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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2021-03-15
    Description: In a recent work we computed the relative frequencies with which strong shocks (4.0≤Mw〈5.0), widely felt by the population were followed in the same area by potentially destructive main shocks (Mw≥5.0) in Italy. Assuming the stationarity of the seismic release properties, such frequencies can be tentatively used to estimate the probabilities of potentially destructive shocks after the occurrence of future strong shocks. This allows us to set up an alarm-based forecasting hypothesis related to strong foreshocks occurrence. Such hypothesis is tested retrospectively on the data of a homogenized seismic catalogue of the Italian area against a purely random hypothesis that simply forecasts the target main shocks proportionally to the space-time fraction occupied by the alarms. We compute the latter fraction in two ways a) as the ratio between the average time covered by the alarms in each area and the total duration of the forecasting experiment (60 years) and b) as the same ratio but weighted by the past frequency of occurrence of earthquakes in each area. In both cases the overall retrospective performance of our forecasting algorithm is definitely better than the random case. Considering an alarm duration of three months, the algorithm retrospectively forecasts more than 70% of all shocks with Mw5.5 occurred in Italy from 1960 to 2019 with a total space-time fraction covered by the alarms of the order of 2%. Considering the same space-time coverage, the algorithm is also able to retrospectively forecasts more than 40% of the first main shocks with Mw5.5 of the seismic sequences occurred in the same time interval. Given the good reliability of our results, the forecasting algorithm is set and ready to be tested also prospectively, in parallel to other ongoing procedures operating on the Italian territory.
    Description: This paper benefitted from funding provided by the European Union within the ambit of the H2020 project RISE (No. 821115), which in particular fully financed the PhD grant of one of the authors (E.B.).
    Description: Published
    Description: 1192–1206
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Earthquake interaction ; Statistical seismology ; forecasting, ; prediction ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2021-03-24
    Description: On October 27, 2017, an Mw 4 earthquake occurred close to the municipality of Montesano sulla Marcellana, less than 10 km external to the concession of the largest European onshore hydrocarbon reservoir—the Val d’Agri oilfield (Southern Italy). Being a weak event located outside the extended monitoring domain of the industrial concession, the relevance of this earthquake and the possible links with the hydrocarbon exploitation were not extensively discussed. Actually, the analysis of shallow seismic events close to subsurface exploitation domains plays a significant role in the definition of key parameters in order to discriminate between natural, triggered, and induced seismicity, especially in tectonically active regions. The study of weak-to-moderate earthquakes can improve the characterization of the potentially destructive seismic hazard of this particular area, already struck by M 〉 6.5 episodes in the past. In this work, we analyze the source parameters of this Mw 4 earthquake by applying advanced seismological techniques to estimate the uncertainties derived from the moment tensor inversion and identify plausible directivity effects. The moment tensor is dominated by a NW–SE oriented normal faulting with a centroid depth of 14 km. A single ML 2.1 aftershock was recorded and used as the empirical Green’s function to calculate the apparent source time function for the mainshock. Apparent durations (in the range 0.11–0.21 s, obtained from S-waves) define an azimuthal pattern, which reveals an asymmetric bilateral rupture with 70% of the rupture propagation in the N310°Wdirection, suggesting a rupture plane dipping to the SW. Our results tally with the activation of a deeper fault segment associated with the Eastern Agri Fault System close to the basement as the origin of the Montesano earthquake. Finally, the Coulomb stress rate induced by depletion of the oilfield is calculated to quantify the trigger potential estimated for the Montesano earthquake yielding relatively low probabilities below 10%. Our analyses point toward the conclusion that the Mw 4 event was more likely due to the local natural tectonic stress, rather than induced or triggered by the long-term hydrocarbon extraction in the Val d’Agri oilfield.
    Description: Published
    Description: 617794
    Description: 3T. Fisica dei terremoti e Sorgente Sismica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: earthquake source ; induced seismicity ; directivity ; triggered earthquake ; Val d’Agri oilfield ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2021-05-12
    Description: In order to monitor temporal and spatial crustal activities associated with earthquakes, ground- and satellite-based monitoring systems have been installed in China since the 1990s. In recent years, the correlation between monitoring strain anomalies and local major earthquakes has been verified. In this study, we further evaluate the possibility of strain anomalies containing earthquake precursors by using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) prediction. First, strain network anomalies were extracted in the borehole strain data recorded in Western China during 2010–2017. Then, we proposed a new prediction strategy characterized by the number of network anomalies in an anomaly window, Nano, and the length of alarm window, Talm. We assumed that clusters of network anomalies indicate a probability increase of an impending earthquake, and consequently, the alarm window would be the duration during which a possible earthquake would occur. The Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) between true predicted rate, tpr, and false alarm rate, fpr, is measured to evaluate the efficiency of the prediction strategies. We found that the optimal strategy of short-term forecasts was established by setting the number of anomalies greater than 7 within 14 days and the alarm window at one day. The results further show the prediction strategy performs significantly better when there are frequent enhanced network anomalies prior to the larger earthquakes surrounding the strain network region. The ROC detection indicates that strain data possibly contain the precursory information associated with major earthquakes and highlights the potential for short-term earthquake forecasting.
