform cloud systems is proved by the fact that the majority of the missed cases, for each cloud types, is characterized by light rain intensities (≤3 mm h−1).

Description: An analytical methodology is presented to evaluate rock slope stability under seismic conditions by considering the geomechanical and topographic properties of a slope. The objective is to locate potential rockfall source areas and evaluate their susceptibility in terms of probability of failure. For this purpose, the slope face of a study area is discretized into cells having homogenous aspect, slope angle, rock properties and joint set orientations. A pseudostatic limit equilibrium analysis is performed for each cell, whereby the destabilizing effect of an earthquake is represented by a horizontal force. The value of this force is calculated by linear interpolation between the peak horizontal ground acceleration PGA at the base and the top of the slope. The ground acceleration at the top of the slope is increased by 50% to account for topographic amplification. The uncertainty associated with the joint dip is taken into account using the Monte Carlo method. The proposed methodology was applied to a study site with moderate seismicity in Solà de Santa Coloma, located in the Principality of Andorra. The results of the analysis are consistent with the spatial distribution of historical rockfalls that have occurred since 1997. Moreover, the results indicate that for the studied area, 1) the most important factor controlling the rockfall susceptibility of the slope is water pressure in joints and 2) earthquake shaking with PGA of ≤0.16 g will cause a significant increase in rockfall activity only if water levels in joints are greater than 50% of the joint height.

Description: The 8 September 1905 Calabria (Southern Italy) earthquake belongs to a peculiar family of highly destructive (I0=XI) seismic events, occurred at the dawning of the instrumental seismology, for which the location, geometry and size of the causative source are still substantially unconstrained. During the century elapsed since the earthquake, previous Authors identified three different epicenters that are more than 50 km apart and proposed magnitudes ranging from M≤6.2 to M=7.9. Even larger uncertainties were found when the geometry of the earthquake source was estimated. In this study, we constrain the magnitude, location and kinematics of the 1905 earthquake through the analysis of the remarkable environmental effects produced by the event (117 reviewed observations at 73 different localities throughout Calabria). The data used in our analysis include ground effects (landslides, rock falls and lateral spreads) and hydrological changes (streamflow variations, liquefaction, rise of water temperature and turbidity). To better define the magnitude of the event we use a number of empirical relations between seismic source parameters and distribution of ground effects and hydrological changes. In order to provide constraints to the location of the event and to the geometry of the source, we reproduce the coseismic static strain associated with different possible 1905 causative faults and compare its pattern to the documented streamflow changes. From the analysis of the seismically-induced environmental changes we find that: 1) the 1905 earthquake had a minimum magnitude M=6.7; 2) the event occurred in an offshore area west of the epicenters proposed by the historical seismic Catalogs; 3) it most likely occurred along a 100° N oriented normal fault with a left-lateral component, consistently with the seismotectonic setting of the area.

Description: We present an approach for flood damage simulations through the creation of a comparatively large number of inundation scenarios for a polder area, using a high-resolution digital elevation model. In particular, the method could be used for detailed scenario studies of the impact of future socioeconomic and climatic developments on flood risks. The approach is applied to a case-study area in the south of the Netherlands along the river Meuse. The advantage of our approach is that a large number of potential flood events can be created relatively fast without hydrodynamical calculations, and that it can be applied to high-resolution elevation models and for large areas. The large number of flood scenarios and the high horizontal resolution reduces at least part of the uncertainties encountered in flood loss modelling. The approach with a low horizontal-resolution (100-m) for loss modelling results in an overestimation of losses by up to 22% for high density urban areas, and underestimation of 100% for infrastructure, compared to the high-resolution (25-m). Loss modelling at 5-m horizontal resolution shows that aggregate losses may be overestimated by some 4.3%, compared to the 25-m resolution. The generation of a large variety of inundation scenarios provides a basis for constructing loss probability curves. The calculated range and expected values of damages compare reasonably well with earlier independent estimates.

