ALBERT

Description: We computed high-resolution (1º latitude x  1º longitude) seasonal and annual nitrous oxide (N2O) concentration fields for the Arabian Sea surface layer using a database containing more than 2400 values measured between December 1977 and July 1997. N2O concentrations are highest during the southwest (SW) monsoon along the southern Indian continental shelf. Annual emissions range from 0.33 to 0.70 Tg N2O and are dominated by fluxes from coastal regions during the SW and northeast monsoons. Our revised estimate for the annual N2O flux from the Arabian Sea is much more tightly constrained than the previous consensus derived using averaged in-situ data from a smaller number of studies. However, the tendency to focus on measurements in locally restricted features in combination with insufficient seasonal data coverage leads to considerable uncertainties of the concentration fields and thus in the flux estimates, especially in the coastal zones of the northern and eastern Arabian Sea. The overall mean relative error of the annual N2O emissions from the Arabian Sea was estimated to be at least 65%.

Description: The heterogeneous reaction SO2 + H2O2   H2SO4 on ice at 228 K has been studied in a low temperature coated-wall flow tube. With H2O2 in excess of SO2, the loss of SO2 on an ice surface is time dependent with the reaction most efficient on a freshly exposed surface. The deactivation of the surface arises because the protons formed in the reaction inhibit the dissociation of adsorbed SO2. This lowers the surface concentrations of HSO3-, a participant in the rate-determining step of the oxidation mechanism. For a fixed SO2 partial pressure of 1.4 x 10-4 Pa, the reaction probabilities for SO2 loss on a freshly exposed surface scale linearly with H2O2 partial pressures between 2.7 x 10-3 and 2.7 x 10-2 Pa because the H2O2 surface coverage is unsaturated in this regime. Conversely, the reaction probabilities decrease as the partial pressure of SO2 is raised from 2.7 x 10-5 to 1.3 x 10-3 Pa, for a fixed H2O2 partial pressure of 8.7 x 10-3 Pa. This is expected if the rate determining step for the mechanism involves HSO3- rather than SO2. It may also arise to some degree if there is competition between gas phase SO2 and H2O2 for adsorption sites. The reaction is sufficiently fast that the lifetime of SO2 within ice clouds could be controlled by this heterogeneous reaction and not by the gas-phase reaction with OH.

Description: A two-dimensional dynamic cloud model with detailed microphysics and a spectral treatment of gas scavenging was used to simulate trace gas vertical redistribution in precipitating continental and maritime clouds. A general picture of gas transport in such clouds has been developed by examining the sensitivity to a range of parameters, including cloud dynamic and microphysical structure, gas solubility, and the method of calculating gas uptake by droplets. Gases with effective Henry's law constants (H*) ranging from zero to greater than 109 mol dm-3 atm-1 were simulated. The abundance of highly soluble gases in the uppermost parts (top 1 km or so) of continental precipitating clouds was found to be as much as 20-50% of that of the insoluble tracer under conditions where the mixing ratio of the tracer was approximately 5% of its boundary layer value. The abundance of highly soluble gases was approximately 6 times higher in the uppermost parts of the continental cloud than in the maritime cloud, due to differences in wet removal efficiency in the two cloud types. A fully kinetic calculation of gas uptake, as opposed to assuming Henry's law equilibrium, was found to have a significant effect on gas transport, with the abundance of highly soluble gases in the uppermost parts of the cloud being a factor of 5 lower in the equilibrium simulations. The temperature dependence of the Henry's law constant was also found to be an important parameter in determining the abundance of soluble gases at cloud top, with the abundance of moderately soluble gases being as much as 70% lower when the temperature dependence of H* was included. This reduction in abundance was found to be equivalent to increasing the temperature-independent solubility by a factor of 7. The vertical transport of soluble gases could be parameterized in large-scale models by normalizing against the transport of tracers. However, our results suggest that there is no straightforward scaling factor, particularly if small concentrations of highly soluble gases in the upper troposphere need to be defined.

Description: A novel method to characterize the organic composition of aerosol particles has been developed. The method is based on organic vapor interaction with aerosol particles and it has been named an Organic Tandem Differential Mobility Analyzer (OTDMA). The OTDMA method has been tested for inorganic (sodium chloride and ammonium sulfate) and organic (citric acid and adipic acid) particles. Growth curves of the particles have been measured in ethanol vapor and as a comparison in water vapor as a function of saturation ratio. Measurements in water vapor show that sodium chloride and ammonium sulfate as well as citric acid particles grow at water saturation ratios (S) of 0.8 and above, whereas adipic acid particles do not grow at S

Description: The global mean OH concentration ([OH]GM) has been used as an indicator of the atmospheric oxidizing efficiency and its changes over time. It is also used for evaluating the performance of atmospheric chemistry models by comparing with other models or with observationally-based reference [OH]GM levels. We contend that the treatment of this quantity in the recent literature renders it problematic for either of these purposes. Several different methods have historically been used to compute [OH]GM: weighting by atmospheric mass or volume, or by the reaction with CH4 or CH3CCl3. In addition, these have been applied over different domains to represent the troposphere. While it is clear that this can lead to inconsistent [OH]GM values, to date there has been no careful assessment of the differences expected when [OH]GM is computed using various weightings and domains. Here these differences are considered using four different 3D OH distributions, along with the weightings mentioned above applied over various atmospheric domains. We find that the [OH]GM values computed based on a given distribution but using different domains for the troposphere can result in differences of 10% or more, while different weightings can lead to differences of up to 30%, comparable to the uncertainty which is commonly stated for [OH]GM or its trend. Thus, at present comparing [OH]GM values from different studies does not provide clearly interpretable information about whether the OH amounts are actually similar or not, except in the few cases where the same weighting and domain have been used in both studies. We define the atmospheric oxidizing efficiency of OH with respect to a given gas as the inverse of the lifetime of that gas, and show that this is directly proportional to the [OH]GM value weighted by the reaction with that gas, where the proportionality constant depends on the temperature distribution and the domain. We find that the airmass-weighted and volume-weighted [OH]GM values, in contrast, are generally poor indicators of the global atmospheric oxidizing efficiency with respect to gases such as CH4 and CH3CCl3 with a strong temperature dependence in their reaction with OH. We recommend that future studies provide both the airmass-weighted and the CH4-reaction-weighted [OH]GM values, over the domain from the surface to a climatological tropopause. The combination of these values helps to reduce the chance of coincidental agreement between very different OH distributions. Serious evaluations of modeled OH concentrations would best be done with airmass-weighted [OH]GM broken down into atmospheric sub-compartments, especially focusing on the tropics, where the atmospheric oxidizing efficiency is the greatest for most gases.

Description: The kinetics of the title reactions were investigated using the laser photolysis - resonance fluorescence method, employing the sequential two-photon dissociation of NO2 in the presence of H2  as the OH source. The 298 K rate constant for OH + C3H8 was found to be (1.15 ± 0.1) × 10-12 cm3 s-1, in excellent agreement with the literature recommendation, and with a separate determination using HNO3  photolysis at 248 nm as the OH source. The 298 K rate constants for OH + n - C3H7I and  i - C3H7I  were measured for the first time and found to be (1.47 ± 0.08) and (1.22 ± 0.06) × 10-12 cm3 s-1, respectively. The errors include an assessment of systematic error due to concentration measurement, which, for the propyl-iodides was minimised by on-line UV-absorption spectroscopy. These results show that reaction with OH is an important sink for  n - C3H7I and  i - C3H7I, which has implications for the reactive iodine budget of the marine boundary layer.

Description: At Mace Head, Eire, in the coastal East Atlantic, diiodomethane has been identified as an important precursor of iodine oxide radicals. Peak concentrations of both CH2I2 and IO at low water indicate that the intertidal region is a strong source of organo-iodines. Atmospheric measurements of CH2I2 made in marine air are compared with the concentrations predicted by a 2-dimensional model incorporating horizontal and vertical dispersion of surface emissions. The model shows that micrometeorological variability, proximity of the site to emissions, and photolysis all play important roles in determining the CH2I2 concentrations at Mace Head. In addition to a tidal-height dependent intertidal flux, which was estimated from seaweed production data, a contribution from offshore (non-local) sources was required in order to reproduce the strong signature of photolysis in the CH2I2 observations. A combination of an offshore flux and an intertidal flux (of up to 1.4 × 109 molecules cm-2s-1 at low water) results in good agreement between the measured and modelled CH2I2 concentrations. Although this study does not necessarily infer emission of CH2I2 from the open ocean, it suggests that air-sea exchange of CH2I2 in coastal waters does occur.

Description: As part of the German Research Foundation (DFG) project “Land Use Concepts for Marginal Regions”, since 1997 we have made analyses of the seed bank of 22 cultivated allotments, as well as of 15 meadow/pasture and 16 fallow allotments on former arable land of the Lahn-Dill Highlands, a marginal cultivated landscape in Hesse, Germany. One aim of this study is to determine according to which dynamic laws the seed bank of arable-land weeds is depleted after cultivation is abandoned. Depending on the intensity of the arable land use, the seed banks of rankers and cambisols that are presently still cultivated contain up to 1 004 800 seeds of arable-land species capable of germination m−3. Soils that were last cultivated less than ten years ago have much lower seed densities, while the seed bank of arable-land species is largely exhausted after only ca. 20 yr. This points to an exponential depletion of the seed bank of arable-land species and their abundance over time. On the basis of the present results,

Description: Spartina anglica (C. E. Hubbard) is a relatively new invasive perennial grass species in Ireland. It is well adapted to the intertidal mudflat environment and forms mono-specific swards. There have been concerns about its potential to impact negatively the ecosystems of mud flats and salt marshes. This ongoing project investigates the ecological effects of S. anglica, and its control, on the mudflats and saltmarsh at Bull Island, and the implications for management of S. anglica. The diversity and density of the macro-invertebrate infauna and some physical factors of the sediment were compared in: a) clumps of S. anglica, b) areas vegetated by Salicornia spp., c) an adjacent area of bare mud, and d) an unvegetated area. Presence of S. anglica had a significant effect on the density and diversity of macro-invertebrate infauna species. The results suggest that clumps of S. anglica can provide a habitat that supports a macro-invertebrate infauna as abundant and species rich as areas vegetated by Salicornia spp.

Description: The edge effect, generated by the interaction of patch and matrix, is preferably described by the interior-to-edge ratio of the patch. This ratio quantifies the extent of microclimatic changes at the boundary, and influences nature reserve design. As shown for elliptical and rectangular shapes, large and isodiametric patch designs are characterized by high interior-to-edge ratios. Different patch geometries can however lead to similar values of the ratio. A reference value, based upon the patch size, is therefore proposed to normalize the ratio to its maximum value, as observed for a perfectly isodiametric patch. The effect of patch geometry on the normalized ratio is discussed, as well as patch ranking based upon both the simple ratio and the normalized interior-to-edge ratio. An example is included using forest patches in the Belgian Campine region to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed index.

Description: Many local populations of the natterjack toad Bufo calamita in Germany are endangered. Due to the fragmentation and destruction of natural habitats by man, toads have often been forced to switch to secondary habitats. The permanent existence of these habitats is uncertain. Habitat and area requirements have been investigated in various parts of Germany in recent years. Our study uses field observations from sites in Halle (Saxony-Anhalt) and List (Schleswig-Holstein) as a basis for analyses of the population dynamics under different environmental conditions. Deterministic trends of these populations are calculated with the help of a Leslie matrix consisting of average parameters for mortality and reproduction. For a more thorough analysis we use a stochastic simulation model in order to assess survival probabilities of local toad populations. This model also takes into account environmental fluctuations affecting mortality and reproduction. Using scenarios from different locations, a sensitivity analysis of the parameters indicates which management options are the most promising to preserve a population. Our results indicate that the mortality rates of juveniles and the availability of spawning ground have the greatest influence on a population’s survival. Consequently, habitat management should focus on these aspects. In addition, we investigate the risk of extinction for different reproductive strategies. Natterjack toad populations observed in the field actually follow a strategy with three breeding periods. We find that this strategy supports the survival of the population better than strategies with less periods, which are more likely to result in a complete breeding failure during one season.

