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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2016-11-04
    Description: Many detection and attribution and pattern scaling studies assume that the global climate response to multiple forcings is additive: that the response over the historical period is statistically indistinguishable from the sum of the responses to individual forcings. Here, we use the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model (CCSM) simulations from the CMIP5 archive to test this assumption for multi-year trends in global-average, annual-average temperature and precipitation at multiple timescales. We find that responses in models forced by pre-computed aerosol and ozone concentrations are generally additive across forcings; however, we demonstrate that there are significant nonlinearities in precipitation responses to dierent forcings in a configuration of the GISS model that interactively computes these concentrations from precursor emissions. We attribute these to dierences in ozone forcing arising from interactions between forcing agents. Our results suggest that attribution to specific forcings may be complicated in a model with fully interactive chemistry and may provide motivation for other modeling groups to conduct further single-forcing experiments.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN26978 , Environmental Research Letters (e-ISSN 1748-9326); Volume 10; No. 10; 104010
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2019-07-06
    Description: This article reports on the accuracy in aerosol- and cloud-free conditions of the radiation parameterizations used in climate models. Accuracy is assessed relative to observationally validated reference models for fluxes under present-day conditions and forcing (flux changes) from quadrupled concentrations of carbon dioxide. Agreement among reference models is typically within 1 W/m2, while parameterized calculations are roughly half as accurate in the longwave and even less accurate, and more variable, in the shortwave. Absorption of shortwave radiation is underestimated by most parameterizations in the present day and has relatively large errors in forcing. Error in present-day conditions is essentially unrelated to error in forcing calculations. Recent revisions to parameterizations have reduced error in most cases. A dependence on atmospheric conditions, including integrated water vapor, means that global estimates of parameterization error relevant for the radiative forcing of climate change will require much more ambitious calculations.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN23029 , Geophysical Research Letters (ISSN 0094-8276) (e-ISSN 1944-8007); 42; 13; 5485-5492
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2019-06-08
    Description: The spatial distribution of relative humidity with respect to ice (RHI) in the boreal wintertime tropical tropopause layer (TTL, 1418 km) over the Pacific is examined with the measurements provided by the NASA Airborne Tropical TRopopause EXperiment. We also compare the measured RHI distributions with results from a transport and microphysical model driven by meteorological analysis fields. Notable features in the distribution of RHI versus temperature and longitude include (1) the common occurrence of RHI values near ice saturation over the western Pacific in the lower to middle TTL; (2) low RHI values in the lower TTL over the central and eastern Pacific; (3) common occurrence of RHI values following a constant mixing ratio in the middle to upper TTL (temperatures between 190 and 200 K); (4) RHI values typically near ice saturation in the coldest airmasses sampled; and (5) RHI values typically near 100% across the TTL temperature range in air parcels with ozone mixing ratios less than 50 ppbv. We suggest that the typically saturated air in the lower TTL over the western Pacific is likely driven by a combination of the frequent occurrence of deep convection and the predominance of rising motion in this region. The nearly constant water vapor mixing ratios in the middle to upper TTL likely result from the combination of slow ascent (resulting in long residence times) and wavedriven temperature variability. The numerical simulations generally reproduce the observed RHI distribution features, and sensitivity tests further emphasize the strong influence of convective input and vertical motions on TTL relative humidity.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: NF1676L-26528 , Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (ISSN 2169-897X) (e-ISSN 2169-8996); 122; 11; 6094-6107
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2019-06-13
    Description: Since Chaneys report, the range of global warming projections in response to a doubling of CO2from 1.5 C to 4.5 C or greaterremains largely unscathed by the onslaught of new scientific insights. Conventional thinking regards inter-model differences in climate feedbacks as the sole cause of the warming projection spread (WPS). Our findings shed new light on this issue indicating that climate feedbacks inherit diversity from the model control climate, besides the models intrinsic climate feedback diversity that is independent of the control climate state. Regulated by the control climate ice coverage, models with greater (lesser) ice coverage generally possess a colder (warmer) and drier (moister) climate, exhibit a stronger (weaker) ice-albedo feedback, and experience greater (weaker) warming. The water vapor feedback also inherits diversity from the control climate but in an opposite way: a colder (warmer) climate generally possesses a weaker (stronger) water vapor feedback, yielding a weaker (stronger) warming. These inherited traits influence the warming response in opposing manners, resulting in a weaker correlation between the WPS and control climate diversity. Our study indicates that a better understanding of the diversity amongst climate model mean states may help to narrow down the range of global warming projections.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: NF1676L-26987 , Scientific Reports (e-ISSN 2045-2322); 7; 4300
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2019-06-11
    Description: Detecting climate trends of atmospheric temperature, moisture, cloud, and surface temperature requires accurately calibrated satellite instruments such as the Climate Absolute Radiance and Reflectivity Observatory (CLARREO). Wielicki et al. have studied the CLARREO measurement requirements for achieving climate change accuracy goals in orbit. Our study further quantifies the spectrally dependent IR instrument calibration requirement for detecting trends of atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles. The temperature, water vapor, and surface skin temperature variability and the associated correlation time are derived using Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) and European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis data. The results are further validated using climate model simulation results. With the derived natural variability as the reference, the calibration requirement is established by carrying out a simulation study for CLARREO observations of various atmospheric states under all-sky. We derive a 0.04 K (k=2, or 95% confidence) radiometric calibration requirement baseline using a spectral fingerprinting method. We also demonstrate that the requirement is spectrally dependent and some spectral regions can be relaxed due to the hyperspectral nature of the CLARREO instrument. We further discuss relaxing the requirement to 0.06 K (k=2) based on the uncertainties associated with the temperature and water vapor natural variability and relatively small delay in time-to-detect for trends relative to the baseline case. The methodology used in this study can be extended to other parameters (such as clouds and CO2) and other instrument configurations.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: NF1676L-26580 , Journal of Climate (ISSN 0894-8755) (e-ISSN 1520-0442 ); 30; 11; 3979-3998
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2019-07-19
    Description: Natural cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning and the charge structure of the associated clouds behave differently over land and ocean. Existing literature has raised questions over the years on the behavior of thunderstorms and lightning over oceans, and there are still open scientific questions. We expand on the observational datasets by obtaining identical electric field observations over coastal land, near-shore, and deep ocean regions during both clear air and thunderstorm periods. Oceanic observations were obtained using two 3-meter NOAA buoys that were instrumented with Campbell Scientific electric field mills to measure the static electric fields. These data were compared to selected electric field records from the existing on-shore electric field mill suite of 31 sensors at Kennedy Space Center (KSC). CG lightning occurrence times, locations and peak current values for both on-shore and ocean were provided by the U.S. National Lightning Detection Network. The buoy instruments were first evaluated on-shore at the Florida coast, to calibrate field enhancements and to confirm proper behavior of the system in elevated-field environments. The buoys were then moored 20NM and 120NM off the coast of KSC in February (20NM) and August (120NM) 2014. Statistically larger CG peak currents were reported over the deep ocean for first strokes and for subsequent strokes with new contacts points. Storm-related static fields were significantly larger at both oceanic sites, likely due to decreased screening by nearby space charge. Time-evolution of the static field during storm development and propagation indicated weak or missing lower positive charge regions in most storms that initiated over the deep ocean, supporting one mechanism for the observed high peak currents in negative first strokes over the deep ocean. This project also demonstrated the practicality of off-shore electric field measurements for safety-related decision making at KSC.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: KSC-E-DAA-TN33718 , Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society; Jan 22, 2017 - Jan 26, 2017; Seattle, WA; United States
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2019-07-19
    Description: Five-year simulation experiments with a multi-scale modeling Framework (MMF) with a advanced intermediately prognostic higher-order turbulence closure (IPHOC) in its cloud resolving model (CRM) component, also known as SPCAM-IPHOC (super parameterized Community Atmospheric Model), are performed to understand the fast tropical (30S-30N) cloud response to an instantaneous doubling of CO2 concentration with SST held fixed at present-day values. SPCAM-IPHOC has substantially improved the low-level representation compared with SPCAM. It is expected that the cloud responses to greenhouse warming in SPCAM-IPHOC is more realistic. The change of rising motion, surface precipitation, cloud cover, and shortwave and longwave cloud radiative forcing in SPCAM-IPHOC from the greenhouse warming will be presented in the presentation.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: NF1676L-20509 , Center for Multiscale Modeling of Atmospheric Processes (CMMAP) Winter 2015 Team Meeting; Jan 13, 2015 - Jan 15, 2015; La Jolla, CA; United States
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2019-07-19
    Description: Most recent assessments of long-term changes in the vertical distribution of ozone (by e.g. WMO and SI2N) rely on data sets that integrate observations by multiple instruments. Several merged satellite ozone profile records have been developed over the past few years; each considers a particular set of instruments and adopts a particular merging strategy. Their intercomparison by Tummon et al. revealed that the current merging schemes are not sufficiently refined to correct for all major differences between the limb/occultation records. This shortcoming introduces uncertainties that need to be known to obtain a sound interpretation of the different satellite-based trend studies. In practice however, producing realistic uncertainty estimates is an intricate task which depends on a sufficiently detailed understanding of the characteristics of each contributing data record and on the subsequent interplay and propagation of these through the merging scheme. Our presentation discusses these challenges in the context of limb/occultation ozone profile records, but they are equally relevant for other instruments and atmospheric measurements. We start by showing how the NDACC and GAW-affiliated ground-based networks of ozonesonde and lidar instruments allowed us to characterize fourteen limb/occultation ozone profile records, together providing a global view over the last three decades. Our prime focus will be on techniques to estimate long-term drift since our results suggest this is the main driver of the major trend differences between the merged data sets. The single-instrument drift estimates are then used for a tentative estimate of the systematic uncertainty in the profile trends from merged data records. We conclude by reflecting on possible further steps needed to improve the merging algorithms and to obtain a better characterization of the uncertainties involved.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN30387 , AGU 2015 Fall Meeting; Dec 14, 2015 - Dec 18, 2015; San Francisco, CA; United States
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2019-07-19
    Description: Atmospheric sources of Carbon Tetrachloride (CTC) have been controversial since its detection in the early 1970. Initial proposals were that it is globally uniformly distributed and its lack of current emissions and inferred lifetime indicated that it was likely of natural origin. Historical analysis of CTC use and emissions showed that atmospheric CTC was long-lived and mainly of man-made origin although small natural sources and sinks (e. g. oceans) could not be ruled out. This deduction was hard because a majority of emissions had occurred in early part of the 20th century when CTC was commonly used as a fumigant, a solvent, and a raw material for the manufacture of many chemicals. In the 1940's adverse health effects of exposure to CTC became evident and its emissions were greatly curtailed and substituted with C2Cl4 which was thought to be much safer. There were smog chamber studies that showed that C2Cl4, a widely used solvent during the late 20th century, could produce CTC with up to a 7% yield. Subsequently it was discovered that this chemistry probably required Cl atoms and since Cl atoms were not abundant in the atmosphere actual yields based on OH oxidation were probably closer to 0.1%. CTC was subsequently banned by the Montreal Protocol to prevent stratospheric ozone depletion and its preferred substitute C2Cl4 was also banned by EPA for reasons of potential carcinogenicity and toxicity. CTC since has been measured in many airborne NASA campaigns in which plumes have been sampled from a variety of regions which may still be emitting CTC. I will briefly discuss this historical perspective of CTC and show some recent data that may shed light on its current sources or lack there off.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: ARC-E-DAA-TN25845 , Solving the Mystery of Carbon Tetrachloride; Oct 05, 2015 - Oct 06, 2015; Zurich; Switzerland
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2019-07-19
    Description: Dengue fever (DF) is caused by a virus transmitted between humans and Aedes genus mosquitoes through blood feeding. In recent decades incidence of the disease has drastically increased in the tropical Americas, culminating with the Pan American outbreak in 2010 which resulted in 1.7 million reported cases. In Puerto Rico dengue is endemic, however, there is significant interannual, intraannual, and spatial variability in case loads. Variability in climate and the environment, herd immunity and virus genetics, and demographic characteristics may all contribute to differing patterns of transmission both spatially and temporally. Knowledge of climate influences on dengue incidence could facilitate development of early warning systems allowing public health workers to implement appropriate transmission intervention strategies. In this study, we simulate dengue incidence in several municipalities in Puerto Rico using population and meteorological data derived from ground based stations and remote sensing instruments. This data was used to drive a process based model of vector population development and virus transmission. Model parameter values for container composition, vector characteristics, and incubation period were chosen by employing a Monte Carlo approach. Multiple simulations were performed for each municipality and the results were compared with reported dengue cases. The best performing simulations were retained and their parameter values and meteorological input were compared between years and municipalities. Parameter values varied by municipality and year illustrating the complexity and sensitivity of the disease system. Local characteristics including the natural and built environment impact transmission dynamics and produce varying responses to meteorological conditions.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: MSFC-E-DAA-TN19074 , Association of American Geographers Annual Meeting; Apr 21, 2015 - Apr 25, 2015; Chicago, IL; United States
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  • 11
    Publication Date: 2019-07-19
    Description: Past research on pyrocumulus electrification has demonstrated that a variety of lightning types can occur, including cloudtoground (CG) flashes, sometimes of dominant positive polarity, as well as small intracloud (IC) discharges in the upper levels of the pyrocloud. In Colorado during summer 2012, the first combined polarimetric radar, multiDoppler radar, and threedimensional lightning mapping array (LMA) observations of lightningproducing pyrocumulus were obtained. These observations suggested that the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) was not sensitive enough to detect the small IC flashes that appear to be the dominant mode of lightning in these clouds. However, after an upgrade to the network in late 2012, the NLDN began detecting some of this pyrocumulus lightning. Multiple pyrocumulus clouds documented by the University of Wisconsin for various fires in 2013 and 2014 (including over the Rim, West Fork Complex, Yarnell Hill, Hardluck, and several other incidents) are examined and reported on here. This study exploits the increasedsensitivity NLDN as well as the new nationwide U.S. network of polarimetric Nextgeneration Radars (NEXRADs). These observations document the common occurrence of a polarimetric "dirty ice" signature modest reflectivities (2040+ dBZ), nearzero differential reflectivity, and reduced correlation coefficient (less than 0.9) prior to the production of lightning. This signature is indicative of a mixture of ash and ice particles in the upper levels of the pyrocloud (less than 20 C), with the ice interpreted as being necessary for pyrocloud electrification. PseudoGeostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) data will be produced from the 2012 LMA observations, and the ability of GLM to detect small pyrocumulus ICs will be assessed. The utility of lightning and polarimetric radar for documenting rapid wildfire growth, as well as for documenting pyrocumulus impacts on the composition of the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS), will be discussed.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: M14-3969 , American Meteorological Society (AMS) Annual Meeting; Jan 04, 2015 - Jan 08, 2015; Phoenix, AZ; United States
