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  • Books  (29)
  • Articles  (206,767)
  • Data
  • 2010-2014
  • 2005-2009  (31,288)
  • 1995-1999  (100,156)
  • 1980-1984  (34,680)
  • 1975-1979  (29,196)
  • 1960-1964  (7,813)
  • 1935-1939  (2,278)
  • 1930-1934
  • 1925-1929  (1,385)
  • 2007  (31,288)
  • 1999  (24,115)
  • 1998  (23,904)
  • 1997  (25,369)
  • 1995  (26,768)
  • 1984  (17,473)
  • 1983  (17,207)
  • 1978  (15,029)
  • 1977  (14,167)
  • 1964  (7,813)
  • 1938  (1,099)
  • 1936  (1,179)
  • 1925  (1,385)
  • Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering  (118,680)
  • Process Engineering, Biotechnology, Nutrition Technology  (91,968)
Collection
  • Books  (29)
  • Articles  (206,767)
  • Data
Source
Keywords
Publisher
Language
Years
  • 2010-2014
  • 2005-2009  (31,288)
  • 1995-1999  (100,156)
  • 1980-1984  (34,680)
  • 1975-1979  (29,196)
    • +
Year
Journal
Topic
  • 1
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    White Biotechnology (2007)
    Berlin, Heidelberg : Springer
    Details
    Keywords: Biochemistry ; Biotechnology ; Chemical engineering
    ISBN: 9783540456964
    URL: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-45696-4
    Language: English
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  • 2
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    Green Gene Technology : Research in an Area of Social Conflict (2007)
    Berlin, Heidelberg : Springer
    Details
    Keywords: Agriculture ; Biochemistry ; Biotechnology ; Microbial genetics ; Plant breeding
    ISBN: 9783540713234
    URL: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-71323-4
    Language: English
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  • 3
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    World Energy Outlook 1998 (1998)
    Paris : OECD/IEA
    Details
    Keywords: energy ; energy economics
    Description / Table of Contents: The IEA's Economic Analysis Division (EAD), with input from other Divisions, produces the World Energy Outlook, the IEA's flagship publication. In even-numbered years, the EAD publishes a global energy survey, including detailed long-term projections of energy demand, energy supply and CO2 emissions. The "WEO" looks from 20 to 30 years into the future, and its projections are based on the World Energy Model . The "World Energy Outlook: Insights" series cover a single aspect of energy, like subsidies in 1999 and global supply in 2001. The WEO Insights series are published in odd-numbered years.
    Pages: Online-Ressource (475 Seiten)
    ISBN: 9264161856
    URL: http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/media/weowebsite/2008-1994/weo1998.pdf
    Language: English
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  • 4
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    World Energy Outlook 2007 : China and India Insights (2007)
    Paris : OECD/IEA
    Details
    Keywords: energy ; energy economics
    Description / Table of Contents: World leaders have pledged to act to change the energy future. Some new policies are in place. But the trends in energy demand, imports, coal use and greenhouse gas emissions to 2030 in this year’s World Energy Outlook are even worse than projected in WEO 2006. China and India are the emerging giants of the world economy. Their unprecedented pace of economic development will require ever more energy, but it will transform living standards for billions. There can be no question of asking them selectively to curb growth so as to solve problems which are global. So how is the transition to be achieved to a more secure, lower-carbon energy system? WEO 2007 provides the answers. With extensive statistics, projections in three scenarios, analysis and advice, it shows China, India and the rest of the world why we need to co-operate to change the energy future and how to do it.
    Pages: Online-Ressource (663 Seiten)
    ISBN: 9789264027305
    URL: http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/media/weowebsite/2008-1994/WEO_2007.pdf
    Language: English
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  • 5
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    Toward a Clean, Clever and Competitive Energy Future (2007)
    Paris : OECD/IEA
    Details
    Keywords: energy ; energy economics
    Description / Table of Contents: At the Gleneagles Summit in July 2005, the G8 heads of state asked the International Energy Agency (IEA) to identify measures to map out the path to a “clean, clever and competitive energy future.” This request came in recognition of the Agency’s strengths and offered the opportunity to draw on its existing expertise and programmes. We responded with a broad array of initiatives to develop strategies to mitigate climate change, secure clean energy and achieve sustainable development.
    Pages: Online-Ressource (12 Seiten)
    URL: http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/toward-a-clean-clever-and-competitive-energy-future.html
    Language: English
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  • 6
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    Oil Supply Security : Emergency Response of IEA Countries (2007)
    Paris : OECD/IEA
    Details
    Keywords: energy ; energy economics
    Description / Table of Contents: Since its founding in 1974, oil supply security has been a core mission of the International Energy Agency. In order to test IEA member countries’ readiness to deal with oil and gas emergencies, IEA member country representatives and the IEA Secretariat participate in peer reviews of member countries every few years. Procedures and institutional arrangements are thoroughly analysed. The publication Oil Supply Security: The Emergency Response of IEA Countries (2007) represents the last full cycle of reviews of IEA member countries (and some non-member countries). Below are updated reviews of member countries’ (and Chile) emergency preparedness in oil and gas carried out in the most recent review cycle (2009-2012).
    Pages: Online-Ressource (384 Seiten)
    URL: http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/oil-supply-security-emergency-response-of-iea-countries.html
    Language: English
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  • 7
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    Reviewing R&D Policies (2007)
    Paris : OECD/IEA
    Details
    Keywords: energy ; energy economics
    Description / Table of Contents: Energy security, environmental protection and economic prosperity all pose major challenges for today’s energy decision makers. To meet these challenges, innovation, the adoption of new cost effective technologies, and better use of existing energy-efficient technologies are key elements. The world is not on course for a sustainable energy future – with security concerns and CO2 emissions projected to more than double by 2050. But this alarming outlook can be changed. A recent major IEA analysis “Energy Technology Perspectives – Scenarios and Strategies to 2050” (IEA, 2006) demonstrate that by developing and employing technologies that already exist or are under development, the world could be brought onto a much more sustainable energy path. The costs of achieving a more sustainable energy future are not disproportionate, but they will require substantial effort and investment by both the public and private sectors. There will be significant additional transitional costs related to RD&D and deployment programmes to commercialise many of the technologies over the next couple of decades. Governments will continue to play a major role in energy technology R&D – in defining policies and funding them. How can IEA member country governments be sure they are making the right choices? One answer is by learning from the experience of others – through the use of peer reviews. The IEA version of the peer review – the in-depth review - is a well established tool used since the IEA was created more than 30 years ago. It provides for its members a framework to examine and compare experiences and discuss “best practices” in a host of energy policy areas, including research, development and technology policy. Making the most of the in-depth review process, as well as recommendations emanating from it, offers the promise of better and more well-informed R&D policies – ultimately assisting the development of the new energy technologies that we so urgently need.
    Pages: Online-Ressource (79 Seiten)
    URL: http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/reviewing-rd-policies.html
    Language: English
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  • 8
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    Contribution of Renewables to Energy Security (2007)
    Paris : OECD/IEA
    Details
    Keywords: energy ; energy economics
    Description / Table of Contents: The environmental benefits of renewable energy are well known. But the contribution that they can make to energy security is less widely recognised. This report aims to redress the balance, showing how in electricity generation, heat supply, and transport, renewables can enhance energy security and suggesting policies that can optimise this contribution.
    Pages: Online-Ressource (74 Seiten)
    URL: http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/contribution-of-renewables-to-energy-security.html
    Language: English
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  • 9
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    Bioenergy Project Development & Biomass Supply (2007)
    Paris : OECD/IEA
    Details
    Keywords: energy ; energy economics
    Description / Table of Contents: Modern biomass, and the resulting useful forms of bioenergy produced from it, are anticipated by many advocates to provide a significant contribution to the global primary energy supply of many IEA member countries during the coming decades. For non-member countries, particularly those wishing to achieve economic growth as well as meet the goals for sustainable development, the deployment of modern bioenergy projects and the growing international trade in biomass-based energy carriers offer potential opportunities.
    Pages: Online-Ressource (66 Seiten)
    URL: http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/bioenergy-project-development--biomass-supply.html
    Language: English
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  • 10
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    Energy Efficiency in the North American Existing Building Stock (2007)
    Paris : OECD/IEA
    Details
    Keywords: energy ; energy economics
    Description / Table of Contents: This report presents the findings of a new assessment of the techno-economic and policy-related efficiency improvement potential in the North American building stock conducted as part of a wider appraisal of existing buildings in member states of the International Energy Agency. It summarizes results and provides insights into the lessons learned through a broader global review of best practice to improve the energy efficiency of existing buildings. At this time, the report is limited to the USA because of the large size of its buildings market. At a later date, a more complete review may include some details about policies and programs in Canada. If resources are available an additional comprehensive review of Canada and Mexico may be performed in the future.
    Pages: Online-Ressource (108 Seiten)
    URL: http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/energy-efficiency-in-the-north-american-existing-building-stock.html
    Language: English
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  • 11
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    Experience with Energy Efficiency Requirements for Electrical Equipment (2007)
    Paris : OECD/IEA
    Details
    Keywords: energy ; energy economics
    Description / Table of Contents: This paper has been produced as part of the work programme in support of the Gleneagles Plan of Action (GPOA), where the IEA was requested to “undertake a study to review existing global appliance standards and codes”. In accordance with the G8 request, this study investigates the coverage and impact of forms of minimum energy performance standards (MEPS) and comparative energy labelling programmes; which comprise the cornerstone of most IEA countries national energy efficiency strategy. This scope also reflects governments’ aspirations to achieve ambitious targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. As a result, this study does not address endorsement labelling and associated voluntary programmes, although these are also important policy tools for national energy efficiency strategies.
    Pages: Online-Ressource (105 Seiten)
    URL: http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/experience-with-energy-efficiency-requirements-for-electrical-equipment.html
    Language: English
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  • 12
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    Financing Energy Efficient Homes (2007)
    Paris : OECD/IEA
    Details
    Keywords: energy ; energy economics
    Description / Table of Contents: Existing buildings require over 40% of the world’s total final energy consumption, and account for 24% of world CO2 emissions (IEA, 2006a). Much of this consumption could be avoided through improved efficiency of building energy systems (IEA, 2006a) using current, commercially-viable technology. In most cases, these technologies make economic sense on a life-cycle cost analysis (IEA, 2006b). Moreover, to the extent that they reduce dependence on risk-prone fossil energy sources, energy efficient technologies also address concerns of energy security.
