ALBERT

Description: Many detection and attribution and pattern scaling studies assume that the global climate response to multiple forcings is additive: that the response over the historical period is statistically indistinguishable from the sum of the responses to individual forcings. Here, we use the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model (CCSM) simulations from the CMIP5 archive to test this assumption for multi-year trends in global-average, annual-average temperature and precipitation at multiple timescales. We find that responses in models forced by pre-computed aerosol and ozone concentrations are generally additive across forcings; however, we demonstrate that there are significant nonlinearities in precipitation responses to dierent forcings in a configuration of the GISS model that interactively computes these concentrations from precursor emissions. We attribute these to dierences in ozone forcing arising from interactions between forcing agents. Our results suggest that attribution to specific forcings may be complicated in a model with fully interactive chemistry and may provide motivation for other modeling groups to conduct further single-forcing experiments.

Description: DSG will be placed in halo orbit around themoon- Platform for international/commercialpartners to explore lunar surface- Testbed for technologies needed toexplore Mars Habitat module used to house up to 4crew members aboard the DSG- Launched on EM-3- Placed inside SLS fairing Habitat Module - Task Habitat Finite Element Model Re-modeled entire structure in NX2) Used Beam and Shell elements torepresent the pressure vessel structure3) Created a point cloud of centers of massfor mass components- Can now inspect local moments andinertias for thrust ring application8/ Habitat Structure Docking Analysis Problem: Artificial Gravity may be necessary forastronaut health in deep spaceGoal: develop concepts that show how artificialgravity might be incorporated into a spacecraft inthe near term Orion Window Radiant Heat Testing.

Description: No abstract available

Description: Spacecraft modularity has been a topic of interest at NASA since the 1970s, when the Multi-Mission Modular Spacecraft (MMS) was developed at the Goddard Space Flight Center. Since then, modular concepts have been employed for a variety of spacecraft and, as in the case of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) and the International Space Station (ISS), have been critical to the success of on-orbit servicing. Modularity is even more important for future robotic servicing. Robotic satellite servicing technologies under development by NASA can extend mission life and reduce life-cycle cost and risk. These are optimized when the target spacecraft is designed for servicing, including advanced modularity. This paper will explore how spacecraft design, as demonstrated by the Reconfigurable Operational spacecraft for Science and Exploration (ROSE) spacecraft architecture, and servicing technologies can be developed in parallel to fully take advantage of the promise of both.

Description: Spacecraft modularity has been a topic of interest at NASA since the 1970s, when the Multi-Mission Modular Spacecraft (MMS) was developed at the Goddard Space Flight Center. Since then, modular concepts have been employed for a variety of spacecraft and, as in the case of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) and the International Space Station (ISS), have been critical to the success of on- orbit servicing. Modularity is even more important for future robotic servicing. Robotic satellite servicing technologies under development by NASA can extend mission life and reduce lifecycle cost and risk. These are optimized when the target spacecraft is designed for servicing, including advanced modularity. This paper will explore how spacecraft design, as demonstrated by the Reconfigurable Operational spacecraft for Science and Exploration (ROSE) spacecraft architecture, and servicing technologies can be developed in parallel to fully take advantage of the promise of both.

Description: This article reports on the accuracy in aerosol- and cloud-free conditions of the radiation parameterizations used in climate models. Accuracy is assessed relative to observationally validated reference models for fluxes under present-day conditions and forcing (flux changes) from quadrupled concentrations of carbon dioxide. Agreement among reference models is typically within 1 W/m2, while parameterized calculations are roughly half as accurate in the longwave and even less accurate, and more variable, in the shortwave. Absorption of shortwave radiation is underestimated by most parameterizations in the present day and has relatively large errors in forcing. Error in present-day conditions is essentially unrelated to error in forcing calculations. Recent revisions to parameterizations have reduced error in most cases. A dependence on atmospheric conditions, including integrated water vapor, means that global estimates of parameterization error relevant for the radiative forcing of climate change will require much more ambitious calculations.

Description: The spatial distribution of relative humidity with respect to ice (RHI) in the boreal wintertime tropical tropopause layer (TTL, 1418 km) over the Pacific is examined with the measurements provided by the NASA Airborne Tropical TRopopause EXperiment. We also compare the measured RHI distributions with results from a transport and microphysical model driven by meteorological analysis fields. Notable features in the distribution of RHI versus temperature and longitude include (1) the common occurrence of RHI values near ice saturation over the western Pacific in the lower to middle TTL; (2) low RHI values in the lower TTL over the central and eastern Pacific; (3) common occurrence of RHI values following a constant mixing ratio in the middle to upper TTL (temperatures between 190 and 200 K); (4) RHI values typically near ice saturation in the coldest airmasses sampled; and (5) RHI values typically near 100% across the TTL temperature range in air parcels with ozone mixing ratios less than 50 ppbv. We suggest that the typically saturated air in the lower TTL over the western Pacific is likely driven by a combination of the frequent occurrence of deep convection and the predominance of rising motion in this region. The nearly constant water vapor mixing ratios in the middle to upper TTL likely result from the combination of slow ascent (resulting in long residence times) and wavedriven temperature variability. The numerical simulations generally reproduce the observed RHI distribution features, and sensitivity tests further emphasize the strong influence of convective input and vertical motions on TTL relative humidity.

Description: Since Chaneys report, the range of global warming projections in response to a doubling of CO2from 1.5 C to 4.5 C or greaterremains largely unscathed by the onslaught of new scientific insights. Conventional thinking regards inter-model differences in climate feedbacks as the sole cause of the warming projection spread (WPS). Our findings shed new light on this issue indicating that climate feedbacks inherit diversity from the model control climate, besides the models intrinsic climate feedback diversity that is independent of the control climate state. Regulated by the control climate ice coverage, models with greater (lesser) ice coverage generally possess a colder (warmer) and drier (moister) climate, exhibit a stronger (weaker) ice-albedo feedback, and experience greater (weaker) warming. The water vapor feedback also inherits diversity from the control climate but in an opposite way: a colder (warmer) climate generally possesses a weaker (stronger) water vapor feedback, yielding a weaker (stronger) warming. These inherited traits influence the warming response in opposing manners, resulting in a weaker correlation between the WPS and control climate diversity. Our study indicates that a better understanding of the diversity amongst climate model mean states may help to narrow down the range of global warming projections.

Description: Detecting climate trends of atmospheric temperature, moisture, cloud, and surface temperature requires accurately calibrated satellite instruments such as the Climate Absolute Radiance and Reflectivity Observatory (CLARREO). Wielicki et al. have studied the CLARREO measurement requirements for achieving climate change accuracy goals in orbit. Our study further quantifies the spectrally dependent IR instrument calibration requirement for detecting trends of atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles. The temperature, water vapor, and surface skin temperature variability and the associated correlation time are derived using Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) and European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis data. The results are further validated using climate model simulation results. With the derived natural variability as the reference, the calibration requirement is established by carrying out a simulation study for CLARREO observations of various atmospheric states under all-sky. We derive a 0.04 K (k=2, or 95% confidence) radiometric calibration requirement baseline using a spectral fingerprinting method. We also demonstrate that the requirement is spectrally dependent and some spectral regions can be relaxed due to the hyperspectral nature of the CLARREO instrument. We further discuss relaxing the requirement to 0.06 K (k=2) based on the uncertainties associated with the temperature and water vapor natural variability and relatively small delay in time-to-detect for trends relative to the baseline case. The methodology used in this study can be extended to other parameters (such as clouds and CO2) and other instrument configurations.

Description: No abstract available

Description: Natural cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning and the charge structure of the associated clouds behave differently over land and ocean. Existing literature has raised questions over the years on the behavior of thunderstorms and lightning over oceans, and there are still open scientific questions. We expand on the observational datasets by obtaining identical electric field observations over coastal land, near-shore, and deep ocean regions during both clear air and thunderstorm periods. Oceanic observations were obtained using two 3-meter NOAA buoys that were instrumented with Campbell Scientific electric field mills to measure the static electric fields. These data were compared to selected electric field records from the existing on-shore electric field mill suite of 31 sensors at Kennedy Space Center (KSC). CG lightning occurrence times, locations and peak current values for both on-shore and ocean were provided by the U.S. National Lightning Detection Network. The buoy instruments were first evaluated on-shore at the Florida coast, to calibrate field enhancements and to confirm proper behavior of the system in elevated-field environments. The buoys were then moored 20NM and 120NM off the coast of KSC in February (20NM) and August (120NM) 2014. Statistically larger CG peak currents were reported over the deep ocean for first strokes and for subsequent strokes with new contacts points. Storm-related static fields were significantly larger at both oceanic sites, likely due to decreased screening by nearby space charge. Time-evolution of the static field during storm development and propagation indicated weak or missing lower positive charge regions in most storms that initiated over the deep ocean, supporting one mechanism for the observed high peak currents in negative first strokes over the deep ocean. This project also demonstrated the practicality of off-shore electric field measurements for safety-related decision making at KSC.

Description: Five-year simulation experiments with a multi-scale modeling Framework (MMF) with a advanced intermediately prognostic higher-order turbulence closure (IPHOC) in its cloud resolving model (CRM) component, also known as SPCAM-IPHOC (super parameterized Community Atmospheric Model), are performed to understand the fast tropical (30S-30N) cloud response to an instantaneous doubling of CO2 concentration with SST held fixed at present-day values. SPCAM-IPHOC has substantially improved the low-level representation compared with SPCAM. It is expected that the cloud responses to greenhouse warming in SPCAM-IPHOC is more realistic. The change of rising motion, surface precipitation, cloud cover, and shortwave and longwave cloud radiative forcing in SPCAM-IPHOC from the greenhouse warming will be presented in the presentation.

