ALBERT

Beschreibung: The microphysical processes inside convective clouds play an important role in climate. They directly control the amount of detrainment of cloud hydrometeor and water vapor from updrafts. The detrained water substance in turn affects the anvil cloud formation, upper-tropospheric water vapor distribution, and thus the atmospheric radiation budget. In global climate models, convective parameterization schemes have not explicitly represented microphysics processes in updrafts until recently. In this paper, the authors provide a review of existing schemes for convective microphysics parameterization. These schemes are broadly divided into three groups: tuning-parameter-based schemes (simplest), single-moment schemes, and two-moment schemes (most comprehensive). Common weaknesses of the tuning-parameter-based and single-moment schemes are outlined. Examples are presented from one of the two-moment schemes to demonstrate the performance of the scheme in simulating the hydrometeor distribution in convection and its representation of the effect of aerosols on convection.

Beschreibung: The authors present an observationally based evaluation of the vertically resolved cloud ice water content (CIWC) and vertically integrated cloud ice water path (CIWP) as well as radiative shortwave flux downward at the surface (RSDS), reflected shortwave (RSUT), and radiative longwave flux upward at top of atmosphere (RLUT) of present-day global climate models (GCMs), notably twentieth-century simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), and compare these results to those of the third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) and two recent reanalyses. Three different CloudSat and/or Cloud–Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) combined ice water products and two methods are used to remove the contribution from the convective core ice mass and/or precipitating cloud hydrometeors with variable sizes and falling speeds so that a robust observational estimate can be obtained for model evaluations. The results show that, for annual mean CIWC and CIWP, there are factors of 2–10 (either over- or underestimate) in the differences between observations and models for a majority of the GCMs and for a number of regions. Most of the GCMs in CMIP3 and CMIP5 significantly underestimate the total ice water mass because models only consider suspended cloud mass, ignoring falling and convective core cloud mass. For the annual means of RSDS, RLUT, and RSUT, a majority of the models have significant regional biases ranging from −30 to 30 W m−2. Based on these biases in the annual means, there is virtually no progress in the simulation fidelity of RSDS, RLUT, and RSUT fluxes from CMIP3 to CMIP5, even though there is about a 50% bias reduction improvement of global annual mean CIWP from CMIP3 to CMIP5. It is concluded that at least a part of these persistent biases stem from the common GCM practice of ignoring the effects of precipitating and/or convective core ice and liquid in their radiation calculations.

Beschreibung: Yanai and coauthors utilized the meteorological data collected from a sounding network to present a pioneering work in 1973 on thermodynamic budgets, which are referred to as the apparent heat source (Q1) and apparent moisture sink (Q2). Latent heating (LH) is one of the most dominant terms in Q1. Yanai’s paper motivated the development of satellite-based LH algorithms and provided a theoretical background for imposing large-scale advective forcing into cloud-resolving models (CRMs). These CRM-simulated LH and Q1 data have been used to generate the look-up tables in Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) LH algorithms. A set of algorithms developed for retrieving LH profiles from TRMM-based rainfall profiles is described and evaluated, including details concerning their intrinsic space–time resolutions. Included in the paper are results from a variety of validation analyses that define the uncertainty of the LH profile estimates. Also, examples of how TRMM-retrieved LH profiles have been used to understand the life cycle of the MJO and improve the predictions of global weather and climate models as well as comparisons with large-scale analyses are provided. Areas for further improvement of the TRMM products are discussed.

Beschreibung: The authors survey a series of modeling studies that have examined the influences that cloud microphysical processes can have on tropical cyclone (TC) motion, the strength and breadth of the wind field, inner-core diabatic heating asymmetries, outer-core convective activity, and the characteristics of the TC anvil cloud. These characteristics are sensitive to the microphysical parameterization (MP) in large part owing to the cloud-radiative forcing (CRF), the interaction of hydrometeors with radiation. The most influential component of CRF is that due to absorption and emission of longwave radiation in the anvil, which via gentle lifting directly encourages the more extensive convective activity that then leads to a radial expansion of the TC wind field. On a curved Earth, the magnitude of the outer winds helps determine the speed and direction of TC motion via the beta drift. CRF also influences TC motion by determining how convective asymmetries develop in the TC inner core. Further improvements in TC forecasting may require improved understanding and representation of cloud-radiative processes in operational models, and more comprehensive comparisons with observations are clearly needed.

