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  • 1
    Publikationsdatum: 2020-11-18
    Beschreibung: Heavy rainfall and flooding associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) are responsible for a large number of fatalities and economic damage worldwide. Despite their large socio-economic impacts, research into heavy rainfall and flooding associated with TCs has received limited attention to date, and still represents a major challenge. Our capability to adapt to future changesin heavy rainfall and flooding associated with TCs is inextricably linked to and informed by ourunderstanding of the sensitivity of TC rainfall to likely future forcing mechanisms. Here we use a set of idealized high-resolution atmospheric model experiments produced as part of the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group activity to examine TC response to idealized global-scale perturbations: the doubling of CO2, uniform 2K increases in global sea surface temperature(SST), and their combined impact. As a preliminary but key step, daily rainfall patterns ofcomposite TCs within climate model outputs are first compared and contrasted to the observational records. To assess similarities and differences across different regions in response to the warming scenarios, analyses are performed at the global and hemispheric scales and in six global TC ocean basins. The results indicate a reduction in TC daily precipitation rates in the doubling CO2 scenario (on the order of 5% globally), and an increase in TC rainfall rates associated with a uniform increase of 2K in SST (both alone and in combination with CO2 doubling; on the order of 10-20% globally).
    Beschreibung: Published
    Beschreibung: 4622–4641
    Beschreibung: 4A. Clima e Oceani
    Beschreibung: JCR Journal
    Beschreibung: open
    Schlagwort(e): tropical cyclones ; precipitation ; rainfall ; extreme events ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Materialart: article
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 2
    Publikationsdatum: 2020-12-21
    Beschreibung: We detail the Kamil crater (Egypt) structure and refine the impact scenario, based on the geological and geophysical data collected during our first expedition in February 2010. Kamil Crater is a model for terrestrial small-scale hypervelocity impact craters. It is an exceptionally well-preserved, simple crater with a diameter of 45 m, depth of 10 m, and rayed pattern of bright ejecta. It occurs in a simple geological context: flat, rocky desert surface, and target rocks comprising subhorizontally layered sandstones. The high depth-to-diameter ratio of the transient crater, its concave, yet asymmetric, bottom, and the fact that Kamil Crater is not part of a crater field confirm that it formed by the impact of a single iron mass (or a tight cluster of fragments) that fragmented upon hypervelocity impact with the ground. The circular crater shape and asymmetries in ejecta and shrapnel distributions coherently indicate a direction of incidence from the NW and an impact angle of approximately 30 to 45 . Newly identified asymmetries, including the off-center bottom of the transient crater floor downrange, maximum overturning of target rocks along the impact direction, and lower crater rim elevation downrange, may be diagnostic of oblique impacts in well-preserved craters. Geomagnetic data reveal no buried individual impactor masses 〉100 kg and suggest that the total mass of the buried shrapnel 〉100 g is approximately 1050–1700 kg. Based on this mass value plus that of shrapnel 〉10 g identified earlier on the surface during systematic search, the new estimate of the minimum projectile mass is approximately 5 t.
    Beschreibung: Published
    Beschreibung: 1842–1868
    Beschreibung: 3.8. Geofisica per l'ambiente
    Beschreibung: JCR Journal
    Beschreibung: restricted
    Schlagwort(e): Impact craters ; geophysical survey ; iron meteorite ; impact scenario ; 04. Solid Earth::04.02. Exploration geophysics::04.02.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.02. Exploration geophysics::04.02.07. Instruments and techniques ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Materialart: article
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  • 3
    Publikationsdatum: 2020-12-07
    Beschreibung: We present new stratigraphic, palaeomagnetic, 87Sr/86Sr and 40Ar/39Ar data from a lacustrine succession of the Sulmona basin, central Italy, which, according to an early study, included six unconformitybounded lacustrine units (from SUL6, oldest, to SUL1, youngest) spanning the interval 〉600 to 2 ka. The results of the present study, on the one hand confirm some of the previous conclusions, but by contrast reveal that units SUL2 and SUL1, previously attributed to the Holocene, are actually equivalent to the older SUL6 and SUL5 units – here dated to 814–〉530 ka and 530–〈457 ka, respectively – and that the U-series dates previously published for both former SUL2 and SUL1 units yielded abnormally young ages. In light of the present results, a reassessment of the chronology of the Sulmona basin succession and a revision of the tephrostratigraphy of the SUL2/SUL6 and SUL1/SUL5 units is in order.
