ALBERT

Notizen: The changes in porosity and elastic moduli of YSZ-containing nickel-based anode materials for solid oxide fuel cells were studied as a function of the fraction of reduced NiO. Anode samples were reduced in a gas mixture of 4% hydrogen and 96% argon for different periods of time at 800°C and their Young's and shear moduli were determined afterward at room temperature using resonant ultrasound spectroscopy and impulse excitation. It was found that the magnitude of Young's and shear moduli decreased significantly with increasing fraction of reduced NiO and that the magnitude of the elastic moduli of a fully reduced Ni–YSZ anode was ∼45% lower than that of unreduced NiO–YSZ. Because the elastic moduli of NiO are close to those of Ni, the observed decrease in the magnitude of the elastic moduli was found to be caused mainly by the significant increase in the porosity of the sample as a result of NiO reduction. Expressions are presented for the amount of porosity and the magnitude of the elastic moduli as a function of the fraction of reduced NiO.

Notizen: Two- and three-dimensional SiCr/SiC composites have been prepared starting from Tyranno SA(tm) fiber preforms. Preform densification has been performed by a modified preceramic polymer impregnation and pyrolysis (PIP) process consisting of filling the preform large interbundle voids with SiC powder before the PIP process. This step was accomplished by low-pressure infiltration of a SiC powder dilute slurry through the preform thickness. Specimens were further processed with polymer impregnation and pyrolysis to determine the effects on structural, thermal, and mechanical properties of the obtained composites. High-temperature pyrolysis treatment, which promoted polymer derived SiC matrix crystallization, markedly increased thermal diffusivity.

Notizen: Carbon is commonly added to sulfate-fined silicate-glass batches to enhance the fining process. Reactions between carbon and Na2SO4 modify the SOx emissions from Na2SO4 decomposition. Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR) spectrometry is used to analyze the emission of air pollutants from the isothermal decomposition of Na2SO4 + C undertaken using thermogravimetric analysis (TGA). The FTIR spectrometer is calibrated using standard gas mixtures containing CO, CO2, SO2, NO, and NO2. The collected spectra are quantified using the classical least-squares (CLS) approximation. The TGA-FTIR system provides SOx, and COx, concentrations versus time data from the isothermal decomposition of Na2SO4, in the presence of a carbon black. Mass spectrometry (MS) complements FTIR by being able to detect SO(g).

Notizen: Different ratios of the precursor phases of SrFeO3–x (SFO) and SrMoO4 (SMO) were used to prepare Sr2FeMoO6 (SFMO) by a solid-state reaction. X-ray diffraction was used to identify the phases. A residual SMO was observed to exist in the sample with an SFO/SMO ratio of 0.9:1. The sample with a residual SMO phase had higher resistivity, lower magnetization, but higher low-field magnetoresistance (LFMR). High-resolution transmission electron microscopy was used to identify the compositions and phases. Nanometer-sized amorphous-like clusters of SMO phase were located inside the grains rather than at grain boundaries; however, some boundaries were rich in the strontium ion. The possible mechanisms for the conduction and the increase of LFMR of SFMO are discussed.

Notizen: Submicro- and nano-sized liquid-phase-sintered SiC ceramics were mechanically tested by nanoindentation in the peak load range 5–400 mN. The submicro-sized sample showed a marked indentation size effect which the nano-sized samples did not exhibit. The relevance of indentation depth with respect to the microstructural scale has been outlined. In the investigated grain-size range, the hardness dependence on the grain size could be described by a load-dependent inverse Hall–Petch relation. Young's modulus was less microstructure- and load-dependent. Because of the very fine microstructure, the nano-sized SiC materials gave lower elastic values than the submicro-sized SiC ceramic.

Notizen: Samples of composition Ba1−xLaxTi1−x/4O3, x= 0, 0.003, 0.03, and 0.10, were prepared by an alkoxide sol–gel route with final firing of ceramics at 1100°C, 2 h in air. All samples showed bulk insulating behavior with no evidence of semiconductivity caused by either direct donor doping or oxygen loss.

Notizen: We have studied the rheological property evolution and hydration behavior of white and ordinary portland cement (type I) pastes and concentrated cement–polyelectrolyte suspensions. Cement composition had a marked effect on the elastic property evolution (G′(t)) and hydration behavior of these suspensions in the presence of poly(acrylic acid)/poly(ethylene oxide) copolymer (PAA/PEO), even though their affinity to adsorb such species was nearly identical. Both white and ordinary portland cement pastes exhibited G′0 values of ∼104 Pa and fully reversible G′(t) behavior until the onset of the acceleratory period (t= 2 h), where the pastes stiffened irreversibly. In contrast, cement–PAA/PEO suspensions exhibited G′0 values of ∼1 Pa and G′(t) behavior comprised of both reversible and irreversible features. Interestingly, ordinary portland cement–PAA/PEO suspensions experienced a gel-to-fluid transition on high shear mixing at short hydration times (〈1 h), and the particle network did not rebuild until ∼24 h of hydration. In sharp contrast, white portland cement–PAA/PEO suspensions remained weakly gelled throughout the initial stage of hydration even after high shear mixing. At longer hydration times (〉1 h), both cement–PAA/PEO suspensions exhibited G′i(t) ∼ exp(t/τc) with τc values of 5.6 and 1.3 h for ordinary and white portland cement, respectively. Our observations suggest that hydration phenomena impact interparticle forces during early stage hydration and, ultimately, lead to initial setting through the formation of solid bridges at the contact points between particles within the gelled network.

Notizen: A new ceramic freeze-casting technique capable of manufacturing near room temperature with a sublimable vehicle was accomplished. Fluid-concentrated slurries of Al2O3 powder in molten camphene (C10H16) were prepared at 55°C. These slurries were quickly solidified (frozen) at room temperature to yield rigid solid green bodies, followed by frozen camphene removal by sublimation (freeze-drying) with negligible shrinkage. Sintering without any special binder burnout process yielded sintered bodies with over 98% theoretical density. The proposed advantages include (1) elimination of extremely cold temperatures, (2) elimination of troublesome binder burnout process, and (3) fast manufacturing cycle due to quick solidification.

Notizen: Dense composites in the Ti-B-N system have been produced by reactive hot pressing of titanium and BN powders. The effect of the addition of a small amount of nickel (1–3 wt%) on the reaction kinetics and densification of TiN–TiB2 (40 vol%) composite has been studied. Composites of ∼99% of theoretical density have been produced at 1600°C under 40 MPa for 30 min with 1% nickel. The hardness and fracture toughness of these composites are 24.5 ± 0.97 GPa and 6.53 ± 0.27 MPa·m1/2, respectively. The microstructural studies on samples produced at lower temperatures indicate the formation of a transient liquid phase, which enhances the kinetics of the reaction and densification of the composite.

Notizen: This paper presents new findings on ultrasonic spray pyrolysis of zirconium hydroxyl acetate precursor drops whose sizes were precisely measured using laser light diffraction technique. Precursor concentration plays a predominant role in determination of product particle size. At 0.01 wt% precursor concentration, conventional spray pyrolysis at 750°C using precursor drops 5–8 μm in diameter, generated by an ultrasonic nebulizer at 2.66 MHz, yielded uniform spherical yttria-stabilized zirconia (YSZ) particles 73 nm in diameter measured by scanning electron microscopy. The YSZ particle diameters were much smaller than those predicted by the one-particle-per-drop mechanism. Under similar reaction conditions, the high-throughput ultrasound-modulated two-fluid (UMTF) spray pyrolysis of larger precursor drops (28-μm peak diameter) also yielded spherical dense particles; they were significantly smaller in size than those produced by the low-throughput conventional ultrasonic spray pyrolysis of smaller drops (6.8-μm peak diameter).

Notizen: Thermoelectric elements consisting of the layered polycrystalline materials of Al-doped ZnO and NaCo2O4 were prepared using the pulse electric-current sintering (PECS) method at 900°C for 3 min. Direct contact between the polycrystalline Al-doped ZnO and the NaCo2O4 was obtained in a single-step process for the stacked powders. The electrical conductivities of the polycrystalline materials prepared by PECS were higher than those of materials prepared by conventional sintering, despite their porous structure. The thermoelectric voltage of the 1-mol%-Al-doped ZnO and NaCo2O4 polycrystalline element (measuring ∼6 mm × 3 mm × 15 mm) was 83 mV at dT= 500 K, when the junction of the elements was at 800°C.

Notizen: Pb(Zr,Ti)O3–Pb(Mn1/3 Nb2/3)O3 (PZT–PMnN) system has been studied for high-power piezoelectric applications. This study investigates this system to find out the composition with high-power density piezoelectric characteristics and low tem-perature coefficient of resonance frequency (TCF). It was found that the composition 0.9PZT–0.1PMnN (Zr/Ti = 0.51/0.49) modified with 6 mol% Sr exhibits a TCF of −8 ppm/°C (−20 to +80°C). Further, the dielectric and piezoelectric properties of this composition are as follows: kp= 0.53; Qm= 800; d33= 274; ε33/ε0= 1290 and tan δ=1.1%, which shows the suitability of this composition for ultrasonic devices used under fluctuating thermal environment.

Notizen: Beam bending is an excellent method for measuring low permeabilities (≤10−18 m2) in homogeneous materials, because it is fast, requires no high pressure, and provides a concurrent measurement of the modulus of the material. The method was previously analyzed and substantiated for cylindrical or square beams. Recently, the analysis was extended to include isotropic and transversely isotropic rectangular beams. In this paper, the analysis is applied to measurements performed on cement paste, and it is shown that the solution for isotropic rectangular beams accounts for changes in the hydrodynamic behavior caused by changing the aspect ratio of the sample. The permeability and elastic modulus results are verified through comparison to previous measurements on cylindrical beams.

Notizen: The deformation behavior of boron- and carbon-doped β-silicon carbide (B,C-SiC) with an average grain size of 260 ± 18 nm containing 1 wt% boron was investigated by compression testing at elevated temperatures. Extensive grain growth during deformation was observed. The stress–strain curves were compensated for grain growth by assuming power-law type of dependence on grain size and strain rate. The stress exponent n was ∼1.3 and the grain size exponent p was ∼2.7 at temperatures ranging from 1593° to 1758°C. The apparent activation energy of deformation Qd was ∼760 kJ/mol, which was lower than the activation energy for lattice diffusion of silicon and carbon in SiC and higher than that for grain-boundary diffusion of carbon in SiC. These results suggest that the deformation mechanism of the fine-grained B,C-SiC is grain-boundary sliding accommodated by the grain-boundary diffusion.