    Pages: Online-Ressource (52 Seiten)
    URL: http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/financing-energy-efficient-homes.html
    Language: English
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  • 13
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    Offshore environment of the ROPME sea area after the war-related oil spill : results of the 1993-94 Umitaka-Maru cruises (1998)
    Tokyo : TERRAPUB
    Details
    Keywords: physical and geological oceanography ; chemical oceanography ; biological oceanography ; marine pollution
    Description / Table of Contents: Chapter 1. Physical and Geological Oceanography --- Hydrography in the RSA during the RT/V Umitaka-Maru Cruises / J. Yoshida, M. Matsuyama, T. Senjyu, T. Ishimaru, T. Morinaga, H. Arakawa, A. Kamatani, M. Maeda, A. Otsuki, S. Hashimoto, I. Kasuga, Y. Koike, Y. Mine, Y. Kurita, A. Kitazawa, A. Noda, T. Hayashi, T. Miyazaki, and K. Takahashi / pp. 1-22 --- Vertical structure of a current and density front in the Strait of Hormuz / M. Matsuyama, Y. Kitade, T. Senjyu, Y. Koike, and T. Ishimaru / pp. 23-34 --- High salinity lens from the Strait of Hormuz / T. Senjyu, T. Ishimaru, M. Matsuyama, and Y. Koike / pp. 35-48 --- Distribution of Turbidity in the ROPME Sea Area / Y. Arakawa, T. Hirawake, and T. Morinaga / pp. 49-63 --- Mineralogy, genesis and sources of surficial sediments in the ROPME Sea Area / A. N. Al-Ghadban, A. M. Al-Dousari, A. Al-Kadi, M. Behbehani, and P. Caceres / pp. 65-88 --- Chapter 2. Chemical Oceanography --- Concentrations of bromide and chloride ions and their relationships with salinity in the central region of the ROPME Sea Area / A. Otsuki, K. Nagaoka, S. Hashimoto, R. Tsujimoto, T. Senjyu, and Y. Koike / pp. 89-98 --- Distribution of nutrient, nitrous oxide and chlorophyll a of RSA: Extremely high ratios of nitrite to nitrate in whole water column / S. Hashimoto, R. Tsujimoto, M. Maeda, T. Ishimaru, J. Yoshida, Y. Takasu, Y. Koike, Y. Mine, A. Kamatani, and A. Otsuki / pp. 99-124 --- Levels of mercury in the marine environment of the ROPME area / N. B. Al-Majed and W. A. Rajab / pp. 125-147 --- Metal concentrations in sediment samples collected during Umitaka-Maru Cruises in 1993-1994 / I. Alam, A. A. Al-Arfaj, and M. Sadiq / pp. 149-159 --- Trace metals in the finest fraction of surface sediments from the inner part of ROPME Sea Area / M. Maeda, H. Akitake, I. Kamiya, F. Shibata, and A. Kamatani / pp. 161-180 --- Chapter 3. Biological Oceanography --- Primary production in the ROPME Sea Area / T. Hirawake, K. Tobita, T. Ishimaru, H. Satoh, and T. Morinaga / pp. 181-191 --- Post-spill spatial distribution of zooplankton in the ROPME Sea Area. / F. Al-Yamani, K. Al-Rifaie, H. Al-Mutairi, and W. Ismail / pp. 193-202 --- Aspects of reproduction in the pearl oyster, Pinctada radiata (Leach). / S. A. A. Khamdan / pp. 203-214 --- Chapter 4. Marine pollution --- Distribution of n-alkanes and heterocyclic sulfur compounds in the central region of the ROPME Sea Area (Persian Gulf) / R. Tsujimoto, S. Hashimoto, and A. Otsuki / pp. 215-230 --- Distribution of organotin compounds in fish and the ratio of phenyl-tin to total organic-tin in the ROPME Sea Area / M. Watanabe, S. Hashimoto, K. Fujita, and A. Otsuki / pp. 231-244 --- Toxicity of dibenzothiophene and its distribution in the eastern coast of Japan and northwestern coast of the ROPME Sea Area / J. Koyama, and R. Kuroshima / pp. 245-256 --- Levels of trace metals and hydrocarbons in fish from the ROPME Sea Area / N. B. Al-Majed, F. Al-Safar, W. A. Rajab, M. S. Farhan, and E. Al-Ruqaab / pp. 257-279 --- Appendix: Technical reports --- Study of phytoplankton in ROPME Sea Area / M. Husain, and S. Ibrahim / pp. 281-301 --- Distribution of copepoda in the ROPME Sea Area 1994 / M. Al-Khabbaz, and A. M. Fahmi / pp. 303-318
    Pages: Online-Ressource (XII, 321 Seiten)
    ISBN: 4887041233
    URL: http://www.terrapub.co.jp/e-library/ropme/
    Language: English
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  • 14
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    Direct ocean disposal of carbon dioxide : the first international workshop on interaction between CO2 and ocean 3-4 December, 1991 Abiko Research Laboratory, Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Abiko, Japan (1995)
    Tokyo : TERRAPUB
    Details
    Description / Table of Contents: The Microbial Turnover of Carbon in the Deep-Sea Environment / H. W. Jannasch / pp. 1-11 --- The Role of the Anthropogenic Nutrient Input in the Carbon Fixation of the Coastal Ocean Yellow Sea: A Preliminary Study / G. H. Hong, S. H. Kim, C. S. Chung and S. J. Pae / pp. 13-22 --- The Role of the Pacific Ocean as a Regulator of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentrations / C.-T. A. Chen / pp. 23-34 --- CO2 Hydrate Formation and Inversion of Density between Liquid CO2 and H2O in Deep Sea: Experimental Study Using Submersible "Shinkai 6500" / M. Honda, J. Hashimoto, J. Naka and H. Hotta / pp. 35-43 --- Physical Data of CO2 Hydrate / T. Uchida, T. Hondoh, S. Mae and J. Kawabata / pp. 45-61 --- Discussion on the Direct Ocean Disposal of CO2 / N. Handa, H. Ishitani, H. Sakai, M. Takahashi and T. Ohsumi / pp. 63-82 --- The Second International Workshop on Interaction between CO2 and Ocean 1-2 June, 1993 / Tsukuba Center for Institutes, Tsukuba, Japan --- Disposal Options in View of Geochemical Cycle of Carbon / T. Ohsumi / pp. 83-88 --- Developing the Concept of Ocean Disposal Of CO2 within the Framework of an International Agreement / W. G. Ormerod, I. C. Webster, H. Audus and P. W. F. Riemer / pp. 89-101 --- Fate and Effects of Disposed CO2 for Scenarios in the North Pacific Ocean / C. S. Wong and R. Matear / pp. 103-122 --- Disposal Options in View of Ocean Circulation / P. M. Haugan and H. Drange / pp. 123-141 --- The Capacity of the Deep Oceans to Absorb Carbon Dioxide / K. H. Cole, G. R. Stegen and D. Spencer / pp. 143-152 --- Confined Release of CO2 into Shallow Seawater / E. E. Adams, D. Golomb, X. Y. Zhang and H. J. Herzog / pp. 153-164 --- Physical Behavior of Liquid CO2 in the Ocean / Y. Kobayashi / pp. 165-181 --- Technical View on CO2 Transportation onto the Deep Ocean Floor and Dispersion at Intermediate Depths / N. Nakashiki, T. Ohsumi and N. Katano / pp. 183-193 --- Thermodynamics of Multi-Phase Equilibria in the CO2-Seawater System / M. W. Wadsley / pp. 195-216 --- Formation and Stability of CO2 Hydrate / Y. Shindo, Y. Fujioka, Y. Yanagisawa, T. Hakuta and H. Komiyama / pp. 217-231 --- Dissolution Test of a CO2 Droplet through Clathrate Film at High Pressure / I. Aya / pp. 233-238 --- Laboratory Experiments of CO2 Injection into the Ocean / S. M. Masutani, C. M. Kinoshita, G. C. Nihous, H. Teng, L. A. Vega and S. K. Sharma / pp. 239-252 --- Current Status of Dee -Sea Biology in Relation to the CO2 Disposal / Y. Shirayama / pp. 253-264 --- Summary of Discussion on the Direct Ocean Disposal of CO2 / N. Handa, K. Yamada, H. Sakai, M. Takahashi and T. Ohsumi / pp. 265-266
    Pages: Online-Ressource (V, 274 Seiten)
    ISBN: 4887041152
    URL: http://www.terrapub.co.jp/e-library/dod/
    Language: English
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  • 15
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    Sustainable development in the Seto Inland Sea, Japan : from the viewpoint of fisheries (1997)
    Tokyo : TERRAPUB
    Details
    Keywords: sustainability ; fisheries ; coastal management ; Seto Inland Sea ; Japan
    Description / Table of Contents: Introduction / Tomotoshi Okaichi / pp. 3-5 --- Seto Inland Sea—Historical Background / Tetsuo Yanagi and Tomotoshi Okaichi / pp. 9-14 --- Biological Productivity of the Lower Trophic Levels of the Seto Inland Sea / Hiroaki Hashimoto, Toshiya Hashimoto, Osamu Matsuda, Kuninao Tada, Kyoichi Tamai, Shin-ichi Uye and Tamiji Yamamoto / pp. 17-58 --- Fisheries Production / Tatsuki Nagai and Yasuki Ogawa / pp. 61-94 --- The Preservation and Creation of Fisheries Grounds / Tetsuo Yanagi / pp. 97-119 --- Strategies for Reduction of Nutrient Loads from the Land / Masahiko Sekine and Masao Ukita / pp. 123-158 --- The Relationship between the Fishery Industry and Environmental Evaluation of the Seto Inland Sea / Hidenori Niizawa, Ken'ichi Nakagami and Kazuhisa Oba / pp. 161-185 --- Legal System and Coastal Management / Mitsuru Nakayama / pp. 189-214 --- Synthesis and Proposal / Tetsuo Yanagi and Tomotoshi Okaichi / pp. 217-219 --- Comparison of the Seto Inland Sea with Other Enclosed Seas from Around the World / Hidetaka Takeoka / pp. 223-247 --- Red Tides in the Seto Inland Sea / Tomotoshi Okaichi / pp. 251-304 --- Law Concerning Special Measures for Conservation of the Environment of the Seto Inland Sea / pp. 307-317 --- International EMECS Center International Center for the Environmental Manage ment of Enclosed Coastal Sea / pp. 321-325
    Pages: Online-Ressource (XXII, 329 Seiten)
    ISBN: 4887041225
    URL: http://www.terrapub.co.jp/e-library/sd/
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  • 16
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    The role of physical processes in mangrove environments : manual for the preservation and utilization of mangrove ecosystems (2007)
    Tokyo : TERRAPUB
    Details
    Keywords: mangrove systems ; physical processes ; mangrove physics ; tidal flow ; mangrove vegetation ; mangrove swamps ; sea waves and tsunamis ; formation of water properties ; material exchange ; sediment transport ; groundwater flow ; formation of soil properties
    Description / Table of Contents: Part I: Outline of the physical processes within mangrove systems --- Chapter 1: Introduction --- Chapter 2: Present state of mangrove studies from a physical viewpoint --- Chapter 3: Physical factors that shape mangrove environments --- Chapter 4: Hydrodynamics and physics that support the mangrove environment --- Chapter 5: Feedback processes that maintain the mangrove environment --- Chapter 6: Research technology --- Chapter 7: Modeling of mangrove systems --- Chapter 8: Future studies in the context of the preservation and utilization of mangroves
    Pages: Online-Ressource (XX, 598 Seiten)
    URL: http://www.terrapub.co.jp/e-library/matsuda/
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  • 17
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    Analytics of Protein–DNA Interactions (2007)
    Berlin, Heidelberg : Springer
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    Keywords: Biochemistry ; Biotechnology ; Human genetics ; Medicine ; Microbiology
    ISBN: 9783540481508
    URL: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-48150-8
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  • 18
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    Cell Separation : Fundamentals, Analytical and Preparative Methods (2007)
    Berlin, Heidelberg : Springer
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    Keywords: Analytical biochemistry ; Biotechnology ; Cell biology
    ISBN: 9783540752639
    URL: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-75263-9
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  • 19
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    Biofuels (2007)
    Berlin, Heidelberg : Springer
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    Keywords: Biochemistry ; Biotechnology ; Chemical engineering ; Industrial engineering
    ISBN: 9783540736516
    URL: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-73651-6
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  • 20
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    World Energy Outlook 1995 (1995)
    Paris : OECD/IEA
    Details
    Keywords: energy ; energy economics
    Pages: Online-Ressource (XX, 372 Seiten)
    ISBN: 9264143912
    URL: http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/media/weowebsite/2008-1994/weo1995.pdf
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  • 21
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    World Energy Outlook 1999 : Looking at Energy Subsidies: Getting the Prices Right (1999)
    Paris : OECD/IEA
    Details
    Keywords: energy ; energy economics
    Pages: Online-Ressource (224 Seiten)
    ISBN: 9264171401
    URL: http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/media/weowebsite/2008-1994/weo1999.pdf
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  • 22
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    Tissue Engineering II : Basics of Tissue Engineering and Tissue Applications (2007)
    Berlin, Heidelberg : Springer
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    Keywords: Biochemistry ; Biotechnology ; Medicine
    ISBN: 9783540361862
    URL: https://doi.org/10.1007/11749219
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  • 23
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    International Methane Partnership Fighting Climate Change (2007)
    Paris : OECD/IEA
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    Keywords: energy ; energy economics
    Description / Table of Contents: Due to the growth of international attention on the problem of climate change combined with the attractiveness of methane mitigation technologies, the capture and use of methane in agriculture, coal mines, landfills, and the oil and gas sector has increasingly become popular over the past few years. Highlighting this, several countries hosted the international “Methane to Market” Partnership Conference and Exposition in October 2007 in Beijing, China.
