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  • 1
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Journal of paleolimnology 23 (2000), S. 49-56 
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Schlagwort(e): Trichoptera ; caddisflies ; late glacial ; Allerød ; Younger Dryas ; early Holocene ; Kråkenes ; palaeolimnology ; climate change
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Biologie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract Fossil Trichoptera (caddisfly) remains have been identified and quantitatively recorded in the late-glacial and early-Holocene sediments from Kråkenes Lake, western Norway. The sediment sequence was deposited between 12,300 and 8850 14C BP, covering the Allerød, Younger Dryas, and early-Holocene periods. The first Trichoptera were recorded at 12,000 14C BP, and during the Allerod a diverse assemblage of Limnephilidae taxa developed in the lake. By about 11,400 14C BP the relatively thermophilous Polycentropus flavomaculatus and Limnephilus rhombicus were present, suggesting that the summer water temperature was at least 17 °C. This temperature fell by 5-8 °C at the start of the Younger Dryas, and the thermophilous taxa were replaced within 20-40 14C yrs by Apatania spp., including the arctic-alpine A. zonella, suggesting a maximum summer water temperature of 10-12 °C. The Trichoptera assemblage was impoverished in numbers and in diversity over the next 200 yrs as the severe conditions of the Younger Dryas developed. As soon as temperatures rose and glacial meltwater and silt input ended about 700 14C yrs later, the resident Apatania assemblage expanded immediately, within 10 yrs. About 130 yrs later, thermophilous taxa replaced Apatania, and a much more diverse assemblage than in the Allerod occupied the varied habitats made available by the development of the Holocene lake ecosystem. The 130 yr delay may have been caused by a gradual temperature increase crossing a critical threshold, or by the time taken for thermophilous taxa to migrate from their Younger Dryas refugia.
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  • 2
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Schlagwort(e): Lake Baikal ; diatoms ; biogenic silica ; Eemian ; climate change ; Siberia
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Biologie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract The discussion on climatic instability observed in Greenland ice cores during the Eemian period (substage 5e) resulted in discovery of a pronounced mid-Eemian cooling event. We report that the mid-Eemian cooling is found for the first time in the biogenic silica climatic record and microfossil abundance record of Lake Baikal. Timing of this event in Lake Baikal correlates well with timing of the European pollen records and marine sedimentary records. The presence of the mid-Eemian cooling signal in the Lake Baikal record suggests a much closer link between Asian climate influenced by strong pressure fields over the vast land masses and the climate-controlling processes in the North Atlantic during interglacial periods, than what was generally believed. Furthermore, the Lake Baikal record suggests that after the mid-Eemian cooling, the climatic conditions returned close to the warmth of the 5e optimum and thus argues that the warm conditions of the last interglacial persisted in Siberia throughout 5e, and did not end with the mid-Eemian cooling as suggested by several published marine records.
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  • 3
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Journal of paleolimnology 24 (2000), S. 1-13 
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Schlagwort(e): Arctic ; Holocene ; paleohydrology ; paleolimnology ; climate change
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Biologie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract Although paleoclimatic research in the Arctic has most often focused on variations in temperature, the Arctic has also experienced changes in hydrologic balance. Changes in Arctic precipitation and evaporation rates affects soils, permafrost, lakes, wetlands, rivers, ice and vegetation. Changes in Arctic soils, permafrost, runoff, and vegetation can influence global climate by changing atmospheric methane and carbon dioxide concentrations, thermohaline circulation, and high latitude albedo. Documenting past variations in Arctic hydrological conditions is important for understanding Arctic climate and the potential response and role of the Arctic in regards to future climate change. Methods for reconstructing past changes in Arctic hydrology from the stratigraphic, isotopic, geochemical and fossil records of lake sediments are being developed, refined and applied in a number of regions. These records suggest that hydrological variations in the Arctic have been regionally asynchronous, reflecting the impacts of different forcing factors including orbitally controlled insolation changes, changes in geography related to coastal emergence, ocean currents, sea ice extent, and atmospheric circulation. Despite considerable progress, much work remains to be done on the development of paleohydrological proxies and their application to the Arctic.
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  • 4
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Schlagwort(e): diatoms ; climate change ; temperature ; pH ; transfer functions ; lake sediments
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Biologie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract The relationships between diatoms (Bacillariophyceae) in surface sediments of lakes and summer air temperature, pH and total organic carbon concentration (TOC) were explored along a steep climatic gradient in northern Sweden to provide a tool to infer past climate conditions from sediment cores. The study sites are in an area with low human impact and range from boreal forest to alpine tundra. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) constrained to mean July air temperature and pH clearly showed that diatom community composition was different between lakes situated in conifer-, mountain birch- and alpine-vegetation zones. As a consequence, diatoms and multivariate ordination methods can be used to infer past changes in treeline position and dominant forest type. Quantitative inference models were developed to estimate mean July air temperature, pH and TOC from sedimentary diatom assemblages using weighted averaging (WA) and weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS) regression. Relationships between diatoms and mean July air temperature were independent of lake-water pH, TOC, alkalinity and maximum depth. The results demonstrated that diatoms in lake sediments can provide useful and independent quantitative information for estimating past changes in mean July air temperature (R2 jack = 0.62, RMSEP = 0.86 °C; R2 and root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP) based on jack-knifing), pH (R2 jack = 0.61, RMSEP = 0.30) and TOC (R2 jack = 0.49, RMSEP = 1.33 mg l-1). The paper focuses mainly on the relationship between diatom community composition and mean July air temperature, but the relationships to pH and TOC are also discussed.
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  • 5
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Schlagwort(e): carbon storage ; lake sediment ; Holocene ; Canada ; climate change ; organic matter
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Biologie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract This paper reports a first estimate of the Holocene lake sediment carbon pool in Alberta, Canada. The organic matter content of lake sediment does not appear to depend strongly on lake size or other limnological parameters, allowing a simple first estimate in which we assume all Alberta lake sediment to have the same organic matter content. Alberta lake sediments sequester about 15 g C m-2 yr-1, for a provincial total of 0.23 Tg C yr-1, or 2.3 Pg C over the Holocene. Alberta lakes may represent as much as 1/1700 of total global, annual permanent carbon sequestration.
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  • 6
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Water resources management 14 (2000), S. 137-156 
    ISSN: 1573-1650
    Schlagwort(e): climate adaptation ; climate change ; droughtmanagement ; England and Wales water supply
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract In this article, the relationship between U.K. watercompanies' perceptions of past climatic extremes andtheir effect on resilience to future climatic changeis explored. Perceptions and activities related topast and future dry periods was investigated throughinterviews with managers at the ten major English andWelsh water supply/sewerage companies, and severalsmaller, water-only companies. Several of thecompanies report that they have observed a trendtowards drier summers in their regions, and a number of companies say that they have observed a changetowards more intensive rainfall of shorter duration. Recent supply measures in a number of regions havebeen aimed at improving storage and distributionrelated to the perceived change in rainfall intensity.A new requirement to incorporate regional climatechange scenarios in future supply assumptions appearsto have had little impact on planning in the region todate. Many water resource planners believe that thescenarios generated are too aggregated and do notencourage a precautionary approach to planning. Somemanagers believe that records of historical droughtconditions, such as experienced in 1933/1934 or 1995/1996,as worst-case scenarios provide a better basis for planning.
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  • 7
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 5 (2000), S. 361-377 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): carbon budget ; climate change ; desertification ; international environmental institutions ; land degradation ; research convergence ; science policy
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract Poor knowledge of links between desertification and globalclimate change is limiting funding from the Global Environment Facility foranti-desertification projects and realization of synergies between theConvention to Combat Desertification (CCD) and the FrameworkConvention on Climate Change (FCCC). Greater convergence betweenresearch in the two fields could overcome these limitations, improve ourknowledge of desertification, and benefit four areas of global climate changestudies: mitigation assessment; accounting for land cover change in thecarbon budget; land surface-atmosphere interactions; and climate changeimpact forecasting. Convergence would be assisted if desertification weretreated more as a special case in dry areas of the global process of landdegradation, and stimulated by: (a) closer cooperation between the FCCCand CCD; (b) better informal networking between desertification and globalclimate change scientists, e.g. within the framework of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Both strategies wouldbe facilitated if the FCCC and CCD requested the IPCC to provide ascientific framework for realizing the synergies between them.
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  • 8
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 5 (2000), S. 379-406 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; Ethiopia ; historical analogy ; migration ; vulnerability
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract Climate change has been presented as a likely trigger formigration of people, especially in dryland areas of less developed countries.The underlying research questions focus on the strength of adaptationcapacity of subsistence farmers in Northern Ethiopia, and evaluate historicalexperiences gained from drought-induced migration. Through a survey of104 peasants who had to migrant due to persistent drought, vulnerabilityto climate change has shown to be a complex issue, including themultiplicity of factors comprising a household environment. Still, to bevulnerable does not make someone a potential climate migrant, as peoplein marginal regions have developed a great variety of adaptationmechanisms, which strengthen their ability to cope with both, slow climaticchanges and extreme climatic events.
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  • 9
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Water resources management 14 (2000), S. 177-189 
    ISSN: 1573-1650
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; Sweden ; water balance models ; water resources
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract This article describes investigationsinto the effects of climate change on flow regimes oftwenty-five catchments (from 6 to 1293 km2) incentral Sweden. Hydrological responses of fifteenhypothetical climate change scenarios (e.g.combinations of ΔT = +1, +2 and +4 °C andΔP = 0, ± 10%, ± 20%) were simulated by a conceptual monthly water balance model. The results suggest thatall the hypothetical climate change scenarios wouldcause major decreases in winter snow accumulation.Significant increase of winter flow and decrease ofspring and summer runoff were resulted from mostscenarios. Attendant changes in actualevapotranspiration were also examined for all climatechange scenarios. Despite the changes in seasonaldistribution of evapotranspiration, the change inannual total evapotranspiration was relatively smallwith the maximum change of 23% compared with the 76%for mean annual snow water equivalent changes and 52%for mean annual runoff changes. Such hydrologicresults would have significant implications on futurewater resources design and management.
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  • 10
    ISSN: 1573-0662
    Schlagwort(e): aerosols ; cloud formation ; microanalysis ; ship tracks ; climate change
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Chemie und Pharmazie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract The chemical composition of individual particles 〉0.2 μm sampled duringthe MAST-experiment wereanalysed by SEM-EDX, in combination with multivariatetechniques. The objective of this experiment was toidentify the mechanisms responsible for themodification of marine stratocumulus clouds byemissions from ships and in a wider sense to provideinformation on the global processes involved inatmospheric modification of cloud albedo. Aerosolswere examined under different MBL pollution levels(clean, intermediately polluted and moderatelypolluted) in five different reservoirs: backgroundbelow-cloud and above-cloud aerosol; background clouddroplet residual particles; below-cloud ship plumeaerosol and ship track cloud droplet residualparticles.In this study a relation was provided between theaerosol emitted from the ship's stack to an effect incloud. Additionally, a large fraction of the ambientaerosol was found to be composed of organic materialor other compounds, consisting of low Z-elements,associated with chlorine. Their number fraction waslargest in clean marine boundary layers, and decreasedwith increasing pollution levels. The fraction of`transformed sea salt' (Na, Cl, S), on the other hand,increased with the pollution level in the MBL. Only20% of the particles fell within the detectable rangeof the analysis.
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  • 11
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Studia geophysica et geodaetica 44 (2000), S. 57-72 
    ISSN: 1573-1626
    Schlagwort(e): extreme events ; heat wave ; tropical day ; climate change
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Notizen: Abstract Heat waves (periods of extremely hot summer weather) in the region of south Moravia are in the focus of this study. The introduced definition consists of three requirements imposed on the period that is considered a heat wave: at least three days with T MAX ≥30.0°C must be observed; the mean T MAX over the whole period is at least 30.0°C; and T MAX must not drop below 25.0°C. To compare the severity of the individual heat waves, various characteristics (duration, number of tropical days, peak temperature, cumulative temperature excess, precipitation amount) are examined. The heat wave index HWI is defined to express the severity of heat waves in the most comprehensive way. An extraordinary heat wave occurred in July and August 1994; it lasted more than a month at several stations, while the duration of a typical heat wave is only 4 - 7 days. The extremely long unbroken period of tropical days, and even of days with T MAX ≥32.0°C, represents the most distinct feature of the severe 1994 heat wave. With regard to heat wave characteristics, the summer temperature exceptionality of the early 1990s is indubitable.
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  • 12
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Schlagwort(e): environmental magnetism ; lacustrine marl ; late Glacial ; climate change
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Biologie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract We present the results of mineral magnetic measurements and geochemical analyses of late Glacial sediments from two marl-precipitating lakes in the Northwest of England. Mineral magnetic assemblages dominated by detrital and/or authigenic ferrimagnetic minerals, and enhanced delivery of metal elements, characterise a lower (Oldest Dryas) and an upper (Younger Dryas) phase of catchment instability, with detrital clay and silt sedimentation. Magnetic mineral assemblages with lower concentrations of finer ferrimagnetic grains characterise the authigenic carbonate sediments (marls). The marls indicate both enhanced lake productivity and catchment stability in response to prevailing warm conditions during the Bølling - Allerød Interstadial. The Bølling - Allerød marl phase contains two short-term, low amplitude shifts characterised by changes in the concentration and the size of ferrimagnetic grains. These shifts may represent the Older Dryas and the Amphi-Atlantic Oscillation, short-lived Northern hemisphere climatic deteriorations. Overall, the results suggest that marl lakes are sensitive indicators of Lateglacial climatic change, and that these changes are readily identifiable through the use of mineral magnetic measurements.