Description: To understand associations between habitat, individual behaviour, and population development of solitary bees we developed an individual-based model. This model is based on field observations of Osmia rufa (L) (Apoideae: Megachilidae) and describes population dynamics of solitary bees. Model rules are focused on maternal investment, in particular on the female’s individual decisions about sex and size of progeny. In the present paper, we address the effect of habitat quality on population size and sex ratio. We examine how food availability and the risk of parasitism influence long-term population development. It can be shown how population properties result from individual maternal investment which is described as a functional response to fluctuations of environmental conditions. We found that habitat quality can be expressed in terms of cell construction time. This interface factor influences the rate of open cell parasitism as the risk for a brood cell to be parasitized is positively correlated with the time of its construction. Under conditions of scarce food and under resulting long provision times even low parasitism rates lead to a high extinction risk of the population, whereas in rich habitats probabilities of extinction are low even for high rates of parasitism. For a given level of food and parasitism there is an optimum time for cell construction which minimizes the extinction risk of the population. Model results demonstrate that under fluctuating environmental conditions, decreasing habitat quality leads to a decrease in population size but also to rapid shifts in sex ratio.

Description: Empirical data on many species of terrestrial orchids suggest that their between-year flowering pattern is extremely irregular and unpredictable. A long search for the reason has hitherto proved inconclusive. Here we summarise and critically review the hypotheses that were put forward as explanations of this phenomenon: irregular flowering was attributed to costs associated with sexual reproduction, to herbivory, or to the chaotic behaviour of the system represented by difference equations describing growth of the vegetative and reproductive organs. None of these seems to explain fully the events of a transition from flowering one year to sterility or absence the next year. Data on the seasonal growth of leaves and inflorescence of two terrestrial orchid species, Epipactis albensis and Dactylorhiza fuchsii and our previous results are then used here to fill gaps in what has been published until now and to test alternative explanations of the irregular flowering patterns of orchids.

Description: Spatial patterns of seedling distribution and diversity were analysed in small fragments of holly Ilex aquifolium L. woodlands and in their surrounding areas. Two sampling locations with similar structure were selected for this study: Oncala and Robregordo. They consist of nearly monospecific Ilex stands surrounded by grasslands with high scrub abundance. The seedling appearance of woody species was quantified from March to November 1998. Sampled areas were: 1) closed holly canopy; 2) open holly canopy or small forest gaps; 3) holly woodland edge; 4) surrounding grassland; 5) under isolated fleshy-fruited shrubs scattered over the grassland; 6) under dry-fruited shrubs and 7) the closest forest to the holly woodland. Additionally, a pine forest at a distance of 20 km from Oncala was sampled. In every area ten permanent 50 × 50 cm quadrats were fixed for monthly seedling control. The highest germination density occurs under the holly woodland, especially in closed canopy areas. Nevertheless, these closed woodlands neither maintain a great quantity of surviving seedlings nor a high diversity. Seedling density is considerable in canopy gaps, shrubs and forest edge, and these habitats have greater diversity values than understorey habitats. Fleshy-fruited shrubs maintain higher seedling densities and diversity than dry-fruited shrubs. Woody seedlings are rare over the grassland. The three non-holly forests studied have very similar seedling densities and diversity values, higher than those under closed-canopy holly. Regional differences are important for the numbers of seedlings surviving from previous years, which are scareer in Robregordo. However, little difference is observed in spatial patterns of seedling diversity between the two locations. We discuss a number of processes affecting seed rain density and differential mortality rates that could account for these spatial patterns, namely competition for light inside the woodlands, facilitation under nurse shrubs, or competition escape at the edge. Environmental factors such as moisture stress may play a role in regional differences.

Description: In the Cantabrian area (northwest Spain) Pinus stands occupy many of the original shrub communities that have been considered unproductive. These Pinus stands represent the vegetation which is most affected by fire. Regeneration after fire may occur in different ways: by resprouting or by germination or both. Germination was the only regeneration mechanism in Pinus species that appeared in these areas. The aim of this study is to determine the role of the soil seed bank in regeneration in this type of ecosystem. In order to carry out the study, three communities dominated by Pinus sylvestris which had suffered wildfires were chosen. In each of the three experimental sites of Pinus sylvestris stands the seed bank composition and above-ground vegetation were studied. The results allowed three species groups in the seed bank to be differentiated: those favoured by fire, amongst which some hardseeds, mainly belonging to Cistaceae and Leguminosae, were found; another group formed by outsider or opportunist species from outside the community and which used anemochory as their main dispersion mechanism; and the third group formed by those negatively affected, amongst which were species using vegetative resprout as the main regeneration mechanism. The species of greatest quantitative importance in the seed bank was Erica australis. In general, anemochorous species were predominant in the soil seed bank. During the first stages of succession chamaephytes were dominant and in the two years after fire therophytes were. No great similarity was observed between the bank composition and field vegetation from a qualitative viewpoint, due to differences in the presence of seeds of outsider plants in the bank and to the significance of the resprouting species in the field.

Description: The impacts of non-native Norway spruce plantation on the abundance and species richness of carabids were studied in the Bükk National Park in Hungary, central Europe. Pitfall catches from recently established (5 yr old), young (15 yr after planting), middle-aged (30 yr after planting), old Norway spruce Picea abies plantation (50 yr after planting), and a native submontane beech forest (Fagetum sylvaticae) as a control stand were compared. Our results showed that deciduous forest species decreased significantly in abundance in the plantations, and appeared in high abundance only in the native beech forest. Furthermore, open habitat species increased remarkably in abundance in the recently established plantation. Carabids were significantly more abundant and species rich in the native forest than in the plantations, while differences were not significant among the plantations. Multiple regression between the abundance and species richness of carabids and twelve environmental measurements showed that pH of the soil, herb cover and density of the carabids’ prey had a significant effect in determining abundance and species richness. Our results showed that plantation of non-native Norway spruce species had a detrimental effect on the composition of carabid communities and no regeneration could be observed during the growth of plantations even 50 yr after the establishment. This emphasises the importance of an active nature management practice to facilitate the recolonization of the native species.

Description: One of the major goals in nature conservation practice is to optimise the timing or the method of treatments or both. We studied the response of the Auchenorrhyncha (Insecta: Homoptera) assemblage to annual mowing in three different locations along an elevation gradient of a mesic grassland. Several weeks after mowing, the total number of imagoes and larvae decreased considerably, and the relative abundance differences between populations at different elevations also decreased, reflecting the density dependent effect of this treatment. The rate of changes in species composition was greatest in the microhabitats with more comfortable microclimates, in the opposite direction of the alteration of abundance, perhaps interfering with the migration. By the next spring the fauna of the wettest habitat proved to be the most sensitive to mowing and the most different from the others. The overall similarity of the insect communities increased, i.e. the community-level biodiversity decreased due to homogenising effect of mowing. In a heteromorphous habitat, the variability of spatio-temporal dynamics of the populations makes it impossible to find either single optimal time or optimal rotation plan for treatment based on the habitat types. For this reason, we suggest mowing in stripes parallel to the elevation gradient, which would mean synchronous treatment of each microhabitat instead of randomly chosen patches, where the execution is problematic. It is easier to keep the ratio of treated to untreated areas at 50%. Stripes should be narrow enough to provide the possibility of migration to favourable habitat patches, and should not hinder mechanical mowing. Suggested width of stripes is 10–15 m for Auchenorrhyncha.

Description: Until the 1950s, American plant ecology was dominated by the community-unit theory – that plants grow together in definite communities which constitute the proper subject matter for ecological research. Only H. A. Gleason proposed the alternative "individualistic hypothesis". In the 1950s the nature of the plant community was re-examined in a number of field studies. John Curtis led a re-assessment of ecological theory. This paper provides a historical analysis of aspects of his work. Born in 1913, Curtis did his doctorate at the Univ. of Wisconsin, under Benjamin Duggar, receiving a fine training in physiological research. In 1941, he made a career shift toward community ecology. Dubious of the validity of the concept of the plant community, Curtis began an intensive investigation of the vegetation of Wisconsin. American ecology was in an insecure position, isolated from the mainstream of biological science. Curtis’s ambition was reform – to establish ecology as "a science rather than an art". The improvement of research methodology was a major concern. Curtis and his colleagues found that the best way to arrange the data from their study stands was into a sequence of continuous variation, each dominant gradually peaking in frequency along a continuum. There were no distinct "associations" of species. By the 1970s, the continuum, which Curtis presented as a vindication of Gleason, was accepted as a generally valid description of mature vegetation.

Description: During 1997 and 1998, we have tested the edge-effect for carabids along oak-hornbeam forest-grass transects using pitfall traps in Hungary. Our hypothesis was that the diversity of carabids will be higher in the forest edge than in the forest interior. We also focused on the characteristic species of the habitats along the transects and the relationships between their distribution and the biotic and abiotic factors. Our results proved that there was a significant edge effect on the studied carabid communities: the Shannon diversity increased significantly along the transects from the forest towards the grass. The diversity of the carabids were significantly higher in the forest edge and in the grass than in the forest interior. The carabids of the forest, the forest edge and the grass are separated from each other by principal coordinates analysis and by indicator species analysis (IndVal), suggesting that each of the three habitats has a distinct species assemblages. There were 5 distinctive groups of carabids: 1) habitat generalists, 2) forest generalists, 3) species of the open area, 4) forest edge species, and 5) forest specialists. It was demonstrated by multiple regression analyses, that the relative air moisture, temperature of the ground, the cover of leaf litter, herbs, shrubs and canopy cover, abundance of the carabids’ preys are the most important factors determining the diversity and spatial pattern of carabids along the studied transects.