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  • 12
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: No abstract available
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: MSFC-E-DAA-TN21161 , Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference; Mar 02, 2015 - Mar 05, 2015; Jacksonville, FL; United States
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  • 13
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: In previous studies published in the open literature, a strong relationship between the occurrence of hail and the microwave brightness temperatures (primarily at 37 and 85 GHz) was documented. These studies were performed with the Nimbus7 SMMR, the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and most recently, the Aqua AMSRE sensor. This lead to climatologies of hail frequency from TMI and AMSRE, however, limitations include geographical domain of the TMI sensor (35 S to 35 N) and the overpass time of the Aqua satellite (130 am/pm local time), both of which reduce an accurate mapping of hail events over the global domain and the full diurnal cycle. Nonetheless, these studies presented exciting, new applications for passive microwave sensors. Since 1998, NOAA and EUMETSAT have been operating the AMSUA/B and the MHS on several operational satellites: NOAA15 through NOAA19; MetOpA and B. With multiple satellites in operation since 2000, the AMSU/MHS sensors provide near global coverage every 4 hours, thus, offering a much larger time and temporal sampling than TRMM or AMSRE. With similar observation frequencies near 30 and 85 GHz and additionally three at the 183 GHz water vapor band, the potential to detect strong convection associated with severe storms on a more comprehensive time and space scale exists. In this study, we develop a prototype AMSUbased hail detection algorithm through the use of collocated satellite and surface hail reports over the continental U.S. for a 12year period (20002011). Compared with the surface observations, the algorithm detects approximately 40 percent of hail occurrences. The simple threshold algorithm is then used to generate a hail climatology that is based on all available AMSU observations during 200011 that is stratified in several ways, including total hail occurrence by month (March through September), total annual, and over the diurnal cycle. Independent comparisons are made compared to similar data sets derived from other satellite, ground radar and surface reports. The algorithm was also applied to global land measurements for a single year and showed close agreement with other satellite based hail climatologies. Such a product could serve as a prototype for use with a future geostationary based microwave sensor such as NASA's proposed PATH mission.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: M14-3936 , American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting; Jan 04, 2015 - Jan 08, 2015; Phoenix, AZ; United States|Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography; Jan 04, 2015 - Jan 08, 2015; Phoenix, AZ; United States
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  • 14
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: No abstract available
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: MSFC-E-DAA-TN19905 , Conference on Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data; Jan 04, 2015 - Jan 08, 2015; Phoenix, AZ; United States
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  • 15
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: No abstract available
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: MSFC-E-DAA-TN20017 , American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting; Jan 04, 2015 - Jan 08, 2015; Phoenix, AZ; United States
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  • 16
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: No abstract available
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: MSFC-E-DAA-TN19968 , Annual American Meteorological Society Conference; Jan 03, 2015 - Jan 08, 2015; Phoenix, AZ; United States
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  • 17
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: No abstract available
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: MSFC-E-DAA-TN19866 , Conference on Satellite Meterology and Oceanography; Jan 04, 2015 - Jan 08, 2015; Phoenix, AZ; United States
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  • 18
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: No abstract available
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: MSFC-E-DAA-TN19906 , Annual American Meteorological Society Conference; Jan 04, 2015 - Jan 08, 2015; Phoenix, AZ; United States
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  • 19
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: Cloud computing capabilities have rapidly expanded within the private sector, offering new opportunities for meteorological applications. Collaborations between NASA Marshall, NASA Ames, and contractor partners led to evaluations of private (NASA) and public (Amazon) resources for executing short-term NWP systems. Activities helped the Marshall team further understand cloud capabilities, and benchmark use of cloud resources for NWP and other applications
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: MSFC-E-DAA-TN19626 , AMS Annual Meeting; Jan 04, 2015 - Jan 08, 2015; Phoenix, AZ; United States
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  • 20
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: No abstract available
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: MSFC-E-DAA-TN19649 , Environmental Information Processing Technologies Conference: AWIPS II Systems Update, Part 2; Jan 04, 2015 - Jan 08, 2015; Phoenix, AZ; United States|Annual American Meteorological Society Conference; Jan 04, 2015 - Jan 08, 2015; Phoenix, AZ; United States
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  • 21
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: No abstract available
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: MSFC-E-DAA-TN19602 , American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting; Jan 04, 2015 - Jan 08, 2015; Phoenix, AZ; United States
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  • 22
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: Data from multiple sources is needed to investigate lightning characteristics over differing terrain (on-shore vs. off-shore) by comparing natural cloud-to-ground lightning behavior differences depending on the characteristics of attachment mediums. The KSC Lightning Research Database (KLRD) was created to reduce manual data entry time and aid research by combining information from various data sources into a single record for each unique lightning event of interest. The KLRD uses automatic data handling functions to import data from a lightning detection network and identify and record lighting events of interest. Additional automatic functions import data from the NASA Buoy 41009 (located approximately 20 miles off the coast) and the KSC Electric Field Mill network, then match these electric field mill values to the corresponding lightning events. The KLRD calculates distances between each lightning event and the various electric field mills, aids in identifying the location type for each stroke (i.e., on-shore vs. off-shore, etc.), provides statistics on the number of strokes per flash, and produces customizable reports for quick retrieval and logical display of data. Data from February 2014 to date covers 48 unique storm dates with 2295 flashes containing 5700 strokes, of which 2612 are off-shore and 1003 are on-shore. The number of strokes per flash ranges from 1 to 22. The ratio of single to subsequent stroke flashes is 1.29 for off-shore strokes and 2.19 for on-shore strokes.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: KSC-E-DAA-TN19523 , American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting; Jan 04, 2015 - Jan 08, 2015; Phoenix, AZ; United States
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  • 23
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: Fifteen years of visible, near-infrared, and broadband shortwave radiance measurements from Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES), Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR), and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments on board NASA's Terra satellite are analyzed in order to assess their long-term relative stability for climate purposes. A regression-based approach between CERES, MODIS, and MISR (An camera only) reflectances is used to calculate the bias between the different reflectances relative to a reference year. When compared to the CERES shortwave broadband reflectance, relative drift between the MISR narrowbands is within 1%/decade. Compared to the CERES shortwave reflectance, the MODIS narrowband reflectances show a relative drift of less than 1.33%/decade. When compared to MISR, the MODIS reflectances show a relative drift of between 0.36%/decade and 2.66%/decade. We show that the CERES Terra SW measurements are stable over the time period relative to CERES Aqua. Using this as evidence that CERES Terra may be absolutely stable, we suggest that the CERES, MISR, and MODIS instruments meet the radiometric stability goals for climate applications set out in Ohring et al. (2005).
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: NF1676L-21113 , Journal of Geophysical Research; 120; 22; 11608-11616
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  • 24
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: Recent changes in the climate system have led to growing concern, especially in communities which are highly vulnerable to resource shortages and weather extremes. There is an urgent need for better climate information to develop solutions and strategies for adapting to a changing climate. Climate models provide excellent tools for studying the current state of climate and making future projections. However, these models are subject to biases created by structural uncertainties. Performance metrics-or the systematic determination of model biases-succinctly quantify aspects of climate model behavior. Efforts to standardize climate model experiments and collect simulation data-such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)-provide the means to directly compare and assess model performance. Performance metrics have been used to show that some models reproduce present-day climate better than others. Simulation data from multiple models are often used to add value to projections by creating a consensus projection from the model ensemble, in which each model is given an equal weight. It has been shown that the ensemble mean generally outperforms any single model. It is possible to use unequal weights to produce ensemble means, in which models are weighted based on performance (called "intelligent" ensembles). Can performance metrics be used to improve climate projections? Previous work introduced a framework for comparing the utility of model performance metrics, showing that the best metrics are related to the variance of top-of-atmosphere outgoing longwave radiation. These metrics improve present-day climate simulations of Earth's energy budget using the "intelligent" ensemble method. The current project identifies several approaches for testing whether performance metrics can be applied to future simulations to create "intelligent" ensemble-mean climate projections. It is shown that certain performance metrics test key climate processes in the models, and that these metrics can be used to evaluate model quality in both current and future climate states. This information will be used to produce new consensus projections and provide communities with improved climate projections for urgent decision-making.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: NF1676L-21455 , CERES Science Team Meeting; May 05, 2015 - May 07, 2015; Hampton, VA; United States
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  • 25
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: Polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) play a crucial role in the springtime chemical depletion of ozone at high latitudes. PSC particles (primarily supercooled ternary solution, or STS droplets) provide sites for heterogeneous chemical reactions that transform stable chlorine and bromine reservoir species into highly reactive ozone-destructive forms. Furthermore, large nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) PSC particles can irreversibly redistribute odd nitrogen through gravitational sedimentation (a process commonly known as denitrification), which prolongs the ozone depletion process by slowing the reformation of the stable chlorine reservoirs. Spaceborne observations from the CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) lidar on the CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations) satellite are providing a rich new dataset for studying PSCs. CALIPSO is an excellent platform for studying polar processes with CALIOP acquiring, on average, over 300,000 backscatter profiles daily at latitudes between 55o and 82o in both hemispheres. PSCs are detected in the CALIOP backscatter profiles using a successive horizontal averaging scheme that enables detection of strongly scattering PSCs (e.g., ice) at the finest possible spatial resolution (5 km), while enhancing the detection of very tenuous PSCs (e.g., low number density NAT) at larger spatial scales (up to 135 km). CALIOP PSCs are separated into composition classes (STS; liquid/NAT mixtures; and ice) based on the ensemble 532-nm scattering ratio (the ratio of total-to-molecular backscatter) and 532-nm particulate depolarization ratio (which is sensitive to the presence of non-spherical, i.e. NAT and ice particles). In this paper, we will provide an overview of the CALIOP PSC detection and composition classification algorithm and then examine the vertical and spatial distribution of PSCs in the Arctic and Antarctic on vortex-wide scales for entire PSC seasons over the more than nine-year data record from 2006- 2015.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: NF1676L-21149 , Invited Seminar at Karlsruhe Institute of Technology; Apr 19, 2015 - Apr 21, 2015; Karlsruhe; Germany
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  • 26
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: The time scales that characterize the variations of vegetation phenology are generally much longer than those that characterize atmospheric processes. The explicit modeling of phenological processes in an atmospheric forecast system thus has the potential to provide skill to subseasonal or seasonal forecasts. We examine this possibility here using a forecast system fitted with a dynamic vegetation phenology model. We perform three experiments, each consisting of 128 independent warm-season monthly forecasts: 1) an experiment in which both soil moisture states and carbon states (e.g., those determining leaf area index) are initialized realistically, 2) an experiment in which the carbon states are prescribed to climatology throughout the forecasts, and 3) an experiment in which both the carbon and soil moisture states are prescribed to climatology throughout the forecasts. Evaluating the monthly forecasts of air temperature in each ensemble against observations, as well as quantifying the inherent predictability of temperature within each ensemble, shows that dynamic phenology can indeed contribute positively to subseasonal forecasts, though only to a small extent, with an impact dwarfed by that of soil moisture.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN31838 , Journal of Hydrometeorology (e-ISSN 1525-7541); 16; 1456-1465
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  • 27
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: Cirrus clouds play a key role in the radiative and hydrological balance of the upper troposphere. Their correct representation in atmospheric models requires an understanding of the microscopic processes leading to ice nucleation. A key parameter in the theoretical description of ice nucleation is the activation energy, which controls the flux of water molecules from the bulk of the liquid to the solid during the early stages of ice formation. In most studies it is estimated by direct association with the bulk properties of water, typically viscosity and self-diffusivity. As the environment in the ice-liquid interface may differ from that of the bulk, this approach may introduce bias in calculated nucleation rates. In this work a theoretical model is proposed to describe the transfer of water molecules across the ice-liquid interface. Within this framework the activation energy naturally emerges from the combination of the energy required to break hydrogen bonds in the liquid, i.e., the bulk diffusion process, and the work dissipated from the molecular rearrangement of water molecules within the ice-liquid interface. The new expression is introduced into a generalized form of classical nucleation theory. Even though no nucleation rate measurements are used to fit any of the parameters of the theory the predicted nucleation rate is in good agreement with experimental results, even at temperature as low as 190 K, where it tends to be underestimated by most models. It is shown that the activation energy has a strong dependency on temperature and a weak dependency on water activity. Such dependencies are masked by thermodynamic effects at temperatures typical of homogeneous freezing of cloud droplets; however, they may affect the formation of ice in haze aerosol particles. The new model provides an independent estimation of the activation energy and the homogeneous ice nucleation rate, and it may help to improve the interpretation of experimental results and the development of parameterizations for cloud formation.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN31836 , Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics; 15; 24; 13819-13831
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  • 28
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: No abstract available
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: NF1676L-23279 , 2015 Fall Meeting American Geophysical Union; Dec 14, 2015 - Dec 18, 2015; San Francisco, CA; United States
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  • 29