    Pages: Online-Ressource (4 Seiten)
    URL: http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/international-methane-partnership-fighting-climate-change.html
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  • 24
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    Sectoral Approaches to Greenhouse Gas Mitigation (2007)
    Paris : OECD/IEA
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    Keywords: energy ; energy economics
    Description / Table of Contents: This paper explores sectoral approaches as a new set of options to enhance the effectiveness of greenhouse gas reduction policies and to engage emerging economies on a lower emission path. It surveys existing literature and recent policy trends in international climate change discussions, and provides an overview of sectoral approaches and related issues for trade-exposed, greenhouse-gas intensive industries (cement, iron and steel and aluminium). It is also based on interviews conducted by the IEA Secretariat in Australia, China, Europe, Japan, and the United States. Sectoral approaches were also discussed during workshops on technology and energy efficiency policies in industry, following the IEA’s mandate under the Gleneagles Plan of Action.
    Pages: Online-Ressource (77 Seiten)
    URL: http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/sectoral-approaches-to-greenhouse-gas-mitigation.html
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  • 25
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    Fact Sheet : Energy Sector Methane Recovery and Use Initiative (2007)
    Paris : OECD/IEA
    Details
    Keywords: energy ; energy economics
    Description / Table of Contents: The IEA is undertaking a strategic inititive to improve global energy data and analysis by better incorporating energy sector methane emissions and recovery opportunities. The ultimate goal of this effort is to expand opportunities for cost-effective methane reductions from oil and natural gas facilities, landfills, and coal mines. Methane (CH4) is a hydrocarbon that is the primary component of natural gas. It is also a potent greenhouse gas(GHG), meaning that its presence in the atmosphere affects the earth’s temperature and climate system. As a result, efforts to reduce methane emissions by using methane for energy production can yield environmental, economic, and energy benefits.
    Pages: Online-Ressource (4 Seiten)
    URL: http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/fact-sheet--energy-sector-methane-recovery-and-use-initiative.html
    Language: English
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    Emissions Trading : Trends and Prospects (2007)
    Paris : OECD/IEA
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    Keywords: energy ; energy economics
    Description / Table of Contents: This paper provides the latest developments of announced, proposed and existing greenhouse gas emissions trading schemes (ETS) around the world since 2006. It also examines different potential design options for ETS (e.g. coverage, allocation mode, provision for offsets), and how these options are treated in the existing, announced or proposed schemes.
    Pages: Online-Ressource (43 Seiten)
    URL: http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/emissions-trading--trends-and-prospects.html
    Language: English
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    SD-PAMs : What, Where, When and How? (2007)
    Paris : OECD/IEA
    Details
    Keywords: energy ; energy economics
    Description / Table of Contents: This paper examines what “sustainable development policies and measures” (SD-PAMs) could be, and how they could be implemented and could fit into a post-2012 climate regime. This paper assumes that the option to implement SD-PAMs instead of quantified GHG emission commitments post-2012 is an option that would be likely to be only open to non-Annex I countries. There are several key, but unanswered, questions related to SD-PAMs. These include policy-related issues such as which countries could take on commitments to implement SD-PAMs (rather than quantified emission commitments)? Why would particular countries decide to take on such commitments? They also include questions related to how SD-PAMs could be implemented. For many other options for possible post-2012 GHG mitigation actions, including by non-Annex I countries, have also been proposed. However, this paper focuses solely on SD-PAMs.
    Pages: Online-Ressource (36 Seiten)
    URL: http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/sd-pams--what-where-when-and-how.html
    Language: English
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    Policy Uncertainty, Investment and Commitment Periods (2007)
    Paris : OECD/IEA
    Details
    Keywords: energy ; energy economics
    Description / Table of Contents: Today’s investment decisions in key sectors such as energy, forestry or transport have significant impacts on the levels of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions over the coming decades. Given the economic and environmental long-term implications of capital investment and retirement, a climate mitigation regime should aim to encourage capital investment in climate-friendly technologies. Many factors affect technology choice and the timing of investment, including investor expectations about future prices and policies. Recent international discussions have focused on the importance of providing more certainty about future climate policy stringency. The design of commitment periods can play a role in creating this environment. This paper assesses how the length of commitment periods influences policy uncertainty and investment decisions. In particular, the paper analyses the relationship between commitment period length and near term investment decisions in climate friendly technology.
    Pages: Online-Ressource (29 Seiten)
    URL: http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/policy-uncertainty-investment-and-commitment-periods.html
    Language: English
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    Carbon Capture and Storage in the CDM (2007)
    Paris : OECD/IEA
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    Keywords: energy ; energy economics
    Description / Table of Contents: This paper assesses the policy questions as highlighted in the relevant COP/MOP 2 decision, particularly leaks (or seepage) and permanence for geological storage, project boundaries and liability issues, and leakage, as well as a few others raised by some Parties. Since any emissions or leaks during the separation, capture and transport phases would occur during the crediting period of the project (and would therefore be accounted for as project emissions), the paper focuses its analyses for leaks and liability on storage, as it is in this part of the CCS process that long-term leaks could occur.
    Pages: Online-Ressource (31 Seiten)
    URL: http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/carbon-capture-and-storage-in-the-cdm.html
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    In-Situ Biodegradation of Toluene in a Contaminated Stream. Part 1. Field Studies (1995)
    s.l. : American Chemical Society
    Environmental science & technology 29 (1995), S. 108-116 
    Details
    ISSN: 1520-5851
    Source: ACS Legacy Archives
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/es00001a014
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    Acid Neutralizing Capacity of Municipal Waste Incinerator Bottom Ash (1995)
    s.l. : American Chemical Society
    Environmental science & technology 29 (1995), S. 142-147 
    Details
    ISSN: 1520-5851
    Source: ACS Legacy Archives
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/es00001a018
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    Impact of River Transport Characteristics on Contaminant Sampling Error and Design (1995)
    s.l. : American Chemical Society
    Environmental science & technology 29 (1995), S. 161-170 
    Details
    ISSN: 1520-5851
    Source: ACS Legacy Archives
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/es00001a021
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    Hydrocarbon Vapor Transport in Low Moisture Soils (1995)
    s.l. : American Chemical Society
    Environmental science & technology 29 (1995), S. 171-180 
    Details
    ISSN: 1520-5851
    Source: ACS Legacy Archives
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/es00001a022
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    Sources and Burden of Lead in St. Lawrence Estuary Sediments: Isotopic Evidence (1995)
    s.l. : American Chemical Society
    Environmental science & technology 29 (1995), S. 193-201 
    Details
    ISSN: 1520-5851
    Source: ACS Legacy Archives
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/es00001a025
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    Kinetics of Acetic Acid Oxidation in Supercritical Water (1995)
    s.l. : American Chemical Society
    Environmental science & technology 29 (1995), S. 216-221 
    Details
    ISSN: 1520-5851
    Source: ACS Legacy Archives
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/es00001a028
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    Biotransformation of the Cyanobacterial Hepatotoxin Microcystin-LR, as Determined by HPLC and Protein Phosphatase Bioassay (1995)
    s.l. : American Chemical Society
    Environmental science & technology 29 (1995), S. 242-246 
    Details
    ISSN: 1520-5851
    Source: ACS Legacy Archives
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/es00001a030
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    Consequences of the Partition between Water and Molecular Aggregates on the Photodegradation Pattern and Kinetics of a Pesticide of the Coumarin Family (1995)
    s.l. : American Chemical Society
    Environmental science & technology 29 (1995), S. 136-141 
    Details
    ISSN: 1520-5851
    Source: ACS Legacy Archives
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/es00001a017
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    Corrections: Mineralogy and Surface Properties of Municipal Solid Waste Ash (1995)
    s.l. : American Chemical Society
    Environmental science & technology 29 (1995), S. 288-288 
    Details
    ISSN: 1520-5851
    Source: ACS Legacy Archives
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/es00001a601
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    Cationic Surfactant Sorption to a Vermiculitic Subsoil via Hydrophobic Bonding (1995)
    s.l. : American Chemical Society
    Environmental science & technology 29 (1995), S. 312-320 
    Details
    ISSN: 1520-5851
    Source: ACS Legacy Archives
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/es00002a003
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    Sorption of Benzo[a]pyrene and Phenanthrene on Suspended Harbor Sediment as a Function of Suspended Sediment Concentration and Salinity: A Laboratory Study Using the Cosolvent Partition Coefficient (1995)
    s.l. : American Chemical Society
    Environmental science & technology 29 (1995), S. 363-371 
    Details
    ISSN: 1520-5851
    Source: ACS Legacy Archives
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/es00002a009
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  • 41
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    Vehicle Emission Unit Risk Factors for Transportation Risk Assessments (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: When the transportation risk posed by shipments of hazardous chemical and radioactive materials is being assessed, it is necessary to evaluate therisks associated with both vehicle emissions and cargo-related risks. Diesel exhaust and fugitive dust emissions from vehicles transporting hazardous shipments lead to increased air pollution, which increases the risk of latent fatalities in the affected population along the transport route. The estimated risk from these vehicle-related sources can often be as large or larger than the estimated risk associated with the material being transported. In this paper, data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Motor Vehicle-Related Air Toxics Study are first used to develop latent cancer fatality estimates per kilometer of travel in rural and urban areas forall diesel truck classes. These unit risk factors are based on studies investigating the carcinogenic nature of diesel exhaust. With the same methodology, the current per-kilometer latent fatality risk factor used in transportation risk assessments for heavy diesel trucks in urban areas is revised and the analysis expanded to provide risk factors for rural areas and all diesel truck classes. These latter fatality estimates may include, but are not limited to, cancer fatalities and are based primarily on the most recent epidemiological data available on mortality rates associated with ambient air PM-10 concentrations.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb01135.x
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  • 42