    Description: National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant 41974084 Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) of Japan, under its observation and Research Program for Prediction of Earthquakes and Volcanic Eruptions.
    Description: Published
    Description: 515
    Description: 7T. Variazioni delle caratteristiche crostali e precursori sismici
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: receiver operating characteristic ; a new prediction strategy ; frequent network anomalies ; prediction efficiency ; short-term earthquake forecasting ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2021-02-02
    Description: Abstract: In this paper we review and discuss the seismic method based on the analysis of seismic coda waves used in the last 10 years by the present authors and/or their co-workers, to produce separate images of intrinsic- and scattering attenuation in zones of peculiar geological interest (mainly volcanoes). Such separate attenuation images are considered by the scientific community as complementary to those from ordinary velocity-tomography and useful to improve the geological interpretation in volcanoes and in tectonically active zones. In this review we only list but do not discuss the most significative papers showing the images obtained, as we are focused to review the method and not the interpretation of data analysis. For sake of completeness, we anyway show also a new analysis applied to data from Stromboli volcano. We thus first introduce the physical model describing the seismogram Energy Envelope (derived from the solution of the Energy Transport integral Equation) and discuss its asymptotic approximations (Diffusion- and Single-scattering model). Then, we describe a numerical method to heuristically calculate the Sensitivity Kernels for the propagation of the scattered waves in the assumption of isotropic scattering. We attribute to these Sensitivity Kernels the physical meaning of probability that for a single source-receiver couple the measured attenuation parameters can be associated with the space coordinates. Based on this definition, the attenuation image can be obtained mapping the estimated attenuation parameters onto the zone under study weighting with the Sensitivity Kernels. We further discuss how to estimate the uncertainties associated with the results and report the list of the papers describing the (separated) scattering- and intrinsic-attenuation structures investigated using this approach.
    Description: Published
    Description: id304
    Description: 1T. Struttura della Terra
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: seismic scattering ; seismic imaging ; sensitivity kernels ; seismic attenuation ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2021-03-24
    Description: The 2016–17 central Italy earthquake sequence began with the first mainshock near the town of Amatrice on August 24 (MW 6.0), and was followed by two subsequent large events near Visso on October 26 (MW 5.9) and Norcia on October 30 (MW 6.5), plus a cluster of 4 events with MW 〉 5.0 within few hours on January 18, 2017. The affected area had been monitored before the sequence started by the permanent Italian National Seismic Network (RSNC), and was enhanced during the sequence by temporary stations deployed by the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology and the British Geological Survey. By the middle of September, there was a dense network of 155 stations, with a mean separation in the epicentral area of 6–10 km, comparable to the most likely earthquake depth range in the region. This network configuration was kept stable for an entire year, producing 2.5 TB of continuous waveform recordings. Here we describe how this data was used to develop a large and comprehensive earthquake catalogue using the Complete Automatic Seismic Processor (CASP) procedure. This procedure detected more than 450,000 events in the year following the first mainshock, and determined their phase arrival times through an advanced picker engine (RSNI-Picker2), producing a set of about 7 million P- and 10 million S-wave arrival times. These were then used to locate the events using a non-linear location (NLL) algorithm, a 1D velocity model calibrated for the area, and station corrections and then to compute their local magnitudes (ML). The procedure was validated by comparison of the derived data for phase picks and earthquake parameters with a handpicked reference catalogue (hereinafter referred to as ‘RefCat’). The automated procedure takes less than 12 hours on an Intel Core-i7 workstation to analyse the primary waveform data and to detect and locate 3000 events on the most seismically active day of the sequence. This proves the concept that the CASP algorithm can provide effectively real-time data for input into daily operational earthquake forecasts, The results show that there have been significant improvements compared to RefCat obtained in the same period using manual phase picks. The number of detected and located events is higher (from 84,401 to 450,000), the magnitude of completeness is lower (from ML 1.4 to 0.6), and also the number of phase picks is greater with an average number of 72 picked arrival for a ML = 1.4 compared with 30 phases for RefCat using manual phase picking. These propagate into formal uncertainties of ± 0.9km in epicentral location and ± 1.5km in depth for the enhanced catalogue for the vast majority of the events. Together, these provide a significant improvement in the resolution of fine structures such as local planar structures and clusters, in particular the identification of shallow events occurring in parts of the crust previously thought to be inactive. The lower completeness magnitude provides a rich data set for development and testing of analysis techniques of seismic sequences evolution, including real-time, operational monitoring of b-value, time-dependent hazard evaluation and aftershock forecasting.