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: Cloud properties play a critical role in climate change. Monitoring cloud properties over long time periods is needed to detect changes and to validate and constrain models. The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project has developed several cloud datasets from Aqua and Terra MODIS data to better interpret broadband radiation measurements and improve understanding of the role of clouds in the radiation budget. The algorithms applied to MODIS data have been adapted to utilize various combinations of channels on the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on the long-term time series of NOAA and MetOp satellites to provide a new cloud climate data record. These datasets can be useful for a variety of studies. This paper presents results of the MODIS and AVHRR analyses covering the period from 1980-2014. Validation and comparisons with other datasets are also given.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: NF1676L-22513 , 2015 EUMETSAT Meteorological Satellite Conference; Sep 21, 2015 - Sep 25, 2015; Toulouse; France
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  • 30
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: New results for the development of the PCRTM model will be presented. The new results were used for IASI retrieval validation inter comparison and better results were obtained compare to other fast radiative transfer models.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: NF1676L-23157 , CLARREO SDT Meeting; Dec 01, 2015 - Dec 03, 2015; Hampton, VA; United States
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  • 31
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: Significant atmospheric CO2 variations on various spatiotemporal scales were observed during ASCENDS flight campaigns. For example, around 10-ppm CO2 changes were found within free troposphere in a region of about 200x300 sq km over Iowa during a summer 2014 flight. Even over extended forests, about 2-ppm CO2 column variability was measured within about 500-km distance. For winter times, especially over snow covered ground, relatively less horizontal CO2 variability was observed, likely owing to minimal interactions between the atmosphere and land surface. Inter-annual variations of CO2 drawdown over cornfields in the Mid-West were found to be larger than 5 ppm due to slight differences in the corn growing phase and meteorological conditions even in the same time period of a year. Furthermore, considerable differences in atmospheric CO2 profiles were found during winter and summer campaigns. In the winter CO2 was found to decrease from about 400 ppm in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) to about 392 ppm above 10 km, while in the summer CO2 increased from 386 ppm in the ABL to about 396 ppm in free troposphere. These and other CO2 observations are discussed in this presentation.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: NF1676L-23178 , AGU Fall Meeting 2015; Dec 14, 2015 - Dec 18, 2015; San Francisco, CA; United States
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  • 32
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: No abstract available
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: NF1676L-22190 , NOAA Climate Data Record Annual Meeting; Aug 04, 2015 - Aug 06, 2015; Asheville, NC; United States
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  • 33
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: No abstract available
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: NF1676L-22191 , NOAA Climate Data Record Annual Meeting; Aug 04, 2015 - Aug 06, 2015; Asheville, NC; United States
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  • 34
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: Atmospheric CO2 is a critical forcing for the Earth's climate, and knowledge of its distribution and variations influences predictions of the Earth's future climate. Accurate observations of atmospheric CO2 are also crucial to improving our understanding of CO2 sources, sinks and transports. To meet these science needs, NASA is developing technologies for the Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights, Days, and Seasons (ASCENDS) space mission, which is aimed at global CO2 observations. Meanwhile an airborne investigation of atmospheric CO2 distributions as part of the NASA Suborbital Atmospheric Carbon and Transport " America (ACT-America) mission will be conducted with lidar and in situ instrumentation over the central and eastern United States during all four seasons and under a wide range of meteorological conditions. In preparing for the ASCENDS mission, NASA Langley Research Center and Exelis Inc./Harris Corp. have jointly developed and demonstrated the capability of atmospheric CO2 column measurements with an intensity-modulated continuous-wave (IM-CW) lidar. Since 2005, a total of 14 flight campaigns have been conducted. A measurement precision of approx.0.3 ppmv for a 10-s average over desert and vegetated surfaces has been achieved, and the lidar CO2 measurements also agree well with in-situ observations. Significant atmospheric CO2 variations on various spatiotemporal scales have been observed during these campaigns. For example, around 10-ppm CO2 changes were found within free troposphere in a region of about 200A-300 sq km over Iowa during a summer 2014 flight. Results from recent flight campaigns are presented in this paper. The ability to achieve the science objectives of the ASCENDS mission with an IM-CW lidar is also discussed in this paper, along with the plans for the ACT-America aircraft investigation that begins in the winter of 2016.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: NF1676L-22417 , WMO/IAEA Meeting on Carbon Dioxide, Other Greenhouse Gases, and Related Measurement Techniques (GGMT-2015); Sep 13, 2015 - Sep 17, 2015; La Jolla, CA; United States
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  • 35
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: Low-level clouds cover nearly half of the Earth and play a critical role in regulating the energy and hydrological cycle. Despite the fact that a great effort has been put to advance the modeling and observational capability in recent years, low-level clouds remains one of the largest uncertainties in the projection of future climate change. Low-level cloud feedbacks dominate the uncertainty in the total cloud feedback in climate sensitivity and projection studies. These clouds are notoriously difficult to simulate in climate models due to its complicated interactions with aerosols, cloud microphysics, boundary-layer turbulence and cloud dynamics. The biases in both low cloud coverage/water content and cloud radiative effects (CREs) remain large. A simultaneous reduction in both cloud and CRE biases remains elusive. This presentation first reviews the effort of implementing the higher-order turbulence closure (HOC) approach to representing subgrid-scale turbulence and low-level cloud processes in climate models. There are two HOCs that have been implemented in climate models. They differ in how many three-order moments are used. The CLUBB are implemented in both CAM5 and GDFL models, which are compared with IPHOC that is implemented in CAM5 by our group. IPHOC uses three third-order moments while CLUBB only uses one third-order moment while both use a joint double-Gaussian distribution to represent the subgrid-scale variability. Despite that HOC is more physically consistent and produces more realistic low-cloud geographic distributions and transitions between cumulus and stratocumulus regimes, GCMs with traditional cloud parameterizations outperform in CREs because tuning of this type of models is more extensively performed than those with HOCs. We perform several tuning experiments with CAM5 implemented with IPHOC in an attempt to produce the nearly balanced global radiative budgets without deteriorating the low-cloud simulation. One of the issues in CAM5-IPHOC is that cloud water content is much higher than in CAM5, which is combined with higher low-cloud coverage to produce larger shortwave CREs in some low-cloud prevailing regions. Thus, the cloud-radiative feedbacks are exaggerated there. The turning exercise is focused on microphysical parameters, which are also commonly used for tuning in climate models. The results will be discussed in this presentation.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: NF1676L-21998 , Asia Oceana Geophysical Society Meeting; Aug 02, 2015 - Aug 07, 2015; Singapore; Singapore
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  • 36
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: No abstract available
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: NF1676L-21648 , Composition and Transport in the Tropical Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere Meeting; Jul 20, 2015 - Jul 23, 2015; Boulder, CO; United States
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  • 37
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: The response of clouds to global warming represents a major uncertainty in estimating climate sensitivity. These uncertainties have been tracked to shallow marine clouds in the tropics and subtropics. CALIOP observations have already been used extensively to evaluate model predictions of shallow cloud fraction and top height (Leahy et al. 2013; Nam et al 2012). Tools are needed to probe the lowest levels of the troposphere. The large footprint of satellite lidars gives large multiple scattering from clouds which presents new possibilities for cloud retrievals to constrain model predictions.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: NF1676L-21759 , CFMIP Meeting on Cloud Processes and Climate Feedbacks; Jun 08, 2015 - Jun 11, 2015; Monterey, CA; United States
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  • 38
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: Background: In the US, residential and commercial building infrastructure combined consumes about 40% of total energy usage and emits about 39% of total CO2 emission (DOE/EIA "Annual Energy Outlook 2013"). Building codes, as used by local and state enforcement entities are typically tied to the dominant climate within an enforcement jurisdiction classified according to various climate zones. These climate zones are based upon a 30-year average of local surface observations and are developed by DOE and ASHRAE. Establishing the current variability and potential changes to future building climate zones is very important for increasing the energy efficiency of buildings and reducing energy costs and emissions in the future. Objectives: This paper demonstrates the usefulness of using NASA's Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) atmospheric data assimilation to derive the DOE/ASHRAE building climate zone maps and then using MERRA to define the last 30 years of variability in climate zones for the Continental US. An atmospheric assimilation is a global atmospheric model optimized to satellite, atmospheric and surface in situ measurements. Using MERRA as a baseline, we then evaluate the latest Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) climate model Version 5 runs to assess potential variability in future climate zones under various assumptions. Methods: We derive DOE/ASHRAE building climate zones using surface and temperature data products from MERRA. We assess these zones using the uncertainties derived by comparison to surface measurements. Using statistical tests, we evaluate variability of the climate zones in time and assess areas in the continental US for statistically significant trends by region. CMIP 5 produced a data base of over two dozen detailed climate model runs under various greenhouse gas forcing assumptions. We evaluate the variation in building climate zones for 3 different decades using an ensemble and quartile statistics to provide an assessment of potential building climate zone changes relative to the uncertainties demonstrated using MERRA. Findings and Conclusions: These results show that there is a statistically significant increase in the area covered by warmer climate zones and a tendency for a reduction of area in colder climate zones in some limited regions. The CMIP analysis shows that models vary from relatively little building climate zone change for the least sensitive and conservation assumptions to a warming of at most 3 zones for certain areas, particularly the north central US by the end of the 21st century.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: NF1676L-21913 , 2015 International Conference for Energy and Climate for the Energy Industry (ICEM 2015); Jun 23, 2015 - Jun 26, 2015; Boulder, CO; United States
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  • 39
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: This study evaluates the capability of atmospheric CO2 column measurements under cloudy conditions using an airborne intensity-modulated continuous-wave integrated-path-differential-absorption lidar operating in the 1.57-m CO2 absorption band. The atmospheric CO2 column amounts from the aircraft to the tops of optically thick cumulus clouds and to the surface in the presence of optically thin clouds are retrieved from lidar data obtained during the summer 2011 and spring 2013 flight campaigns, respectively.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: NF1676L-21941 , International Laser Radar Conference; Jul 05, 2015 - Jul 10, 2015; New York, NY; United States
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  • 40
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: Atmospheric CO2 is a critical forcing for the Earth's climate and the knowledge on its distributions and variations influences predictions of the Earth's future climate. Large uncertainties in the predictions persist due to limited observations. This study uses the airborne Intensity-Modulated Continuous-Wave (IMCW) lidar developed at NASA Langley Research Center to measure regional atmospheric CO2 spatio-temporal variations. Further lidar development and demonstration will provide the capability of global atmospheric CO2 estimations from space, which will significantly advances our knowledge on atmospheric CO2 and reduce the uncertainties in the predictions of future climate. In this presentation, atmospheric CO2 column measurements from airborne flight campaigns and lidar system simulations for space missions will be discussed. A measurement precision of approx.0.3 ppmv for a 10-s average over desert and vegetated surfaces has been achieved. Data analysis also shows that airborne lidar CO2 column measurements over these surfaces agree well with in-situ measurements. Even when thin cirrus clouds present, consistent CO2 column measurements between clear and thin cirrus cloudy skies are obtained. Airborne flight campaigns have demonstrated that precise atmospheric column CO2 values can be measured from current IM-CW lidar systems, which will lead to use this airborne technique in monitoring CO2 sinks and sources in regional and continental scales as proposed by the NASA Atmospheric Carbon and Transport " America project. Furthermore, analyses of space CO2 measurements shows that applying the current IM-CW lidar technology and approach to space, the CO2 science goals of space missions will be achieved, and uncertainties in CO2 distributions and variations will be reduced.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: NF1676L-21542 , Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2015; May 24, 2015 - May 28, 2015; Chiba-City, Tokyo; Japan
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  • 41
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: Atmospheric CO2 is the key radiative forcing for the Earth's climate and may contribute a major part of the Earth's warming during the past 150 years. Advanced knowledge on the CO2 distributions and changes can lead considerable model improvements in predictions of the Earth's future climate. Large uncertainties in the predictions have been found for decades owing to limited CO2 observations. To obtain precise measurements of atmospheric CO2, certain challenges have to be overcome. For an example, global annual means of the CO2 are rather stable, but, have a very small increasing trend that is significant for multi-decadal long-term climate. At short time scales (a second to a few hours), regional and subcontinental gradients in the CO2 concentration are very small and only in an order of a few parts per million (ppm) compared to the mean atmospheric CO2 concentration of about 400 ppm, which requires atmospheric CO2 space monitoring systems with extremely high accuracy and precision (about 0.5 ppm or 0.125%) in spatiotemporal scales around 75 km and 10-s. It also requires a decadal-scale system stability. Furthermore, rapid changes in high latitude environments such as melting ice, snow and frozen soil, persistent thin cirrus clouds in Amazon and other tropical areas, and harsh weather conditions over Southern Ocean all increase difficulties in satellite atmospheric CO2 observations. Space lidar approaches using Integrated Path Differential Absorption (IPDA) technique are considered to be capable of obtaining precise CO2 measurements and, thus, have been proposed by various studies including the 2007 Decadal Survey (DS) of the U.S. National Research Council. This study considers to use the Intensity-Modulated Continuous-Wave (IM-CW) lidar to monitor global atmospheric CO2 distribution and variability from space. Development and demonstration of space lidar for atmospheric CO2 measurements have been made through joint adventure of NASA Langley Research Center and Exelis, Inc. As prototype space IPDA lidars, airborne laser absorption lidar systems operating in 1.57 CO2 absorption band have been developed and tested through lab, ground-based range, and flight campaigns. Very encouraging results have been obtained. The signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) for clear sky IPDA measurements of CO2 differential absorption optical depth (DAOD) for a 10-s integration over vegetated areas with about 10 km range was found to be as high as 1300, resulting in an error 0.077% or equivalent CO2 mixing ratio (XCO2) column precision of ~0.3 ppm. Precise range measurements using the IM-CW lidar approach were also achieved, and the uncertainties have been shown to be at sub meter level. Based on the airborne lidar development, space lidar and atmospheric CO2 observations are simulated. It shows that with the IM-CW approach, accurate atmospheric CO2 measurements can be achieved from space, and a space mission such as that proposed by the DS will meet science goals of atmospheric CO2 monitoring.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: NF1676L-21606 , International Symposium on Atmospheric Light Scattering and Remote Sensing; Jun 01, 2015 - Jun 05, 2015; Wuhan; China
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  • 42