Description: Most recent assessments of long-term changes in the vertical distribution of ozone (by e.g. WMO and SI2N) rely on data sets that integrate observations by multiple instruments. Several merged satellite ozone profile records have been developed over the past few years; each considers a particular set of instruments and adopts a particular merging strategy. Their intercomparison by Tummon et al. revealed that the current merging schemes are not sufficiently refined to correct for all major differences between the limb/occultation records. This shortcoming introduces uncertainties that need to be known to obtain a sound interpretation of the different satellite-based trend studies. In practice however, producing realistic uncertainty estimates is an intricate task which depends on a sufficiently detailed understanding of the characteristics of each contributing data record and on the subsequent interplay and propagation of these through the merging scheme. Our presentation discusses these challenges in the context of limb/occultation ozone profile records, but they are equally relevant for other instruments and atmospheric measurements. We start by showing how the NDACC and GAW-affiliated ground-based networks of ozonesonde and lidar instruments allowed us to characterize fourteen limb/occultation ozone profile records, together providing a global view over the last three decades. Our prime focus will be on techniques to estimate long-term drift since our results suggest this is the main driver of the major trend differences between the merged data sets. The single-instrument drift estimates are then used for a tentative estimate of the systematic uncertainty in the profile trends from merged data records. We conclude by reflecting on possible further steps needed to improve the merging algorithms and to obtain a better characterization of the uncertainties involved.

Description: Atmospheric sources of Carbon Tetrachloride (CTC) have been controversial since its detection in the early 1970. Initial proposals were that it is globally uniformly distributed and its lack of current emissions and inferred lifetime indicated that it was likely of natural origin. Historical analysis of CTC use and emissions showed that atmospheric CTC was long-lived and mainly of man-made origin although small natural sources and sinks (e. g. oceans) could not be ruled out. This deduction was hard because a majority of emissions had occurred in early part of the 20th century when CTC was commonly used as a fumigant, a solvent, and a raw material for the manufacture of many chemicals. In the 1940's adverse health effects of exposure to CTC became evident and its emissions were greatly curtailed and substituted with C2Cl4 which was thought to be much safer. There were smog chamber studies that showed that C2Cl4, a widely used solvent during the late 20th century, could produce CTC with up to a 7% yield. Subsequently it was discovered that this chemistry probably required Cl atoms and since Cl atoms were not abundant in the atmosphere actual yields based on OH oxidation were probably closer to 0.1%. CTC was subsequently banned by the Montreal Protocol to prevent stratospheric ozone depletion and its preferred substitute C2Cl4 was also banned by EPA for reasons of potential carcinogenicity and toxicity. CTC since has been measured in many airborne NASA campaigns in which plumes have been sampled from a variety of regions which may still be emitting CTC. I will briefly discuss this historical perspective of CTC and show some recent data that may shed light on its current sources or lack there off.

Description: Existing DoD and NASA satellite breakup models are based on a key laboratory-based test, Satellite Orbital debris Characterization Impact Test (SOCIT), which has supported many applications and matched on-orbit events involving older satellite designs reasonably well over the years. In order to update and improve the break-up models and the NASA Size Estimation Model (SEM) for events involving more modern satellite designs, the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office has worked in collaboration with the University of Florida to replicate a hypervelocity impact using a satellite built with modern-day spacecraft materials and construction techniques. The spacecraft, called DebriSat, was intended to be a representative of modern LEO satellites and all major designs decisions were reviewed and approved by subject matter experts at Aerospace Corporation. DebriSat is composed of 7 major subsystems including attitude determination and control system (ADCS), command and data handling (C&DH), electrical power system (EPS), payload, propulsion, telemetry tracking and command (TT&C), and thermal management. To reduce cost, most components are emulated based on existing design of flight hardware and fabricated with the same materials. All fragments down to 2 mm is size will be characterized via material, size, shape, bulk density, and the associated data will be stored in a database for multiple users to access. Laboratory radar and optical measurements will be performed on a subset of fragments to provide a better understanding of the data products from orbital debris acquired from ground-based radars and telescopes. The resulting data analysis from DebriSat will be used to update break-up models and develop the first optical SEM in conjunction with updates into the current NASA SEM. The characterization of the fragmentation will be discussed in the subsequent presentation.

Description: The Exploration Flight Test 1 (EFT-1) was the first flight of the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV). The flight was launched on December 5, 2014, by a Delta IV Heavy rocket and lasted 4.5 hours. The EFT-1 trajectory involved one low altitude orbit and one high altitude orbit with an apogee of almost 6000 km. As a result of this particular flight profile, the Orion MPCV passed through intense regions of trapped protons and electron belts. In support of the radiation measurements aboard the EFT-1, the Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG) provided a Battery-operated Independent Radiation Detector (BIRD) based on Timepix radiation monitoring technology similar to that employed by the ISS Radiation Environmental Monitors (REM). In addition, SRAG provided a suite of optically and thermally stimulated luminescence detectors, with 2 Radiation Area Monitor (RAM) units collocated with the BIRD instrument for comparison purposes, and 6 RAM units distributed at different shielding configurations within the Orion MPCV. A summary of the EFT-1 Radiation Area Monitors (RAM) mission dose results obtained from measurements performed in the Space Radiation Dosimetry Laboratory at the NASA Johnson Space Center will be presented. Each RAM included LiF:Mg,Ti (TLD-100), (6)LiF:Mg,Ti (TLD-600), (7)LiF:Mg,Ti (TLD-700), Al2O3:C (Luxel trademark), and CaF2:Tm (TLD-300). The RAM mission dose values will be compared with the BIRD instrument total mission dose. In addition, a similar comparison will be shown for the ISS environment by comparing the ISS RAM data with data from the six Timepix-based REM units deployed on ISS as part of the NASA REM Technology Demonstration.

Description: Evaluating spacecraft charging behavior of a vehicle in the space environment requires knowledge of the material properties relevant to the charging process. Implementing surface and internal charging models requires a user to specify a number of material electrical properties including electrical resistivity parameters (dark and radiation induced), dielectric constant, secondary electron yields, photoemission yields, and breakdown strength in order to correctly evaluate the electric discharge threat posed by the increasing electric fields generated by the accumulating charge density. In addition, bulk material mass density and/or chemical composition must be known in order to analyze radiation shielding properties when evaluating internal charging. We will first describe the physics of spacecraft charging and show how uncertainties in material properties propagate through spacecraft charging algorithms to impact the results obtained from charging models. We then provide examples using spacecraft charging codes to demonstrate their sensitivity to material properties. The goal of this presentation is to emphasize the importance in having good information on relevant material properties in order to best characterize on orbit charging threats.

Description: Dengue fever (DF) is caused by a virus transmitted between humans and Aedes genus mosquitoes through blood feeding. In recent decades incidence of the disease has drastically increased in the tropical Americas, culminating with the Pan American outbreak in 2010 which resulted in 1.7 million reported cases. In Puerto Rico dengue is endemic, however, there is significant interannual, intraannual, and spatial variability in case loads. Variability in climate and the environment, herd immunity and virus genetics, and demographic characteristics may all contribute to differing patterns of transmission both spatially and temporally. Knowledge of climate influences on dengue incidence could facilitate development of early warning systems allowing public health workers to implement appropriate transmission intervention strategies. In this study, we simulate dengue incidence in several municipalities in Puerto Rico using population and meteorological data derived from ground based stations and remote sensing instruments. This data was used to drive a process based model of vector population development and virus transmission. Model parameter values for container composition, vector characteristics, and incubation period were chosen by employing a Monte Carlo approach. Multiple simulations were performed for each municipality and the results were compared with reported dengue cases. The best performing simulations were retained and their parameter values and meteorological input were compared between years and municipalities. Parameter values varied by municipality and year illustrating the complexity and sensitivity of the disease system. Local characteristics including the natural and built environment impact transmission dynamics and produce varying responses to meteorological conditions.

Description: Past research on pyrocumulus electrification has demonstrated that a variety of lightning types can occur, including cloudtoground (CG) flashes, sometimes of dominant positive polarity, as well as small intracloud (IC) discharges in the upper levels of the pyrocloud. In Colorado during summer 2012, the first combined polarimetric radar, multiDoppler radar, and threedimensional lightning mapping array (LMA) observations of lightningproducing pyrocumulus were obtained. These observations suggested that the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) was not sensitive enough to detect the small IC flashes that appear to be the dominant mode of lightning in these clouds. However, after an upgrade to the network in late 2012, the NLDN began detecting some of this pyrocumulus lightning. Multiple pyrocumulus clouds documented by the University of Wisconsin for various fires in 2013 and 2014 (including over the Rim, West Fork Complex, Yarnell Hill, Hardluck, and several other incidents) are examined and reported on here. This study exploits the increasedsensitivity NLDN as well as the new nationwide U.S. network of polarimetric Nextgeneration Radars (NEXRADs). These observations document the common occurrence of a polarimetric "dirty ice" signature modest reflectivities (2040+ dBZ), nearzero differential reflectivity, and reduced correlation coefficient (less than 0.9) prior to the production of lightning. This signature is indicative of a mixture of ash and ice particles in the upper levels of the pyrocloud (less than 20 C), with the ice interpreted as being necessary for pyrocloud electrification. PseudoGeostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) data will be produced from the 2012 LMA observations, and the ability of GLM to detect small pyrocumulus ICs will be assessed. The utility of lightning and polarimetric radar for documenting rapid wildfire growth, as well as for documenting pyrocumulus impacts on the composition of the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS), will be discussed.

Description: Distributed Spacecraft Missions (DSMs) are gaining momentum in their application to Earth Observation (EO) missions owing to their unique ability to increase observation sampling in spatial, spectral, angular and temporal dimensions simultaneously. DSM design includes a much larger number of variables than its monolithic counterpart, therefore, Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) has been often used for preliminary mission concept designs, to understand the trade-offs and interdependencies among the variables. MBSE models are complex because the various objectives a DSM is expected to achieve are almost always conflicting, non-linear and rarely analytical. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) is developing a pre-Phase A tool called Tradespace Analysis Tool for Constellations (TAT-C) to initiate constellation mission design. The tool will allow users to explore the tradespace between various performance, cost and risk metrics (as a function of their science mission) and select Pareto optimal architectures that meet their requirements. This paper will describe the different types of constellations that TAT-Cs Tradespace Search Iterator is capable of enumerating (homogeneous Walker, heterogeneous Walker, precessing type, ad-hoc) and their impact on key performance metrics such as revisit statistics, time to global access and coverage. We will also discuss the ability to simulate phased deployment of the given constellations, as a function of launch availabilities and/or vehicle capability, and show the impact on performance. All performance metrics are calculated by the Data Reduction and Metric Computation module within TAT-C, which issues specific requests and processes results from the Orbit and Coverage module. Our TSI is also capable of generating tradespaces for downlinking imaging data from the constellation, based on permutations of available ground station networks - known (default) or customized (by the user). We will show the impact of changing ground station options for any given constellation, on data latency and required communication bandwidth, which in turn determines the responsiveness of the space system.