Notizen: Chromium-containing stainless steel (SS) is a prospective material for use as an interconnect in solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs). However, during operations at high temperatures, the growth of oxide scales causes the performance of the interconnect and SOFC as a whole to deteriorate. The coating of SS 446 with a conducting perovskite is a potential method of slowing the growth of oxide scale and, therefore, improving overall SOFC performance. In the present research, the structural characterization of a pure LaCrO3 thin film on the SS 446 substrates has been performed as a model material that can be used as a barrier coating for the metallic interconnect. The deposition of an amorphous La-Cr-O thin film on SS 446 was performed using radio-frequency (rf) magnetron sputtering. The deposited amorphous film was annealed in air to form the desired perovskite phase. The film underwent an amorphous to LaCrO4 phase transition during annealing at 500°C with further transformation to LaCrO3 orthorhombic phase during annealing at 700°C. A self-organized dendritic structure was reported as a result of the perovskite-phase formation. Although formation of various oxides, such as Fe2O3 and Fe3O4, was observed during the annealing of uncoated SS 446 in air, the coating of SS 446 surface with LaCrO3 film prevented formation of various oxide phases at the interconnect surface. The structural characterization of the films and SS 446 surfaces was accomplished using scanning electron microscopy with energy-dispersive X-ray analysis, X-ray diffractometry, micro-Raman spectroscopy, and nanoindentation.

Notizen: The density, surface tension, and viscosity of the melts from the PbO-B2O3-SiO2 system have been measured at temperatures in the range 1073–1473 K. The effect of composition on these properties was also investigated. The density of the melt was found to increase linearly with increasing PbO content. Molar volume was derived from the density data, and its deviation from the additivity of partial molar volumes was calculated. These deviations in molar volume from those obtained from additivity rules have been used along with the ratio of various coordination numbers of boron (as reported by Bray) to discuss the structure of the melts. The surface tension was found to decrease with decreasing SiO2/B2O3 ratio, and to increase in the range of the PbO content between 30 and 60 mol%, showing a maximum at ∼60 mol% PbO, and then decreased with further additions. This result suggested that the surface tension would be affected primarily by the B2O3 content in the range of the PbO content between 30–60 mol%, and mainly by the PbO content in the range of the PbO content 〉60 mol%, respectively. The viscosity of the melt was found to decrease linearly with increasing PbO content. The results obtained indicate that the increase in viscosity with B2O3 was half that of SiO2 (on a molar basis), and an empirical equation has been proposed for the viscosity as a function of mole fraction.

Notizen: Core/shell structures have been prepared via a mechanofusion system by employing several kinds of spherical polymers as a core material and Al2O3 powder or a mixture of Al2O3 and SiO2 powders as a shell material. The effect of the kind of core polymers on the quality of the resulting hollow alumina microspheres has been discussed on the basis of the thermal decomposition behavior of spherical polymers used as a core material. A large fraction of hollow alumina microspheres reflecting the shape and the particle size distribution of the core polymer could be fabricated after sintering at 1600°3C for 3 h, when highly cross-linked poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) microspheres with a gel fraction of 99.03% were used as a core polymer, and abrupt firing at temperatures higher than 500°3C was adopted to remove the PMMA microspheres. The addition of 5 mass% SiO2 to the Al2O3 shell layer was found to be useful for maintaining the spherical shell structure during the firing process and for fabricating a large fraction of hollow alumina microspheres after the sintering.

Notizen: Well-defined and stoichiometric spherical particles of BaTiO3 of narrow size distribution were produced at 82° and 92°3C by precipitation from chloride solutions in a strong alkaline environment. The size of the particles can be tailored in the range from ≅103 to 70–80 nm by increasing the barium concentration from ≅0.07 to 0.7 mol/L. The particles are composed of tight aggregates resulting from the assembly of several nanocrystals. The size of the nanocrystals decreases from 200–300 to 30–40 nm by increasing reactant concentration. At low barium concentration (≤0.07 mol/L at 82°3C, ≤0.06 mol/L at 92°3C), formation of BaTiO3 is strongly slowed down and nonstoichiometric, Ti-rich powders are produced. Under these conditions, the particles have the tendency to develop a dendritic-like morphology.

Notizen: Crystals of δ-Y2Si2O7 (space group P121/c1) were examined using high-temperature powder X-ray diffractometry to determine their unit-cell dimensions from 296 to 1473 K. The lattice deformation induced by thermal expansion was investigated using matrix algebra analysis to determine the directions and magnitudes of the principal distortions (Λi, i= 1,2, and 3). The directions of Λ1 and Λ3 were defined by the acute angle Λ1c, which linearly decreased from 5(2)° to —5.5(3)° with increased temperature from 504 to 1473 K. The Λ2-axis invariably coincided with the crystallographic b-axis. The magnitudes of Λ1 and Λ2 steadily increased to, respectively, 1.0061(1) and 1.0068(1) during heating to 1473 K, while Λ3 remained almost constant for the entire temperature range. The mean principal distortion, Λm (= (Λ1+Λ2+Λ3)/3), steadily increased to 1.0044(1) with increased temperature to 1473 K. The coefficient of mean linear thermal expansion (α) was derived from the mean principal strain (Λm - 1) as α= (Λm - 1)/ΔT. The temperature dependence was determined to be α= 2.03 times 103+ 1.36(T - 296) (10-9 K-1). Provided that the rule-of-mixtures holds for the Y2Si2O7/Y2SiO5 composites as protective coating on SiC substrates, the volume fractions of 0.72-0.77 (70–75 mass%) would be necessary for the Y2Si2O7 component to match the α-values of both materials.

Notizen: Microcellular silicon oxycarbide open cell ceramic foams were fabricated from a silicone resin. Microcellular foams, with a cell size ranging from ∼1–80 μm, were fabricated using poly(methyl methacrylate) microbeads as sacrificial templates. The compression strength of the foams decreased with increasing cell size.

Notizen: Electroconductive zirconia-toughened mullite (TiN/ZTM) intragranular nanocomposite was fabricated by hot-pressing a powder mixture of nano-sized TiN, ZrO2(2Y), and mullite gel. The material showed a good sinterability and could be highly densified at a low temperature of 1300°3C. Sintering temperature strongly influenced the microstructure and electrical resistivity of the material. The electrical resistivity increased monotonously from 20 Ω-cm to 1.5 times 106°3Cm, as the sintering temperature was increased from 1300° to 1500°3C. TEM results indicated that such a phenomenon could be ascribed to the changes in the microstructure of the material, which led to a decrease in the connectivity of the TiN network in the sample as the sintering temperature was increased.

Notizen: Effects of fluids on material removal rate, chipping damage, and surface roughness in the simulated clinical-dental machining of a dental-type glass ceramic were investigated. Significant differences in removal rate were obtained among the fluids investigated, but only a 4 wt% boric acid solution gave a higher removal rate than conventionally used water. Chipping damage was substantially lower for the boric acid and an oil-emulsion coolant compared with other fluids tested. Surface roughness was independent of the fluids used. The results indicate that improvement can be achieved in both material removal rate and machining damage by the appropriate selection of coolant chemistry.

Notizen: This paper reviews the structures and properties of 10 binary, ternary, and quaternary crystals within the equilibrium phase diagram of the SiO2–Y2O3–Si3N4 system. They are binary compounds SiO2, Y2O3, Si3N4; ternary compounds Si2N2O, Y2Si2O7, and YSi2O5; and quaternary crystals Y2Si3N4O3 (M-melilite), Y4Si2O7N2, (N-YAM), YSiO2N (wallastonite), and Y10(SiO4)6N2 (N-apatite, N-APT). Although the binary compounds are well-known and extensively studied, the ternary and the quaternary crystals are not. Most of the ternary and the quaternary crystals simply have been referenced as secondary phases in the processing of nitrogen ceramics. Their crystal structures are complex and not precisely determined. In the quaternary crystals, there exists O/N disorder in that the exact atomic positions of the anions cannot be uniquely determined. It is envisioned that a variety of cation–anion bonding configurations exist in these complex crystals. The electronic structure and bonding in these crystals are, therefore, of great interest and are indispensable for a fundamental understanding of structural ceramics. We have used ab initio methods to study the structure and bonding properties of these 10 crystals. For crystals with unknown or incomplete structural information, we use an accurate total energy relaxation scheme to obtain the most likely atomic positions. Based on the theoretically modeled structures, the electronic structure and bonding in these crystals are investigated and related to various local cation–anion bonding configurations. These results are presented in the form of atom-resolved partial density of states, Mulliken effective charges, and bond order values. It is shown that Y–O and Y–N bonding are not negligible and should be a part of the discussion of the overall bonding schemes in these crystals. Spectroscopic properties in the form of complex, frequency-dependent dielectric functions, X-ray absorption near-edge structure (XANES), and the electron energy-loss near-edge structure (ELNES) spectra in these crystals also are calculated and compared. These results are discussed in the context of specific bonding configurations between cations (silicon and yttrium) and anions (oxygen and nitrogen) and their implications on intergranular thin films in polycrystalline Si3N4 containing rare-earth elements.

Notizen: Simultaneous synthesis and sintering of hexagonal α-Ti1−x-Alx(N) (0 ≤x≤ 0.08) solid solutions, which contain a small amount of nitrogen, have been performed by a self-propagating high-temperature combustion method under a nitrogen pressure of 4 MPa. Dense materials (∼99% of theoretical) prepared directly from a mixture of elemental (Ti and Al) powders reveal homogeneous microstructure composed of fine grains (12–16 μm). α-Ti1−xAlx(N) (x= 0.02; Ti0.98Al0.02N0.26) exhibits a three-point bending strength σb of 390 MPa, a Vickers hardness Hv of 9.24 GPa, and a fracture toughness KIC of 4.89 MPa·m1/2; their mechanical properties are much improved by doping Al into α-Ti(N), in comparison with those (σb= 245 MPa, Hv= 9.02 GPa, and KIC= 3.77 MPa·m1/2) of α-Ti(N) fabricated under the same conditions.

Notizen: Electrophoretic deposition has been used to synthesize nickel–alumina, functionally graded materials from NiO and alumina suspensions in ethanol. Suspension stability and the kinetics of deposition were studied to determine optimum conditions. Deposition starts with an alumina suspension into which a stream of NiO suspension is injected at various flow rates to obtain the desired profiles. The latter were controlled by varying the deposition current density and component flow rate. The green bodies obtained were sintered in Ar/H2 atmosphere to reduce the NiO to nickel. Various gradation profiles were obtained illustrating the facility of EPD to synthesize continuously graded materials. NiO was used as the precursor for nickel to alleviate settling and rough columnar deposit problems.

Notizen: The total mean-square error (MSE) of the estimated model, defined as the sum of the standard model variance and the bias variance, is used to define the truncation level of the singular-value decomposition to give a reasonable balance between model resolution and model variance. This balance is determined largely by the data and no further assumptions are necessary except that the bias terms are estimated sufficiently well. This principle has been tested on the 1D magnetotelluric inverse problem with special emphasis on high-frequency radio magnetotelluric (RMT) data. Simulations clearly demonstrate that the method provides a good balance between resolution and variance. Starting from a homogeneous half-space, the best solution is sought for a fixed set of singular values. The model variance is estimated from the sum of the inverse eigenvalues squared, up to a certain threshold, and the bias variance is estimated from the model projections on the remaining eigenvectors. By varying the threshold, the minimum of the MSE is found for an increasing number of fixed singular values until the number of active singular values becomes greater than or equal to the estimated number. As a side-effect, the depth of penetration of a given set of measurements can be estimated very efficiently by simply noting at which depth the final model deviates little from the starting homogeneous half-space model. A suite of synthetic data is inverted and an example of inversion of one site is shown to illustrate how the truncation is carried out as the non-linear inversion process proceeds. A field example with a profile across a plume of contaminated groundwater in the Netherlands shows good agreement with the electrical resistivity obtained in a nearby borehole.