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  • 13
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Schlagwort(e): Africa ; climate change ; conductivity ; diatoms ; Ethiopia ; Holocene ; lake levels ; palaeolimnology ; Rift Valley
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Biologie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract A 6,500-year diatom stratigraphy has been used to infer hydrochemical changes in Lake Awassa, a topographically closed oligosaline lake in the Ethiopian Rift Valley. Conductivity was high from ~6400-6200 BP, and from 5200-4000 BP, with two brief episodes of lower conductivity during the latter period. Although the timing of the conductivity changes is similar to the timing of lake-level change in the nearby Zwai-Shalla basin, their directions are the reverse of that expected from a climatic cause. Dissolution of the tephras which precede both phases of high conductivity cannot explain the increases in salinity, because rhyolitic tephras are only sparingly soluble. Instead, the pulsed input of groundwater made saline by the reaction of silicate minerals and volcanic glass with carbonic acid, formed from the solution of carbon dioxide degassed from magma under the Awassa Caldera, is suggested as a plausible mechanism for the observed change in lake chemistry. Diatom-inferred hydrochemistry cannot therefore be used to reconstruct climate change in Lake Awassa.
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  • 14
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Journal of oceanography 55 (1999), S. 197-205 
    ISSN: 1573-868X
    Schlagwort(e): Japan Sea ; Japan Sea Proper Water ; climate change ; long-term variation ; one-dimensional model
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract Observed potential temperatures and concentrations of dissolved oxygen are analyzed to elucidate their variations during the period from 1958 to 1996 at Stn. P (37°43′ N, 134°43′ E) and from 1965 to 1996 at Stn. H (40°30′ N, 137°40′ E) in the Japan Sea. At Stn. P, increases of the potential temperature for the period are found below 800 m depth with the largest value of 0.16 ± 0.09°C per century at 800 m depth. At Stn. H, the potential temperature increased below 500 m depth. The increase rate has the largest value of 0.50 ± 0.18°C per century at 500 m depth and it is 0.30 ± 0.09°C per century at 800 m depth. The concentrations of dissolved oxygen increased around 800 m depth at Stn. P. At Stn. H, they increased above 800 m depth. On the other hand, they decreased below 1200 m depth at both stations. The layer of the dissolved oxygen minimum has deepened in these decades. These features appearing in the distributions of temperature and dissolved oxygen are successively simulated by a vertical one-dimensional advection-diffusion model including consumption of dissolved oxygen and termination of the deep water supply. These results suggest that the supply of the Japan Sea Proper Water into the deep layer, which is cold and rich in dissolved oxygen, has been decreasing for the last four decades.
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  • 15
    ISSN: 1573-1650
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; deterministichydrological model ; sub-arctic watershed ; Canada
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract Watershed runoff modelling techniques were developed and applied for assessing climatic impacts, and tested for a watershed in the Northeast Pond River basin using atmospheric-change scenarios from a series of hypothetical scenarios. Results of this research strongly suggest that possible changes in temperature and precipitation caused by increases in atmospheric trace-gas concentrations could have major impacts on both the timing and magnitude of runoff and soil moisture in important natural resources areas. Of particular importance are predicted patterns of summer soil-moisture drying that are consistent across the entire range of tested scenarios. The decreases in summer soil moisture range from 10 to 50% for different scenarios. In addition, consistent changes were observed in the timing of runoff – specifically dramatic increases in winter runoff and decreases in summer runoff. These hydrologic results raise the possibility of major environmental and socio-economic difficulties and they will have significant implications for future water-resource planning and management.
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  • 16
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Water resources management 13 (1999), S. 369-382 
    ISSN: 1573-1650
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; general circulation models ; hydrological models.
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract Global atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) have been developed to simulate the present climate and used to predict future climatic change. While GCMs demonstrate significant skill at the continental and hemispheric spatial scales and incorporate a large proportion of the complexity of the global system, they are inherently unable to represent local subgrid-scale features and dynamics. The existing gap and the methodologies for narrowing the gap between GCMs' ability and the need of hydrological modelers are reviewed in this paper. Following the discussion of the advantages and deficiencies of various methods, the challenges for future studies of the hydrological impacts of climate change are identified.
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  • 17
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 4 (1999), S. 61-81 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; cost-benefit ; Hungary ; integrated assessment ; mitigation ; pollution ; discount rate
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract Few studies on measures for mitigation of damage caused by man-made emissions to the environment have tried to consider all major effects. We illustrate the importance of an integrated approach by estimating costs and benefits of a proposed energy saving program for Hungary, originally designed to reduce CO2 emissions. The dominant benefit of implementing the program is likely to be reduced health damage from local pollutants. Also reduced costs of material damage and to a lesser extent vegetation damage contribute to make the net benefit considerable. Compared to the reduction in these local and regional effects, the benefits from reducing greenhouse gases are likely to be minor. Since local effects in general occur much earlier after measures have been implemented than effects of increased emissions of greenhouse gases, inclusion of local effects makes evaluation of climate policy less dependent on the choice of discount rate. In our opinion, similar results are likely for many measures originally designed to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases particularly in some areas in developing countries with high local pollution levels. Main uncertainties in the analysis, e.g. in the relationships between damage and pollution level, are discussed.
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  • 18
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    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 4 (1999), S. 1-23 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; concentration limits ; discounted control costs ; Kyoto Protocol
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract Preliminary analysis based on an aggregate model of global carbon emissions suggests that constraining emissions to the levels that would be imposed by compliance with the results of the Kyoto negotiations can increase the discounted cost of ultimately limiting atmospheric concentrations. Kyoto targets can be either too restrictive or too permissive depending upon the (currently unknown) trajectory of carbon emissions over the near- to medium-term and the (as yet unspecified) concentration target that frames long-term policy. The discounted cost of meeting low concentration targets like 450 ppmv. is diminished by allowing large sinks and/or by imposing more restrictive near-term emissions benchmarks (even if only Annex B countries are bound by the Kyoto accord). Conversely, the cost of achieving high concentration targets like 650 ppmv. is diminished by disallowing sinks and/or by imposing less restrictive emissions benchmarks. Intermediate concentration targets like 550 ppmv. look like high concentration targets (favoring no sinks and expanded near-term emissions) along low emissions paths; but they look like low concentration targets (favoring the opposite) along high emissions paths. Emissions trajectories that lie above the median, but not excessively so, represent cases for which adjustments in the Kyoto emissions benchmarks and/or negotiated allowances for sinks have the smallest effect on the cost of mitigation.
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  • 19
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    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 4 (1999), S. 25-41 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): adaptation ; agriculture ; climate change ; Kazakhstan
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract Agriculture in Kazakhstan is sensitive to climate, and wheat yields could be reduced up to 70% under climate change. With the transition from a socialist economy to a free market economy, decisions are being made now that will affect Kazakhstan's ability to cope with climate change. A team of Kazakh and American researchers examined the cost-effectiveness and barriers to implementations of adaptation options for climate change. Twelve adaptation options that increase flexibility to respond to climate change were identified using a screening matrix. Four options, forecasting pest outbreaks, developing regional centers for preserving genetic diversity of seeds, supporting a transition to a free market, and reducing soil erosion through the use of changed farming practices, were examined. The Adaptation Decision Matrix (ADM) was then applied to estimate benefits using expert judgment (using an arbitrary numerical scale, not monetary values) and benefits estimates were compared to costs to determine cost-effectiveness. The ADM uses subjective measures of how well adaptation options meet policy objectives. Controlling soil erosion was estimated to have the highest benefits, but the high costs of implementation appears to make it relatively cost-ineffective. Supporting a transition to a free market was ranked as the most cost-effective measure, with regional centers second. However, use of different scales to quantify benefits or different weights can result in regional centers being more cost-effective than the transition to a free market. Regional centers was also judged to have fewer barriers to implementation than a transition to a free market. These results will be incorporated in Kazakhstan's National Action Plan. The ADM and other tools are relatively easy to apply, but are quite subjective and difficult to evaluate. The tools can be quite useful by decision makers to analyze advantages and disadvantages between different adaptation options, but should be supplemented with additional, particularly quantitative analysis.
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  • 20
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    Digitale Medien
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 4 (1999), S. 137-165 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): adaptation ; agriculture ; climate change ; decision-making ; variability
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract This work presents a framework for viewing agricultural adaptation, emphasizing the multiple spatial and temporal scales on which individuals and institutions process information on changes in their environment. The framework is offered as a means to gain perspective on the role of climate variability and change in agricultural adaptation, and developed for a case study of Australian agriculture. To study adaptation issues at the scale of individual farms we developed a simple modelling framework. The model highlights the decision making element of adaptation in light of uncertainty, and underscores the importance of decision information related to climate variability. Model results show that the assumption of perfect information for farmers systematically overpredicts adaptive performance. The results also suggest that farmers who make tactical planting decisions on the basis of historical climate information are outperformed by those who use even moderately successful seasonal forecast information. Analysis at continental scales highlights the prominent role of the decline in economic operating conditions on Australian agriculture. Examples from segments of the agricultural industry in Australia are given to illustrate the importance of appropriate scale attribution in adapting to environmental changes. In particular, adaptations oriented toward short time scale changes in the farming environment (droughts, market fluctuations) can be limited in their efficacy by constraints imposed by broad changes in the soil/water base and economic environment occuring over longer time scales. The case study also makes the point that adaptation must be defined in reference to some goal, which is ultimately a social and political exercise. Overall, this study highlights the importance of allowing more complexity (limited information, risk aversion, cross-scale interactions, mis-attribution of cause and effect, background context, identification of goals) in representing adaptation processes in climate change studies.
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  • 21
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 4 (1999), S. 199-213 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): adaptation ; climate change ; impact assessment ; response options ; vulnerability
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract This paper outlines what is meant by "adaptation" to climate change, and how it might be addressed in the IPCC Assessments. Two roles of adaptation in the climate change field are identified: adaptation as part of impact assessment (where the key question is: what adaptations are likely?), and adaptation as part of the policy response (where the central question is: what adaptations are recommended?). The concept of adaptation has been adopted in several fields including climate impact assessment and policy development, risk management, and natural hazards research. A framework for systematically defining adaptations is based on three questions: (i) adaptation to what? (ii) who or what adapts? and (iii) how does adaptation occur? The paper demonstrates that, for adaptation purposes, climate extremes and variability are integral parts of climate change, along with shifts in mean conditions. Attributes for differentiating adaptations include purposefulness, timing, temporal and spatial scope, effects, form and performance. The framework provides a guide for the treatment of adaptation in the IPCC assessments, both in the assessment of impacts and in the evaluation of adaptive policy options.
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  • 22
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 4 (1999), S. 227-237 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): adaptation ; climate change ; climate variability ; data ; climate applications ; El Niño ; UNFCCC
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract An extensive foundation of high quality data and information on the climate and on the biological, environmental and social systems affected by climate is required in order to understand the climate impact processes involved, to develop new adaptation practices, and to subsequently implement these practices. Experience of the impacts of current and past variability of climate and sea level is a prime source of information. Many practices are in use to reduce climate impacts, for example in engineering design, agricultural risk management and climate prediction services, though their roles as adaptations to climate change are not widely appreciated. While there are good data sets on some factors and in some regions, in many cases the databases are inadequate and there are few data sets on adaptation-specific quantities such as vulnerability, resilience and adaptation effectiveness. Current international action under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) pays little attention to adaptation and its information requirements. Furthermore there are trends toward reduced data gathering and to restrictions on access to data sets, especially arising from cost and commercialisation pressures. To effectively respond to the changes in climate that are now inevitable, governments will need to more clearly identify adaptation as a central feature of climate change policy and make a renewed shared commitment to collecting and freely exchanging the necessary data.
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  • 23
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 4 (1999), S. 239-252 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; coastal zones ; adaptation ; vulnerability ; IPCC Technical Guidelines
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract This paper evaluates the IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations with respect to the guidance offered for coastal-adaptation assessment. It appears that the IPCC Technical Guidelines focus strongly on implementation. This paper uses both conceptual and empirical information is used in this paper to show that coastal adaptation embraces more than selecting one of the "technical" options to respond to sea-level rise (retreat, accommodate or protect). Coastal adaptation is a more complex and iterative process with a series of policy cycles. To be effective, an expanded adapta-tion framework involving four steps is suggested, including (i) information collection and awareness raising; (ii) planning and design; (iii) implementation; and (iv) monitoring and evaluation. The incom-plete coverage of these four steps in existing coastal-adaptation assessments constrains the development of adaptation strategies that are supported by the relevant actors and integrated into existing management. Researchers and policy-makers are recommended to work together to establish a framework for adaptation that is integrated within current coastal management processes and practices and takes a broader view on the subject.
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  • 24
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 4 (1999), S. 283-293 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): natural catastrophes ; climate change ; changing extremes ; costs of climate ; change ; insurance
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract In the last few decades, the international insurance industry has been confronted with a drastic increase in the scope and frequency of great natural disasters. The trend is primarily attributable to the continuing steady growth of the world population and the increasing concentration of people and economic values in urban areas. An additional factor is the global migration of populations and industries into areas such as coastal regions, which are particularly exposed to natural hazards. The natural hazards themselves, on the other hand, are showing a change for the worse as many atmospheric extremes are strongly influenced by global warming. In addition to the problems the insurance industry has with regard to pricing, capacity and loss reserves, the assessment of insured liabilities, preventive planning and the proper adjustment of catastrophe losses are gaining importance. The present problems will be dramatically aggravated if the greenhouse predictions come true. The changing probability distributions of many processes in the atmosphere will force up the frequency and severity of heat waves, droughts, bush fires, tropical and extratropical cyclones, tornados, hailstorms, floods and storm surges in many parts of the world with serious consequences for all types of property insurance, apart from the consequences of the stratospheric ozone destruction for health and life insurance. Rates will have to be raised and in certain areas insurance cover will only be available after considerable restrictions have been imposed, as for example significant deductibles and low liability or loss limits. In areas of high insurance density the loss potential of individual catastrophes can reach a level at which the national and international insurance industries will run into serious capacity problems. Recent disasters showed the disproportionately high participation of reinsurers in extreme disaster losses and the need for more risk transparency if the insurance industry is to fulfil its obligations in an increasingly hostile environment.