Description: No abstract available

Description: No abstract available

Description: To replicate a hyper-velocity fragmentation event using modern-day spacecraft materials and construction techniques to better improve the existing DoD and NASA breakup models: DebriSat is intended to be representative of modern LEO satellites. Major design decisions were reviewed and approved by Aerospace subject matter experts from different disciplines. DebriSat includes 7 major subsystems. Attitude determination and control system (ADCS), command and data handling (C&DH), electrical power system (EPS), payload, propulsion, telemetry tracking and command (TT&C), and thermal management. To reduce cost, most components are emulated based on existing design of flight hardware and fabricated with the same materials. center dotA key laboratory-based test, Satellite Orbital debris Characterization Impact Test (SOCIT), supporting the development of the DoD and NASA satellite breakup models was conducted at AEDC in 1992. Breakup models based on SOCIT have supported many applications and matched on-orbit events reasonably well over the years.

Description: In previous studies published in the open literature, a strong relationship between the occurrence of hail and the microwave brightness temperatures (primarily at 37 and 85 GHz) was documented. These studies were performed with the Nimbus7 SMMR, the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and most recently, the Aqua AMSRE sensor. This lead to climatologies of hail frequency from TMI and AMSRE, however, limitations include geographical domain of the TMI sensor (35 S to 35 N) and the overpass time of the Aqua satellite (130 am/pm local time), both of which reduce an accurate mapping of hail events over the global domain and the full diurnal cycle. Nonetheless, these studies presented exciting, new applications for passive microwave sensors. Since 1998, NOAA and EUMETSAT have been operating the AMSUA/B and the MHS on several operational satellites: NOAA15 through NOAA19; MetOpA and B. With multiple satellites in operation since 2000, the AMSU/MHS sensors provide near global coverage every 4 hours, thus, offering a much larger time and temporal sampling than TRMM or AMSRE. With similar observation frequencies near 30 and 85 GHz and additionally three at the 183 GHz water vapor band, the potential to detect strong convection associated with severe storms on a more comprehensive time and space scale exists. In this study, we develop a prototype AMSUbased hail detection algorithm through the use of collocated satellite and surface hail reports over the continental U.S. for a 12year period (20002011). Compared with the surface observations, the algorithm detects approximately 40 percent of hail occurrences. The simple threshold algorithm is then used to generate a hail climatology that is based on all available AMSU observations during 200011 that is stratified in several ways, including total hail occurrence by month (March through September), total annual, and over the diurnal cycle. Independent comparisons are made compared to similar data sets derived from other satellite, ground radar and surface reports. The algorithm was also applied to global land measurements for a single year and showed close agreement with other satellite based hail climatologies. Such a product could serve as a prototype for use with a future geostationary based microwave sensor such as NASA's proposed PATH mission.

Description: NASA's manned spaceflight programs have a rich history of advancing onboard guidance and targeting technology. In order to support future missions, the guidance and targeting architecture for the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle must be able to operate in complete autonomy, without any support from the ground. Orion's guidance and targeting system must be sufficiently flexible to easily adapt to a wide array of undecided future missions, yet also not cause an undue computational burden on the flight computer. This presents a unique design challenge from the perspective of both algorithm development and system architecture construction. The present work shows how Orion's guidance and targeting system addresses these challenges. On the algorithm side, the system advances the state-of-the-art by: (1) steering burns with a simple closed-loop guidance strategy based on Shuttle heritage, and (2) planning maneuvers with a cutting-edge two-level targeting routine. These algorithms are then placed into an architecture designed to leverage the advantages of each and ensure that they function in concert with one another. The resulting system is characterized by modularity and simplicity. As such, it is adaptable to the on-orbit phases of any future mission that Orion may attempt.

Description: The International Docking Adapter's Peripheral Docking Target (PDT) was designed to allow a docking spacecraft to judge its alignment relative to the docking system. The PDT was designed to be compatible with relative sensors using visible cameras, thermal imagers, or Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) technologies. The conceptual design team tested prototype designs and materials to determine the contrast requirements for the features. This paper will discuss the design of the PDT, the methodology and results of the tests, and the conclusions pertaining to PDT design that were drawn from testing.

Description: The dual-wall, Whipple shield is the shield of choice for lightweight, long-duration flight. The shield uses an initial sacrificial wall to initiate fragmentation and melt an impacting threat that expands over a void before hitting a subsequent shield wall of a critical component. The key parameters to this type of shield are the rear wall and its mass which stops the debris, as well as the minimum shock wave strength generated by the threat particle impact of the sacrificial wall and the amount of room that is available for expansion. Ensuring the shock wave strength is sufficiently high to achieve large scale fragmentation/melt of the threat particle enables the expansion of the threat and reduces the momentum flux of the debris on the rear wall. Three key factors in the shock wave strength achieved are the thickness of the sacrificial wall relative to the characteristic dimension of the impacting particle, the density and material cohesion contrast of the sacrificial wall relative to the threat particle and the impact speed. The mass of the rear wall and the sacrificial wall are desirable to minimize for launch costs making it important to have an understanding of the effects of density contrast and impact speed. An analytic model is developed here, to describe the influence of these three key factors. In addition this paper develops a description of a fourth key parameter related to fragmentation and its role in establishing the onset of projectile expansion.

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Description: Cloud computing capabilities have rapidly expanded within the private sector, offering new opportunities for meteorological applications. Collaborations between NASA Marshall, NASA Ames, and contractor partners led to evaluations of private (NASA) and public (Amazon) resources for executing short-term NWP systems. Activities helped the Marshall team further understand cloud capabilities, and benchmark use of cloud resources for NWP and other applications

Description: No abstract available

Description: No abstract available

Description: Data from multiple sources is needed to investigate lightning characteristics over differing terrain (on-shore vs. off-shore) by comparing natural cloud-to-ground lightning behavior differences depending on the characteristics of attachment mediums. The KSC Lightning Research Database (KLRD) was created to reduce manual data entry time and aid research by combining information from various data sources into a single record for each unique lightning event of interest. The KLRD uses automatic data handling functions to import data from a lightning detection network and identify and record lighting events of interest. Additional automatic functions import data from the NASA Buoy 41009 (located approximately 20 miles off the coast) and the KSC Electric Field Mill network, then match these electric field mill values to the corresponding lightning events. The KLRD calculates distances between each lightning event and the various electric field mills, aids in identifying the location type for each stroke (i.e., on-shore vs. off-shore, etc.), provides statistics on the number of strokes per flash, and produces customizable reports for quick retrieval and logical display of data. Data from February 2014 to date covers 48 unique storm dates with 2295 flashes containing 5700 strokes, of which 2612 are off-shore and 1003 are on-shore. The number of strokes per flash ranges from 1 to 22. The ratio of single to subsequent stroke flashes is 1.29 for off-shore strokes and 2.19 for on-shore strokes.

Description: The optimization of low-thrust trajectories is tightly coupled with the spacecraft hardware. Trading trajectory characteristics with system parameters ton identify viable solutions and determine mission sensitivities across discrete hardware configurations is labor intensive. Local independent optimization runs can sample the design space, but a global exploration that resolves the relationships between the system variables across multiple objectives enables a full mapping of the optimal solution space. A multi-objective, hybrid optimal control algorithm is formulated using a multi-objective genetic algorithm as an outer loop systems optimizer around a global trajectory optimizer. The coupled problem is solved simultaneously to generate Pareto-optimal solutions in a single execution. The automated approach is demonstrated on two boulder return missions.

Description: Fifteen years of visible, near-infrared, and broadband shortwave radiance measurements from Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES), Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR), and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments on board NASA's Terra satellite are analyzed in order to assess their long-term relative stability for climate purposes. A regression-based approach between CERES, MODIS, and MISR (An camera only) reflectances is used to calculate the bias between the different reflectances relative to a reference year. When compared to the CERES shortwave broadband reflectance, relative drift between the MISR narrowbands is within 1%/decade. Compared to the CERES shortwave reflectance, the MODIS narrowband reflectances show a relative drift of less than 1.33%/decade. When compared to MISR, the MODIS reflectances show a relative drift of between 0.36%/decade and 2.66%/decade. We show that the CERES Terra SW measurements are stable over the time period relative to CERES Aqua. Using this as evidence that CERES Terra may be absolutely stable, we suggest that the CERES, MISR, and MODIS instruments meet the radiometric stability goals for climate applications set out in Ohring et al. (2005).

Description: Recent changes in the climate system have led to growing concern, especially in communities which are highly vulnerable to resource shortages and weather extremes. There is an urgent need for better climate information to develop solutions and strategies for adapting to a changing climate. Climate models provide excellent tools for studying the current state of climate and making future projections. However, these models are subject to biases created by structural uncertainties. Performance metrics-or the systematic determination of model biases-succinctly quantify aspects of climate model behavior. Efforts to standardize climate model experiments and collect simulation data-such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)-provide the means to directly compare and assess model performance. Performance metrics have been used to show that some models reproduce present-day climate better than others. Simulation data from multiple models are often used to add value to projections by creating a consensus projection from the model ensemble, in which each model is given an equal weight. It has been shown that the ensemble mean generally outperforms any single model. It is possible to use unequal weights to produce ensemble means, in which models are weighted based on performance (called "intelligent" ensembles). Can performance metrics be used to improve climate projections? Previous work introduced a framework for comparing the utility of model performance metrics, showing that the best metrics are related to the variance of top-of-atmosphere outgoing longwave radiation. These metrics improve present-day climate simulations of Earth's energy budget using the "intelligent" ensemble method. The current project identifies several approaches for testing whether performance metrics can be applied to future simulations to create "intelligent" ensemble-mean climate projections. It is shown that certain performance metrics test key climate processes in the models, and that these metrics can be used to evaluate model quality in both current and future climate states. This information will be used to produce new consensus projections and provide communities with improved climate projections for urgent decision-making.