Description: The scientific problems posed by the Earth's fluid envelope, and its atmosphere, oceans, and the land surface that interacts with them are central to major socio-economic and political concerns as we move into the 21st century. It is natural, therefore, that a certain impatience should prevail in attempting to solve these problems. The point of this review paper is that one should proceed with all diligence, but not excessive haste: "festina lente," as the Romans said two thousand years ago, i.e. "hurry in a measured way." The paper traces the necessary progress through the solutions to the ten problems: 1. What is the coarse-grained structure of low-frequency atmospheric variability, and what is the connection between its episodic and oscillatory description? 2. What can we predict beyond one week, for how long, and by what methods? 3. What are the respective roles of intrinsic ocean variability, coupled ocean-atmosphere modes, and atmospheric forcing in seasonal-to-interannual variability? 4. What are the implications of the answer to the previous problem for climate prediction on this time scale? 5. How does the oceans' thermohaline circulation change on interdecadal and longer time scales, and what is the role of the atmosphere and sea ice in such changes? 6. What is the role of chemical cycles and biological changes in affecting climate on slow time scales, and how are they affected, in turn, by climate variations? 7. Does the answer to the question above give us some trigger points for climate control? 8. What can we learn about these problems from the atmospheres and oceans of other planets and their satellites? 9. Given the answer to the questions so far, what is the role of humans in modifying the climate? 10. Can we achieve enlightened climate control of our planet by the end of the century? A unified framework is proposed to deal with these problems in succession, from the shortest to the longest timescale, i.e. from weeks to centuries and millennia. The framework is that of dynamical systems theory, with an emphasis on successive bifurcations and the ergodic theory of nonlinear systems. The main ideas and methods are outlined and the concept of a modelling hierarchy is introduced. The methodology is applied across the modelling hierarchy to Problem 5, which concerns the thermohaline circulation and its variability. Key words. Climate dynamics, nonlinear systems, numerical bifurcations, mathematical geophysics

Description: The propagation of long, weakly nonlinear internal waves in a stratified gas is studied. Hydrodynamic equations for an ideal fluid with the perfect gas law describe the atmospheric gas behaviour. If we neglect the term Ͽ dw/dt (product of the density and vertical acceleration), we come to a so-called quasistatic model, while we name the full hydro-dynamic model as a nonquasistatic one. Both quasistatic and nonquasistatic models are used for wave simulation and the models are compared among themselves. It is shown that a smooth classical solution of a nonlinear quasistatic problem does not exist for all t because a gradient catastrophe of non-linear internal waves occurs. To overcome this difficulty, we search for the solution of the quasistatic problem in terms of a generalised function theory as a limit of special regularised equations containing some additional dissipation term when the dissipation factor vanishes. It is shown that such solutions of the quasistatic problem qualitatively differ from solutions of a nonquasistatic nature. It is explained by the fact that in a nonquasistatic model the vertical acceleration term plays the role of a regularizator with respect to a quasistatic model, while the solution qualitatively depends on the regularizator used. The numerical models are compared with some analytical results. Within the framework of the analytical model, any internal wave is described as a system of wave modes; each wave mode interacts with others due to equation non-linearity. In the principal order of a perturbation theory, each wave mode is described by some equation of a KdV type. The analytical model reveals that, in a nonquasistatic model, an internal wave should disintegrate into solitons. The time of wave disintegration into solitons, the scales and amount of solitons generated are important characteristics of the non-linear process; they are found with the help of analytical and numerical investigations. Satisfactory coincidence of simulation outcomes with analytical ones is revealed and some examples of numerical simulations illustrating wave disintegration into solitons are given. The phenomenon of internal wave mixing is considered and is explained from the point of view of the results obtained. The numerical methods for internal wave simulation are examined. In particular, the influence of difference interval finiteness on a numerical solution is investigated. It is revealed that a numerical viscosity and numerical dispersion can play the role of regularizators to a nonlinear quasistatic problem. To avoid this effect, the grid steps should be taken less than some threshold values found theoretically.

Description: Operational forecasting is hampered both by the rapid divergence of nearby initial conditions and by error in the underlying model. Interest in chaos has fuelled much work on the first of these two issues; this paper focuses on the second. A new approach to quantifying state-dependent model error, the local model drift, is derived and deployed both in examples and in operational numerical weather prediction models. A simple law is derived to relate model error to likely shadowing performance (how long the model can stay close to the observations). Imperfect model experiments are used to contrast the performance of truncated models relative to a high resolution run, and the operational model relative to the analysis. In both cases the component of forecast error due to state-dependent model error tends to grow as the square-root of forecast time, and provides a major source of error out to three days. These initial results suggest that model error plays a major role and calls for further research in quantifying both the local model drift and expected shadowing times.

Description: Ensemble Prediction has become an essential part of numerical weather forecasting. In this paper we investigate the ability of ensemble forecasts to provide an a priori estimate of the expected forecast skill. Several quantities derived from the local ensemble distribution are investigated for a two year data set of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) temperature and wind speed ensemble forecasts at 30 German stations. The results indicate that the population of the ensemble mode provides useful information for the uncertainty in temperature forecasts. The ensemble entropy is a similar good measure. This is not true for the spread if it is simply calculated as the variance of the ensemble members with respect to the ensemble mean. The number of clusters in the C regions is almost unrelated to the local skill. For wind forecasts, the results are less promising.

Description: A new viewpoint on the generation and maintenance of the Earth's magnetic field is put forward, which integrates self-exciting dynamo theory with the possibility of energy coupling along orthogonal axes provided by the Hall effect. A nonlinear third-order system is derived, with a fourth equation serving as an observer of unspecified geophysical processes which could result in field reversal. Lyapunov analysis proves that chaos is not intrinsic to this system. Relative constancy of one of the variables produces pseudo equilibrium in a second order subsystem and allows for self-excitation of the geomagnetic field. Electromagnetic analysis yields expressions for key parameters. Models for secular variations recorded at London, Palermo and at the Cape of Good Hope over the past four hundred years are offered. Offset of the Earth's magnetic axis from the geographic axis is central to time-varying declination, but its causes have not yet been established. Applicability of the model to the explanation of sunspot activity is outlined. A corroborating experiment published by Peter Barlow in 1831 is appended.

Description: The dynamics of the growth of linear disturbances to a chaotic basic state is analyzed in an asymptotic model of weakly nonlinear, baroclinic wave-mean interaction. In this model, an ordinary differential equation for the wave amplitude is coupled to a partial differential equation for the zonal flow correction. The leading Lyapunov vector is nearly parallel to the leading Floquet vector f1 of the lowest-order unstable periodic orbit over most of the attractor. Departures of the Lyapunov vector from this orientation are primarily rotations of the vector in an approximate tangent plane to the large-scale attractor structure. Exponential growth and decay rates of the Lyapunov vector during individual Poincaré section returns are an order of magnitude larger than the Lyapunov exponent l ≈ 0.016. Relatively large deviations of the Lyapunov vector from parallel to f1 are generally associated with relatively large transient decays. The transient growth and decay of the Lyapunov vector is well described by the transient growth and decay of the leading Floquet vectors of the set of unstable periodic orbits associated with the attractor. Each of these vectors is also nearly parallel to f1. The dynamical splitting of the complete sets of Floquet vectors for the higher-order cycles follows the previous results on the lowest-order cycle, with the vectors divided into wave-dynamical and decaying zonal flow modes. Singular vectors and singular values also generally follow this split. The primary difference between the leading Lyapunov and singular vectors is the contribution of decaying, inviscidly-damped wave-dynamical structures to the singular vectors.

Description: In this paper, we apply the principles of information theory that relate to the definition of nonlinear predictability, which is a measure that describes both the linear and nonlinear components of a system. By comparing this measure to a measure of linear predictability, one can assess whether a given system has a strong nonlinear or a strong linear component. This provides insights as to whether the system should be modelled by a nonlinear model or by a linear model. We apply these ideas to a known dynamical system and to a time series that describe the transitions in atmospheric circulation.

Description: The performance of the ARPA-SMR Limited-area Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS), generated by nesting a limited-area model on selected members of the ECMWF targeted ensemble, is evaluated for two flood events that occurred during September 1992. The predictability of the events is studied for forecast times ranging from 2 to 4 days. The extent to which floods localised in time and space can be forecast at high resolution in probabilistic terms was investigated. Rainfall probability maps generated by both LEPS and ECMWF targeted ensembles are compared for different precipitation thresholds in order to assess the impact of enhanced resolution. At all considered forecast ranges, LEPS performs better, providing a more accurate description of the event with respect to the spatio-temporal location, as well as its intensity. In both flood cases, LEPS probability maps turn out to be a very valuable tool to assist forecasters to issue flood alerts at different forecast ranges. It is also shown that at the shortest forecast range, the deterministic prediction provided by the limited area model, when run in a higher-resolution configuration, provides a very accurate rainfall pattern and a good quantitative estimate of the total rainfall deployed in the flooded regions.

Description: Two-dimensional unsteady incompressible flows in which the potential vorticity (PV) plays a key role are examined in this study, through the development of the evolution equation for the PV gradient. For the case where the PV is conserved, precise statements concerning topology-conservation are presented. While establishing some intuitively well-known results (the numbers of eddies and saddles is conserved), other less obvious consequences (PV patches cannot be generated, some types of Lagrangian and Eulerian entities are equivalent) are obtained. This approach enables an improvement on an integrability result for PV conserving flows (if there were no PV patches at time zero, the flow would be integrable). The evolution of the PV gradient is also determined for the nonconservative case, and a plausible experiment for estimating eddy diffusivity is suggested. The theory is applied to an analytical diffusive Rossby wave example.

Description: The solar wind is a highly turbulent and intermittent medium at frequencies between 10-4 and 10-1 Hz. Power spectra are used to look at fluctuations in the components of the magnetic field at high frequencies over a wide range of latitudes. Results show steady turbulence in the polar regions of the Sun and a more varied environment in the equatorial region. The magnetic field fluctuations exhibit anomalous scaling at high frequencies. Various models have been proposed in an attempt to better understand the scaling nature of such fluctuations in neutral fluid turbulence. We have used the Ulysses fast latitude scan data to perform a wide ranging comparison of three such models on the solar wind magnetic field data: the well-known P model, in both its Kolmogorov and Kraichnan forms, the lognormal cascade model and a model adapted from atmospheric physics, the G infinity model. They were tested by using fits to graphs of the structure function exponents g(q), by making a comparison with a non-linear measure of the deviation of g(q) from the non-intermittent straight line, and by using extended self similarity technique, over a large range of helio-latitudes. Tests of all three models indicated a high level of intermittency in the fast solar wind, and showed a varied structure in the slow wind, with regions of apparently little intermittency next to regions of high intermittency, implying that the slow wind has no uniform origin. All but one of the models performed well, with the lognormal and Kolmogorov P model performing the best over all the tests, indicating that inhomogeneous energy transfer in the cascade is a good description. The Kraichnan model performed relatively poorly, and the overall results show that the Kraichnan model of turbulence is not well supported over the frequency and distance ranges of our data set. The G infinity model fitted the results surprisingly well and showed that there may very well be important universal geometrical aspects of intermittency over many physical systems.

Description: Three aspects of complexity are fractals, chaos, and self-organized criticality. There are many examples of the applicability of fractals in solid-earth geophysics, such as earthquakes and landforms. Chaos is widely accepted as being applicable to a variety of geophysical phenomena, for instance, tectonics and mantle convection. Several simple cellular-automata models have been said to exhibit self-organized criticality. Examples include the sandpile, forest fire and slider-blocks models. It is believed that these are directly applicable to landslides, actual forest fires, and earthquakes, respectively. The slider-block model has been shown to clearly exhibit deterministic chaos and fractal behaviour. The concept of self-similar cascades can explain self-organized critical behaviour. This approach also illustrates the similarities and differences with critical phenomena through association with the site-percolation and diffusion-limited aggregation models.

Description: An analysis of low order mode coupling equations is used to describe the nonlinear behaviour of the Rayleigh-Taylor (RT) instability in the equatorial ionosphere. The nonlinear evolution of RT instability leads to the development of shear flow. It is found that there is an interplay between the nonlinearity and the shear flow which compete with each other and saturate the RT mode, both in the collisionless and collisional regime. However, the nonlinearly saturated state, normally known as vortices or bubbles, may not be stable. Under certain condition these bubbles are shown to be unstable to short scale secondary instabilities that are driven by the large gradients which develop within these structures. Some understanding of the role of collisional nonlinearity in the  shear flow generations is also discussed.