    Description: Published
    Description: 555–571
    Description: 3T. Fisica dei terremoti e Sorgente Sismica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2021-04-13
    Description: Recently, a new strain rate map of Italy and the surrounding areas has been obtained by processing data acquired by the persistent scatterers (PS) of the synthetic aperture radar interferome- try (InSAR) satellites—ERS and ENVISAT—between 1990 and 2012. This map clearly shows that there is a link between the strain rate and all the shallow earthquakes (less than 15 km deep) that occurred from 1990 to today, with their epicenters being placed only in high strain rate areas (e.g., Emilia plain, NW Tuscany, Central Apennines). However, the map also presents various regions with high strain rates but in which no damaging earthquakes have occurred since 1990. One of these regions is the Apennine sector, formed by Sannio and Irpinia. This area represents one of the most important seismic districts with a well-known and recorded seismicity from Roman times up to the present day. In our study, we merged historical records with new satellite techniques that allow for the precise determination of ground movements, and then derived physical dimensions, such as strain rate. In this way, we verified that in Irpinia, the occurrence of new strong shocks—forty years after one of the strongest known seismic events in the district that occurred on the 23 November 1980, measuring Mw 6.8—is still a realistic possibility. The reason for this is that, from 1990, only areas characterized by high strain rates have hosted significant earthquakes. This picture has been also confirmed by analyzing the historical catalog of events with seismic completeness for magnitude M ≥ 6 over the last four centuries. It is easy to see that strong seismic events with magnitude M ≥ 6 generally occurred at a relatively short time distance between one another, with a period of 200 years without strong earthquakes between the years 1732 and 1930. This aspect must be considered as very important from various points of view, particularly for civil protection plans, as well as civil engineering and urban planning development.
    Description: Published
    Description: 168
    Description: 4T. Sismicità dell'Italia
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Irpinia ; seismic hazard ; strain rate ; GNSS ; InSAR ; earthquake ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2021-05-12
    Description: erratum paper
    Description: Published
    Description: 1090-1092
    Description: 1T. Struttura della Terra
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Theoretical seismology ; Seismic attenuation ; Seismic noise ; Surface waves ; Free oscillations ; Seismic interferometry ; 04.06. Seismology ; 04.01. Earth Interior
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2021-05-12
    Description: Ischia, a volcanic island located 18 miles SW of Naples (Southern Italy), is a densely populated active caldera that last erupted in AD 1302. Melt inclusions in phenocrysts of the Vateliero and Cava Nocelle shoshonite^latite eruptive products (6th to 4th centuries BC) constrain the structure and nature of the Ischia deep magmatic feeding system.Their geochemical characteristics make Ischia a natural borehole for probing the physico-chemical conditions of magma generation in mantle contaminated by slab-derived fluids or melts, largely dominated by CO2.Volatile concentrations in olivine-hosted melt inclusions require gas^melt equilibria at between 3 and 18 km depth. In agreement with what has already been demonstrated at the other neighboring Neapolitan volcanoes (Procida, Campi Flegrei caldera and Somma^Vesuvius volcanic complex), a major crystallization depth at 8^10 km has been identified.The analyzed melt inclusions provide clear evidence for CO2-dominated gas fluxing and consequent dehydration of magma batches stagnating at crustal discontinuities. Gas fluxing is further supported by selective enrichment in K owing to fluid-transfer during magma differentiation.This takes place under oxidized conditions (Fe3þ /Fe 0·3) that can be fixed by an equimolar proportion of divalent and trivalent iron in the melt if post-entrapment crystallization of the host olivine is discarded.The melt inclusion data, together with data from the literature for other Neapolitan volcanoes, show that magmatism and volcanism in the Neapolitan area, despite differences in composition and eruption dynamics, are closely linked to supercritical CO2-rich fluids. These fluids are produced by devolatilization of subducting terrigenous^pelagic metasediments and infiltrate the overlying mantle wedge, generate magmas and control their ascent up to eruption. Geochemical characteristics of Ischia and the other Neapolitan volcanoes reveal that the extent of fluid or melt contamination of the pre-subduction asthenospheric mantle wedge was similar among these volcanoes. However, differences in the isotopic compositions of the erupted magmas (more enriched in radiogenic Sr at Ischia, Campi Flegrei and Somma^Vesuvius with respect to Procida) and the amount of H2O in the plumbing system of these volcanoes (almost double at Ischia, Campi Flegrei and Somma^Vesuvius than at Procida) reflect the different flow-rates of deep slab-derived fluids or melts through the mantle wedge, which, in turn, control the amount of generated magma.The high bulk permeability of the lithosphere below Ischia, Campi Flegrei and Somma^Vesuvius, determined by the occurrence of intersecting NW^SE and NE^SW regional fault systems, favours fluid ascent and accumulation at crustal levels, with consequent larger magma production and storage than at Procida, located along the NE^SW system.