Description: Polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) play a crucial role in the springtime chemical depletion of ozone at high latitudes. PSC particles (primarily supercooled ternary solution, or STS droplets) provide sites for heterogeneous chemical reactions that transform stable chlorine and bromine reservoir species into highly reactive ozone-destructive forms. Furthermore, large nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) PSC particles can irreversibly redistribute odd nitrogen through gravitational sedimentation (a process commonly known as denitrification), which prolongs the ozone depletion process by slowing the reformation of the stable chlorine reservoirs. Spaceborne observations from the CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) lidar on the CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations) satellite are providing a rich new dataset for studying PSCs. CALIPSO is an excellent platform for studying polar processes with CALIOP acquiring, on average, over 300,000 backscatter profiles daily at latitudes between 55o and 82o in both hemispheres. PSCs are detected in the CALIOP backscatter profiles using a successive horizontal averaging scheme that enables detection of strongly scattering PSCs (e.g., ice) at the finest possible spatial resolution (5 km), while enhancing the detection of very tenuous PSCs (e.g., low number density NAT) at larger spatial scales (up to 135 km). CALIOP PSCs are separated into composition classes (STS; liquid/NAT mixtures; and ice) based on the ensemble 532-nm scattering ratio (the ratio of total-to-molecular backscatter) and 532-nm particulate depolarization ratio (which is sensitive to the presence of non-spherical, i.e. NAT and ice particles). In this paper, we will provide an overview of the CALIOP PSC detection and composition classification algorithm and then examine the vertical and spatial distribution of PSCs in the Arctic and Antarctic on vortex-wide scales for entire PSC seasons over the more than nine-year data record from 2006- 2015.

Description: The time scales that characterize the variations of vegetation phenology are generally much longer than those that characterize atmospheric processes. The explicit modeling of phenological processes in an atmospheric forecast system thus has the potential to provide skill to subseasonal or seasonal forecasts. We examine this possibility here using a forecast system fitted with a dynamic vegetation phenology model. We perform three experiments, each consisting of 128 independent warm-season monthly forecasts: 1) an experiment in which both soil moisture states and carbon states (e.g., those determining leaf area index) are initialized realistically, 2) an experiment in which the carbon states are prescribed to climatology throughout the forecasts, and 3) an experiment in which both the carbon and soil moisture states are prescribed to climatology throughout the forecasts. Evaluating the monthly forecasts of air temperature in each ensemble against observations, as well as quantifying the inherent predictability of temperature within each ensemble, shows that dynamic phenology can indeed contribute positively to subseasonal forecasts, though only to a small extent, with an impact dwarfed by that of soil moisture.

Description: Cirrus clouds play a key role in the radiative and hydrological balance of the upper troposphere. Their correct representation in atmospheric models requires an understanding of the microscopic processes leading to ice nucleation. A key parameter in the theoretical description of ice nucleation is the activation energy, which controls the flux of water molecules from the bulk of the liquid to the solid during the early stages of ice formation. In most studies it is estimated by direct association with the bulk properties of water, typically viscosity and self-diffusivity. As the environment in the ice-liquid interface may differ from that of the bulk, this approach may introduce bias in calculated nucleation rates. In this work a theoretical model is proposed to describe the transfer of water molecules across the ice-liquid interface. Within this framework the activation energy naturally emerges from the combination of the energy required to break hydrogen bonds in the liquid, i.e., the bulk diffusion process, and the work dissipated from the molecular rearrangement of water molecules within the ice-liquid interface. The new expression is introduced into a generalized form of classical nucleation theory. Even though no nucleation rate measurements are used to fit any of the parameters of the theory the predicted nucleation rate is in good agreement with experimental results, even at temperature as low as 190 K, where it tends to be underestimated by most models. It is shown that the activation energy has a strong dependency on temperature and a weak dependency on water activity. Such dependencies are masked by thermodynamic effects at temperatures typical of homogeneous freezing of cloud droplets; however, they may affect the formation of ice in haze aerosol particles. The new model provides an independent estimation of the activation energy and the homogeneous ice nucleation rate, and it may help to improve the interpretation of experimental results and the development of parameterizations for cloud formation.

Description: No abstract available

Description: Charts for discussion of LaRC work on inflatable reentry vehicles, and sensors sought for future flights.

Description: Cloud properties play a critical role in climate change. Monitoring cloud properties over long time periods is needed to detect changes and to validate and constrain models. The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project has developed several cloud datasets from Aqua and Terra MODIS data to better interpret broadband radiation measurements and improve understanding of the role of clouds in the radiation budget. The algorithms applied to MODIS data have been adapted to utilize various combinations of channels on the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on the long-term time series of NOAA and MetOp satellites to provide a new cloud climate data record. These datasets can be useful for a variety of studies. This paper presents results of the MODIS and AVHRR analyses covering the period from 1980-2014. Validation and comparisons with other datasets are also given.

Description: New results for the development of the PCRTM model will be presented. The new results were used for IASI retrieval validation inter comparison and better results were obtained compare to other fast radiative transfer models.

Description: Significant atmospheric CO2 variations on various spatiotemporal scales were observed during ASCENDS flight campaigns. For example, around 10-ppm CO2 changes were found within free troposphere in a region of about 200x300 sq km over Iowa during a summer 2014 flight. Even over extended forests, about 2-ppm CO2 column variability was measured within about 500-km distance. For winter times, especially over snow covered ground, relatively less horizontal CO2 variability was observed, likely owing to minimal interactions between the atmosphere and land surface. Inter-annual variations of CO2 drawdown over cornfields in the Mid-West were found to be larger than 5 ppm due to slight differences in the corn growing phase and meteorological conditions even in the same time period of a year. Furthermore, considerable differences in atmospheric CO2 profiles were found during winter and summer campaigns. In the winter CO2 was found to decrease from about 400 ppm in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) to about 392 ppm above 10 km, while in the summer CO2 increased from 386 ppm in the ABL to about 396 ppm in free troposphere. These and other CO2 observations are discussed in this presentation.

Description: No abstract available

Description: No abstract available

Description: The Rapid Response Radiation Survey (R3S) experiment, designed as a quick turnaround mission to make radiation measurements in LEO, will fly as a hosted payload in partnership with NovaWurks using their Hyper-integrated Satlet (HiSat) architecture. The need for the mission arises as the Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionization Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) model moves from a research effort into an operational radiation assessment tool. The data collected by R3S, in addition to the complementary data from a NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) atmospheric balloon mission entitled Radiation Dosimetry Experiment (RaDX), will validate exposure prediction capabilities of NAIRAS. This paper discusses the development of the R3S experiment as made possible by use of the HiSat architecture. The system design and operational modes of the experiment are described, as well as the experiment interfaces to the HiSat satellite via the user defined adapter (UDA) provided by NovaWurks. This paper outlines the steps taken by the project to execute the R3S mission in the 4 months of design, build, and test. Finally, description of the engineering process is provided, including the use of facilitated rapid/concurrent engineering sessions, the associated documentation, and the review process employed.

Description: Atmospheric CO2 is a critical forcing for the Earth's climate, and knowledge of its distribution and variations influences predictions of the Earth's future climate. Accurate observations of atmospheric CO2 are also crucial to improving our understanding of CO2 sources, sinks and transports. To meet these science needs, NASA is developing technologies for the Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights, Days, and Seasons (ASCENDS) space mission, which is aimed at global CO2 observations. Meanwhile an airborne investigation of atmospheric CO2 distributions as part of the NASA Suborbital Atmospheric Carbon and Transport " America (ACT-America) mission will be conducted with lidar and in situ instrumentation over the central and eastern United States during all four seasons and under a wide range of meteorological conditions. In preparing for the ASCENDS mission, NASA Langley Research Center and Exelis Inc./Harris Corp. have jointly developed and demonstrated the capability of atmospheric CO2 column measurements with an intensity-modulated continuous-wave (IM-CW) lidar. Since 2005, a total of 14 flight campaigns have been conducted. A measurement precision of approx.0.3 ppmv for a 10-s average over desert and vegetated surfaces has been achieved, and the lidar CO2 measurements also agree well with in-situ observations. Significant atmospheric CO2 variations on various spatiotemporal scales have been observed during these campaigns. For example, around 10-ppm CO2 changes were found within free troposphere in a region of about 200A-300 sq km over Iowa during a summer 2014 flight. Results from recent flight campaigns are presented in this paper. The ability to achieve the science objectives of the ASCENDS mission with an IM-CW lidar is also discussed in this paper, along with the plans for the ACT-America aircraft investigation that begins in the winter of 2016.

Description: Low-level clouds cover nearly half of the Earth and play a critical role in regulating the energy and hydrological cycle. Despite the fact that a great effort has been put to advance the modeling and observational capability in recent years, low-level clouds remains one of the largest uncertainties in the projection of future climate change. Low-level cloud feedbacks dominate the uncertainty in the total cloud feedback in climate sensitivity and projection studies. These clouds are notoriously difficult to simulate in climate models due to its complicated interactions with aerosols, cloud microphysics, boundary-layer turbulence and cloud dynamics. The biases in both low cloud coverage/water content and cloud radiative effects (CREs) remain large. A simultaneous reduction in both cloud and CRE biases remains elusive. This presentation first reviews the effort of implementing the higher-order turbulence closure (HOC) approach to representing subgrid-scale turbulence and low-level cloud processes in climate models. There are two HOCs that have been implemented in climate models. They differ in how many three-order moments are used. The CLUBB are implemented in both CAM5 and GDFL models, which are compared with IPHOC that is implemented in CAM5 by our group. IPHOC uses three third-order moments while CLUBB only uses one third-order moment while both use a joint double-Gaussian distribution to represent the subgrid-scale variability. Despite that HOC is more physically consistent and produces more realistic low-cloud geographic distributions and transitions between cumulus and stratocumulus regimes, GCMs with traditional cloud parameterizations outperform in CREs because tuning of this type of models is more extensively performed than those with HOCs. We perform several tuning experiments with CAM5 implemented with IPHOC in an attempt to produce the nearly balanced global radiative budgets without deteriorating the low-cloud simulation. One of the issues in CAM5-IPHOC is that cloud water content is much higher than in CAM5, which is combined with higher low-cloud coverage to produce larger shortwave CREs in some low-cloud prevailing regions. Thus, the cloud-radiative feedbacks are exaggerated there. The turning exercise is focused on microphysical parameters, which are also commonly used for tuning in climate models. The results will be discussed in this presentation.

Description: No abstract available

Description: No abstract available

Description: The response of clouds to global warming represents a major uncertainty in estimating climate sensitivity. These uncertainties have been tracked to shallow marine clouds in the tropics and subtropics. CALIOP observations have already been used extensively to evaluate model predictions of shallow cloud fraction and top height (Leahy et al. 2013; Nam et al 2012). Tools are needed to probe the lowest levels of the troposphere. The large footprint of satellite lidars gives large multiple scattering from clouds which presents new possibilities for cloud retrievals to constrain model predictions.