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    Using Animated Probability Plots to Explore the Suitability of Mixture Models with Two Component Distributions (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Risk assessors often use different probability plots as a way to assessthe fit of a particular distribution or model by comparing the plotted points to a straight line and to obtain estimates of the parameters in parametric distributions or models. When empirical data do not fall in a sufficiently straight line on a probability plot, and when no other single parametricdistribution provides an acceptable (graphical) fit to the data, the risk assessor may consider a mixture model with two component distributions. Animated probability plots are a way to visualize the possible behaviors of mixture models with two component distributions. When no single parametric distribution provides an adequate fit to an empirical dataset, animated probability plots can help an analyst pick some plausible mixture models for the data based on their qualitative fit. After using animations during exploratory data analysis, the analyst must then use other statistical tools, including but not limited to: Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) to find the optimal parameters, Goodness of Fit (GoF) tests, and a variety of diagnostic plots to check the adequacy of the fit. Using a specific example with two LogNormal components, we illustrate the use of animated probability plots asa tool for exploring the suitability of a mixture model with two component distributions. Animations work well with other types of probability plots, and they may be extended to analyze mixture models with three or more component distributions.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb01137.x
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    A Quantitative Analysis of Factors Affecting PELs and TLVs for Carcinogens (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: For carcinogens, this paper provides a quantitative examination of the roles of potency and weight-of-evidence (WOE) in setting permissible exposure limits (PELs) at the U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) and threshold limit values (TLVs) at the private American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists (ACGIH). On normative grounds, both of these factors should influence choices about the acceptable level of exposures. Our major objective is to examine whether and in what ways these factors have been considered by these organizations. A lesser objective is to identify outliers, which might be candidates for further regulatory scrutiny. Our sample (N=48) includes chemicals for which EPA has estimated a unit risk as a measure of carcinogenic potency and for which OSHA or the ACGIH has a PEL or TLV. Different assessments of the strength of the evidence of carcinogenicity were obtained from EPA, ACGIH, and the International Agency for Research on Cancer. We found that potency alone explains 49% of the variation in PELs and 62% of the variation in TLVs. For the ACGIH, WOE plays a much smaller role than potency. TLVs set by the ACGIH since 1989 appear to be stricter than earlier TLVs. We suggest that this change represents evidence that the ACGIH had responded to criticisms leveled at it in the late 1980s for failing to adopt sufficiently protective standards. The models developed here identify 2-nitropropane, ethylene dibromide, and chromium as having OSHA PELs significantly higher than predicted on the basis of potency and WOE.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb01141.x
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    Performance Assessment for Radioactive Waste Disposal (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00445.x
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    The Role of Performance Assessment in the Regulation of Underground Disposal of Radioactive Wastes: An International Perspective (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Much has been written about the development and application of quantitative methods for estimating under uncertainty the long-term radiological performance of underground disposal of radioactive wastes. Until recently, interest has been focused almost entirely on the technical challenges regardless of the role of the organization responsible for these analyses. Now the dialogue between regulators, the repository developer or operator, and other interested parties in the decision-making process receives increasing attention, especially in view of some current difficulties in obtaining approvals to construct or operate deep facilities for intermediate or high-level wastes. Consequently, it is timely to consider the options for regulators’review and evaluation of safety submissions, at the various stages in the site selection to repository closure process, and to consider, especially, the role for performance assessment (PA) within the programs of a regulator both before and after delivery of such a submission. The origins and broad character of present regulations in the European Union (EU) and in the OECD countries are outlined and some regulatory PA reviewed. The issues raised are discussed, especially in regard to the interpretation of regulations, the dangers from the desire for simplicity in argument, the use of regulatory PA to review and challenge the PA in the safety case, and the effects of the relationship between proponent and regulator. Finally, a very limited analysis of the role of PA in public hearings is outlined and recommendations are made, together with proposals for improving the mechanisms for international collaboration on technical issues of regulatory concern.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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    A Decision Theory Perspective on the Disposal of High-Level Radioactive Waste (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: In this paper the problem of high-level nuclear waste disposal is viewed as a five-stage, cascaded decision problem. The first four of these decisions having essentially been made, the work of recent years has been focused on the fifth stage, which concerns specifics of the repository design. The probabilistic performance assessment (PPA) work is viewed as the outcome prediction for this stage, and the site characterization work as the information gathering option. This brief examination of the proposed Yucca Mountain repository through a decision analysis framework resulted in three conclusions: (1) A decision theory approach to the process of selecting and characterizing Yucca Mountain would enhance public understanding of the issues and solutions to high-level waste management; (2) engineered systems are an attractive alternative to offset uncertainties in the containment capability of the natural setting and should receive greater emphasis in the design of the repository; and (3) a strategy of “waste management” should be adopted, as opposed to “waste disposal,” as it allows for incremental confirmation and confidence building of a permanent solution to the high-level waste problem.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00450.x
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    Comments on “Performance Assessment in Support of the 1996 Compliance Certification Application for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant” (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00454.x
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    Comments on the Legal Admissibility of a Performance Assessment for a Radioactive Waste Disposal Facility (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00456.x
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    Individual Prior Information in a Physiological Model of 2H8-Toluene Kinetics: An Empirical Bayes Estimation Strategy (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Physiologically-based toxicokinetic (PBTK) models are widely used to quantify whole-body kinetics of various substances. However, since they attempt to reproduce anatomical structures and physiological events, they have ahigh number of parameters. Their identification from kinetic data alone is often impossible, and other information about the parameters is needed to render the model identifiable. The most commonly used approach consists of independently measuring, or taking fom literature sources, some of the parameters, fixing them in the kinetic model, and then performing model identification on a reduced number of less certain parameters. This results in a substantial reduction of the degrees of freedom of the model. In this study, we show that this method results in final estimates of the free parameters whose precision is overestimated. We then compared this approach with an empirical Bayes approach, which takes into account not only the mean value, but also the error associated with the independently determined parameters. Blood and breath 2H8- toluene washout curves, obtained in17 subjects, were analyzed with a previously presented PBTK model suitable for person-specific dosimetry. Model parameters with the greatest effect onpredicted levels were alveolar ventilation rate QPC, fat tissue fraction VFC, blood air partition coefficient Kb, fraction of cardiac output to fat Qa/co and rate of extrahepatic metabolismVmax.p. Differences in the measured and Bayesian-fitted values of QPC, VFc and Kb were significant (p 〈 0.05), andthe precision of the fitted values Vmax.p and Qa/co went from 11 ± 5% to 75 ± 170% (NS) and from 8 ± 2% to 9 ± 2% (p 〈 0.05) respectively. The empirical Bayes approach did not result in less reliable parameter estimates: rather, it pointed out that the precision of parameter estimates can be overly optimistic when other parameters in the model, eitherdirectly measured or taken from literature sources, are treated as known without error. In conclusion, an empirical Bayes approach to parameter estimation resulted in a better model fit, different final parameter estimates, and more realistic parameter precisions.
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    Monte Carlo Sensitivity Analysis of Unknown Parameters in Hazardous Materials Transportation Risk Assessment (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: The US Department of Transportation was interested in the risks associated with transporting Hydrazine in tanks with and without relief devices. Hydrazine is both highly toxic and flammable, as well as corrosive. Consequently, there was a conflict as to whether a relief device should be used or not. Data were not available on the impact of relief devices on release probabilities or the impact of Hydrazine on the likelihood of fires and explosions. In this paper, a Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis of the unknown parameters was used to assess the risks associated with highway transport of Hydrazine. To help determine whether or not relief devices should be used, fault trees and event trees were used to model the sequences of events that could lead to adverse consequences during transport of Hydrazine. The event probabilities in the event trees were derived as functions of the parameters whose effects were not known. The impacts of these parameters on the riskof toxic exposures, fires, and explosions were analyzed through a Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis and analyzed statistically through an analysis of variance. The analysis allowed the determination of which of the unknown parameters had a significant impact on the risks. It also provided the necessary support to a critical transportation decision even though the values of several key parameters were not known.
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    Health Risk Assessment of a Modern Municipal Waste Incinerator (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: During the modernization of the municipal waste incinerator (MWI, maximum capacity of 180,000 tons per year) of Metropolitan Grenoble (405,000 inhabitants), in France, a risk assessment was conducted, based on four tracerpollutants: two volatile organic compounds (benzene and 1,1,1 trichloroethane) and two heavy metals (nickel and cadmium, measured in particles). A Gaussian plume dispersion model, applied to maximum emissions measured at the MWI stacks, was used to estimate the distribution of these pollutants in the atmosphere throughout the metropolitan area. A random sample telephone survey (570 subjects) gathered data on time-activity patterns, according to demographic characteristics of the population. Life-long exposure was assessed as a time-weighted average of ambient air concentrations. Inhalation alone was considered because, in the Grenoble urban setting, other routes of exposure are not likely. A Monte Carlo simulation was used to describe probability distributions of exposures and risks. The median of the life-long personal exposures distribution to MWI benzene was 3.2 · 10−5μg/m3 (20th and 80th percentiles = 1.5 · 10−5 and 6.5 · 10−5μg/m3), yielding a 2.6 · 10−10 carcinogenic risk (1.2 · 10−10 - 5.4 · 10−10). For nickel, the corresponding life-time exposure and cancer risk were 1.8 ·10−4μg/m3 (0.9 ·10−4 - 3.6 ·10−4μg/m3) and 8.6 · 10−8 (4.3 · 10−8 - 17.3 ·10−8); for cadmium they were respectively 8.3 ·10−6μg/m3 (4.0 ·10−6 - 17.6 ·10−6) and 1.5 · (7.2 · 10−9 - 3.1. · 10−8). Inhalation exposure to cadmium emitted by the MWI represented less than 1% of the WHO Air Quality Guideline (5 ng/m3), while there was a margin of exposure of more than 109 between the NOAEL (150 ppm) and exposure estimates to trichloroethane. Neither dioxins nor mercury, a volatile metal, were measured. This could lessen the attributable life-long risks estimated. The minute (VOCs and cadmium) to moderate (nickel) exposure and risk estimates are in accord with other studies on modern MWIs meeting recent emission regulations, however.