Notizen: Faithful recording of the elastic wavefield at the sea-bed is required for quantitative applications of 4C seismic. The accuracy of the recorded vectorial wavefield depends on factors that vary from deployment to deployment. This paper focuses on one such factor: the interaction of the acquisition system with the sea-bed, which is referred to here as coupling. We show, using multi-azimuth data recorded with a cable-based sea-bed acquisition system, whose sensor housing is cylindrically shaped and with the in-line geophone fixed to the cable, that coupling depends on the propagation direction and wave type (P- or S-waves) of the incident wavefield. We show that coupling is more critical for S-waves than for P-waves. Detection of inconsistent coupling using both P- and S-waves is therefore mandatory. A data-driven processing method to compensate for the frequency-dependent coupling response of the cross-line geophone is derived. Its application to field data verifies the effectiveness of the method.

Notizen: The combined use of time-lapse PP and PS seismic data is analysed for optimal discrimination between pressure and saturation changes. The theory is based on a combination of the well-known Gassmann model and the geomechanical grain model derived by Hertz and Mindlin. A key parameter in the discrimination process is the opening angle between curves representing constant changes in PP and PS reflectivity plotted against pressure and saturation changes. The optimal discrimination angle in the pressure–saturation space is 90° and this is used to determine optimal offset ranges for both PP and PS data. For typical production scenarios, we find an optimal offset range corresponding to an angle of incidence of 25–30°, for both PP and PS data. For gas we find slightly different results. This means that conventional survey parameters used in marine multicomponent acquisition should be sufficient for the purpose of estimating pressure and fluid saturation changes during production.

Notizen: Cross-hole anisotropic electrical and seismic tomograms of fractured metamorphic rock have been obtained at a test site where extensive hydrological data were available. A strong correlation between electrical resistivity anisotropy and seismic compressional-wave velocity anisotropy has been observed. Analysis of core samples from the site reveal that the shale-rich rocks have fabric-related average velocity anisotropy of between 10% and 30%. The cross-hole seismic data are consistent with these values, indicating that observed anisotropy might be principally due to the inherent rock fabric rather than to the aligned sets of open fractures. One region with velocity anisotropy greater than 30% has been modelled as aligned open fractures within an anisotropic rock matrix and this model is consistent with available fracture density and hydraulic transmissivity data from the boreholes and the cross-hole resistivity tomography data. However, in general the study highlights the uncertainties that can arise, due to the relative influence of rock fabric and fluid-filled fractures, when using geophysical techniques for hydrological investigations.

Notizen: Shear-wave polarization and time delay are attributes commonly used for fracture detection and characterization. In time-lapse analysis these parameters can be used as indicators of changes in the fracture orientation and density. Indeed, changes in fracture characteristics provide key information for increased reservoir characterization and exploitation. However, relative to the data uncertainty, is the comparison of these parameters over time statistically meaningful? We present the uncertainty in shear-wave polarization and time delay as a function of acquisition uncertainties, such as receiver and source misorientation, miscoupling and band-limited random noise. This study is applied to a time-lapse borehole seismic survey, recorded in Vacuum Field, New Mexico. From the estimated uncertainties for each survey, the uncertainty in the difference between the two surveys is 31° for the shear-wave polarization angle and 4 ms for the shear-wave time delay. Any changes in these parameters greater than these error estimates can be interpreted with confidence. This analysis can be applied to any time-lapse measurement to provide an interval of confidence in the interpretation of shear-wave polarization angles and time splitting.

Notizen: A series of downhole magnetometric resistivity (DHMMR) and downhole electromagnetic (DHEM) surveys were conducted near Broken Hill, New South Wales, Australia, and at Zinkgruvan, Sweden, to determine how probe and receiver equipment choices affect the amount of noise visible in borehole MMR and EM data. Noise analyses performed on the data, using the standard deviation to gauge the relative noise levels between different probes and receiver systems, indicate that high noise levels in MMR data result primarily from the use of a three-component EM probe, which has a reduced effective area and hence a higher noise floor compared with a single-component EM probe. High noise, attributable to cultural sources such as nearby power lines, in either MMR or EM data can be reduced through the use of full-waveform, multipurpose receiver systems. These systems allow for the use of tapered stacking, which is a more effective method of eliminating coherent noise associated with power-line transients than the boxcar-stacking method used by traditional receiver systems.

Notizen: Interlayer slipping breccia-type gold deposit – a new type of gold deposit, defined recently in the northern margin of the Jiaolai Basin, Shandong Province, China – occurs in interlayer slip faults distributed along the basin margin. It has the features of large orebody thickness (ranging from 14 m to 46 m, with an average thickness of 30 m), shallow embedding (0–50 m thickness of cover), low tenor of gold ore (ranging from 3 g/t to 5 g/t), easy mining and ore dressing. This type of gold deposit has promising metallogenic forecasting and potential for economic exploitation.A ground gamma-ray survey in the Pengjiakuang gold-ore district indicates that the potassium/thorium ratio is closely related to the mineralization intensity, i.e. the larger the potassium/thorium ratio, the higher the mineralization. The gold mineralized alteration zone was defined by a potassium/thorium ratio of 0.35. A seismic survey confirms the location of the top and bottom boundaries and images various features within the Pengjiakuang gold mineralization belt. The gold-bearing shovel slipped belt dips to the south at an angle of 50–55° at the surface and 15–20° at depth. The seismic profile is interpreted in terms of a structural band on the seismic section characterized by a three-layered model. The upper layer is represented by weakly discontinuous reflections that represent the overlying conglomerates. A zone of stronger reflections representing the interlayer slip fault (gold-bearing mineralized zone) is imaged within the middle of the section, while the strongest reflections are in the lower part of the section and represent metamorphic rocks at depth. At the same time, the seismic reflection survey confirms the existence of a granite body at depth, indicating that ore-forming fluids may be related to the granite. A CSAMT survey showed that the gold-bearing mineralized zone is a conductive layer and contains a low-resistivity anomaly ranging from 2 Ωm to 200 Ωm.

Notizen: The elastic properties and anisotropy of shales are strongly influenced by the degree of alignment of the grain scale texture. In general, an orientation distribution function (ODF) can be used to describe this alignment, which, in practice, can be characterized by two Legendre coefficients. We discuss various statistical ODFs that define the alignment by spreading from a mean value; in particular, the Gaussian, Fisher and Bingham distributions. We compare the statistical models with an ODF resulting from pure vertical compaction (no shear strain) of a sediment. The compaction ODF may be used to estimate how the elastic properties and anisotropy evolve due to burial of clayey sediments.Our study shows that the three statistical ODFs produce almost identical correspondence between the two Legendre coefficients as a function of the spreading parameter, so that the spreading parameter of one ODF can be converted to the spreading parameter of another ODF. In most cases it is then sufficient to apply the spreading parameter for the ODF instead of the two Legendre coefficients. The effect of compaction on the ODF gives a slightly different correspondence between the two Legendre coefficients from that for the other models. In principle, this opens up the possibility of distinguishing anisotropy effects due to compaction from those due to other processes.We also study reflection amplitudes versus angle of incidence (AVA) for all wave modes, where shales having various ODFs overlie an isotropic medium. The AVA responses are modelled using both exact and approximation formulae, and their intercepts and gradients are compared. The modelling shows that the S-wave velocity is sensitive to any perturbation in the spreading parameter, while the P-wave velocity becomes increasingly sensitive to a perturbation of a less ordered system. Similar observations are found for the AVA of the P-P and P-SV waves. Modelling indicates that a combined use of the amplitude versus offset of P-P and P-SV reflected waves may reveal certain grain scale alignment properties of shale-like rocks.

Notizen: Although it is believed that natural fracture sets predominantly have near-vertical orientation, oblique stresses and some other mechanisms may tilt fractures away from the vertical. Here, we examine an effective medium produced by a single system of obliquely dipping rotationally invariant fractures embedded in a transversely isotropic with a vertical symmetry axis (VTI) background rock. This model is monoclinic with a vertical symmetry plane that coincides with the dip plane of the fractures.Multicomponent seismic data acquired over such a medium possess several distinct features that make it possible to estimate the fracture orientation. For example, the vertically propagating fast shear wave (and the fast converted PS-wave) is typically polarized in the direction of the fracture strike. The normal-moveout (NMO) ellipses of horizontal reflection events are co-orientated with the dip and strike directions of the fractures, which provides an independent estimate of the fracture azimuth. However, the polarization vector of the slow shear wave at vertical incidence does not lie in the horizontal plane – an unusual phenomenon that can be used to evaluate fracture dip. Also, for oblique fractures the shear-wave splitting coefficient at vertical incidence becomes dependent on fracture infill (saturation).A complete medium-characterization procedure includes estimating the fracture compliances and orientation (dip and azimuth), as well as the Thomsen parameters of the VTI background. We demonstrate that both the fracture and background parameters can be obtained from multicomponent wide-azimuth data using the vertical velocities and NMO ellipses of PP-waves and two split SS-waves (or the traveltimes of PS-waves) reflected from horizontal interfaces. Numerical tests corroborate the accuracy and stability of the inversion algorithm based on the exact expressions for the vertical and NMO velocities.

Notizen: The azimuth moveout (AMO) operator in homogeneous transversely isotropic media with a vertical symmetry axis (VTI), as in isotropic media, has an overall skewed saddle shape. However, the AMO operator in anisotropic media is complicated; it includes, among other things, triplications at low angles. Even in weaker anisotropies, with the anisotropy parameter η= 0.1 (10% anisotropy), the AMO operator is considerably different from the isotropic operator, although free of triplications. The structure of the operator in VTI media (positive η) is stretched (has a wider aperture) compared with operators in isotropic media, with the amount of stretch being dependent on the strength of anisotropy. If the medium is both vertically inhomogeneous, i.e. the vertical velocity is a function of depth (v(z)), and anisotropic, which is a common combination in practical problems, the shape of the operator again differs from that for isotropic media. However, the difference in the AMO operator between the homogeneous and the v(z) cases, even for anisotropic media, is small. Stated simply, anisotropy influences the shape and aperture of the AMO operator far more than vertical inhomogeneity does.