Beschreibung: The Asian monsoon is a planetary-scale circulation system powered by the release of latent heat, but important features of deep convection and rainfall distribution cannot be adequately represented by the large-scale patterns. This is mainly due to the strong influences of terrain that are important across a wide range of horizontal scales, especially over the Maritime Continent where the complex terrain has a dominant effect on the behavior of convective rainfall during the boreal winter monsoon. This chapter is a review and summary of published results on the effects on monsoon convection due to interactions between the Maritime Continent terrain and large-scale transient systems. The Maritime Continent topographic features strongly affect both the demarcation of the boreal summer and winter monsoon regimes and the asymmetric seasonal marches during the transition seasons. In the western part of the region, the complex interactions that lead to variability in deep convection are primarily controlled by the cold surges and the synoptic-scale Borneo vortex. The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) reduces the frequency of weaker surges through an interference with their structure. It also influences convection, particularly on the diurnal cycle and when synoptic activities are weak. When both surges and the Borneo vortex are present, interactions between these circulations with the terrain can cause the strongest convection, which has included Typhoon Vamei (2001), which is the only observed tropical cyclone that developed within 1.5° of the equator. The cold surges are driven by midlatitude pressure rises associated with the movement of the Siberian high. Rapid strengthening of surge northeasterly winds can be explained as the tropical response via a geostrophic adjustment process to the pressure forcing in the form of an equatorial Rossby wave group. Dispersion of meridional modes leads to a northeast–southwest orientation that allows the surge to stream downstream through the similarly oriented South China Sea. This evolution leads to a cross-equatorial return flow and a cyclonic circulation at the equator, and thus a mechanism for equatorial cyclogenesis. Although the narrow width of the southern South China Sea facilitates strengthening of the cold surge, it also severely restricts the likelihood of cyclone development so that Vamei remains to be the only typhoon observed in the equatorial South China Sea. Climate variations from El Niño–Southern Oscillation to climate change may impact the interactions between the large-scale motion and Maritime Continent terrain because they lead to changes in the mean flow. The thermodynamic effects on the interaction between MJO and the monsoon surges and Borneo vortex over the complex terrain also need to be addressed. These and other questions such as any possible changes in the likelihood of equatorial tropical cyclogenesis as a result of climate change are all important areas for future research.

Beschreibung: Insights by Professor Michio Yanai on tropical waves, which have been vital ingredients for progress in tropical meteorology over the last half-century, are recollected. This study revisits various aspects of research on tropical waves over the last five decades to examine, in Yanai’s words, “the nature of ‘A-scale’ tropical wave disturbances and the interaction of the waves and the ‘B-scale’ phenomena (cloud clusters),” the fundamental problem posed by Yanai at the design phase of the GARP Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE) in 1971. The various contributions of Michio Yanai to the current understanding of the dynamics of the tropical atmosphere are briefly reviewed to show how his work has led to several current theories in this field.

Beschreibung: It is well known that the envelope of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) consists of smaller-scale convective systems, including mesoscale convective systems (MCS), tropical cyclones, and synoptic-scale waves called “convectively coupled equatorial waves” (CCW). In fact, recent results suggest that the fundamental mechanisms of the MJO involve interactions between the synoptic-scale CCW and their larger-scale environment (Majda and Stechmann). In light of this, this chapter reviews recent and past work on two-way interactions between convective systems—both MCSs and CCW—and their larger-scale environment, with a particular focus given to recent work on MJO–CCW interactions.

Beschreibung: This volume consists of some papers presented at the AMS Symposium held to honor the memory of the late Professor Michio Yanai as well as additional works inspired by his research. By the nature of this volume, many of the contributed papers describe the development of tropical meteorology over the past half-century or so in connection with Professor Yanai’s influence on it. While most of the chapters address specific areas and discuss timely issues, in this prologue I will describe some of Professor Yanai’s contributions during the early period of his career from my own point of view. As this is a personal reminiscence, I would like to emphasize how Professor Yanai influenced me. Both Professor Yanai and I became graduate students at the University of Tokyo to begin our career as meteorologists in 1956 and 1957, respectively. Since we studied and worked together so closely for a long time, in this article I will call him Yanai-san as I have done in our personal interactions.

Beschreibung: This chapter reviews Professor Michio Yanai’s contributions to the discovery and science of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). Professor Yanai’s work on equatorial waves played an inspirational role in the MJO discovery by Roland Madden and Paul Julian. Professor Yanai also made direct and important contributions to MJO research. These research contributions include work on the vertically integrated moist static energy budget, cumulus momentum transport, eddy available potential energy and eddy kinetic energy budgets, and tropical–extratropical interactions. Finally, Professor Yanai left a legacy through his students, who continue to push the bounds of MJO research.