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects on tropical clouds and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) cloud radiative effects (CREs) in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase5 (CMIP5) models are evaluated using satellite-based observations and International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project satellite simulator output. Climatologically, most CMIP5 models produce considerably less total cloud amount with higher cloud top and notably larger reflectivity than observations in tropical Indo-Pacific (60 degrees East - 200 degrees East; 10 degrees South - 10 degrees North). During ENSO, most CMIP5 models considerably underestimate TOA CRE and cloud changes over western tropical Pacific. Over central tropical Pacific, while the multi-model mean resembles observations in TOA CRE and cloud amount anomalies, it notably overestimates cloud top pressure (CTP) decreases; there are also substantial inter-model variations. The relative effects of changes in cloud properties, temperature and humidity on TOA CRE anomalies during ENSO in the CMIP5 models are assessed using cloud radiative kernels. The CMIP5 models agree with observations in that their TOA shortwave CRE anomalies are primarily contributed by total cloud amount changes, and their TOA longwave CRE anomalies are mostly contributed by changes in both total cloud amount and CTP. The model biases in TOA CRE anomalies particularly the strong underestimations over western tropical Pacific are, however, mainly explained by model biases in CTP and cloud optical thickness (tau) changes. Despite the distinct model cloud biases particularly in tau regime, the TOA CRE anomalies from cloud amount changes are comparable between the CMIP5 models and observations, because of the strong compensations between model underestimation of TOA CRE anomalies from thin clouds and overestimation from medium and thick clouds.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: Paper IUGG-1890 , NF1676L-21378 , General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG); Jun 22, 2015 - Jul 02, 2015; Prague; Czechoslovakia
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  • 43
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: Chemical breakdown of rocks, weathering, is an important but very slow part of the carbon cycle that ultimately leads to CO2 being locked up in carbonates on the ocean floor. Artificial acceleration of this carbon sink via distribution of pulverized silicate rocks across terrestrial landscapes may help offset anthropogenic CO2 emissions. We show that idealized enhanced weathering scenarios over less than a third of tropical land could cause significant drawdown of atmospheric CO2 and ameliorate ocean acidification by 2100. Global carbon cycle modelling driven by ensemble Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) projections of twenty-first-century climate change (RCP8.5, business-as-usual; RCP4.5, medium-level mitigation) indicates that enhanced weathering could lower atmospheric CO2 by 30-300 ppm by 2100, depending mainly on silicate rock application rate (1 kg or 5 kg m(exp -2) yr (exp -1)) and composition. At the higher application rate, end-of-century ocean acidification is reversed under RCP4.5 and reduced by about two-thirds under RCP8.5. Additionally, surface ocean aragonite saturation state, a key control on coral calcification rates, is maintained above 3.5 throughout the low latitudes, thereby helping maintain the viability of tropical coral reef ecosystems. However, we highlight major issues of cost, social acceptability, and potential unanticipated consequences that will limit utilization and emphasize the need for urgent efforts to phase down fossil fuel emissions.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN31789-1 , Nature Climate Change; 6; 402-408
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  • 44
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: No abstract available
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: NF1676L-20586 , AMS Annual Meeting; Jan 04, 2015 - Jan 08, 2015; Phoenix, AZ; United States
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  • 45
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) is a co-ordinated international climate modelling initiative to study and understand climate and environments of the Late Pliocene, and their potential relevance in the context of future climate change. PlioMIP operates under the umbrella of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP), which examines multiple intervals in Earth history, the consistency of model predictions in simulating these intervals and their ability to reproduce climate signals preserved in geological climate archives. This paper provides a thorough model intercomparison project description, and documents the experimental design in a detailed way. Specifically, this paper describes the experimental design and boundary conditions that will be utilized for the experiments in Phase 2 of PlioMIP.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN26494 , Climate of the Past Discussion; 11; 4003
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  • 46
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: Climatically important low-level clouds are commonly misrepresented in climate models. The FAst-physics System TEstbed and Research (FASTER) Project has constructed case studies from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Climate Research Facility's Southern Great Plain site during the RACORO aircraft campaign to facilitate research on model representation of boundary-layer clouds. This paper focuses on using the single-column Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (SCAM5) simulations of a multi-day continental shallow cumulus case to identify specific parameterization causes of low-cloud biases. Consistent model biases among the simulations driven by a set of alternative forcings suggest that uncertainty in the forcing plays only a relatively minor role. In-depth analysis reveals that the model's shallow cumulus convection scheme tends to significantly under-produce clouds during the times when shallow cumuli exist in the observations, while the deep convective and stratiform cloud schemes significantly over-produce low-level clouds throughout the day. The links between model biases and the underlying assumptions of the shallow cumulus scheme are further diagnosed with the aid of large-eddy simulations and aircraft measurements, and by suppressing the triggering of the deep convection scheme. It is found that the weak boundary layer turbulence simulated is directly responsible for the weak cumulus activity and the simulated boundary layer stratiform clouds. Increased vertical and temporal resolutions are shown to lead to stronger boundary layer turbulence and reduction of low-cloud biases.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN30576 , Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres; 120; 12; 6015-6033
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  • 47
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: Observation-based modeling case studies of continental boundary layer clouds have been developed to study cloudy boundary layers, aerosol influences upon them, and their representation in cloud- and global-scale models. Three 60 h case study periods span the temporal evolution of cumulus, stratiform, and drizzling boundary layer cloud systems, representing mixed and transitional states rather than idealized or canonical cases. Based on in situ measurements from the Routine AAF (Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Aerial Facility) CLOWD (Clouds with Low Optical Water Depth) Optical Radiative Observations (RACORO) field campaign and remote sensing observations, the cases are designed with a modular configuration to simplify use in large-eddy simulations (LES) and single-column models. Aircraft measurements of aerosol number size distribution are fit to lognormal functions for concise representation in models. Values of the aerosol hygroscopicity parameter, kappa, are derived from observations to be approximately 0.10, which are lower than the 0.3 typical over continents and suggestive of a large aerosol organic fraction. Ensemble large-scale forcing data sets are derived from the ARM variational analysis, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, and a multiscale data assimilation system. The forcings are assessed through comparison of measured bulk atmospheric and cloud properties to those computed in "trial" large-eddy simulations, where more efficient run times are enabled through modest reductions in grid resolution and domain size compared to the full-sized LES grid. Simulations capture many of the general features observed, but the state-of-the-art forcings were limited at representing details of cloud onset, and tight gradients and high-resolution transients of importance. Methods for improving the initial conditions and forcings are discussed. The cases developed are available to the general modeling community for studying continental boundary clouds.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN30575 , Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (ISSN 2169-8996); 120; 12; 5962-5992
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  • 48
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: Two recent activities offer an opportunity to test general circulation model (GCM) convection and its interaction with large-scale dynamics for observed Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) events. This study evaluates the sensitivity of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM to entrainment, rain evaporation, downdrafts, and cold pools. Single Column Model versions that restrict weakly entraining convection produce the most realistic dependence of convection depth on column water vapor (CWV) during the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement MJO Investigation Experiment at Gan Island. Differences among models are primarily at intermediate CWV where the transition from shallow to deeper convection occurs. GCM 20-day hindcasts during the Year of Tropical Convection that best capture the shallowdeep transition also produce strong MJOs, with significant predictability compared to Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission data. The dry anomaly east of the disturbance on hindcast day 1 is a good predictor of MJO onset and evolution. Initial CWV there is near the shallowdeep transition point, implicating premature onset of deep convection as a predictor of a poor MJO simulation. Convection weakly moistens the dry region in good MJO simulations in the first week; weakening of large-scale subsidence over this time may also affect MJO onset. Longwave radiation anomalies are weakest in the worst model version, consistent with previous analyses of cloud/moisture greenhouse enhancement as the primary MJO energy source. The authors results suggest that both cloud-/moisture-radiative interactions and convectionmoisture sensitivity are required to produce a successful MJO simulation.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN30599 , Journal of Climate; 28; 16; 6419-6442
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  • 49
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: A suite of climate data sets and multiple representations of atmospheric moisture demand are used to calculate many estimates of the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index, a proxy for near-surface soil moisture, across California from 1901 to 2014 at high spatial resolution. Based on the ensemble of calculations, California drought conditions were record breaking in 2014, but probably not record breaking in 2012-2014, contrary to prior findings. Regionally, the 2012-2014 drought was record breaking in the agriculturally important southern Central Valley and highly populated coastal areas. Contributions of individual climate variables to recent drought are also examined, including the temperature component associated with anthropogenic warming. Precipitation is the primary driver of drought variability but anthropogenic warming is estimated to have accounted for 8-27 percent of the observed drought anomaly in 2012-2014 and 5-18 percent in 2014. Although natural variability dominates, anthropogenic warming has substantially increased the overall likelihood of extreme California droughts.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN30567 , Geophysical Research Letters; 42; 16; 6819-6828
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  • 50
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: The Sahel experienced a severe drought during the 1970s and 1980s after wet periods in the 1950s and 1960s. Although rainfall partially recovered since the 1990s, the drought had devastating impacts on society. Most studies agree that this dry period resulted primarily from remote effects of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies amplified by local land surface-atmosphere interactions. This paper reviews advances made during the last decade to better understand the impact of global SST variability on West African rainfall at interannual to decadal time scales. At interannual time scales, a warming of the equatorial Atlantic and Pacific/Indian Oceans results in rainfall reduction over the Sahel, and positive SST anomalies over the Mediterranean Sea tend to be associated with increased rainfall. At decadal time scales, warming over the tropics leads to drought over the Sahel, whereas warming over the North Atlantic promotes increased rainfall. Prediction systems have evolved from seasonal to decadal forecasting. The agreement among future projections has improved from CMIP3 to CMIP5, with a general tendency for slightly wetter conditions over the central part of the Sahel, drier conditions over the western part, and a delay in the monsoon onset. The role of the Indian Ocean, the stationarity of teleconnections, the determination of the leader ocean basin in driving decadal variability, the anthropogenic role, the reduction of the model rainfall spread, and the improvement of some model components are among the most important remaining questions that continue to be the focus of current international projects.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN30577 , Journal of Climate (e-ISSN 1520-0442); 28; 10; 4034-4060
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  • 51
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: The variability of cirrus ice microphysical properties is investigated using observations obtained during the Small Particles in Cirrus (SPARTICUS) campaign. An existing approach that represents a size distribution (SD) as a single gamma function using an ellipsoid of equally realizable solutions in (N(sub 0), lambda, mu) phase space is modified to automatically identify multiple modes in SDs and characterize each mode by such an ellipsoid. The modified approach is applied to ice crystals with maximum dimension D greater than15 micrometers collected by the 2-D stereo and 2-D precipitation probes on the Stratton Park Engineering Company Learjet. The dependencies of N(sub 0), mu, and lambda from each mode, total number concentration, bulk extinction, ice water content (IWC), and mass median maximum dimension D(sub mm) as a function of temperature T and cirrus type are then analyzed. The changes in the observed codependencies between N(sub 0), mu, and lambda, bulk extinction, IWC, and D(sub mm) with environmental conditions indicate that particles were larger at higher T during SPARTICUS. At most two modes were observed in any SD during SPARTICUS, with the average boundary between them at 115 micrometers, similar to past studies not using probes with shatter mitigating tips and artifact removal algorithms. The bimodality of the SDs increased with T. This and the differences in N(sub 0), mu, and lambda between the modes suggest that particles with smaller D nucleated more recently than particles with larger D, which grew via vapor deposition and aggregation. Because smaller crystals, whose concentrations are uncertain, make marginal contributions to higher order moments, the use of higher moments for evaluating model fields is suggested.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN30558 , Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres; 120; 19; 10,351-10,377
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  • 52
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: Interannual variations of latent heat fluxes (LHF) and sensible heat fluxes (SHF) over the Mediterranean for the boreal winter season (DJF) show positive trends during 1958-2011. Using reanalysis and satellite-based products, the variability and trends in the heat fluxes are compared with variations in three atmospheric teleconnection patterns: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the pressure and position of the Azores High (AH), and the East Atlantic-West Russia teleconnection pattern (EAWR). Comparison of correlations between the heat fluxes and teleconnections, along with analysis of composites of surface temperature, humidity, and wind fields for different teleconnection states, demonstrates that the AH explains the heat flux changes more successfully than NAO and EAWR. Trends in pressure and longitude of the Azores High show a strengthening and an eastward shift. Variations of the Azores High occur along an axis defined by lower pressure and westward location at one extreme and higher pressure and eastward location at the other extreme. The shift of the AH from predominance of the low/west state to the high/east state induces trends in Mediterranean Sea surface winds, temperature, and moisture. These, combined with sea surface warming trends, produce trends in wintertime sensible and latent heat fluxes.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN30557 , Advances in Meteorology; 2015; 519593
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  • 53
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: The recently completed CINDY/DYNAMO field campaign observed two Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) events in the equatorial Indian Ocean from October to December 2011. Prior work has indicated that the moist static energy anomalies in these events grew and were sustained to a significant extent by radiative feedbacks. We present here a study of radiative fluxes and clouds in a set of cloud-resolving simulations of these MJO events. The simulations are driven by the large-scale forcing data set derived from the DYNAMO northern sounding array observations, and carried out in a doubly periodic domain using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Simulated cloud properties and radiative fluxes are compared to those derived from the S-PolKa radar and satellite observations. To accommodate the uncertainty in simulated cloud microphysics, a number of single-moment (1M) and double-moment (2M) microphysical schemes in the WRF model are tested. The 1M schemes tend to underestimate radiative flux anomalies in the active phases of the MJO events, while the 2M schemes perform better, but can overestimate radiative flux anomalies. All the tested microphysics schemes exhibit biases in the shapes of the histograms of radiative fluxes and radar reflectivity. Histograms of radiative fluxes and brightness temperature indicate that radiative biases are not evenly distributed; the most significant bias occurs in rainy areas with OLR less than 150 W/ cu sq in the 2M schemes. Analysis of simulated radar reflectivities indicates that this radiative flux uncertainty is closely related to the simulated stratiform cloud coverage. Single-moment schemes underestimate stratiform cloudiness by a factor of 2, whereas 2M schemes simulate much more stratiform cloud.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN30555 , Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems; 7; 3; 1472-1498