    Beschreibung: Published
    Beschreibung: 545–551
    Beschreibung: 2.2. Laboratorio di paleomagnetismo
    Beschreibung: JCR Journal
    Beschreibung: restricted
    Schlagwort(e): 40Ar/39Ar dating; central Italy ; Sr isotope composition ; Sulmona lacustrine succession ; Brunhes–Matuyama geomagnetic reversal ; tephrostratigraphy ; U-series dating ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.08. Sediments: dating, processes, transport ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.10. Stratigraphy ; 04. Solid Earth::04.05. Geomagnetism::04.05.06. Paleomagnetism
    Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Materialart: article
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 4
    Publikationsdatum: 2020-12-15
    Beschreibung: We present a time-independent gridded earthquake rate forecast for the European region including Turkey. The spatial component of our model is based on kernel density estimation techniques, which we applied to both past earthquake locations and fault moment release on mapped crustal faults and subduction zone interfaces with assigned slip rates. Our forecast relies on the assumption that the locations of past seismicity is a good guide to future seismicity, and that future large-magnitude events occur more likely in the vicinity of known faults. We show that the optimal weighted sum of the corresponding two spatial densities depends on the magnitude range considered. The kernel bandwidths and density weighting function are optimized using retrospective likelihood-based forecast experiments. We computed earthquake activity rates (a- and b-value) of the truncated Gutenberg–Richter distribution separately for crustal and subduction seismicity based on a maximum likelihood approach that considers the spatial and temporal completeness history of the catalogue. The final annual rate of our forecast is purely driven by the maximum likelihood fit of activity rates to the catalogue data, whereas its spatial component incorporates contributions from both earthquake and fault moment-rate densities. Our model constitutes one branch of the earthquake source model logic tree of the 2013 European seismic hazard model released by the EU-FP7 project ‘Seismic HAzard haRmonization in Europe’ (SHARE) and contributes to the assessment of epistemic uncertainties in earthquake activity rates. We performed retrospective and pseudo-prospective likelihood consistency tests to underline the reliability of our model and SHARE’s area source model (ASM) using the testing algorithms applied in the collaboratory for the study of earthquake predictability (CSEP). We comparatively tested our model’s forecasting skill against the ASM and find a statistically significant better performance for testing periods of 10–20 yr. The testing results suggest that our model is a viable candidate model to serve for long-term forecasting on timescales of years to decades for the European region.
    Beschreibung: EC-Research FP7-projects, SHARE, under grant agreement No. 226967 and NERA, under grant agreement No. 262330
    Beschreibung: Published
    Beschreibung: 1159-1172
    Beschreibung: 2T. Tettonica attiva
    Beschreibung: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Beschreibung: JCR Journal
    Beschreibung: restricted
    Schlagwort(e): Probabilistic forecasting ; Statistical seismology ; Europe ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Materialart: article
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 5
    Publikationsdatum: 2021-06-16
    Beschreibung: While a quantitative climate theory of tropical cyclone formation remains elusive, considerable progress has been made recently in our ability to simulate tropical cyclone climatologies and understand the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation. Climate models are now able to simulate a realistic rate of global tropical cyclone formation, although simulation of the Atlantic tropical cyclone climatology remains challenging unless horizontal resolutions finer than 50 km are employed. This article summarizes published research from the idealized experiments of the Hurricane Working Group of U.S. CLIVAR (CLImate VARiability and predictability of the ocean-atmosphere system). This work, combined with results from other model simulations, has strengthened relationships between tropical cyclone formation rates and climate variables such as mid-tropospheric vertical velocity, with decreased climatological vertical velocities leading to decreased tropical cyclone formation. Systematic differences are shown between experiments in which only sea surface temperature is increased versus experiments where only atmospheric carbon dioxide is increased, with the carbon dioxide experiments more likely to demonstrate the decrease in tropical cyclone numbers previously shown to be a common response of climate models in a warmer climate. Experiments where the two effects are combined also show decreases in numbers, but these tend to be less for models that demonstrate a strong tropical cyclone response to increased sea surface temperatures. Further experiments are proposed that may improve our understanding of the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation, including experiments with two-way interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere and variations in atmospheric aerosols.
