ALBERT

Description: The vision document provides an overview of the Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) long-term strategic plan to enhance scientific understanding of global climate change.This document is a companion to the comprehensive Strategic Plan for the Climate Change Science Program. The report responds to the Presidents direction that climate change research activities be accelerated to provide the best possible scientific information to support public discussion and decisionmaking on climate-related issues.The plan also responds to Section 104 of the Global Change Research Act of 1990, which mandates the development and periodic updating of a long-term national global change research plan coordinated through the National Science and Technology Council.This is the first comprehensive update of a strategic plan for U.S. global change and climate change research since the origal plan for the U.S. Global Change Research Program was adopted at the inception of the program in 1989.

Description: Observing system simulation experiments (OSSE's) provide an effective means to evaluate the potential impact of a proposed observing system, as well as to determine tradeoffs in their design, and to evaluate data assimilation methodology. Great care must be taken to ensure realism of the OSSE's, and in the interpretation of OSSE results. All of the OSSE's that have been conducted to date have demonstrated tremendous potential for space-based wind profile data to improve atmospheric analyses, forecasts, and research. This has been true for differing data assimilation systems, analysis methodology, and model resolutions. OSSE's clearly show much greater potential for observations of the complete wind profile than for single-level wind data or observations of the boundary layer alone.

Description: Despite the obvious notion that the presence of hail or graupel is a good indication of convection, the model results show this does not provide an objective benchmark partly due to the unrealistic presence of small amounts of hail or graupel throughout the anvil in the model but mainly because of the significant amounts of hail or graupel, especially in the tropical TOGA COARE simulation, in the transition zone. Without use of a "transition" category, it is open to debate as how this region should best be defined, as stratiform or as convective. So, the presence of significant hail or graupel contents in this zone significantly degrades its use an objective benchmark for convection. The separation algorithm comparison was done in the context of a cloud-resolving model. These models are widely used and serve a variety of purposes especially with regard to retrieving information that cannot be directly measured by providing synthetic data sets that are consistent and complete. Separation algorithms are regularly applied in these models. However, as with any modeling system, these types 'of models are constantly being improved to overcome any known deficiencies and make them more accurate representations of observed systems. The presence of hail and graupel in the anvil and the bias towards heavy rainfall rates are two such examples of areas that need improvement. Since, both of these can effect the perceived performance of the separation algorithms, the Lang et al. (2003) study did not want to overstate the relative performance of any specific algorithms.

Description: In this study, we investigate the seasonal variations in surface rainfall and associated large-scale processes in the tropical eastern Atlantic and West African region. The 5-yr (1998-2002) high-quality TRMM rainfall, sea surface temperature (SST), water vapor and cloud liquid water observations are applied along with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis wind components and a 3-yr (2000-2002) Quickscat satellite-observed surface wind product. Major mean rainfall over West Africa tends to be concentrated in two regions and is observed in two different seasons, manifesting an abrupt shift of the mean rainfall zone during June-July. (i) Near the Gulf of Guinea (about 5 degN), intense convection and rainfall are seen during April-June and roughly follow the seasonality of SST in the tropical eastern Atlantic. (ii) Along the latitudes of about 10 deg. N over the interior West African continent, a second intense rain belt begins to develop from July and remains there during the later summer season. This belt co-exists with a northwardmoved African Easterly Jet (AEJ) and its accompanying horizonal and vertical shear zones, the appearance and intensification of an upper tropospheric Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ), and a strong low-level westerly flow. Westward-propagating wave signals [ i e . , African easterly waves (AEWs)] dominate the synoptic-scale variability during July-September, in contrast to the evident eastward-propagating wave signals during May- June. The abrupt shift of mean rainfall zone thus turns out to be a combination of two different physical processes: (i) Evident seasonal cycles in the tropical eastern Atlantic ocean which modulate convection and rainfall in the Gulf of Guinea by means of SST thermal forcing and SST-related meridional gradient; (ii) The interaction among the AEJ, TEJ, low-level westerly flow, moist convection and AEWs during July-September which modulates rainfall variability in the interior West Africa, primarily within the ITCZ rain band. Evident seasonality in synoptic-scale wave signals is shown to be a good evidence for this seasonal evolution.

Description: Summer tropical synoptic-scale waves over West Africa are quantified by the 850 mb meridional wind component from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis project. Their relationships with surface precipitation patterns are further explored by applying the data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite in combination with other satellite observations during 1998-2002. Evident wavelet spectral power peaks are seen within a period of 2.5 - 6 days in both meridional wind and precipitation. The most intense wave signals in meridional wind are concentrated along 15 deg N- 25 deg N. Wave signals in precipitation and corresponding wavelet cross-spectral signals between these two variables, however, are primarily located at 5 deg N- 15 deg N, the latitudes of major summer rain events. There is a tendency for the perturbations in meridional wind component to lag (lead) precipitation signals south (north) of 15 deg N. In some cases, either an in-phase or out-of-phase relationship can even be found between these two variables, suggesting a latitude-dependent horizontal structure for these waves and probably implying two distinct wave-convective coupling mechanisms. Moreover, the lagging relationship (and/or the out-of-phase tendency) is only observed south of 15 deg N during July-September, indicating a strong seasonal preference. This phase relationship is generally consistent with the horizontal wave structures from a composite analysis.

Description: The onset of the southeast Asian monsoon during 1997 and 1998 was simulated with a coupled mesoscale atmospheric model (MM5) and a detailed land surface model. The rainfall results from the simulations were compared with observed satellite data fiom the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) and GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project). The simulation with the land surface model captured basic signatures of the monsoon onset processes and associated rainfall statistics. The sensitivity tests indicated that land surface processes had a greater impact on the simulated rainfall results than that of a small sea surface temperature change during the onset period. In both the 1997 and 1998 cases, the simulations were significantly improved by including the land surface processes. The results indicated that land surface processes played an important role in modifying the low-level wind field over two major branches of the circulation; the southwest low-level flow over the Indo- China peninsula and the northern cold front intrusion from southern China. The surface sensible and latent heat exchange between the land and atmosphere modified the lowlevel temperature distribution and gradient, and therefore the low-level. The more realistic forcing of the sensible and latent heat from the detailed land surface model improved the monsoon rainfall and associated wind simulation.

Description: Ideal cloud-resolving models contain little-accumulative errors. When their domain is so large that synoptic large-scale circulations are accommodated, they can be used for the simulation of the interaction between convective clouds and the large-scale circulations. This paper sets up a framework for the models, using moist entropy as a prognostic variable and employing conservative numerical schemes. The models possess no accumulative errors of thermodynamic variables when they comply with a discrete constraint on entropy conservation and sound waves. Alternatively speaking, the discrete constraint is related to the correct representation of the large-scale convergence and advection of moist entropy. Since air density is involved in entropy conservation and sound waves, the challenge is how to compute sound waves efficiently under the constraint. To address the challenge, a compensation method is introduced on the basis of a reference isothermal atmosphere whose governing equations are solved analytically. Stability analysis and numerical experiments show that the method allows the models to integrate efficiently with a large time step.

Description: The goals of this research are: 1) To validate TIMED Doppler Interferometer (TIDI) winds using ground-based MF and meteor winds; and 2) To examine short-term (i. e., day-to-day and week-to-week) variability of the diurnal tide. This objective was to have originally been met using comparisons of short-term diurnal tidal determinations from ground-based (GB) winds with planetary-scale diurnal nonmigrating tidal definitions from TIDI winds.

Description: The goal of this paper is to present an overview of the Convection and Moisture Experiment including CAMEX-3 and CAMEX-4 field campaigns including field operations, aircraft platforms and instrumentation, aircraft missions, and data acquired during 1998 and 2001 field phases. A total of eight tropical storms and hurricanes were investigated during the CAMEX field campaigns including Bonnie, Danielle, Earl, and Georges during 1998 and Chantal, Erin, Gabrielle, and Humberto during 2001. Most of these storms were sampled with aircraft over the open ocean, but Bonnie (1998), Georges (1998), and Gabrielle (2001) also provided opportunities to monitor landfalling impacts. A few of the storms were sampled on multiple occasions during a course of several days. Most notably of these was Hurricane Humberto, which was sampled on three consecutive days during a cycle of both increasing and decreasing intensity change. Information collected for each of the eight CAMEX tropical storms as well the TRMM validation activities have been archived and are readily available for distribution at the CAMEX web site.

Description: Over the past decade, the Goddard Mesoscale Modeling and Dynamics Group has used a popular regional scale model, MM5, to study precipitation processes. Our group is making contributions to the MM5 by incorporating the following physical and numerical packages: improved Goddard cloud processes, a land processes model (Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange - PLACE), efficient but sophisticated radiative processes, conservation of hydrometeor mass (water budget), four-dimensional data assimilation for rainfall, and better computational methods for trace gas transport. At NASA Goddard, the MM5 has been used to study: (1) the impact of initial conditions, assimilation of satellite-derived rainfall, and cumulus parameterizations on rapidly intensifying oceanic cyclones, hurricanes and typhoons, (2) the dynamic and thermodynamic processes associated with the development of narrow cold frontal rainbands, (3) regional climate and water cycles, (4) the impact of vertical transport by clouds and lightning on trace gas distributiodproduction associated with South and North American mesoscale convective systems, (5) the development of a westerly wind burst (WWB) that occurred during the TOGA COARE and the diurnal variation of precipitation in the tropics, (6) a Florida sea breeze convective event and a Mid-US flood event using a sophisticated land surface model, (7) the influence of soil heterogeneity on land surface energy balance in the southwest GCIP region, (8) explicit simulations (with 1.33 to 4 km horizontal resolution) of hurricanes Bob (1991) and Bonnie (1998), (9) a heavy precipitation event over Taiwan, and (10) to make real time forecasts for a major NASA field program. In this paper, the modifications and simulated cases will be described and discussed.

Description: The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center in Huntsville, Alabama was created to accelerate the infusion of NASA earth science observations, data assimilation and modeling research into NWS forecast operations and decision-making. The principal focus of experimental products is on the regional scale with an emphasis on forecast improvements on a time scale of 0-24 hours. The SPoRT Center research is aligned with the regional prediction objectives of the US Weather Research Program dealing with 0-1 day forecast issues ranging from convective initiation to 24-hr quantitative precipitation forecasting. The SPoRT Center, together with its other interagency partners, universities, and the NASA/NOAA Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation, provides a means and a process to effectively transition NASA Earth Science Enterprise observations and technology to National Weather Service operations and decision makers at both the global/national and regional scales. This paper describes the process for the transition of experimental products into forecast operations, current products undergoing assessment by forecasters, and plans for the future.

Description: The objective of this study was to conduct measurements of chemical kinetics parameters for reactions of importance in the stratosphere and upper troposphere, and to study the interaction of trace gases with ice surfaces in order to elucidate the mechanism of heterogeneous chlorine activation processes, using both a theoretical and an experimental approach. The measurements were carried out under temperature and pressure conditions covering those applicable to the stratosphere and upper troposphere. The main experimental technique employed was turbulent flow-chemical ionization mass spectrometry, which is particularly well suited for investigations of radical-radical reactions.

Description: The objective of this study is to conduct measurements of chemical kinetics parameters for heterogeneous reactions of importance in the stratosphere and the troposphere. It involves the elucidation of the mechanism of the interaction of HC1 vapor with ice surfaces, which is the first step in the heterogeneous chlorine activation processes, as well as the investigation of the atmospheric oxidation mechanism of soot particles emitted by biomass and fossil fuels. The techniques being employed include turbulent flow- chemical ionization mass spectrometry and optical ellipsometry, among others. The next section summarizes our research activities during the first year of the project, and the section that follows consists of the statement of work for the second year.

Description: The project focused on ice-ocean model development and in particular on the assimilation of ice motion data and ice concentration data into both regional and global models. Many of the resulting publications below deal with improvements made in the physics treated by the model and the procedures for assimilating data. Several papers examine how the ability of the model to simulate the past behavior of the ice cover, especially to represent the ice thickness and ice deformation, is improved by data assimilation. A second aspect of the work involved interpretation of modeled behavior. Resulting papers treat the decline of arctic ice thickness over the last thirty years, and how that decline was caused by a slight warming of the near-surface atmosphere, and also how large variation in ice thickness are due to changes in wind patterns associated with a well- known oscillation of the atmospheric circulation. The research resulted in over 20 published papers on these topics.

Description: NASA's Aura satellite is scheduled to launch in the second quarter of 2004 into a polar orbit. The Aura mission is designed to collect data to address three high priority environmental science questions: (1) Is the ozone layer recovering as expected? (2) What are the sources and processes that control tropospheric pollutants? And (3) what is the quantitative impact of constituents on climate change? Aura will answer these questions by globally measuring a comprehensive set of trace gases and aerosols in the troposphere and stratosphere. Aura data will also have applications for monitoring and predicting climate and air quality parameters. Aura s observations will continue the TOMS ozone trend record and provide an assessment as to whether the Montreal Protocol is achieving its objective. Aura will measure gases and aerosols in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere that contribute to climate forcing. These data will be of sufficient coverage, vertical resolution, and accuracy to help constrain climate models. In addition, Aura observations of tropospheric ozone and its precursors will have regional as well as intercontinental coverage, which could improve emission inventories. Near real time data will tested for local air quality forecasts in collaboration with the US's Environmental Protection UV-B forecasts from Aura ozone and cloud cover data. An overview of Aura s instruments, data products, validation, and examples of data applications will be presented.