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  • 25
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 4 (1999), S. 295-306 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): disasters ; storms ; floods ; droughts ; climate change
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract Extremes of climate and weather, storms, floods and droughts, require vigorous adaptation measures in a generally stable climate or in one that is rapidly changing. These adaptation measures, to reduce loss of life, human suffering and economic losses come under the heading "disaster loss mitigation". Since 1990 the United Nations' International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction has provided for international cooperation and information dissemination. Nevertheless, world-wide economic disaster losses in the 1990s have continued to show a rapid increase - and the increase for climate related disasters has been three to four times greater than those for geological disasters. Is some of this increased loss due to anthropogenic climate change? There is some evidence of increases in frequency of heavy rainfalls in a number of regions and of severe winter storms in the northern hemisphere. On the other hand, there is little global trend in frequency or intensity of tropical cyclones whose geographical distribution is more closely related to ENSO events. But is there a possibility that increases in intensity over the past few decades of El Niño and La Niña events are related to increased radiative forcing from greenhouse gases? Whatever the outcome of emerging research on extreme events in a changing climate, it is evident that climate adaptation through disaster mitigation measures is of increasing importance with growing populations in more vulnerable regions. Measures that must be supported vigorously include improved warning and preparedness systems, safer buildings, risk-averse land use planning, better protected urban infrastructure, and more resilient water supply systems, among others. Both national and international efforts must not be allowed to diminish after the end of the IDNDR in 1999. The task is only begun.
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  • 26
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 4 (1999), S. 343-361 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): adaptation ; climate change ; socioeconomic impacts ; Egypt
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract Assessment of the vulnerability and expected socioeconomic losses over the Nile delta coast due to the impact of sea level rise is carried out in details. Impacts of sea level rise over the Governorates of Alexandria and Port Said in particular, are evaluated quantitatively. Analysis of the results at Alexandria Governorate indicate that, if no action is taken, an area of about 30% of the city will be lost due to inundation. Almost 2 million people will have to abandon their homeland; 195,000 jobs will be lost and an economic loss of over $3.5 Billion is expected over the next century. At Port Said Governorate results indicate that beach areas are most severely affected (hence tourism), followed by urban areas. The agriculture sector is the least affected sector. It is estimated that the economic loss is over $ 2.0 Billion for 0.50 m SLR and may exceed $ 4.4 Billion for 1.25 m SLR. Options and costs of adaptation are analyzed and presented. Multi-criteria and decision matrix approaches, based on questionnaire surveys are carried out to identify priorities for the two cases. Analysis of these techniques of two options; the current policy (hard protection measures on some vulnerable areas) and no action (stopping these activities) have the lowest scores. Beach nourishment and integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) have the highest scores, however ICZM has high cost measures. The most cost-effective option is the land-use change, however with relatively very high cost measure. It is recommended that an ICZM approach be adopted since it provides a reasonable trade off between costs and cost effectiveness.
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  • 27
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    Earth, moon and planets 85-86 (1999), S. 99-113 
    ISSN: 1573-0794
    Schlagwort(e): Astronomic influence ; climate change ; Moon ; solar cycles ; weather
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Notizen: Abstract Popular beliefs on the effects of the Moon on the weather probably go back to when ancient civilisations followed a lunar calendar, and the Moon went from being a purely temporal reference to becoming a causal reference. The incoming heat flow on the Earth may vary slightly after solar activity. to and generate considerable effects. The light reflected from the Moon has also been hypothesised as a cause, but the associated energy is too small. The anomalistic period of the Moon (i.e., 27.5 days) coincides substantially with that of the sunspots found on the 17–18th parallel of the heliocentric latitude. Climatic modulation which lasts for around 27.5 days should be related to solar activity, which supplies energy with an amount of two orders of magnitude greater than the lunar-reflected energy. Another mechanism responsible for climatic variations is the redistribution of heat on the Earth. The Moon with the tides induces movement of the water masses of the oceans and with this there is a transport of heat. Semidiurnal lunar tides have been identified, although with modest impact, in the atmospheric pressure, the wind field and the precipitation. On a monthly time scale, variation of daily precipitation data shows that gravitational tides do indeed affect heavy rainfalls more than mean precipitation values. On the longer time scale, several authors have identified the 18.6-yr nutation cycle, which is clearly visible in several data analyses, but often it cannot be easily distinguished from the 19.9 Saturn–Jupiter cycle and the quasi-regular 22-yr double sunspot cycle which at times may be dominant. In the time scale of centuries, covering a number of periods with minimum solar activity, an analysis of meteorological data has demonstrated that only the Spörer Minimum (A.D. 1416–1534) was characterised by climatic anomalies., whereas the other periods had no singularities, or else the weak climate forcing was covered or masked by other factors, leaving the question still open. In practice, lunar and solar influences can be found and have been demonstrated with more or less the same level of confidence. Both have the same order of magnitude, and are generally weak, interacting, and being often masked by local effects.
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  • 28
    ISSN: 1573-515X
    Schlagwort(e): ammonium ; climate change ; drought ; groundwater table ; nitrate ; nitrous oxide ; wetland
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Chemie und Pharmazie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract Certain general circulation models predict that a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations will increase the frequency of summer drought in northern wetlands due to hotter, drier summers. There is currently much uncertainty as to how drought will affect emissions of the greenhouse gas, nitrous oxide, from wetlands. We have demonstrated that an eight centimetre drawdown of the water table in a gully mire does not significantly affect nitrous oxide emissions from this site. However, under a more extreme drought scenario carried out on peat monoliths, nitrous oxide emissions increased exponentially with a linear decrease in water table height. Drought caused a significant increase in nitrous oxide production below the water table but most of the total increase could be attributed to increased emissions above the water table. Results from an acetylene block experiment suggested that increased emissions were caused by increased nitrous oxide production from denitrification, rather than by increased production from nitrification. In the laboratory study, drought severity had no effect on peatwater nitrate concentrations below the water table, however, increasing drought severity decreased ammonium concentrations.
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  • 29
    ISSN: 1573-515X
    Schlagwort(e): ammonium ; climate change ; drought ; groundwater table ; nitrate ; nitrous oxide ; wetland
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Chemie und Pharmazie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract Certain general circulation models predict that a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations will increase the frequency of summer drought in northern wetlands due to hotter, drier summers. There is currently much uncertainty as to how drought will affect emissions of the greenhouse gas, nitrous oxide, from wetlands. We have demonstrated that an eight centimetre drawdown of the water table in a gully mire does not significantly affect nitrous oxide emissions from this site. However, under a more extreme drought scenario carried out on peat monoliths, nitrous oxide emissions increased exponentially with a linear decrease in water table height. Drought caused a significant increase in nitrous oxide productionbelow the water table but most of the total increase could be attributed to increased emissionsabove the water table. Results from an acetylene block experiment suggested that increased emissions were caused by increased nitrous oxide production from denitrification, rather than by increased production from nitrification. In the laboratory study, drought severity had no effect on peatwater nitrate concentrations below the water table, however, increasing drought severity decreased ammonium concentrations.
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  • 30
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    Studia geophysica et geodaetica 43 (1999), S. 201-222 
    ISSN: 1573-1626
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; GCM-based scenarios ; daily series of extreme and mean temperatures ; global radiation ; precipitation
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Notizen: Abstract Three-dimensional general circulation models (GCMs) are 'state-of-the-art' tools for projecting possible changes in climate. Scenarios constructed for the Czech Republic are based on daily outputs of the ECHAM-GCM in the central European region. Essential findings, derived from validating, procedures are summarized and changes in variables between the control and perturbed experiments are examined. The resulting findings have been used in selecting the most proper methods of generating climate change projections for assessing possible hydrological and agricultural impacts of climate change in selected exposure units. The following weather variables have been studied: Daily extreme temperatures, daily mean temperature, daily sum of global solar radiation, and daily precipitation amounts. Due to some discrepancies revealed, the temperature series for changed climate conditions (2×CO 2 ) have been created with the help of temperature differences between the control and perturbed runs, and the precipitation series have been derived from an incremental scenario based on an intercomparison of the GCMs' precipitation performance in the region. Solar radiation simulated by the ECHAM was not available and, therefore, it was generated using regression techniques relating monthly means of daily extreme temperatures and global radiation sums. The scenarios published in the paper consist of monthly means of all temperatures, their standard deviations, and monthly means of solar radiation and precipitation amounts. Daily weather series, the necessary input to impact models, are created (i) by the additive or multiplicative modification of observed weather daily series or (ii) by generating synthetic time series with the help of a weather generator whose parameters have been modified in accord with the suggested climate change scenarios.
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  • 31
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Schlagwort(e): Antarctica ; saline lakes ; weightedaveraging ; transfer function ; diatom analysis ; palaeolimnology ; climate change
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Biologie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract The relationship between surface sediment diatom assemblages and measured limnological variables in thirty-three coastal Antarctic lakes from the Vestfold Hills was examined by constructing a diatom-water chemistry dataset. Previous analysis of this dataset by canonical correspondence analysis revealed that salinity accounted for a significant amount of the variation in the distribution of the diatom assemblages. Weighted-averaging regression and calibration of this diatom-salinity relationship was used to establish a transfer function for the reconstruction of past lakewater salinity from fossil diatom assemblages. Weighted-averaging regression and calibration with classical deshrinking provided the best model for salinity reconstructions and this was applied to the fossil diatom assemblages from one of the saline lakes in the Vestfold Hills in order to assess its potential for palaeosalinity and palaeoclimate reconstruction.
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  • 32
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    Journal of paleolimnology 20 (1998), S. 253-265 
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Schlagwort(e): Late Quaternary ; diatoms ; climate change ; vegetation change ; shallow ; subalpine ; Crowfoot Lake ; Alberta ; paleolimnology
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Biologie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract The late Quaternary diatom record from subalpine Crowfoot Lake, Banff National Park, Alberta (lat. 51° 61′N; long. 116° 31′W) has been analyzed. Results are related to independently inferred vegetation and climate changes. No diatoms were found in the basal diamict that predates 11330 14C yr BP. Very few occur until ca. 10 10014 C yr BP probably due to the short time between de-glaciation and an advance of the Crowfoot Glacier during the ‘Younger Dryas Chron’. Initial pioneering species were characteristic of alkaline water and calcareous organic sediments. They appeared as sediments became organic and laminated suggesting increasing water clarity, and as the Pinus-dominated forest expanded and the climate warmed. After ca. 9060 14C yr BP diatom numbers increased rapidly, reaching a maximum prior to the Mazama tephra; they remained high until ca. 3500 14C yr BP. The period between ca. 9060 and 3500 14C yr saw timberline elevation increase and the dominance of xerophytic taxa. These are consistent with early to mid-Holocene warmth and aridity. Diatom productivity reflects the warm climate and presumably longer ice-free season, a stable catchment and transparent water. Decreases in diatom productivity coincide with a vegetation change with reduction of xerophytic taxa and the appearance of a closed Picea-Abies forest, hence a cooler, wetter climate at ca. 4100 to 3500 14C yr BP. The diatom numbers during the Neoglacial were of the same magnitude as prior to ca. 9060 14C yr BP. Small species of Fragilaria (overwhelmingly Fragilaria construens v. venter) became extremely dominant during the period of high diatom productivity, and remained so thereafter. Recovery of the lake appears to have been rapid after deposition of the Mazama tephra. Maximum occurrence of Cyclotella radiosa occurred ca. 8000 14C yr BP during the warm early Holocene and may reflect this warmer climate, a longer ice-free season than presently, perhaps less turbid water, or it may reflect a subtly higher nutrient status of the lake water. The diatom record of Crowfoot Lake has responded with sensitivity, particularly in terms of productivity, to the Holocene vegetation and climate changes.
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  • 33
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    Journal of paleolimnology 20 (1998), S. 205-215 
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Schlagwort(e): subarctic lakes ; diatoms ; paleolimnology ; climate change ; Cyclotella ; Finnish Lapland
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Biologie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract Diatoms were analysed from a 30-cm long sediment core obtained from remote subarctic Lake Saanaärvi (69°03′N, 20°52′E) in order to trace possible changes in the lake. Diatom assemblages were relatively constant throughout the core, except in the top 4–5 cm (approx 1850 A.D.) where relative frequencies of Aulacoseira italica subsp. subarctica, A. lirata var. biseriata, Cyclotella comensis and C. glomerata increased markedly. No significant trends were observed in the weighted averaging (WA) reconstructed pH values. Several hypotheses, including (i) airborne pollution, (ii) climatic change, and (iii) catchment disturbances have been put forth to explain the recent changes in diatom assemblages. The diatom change coincides with a marked increase in mean annual temperature that has been documented in the area since the termination of the Little Ice Age. Our evidence favours climate change as the main causative mechanism for the observed diatom compositional changes, although other explanations cannot be ruled out.