Description: The singular values associated with optimally growing perturbations to stationary and time-dependent solutions for the general circulation in an ocean basin provide a measure of the rate at which solutions with nearby initial conditions begin to diverge, and hence, a measure of the predictability of the flow. In this paper, the singular vectors and singular values of stationary and evolving examples of wind-driven, double-gyre circulations in different flow regimes are explored. By changing the Reynolds number in simple quasi-geostrophic models of the wind-driven circulation, steady, weakly aperiodic and chaotic states may be examined. The singular vectors of the steady state reveal some of the physical mechanisms responsible for optimally growing perturbations. In time-dependent cases, the dominant singular values show significant variability in time, indicating strong variations in the predictability of the flow. When the underlying flow is weakly aperiodic, the dominant singular values co-vary with integral measures of the large-scale flow, such as the basin-integrated upper ocean kinetic energy and the transport in the western boundary current extension. Furthermore, in a reduced gravity quasi-geostrophic model of a weakly aperiodic, double-gyre flow, the behaviour of the dominant singular values may be used to predict a change in the large-scale flow, a feature not shared by an analogous two-layer model. When the circulation is in a strongly aperiodic state, the dominant singular values no longer vary coherently with integral measures of the flow. Instead, they fluctuate in a very aperiodic fashion on mesoscale time scales. The dominant singular vectors then depend strongly on the arrangement of mesoscale features in the flow and the evolved forms of the associated singular vectors have relatively short spatial scales. These results have several implications. In weakly aperiodic, periodic, and stationary regimes, the mesoscale energy content is usually relatively low and the predictability of the wind-driven circulation is determined by the large-scale structure of the flow. In the more realistic, strongly chaotic regime, in which energetic mesoscale eddies are produced by the meandering of the separated western boundary current extension, the predictability of the flow locally tends to be a stronger function of the local mesoscale eddy structure than of the larger scale structure of the circulation. This has a broader implication for the effectiveness of different approaches to forecasting the ocean with models which sequentially assimilate new observations.

Description: It is well known that the structure of magnetic field lines in solar wind can be influenced by the presence of the magnetohydrodynamic turbulence. We have developed a Monte Carlo simulation which traces the magnetic field lines in the heliosphere, including the effects of magnetic turbulence. These effects are modelled by random operators which are proportional to the square root of the magnetic field line diffusion coefficient. The modelling of the random terms is explained, in detail, in the case of numerical integration by discrete steps. Furthermore, a proper evaluation of the diffusion coefficient is obtained by a numerical simulation of transport in anisotropic magnetic turbulence. The scaling of the fluctuation level and of the correlation lengths with the distance from the Sun are also taken into account. As a consequence, plasma transport across the average magnetic field direction is obtained. An application to the propagation of energetic particles from corotating interacting regions to high heliographic latitudes is considered.

Description: The Lo River fault near Tam Dao, North Vietnam, is a young, right-lateral, normal fault which has been active throughout the Quaternary. Rates of dextral slip range between 1 and 2 mm/yr whereas rates of uplift can be estimated roughly at 0.1–1 mm/yr. The drainage deflection and arrangement of shutter ridges suggest 1.5–2.0 km of dextral offset during the past 1–2 millions of years (m. y.), and the height of the youngest faceted spurs averages at 170 m. Analysis of morphometric parametres of the mountain front at Tam Dao indicates that this segment shows properties typical for nearly rectilinear, young normal scarps that belong to class I or II of relative tectonic activity and that are capable of generating strong earthquakes in the future.

Description: The nonlinear mechanism of long gravitational surface water wave generation by high-frequency bottom oscillations in a water layer of constant depth is investigated analytically. The connection between the surface wave amplitude and the parameters of bottom oscillations and source length is investigated.

Description: The Lesina coastal barrier is characterized by the presence of three wide washover fans. They were formed by three distinct tsunamis which struck the northern coast of the Gargano Promontory (Apulia, Italy) during historical times. A model for their formation is presented. It takes into account the geomorphological data collected and some reports about the effect of recent tsunamis on coastal barriers and beaches. Washover fans were produced by tsunami waves which ran through coseismic cracks developed on dune ridges shaping a narrow, straight and relatively deep trench which constitutes the fan throat. Moreover, each tsunami event most likely caused severe erosion of the coastal barrier, shaping erosive grooves across the dune ridges, causing beach cliffs and causing the nourishment of submarine offshore bars. After the tsunami, a phase of coastal barrier recovery began, forming new dune ridges and closing washover fan throats. Morphological, archeological and radiometric data indicate a pre-Roman age for the oldest event, which was dated at 2430 years BP. The second tsunami struck the Lesina coastal barrier with similar magnitude 1550 years BP; it was caused by the strong earthquake that occurred at Gargano Promontory in the year 493 AD as reported by a medieval sacred legend. The smallest and more recent fan formed following the tsunami that hit the northern coast of Gargano on 30 July 1627.

Description: ULF emission data at Lunping (epicentral distance, 120 km) have been analysed for the Chi-Chi earthquake (with magnitude 7.6 and depth of 11 km) in Taiwan which occurred on 21 September 1999. Simple intensity analyses have not yielded any significant results but we have found, based on the analysis of polarization (the ratio of vertical magnetic field component Z to the horizontal component G), that the polarization (Z/G) showed a significant enhancement for two months before the earthquake. This kind of temporal evolution of polarization seems to be very similar to previous results, so that it is highly likely that this phenomenon may be associated with the Chi-Chi earthquake. Also, the comparison of the results of polarization analyses, by changing the signal threshold, has given us an approximate intensity of the seismogenic emission of the order of the monthly mean value.

Description: A large 10 cm per day diastrophism of the crust was experienced between Kozu and Niijima Islands during the Izu-Miyake volcanic eruptions in Japan on 3–4 August 2000. The diastrophism was detected through GPS observation. The seismometer also complied a swarm of earth-quakes at this time. Our electromagnetic wave data, observed at 223 Hz at the Omaezaki site, about 110 km and 150 km northwest of the Kozu and Miyake Islands, respectively, detected a clear, anomalous magnetic flux radiation that corresponded well with the seismographic and GPS data. Similar radiation was received for about one week preceding the big volcanic eruption that occurred on 18 August 2000. These observations indicate that the electromagnetic wave monitoring system has the potential to monitor and/or warn of volcanic activity, and the facts disclose one of the mysterious radiation mechanisms of electromagnetic waves emitted from the Earth.

Description: In this paper, perturbations of the ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) are compared with geomagnetic oscillations. Comparison is made for a few selected periods, some during earthquakes in California and Japan and others at quiet periods in Israel and California. Anomalies in TEC were extracted using Global Positioning System (GPS) observations collected by GIL (GPS in Israel) and the California permanent GPS networks. Geomagnetic data were collected in some regions where geomagnetic observatories and the GPS network overlaps. Sensitivity of the GPS method and basic wave characteristics of the ionospheric TEC perturbations are discussed. We study temporal variations of ionospheric TEC structures with highest reasonable spatial resolution around 50 km. Our results show no detectable TEC disturbances caused by right-lateral strike-slip earthquakes with minor vertical displacement. However, geomagnetic observations obtained at two observatories located in the epicenter zone of a strong dip-slip earthquake (Kyuchu, M = 6.2, 26 March 1997) revealed geomagnetic disturbances occurred 6–7 h before the earthquake.

Description: A statistical analysis of several ionospheric parameters before earthquakes with magnitude M 〉 5.5 located less than 500 km from an ionospheric vertical sounding station is performed. Ionospheric effects preceding "deep" (depth h 〉 33 km) and "crust" (h 〈 33 km) earthquakes were analysed separately. Data of nighttime measurements of the critical frequencies foF2 and foEs, the frequency fbEs and Es-spread at the middle latitude station Dushanbe were used. The frequencies foF2 and fbEs are proportional to the square root of the ionization density at heights of 300 km and 100 km, respectively. It is shown that two days before the earthquakes the values of foF2 averaged over the morning hours (00:00 LT–06:00 LT) and of fbEs averaged over the nighttime hours (18:00 LT–06:00 LT) decrease; the effect is stronger for the "deep" earthquakes. Analysing the coefficient of semitransparency which characterizes the degree of small-scale turbulence, it was shown that this value increases 1–4 days before "crust" earthquakes, and it does not change before "deep" earthquakes. Studying Es-spread which manifests itself as diffuse Es track on ionograms and characterizes the degree of large-scale turbulence, it was found that the number of Es-spread observations increases 1–3 days before the earthquakes; for "deep" earthquakes the effect is more intensive. Thus it may be concluded that different mechanisms of energy transfer from the region of earthquake preparation to the ionosphere occur for "deep" and "crust" events.

Description: We test the hypothesis that critical point dynamics precedes strong earthquakes in a region surrounding the future hypocenter. Therefore, we search systematically for regions obeying critical point dynamics in terms of a growing spatial correlation length (GCL). The question of whether or not these spatial patterns are correlated with future seismicity is crucial for the problem of predictability. The analysis is conducted for earthquakes with M 〉 6.5 in California. As a result, we observe that GCL patterns are correlated with the distribution of future seismicity. In particular, there are clear correlations in some cases, e.g. the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake and the 1999 Hector Mine earthquake. We claim that the critical point concept can improve the seismic hazard assessment.

Description: The main goal of this study is to give the preliminary estimates of the tsunami risks for the Lesser Antilles. We investigated the available data of the tsunamis in the French West Indies using the historical data and catalogue of the tsunamis in the Lesser Antilles. In total, twenty-four (24) tsunamis were recorded in this area for last 400 years; sixteen (16) events of the seismic origin, five (5) events of volcanic origin and three (3) events of unknown source. Most of the tsunamigenic earthquakes (13) occurred in the Caribbean, and three tsunamis were generated during far away earthquakes (near the coasts of Portugal and Costa Rica). The estimates of tsunami risk are based on a preliminary analysis of the seismicity of the Caribbean area and the historical data of tsunamis. In particular, we investigate the occurrence of historical extreme runup tsunami data on Guadeloupe, and these data are revised after a survey in Guadeloupe.

Description: During the last few years, the steady increase in the quantity and quality of the data concerning tsunamis has led to an increasing interest in the inversion problem for tsunami data. This work addresses the usually ill-posed problem of the hydrodynamical inversion of tsunami tide-gage records to infer the initial sea perturbation. We use an inversion method for which the data space consists of a given number of waveforms and the model parameter space is represented by the values of the initial water elevation field at a given number of points. The forward model, i.e. the calculation of the synthetic tide-gage records from an initial water elevation field, is based on the linear shallow water equations and is simply solved by applying the appropriate Green’s functions to the known initial state. The inversion of tide-gage records to determine the initial state results in the least square inversion of a rectangular system of linear equations. When the inversions are unconstrained, we found that in order to attain good results, the dimension of the data space has to be much larger than that of the model space parameter. We also show that a large number of waveforms is not sufficient to ensure a good inversion if the corresponding stations do not have a good azimuthal coverage with respect to source directivity. To improve the inversions we use the available a priori information on the source, generally coming from the inversion of seismological data. In this paper we show how to implement very common information about a tsunamigenic seismic source, i.e. the earthquake source region, as a set of spatial constraints. The results are very satisfactory, since even a rough localisation of the source enables us to invert correctly the initial elevation field.

Description: The recent results of the research for earthquake precursory phenomena on the underground water level and temperature at the area Pieria of northern Greece are presented. The analysis of our observations in relation to the local microseismicity indicate that underground water level variations may be considered as precursory phenomena connected to the local microseismic activity in the area of Pieria. Base on these results, it can be supported that monitoring the shallow underground water level and temperature for detecting earthquake precursory phenomena may be proved to be a useful method in the framework of an interdisciplinary research for earthquake prediction.

Description: Seismicity is a distributed process of great spatial and temporal variability and complexity. Efforts to characterise and describe the evolution of seismicity patterns have a long history. Today, the detection of changes in the spatial distribution of seismicity is still regarded as one of the most important approaches in monitoring and understanding seismicity. The problem of how to best describe these spatio-temporal changes remains, also in view of the detection of possible precursors for large earthquakes. In particular, it is difficult to separate the superimposed effects of different origin and to unveil the subtle (precursory) effects in the presence of stronger but irrelevant constituents. I present an approach to the latter two problems which relies on the Principal Components Analysis (PCA), a method based on eigen-structure analysis, by taking a time series approach and separating the seismicity rate patterns into a background component and components of change. I show a sample application to the Southern California area and discuss the promising results in view of their implications, potential applications and with respect to their possible precursory qualities.