Description: The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission will consist of a constellation of rain-measuring satellites, the main member of which (the core satellite) will serve as the measurement reference to the other members of the constellation. The core satellite is being developed jointly by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the newly-named Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA -- previously NASDA) along with its government partner, the Communications Research Laboratory (CRL). The GPM mission was proposed as a follow-up mission to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) by both NASA and NASDA based on the unparalleled scientific success of TRMM, and has recently been joined by the European Space Agency (ESA) via its formulation of the European GPM mission (i.e., EGPM). GPM is an ambitious mission designed to produce accurate and frequent global observations of precipitation (both rain and snow) made possible by replacing the TRMM satellite with the new core satellite carrying an advanced radar-radiometer system, and serving as the centerpiece for the constellation of some eight (8) additional satellites being provided through international cooperation. The core satellite is to be flown up to high latitudes (inclined some 65-70 degrees), and will carry a Ku/Ka-band, nadir-scanning, dual-frequency precipitation radar (DPR) that is being developed by JAXA and CRL, along with a large aperture, extended frequency-range, conically-scanning passive microwave radiometer being developed by NASA and its industrial partners. Each constellation satellite will also carry some type of multi-channel passive microwave radiometer (as well as a multi-beam Ka-band radar in the case of EGPM) whose rain estimates will be calibrated and referenced to those made by the core satellite, producing for the first time fully-global, continuous, and bias-free precipitation datasets. GPM data will be delivered in near-realtime, taking a major step toward the operational use of precipitation information for model initialization and data assimilation in a number of application areas such as hazardous weather forecasting, flood warning, fresh water resource assessment, and crop growth prediction. In addition, GPM data will complement the now-existing global temperature record, allowing for improved assessments of climate change, particularly those processes in which the global water cycle both forces and responds to climatic drifts in global temperature conditions. A foremost element of this international constellation mission is a parallel international ground validation (GV) network. This GV network is needed to determine uncertainties in the rain retrievals, critical for application of the retrieval information in weather and hydrometeorological modeling and climate diagnostics, as well as assurances that the satellite retrievals of surface rainfall are consistent with those actually measured at the surface. The key aspects of this network is that it must be worldwide and created through the GPM partnership process. Therefore the network will consist of a confederation of government agencies, academic organizations, private institutions, and individual scientists from a collection of nations who have initiated the process by gathering in Abingdon to develop the fundamentals of the international GPM GV research programme. Therefore in keeping with our responsibilities as the front-runners of the programme, the main objectives of this workshop are: (1) to present and share opinions on interests, perspectives, and concerns about GPM GV research; (2) to examine the conceptual and/or planned GPM GV site templates from NASA, NASDA, ESA, and other partners; (3) to define the main scientific objectives of the international GPM GV research programme; (4) to formulate a preliminary set of international GPM GV science and measurement requirements; and (5) to convene a Steering Committee to aid the organization of the GPM GV program, to document its science implementation plans, and to aid planning for follow-up GPM GV meetings.

Description: The Earth Observing System (EOS) is a space-based observing system comprised of a series of satellite sensors by which scientists can monitor the Earth, a Data and Information System (EOSDIS) enabling researchers worldwide to access the satellite data, and an interdisciplinary science research program to interpret the satellite data. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), developed as part of the Earth Observing System (EOS) and launched on Terra in December 1999 and Aqua in May 2002, is designed to meet the scientific needs for satellite remote sensing of clouds, aerosols, water vapor, and land and ocean surface properties. This sensor and multi-platform observing system is especially well suited to observing detailed interdisciplinary components of the Earth s surface and atmosphere in and around urban environments, including aerosol optical properties, cloud optical and microphysical properties of both liquid water and ice clouds, land surface reflectance, fire occurrence, and many other properties that influence the urban environment and are influenced by them. In this presentation I will summarize the current capabilities of MODIS and other EOS sensors currently in orbit to study human-induced climate variations.

Description: Over the past twenty years, rainfall retrieval algorithms have been developed to retrieve rainfall and vertical hydrometeor structures from passive microwave observations by making use of the fact that weighting functions for various frequencies peak at different levels within a rainy atmosphere. GPROF is one of two TMI rainfall algorithms. It is physically based retrieval that finds the vertical hydrometeor profile that best fits the brightness temperatures in the available passive radiometer channels. Matching is achieved using a library of hydrometeor profiles generated by cloud-resolving models (CRMs). The hydrometeor profiles have a corresponding surface precipitation rate. The algorithm retrieves the hydrometeor profiles and associated surface rainfall using a Bayesian approach that gives the estimated expected values. The ability of CRMs to produce cloud structures that are reliable and representative of observed storms is crucial for the success of GPROF. The cloud mycrophysics are one of the keys to achieving this. In addition, CRMs have been a very useful tool for GPM-algorithm developers through Cloud-Radiation Simulations (CRS), one of the nine GPM disciplinary research themes. This paper will discuss how to generate consistent and comprehensive 4D cloud datasets from an improved (i.e., in regard to bulk and multi-moment microphysics) CRM for TRMM and GPM rainfall retrieval algorithm developers. These cloud datasets include CRM-simulated clouds and cloud systems from different geographic locations in the tropics and midlatitudes. By linking the CRM with a passive microwave radiative-transfer model and using satellite and airborne data, the performance of the "cloud physics" can be assessed and in turn modified and improved. This paper will also address how to assess and improve the performance of various latent and diabatic heating algorithms and develop an algorithm to retrieve the vertical structure of apparent moistening (Q2). Considering that the GPM will produce high (temporal and spatial) resolution heating and rainfall data, these algorithms will be used to obtain the temporal and spatial distributions of surface rainfall and the associated vertical heating and moistening profiles throughout the subtropical and midlatitudes.

Description: The GPM mission is currently planned for start in the late 2007 - early 2008 time frame. Its main scientific goal is to help answer pressing scientific problems arising within the context of global and regional water cycling. These problems cut across a hierarchy of scales and include climate-water cycle interactions, techniques for improving weather and climate predictions, and better methods for combining observed precipitation with hydrometeorological prediction models for applications to hazardous flood-producing storms, seasonal flood draught conditions, and fresh water resource assessments. The GPM mission will expand the scope of precipitation measurement through the use of a constellation of some 9 satellites, one of which will be an advanced TRMM-like core satellite carrying a dual-frequency Ku-Ka band precipitation radar and an advanced, multifrequency passive microwave radiometer with vertical-horizontal polarization discrimination. The other constellation members will include new dedicated satellites and co-existing operational/research satellites carrying similar (but not identical) passive microwave radiometers. The goal of the constellation is to achieve approximately 3-hour sampling at any spot on the globe -- continuously. The constellation's orbit architecture will consist of a mix of sun-synchronous and non-sun-synchronous satellites with the core satellite providing measurements of cloud-precipitation microphysical processes plus calibration-quality rainrate retrievals to be used with the other retrieval information to ensure bias-free constellation coverage. A major requirement before the retrieved rainfall information generated by the GPM mission can be used effectively by prognostic models to improve weather forecasts, hydrometeorological forecasts, and climate model reanalysis simulations is a capability to quantify the error characteristics of the retrievals. A solution for this problem has been upheld in past precipitation missions because of the lack of suitable error modeling systems incorporated into the validation programs and data distribution systems. An overview of how NASA intends to overcome this problem for the GPM mission using a physically-based error modeling approach within a multi-faceted validation program is described. The solution is to first identify specific user requirements and then determine the most stringent of these requirements that embodies all essential error characterization information needed by the entire user community. In the context of NASA s scientific agenda for the GPM mission, the most stringent user requirement is found within the data assimilation community. The fundamental theory of data assimilation vis-a-vis ingesting satellite precipitation information into the pre-forecast initializations is based on quantifying the conditional bias and precision errors of individual rain retrievals, and the space-time structure of the precision error (i.e., the spatial-temporal error covariance). By generating the hardware and software capability to produce this information in a near real-time fashion, and to couple the derived quantitative error properties to the actual retrieved rainrates, all key validation users can be satisfied. The talk will describe the essential components of the hardware and software systems needed to generate such near real-time error properties, as well as the various paradigm shifts needed within the validation community to produce a validation program relevant to the precipitation user community.

Description: During June and July of 1993, devastating and persistent rainfall caused substantial damage in the Midwest United States primarily focused on the Mississippi River Basin. Above noma1 springtime rains primed the region for flooding. The resulting wet soil was thought to be a major source of water for the heavy summer precipitation. On the other hand, northward moisture transport was extremely intense during the summer. In this study, we have implemented passive tracers to diagnose the geographic source of water for precipitation, called Water Vapor Tracers (WVT), into the NASA Data Assimilation Office (DAO) Data Assimilation System (DAS). The WVT diagnostics can produce detailed budgets of the geographical sources of water that precipitates in any region, and they consider physical and dynamical tendencies at the model time step. The 1993 summer has been reanalyzed with the new WVT diagnostics to better understand the local and remote source of water for precipitation during the flood. Because the DAS also uses observations of water in the atmospheric hydrologic budget, we will also evaluate the impact of the observations on the local and remote sources of water in the DAS.

Description: The behavior of the ice sheet remains the single most compelling research topic in Antarctic glaciology. This is being addressed through a combination of surface, airborne and satellite measurement programs. Most recently, the addition of ICESat with its laser altimeter is improving our ability to quantify where and by how the ice sheet is changing shape. Other disciplines take advantage of the ice sheet as a unique depository of climatic information. Deep ice cores for paleoclimatic data are the best known example, but a more widely distributed sampling of the ice sheet with shallower cores is providing a more detailed spatial picture of the Antarctic climate for the past 200-500 years. A number of specific examples will be shown to illustrate both of these major research thrusts along with some predictions of future research directions.

Description: The Envisat chemistry instruments provide an opportunity to continue the ozone data sets produced by TOMS, SBUV, HALOE, and SAGE. These data sets have already been extensively validated and are assured to be of high accuracy. Continuity and consistency of data sets among the various satellite instruments as well as ground networks is essential for detecting an ozone recovery and climate change. Our objective, as part of the Envisat CaWal program, is to validate SCIAMACHY, MIPAS, and GOMOS ozone products using these heritage instruments. In addition we plan to validate SCIAMACHY Level 1 radiance using heritage satellite data and ground observations using a radiative transfer model. Ground based data included US ozonesonde profiles and a double monochromator Brewer instrument located at Goddard Space Flight Center. To date we have tested our intercomparisons algorithms using available Envisat data compared with SBW/2 and the ground based observations. We analyzed the comparisons with respect to ozone amounts and latitude and found the differences that were expected based on the initial release of Envisat data, which had known deficiencies. We will present our latest results based on the most current release of Envisat ozone data products.

Description: Data assimilation is all about understanding the error characteristics of the data and models that are used in the assimilation process. Reliable error estimates are needed to implement observational quality control, bias correction of observations and model fields, and intelligent data selection. Meaningful covariance specifications are obviously required for the analysis as well, since the impact of any single observation strongly depends on the assumed structure of the background errors. Operational atmospheric data assimilation systems still rely primarily on climatological background error covariances. To obtain error estimates that reflect both the character of the flow and the current state of the observing system, it is necessary to solve three problems: (1) how to account for the short-term evolution of errors in the initial conditions; (2) how to estimate the additional component of error caused by model defects; and (3) how to compute the error reduction in the analysis due to observational information. Various approaches are now available that provide approximate solutions to the first and third of these problems. However, the useful accuracy of these solutions very much depends on the size and character of the model errors and the ability to account for them. Model errors represent the real-world forcing of the error evolution in a data assimilation system. Clearly, meaningful model error estimates and/or statistics must be based on information external to the model itself. The most obvious information source is observational, and since the volume of available geophysical data is growing rapidly, there is some hope that a purely statistical approach to model error estimation can be viable. This requires that the observation errors themselves are well understood and quantifiable. We will discuss some of these challenges and present a new sequential scheme for estimating model error variances from observations in the context of an atmospheric data assimilation system.

Description: Lightning flash rate can identify areas of convective rainfall when the storms are dominated by ice-phase precipitation. Modeling and observational studies indicate that cloud electrification and microphysics are very closely related and it is of great interest to understand the relationship between lightning and cloud microphysical quantities. Analyzing data from the Lightning Image Sensor (LIS) and the Precipitation Radar (PR), we show a quantitative relationship between microphysical characteristics of thunderclouds and lightning flash rate. We have performed a complete analysis of all data available over the Mediterranean during the TRMM mission and show a range of reflective profiles as a function of lightning activity for both convective and stratiform regimes as well as seasonal variations. Due to the increasing global coverage of lightning detection networks, this kind of study can used to extend the knowledge about thunderstorms and discriminate between different regimes in regions where radar measurements are readilly available.

Description: A diagnostic study is made of the mean global divergent circulation based upon a constrained least action principle that minimizes column-integrated divergent kinetic energy subject to constraints on mass, moisture, available potential energy (ape) and total kinetic energy. The concept of gross moist stability was incorporated in the prescription of Lagrange weight function associated with the ape constraint in order to simulate the net effects of cumulus convective heating in the tropics. The variational analyses were validated satisfactorily with the original NCEP/NCAR-reanalysis divergence fields for the Septembers of 1987 and 1988. Further analyses show that in the tropical ascending regions, the analyzed divergences are dominated by the mass and ape constraints; the moisture constraint is implicitly satisfied while the kinetic energy constraint is highly dependent on the ape constraint. In the subtropical descending regions, the analyzed divergences are dominated by the mass, moisture and kinetic energy constraints; the ape constraint is implicitly satisfied. When the constraint integrals were blended with the satellite-derived boundary flux data from GPCP precipitation and ERBE/SRB radiation estimates, the newly analyzed divergences are significantly stronger than the reanalysis divergences in the areas where the estimates of precipitation rates are higher. With few exceptions, the increases in upper-layer divergences are coupled with nearly equal increases in lower-layer convergences.