Notizen: The attenuation of ground-penetrating radar (GPR) energy in the subsurface decreases and shifts the amplitude spectrum of the radar pulse to lower frequencies (absorption) with increasing traveltime and causes also a distortion of wavelet phase (dispersion). The attenuation is often expressed by the quality factor Q. For GPR studies, Q can be estimated from the ratio of the real part to the imaginary part of the dielectric permittivity.We consider a complex power function of frequency for the dielectric permittivity, and show that this dielectric response corresponds to a frequency-independent-Q or simply a constant-Q model. The phase velocity (dispersion relationship) and the absorption coefficient of electromagnetic waves also obey a frequency power law. This approach is easy to use in the frequency domain and the wave propagation can be described by two parameters only, for example Q and the phase velocity at an arbitrary reference frequency. This simplicity makes it practical for any inversion technique. Furthermore, by using the Hilbert transform relating the velocity and the absorption coefficient (which obeys a frequency power law), we find the same dispersion relationship for the phase velocity. Both approaches are valid for a constant value of Q over a restricted frequency-bandwidth, and are applicable in a material that is assumed to have no instantaneous dielectric response.Many GPR profiles acquired in a dry aeolian environment have shown a strong reflectivity inside dunes. Changes in water content are believed to be the origin of this reflectivity. We model the radar reflections from the bottom of a dry aeolian dune using the 1D wavelet modelling method. We discuss the choice of the reference wavelet in this modelling approach. A trial-and-error match of modelled and observed data was performed to estimate the optimum set of parameters characterizing the materials composing the site. Additionally, by combining the complex refractive index method (CRIM) and/or Topp equations for the bulk permittivity (dielectric constant) of moist sandy soils with a frequency power law for the dielectric response, we introduce them into the expression for the reflection coefficient. Using this method, we can estimate the water content and explain its effect on the reflection coefficient and on wavelet modelling.

Notizen: The forward computation of the gravitational and magnetic fields due to a 3D body with an arbitrary boundary and continually varying density or magnetization is an important problem in gravitational and magnetic prospecting. In order to solve the inverse problem for the arbitrary components of the gravitational and magnetic anomalies due to an arbitrary 3D body under complex conditions, including an uneven observation surface, the existence of background anomalies and very little or no a priori information, we used a spherical coordinate system to systematically investigate forward methods for such anomalies and developed a series of universal spherical harmonic expansions of gravitational and magnetic fields. For the case of a 3D body with an arbitrary boundary and continually varying magnetization, we have also given the surface integral expressions for the common spherical harmonic coefficients in the expansion of the magnetic field due to the body, and a very precise numerical integral algorithm to calculate them. Thus a simple and effective method of solving the forward problem for magnetic fields due to 3D bodies of this kind has been found, and in this way a foundation is laid for solving the inverse problem of these magnetic fields. In addition, by replacing the parameters and unit vectors in the spherical harmonic expansion of a magnetic field by gravitational parameters and a downward unit vector, we have also derived a forward method for the gravitational field (similar to that for the magnetic case) of a 3D body with an arbitrary boundary and continually varying density.

Notizen: 2.5D modelling approximates 3D wave propagation in the dip-direction of a 2D geological model. Attention is restricted to raypaths for waves propagating in a plane. In this way, fast inversion or migration can be performed. For velocity analysis, this reduction of the problem is particularly useful.We review 2.5D modelling for Born volume scattering and Born–Helmholtz surface scattering. The amplitudes are corrected for 3D wave propagation, taking into account both in-plane and out-of-plane geometrical spreading. We also derive some new inversion/migration results. An AVA-compensated migration routine is presented that is simplified compared with earlier results. This formula can be used to create common-image gathers for use in velocity analysis by studying the residual moveout. We also give a migration formula for the energy-flux-normalized plane-wave reflection coefficient that models large contrast in the medium parameters not treated by the Born and the Born–Helmholtz equation results. All results are derived using the generalized Radon transform (GRT) directly in the natural coordinate system characterized by scattering angle and migration dip. Consequently, no Jacobians are needed in their calculation.Inversion and migration in an orthorhombic medium or a transversely isotropic (TI) medium with tilted symmetry axis are the lowest symmetries for practical purposes (symmetry axis is in the plane). We give an analysis, using derived methods, of the parameters for these two types of media used in velocity analysis, inversion and migration. The kinematics of the two media involve the same parameters, hence there is no distinction when carrying out velocity analysis. The in-plane scattering coefficient, used in the inversion and migration, also depends on the same parameters for both media. The out-of-plane geometrical spreading, necessary for amplitude-preserving computations, for the TI medium is dependent on the same parameters that govern in-plane kinematics. For orthorhombic media, information on additional parameters is required that is not needed for in-plane kinematics and the scattering coefficients.Resolution analysis of the scattering coefficient suggests that direct inversion by GRT yields unreliable parameter estimates. A more practical approach to inversion is amplitude-preserving migration followed by AVA analysis.SYMBOLS AND NOTATIONA list of symbols and notation is given in Appendix D.

Notizen: A strategy for multiple removal consists of estimating a model of the multiples and then adaptively subtracting this model from the data by estimating shaping filters. A possible and efficient way of computing these filters is by minimizing the difference or misfit between the input data and the filtered multiples in a least-squares sense. Therefore, the signal is assumed to have minimum energy and to be orthogonal to the noise. Some problems arise when these conditions are not met. For instance, for strong primaries with weak multiples, we might fit the multiple model to the signal (primaries) and not to the noise (multiples). Consequently, when the signal does not exhibit minimum energy, we propose using the L1-norm, as opposed to the L2-norm, for the filter estimation step. This choice comes from the well-known fact that the L1-norm is robust to ‘large’ amplitude differences when measuring data misfit. The L1-norm is approximated by a hybrid L1/L2-norm minimized with an iteratively reweighted least-squares (IRLS) method. The hybrid norm is obtained by applying a simple weight to the data residual. This technique is an excellent approximation to the L1-norm. We illustrate our method with synthetic and field data where internal multiples are attenuated. We show that the L1-norm leads to much improved attenuation of the multiples when the minimum energy assumption is violated. In particular, the multiple model is fitted to the multiples in the data only, while preserving the primaries.

Notizen: Sonic techniques in geophysical prospecting involve elastic wave velocity measurements that are performed by placing acoustic transmitters and receivers in a fluid-filled borehole. The signals recorded at the receivers are processed to obtain compressional- and shear-wave velocities in the surrounding formation. These velocities are generally used in seismic surveys for the time-to-depth conversion and other formation parameters, such as porosity and lithology. Depending upon the type of transmitter used (e.g. monopole or dipole) and as a result of eccentering, it is possible to excite axisymmetric (n= 0), flexural (n= 1) and quadrupole (n= 2) families of modes propagating along the borehole. We present a study of various propagating and leaky modes that includes their dispersion and attenuation characteristics caused by radiation into the surrounding formation. A knowledge of propagation characteristics of borehole modes helps in a proper selection of transmitter bandwidth for suppressing unwanted modes that create problems in the inversion for the compressional- and shear-wave velocities from the dispersive arrivals. It also helps in the design of a transmitter for a preferential excitation of a given mode in order to reduce interference with drill-collar or drilling noise for sonic measurements-while-drilling. Computational results for the axisymmetric family of modes in a fast formation with a shear-wave velocity of 2032 m/s show the existence of Stoneley, pseudo-Rayleigh and anharmonic cut-off modes. In a slow formation with a shear-wave velocity of 508 m/s, we find the existence of the Stoneley mode and the first leaky compressional mode which cuts in at approximately the same normalized frequency ωa/VS= 2.5 (a is the borehole radius) as that of the fast formation. The corresponding modes among the flexural family include the lowest-order flexural and anharmonic cut-off modes. For both the fast and slow formations, the first anharmonic mode cuts in at a normalized frequency ωa/VS= 1.5 approximately. Cut-off frequencies of anharmonic modes are inversely proportional to the borehole radius in the absence of any tool. The borehole quadrupole mode can also be used for estimating formation shear slownesses. The radial depth of investigation with a quadrupole mode is marginally less than that of a flexural mode because of its higher frequency of excitation.

Notizen: A series of time-lapse seismic cross-well and single-well experiments were conducted in a diatomite reservoir to monitor the injection of CO2 into a hydrofracture zone, based on P- and S-wave data. A high-frequency piezo-electric P-wave source and an orbital-vibrator S-wave source were used to generate waves that were recorded by hydrophones as well as 3-component geophones. During the first phase the set of seismic experiments was conducted after the injection of water into the hydrofractured zone. The set of seismic experiments was repeated after a time period of seven months during which CO2 was injected into the hydrofractured zone. The questions to be answered ranged from the detectability of the geological structure in the diatomic reservoir to the detectability of CO2 within the hydrofracture. Furthermore, it was intended to determine which experiment (cross-well or single-well) is best suited to resolve these features.During the pre-injection experiment, the P-wave velocities exhibited relatively low values between 1700 and 1900 m/s, which decreased to 1600–1800 m/s during the post-injection phase (−5%). The analysis of the pre-injection S-wave data revealed slow S-wave velocities between 600 and 800 m/s, while the post-injection data revealed velocities between 500 and 700 m/s (−6%). These velocity estimates produced high Poisson's ratios between 0.36 and 0.46 for this highly porous (∼50%) material. Differencing post- and pre-injection data revealed an increase in Poisson's ratio of up to 5%. Both velocity and Poisson's ratio estimates indicate the dissolution of CO2 in the liquid phase of the reservoir accompanied by an increase in pore pressure.The single-well data supported the findings of the cross-well experiments. P- and S-wave velocities as well as Poisson's ratios were comparable to the estimates of the cross-well data.The cross-well experiment did not detect the presence of the hydrofracture but appeared to be sensitive to overall changes in the reservoir and possibly the presence of a fault. In contrast, the single-well reflection data revealed an arrival that could indicate the presence of the hydrofracture between the source and receiver wells, while it did not detect the presence of the fault, possibly due to out-of-plane reflections.

Notizen:   Clusters now form a central element in many regional economic development policies. Location within a cluster of related industries is thought to increase a firm's competitive advantage resulting in higher output and productivity growth rates than in similar firms located beyond the cluster. This study focuses on owner-managers operating small firms within a traditional cluster of metalworking industries and empirically examines the relationship between growth-orientation and the extent and nature of cluster embeddedness. The results indicate only a limited number of differences in growth-orientation given variations in levels of cluster embeddedness. Contrary to conventional wisdom, many of the most growth-oriented entrepreneurs focus their activities outside the cluster, especially in terms of market-based linkages. However, those firms with more advanced process technologies do tend to show above average within cluster linkages.

Notizen:   The goal of this paper is twofold. The first goal is to incorporate spatial structure within shift-share analysis, to take into account interregional interaction in the decomposition analysis. Secondly, this paper develops a taxonomy of regional growth rate decompositions. A taxonomy of the spatial structure is presented; it comprises twenty alternative decomposition structures, including the original standard shift-share analysis as well as six alternative structures outlined in the taxonomy for non-spatial structures.

Notizen: Book reviewed: Internet, Economic Growth and Globalization: Perspective on the New Economy in Europe, Japan and the USA. Edited by Claude E. Barfield, Günter Heiduk, and Paul J.J. Welfens: Springer, 2003. 385pp. ISBN 3-540-00286-3.