Beschreibung: Two features of Yanai et al.’s profiles of Q1 and Q2—the commonly observed double-peak structure to Q2 and an inflection in the Q1 profile below the melting level—are explored using estimates of convective and stratiform rainfall partitioning based on Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) radar reflectivity data collected during TOGA COARE. The MIT radar data allow the Q1 and Q2 profiles to be classified according to stratiform rain fraction within the radar domain and, within the limitations of the datasets, allow interpretations to be made about the relative contributions of convective and stratiform precipitation to the mean profiles. The sorting of Q2 by stratiform rain fraction leads to the confirmation of previous findings that the double-peak structure in the mean profile is a result of a combination of separate contributions of convective and stratiform precipitation. The convective contribution, which has a drying peak in the lower troposphere, combines with a stratiform drying peak aloft and low-level moistening peak to yield a double-peak structure. With respect to the inflection in the Q1 profile below the 0°C level, this feature appears to be a manifestation of melting. It is the significant horizontal dimension of the stratiform components of tropical convective systems that yields a small but measurable imprint on the large-scale temperature and moisture stratification upon which the computations of Q1 and Q2 are based. The authors conclude, then, that the rather subtle features in the Q1/Q2 profiles of Yanai et al. are directly linked to the prominence of stratiform precipitation within tropical precipitation systems.

Beschreibung: This monograph on convection-coupled systems in the tropics was inspired by the life and career of Professor Michio Yanai, whose major contributions to the subject spanned more than five decades. From a distant perspective, Professor Yanai’s career can be understood in the context of Japanese scientists who immigrated to the United States in the decades of the 1950s and 1960s, enriching the meteorological research community in the United States as well as abroad (Lewis 1993). A closer look reminds us that the tapestry of scientific progress is created by the contributions of individual scientists with their unique backgrounds, motivations, and talents, and the serendipity of events that shape their lives.

Beschreibung: Professor Yanai is remembered in our hearts as an esteemed friend. Based on his accomplishments in tropical meteorology and with his flashes of insight he led his group at the University of California, Los Angeles, in the 1980s and 1990s to explore the thermal features of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and its relation to the Asian monsoon, and he brought forward the TP meteorology established by Ye Duzheng et al. in 1957 to a new stage. In cherishing the memory of Professor Yanai and his great contribution to the TP meteorology, the authors review their recent study on the impacts of the TP and contribute this chapter as an extension of their chapter titled “Effects of the Tibetan Plateau” published by Yanai and Wu in 2006 in the book The Asian Monsoon. The influence of a large-scale orography on climate depends not only on the mechanical and thermal forcing it exerts on the atmosphere, but also on the background atmospheric circulation. In winter the TP possesses two leading heating modes resulting from the relevant dominant atmospheric circulations, in particular the North Atlantic Oscillation and the North Pacific Oscillation. The prevailing effect of the mechanical forcing of the TP in wintertime generates a dipole type of circulation, in which the anticyclonic gyre in the middle and high latitudes contributes to the warm inland area to the west, and the cold seashore area to the east, of northeast Asia, whereas the cyclonic gyre in low latitudes contributes to the formation of a prolonged dry season over central and southern Asia and moist climate over southeastern Asia. Such a dipole circulation also generates a unique persistent rainfall in early spring (PRES) over southern China. In 1980s, Yanai and his colleagues analyzed the in situ observation and found that the constant potential temperature boundary layer over the TP can reach about 300 hPa before the summer monsoon onset. This study supports these findings, and demonstrates that such a boundary layer structure is a consequence of the atmospheric thermal adaptation to the surface sensible heating, which vanishes quickly with increasing height. The overshooting of rising air, which is induced by surface sensible heating, then can form a layer of constant potential temperature with a thickness of several kilometers. The thermal forcing of the TP on the lower tropospheric circulation looks like a sensible heat–driven air pump (SHAP). It is the surface sensible heating on the sloping sides of the plateau that the SHAP can effectively influence the Asian monsoon circulation. In spring the SHAP contributes to the seasonal abrupt change of the Asian circulation and anchors the earliest Asian summer monsoon onset over the eastern Bay of Bengal. In summer, this pumping, together with the thermal forcing over the Iranian Plateau, produces bimodality in the South Asian high activity in the upper troposphere, which is closely related to the climate anomaly patterns over South and East Asia. Because the isentropic surfaces in the middle and lower troposphere intersect with the TP, in summertime the plateau becomes a strong negative vorticity source of the atmosphere and affects the surrounding climate and even the Northern Hemispheric circulation via Rossby wave energy dispersion. Future prospects in related TP studies are also addressed.