Description: A review of data processing of electromagnetic emission observation collected at the Complex Geophysical Observatory Karimshino (Kamchatka peninsula) during the first 5 months (July–November, 2000) of its operation is given. The main goal of this study addresses the detection of the phenomena associated with Kamchatka seismic activity. The following observations have been conducted at CGO: variations of ULF/ELF magnetic field, geoelectric potentials (telluric currents), and VLF signals from navigation radio transmitters. The methods of data processing of these observations are discussed. The examples of the first experimental results are presented.

Description: Taking into account the pressure anisotropy in the solar wind, we study the magnetic field and plasma parameters downstream of a fast shock, as functions of upstream parameters and downstream pressure anisotropy. In our theoretical approach, we model two cases: a) the perpendicular shock and b) the oblique shock. We use two threshold conditions of plasma instabilities as additional equations to bound the range of pressure anisotropy. The criterion of the mirror instability is used for pressure anisotropy p \perp /p\parrallel 〉 1. Analogously, the criterion of the fire-hose instability is taken into account for pressure anisotropy p \perp /p\parrallel 〈 1. We found that the variations of the parallel pressure, the parallel temperature, and the tangential component of the velocity are most sensitive to the pressure anisotropy downstream of the shock. Finally, we compare our theory with plasma and magnetic field parameters measured by the WIND spacecraft.

Description: A description of a deterministic chaotic system in terms of unstable periodic orbits (UPO) is used to develop a method of an a priori estimate of the sensitivity of statistical averages of the solution to small external influences. This method allows us to determine the forcing perturbation which maximizes the norm of the perturbation of a statistical moment of the solution on the attractor. The method was applied to the barotropic ocean model in order to determine the perturbation of the wind field which provides the greatest perturbation of the model's climate. The estimates of perturbations of the model's time mean solution and its mean variance were compared with directly calculated values. The comparison shows that some 20 UPOs is sufficient to realize this approach and to obtain a good accuracy.

Description: Multi-petal, rotating vortices can form in two-dimensional flows consisting of an inviscid incompressible fluid under certain conditions. Such vortices are principally nonlinear thermo-hydrodynamical structures. The proper rotation of these structures which leads to time-dependent variations of the associated temperature field can be enregistred by a stationary observer. The problem is analyzed in the framework of the contour dynamics method (CDM). An analytical solution of the reduced equation for a contour curvature is found. We give a classification of the solutions and compare the obtained results with observational data.

Description: One approach recently proposed in order to improve the forecast of weather events, such as cyclogenesis, is to increase the number of observations in areas depending on the flow configuration. These areas are obtained using, for example, the sensitivity to initial conditions of a selected predicted cyclone. An alternative or complementary way is proposed here. The idea is to employ such an adjoint sensitivity field as a local structure function within variational data assimilation, 3D-Var in this instance. Away from the sensitive area, observation increments project on the initial fields with the usual climatological (or weakly flow-dependent, in the case of 4D-Var) structure functions. Within the sensitive area, the gradient fields are projected using all the available data in the zone, conventional or extra, if any. The formulation of the technique is given and the approach is further explained by using a simple 1D scheme. The technique is implemented in the ARPEGE/IFS code and applied to 11 FASTEX (Fronts and Atlantic Storm-Track Experiment) cyclone cases, together with the targeted observations performed at the time of the campaign. The new approach is shown to allow for the desired stronger impact of the available observations and to systematically improve the forecasts of the FASTEX cyclones, unlike the standard 3D-Var.

Description: This paper applies the Hamiltonian Approach (HA) to two-dimensional motions of incompressible fluid in curvi-linear coordinates, in particular on a sphere. The HA has been used to formulate governing equations of motion and to interpret the evolution of a system consisting of N localized two-dimensional vortices on a sphere. If the number of vortices N is large,  N ~ 102 - 103 , a small number of vortex collective structures (clusters) is formed. The surprise is that a quasi-final state does not correspond to completely disorganized distribution of vorticity. Numerical analysis has been carried out for initial conditions taken in the form of a few axisymmetric chains of point vortices distributed initially in fixed latitudes. The scheme of Runge-Kutta of 4th order has been used for simulating an evolution of resulting flows. The numerical analysis shows that the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability appears immediately formating initial disorganized structures which are developed and finally "bursted". The system evolves to a few separated vortex "spots" which exist sufficiently for a long time.

Description: As the finite correlation time of a force driving turbulence is taken into account, a new, dimensionless parameter occurs in the theory of turbulence. This new parameter is responsible for two different mechanisms of formation of anomalous spectra. The first mechanism is related to the change of a governing parameter, which defines the spectrum of turbulent fluctuation. The second mechanism is associated with spontaneous formation of characteristic scales that differ parametrically from the scale of the external force. The last mechanism can explain the intermittent structure of turbulent flows. The appropriate discrete set of the possible characteristic scales and anomalous spectra has been calculated. The results give a new insight into the concept of universality: there is a set of universal power laws, although occurrence in the spectrum segments described by one or another power law from this set depends on the dimensionless parameter mentioned above. It is noted that for the broad class of geophysical flows, the new dimensionless parameter is connected with the so-called degree of turbulence, which guarantees that the smallness of this parameter, as the degree of turbulence is usually small enough. That explains the important role of the Kolmogorov spectrum in geophysical applications.

Description: Earthquakes occurring at the Pacific Rim can trigger tsunamis that propagate across the ocean and can produce significant damages far away from the source. In French Polynesia, the Marquesas Islands are the most exposed to the far-field tsunami hazards, since they are not protected by any outer coral reef and since submarine slopes are less steep than in other islands. Between 1994 and 1996, four tsunamis have reached the bays of the archipelago, among them, the tsunami initiated by the Chilean Mw 8.1 earthquake, produced up to 3 m high waves in Tahauku Bay. Numerical modeling of these recent events has already allowed us to validate our method of resolution of hydrodynamics laws through a finite-difference scheme that simulates the propagation of the tsunamis across the ocean and computes the inundation heights (run-up) in remote bays. We present in this paper the simulations carried out to study potentially threatening areas located at the Pacific Rim, on the seismogenic Aleutian and Tonga subduction zones. We use a constant seismic moment source (that of the Mw 8.1 Chile 1995 earthquake, M0 = 1.2 1021 N.m) located at several potential epicenters, with the fault strike adapted from the regional seismotectonics pattern. Our results show that the sources chosen in the Aleutian trench do not produce large inundations in the Marquesas bays, except for the easternmost source (longitude 194° E). Sources located in the Tonga trench do not produce high amplifications either, except for the northernmost one (latitude 16° S). We also discuss the behaviour of the tsunami waves within the archipelago, and evidence contrasting responses depending on the arrival azimuths. These results show that, for a given initial seismic energy, the tsunami amplification in remote bays is highly dependent on the source location and fault strike.

Description: The study of hydrological variations in the watersheds of seismic areas can be useful in order to acquire a new knowledge of the mechanisms by which earthquakes can produce hydrological anomalies. Italy has the availability of many long historical series both of hydrological parameters and of seismological data, and is an ideal laboratory to verify the validity of theoretical models proposed by various authors. In this work we analyse the hydrological anomalies associated with some of the big earthquakes that occurred in the last century in the southern Apennines: 1930, 1980 and 1984. For these earthquakes we analysed hydrometric and pluviometric data looking for significant anomalies in springs, water wells and mountain streams. The influence of rainfalls on the normal flows of rivers, springs and wells has been ascertained. Also, the earthquake of 1805, for which a lot of hydrological perturbations have been reported, is considered in order to point out effects imputable to this earthquake that can be similar to the effects of the other big earthquakes. The considered seismic events exhibit different modes of energy release, different focal mechanisms and different propagation of effects on the invested areas. Furthermore, even if their epicentres were not localised in contiguous seismogenetic areas, it seems that the hydrological effects imputable to them took place in the same areas. Such phenomena have been compared with macroseismic fields and transformed in parameters, in order to derive empirical relationships between the dimensions of the event and the characteristics of the hydrological variations. The results of this work point to a close dependence among hydrological anomalies, regional structures and fault mechanisms, and indicate that many clear anomalies have been forerunners of earthquakes. In 1993, the Naples Bureau of the Hydrographic National Service started the continuous monitoring of hydrologic parameters by a network of automatic stations and transmission in real time; presently 7 acquifers are under control in which also pH, T , salinity, electrical conductivity, dissolved oxygen are measured. We envisage to increase the number of monitoring sites and controlled parameters.

Description: This paper presents the preliminary results on the possible reception of over-horizon VHF radio signals from a FM (frequency modulation) transmitter during abnormal situations (probably in close association with earthquakes). The transmitter is FM Sendai (frequency = 77.1 MHz) and the receiving station is our university (UEC) at Chofu, Tokyo, with the transmitter-receiver distance being about 310 km. We first show a typical example of the reception of over-horizon VHF signals in which we present the amplitude behavior, azimuthal and incident angle estimation, etc. Then, we study the correlation between a signal anomaly and an earthquake and it seems that the over-horizon VHF signals observed are probably associated with earthquakes, observed about 7 to 0 days before an earthquake. The direction finding measurements have indicated that such signals are due to favorable tropospheric (but not ionospheric) conditions attributed to the effects of earthquakes.

Description: Among radio signals, low frequency (LF) radio signals lie in the band between 30–300 kHz. Monitoring equipment with the ability to measure the electric strength of such signals at field sites, were designed and assembled in Italy. From 1993 onwards, the electric field strength of the MCO (216 kHz, France) broadcasting station has been collecting measurements at two sites in central Italy that were chosen according to very low noise levels. At the end of 1996, radio signals from the CLT (189 kHz, Italy) and CZE (270 kHz, Czech Republic) broadcasting stations were included in the measurements. Meteorological data from central Italy were also collected over the same time period in order to study the influence of weather conditions on the experimental measurements. During the monitoring period, we observed some evident attenuation of the electric field strength in some of the radio signals at some of the receivers. The duration of the attenuation observed was several days, so it could possibly be related to particular meteorological conditions. On the other hand, this phenomenon might represent precursors of moderate (3.0 〈 M 〈 3.5) earthquakes that occurred near the receivers (within 50 km) along the transmitter-receiver path. In this case, it is possible that the pre-seismic processes could have produced irregularities in the troposphere, such as ducts, reflecting layers and scattering zones, so that some local troposphere defocusing of the radio signals might have occurred. These observations were related only to moderate earthquakes and in these cases, suitable meteorological conditions were probably needed to observe the effect. Between February – March 1998, we observed at one measuring site, a significant increase in the CZE electric field strength. Unfortunately, we could not use the data of the other receiver in this case, due to frequent interruptions in the data set. The increase might have been a precursor of the strong seismic sequence (M = 5.0–6.0) that occurred during March – May 1998 in Slovenia at a location over 400 km from the receiver, but lying in the middle of the transmitter-receiver path. In this case, it is possible that an ionospheric disturbance, produced by the pre-seismic processes, might have occurred.