Description: Background: In the US, residential and commercial building infrastructure combined consumes about 40% of total energy usage and emits about 39% of total CO2 emission (DOE/EIA "Annual Energy Outlook 2013"). Building codes, as used by local and state enforcement entities are typically tied to the dominant climate within an enforcement jurisdiction classified according to various climate zones. These climate zones are based upon a 30-year average of local surface observations and are developed by DOE and ASHRAE. Establishing the current variability and potential changes to future building climate zones is very important for increasing the energy efficiency of buildings and reducing energy costs and emissions in the future. Objectives: This paper demonstrates the usefulness of using NASA's Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) atmospheric data assimilation to derive the DOE/ASHRAE building climate zone maps and then using MERRA to define the last 30 years of variability in climate zones for the Continental US. An atmospheric assimilation is a global atmospheric model optimized to satellite, atmospheric and surface in situ measurements. Using MERRA as a baseline, we then evaluate the latest Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) climate model Version 5 runs to assess potential variability in future climate zones under various assumptions. Methods: We derive DOE/ASHRAE building climate zones using surface and temperature data products from MERRA. We assess these zones using the uncertainties derived by comparison to surface measurements. Using statistical tests, we evaluate variability of the climate zones in time and assess areas in the continental US for statistically significant trends by region. CMIP 5 produced a data base of over two dozen detailed climate model runs under various greenhouse gas forcing assumptions. We evaluate the variation in building climate zones for 3 different decades using an ensemble and quartile statistics to provide an assessment of potential building climate zone changes relative to the uncertainties demonstrated using MERRA. Findings and Conclusions: These results show that there is a statistically significant increase in the area covered by warmer climate zones and a tendency for a reduction of area in colder climate zones in some limited regions. The CMIP analysis shows that models vary from relatively little building climate zone change for the least sensitive and conservation assumptions to a warming of at most 3 zones for certain areas, particularly the north central US by the end of the 21st century.

Description: This study evaluates the capability of atmospheric CO2 column measurements under cloudy conditions using an airborne intensity-modulated continuous-wave integrated-path-differential-absorption lidar operating in the 1.57-m CO2 absorption band. The atmospheric CO2 column amounts from the aircraft to the tops of optically thick cumulus clouds and to the surface in the presence of optically thin clouds are retrieved from lidar data obtained during the summer 2011 and spring 2013 flight campaigns, respectively.

Description: Atmospheric CO2 is a critical forcing for the Earth's climate and the knowledge on its distributions and variations influences predictions of the Earth's future climate. Large uncertainties in the predictions persist due to limited observations. This study uses the airborne Intensity-Modulated Continuous-Wave (IMCW) lidar developed at NASA Langley Research Center to measure regional atmospheric CO2 spatio-temporal variations. Further lidar development and demonstration will provide the capability of global atmospheric CO2 estimations from space, which will significantly advances our knowledge on atmospheric CO2 and reduce the uncertainties in the predictions of future climate. In this presentation, atmospheric CO2 column measurements from airborne flight campaigns and lidar system simulations for space missions will be discussed. A measurement precision of approx.0.3 ppmv for a 10-s average over desert and vegetated surfaces has been achieved. Data analysis also shows that airborne lidar CO2 column measurements over these surfaces agree well with in-situ measurements. Even when thin cirrus clouds present, consistent CO2 column measurements between clear and thin cirrus cloudy skies are obtained. Airborne flight campaigns have demonstrated that precise atmospheric column CO2 values can be measured from current IM-CW lidar systems, which will lead to use this airborne technique in monitoring CO2 sinks and sources in regional and continental scales as proposed by the NASA Atmospheric Carbon and Transport " America project. Furthermore, analyses of space CO2 measurements shows that applying the current IM-CW lidar technology and approach to space, the CO2 science goals of space missions will be achieved, and uncertainties in CO2 distributions and variations will be reduced.

Description: Atmospheric CO2 is the key radiative forcing for the Earth's climate and may contribute a major part of the Earth's warming during the past 150 years. Advanced knowledge on the CO2 distributions and changes can lead considerable model improvements in predictions of the Earth's future climate. Large uncertainties in the predictions have been found for decades owing to limited CO2 observations. To obtain precise measurements of atmospheric CO2, certain challenges have to be overcome. For an example, global annual means of the CO2 are rather stable, but, have a very small increasing trend that is significant for multi-decadal long-term climate. At short time scales (a second to a few hours), regional and subcontinental gradients in the CO2 concentration are very small and only in an order of a few parts per million (ppm) compared to the mean atmospheric CO2 concentration of about 400 ppm, which requires atmospheric CO2 space monitoring systems with extremely high accuracy and precision (about 0.5 ppm or 0.125%) in spatiotemporal scales around 75 km and 10-s. It also requires a decadal-scale system stability. Furthermore, rapid changes in high latitude environments such as melting ice, snow and frozen soil, persistent thin cirrus clouds in Amazon and other tropical areas, and harsh weather conditions over Southern Ocean all increase difficulties in satellite atmospheric CO2 observations. Space lidar approaches using Integrated Path Differential Absorption (IPDA) technique are considered to be capable of obtaining precise CO2 measurements and, thus, have been proposed by various studies including the 2007 Decadal Survey (DS) of the U.S. National Research Council. This study considers to use the Intensity-Modulated Continuous-Wave (IM-CW) lidar to monitor global atmospheric CO2 distribution and variability from space. Development and demonstration of space lidar for atmospheric CO2 measurements have been made through joint adventure of NASA Langley Research Center and Exelis, Inc. As prototype space IPDA lidars, airborne laser absorption lidar systems operating in 1.57 CO2 absorption band have been developed and tested through lab, ground-based range, and flight campaigns. Very encouraging results have been obtained. The signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) for clear sky IPDA measurements of CO2 differential absorption optical depth (DAOD) for a 10-s integration over vegetated areas with about 10 km range was found to be as high as 1300, resulting in an error 0.077% or equivalent CO2 mixing ratio (XCO2) column precision of ~0.3 ppm. Precise range measurements using the IM-CW lidar approach were also achieved, and the uncertainties have been shown to be at sub meter level. Based on the airborne lidar development, space lidar and atmospheric CO2 observations are simulated. It shows that with the IM-CW approach, accurate atmospheric CO2 measurements can be achieved from space, and a space mission such as that proposed by the DS will meet science goals of atmospheric CO2 monitoring.

Description: Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerator (HIAD) technology readiness levels have been incrementally matured by NASA over the last thirteen years, with most recent support from NASA's Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD) Game Changing Development Program (GCDP). Recently STMD GCDP has authorized funding and support through fiscal year 2015 (FY15) for continued HIAD ground developments which support a Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) study. The Mars study will assess the viability of various EDL architectures to enable a Mars human architecture pathfinder mission planned for mid-2020. At its conclusion in November 2014, NASA's first HIAD ground development effort had demonstrated success with fabricating a 50 W/cm2 modular thermal protection system, a 400 C capable inflatable structure, a 10-meter scale aeroshell manufacturing capability, together with calibrated thermal and structural models. Despite the unquestionable success of the first HIAD ground development effort, it was recognized that additional investment was needed in order to realize the full potential of the HIAD technology capability to enable future flight opportunities. The second HIAD ground development effort will focus on extending performance capability in key technology areas that include thermal protection system, lifting-body structures, inflation systems, flight control, stage transitions, and 15-meter aeroshell scalability. This paper presents an overview of the accomplishments under the baseline HIAD development effort and current plans for a follow-on development effort focused on extending those critical technologies needed to enable a Mars Pathfinder mission.

Description: The Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III (SAGE III) instrument is the fifth in a series of instruments developed for monitoring aerosols and gaseous constituents in the stratosphere and troposphere. SAGE III will be delivered to the International Space Station (ISS) via the SpaceX Dragon vehicle. A detailed thermal model of the SAGE III payload, which consists of multiple subsystems, has been developed in Thermal Desktop (TD). Many innovative analysis methods have been used in developing this model; these will be described in the paper. This paper builds on a paper presented at TFAWS 2013, which described some of the initial developments of efficient methods for SAGE III. The current paper describes additional improvements that have been made since that time. To expedite the correlation of the model to thermal vacuum (TVAC) testing, the chambers and GSE for both TVAC chambers at Langley used to test the payload were incorporated within the thermal model. This allowed the runs of TVAC predictions and correlations to be run within the flight model, thus eliminating the need for separate models for TVAC. In one TVAC test, radiant lamps were used which necessitated shooting rays from the lamps, and running in both solar and IR wavebands. A new Dragon model was incorporated which entailed a change in orientation; that change was made using an assembly, so that any potential additional new Dragon orbits could be added in the future without modification of the model. The Earth orbit parameters such as albedo and Earth infrared flux were incorporated as time-varying values that change over the course of the orbit; despite being required in one of the ISS documents, this had not been done before by any previous payload. All parameters such as initial temperature, heater voltage, and location of the payload are defined based on the case definition. For one component, testing was performed in both air and vacuum; incorporating the air convection in a submodel that was only built for the in-air cases allowed correlation of all testing to be done in a single model. These modeling improvements and more will be described and illustrated in the paper.

Description: The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects on tropical clouds and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) cloud radiative effects (CREs) in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase5 (CMIP5) models are evaluated using satellite-based observations and International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project satellite simulator output. Climatologically, most CMIP5 models produce considerably less total cloud amount with higher cloud top and notably larger reflectivity than observations in tropical Indo-Pacific (60 degrees East - 200 degrees East; 10 degrees South - 10 degrees North). During ENSO, most CMIP5 models considerably underestimate TOA CRE and cloud changes over western tropical Pacific. Over central tropical Pacific, while the multi-model mean resembles observations in TOA CRE and cloud amount anomalies, it notably overestimates cloud top pressure (CTP) decreases; there are also substantial inter-model variations. The relative effects of changes in cloud properties, temperature and humidity on TOA CRE anomalies during ENSO in the CMIP5 models are assessed using cloud radiative kernels. The CMIP5 models agree with observations in that their TOA shortwave CRE anomalies are primarily contributed by total cloud amount changes, and their TOA longwave CRE anomalies are mostly contributed by changes in both total cloud amount and CTP. The model biases in TOA CRE anomalies particularly the strong underestimations over western tropical Pacific are, however, mainly explained by model biases in CTP and cloud optical thickness (tau) changes. Despite the distinct model cloud biases particularly in tau regime, the TOA CRE anomalies from cloud amount changes are comparable between the CMIP5 models and observations, because of the strong compensations between model underestimation of TOA CRE anomalies from thin clouds and overestimation from medium and thick clouds.