Description: Data from a single WSR-88D Doppler radar and the National Lightning Detection Network are used to examine in detail the characteristics of the convective storms that produced a severe tornado outbreak within Tropical Storm Beryl's remnants on 16 August 1994. Comparison of the radar data with reports of tornadoes suggests that only 13 cells produced the 29 tornadoes that were documented in Georgia and the Carolinas on that date. Six of these cells spawned multiple tornadoes, and the radar data confirm the presence of miniature supercells. One of the cells was identifiable on radar for 11 hours, spawning tornadoes over a time period spanning approximately 6.5 hours. Several other tornadic cells also exhibited great longevity, with cell lifetimes greater than ever previously documented in a landfalling tropical cyclone tornado event, and comparable to those found in major midlatitude tornadic supercell outbreaks. Time-height analyses of the three strongest tornadic supercells are presented in order to document storm kinematic structure and to show how these storms appear at different ranges from a WSR-88D radar. In addition, cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning data are examined for the outbreak, the most intense tropical cyclone tornado event studied thus far. Although the tornadic cells were responsible for most of Beryl's CG lightning, flash rates were only weak to moderate, even in the most intense supercells, and in all the tornadic storms the lightning flashes were almost entirely negative in polarity. A few of the single-tornado storms produced no detectable CG lightning at all. In the stronger cells, there is some evidence that CG lightning rates decreased during tornadogenesis, as has been documented before in some midlatitude tornadic storms. A number of the storms spawned tornadoes just after producing their final CG lightning flashes. Surprisingly, both peak currents and positive flash percentages were larger in Beryl s nontornadic storms than in the tornadic ones. Despite some intriguing patterns, the CG lightning behavior in this outbreak remains mostly inconsistent and ambiguous, and offers only secondary value for warning guidance. The present findings argue in favor of the implementation of observing systems capable of continuous monitoring of total lightning activity in storms.

Description: A four station Advanced Lightning Direction Finder (ALDF) network was established in the state of Rondonia in western Brazil in 1999 through a collaboration of U.S. and Brazilian participants from NASA, INPE, INMET, and various universities. The network utilizes ALDF IMPACT (Improved Accuracy from Combined Technology) sensors to provide cloud-to-ground lightning observations (i.e., stroke/flash locations, signal amplitude, and polarity) using both time-of- arrival and magnetic direction finding techniques. The observations are collected, processed and archived at a central site in Brasilia and at the NASA/Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama. Initial, non-quality assured quick-look results are made available in near real-time over the Internet. The network, which is still operational, was deployed to provide ground truth data for the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite that was launched in November 1997. The measurements are also being used to investigate the relationship between the electrical, microphysical and kinematic properties of tropical convection. In addition, the long-time series observations produced by this network will help establish a regional lightning climatological database, supplementing other databases in Brazil that already exist or may soon be implemented. Analytic inversion algorithms developed at the NASA/Marshall Space Flight Center have been applied to the Rondonian ALDF lightning observations to obtain site error corrections and improved location retrievals. The data will also be corrected for the network detection efficiency. The processing methodology and the results from the analysis of four years of network operations will be presented.

Description: Two approaches are used to characterize how accurately the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) is able to locate lightning VHF sources in space and in time. The first method uses a Monte Carlo computer simulation to estimate source retrieval errors. The simulation applies a VHF source retrieval algorithm that was recently developed at the NASA-MSFC and that is similar, but not identical to, the standard New Mexico Tech retrieval algorithm. The second method uses a purely theoretical technique (i.e., chi-squared Curvature Matrix theory) to estimate retrieval errors. Both methods assume that the LMA system has an overall rms timing error of 50ns, but all other possible errors (e.g., multiple sources per retrieval attempt) are neglected. The detailed spatial distributions of retrieval errors are provided. Given that the two methods are completely independent of one another, it is shown that they provide remarkably similar results, except that the chi-squared theory produces larger altitude error estimates than the (more realistic) Monte Carlo simulation.

Description: Tropical and subtropical tropospheric ozone are important radiatively active species, with particularly large effects in the upper third of the troposphere. Temporal variability of O3 has proved difficult to simulate day by day in process models. Thus, individual roles of lightning, biomass burning, and other pollution in providing precursor NO(x), radicals, and chain carriers (CO, hydrocarbons) remain unquantified by simulation, and it is theoretically reasonable that individual roles are magnified by a joint synergy. We use wavelet analysis and Burg-algorithm maximum entropy spectral analyses to describe time-scales and correlation of ozone with proxies for processes controlling its concentration. Our empirical studies link time variations apparent in several datasets: the SHADOZ (Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes) network stations (Nairobi, Fiji), and auxiliary series with power to explain ozone-determining processes, with some interpretation based on the TTO (Tropical Tropospheric Ozone) product derived from TOMS (the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer). The auxiliary series are The OTD/LIS(Optical Transient Detector/Lightning Imaging Sensor) measurements of the lightning NO(x) source, the OLR (Outgoing Longwave Radiation)measurement of high-topped clouds, and standard meteorological variables from the United States NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) and Data Assimilation Office analyses. Concentrating on equatorial ozone, we compare the statistical evidence on the variability of tropospheric ozone. Important variations occur on approximately two-week, two-month (Madden-Julian Oscillation) and annual scales, and relations with OLR suggest controls associated with continental clouds. Hence we are now using the Lightning Imaging Sensor data set to indicate NO(x) sources. We report initial results defining relative roles of the process mentioned affecting O3 using their covariance properties.

Description: Our knowledge of the global distribution of lightning has improved dramatically since the 1995 launch of the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) followed in 1997 by the launch of the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS). Together, these instruments have generated a continuous seven-year record of global lightning activity. These lightning observations have provided a new global perspective on total lightning activity. For the first time, total lightning activity (CG and IC) has been observed over large regions with high detection efficiencies and accurate geographic location. This has produced new insights into lightning distributions, times of occurrence and variability. It has produced a revised global flash rate estimate (46 flashes per second) and has lead to a new realization of the significance of total lightning activity in severe weather. Accurate flash rate estimates are now available for large areas of the earth (+/- 72deg latitude) Ocean-land contrasts as a function of season are clearly revealed, as are orographic effects and seasonal and interannual variability. The data set indicates that air mass thunderstorms, not large storm systems dominate global activity. The ability of LIS and OTD to detect total lightning has lead to improved insight into the correlation between lightning and storm development. The relationship between updraft development and lightning activity is now well established and presents an opportunity for providing a new mechanism for remotely monitoring storm development. In this concept, lightning would serve as a surrogate for updraft velocity. It is anticipated hat this capability could lead to significantly improved severe weather warning times and reduced false warning rates.

Description: In a data assimilation system the forecast error covariance matrix governs the way in which the data information is spread throughout the model grid. Implementation of a correct method of assigning covariances is expected to have an impact on the analysis results. The simplest models assume that correlations are constant in time and isotropic or nearly isotropic. In such models the analysis depends on the dynamics only through assumed error standard deviations. In applications to atmospheric tracer data assimilation this may lead to inaccuracies, especially in regions with strong wind shears or high gradient of potential vorticity, as well as in areas where no data are available. In order to overcome this problem we have developed a flow-dependent covariance model that is based on short term evolution of error correlations. The presentation compares performance of a static and a flow-dependent model applied to a global three- dimensional ozone data assimilation system developed at NASA s Data Assimilation Office. We will present some results of validation against WMO balloon-borne sondes and the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM) III instrument. Experiments show that allowing forecast error correlations to evolve with the flow results in positive impact on assimilated ozone within the regions where data were not assimilated, particularly at high latitudes in both hemispheres and in the troposphere. We will also discuss statistical characteristics of both models; in particular we will argue that including evolution of error correlations leads to stronger internal consistency of a data assimilation ,

Description: The Joss-Waldvogel (JW) disdrometer is considered to be a reference instrument for drop size distribution measurements. It has been widely used in many field campaigns as part of validation efforts of radar rainfall estimation. It has also been incorporated in radar rain gauge rainfall observation networks at several ground validation sites for NASA s Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). It is anticipated that the Joss-Waldvogel disdrometer will be one of the key instruments for ground validation for the upcoming Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission. The JW is an impact type disdrometer and has several shortcomings. One such shortcoming is that it underestimates the number of small drops in heavy rain due to the disdrometer dead time. The detection of smaller drops is also suppressed in the presence of background noise. Further, drops larger than 5.0 to 5.5 mm diameter cannot be distinguished by the disdrometer. The JW assumes that all raindrops fall at their terminal fall speed. Ignoring the influence of vertical air motion on raindrop fall speed results in errors in determining the raindrop size. Also, the bulk descriptors of rainfall that requires the fall speed of the drops will be overestimated or underestimated due to errors in measured size and assumed fall velocity. Long-term observations from a two-dimensional video disdrometer are employed to simulate the JW disdrometer and assess how it s shortcomings affect radar rainfall estimation. Data collected from collocated JW disdrometers were also incorporated in this study.

Description: The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model examines the impact of various microphysical schemes, and vertical and horizontal resolution in the development, intensity and rainfall associated with mesoscale convective systems, idealized hurricanes and an ensemble of clouds. The model variables include horizontal and vertical velocities, potential temperature, perturbation pressure, turbulent kinetic energy, and mixing rations of all water phases (vapor, liquid and ice). The major characteristics of the GCE model are the explicit representation of warm rain and ice microphysical processes, and their complex interactions with solar and infrared radiative transfer processes and with surface processes. For idealized hurricanes, an axisymmetric version of the GCE model was developed and used to simulate the tropical cyclogenesis process using both a Rankin vortex and saturated air within a specified radius as initial conditions. For mesoscale convective systems, the 3-D version of the GCE model was use to simulate squall lines that developed in the western Pacific, South China Sea, eastern Atlantic, South America and central U.S. FOr the cloud ensemble, the GCE model was integrated for several days in order to have a good sampling of cloud statistics. In this paper, the sensitivities of hurricane intensity to various microphysical processes and model grid resolutio will be examined. This will be mainly achieved by performing sensitivity tests using various horizontal (from 1-to 5-km) and vertical resolutions (from 20- to 200-m in the lower troposphere to 200- to 500m in the middle and upper troposphere). Sensitivity test using various microphysical schemes (warm rain only, and three ice with either graupel or hail) will also be performed. The thermodynamic and water budget associated with various types of precipitation systems will also be evaluated. The budgets will be calculated for different regions (i.e., convective and stratiform regions).

Description: The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model with bin spectra microphysics is used to simulate mesoscale convective systems.The model uses explicit bins to represent size spectra of cloud nuclei, water drops, ice crystals, snow and graupel. Each hydrometeorite category is described by 33 mass bins. The simulations provide a unique data set of simulated raindrop size distribution in a realistic dynamic frame. Calculations of radar parameters using simulated drop size distribution serve as an evaluation of numerical model performance. In addition, the GCE bin spectra modes is a very useful tool to study uncertainties related to radar observations; all the environmental parameters are precisely known. In this presentation, we concentrate on the discussion of Z-R (ZDR-R) relation in the simulated systems. Due to computational limitations, the spectra bin model has been run in two dimensions with 31 stretched vertical layers and 1026 horizontal grid points (1 km resolution). Two different cases, one in midlatitude continent, the other in tropical ocean, have been simulated. The continental case is a strong convection which lasted for two hours. The oceanic case is a persistent system with more than 10 hours' life span. It is shown that the simulated Z-R (ZDR-R) relations generally agree with observations using radar and rain gauge data. The spatial and temporal variations of Z-R relation in different locations are also analyzed. Impact of aerosols on cloud formation and raindrop size distribution was studied. Both clean (low CCN) and dirty (high CCN) cases are simulated. The Z-R relation is shown to vary considerable in the initial CCN concentrations.

Description: Structure and function of terrestrial plant communities bring about intimate relations between water, energy, and carbon exchange between land surface and atmosphere. Total evaporation, which is the sum of transpiration, soil evaporation and evaporation of intercepted water, couples water and energy balance equations. The rate of transpiration, which is the major fraction of total evaporation over most of the terrestrial land surface, is linked to the rate of carbon accumulation because functioning of stomata is optimized by both of these processes. Thus, quantifying the spatial and temporal variations of the transpiration efficiency (which is defined as the ratio of the rate of carbon accumulation and transpiration), and water use efficiency (defined as the ratio of the rate of carbon accumulation and total evaporation), and evaluation of modeling results against observations, are of significant importance in developing a better understanding of land surface processes. An approach has been developed for quantifying spatial and temporal variations of transpiration, and water-use efficiency based on biophysical process-based models, satellite and field observations. Calculations have been done using concurrent meteorological data derived from satellite observations and four dimensional data assimilation for four consecutive years (1987-1990) over an agricultural area in the Northern Great Plains of the US, and compared with field observations within and outside the study area. The paper provides substantive new information about interannual variation, particularly the effect of drought, on the efficiency values at a regional scale.

Description: The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is used to examine the impact of various microphysical schemes, and vertical and horizontal resolution on the development, intensity and rainfall associated with mesoscale convective systems, idealized hurricanes and an ensemble of clouds. The model variables include horizontal and vertical velocities, potential temperature, perturbation pressure, turbulent kinetic energy, and mixing ratios of all water phases (vapor, liquid, and ice). The major characteristics of the GCE model are the explicit representation of warm rain and ice microphysical processes, and their complex interactions with solar and infrared radiative transfer processes, and with surface processes. For idealized hurricane, an axisymmetric version of the GCE model was developed and used successfully to simulate the tropical cyclogenesis process using both a Rankin vortex and saturated air within a specified radius as initial conditions. For mesoscale convective systems, the 3-D version of the GCE model was used to simulate squall lines that developed in the western Pacific, eastern Atlantic and central US. For the cloud ensemble, the GCE model was integrated for several days in order to have good sampling of cloud statistics. In this paper, the sensitivities of hurricane intensity to various microphysical processes and model grid resolution will be examined.