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    A Comparison of Methods of Benchmark-Dose Estimation for Continuous Response Data (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Methods of quantitative risk assessment for toxic responses that are measured on a continuous scale are not well established. Although risk-assessment procedures that attempt to utilize the quantitative information in such data have been proposed, there is no general agreement that these procedures are appreciably more efficient than common quantal dose-response procedures that operate on dichotomized continuous data. This paper points out an equivalence between the dose-response models of the nonquantal approach of Kodell and West(1)) and a quantal probit procedure, and provides results from a Monte Carlo simulation study to compare coverage probabilities of statistical lower confidence limits on dose corresponding to specified additional risk based on applying the two procedures to continuous data from a dose-response experiment. The nonquantal approach is shown to be superior, in terms of both statistical validity and statistical efficiency.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00420.x
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    Democratizing Risk Management: Successful Public Involvement in Local Water Management Decisions (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: This paper discusses a successful public involvement effort that addressed and resolved several highly controversial water management issues involving environmental and flood risks associated with an electrical generation facility in British Columbia. It begins with a discussion of concepts for designing public involvement, summarizing research that indicates why individuals and groups may find it difficult to make complex choices. Reasons for public involvement, and the range of current practices are discussed. Next, four principles for designing group decision process are outlined, emphasizing decision-aiding concepts that include “value-focused thinking” and “adaptive management.” The next sections discuss the Alouette River Stakeholder Committee process in terms of objectives, participation, process, methods for structuring values and creating alternatives, information sources, and results. Discussion and conclusions complete the paper.
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    Public Support For Earthquake Risk Mitigation In Portland, Oregon (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: During the 1980s, seismic research suggested that Oregon and the City of Portland had a higher risk of a major earthquake than had previously been assumed. In 1993, the State of Oregon adopted a new version of the Oregon Structural Specialty Code, which changed the designation of western Oregon from seismic zone 2b to seismic zone 3. The City of Portland established a program and a Task Force on Seismic Strengthening of Buildings to recommend actions that would encourage upgrading of city buildings. A survey of adult city residents was conducted in April, 1996 to determine public attitudes and opinions about earthquake risks, management and mitigation of earthquake hazards, priorities for protection by strengthening buildings, evaluations of strategies for informing the public about earthquake risks, and support for specific options the city might take to protect citizens against earthquake events. Social and demographic information on individuals and households was also collected. Respondents provided ratings for a wide range of social and environmental risks, provided information on priorities for strengthening key buildings and infrastructure facilities, and answered hypothetical questions about voting for bond measures to pay for city earthquake mitigation programs. Respondents recognized significant risk from earthquakes and supported programs to protect people, especially vulnerable residents such as children and the sick. There was strong support for protecting emergency response capabilities. There was much less support for using public funds to reduce the risks associated with privately owned buildings. There were also some strong pockets of resistance to publicly funded mitigation programs in response to the hypothetical bond measures.
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    Hormesis: A Highly Generalizable and Reproducible Phenomenon With Important Implications for Risk Assessment (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: From a comprehensive search of the literature, the hormesis phenomenon was found to occur over a wide range of chemicals, taxonomic groups, and endpoints. By use of computer searches and extensive cross-referencing, nearly 3000 potentially relevant articles were identified. Evidence of chemical and radiation hormesis was judged to have occurred in approximately 10oO of these by use of a priori criteria. These criteria included study design features (e.g., number of doses, dose range), dose-response relationship, statistical analysis, and reproducibility of results. Numerous biological endpoints were assessed, with growth responses the most prevalent, followed by metabolic effects, reproductive responses, longevity, and cancer. Hormetic responses were generally observed to be of limited magnitude with an average maximum stimulation of 30 to 60 percent over that of the controls. This maximum usually occurred 4- to 5-fold below the NOAEL for a particular endpoint. The present analysis suggests that hormesis is a reproducible and generalizable biological phenomenon and is a fundamental component of many, if not most, dose-response relationships. The relatively infrequent observation of homesis in the literature is believed to be due primarily to experimental design considerations, especially with respect to the number and range of doses and endpoint selection. Because of regulatory considerations, most toxicologic studies have been carried out at high doses above the low-dose region where the hormesis phenomenon occurs.
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    Call for Nominations: Area Editor in Social Sciences and Decision Making for Risk Analysis: An International Journal (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
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    Opening Editorial (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
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    Response to “Eyes Closed Simple, Intuitive, Statistically Sound, and Efficient Methods for Estimating Parameters of Clonal Growth Cancer Models” (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00379.x
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    Context in the Risk Assessment of Digital Systems (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: As the use of digital computers for instrumentation and control of safety-critical systems has increased, there has been a growing debate over the issue of whether probabilistic risk assessment techniques can be applied to these systems. This debate has centered on the issue of whether software failures can be modeled probabilistically. This paper describes a “context-based” approach to software risk assessment that explicitly recognizes the fact that the behavior of software is not probabilistic. The source of the perceived uncertainty in its behavior results from both the input to the software as well as the application and environment in which the software is operating. Failures occur as the result of encountering some context for which the software was not properly designed, as opposed to the software simply failing “randomly.” The paper elaborates on the concept of “error-forcing context” as it applies to software. It also illustrates a methodology which utilizes event trees, fault trees, and the Dynamic Flowgraph Methodology (DFM) to identify “error-forcing contexts” for software in the form of fault tree prime implicants.
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    Uncertainty in Comparative Risk Analysis for Threatened Australian Plant Species (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Australian state and federal agencies use a broad range of methods for setting conservation priorities for species at risk. Some of these are based on rule sets developed by the International Union for the Conservation ofNature, while others use point scoring protocols to assess threat. All of them ignore uncertainty in the data. In this study, we assessed the conservation status of 29 threatened vascular plants from Tasmania and New South Wales using a variety of methods including point scoring and rule-based approaches. In addition, several methods for dealing with uncertainty in the data were applied to each of the prioritysetting schemes. The results indicatethat the choice of a protocol for setting priorities and the choice of the way in which uncertainty is treated may make important differences to the resulting assessments of risk. The choice among methods needs to be rationalized within the management context in which it is to be applied. These methods are not a substitute for more formal risk assessment.
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    The Power of Perception: Health Risk Attributed to Air Pollution in anUrban Industrial Neighbourhood (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: This paper describes a multi-stakeholder process designed to assess thepotential health risks associated with adverse air quality in an urban industrial neighborhood. The paper briefly describes the quantitative health risk assessment conducted by scientific experts, with input by a grassroots community group concerned about the impacts of adverse air quality on theirhealth and quality of life. In this case, rather than accept the views of the scientific experts, the community used their powers of perception toadvantage by successfully advocating for a professionally conducted community health survey. This survey was designed to document, systematically and rigorously, the health risk perceptions community members associated with exposure to adverse air quality in their neighborhood. This paper describes theinstitutional and community contexts within which the research is situated as well as the design, administration, analysis, and results of the community health survey administered to 402 households living in an urban industrial neighborhood in Hamilton, Ontario, Canada. These survey results served tolegitimate the community's concerns about air quality and tohelp broaden operational definitions of ‘health.’ In addition, the resultsof both healthrisk assessment exercises served to keep issues of air quality on the localpolitical agenda. Implications of these findings for our understanding of theenvironmental justice process as well as the ability of communitiesto influence environmental health policy are discussed.
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    Simultaneous Analysis of Individual and Aggregate Responses in Psychometric Data Using Multilevel Modeling (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Psychometric data on risk perceptions are often collected using the method developed by Slovic, Fischhoff, and Lichtenstein, where an array of risk issues are evaluated with respect to a number of risk characteristics, such as how dreadful, catastrophic or involuntary exposure to each risk is. The analysis of these data has often been carried out at an aggregate level, where mean scores for all respondents are compared between risk issues. However, this approach may conceal important variation between individuals, and individual analyses have also been performed for single risk issues. This paper presents a new methodological approach using a technique called multilevel modelling for analysing individual and aggregated responses simultaneously, to produce unconditional and unbiased results at both individual and aggregate levels of the data. Two examples are given using previously published data sets on risk perceptions collected by the authors, and results between the traditional and new approaches compared. The discussion focuses on the implications of and possibilities provided by the new methodology.
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    A Probabilistic Approach for Deriving Acceptable Human Intake Limits and Human Health Risks from Toxicological Studies: General Framework (1998)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 18 (1998), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: The use of uncertainty factors in the standard method for deriving acceptable intake or exposure limits for humans, such as the Reference Dose (RfD), may be viewed as a conservative method of taking various uncertainties into account. As an obvious alternative, the use of uncertainty distributions instead of uncertainty factors is gaining attention. This paper presents a comprehensive discussion of a general framework that quantifies both the uncertainties in the no-adverse-effect level in the animal (using a benchmark-like approach) and the uncertainties in the various extrapolation steps involved (using uncertainty distributions). This approach results in an uncertainty distribution for the no-adverse-effect level in the sensitive human subpopulation, reflecting the overall scientific uncertainty associated with that level. A lower percentile of this distribution may be regarded as an acceptable exposure limit (e.g., RfD) that takes account of the various uncertainties in a nonconservative fashion. The same methodology may also be used as a tool to derive a distribution for possible human health effects at a given exposure level. We argue that in a probabilistic approach the uncertainty in the estimated no-adverse-effect-level in the animal should be explicitly taken into account. Not only is this source of uncertainty too large to be ignored, it also has repercussions for the quantification of the other uncertainty distributions.
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    Eyes Closed: Simple, Intuitive, Statistically Sound, and Efficient Methods for Estimating Parameters of Clonal Growth Cancer Models (1998)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 18 (1998), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1998.tb00366.x
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    Rating Threat Mitigators: Faith in Experts, Governments, and Individuals Themselves to Create a Safer World (1998)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 18 (1998), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: This research explores public judgments about the threat-reducing potential of experts, individual behavior, and government spending. The data are responses of a national sample of 1225 to mail surveys that include measures of several dimensions of public judgments about violent crime, automobile accidents, hazardous chemical waste, air pollution, water pollution, global warming, AIDS, heart disease, and cancer. Beliefs about who can best mitigate threats are specific to classes of threats. In general, there is little faith that experts can do much about violent crime and automobile accidents, moderate faith in their ability to address problems of global warming, and greater expectations for expert solutions to the remaining threats. People judge individual behavior as effective in reducing the threats of violent crime, AIDS, heart disease, and automobile accidents but less so for the remaining threats. Faith in more government spending is highest for AIDS and the other two health items, lowest for the trio of violent crime, automobile accidents, and global warming, and moderate for the remaining threats. For most threats, people are not distributed at the extremes in judging mitigators. Strong attitudinal and demographic cleavages are also lacking, although some interesting relationships occur. This relative lack of sharp cleavages and the generally moderate opinion indicate ample opportunity for public education and risk communication.