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  • 34
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    Climatic change 40 (1998), S. 277-284 
    ISSN: 1573-1480
    Schlagwort(e): ombrotrophic bogs ; microbial ecology ; methane ; climate change
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Notizen: Abstract Gases are produced from wetlands when plant biomass is degraded by microbial consortia, producing carbon dioxide aerobically and methane when oxygen is lacking. In anaerobic waterlogged situations, such as the catotelm of ombrotrophic bogs, this methane forms minute gas bubbles that severely reduce the hydraulic conductivity and hence the degradation of biomass due to the lack of nutrients. The bogs thus become carbon sinks, formed from the partially degraded biomass that accumulates as peat. The results of an investigation of an ombrotrophic bog, Mer Bleue, Ontario, Canada are summarized here, and the effects that climate change may have on such bogs are discussed. Any change of the water table in wetlands will have a substantial effect upon their ecology. If the water table should fall allowing bogs to become aerobic, most of the accumulated biomass carbon could be returned to the atmosphere by degradation to carbon dioxide, and as well, methane entrapped within the matrix would be released directly to the atmosphere. If on the other hand, the bogs are flooded, then the entrapped bubbles will coalesce allowing the gas to escape to the atmosphere, while at the same time the degradation of the peat will be enhanced.
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  • 35
    ISSN: 1573-1480
    Schlagwort(e): effects of global warming ; drought ; climate change ; Prairie Pothole Region ; waterfowl ; waterfowl breeding ecology ; wetlands
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Notizen: Abstract The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the Northern Great Plains is the most important breeding area for waterfowl in North America. Historically, the size of breeding duck populations in the PPR has been highly correlated with spring wetland conditions. We show that one indicator of climate conditions, the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), is strongly correlated with annual counts (from 1955 to 1996) of both May ponds (R2 = 0.72, p 〈 0.0001) and breeding duck populations (R2 = 0.69, p 〈 0.0001) in the Northcentral U.S., suggesting the utility of PDSI as an index for climatic factors important to wetlands and ducks. We then use this relationship to project future pond and duck numbers based on PDSI values generated from sensitivity analyses and two general circulation model (GCM) scenarios. We investigate the sensitivity of PDSI to fixed changes in temperature of 0°C, +1.5°C, +2.5°C, and +4.0°C in combination with fixed changes in precipitation of -10%, +0%, +7%, and +15%, changes spanning the range of typically-projected values for this region from human-induced climatic change. Most (11 of 12) increased temperature scenarios tested result in increased drought (due to greater evapotranspiration under warmer temperatures) and declining numbers of both wetlands and ducks. Assuming a doubling of CO2 by 2060, both the equilibrium and transient GCM scenarios we use suggest a major increase in drought conditions. Under these scenarios, Northcentral U.S. breeding duck populations would fluctuate around means of 2.1 or 2.7 million ducks based on the two GCMs, respectively, instead of the present long-term mean of 5.0 million. May pond numbers would fluctuate around means of 0.6 or 0.8 million ponds instead of the present mean of 1.3 million. The results suggest that the ecologically and economically important PPR could be significantly damaged by climate changes typically projected. We make several recommendations for policy and research to help mitigate potential effects.
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  • 36
    ISSN: 1573-1480
    Schlagwort(e): Fire regime ; fire scenarios ; climate change ; tropical vegetation
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Notizen: Abstract Investigations of the ecological, atmospheric chemical, and climatic impacts of contemporary fires in tropical vegetation have received increasing attention during the last 10 years. Little is known, however, about the impacts of climate changes on tropical vegetation and wildland fires. This paper summarizes the main known interactions of fire, vegetation, and atmosphere. Examples of predictive models on the impacts of climate change on the boreal and temperate zones are given in order to highlight the possible impacts on the tropical forest and savanna biomes and to demonstrate parameters that need to be involved in this process. Response of tropical vegetation to fire is characterized by degradation towards xerophytic and pyrophytic plant communities dominated by grasses and fire-tolerant tree and bush invaders. The potential impacts of climate change on tropical fire regimes are investigated using a GISS GCM-based lightning and fire model and the Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse Gas-Induced Climate Change (MAGICC).
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  • 37
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 2 (1998), S. 337-358 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; greenhouse gas emissions ; waste ; landfills ; mitigation
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract Waste management is a significant source of methane (CH4) emissions. CH4 is second to carbon dioxide (CO2) the most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas. In this article the methodology and results from a study on the reduction potential of alternative waste treatment strategies in mitigating the greenhouse impact are presented. The objective is to provide information to decision makers so that the greenhouse issue can be included in the decision making on waste management strategies. The potential cost-effectiveness of reducing the greenhouse impact of alternative waste treatment strategies in three communities of different size in Finland is assessed. The estimation of the greenhouse impact includes estimates of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the amount of carbon (C) stored at landfills (Csink) and the emission savings that can be achieved by using waste for energy production (assumed decrease in the use of fossil fuels). Landfill gas recovery with energy production was found to be the most cost-efficient way in reducing the greenhouse impact from large landfills. Burning of all the waste or the combustible fraction in municipal solid waste (MSW) was also an efficient method to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, especially if the energy produced can reduce the burning of fossil fuels. Emissions from transportation of waste are small compared with the emissions from landfills. Even if the transportation mileage is doubled due to increasing separation and recycling the greenhouse impact of transportation would be only 3–4 percent of the impact of landfilling the waste.
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  • 38
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 3 (1998), S. 343-381 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): carbon dioxide emissions ; climate change ; climate change mitigation ; emission scenarios ; greenhouse gas emissions ; land-use emissions ; methane emissions ; nitrous oxide emissions
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract Land-use emissions of greenhouse gases make up over one-third of current total anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and about three-quarters of the total anthropogenic emissions of CH4 and N2O. Considering their contribution to global emissions, it is important to understand their future trends in order to anticipate and mitigate climate change. This paper reviews published scenarios of major categories of these emissions with the aim to provide background information for the development of new scenarios. These categories include CO2 from deforestation, CH4 from rice cultivation, CH4 from enteric fermentation of cattle, and N2O from fertilizer application. Base year estimates of all these categories varied greatly from reference to reference, and hence emissions of all scenarios were normalized relative to their 1990 value before being compared to one another. The range of published scenarios of CO2 emissions from deforestation is widest around the middle of the 21st century and then all scenarios converge to low values towards 2100. By contrast, the different scenarios of CH4 and N2O diverge with time, showing their widest range in 2100. Global emissions of CH4 from rice cultivation vary by a factor of three in 2100 and N2O from fertilized soils by a factor of 2.3. Emissions of CH4 from enteric fermentation of animals have the smallest range (factor of 2.0). The typical long-range trends of land-use emission scenarios vary greatly from region to region - they stabilize in industrialized regions after a few decades, but tend to stabilize later in developing regions or continue to grow throughout the 21st century. To improve the realism of the estimates of future trends of land-use emissions, it is especially important to improve the estimation of the future extent of agricultural land and the rate of deforestation, while taking into account significant driving forces such as the demand for agricultural commodities and crop yields.
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  • 39
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 3 (1998), S. 321-341 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; emissions scenarios ; methane emissions
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract Evidence from the atmosphere indicates that global emissions of methane may have been broadly constant since the early 1980s or growing only slowly. This suggests that whilst emissions from some sources may have increased with increased activity, emissions from other sources may have gone down. This is supported by evidence and analysis from the individual emission sectors which show declining emission rates in some cases. This paper reviews the factors that might affect emissions in the future from different sources and has been written as an aid to the development of new scenarios for greenhouse gas emission for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The analysis indicates that there could be additional uncertainty in future emissions but that, overall, future emissions might plausibly be lower than previously projected.
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  • 40
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 3 (1998), S. 133-170 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; environment ; fertility rates ; greenhouse gas emissions scenarios ; IIASA ; IPAT ; IPCC ; IS92 ; population ; population projections ; United Nations ; U.S. Census Bureau ; World Bank
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract A survey is made of the latest world population projections issued by the United Nations, World Bank, U.S. Census Bureau, and International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Medium variants from all the organizations show excellent agreement with respect to many features of future world population growth. It appears that little would be gained by obtaining additional regional projections made by governments or organizations other than those listed above. In general, the new range of population projections that are candidates for forthcoming IPCC emissions scenarios are narrower and lower than the previous IPCC IS92 population range: a reflection of updated information on the decline of fertility rates in developing countries and the incorporation of a plausible correlation between mortality rates and fertility rates within the IIASA ‘rapid’ and ‘slow’ demographic transition variants. Comments are made on the schematic approach of forecasting CO2 emissions using multiplicative identities such as ‘IPAT’ (impact/emissions = population × affluence × technology). Although the unqualified IPAT model suggests that emissions should scale linearly with population, a number of caveats to this exist, the most important of which may be factor interactions. A brief review is made of conventional thinking about interactions between population growth and economic development. Correlation studies and theory suggest that population growth has a neutral or, at most, weak negative effect on economic growth. Conversely, it is well established that higher per capita incomes are well correlated with lower fertility and mortality rates in developing countries. Therefore, a plausible first-order relationship worth exploring in the next generation of IPCC scenarios is that scenarios with higher average economic growth rates in the developing world should be associated with lower fertility and mortality rates there. Calculations are presented that illustrate the effect this negative correlation could have had on the range of the older IS92 emission scenarios, assuming that all other factors are unchanged. Finally, some policy issues concerning population and global warming are reviewed in connection with the IPCC’s omission of population policy discussion in its 1995 Second Assessment Report.
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  • 41
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 3 (1998), S. 171-230 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; emission scenarios ; energy resources ; fossil fuels ; nuclear power ; renewables ; energy conversion technologies ; fuel cells
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract A variety of energy sources will compete to provide the energy services that humans will require over the next 100 years. The balance of these sources will depend upon the availability of fossil fuels and the development of new technologies including renewable energy technologies, and will be one of the keys in projecting greenhouse gas emissions. There is uncertainty about each of the energy sources. With oil, for example, there are two alternate views of future reserves, one that reserves are geologically limited and that supplies will decline within a decade or two, the other that there are enormous quantities of hydrocarbon in the earth’s crust and that reserves are a function of developing technology and price. With solar voltaics, as a second example, there is optimism that the technology will become increasingly competitive, but there is uncertainty about the rate at which costs can come down and about ultimate cost levels. This paper reviews the reserves of fossil fuels and the prospects for nuclear power and the renewables. It also reviews the main energy conversion technologies that are available now or are expected to become increasingly available through time. However, it should be noted that, over a time horizon of 100 years, there may be quite radical changes in both production and conversion technologies that cannot be predicted and it is quite possible for some as yet unheard of technology to be developed and to transform the markets. The paper has been written to aid the development of new scenarios for the emission of greenhouse gases for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
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  • 42
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Biogeochemistry 41 (1998), S. 215-235 
    ISSN: 1573-515X
    Schlagwort(e): arctic ; carbon dioxide ; climate change ; methane ; plant transport ; species composition
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Chemie und Pharmazie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract We conducted plant species removals, air temperaturemanipulations, and vegetation and soil transplants inAlaskan wet-meadow and tussock tundra communities todetermine the relative importance of vegetation typeand environmental variables in controlling ecosystemmethane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) flux. Plastic greenhouses placed over wet-meadow tundraincreased air temperature, soil temperature, and soilmoisture, but did not affect CH4 or CO2 flux(measured in the dark). By contrast, removal ofsedges in the wet meadow significantly decreased fluxof CH4, while moss removal tended to increaseCH4 emissions. At 15 cm depth, pore-waterCH4 concentrations were higher in sedge-removalthan in control plots, suggesting that sedgescontribute to CH4 emissions by transportingCH4 from anaerobic soil to the atmosphere, ratherthan by promoting methanogenesis. Inreciprocal-ecosystem transplants between thewet-meadow and tussock tundra communities, CH4and CO2 emissions were higher overall in thewet-meadow site, but were unrelated to transplantorigin. Methane flux was correlated with localvariation in soil temperature, thaw depth, andwater-table depth, but the relative importance ofthese factors varied through the season. Our resultssuggest that future changes in CH4 and CO2flux in response to climatic change will be morestrongly mediated by large-scale changes in vegetationand soil parameters than by direct temperature effects.
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  • 43
    ISSN: 1573-9708
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; estuary ; foraminifera ; geochemistry ; human impact ; salt marshes
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract The inner Tagus estuary is essentially a sedimentation basin that receives cohesive sediment from terrestrial, marine, biological and anthropogenic sources. Three short cores from one site in a marsh area of this estuary (Seixal Bay) were analysed for sedimentary, geochemical and micropalaeontological contents (benthic foraminifera and nannoplankton). The length of the cores represents about half a millennium of sedimentation. Textural analysis suggests a highly uniform mud sedimentation for most of the cores but geochemical, mineralogical and micropaleontological results indicate climatic and environmental changes and anthropogenic disturbance. Three Foraminifera zones were identified. The lower part of the lower zone indicates sedimentation in an open channel or a lower domain of an exposed high-energy sandflat. Sediments of the upper part of the lower zone and of the middle zone were deposited in a lower-energy environment, probably associated with a sheltered, vertically aggrading mudflat located within the Seixal Bay. Biological and mineralogical indicators suggest that periods of total or partial closure of this bay occurred. Clay minerals indicate that drier and colder conditions prevailed in the lower half of this zone evolving gradually to a wetter and warmer environment towards the top. The upper zone indicates persistence of low-energy sedimentation and evolution towards the present salt-marsh conditions. Anthropogenic pollution is clear in geochemical proxies at the top of the sedimentary column and was used for dating purposes.