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  • 54
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: In this study, the combined effect of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the Lake Chad (LC) level variability is explored. Our results show that the lake level at the Bol monitoring station has a statistically significant correlation with precipitation (R2 = 0.6, at the 99.5% confidence level). The period between the late 1960s and early 1970s marked a turning point in the response of the regional rainfall to climatic drivers, thereby severely affecting the LC level. Our results also suggest that the negative impact of the cold phase of AMO on Sahel precipitation masks and supersedes the positive effect of La Nia in the early the 1970s. The drop in the size of LC level from 282.5 m in the early 1960s to about 278.1 m in 1983/1984 was the largest to occur within the period of study (1900-2010) and coincides with the combined cold phase of AMO and strong El Nio phase of ENSO. Further analyses show that the current warm phase of AMO and increasing La Nia episodes appear to be playing a major role in the increased precipitation in the Sahel region. The LC level is responding to this increase in precipitation by a gradual recovery, though it is still below the levels of the 1960s. This understanding of the AMO-ENSO-rainfall-LC level association will help in forecasting the impacts of similar combined episodes in the future. These findings also have implications for long-term water resources management in the LC region.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN30416 , Cogent Geoscience (e-ISSN 2331-2041); 1; 1; 1117829
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  • 55
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: High-resolution WRF model sensitivity experiments are carried out (with and without urban land cover) to study urban impacts on nocturnal propagating thunderstorms over the city of Minneapolis. It is found that the storm spatial characteristics, especially the position of the storm cell, are appreciably altered by the presence of urban land cover. The most robust urban instability during stormy conditions is the enhanced surface convergence due to increased frictional drag. No urban impact is visible on the rainfall intensity simulated by the model. The frictional convergence, aided by the nocturnal Urban Heat Island (UHI), appears to be responsible for attracting propagating storms towards the urban center. Advanced modeling experiments are needed to quantify the mechanical and thermal influence along with similar studies in other cities to further investigate the urban impact on the frequency and trajectory of nocturnal propagating storms.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN30207 , Urban Climate; 14; Part 4; 606–621
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  • 56
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: No abstract available
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: MSFC-E-DAA-TN27459 , NASA A.25 Severe Storm Planning Meeting; Oct 20, 2015; Greenbelt, MD; United States
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  • 57
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    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: Large sporadic volcanic eruptions inject large amounts of sulfur bearing gases into the stratosphere which then get photochemically converted to sulfuric acid aerosol droplets that exert a radiative cooling effect on the global climate system lasting for several years.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN28745 , PAGES Magazine; 23; 2; 50-51
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  • 58
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: About one-half of the global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and deforestation accumulates in the atmosphere, where it contributes to global warming. The rest is taken up by vegetation and the ocean. The precise contribution of the two sinks, and their location and year-to-year variability are, however, not well understood. We use two different approaches, batch Bayesian synthesis inversion and variational data assimilation, to deduce the global spatiotemporal distributions of CO2 fluxes during 2009-2010. One of our objectives is to assess different sources of uncertainties in inferred fluxes, including uncertainties in prior flux estimates and observations, and differences in inversion techniques. For prior constraints, we utilize fluxes and uncertainties from the CASA-GFED model of the terrestrial biosphere and biomass burning driven by satellite observations and interannually varying meteorology. We also use measurement-based ocean flux estimates and two sets of fixed fossil CO2 emissions. Here, our inversions incorporate column CO2 measurements from the GOSAT satellite (ACOS retrieval, filtered and bias-corrected) and in situ observations (individual flask and afternoon-average continuous observations) to estimate fluxes in 108 regions over 8-day intervals for the batch inversion and at 3 x 3.75 weekly for the variational system. Relationships between fluxes and atmospheric concentrations are derived consistently for the two inversion systems using the PCTM atmospheric transport model driven by meteorology from the MERRA reanalysis. We compare the posterior fluxes and uncertainties derived using different data sets and the two inversion approaches, and evaluate the posterior atmospheric concentrations against independent data including aircraft measurements. The optimized fluxes generally resemble those from other studies. For example, the results indicate that the terrestrial biosphere is a net CO2 sink, and a GOSAT-only inversion suggests a shift in the global sink from the tropics south to the north relative to the prior and to an in-situ-only inversion. We also find a smaller terrestrial sink in higher-latitude northern regions in boreal summer of 2010 relative to 2009.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN28909 , AGU Fall Meeting 2015; Dec 14, 2015 - Dec 18, 2015; San Francisco, CA; United States
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  • 59
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: No abstract available
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: MSFC-E-DAA-TN28552 , American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2015; Dec 14, 2015 - Dec 18, 2015; San Francisco, CA; United States
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  • 60
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: Dengue virus is transmitted between humans and mosquitoes of the genus Aedes and causes approximately 96 million cases of disease (dengue fever) each year (Bhatet al. 2013). Symptoms of dengue fever include fever, headache, nausea, vomiting, and eye, muscle and joint pain (CDC). More sever manifestations such as abdominal pain, bleeding from nose and gums, vomiting of blood, and clammy skin occur in rare cases of dengue hemorrhagic fever (CDC). Dengue fever occurs throughout tropical and sub-tropical regions worldwide, however, the geographical range and size of epidemics is increasing. Weather and climate are drivers of dengue virus transmission dynamics (Morin et al. 2013) by affecting mosquito proliferation and the virus extrinsic incubation period (i.e. required time for the virus to replicate and disseminate within the mosquito before it can retransmit the virus).
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: MSFC-E-DAA-TN28443 , American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2015 (AGU Fall 2015); Dec 14, 2015 - Dec 18, 2015; San Francisco, CA; United States
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  • 61
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: No abstract available
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: MSFC-E-DAA-TN20190 , Annual American Meteorological Society Conference; Jan 04, 2015 - Jan 08, 2015; Phoenix, AZ; United States
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  • 62
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: No abstract available
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: MSFC-E-DAA-TN20129 , American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting; Jan 04, 2015 - Jan 08, 2015; Phoenix, AZ; United States|Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography; Jan 04, 2015 - Jan 08, 2015; Phoenix, AZ; United States
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  • 63
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: No abstract available
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: MSFC-E-DAA-TN20128 , Annual AMS Meeting; Jan 04, 2015 - Jan 08, 2015; Phoenix, AZ; United States
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  • 64
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: Using satellite-based methods that provide accurate 0-1 hour convective initiation (CI) nowcasts, and rely on proven success coupling satellite and radar fields in the Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS; operated and developed at MIT-Lincoln Laboratory), to subsequently monitor for first-flash lightning initiation (LI) and later period lightning trends as storms evolve. Enhance IR-based methods within the GOES-R CI Algorithm (that must meet specific thresholds for a given cumulus cloud before the cloud is considered to have an increased likelihood of producing lightning next 90 min) that forecast LI. Integrate GOES-R CI and LI fields with radar thresholds (e.g., first greater than or equal to 40 dBZ echo at the -10 C altitude) and NWP model data within the WDSS-II system for LI-events from new convective storms. Track ongoing lightning using Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) and pseudo-Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) data to assess per-storm lightning trends (e.g., as tied to lightning jumps) and outline threat regions. Evaluate the ability to produce LI nowcasts through a "lightning threat" product, and obtain feedback from National Weather Service forecasters on its value as a decision support tool.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: MSFC-E-DAA-TN20130 , Conference on the Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data; Jan 04, 2015 - Jan 08, 2015; Phoenix, AZ; United States
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  • 65
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: The Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite Limb Profiler (OMPS-LP) on board the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (SNPP) satellite was launched on Oct. 28, 2011. Limb profilers measures the radiance scattered from the Earth's atmospheric in limb viewing mode from 290 to 1000 nm and infer ozone profiles from tropopause to 60 km. The recently released OMPS-LP Version 2 data product contains the first publicly released ozone profiles retrievals, and these are now available for the entire OMPS mission, which extends from April, 2012. The Version 2 data product retrievals incorporate several important improvements to the algorithm. One of the primary changes is to turn off the aerosol retrieval module. The aerosol profiles retrieved inside the ozone code was not helping the ozone retrieval and was adding noise and other artifacts. Aerosols including polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) and polar mesospheric clouds (PMC) have a detectable effect on OMPS-LP data. Our results show that ignoring the aerosol contribution would produce an ozone density bias of up to 10 percent in the region of maximum aerosol extinction. Therefore, aerosol correction is needed to improve the quality of the retrieved ozone concentration profile. We provide Aerosol Scattering Index (ASI) for detecting aerosols-PMC-PSC, defined as ln(Im-Ic) normalized at 45km, where Im is the measured radiance and Ic is the calculated radiance assuming no aerosols. Since ASI varies with wavelengths, latitude and altitude, we can start by assuming no aerosol profiles in calculating the ASIs and then use the aerosol profile to see if it significantly reduces the residuals. We also discuss the effect of aerosol size distribution on the ozone profile retrieval process. Finally, we present an aerosol-PMC-PSC correction scheme.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN20567 , American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting; Jan 04, 2015 - Jan 08, 2015; Phoenix, AZ; United States
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  • 66
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: On February 27, 2014, the NASA Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission was launched to provide the next-generation global observations of rain and snow (http:pmm.nasa.govGPM). The GPM mission consists of an international network of satellites in which a GPM Core Observatory satellite carries both active and passive microwave instruments to measure precipitation and serve as a reference standard, to unify precipitation measurements from a constellation of other research and operational satellites. The NASA Goddard Earth Sciences (GES) Data and Information Services Center (DISC) hosts and distributes GPM data within the NASA Earth Observation System Data Information System (EOSDIS). The GES DISC is home to the data archive for the GPM predecessor, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). Over the past 16 years, the GES DISC has served the scientific as well as other communities with TRMM data and user-friendly services. During the GPM era, the GES DISC will continue to provide user-friendly data services and customer support to users around the world. GPM products currently and to-be available include the following: 1. Level-1 GPM Microwave Imager (GMI) and partner radiometer products. 2. Goddard Profiling Algorithm (GPROF) GMI and partner products. 3. Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) products. (early, late, and final)A dedicated Web portal (including user guides, etc.) has been developed for GPM data (http:disc.sci.gsfc.nasa.govgpm). Data services that are currently and to-be available include Google-like Mirador (http:mirador.gsfc.nasa.gov) for data search and access; data access through various Web services (e.g., OPeNDAP, GDS, WMS, WCS); conversion into various formats (e.g., netCDF, HDF, KML (for Google Earth), ASCII); exploration, visualization, and statistical online analysis through Giovanni (http:giovanni.gsfc.nasa.gov); generation of value-added products; parameter and spatial subsetting; time aggregation; regridding; data version control and provenance; documentation; science support for proper data usage, FAQ, help desk; monitoring services (e.g. Current Conditions) for applications.In this presentation, we will present GPM data products and services with examples.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN20296 , AMS Annual Meeting; Jan 04, 2015 - Jan 08, 2015; Phoenix, AZ; United States
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  • 67
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: Major stratospheric warmings (MSWs) are one of the most important phenomena of wintertime Arctic stratospheric variability. They consist of a warming of the Arctic stratosphere and a deceleration of the polar night jet, triggered by an anomalously high injection of tropospheric wave activity into the stratosphere. Due to the relevance and the impact of MSWs on the tropospheric circulation, several model studies have investigated their potential responses to climate change. However, a wide range of results has been obtained, extending from a future increase in the frequency of MSWs to a decrease. These discrepancies might be explained by different factors such as a competition of radiative and dynamical contributors with opposite effects on the Arctic polar vortex, biases of models to reproduce the related processes, or the metric chosen for the identification of MSWs. In this study, future changes in wintertime Arctic stratospheric variability are examined in order to obtaina more precise picture of future changes in the occurrence of MSWs. In particular, transient REFC2 simulations of different CCMs involved in the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) are used. These simulations extend from 1960 to 2100 and include forcings by halogens and greenhouse gases following the specifications of the CCMI-REF-C2 scenario. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea-ice distributions are either prescribed from coupled climate model integrations or calculated internally in the case of fully coupled atmosphere-ocean CCMs. Potential changes in the frequency and main characteristics of MSWs in the future are investigated with special focus on the dependence of the results on the criterion for the identification of MSWs and the tropospheric forcing of these phenomena.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN20125 , Conference on the Middle Atmosphere; Jan 04, 2015 - Jan 08, 2015; Phoenix, AZ; United States|American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting; Jan 04, 2015 - Jan 08, 2015; Phoenix, AZ; United States
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  • 68
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: No abstract available
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: MSFC-E-DAA-TN26865 , 2015 EUMETSAT Meteorological Satellite Conference; Sep 21, 2015 - Sep 25, 2015; Toulouse; France
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  • 69