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    A Risk Assessment for Consumers of Mourning Doves (1998)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 18 (1998), S. 0 
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    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Recreational and subsistence hunters and anglers consume a wide range of species, including birds, mammals, fish and shellfish, some of which represent significant exposure pathways for environmental toxic agents. This study focuses on the Department of Energy's (DOE'S) Savannah River Site (SRS), a former nuclear weapons production facility in South Carolina. The potential risk of contaminant intake from consuming mourning doves (Zenaida macroura), the most popular United States game bird, was examined under various risk scenarios. For all of these scenarios we used the mean tissue concentration of six metals (lead, mercury, cadmium, selenium, chromium, manganese) and radiocesium, in doves collected on and near SRS. We also estimated risk to a child consuming doves that had the maximum contaminant level. We used the cancer slope factor for radiocesium, the Environmental Protection Agencies UptakeBiokinetic model for lead, and published reference doses for the other metals. As a result of our risk assessments we recommend management of water levels in contaminated reservoirs so that lake bed sediments are not exposed to use by gamebirds and other terrestrial wildlife. Particularly, measures should be taken to insure that the hunting public does not have access to such a site. Our data also indicate that doves on popular hunting areas are exposed to excess lead, suggesting that banning lead shot for doves, as has been done for waterfowl, is desirable.
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    An Empirical Approach for Deriving Information on Total Duration of Exposure from Information on Historical Exposure (1998)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 18 (1998), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Exposure duration is an important component in determining long-term dose rates associated with exposure to environmental contaminants. Surveys of exposed populations collect information on individuals' past behaviors, including the durations of a behavior up to the time of the survey. This paper presents an empirical approach for determining the distribution of total durations that is consistent with the distribution past durations obtained from surveys. This approach is appropriate where the rates of beginning and ending a behavior are relatively constant over time. The approach allows the incorporation of information on the distribution of age in a population into the determination of the distribution of durations. The paper also explores the impact of “longevity” bias on survey data. A case study of the application of this approach to two angler populations is also provided. The results of the case study have characteristics similar to the results reported by Israeli and Nelson (Risk Anal. 12, 65-72 (1992)) from their analytical model of residential duration. Specifically, the average period of time for the total duration in the entire population is shorter than the average period of time reported for historical duration in the surveyed individuals.
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    Evaluating Risk Communication: Examining Target Audience Perceptions About Four Presentation Formats for Fish Consumption Health Advisory Information (1998)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 18 (1998), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Information format can influence the extent to which target audiences understand and respond to risk-related information. This study examined four elements of risk information presentation format. Using printed materials, we examined target audience perceptions about: (a) reading level; (b) use of diagrams vs. text; (c) commanding versus cajoling tone; and (d) use of qualitative vs. quantitative information presented in a risk ladder. We used the risk communication topic of human health concerns related to eating noncommercial Great Lakes fish affected by chemical contaminants. Results from the comparisons of specific communication formats indicated that multiple formats are required to meet the needs of a significant percent of anglers for three of the four format types examined. Advisory text should be reviewed to ensure the reading level is geared to abilities of the target audience. For many audiences, a combination of qualitative and quantitative information, and a combination of diagrams and text may be most effective. For most audiences, a cajoling rather than commanding tone better provides them with the information they need to make a decision about fish consumption. Segmenting audiences regarding information needs and communication formats may help clarify which approaches to take with each audience.
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    A Trivariate Distribution for the Height, Weight, and Fat of Adult Men (1998)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 18 (1998), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Using exploratory data analysis, probability plots, scatterplots, and computer animations to rotate and visualize the data, we fit a trivariate Normal distribution to data for the height, the natural logarithm of body weight, and the body fat for 646 men between the ages of 50 and 80 years as reported by the medical staff of the U.S. Veterans Administration's “Normative Aging Study” in Boston, MA. Although these data do not include any children, women, or young men, the measurements represent the best data that we could find through a 4-year search. We believe that these data are well measured and reliable for men in the specified age range and that these data reveal an interesting statistical pattern for use in probabilistic PBPK models.
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    ASME Risk-Based Inservice Inspection and Testing: An Outlook to the Future (1998)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 18 (1998), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Significant research work has been completed in the development of risk-based inservice inspection (ISI) and testing (IST) technology for nuclear power plant applications through the ASME Center For Research and Technology Development. This paper provides technology that has been developed for these engineering applications. The technology includes risk-based ranking methods, beginning with the use of plant probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), for the determination of risk-significant and less risk-significant components for inspection and the determination of similar populations for pumps and valves for inservice testing. Decision analysis methods are outlined for developing ISI and IST programs. This methodology integrates nondestructive examination data, structural reliability/risk assessment results, PRA results, failure data, and expert opinion to evaluate the effectiveness of ISI programs. Similarly, decision analysis uses the output of failure mode and causes analysis in combination with data, expert opinion, and PRA results to evaluate the effectiveness of IST programs. Results of pilot applications of these ASME methods to actual nuclear plant systems and components are summarized. The results of this work are already being used to develop recommended changes in ISI and IST requirements by the ASME Section XI and the ASME Operation and Maintenance Code organizations. A perspective on Code and regulatory adoption is also outlined. Finally, the potential benefits to the nuclear industry in terms of safety, person-rem exposure, and costs are summarized.
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    Use of Technical Expert Panels: Applications to Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (1998)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 18 (1998), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) is a methodology that estimates the likelihood that various levels of earthquake-caused ground motions will be exceeded at a given location in a given future time period. Due to large uncertainties in all of the geosciences data and in their modeling, multiple model interpretations are often possible. This leads to disagreements among the experts, which in the past has led to disagreement on the selection of a ground motion for design at a given site. This paper reports on a project, co-sponsored by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the U.S. Department of Energy, and the Electric Power Research Institute, that was undertaken to review the state-of-the-art and improve on the overall stability of the PSHA process, by providing methodological guidance on how to perform a PSHA. The project reviewed past studies and examined ways to improve on the present state-of-the-art. In analyzing past PSHA studies, the most important conclusion is that differences in PSHA results are commonly due to process rather than technical differences. Thus, the project concentrated heavily on developing process recommendations, especially on the use of multiple experts, and this paper reports on those process recommendations. The problem of facilitating and integrating the judgments of a diverse group of experts is analyzed in detail. The authors believe that the concepts and process principles apply just as well to non-earthquake fields such as volcanic hazard, flood risk, nuclear-plant safety, and climate change.
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    Response to Earle and Cvetkovich (1998)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 18 (1998), S. 0 
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    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
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    Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic Model for Trichloroethylene Considering Enterohepatic Recirculation of Major Metabolites (1998)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
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    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Trichloroacetic acid (TCA) is major metabolite of trichloroethylene (TRI) thought to contribute to its hepatocarcinogenic effects in mice. Recent studies have shown that peak blood concentrations of TCA in rats do not occur until approximately 12 hours following an oral dose of TRI. However, blood concentrations of TRI reach maximum within an hour and are nondetectable after 2 hours.(1) The results of study which examined the enterohepatic recirculation (EHC) of the principle TRI metabolited(2) was used to develop physiologically-based pharmacokinetic model for TRI, which includes enterohepatic recirculation of its metabolites. The model quantitatively predicts the uptake, distribution and elimination of TRI, trichloroethanol, trichloroethanol-glucuronide, and TCA and includes production of metabolites through the enterohepatic recirculation pathway. Physiologic parameters used in the model were obtained from the literature.(3.4) Parameters for TRI metabolism were taken from Fisher et al.(5) Other kinetic parameters were found in the literature or estimated from experimental data.(2) The model was calibrated to data from experiments of an earlier study where TRI was orally administered(2) Verification of the model was conducted using data on the enterohepatic recirculation of TCEOH and TCA(2) chloral hydrate data (infusion doses) from Merdink,(1) and TRI data from Templin(l) and Larson and Bull.(1)
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    Estimates of the Number of Liver Carcinogens in Bioassays Conducted by the National Toxicology Program (1998)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 18 (1998), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Estimates were made of the numbers of liver carcinogens in 390 long-term bioassays conducted by the National Toxicology Program (NTP). These estimates were obtained from examination of the global pattern of p-values obtained from statistical tests applied to individual bioassays. Representative estimates of the number of liver carcinogens (90% confidence interval in parentheses) obtained in our analysis compared to NTP's determination are as follows: female rats—49 (23, 76), NTP = 30; male rats—88 (59, 116), NTP = 35; female mice—131 (105, 157), NTP = 81; male mice—100 (73, 126), NTP = 61; overall—166 (135, 197), NTP = 108. The estimator from which these estimates were obtained is biased low by an unknown amount. Consequently, this study provides persuasive evidence of the existence of more rodent liver carcinogens than were identified by the NTP.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1998.tb01297.x
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    Special Introduction (1998)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 18 (1998), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1998.tb00923.x
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    Comparison of Six Dose-Response Models for Use with Food-Borne Pathogens (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Food-related illness in the United States is estimated to affect over six million people per year and cost the economy several billion dollars. These illnesses and costs could be reduced if minimum infectious doses were established and used as the basis of regulations and monitoring. However, standard methodologies for dose-response assessment are not yet formulated for microbial risk assessment. The objective of this study was to compare dose response models for food-borne pathogens and determine which models were most appropriate for a range of pathogens. The statistical models proposed in the literature and chosen for comparison purposes were log-normal,(19) log-logistic,(17) exponential,(7,9,17)ß-Poisson(7,9,18) and Welbull-Gamma.(3) These were fit to four data sets also taken from published literature, Shigella fiexneri,(9,12,13)Shigella dysenteriae,(9,11)Campylobacter jejuni,(15,16) and Salmonella typhosa,(7,14) usingthe method of maximum likelihood. The Weibull-gamma, the only model with three parameters, was also the only model capable of fitting all the data sets examined using the maximum likelihood estimation for comparisons. Infectious doses were also calculated using each model. Within any given data set, the infectious dose estimated to affect one percent of the population ranged from one order of magnitude to as much as nine orders of magnitude, illustrating the differences in extrapolation of the dose response models. More data are needed to compare models and examine extrapolation from high to low doses for food-borne pathogens.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb01130.x
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    Risk Perception in Context: The Savannah River Site Stakeholder Study (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Environmental managers are increasingly charged with involving the public in the development and modification of policies regarding risks to huma health and the environment. Involving the public in environmental decision making first requires a broad understanding of how and why the public perceives various risks. The Savannah River Stakeholder Study was conducted withthe purpose of investigating individual, economic, and social characteristics of risk perceptions among those living near the Savannah River Nuclear Weapons Site. A number of factors were found to impact risk perceptions among those living near the site. One's estimated proximity to the site and relative river location surfaced as strong determinants of risk perceptions among SRS residents. Additionally, living in a quality neighborhood and demonstrating a willingness to accept health risks for economic gain strongly abated heightened risk perceptions.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb01125.x