Beschreibung: In this chapter, a model parameterization for organized tropical convection and convectively coupled tropical waves is presented. The model is based on the main three cloud types, congestus, deep, and stratiform, that are observed to play an important role in the dynamics and morphology of tropical convective systems. The model is based on the self-similarity across scales of tropical convective systems and uses physically sound theory about the mutual interactions between the three cloud types and the environment. Both linear analysis and numerical simulations of convectively coupled waves and the Madden–Julian oscillation are discussed.

Beschreibung: The authors examined the maintenance mechanisms of perturbation kinetic energy (PKE) in the tropical regions for multiple time scales by computing and analyzing its budget equation. The emphasis has been placed on the mean features of synoptic and subseasonal variabilities using a 33-yr dataset. From analysis of the contributions from u-wind and υ-wind components, the PKE maximum in the Indian Ocean is attributed less to synoptic variability and more to intraseasonal variability in which the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) dominates; however, there is strong evidence of seasonal variability affiliated with the Asian monsoon systems. The ones in the eastern Pacific and Atlantic Oceans are closely related to both intraseasonal and synoptic variability that result from the strong MJO and the relatively large amplitude of equatorial waves. The maintenance of the PKE budget mainly depends on the structure of time mean horizontal flows, the location of convection, and the transport of PKE from the extratropics. In the regions with strong convective activities, such as the eastern Indian Ocean to the western Pacific, the production of PKE occurs between 700 and 200 hPa at the expense of perturbation available potential energy (PAPE), which is generated by convective heating. This gain in PKE is largely offset by divergence of the geopotential component of vertical energy flux; that is, it is redistributed to the upper- and lower-atmospheric layers by the pressure field. Strong PKE generation through the horizontal convergence of the extratropical energy flux takes place in the upper troposphere over the eastern Pacific and Atlantic Ocean, and is largely balanced by a PKE loss due to barotropic conversion, which is determined solely by the sign of longitudinal stretching deformation. However, over the Indian Ocean, there is a net PKE loss due to divergence of energy flux, which is compensated by PKE gain through the shear generation.

Beschreibung: One of the most important contributions of Michio Yanai to tropical meteorology is the introduction of the concepts of apparent heat source Q1 and apparent moisture sink Q2 in the large-scale heat and moisture budgets of the atmosphere. Through the inclusion of unresolved eddy effects, the vertical profiles of apparent sources (and sinks) are generally quite different from those of true sources taking place locally. In low-resolution models, such as the conventional general circulation models (GCMs), cumulus parameterization is supposed to determine the apparent sources for each grid cell from the explicitly predicted grid-scale processes. Because of the recent advancement of computer technology, however, increasingly higher horizontal resolutions are being used even for studying the global climate, and, therefore, the concept of apparent sources must be expanded rather drastically. Specifically, the simulated apparent sources should approach and eventually converge to the true sources as the horizontal resolution is refined. For this transition to take place, the conventional cumulus parameterization must be either generalized so that it is applicable to any horizontal resolutions or replaced with the mean effects of cloud-scale processes explicitly simulated by a cloud-resolving model (CRM). These two approaches are called ROUTE I and ROUTE II for unifying low- and high-resolution models, respectively. This chapter discusses the conceptual and technical problems in exploring these routes and reviews the authors’ recent work on these subjects.