Description: Recent studies indicate that a cloudy atmosphere absorbs more solar radiation than any current 1D or 3D radiation model can predict. The excess absorption is not large, perhaps 10-15 W/sq m or less, but any such systematic bias is of concern since radiative transfer models are assumed to be sufficiently accurate for remote sensing applications and climate modeling. The most natural explanation would be that models do not capture real 3D cloud structure and, as a consequence, their photon path lengths are too short. However, extensive calculations, using increasingly realistic 3D cloud structures, failed to produce photon paths long enough to explain the excess absorption. Other possible explanations have also been unsuccessful so, at this point, conventional models seem to offer no solution to this puzzle. The weakest link in conventional models is the way a size distribution of cloud particles is mathematically handled. Basically, real particles are replaced with a single average particle. This "ensemble assumption" assumes that all particle sizes are well represented in any given elementary volume. But the concentration of larger particles can be so low that this assumption is significantly violated. We show how a different mathematical route, using the concept of a cumulative distribution, avoids the ensemble assumption. The cumulative distribution has jumps, or steps, corresponding to the rarer sizes. These jumps result in an additional term, a kind of Green's function, in the solution of the radiative transfer equation. Solving the cloud radiative transfer equation with the measured particle distributions, described in a cumulative rather than an ensemble fashion, may lead to increased cloud absorption of the magnitude observed.

Description: This talk addresses the relationships between weather and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and various other low frequency atmospheric variations such as the Pacific/North American pattern. We focus, in particular, on the predictability of extreme wintertime precipitation events over the continental United States. We first examine fifty years of daily precipitation observations and quantify the leading patterns of winter weather variability. These weather systems, familiar to operational weather forecasters, account for many of the major flooding events on the west coast as well as the major winter snowstorms along the east coast. We next examine the statistics of these storm systems with a particular focus on the occurrence of extreme events. The leading weather systems show varying degrees of linkages to low frequency atmospheric variability. We show, for example, that on seasonal time scales the probability of occurrence of certain types of west coast storms is strongly enhanced by El Nino, while it is reduced during winters with an anomalous trough to the west of the dateline. ENSO also has a strong impact on storms that develop over the Gulf of Mexico and affect much of the eastern United States, with enhanced storminess during El Nino, and reduced storminess during La Nina conditions. We conclude with an example of how well current climate models are able to reproduce the basic linkages between weather and low frequency variability.

Description: A one-dimensional radiative transfer algorithm that accounts for correlations between the optical thickness and the incident direct solar radiation is developed to compute the domain-averaged shortwave irradiance profile. It divides the direct irradiance into four components and treats the direct irradiance in two separate, clear and cloudy columns to account for the fact that clouds attenuate the direct irradiance more than clear-sky. The horizontal inhomogeneity of clouds in the cloudy column is treated by the gamma weighted two-stream approximation, which assumes that the optical thickness of clouds follows a gamma distribution. The algorithm inputs the cloud fraction, cumulative cloud fraction as a function of height, and a parameter expressing the shape of the probability density function of the cloud optical thickness distribution in addition to inputs required for a two-stream radiative transfer model. These cloud property inputs can be obtained using ground- and satellite-based instruments. Therefore, the algorithm can treat realistic cloud overlap features and horizontal inhomogeneity of clouds in a framework of one- dimensional radiative transfer. Heating rates computed by the algorithm using cloud fields generated by cloud resolving models agree with those computed with a Monte Carlo model. If optical properties in computational layers that divide a vertically extensive cloud are correlated, the irradiance profile computed by the algorithm further improves.

Description: Clouds and the Earth s Radiant Energy System (CERES) investigates the critical role that clouds and aerosols play in modulating the radiative energy flow within the Earth-atmosphere system. CERES builds upon the foundation laid by previous missions, such as the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment, to provide highly accurate top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes together with coincident cloud and aerosol properties inferred from high-resolution imager measurements. This paper describes the method used to construct empirical angular distribution models (ADMs) for estimating shortwave, longwave, and window TOA radiative fluxes from CERES radiance measurements on board the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite. To construct the ADMs, multiangle CERES measurements are combined with coincident high-resolution Visible Infrared Scanner measurements and meteorological parameters from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts data assimilation product. The ADMs are stratified by scene types defined by parameters that have a strong influence on the angular dependence of Earth's radiation field at the TOA. Examples of how the new CERES ADMs depend upon the imager-based parameters are provided together with comparisons with existing models.

Description: In this study we examine the links between tropical heating, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO)/Intraseasonal Oscillation (ISO), and the Asian monsoon. We are particularly interested in isolating the nature of the poleward propagation of the ISO/MJO in the monsoon region. We examine both observations and idealized "MJO heating" experiments employing the NASA Seasonal-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). In the idealized 10-member ensemble simulations, the model is forced by climatological SST and an idealized eastward propagating heating profile that is meant to mimic the canonical heating associated with the MJO in the Indian Ocean and western Pacific. In order to understand the impact of SST on the off equatorial convection (or Rossby-wave response), a second set of 10-member ensemble simulations is carried out with the climatological SSTs shifted in time by 6-months. The observational analysis highlights the strong link between the Indian summer monsoon and the tropical ISO/MJO activity and heating. This includes the well-known meridional propagation that affects the summer monsoons of both hemispheres. The AGCM experiments with the idealized eastward propagating MJO-like heating reproduce the observed meridional propagation including the observed seasonal differences. The impact of the SSTs are to enhance the magnitude of the propagation into the summer hemispheres. The results suggest that the winter/summer differences associated with the MJO/ISO are auxiliary features that depend on the MJO's environment (basic state and boundary conditions) and are not the result of fundamental differences in the MJO itself.

Description: While substantial advances have occurred over the last few decades in both weather and seasonal prediction, progress in improving predictions on subseasonal time scales (approximately 2 weeks to 2 months) has been slow. In this talk I will highlight some of the recent progress that has been made to improve forecasts on subseasonal time scales and outline the challenges that we face both from an observational and modeling perspective. The talk will be based primarily on the results and conclusions of a recent NASA-sponsored workshop that focused on the subseasonal prediction problem. One of the key conclusions of that workshop was that there is compelling evidence for predictability at forecast lead times substantially longer than two weeks, and that much of that predictability is currently untapped. Tropical diabatic heating and soil wetness were singled out as particularly important processes affecting predictability on these time scales. Predictability was also linked to various low-frequency atmospheric phenomena such as the annular modes in high latitudes (including their connections to the stratosphere), the Pacific/North American pattern, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation. I will end the talk by summarizing the recommendations and plans that have been put forward for accelerating progress on the subseasonal prediction problem.

Description: The troposphere is the lower boundary for the stratosphere. As such, it provides a radiative boundary that is a large source of IR flux into for the stratosphere and scattered UV-Vis energy. Planetary-scale waves that are forced in the troposphere can propagate into the stratosphere, providing a large additional source of energy for the stratosphere. This wave energy is the principal energy source for the Brewer-Dobson circulation. Medium-scale wave can also propagate into the lower stratosphere, but have a smaller effect. The final source of energy for the stratosphere comes from smaller scale disturbances such as gravity waves, mixed Rossby-gravity modes, and Kelvin waves. These smaller scale waves provide an important source of energy for the stratosphere. In this presentation we will cover these tropospheric sources of energy that effect the stratosphere. In particular, we will focus attention on planetary scale waves and their forcings.

Description: One key application of atmospheric chemistry and transport models is prediction of the response of ozone and other constituents to various natural and anthropogenic perturbations. These include changes in composition, such as the previous rise and recent decline in emission of man-made chlorofluorcarbons, changes in aerosol loading due to volcanic eruption, and changes in solar forcing. Comparisons of hindcast model results for the past few decades with observations are a key element of model evaluation and provide a sense of the reliability of model predictions. The 25 year data set from Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometers is a cornerstone of such model evaluation. Here we report evaluation of three-dimensional multi-decadal simulation of stratospheric composition. Meteorological fields for this off-line calculation are taken from a 50 year simulation of a general circulation model. Model fields are compared with observations from TOMS and also with observations from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE), Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), Cryogenic Limb Array Etalon Spectrometer (CLAES), and the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE). This overall evaluation will emphasize the spatial, seasonal, and interannual variability of the simulation compared with observed atmospheric variability.

Description: A new altitude dependent ozone climatology has been produced for use with the latest Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) retrieval algorithms. The climatology consists of monthly average profiles for ten degree latitude zones covering from 0 to 60 km. The climatology was formed by combining data from SAGE II (1988 to 2000) and MLS (1991-1999) with data from balloon sondes (1988-2002). Ozone below about 20 km is based on balloons sondes, while ozone above 30 km is based on satellite measurements. The profiles join smoothly between 20 and 30 km. The ozone climatology in the southern hemisphere and tropics has been greatly enhanced in recent years by the addition of balloon sonde stations under the SHADOZ (Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes) program. A major source of error in the TOMS and SBUV retrieval of total column ozone comes from their reduced sensitivity to ozone in the lower troposphere. An accurate climatology for the retrieval a priori is important for reducing this error on the average. The new climatology follows the seasonal behavior of tropospheric ozone and reflects its hemispheric asymmetry. Comparisons of TOMS version 8 ozone with ground stations show an improvement due in part to the new climatology.

Description: The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is used to examine the impact of various microphysical schemes, and vertical and horizontal resolution ion the development, intensity and rainfall associated with mesoscale convective systems, idealized hurricanes and an ensemble f clouds. The model variables include horizontal and vertical velocities, potential temperatures, perturbation pressure, turbulent kinetic energy, and mixing ratios of all water phases (vapor, liquid, and ice). The major characteristics of the GCE model are the explicit representation of warm rain and ice microphysical processes, and their complex interactions with solar and infrared radiative transfer processes, and with surface processes. For idealized hurricane, an axisymmetric version of the GCE model was developed and used successfully to simulate the tropical cyclogenesis process using both a Rankin vortex and saturated air within a specified radius as initial conditions. For mesoscale convective systems, the 3-D version of the GCE model was used to simulated squall lines that developed in the western Pacific, eastern Atlantic and central US. For the cloud ensemble, the GCE model was integrated for several days in order to have good sampling of cloud statistics. In this paper, the sensitivities of hurricane intensity to various microphysical processes and model grid resolution will be examined. This will be mainly achieved by performing sensitivity tests using various horizontal (from 1- to 5-km) and vertical resolutions (from 20- to 200-m in the lower troposphere to 200- to 500-m in the middle and upper troposphere). Sensitivity tests using various microphysical schemes (warm rain only, and three ice with either graupel or hail) will also be performed. The thermodynamic and water budget associated with various types of precipitation systems will also be evaluated. The budgets will be calculated for different regions (i.e., convective and stratiform regions).

Description: Work to develop adjoint-based methods for estimating CO2 sources and sinks from atmospheric concentration data was initiated in preparation for last year's summer institute on Carbon Data Assimilation (CDAS) at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, CO. The workshop exercises used the GSFC Parameterized Chemistry and Transport Model and its adjoint. Since the workshop, a number of simulations have been run to evaluate the performance of the model adjoint. Results from these simulations will be presented, along with an outline of challenges associated with incorporating a variety of disparate data sources, from sparse, but highly precise, surface in situ observations to less accurate, global future satellite observations.

Description: We will describe the uses of passive tracers in GCMs to compute the geographical sources of water for precipitation. We will present a summary of recent research and how this methodology can be applied in climate and climate change studies. We will also discuss the possibility of using passive tracers in conjunction with simulations and observations of stable observations.

Description: Since the last meeting, the GSFC Stratospheric Ozone Lidar has participated in two campaigns at MLO - an ozone and temperature comparison and a water vapor comparison. The trailer has been returned to GSFC to begin transfer into a sea container, before deployment to Reunion Island in Spring, 2004.

Description: Often, late-year, flood-producing storms in the Mediterranean Alps region arise from baroclinic disturbances developing on westerly longwaves, with the incipient storm circulations appearing well west of the flood zone. Regardless of the genesis locations and before the storms begin their flow interactions with the orography of the Mediterranean Alps, a process which can produce intense long-lived rainfall over the mountainous terrain of Italy and France, most of their moisture is drawn from warm Mediterranean waters while important elements of their thermodynamic structure are derived from airmass properties originating in north Africa and the Mediterranean basin itself. In fact, because of strong thermodynamic contrasts between the baroclinic zone producing the incipient disturbance and high potential temperature air from the south advecting into and wrapping around the storm center, a Mediterranean storm whose origins are from an evolving shortwave baroclinic perturbation, can become a quasi-warm core hybrid in term of its energetics composition, a process somewhat akin to the development of polar lows. This process begs the question of whether there are similarities between the autumn-winter season flood producing storms of the Mediterranean Alps and warm core tropical cyclones which become altered dynamically and thermodynamically by landfall over steep orographic terrain. This study investigates, from a comparison and contrast perspective, how the similarities and differences between the two types of storms manifest themselves over their respective life cycles. Before the orographically-induced precipitation-release stage in which both types of storm have evolved to the same hydrometeorlogical conclusion, the two storm categories are transforming from entirely distinctive origins, i.e., the classic eastward traveling, baroclinic mid-latitude cyclone forming in western Europe, and the classic eastward-traveling, warm core tropical cyclone developing in the western Pacific. The analyses use high resolution, nonhydrostatic model simulations, satellite data, and various types of ground data to conduct the study. The flood events of Piemonte- 2000 in northern Italy and Typhoon Rusa-2002 in South Korea are selected to focus the analysis on well documented meteorological events.

Description: Satellite passive microwave data from November 1998 through October 2002 are used to evaluate the changing characteristics and the variability of the sea ice cover in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere. Large seasonal changes in the extent and area are apparent with those of the Southern Hemisphere being more seasonal but less symmetric than those of the Northern Hemisphere. In the Northern Hemisphere, the ice cover is observed to be on a decline at the rate of -2% and -3% per decade for ice extent and ice area, respectively, but there are areas like the Bering Sea with strong positive trends. It is remarkable. however, that the rate of decline of the perennial ice cover. or ice area at the end of the summer, is considerably larger at -9% per decade. If such a rate of decline is sustained for a few more decades, the perennial ice cover may disappear within this century. In the Antarctic, large year to year anomalies in the ice cover are observed but they follow a pattern of alternating positive and negative anomalies around the continent and showing consistency with a propagating Antarctic Circumpolar wave that circles around the region. Large negative trends of about - 11% per decade are, however, observed in the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Seas but this is offset by a similar magnitude but positive trend in the Ross Sea region. Overall, the trend for the entire Antarctic ice cover is positive but basically insignificant.