Description: The time dynamics of the aftershock sequence of the Al-Hoceima (Morocco) earthquake of 24 February 2004 has been investigated. The sequence of the occurrence times of the events with threshold magnitude Mth≥3.2 is characterized by a time-clustering behavior, identified using different fractal methods (Fano Factor, Allan Factor, Count-based Periodogram), well suited to reveal scaling features in point processes. The obtained results not only show the presence of memory phenomena and correlation structures in the Al-Hoceima aftershocks, but also furnish quantitatively the estimate of the magnitude of such correlation by means of the estimate of the scaling exponent α.

Description: The objective is to present a reservoir management system which is capable of determining optimal operating rules both for flood event based and normal operation while at the same time attempting to achieve ecologically oriented operation. In order to maintain the variability of the natural flow regime, a new dynamic operating policy is introduced for normal operation. Flood event based operation is managed by a two-part step function. Both operating policies are optimized using a state-of-the-art multi-objective evolution strategy algorithm.

Description: The estimation of risk due to rockfall is often done empirically. As a rational and effective method towards performance-based design of protection measures, a three-dimensional simulation method helps to describe the motion of rockfall on a slope and to consider the effect of vegetation probabilistically. This document details a typical simulation method and analyses the manner of rockfalls paired with interference of vegetation and other factors. As application, an actual slope is analyzed where rockfall occurred during the Noto Peninsula Earthquake. Finally, the validity and the benefits of the shown method are the basis for a hazard mapping for rockfall and the planning of measures.

Description: The German research programme RIsk MAnagment of eXtreme flood events has accomplished the improvement of regional hazard assessment for the large rivers in Germany. Here we focused on the Elbe river at its gauge Dresden, which belongs to the oldest gauges in Europe with officially available daily discharge time series beginning on 1 January 1890. The project on the one hand aimed to extend and to revise the existing time series, and on the other hand to examine the variability of the Elbe river discharge conditions on a greater time scale. Therefore one major task were the historical searches and the examination of the retrieved documents and the contained information. After analysing this information the development of the river course and the discharge conditions were discussed. Using the provided knowledge, in an other subproject, a historical hydraulic model was established. Its results then again were used here. A further purpose was the determining of flood frequency based on all pre-processed data. The obtained knowledge about historical changes was also used to get an idea about possible future variations under climate change conditions. Especially variations in the runoff characteristic of the Elbe river over the course of the year were analysed. It succeeded to obtain a much longer discharge time series which contain fewer errors and uncertainties. Hence an optimized regional hazard assessment was realised.

Description: There will be a change in the Earth's local sub-surface thermal structure before and/or after an earthquake. In this work we have introduced a new parameter (I) which relates integral effect of temperature variation and seismic activity. This parameter in its various forms integrates the temperature variations during one year before and after earthquake. Some recent earthquakes are chosen throughout Iran on Alps-Himalayas fault zone with magnitudes 4.5 and more. Subsurface temperatures up to one meter depth measured in nearby weather stations are used as there is no deeper data available. We found the new defined parameter (I) has a direct relation with earthquakes magnitude (M) and reverse relation with distance (d) between earthquake focus and station in which temperature is measured. Suitable formulas for these relations are suggested regarding the magnitude ranges and time period with respect to the earthquake time. There may be a way to use this new parameter as a quake precursor.

Description: The terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) technique has been used to accurately reconstruct the 3-D shape of the walls and bastions of the historic city of Mdina (Malta) and underlying terrain. By applying this technique it has also been possible to extract additional quantitative information regarding weathering and deformational processes affecting the structures. Thus, with the aim of identifying the main instability mechanisms, a detailed 3-D crack distribution map has been drawn and the main displacement vectors have been defined.