Beschreibung: This chapter proposes a working assumption as a way of conceptual simplification of the origin of Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO)-associated convection, or super cloud cluster (SCC). To develop the simplification, the importance of the synoptic-scale cold reservoir underlying the convection and its interaction with the accompanying zonal–vertical circulation is highlighted. The position of the convection with respect to that of climatological warm pool is postulated to determine the effectiveness of this framework. The authors introduce a prototype hypothesis to illustrate the usefulness of the above assumption based on a numerical simulation experiment with a global nonhydrostatic model for the boreal summer season. Premises for the hypothesis include 1) that the cloud cluster (CC) is a basic building block of tropical convection accompanying the precipitation-generated cold reservoir in its subcloud layer and 2) that a warm-pool-induced quasi-persistent zonal circulation is key for the upscale organization of CCs. The theory of squall-line structure by Rotunno, Klemp, and Weisman (hereafter RKW) is employed for the interpretation. No account is taken regarding the influences of equatorial waves as a first-order approximation. Given the premises, an SCC of O(1000) km scale is interpretable as a gigantic analog of a multicellular squall line embedded in the quasi-stationary westerly shear branch of the zonal circulation east of the warm water pool. A CC corresponds to the “cell,” and its successive formation to the east and westward movement represents an upshear-tilting core of intense updraft. The upshear-tilted SCC is favorably maintained with the precipitating area being separated from the gust front boundary between the cold reservoir and a low-level easterly, which is supported in the realm of the RKW theory where two horizontal vortices associated with the cold reservoir and vertical shear are opposite in sign but cold reservoir’s vorticity can be inferred to be larger, leading to upshear-tilted and multicellular behavior. As a counterexample, CCs to the west of the warm pool (Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea) are embedded in the easterly shear and organized into a less coherent cloud cluster complex (CCC) given the situation of RKW where two horizontal vortices associated with the cold reservoir and vertical shear are still opposite in sign, but the smaller vertical shear west of the warm pool causes even more suboptimal vorticity imbalance in the western flank of cold reservoir, leading to larger tilt with height and intermittent, less viable storm situations. A cold pool or cold reservoir, having been prevalent in mesoscale convection research, is argued to be important for the MJO as pointed out by the emerging evidence in the international field campaign for the MJO called Cooperative Indian Ocean Experiment on Intraseasonal Variability (CINDY)/DYNAMO. The simplified and idealistic hypothesis proposed here does not cover all aspects of MJO and its validation awaits further modeling and observational studies, but it can offer a framework for characterizing a fundamental aspect of the origin of MJO-associated convection.

Beschreibung: This chapter distinguishes the mechanism of tropical convective disturbances, such as a hurricane, from that of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). The hurricane is maintained by organized convection around the azimuth. In a hurricane the organization of convection, the generation of eddy available potential energy, and the transformation of eddy available potential energy into eddy kinetic energy all occur on the scale of the hurricane and these are called “in-scale processes,” which invoke quadratic nonlinearity. The MJO is not a hurricane type of disturbance; organized convection simply does not drive an MJO in the same manner. The maintenance of the MJO is more akin to a multibody problem where the convection is indeed organized on scales of tropical synoptic disturbances that carry a similar organization of convection and carry similar roles for the generation of eddy available potential energy and its conversion to the eddy kinetic energy for their maintenance. The maintenance of the MJO is a scale interaction problem that comes next, where pairs of synoptic-scale disturbances are shown to interact with a member of the MJO time scale, thus contributing to its maintenance. This chapter illustrates the organization of convection, synoptic-scale energetics, and nonlinear scale interactions to show the above aspects for the mechanism of the MJO.

Beschreibung: Cloud processes play a central role in the dynamics of the tropical atmosphere, but for many years the shortcomings of cloud parameterizations have limited our ability to simulate and understand important tropical weather systems such as the Madden–Julian oscillation. Since about 2001, “superparameterization” has emerged as a new path forward, complementing but not replacing studies based on conventional parameterizations. This chapter provides an overview of work with superparameterization, including a discussion of the method itself and a summary of key results.

Beschreibung: Which regions contribute most to national growth? Do large cities ‘need’ more expenditure per capita? The relation between these two questions is the subject of a current German discussion, but it is of importance for other countries as well. What precisely is the issue? The substantial German fiscal equalization systems between states (Länder) and between communities assign estimates of higher expenditure need per capita to larger cities. This paper argues that this is justified, because, following the arguments of new regional economics, the modern agglomerations are of crucial importance for national growth. To maintain this role they have to be able to keep or receive enough public finance. To assess this, total public flows out of and into regions have to be taken into account. The relevant analysis shows that their contribution to upperlevel (federal and Länder) finances is far above average, but that they receive relatively little from federal and Länder spending; consequently they experience large net fiscal outflows. The use of the abovementioned progressive scale of expenditure need in the equalization systems reduces this fiscal siphoning-off, at least to some extent.