Description: Recently, it has been argued that the region where water vapor is a minimum in the tropical tropopause layer is located downstream of convection. If true, this would suggest that in situ dehydration was playing a role in regulating water vapor near the tropical tropopause. In this presentation, I will use UARS MLS water vapor measurements, as well as various proxies for convection, to argue that the water vapor minimum is closely collocated with convection. I will also provide potential explanations as to why previous analyses have reached a different conclusion.

Description: Prediction of climate relies on models, and better model prediction depends on good model physics. Improving model physics requires the maximal utilization of climate data of the past, present and future. CEOP provides the first example of a comprehensive, integrated global and regional data set, consisting of globally gridded data, reference site in-situ observations, model location time series (MOLTS), and integrated satellite data for a two-year period covering two complete annual cycles of 2003-2004. The monsoon regions are the most important socio-economically in terms of devastation by floods and droughts, and potential impacts from climate change md fluctuatinns nf the hydrologic cyc!e. Scientifically, it is most challenging, because of complex interactions of atmosphere, land and oceans, local vs. remote forcings in contributing to climate variability and change in the region. Given that many common features, and physical teleconnection exist among different monsoon regions, an international research focus on monsoon must be coordinated and sustained. Current models of the monsoon are grossly inadequate for regional predictions. For improvement, models must be confronted with relevant observations, and model physic developers must be made to be aware of the wealth of information from existing climate data, field measurements, and satellite data that can be used to improve models. Model transferability studles must be conducted. CIMS is a major initiative under CEOP to engage the modeling and the observational communities to join in a coordinated effort to study the monsoons. The objectives of CIMS are (a) To provide a better understanding of fundamental physical processes (diurnal cycle, annual cycle, and intraseasonal oscillations) in monsoon regions around the world and (b) To demonstrate the synergy and utility of CEOP data in providing a pathway for model physics evaluation and improvement. In this talk, I will present the basic concepts of CIMS and the key scientific problems facing monsoon climates and provide examples of common monsoon features, and possible monsoon induced teleconnections linking different parts of the world.

Description: Desert dust and marine aerosols are receiving increased scientific attention because of their prevalence on intercontinental scales and their potentially large effects on Earth radiation and climate, as well as on other aerosols, clouds, and precipitation. The relatively large size of desert dust and marine aerosols produces scattering phase functions that are strongly forward- peaked. Hence, Sun photometry and pyrheliometry of these aerosols are more subject to diffuse-light errors than is the case for smaller aerosols. Here we quantify these diffuse-light effects for common Sun photometer and pyrheliometer fields of view (FOV), using a data base on dust and marine aerosols derived from (1) AERONET measurements of sky radiance and solar beam transmission and (2) in situ measurements of aerosol layer size distribution and chemical composition. Accounting for particle non-sphericity is important when deriving dust size distribution from both AERONET and in situ aerodynamic measurements. We express our results in terms of correction factors that can be applied to Sun photometer and pyrheliometer measurements of aerosol optical depth (AOD). We find that the corrections are negligible (less than approximately 1% of AOD) for Sun photometers with narrow FOV (half-angle eta less than degree), but that they can be as large as 10% of AOD at 354 nm wavelength for Sun photometers with eta = 1.85 degrees. For pyrheliometers (which can have eta up to approximately 2.8 degrees), corrections can be as large as 16% at 354 nm. We find that AOD correction factors are well correlated with AOD wavelength dependence (hence Angstrom exponent). We provide best-fit equations for determining correction factors from Angstrom exponents of uncorrected AOD spectra, and we demonstrate their application to vertical profiles of multiwavelength AOD.

Description: Considerable uncertainty surrounds the issue of whether precipitation over the tropical oceans (30" NE) systematically changes with interannual sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies that accompany El Nino (warm) and La Nina (cold) events. Although it is well documented that El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events with marked SST changes over the tropical oceans, produce significant regional changes in precipitation, water vapor, and radiative fluxes in the tropics, we still cannot yet adequately quantify the associated net integrated changes to water and heat balance over the entire tropical oceanic or land sectors. Robertson et al., [2001 GRL] for example, showed that substantial disagreement exists among contemporary satellite estimates of interannual variations in tropical rainfall that are associated with SST changes. Berg et al., [2002 J. Climate] have documented the distinct differences between precipitation structure over the eastern and western Pacific ITCZ and noted how various satellite precipitation algorithms may respond quite differently to ENSO modulations of these precipitation regimes. Resolving this uncertainty is important since precipitation and latent heat release variations over land and ocean sectors are key components of the tropical heat balance in its most aggregated form. Rainfall estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) averaged over the tropical oceans have not solved this issue and, in fact, show marked differences with estimates from two TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) passive microwave algorithms. In this paper we will focus on findings that uncertainties in microphysical assumptions necessitated by the single-frequency PR measurement pose difficulties for detecting climate-related precipitation signals. Recent work has shown that path-integrated attenuation derived from the effects of precipitation on the radar return from the ocean surface exhibits interannual variability that agrees closely with the TMI time series, yet the PR rainfall interannual variability (and attenuation derived predominantly from reflectivity) differs even in sign. We will explore these apparent inconsistencies and detail their impact on estimates of how ENSO events perturb the tropical rainfall. We will place these results in perspective by considering requirements for precipitation accuracy for global climate variability and change studies involving ENSO, monsoon dynamics and variations, and climate model improvement and validation. The discussion will conclude with an assessment of the implications of these findings for Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) requirements.

Description: Preliminary results are presented from experiments that integrate ozone observations from two ENVISAT-borne instruments with the ozone data assimilation system developed at NASA's Data Assimilation Office (DAO). The data used are ozone total column provided by the Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography (SCIAMACHY) and stratospheric profiles from the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) instrument. The DAO's existing system sequentially assimilates the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet/2 total and partial ozone column data. Incorporation of SCIAMACHY and MIPAS data is done in two stages. First, the observations are monitored. The monitoring consists of computing the differences between Envisat observations and the ozone system forecast, i.e. observed-minus-forecast (O-F) residuals. The O-F residuals are then analyzed using simple statistical methods to examine the spatial distribution of differences, which are large for SCIAMACHY near the terminator. In the second stage, the MIPAS data will be actively assimilated along with the SBW/2 observations; any preliminary results of note will be discussed.

Description: The presentation compares different versions of a global three-dimensional ozone data assimilation system developed at NASA's Data Assimilation Office. The Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet/2 (SBUV/2) total and partial ozone column retrievals are the sole data assimilated in all of the experiments presented. We study the impact of changing the forecast error covariance model from a version assuming static correlations with a one that captures a short-term Lagrangian evolution of those correlations. This is further combined with a study of the impact of neglecting the tropospheric ozone production, loss and dry deposition rates, which are obtained from the Harvard GEOS-CHEM model. We compare statistical characteristics of the assimilated data and the results of validation against independent observations, obtained from WMO balloon-borne sondes and the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM) III instrument. Experiments show that allowing forecast error correlations to evolve with the flow results in positive impact on assimilated ozone within the regions where data were not assimilated, particularly at high latitudes in both hemispheres. On the other hand, the main sensitivity to tropospheric chemistry is in the Tropics and sub-Tropics. The best agreement between the assimilated ozone and the in-situ sonde data is in the experiment using both flow-dependent error covariances and tropospheric chemistry.

Description: NASA's 2002 CRYSTAL-FACE field experiment focused on the formation and evolution of tropical cirrus cloud systems in southern Florida. Multiple aircraft extensively sampled cumulonimbus dynamical and microphysical properties, as well as characterizing ambient aerosol populations both inside and outside the full depth of the convective column. On July 18, unique measurements were taken when a powerful updraft was traversed directly by aircraft, providing a window into the primary source region of cumulonimbus anvil crystals. Observations of the updraft, entered at approximately l0 km altitude and -34 C, indicated more than 200 cloud particles per mL at vertical velocities exceeding 20 m/s and the presence of significant condensation nuclei and liquid water within the core. In this work, aerosol and cloud phase observations are integrated by simulating the updraft conditions using a large-eddy resolving model with 3 explicit multiphase microphysics, including treatment of size-resolved aerosol fields, aerosol activation and freezing, and evaporation of cloud particles back to the aerosol phase. Simulations were initialized with observed thermodynamic and aerosol size distributions profiles and convection was driven by surface fluxes assimilated from the ARPS forecast model. Model results are consistent with the conclusions that most crystals are homogeneously frozen droplets and that entrained free tropospheric aerosols may contribute a significant fraction of the crystals. Thus most anvil crystals appear to be formed aloft in updraft cores, well above cloud base. These conclusions are supported by observations of hydrometeor size distribution made while traversing the dore, as well as aerosol and cloud particle size distributions generally observed by aircraft below 4km and crystal properties generally observed by aircraft above 12km.

Description: The Altus Cumulus Electrification Study (ACES) was conducted during the month of August, 2002 in an area near Key West, Florida. One of the goals of this uninhabited aerial vehicle (UAV) study was to collect high resolution optical pulse and electric field data from thunderstorms. During the month long campaign, we acquired 5294 lightning generated optical pulses with associated electric field changes. Most of these observations were made while close to the top of the storms. We found filtered mean and median 10-10% optical pulse widths of 875 and 830 microns respectively while the 50-50% mean and median optical pulse widths are 422 and 365 microns respectively. These values are similar to previous results as are the 10-90% mean and median rise times of 327 and 265 microns. The peak electrical to optical pulse delay mean and median were 209 and 145 microns which is longer than one would expect from theoretical results. The results of the pulse analysis will contribute to further validation of the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) and the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) satellites. Pre-launch estimates of the flash detection efficiency were based on a small sample of optical pulse measurements associated with less than 350 lightning discharges collected by NASA U-2 aircraft in the early 1980s. Preliminary analyses of the ACES measurements show that we have greatly increased the number of optical pulses available for validation of the LIS and other orbital lightning optical sensors. Since the Altus was often close to the cloud tops, many of the optical pulses are from low-energy pulses. From these low-energy pulses, we can determine the fraction of optical lightning pulses below the thresholds of LIS, OTD, and any future satellite-based optical sensors such as the geostationary Lightning Mapping Sensor.

Description: How might lightning measurements be used to improve short-term (0-24 hr) weather forecasting? We examine this question under two different prediction strategies. These include integration of lightning data into short-term forecasts (nowcasts) of convective (including severe) weather hazards and the assimilation of lightning data into cloud-resolving numerical weather prediction models. In each strategy we define specific metrics of forecast improvement and a progress assessment. We also address the conventional observing system deficiencies and potential gap-filling information that can be addressed through the use of the lightning measurement.

Description: As computer power continues to increase, mesoscale models are initialized at all hours of the day and continue to be run at higher and higher spatial resolutions. As a result, initializing land surface temperature can be problematic. The majority of research-based models are initialized at 00 and 12 UTC when upper air observations and reanalysis fields are available. The landsea surface temperatures are then set equal to the two-meter air temperature produced by the preprocessor analysis system. This particular procedure might be valid in the early morning hours just prior to sunrise, but it becomes less valid during the remainder of the diurnal cycle. Operational models, such as the Rapid Update Cycle run at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), are initialized every hour on a daily basis. This presents a unique challenge to the initial specification of the land temperature, especially during the first several hours of the solar heating cycle when land and overlying air temperatures are far from being the same. Another issue that needs to be addressed is the spatial variability of land surface temperature. By early next year, the NCEP operational Eta model will be employed at 8 km resolution. Methods to accurately specify the initial land surface temperature at such high resolution need to be explored. This paper presents the results of using data from the NASA Moderate Imaging Sensor aboard the TERRA Satellite to initialize land and sea surface temperatures within the Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) 5'th generation Mesoscale Model (MM5). We have simulated a northern Gulf Coast sea breeze case to demonstrate the utility of using the MODIS data to initialize both the land and sea surface temperature fields. Model grid configurations of 12-, 4-, and l-km are employed.

Description: The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), developed as part of the Earth Observing System (EOS) and launched on Terra in December 1999 and Aqua in May 2002, is designed to meet the scientific needs for satellite remote sensing of clouds, aerosols, water vapor, and land and ocean surface properties. During the CRYSTAL-FACE experiment, numerous aircraft coordinated both in situ and remote sensing observations with the Terra and Aqua spacecraft. In this paper we will emphasize the optical, microphysical, and physical properties of both liquid water and ice clouds obtained from an analysis of the satellite observations over Florida and the Gulf of Mexico during July 2002. We will present the frequency distribution of liquid water and ice cloud microphysical properties throughout the region, separating the results over land and ocean. Probability distributions of effective radius and cloud optical thickness will also be shown.

Description: A TRMM-based 3-hr analyses that use TRMM observations to calibrate polar-orbit microwave observations from SSM/I (and other satellites) and geosynchronous IR observations and merges the various calibrated observations into a final, 3-hr resolution map is described. This TRMM standard product will be available for the entire TRMM period (January 1998-present) in 2003 as part of Version 6 of the TRMM products. A real-time version of this merged product is being produced and is available at 0.25" latitude-longitude resolution over the latitude range from 50 N-500S. Examples will be shown, including its use in monitoring flood conditions and in relating weather-scale patterns to climate-scale patterns. Plans to incorporate the TRMM data and 3-hourly analysis into the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) products are outlined. The outcome in the near future should be an improved global analysis and climatology on monthly scales for the 23 year period and finer time scale analyses for more recent periods, including 3-hourly analyses over the globe. These technique developments are potential prototypes for analyses with the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission.