Description: The southwestern Ryukyu area east of Taiwan Island is an arcuate boundary between Philippine Sea Plate and Eurasian Plate. The topographic features in the area are characterised by (1) a large-scale amphitheatre off Ishigaki Island, just on the estimated epicentre of the tsunamigenic earthquake in 1771, (2) lots of deep sea canyons located north of the amphitheatre, (3) 15–20 km wide fore-arc basin, (4) 15–20 km wide flat plane in the axial area of the trench, (5) E-W trending half grabens located on the fore-arc area, etc., which were revealed by several recent topographic survey expeditions. The diving survey by SHINKAI6500 in the fore-arc area on a spur located 120 km south of Ishigaki Island was carried out in 1992. The site is characterised dominantly by rough topography consisting of a series of steep slopes and escarpments. A part of the surface is eroded due to the weight of the sediment itself and consequently the basement layer is exposed. The site was covered with suspended particles during the diving, due to the present surface sliding and erosion. The same site was resurveyed in 1997 by ROV KAIKO, which confirmed the continuous slope failure taking place in the site. Another example that was observed by KAIKO expedition in 1997 is a largescale mud block on the southward dipping slope 80 km south of Ishigaki Island. This is apparently derived from the shallower part of the steep slope on the southern edge of the fan deposit south of Ishigaki Island. The topographic features suggest N-S or NE-SW tensional stress over the whole study area. In this sense, the relative motion between the two plates in this area is oblique to the plate boundary. So, the seaward migration of the plate boundary may occur due to the gravitational instability at the boundary of the two different lithospheric structures. This is evidenced by a lack of accretionary sediment on the fore-arc and the mechanism of a recent earthquake which occurred on 3 May 1998 in the Philippine Sea Plate 250 km SSE of Ishigaki Island.

Description: A new version of the European catalogue of tsunamis is presented here. It differs from the latest release of the catalogue that was produced in 1998 and is known as GITEC tsunami catalogue in some important aspects. In the first place, it is a database built on the Visual FoxPro 6.0 DBMS that can be used and maintained under the PC operating systems currently available. Conversely, the GITEC catalogue was compatible only with Windows 95 and older PC platforms. In the second place, it is enriched by new facilities and a new type of data, such as a database of pictures that can be accessed easily from the main screen of the catalogue. Thirdly, it has been updated by including the newly published references. Minute and painstaking search for new data has been undertaken to re-evaluate cases that were not included in the GITEC catalogue, though they were mentioned in previous catalogues; the exclusion was motivated by a lack of data. This last work has focused so far on Italian cases of the last two centuries. The result is that at least two events have been found which deserve inclusion in the new catalogue: one occurred in 1809 in the Gulf of La Spezia, and the other occurred in 1940 in the Gulf of Palermo. Two further events are presently under investigation.

Description: The 1946 Aleutian earthquake was a typical tsunami earthquake which generated abnormally larger tsunami than expected from its seismic waves. Previously, Johnson and Satake (1997) estimated the fault model of this earthquake using the tsunami waveforms observed at tide gauges. However, they did not model the second pulse of the tsunami at Honolulu although that was much larger than the first pulse. In this paper, we numerically computed the tsunami waveforms using the linear Boussinesq equation to determine the fault model which explains the observed tsunami waveforms including the large second pulse observed at Honolulu. The estimated fault width is 40–60 km which is much narrower than the fault widths of the typical great underthrust earthquakes, the 1957 Aleutian and the 1964 Alasuka earthquakes. A previous study of the 1896 Sanriku earthquake, another typical tsunami earthquake, suggested that the additional uplift of the sediments near the Japan Trench had a large effect on the tsunami generation. In this study, we also show that the additional uplift of the sediments near the trench, due to a large coseismic horizon-tal movement of the backstop, had a significant effect on the tsunami generation of the 1946 Aleutian earthquake. The estimated seismic moment of the 1946 Aleutian earthquake is 17–19 × 1020 20 Nm (Mw 8.1).

Description: This paper presents the algorithms and results of the numerical simulation of the solution of a 2-D inverse problem on the restoration of seismic parameters and electrical conductivity of local inhomogeneities by the diffraction tomography method based upon the first order Born approximation. The direct problems for the Lame and Maxwell equations are solved by the finite difference method. Restoration of inhomogeneities which are not very weak is implemented with the use of a small number of receivers (source-receiver pairs).

Description: We developed an algorithm especially adapted to single-station wavelet detection of geomagnetic events, which precede or accompany the earthquakes. The detection problem in this situation is complicated by a great variability of earthquakes and accompanied phenomena, which aggravates finding characteristic features of the events. Therefore we chose to search for the characteristic features of both "disturbed" intervals (containing earthquakes) and "quiet" recordings. In this paper we propose an algorithm for solving the problem of detecting the presence of signals produced by an earthquake via analysis of its signature against the existing database of magnetic signals. To achieve this purpose, we construct the magnetic signature of certain earthquakes using the distribution of the energies among blocks, which consist of wavelet packet coefficients.

Description: Several methods are presently suggested for investigating pre-earthquake evolution of the regions of high tectonic activity based on analysis of the seismicity spatial distribution. Some precursor signatures are detected before strong earthquakes: decrease in fractal dimension of the continuum of earthquake epicenters, cluster formation, concentration of seismic events near one of the nodal planes of the future earthquake, and others. In the present paper, it is shown that such peculiarities are typical of the evolution of the shear crack network under external stresses in elastic bodies with inhomogeneous distribution of strength. The results of computer modeling of crack network evolution are presented. It is shown that variations of the fractal dimension of the earthquake epicenters’ continuum and other precursor signatures contain information about the evolution of the destruction process towards the main rupture.

Description: For many years, ion and gas content data have been collected from the groundwater of three deep wells in the southern area of the Kamchatka peninsula, Russia. In the last ten years, five earthquakes with M 〉 6.5 have occurred within 250 km of the wells. In a previous study, we investigated the possibility that the hydrogeochemical time series contained precursors. The technique used was to assume that each signal with an amplitude of three times the standard deviation is an irregularity and we then defined anomalies as irregularities occurring simultaneously in the data for more than one parameter at each well. Using this method, we identified 11 anomalies with 8 of them being possible successes and 3 being failures as earthquake precursors. Precursors were obtained for all five earthquakes that we considered. In this paper, we allow for the cross-correlation found between the gas data sets and in some cases, between the ion data sets. No cross-correlation has been found between gas and ion content data. Any correlation undermines the idea that an anomaly might be identified from irregularities appearing simultaneously on different parameters at each site. To refine the technique, we re-examine the hydrogeochemical data and define as anomalies those irregularities occurring simultaneously only in the data of two or more uncorrelated parameters. We then restricted the analysis to the cases of just the gas content data and the ion content data. In the first case, we found 6 successes and 2 failures, and in the second case, we found only 3 successes. In the first case, the precursors appear only for three of the five earthquakes we considered, and in the second case, only for two, but these are the earthquakes nearest to the wells. Interestingly, it shows that when a strict set of rules for defining an anomaly is used, the method produces only successes and when less restrictive rules are used, earthquakes further from the well are implicated, but at the cost of false alarms being introduced.

Description: The long-term evolution of scaling (fractal) characteristics of the ULF geomagnetic fields in the seismoactive region of the Guam Island is studied in relation to the strong (Ms = 8.0) nearby earthquake of 8 August 1993. The selected period covers 10 months before and 10 months after the earthquake. The FFT procedure, Burlaga-Klein approach and Higuchi method, have been applied to calculate the scaling exponents and fractal dimensions of the ULF time series. It is found that the spectrum of ULF emissions exhibits, on average, a power law behaviour S(f ) α f -b , which is a fingerprint of the typical fractal (self-affine) time series. The spectrum slope b fluctuates quasi-periodically during the course of time in a range of b = 2.5–0.7, which corresponds to the fractional Brownian motion with both persistent and antipersistent behaviour. An tendency is also found for the spectrum slope to decrease gradually when approaching the earthquake date. Such a tendency manifests itself at all local times, showing a gradual evolution of the structure of the ULF noise to a typical flicker noise structure in proximity to the large earthquake event. We suggest considering such a peculiarity as an earthquake precursory signature. One more effect related to the earthquake is revealed: the longest quasi-period, which is 27 days, disappeared from the variations of the ULF emission spectrum slope during the earthquake, and it reappeared three months after the event. Physical interpretation of the peculiarities revealed has been done on the basis of the SOC (self-organized criticality) concept.

Description: ULF/ELF emission observation has been performed at Nakatsugawa observatory (geographic coordinates; 35.4° N, 137.5° E, Gifu prefecture) since January 1999. The equipment consists of three-orthogonal magnetic sensors (induction coils), amplifiers, A/D converters and the data logger with a computer. The frequency range of observation is from 0.001 Hz to 50 Hz. The serious changes in ELF magnetic field intensity were detected on 20 September 1999, in such a way that the ELF noise level is found to increase by more than 5 dB from the normal level for about 1.5 h during 21:30–23:00 Japanese Standard Time on 20 September and also the upper limit extends up to 50 Hz. A careful comparison with the nearby lightning as detected by VLF, enables us to confirm that this abnormal ELF noise level increase is not due to the nearby lightning. The phase difference of these ELF emissions (BX , BY) was measured, and indicates that these ELF emissions are linearly polarized, suggesting that they have propagated in the subionospheric waveguide over long distances. This polarization result enables us to perform goniometric direction finding and the result shows that the main direction of these ULF/ELF emissions is toward Taiwan. Hence, it is likely that such ULF/ELF emissions are associated with the Chi-Chi earth-quake in Taiwan at 02:27 Japanese Standard Time on 21 September 1999 (M = 7.6; depth 11 km).

Description: The problem of tsunami wave generation by variable meteo-conditions is discussed. The simplified linear and nonlinear shallow water models are derived, and their analytical solutions for a basin of constant depth are discussed. The shallow-water model describes well the properties of the generated tsunami waves for all regimes, except the resonance case. The nonlinear-dispersive model based on the forced Korteweg-de Vries equation is developed to describe the resonant mechanism of the tsunami wave generation by the atmospheric disturbances moving with near-critical speed (long wave speed). Some analytical solutions of the nonlinear dispersive model are obtained. They illustrate the different regimes of soliton generation and the focusing of frequency modulated wave packets.

Description: Along the eastern coast of Kamchatka, at a number of localities, we have identified and attempted to assign ages to deposits of both historic and prehistoric (paleo-) tsunamis. These deposits are dated and correlated using tephrochronology from Holocene marker tephra and local volcanic ash layers. Because the historical record of earthquakes and tsunamis on Kamchatka is so short, these investigations can make important contributions to evaluating tsunami hazards. Moreover, because even the historical record is spotty, our work helps add to and evaluate tsunami catalogues for Kamchatka. Furthermore, tsunami deposits provide a proxy record for large earthquakes and thus are important paleoseismological tools. The combined, preserved record of tsunami deposits and of numerous marker tephra on Kamchatka offers an unprecedented opportunity to study tsunami frequency. Using combined stratigraphic sections, we can examine both the average frequency of events for each locality, and also changes in frequency through time. Moreover, using key marker tephra as time lines, we can compare tsunami frequency and intensity records along the Kamchatka subduction zone. Preliminary results suggest real variations in frequency on a millennial time scale, with the period from about 0 to 1000 A.D. being particularly active at some localities.

Description: Results of an experimental and theoretical study of the interaction of a first mode internal solitary wave with a localised bottom topography (sill) are presented. Laboratory experiments have been performed in a 10m long and 0.33m wide channel filled with a stratified fluid. The interface between the two layers (fresh and salt water) is diffuse and has a finite thickness. Soliton-type disturbances of the interface having characteristics of the first baroclinic mode are generated at one channel end. They move along the channel and encounter an underwater obstacle (sill) in the middle of the channel, where they break into reflected and transmitted waves. Two types of internal waves are produced by the interaction: a fast first mode internal soliton and a slower (by a factor of approximately 3) second mode soliton-like wave. A numerical model, based on the two-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations in the Boussinesq approximation, is used tore produce the laboratory experiment. The detailed analysis of the horizontal and vertical structures of transmitted and reflected waves showed that the fast reflected and transmitted waves observed in the experiment can be interpreted as a first mode internal solitary wave whose characteristics are very close to those of the K-dV solitons. It is also demonstrated that the slow speed waves, generated during the interaction behind the first fast wave have vertical and horizontal structures very close to the second mode internal K-dV solitons.