Description: Chemical breakdown of rocks, weathering, is an important but very slow part of the carbon cycle that ultimately leads to CO2 being locked up in carbonates on the ocean floor. Artificial acceleration of this carbon sink via distribution of pulverized silicate rocks across terrestrial landscapes may help offset anthropogenic CO2 emissions. We show that idealized enhanced weathering scenarios over less than a third of tropical land could cause significant drawdown of atmospheric CO2 and ameliorate ocean acidification by 2100. Global carbon cycle modelling driven by ensemble Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) projections of twenty-first-century climate change (RCP8.5, business-as-usual; RCP4.5, medium-level mitigation) indicates that enhanced weathering could lower atmospheric CO2 by 30-300 ppm by 2100, depending mainly on silicate rock application rate (1 kg or 5 kg m(exp -2) yr (exp -1)) and composition. At the higher application rate, end-of-century ocean acidification is reversed under RCP4.5 and reduced by about two-thirds under RCP8.5. Additionally, surface ocean aragonite saturation state, a key control on coral calcification rates, is maintained above 3.5 throughout the low latitudes, thereby helping maintain the viability of tropical coral reef ecosystems. However, we highlight major issues of cost, social acceptability, and potential unanticipated consequences that will limit utilization and emphasize the need for urgent efforts to phase down fossil fuel emissions.

Description: No abstract available

Description: Mass estimating relationships (MERs) are developed to predict the amount of thermal protection system (TPS) necessary for safe Earth entry for blunt-body spacecraft using simple correlations that are non-ITAR and closely match estimates from NASA's highfidelity ablation modeling tool, the Fully Implicit Ablation and Thermal Analysis Program (FIAT). These MERs provide a first order estimate for rapid feasibility studies. There are 840 different trajectories considered in this study, and each TPS MER has a peak heating limit. MERs for the vehicle forebody include the ablators Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA) and Carbon Phenolic atop Advanced Carbon-Carbon. For the aftbody, the materials are Silicone Impregnated Reusable Ceramic Ablator (SIRCA), Acusil II, SLA- 561V, and LI-900. The MERs are accurate to within 14% (at one standard deviation) of FIAT prediction, and the most any MER can under predict FIAT TPS thickness is 18.7%. This work focuses on the development of these MERs, the resulting equations, model limitations, and model accuracy.

Description: The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) is a co-ordinated international climate modelling initiative to study and understand climate and environments of the Late Pliocene, and their potential relevance in the context of future climate change. PlioMIP operates under the umbrella of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP), which examines multiple intervals in Earth history, the consistency of model predictions in simulating these intervals and their ability to reproduce climate signals preserved in geological climate archives. This paper provides a thorough model intercomparison project description, and documents the experimental design in a detailed way. Specifically, this paper describes the experimental design and boundary conditions that will be utilized for the experiments in Phase 2 of PlioMIP.

Description: Climatically important low-level clouds are commonly misrepresented in climate models. The FAst-physics System TEstbed and Research (FASTER) Project has constructed case studies from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Climate Research Facility's Southern Great Plain site during the RACORO aircraft campaign to facilitate research on model representation of boundary-layer clouds. This paper focuses on using the single-column Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (SCAM5) simulations of a multi-day continental shallow cumulus case to identify specific parameterization causes of low-cloud biases. Consistent model biases among the simulations driven by a set of alternative forcings suggest that uncertainty in the forcing plays only a relatively minor role. In-depth analysis reveals that the model's shallow cumulus convection scheme tends to significantly under-produce clouds during the times when shallow cumuli exist in the observations, while the deep convective and stratiform cloud schemes significantly over-produce low-level clouds throughout the day. The links between model biases and the underlying assumptions of the shallow cumulus scheme are further diagnosed with the aid of large-eddy simulations and aircraft measurements, and by suppressing the triggering of the deep convection scheme. It is found that the weak boundary layer turbulence simulated is directly responsible for the weak cumulus activity and the simulated boundary layer stratiform clouds. Increased vertical and temporal resolutions are shown to lead to stronger boundary layer turbulence and reduction of low-cloud biases.

Description: Observation-based modeling case studies of continental boundary layer clouds have been developed to study cloudy boundary layers, aerosol influences upon them, and their representation in cloud- and global-scale models. Three 60 h case study periods span the temporal evolution of cumulus, stratiform, and drizzling boundary layer cloud systems, representing mixed and transitional states rather than idealized or canonical cases. Based on in situ measurements from the Routine AAF (Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Aerial Facility) CLOWD (Clouds with Low Optical Water Depth) Optical Radiative Observations (RACORO) field campaign and remote sensing observations, the cases are designed with a modular configuration to simplify use in large-eddy simulations (LES) and single-column models. Aircraft measurements of aerosol number size distribution are fit to lognormal functions for concise representation in models. Values of the aerosol hygroscopicity parameter, kappa, are derived from observations to be approximately 0.10, which are lower than the 0.3 typical over continents and suggestive of a large aerosol organic fraction. Ensemble large-scale forcing data sets are derived from the ARM variational analysis, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, and a multiscale data assimilation system. The forcings are assessed through comparison of measured bulk atmospheric and cloud properties to those computed in "trial" large-eddy simulations, where more efficient run times are enabled through modest reductions in grid resolution and domain size compared to the full-sized LES grid. Simulations capture many of the general features observed, but the state-of-the-art forcings were limited at representing details of cloud onset, and tight gradients and high-resolution transients of importance. Methods for improving the initial conditions and forcings are discussed. The cases developed are available to the general modeling community for studying continental boundary clouds.

Description: Two recent activities offer an opportunity to test general circulation model (GCM) convection and its interaction with large-scale dynamics for observed Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) events. This study evaluates the sensitivity of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM to entrainment, rain evaporation, downdrafts, and cold pools. Single Column Model versions that restrict weakly entraining convection produce the most realistic dependence of convection depth on column water vapor (CWV) during the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement MJO Investigation Experiment at Gan Island. Differences among models are primarily at intermediate CWV where the transition from shallow to deeper convection occurs. GCM 20-day hindcasts during the Year of Tropical Convection that best capture the shallowdeep transition also produce strong MJOs, with significant predictability compared to Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission data. The dry anomaly east of the disturbance on hindcast day 1 is a good predictor of MJO onset and evolution. Initial CWV there is near the shallowdeep transition point, implicating premature onset of deep convection as a predictor of a poor MJO simulation. Convection weakly moistens the dry region in good MJO simulations in the first week; weakening of large-scale subsidence over this time may also affect MJO onset. Longwave radiation anomalies are weakest in the worst model version, consistent with previous analyses of cloud/moisture greenhouse enhancement as the primary MJO energy source. The authors results suggest that both cloud-/moisture-radiative interactions and convectionmoisture sensitivity are required to produce a successful MJO simulation.

Description: A suite of climate data sets and multiple representations of atmospheric moisture demand are used to calculate many estimates of the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index, a proxy for near-surface soil moisture, across California from 1901 to 2014 at high spatial resolution. Based on the ensemble of calculations, California drought conditions were record breaking in 2014, but probably not record breaking in 2012-2014, contrary to prior findings. Regionally, the 2012-2014 drought was record breaking in the agriculturally important southern Central Valley and highly populated coastal areas. Contributions of individual climate variables to recent drought are also examined, including the temperature component associated with anthropogenic warming. Precipitation is the primary driver of drought variability but anthropogenic warming is estimated to have accounted for 8-27 percent of the observed drought anomaly in 2012-2014 and 5-18 percent in 2014. Although natural variability dominates, anthropogenic warming has substantially increased the overall likelihood of extreme California droughts.

Description: The Sahel experienced a severe drought during the 1970s and 1980s after wet periods in the 1950s and 1960s. Although rainfall partially recovered since the 1990s, the drought had devastating impacts on society. Most studies agree that this dry period resulted primarily from remote effects of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies amplified by local land surface-atmosphere interactions. This paper reviews advances made during the last decade to better understand the impact of global SST variability on West African rainfall at interannual to decadal time scales. At interannual time scales, a warming of the equatorial Atlantic and Pacific/Indian Oceans results in rainfall reduction over the Sahel, and positive SST anomalies over the Mediterranean Sea tend to be associated with increased rainfall. At decadal time scales, warming over the tropics leads to drought over the Sahel, whereas warming over the North Atlantic promotes increased rainfall. Prediction systems have evolved from seasonal to decadal forecasting. The agreement among future projections has improved from CMIP3 to CMIP5, with a general tendency for slightly wetter conditions over the central part of the Sahel, drier conditions over the western part, and a delay in the monsoon onset. The role of the Indian Ocean, the stationarity of teleconnections, the determination of the leader ocean basin in driving decadal variability, the anthropogenic role, the reduction of the model rainfall spread, and the improvement of some model components are among the most important remaining questions that continue to be the focus of current international projects.

Description: The variability of cirrus ice microphysical properties is investigated using observations obtained during the Small Particles in Cirrus (SPARTICUS) campaign. An existing approach that represents a size distribution (SD) as a single gamma function using an ellipsoid of equally realizable solutions in (N(sub 0), lambda, mu) phase space is modified to automatically identify multiple modes in SDs and characterize each mode by such an ellipsoid. The modified approach is applied to ice crystals with maximum dimension D greater than15 micrometers collected by the 2-D stereo and 2-D precipitation probes on the Stratton Park Engineering Company Learjet. The dependencies of N(sub 0), mu, and lambda from each mode, total number concentration, bulk extinction, ice water content (IWC), and mass median maximum dimension D(sub mm) as a function of temperature T and cirrus type are then analyzed. The changes in the observed codependencies between N(sub 0), mu, and lambda, bulk extinction, IWC, and D(sub mm) with environmental conditions indicate that particles were larger at higher T during SPARTICUS. At most two modes were observed in any SD during SPARTICUS, with the average boundary between them at 115 micrometers, similar to past studies not using probes with shatter mitigating tips and artifact removal algorithms. The bimodality of the SDs increased with T. This and the differences in N(sub 0), mu, and lambda between the modes suggest that particles with smaller D nucleated more recently than particles with larger D, which grew via vapor deposition and aggregation. Because smaller crystals, whose concentrations are uncertain, make marginal contributions to higher order moments, the use of higher moments for evaluating model fields is suggested.