    Description: Published
    Description: 951-984
    Description: 2V. Struttura e sistema di alimentazione dei vulcani
    Description: 3V. Proprietà chimico-fisiche dei magmi e dei prodotti vulcanici
    Description: 4V. Processi pre-eruttivi
    Description: 6A. Geochimica per l'ambiente e geologia medica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: CO2-fluxing ; melt inclusions ; redox state ; trachybasalts
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2021-01-29
    Description: The first 5.3 years of magnetic data from three Swarm satellites have been systematically analyzed, and possible co-seismic magnetic disturbances in the ionosphere were investigated just a few minutes after the occurrence of large earthquakes. We preferred to limit the investigation to a subset of earthquakes selected in function of depth and magnitude. After a systematic inspection of the available data around (in time and space) the seismic events, we found 12 Swarm satellite tracks with co-seismic disturbances possibly produced by ten earthquakes from Mw5.6 to Mw6.9. The distance of the satellite to the earthquake epicenter corresponds to the measured distance-time arrival of the disturbance from the surface to the ionosphere, confirming that the identified disturbances are most likely produced by the seismic events. Secondly, we found a good agreement with a model that combined a propagation of the disturbance to the F2 ionospheric layer with an acoustic gravity wave at a velocity of about (2.2 0.3) km/s and a second faster phenomenon that transmits the disturbance from F2 layer to the Swarm satellite with a velocity of about (16 3) km/s as an electromagnetic scattering propagation.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1166
    Description: 7T. Variazioni delle caratteristiche crostali e precursori sismici
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: coseismic phenomena ; ionospheric phenomena ; 01.02. Ionosphere ; 04.05. Geomagnetism ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2021-04-14
    Description: The scaling of earthquake parameters with seismic moment and its interpretation in terms of self- similarity is still debated in the literature. We address this question by examining a worldwide compilation of corner frequency-based and elastic rebound theory (ERT)-based fault slip, area and stress drop values for earthquakes ranging in magnitude from -0.7 to 7.8. We find that corner frequency estimates of slip (and stress drop) scale differently than those inferred from the ERT approach, where the latter deviates from the generally accepted constant stress drop behavior of so- called self-similar scaling models. We also find that average slips from finite-source models are consistent with corner frequency scaling, whereas peak slip values are more consistent with the ERT scaling. The different scaling of corner frequency- and ERT-based estimates of slip and stress drop with earthquake size is interpreted in terms of heterogeneity of the rupture process. ERT-based estimates of stress drop decrease with seismic moment suggesting a self-affine behavior. Despite the inferred heterogeneity at all scales, we do not observe a clear effect on the Brune stress drop scaling with earthquake size.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1771–1781
    Description: 2T. Deformazione crostale attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Earthquake dynamics ; Earthquake source observations ; Dynamics and mechanics of faulting ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 11
    Publication Date: 2021-05-12
    Description: We have constructed a 3-D shear wave velocity (Vs) model for the crust and uppermost mantle beneath the Middle East using Rayleigh wave records obtained from ambient-noise cross-correlations and regional earthquakes. We combined one decade of data collected from 852 permanent and temporary broad-band stations in the region to calculate group-velocity dispersion curves. A compilation of 〉54 000 ray paths provides reliable group-velocity measurements for periods between 2 and 150 s. Path-averaged group velocities calculated at different periods were inverted for 2-D group-velocity maps. To overcome the problem of heterogeneous ray coverage, we used an adaptive grid parametrization for the group-velocity tomographic inversion. We then sample the period-dependent group-velocity field at each cell of a predefined grid to generate 1-D group-velocity dispersion curves, which are subsequently inverted for 1-D Vs models beneath each cell and combined to approximate the 3-D Vs structure of the area. The Vs model shows low velocities at shallow depths (5–10 km) beneath the Mesopotamian foredeep, South Caspian Basin, eastern Mediterranean and the Black Sea, in coincidence with deep sedimentary basins. Shallow high-velocity anomalies are observed in regions such as the Arabian