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: The retrieval of the column-averaged carbon dioxide (CO2) dry air mole fraction (XCO2 ) from satellite measurements of reflected sunlight in the near-infrared can be biased due to contamination by clouds and aerosols within the instrument's field of view (FOV). Therefore, accurate aerosol and cloud screening of soundings is required prior to their use in the computationally expensive XCO2 retrieval algorithm. Robust cloud screening methods have been an important focus of the retrieval algorithm team for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2), which was successfully launched into orbit on July 2, 2014. Two distinct spectrally-based algorithms have been developed for the purpose of cloud clearing OCO-2 soundings. The A-Band Preprocessor (ABP) performs a retrieval of surface pressure using measurements in the 0.76 micron O2 A-band to distinguish changes in the expected photon path length. The Iterative Maximum A-Posteriori (IMAP) Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (DOAS) (IDP) algorithm is a non- scattering routine that operates on the O2 A-band as well as two CO2 absorption bands at 1.6 m (weak CO2 band) and 2.0 m (strong CO2 band) to provide band-dependent estimates of CO2 and H2O. Spectral ratios of retrieved CO2 and H2O identify measurements contaminated with cloud and scattering aerosols. Information from the two preprocessors is feed into a sounding selection tool to strategically down select from the order one million daily soundings collected by OCO-2 to a manageable number (order 10 to 20%) to be processed by the OCO-2 L2 XCO2 retrieval algorithm. Regional biases or errors in the selection of clear-sky soundings will introduce errors in the final retrieved XCO2 values, ultimately yielding errors in the flux inversion models used to determine global sources and sinks of CO2. In this work collocated measurements from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS), aboard the Aqua platform, and the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP), aboard the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) satellite, are used as a reference to access the accuracy and strengths and weaknesses of the OCO-2 screening algorithms. The combination of the ABP and IDP algorithms is shown to provide very robust and complimentary cloud filtering as compared to the results from MODIS and CALIOP. With idealized algorithm tuning to allow throughputs of 20-25%, correct classification of scenes, i.e., accuracies, are found to be ' 80-90% over several orbit repeat cycles in both the win ter and spring time for the three main viewing configurations of OCO-2; nadir-land, glint-land and glint-water. Investigation unveiled no major spatial or temporal dependencies, although slight differences in the seasonal data sets do exist and classification tends to be more problematic with increasing solar zenith angle and when surfaces are covered in snow and ice. An in depth analysis on both a simulated data set and real OCO-2 measurements against CALIOP highlight the strength of the ABP in identifying high, thin clouds while it often misses clouds near the surface even when the optical thickness is greater than 1. Fortunately, by combining the ABP with the IDP, the number of thick low clouds passing the preprocessors is partially mitigated.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN28802 , Atmospheric Measurement Techniques (e-ISSN 1867-8610); 8; 12; 12663–12707
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  • 70
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: No abstract available
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: MSFC-E-DAA-TN28613 , American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2015; Dec 14, 2015 - Dec 18, 2015; San Francisco, CA; United States
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  • 71
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: Precipitation is a vital aspect of our lives droughts, floods and other related disasters that involve precipitation can cause costly damage in the economic system and general society. Purpose of this project is to determine what, if any effect do hurricanes have on annual precipitation in Maryland Research will be conducted on Marylands terrain, climatology, annual precipitation, and precipitation contributed from hurricanes Possible connections to climate change
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN28737 , AGU Fall Meeting; Dec 14, 2015 - Dec 18, 2015; San Francisco, CA; United States
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  • 72
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: The physical and chemical properties of soil dust aerosol particles fundamentally affect their interaction with climate, including shortwave absorption and radiative forcing, nucleation of cloud droplets and ice crystals, heterogeneous formation of sulfates and nitrates on the surface of dust particles, and atmospheric processing of iron into bioavailable forms that increase the productivity of marine phytoplankton. Lidar measurements, such as extinction-to-backscatter, color and depolarization ratios, are frequently used to distinguish between aerosol types with different physical and chemical properties. The chemical composition of aerosol particles determines their complex refractive index, hence affecting their backscattering properties. Here we present a study on how dust aerosol backscattering and depolarization properties at wavelengths of 355, 532 and 1064 nm are related to size and complex refractive index, which varies with the mineral composition of the dust. Dust aerosols are represented by collections of spheroids with a range of prolate and oblate aspect ratios and their optical properties are obtained using T-matrix calculations. We find simple, systematic relationships between lidar observables and the dust size and complex refractive index that may aid the use of space-based or airborne lidars for direct retrieval of dust properties or for the evaluation of chemical transport models using forward simulated lidar variables. In addition, we present first results on the spatial variation of forward-simulated lidar variables based on a dust model that accounts for the atmospheric cycle of eight different mineral types plus internal mixtures of seven mineral types with iron oxides, which was recently implemented in the NASA GISS Earth System ModelE2.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN28739 , AGU Fall Meeting; Dec 14, 2015 - Dec 18, 2015; San Francisco, CA; United States
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  • 73
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: Despite their importance and ubiquity in the atmosphere, organic aerosols are still very poorly parameterized in global models. This can be explained by two reasons: first, a very large number of unconstrained parameters are involved in accurate parameterizations, and second, a detailed description of semi-volatile organics is computationally very expensive. Even organic aerosol properties that are known to play a major role in the atmosphere, namely volatility and aging, are poorly resolved in global models, if at all. Studies with different models and different parameterizations have not been conclusive on whether the additional complexity improves model simulations, but the added diversity of the different host models used adds an unnecessary degree of variability in the evaluation of results that obscures solid conclusions. Aerosol microphysics do not significantly alter the mean OA vertical profile or comparison with surface measurements. This might not be the case for semi-volatile OA with microphysics.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN28661 , IAMA CONFERENCE 2015; Dec 09, 2015 - Dec 11, 2015; Davis, CA; United States
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  • 74
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: The key uncertainties in the climate sensitivity to the increasing greenhouse gases lie in the behavior and impact of short-lived species, such as tropospheric aerosols and ozone, and secondly, in the response and impact of the ocean circulation.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN28682 , AGU Fall Meeting; Dec 14, 2015 - Dec 18, 2015; San Francisco, CA; United States
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  • 75
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: The condensation of organic aerosols is represented in a newly developed box-model scheme, where its effect on the growth and composition of particles are examined. We implemented the volatility-basis set (VBS) framework into the aerosol mixing state resolving microphysical scheme Multiconfiguration Aerosol TRacker of mIXing state (MATRIX). This new scheme is unique and advances the representation of organic aerosols in models in that, contrary to the traditional treatment of organic aerosols as non-volatile in most climate models and in the original version of MATRIX, this new scheme treats them as semi-volatile. Such treatment is important because low-volatility organics contribute significantly to the growth of particles. The new scheme includes several classes of semi-volatile organic compounds from the VBS framework that can partition among aerosol populations in MATRIX, thus representing the growth of particles via condensation of low volatility organic vapors. Results from test cases representing Mexico City and a Finish forrest condistions show good representation of the time evolutions of concentration for VBS species in the gas phase and in the condensed particulate phase. Emitted semi-volatile primary organic aerosols evaporate almost completely in the high volatile range, and they condense more efficiently in the low volatility range.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN28688 , AGU Fall Meeting; Dec 14, 2015 - Dec 18, 2015; San Francisco, CA; United States
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  • 76
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: The Asian Monsoon leads to rapid vertical transport of gases and aerosols into the upper troposphere. Some of the pollution might be transported above cloud levels, which will allow it to spread globally and possibly at some occasions reach into the stratosphere. In this study we will use the GISS climate model to investigate the interactions between pollution and convective transport as well as secondary aerosol formation. Pollution resulting from anthropogenic activity as well as from natural sources such as small and large volcanic eruptions, dust storms and forest fires will be quantified. This modeling study will be accompanied by satellite observations from space that monitor aerosol optical thickness (AOT), and absorption AOT (AAOT) in two and three dimensions. Our goal is a better process level understanding of the evolution of natural and anthropogenic aerosol plumes in conjunction with the Asian Monsoon. Hence, we aim to explain their large-scale expansion, which eventually determines their impacts on climate.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN28684 , AGU Fall Meeting; Dec 14, 2015 - Dec 18, 2015; San Francisco, CA; United States
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  • 77
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: Despite their importance and ubiquity in the atmosphere, organic aerosols are still very poorly parameterized in global models. This can be explained by two reasons: first, a very large number of unconstrained parameters are involved in accurate parameterizations, and second, a detailed description of semi-volatile organics is computationally very expensive. Even organic aerosol properties that are known to play a major role in the atmosphere, namely volatility and aging, are poorly resolved in global models, if at all. Studies with different models and different parameterizations have not been conclusive on whether the additional complexity improves model simulations, but the added diversity of the different host models used adds an unnecessary degree of variability in the evaluation of results that obscures solid conclusions.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN28663 , AGU Fall Meeting; Dec 14, 2015 - Dec 18, 2015; San Francisco, CA; United States
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  • 78
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: Interannual variations of latent heat fluxes (LHF) and sensible heat fluxes (SHF) over the Mediterranean for the boreal winter season (DJF) show positive trends during 1958-2011. Comparison of correlations between the heat fluxes and the intensity and location of the Azores High (AH), and the NAO and East Atlantic-West Russia (EAWR) teleconnections, along with analysis of composites of surface temperature, humidity and wind fields for different teleconnection states, demonstrates that variations of the AH are found to explain the heat flux changes more successfully than the NAO and the EAWR. Trends in sea level pressure and longitude of the Azores High during DJF show a strengthening, and an eastward shift. DJF Azores High pressure and longitude are shown to co-vary such that variability of the Azores High occurs along an axis defined by lower pressure and westward location at one extreme, and higher pressure and eastward location at the other extreme. The shift of the Azores High from predominance of the low/west state to the high/east state induces trends in Mediterranean Sea surface winds, temperature and moisture. These, combined with sea surface warming trends, produce trends in wintertime Mediterranean Sea sensible and latent heat fluxes.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN28581 , AGU Fall Meeting; Dec 14, 2015 - Dec 18, 2015; San Francisco, CA; United States
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  • 79
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: Progress in realistically simulating the energy and water cycles in weather and climate models has been slower than desirable. Climate models submitted to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase-5 (CMIP-5), while more comprehensive than their predecessors, have shown little to no improvement in their biases in simulating key features of the climate system. As a result, uncertainties in global climate and hydrological sensitivities, and in the simulation of regional climate change, have not been reduced significantly. It is time to make use of these opportunities to significantly advance our understanding of key energy and water cycle processes at a wide range of space and time scales, and to provide a more insightful evaluation of the representation of these processes within models. This will require new ways of both analyzing the observations and diagnosing model behavior. The keys to success will be in skillfully combining different data sets and exploring relationships between them, as well as in the ability of models to reproduce those relationships correctly. In response to this challenge, a new GEWEX-wide activity, the GEWEX Process Evaluation Study, will take advantage of the opportunities that the combination of many of the existing data sets provide.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN28431 , GEWEX News; 27; 4; 4-5
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  • 80
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: A linearized prognostic cloud scheme has been developed to accompany the linearized convection scheme recently implemented in NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System data assimilation tools. The linearization, developed from the nonlinear cloud scheme, treats cloud variables prognostically so they are subject to linearized advection, diffusion, generation, and evaporation. Four linearized cloud variables are modeled, the ice and water phases of clouds generated by large-scale condensation and, separately, by detraining convection. For each species the scheme models their sources, sublimation, evaporation, and autoconversion. Large-scale, anvil and convective species of precipitation are modeled and evaporated. The cloud scheme exhibits linearity and realistic perturbation growth, except around the generation of clouds through large-scale condensation. Discontinuities and steep gradients are widely used here and severe problems occur in the calculation of cloud fraction. For data assimilation applications this poor behavior is controlled by replacing this part of the scheme with a perturbation model. For observation impacts, where efficiency is less of a concern, a filtering is developed that examines the Jacobian. The replacement scheme is only invoked if Jacobian elements or eigenvalues violate a series of tuned constants. The linearized prognostic cloud scheme is tested by comparing the linear and nonlinear perturbation trajectories for 6-, 12-, and 24-h forecast times. The tangent linear model performs well and perturbations of clouds are well captured for the lead times of interest.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN28220 , Monthly Weather Review; 143; 10; 4198-4219
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  • 81
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: We explore the skill of predictions of September Arctic sea ice extent from dynamical models participating in the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO). Forecasts submitted in August, at roughly 2 month lead times, are skillful. However, skill is lower in forecasts submitted to SIO, which began in 2008, than in hindcasts (retrospective forecasts) of the last few decades. The multimodel mean SIO predictions offer slightly higher skill than the single-model SIO predictions, but neither beats a damped persistence forecast at longer than 2 month lead times. The models are largely unsuccessful at predicting each other, indicating a large difference in model physics and/or initial conditions. Motivated by this, we perform an initial condition sensitivity experiment with four SIO models, applying a fixed 1 m perturbation to the initial sea ice thickness. The significant range of the response among the models suggests that different model physics make a significant contribution to forecast uncertainty.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN28221 , Geophysical Research Letters; 42; 19; 8042-8048
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  • 82
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: Two systematic calibrations have been compiled for the visible radiances measured by the series of AVHRR instruments flown on the NOAA operational polar weather satellites: one by the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP), anchored on NASA ER-2 underflights in the 1980s and early 1990s and covering the period 1981-2009, and one by the PATMOS-x project, anchored on comparisons to the MODIS instruments on the Aqua and Terra satellites in the 2000s and covering the period 1979-2010 (this result also includes calibration for the near-IR channels). Both methods have had to extend their anchor calibrations over a long series of instruments using different vicarious approaches, so a comparison provides an opportunity to evaluate how well this extension works by cross-checking the results at the anchor points. The basic result of this comparison is that for the ''afternoon'' series of AVHRRs, the calibrations agree to within their mutual uncertainties. However, this retrospective evaluation also shows that the representation of the time variations can be simplified. The ISCCP procedure had much more difficulty extending the calibration to the ''morning'' series of AVHRRs with the calibrations for NOAA-15 and NOAA-17 exceeding the estimated uncertainties. Given the general agreement, a new calibration for all AVHRR visible radiances (except TIROS-N, NOAA-6, NOAA-19, and MetOp-A) is proposed that is based on the average of the best linear fits to the two time records. The estimated uncertainty of these calibrations is 63% absolute (scaled radiance units).