Description: Interannual variations of latent heat fluxes (LHF) and sensible heat fluxes (SHF) over the Mediterranean for the boreal winter season (DJF) show positive trends during 1958-2011. Using reanalysis and satellite-based products, the variability and trends in the heat fluxes are compared with variations in three atmospheric teleconnection patterns: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the pressure and position of the Azores High (AH), and the East Atlantic-West Russia teleconnection pattern (EAWR). Comparison of correlations between the heat fluxes and teleconnections, along with analysis of composites of surface temperature, humidity, and wind fields for different teleconnection states, demonstrates that the AH explains the heat flux changes more successfully than NAO and EAWR. Trends in pressure and longitude of the Azores High show a strengthening and an eastward shift. Variations of the Azores High occur along an axis defined by lower pressure and westward location at one extreme and higher pressure and eastward location at the other extreme. The shift of the AH from predominance of the low/west state to the high/east state induces trends in Mediterranean Sea surface winds, temperature, and moisture. These, combined with sea surface warming trends, produce trends in wintertime sensible and latent heat fluxes.

Description: The recently completed CINDY/DYNAMO field campaign observed two Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) events in the equatorial Indian Ocean from October to December 2011. Prior work has indicated that the moist static energy anomalies in these events grew and were sustained to a significant extent by radiative feedbacks. We present here a study of radiative fluxes and clouds in a set of cloud-resolving simulations of these MJO events. The simulations are driven by the large-scale forcing data set derived from the DYNAMO northern sounding array observations, and carried out in a doubly periodic domain using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Simulated cloud properties and radiative fluxes are compared to those derived from the S-PolKa radar and satellite observations. To accommodate the uncertainty in simulated cloud microphysics, a number of single-moment (1M) and double-moment (2M) microphysical schemes in the WRF model are tested. The 1M schemes tend to underestimate radiative flux anomalies in the active phases of the MJO events, while the 2M schemes perform better, but can overestimate radiative flux anomalies. All the tested microphysics schemes exhibit biases in the shapes of the histograms of radiative fluxes and radar reflectivity. Histograms of radiative fluxes and brightness temperature indicate that radiative biases are not evenly distributed; the most significant bias occurs in rainy areas with OLR less than 150 W/ cu sq in the 2M schemes. Analysis of simulated radar reflectivities indicates that this radiative flux uncertainty is closely related to the simulated stratiform cloud coverage. Single-moment schemes underestimate stratiform cloudiness by a factor of 2, whereas 2M schemes simulate much more stratiform cloud.

Description: In this study, the combined effect of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the Lake Chad (LC) level variability is explored. Our results show that the lake level at the Bol monitoring station has a statistically significant correlation with precipitation (R2 = 0.6, at the 99.5% confidence level). The period between the late 1960s and early 1970s marked a turning point in the response of the regional rainfall to climatic drivers, thereby severely affecting the LC level. Our results also suggest that the negative impact of the cold phase of AMO on Sahel precipitation masks and supersedes the positive effect of La Nia in the early the 1970s. The drop in the size of LC level from 282.5 m in the early 1960s to about 278.1 m in 1983/1984 was the largest to occur within the period of study (1900-2010) and coincides with the combined cold phase of AMO and strong El Nio phase of ENSO. Further analyses show that the current warm phase of AMO and increasing La Nia episodes appear to be playing a major role in the increased precipitation in the Sahel region. The LC level is responding to this increase in precipitation by a gradual recovery, though it is still below the levels of the 1960s. This understanding of the AMO-ENSO-rainfall-LC level association will help in forecasting the impacts of similar combined episodes in the future. These findings also have implications for long-term water resources management in the LC region.

Description: High-resolution WRF model sensitivity experiments are carried out (with and without urban land cover) to study urban impacts on nocturnal propagating thunderstorms over the city of Minneapolis. It is found that the storm spatial characteristics, especially the position of the storm cell, are appreciably altered by the presence of urban land cover. The most robust urban instability during stormy conditions is the enhanced surface convergence due to increased frictional drag. No urban impact is visible on the rainfall intensity simulated by the model. The frictional convergence, aided by the nocturnal Urban Heat Island (UHI), appears to be responsible for attracting propagating storms towards the urban center. Advanced modeling experiments are needed to quantify the mechanical and thermal influence along with similar studies in other cities to further investigate the urban impact on the frequency and trajectory of nocturnal propagating storms.

Description: No abstract available

Description: Large sporadic volcanic eruptions inject large amounts of sulfur bearing gases into the stratosphere which then get photochemically converted to sulfuric acid aerosol droplets that exert a radiative cooling effect on the global climate system lasting for several years.

Description: About one-half of the global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and deforestation accumulates in the atmosphere, where it contributes to global warming. The rest is taken up by vegetation and the ocean. The precise contribution of the two sinks, and their location and year-to-year variability are, however, not well understood. We use two different approaches, batch Bayesian synthesis inversion and variational data assimilation, to deduce the global spatiotemporal distributions of CO2 fluxes during 2009-2010. One of our objectives is to assess different sources of uncertainties in inferred fluxes, including uncertainties in prior flux estimates and observations, and differences in inversion techniques. For prior constraints, we utilize fluxes and uncertainties from the CASA-GFED model of the terrestrial biosphere and biomass burning driven by satellite observations and interannually varying meteorology. We also use measurement-based ocean flux estimates and two sets of fixed fossil CO2 emissions. Here, our inversions incorporate column CO2 measurements from the GOSAT satellite (ACOS retrieval, filtered and bias-corrected) and in situ observations (individual flask and afternoon-average continuous observations) to estimate fluxes in 108 regions over 8-day intervals for the batch inversion and at 3 x 3.75 weekly for the variational system. Relationships between fluxes and atmospheric concentrations are derived consistently for the two inversion systems using the PCTM atmospheric transport model driven by meteorology from the MERRA reanalysis. We compare the posterior fluxes and uncertainties derived using different data sets and the two inversion approaches, and evaluate the posterior atmospheric concentrations against independent data including aircraft measurements. The optimized fluxes generally resemble those from other studies. For example, the results indicate that the terrestrial biosphere is a net CO2 sink, and a GOSAT-only inversion suggests a shift in the global sink from the tropics south to the north relative to the prior and to an in-situ-only inversion. We also find a smaller terrestrial sink in higher-latitude northern regions in boreal summer of 2010 relative to 2009.

Description: No abstract available

Description: Dengue virus is transmitted between humans and mosquitoes of the genus Aedes and causes approximately 96 million cases of disease (dengue fever) each year (Bhatet al. 2013). Symptoms of dengue fever include fever, headache, nausea, vomiting, and eye, muscle and joint pain (CDC). More sever manifestations such as abdominal pain, bleeding from nose and gums, vomiting of blood, and clammy skin occur in rare cases of dengue hemorrhagic fever (CDC). Dengue fever occurs throughout tropical and sub-tropical regions worldwide, however, the geographical range and size of epidemics is increasing. Weather and climate are drivers of dengue virus transmission dynamics (Morin et al. 2013) by affecting mosquito proliferation and the virus extrinsic incubation period (i.e. required time for the virus to replicate and disseminate within the mosquito before it can retransmit the virus).

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Description: Using satellite-based methods that provide accurate 0-1 hour convective initiation (CI) nowcasts, and rely on proven success coupling satellite and radar fields in the Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS; operated and developed at MIT-Lincoln Laboratory), to subsequently monitor for first-flash lightning initiation (LI) and later period lightning trends as storms evolve. Enhance IR-based methods within the GOES-R CI Algorithm (that must meet specific thresholds for a given cumulus cloud before the cloud is considered to have an increased likelihood of producing lightning next 90 min) that forecast LI. Integrate GOES-R CI and LI fields with radar thresholds (e.g., first greater than or equal to 40 dBZ echo at the -10 C altitude) and NWP model data within the WDSS-II system for LI-events from new convective storms. Track ongoing lightning using Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) and pseudo-Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) data to assess per-storm lightning trends (e.g., as tied to lightning jumps) and outline threat regions. Evaluate the ability to produce LI nowcasts through a "lightning threat" product, and obtain feedback from National Weather Service forecasters on its value as a decision support tool.

Description: The Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite Limb Profiler (OMPS-LP) on board the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (SNPP) satellite was launched on Oct. 28, 2011. Limb profilers measures the radiance scattered from the Earth's atmospheric in limb viewing mode from 290 to 1000 nm and infer ozone profiles from tropopause to 60 km. The recently released OMPS-LP Version 2 data product contains the first publicly released ozone profiles retrievals, and these are now available for the entire OMPS mission, which extends from April, 2012. The Version 2 data product retrievals incorporate several important improvements to the algorithm. One of the primary changes is to turn off the aerosol retrieval module. The aerosol profiles retrieved inside the ozone code was not helping the ozone retrieval and was adding noise and other artifacts. Aerosols including polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) and polar mesospheric clouds (PMC) have a detectable effect on OMPS-LP data. Our results show that ignoring the aerosol contribution would produce an ozone density bias of up to 10 percent in the region of maximum aerosol extinction. Therefore, aerosol correction is needed to improve the quality of the retrieved ozone concentration profile. We provide Aerosol Scattering Index (ASI) for detecting aerosols-PMC-PSC, defined as ln(Im-Ic) normalized at 45km, where Im is the measured radiance and Ic is the calculated radiance assuming no aerosols. Since ASI varies with wavelengths, latitude and altitude, we can start by assuming no aerosol profiles in calculating the ASIs and then use the aerosol profile to see if it significantly reduces the residuals. We also discuss the effect of aerosol size distribution on the ozone profile retrieval process. Finally, we present an aerosol-PMC-PSC correction scheme.