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  • 44
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Schlagwort(e): Lake Baikal ; Russia ; paleolimnology ; diatoms ; chrysophyte cysts ; climate change
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Biologie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract Siliceous microfossil assemblage succession was analyzed in a 100 m sediment core from Lake Baikal, Siberia. The core was recovered from the lake's central basin at a water depth of 365 m. Microfossil abundance varied greatly within the intervals sampled, ranging from samples devoid of siliceous microfossils to samples with up to 3.49 × 1011 microfossils g-1 sediment. Fluctuations in abundance appear to reflect trends in the marine δ18O record, with peak microfossil levels generally representing climate optima. Microfossil taxa present in sampled intervals changed considerably with core depth. Within each sample a small number of endemic diatom species dominated the assemblage. Changes in dominant endemic taxa between sampled intervals ranged from extirpation of some taxa, to shifts in quantitative abundance. Differences in microfossil composition and the association of variations in abundance with climate fluctuations suggest rapid speciation in response to major climatic excursions.
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  • 45
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 2 (1997), S. 19-44 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): adaptation ; Africa ; agriculture ; climate change ; vulnerability ; water
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract The intersection of present vulnerability and the prospect of climate change in Africa warrants proactive action now to reduce the risk of large-scale, adverse impacts. The process of planning adaptive strategies requires a systematic evaluation of priorities and constraints, and the involvement of stakeholders. An overview of climate change in Africa and case studies of impacts for agriculture and water underlie discussion of a typology of adaptive responses that may be most effective for different stakeholders. The most effective strategies are likely to be to reduce present vulnerability and to enhance a broad spectrum of capacity in responding to environmental, resource and economic perturbations. In some cases, such as design of water systems, an added risk factor should be considered.
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  • 46
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 2 (1997), S. 19-44 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): adaptation ; Africa ; agriculture ; climate change ; vulnerability ; water
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract The intersection of present vulnerability and the prospect of climate change in Africa warrants proactive action now to reduce the risk of large-scale, adverse impacts. The process of planning adaptive strategies requires a systematic evaluation of priorities and constraints, and the involvement of stakeholders. An overview of climate change in Africa and case studies of impacts for agriculture and water underlie discussion of a typology of adaptive responses that may be most effective for different stakeholders. The most effective strategies are likely to be to reduce present vulnerability and to enhance a broad spectrum of capacity in responding to environmental, resource and economic perturbations. In some cases, such as design of water systems, an added risk factor should be considered.
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  • 47
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; CO2 ; carbondioxide ; integrated assessment ; MiniCAM ; LEESS ; top down ; bottom up ; sulfor ; energy ; emissions mitigation ; energy technology ; advanced energy technologies
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract We report results from the application of an integrated assessment model, MiniCAM 1.0. The model is employed to explore the full range of climate change implications of the successful development of cost effective, advanced, energy technologies. These technologies are shown to have a profound effect on the future magnitude and rate of anthropogenic climate change. We find that the introduction of assumptions developed by a group of ‘bottom-up’ modelers for the LEESS scenarios into a ‘top-down’ model, the Edmonds-Reilly-Barns Model, leads to ‘top down’ emissions trajectories similar to those of the LEESS. The cumulative effect of advanced energy technologies is to reduce annual emissions from fossil fuel use to levels which stabilize atmospheric concentrations below 550 ppmv. While all energy technologies play roles, the introduction of advanced biomass energy production technology is particularly important. The consideration of all greenhouse related anthropogenic emissions, and in particular sulfur dioxide, is found to be important. We find that the consideration of sulfur dioxide emissions coupled to rapid reductions in carbon dioxide emissions leads to higher global mean temperatures prior to 2050 than in the reference case. This result is due to the short-term cooling impact of sulfate aerosols, which dominates the long-term warming impact of CO2 and CH4 in the years prior to 2050. We also show that damage calculations which use only mean global temperature and income may be underestimating damages by up to a factor of five. Disaggregating income reduces this to a factor of two, still a major error. Finally, the role of the discount rate is shown to be extraordinarily important to technology preference.
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  • 48
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Water resources management 11 (1997), S. 17-34 
    ISSN: 1573-1650
    Schlagwort(e): rainfall regime ; Ganga basin ; weighted regression ; climate change ; trend
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract Data from three stations Agra, Dehradun and Dehli, were analyzed for evaluation of changes in rainfall and temperature regimes in the upper and middle parts of the Ganga basin in northern India. Long-term data on monsoon rainfall, the number of rainy days during the monsoon season, and the annual maximum temperature at these stations were included in the analysis. Nonparametric methods were employed to identify trends, if any, in these data. The analysis shows that the total monsoon rainfall and the number of rainy days during the monsoon season are on the decline, whereas the annual maximum temperature is on the rise. These changes are observed to have begun around the second half of the 1960's. The results point towards a possible change in the climatic regime of the Ganga basin that has far-reaching implications for the Indian economy.
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  • 49
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Water resources management 11 (1997), S. 407-435 
    ISSN: 1573-1650
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; hydrology ; water management ; water resources
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract Global climate change related to natural and anthropogenic processes has been the topic of concern and interest world wide. Despite ongoing research efforts, the climate predictions cannot be rated any better than speculative or possible scenarios whose probability of occurrence is, at the present stage, impossible to assess. One of the most significant impacts of the ‘greenhouse effect’ is anticipated to be on water resources, including different elements of the hydrologic cycle, water supply and demand, regional vulnerability, and water quality. Thus, the impact of climate change appears to be an additional component on top of the large number of existing water-related problems. The existence of the greenhouse effect, the increase of greenhouse gas emissions, and the rise of corresponding concentrations are things that are certain. However, their impacts on hydrology and water management are highly uncertain. In the latter area, one needs information on much smaller spatial and temporal scales than those used in climate studies. The objective of the present paper is to analyze the climate change impact on water resources in a system's perspective, to discuss scientific gaps, and challenge scientific issues. The role of different scales and uncertainties, as well as the hydrological view of global circulation models are also discussed. Our preparedness for probable global (climate) change is reviewed in terms of assessment, planning, design and adaptation.
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  • 50
    ISSN: 1573-8590
    Schlagwort(e): Chironanidae ; diatoms ; palaeoclimate ; palaeolimnology ; palaeoecology ; palaeosalinity ; salinity ; postglacial ; climate change
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Biologie , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract Salinity fluctuations in lakes of semi-arid regions have long been recognised as indicators of palaeoclimatic change, and have provided a valuable line of evidence in palaeo-climatic reconstruction. In the present study, fossil remains of diatoms and midges were used to reconstruct salinity changes at Mahoney Lake from the early postglacial, through the early, mid and late Holocene. A transition from midges typical of a freshwater community (Protanypus, Sergentia, Heterotrissocladius, Cladopelma, Dicrotendipes) during the early postglacial, to those indicative of saline environments (Cricotopus/Orthocladius, Tanypus) occurred in the early Holocene. The midge-inferred salinity values reflected the shift from freshwater (0.031 g/L) immediately after deglaciation, to saline water (2.4 to 55.2 g/L) in subsequent periods. A less saline period was found to have occurred after 1000 yr BP, suggesting a cooler or wetter period. The diatom record indicates similar trends, with freshwater taxa (e.g.,Cyclotella bodanica var. aff.lemanica) dominating near the bottom of the core. Diatom-inferred salinities indicate that saline conditions (about 30 g/L) prevailed throughout subsequent Holocene time, although relatively fresh conditions are indicated following deposition of the Mazama Ash, and from about 1500 yr BP until the present day. Midge and diatom-inferred salinity reconstructions for Mahoney Lake compare favorably with each other, and with climate trends inferred from earlier palynological evidence. The palaeosalinity record thus contributes new data relevant to past climatic conditions, in a region where little data have previously been collected.
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  • 51
    ISSN: 1573-8590
    Schlagwort(e): Chironanidae ; diatoms ; palaeoclimate ; palaeolimnology ; palaeoecology ; palaeosalinity ; salinity ; postglacial ; climate change
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Biologie , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract Salinity fluctuations in lakes of semi-arid regions have long beenrecognised as indicators of palaeoclimatic change, and have provided avaluable line of evidence in palaeoclimatic reconstruction. In the presentstudy, fossil remains of diatoms and midges were used to reconstructsalinity changes at Mahoney Lake from the early postglacial, through theearly, mid and late Holocene. A transition from midges typical of afreshwater community (Protanypus, Sergentia, Heterotrissocladius,Cladopelma, Dicrotendipes) during the early postglacial, to those indicativeof saline environments (Cricotopus/Orthocladius, Tanypus) occurred in theearly Holocene. The midge-inferred salinity values reflected the shift fromfreshwater (0.031 g/L) immediately after deglaciation, to saline water (2.4to 55.2 g/L) in subsequent periods. A less saline period was found to haveoccurred after 1000 yr BP, suggesting a cooler or wetter period. The diatomrecord indicates similar trends, with freshwater taxa (e.g., Cyclotellabodanica var. aff. lemanica) dominating near the bottom of the core.Diatom-inferred salinities indicate that saline conditions (about 30 g/L)prevailed throughout subsequent Holocene time, although relatively freshconditions are indicated following deposition of the Mazama Ash, and fromabout 1500 yr BP until the present day. Midge and diatom-inferred salinityreconstructions for Mahoney Lake compare favorably with each other, and withclimate trends inferred from earlier palynological evidence. Thepalaeosalinity record thus contributes new data relevant to past climaticconditions, in a region where little data have previously been collected.
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  • 52
    ISSN: 1573-515X
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; dissolved organic carbon (DOC) ; forested catchments ; nutrient export ; Precambrian Shield streams ; storm runoff
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Chemie und Pharmazie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations and DOC export arestudied during storms to examine the relationship between DOCconcentration and stream discharge and to assess the importance of stormson DOC export. Storms were monitored in seven subcatchments within twosmall watersheds (Harp 4--21 and Harp 3A) on the Precambrian Shield inCentral Ontario, Canada. Stream DOC concentrations increase during stormsby as much as 100% and 410% in Harp3A and Harp 4--21 respectively. The seasonal regression between DOC andstream discharge is significant in subcatchments without wetlands(r2 〉 0.7) but is not significant in thetwo subcatchments with small wetland areas (r2 〈0.06). On average, regressions based on weekly data yield accurate estimatesof DOC export but the variation in regressions among individual storms andthe small number of high DOC samples result in uncertainties of more than30% in DOC export. The period-weighted calculation ofDOC export from weekly data underestimates export by 14%and 22% in Harp 3A and Harp 4--21 respectively. Stormswere responsible for 57% to 68% of theDOC export in the autumn and 29% to 40%of the DOC export in the spring. A single large storm accounted for31% of the autumn DOC export in Harp 3A. The importanceof individual storms for DOC export and the variation in the relationshipbetween DOC and stream discharge among storms make it difficult to predictthe effects of climate change on DOC export and DOC concentrations.
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  • 53
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 2 (1997), S. 337-358 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; greenhouse gas emissions ; waste ; landfills ; mitigation
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract Waste management is a significant source of methane (CH4) emissions. CH4 is second to carbon dioxide (CO2) the most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas. In this article the methodology and results from a study on the reduction potential of alternative waste treatment strategies in mitigating the greenhouse impact are presented. The objective is to provide information to decision makers so that the greenhouse issue can be included in the decision making on waste management strategies. The potential cost-effectiveness of reducing the greenhouse impact of alternative waste treatment strategies in three communities of different size in Finland is assessed. The estimation of the greenhouse impact includes estimates of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the amount of carbon (C) stored at landfills (Csink) and the emission savings that can be achieved by using waste for energy production (assumed decrease in the use of fossil fuels). Landfill gas recovery with energy production was found to be the most-efficient way in reducing the greenhouse impact from large landfills. Burning of all the waste or the combustible fraction in municipal solid waste (MSW) was also an efficient method to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, especially if the energy produced can reduce the burning of fossil fuels. Emissions from transportation of waste are small compared with the emissions from landfills. Even if the transportion mileage is doubled due to increasing separation and recycling the greenhouse impact of transportation would be only 3–4 percent of the impact of landfilling the waste.
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  • 54
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 251-271 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): Greece ; maize ; climate change ; CO2 effects ; adaptation ; crop simulation
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract The potential impacts of climate change on the phenology and yield of two maize varieties in Greece were studied. Three sites representing the central and northern agricultural regions were selected: Karditsa, Naoussa and Xanthi. The CERES-Maize model, embedded in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT 3.0), was used for the crop simulations, with current and possible future management practices. Equilibrium doubled CO2 climate change scenarios were derived from the GISS, GFDL, and UKMO general circulation models (GCMs); a transient scenario was developed from the GISS GCM transient run A. These scenarios predict consistent increases in air temperature, small increases in solar radiation and precipitation changes that vary considerably over the study regions in Greece. Physiological effects of CO2 on crop growth and yield were simulated. Under present management practices, the climate change scenarios generally resulted in decreases in maize yield due to reduced duration of the growing period at all sites. Adaptation analyses showed that mitigation of climate change effects may be achieved through earlier sowing dates and the use of new maize varieties. Varieties with higher kernel-filling rates, currently restricted to the central regions, could be extended to the northern regions of Greece. In the central regions, new maize varieties with longer grain-filling periods might be needed.
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  • 55
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 219-232 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; mediterranean region ; agriculture ; cereal production ; impact assessment
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract Current trends in Mediterranean agriculture reveal differences between the Northern and Southern Mediterranean countries as related to population growth, land and water use, and food supply and demand. The changes in temperature and precipitation predicted by general circulation models for the Mediterranean region will affect water availability and resource management, critically shaping the patterns of future crop production. Three companion papers analyze in detail future impacts of predicted climate change on wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and maize (Zea mays L.) production in Spain, Greece, and Egypt, and test farm- level adaptation strategies such as early planting and cultivar change with the aid of dynamic crop models. Strategies to improve the assessment of the potential effects of future climate change on agricultural production are discussed.