Notizen:   This paper discusses various aspects of the economic analysis of commuting behavior. It starts with a review of two difficulties associated with urban economics models: the empirically falsified prediction of the relation between commuting time and income, and the presence of substantial excess commuting. Notwithstanding these anomalies, research that focuses directly on the value of travel time provides evidence that there is substantial resistance against commuting among large groups of workers. However, commuting costs are just one among many other explanatory variables for actual commuting behavior, and commuting itself has become much less onerous over time. This suggests that commuting costs play a much more limited role than has been assumed in the past. On the other hand, empirical evidence suggests that space is more important than one would be inclined to think on the basis of the considerations just given. These empirical regularities suggest that other space-related aspects of the functioning of urban labor and housing markets are more important than was previously thought.

Notizen:   Commuting is popularly viewed as a stressful, costly, time-wasting experience from the individual perspective, with the attendant congestion imposing major social costs as well. However, several authors have noted that commuting can also offer benefits to the individual, serving as a valued transition between the home and work realms of personal life. Using survey data collected from about 1,300 commuting workers in three San Francisco Bay Area neighborhoods, empirical models are developed for four key variables measured for commute travel, namely: Objective Mobility, Subjective Mobility, Travel Liking, and Relative Desired Mobility. Explanatory variables include measures of general travel-related attitudes, personality traits, lifestyle priorities, and sociodemographic characteristics. Both descriptive statistics and analytical models indicate that commuting is not the unmitigated burden that it is widely perceived to be. About half of the sample were relatively satisfied with the amount they commute, with a small segment actually wanting to increase that amount. Both the psychological impact of commuting, and the amounts people want to commute relative to what they are doing now, are strongly influenced by their liking for commuting. An implication for policy is that some people may be more resistant than expected toward approaches intended to induce reductions in commuting (including, for example, telecommuting). New creativity may be needed to devise policies that recognize the inherent positive utility of travel, while trying to find socially beneficial ways to fulfill desires to maintain or increase travel.

Notizen:   Information and Communication Technology (ICT) has become an important tool to promote a variety of public goals and policies. In the past years much attention has been given to the expected social benefits from deploying ICTs in different urban fields (transportation, education, public participation in planning, etc.) and to its potential to mitigate various current or emerging urban problems. The growing importance of ICTs in daily life, business activities, and governance prompts the need to consider ICTs more explicitly in urban policies. Alongside the expectation that the private sector will play a major role in the ICT field, the expected benefits from ICTs also encourage urban authorities to formulate proper public ICT policies.Against this background, various intriguing research questions arise. What are the urban policy-makers’ expectations about ICTs? And how do they assess the future implications of ICTs for their city? A thorough analysis of these questions will provide a better understanding of the extent to which urban authorities are willing to invest in and to adopt a dedicated ICT policy.This study is focusing on the way urban decision-makers perceive the opportunities of ICT policy. After a sketch of recent development and policy issues, a conceptual model is developed to map out the driving forces of urban ICT policies in cities in Europe. Next, by highlighting the importance of understanding the decision-maker's “black box,” three crucial variables are identified within this box. In the remaining part of the paper these three variables will be operationalized by using a large survey comprising more than 200 European cities. By means of statistical multivariate methods (i.e., factor and cluster analysis), the decision-makers were able to be characterized according to the way they perceive their city (the concept of “imaginable city”), their opinion about ICT, and the way they assess the relevance of ICT policies to their city. Next, a solid explanatory framework will be offered by using a log-linear logit analysis to test the relationships between these three aspects.

Notizen: Books reviewedJohannes Brocker, Dirk Dohse, and Rudiger Soltwedel, Innovation Clustersand Interregional Competition.Norman Walzer, The American Midwest: Managing Changein Rural Transition.G.D. Hewings, M. Sonis, and D. Boyce, Trade, Networksand Hierarchies: Modeling Regionaland Interregional Economies.

Notizen:   Inter-industry employment shifts were largely responsible for changes in the income distribution in the Pittsburgh region during the 1980s. Kernel density estimators were used, together with decomposition techniques developed by DiNardo et al. (1996) to show that industry shifts were responsible for over 90 percent of the earnings reductions at some points on the earnings distribution. Most of the losses at the lower end of the distribution occurred in the early 1980s as the economy plunged into a deep recession. The recovery in the later part of the decade brought little improvement as earnings in the lower part of the distribution continued to fall with the increase in employment of part-time workers in the low-wage trade and service sectors.

Notizen: Books reviewedJoel Greenberg, A Natural History Of The Chicago Region.James H. Carr and Zhong Yi Tong, Replicating Microfinance In The United States.

Notizen:   Linkages among changes in employment, earnings per worker, and pollution per square mile are estimated for 3,036 U.S. counties for the period 1987 to 1995 using a three-equation disequilibrium adjustment model. Counties with higher shares of African-Americans experienced higher earnings growth rates over the period 1987-1995, as did counties with proportionally more females. Counties in states with higher shares of unionized workers had higher earnings growth rates but generated fewer new jobs. Firm size had a significant and negative effect on earnings growth while higher costs of living were associated with higher earnings growth. Also, metro counties and counties in the Northeastern U.S. experienced higher earnings growth than their non-metro counterparts and counties in other geographic regions. Statistically, faster job growth was found to accelerate the rate of earnings growth per worker. The authors conclude that counties concerned with job growth should recruit or attempt to spawn the creation of larger firms, recognizing that for some firms such a strategy may come at the cost of more rapid increases in pollution. Counties concerned with increasing the rate of growth in per worker earnings should instead focus on the creation of smaller firms.

Notizen:   Both economic and demographic contexts influence aggregate migration streams at the regional scale. The influence of demographic and economic context on aggregate migration at the nonmetropolitan scale, however, remains unstudied. This paper presents analysis based on 1980 and 1990 Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) data related to age cohort effects on nonmetropolitan population change. The analysis provides enhanced understanding of how demographic factors like the baby boom might influence population movements into and out of nonmetropolitan regions. Using modified age-cohort decomposition techniques, the analysis demonstrates how the fluctuations in nonmetropolitan population growth between 1975 and 1990 are tied to the differential migration flows of the peak baby boom years (those born between 1955 and 1964). The analysis further demonstrates how fluctuations in nonmetropolitan population growth across regions are tied to migration flows of these baby boomers. Significant variation remains within regions.

Notizen:   This paper shows that in the Baltic countries, commuting reduces urban-rural wage and employment disparities and increases national output. To quantify the effect of commuting on wage differentials, two sets of earnings functions are estimated (based on Estonian, Latvian, and Lithuanian Labor Force Surveys) with location variables (capital city, rural, etc.) measured at the workplace and at the place of residence. We find that the ceteris paribus wage gap between capital city and rural areas, as well as between capital and other cities is significantly narrowed by commuting in some cases but remains almost unchanged in others. Different outcomes are explained by country-specific spatial patterns of commuting, educational and occupational composition of commuting flows, and presence or absence of wage discrimination against rural residents in urban markets. A treatment effects model is used to estimate individual wage gains to rural—urban or inter-city commuting; these gains are substantial in most but not all cases. Wage effects of commuting distance, as well as impact of education, gender, ethnicity, and local labor market conditions on the commuting decision are also explored.

Notizen:   Over the last two decades many European governments have pursued ambitious research and development (R&D) policies with the aim of fostering innovation and economic growth in peripheral regions of Europe. The question is whether these policies are paying off. Arguments such as the need to reach a minimum threshold of research, the existence of important distance decay effects in the diffusion of technological spillovers, the presence of increasing returns to scale in R&D investments, or the unavailability of the necessary socio-economic conditions in these regions to generate innovation seem to cast doubts about the possible returns of these sort of policies. This paper addresses this question. A two-step analysis is used in order to first identify the impact of R&D investment of the private, public, and higher education sectors on innovation (measured as the number of patent applications per million population). The influence of innovation and innovation growth on economic growth is then addressed. The results indicate that R&D investment, as a whole, and higher education R&D investment in peripheral regions of the EU, in particular, are positively associated with innovation. The existence and strength of this association are, however, contingent upon region-specific socio-economic characteristics, which affect the capacity of each region to transform R&D investment into innovation and, eventually, innovation into economic growth.

Notizen:   In the international business literature location behavior has traditionally been analyzed using Dunning's (1977) OLI framework, which focuses on the nature, role, and behavior of multinational enterprise (MNE). In this paper it is argued that this approach is now no longer appropriate for discussing the spatial behavior of MNEs, because of the fundamental changes which have taken place either in MNE organization or in the global and institutional environment for foreign direct investment (FDI). At the same time, the paper argues that current location theory from regional economics and economic geography is also largely unsuitable for discussing these issues, such that the spatial behavior of the MNE provides a set of difficult challenges to location analysts. There appears to have been some response to these issues from the international business and management literature, most notably the Porter literature on clusters. However, it is also argued here that this literature provides few, if any, real answers to the problems set by the geographical behavior of the MNE. It is concluded that a fusion of traditional economic geography approaches with a focus on the information and organizational aspects of the firm and the region under consideration may be a way forward for both theory and empirical analysis.

Notizen:   This paper documents the investigation of the impact of metropolitan structure on the commute behavior of urban residents in the Netherlands. Not only has the impact of monocentrism versus polycentrism been analyzed, but the influence of metropolitan density and size has also been considered, together with the ratio of employment to population and the growth of the population and employment. Furthermore, data are used at a variety of levels of analysis ranging from the individual worker to the metropolitan region rather than being drawn from aggregate level statistics alone. Multilevel regression modeling is applied to take account of the interdependencies among these levels of aggregation. With regard to mode choice, the results indicate that the probability of driving an auto to work is lower in employment-rich metropolitan regions, and rises as the number of jobs per resident has grown strongly. Furthermore, women in most polycentric regions are less likely to commute as an auto driver. All else being equal, commute distances and times for auto drivers are longer in most polycentric regions than in monocentric urban areas. In addition, commute time as an auto driver rises with metropolitan size, whereas commute distance depends on employment density and the growth of the number of jobs per resident. The investigation shows that metropolitan structure, although significantly influencing commute patterns, explains only a small part of the variation of individuals’ commute behavior.

Notizen:   Economic competitiveness now has less to do with new materials than with new ways of producing, utilizing, and combining diverse knowledges. It is branded as symptomatic of a “new” economy and is often juxtaposed against the “old” economy. As accelerating technological change has greatly increased the volume and quality of the information available to organizations, to firms, and to individual employees, it is asserted that the economy has become more “new” than “old.” But this is predicated on the assumption that there is a “new” economy and that it is somehow distinguishable from the “old.” This paper explores the basis for this dichotomy and whether it really adds anything to understanding contemporary economies and their ongoing development. It will be argued that it is more useful and constructive to examine the economy through a lens dominated by service industries that are now the key drivers of change (innovation, competition, employment) and development. The paper is concluded with a discussion of some items that could usefully be part of an agenda for further research by economic geographers on the evolving spatial and structural attributes of service work and organizations and their impact on cities or regions at different scales of analysis.