Description: Numerical model experiments using slightly rotated terrain are compared to gauge the sentivity of mesoscale forecasts to small perturbations that arise due to small synoptic-scale wind direction errors relative to topographic features. The surface and above surface wind speed errors, as well as the precipitation forecast errors, are examined for a landfalling cold front that occurred during the California Landfalling Jets (CALJET) experiment. The slight rotation in the terrain results in nearly identical synoptic-scale forecasts, but result in substantial forecast errors on the mesoscale in both wind and precipitation. The largest mesoscale errors occur when the front interacts with the topography, which feeds back on the frontal dynamics to produce differing frontal structures, which, in turn, result in mesoscale errors as large as 40% (60%) of the observed mesoscale variability in rainfall (winds). This sensitivity differs for the two rotations and a simple average can still have a substantial error. The magnitude of these errors is very large given the size of the perturbation, which raises concerns about the predictability of the detailed mesoscale structure for landfalling fronts.

Description: Low-frequency turbulence in the solar wind is characterized by a high degree of Alfvénicity close to the Sun. Cross-helicity, which is a measure of Alfvénic correlation, tends to decrease with increasing distance from the Sun at high latitudes as well as in slow-speed streams at low latitudes. In the latter case, large scale inhomogeneities (velocity shears, the heliospheric current sheet) are present, which are sources of decorrelation; yet at high latitudes, the wind is much more homogeneous, and a possible evolution mechanism is represented by the parametric instability. The parametric decay of an circularly polarized broadband Alfvén wave is then investigated, as a source of decorrelation. The time evolution is followed by numerically integrating the full set of nonlinear MHD equations, up to instability saturation. We find that, for   ~ 1, the final cross-helicity is ~ 0.5, corresponding to a partial depletion of the initial correlation. Compressive fluctuations at a moderate level are also present. Most of the spectrum is dominated by forward propagating Alfvénic fluctuations, while backscattered fluctuations dominate large scales. With increasing time, the spectra of Elsässer variables tend to approach each other. Some results concerning quantities measured in the high-latitude wind are reviewed, and a qualitative agreement with the results of the numerical model is found.

Description: In this paper, we show that the behaviour of weakly nonlinear waves in a 2-layer model of baroclinic instability on an f-plane with varying viscosity is determined by a single, degenerate codimension three bifurcation. In the process, we show how previous studies, using the method of multiple scales to derive evolution equations for the slowly varying amplitude of the growing wave, arise as special limits of the general evolution description. A companion study will extend the results to a β-plane.

Description: The singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis is used at different stages in this paper in order to extract useful information concerning the underlying dynamics of the magnetospheric AE index. As a frame of reference we use the dynamics of the Lorenz system perturbed by external noise, white or colored. One of the critical results is that the colored noise can be differentiated from the white noise when we study their perturbation upon the eigenvalue spectrum of the trajectory matrix, the SVD reconstructed components of the original time series and other characteristics. This result is used in order to conclude the existence of strong component of colored noise included in the magnetospheric AE index time series. Moreover, the study of the SVD reconstructed components of the original time series can confirm the low-dimensionality of a dynamical system strongly perturbed by external colored noise. Finally, the results of this study strengthen the hypothesis of the magnetospheric chaos.

Description: The diffusive effect on barotropic models of mesoscale eddies is addressed, using the Melnikov method from dynamical systems. Simple geometric criteria are obtained, which identify whether a given eddy grows or drains out, under a diffusive (and forcing) perturbation on a potential vorticity conserving flow. Qualitatively, the following are shown to be features conducive to eddy growth (and, thereby, stability in a specific sense): (i) large radius of curvature of the eddy boundary, (ii) potential vorticity contours more tightly packed within the eddy than outside, (iii) acute eddy pinch-angle, (iv) small potential vorticity gradient across the eddy boundary, and (v) meridional wind forcing, which increases in the northward direction. The Melnikov approach also suggests how tendrils (filaments) could be formed through the breaking of the eddy boundary, as a diffusion-driven advective process.

Description: We consider the phenomena of intermittent turbulence in magnetized space plasmas from the point of view of topological phase transitions involving the merging and interactions of anisotropic coherent structures. The stochastic behaviour of these coherent plasma structures can undergo complex changes as the dynamic system evolves, similar to those commonly observed in (first and second order) equilibrium phase transitions. When conditions are favourable, such topological entities can evolve into a state of forced and/or self-organized criticality (FSOC). As an example, we apply these ideas to the understanding of the origin of the commonly observed broadband power-law low frequency electric field spectral densities and the characteristic filamentary current structures in the auroral zone. The broadband turbulence can provide efficient resonant energization of the ionospheric oxygen ions.

Description: Measurements of ULF electromagnetic disturbances were carried out in Japan before and during a seismic active period (1 February 2000 to 26 July 2000). A network consists of two groups of magnetic stations spaced apart at a distance of ≈140 km. Every group consists of three, 3-component high sensitive magnetic stations arranged in a triangle and spaced apart at a distance of 4–7 km. The results of the ULF magnetic field variation analysis in a frequency range of F = 0.002–0.5 Hz in connection with nearby earth-quakes are presented. Traditional Z/G ratios (Z is the vertical component, G is the total horizontal component), magnetic gradient vectors and phase velocities of ULF waves propagating along the Earth’s surface were constructed in several frequency bands. It was shown that variations of the R(F) = Z/G parameter have a different character in three frequency ranges: F1 = 0.1 ± 0.005, F2 = 0.01 ± 0.005 and F3 = 0.005 ± 0.003 Hz. Ratio R(F3)/R(F1) sharply increases 1–3 days before strong seismic shocks. Defined in a frequency range of F2 = 0.01 ± 0.005 Hz during nighttime intervals (00:00–06:00 LT), the amplitudes of Z and G component variations and the Z/G ratio started to increase ≈ 1.5 months before the period of the seismic activity. The ULF emissions of higher frequency ranges sharply increased just after the seismic activity start. The magnetic gradient vectors (∇ B ≈ 1 – 5 pT/km), determined using horizontal component data (G ≈ 0.03 – 0.06 nT) of the magnetic stations of every group in the frequency range F = 0.05 ± 0.005 Hz, started to point to the future center of the seismic activity just before the seismoactive period; furthermore they continued following space displacements of the seismic activity center. The phase velocity vectors (V ≈ 20 km/s for F = 0.0067 Hz), determined using horizontal component data, were directed from the seismic activity center. Gradient vectors of the vertical component pointed to the closest seashore (known as the "sea shore" effect). The location of the seismic activity centers by two gradient vectors, constructed at every group of magnetic stations, gives an ≈ 10 km error in this experiment.

Description: A network of three radon stations has been established in the Langadas Basin, northern Greece for radon monitoring by various techniques in earthquake prediction studies. Specially made devices with plastic tubes including Alpha Tracketch Detectors (ATD) were installed for registering alpha particles from radon and radon decay products exhaled from the ground, every 2 weeks, by using LR-115, type II, non-strippable Kodak films, starting from December 1996. Simultaneous measurements started using Lucas cells alpha spectrometer for instantaneous radon measurements in soil gas, before and after setting ATDs at the radon stations. Continuous monitoring of radon gas exhaling from the ground started from the middle of August 1999 by using silicon diode detectors, which simultaneously register meteorological parameters, such as rainfall, temperature and barometric pressure. The obtained data were studied together with the data of seismic events, such as the magnitude, ML, of earthquakes that occurred at the Langadas Basin during the period of measurements, as registered by the Laboratory of Geophysics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, in order to find out any association between them.

Description: Tsunami propagation is analyzed for the Ligurian Sea with particular attention on the French coasts of the Mediterranean. Historical data of tsunami manifestation on the French coast are analyzed for the period 2000 B.C.–1991 A.D. Numerical simulations of potential and historical tsunamis in the Ligurian Sea are done in the context of the nonlinear shallow water theory. Tsunami wave heights as well as their distribution function is calculated for historical tsunamis and it is shown that the log-normal distribution describes reasonably the simulated data. This demonstrates the particular role of bottom irregularities for the wave height distribution function near the coastlines. Also, spectral analysis of numerical tide-gauge records is done for potential tsunamis, revealing the complex resonant interactions between the tsunami waves and the bottom oscillations. It is shown that for an earthquake magnitude of 6.8 (averaged value for the Mediterranean Sea) the tsunami phenomenon has a very local character but with long duration. For sources located near the steep continental slope in the vicinity of the French-Italian Rivera, the tsunami tide-gauge records in the vicinity of Cannes – Imperia present irregular oscillations with a characteristic period of 20–30 min and a total duration of 10–20 h. For the western French coasts the amplitudes are significantly less with characteristic low-frequency oscillations (period of 40 min–1 h).

Description: During the seismic wave propagation through the crust, the electromagnetic pulse can originate due to MHD conversion in this conductive medium. On the assumption of simple models of seismic wave excitation and attenuation, the problem is reduced to the analysis of a diffusion-like equation for a vector potential function. In this way, we need to change the classical gauge condition. A semi-analytical form of the solution is obtained in a case with constant ground conductivity. Dependencies of the electric and magnetic field components and the pulse duration on distance and crust conductivity have been computed in detail. The results could be useful for the explanation of electromagnetic signals related to coseismic, foreshock and aftershock activity.

Description: Regular monitoring of some geophysical parameters in association with seismicity has been carried out since last year at the Japan-Russian Complex Geophysical Observatory in the Kamchatka region. This observatory was organized in connection with the ISTC project in Russia and was motivated by the results of the FRONTIER/RIKEN and FRONTIER/NASDA research projects in Japan. The main purpose of the observations is to investigate the electromagnetic and acoustic phenomena induced by the lithosphere processes (especially by seismic activity). The seismicity of the Kamchatka area is analyzed and a description of the observatory equipment is presented. At present, the activity of the observatory includes the seismic (frequency range ∆F = 0.5 – 40 Hz) and meteorological recordings, together with seismo-acoustic (∆F = 30 – 1000 Hz) and electromagnetic observations: three-component magnetic ULF variations ( ∆F = 0.003 – 30 Hz), three-component electric potential variations ( ∆F 〈 1.0 Hz), and VLF transmitter’s signal perturbations ( ∆F ~ 10 – 40 kHz).

Description: The concept of targeted observations was implemented during field experiments such as FASTEX, NORPEX or WSRP in order to cope with some predictability problems. The techniques of targeting used at that moment (adjoint-based or ensemble transform methods) lead to quite disappointing results: the efficiency of the additional observations deployed over sensitive areas did not turn out to remain consistent from one case to another. The influence of targeted observations on the forecasts could sometimes consist of strong improvements, or sometimes strong degradations. It turns out that the latter failure explains why the concept of optimal sampling arose. The efficiency of adaptive sampling appears to depend on the assimilation scheme that deals with the observations. It is then very useful to integrate the nature of the assimilation algorithm, as well as the deployment of the conventional network of observations (redundancy issues between targeted and conventional network) in the definition of the sensitive pattern to be sampled. Therefore, we chose the tool of the sensitivity to observations to allow us to test such an approach. The sensitivity to targeted observations (that utilizes the adjoint of the linearized NWP model and the adjoint of the assimilation operator) seems to be a suitable tool to obtain an insight into the tricky issue of the optimization of the sampling strategies. To understand better the intrinsic patterns and the influence of the 3D-Var assimilation scheme on the sensitive structures to be sampled, we present here some detailed results on a FASTEX targeting case. We focus on the dropsondes deployed by the Gulfstream IV (jet-aircraft) along its first flight during Intense Observing Period 17 that started on the 17 February 1997. The sensitivity to observation is used as a diagnostic tool for studing targeting from a critical point of view. It is shown that assimilation processes can have an important effect on the classical sensitivity fields, and particularly on their vertical extension. For example, in the studied case, the classical sensitivity fields remain at a lower level than 400 hPa, whereas the sensitivity to observations stretches up to 250 hPa. However, the maximum values can be found at approximately 700 hPa in both sensitivity fields. The studied case shows that the efficiency of observations depends not only on the sensitivity but also on the deviations between the observations and the background field. An example of the use of this diagnosis for comparing the relative efficiency of different kinds of observations is also presented. This work points out that it is very complicated to optimize the efficiency of adaptive observations, and that the assimilation of an entire set of observations (both conventional and adaptive network) needs to be considered.