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  • 56
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 273-288 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; vulnerability ; adaptation ; agriculture ; Spain ; wheat ; maize
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract This study evaluates the theoretical impact of climate change on yields and water use of two crops with different responses to increased CO2 and which represent contrasting agricultural systems in Spain. In all cases the simulated effects of a CO2-induced climate change depended on the counteracting effects between higher daily ET rates, shortening of crop growth duration and changes in precipitation patterns as well as the simulated effects of CO2 on the water use efficiency of the crops. For summer irrigated crops such as maize, the yield reductions and the exacerbated problems of irrigation water availability simulated with climate change may force the crop out of production in some regions. For winter dryland crops such as wheat, productivity increased significantly in some regions, suggesting a northward shift of area suitable for wheat production in future climates. The study considered strategies for improving the efficiency of water use based on the optimization of crop management decisions in a CO2-driven warmer climate.
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  • 57
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 233-250 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; vulnerability ; adaptation ; agriculture ; Egypt
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract If no timely measures are taken to adapt Egyptian agriculture to possible climate warming, the effects may be negative and serious. Egypt appears to be particularly vulnerable to climate change because of its dependence on the Nile River as the primary water source, its large traditional agricultural base, and its long coastline, already undergoing both intensifying development and erosion. A simulation study characterized potential yield and water use efficiency decreases on two reference crops in the main agricultural regions with possible future climatic variation, even when the beneficial effects of increased CO2 were taken into account. On-farm adaptation techniques which imply no additional cost to the agricultural system, did not compensate for the yield losses with the warmer climate or improve the crop water-use efficiency. Economic adjustments such as the improvement of the overall water-use efficiency of the agricultural system, soil drainage and conservation, land management, and crop alternatives are essential. If appropriate measures are taken, negative effects of climate change in agricultural production and other major resource sectors (water and land) may be lessened.
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  • 58
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 219-232 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; mediterranean region ; agriculture ; cereal production ; impact assessment
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract Current trends in Mediterranean agriculture reveal differences between the Northern and Southern Mediterranean countries as related to population growth, land and water use, and food supply and demand. The changes in temperature and precipitation predicted by general circulation models for the Mediterranean region will affect water availability and resource management, critically shaping the patterns of future crop production. Three companion papers analyze in detail future impacts of predicted climate change on wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and maize (Zea mays L.) production in Spain, Greece, and Egypt, and test farm- level adaptation strategies such as early planting and cultivar change with the aid of dynamic crop models. Strategies to improve the assessment of the potential effects of future climate change on agricultural production are discussed.
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  • 59
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 233-250 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; vulnerability ; adaption ; agriculture ; Egypt
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract If no timely measures are taken to adapt Egyptian agriculture to possible climate warming, the effects may be negative and serious. Egypt appears to be particularly vulnerable to climate change because of its dependence on the Nile River as the primary water source, its large traditional agricultural base, and its long coastline, already undergoing both intensifying development and erosion. A simulation study characterized potential yield and water use efficiency decreases on two reference crops in the main agricultural regions with possible future climatic variation, even when the beneficial effects of increased CO2 were taken into account. On-farm adaptation techniques which imply no additional cost to the agricultural system, did not compensate for the yield losses with the warmer climate or improve the crop water-use efficiency. Economic adjustments such as the improvement of the overall water-use efficiency of the agricultural system, soil drainage and conservation, land management, and crop alternatives are essential. If appropriate measures are taken, negative effects of climate change in agricultural production and other major resource sectors (water and land) may be lessened.
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  • 60
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    Digitale Medien
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 273-288 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; vulnerability ; adaptation ; agriculture ; Spain ; wheat ; maize
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract This study evaluates the theoretical impact of climate change on yields and water use of two crops with different responses to increased CO2 and which represent contrasting agricultural systems in Spain. In all cases the simulated effects of a CO2-induced climate change depended on the counteracting effects between higher daily ET rates, shortening of crop growth duration and changes in precipitation patterns as well as the simulated effects of CO2 on the water use efficiency of the crops. For summer irrigated crops such as maize, the yield reductions and the exacerbated problems of irrigation water availability simulated with climate change may force the crop out of production in some regions. For winter dryland crops such as wheat, productivity increased significantly in some regions, suggesting a northward shift of area suitable for wheat production in future climates. The study considered strategies for improving the efficiency of water use based on the optimization of crop management decisions in a CO2-driven warmer climate.
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  • 61
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 251-271 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): Greece ; maize ; climate change ; CO2 effects ; adaptation ; crop simulation
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract The potential impacts of climate change on the phenology and yield of two maize varieties in Greece were studied. Three sites representing the central and northern agricultural regions were selected: Karditsa, Naoussa and Xanthi. The CERES-Maize model, embedded in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT 3.0), was used for the crop simulations, with current and possible future management practices. Equilibrium doubled CO2 climate change scenarios were derived from the GISS, GFDL, and UKMO general circulation models (GCMs); a transient scenario was developed from the GISS GCM transient run A. These scenarios predict consistent increases in air temperature, small increases in solar radiation and precipitation changes that vary considerably over the study regions in Greece. Physiological effects of CO2 on crop growth and yield were simulated. Under present management practices, the climate change scenarios generally resulted in decreases in maize yield due to reduced duration of the growing period at all sites. Adaptation analyses showed that mitigation of climate change effects may be achieved through earlier sowing dates and the use of new maize varieties. Varieties with higher kernel-filling rates, currently restricted to the central regions, could be extended to the northern regions of Greece. In the central regions, new maize varieties with longer grain-filling periods might be needed.
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  • 62
    Digitale Medien
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 341-361 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): carbon dioxide ; climate change ; Climate Convention ; impact indicators ; crop production ; natural vegetation ; sea level rise ; stabilization of greenhouse gases ; greenhouse gas emissions
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract Among the key issues of concern to the Climate Convention is the stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations and the minimization of impacts to global agriculture, natural ecosystems and economic development. The purpose of this paper is to couple these issues in consistent, integrated scenarios, using the IMAGE 2.0 model as an integrating tool. Scenarios of gradual stabilization of atmospheric CO2 at 350 and 450 ppm are compared to a baseline of no policy action in which CO2 concentration increases to 777 ppm. Under the stabilizaton scenarios substantially smaller areas of wheat and millet, as well as nature reserves, are threatened by climate change, especially in temperate regions. The amount of sea level rise is also reduced under the stabilization scenarios. However, climate continues to change under the stabilization scenarios and therefore some ‘residual’ climate impacts occur. Hence the integrated scenarios indicate that stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at or slightly above current levels will lessen impacts as compared to baseline levels, but not eliminate them.
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  • 63
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 341-361 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): carbon dioxide ; climate change ; Climate Convention ; impact indicators ; crop production ; natural vegetation ; sea level rise ; stabilization of greenhouse gases ; greenhouse gas emissions
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract Among the key issues of concern to the Climate Convention is the stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations and the minimization of impacts to global agriculture, natural ecosystems and economic development. The purpose of this paper is to couple these issues in consistent, integrated scenarios, using the IMAGE 2.0 model as an integrating tool. Scenarios of gradual stabilization of atmospheric CO2 at 350 and 450 ppm are compared to a baseline of no policy action in which CO2 concentration increases to 777 ppm. Under the stabilization scenarios substantially smaller areas of wheat and millet, as well as nature reserves, are threatened by climate change, especially in temperate regions. The amount of sea level rise is also reduced under the stabilization scenarios. However, climate continues to change under the stabilization scenarios and therefore some ‘residual’ climate impacts occur. Hence the integrated scenarios indicate that stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at or slightly above current levels will lessen impacts as compared to baseline levels, but not eliminate them.
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  • 64
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 311-339 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; CO2 ; carbondioxide ; integrated assessment ; MiniCAM ; LEESS ; top down ; bottom up ; sulfor ; energy ; emissions mitigation ; energy technology ; advanced energy technologies
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract We report results from the application of an integrated assessment model, MiniCAM 1.0. The model is employed to explore the full range of climate change implications of the successful development of cost effective, advanced, energy technologies. These technologies are shown to have a profound effect on the future magnitude and rate of anthropogenic climate change. We find that the introduction of assumptions developed by a group of ‘bottom-up’ modelers for the LEESS scenarios into a ‘top-down’ model, the Edmonds-Reilly-Barns Model, leads to ‘top down’ emissions trajectories similar to those of the LEESS. The cumulative effect of advanced energy technologies is to reduce annual emissions from fossil fuel use to levels which stabilize atmospheric concentrations below 550 ppmv. While all energy technologies play roles, the introduction of advanced biomass energy production technology is particularly important. The consideration of all greenhouse related anthropogenic emissions, and in particular sulfur dioxide, is found to be important. We find that the consideration of sulfur dioxide emissions coupled to rapid reductions in carbon dioxide emissions leads to higher global mean temperatures prior to 2050 than in the reference case. This result is due to the short-term cooling impact of sulfate aerosols, which dominates the long-term warming impact of CO2 and CH4 in the years prior to 2050. We also show that damage calculations which use only mean global temperature and income may be underestimating damages by up to a factor of five. Disaggregating income reduces this to a factor of two, still a major error. Finally, the role of the discount rate is shown to be extraordinarily important to technology preference.
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  • 65
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    Digitale Medien
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    Natural hazards 16 (1997), S. 135-163 
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; extreme events ; insurance
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract At the same time that a scientific consensus has arisen that the world will most likely experience a changing climate in the near future, with more frequent extreme events of some weather hazards, the insurance industry, worldwide, has been hit with rapidly escalating costs from weather-related disasters. This conjunction of scientific belief and economic impact has raised the questions as to (1) whether more frequent extreme events have contributed to the rising insurance costs and (2) how will future climate change affect the industry? Based upon historical data, it is difficult to support the hypothesis that the recent run of disasters both world-wide and in Canada are caused by climate change; more likely other factors such as increased wealth, urbanization, and population migration to vulnerable areas are of significance. It seems likely, though, that in the future some extreme events such as convective storms (causing heavy downpours, hail and tornadoes), drought and heat waves will result in increased costs to the industry, should the climate change as anticipated.
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  • 66
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    GeoJournal 42 (1997), S. 55-63 
    ISSN: 1572-9893
    Schlagwort(e): attribution ; climate change ; detection ; greenhouse gases ; IPCC ; ozone ; sulphate aerosols
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract IPCC’s statement in its 1995 report (IPCC 1996) that a human influence was discernible in global climate has been widely quoted but often misunderstood. The character of the evidence underpinning this ‘detection statement’ is explained so that its strengths and weaknesses can be better understood and the subtleties of its message better appreciated. To demonstrate the close linkage between the government-approved summary and the underlying chapters of the IPCC report the detailed evolution of the ‘detection statement’ from first draft through to the form finally approved by the IPCC is described.
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  • 67
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    Digitale Medien
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    Biogeochemistry 36 (1997), S. 239-260 
    ISSN: 1573-515X
    Schlagwort(e): boreal forests ; carbon balance ; climate change ; climatic warming ; podzols ; soil carbon
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Chemie und Pharmazie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract A total of 30 coniferous forest sites representing two productivityclasses, forest types, were investigated on a temperature gradient(effective temperature sum using +5°C threshold 800–1300degree-days and annual mean temperature –0.6–+3.9°C) inFinland for studying the effect of thermoclimate on the soil C storage.Other soil forming factors were standardized within the forest types sothat the variation in the soil C density could be related to temperature.According to the applied regression model, the C density of the 0–1 mmineral soil layer increased 0.266 kg m–2 for every 100 degree-dayincrease in the temperature sum, and the layer contained 57% and28% more C under the warmest conditions of the gradient comparedto the coolest in the less and more productive forest type, respectively.Accordingly, this soil layer was estimated to contain 23 more C ina new equilibrium with a 4°C higher annual meantemperature in Finland. The C density of the organic layer was notassociated with temperature. Both soil layers contained more C at thesites of the more productive forest type, and the forest type explained36% and 70% of the variation in the C density of the organic and 0–1m layers, respectively. Within the forest types, the temperature sumaccounted for 33–41% of the variation in the 0–1 m layer. Theseresults suggest that site productivity is a cause for the large variation inthe soil C density within the boreal zone, and relating the soil C densityto site productivity and temperature would help to estimate the soil Creserves more accurately in the boreal zone.
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  • 68
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    Digitale Medien
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    Biogeochemistry 37 (1997), S. 77-88 
    ISSN: 1573-515X
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; elevated carbon dioxide ; hydrology ; methane ; transpiration ; wetlands
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Chemie und Pharmazie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract Methane emissions from wetland soils are generally a positive function ofplant size and primary productivity, and may be expected to increase dueto enhanced rates of plant growth in a future atmosphere of elevatedCO2. We performed two experiments with Orontium aquaticum, acommon emergent aquatic macrophyte in temperate and sub-tropical wetlands, todetermine if enhanced rates of photosynthesis in elevated CO2atmospheres would increase CH4 emissions from wetland soils.O. aquaticum was grown from seed in soil cores under ambient and elevated(ca. 2-times ambient) concentrations of CO2 in an initialglasshouse study lasting 3 months and then a growth chamber study lasting 6months. Photosynthetic rates were 54 to 71% higher underelevated CO2 than ambient CO2, but plantbiomass was not significantly different at the end of the experiment. Ineach case, CH4 emissions were higher under elevated thanambient CO2 levels after 2 to 4 months of treatment, suggestinga close coupling between photosynthesis and methanogenesis in our plant-soilsystem. Methane emissions in the growth chamber study increased by 136%. We observed a significant decrease in transpirationrates under elevated CO2 in the growth chamber study, andspeculate that elevated CO2 may also stimulate CH4 emissions by increasing the extent and duration offlooding in some wetland ecosystems. Elevated CO2 maydramatically increase CH4 emissions from wetlands, a sourcethat currently accounts for 40% of global emissions.