Beschreibung: Zusammenfassung Der Beitrag untersucht die Pendeldistanzen und die Dauer der Pendelwege im Kontext von Randwanderung und Geschlechterverhältnissen im Umland der Stadt Hagen (Westfalen). Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass auch innerregionale Wanderungen häufig mit beruflichen Motiven verbunden sind. Die geschlechtsspezifischen Veränderungen im Pendeln nach dem Umzug sprechen für die Orientierung des Wohnstandorts am Arbeitsplatz des Mannes, wobei Frauen tendenziell die „Trailing-wife“-Position einnehmen. Darüber hinaus gehen die Wanderungen mit dem Versuch einer Begrenzung oder Verkürzung der Pendelwege auf der Haushaltsebene einher. Dies drückt sich nicht nur in der Pendeldauer aus, sondern auch in der räumlichen Konfiguration von Wohnen und Arbeiten bei erwerbstätigen Paaren, die hier über die relative Lage von Wohn- und Arbeitsorten zueinander abgebildet wurde. In einem Ring von 20–30 km um Hagen sind die Wohnstandortentscheidungen allerdings im Vergleich zum näheren Umland (〈 20 km von Hagen) mit deutlich längeren Pendeldistanzen nach dem Umzug verbunden, was den klassischen Befunden der Suburbanisierungsforschung entspricht. Insgesamt sprechen die Ergebnisse für sehr komplexe Beziehungen zwischen Geschlecht, sozialem Status, Wohnstandortwahl und Pendelverhalten. Dies wird auch vor dem Hintergrund der polyzentrischen Struktur der Region interpretiert. Schlussfolgerungen für die weitere Forschung ergeben sich aus einigen innovativen methodischen Ansätzen der Studie. Die planerische Bedeutung der Ergebnisse wird ebenfalls kurz diskutiert.

Beschreibung: Zusammenfassung Der Umgang mit den Folgen des Klimawandels stellt Biosphärenreservate als Modellregionen für nachhaltige Entwicklung vor neue Herausforderungen. Obwohl Einflüsse auf Ökosysteme oder Landschaften nur begrenzt steuerbar und schwer absehbar sind, besteht der Auftrag, Klimawandelfolgen strategisch aufzugreifen. Zudem sind zahlreiche Akteure mit unterschiedlichen Perspektiven in Entscheidungen einzubeziehen, die vor dem Hintergrund unsicherer Zukunftsprognosen getroffen werden müssen. Der Beitrag zeigt am Beispiel des UNESCO-Biosphärenreservates Flusslandschaft Elbe-Brandenburg, welche konkreten Handlungsfelder sich abzeichnen und welche Arbeitsphasen ein planvoller Umgang mit dem Klimawandel haben kann. Es werden mögliche Maßnahmen für die Themen Landschaftswasserhaushalt, Vegetation, Fauna und Landnutzung aufgezeigt. An der Elbe kommt dem Flussgebietsmanagement eine besondere Bedeutung zu. Die Diskussion möglicher strategischer Handlungsfelder erläutert, welche Rollen die Verwaltung von Biosphärenreservaten in einem Prozess der Anpassung an den Klimawandel einnehmen kann. Die Möglichkeiten und der Umfang, in dem sich Biosphärenreservate zu Modellregionen für die Anpassung an den Klimawandel entwickeln, werden sich in der Praxis nach den vorhandenen Kapazitäten und der Expertise richten.

Beschreibung: Decentralized energy systems are increasingly seen as a key factor for a transition towards a low-carbon, renewable energy based society. Within the transition process, regional demand and supply of renewable energy carriers have to be aligned, while considering the environmental conditions of the region. This paper focuses on the energy demand from buildings, which makes up 35% of the total energy demand. It presents an approach for aligning the regional supply potential of renewable energy carriers with the dynamics of regional energy demand from buildings. The approach consists of two components. First, a dynamic model simulates regional energy demand from buildings taking into consideration envelope renovation, legislative standards, and adoption of heating technologies. Second, the regional supply is estimated based on the technical maximum possible, taking into consideration competing uses and spatial limitations. We show a first application in the case of the energy region Weiz-Gleisdorf, Austria, which aims to achieve CO2 neutrality and energy self-sufficiency by the year 2050. Our results show that in the year 2050 (i) energy demand from buildings will decrease by 40–55%, depending on envelope renovation rates and legislative standards; (ii) demand for the different renewable energy carriers will be determined by the choice of heating technology; (iii) the demand for wood could be met from regional forest resources, as long as there are no additional demands for other purposes; (iv) the demand for biomass for district heating would require 5–10% of the agricultural area to be used for the production of energy plants rather than food; and (v) in contrast to other forms of energy, the demand for electricity will remain constant or increase slightly over time. This demand could only be regionally met if significant areas of façades or gardens are used for photovoltaic electricity production in addition to roofs. Overall we identified several issues related to spatial planning and a need for further research regarding the transition towards decentralized energy systems. First, if biomass for central district heating systems is to come from regional production, areas should be allocated for cultivating energy crops used specifically to produce fuel. Second, if wood is used for district heating purposes, the extent to which the import of wood from neighboring regions would be a useful ecological solution must be evaluated; this would involve extending regional energy planning beyond the typical jurisdictional boundaries while considering ecological issues.