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN18859 , Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology; 32; 4; 744-766
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  • 83
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: Capsule: A 21-month deployment to Graciosa Island in the northeastern Atlantic Ocean is providing an unprecedented record of the clouds, aerosols and meteorology in a poorly-sampled remote marine environment The Clouds, Aerosol, and Precipitation in the Marine Boundary Layer (CAP-MBL) deployment at Graciosa Island in the Azores generated a 21 month (April 2009- December 2010) comprehensive dataset documenting clouds, aerosols and precipitation using the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Mobile Facility (AMF). The scientific aim of the deployment is to gain improved understanding of the interactions of clouds, aerosols and precipitation in the marine boundary layer. Graciosa Island straddles the boundary between the subtropics and midlatitudes in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean, and consequently experiences a great diversity of meteorological and cloudiness conditions. Low clouds are the dominant cloud type, with stratocumulus and cumulus occurring regularly. Approximately half of all clouds contained precipitation detectable as radar echoes below the cloud base. Radar and satellite observations show that clouds with tops from 1- 11 km contribute more or less equally to surface-measured precipitation at Graciosa. A wide range of aerosol conditions was sampled during the deployment consistent with the diversity of sources as indicated by back trajectory analysis. Preliminary findings suggest important two-way interactions between aerosols and clouds at Graciosa, with aerosols affecting light precipitation and cloud radiative properties while being controlled in part by precipitation scavenging. The data from at Graciosa are being compared with short-range forecasts made a variety of models. A pilot analysis with two climate and two weather forecast models shows that they reproduce the observed time-varying vertical structure of lower-tropospheric cloud fairly well, but the cloud-nucleating aerosol concentrations less well. The Graciosa site has been chosen to be a permanent fixed ARM site that became operational in October 2013.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN19573 , Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society; 96; 3; 419-439
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  • 84
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: Subtropical marine stratus clouds regulate coastal and global climate, but future trends in these clouds are uncertain. In coastal Southern California (CSCA), interannual variations in summer stratus cloud occurrence are spatially coherent across 24 airfields and dictated by positive relationships with stability above the marine boundary layer (MBL) and MBL height. Trends, however, have been spatially variable since records began in the mid-1900s due to differences in nighttime warming. Among CSCA airfields, differences in nighttime warming, but not daytime warming, are strongly and positively related to fraction of nearby urban cover, consistent with an urban heat island effect. Nighttime warming raises the near-surface dew point depression, which lifts the altitude of condensation and cloud base height, thereby reducing fog frequency. Continued urban warming, rising cloud base heights, and associated effects on energy and water balance would profoundly impact ecological and human systems in highly populated and ecologically diverse CSCA.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN21618 , Geophysical Research Letters; 42; 5; 1527-1536
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  • 85
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: The 11 year solar-cycle component of climate variability is assessed in historical simulations of models taken from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP-5). Multiple linear regression is applied to estimate the zonal temperature, wind and annular mode responses to a typical solar cycle, with a focus on both the stratosphere and the stratospheric influence on the surface over the period approximately 1850-2005. The analysis is performed on all CMIP-5 models but focuses on the 13 CMIP-5 models that resolve the stratosphere (high-top models) and compares the simulated solar cycle signature with reanalysis data. The 11 year solar cycle component of climate variability is found to be weaker in terms of magnitude and latitudinal gradient around the stratopause in the models than in the reanalysis. The peak in temperature in the lower equatorial stratosphere (approximately 70 hPa) reported in some studies is found in the models to depend on the length of the analysis period, with the last 30 years yielding the strongest response. A modification of the Polar Jet Oscillation (PJO) in response to the 11 year solar cycle is not robust across all models, but is more apparent in models with high spectral resolution in the short-wave region. The PJO evolution is slower in these models, leading to a stronger response during February, whereas observations indicate it to be weaker. In early winter, the magnitude of the modeled response is more consistent with observations when only data from 1979-2005 are considered. The observed North Pacific high-pressure surface response during the solar maximum is only simulated in some models, for which there are no distinguishing model characteristics. The lagged North Atlantic surface response is reproduced in both high- and low-top models, but is more prevalent in the former. In both cases, the magnitude of the response is generally lower than in observations.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN22194 , Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society; 141; 691; 2390-2403
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  • 86
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: Current understanding of the factors controlling biogenic isoprene emissions and of the fate of isoprene oxidation products in the atmosphere has been evolving rapidly. We use a climate-biosphere-chemistry modeling framework to evaluate the sensitivity of estimates of the tropospheric oxidative capacity to uncertainties in isoprene emissions and photochemistry. Our work focuses on trends across two time horizons: from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 000 years BP) to the preindustrial (1770s); and from the preindustrial to the present day (1990s). We find that different oxidants have different sensitivities to the uncertainties tested in this study, with OH being the most sensitive: changes in the global mean OH levels for the LGM-to-preindustrial transition range between -29 and +7, and those for the preindustrial-to-present day transition range between -8 and +17, across our simulations. Our results suggest that the observed glacial-interglacial variability in atmospheric methane concentrations is predominantly driven by changes in methane sources as opposed to changes in OH, the primary methane sink. However, the magnitudes of change are subject to uncertainties in the past isoprene global burdens, as are estimates of the change in the global burden of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) relative to the preindustrial. We show that the linear relationship between tropospheric mean OH and tropospheric mean ozone photolysis rates, water vapor, and total emissions of NOx and reactive carbon first reported in Murray et al. (2014) does not hold across all periods with the new isoprene photochemistry mechanism. Our results demonstrate that inadequacies in our understanding of present-day OH and its controlling factors must be addressed in order to improve model estimates of the oxidative capacity of past and present atmospheres.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN21870 , Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics; 15; 14; 7977-7998
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  • 87
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: The primary product of the Global Aerosol Climatology Project (GACP) is a continuous record of the aerosol optical thickness (AOT) over the oceans. It is based on channel-1 and -2 radiance data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) instruments flown on successive National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) platforms. We extend the previous GACP dataset by four years through the end of 2009 using NOAA-17 and -18 AVHRR radiances recalibrated against MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) radiance data, thereby making the GACP record almost three decades long. The temporal overlap of over three years of the new NOAA-17 and the previous NOAA-16 record reveals an excellent agreement of the corresponding global monthly mean AOT values, thereby confirming the robustness of the vicarious radiance calibration used in the original GACP product. The temporal overlap of the NOAA-17 and -18 instruments is used to introduce a small additive adjustment to the channel-2 calibration of the latter resulting in a consistent record with increased data density. The Principal Component Analysis (PCA) of the newly extended GACP record shows that most of the volcanic AOT variability can be isolated into one mode responsible for ~12% of the total variance. This conclusion is confirmed by a combined PCA analysis of the GACP, MODIS, andMulti-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) AOTs during the volcano-free period fromFebruary 2000 to December 2009.We show that the modes responsible for the tropospheric AOT variability in the three datasets agree well in terms of correlation and spatial patterns. A previously identified negative AOT trend which started in the late 1980s and continued into the early 2000s is confirmed. Its magnitude and duration indicate that it was caused by changes in tropospheric aerosols. The latest multi-satellite segment of the GACP record shows that this trend tapered off, with no noticeable AOT change after 2002. This result is consistent with the MODIS andMISR AOT records as well as with the recent gradual reversal frombrightening to dimming revealed by surface flux measurements in many aerosol producing regions. Thus the robustness of the GACP record is confirmed, increasing our confidence in the validity of the negative trend. Although the nominal negative GACP AOT trend could partially be an artifact of increasing aerosol absorption, we argue that the time dependence of the GACP record, including the latest flat period, is more consistent with the actual decrease in the tropospheric AOT.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN24041 , Atmospheric Research; 164-165; 268-277
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  • 88
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: Recent satellite determinations of global distributions of absolute gravity wave (GW) momentum fluxes in the lower stratosphere show maxima over the summer subtropical continents and little evidence of GW momentum fluxes associated with the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). This seems to be at odds with parameterizations forGWmomentum fluxes, where the source is a function of latent heating rates, which are largest in the region of the ITCZ in terms of monthly averages. The authors have examined global distributions of atmospheric latent heating, cloud-top-pressure altitudes, and lower-stratosphere absolute GW momentum fluxes and have found that monthly averages of the lower-stratosphere GW momentum fluxes more closely resemble the monthly mean cloud-top altitudes rather than the monthly mean rates of latent heating. These regions of highest cloud-top altitudes occur when rates of latent heating are largest on the time scale of cloud growth. This, plus previously published studies, suggests that convective sources for stratospheric GW momentum fluxes, being a function of the rate of latent heating, will require either a climate model to correctly model this rate of latent heating or some ad hoc adjustments to account for shortcomings in a climate model's land-sea differences in convective latent heating.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN23287 , Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences; 72; 7; 2762-2768
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  • 89
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: Soil dust aerosols created by wind erosion are typically assigned globally uniform physical and chemical properties within Earth system models, despite known regional variations in the mineral content of the parent soil. Mineral composition of the aerosol particles is important to their interaction with climate, including shortwave absorption and radiative forcing, nucleation of cloud droplets and ice crystals, heterogeneous formation of sulfates and nitrates, and atmospheric processing of iron into bioavailable forms that increase the productivity of marine phytoplankton. Here, aerosol mineral composition is derived by extending a method that provides the composition of a wet-sieved soil. The extension accounts for measurements showing significant differences between the mineral fractions of the wetsieved soil and the emitted aerosol concentration. For example, some phyllosilicate aerosols are more prevalent at silt sizes, even though they are nearly absent at these diameters in a soil whose aggregates are dispersed by wet sieving. We calculate the emitted mass of each mineral with respect to size by accounting for the disintegration of soil aggregates during wet sieving. These aggregates are emitted during mobilization and fragmentation of the original undispersed soil that is subject to wind erosion. The emitted aggregates are carried far downwind from their parent soil. The soil mineral fractions used to calculate the aggregates also include larger particles that are suspended only in the vicinity of the source. We calculate the emitted size distribution of these particles using a normalized distribution derived from aerosol measurements. In addition, a method is proposed for mixing minerals with small impurities composed of iron oxides. These mixtures are important for transporting iron far from the dust source, because pure iron oxides are more dense and vulnerable to gravitational removal than most minerals comprising dust aerosols. A limited comparison to measurements from North Africa shows that the model extensions result in better agreement, consistent with a more extensive comparison to global observations as well as measurements of elemental composition downwind of the Sahara, as described in companion articles.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN20980 , Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics; 15; 11593-11627
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  • 90
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: Extreme monsoon rainfall in India has disastrous consequences, including significant socio- economic impacts. However, little is known about the overall trends and climate factors associated with extreme rainfall because rainfall greatly varies across India and because few appropriate methods are available to measure extreme rainfall in the context of such heterogeneity. To provide a comprehensive assessment of extreme monsoon rainfall, we developed a metric using record rainfall data to measure the changes in the likelihood of extreme high and extreme low rainfall over time; this metric is independent of the characteristics of the underlying rainfall distributions. Hence, the metric is ideally suited to aggregate extreme rainfall information across heterogeneous regions covering India. We found that from 1930 to 2013, the likelihood of extreme high and extreme low rainfall increases 2-fold and 4-fold, respectively. These overall trend increases are driven by anomalous increases, particularly in the early 2000s; the likelihood of extreme high and extreme low rainfall increases 5-fold and 18-fold in 2005 and 2002, respectively. These findings imply a broadening of the underlying monsoon rainfall distribution over the past century. We also show that the time patterns of the likelihood of extreme rainfall in recent decades are correlated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, and surface air temperature in the Northern Hemisphere.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN21008 , Journal of Climate (ISSN 0894-8755) (e-ISSN 1520-0442); 28; 7; 2842-2855