Notizen:   With the passage of the Telecommunications Act of 1996, Congress directed the Federal Communications Commission and all fifty U.S. states to encourage the deployment of advanced telecommunication capability in a reasonable and timely manner. Today, with the rollout of advanced data services such as digital subscriber lines (xDSL), cable modems, and fixed wireless technologies, broadband has become an important component of telecommunication service and competition. Unfortunately, the deployment of last-mile infrastructure enabling high-speed access has proceeded more slowly than anticipated and competition in many areas is relatively sparse. More importantly, there are significant differences in the availability of broadband services between urban and rural areas. This paper explores aspects of broadband access as a function of market demand and provider competition. Data collected from the Federal Communications Commission is analyzed using a geographic information system and spatial statistical techniques. Results suggest significant spatial variation in broadband Internet access as a function of provider competition in the United States.

Notizen:   This article reports on an attempt to duplicate the results of “Regime, Polity, and Economic Growth: The Latin American Experience,” published in the Winter 1995 issue of Growth and Change. The original article used the Parks method to analyze cross section time series data, and concluded that after controlling for other relevant variables military governments have lower rates of economic growth than their civilian counterparts. Using data provided by the original researcher, and using various regression techniques including the Parks method, we were not able to reproduce the original results. We attribute this to problems in both the original data and regression techniques.

Notizen:   This essay reevaluates “Regime, Polity, and Economic Growth: The Latin American Experience,” published in Growth and Change 26 (1995): 77-104. Particularly, it reexamines three issues: data, estimation, and research design. Furthermore, it retests the same model with the same data through alternative estimation methods. The new results from the panel corrected standard errors (PCSEs) estimators, which are more rigorous than the Parks estimation, support and confirm the original finding that a civilian government in the eleven Latin American countries during the period of 1982-1988 was able to generate a higher economic growth rate than their military or military-civilian counterparts.

Notizen:   Population, employment, and income changes in a region comprised of eighteen nonmetropolitan counties of Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, and New York are described using Bureau of Economic Analysis data covering 1970 to 2000. Changes at the county level are examined as net differences using pooled cross-section time series analysis. The specific focus of the empirical analysis is the effect that environmental amenities have in population and economic change. Empirical results indicate that a county's relative endowment of environmental amenities has positive economic change effects, but only when the county is relatively accessible as well. Further, the environmental amenity effects vary in their temporal consistency, even when accessibility is taken into account. In general, however, the reported results support the proposition that even relatively moderate environmental amenities can hold positive effects for economic change.

Notizen:   While previous research has generally found that immigration raises unemployment for natives, effects are often more muted than expected. Anticipated out-migration responses have been similarly difficult to discern. However, these findings may be byproducts of the long-run nature of most inquiries, which furthermore do not account for changes in natives’ labor force participation. In response, this study evaluates the impact of the arrival of low-skilled immigrants on low-skilled natives in urban areas over a five year period. Initial static results from the Census Basic Monthly Survey clearly indicate that immigrants have a significant negative impact on natives’ labor force participation. Building upon these static panel results, characteristics of immigrants’ destination choices are examined along with the ensuing adjustment process through dynamic analyses of local markets. Surges of immigrants significantly reduce the labor force participation of low-skilled natives, emphasizing this often neglected channel for labor market adjustment. Previous work may thus understate the true impact of immigrants on local labor markets by focusing on the longer term and ignoring adjustments through participation.

Notizen:   The consequences of the heavy inflow of foreign talent for U.S. scientists and engineers over the period 1973-1997 are examined using data from the Survey of Doctorate Recipients. Of particular interest is whether non-citizens trained in the United States have displaced citizens from jobs in science and engineering (S&E). Using a novel adaptation of the shift-share technique, it is shown that citizen S&E doctorates have fewer jobs in S&E and fewer academic jobs than their non-citizen counterparts for two reasons: the citizen doctoral population has experienced slower growth than the non-citizen doctoral population, and citizen S&E doctorates have been displaced. Whether the displacement observed was a voluntary response of citizens to the lure of better opportunities elsewhere or an involuntary response indicative of having been pushed out by foreign talent remains to be determined.

Notizen:   This paper argues that search theory is a useful addition to the way economists and geographers have approached the study of commuting behavior. This is illustrated by showing that introduction of a spatial element into the standard model of job search leads to the prediction of critical isochrones. Moreover, in the context of an urban economy with decentralized employment, the spatial search model predicts excess commuting. Search theory also suggests that regression toward the mean may play a confusing role in data describing the development of commutes over time, such as has been used in recent empirical work. Finally, the paper develops a simple spatial equilibrium search model in which employers set their wages optimally and searchers determine their reservation wages optimally in mutually consistent ways. The spatial element is crucial for the existence of such an equilibrium in which reservation wages of all searchers and wages set by all employers are identical.

Notizen:   Portes and Borocz's (1989) segmented assimilation framework argued that the assimilation of immigrants into American society does not necessarily or automatically lead to similarity and equality with the mainstream culture. Instead, endowed human capital, the nature of immigration, and reception contextualize the process and potentially lead to differential outcomes. Recognizing that spatial differences in assimilation may also exist, the segmented assimilation framework is extended within this paper to include a more explicit recognition of geography's role in shaping the assimilation trajectory. The empirical analysis draws upon the 1980 and 1990 PUMS data files, and compares the assimilation trajectory of Chinese immigrants (excluding Hong Kong and Taiwanese origins) across the New York, San Francisco, and Los Angeles metropolitan areas. Based upon period of arrival and age in 1980 and 1990, measures of assimilation are compared across these three metropolitan areas, along with the role of internal migration in maintaining or decreasing assimilation differences. The analysis indicates that the progress of assimilation varies significantly over space, with spatial differences in measures of assimilation persisting over time, despite the role of internal migration. Reasons as to why this occurs are presented in the conclusion.

Notizen:   In conventional modeling of housing demand, consumers choose living arrangement, tenure, and housing on the basis of price, income, wealth, and tastes. However, it is both costly and onerous to alter one's housing conditions. It is argued therefore that consumers employ housing strategies to cope with labor market risks and expectations about their future: strategies that may differ from one demographic group to the next. In conventional modeling of housing demand, it is also well-known that selection bias can arise: that is, omitted variables that help account for one aspect of housing (say, tenure choice) also subsequently affect the nature of the demand function for other aspects of housing demand (say, the amount spent on housing by a renter household). One such variable is the consumer's wealth, a variable that is typically not available in household survey data. This paper argues that the most important variables that may give rise to selection bias are variables that also reflect the coping strategies employed by consumers. The paper estimates a model of housing choice using Canada-wide pooled samples from the 1980s and 1990s. In this paper, the prices of housing services and income prospects vary region by region. The paper shows how individuals and families in different housing markets across Canada respond, and how this evidences the use of coping strategies (from doubling up to substandard housing). The paper presents evidence to support the argument that selection bias is important in understanding how consumers cope.

Notizen:   Existing analyses of electricity deregulation have focused on situations where horizontal market power is present. This paper instead evaluates a market where a competitive outcome is more likely. Competitive market supply and demand curves for electricity have been simulated for a twenty-state region. These simulated supply and demand curves are used to predict short-run and long-run prices for electric power. Many consumers will see a drop in the portion of their electric bills accounted for by the current economic costs of supplying them with electricity. Adjustments to consumers’ bills for stranded cost recovery will be determined by legislators and regulators on a state-by-state and utility-by-utility basis. Because of excess capacity that currently exists in the industry, the decline in prices will be greater in the short run than in the long run.

Notizen:   When NAFTA was implemented in 1994, there was a general expectation that it would hurt U.S. retailers along the U.S.-Mexico border. This paper asks whether there was a significant change in the pattern of retail trade in border MSAs in the years surrounding NAFTA's implementation. Data from MSAs in the four border states are analyzed. After controlling for other potential influences on retail trade, there remained a statistically significant change in the pattern of retail trade between 1992 and 1997. The changes cannot be unquestionably attributed to NAFTA but do suggest that NAFTA had a negative influence on retail sales on the U.S. side of the border.

Notizen: Widespread agreement exists on the broad outlines of the concept of sustainable development for developing countries. This calls for a development model capable of meeting basic needs without depleting natural resources at a rate that robs future generations of their use. In this regard, citizen participation is also considered key to legitimise such policy choices. However, there is considerable disagreement over the substance and meaning of the major components of the concept and the relationship between them. This paper argues that positions in policy disputes over the sustainable development of the forest cluster in two distinct approaches: market-friendly initiatives and grassroots development. Since market economies prevail almost everywhere, the question that is posed concerns the conditions under which the grassroots development approach is included as a significant complement to market-friendly initiatives. This is a political question, requiring an examination of actors, interests and power resources. The paper thus applies a political economy framework to a paired comparison of Mexico, where grassroots development approaches (community forestry) had notable successes, and Chile, where market-friendly forest policy crowded out alternatives.

Notizen: : A renewed emphasis on source water protection and watershed management has resulted from recent amendments and initiatives under the Safe Drinking Water Act and the Clean Water Act. Knowledge of the impact of land use choices on source water quality is critical for efforts to properly manage activities within a watershed. This study evaluated qualitative relationships between land use and source water quality and the quantitative impact of season and rainfall events on water quality parameters. High levels of specific conductance tended to be associated with dense residential development, while organic carbon was elevated at several forested sites. Turbidity was generally higher in more urbanized areas. Source tracking indicators were detected in samples where land use types would predict their presence. Coliform levels were statistically different at the 95 percent confidence levels for winter versus summer conditions and dry versus wet weather conditions. Other water quality parameters that varied with season were organic carbon, turbidity, dissolved oxygen, and specific conductance. These results indicate that land use management can be effective for mitigating impacts to a water body; however, year- round, comprehensive data are necessary to thoroughly evaluate the water quality at a particular site.

Notizen: : The tailwater of Bridgewater Dam, below Lake James, North Carolina, is a designated trout stream. It has environmental attributes for a good cold water fishery with the exception of high suspended sediments. Muddy Creek, a tributary about 1.5 km downstream of the dam, is a major source of sediments. The Muddy Creek Watershed Restoration Initiative was established to develop and implement a sediment control plan. The Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework was applied to simulate soil erosion and sedimentation and to help determine appropriate action. The simulated sediment concentrations of the river were comparable to observed data from November 1994 to November 2001. For the base condition, the sediment load was 135,000 kg/d from surface erosion and 1,300,000 kg/d from bank erosion. Increasing the buffer strip from existing 50 to 80 percent to 100 percent of stream segments would only reduce surface erosion to 70,400 kg/d with little change in sediment concentrations. Eliminating riverbank erosion would reduce the sediment load from 920,000 to 87,700 kg/d. The bank stabilization project would not only lower suspended sediment concentrations for Muddy Creek, but also reduce the lake sediment accumulation in the downstream Lake Rhodhiss by approximately 13 percent.