    Beschreibung: Published
    Beschreibung: 997–1017
    Beschreibung: 4A. Clima e Oceani
    Beschreibung: JCR Journal
    Beschreibung: restricted
    Schlagwort(e): tropical cyclones ; hurricanes ; climate change ; CLIVAR ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Materialart: article
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  • 6
    Publikationsdatum: 2020-12-15
    Beschreibung: Seismogram envelopes recorded at Campi Flegrei caldera show diffusive characteristics as well as steep amplitude increases in the intermediate and late coda, which can be related to the presence of a non-uniformly scattering medium. In this paper, we first show the results of a simulation with a statistical model considering anisotropic scattering interactions, in order to match coda-envelope duration and shape.We consider as realistic parameters for a volcanic caldera the presence of large square root velocity fluctuations (10 per cent) and two typical correlation lengths for such an heterogeneous crust, a = 0.1 and 1 km. Then, we propose the inclusion of a diffusive boundary condition in the stochastic description of multiple scattering, in order to model intermediate and late coda intensities, and particularly the sharp intensity peaks at some stations in the caldera. Finally, we show that a reliable 2-D synthetic model of the envelopes produced by earthquakes vertically sampling a small region can be obtained including a single drastic change of the scattering properties of the volcano, that is, a caldera rim of radius 3 km, and sections varying between 2 and 3 km. These boundary conditions are diffusive, which signifies that the rim must have more scattering potential than the rest of the medium, with its diffusivity 2–3 orders of magnitude lower than the one of the background medium, so that the secondary sources on its interface(s) could enhance coda intensities. We achieve a good first-order model of high-frequency (18 Hz) envelope broadening adding to the Monte Carlo solution for the incident flux the secondary source effects produced by a closed annular boundary, designed on the caldera rim signature at 1.5 km depth. At lower frequencies (3 Hz) the annular boundary controls the intermediate and late coda envelope behaviour, in a way similar to an extended diffusive source. In our interpretation, the anomalous intensities observed at several stations and predicted by the final Monte Carlo solutions are mainly due to the diffusive transmission reflection from a scattering object of increased scattering power, and are controlled by its varying thickness.
    Beschreibung: This work was carried out under the HPC-Europa2 project (project number: 228398) with the support of the European Commission Capacities Area-Research Infrastructures Initiative. We thank the whole staff at EPCC (Edinburgh Parallel Computing Centre) in Edinburgh and particularly Dr. Adam Carter for their help in both developing and parallelizing the code. The challenging comments and suggestions of the editor and two anonymous reviewers helped both in focusing the aim and in overcoming the strong limits of a previous version of the paper.
    Beschreibung: Published
    Beschreibung: 1102–1119
    Beschreibung: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Beschreibung: JCR Journal
    Beschreibung: restricted
    Schlagwort(e): Numerical solutions; ; Seismic anisotropy; ; Seismic attenuation ; Seismic tomography ; Wave scattering and diffraction ; Calderas ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.09. Waves and wave analysis
    Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Materialart: article
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  • 7
    Publikationsdatum: 2021-06-30
    Beschreibung: In the present work, the Differential SAR Interferometry (DInSAR) technique has been applied to study the surface movements affecting the sedimentary basin of Cassino municipality. Two datasets of SAR images, provided by ERS 1-2 and Envisat missions, have been acquired from 1992 to 2010. Such datasets have been processed independently each other and with different techniques nevertheless providing compatible results. DInSAR data show a subsidence rate mostly located in the northeast side of the city, with a subsidence rate decreasing from about 5–6 mm/yr in the period 1992–2000 to about 1–2 mm/yr between 2004 and 2010, highlighting a progressive reduction of the phenomenon. Based on interferometric results and geological/geotechnical observations, the explanation of the detected movements allows to confirm the anthropogenic (surface effect due to building construction) and geological causes (thickness and characteristics of the compressible stratum)
    Beschreibung: Published
    Beschreibung: 9676-9690
    Beschreibung: 6A. Monitoraggio ambientale, sicurezza e territorio
    Beschreibung: JCR Journal
    Beschreibung: open
    Schlagwort(e): Differential SAR Interferometry; SBAS; IPTA; Cassino plain; subsidence ; 04. Solid Earth::04.01. Earth Interior::04.01.02. Geological and geophysical evidences of deep processes
    Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Materialart: article
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  • 8
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    Unbekannt
    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Physical Oceanography, American Meteorological Society, 44(8), pp. 2093-2106, ISSN: 0022-3670
    Publikationsdatum: 2019-07-16
    Beschreibung: The recently proposed Internal Wave Dissipation, Energy and Mixing (IDEMIX) model, describing the propagation and dissipation of internal gravity waves in the ocean, is extended. Compartments describing the energy contained in the internal tides and the near-inertial waves at low, vertical wavenumber are added to a compartment of the wave continuum at higher wavenumbers. Conservation equations for each compartment are derived based on integrated versions of the radiative transfer equation of weakly interacting waves. The compartments interact with each other by the scattering of tidal energy to the wave continuum by triad wave– wave interactions, which are strongly enhanced equatorward of 288 due to parametric subharmonic instability of the tide and by scattering to the continuum of both tidal and near-inertial wave energy over rough topography and at continental margins. Global numerical simulations of the resulting model using observed stratification, forcing functions, and bottom topography yield good agreement with available observations.