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  • 91
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: We use the new version of NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate model, modelE2 with 2 by 2.5 horizontal resolution and 40 vertical layers, with the model top at 0.1 hPa [Schmidt et al., 2014]. We use two different treatments of the atmospheric composition and aerosol indirect effect: (1) TCAD(I) version has fully interactive Tracers of Aerosols and Chemistry in both the troposphere and stratosphere. This model predicts total aerosol number and mass concentrations [Shindell et al., 2013]; (2) TCAM is the aerosol microphysics and chemistry model based on the quadrature methods of moments [Bauer et al., 2008]. Both TCADI and TCAM models include the first indirect effect of aerosols on clouds [Menon et al., 2010]; the TCAD model includes only the direct aerosol effect. We consider the results of the TCAD, TCADI and TCAM models coupled to "Russell ocean model" [Russell et al., 1995], E2-R. We examine the climate response for the "historical period" that include the natural and anthropogenic forcings for 1850 to 2012. The effect of clouds, their feedbacks, as well as the aerosol-cloud interactions are assessed for the transient climate change.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN27994 , Workshop on CMIP5 Model Analysis and Scientific Plans for CMIP6 (WCRP); Oct 20, 2015 - Oct 23, 2015; Dubrovnik; Croatia
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  • 92
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: In humid, broadleaf-dominated forests where gap dynamics and partial canopy mortality appears to dominate the disturbance regime at local scales, paleoecological evidence shows alteration at regional-scales associated with climatic change. Yet, little evidence of these broad-scale events exists in extant forests. To evaluate the potential for the occurrence of large-scale disturbance, we used 76 tree-ring collections spanning approx. 840 000 sq km and 5327 tree recruitment dates spanning approx. 1.4 million sq km across the humid eastern United States. Rotated principal component analysis indicated a common growth pattern of a simultaneous reduction in competition in 22 populations across 61 000 km2. Growth-release analysis of these populations reveals an intense and coherent canopy disturbance from 1775 to 1780, peaking in 1776. The resulting time series of canopy disturbance is so poorly described by a Gaussian distribution that it can be described as ''heavy tailed,'' with most of the years from 1775 to 1780 comprising the heavy-tail portion of the distribution. Historical documents provide no evidence that hurricanes or ice storms triggered the 1775-1780 event. Instead, we identify a significant relationship between prior drought and years with elevated rates of disturbance with an intense drought occurring from 1772 to 1775. We further find that years with high rates of canopy disturbance have a propensity to create larger canopy gaps indicating repeated opportunities for rapid change in species composition beyond the landscape scale. Evidence of elevated, regional-scale disturbance reveals how rare events can potentially alter system trajectory: a substantial portion of old-growth forests examined here originated or were substantially altered more than two centuries ago following events lasting just a few years. Our recruitment data, comprised of at least 21 species and several shade-intolerant species, document a pulse of tree recruitment at the subcontinental scale during the late-1600s suggesting that this event was severe enough to open large canopy gaps. These disturbances and their climatic drivers support the hypothesis that punctuated, episodic, climatic events impart a legacy in broadleaf-dominated forests centuries after their occurrence. Given projections of future drought, these results also reveal the potential for abrupt, meso- to large-scale forest change in broadleaf-dominated forests over future decades.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN18973 , Ecological Monographs; 84; 4; 599-620
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  • 93
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: The NASA Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) mission is an aircraft field measurements program using NASA's unmanned Global Hawk aircraft system for remote sensing and in situ observations of Atlantic and Caribbean Sea hurricanes. One of the principal microwave instruments is the Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD), which measures surface wind speeds and rain rates. For validation of the HIRAD wind speed measurement in hurricanes, there exists a comprehensive set of comparisons with the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR) with in situ GPS dropwindsondes [1]. However, for rain rate measurements, there are only indirect correlations with rain imagery from other HS3 remote sensors (e.g., the dual-frequency Ka- & Ku-band doppler radar, HIWRAP), which is only qualitative in nature. However, this paper presents results from an unplanned rain rate measurement validation opportunity that occurred in 2013, when HIRAD flew over an intense tropical squall line that was simultaneously observed by the Tampa NEXRAD meteorological radar (Fig. 1). During this experiment, Global Hawk flying at an altitude of 18 km made 3 passes over the rapidly propagating thunderstorm, while the TAMPA NEXRAD perform volume scans on a 5-minute interval. Using the well-documented NEXRAD Z-R relationship, 2D images of rain rate (mm/hr) were obtained at two altitudes (3 km & 6 km), which serve as surface truth for the HIRAD rain rate retrievals. A preliminary comparison of HIRAD rain rate retrievals (image) for the first pass and the corresponding closest NEXRAD rain image is presented in Fig. 2 & 3. This paper describes the HIRAD instrument, which 1D synthetic-aperture thinned array radiometer (STAR) developed by NASA Marshall Space Flight Center [2]. The rain rate retrieval algorithm, developed by Amarin et al. [3], is based on the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) technique, which compares the observed Tb's at the HIRAD operating frequencies of 4, 5, 6 and 6.6 GHz with corresponding theoretical Tb values from a forward radiative transfer model (RTM). The optimum solution is the integrated rain rate that minimizes the difference between RTM and observed values. Because the excess Tb from rain comes from the direct upwelling and the indirect reflected downwelling paths through the atmosphere, there are several assumptions made for the 2D rain distribution in the antenna incident plane (crosstrack to flight direction). The opportunity to knowing 2D rain surface truth from NEXRAD at two different altitudes will enable a comprehensive evaluation to be preformed and reported in this paper.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: MSFC-E-DAA-TN20510 , IGARSS 2015; Jul 26, 2015 - Jul 31, 2015; Milan; Italy
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  • 94
    Publication Date: 2019-07-12
    Description: A faithful representation of polar stratospheric chemistry in models and its connection with dynamical variability is essential for our understanding of the evolution of the ozone layer in a changing climate and during the projected continuing decline of ozone depleting substances in the atmosphere. We use a new configuration of the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System with a stratospheric chemistry model to study ozone depletion in the Arctic polar stratosphere during the exceptionally cold (in the stratosphere) winters 2015/2016 and 2010/2011.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN42317
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  • 95
    Publication Date: 2019-07-12
    Description: Over the past 15 years, the northeastern United States has seen a statistically significant increase in the frequency of extreme precipitation events that is larger and more widespread than anywhere else in the country. This increase in events is more likely to be associated with frontal and low-pressure systems, rather than being caused by more tropical cyclones impacting the region.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN42316
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  • 96
    Publication Date: 2019-07-12
    Description: This study provides a better understanding of the relationships between the trends of mean and extreme precipitation in two observed precipitation data sets: the Climate Prediction Center Unified daily precipitation data set and the Global Precipitation Climatology Program (GPCP) pentad data set. The study employs three kinds of definitions of extreme precipitation: (1) percentile, (2) standard deviation and (3) generalize extreme value (GEV) distribution analysis for extreme events based on local statistics. Relationship between trends in the mean and extreme precipitation is identified with a novel metric, i.e. area aggregated matching ratio (AAMR) computed on regional and global scales. Generally, more (less) extreme events are likely to occur in regions with a positive (negative) mean trend. The match between the mean and extreme trends deteriorates for increasingly heavy precipitation events. The AAMR is higher in regions with negative mean trends than in regions with positive mean trends, suggesting a higher likelihood of severe dry events, compared with heavy rain events in a warming climate. AAMR is found to be higher in tropics and oceans than in the extratropics and land regions, reflecting a higher degree of randomness and more important dynamical rather than thermodynamical contributions of extreme events in the latter regions.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN39216 , International Journal of Climatology
    Format: text
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  • 97
    Publication Date: 2019-07-12
    Description: This report documents analysis results of the Kennedy Space Center updated 50-MHz Doppler Radar Wind Profiler (DRWP) Operational Acceptance Test (OAT). This test was designed to demonstrate that the new DRWP operates in a similar manner to the previous DRWP for use as a situational awareness asset for mission operations at the Eastern Range to identify rapid changes in the wind environment that weather balloons cannot depict. Data examination and two analyses showed that the updated DRWP meets the specifications in the OAT test plan and performs at least as well as the previous DRWP. Data examination verified that the DRWP provides complete profiles every five minutes from 1.8-19.5 km in vertical increments of 150 m. Analysis of 5,426 wind component reports from 49 concurrent DRWP and balloon profiles presented root mean square (RMS) wind component differences around 2.0 m/s. The DRWP's effective vertical resolution (EVR) was found to be 300 m for both the westerly and southerly wind component, which the best EVR possible given the DRWP's vertical sampling interval. A third analysis quantified the sensitivity to rejecting data that do not have adequate signal by assessing the number of first-guess propagations at each altitude. This report documents the data, quality control procedures, methodology, and results of each analysis. It also shows that analysis of the updated DRWP produced results that were at least as good as the previous DRWP with proper rationale. The report recommends acceptance of the updated DRWP for situational awareness usage as per the OAT's intent.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: ESSSA-FY15-1287 , KSC-E-DAA-TN24218
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 98
    Publication Date: 2019-07-12
    Description: Climate change is a significant risk for agricultural production. Even under optimistic scenarios for climate mitigation action, present-day agricultural areas are likely to face significant increases in temperatures in the coming decades, in addition to changes in precipitation, cloud cover, and the frequency and duration of extreme heat, drought, and flood events (IPCC, 2013). These factors will affect the agricultural system at the global scale by impacting cultivation regimes, prices, trade, and food security (Nelson et al., 2014a). Global-scale evaluation of crop productivity is a major challenge for climate impact and adaptation assessment. Rigorous global assessments that are able to inform planning and policy will benefit from consistent use of models, input data, and assumptions across regions and time that use mutually agreed protocols designed by the modeling community. To ensure this consistency, large-scale assessments are typically performed on uniform spatial grids, with spatial resolution of typically 10 to 50 km, over specified time-periods. Many distinct crop models and model types have been applied on the global scale to assess productivity and climate impacts, often with very different results (Rosenzweig et al., 2014). These models are based to a large extent on field-scale crop process or ecosystems models and they typically require resolved data on weather, environmental, and farm management conditions that are lacking in many regions (Bondeau et al., 2007; Drewniak et al., 2013; Elliott et al., 2014b; Gueneau et al., 2012; Jones et al., 2003; Liu et al., 2007; Muller and Robertson, 2014; Van den Hoof et al., 2011;Waha et al., 2012; Xiong et al., 2014). Due to data limitations, the requirements of consistency, and the computational and practical limitations of running models on a large scale, a variety of simplifying assumptions must generally be made regarding prevailing management strategies on the grid scale in both the baseline and future periods. Implementation differences in these and other modeling choices contribute to significant variation among global-scale crop model assessments in addition to differences in crop model implementations that also cause large differences in site-specific crop modeling (Asseng et al., 2013; Bassu et al., 2014).
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN21943 , Handbook of Climate Change and Agroecosystems; 175-189
    Format: text
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  • 99
    Publication Date: 2019-07-12
    Description: An array of rotating sunshades based on emerging solar sail technology will be deployed in a novel Earth orbit to provide near-continuous partial shading of the Earth, reducing the heat input to the atmosphere by blocking a small percentage of the incoming sunlight, and mitigating local weather effects of anticipated climate change over the next century. The technology will provide local cooling relief during extreme heat events (and heating relief during extreme cold events) thereby saving human lives, agriculture, livestock, water and energy needs. A synthesis of the solar sail design, the sails' operational modes, and the selected orbit combine to provide local weather modification.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: M15-4897
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 100
    Publication Date: 2019-07-12
    Description: No abstract available
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: MSFC-E-DAA-TN21911
    Format: application/pdf
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