Shield, Anatolian Plateau and Central Iran, which are dominated by widespread magmatic exposures. In the 10–20 km depth range, we find evidence for a band of high velocities (〉4.0 km s–1) along the southern Red Sea and Arabian Shield, indicating the presence of upper mantle rocks. Our 3-D velocity model exhibits high velocities in the depth range of 30–50 km beneath western Arabia, eastern Mediterranean, Central Iranian Block, South Caspian Basin and the Black Sea, possibly indicating a relatively thin crust. In contrast, the Zagros mountain range, the Sanandaj-Sirjan metamorphic zone in western central Iran, the easternmost Anatolian plateau and Lesser Caucasus are characterized by low velocities at these depths. Some of these anomalies may be related to thick crustal roots that support the high topography of these regions. In the upper mantle depth range, high-velocity anomalies are obtained beneath the Arabian Platform, southern Zagros, Persian Gulf and the eastern Mediterranean, in contrast to low velocities beneath the Red Sea, Arabian Shield, Afar depression, eastern Turkey and Lut Block in eastern Iran. Our Vs model may be used as a new reference crustal model for the Middle East in a broad range of future studies.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1349-1365
    Description: 1T. Struttura della Terra
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: 04.01. Earth Interior ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 12
    Publication Date: 2021-04-30
    Description: On 24 August 2016, a Mw 6.0 earthquake started a damaging seismic sequence in central Italy. The historical center of Amatrice village reached the XI degree (MCS scale) but the high vulnerability alone could not explain the heavy damage. Unfortunately, at the time of the earthquake only AMT station, 200 m away from the downtown, recorded the mainshock, whereas tens on temporary stations were installed afterwards. We propose a method to simulate the ground motion affecting Amatrice, using the FFT amplitude recorded at AMT, which has been modified by the standard spectral ratio (SSR) computed at 14 seismic stations in downtown. We tested the procedure by comparing simulations and recordings of two later mainshocks (Mw 5.9 and Mw 6.5), underlining advantages and limits of the technique. The strong motion variability of simulations was related to the proximity of the seismic source, accounted for by the ground motion at AMT, and to the peculiar site effects, described by the transfer function at the sites. The largest amplification characterized the stations close to the NE hill edge and produced simulated values of intensity measures clearly above one standard deviation of the GMM expected for Italy, up to 1.6 g for PGA.
    Description: The grant of A.T. is funded by INGV and Department of Sciences, Roma Tre University (MIUR-Italy Dipartimenti di Eccellenza, Art.1, Commi 314-337 Legge 232/2016).
    Description: Published
    Description: 186
    Description: 5T. Sismologia, geofisica e geologia per l'ingegneria sismica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: strong ground motion ; earthquake simulation ; near-source ; Amatrice earthquake ; seismic sequence ; site effects ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 13
    Publication Date: 2021-09-21
    Description: Passive seismic interferometry has become very popular in recent years in explorationgeophysics. However, it has not been widely applied in marine exploration. The purpose of thisstudy is to investigate the internal structure of a quasi-amagmatic portion of the Southwest IndianRidge by interferometry and to examine the performance and reliability of interferometry in marineexplorations. To reach this goal, continuous vertical component recordings from 43 ocean bottomseismometers were analyzed. The recorded signals from 200 station pairs were cross-correlated inthe frequency domain. The Bessel function method was applied to extract phase–velocity dispersioncurves from the zero crossings of the cross-correlations. An average of all the dispersion curveswas estimated in a period band 1–10 s and inverted through a conditional neighborhood algorithmwhich led to the final 1D S-wave velocity model of the crust and upper mantle. The obtained S-wavevelocity model is in good agreement with previous geological and geophysical studies in the regionand also in similar areas. We find an average crustal thickness of 7 km with a shallow layer of lowshear velocities and high Vp/Vs ratio. We infer that the uppermost 2 km are highly porous and maybe strongly serpentinized.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2811
    Description: 1T. Struttura della Terra
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: 04.06. Seismology ; 04.01. Earth Interior
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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