Beschreibung: Zusammenfassung Stationärer Einzelhandel und (Innen-) Stadt sind räumlich betrachtet eng miteinander verflochten. Durch die zunehmende Relevanz des Internets und insbesondere des damit verbundenen Online-Handels im Alltag der Menschen verliert der physische Raum als konstantes Bindeglied aktuell jedoch immer mehr an Bedeutung. Vor dem Hintergrund der allgemeinen Zeitknappheit und den Vorzügen, welche der Online-Handel bietet, werden immer mehr Produkte online und nicht im stationären Einzelhandel erworben. Dies schlägt sich auch in der Umsatzentwicklung nieder. Während der stationäre Einzelhandel in den letzten Jahren nahezu stagnierende Umsätze zu verzeichnen hat, sind die Wachstumsraten im Online-Handel immens. Bis 2025 soll der Online-Anteil am gesamten Einzelhandelsumsatz auf rund 15 % anwachsen. Dies bleibt nicht ohne Folgen für innerstädtische Einzelhandelslagen. Es wird – abhängig von ihrer Lokalisierung in räumlich-strukturell begünstigten oder benachteiligten Städten – sowohl Gewinner als auch Verlierer geben. Um die Folgen für die davon betroffenen Räume möglichst gering zu halten, sollten die Möglichkeiten, welche die zunehmende Digitalisierung bietet, als Chance für die Attraktivitätssteigerung der innerstädtischen Einzelhandelslagen genutzt werden.

Beschreibung: Zusammenfassung Zur Analyse des Mobilitätsverhaltens von Personen gibt es eine Vielzahl quantitativer und qualitativer Methoden. GPS-Tracking hat sich in den letzten Jahren zu einem festen Bestandteil bei der Erforschung des (touristischen) Mobilitätsverhaltens entwickelt. Basierend auf den – beispielsweise durch GPS-Datenlogger – erfassten Strecken lässt sich das raum-zeitliche Verhalten von Personen analysieren. Weitergehende Fragestellungen, z. B. zu deren Handlungen im Sinne von Aktivitäten am „Point of Interest“ (PoI), zur Motivation (beispielsweise für das Verweilen an einem bestimmten PoI), zu personenbezogenen Daten oder zur Zufriedenheit können durch eine Kombination mit anderen Erhebungstechniken erfasst werden. Eine eigens an der Hochschule Harz entwickelte Android-Applikation für Tablet-Computer ermöglicht die Verknüpfung sich ergänzender empirischer Techniken: GPS-Tracking und Face-to-Face-Befragung. Die Besonderheit liegt hierbei in der entwickelten Software, dem GimToP-Toolkit (GTK). Mit dessen Hilfe ist es möglich, direkt im Anschluss an die zurückgelegte Strecke die Tracks inklusive Pausen in einer interaktiven Karte darzustellen. Somit können die Probanden direkt nach Zurücklegen ihrer Strecke zu den einzelnen Wegepunkten, an denen sie länger verweilten, befragt werden. Dies stellt einen neuen, aussichtsreichen Ansatz für die Erforschung des raum-zeitlichen Verhaltens von Personen (z. B. Wanderern, Städtetouristen, Besuchern von Freizeiteinrichtungen und Sehenswürdigkeiten) dar. Die wichtigsten Ziele, Elemente und Möglichkeiten der neuen Software werden im vorliegenden Beitrag ebenso dargestellt wie Ergebnisse einer Beispieluntersuchung mittels des GTK von Wanderern am Brocken.