    Repository-Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Materialart: Article , isiRev
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 9
    Publikationsdatum: 2014-10-14
    Beschreibung: The composition and abundance of algal pigments provide information on characteristics of a phytoplankton community in respect to its photoacclimation, overall biomass, and taxonomic composition. Particularly, these pigments play a major role in photoprotection and in the light-driven part of photosynthesis. Most phytoplankton pigments can be measured by High Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC) techniques to filtered water samples. This method, like others when water samples have to be analysed in the laboratory, is time consuming and therefore only a limited number of data points can be obtained. In order to receive information on phytoplankton pigment composition with a higher temporal and spatial resolution, we have developed a method to assess pigment concentrations from continuous optical measurements. The method applies an Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis to remote sensing reflectance data derived from ship-based hyper-spectral underwater radiometric and from multispectral satellite data (using the MERIS Polymer product developed by Steinmetz et al., 2011) measured in the Eastern Tropical Atlantic. Subsequently we developed statistically linear models with measured (collocated) pigment concentrations as the response variable and EOF loadings as predictor variables. The model results, show that surface concentrations of a suite of pigments and pigment groups can be well predicted from the ship-based reflectance measurements, even when only a multi-spectral resolution is chosen (i.e. eight bands similar to those used by MERIS). Based on the MERIS reflectance data, concentrations of total and monovinyl chlorophyll a and the groups of photoprotective and photosynthetic carotenoids can be predicted with high quality. The fitted statistical model constructed on the satellite reflectance data as input was applied to one month of MERIS Polymer data to predict the concentration of those pigment groups for the whole Eastern Tropical Atlantic area. Bootstrapping explorations of cross-validation error indicate that the method can produce reliable predictions with relatively small data sets (e.g., 〈 50 collocated values of reflectance and pigment concentration). The method allows for the derivation of time series from continuous reflectance data of various pigment groups at various regions, which can be used to study variability and change of phytoplankton composition and photo-physiology.
    Repository-Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Materialart: Article , notRev
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 10
    facet.materialart.
    Unbekannt
    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, 27(10), pp. 3784-3801, ISSN: 0894-8755
    Publikationsdatum: 2014-05-15
    Beschreibung: Unlike the rapid sea ice losses reported in the Arctic, satellite observations show an overall increase in Antarctic sea ice concentration over recent decades. However, observations of decadal trends in Antarctic ice thickness, and hence ice volume, do not currently exist. In this study a model of the Southern Ocean and its sea ice, forced by atmospheric reanalyses, is used to assess 1992–2010 trends in ice thickness and volume. The model successfully reproduces observations of mean ice concentration, thickness, and drift, and decadal trends in ice concentration and drift, imparting some confidence in the hindcasted trends in ice thickness. The model suggests that overall Antarctic sea ice volume has increased by approximately 30 km3 yr−1 (0.4% yr−1) as an equal result of areal expansion (20 × 103 km2 yr−1 or 0.2% yr−1) and thickening (1.5 mm yr−1 or 0.2% yr−1). This ice volume increase is an order of magnitude smaller than the Arctic decrease, and about half the size of the increased freshwater supply from the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Similarly to the observed ice concentration trends, the small overall increase in modeled ice volume is actually the residual of much larger opposing regional trends. Thickness changes near the ice edge follow observed concentration changes, with increasing concentration corresponding to increased thickness. Ice thickness increases are also found in the inner pack in the Amundsen and Weddell Seas, where the model suggests that observed ice-drift trends directed toward the coast have caused dynamical thickening in autumn and winter. Modeled changes are predominantly dynamic in origin in the Pacific sector and thermodynamic elsewhere.
    Repository-Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Materialart: Article , isiRev
    Format: application/pdf
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