Description: A key focus of CRYSTAL-FACE (Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and cirrus Layers - Florida Area Cirrus Experiment) was the generation and subsequent evolution of cirrus outflow from deep convective cloud systems. A preliminary integrated look at the observations of an extended cirrus anvil cloud system observed on 23 July 2002 will be presented, including lidar and millimeter radar observations from NASA's ER-2 and in- situ observations from NASA's WB-57 and University of North Dakota Citation. The observations will be compared to preliminary results of simulations using 1-D and 2-D high-resolution (100 meter) cloud resolving models. The CRMs explicitly account for cirrus microphysical development by resolving the evolving ice crystal size distribution (bin model) in time and space. Both homogeneous and heterogeneous nucleation are allowed in the model. The CRM simulations are driven using the output of regional simulations using MM5 that produces deep convection similar to what was observed. The MM5 model employs a 2 km inner grid (32 layers) over a 360 km domain, nested within a 6 km grid over a 600 km domain. Initial and boundary conditions for the 36- hour MM5 simulation are taken from NCEP Eta model analysis at 32 km resolution. Key issues to be explored are the settling of the observed anvil versus the model simulations, and comparisons of dynamical properties, such as vertical motions, occurring in the observations and models. The former provides an integrated measure of the validity of the model microphysics (fallspeed) while the latter is the key factor in forcing continued ice generation.

Description: Real clouds and clouds systems are inherently three dimensional (3D). Because of the limitations in computer resources, however, most cloud-resolving models (CRMs) today are still two-dimensional (2D). A few 3D CRMs have been used to study the response of clouds to large-scale forcing. In these 3D simulations, the model domain was small, and the integration time was 6 hours. Only recently have 3D experiments been performed for multi-day periods for tropical cloud system with large horizontal domains at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The results indicate that surface precipitation and latent heating profiles are very similar between the 2D and 3D simulations of these same cases. The reason for the strong similarity between the 2D and 3D CRM simulations is that the observed large-scale advective tendencies of potential temperature, water vapor mixing ratio, and horizontal momentum were used as the main forcing in both the 2D and 3D models. Interestingly, the 2D and 3D versions of the CRM used in CSU and U.K. Met Office showed significant differences in the rainfall and cloud statistics for three ARM cases. The major objectives of this project are to calculate and axamine: (1)the surface energy and water budgets, (2) the precipitation processes in the convective and stratiform regions, (3) the cloud upward and downward mass fluxes in the convective and stratiform regions; (4) cloud characteristics such as size, updraft intensity and lifetime, and (5) the entrainment and detrainment rates associated with clouds and cloud systems that developed in TOGA COARE, GATE, SCSMEX, ARM and KWAJEX. Of special note is that the analyzed (model generated) data sets are all produced by the same current version of the GCE model, i.e. consistent model physics and configurations. Trajectory analyse and inert tracer calculation will be conducted to identify the differences and similarities in the organization of convection between simulated 2D and 3D cloud systems.

Description: The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is used to examine the impact of various microphysical schemes, and vertical and horizontal resolution on the development, intensity and rainfall associated with mesoscale convective systems, idealized hurricanes and an ensemble of clouds. The model variables include horizontal and vertical velocities, potential temperature, perturbation pressure, turbulent kinetic energy, and mixing ratios of all water phases (vapor, liquid, and ice). The major characteristics of the GCE model are the explicit representation of warm rain and ice microphysical processes, and their complex interactions with solar and infrared radiative transfer processes. For idealized hurricane, an axisymmetric version of the GCE model was developed and used successfully to simulate the tropical cyclogenesis process using both a Rankin vortex and saturated air within a specified radius as initial conditions. For mesoscale convective systems, the 3-D version of the GCE model was used to simulate squall lines that developed in the western Pacific, South China Sea, eastern Atlantic, South America and central US. For the cloud ensemble, the GCE model was integrated for several days in order to have a good sampling of cloud statistics.

Description: Recently produced daily MODIS aerosol data for the whole year of 2001 are used to show the concentration and dynamics of aerosol over ocean and large parts of the continents. The data were validated against the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) measurements over land and ocean. Monthly averages and a movie based on the daily data are produced and used to demonstrate the spatial and temporal evolution of aerosol. The MODIS wide spectral range is used to distinguish fine smoke and pollution aerosol from coarse dust and salt. The aerosol is observed above ocean and land. The movie produced from the MODIS data provides a new dimension to aerosol observations by showing the dynamics of the system. For example in February smoke and dust emitted from the Sahel and West Africa is shown to travel to the North-East Atlantic. In April heavy dust and pollution from East Asia is shown to travel to North America. In May-June pollution and dust play a dynamical dance in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. In Aug-September smoke from South Africa and South America is shown to pulsate in tandem and to periodically to be transported to the otherwise pristine Southern part of the Southern Hemisphere. The MODIS data are compared with the GOCART model and used to estimate the first observation based direct anthropogenic radiative forcing of climate by aerosol.

Description: The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is used to examine the impact of various microphysical schemes, and vertical and horizontal resolution on the development, intensity and rainfall associated with mesoscale convective systems, idealized hurricanes and an ensemble of clouds. The model variables include horizontal and vertical velocities, potential temperature, perturbation pressure, turbulent kinetic energy, and mixing ratios of all water phases (vapor, liquid, and ice). The major characteristics of the GCE model are the explicit representation of warm rain and ice microphysical processes, and their complex interactions with solar and infrared radiative transfer processes, and with surface processes. For idealized hurricane, an axisymmetric version of the GCE model was developed and used successfully to simulate the tropical cyclogenesis process using both a Rankin vortex and saturated air within a specified radius as initial conditions. For mesoscale convective systems, the 3-D version of the GCE model was used to simulate squall lines that developed in the western Pacific, South China Sea, eastern Atlantic, South America and central U.S. For the cloud ensemble, the GCE model was integrated for several days in order to have good sampling of cloud statistics. In this paper, the sensitivities of hurricane intensity to various microphysical processes and model grid resolution will be examined. This will be mainly achieved by performing sensitivity tests using various horizontal (from 1- to 5-kilometers) and vertical resolutions (from 20- to 200-meters in the lower troposphere to 200- to 500-m in the middle and upper troposphere). Sensitivity tests using various microphysical schemes (warm rain only, and three ice with either graupel or hail) will also be performed. The PBL and diurnal variation of precipitation processes will also be evaluated. The budgets will be calculated for different regions (i.e., convective and stratiform regions).

Description: We have used numerical models to test the impact of the change in Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration on the global circulation, particularly focusing on the hydrologic cycle, namely the global cycling of water and continental recycling of water. We have run four numerical simulations using mean annual SST from the early part of the 20th century (1900-1920) and the later part (1980-2000). In addition, we vary the CO2 concentrations for these periods as well. The duration of the simulations is 15 years, and the spatial resolution is 2 degrees. We use passive tracers to study the geographical sources of water. Surface evaporation from predetermined continental and oceanic regions provides the source of water for each passive tracer. In this way, we compute the percent of precipitation of each region over the globe. This can also be used to estimate precipitation recycling. In addition, we are using the passive tracers to independently compute the global cycling of water (compared to the traditional, Q/P calculation).

Description: Tagging of water sources in atmospheric models allows for quantitative diagnostics of how water is transported from its source region to its sink region. In this presentation, we review how this methodology is applied to global atmospheric models. We will present several applications of the methodology. In one example, the regional sources of water for the North American Monsoon system are evaluated by tagging the surface evaporation. In another example, the tagged water is used to quantify the global water cycling rate and residence time. We will also discuss the need for more research and the importance of these diagnostics in water cycle studies.

Description: Precipitation Radar (PR) on board the TRMM satellite shows that the average height of 30 dBz in convective rain areas of the tropics varies significantly from one region to the other. When the convection is weak this height is shallow and when convection is strong this height extends deeper into the troposphere. The brightness temperature (Tb) measured by the microwave radiometer by itself does not reflect this nature of convection satisfactorily. Radiative transfer simulations of Tbs reveal that this could be due to the variations in the vertical distribution of optically active water and ice hydrometeors and their density, shape, and size. These variations are not coupled uniquely to the strength of the convective updrafts, and as a result the Tbs do not reflect properly the convective strength indicated by PR. Because of this deficiency in the Tbs the rain rate deduced from them differs from that of PR. For this reason, to improve the estimation of rain rate we have developed an empirical method. In this method a parameter based on the areal extent of the Tbs that exceed a certain magnitude is included along with the Tbs. Rain rate deduced with this approach is better correlated with that of PR when compared to the current Version 5 operational algorithm. The percentage of rain volume as a function of rain rate, for a given region of 5deg lat. X 5deg long. over a period of three months, deduced from this method, is also in better agreement with that of the PR.

Description: Biomass burning has been a regular practice for land clearing and land conversion in many countries, especially those in Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia. However, the unique climatology of Southeast Asia is very different than that of Africa and South America, such that large-scale biomass burning causes smoke to interact extensively with clouds during the peak-burning season of March to April. Significant global sources of greenhouse gases (e.g., CO2, CH4), chemically active gases (e.g., NO, CO, HC, CH3Br), and atmospheric aerosols are produced by biomass burning processes. These gases influence the Earth-atmosphere system, impacting both global climate and tropospheric chemistry. Some aerosols can serve as cloud condensation nuclei, which play an important role in determining cloud lifetime and precipitation, hence, altering the earth's radiation and water budget. Biomass burning also affects the biogeochemical cycling of nitrogen and carbon compounds from the soil to the atmosphere; the hydrological cycle (i.e., run off and evaporation); land surface reflectivity and emissivity; as well as ecosystem biodiversity and stability. Analyses from satellite measurements reveal that smoke is frequently present solar (emitted thermal) radiation from clouds due to smoke aerosols can be reduced (enhanced) by as much as 100 (20) W/sq m over the month of March 2000. In addition, the reduction in cloud spectral reflectance at 670 run is large enough to lead to significant errors in retrieving cloud properties (e.g., optical thickness and effective radius) from satellite measurements. The fresh water distribution in this region is highly dependent on monsoon rainfall; in fact, the predictability of the tropical climate system is much reduced during the boreal spring. Estimating the burning fuel (e.g., bark, branches, and wood), an important part of studying regional carbon cycle, may rely on utilizing a wide range of distinctive spectral features in the shortwave and longwave regions. Therefore, to accurately assess the impact of smoke aerosols in this region requires continuous observations from satellites, aircraft, networks of ground-based instruments and dedicated field experiments. A new initiative will be proposed and discussed.

Description: This portion of the Data Assimilation and Numerical Weather Prediction Benefits presentation will describe: the need for remotely sensed data, the types of observations that have been made and will be available, how satellite data have been and are being assimilated, the impact of the data on weather analysis and prediction in both the U.S and abroad and the potential impact of new observing systems on NWP. Specific observing systems that will be discussed include: satellite temperature and moisture soundings/radiances (TOVS, ATOVS, AIRS/AMSU), satellite surface winds from both passive and active microwave atmospheric motion winds (from MODIS or MISR) precipitation measurements clouds and land surface measurements (e.g. from MODIS) lidar wind profiles.

Description: Because of the extreme variability of rain rate in space and time and the difficulties with remote sensing methods of measuring rain rates, accurate determination of rainfall over large areas and time periods has long been a problem for hydrologists, meteorogists, and climatologists. A number of statistical models of rain have been developed in order to investigate the impact of rain variability on satellite remote sensing methods, validation of satellite rain products, and generation of rain maps with accompanying error estimates. These models may be useful in examining 'sub-grid scale' issues in representing precipitation in numerical mdoels. A stochastic model will first be described which can generate time-dependent high-resolution spatial rain fields with space and time correlations similar to those seen in rain data, as well as representing the presence of areas with zero rain rate and log-normally distributed rain rates where there is rain. A simpler model derived from this, formulated in the spectral domain, seems to imply fractal-like rain statistics at small scales when fit to rain data.

Description: Transport of boundary layer air to the free troposphere by cyclones during NASA's Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) experiment is investigated. Airstreams responsible for boundary layer venting are diagnosed using results from a high-resolution meteorological model (MM5) together with in situ and remotely sensed chemical data. Hourly wind data from the MM5 are used to calculate three-dimensional grids of backward air trajectories. A reverse domain filling (RDF) technique then is employed to examine the characteristics of airstreams over the computational domain, and to isolate airstreams ascending from the boundary layer to the free troposphere during the previous 36 hours. Two cases are examined in detail. Results show that airstreams responsible for venting the boundary layer differ considerably from those described by classic conceptual models and in the recent literature. In addition, airstreams sampled by the TRACE-P aircraft are found to exhibit large variability in chemical concentrations. This variability is due to differences in the boundary layer histories of individual airstreams with respect to anthropogenic sources over continental Asia and Japan. Complex interactions between successive wave cyclones also are found to be important in determining the chemical composition of the airstreams. Particularly important is the process of post-cold frontal boundary layer air being rapidly transported offshore and recirculated into ascending airstreams of upstream cyclones.

Description: Atmospheric transport over the Pacific Basin is described during NASA's Transport and Chemical Evolution Over the Pacific Experiment (TRACE-P) that was conducted between February - April 2001. The mission included extensive chemical sampling from two aircraft based primarily in Hong Kong and Yokota Air Base, Japan. Meteorological conditions during TRACE-P changed rapidly due to the seasonal winter/spring transition and the decay of prolonged ENSO cold phase (La Nina) conditions. To document these changes, TRACE-P was divided into two halves, and mean flow patterns during each half are presented and discussed. Important circulation features are the semi-permanent Siberian anticyclone and transient middle latitude cyclones that form near eastern Asia and then move eastward over the northern Pacific. Five-day backward trajectories from the various flight tracks show that air sampled by the aircraft had been transported from a variety of locations. Some parcels remained over the tropical western North Pacific during the entire period, while other important origins were Southeast Asia, Africa, and central Asia. Patterns of satellite-derived precipitation and lightning are described. TRACE-P occurs during a neutral to weak La Nina period of relatively cold sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific. Compared to climatology, the TRACE-P period exhibits deep convection located west of its typical position; however, tropospheric flow patterns do not exhibit a strong La Nina signal. Circulation patterns during TRACE-P are found to be generally similar to those during NASA's PEM WEST-B mission that occurred in the same region during February - March 1994.