Beschreibung: Zusammenfassung Berufsbedingtes Pendeln ist ein wachsendes Phänomen. Eine immer größere Zahl an Beschäftigten legt dabei immer weitere Wege zwischen Wohn- und Arbeitsort zurück. Die Untersuchung beschäftigt sich mit dem Zusammenhang zwischen Pendeln und der Integration in den Arbeitsmarkt. Auch die Umzugsbereitschaft der Beschäftigten wird vor dem Hintergrund personenbezogener Merkmale untersucht. Dazu werden die Daten von rund 730.000 sozialversicherungspflichtig Beschäftigten, die am 30.06.2000 einen Arbeits- oder Wohnort in Hamburg hatten, über einen Zeitraum von 13 Kalenderjahren betrachtet. Die Ergebnisse sind differenziert: Einpendler sind hinsichtlich der Arbeitsmarktintegration recht erfolgreich, aber Pendler nicht generell erfolgreicher als Nichtpendler, wie am Beispiel der Auspendler deutlich wird. Die Arbeitsmarktintegration hat einen Bezug zu räumlicher Mobilität und deren zeitlicher Dynamik, der Zusammenhang ist aber nicht in jedem Fall eindeutig. Im Hinblick auf die Umzugsbereitschaft der sozialversicherungspflichtig Beschäftigten konnten die Ergebnisse der Mobilitätsforschung im Wesentlichen bestätigt werden.

Beschreibung: Zusammenfassung Das vorgestellte Modellvorhaben der Raumordnung „Vorsorgendes Risikomanagement in der Regionalplanung“ befasste sich mit der exemplarischen Entwicklung, Anwendung und Dokumentation eines integrierten Ansatzes zur Risikovorsorge im Rahmen der Regionalplanung am Beispiel der Planungsregion Köln. Dabei waren die Belange kritischer Infrastrukturen besonders zu würdigen. Die Bearbeitung des Projekts erfolgte im Sinne der Modellprojektforschung des Bundes in enger Kooperation mit den Dezernaten Regionalentwicklung, Wasserwirtschaft und Immissionsschutz der Bezirksregierung Köln. Das Projekt folgte konzeptionell einem integrierten Risiko-Governance Ansatz. Regionalplanerisch relevant sind dabei Risiken aus solchen Gefährdungen, die im Sinne des § 1 Abs. 1 bzw. § 8 Abs. 6 ROG raumbedeutsam sind: Sie erfordern somit eine überörtliche, überfachliche Betrachtung, weil ihre Auswirkungen bzw. Vermeidungs- und/oder Bewältigungsstrategien von überörtlicher Bedeutung sind. Dieser Definition folgend wurden für die Betrachtung in der Region Köln die vier Gefahrenkomplexe Flusshochwasser, Erdbeben, technische Störfälle und Hitze ausgewählt. Für diese vier Gefahrenkomplexe wurden Gefährdungs- und Empfindlichkeitsstufen in Anlehnung an eine vom Bundesamt für Bevölkerungsschutz und Katastrophenhilfe entwickelte Methodik bestimmt und zu einem Risikoindex verschnitten. Die Einteilung in Gefährdungsstufen wurde in Abstimmung mit den fachlich zuständigen Experten und Expertinnen der Bezirksregierung vorgenommen. Dem gleichen Ansatz folgte die Bestimmung der Empfindlichkeit der einzelnen im Regionalplan festlegbaren Raumnutzungen und Raumfunktionen gegenüber jedem Gefahrenkomplex. Auf dieser methodischen Grundlage wurde schließlich eine GIS-basierte Risikoanalyse durchgeführt. Die wichtigsten Ergebnisse daraus sind Gefahren-, Empfindlichkeits- sowie Risikokarten für Flusshochwasser, Erdbeben und technische Störfälle – sowohl für die gesamte Region und (mit einer feineren Auflösung) für ausgewählte Hot Spots. Darauf aufbauend wurden Vorschläge für mögliche Plansätze erarbeitet, die sich als Abwägungsgrundlage verstehen. Diese Grundlagen werden von der Bezirksregierung für die anstehende Fortschreibung des Regionalplans genutzt. Neben den methodischen Bausteinen zur Erarbeitung eines Risikoprofils für Regionen gehört zu den Projektergebnissen zudem ein „Fahrplan“ für ein integriertes Risikomanagement in der Regionalplanung, das die Bezirksregierung Köln bei der Fortschreibung des Regionalplans nutzen wird. Besondere Bedeutung werden diese Erkenntnisse auch für die Umweltprüfung haben, da die Behandlung von Klimawandel und die Anpassung an diesen sowie der Umgang mit Katastrophenrisiken durch die Änderungsrichtlinie 2014/52/EU zur gesetzlichen Pflichtaufgabe werden.