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    Evaluation of Atmospheric Transport Models for Use in Phase I1 of the Historical Public Exposures Studies at the Rocky Flats Plant (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Five atmospheric transport models were evaluated for use in Phase I1 ofthe Historical Public Exposures Studies at the Rocky Flats Plant. Models included a simple straight-line Gaussian plume model (ISCST2), several integrated puff models (RATCHET, TRIAD, and INPUFF2), and a complex terrain mode (TRAC). Evaluations were based on how well model predictions compared with sulfur hexafluoride tracer measurements taken in the vicinity of Rocky Flats in February 1991. Twelve separate tracer experiments were conducted, eac lasting 9 hr and measured at 140 samplers in arcs 8 and 16 km from the release point at Rocky Flats. Four modeling objectives were defined based on the endpoints of the overall study: (1) the unpaired maximum hourly average concentration, (2) paired time-averaged concentration, (3) unpaired time-averaged concentration, and (4) arc-integrated concentration. Performance measures were used to evaluate models and focused on the geometric mean and standard deviation of the predicted-to-observed ratio and the correlation coefficient between predicted and observed concentrations. No one model consistently outperformed the others in all modeling objectives and performance measures. About 75% of the maximum hourly concentration predictions were within a factor of 5 of the observations. About 64% of the paired and 80% of the unpaired time-averaged model predictions were within a factor of 5 of theobservations. The overall performance of the RATCHET model was somewhat better than the other models. All models appeared to experience difficulty defining plume trajectories, which was attributed to the influence of multilayered flow initiated by terrain complexities and the diurnal flow patterns characteristic of the Colorado Front Range.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00428.x
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    Statistical Evaluation of Population Data for Calculation of Radioactive Material Transport Accident Risks (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Calculation of accident dose-risk estimates with the RADTRAN code requires input data describing the population likely to be affected by the plumeof radioactive material (RAM) released in a hypothetical transportation accident. In the existing model, population densities within 1/2 mile (0.8 km)of the route centerline are tabulated in three ranges (Rural, Suburban, andUrban). These population densities may be of questionable validity since the plume in the RADTRAN analysis is assumed to extend out to 120 km from thehypothetical accident site. We present a GIs-based population model which accounts for the actual distribution of population under a potential plume, and compare accident-risk estimates based on the resulting population densities with those based on the existing model. Results for individual points along a route differ greatly, but the cumulative accident risks for a sample route of a few hundred kilometers are found to be comparable, if not identical. We conclude, therefore, that for estimation of aggregate accident risks over typical routes of several hundred kilometers, the existing, simpler RADTRAN model is sufficiently detailed and accurate.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00432.x
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    Editorial on the Nugget Papers (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00438.x
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    Challenges to the Acceptance of Probabilistic Risk Analysis (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: This paper discusses a number of the key challenges to the acceptance and aplication of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). Those challenges include:(a) the extensive reliance on subjective judgment in PRA, requiring the development of guidance for the use of PRA in risk-informed regulation, and possibly the development of “robust” or “reference” prior distributions to minimize the reliance on judgment; and (b) the treatment of human perfor-mance in PRA, including not only human errorperse but also management and organizational factors more broadly. All of these areas are seen as presentinginteresting research challenges at the interface between engineering and other disciplines.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00440.x
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    Bayesian Forecasting via Deterministic Model (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Rational decision making requires that the total uncertainty about a variate of interest (a predictand) be quantified in terms of a probability distribution, conditional on all available information and knowledge. Supposethe state-of-knowledge is embodied in a deterministic model, which is imperfect and outputs only an estimate of the predictand. Fundamentals are presented of two Bayesian methods for producing a probabilistic forecast via anydeterministic model. The Bayesian Processor of Forecast (BPF) quantifies the total uncertainty in terms of a posterior distribution, conditional on model output. The Bayesian Forecasting System (BFS) decomposes the total uncertainty into input uncertainty and model uncertainty, which are characterized independently and then integrated into a predictive distribution. The BFS is compared with Monte Carlo simulation and “ensemble forecasting” technique, none of which can alone produce a probabilistic forecast that quantifies the total uncertainty, but each can serve as a component of the BFS.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00443.x
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    A Risk Assessment Method for Biological Introductions (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: This article describes an application of a method for assessing risks associated with the introduction of an organism into a new environment. The test organism was a binucleate Rhizoctonia fungal isolate that has potential for commercial development as a biological control agent for damping-off diseases in bedding plants. A test sample of host plant species was selected using the centrifugal phylogenetic host range principles, but with an emphasis on economic species. The effect of the fungus on the plant was measured for each species and expressed on a logarithmic scale. The effects on weights of shoots and roots per container were not normally distributed, nor were the effects on the number of plants standing (those which survived). Statements about the effect on the number standing and the shoot weight per container involved using the observed (empirical) distribution. This is illustrated with an example. Problems were encountered in defining the population of species at risk, and in deciding how this population should be formally sampled. The limitations of the method are discussed.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00410.x
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    Heuristic-Systematic Information Processing and Risk Judgment (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: The heuristic-systematic information processing model (HSM) holds that individuals will use one or both of these modes of information processing when attempting to evaluate information in order to arrive at a judgment. Systematic processing is defined by effortful scrutiny and comparison of information, whereas heuristic processing is defined by the use of cues to amve more easily at a judgment. Antecedents to the two processing modes include information sufficiency, motivation, and self-efficacy. Structural equation modeling is used to examine competing configuration of this model and to evaluate the model as appropriate for predicting risk judgment. The model also is evaluated across three groups that vary with respect to their level of concern. These analyses are executed within a case study involving an epidemiological investigation of a suspected cancer cluster. The analysis confirms the HSM's theoretically proposed structure and shows it to be a useful vehicle for evaluating risk judgment. In the overall analysis, antecedent variables generally function as specified by theory. Systematic processing is predicted by greater motivation. Heuristic processing is predicted by information sufficiency. Self-efficacy is a significant predictor of both processing modes. And heuristic processing is shown to be associated with judgment of less risk. However, when the analysis is contrasted across three groups (those concerned about cancer, not concerned and uncertain) it is shown that the model is significantly more robust for the uncertain group. This finding may have implications for the use of the HSM in risk research specifically, and in field research generally.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00415.x
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    Factors in Exposure Assessment: Ethnic and Socioeconomic Differences in Fishing and Consumption of Fish Caught along the Savannah River (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: South Carolina has issued fish consumption advisories for the Savannah River based on mercury and radionuclide levels. We examine differences in fishing rates and fish consumption of 258 people interviewed while fishing along the Savannah River, as a function of age, education, ethnicity, employment history, and income, and test the assumption that the average consumption of fish is less than the recreational value of 19 kg/year assumed by risk assessors. Ethnicity and education contributed significantly to explaining variations in number of fish meals per month, serving size, and total quantity of fish consumed per year. Blacks fished more often, ate more fish meals of slightly larger serving sizes, and consumed more fish per year than did Whites. Although education and income were correlated, education contributed most significantly to behavior; people who did not graduate from high school ate fish more often, ate more fish per year, and ate more whole fish than people who graduated from high school. Computing consumption of fish for each person individually indicates that (1) people who eat fish more often also eat larger portions, (2) a substantial number of people consume more than the amount of fish used to compute risk to recreational fishermen, (3) some people consume more than the subsistence level default assumption (50 kglyear) and (4) Blacks consume more fish per year than Whites, putting them at greater risk from contaminants in fish. Overall, ethnicity, age, and education contributed to variations in fishing behavior and consumption.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00418.x
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    Methods for Detecting and Estimating Population Threshold Concentrations for Air Pollution-Related Mortality with Exposure Measurement Error (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: The association between daily fluctuations in ambient particulate matter and daily variations in nonaccidental mortality have been extensively investigated. Although it is now widely recognized that such an association exists, the form of the concentration-response model is still in question. Linear, no threshold and linear threshold models have been most commonly examined. In this paper we considered methods to detect and estimate threshold concentrations using time series data of daily mortality rates and air pollution concentrations. Because exposure is measured with error, we also considered the influence of measurement error in distinguishing between these two completing model specifications. The methods were illustrated on a 15-year daily time series of nonaccidental mortality and particulate air pollution data in Toronto, Canada. Nonparametric smoothed representations of the association between mortality and air pollution were adequate to graphically distinguish between these two forms. Weighted nonlinear regression methods for relative risk models were adequate to give nearly unbiased estimates of threshold concentrations even under conditions of extreme exposure measurement error. The uncertainty in the threshold estimates increased with the degree of exposure error. Regression models incorporating threshold concentrations could be clearly distinguished from linear relative risk models in the presence of exposure measurement error. The assumption of a linear model given that a threshold model was the correct form usually resulted in overestimates in the number of averted premature deaths, except for low threshold concentrations and large measurement error.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00423.x
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    Who Lives Near Coke Plants and Oil Refineries? An Exploration of the vironmental Inequity Hypothesis (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Facility-specific information on pollution was obtained for 36 coke plants and 46 oil refineries in the United States and matched with information on populations surrounding these 82 facilities. These data were analyzed to determine whether environmental inequities were present, whether they were more economic or racial in nature, and whether the racial composition of nearby communities has changed significantly since plants began operations. The Census tracts near coke plants have a disproportionate share of poor and nonwhite residents. Multivariate analyses suggest that existing inequities are primarily economic in nature. The findings for oil refineries are not strongly supportive of the environmental inequity hypothesis. Rank ordering of facilities by race, poverty, and pollution produces limited (although not consistent) evidence that the more risky facilities tend to be operating in communities with above-median proportions of nonwhite residents (near coke plants) and Hispanic residents (near oil refineries). Over time, the racial makeup of many communities near facilities has changed significantly, particularly in the case of coke plants sited in the early 1900s. Further risk-oriented studies of multiple manufacturing facilities in various industrial sectors of the economy are recommended.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00398.x
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    Fundamentals of Health Risk Assessment. Use, Derivation, Validity and Limitations of Safety Indices (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: We investigated the way results of human health risk assessments are used, and the theory used to describe those methods, sometimes called the “NAS paradigm.” Contrary to a key tenet of that theory, current methods have strictly limited utility. The characterizations now considered standard, Safety Indices such as “Acceptable Daily Intake,”“Reference Dose,” and so on, usefully inform only decisions that require a choice between two policy alternatives (e.g., approve a food additive or not), decided solely on the basis of a finding of safety. Riskis characterized as the quotient of one of these Safety Indices divided by an estimate of exposure: a quotient greater than one implies that the situation may be considered safe. Such decisions are very widespread, both in the U. S. federal government and elsewhere. No current method is universal; different policies lead to different practices, for example, in California's “Proposition 65,” where statutory provisions specify some practices. Further, an important kind of human health risk assessment is not recognized by this theory: this kind characterizes risk as likelihood of harm, given estimates of exposure consequent to various decision choices. Likelihood estimates are necessary whenever decision makers have many possible decision choices and must weigh more than two societal values, such as in EPA's implementation of “conventional air pollutants.” These estimates can not be derived using current methods; different methods are needed. Our analysis suggests changes needed in both the theory and practice of human health risk assessment, and how what is done is depicted.
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    Estimating Noncancer Uncertainty Factors: Are Ratios NOAELs Informative? (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: The prominent role of animal bioassay evidence in environmental regulatory decisions compels a careful characterization of extrapolation uncertainties. In noncancer risk assessment, uncertainty factors are incorporated to account for each of several extrapolations required to convert a bioassay outcome into a putative subthreshold dose for humans. Measures of relative toxicity taken between different dosing regimens, different endpoints, or different species serve as a reference for establishing the uncertainty factors. Ratios of no observed adverse effect levels (NOAELs) have been used for this purpose; statistical summaries of such ratios across sets of chemicals are widely used to guide the setting of uncertainty factors. Given the poor statistical properties of NOAELs, the informativeness of these summary statistics is open to question. To evaluate this, we develop an approach to “calibrate” the ability of NOAEL ratios to reveal true properties of a specified distribution for relative toxicity. A priority of this analysis is to account for dependencies of NOAEL ratios on experimental design and other exogenous factors. Our analysis of NOAEL ratio summary statistics finds (1) that such dependencies are complex and produce pronounced systematic errors and (2) that sampling error associated with typical sample sizes (50 chemicals) is nonnegligible. These uncertainties strongly suggest that NOAEL ratio summary statistics cannot be taken at face value; conclusions based on such ratios reported in well over a dozen published papers should be reconsidered.