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  • 69
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    Studia geophysica et geodaetica 41 (1997), S. 225-246 
    ISSN: 1573-1626
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; borehole temperature ; ground and air temperature
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Notizen: Abstract Borehole temperatures in the central and south Urals were analysed for the past ground surface temperature (GST) signal. 31 highquality temperature logs were selected for this purpose and inverted with algorithms based on the generalised least squares theory. The signal to noise ratio was improved by averaging the results of individual borehole inversions. No distinct regional trends were found in the studied region except for some indications of more pronounced warming in the south. The mean GST history (GSTH) was characterised by cooling down to −0.6 °C in the 18th century and subsequent warming to 0.5 °C above the longterm mean at the beginning of this century, and to 1 – 1.5 °C by 1980. The stability of the mean GSTH was tested in dependence on the number of holes used for the averaging. It showed that any subset of 15 holes yielded a GSTH similar to that obtained from the whole set. A surface air temperature (SAT) time series comprising the period 1832 – 1989 was combined from 17 meteorological records. Its least squares warming rate of 1.1 °C per 100 years is somewhat higher than that of the GST (0.7 – 0.8°C/100 years) in the same period.
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  • 70
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    Pure and applied geophysics 147 (1996), S. 537-550 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Schlagwort(e): Borehole temperature ; climate change ; inversion
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Notizen: Abstract Ground surface temperature histories (GSTHs) inferred from borehole temperaturedepth (T-z) data are often degraded, to a various extent, by random or systematic noise in theT-z data and in the measurements of thermophysical properties of the earth. To minimize the effects of noise, and hence improve the fidelity of the inferred GSTH, a plausible approach is to perform a simultaneous inversion, of theT-z logs in a region, or alternatively, to invert the individualT-z logs and then average the resulting GSTHs. Averaging and simultaneous inversion are conceptually different: whereas an averaging can always be peformed, a simultaneous inversion is predicated on the assumption of a common transient component of the GSTH in all theT-z logs. In this work we examine and compare the two approaches, using a time domain inverse formulation based on the method of least squares. We consider a set of scenarios: (a) multipleT-z logs from a single borehole, (b) multiple boreholes from a single site, (c) multiple boreholes in similar climatological settings, and (d) multiple boreholes in different climatological settings. We show that for (a), (b) and (c), averaging and simultaneous inversion yield nearly identical results. For boreholes in different settings, the assumption of a common transient GSTH may be invalid and averaging and simultaneous inversion give divergent results.
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  • 71
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    Journal of paleolimnology 15 (1996), S. 133-145 
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Schlagwort(e): Bahamas ; Holocene ; fire history ; climate change ; human disturbance ; charcoal stratigraphy ; pollen analysis
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Biologie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract A 2 m sediment core from Church's Blue Hole on Andros Island, Bahamas provides the first paleoecological record from the Bahama Archipelago. The timing of events in the lower portion of the core is uncertain due to inconsistencies in the radiocarbon chronology, but there is evidence that a late Holocene dry period altered the limnology of Church's Blue Hole and supported only dry shrubland around the site. The dry period on Andros may correlate with a widespread dry period in the Caribbean from 3200 to 1500 yr BP. After the dry period ended, a more mesic climate supported tropical hardwood thicket around Church's Blue Hole. At c. 740 radiocarbon yr BP there is a sudden rise in charcoal concentration and a rapid transition to pinewoods vegetation, while at c. 430 radiocarbon yr BP charcoal concentration drops, but is higher again near the top of the core. Although climatic shifts could have caused these changes in vegetation and charcoal concentration, the changes post-date human colonization of the Bahamas and may reflect human arrival, followed by the removal of humans c. 1530 AD and the recolonization of Andros Island c. 200 years later.
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  • 72
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1996), S. 139-165 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): Adaptation ; agriculture ; agroforestry ; climate change ; drought ; ecological degradation ; factor bias ; Senegal ; sustainability ; social relations
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract The ongoing drought in the Sahel region of West Africa highlights the vulnerability of food-producing systems to climate change and variability. Adaptation to climate should therefore increase the sustainability of agriculture under a long-term drought. Progress towards sustainability and adaptation in the the Senegal River Basin is hampered by an existing set of social and ecological relationships that define the control over the means of production and how people interact with their environment. These relationships are sensitive to the technological inputs and the administration of food production, or the factor bias in the different policy alternatives for rural development. One option is based on state-controlled, irrigated plantations to provide rice (Oryza) for the capital, Dakar. This policy emphasizes a top-down management approach, mechanized agriculture and a reliance on external inputs which strengthens the relationships introduced during the colonial period. A time series decomposition of the annual flow in the Senegal River at Bakel in Senegal suggests that water resources availability has been substantially curtailed since 1960, and a review of the water resources budget or availability in the basin suggests that this policy's food production system is not sustainable under the current climate of the basin. Under these conditions, this program is exacerbating existing problems of landscape degradation and desertification, which increases rural poverty. A natural resource management policy offers two adaptation strategies that favour decentralized management and a reduction of external inputs. The first alternative, “Les Perimetres Irrigués”, emphasizes village-scale irrigation, low water consumption cereal crops and traditional socio-political structures. The second alternative emphasizes farm-level irrigation and agro-forestry projects to redress the primary effects of desertification. The water requirements of both the rice import substitution program and the natural resource management program are calculated. A water resources simulation model/optimization analysis using dynamic programming is used to compare these two alternatives to the rice import substitution programs. Results indicate that the natural resource management policy could potentially bring a large area into production while using far less water than the rice import substitution program. The natural resource management policy, in particular the second alternative with its emphasis on individual ownership and ecological rehabiliation, defines a different set of social and ecological relationships that appear to enhance the sustainability of food production under a long-term drought.
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  • 73
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1996), S. 51-71 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; Finland ; greenhouse gas inventory
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract Guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were used to assess a greenhouse gas inventory for land use change and forestry in Finland. In 1952, managed forests represented a carbon (C) sink of 2.3 Tg yr-1 (Tg=teragram=1012g) in terms of total biomass growth and drain, converted into respective biomass. In 1960, forests were a carbon source of 0.1 Tg C yr-1, but since 1970 the size of the forest C sink has increased from 0.5 Tg yr-1 to 8.3 Tg yr-1 in 1990. If the future use of the forest resources remains at the level of late 1980s, the size of forest C sink could increase to 14.2 Tg yr-1 by 2010 and to 24.9 Tg yr-1 by 2030. The maximum use of the forest resources could result in a 2.2 Tg yr-1 C source by 2010, and in a 0.8 Tg yr-1 source by 2030. The average annual C balance for the period 1991–2030 could amount to −0.5−17.6 Tg yr-1, depending on the use of forest resources. Carbon emissions related to forest drainage and soil preparation seem to be extremely uncertain, although they seem to have a potential to decrease the sinks substantially. On the other hand, taking roundwood import, and wood products more precisely, into consideration would increase the C sink. Changing climate may increase carbon accumulation in forests and affect the sink.
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  • 74
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1996), S. 73-93 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; climate policy ; the Netherlands
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract The development of an international climate policy builds on national policy perspectives. These depend on the perceived risks of climate change, socioeconomic and cultural characteristics of the nations and regions involved, and the technical feasibility of policy measures. Scientific and technological research supports the policy making process about these issues. The perspectives of the scientific community and the policy makers differ and as a consequence communication is often troublesome. The construction and utilization of knowledge under such circumstances can only be effective if all parties involved engage in a continuous dialogue about causes, effects, impacts and responses. This paper describes a project carried out in the Netherlands. It has as its major objective the articulation of a variety of perceptions and positions related to climate change. As a result of the project, policy actors produced five policy options and formulated research questions. The policy options are linked in the framework of a policy life cycle. Research questions focus on the risks of climate change and on feasible social, economic, cultural and technological responses to it. As to the policy options, striving for common means appears to be more promising than pursuing shared goals and philosophies.
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  • 75
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1996), S. 73-93 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; climate policy ; the Netherlands
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract The development of an international climate policy builds on national policy perspectives. These depend on the perceived risks of climate change, socioeconomic and cultural characteristics of the nations and regions involved, and the technical feasibility of policy measures. Scientific and technological research supports the policy making process about these issues. The perspectives of the scientific community and the policy makers differ and as a consequence communication is often troublesome. The construction and utilization of knowledge under such circumstances can only be effective if all parties involved engage in a continuous dialogue about causes, effects, impacts and responses. This paper describes a project carried out in the Netherlands. It has as its major objective the articulation of a variety of perceptions and positions related to climate change. As a result of the project, policy actors produced five policy options and formulated research questions. The policy options are linked in the framework of a policy life cycle. Research questions focus on the risks of climate change and on feasible social, economic, cultural and technological responses to it. As to the policy options, striving for common means appears to be more promising than pursuing shared goals and philosophies.
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  • 76
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1996), S. 51-71 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; Finland ; greenhouse gas inventory
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract Guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were used to assess a greenhouse gas inventory for land use change and forestry in Finland. In 1952, managed forests represented a carbon (C) sink of 2.3 Tg yr−1 (Tg = teragram = 1012g) in terms of total biomass growth and drain, converted into respective biomass. In 1960, forests were a carbon source of 0.1 Tg C yr−1, but since 1970 the size of the forest C sink has increased from 0.5 Tg yr−1 to 8.3 Tg yr−1 in 1990. If the future use of the forest resources remains at the level of late 1980s, the size of forest C sink could increase to 14.2 Tg yr−1 by 2010 and to 24.9 Tg yr−1 by 2030. The maximum use of the forest resources could result in a 2.2 Tg yr−1 C source by 2010, and in a 0.8 Tg yr−1 source by 2030. The average annual C balance for the period 1991–2030 could amount to −0.5–17.6 Tg yr−1, depending on the use of forest resources. Carbon emissions related to forest drainage and soil preparation seem to be extremely uncertain, although they seem to have a potential to decrease the sinks substantially. On the other hand, taking roundwood import, and wood products more precisely, into consideration would increase the C sink. Changing climate may increase carbon accumulation in forests and affect the sink.
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  • 77
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1996), S. 139-165 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): Adaptation ; agriculture ; agroforestry ; climate change ; drought ; ecological degradation ; factor bias ; Senegal ; sustainability ; social relations
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract The ongoing drought in the Sahel region of West Africa highlights the vulnerability of food-producing systems to climate change and variability. Adaptation to climate should therefore increase the sustainability of agriculture under a long-term drought. Progress towards sustainability and adaptation in the the Senegal River Basin is hampered by an existing set of social and ecological relationships that define the control over the means of production and how people interact with their environment. These relationships are sensitive to the technological inputs and the administration of food production, or the factor bias in the different policy alternatives for rural development. One option is based on state-controlled, irrigated plantations to provide rice (Oryza) for the capital, Dakar. This policy emphasizes a top-down management approach, mechanized agriculture and a reliance on external inputs which strengthens the relationships introduced during the colonial period. A time series decomposition of the annual flow in the Senegal River at Bakel in Senegal suggests that water resources availability has been substantially curtailed since 1960, and a review of the water resources budget or availability in the basin suggests that this policy's food production system is not sustainable under the current climate of the basin. Under these conditions, this program is exacerbating existing problems of landscape degradation and desertification, which increases rural poverty. A natural resource management policy offers two adaptation strategies that favour decentralized management and a reduction of external inputs. The first alternative, “Les Perimetres Irrigués”, emphasizes village-scale irrigation, low water consumption cereal crops and traditional socio-political structures. The second alternative emphasizes farm-level irrigation and agro-forestry projects to redress the primary effects of desertification. The water requirements of both the rice import substitution program and the natural resource management program are calculated. A water resources simulation model/optimization analysis using dynamic programming is used to compare these two alternatives to the rice import substitution programs. Results indicate that the natural resource management policy could potentially bring a large area into production while using far less water than the rice import substitution program. The natural resource management policy, in particular the second alternative with its emphasis on individual ownership and ecological rehabiliation, defines a different set of social and ecological relationships that appear to enhance the sustainability of food production under a long-term drought.
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  • 78
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    Water resources management 10 (1996), S. 463-478 
    ISSN: 1573-1650
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; reservoir operation ; streamflow generation
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract The potential impacts of changing climatic conditions on the operational performance of water resource systems was investigated in this paper. A multi-site streamflow generation model was used to synthesize potential monthly flow sequences reflecting two different sets of climatic conditions. The generated data were subsequently employed as input to a reservoir operation model that was used to determine the reservoir response to the inflow resulting from the implementation of the reservoir operating policy. The performance of an example reservoir system, the Shellmouth Reservoir located in the Canadian province of Manitoba, was evaluated and compared for the two sets of conditions. The operational performance was evaluated in terms of the reliability of the system for meeting the three purposes of the actual reservoir. The reservoir performance was determined to be sensitive to the inflow data. The results indicate that climatic change has potentially important implications for the operation of the example reservoir system.