Description: The impact of forest fires on nature and civilisation is conflicting: on one hand, they play an irreplaceable role in the natural regeneration process, but on the other hand, they come within the major natural hazards in many regions. Their frequency-area distributions show power-law behaviour with scaling exponents α in a quite narrow range, relating wildfire research to the theoretical framework of self-organised criticality. Examples of self-organised critical behaviour can be found in computer simulations of simple cellular automaton models. The established self-organised critical Drossel-Schwabl forest fire model is one of the most widespread models in this context. Despite its qualitative agreement with event-size statistics from nature, its applicability is still questioned. Apart from general concerns that the Drossel-Schwabl model apparently oversimplifies the complex nature of forest dynamics, it significantly overestimates the frequency of large fires. We present a modification of the model rules that distinguishes between lightning-induced and man made forest fires and enables a systematic increase of the scaling exponent α by approximately 1/3. In addition, combined simulations using both the original and the modified model rules predict a dependence of the overall event-size distribution on the ratio of lightning induced and man made fires as well as a splitting of their partial distributions. Lightning is identified as the dominant mechanism in the regime of the largest fires. The results are confirmed by the analysis of the Canadian Large Fire Database and suggest that lightning-induced and man made forest fires cannot be treated separately in wildfire modelling, hazard assessment and forest management.

Description: The VLF/LF radio signals method for studying preseimic activity is applied to the Abruzzo earthquake (M=6.3, 6 April 2009). The data collected by three receivers located in Moscow (Russia), Graz (Austria) and Bari (Italy) at about 3000 km, 1000 km and 500 km from the epicenter were used. The signals received from the Sardinia (20.27 kHz) and the Sicily (45.9 kHz) transmitters, both located in Italy, were compared with those received from the Iceland (37.5 kHz), the Great Britain (19.58 kHz) and the Germany (23.4 kHz) transmitters. The propagation paths of the two Italian transmitters cross the epicentral area (seismic paths) unlike the paths of the other three signals (control paths). Using two different analyses, that are the study of the night-time signal and the research of shifts in the evening terminator times, clear anomalies were revealed 2–8 days before the occurrence of the Abruzzo earthquake in the seismic paths, while no anomalies have been found in the control paths.

Description: In the framework of this paper, one-year of lightning data from the experimental network ZEUS operated by the National Observatory of Athens is compared to collocated data provided by the LINET detection network. The area of comparison is limited to a part of Central-Western Europe, where LINET data exhibits the highest data quality, permitting thus to be used as the validation dataset. The location error of ZEUS was calculated to be ~6.8 km, while the detection efficiency was ~25%, with a characteristic under-detection during nighttime. Moreover, the analysis revealed that ZEUS is also capable to detect not only cloud-to-ground but also intra-cloud strokes. Analysis of a specific case study revealed that the spatial distribution of ZEUS was very close to that of LINET, although the total number of strokes as seen by ZEUS is much lower than the one from LINET. The overall analysis permitted to assess the main characteristics of ZEUS network, information considered of paramount importance before the use of ZEUS data for a variety of observational and modeling work.

Description: Coastal and subaqueous landslides can be very dangerous phenomena since they are characterised by the additional risk of induced tsunamis, unlike their completely-subaerial counterparts. Numerical modelling of landslides propagation is a key step in forecasting the consequences of landslides. In this paper, a novel approach named Equivalent Fluid/Equivalent Medium (EFEM) has been developed. It adapts common numerical models and software that were originally designed for subaerial landslides in order to simulate the propagation of combined subaerial-subaqueous and completely-subaqueous landslides. Drag and buoyancy forces, the loss of energy at the landslide-water impact and peculiar mechanisms like hydroplaning can be suitably simulated by this approach; furthermore, the change in properties of the landslide's mass, which is encountered at the transition from the subaerial to the submerged environment, can be taken into account. The approach has been tested by modelling two documented coastal landslides (a debris flow and a rock slide at Lake Albano) using the DAN-W code. The results, which were achieved from the back-analyses, demonstrate the efficacy of the approach to simulate the propagation of different types of coastal landslides.

Description: Flow velocity is generally presumed to influence flood damage. However, this influence is hardly quantified and virtually no damage models take it into account. Therefore, the influences of flow velocity, water depth and combinations of these two impact parameters on various types of flood damage were investigated in five communities affected by the Elbe catchment flood in Germany in 2002. 2-D hydraulic models with high to medium spatial resolutions were used to calculate the impact parameters at the sites in which damage occurred. A significant influence of flow velocity on structural damage, particularly on roads, could be shown in contrast to a minor influence on monetary losses and business interruption. Forecasts of structural damage to road infrastructure should be based on flow velocity alone. The energy head is suggested as a suitable flood impact parameter for reliable forecasting of structural damage to residential buildings above a critical impact level of 2 m of energy head or water depth. However, general consideration of flow velocity in flood damage modelling, particularly for estimating monetary loss, cannot be recommended.