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    A Comparison of Regulatory Implications of Traditional and Exact Two-Stage Dose-Response Models (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: We compare the regulatory implications of applying the traditional (linearized) and exact two-stage dose-response models to animal carcinogenic data. We analyze dose-response data from six studies, representing five different substances, and we determine the “goodness- of-fit” of each model as well as the 95% confidence lower limit ofthe dose corresponding to a target excess risk of 10-5 (the target risk doseTRD). For the two concave datasets, we find that the exact model gives a substantially better fit to the data than the traditional model, and that the exact model gives aTRD that is an order of magnitude lower than that given by the traditional model. In the other cases, the exact model gives a fit equivalent to or better than the traditional model. We also show that although the exact two-stage model may exhibit dose-response concavity at moderate dose levels, it is always linear or sublinear, and never supralinear, in the low-dose limit. Because regulatory concern is almost always confined to the low-dose region extrapolation, supralinear behavior seems not to be of regulatory concern in the exact two-stage model. Finally, we find that when performing this low-dose extrapolation in cases of dose-response concavity, extrapolating the model fit leads to a more conservative TRD than taking a linear extrapolation from 10% excess risk. We conclude with a set of recommendations.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00382.x
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    Mixed Levels of Uncertainty in Complex Policy Models (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: The characterization and treatment of uncertainty poses special challenges when modeling indeterminate or complex coupled systems such as those involved in the interactions between human activity, climate and the ecosystem. Uncertainty about model structure may become as, or more important than, uncertainty about parameter values. When uncertainty grows so large that prediction or optimization no longer makes sense, it may still be possible to use the model as a “behavioral test bed” to examine the relative robustness of alternative observational and behavioral strategies. When modelsmust be run into portions of their phase space that are not well understood, different submodels may become unreliable at different rates. A common example involves running a time stepped model far into the future. Several strategies can be used to deal with such situations. The probability of model failure can be reported as a function of time. Possible alternative “surprises” can be assigned probabilities, modeled separately, and combined. Finally, through the use of subjective judgments, one may be able to combine, and over time shift between models, moving from more detailed to progressively simpler order-of-magnitude models, and perhaps ultimately, on to simple bounding analysis.
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    Decision-Making with Heterogeneous Sources of Information (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: In any model the values of estimates for various parameters are obtained from different sources each with its own level of uncertainty. When the probability distributions of the estimates are obtained as opposed to point values only, the measurement uncertainties in the parameter estimates may be addressed. However, the sources used for obtaining the data and the models used to select appropriate distributions are of differing degrees of uncertainty. A hierarchy of different sources of uncertainty based upon one's ability to validate data and models empirically is presented. When model parameters are aggregated with different levels of the hierarchy represented, this implies distortion or degradation in the utility and validity of the models used. Means to identify and deal with such heterogeneous data sourcesare explored, and a number of approaches to addressing this problem is presented. One approach, using Range/confidence Estimates coupled with an Information Value Analysis Process, is presented as an example.
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    Methods for Characterizing Variability and Uncertainty: Comparison of Bootstrap Simulation and Likelihood-Based Approaches (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Variability arises due to differences in the value of a quantity among different members of a population. Uncertainty arises due to lack of knowledge regarding the true value of a quantity for a given member of a population. We describe and evaluate two methods for quantifying both variability and uncertainty. These methods, bootstrapsimulation and a likelihood-based method, are applied to three datasets. The datasetsinclude a synthetic sample of 19 values from a Lognormal distribution, a sample of nine values obtained from measurements of the PCB concentration in leafy produce, and asample of five values for the partitioning of chromium in the flue gas desulfurization system of coal-fired power plants. For each of these datasets, we employ the two methods to characterize uncertainty in the arithmetic mean and standard deviation, cumulative distribution functions based upon fitted parametric distributions, the 95th percentile of variability, and the 63rd percentile of uncertainty for the 81st percentile of variability. The latter is intended to show that it is possible to describe anypoint within the uncertain frequency distribution by specifying an uncertainty percentile and a Variability percentile. Using the bootstrap method, we compare results based upon use of the method of matching moments and the method of maximum likelihood for fitting distributions to data. Our results indicate that with only 5-19 data pointsas in the datasets we have evaluated, there is substantial uncertainty based upon random sampling error. Both the boostrap and likelihood-based approaches yield comparable uncertainty estimates in most cases.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00393.x
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    International Terrorism and Weapons of Mass Destruction (1998)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 18 (1998), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1998.tb01111.x
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  • 95
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    Ecological and Economic Risk Analysis of Everglades: Phase I Restoration Alternatives (1998)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 18 (1998), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Evaluating alternatives for restoring the Everglades involves analysis of a complex ecological and economic system for which current knowledge is limited. Uncertain benefits and impacts are analyzed probabilistically in this paper, following otherwise accepted principles of net present value (NPV) analysis. Ecological benefits and impacts were considered in monetary terms. Probabilities for selected uncertain parameters were found by maximizing entropy. The first ecological risk conceptual model for the Everglades ecosystem was developed to show ecological interactions. “Current Plans” for restoration involve discharge of phosphorus-enriched water from artificial wetlands to relatively pristine Everglades marshes for 3–10 years, risking conversion of the ecosystem to a eutrophic cattail marsh. For two of the three areas studied, alternative “Bypass Plans” were shown to avoid the loss of up to 3000 acres of sawgrass marsh at a cost that is probabilistically justified by the value of the ecosystem preserved. Sensitivity of the results to projected ecological changes, eutrophic marsh valuation, natural marsh valuation, and future values as represented in the discount rate, was examined.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1998.tb01118.x
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  • 96
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    Presenting Results from Model Based Studies to Decision-Makers: Can Sensitivity Analysis Be a Defogging Agent? (1998)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 18 (1998), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: The motivation of the present work is to provide an auxiliary tool for the decision-maker (DM) faced with predictive model uncertainty. The tool is especially suited for the allocation of R&Dresources. When taking decisions under uncertainties, making use of the output from mathematical or computational models, the DM might be helped if the uncertainty in model predictions be decomposed in a quantitative-rather than qualitativefashion, apportioning uncertainty according to source. This would allow optimal use of resources to reduce the imprecision in the prediction. For complex models, such a decomposition of the uncertainty into constituent elements could be impractical as such, due to the large number of parameters involved. If instead parameters could be grouped into logical subsets, then the analysis could be more useful, also because the decision maker might likely have different perceptions (and degrees of acceptance) for different kinds of uncertainty. For instance, the decomposition in groups could involve one subset of factors for each constituent module of the model; or one set for the weights, and one for the factors in a multicriteria analysis; or phenomenological parameters of the model vs. factors driving the model configuratiodstructure aggregation level, etc.); finally, one might imagine that a partition of the uncertainty could be sought between stochastic (or aleatory) and subjective (or epistemic) uncertainty. The present note shows how to compute rigorous decomposition of the output's variance with grouped parameters, and how this approach may be beneficial for the efficiency and transparency of the analysis.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1998.tb01122.x
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  • 97
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    Electronic Resource
    An Approach to Vulnerability Analysis of Complex Industrial Systems (1998)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 18 (1998), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: The concept of vulnerability of complex industrial systems is defined and discussed in relation to risk and system survivability. The discussion is illustrated by referring to a number of previous industrial accidents. The various risk factors, or threats, influencing an industrial system's vulnerability are classified and discussed. Both internal and external threats are covered. The general scope of vulnerability analysis is compared to traditional risk analysis approaches and main differences are illustrated. A general procedure for vulnerability analysis in two steps, including building of scenarios and preparation of relevant worksheets, is described and discussed.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1998.tb00367.x
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  • 98
    Electronic Resource
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    Reservations on “ASME Risk-Based Inservice Inspection and Testing: An Outlook to the Future” (1998)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 18 (1998), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1998.tb00356.x
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  • 99
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Risk Analysis and Management of Dam Safety (1998)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 18 (1998), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: The current safety criteria for a high hazard dam focus on protecting the dam during a large flood. While protecting the dam does help to protect downstream people and property, the two objectives are not the same. Instead, the criteria should focus on lowering property damage (including damage to the dam) and preventing flood deaths.High hazard dams must survive a design flood in the current safety criteria. However, experts don't agree on the size of the peak flow that meets this criteria.Statistical hydrologists have proposed an alternative to using professional judgment to specify the design flood. Unfortunately, peak flow distributions cannot be estimated with confidence for extreme floods given available data.A major safety goal is to prevent deaths from floods. Preventing deaths is a major reason for constructing the spillway to handle extreme floods so that the dam doesn't fail due to overtopping. However, even if the dam doesn't fail, the spilled floods could cause many deaths. A better approach is to warn people to get them out of harm's way if a flood is coming.Retrofitting existing dams that could pass a “probable maximum flood” (PMF) when built is almost never a good use of funds. Instead, funds would be spent better by focusing on preventing damage from small floods, lowering the damage from medium-sized floods, and warning people in the event of a flood that could pose risks to life.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1998.tb00360.x
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  • 100
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    Dynamic Risk Management Systems: Hybrid Architecture and Offshore Platform Illustration (1998)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 18 (1998), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: This paper describes and illustrates the architecture of computer-based Dynamic Risk Management Systems (DRMS) designed to assist real-time risk management decisions for complex physical systems, for example, engineered systems such as offshore platforms or medical systems such as patient treatment in Intensive Care Units. A key characteristic of the DRMSs that we describe is that they are hybrid, combining the powers of Probabilistic Risk Analysis methods and heuristic Artificial Intelligence techniques. A control module determines whether the situation corresponds to a specific rule or regulation, and is clear enough or urgent enough for an expert system to make an immediate recommendation without further analysis of the risks involved. Alternatively, if time permits and if the uncertainties justify it, a risk and decision analysis module formulates and evaluates options, including that of gathering further information. This feature is particularly critical since, most of the time, the physical system is only partially observable, i.e., the signals observed may not permit unambiguous characterization of its state. The DRMS structure is also dynamic in that, for a given time window (e.g., 1 day or 1 hour), it anticipates the physical system's state (and, when appropriate, performs a risk analysis) accounting for its evolution, its mode of operations, the predicted external loads and problems, and the possible changes in the set of available options. Therefore, we specifically address the issue of dynamic information gathering for decision-making purposes. The concepts are illustrated focusing on the risk and decision analysis modules for a particular case of real-time risk management on board offshore oil platforms, namely of two types of gas compressor leaks, one progressive and one catastrophic. We describe briefly the DRMS proof-of-concept produced at Stanford, and the prototype (ARMS) that is being constructed by Bureau Veritas (Paris) based on these concepts.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1998.tb00363.x
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