Notizen: : The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program (WASP5) was used to model the transport and sediment/water interactions of metals under low flow, steady state conditions in Tenmile Creek, a mountain stream supplying drinking water to the City of Helena, Montana, impacted by numerous abandoned hard rock mines. The model was calibrated for base flow using data collected by USEPA and validated using data from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for higher flows. It was used to assess metals loadings and losses, exceedances of Montana State water quality standards, metals interactions in stream water and bed sediment, uncertainty in fate and transport processes and model parameters, and effectiveness of remedial alternatives that include leaving contaminated sediment in the stream. Results indicated that during base flow, adits and point sources contribute significant metals loadings to the stream, but that shallow ground water and bed sediment also contribute metals in some key locations. Losses from the water column occur in some areas, primarily due to adsorption and precipitation onto bed sediments. Some uncertainty exists in the metal partition coefficients associated with sediment, significance of precipitation reactions, and in the specific locations of unidentified sources and losses of metals. Standards exceedances are widespread throughout the stream, but the model showed that remediation of point sources and mine waste near water courses can help improve water quality. Model results also indicate, however, that alteration of the water supply scheme and increasing base flow will probably be required to meet all water quality standards.

Notizen: : The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) collected or compiled data on volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in samples of untreated ground water from 1,926 rural private wells during 1986 to 1999. At least one VOC was detected in 12 percent of samples from rural private wells. Individual VOCs were not commonly detected with the seven most frequently detected compounds found in only 1 to 5 percent of samples at or above a concentration of 0.2 microgram per liter (μg/l). An assessment level of 0.2 μg/l was selected so that comparisons of detection frequencies between VOCs could be made. The seven most frequently detected VOCs were: trichloromethane, methyl tert-butyl ether, tetrachloroethene, dichlorodifluoromethane, methylbenzene, 1,1,1-trichloroethane, and 1,2-dibromo-3-chloropropane. Solvents and trihalomethanes were the most frequently detected VOC groups in private wells. The distributions of detections of gasoline oxygenates and fumigants seemed to be related to the use patterns of compounds in these groups. Mixtures were a common mode of occurrence of VOCs with one-quarter of all samples with detections including two or more VOCs. The concentrations of most detected VOCs were relatively small and only 1.4 percent of samples had one or more VOC concentrations that exceeded a federally established drinking water standard or health criterion.

Notizen: : In areas of the Red River Valley that overlie permeable Paleozoic sediments, wetlands and salinization have developed where unregulated flowing wells discharge brackish water. Field data were collected to assess the fate of water and salt from a well 25 km northwest of Grand Forks. Drilled during the drought of the 1930s, discharge was used to replenish water in a small oxbow pond used by livestock. The unregulated well discharges about 56 m3/day, measured since 1993. This discharge exceeds ground water flow from the site, thereby forming a ground water mound with a maximum height of 1 m and a diameter of about 300 m. Most soil and underlying sediments near the well have a hydraulic conductivity of 0.3 m3/day. Flow net analysis suggests that less than 25 percent infiltrates, with the remaining water lost to surface flow and evapotranspiration (ET). Evapotranspiration and slow infiltration has led to increased salinization, with shallow soils exhibiting EC to 500 milliSiemens/m. The most pronounced soil salinization occurs along the margins of the oxbow pond and meander scars. Wetland vegetation with low diversity comprises three zones, with species associations similar to those of closed basin prairie potholes to the west.

Notizen: : In this study, remotely sensed data and geographic information system (GIS) tools were used to estimate storm runoff response for Simms Creek watershed in the Etonia basin in northeast Florida. Land cover information from digital orthophoto quarter quadrangles (DOQQ), and enhanced thematic mapper plus (ETM+) were analyzed for the years 1990, 1995, and 2000. The corresponding infiltration excess runoff response of the study area was estimated using the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Natural Resources Conservation Service Curve Number (NRCS-CN) method. A digital elevation model (DEM)/GIS technique was developed to predict stream response to runoff events based on the travel time from each grid cell to the watershed outlet. A comparison of predicted to observed stream response shows that the model predicts the total runoff volume with an efficiency of 0.98, the peak flow rate at an efficiency of 0.85, and the full direct runoff hydrograph with an average efficiency of 0.65. The DEM/GIS travel time model can be used to predict the runoff response of ungaged watersheds and is useful for predicting runoff hydrographs resulting from proposed large scale changes in the land use.

Notizen: : This study employs a simple nonlinear statistical approach to establish nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment concentration and unit area load thresholds to aid in the evaluation of aquatic biological health of watersheds within the state of Pennsylvania. Flow, nitrogen and phosphorus species, sediment, basin area, land cover, and biological assessment data were assembled for 29 Pennsylvania watersheds. For each watershed, rating curves depicting flow versus load relationships were developed using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (USEPA's) storage and retrieval database (STORET) flow and concentration data, then applied to daily flow data obtained from U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) daily flow gauging stations to estimate daily load between 1989 and 1999. The load estimates and concentration data were then sorted into six sets of data: mean annual unit area nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment loads; and average nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment concentrations. Results of Mann-Whitney tests conducted on each of the six datasets indicate that there is a statistically significant difference between the concentrations and unit area loads of nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment in impaired and unimpaired watersheds. Concentration thresholds, calculated as the midpoint between the impaired and unimpaired watersheds’ 95 percent confidence interval for the median, were estimated to be 2.01 mg/L, 0.07 mg/L, and 197.27 mg/L for nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment, respectively. Annual unit area load thresholds were estimated to be equal to 8.64 kg/ha, 0.30 kg/ha, and 785.29 kg/ha, respectively, for nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment species.

Notizen: : Dynamic linear models (DLM) and seasonal trend decomposition (STL) using local regression, or LOESS, were used to analyze the 50-year time series of suspended sediment concentrations for the Yadkin River, measured at the U.S. Geological Survey station at Yadkin College, North Carolina. A DLM with constant trend, seasonality, and a log10 streamflow regressor provided the best model to predict monthly mean log10 suspended sediment concentrations, based on the forecast log likelihood. Using DLM, there was evidence (odds approximately 69:1) that the log10 streamflow versus log10 suspended sediment concentration relationship has changed, with an approximate 20 percent increase in the log10 streamflow coefficient over the period 1981 to 1996. However, sediment concentrations in the Yadkin River have decreased during the decade of the 1990s, which has been accompanied by a concomitant increase in streamflow variability. Although STL has been shown to be a versatile trend analysis technique, DLM is shown to be more suitable for discovery and inference of structural changes (trends) in the model coefficient describing the relationship between flow and sediment concentration.

Notizen: : Seventy to eighty percent of the water flowing in rivers in the United States originates as precipitation in forests. This project developed a synoptic picture of the patterns in water chemistry for over 300 streams in small, forested watersheds across the United States. Nitrate (NO3−) concentrations averaged 0.31 mg N/L, with some streams averaging ten times this level. Nitrate concentrations tended to be higher in the northeastern United States in watersheds dominated by hardwood forests (especially hardwoods other than oaks) and in recently harvested watersheds. Concentrations of dissolved organic N (mean 0.32 mg N/L) were similar to those of NO3∼, whereas ammonium (NH4+) concentrations were much lower (mean 0.05 mg N/L). Nitrate dominated the N loads of streams draining hardwood forests, whereas dissolved organic N dominated the streams in coniferous forests. Concentrations of inorganic phosphate were typically much lower (mean 12 mg P/L) than dissolved organic phosphate (mean 84 mg P/L). The frequencies of chemical concentrations in streams in small, forested watersheds showed more streams with higher NO3− concentrations than the streams used in national monitoring programs of larger, mostly forested watersheds. At a local scale, no trend in nitrate concentration with stream order or basin size was consistent across studies.

Notizen: : Drawing an analogy between the popular Soil Conservation Service curve number (SCS-CN) method based infiltration and metal sorption processes, a new partitioning curve number (PCN) approach is suggested for partitioning of heavy metals into dissolved and particulate bound forms in urban snowmelt, rainfall/runoff, and river flow environments. The parameters, the potential maximum desorption, ψ, and the PCN analogous to the SCS-CN parameters S and CN, respectively, are introduced. Under the condition of snowmelt, PCN (or ψ) is found to generally rely on temperature, relative humidity, pH, and chloride content; during a rainstorm, ψ is found to depend on the alkalinity and the pH of the rainwater; and in the river flow situation, PCN is found to generally depend on the temperature, pH, and chloride content. The advantage of using PCN instead of the widely used partitioning parameter, Kd, is found to lie in the PCN's efficacy to distinguish the adsorption (or sorption) behavior of metals in the above snowmelt, rainfall/runoff, and river flow situations, analogous to the hydrological behavior of watersheds.

Notizen: : Pesticide runoff from dormant sprayed orchards is a major water quality problem in California's Central Valley. During the past several years, diazinon levels in the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers have exceeded water quality criteria for aquatic organisms. Orchard water management, via post-application irrigation, and infiltration enhancement, through the use of a vegetative ground cover, are management practices that are believed to reduce pesticide loading to surface waters. Field experiments were conducted in Davis, California, to measure the effectiveness of these management practices in reducing the toxicity of storm water runoff. Treatments using a vegetative ground cover significantly reduced peak concentrations and cumulative pesticide mass in runoff for first flush experiments compared with bare soil treatments. Post-application irrigation was found to be an effective means of reducing peak concentrations and cumulative mass in runoff from bare soil treatments, but showed no significant effect on vegetated treatments.

Notizen: : Using a regional climate model (RegCM2.5), the potential impacts on the climate of California of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations were explored from the perspective of the state's 10 hydrologic regions. Relative to preindustrial CO2 conditions (280 ppm), doubled preindustrial CO2 conditions (560 ppm) produced increased temperatures of up to 4°C on an annual average basis and of up to 5°C on a monthly basis. Temperature increases were greatest in the central and northern regions. On a monthly basis, the temperature response was greatest in February, March, and May for nearly all regions. Snow accumulation was significantly decreased in all months and regions, with the greatest reduction occurring in the Sacramento River region. Precipitation results indicate drier winters for all regions, with a large reduction in precipitation from December to April and a smaller decrease from May to November. The result is a wet season that is slightly reduced in length. Findings suggest that the total amount of water in the state will decrease, water needs will increase, and the timing of water availability will be greatly perturbed.

Notizen: : An analysis is undertaken to determine the conditions under which membrane desalination becomes an economically preferable alternative for treating brackish water supplies. While membrane desalination is more expensive than conventional treatment, it affords benefits beyond those of conventional processes by reducing salinity related damages. An important and largely unexplored issue regards how the added cost of desalination compares to its benefits in terms of damages avoided. A comparative analysis is undertaken over a range of scenarios with the objective of identifying the treatment technology the leads to the lowest “total economic cost,” a term described by the sum of costs related to supply, treatment, and salinity related damages. Using data from a representative region, desalination yields the lowest total economic cost for source waters that exceed “threshold” salinity concentrations below 1,000 mg/l total dissolved solids (TDS). In instances where standard conventional processes require upgrades to maintain compliance with pending regulations (e.g., disinfection byproducts), the cost gap between membrane and conventional processes is reduced and the threshold concentration lowered. Given the inherent uncertainty in both treatment cost and damage estimates, a sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine which factors have the greatest impact on the treatment decision. Results suggest that considering salinity related damages when selecting a treatment technology makes membrane desalination of brackish waters economically attractive under a wider range of circumstances.