Description: On February 27, 2014, the NASA Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission was launched to provide the next-generation global observations of rain and snow (http:pmm.nasa.govGPM). The GPM mission consists of an international network of satellites in which a GPM Core Observatory satellite carries both active and passive microwave instruments to measure precipitation and serve as a reference standard, to unify precipitation measurements from a constellation of other research and operational satellites. The NASA Goddard Earth Sciences (GES) Data and Information Services Center (DISC) hosts and distributes GPM data within the NASA Earth Observation System Data Information System (EOSDIS). The GES DISC is home to the data archive for the GPM predecessor, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). Over the past 16 years, the GES DISC has served the scientific as well as other communities with TRMM data and user-friendly services. During the GPM era, the GES DISC will continue to provide user-friendly data services and customer support to users around the world. GPM products currently and to-be available include the following: 1. Level-1 GPM Microwave Imager (GMI) and partner radiometer products. 2. Goddard Profiling Algorithm (GPROF) GMI and partner products. 3. Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) products. (early, late, and final)A dedicated Web portal (including user guides, etc.) has been developed for GPM data (http:disc.sci.gsfc.nasa.govgpm). Data services that are currently and to-be available include Google-like Mirador (http:mirador.gsfc.nasa.gov) for data search and access; data access through various Web services (e.g., OPeNDAP, GDS, WMS, WCS); conversion into various formats (e.g., netCDF, HDF, KML (for Google Earth), ASCII); exploration, visualization, and statistical online analysis through Giovanni (http:giovanni.gsfc.nasa.gov); generation of value-added products; parameter and spatial subsetting; time aggregation; regridding; data version control and provenance; documentation; science support for proper data usage, FAQ, help desk; monitoring services (e.g. Current Conditions) for applications.In this presentation, we will present GPM data products and services with examples.

Description: The GSFC Flight Dynamics Facility (FDF) is responsible for daily and post maneuver orbit determination for the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS). The most stringent requirement for this orbit determination is 75 meters total position accuracy (3-sigma) predicted over one day for Terra's onboard navigation system. To maintain an accurate solution onboard Terra, a solution is generated and provided by the FDF Four hours after a TDRS maneuver. A number of factors present challenges to this support, such as maneuver prediction uncertainty and potentially unreliable tracking from User satellities. Reliable support is provided by comparing an extended Kalman Filter (estimated using ODTK) against a Batch Least Squares system (estimated using GTDS).

Description: Major stratospheric warmings (MSWs) are one of the most important phenomena of wintertime Arctic stratospheric variability. They consist of a warming of the Arctic stratosphere and a deceleration of the polar night jet, triggered by an anomalously high injection of tropospheric wave activity into the stratosphere. Due to the relevance and the impact of MSWs on the tropospheric circulation, several model studies have investigated their potential responses to climate change. However, a wide range of results has been obtained, extending from a future increase in the frequency of MSWs to a decrease. These discrepancies might be explained by different factors such as a competition of radiative and dynamical contributors with opposite effects on the Arctic polar vortex, biases of models to reproduce the related processes, or the metric chosen for the identification of MSWs. In this study, future changes in wintertime Arctic stratospheric variability are examined in order to obtaina more precise picture of future changes in the occurrence of MSWs. In particular, transient REFC2 simulations of different CCMs involved in the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) are used. These simulations extend from 1960 to 2100 and include forcings by halogens and greenhouse gases following the specifications of the CCMI-REF-C2 scenario. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea-ice distributions are either prescribed from coupled climate model integrations or calculated internally in the case of fully coupled atmosphere-ocean CCMs. Potential changes in the frequency and main characteristics of MSWs in the future are investigated with special focus on the dependence of the results on the criterion for the identification of MSWs and the tropospheric forcing of these phenomena.

Description: No abstract available

Description: The retrieval of the column-averaged carbon dioxide (CO2) dry air mole fraction (XCO2 ) from satellite measurements of reflected sunlight in the near-infrared can be biased due to contamination by clouds and aerosols within the instrument's field of view (FOV). Therefore, accurate aerosol and cloud screening of soundings is required prior to their use in the computationally expensive XCO2 retrieval algorithm. Robust cloud screening methods have been an important focus of the retrieval algorithm team for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2), which was successfully launched into orbit on July 2, 2014. Two distinct spectrally-based algorithms have been developed for the purpose of cloud clearing OCO-2 soundings. The A-Band Preprocessor (ABP) performs a retrieval of surface pressure using measurements in the 0.76 micron O2 A-band to distinguish changes in the expected photon path length. The Iterative Maximum A-Posteriori (IMAP) Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (DOAS) (IDP) algorithm is a non- scattering routine that operates on the O2 A-band as well as two CO2 absorption bands at 1.6 m (weak CO2 band) and 2.0 m (strong CO2 band) to provide band-dependent estimates of CO2 and H2O. Spectral ratios of retrieved CO2 and H2O identify measurements contaminated with cloud and scattering aerosols. Information from the two preprocessors is feed into a sounding selection tool to strategically down select from the order one million daily soundings collected by OCO-2 to a manageable number (order 10 to 20%) to be processed by the OCO-2 L2 XCO2 retrieval algorithm. Regional biases or errors in the selection of clear-sky soundings will introduce errors in the final retrieved XCO2 values, ultimately yielding errors in the flux inversion models used to determine global sources and sinks of CO2. In this work collocated measurements from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS), aboard the Aqua platform, and the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP), aboard the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) satellite, are used as a reference to access the accuracy and strengths and weaknesses of the OCO-2 screening algorithms. The combination of the ABP and IDP algorithms is shown to provide very robust and complimentary cloud filtering as compared to the results from MODIS and CALIOP. With idealized algorithm tuning to allow throughputs of 20-25%, correct classification of scenes, i.e., accuracies, are found to be ' 80-90% over several orbit repeat cycles in both the win ter and spring time for the three main viewing configurations of OCO-2; nadir-land, glint-land and glint-water. Investigation unveiled no major spatial or temporal dependencies, although slight differences in the seasonal data sets do exist and classification tends to be more problematic with increasing solar zenith angle and when surfaces are covered in snow and ice. An in depth analysis on both a simulated data set and real OCO-2 measurements against CALIOP highlight the strength of the ABP in identifying high, thin clouds while it often misses clouds near the surface even when the optical thickness is greater than 1. Fortunately, by combining the ABP with the IDP, the number of thick low clouds passing the preprocessors is partially mitigated.

Description: No abstract available

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Description: Precipitation is a vital aspect of our lives droughts, floods and other related disasters that involve precipitation can cause costly damage in the economic system and general society. Purpose of this project is to determine what, if any effect do hurricanes have on annual precipitation in Maryland Research will be conducted on Marylands terrain, climatology, annual precipitation, and precipitation contributed from hurricanes Possible connections to climate change

Description: The physical and chemical properties of soil dust aerosol particles fundamentally affect their interaction with climate, including shortwave absorption and radiative forcing, nucleation of cloud droplets and ice crystals, heterogeneous formation of sulfates and nitrates on the surface of dust particles, and atmospheric processing of iron into bioavailable forms that increase the productivity of marine phytoplankton. Lidar measurements, such as extinction-to-backscatter, color and depolarization ratios, are frequently used to distinguish between aerosol types with different physical and chemical properties. The chemical composition of aerosol particles determines their complex refractive index, hence affecting their backscattering properties. Here we present a study on how dust aerosol backscattering and depolarization properties at wavelengths of 355, 532 and 1064 nm are related to size and complex refractive index, which varies with the mineral composition of the dust. Dust aerosols are represented by collections of spheroids with a range of prolate and oblate aspect ratios and their optical properties are obtained using T-matrix calculations. We find simple, systematic relationships between lidar observables and the dust size and complex refractive index that may aid the use of space-based or airborne lidars for direct retrieval of dust properties or for the evaluation of chemical transport models using forward simulated lidar variables. In addition, we present first results on the spatial variation of forward-simulated lidar variables based on a dust model that accounts for the atmospheric cycle of eight different mineral types plus internal mixtures of seven mineral types with iron oxides, which was recently implemented in the NASA GISS Earth System ModelE2.

Description: Despite their importance and ubiquity in the atmosphere, organic aerosols are still very poorly parameterized in global models. This can be explained by two reasons: first, a very large number of unconstrained parameters are involved in accurate parameterizations, and second, a detailed description of semi-volatile organics is computationally very expensive. Even organic aerosol properties that are known to play a major role in the atmosphere, namely volatility and aging, are poorly resolved in global models, if at all. Studies with different models and different parameterizations have not been conclusive on whether the additional complexity improves model simulations, but the added diversity of the different host models used adds an unnecessary degree of variability in the evaluation of results that obscures solid conclusions. Aerosol microphysics do not significantly alter the mean OA vertical profile or comparison with surface measurements. This might not be the case for semi-volatile OA with microphysics.

Description: The key uncertainties in the climate sensitivity to the increasing greenhouse gases lie in the behavior and impact of short-lived species, such as tropospheric aerosols and ozone, and secondly, in the response and impact of the ocean circulation.

Description: The condensation of organic aerosols is represented in a newly developed box-model scheme, where its effect on the growth and composition of particles are examined. We implemented the volatility-basis set (VBS) framework into the aerosol mixing state resolving microphysical scheme Multiconfiguration Aerosol TRacker of mIXing state (MATRIX). This new scheme is unique and advances the representation of organic aerosols in models in that, contrary to the traditional treatment of organic aerosols as non-volatile in most climate models and in the original version of MATRIX, this new scheme treats them as semi-volatile. Such treatment is important because low-volatility organics contribute significantly to the growth of particles. The new scheme includes several classes of semi-volatile organic compounds from the VBS framework that can partition among aerosol populations in MATRIX, thus representing the growth of particles via condensation of low volatility organic vapors. Results from test cases representing Mexico City and a Finish forrest condistions show good representation of the time evolutions of concentration for VBS species in the gas phase and in the condensed particulate phase. Emitted semi-volatile primary organic aerosols evaporate almost completely in the high volatile range, and they condense more efficiently in the low volatility range.

Description: The Asian Monsoon leads to rapid vertical transport of gases and aerosols into the upper troposphere. Some of the pollution might be transported above cloud levels, which will allow it to spread globally and possibly at some occasions reach into the stratosphere. In this study we will use the GISS climate model to investigate the interactions between pollution and convective transport as well as secondary aerosol formation. Pollution resulting from anthropogenic activity as well as from natural sources such as small and large volcanic eruptions, dust storms and forest fires will be quantified. This modeling study will be accompanied by satellite observations from space that monitor aerosol optical thickness (AOT), and absorption AOT (AAOT) in two and three dimensions. Our goal is a better process level understanding of the evolution of natural and anthropogenic aerosol plumes in conjunction with the Asian Monsoon. Hence, we aim to explain their large-scale expansion, which eventually determines their impacts on climate.