Description: The 1999 Kwajalein Atoll field experiment (KWAJEX), one of several major TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) field experiments, has successfully obtained a wealth of information and observation data on tropical convective systems over the western Central Pacific region. In this paper, clouds and convective systems that developed during three active periods (Aug 7-12, Aug 17-21, and Aug 29-Sep 13) around Kwajalein Atoll site are simulated using both 2D and 3D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) models. Based on numerical results, the clouds and cloud systems are generally unorganized and short lived. These features are validated by radar observations that support the model results. Both the 2D and 3D simulated rainfall amounts and their stratiform contribution as well as the heat, water vapor, and moist static energy budgets are examined for the three convective episodes. Rainfall amounts are quantitatively similar between the two simulations, but the stratiform contribution is considerably larger in the 2D simulation. Regardless of dimension, fo all three cases, the large-scale forcing and net condensation are the two major physical processes that account for the evolution of the budgets with surface latent heat flux and net radiation solar and long-wave radiation)being secondary processes. Quantitative budget differences between 2D and 3D as well as between various episodes will be detailed.Morover, simulated radar signatures and Q1/Q2 fields from the three simulations are compared to each other and with radar and sounding observations.

Description: Increases in cloud cover and condensed water contribute more than half of the indirect aerosol effect in an ensemble of general circulation model (GCM) simulations estimating the global radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols. We use detailed simulations of marine stratocumulus clouds and airborne observations of ship tracks to show that increases in cloud cover and condensed water in reality are far less than represented by the GCM ensemble. Our results offer an explanation for recent simplified inverse climate calculations indicating that indirect aerosol effects are greatly exaggerated in GCMs.

Description: Cloud microphysics are inevitably affected by the smoke particle (CCN, cloud condensation nuclei) size distributions below the clouds. Therefore, size distributions parameterized as spectral bin microphysics are needed to explicitly study the effects of atmospheric aerosol concentration on cloud development, rainfall production, and rainfall rates for convective clouds. Recently, two detailed spectral-bin microphysical schemes were implemented into the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model. The formulation for the explicit spectral-bin microphysical processes is based on solving stochastic kinetic equations for the size distribution functions of water droplets (i.e., cloud droplets and raindrops), and several types of ice particles [i.e.,pristine ice crystals (columnar and plate-like), snow (dendrites and aggregates), graupel and frozen drops/hail]. Each type is described by a special size distribution function containing many categories (i.e. 33 bins). Atmospheric aerosols are also described using number density size-distribution functions.A spectral-bin microphysical model is very expensive from a from a computational point of view and has only been implemented into the 2D version of the GCE at the present time. The model is tested by studying the evolution of deep tropical clouds in the west Pacific warm pool region using identical thermodynamic conditions but with different concentrations of CCN: a low "clean" concentration and a high "dirty" concentration. Besides the initial differences in aerosol concentration, preliminary results indicate that the low CCN concentration case produces rainfall at the surface sooner than the high CCN case but has less cloud water mass aloft. Because the spectral-bin model explicitly calculates and allows for the examination of both the mass and number concentration of species in each size categor, a detailed analysis of the instantaneous size spectrum can be obtained for the two cases. It is shown that since the low CCN case produces fewer droplets, larger sized develop due to the greater condensational and collectional growth, leading to a broader size spectrum in comparison to the high CCN case.

Description: A procedure for the retrieval of hydrometeor latent heating from TRMM active and passive observations is presented. The procedure is based on current methods for estimating multiple-species hydrometeor profiles from TRMM observations. The species include: cloud water, cloud ice, rain, and graupel (or snow). A three-dimensional wind field is prescribed based on the retrieved hydrometeor profiles, and, assuming a steady-state, the sources and sinks in the hydrometeor conservation equations are determined. Then, the momentum and thermodynamic equations, in which the heating and cooling are derived from the hydrometeor sources and sinks, are integrated one step forward in time. The hydrometeor sources and sinks are reevaluated based on the new wind field, and the momentum and thermodynamic equations are integrated one more step. The reevalution-integration process is repeated until a steady state is reached. The procedure is tested using cloud model simulations. Cloud-model derived fields are used to synthesize TRMM observations, from which hydrometeor profiles are derived. The procedure is applied to the retrieved hydrometeor profiles, and the latent heating estimates are compared to the actual latent heating produced by the cloud model. Examples of procedure's applications to real TRMM data are also provided.

Description: Operational weather forecasting relies heavily on real time data and modeling products for forecast preparation and dissemination of significant weather information to the public. The synthesis of this information (observations and model products) by the meteorologist is facilitated by a decision support system to display and integrate the information in a useful fashion. For the NWS this system is called Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS). Over the last few years NASA has launched a series of new Earth Observation Satellites (EOS) for climate monitoring that include several instruments that provide high-resolution measurements of atmospheric and surface features important for weather forecasting and analysis. The key to the utilization of these unique new measurements by the NWS is the real time integration of the EOS data into the AWIPS system. This is currently being done in the Huntsville and Birmingham NWS Forecast Offices under the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) Program. This paper describes the use of near real time MODIS and AIRS data in AWIPS to improve the detection of clouds, moisture variations, atmospheric stability, and thermal signatures that can lead to significant weather development. The paper and the conference presentation will focus on several examples where MODIS and AIRS data have made a positive impact on forecast accuracy. The results of an assessment of the utility of these products for weather forecast improvement made at the Huntsville NWS Forecast Office will be presented.

Description: On January 12, 2003 the Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) was successfully placed into orbit. The ICESat mission carries the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS), which has a primary measurement of short-pulse laser- ranging to the Earth s surface at 1064nm wavelength at a rate of 40 pulses per second. The instrument has collected precise elevation measurements of the ice sheets, sea ice roughness and thickness, ocean and land surface elevations and surface reflectivity. The accurate geolocation of GLAS s surface returns, the spots from which the laser energy reflects on the Earth s surface, is a critical issue in the scientific application of these data. Pointing, ranging, timing and orbit errors must be compensated to accurately geolocate the laser altimeter surface returns. Towards this end, the laser range observations can be fully exploited in an integrated residual analysis to accurately calibrate these geolocation/instrument parameters. ICESat laser altimeter data have been simultaneously processed as direct altimetry from ocean sweeps along with dynamic crossovers in order to calibrate pointing, ranging and timing. The calibration methodology and current calibration results are discussed along with future efforts.

Description: Any large mass transport in the Earth system produces changes in the gravity field. Low harmonic degree components of such gravity variations have been observed by the satellite-laser-ranging (SLR) technique for the past quarter century, particularly in 52, the Earth's dynamic oblateness. 52 undergoes a slight decrease due primarily to the post-glacial rebound of the mantle, but large interannual anomalies have been observed, notably during 1998-2002. Intriguing evidences for the cause of the latter have been found in the extratropical Pacific basins, especially related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and perhaps in related land hydrology. We will examine the latest results based on ocean altimetry, sea-surface temperature, and ocean and hydrology model outputs. Without firm estimates for the steric effects (which have no gravity signal), we will point out possible underestimation of OGCMs with respect to temporal variabilities. Besides J2, SLR also derived time series for other low-degree gravity components. While the formal uncertainty of these terms is significantly higher, some of these series have significant signal that show correlation to various climatic signals. For example, there is a significant correlation of the sectoral S2,2 with the Southern Oscillation Index signifying the influence of El Nino/La Nina. Cases such as these demonstrate the utility of assessing the mass component of climate variations, and anticipate the utility of GRACE-type space gravity observations with much higher spatial resolution.

Description: The NASA/NOAA Electronic Theater presents Earth science observations from space in a spectacular way. Fly in from outer space to the conference location as well as the site of the 2002 Olympic Winter Games using data from NASA satellites and the IKONOS 'Spy Satellite". See HDTV movie Destination Earth 2002 incorporating the Olympic Zooms, NBC footage of the 2002 Olympics, the shuttle, & the best NASA/NOAA Earth science visualizations. See the latest US and international global satellite weather movies including hurricanes, typhoons & "tornadoes". See the latest visualizations from NASA/NOAA and International remote sensing missions like Terra, Aqua, GOES, GMS, SeaWiFS, & Landsat. Feel the pulse of OUT planet. See how land vegetation, ocean plankton, clouds and temperatures respond to the sun & seasons. See vortexes and currents in the global oceans that bring up the nutrients to feed tiny algae and draw the fish, whales and fisherman. See the how the ocean blooms in response to these currents and El Nino/La Nina climate changes. See the city lights, fishing fleets, gas flares and bio-mass burning of the Earth at night observed by the "night-vision" DMSP satellite. The presentation will be made using the latest HDTV and video projection technology by: Dr. Fritz Hasler NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center.

Description: NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation radar (PR) derived rainfall information will be used to estimate the four-dimensional structure of global monthly latent heating and rainfall profiles over the global tropics from December 1997 to November 2000. Rainfall, latent heating and radar reflectivity structures between El Nino (DJF 1997-98) and La Nina (DJF 1998-99) will be examined and compared. The seasonal variation of heating over various geographic locations (i.e., oceanic vs continental, Indian ocean vs west Pacific, Africa vs S. America) will also be analyzed. In addition, the relationship between rainfall, latent heating (maximum heating level), radar reflectivity and SST is examined and will be presented in the meeting. The impact of random error and bias in straitform percentage estimates from PR on latent heating profiles is studied and will also be presented in the meeting. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model is being used to simulate various mesoscale convective systems that developed in different geographic locations. Specifically, the model estimated rainfall, radar reflectivity and latent heating profiles will be compared to observational data collected from TRMM field campaigns over the South China Sea in 1998 (SCSMXX), Brazil in 1999 (TRMM- LBA), and the central Pacific in 1999 (KWAJEX). Sounding diagnosed heating budgets and radar reflectivity from these experiments can provide the means to validate (heating product) as well as improve the GCE model.

Description: Real clouds and cloud systems are inherently three-dimensional (3D). Because of the limitations in computer resources, however, most cloud-resolving models (CRMs) today are still two-dimensional (2D). A few 3D CRMs have been used to study the response of clouds to large-scale forcing. In these 3D simulations, the model domain was small, and the integration time was 6 hours. Only recently have 3D experiments been performed for multi-day periods for tropical cloud systems with large horizontal domains at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NACAR) and at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center . At Goddard, a 3D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model was used to simulate periods during TOGA COARE, SCSMEX and KWAJEX using 512 by 512 km domain (with 2 km resolution). The results indicate that surface precipitation and latent heating profiles are very similar between the 2D and 3D GCE model simulations. The reason for the strong similarity between the 2D and 3D CRM simulations is that the same observed large-scale advective tendencies of potential temperature, water vapor mixing ratio, and horizontal momentum were used as the main focusing in both the 2D and 3D models. Interestingly, the 2D and 3D versions of the CRM used at CSU showed significant differences in the rainfall and cloud statistics for three ARM cases. The major objectives of this paper are: (1) to assess the performance of the super-parameterization technique, (2) calculate and examine the surface energy (especially radiation) and water budgets, and (3) identify the differences and similarities in the organization and entrainment rates of convection between simulated 2D and 3D cloud systems.

Description: The MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) currently aboard both the Terra and Aqua satellites produces a suite of products designed to characterize global aerosol distribution, optical thickness and particle size. Never before has a space-borne instrument been able to provide such detailed information, operationally, on a nearly global basis every day. The three years of Terra-MODIS data have been validated by comparing with co-located AERONET observations of aerosol optical thickness and derivations of aerosol size parameters. Some 8000 comparison points located at 133 AERONET sites around the globe show that the MODIS aerosol optical thickness retrievals are accurate to within the pre-launch expectations. However, the validation in regions dominated by desert dust is less accurate than in regions dominated by fine mode aerosol or background marine sea salt. The discrepancy is most apparent in retrievals of aerosol size parameters over ocean. In dust situations, the MODIS algorithm tends to under predict particle size because the reflectances at top of atmosphere measured by MODIS exhibit the stronger spectral signature expected by smaller particles. This pattern is consistent with the angular and spectral signature of non-spherical particles. All possible aerosol models in the MODIS Look-Up Tables were constructed from Mie theory, assuming a spherical shape. Using a combination of MODIS and AERONET observations, in regimes dominated by desert dust, we construct phase functions, empirically, with no assumption of particle shape. These new phase functions are introduced into the MODIS algorithm, in lieu of the original options for large dust-like particles. The results will be analyzed and examined.

Description: The primary goal of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) is to use the information about distributions of precipitation to determine the four dimensional (i.e., temporal and spatial) patterns of latent heating over the whole tropical region. The Spectral Latent Heating (SLH) algorithm has been developed to estimate latent heating profiles for the TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) with a cloud- resolving model (CRM). The method uses CRM- generated heating profile look-up tables for the three rain types; convective, shallow stratiform, and anvil rain (deep stratiform with a melting level). For convective and shallow stratiform regions, the look-up table refers to the precipitation top height (PTH). For anvil region, on the other hand, the look- up table refers to the precipitation rate at the melting level instead of PTH. For global applications, it is necessary to examine the universality of the look-up table. In this paper, we compare the look-up tables produced from the numerical simulations of cloud ensembles forced with the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Response Experiment (COARE) data and the GARP Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE) data. There are some notable differences between the TOGA-COARE table and the GATE table, especially for the convective heating. First, there is larger number of deepest convective profiles in the TOGA-COARE table than in the GATE table, mainly due to the differences in SST. Second, shallow convective heating is stronger in the TOGA COARE table than in the GATE table. This might be attributable to the difference in the strength of the low-level inversions. Third, altitudes of convective heating maxima are larger in the TOGA COARE table than in the GATE table. Levels of convective heating maxima are located just below the melting level, because warm-rain processes are prevalent in tropical oceanic convective systems. Differences in levels of convective heating maxima probably reflect differences in melting layer heights. We are now extending our study to simulations of other field experiments (e.g. SCSMEX and ARM) in order to examine the universality of the look-up table. The impact of look-up tables on the retrieved latent heating profiles will also be assessed.