Description: This article presents MassMov2D, a two-dimensional model of mud and debris flow dynamics over complex topography, based on a numerical integration of the depth-averaged motion equations using a shallow water approximation. The core part of the model was implemented using the GIS scripting language PCRaster. This environment provides visualization of the results through map animations and time series, and a user-friendly interface. The constitutive equations and the numerical solution adopted in MassMov2D are presented in this article. The model was applied to two field case studies of mud flows on torrential alluvial fans, one in the Austrian Tyrol (Wartschenbach torrent) and the other in the French Alps (Faucon torrent). Existing data on the debris flow volume, input discharge and deposits were used to back-analyze those events and estimate the values of the leading parameters. The results were compared with modeling codes used by other authors for the same case studies. The results obtained with MassMov2D matched well with the observed debris flow deposits, and are in agreement with those obtained using alternative codes.

Description: The characteristics of the atmospheric circulation over Europe and the Mediterranean associated with the formation and the dissipation of fog in Greece are examined. The data used consists of: i) 3-hourly meteorological observations recorded at 16 meteorological stations in Greece and ii) daily (00:00 UTC) 2.5×2.5 grid point values of mean sea-level pressure, 500 hPa geopotential height, 850 hPa and 500 hPa air temperatures and 1000–500 hPa thickness over Europe for the period 1957–2002. 1055 fog events are extracted from the 3-hourly meteorological observations. A specific methodology scheme including S-mode Factor Analysis and k-means Cluster Analysis is applied to the grid point data sets for the first day of a fog event (D day), the day prior to D day (D-1 day) and the day that follows the last day of a fog event (END day) and the 1055 evolutions of the atmospheric circulation associated with fog events in Greece are classified into 10 clusters. The mean patterns of MSL Pressure, 850 hPa and 500 hPa air temperatures, 1000–500 hPa thickness and 500 hPa geopotential height show that in most of the clusters, the presence of anticyclonic conditions over the Balkans, a warm front passage, or a weak, humid southerly flow induced by the presence of a shallow depression over the western Mediterranean favor fog formation in Greece, while the dissipation of fog occurs when drier air masses are transferred over the Balkans. The main differences among the 10 clusters refer to the exact position, the intensity and the specific evolution of the surface and the upper air systems, the season of their predominance and the area of the Greek territory that mainly refer to.

Description: Landslide Periods (LPs) are defined as periods, shorter than a hydrological year, during which one or more landslide damage events occur in one or more sectors of a study area. In this work, we present a methodological approach, based on the comparative analysis of historical series of landslide damage and daily rainfall data, aiming to characterise the main types of LPs affecting selected areas. Cumulative rainfall preceding landslide activation is assessed for short (1, 2, 3, and 5 days), medium (7, 10, and 30 days) and long (60, 90, and 180 days) durations, and their Return Periods (RPs) are assessed and ranked into three classes (Class 1: RP=5-10 years; Class 2: RP=11-15; Class 3: RP〉15 years). To assess landslide damage, the Simplified Damage Index (SDI) is introduced. This represents classified landslide losses and is obtained by multiplying the value of the damaged element and the percentage of damage affecting it. The comparison of the RP of rainfall and the SDI allows us to indentify the different types of LPs that affected the study area in the past and that could affect it again in the future. The results of this activity can be used for practical purposes to define scenarios and strategies for risk management, to suggest priorities in policy towards disaster mitigation and preparedness and to predispose defensive measures and civil protection plans ranked according to the types of LPs that must be managed. We present an application, performed for a 39-year series of rainfall/landslide damage data and concerning a study area located in NE Calabria (Italy); in this case study, we identify four main types of LPs, which are ranked according to damage severity.