Description: The performance of single models and ensemble prediction systems has been investigated with respect to quantitative precipitation forecasts. Evaluation is based on the potential economic value of + 72 h/ + 96 h forecasts. The verification procedure consists of taking into account all precipitation amounts that are predicted in the vicinity of an observation in order to compute spatial, multi-event contingency tables. A probabilistic forecast from an ensemble can thus be compared to a probabilistic forecast from a single model run. The main results are the following: (1) The performance of the forecasts increases with the precipitation threshold. High levels of potential value reflect high hit rates that are obtained at the expense of a high frequency of false alarms. (2) The ECMWF ensemble performs better than a single forecast based on the same model, even when the resolution of the ensemble is lower. This is true for the NCEP ensemble as well, but only for morning precipitations. (3) The ECMWF ensemble performs better than the 5-member NCEP ensemble running at 12:00 UTC, even when the population of the former is reduced to 5 members. (4) The impact of reducing the population of the ECMWF ensemble is rather small. Differences between 51 members and 21 members are hardly significant. (5) A 2-member poorman ensemble consisting of the control forecasts of the ECMWF and the NCEP ensembles performs as well as the ECMWF ensemble for afternoon precipitations.

Description: We describe the fundamental differences between weak (wave) turbulence in incompressible and weakly compressible MHD at the level of three-wave interactions. The main difference is in the structure of the resonant manifolds and the mechanisms of redistribution of spectral densities along the applied magnetic field B0. Similar to pure acoustic waves, a three-wave resonance between collinear wave vectors is observed but, in addition, we also have a resonance through tilted planes and spheres. The properties of resonances and their consequences for the asymptotics are also discussed.

Description: We investigate the evolution of magnetic helicity density in the course of 2D and 3D kinetic magnetic reconnection through thin current sheets. In 2D, the helicity density near a reconnection X-line becomes purely quadrupolar structured, while in 3D, an additional dipolar structure occurs. This dipolar structure is related to kinetic current instabilities and becomes dominant for spontaneous 3D reconnection, in accordance with the dominating current instabilities. The 2D simulations have been carried out with a newly developed Vlasov-code and the 3D simulations with the particle-in-cell code GISMO.

Description: In this paper we discuss some theoretical results obtained for climate models (theorems for the existence of global attractors and inertial manifolds, estimates of attractor dimension and Lyapunov exponents, symmetry property of Lyapunov spectrum). We define the conditions for "quasi-regular behaviour" of a climate system. Under these conditions, the system behaviour is subject to the Kraichnan fluctuation-dissipation relation. This fact allows us to solve the problem of determining a system's sensitivity to small perturbations to an external forcing. The applicability of the above approach to the analysis of the climate system sensitivity is verified numerically with the example of the two-layer quasi-geostrophic atmospheric model.

Description: Quantitative measures of the uncertainty of Earth system estimates can be as important as the estimates themselves. Direct calculation of second moments of estimation errors, as described by the covariance matrix, is impractical when the number of degrees of freedom of the system state is large and the sources of uncertainty are not completely known. Theoretical analysis of covariance equations can help guide the formulation of low-rank covariance approximations, such as those used in ensemble and reduced-state approaches for prediction and data assimilation. We use the singular value decomposition and recently developed positive map techniques to analyze a family of covariance equations that includes stochastically forced linear systems. We obtain covariance estimates given imperfect knowledge of the sources of uncertainty and we obtain necessary conditions for low-rank approximations to be appropriate. The results are illustrated in a stochastically forced system with time-invariant linear dynamics.

Description: Two-dimensional vortex pairs are frequently observed in geophysical conditions, for example, in a shelf zone of the ocean near river mouths. The main aims of the work are to estimate the space scales of such vortex structures, to analyze possible scenarios of vortex pair motion and to give the qualitative classification of their trajectories. We discuss some features of the motion of strong localized vorticity concentrations in a given flow in the presence of boundaries. The analyses are made in the framework of a 2D point vortex mo-del with an open polygonal boundary. Estimations are made for the characteristic parameters of dipole vortex structures emitted from river mouths into the open ocean.

Description: We study the flow obtained from a three-layer, eddy-resolving quasigeostrophic ocean circulation model subject to an applied wind stress curl. For this model we will consider transport between the northern and southern gyres separated by an eastward jet. We will focus on the use of techniques from dynamical systems theory, particularly lobe dynamics, in the forming of geometric structures that govern transport. By "govern", we mean they can be used to compute Lagrangian transport quantities, such as the flux across the jet. We will consider periodic, quasiperiodic, and chaotic velocity fields, and thus assess the effectiveness of dynamical systems techniques in flows with progressively more spatio-temporal complexity. The numerical methods necessary to implement the dynamical systems techniques and the significance of lobe dynamics as a signature of specific "events", such as rings pinching off from a meandering jet, are also discussed.

Description: Current day operational ensemble weather prediction systems generally rely upon perturbed atmospheric initial states, thereby neglecting the eventual effect on the atmospheric evolution that uncertainties in initial soil temperature and moisture fields could bring about during the summer months. The purpose of this study is to examine the role of the soil states in medium-range weather predictability. A limited area weather prediction model is used with the atmosphere/ land-surface system in coupled or uncoupled mode. It covers Europe and part of the north Atlantic, and is driven by prescribed sea-surface temperatures over the sea, and by atmospheric reanalyses at its lateral boundaries. A series of  3 member ensembles of summer simulations are used to assess the predictability of a reference simulation assumed to be perfect. In a first step, two ensembles are simulated: the first with the atmosphere coupled to the land-surface model, the second in the uncoupled mode with perfect soil conditions prescribed every 6 hours. Subsequent experiments are combinations thereof, in which the uncoupled and coupled modes alternate in the course of a simulation. The results show that there are "stable" and "unstable" periods in the weather evolution under consideration. During the stable periods, the predictability (measured in terms of ensemble spread at 500 hPa) of the coupled and uncoupled dynamical systems is almost identical; prescribing the perfect soil conditions has a negligible impact upon the atmospheric predictability. In contrast, the predictability during an unstable phase is found to be remarkably improved in the uncoupled ensembles. This effect results from guiding the atmospheric phase-space trajectory along its perfect evolution. It persists even when switching back from the uncoupled to the coupled mode prior to the onset of the unstable phase, a result that underlines the importance of soil moisture and temperature in data assimilation systems.

Description: In the light of recent advances in 2D turbulence, we investigate the long range predictability problem of atmospheric flows. Using 2D Euler equations, we show that the full nonlinearity acting on a large number of degrees of freedom can, paradoxically, improve the predictability of the large scale motion, giving a picture opposite to the one largely popularized by Lorenz: a small local perturbation of the atmosphere will progressively gain larger and larger scales by nonlinear interaction and will finally cause large scale change in the atmospheric flow.

Description: Many existing hydrological modelling procedures do not make best use of available information, resulting in non-minimal uncertainties in model structure and parameters, and a lack of detailed information regarding model behaviour. A framework is required that balances the level of model complexity supported by the available data with the level of performance suitable for the desired application. Tools are needed that make optimal use of the information available in the data to identify model structure and parameters, and that allow a detailed analysis of model behaviour. This should result in appropriate levels of model complexity as a function of available data, hydrological system characteristics and modelling purpose. This paper introduces an analytical framework to achieve this, and tools to use within it, based on a multi-objective approach to model calibration and analysis. The utility of the framework is demonstrated with an example from the field of rainfall-runoff modelling. Keywords: hydrological modelling, multi-objective calibration, model complexity, parameter identifiability

Description: This paper presents a pre- and post-harvest comparison of stream temperatures collected in five neighbouring streams (sub-catchments) over a period of five years (1994-1998). The aim of the study was to determine whether land cover changes from clear cutting in areas outside forest buffer zones (applied to streams 〉0.5 m wide) might contribute to an increase in summer mean stream temperatures in buffered streams downslope by infusion of warmed surface and sub-surface water into the streams. Specific relationships were observed in all five forest streams investigated. To assist in the analysis, several spatially-relevant variables, such as land cover change, mid-summer potential solar radiation, flow accumulation, stream location and slope of the land were determined, in part, from existing aerial photographs, GIS-archived forest inventory data and a digital terrain model of the study area. Spatial calculations of insolation levels for July 15th were used as an index of mid-summer solar heating across sub-catchments. Analysis indicated that prior to the 1995 harvest, differences in stream temperature could be attributed to (i) topographic position and catchment-to-sun orientation, (ii) the level of cutting that occurred in the upper catchment prior to the start of the study, and (iii) the average slope within harvested areas. Compared to the pre-harvest mean stream temperatures in 1994, mean temperatures in the three streams downslope from the 1995 harvest areas increased by 0.3 to 0.7°C (representing a 4-8% increase; p-value of normalised temperatures

Description: Winter precipitation variability over the Iberian peninsula was investigated by obtaining the spatial and temporal patterns. Empirical Orthogonal Functions were used to describe the variance distribution and to compress the precipitation data into a few modes. The corresponding spatial patterns divide the peninsula into climatic regions according to precipitation variations. The associated time series were related to large scale circulation indices and tropical sea surface temperature anomalies by using lag cross-correlation and cross-spectrum. The major findings are: the most influential indices for winter precipitation were the North Atlantic Oscillation and the East Atlantic/West Russian pattern; coherent oscillations were detected at about eight years between precipitation and the North Atlantic Oscillation and some dynamic consequences of the circulation on precipitation over the Iberian peninsula were examined during drought and wet spells. In the end statistical methods have been proposed to downscale seasonal precipitation prediction. Keywords: Winter precipitation, circulation indices, Iberian peninsula climate, climate variations, precipitation trend

Description: Surface soil moisture and the nature of the overlying vegetation both influence microwave emission from land surfaces significantly. One widely discussed but underused method for allowing for the effect of vegetation on soil-moisture retrievals from microwave observations is to use remotely sensed vegetation indices. This paper explores the potential for using the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in soil-moisture retrievals from L-band (1.4 GHz) aircraft data gathered during the Southern Great Plains '97 (SGP97) experiment. A simplified version of MICRO-SWEAT, a soil vegetation atmosphere transfer (SVAT) scheme coupled with a microwave emission model, was used as the retrieval algorithm. Estimates of the optical depth of the vegetation, the parameter that describes the effect of the vegetation on microwave emission, were obtained by calibrating this retrieval algorithm against measurements of soil moisture at 15 field sites. A significant relationship was found between the optical depth so obtained and the observed NDVI at these sites, although this relationship changed with the resolution of the microwave brightness temperature observations used. Soil-moisture estimates made with the retrieval algorithm using the empirical relationship between optical depth and NDVI applied at two additional sites not used in the calibration show good agreement with field measurements. Keywords: NDVI, soil moisture, passive microwave, SGP97