Description: Analyses of data on clouds, winds, and surface heat fluxes show that the transient behavior of basin-wide large-scale circulation has a significant influence on the warm pool sea surface temperature (SST). Trade winds converge to regions of the highest SST in the equatorial western Pacific. These regions have the largest cloud cover and smallest wind speed. Both surface solar heating and evaporative cooling are weak. The reduced evaporative cooling due to weakened winds exceeds the reduced solar heating due to enhanced cloudiness. The result is a maximum surface heating in the strong convective and high SST regions. Data also show that the maximum surface heating in strong convective regions is interrupted by transient atmospheric and oceanic circulation. Due to the seasonal variation of the insolation at the top of the atmosphere, trade winds and clouds also experience seasonal variations. Regions of high SST and low-level convergence follow the Sun, where the surface heating is a maximum. As the Sun moves away from a convective region, the strong trade winds set in, and the evaporative cooling enhances, resulting in a net cooling of the surface. During an El Nino, the maximum SST and convective region shifts eastward from the maritime continent to the equatorial central Pacific. Following the eastward shift of the maximum SST, the region of maximum cloudiness and surface heating also shift eastward. As the atmospheric and oceanic circulation returns to normal situations, the trade winds increase and the surface heating decreases. We conclude that the evaporative cooling associated with the seasonal and interannual variations of trade winds is one of the major factors that modulate the SST distribution of the Pacific warm pool.

Description: A major uncertainty in understanding the causes of the current rate of sea level rise is the potential contributions from mass imbalances of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Estimates of the current mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet are derived from surface- elevation changes obtained from 9 years of ERS - 1 & 2 radar altimeter data. Elevation time-series are created from altimeter crossovers among 90-day data periods on a 50 km grid to 81.5 S. The time series are fit with a multivariate linear/sinusoidal function to give the average rate of elevation change (dH/dt). On the major Rome-Filchner, Ross, and Amery ice shelves, the W d t are small or near zero. In contrast, the ice shelves of the Antarctic Peninsula and along the West Antarctic coast appear to be thinning significantly, with a 23 +/- 3 cm per year surface elevation decrease on the Larsen ice shelf and a 65 +/- 4 cm per year decrease on the Dotson ice shelf. On the grounded ice, significant elevation decreases are obtained over most of the drainage basins of the Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers in West Antarctica and inland of Law Dome in East Antarctica. Significant elevation increases are observed within about 200 km of the coast around much of the rest of the ice sheet. Farther inland, the changes are a mixed pattern of increases and decreases with increases of a few centimeters per year at the highest elevations of the East Antarctic plateau. The derived elevation changes are combined with estimates of the bedrock uplift from several models to provide maps of ice thickness change. The ice thickness changes enable estimates of the ice mass balances for the major drainage basins, the overall mass balance, and the current contribution of the ice sheet to global sea level change.

Description: Beginning in February 2003, the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) provides global coverage lidar measurement of the height distribution of aerosol in the atmosphere. The characteristic and value of the unique data will be presented. The instrument is a basic backscatter lidar that operates at two wavelengths, 532 and 1064 nm. The mission data products for atmospheric observations include the calibrated, observed, attenuated backscatter cross section for cloud and aerosol; height detection for multiple cloud layers; planetary boundary layer height; cirrus and aerosol optical depth and the height distribution of aerosol and cloud scattering cross section profiles. The data is expected to significantly enhance knowledge of the distribution, transport and influence of atmospheric aerosol and thin clouds. Initial results from the 1064 nm channel show strong aerosol loading in many regions of the world. From the initial performance and verification experiments, aerosol backscatter cross sections down to sever times 10(exp -6)I/m-sr are detected. In August the 532 nm channel will also provide aerosol profiles but with a projected order of magnitude more sensitivity, and full data products including aerosol optical depths will be generated. Results from these first several months of operation will be presented.

Description: Climate change may influence tropospheric ozone and OH via several main pathways: (1) altering chemistry via temperature and humidity changes, (2) changing ozone and precursor sources via surface emissions, stratosphere-troposphere exchange, and light- ning, and (3) affecting trace gas sinks via the hydrological cycle and dry deposition. We report results from a set of coupled chemistry-climate model simulations designed to systematically study these effects. We compare the various effects with one another and with past and projected future changes in anthropogenic and natural emissions of ozone precursors. We find that white the overall impact of climate on ozone is probably small compared to emission changes, some significant seasonal and regional effects are apparent. The global effect on hydroxyl is quite large, however, similar in size to the effect of emission changes. Additionally, we show that many of the chemistry-climate links that are not yet adequately modeled are potentially important.

Description: The middle atmosphere is an important component of the climate system, primarily because of the radiative forcing of ozone. Middle atmospheric ozone can change, over long times, because of changes in the abundance of anthropogenic pollutants which catalytically destroy it, and because of the temperature sensitivity of kinetic reaction rates. There is thus a complex interaction between ozone, involving chemical and climatic mechanisms. One question of interest is how ozone will change over the next decades , as the "greenhouse-gas cooling" of the middle atmosphere increases but the concentrations of chlorine species decreases (because of policy changes). concerns the climate biases in current middle atmosphere-climate models, especially their ability to simulate the correct seasonal cycle at high latitudes, and the existence of temperature biases in the global mean. A major obstacle when addressing this question This paper will present a summary of recent results from the "GCM-Reality Intercomparison Project for SPARC" (GRIPS) initiative. A set of middle atmosphere-climate models has been compared, identifying common biases. Mechanisms for these biases are being studied in some detail, including off-line assessments of the radiation transfer codes and coordinated studies of the impacts of gravity wave drag due to sub-grid-scale processes. ensemble of models will be presented, along with numerical experiments undertaken with one or more models, designed to investigate the mechanisms at work in the atmosphere. The discussion will focus on dynamical and radiative mechanisms in the current climate, but implications for coupled ozone chemistry and the future climate will be assessed.

Description: The Goddard Lidar Observatory for Winds (GLOW) is a mobile direct detection Doppler lidar system hich uses the double edge technique to measure the Doppler shift of the molecular backscattered laser signal at a wavelength of 355 nm. In the spring of 2002 GLOW was deployed to the western Oklahoma profiling site (36 deg 33.500 min N, 100 deg 36.371 min W) to participate in the International H2O Project (MOP). During the MOP campaign over 240 hours of wind profiles were obtained with the GLOW lidar in support of a variety of scientific investigations.

Description: The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) launched the Terra satellite in December 1999, as part of the Earth Science Enterprise promotion of interdisciplinary studies of the integrated Earth system. Aqua, the second satellite from the series of EOS constellation, was launched in May 2002. Both satellites carry the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument. MODIS data are processed at the Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, and then archived and distributed by the Distributed Active Archive Centers (DAACs). Data products from the MODIS sensors present new challenges to remote sensing scientists due to specialized production level, data format, and map projection. MODIS data are distributed as calibrated radiances and as higher level products such as: surface reflectance, water-leaving radiances, ocean color and sea surface temperature, land surface kinetic temperature, vegetation indices, leaf area index, land cover, snow cover, sea ice extent, cloud mask, atmospheric profiles, aerosol properties, and many other geophysical parameters. MODIS data are stored in HDF- EOS format in both swath format and in several different map projections. This tutorial guides users through data set characteristics as well as search and order interfaces, data unpacking, data subsetting, and potential applications of the data. A CD-ROM with sample data sets, and software tools for working with the data will be provided to the course participants.

Description: Estimates of surface precipitation and the associated vertical latent heating structure can be retrieved from space-borne passive microwave sensors such as the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I). Studies have shown that assimilation of microwave rain rates can improve the quality of global analysis and forecast. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) centers are beginning to make operational use of these data. In the next few years, there will be a gradual increase in microwave rain products available from operational and research satellites, culminating to a target constellation of 9 satellites to provide global rain measurements every 3 hours with the proposed Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission to be launched around 2007. Realizing the full potential of these observations in data assimilation will require continued advances in retrieval algorithms, assimilation techniques, and model physics. I present results from two research efforts at NASA GSFC. The first is on the assimilation of tropical precipitation using temperature/moisture tendency corrections within a continuous variational assimilation framework to improve analyses and forecasts produced by the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global data assimilation system. Results show that assimilation of TMI and SSM/I rain rates improves not only precipitation and moisture, but also the related clouds, radiation energy fluxes, and large-scale circulations in GEOS analyses. The improved analyses also yield better short-range forecasts, quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) threat scores, and storm track predictions. The second part consists of results from exploratory experiments on variational assimilation of convective and stratiform latent heating profiles within the general framework of model parameter estimation as a way to identify systematic model errors and optimize physical paremeterization schemes in global forecast and climate models.

Description: The Micro-Pulse Lidar NETwork (MPLNET) is comprised of micro-pulse lidars (MPL) stationed around the globe to provide measurements of aerosol and cloud vertical distribution on a continuous basis. MPLNET sites are co-located with sunphotometers in the AErosol Robotic NETwork (AERONET) to provide joint measurements of aerosol optical depth, size, and other inherent optical properties. The IPCC 2001 report discusses . the importance of obtaining routine measurements of aerosol vertical structure, especially for absorbing aerosols. MPLNET provides exactly this sort of measurement, including calculation of aerosol extinction profiles, in a near real-time basis for all sites in the network. In order to obtain aerosol profiles, near range signal returns (0-6 km) must be accurately measured by the MPL. This measurement is complicated by the instrument s overlap range: Le., the minimum distance at which returning signals are completely in the instrument s field-of-view (FOV). Typical MPL overlap distances are large, between 5 - 6 km, due to the narrow FOV of the MPL receiver. A function describing the MPL overlap must be determined and used to correct signals in this range. Currently, overlap functions for MPLNET are determined using horizontal MPL measurements along a path with 10-1 5 km clear line-of-sight and a homogenous atmosphere. These conditions limit the location and ease in which successful overlaps can be obtained. Furthermore, the current MPLNET process of correcting for overlap increases the uncertainty and bias error for the near range signals and the resulting aerosol extinction profiles. To address these issues, an alternative overlap correction method using a small-diameter, wide FOV receiver is being considered for potential use in MPLNET. The wide FOV receiver has a much shorter overlap distance and will be used to calculate the overlap function of the MPL receiver. This approach has a significant benefit in that overlap corrections could be obtained without the need for horizontal measurements. A review of both overlap methods is presented, including a discussion of the impact on reducing the uncertainty and bias error in MPLNET aerosol profiles.

Description: Tropospheric ozone is important to the environment, because it acts as a strong oxidant to control the concentrations of many reduced gases (methane, carbon monoxide, ... ), its radiative forcing plays a significant role in the greenhouse effect, and direct contact with ozone is harmful to human health. Tropospheric ozone, whose main sources are intrusion from the stratosphere and chemical production from source gases associated with urban pollution or biomass burning, varies on a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Its transport and chemistry can be influenced by weather, seasonal, or multiannual variability. Despite the importance of tropospheric ozone, it contributes only about 10% of the total ozone loading in the atmosphere. Consequently, satellite instruments lose sensitivity below the stratospheric ozone peak, and provide little information about middle and lower tropospheric ozone. This talk will discuss recent modifications made to the satellite ozone data assimilation system at NASA's Data Assimilation Office (DAO) in order to provide better tropospheric ozone columns and profiles. We use a version of the system that assimilates only the data from the Solar Backscatter UltraViolet/2 (SBUV/2) instrument. The quality of the assimilated ozone in the tropical troposphere is evaluated by comparison with independent observations obtained from the Southern Hemispheric Additional Ozonesondes (SHADOZ) network. It is shown that the quality of ozone fields is sensitive to the winds used in the transport model. Increasing the vertical resolution of the model also has a beneficial impact. The assimilated ozone in the lower troposphere was substantially improved by inclusion of tropospheric ozone production, loss, and dry deposition rates from the Harvard GEOS-CHEM model. The mechanisms behind these results will be examined and the implications for our understanding of tropospheric ozone will be discussed.

Description: Cloud thickness and photon mean-free-path together determine the scale of "radiative smoothing" of cloud fluxes and radiances. This scale is observed as a change in the spatial spectrum of cloud radiances, and also as the "halo size" seen by off beam lidar such as THOR and WAIL. Such of beam lidar returns are now being used to retrieve cloud layer thickness and vertical scattering extinction profile. We illustrate with recent measurements taken at the Oklahoma ARM site, comparing these to the-dependent 3D simulations. These and other measurements sensitive to 3D transfer in clouds, coupled with Monte Carlo and other 3D transfer methods, are providing a better understanding of the dependence of radiation on cloud inhomogeneity, and to suggest new retrieval algorithms appropriate for inhomogeneous clouds. The international "Intercomparison of 3D Radiation Codes" or I3RC, program is coordinating and evaluating the variety of 3D radiative transfer methods now available, and to make them more widely available. Information is on the Web at: http://i3rc.gsfc.nasa.gov/. Input consists of selected cloud fields derived from data sources such as radar, microwave and satellite, and from models involved in the GEWEX Cloud Systems Studies. Output is selected radiative quantities that characterize the large-scale properties of the fields of radiative fluxes and heating. Several example cloud fields will be used to illustrate. I3RC is currently implementing an "open source" 3d code capable of solving the baseline cases. Maintenance of this effort is one of the goals of a new 3DRT Working Group under the International Radiation Commission. It is hoped that the 3DRT WG will include active participation by land and ocean modelers as well, such as 3D vegetation modelers participating in RAMI.

Description: The atmospheric impacts of tropical fires came to attention in the 1970's and there has been interest in the connection between these fires and ozone since about 1980. Photochemically reactive gases released by fires (e.g. NO, CO, volatile organic carbon) interact as they do in an urban environment to form ozone. Tropical meteorology also plays a part in tropospheric ozone distributions in the tropics - through large-scale circulation, deep convection, regional phenomena (West African and Asian monsoon) - and variations associated with El-Nino and the Quasi- biennial Oscillation have been reported. This Poster is an overview of observations, taken from satellite and from ozone soundings, that illustrate regional influences and intercontinental-range ozone transport in the tropics.