Notizen: : Traditional approaches to establishing critical water quality conditions, based on statistical analysis of low flow conditions and expressed as a recurrence interval for low flow conditions (e.g., 7Q10), may be inappropriate for drier watersheds. The use of 7Q10 as a standard design flow assumes year-round flow, but in these watersheds, 7Q10 is zero or very small. In addition, the increasing use of multiple year dynamic water quality models at daily time steps can supercede the use of steady state approaches. Many of these watersheds are also under increasing urbanization pressure, which accentuates the flashiness of runoff and the episodic nature of critical water quality conditions. To illustrate, the conditions in the Santa Clara River, California, are considered. A statistical analysis indicates that higher inorganic nitrogen concentrations correlate strongly with low flow. However, peaks in concentrations can occur during the first storms, particularly where nonpoint source contribution is significant. Critical conditions can thus occur at different flow regimes depending on the relative magnitude of flow and pollutant contributions from various sources. The use of steady state models for these dry semi-urbanized watersheds based on 7Q10 flows is thus unlikely to accurately simulate the potential for exceeding water quality objectives. Dynamic simulation of water quality is necessary, and as the recent intense storm event sampling data indicate, the models should be formulated to consider even smaller time steps. This places increasing demand on computational resources and datasets to accurately calibrate the models at this temporal resolution.

Notizen: : The size, scale, and number of subwatersheds can affect a watershed modeling process and subsequent results. The objective of this study was to determine the appropriate level of subwatershed division for simulating flow, sediment, and nutrients over 30 years for four Iowa watersheds ranging in size from 2,000 to 18,000 km2 with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The results of the analysis indicated that variation in the total number of subwatersheds had very little effect on streamflow. However, the opposite result was found for sediment, nitrate, and inorganic P; the optimal threshold subwatershed sizes, relative to the total drainage area for each watershed, required to adequately predict these three indicators were found to be around 3, 2, and 5 percent, respectively. Decreasing the size of the subwatersheds below these threshold levels does not significantly affect the predicted levels of these environmental indicators. These threshold subwatershed sizes can be used to optimize input data preparation requirements for SWAT analyses of other watersheds, especially those within a similar size range. The fact that different thresholds emerged for the different indicators also indicates the need for SWAT users to assess which indicators should have the highest priority in their analyses.

Notizen: : A study of the influence of climate variability on streamflow in the southeastern United States is presented. Using a methodology previously applied to watersheds in Australia and the United States, a long range streamflow forecast (0 to 9 months in advance) is developed. Persistence (i.e., the previous season's streamflow) and climate predictors of the previous season are used to forecast the following season's (winter and spring) streamflow of the Suwannee River located in northern Florida. The winter and spring streamflow is historically the most likely to have severe flood events due to large scale cyclonic (frontal) storms. Results of the analysis indicated that a strong El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal exists at various lead times to the winter and spring streamflow of the Suwannee River. These results are based on the high correlation values of two commonly used measurements of ENSO strength, the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) and Sea Surface Temperature Range 1. Using the relationships developed between climate and streamflow, a continuous exceedance probability forecast was developed for two Suwannee River stations. The forecast system provided an improved forecast for ENSO years. The ability to predict above normal (flood) or below normal (drought) years can provide communities the necessary lead time to protect life, property, sensitive wetlands, and endangered and threatened species.

Notizen: : Using a case study of the Yakima River Valley in Washington State, this paper shows that relatively simple tools can be used to forecast the impact of the El Niño phenomenon on water supplies to irrigated agriculture, that this information could be used to estimate the significantly shifted probability distribution of water shortages in irrigated agriculture during El Niño episodes, and that these shifted probabilities can be used to estimate the value of exchanges of water between crops to relieve some of the adverse consequences of such shortages under western water law. Further, recently devised water-trading tools, while not completely free under western water law to respond to forecasted El Niño episodes (ocean circulation patterns), are currently being employed during declared drought to reduce the devastating effects of water shortages in junior water districts on high valued perennial crops. Additional institutional flexibility is needed to take full advantage of climate forecasting, but even current tools clearly could prove useful in controlling the effects of climate variability in irrigated agriculture. Analysis shows the significant benefit of temporarily transferring or renting water rights from low-value to high-value crops, based on El Niño forecasts.

Notizen: : Water is potentially one of the most affected resources as climate changes. Though knowledge and understanding has steadily evolved about the nature and extent of many of the physical effects of possible climate change on water resources, much less is known about the economic responses and impacts that may emerge. Methods and results are presented that examine and quantify many of the important economic consequences of possible climate change on U.S. water resources. At the core of the assessment is the simulation of multiple climate change scenarios in economic models of four watersheds. These Water Allocation and Impact Models (Water-AIM) simulate the effects of modeled runoff changes under various climate change scenarios on the spatial and temporal dimensions of water use, supply, and storage and on the magnitude and distribution of economic consequences. One of the key aspects and contributions of this approach is the capability of capturing economic response and adaptation behavior of water users to changes in water scarcity. By reflecting changes in the relative scarcity (and value) of water, users respond by changing their patterns of water use, intertemporal storage in reservoirs, and changes in the pricing of water. The estimates of economic welfare change that emerge from the Water-AIM models are considered lower-bound estimates owing to the conservative nature of the model formulation and key assumptions. The results from the Water-AIM models form the basis for extrapolating impacts to the national level. Differences in the impacts across the regional models are carried through to the national assessment by matching the modeled basins with basins with similar geographical, climatic, and water use characteristics that have not been modeled and by using hydro-logic data across all U.S. water resources regions. The results from the national analysis show that impacts are borne to a great extent by nonconsumptive users that depend on river flows, which rise and fall with precipitation, and by agricultural users, primarily in the western United States, that use a large share of available water in relatively low-valued uses. Water used for municipal and industrial purposes is largely spared from reduced availability because of its relatively high marginal value. In some cases water quality concerns rise, and additional investments may be required to continue to meet established guidelines.

Notizen: : Flood control operations are generally complex in nature, as they are often associated with a large quantity of uncertain factors in combination of noncommensurable criteria. It has been found that the use of fuzzy set theory coupled with multicriterion decision making (MCDM) methods is very promising. In this paper, a multicriterion fuzzy recognition model is established for flood control operations. A subjective preference and iterative weights method is proposed for weight assessment. First, an initial solution of criteria weights, which is directly analyzed from the selected alternatives, is obtained by using the proposed fuzzy recognition model. Then, according to their knowledge related to real time flood operations, operators may modify the initial weights if necessary. When the relative membership grades of alternatives belonging to all rankings are fixed, a defuzzification equation is used to calculate the rank feature value vector. Based on the rank feature value vector, one can evaluate the alternative set. Two flood operation cases are provided to illustrate the application of the proposed model. With the incorporation of the operator's knowledge related to flood operations, the proposed model is flexible in giving weights and realizes more practical flood control operations.

Notizen: : The magnitudes and patterns of sediment resuspension are assessed in Cannonsville Reservoir, New York, to quantify and characterize this internal source of sediment. The assessment is based on analyses of sediment trap collections from 10 sites over the spring to fall interval of two years. Temporal and spatial patterns in sediment deposition are demonstrated to be driven by resuspension/redeposition processes. Sediment that had been resuspended and redeposited represented 80 to 96 percent, on average, of the depositing solids collected along the main axis of the lake. About 90 percent of the redeposited sediment was inorganic. Increased resuspension caused by drawdown of the reservoir surface and fall turnover resulted in 10 to 50-fold increases in deposition rates compared to levels observed when the reservoir was full and strongly thermally stratified. Elevated levels of redeposition from resuspension in the reservoir have been driven by both higher water column concentrations of suspended solids and settling velocities. Recurring longitudinal and lateral gradients in resuspension are delineated, establishing that resuspended solids are transported from the riverine to the lacustrine zone and from near-shore to pelagic areas. Resuspension is demonstrated to cause increases in inanimate particle (tripton) concentrations. Higher tripton levels have been observed in years with greater drawdown. Water quality impacts of the resuspension phenomenon are considered.

Notizen: : The discrete heterogeneity of fracture distribution and hydraulic discontinuity are the primary difficulties in the modeling of flow in fractured media. The equivalent porous medium (EPM) approach, however, which has been frequently applied to simulate flow in fractured media due to its ease of use, ignores this. This practice results in some severe limitations such as hydraulic head averaging and an inability to handle preferred fluid pathways. The PMF package (a Preprocessor to MODFLOW for Fractured media) was developed employing percolation theory to address these limitations and to utilize the simplicity of the EPM approach at the same time. This preprocessor was applied to a fractured rock aquifer around Cranberry Lake in northern New Jersey. The calibration using hydraulic head observations, validation using water balance, and evaluation using residuals show that the model generated by the PMF package can provide a superior simulation of ground water flow to the EPM approach.

Notizen: : This study investigates the degree of economic inefficiency of the current institutional arrangements for surface and ground water management in meeting urban water demand in the Jakarta region. A numerical model of integrated surface and ground water management is developed using GAMS (General Algebraic Modelling System) software. The model maximizes the net present value of social benefits from piped water and ground water consumption across all users over time from 1999 to 2025. Four policy scenarios are examined: the status quo, the social planner's solution, and two ground water pumping quota scenarios: an aggregate ground water pumping quota and a partial quota applied to commercial and industrial users. Three variations in each policy scenario are considered: investment in water infrastructure of the Jakarta water enterprise (PAM Jaya), water demand growth, and discount rates. The status quo, depending on the investment option, the growth of water demand, and the discount rate, results in a 7.4 to 47.8 percent loss in economic efficiency relative to the social planner's solution. The partial quota is the most feasible, applicable, and manageable scenario. The optimal investment option could increase the volume of piped water supply and reduce the cost of water production. The volume of water delivery could increase by up to 156 percent, but it implies only a 35 percent increase in the surface raw water demands above the current level. However, it does not significantly reduce cumulative ground water extraction over the time period considered.

Notizen: : Historical flow records are used to estimate the regulatory low flows that serve a key function in setting discharge permit limits through the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System, which provides a nationwide mechanism for protecting water quality. Use of historical records creates an implicit connection between water quality protection and climate variability. The longer the record, the more likely the low flow estimate will be based on a broad set of climate conditions, and thus provides adequate water quality protection in the future. Unfortunately, a long record often is not available at a specific location. This analysis examines the connection between climate variability and the variability of biologically based and hydrologically based low flow estimates at 176 sites from the Hydro-Climatic Data Network, a collection of stream gages identified by the USGS as relatively free of anthropogenic influences. Results show that a record of 10 to 20 years is necessary for satisfactory estimates of regulatory low flows. Although it is possible to estimate a biologically based low flow from a record of less than 10 years, these estimates are highly uncertain and incorporate a bias that undermines water quality protection.