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  • 79
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    Biogeochemistry 33 (1996), S. 149-177 
    ISSN: 1573-515X
    Schlagwort(e): Atlantic estuaries ; climate change ; climatic variability ; coastal management ; nitrate flux ; seasonal variability
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Chemie und Pharmazie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract Streamflow-related variability in nutrient flux represents an important source of uncertainty in managing nutrient inputs to coastal ecosystems. Quantification of flux variability is of particular interest to coastal resource managers in adopting effective nutrient-reduction goals and monitoring progress towards these goals. We used historical records of streamflow and water-quality measurements for 104 river monitoring stations in an analysis of variability in annual and seasonal flux of nitrate to the Atlantic coastal zone. We present two measures of temporal flux variability: the coefficient of variation (CV) and the exceedence probability (EP) of 1.5 times the median flux. The magnitude of flux variations spans a very wide range and depends importantly upon the season of year and the climatic and land-use characteristics of the tributary watersheds. Year-to-year variations (CV) in annual mean flux range over two orders of magnitude, from 3–200% of the long-term mean flux, although variations more typically range from 20–40% of the long-term mean. The annual probability of exceeding the long-term median flux by more than 50% (EP) is less than 0.10 in most rivers, but is between 0.10 and 0.35 in 40% of the rivers. Year-to-year variability in seasonal mean flux commonly exceeds that in annual flux by a factor of 1.5 to 4. In western Gulf of Mexico coastal rivers, the year-to-year variablity in the seasonal mean flux is larger than in other regions, and is of a similar magnitude in all seasons. By contrast, in Atlantic coastal rivers, the winter and spring seasons, which account for about 70% of the annual flux, display the smallest relative variability in seasonal mean flux. We quantify the elasticity of nutrient flux to hypothetical changes in Streamflow (i.e., the percent increase in flux per percentage increase in mean discharge) to allow the approximation of flux variability from streamflow records and the estimation of the effects of future climatically-induced changes in Streamflow on nutrient flux. Flux elasticities are less than unity (median = 0.93%) at most stations, but vary widely from 0.05% to 1.59%. Elasticities above unity occur most frequently in the largest rivers and in rivers draining the arid portions of the western Gulf of Mexico Basin. Historical flux variability and elasticity generally increase with the extent of arid conditions and the quantity of nonurban land use in the watershed. We extend the analysis of flux variability to examine several case studies of highly unusual meteorological events capable of significantly elevating nitrate flux and degrading estuarine ecology.
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  • 80
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    Biogeochemistry 32 (1996), S. 53-67 
    ISSN: 1573-515X
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; feedback ; greenhouse gas ; methane oxidation ; montane meadow ; sagebrush
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Chemie und Pharmazie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract We report here three years of field observations of methane uptake, averaging 1.2 mg CH4 m−2 d−1 in montane meadow soils. Surface soil moisture influenced diffusion of substrate while in deeper soil, where methane oxidation was maximum, moisture influenced both diffusion and microbial activity. Microbial oxidation of methane was maximum at an intermediate level of soil moisture, at this site at about 25% moisture by weight (50% water holding capacity). Laboratory incubations also showed inhibition below 20% moisture. These results provide in situ characterization of moisture limitation of methanotroph activity and evidence that soil drying may diminish the methane sink strength. The microbial limitation to methane consumption at low soil moisture provides a mechanism for positive feedback between methane flux and climate warming, as suggested by ice core data (Blunier et al. 1993; Chappellaz et al. 1990; Stauffer et al. 1985).
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  • 81
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    Journal of paleolimnology 13 (1995), S. 179-191 
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Schlagwort(e): maritime Antarctic ; Signy Island ; lakes ; sediments ; Pb-210 ; Cs-137 ; radionuclide fluxes ; climate change
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Biologie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract Sediment cores from three lakes (Moss, Sombre and Heywood) in the maritime Antarctic (Signy Island, South Orkney Islands) have been successfully dated radiometrically by210Pb and137Cs. The core inventories of both fallout radionuclides are an order of magnitude higher than that which can be supported by the direct atmospheric flux at this latitude. The elevated values may be explained by fallout onto the catchment during the winter being delivered directly to the lakes during the annual thaw. Two of the lakes (Sombre and Heywood) show marked increases in sediment accumulation afterc. 1950. This appears to be associated with a documented rise in temperature in the South Orkney Islands, which has caused extensive deglaciation at Signy Island.
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  • 82
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    Journal of paleolimnology 14 (1995), S. 165-184 
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Schlagwort(e): Lake Baikal ; Russia ; paleolimnology ; diatoms ; chrysophyte cysts ; Little Ice Age ; climate change
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Biologie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract As part of the international cooperative Baikal Drilling Project, siliceous microfossil assemblage succession was analyzed in two short (∼ 30-cm) sediment cores from Lake Baikal. One core was recovered from the north basin (Core 324, 55°15′N, 109°30′E), a second from between the central and southern basins (Core 316, 52°28′N, 106°5′E). The northern core had higher amounts of biogenic silica (40 g SiO2 per 100 g dry weight sediment) compared to the southern core, and increased deposition in the more recent sediments. Weight percent biogenic silica was lower in the southern core, ranging from approximately 20–30 g SiO2 per 100 g dry weight sediment throughout the entire core. Trends in absolute microfossil abundance mirror those of biogenic silica, with generally greater abundance in the northern core (86–275×106 microfossils g−1 dry sediment) compared to the southern core (94–163×106 microfossils g−1 dry sediment). Cluster analyses using relative abundance of the dominant diatom and chrysophyte taxa revealed four zones of microfossil succession in each core. Microfossil assemblage succession in the north basin may be reflecting shifts in nutrient supply and cycling driven by climatic changes. The most recent sediments in the northern basin (Zone 1,c. 1890's–1991 A.D.) were characterized by an increased abundance ofAulacoseira baicalensis andAulacoseira ‘spore’. Zone 3 (c. 1630's–1830's A.D.) was dominated by the endemicCyclotella spp. and reduced abundance of theAulacoseira spp. Zone 3 corresponds approximately to the Little Ice Age, a cooler climatic period. The microfossil assemblages between Zones 1 and 3 (Zone 2,c. 1830's–1890's A.D.) and below Zone 3 (Zone 4,c. 830's–1430's A.D.) are similar to one another suggesting they represent transitional intervals between warm and cold periods. Southern basin sediments record similar changes in the endemic taxa. However, the increased abundance of non-endemic planktonic taxa (e.g.Stephanodiscus binderanus, Synedra acus, Cyclostephanos dubius) during two periods in recent history (post World War II and late 1700's) suggests evidence for anthropogenic induced changes in southern Lake Baikal.
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  • 83
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    Natural hazards 12 (1995), S. 19-27 
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Schlagwort(e): Tornadoes ; climate change ; prairies
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract A comparison of tornado frequency in western Canada before and after 1980 suggests that tornado frequency increases (decreases) with positive (negative) mean monthly temperature anomalies. If climate warming occurs due to increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the inference that more tornadoes will occur seems reasonable.
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  • 84
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Schlagwort(e): Late Quaternary ; diatoms ; pollen ; climate change ; tephra ; shallow alpine and sub-alpine Iakes ; British Columbia
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Biologie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract The late Quaternary diatom records from alpine Opabin Lake (altitude 2285 m a.s.l.) and sub-alpine Mary Lake (altitude 2054 m a.s.l.), located in Yoho National Park, British Columbia (lat. 51 ° 21′N; long. 116 ° 20′), have been analyzed, and changes in these records have been used to reconstruct lake histories. The results have also been related to independently inferred vegetation and climate changes. Following deglaciation, when both lakes were receiving high inputs of clastic materials, benthic diatom taxa dominate the records of these two shallow lakes with small species ofFragilaria being particularly prominent. During the early to mid-Holocene period, when treeline was at a higher elevation than today, the diatom flora of both lakes became more diverse with previously minor species becoming more prominent.Cyclotella radiosa occurs in cores from both Mary Lake, and much deeper, neighbouring Lake O'Hara during the warm early Holocene, and may reflect this warmer climate, a longer ice-free season than presently, and perhaps less turbid water, or its presence may reflect a subtly higher nutrient status of the lake water during this period. The Neoglacial is marked by increased amounts of sediments originating from glacial sources in Opabin Lake, which undoubtedly led to very turbid water, and by the presence ofEllerbeckia arenaria f.teres andCampylodiscus noricus v.hibernica in Opabin Lake; however, these species are absent from Mary Lake which has not been influenced by either glacial activity since the recession of the glaciers prior toc. 10 000 years BP or water originating from Opabin Lake. The impact of the two tephras during the Holocene was dramatic in terms of increased diatom production, as exemplified by the increases in diatom numbers, but there was little effect upon species composition. The diatom records and changes in the diatom:cyst ratio suggest that the chemical status of these two small, shallow lakes has changed little during the Holocene, other than after deposition of the two tephras. These results provide evidence that shallow alpine and high sub-alpine lakes are sensitive recorders of past environmental changes.
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  • 85
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    Journal of paleolimnology 12 (1994), S. 65-74 
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Schlagwort(e): forest dynamics ; peatland development ; mountain environments ; Castanea ; Sphagnum ; Quaternary ; pollen analysis ; human impact ; climate change ; USSR
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Biologie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract A pollen sequence spanning over 4000 years was recovered from a small (0.1 ha)Sphagnum-dominated peatland in the mountains near Sukhumi, Abkhasia, West Georgia. The peatland lies atc. 1650 m a.s.l. in denseFagus-Abies forest. The pollen record reveals totally forested surroundings throughout since at least 4000 years BP (90–95% AP). It begins with a complex forest dominated byFagus with large proportions ofCastanea, Acer andUlmus. ThenCastanea became dominant whileFagus was still prominent. This might indicate a warmer climate. Later development shows a dramatic decline ofCastanea. Its pollen drops down to 3–5%. RecentlyAbies has been experiencing an exponential growth. Now it comprises over 50% of the forest composition around the peatland. These changes have possibly been caused by human influence together with climatic change. The basin started as aPotamogeton-dominated shallow lake with ferns andAlisma along the margins. Later it developed into a sedge fen and finally aSphagnum andMenyanthes poor fen with scatteredCarex limosa. The record indicates a progression towards oligotrophy.
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  • 86
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Schlagwort(e): carbon cycling ; climate change ; organic matter ; peat ; peatland ; Sphagnum
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Biologie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract Using210Pb-dating of peat cores, corroborated by pollen and acid-insoluble ash approaches, rates of vertical height growth, dry mass accumulation, and organic matter accumulation were determined for fiveSphagnum-dominated peatland sites (one in Minnesota, one in Pennsylvania, one on the Maryland/West Virginia border, two in West Virginia), spanning a mean annual temperature range of 4.5 °C and differing in total annual precipitation by a factor of almost 2. Site differences in rates of vertical height growth and dry mass accumulation were documented, but both within-core and between-site differences in bulk density and ash concentrations of peat confound efforts to relate vertical height growth and dry mass accumulation to net organic matter accumulation. Taking bulk densities and ash concentrations into account, rates of net organic matter accumulation over the past 150–200 years were strikingly similar at four of the five sites, an unexpected result given the general trend that with decreasing latitude, peat deposits become older, thinner, and more highly decomposed. More comprehensive studies are needed in which net organic matter accumulation is determined at several locations within a single peatland, at several peatlands within a particular geographic/climatic region, and at peatland sites in different geographic/climatic regions. If additional studies confirm that recent (past 200 years) net organic matter accumulation is relatively insensitive to broad-scale regional climatic differences, boreal and subarctic peatlands may continue to function as a net sink for atmospheric CO2 and a net source of atmospheric CH4 with no change in rates of net organic matter accumulation, even under predicted scenarios of global climate change.
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  • 87
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Schlagwort(e): diatoms ; paleolimnology ; palynology ; Holocene ; climate change ; Lake Baikal
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Biologie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract The biostratigraphy of fossil diatoms contributes important chronologic, paleolimnologic, and paleoclimatic information from Lake Baikal in southeastern Siberia. Diatoms are the dominant and best preserved microfossils in the sediments, and distinctive assemblages and species provide inter-core correlations throughout the basin at millennial to centennial scales, in both high and low sedimentation-rate environments. Distributions of unique species, once dated by radiocarbon, allow diatoms to be used as dating tools for the Holocene history of the lake. Diatom, pollen, and organic geochemical records from site 305, at the foot of the Selenga Delta, provide a history of paleolimnologic and paleoclimatic changes from the late glacial (15 ka) through the Holocene. Before 14 ka diatoms were very rare, probably because excessive turbidity from glacial meltwater entering the lake impeded productivity. Between 14 and 12 ka, lake productivity increased, perhaps as strong winds promoted deep mixing and nutrient regeneration. Pollen evidence suggests a cold shrub — steppe landscape dominated the central Baikal depression at this time. As summer insolation increased, conifers replaced steppe taxa, but diatom productivity declined between 11 and 9 ka perhaps as a result of increased summer turbidity resulting from violent storm runoff entering the lake via short, steep drainages. After 8 ka, drier, but more continental climates prevailed, and the modern diatom flora of Lake Baikal came to prominence. On Academician Ridge, a site of slow sedimentation rates, Holocene diatom assemblages at the top of 10-m cores reappear at deeper levels suggesting that such cores record at least two previous interglacial (or interstadial?) periods. Nevertheless, distinctive species that developed prior to the last glacial period indicate that the dynamics of nutrient cycling in Baikal and the responsible regional climatic environments were not entirely analogous to Holocene conditions. During glacial periods, the deep basin sediments of Lake Baikal are dominated by rapidly deposited clastics entering from large rivers with possibly glaciated headwaters. On the sublacustrine Academician Ridge (depth = 300 m), however, detailed analysis of the diatom biostratigraphy indicates that diastems (hiatuses of minor duration) and (or) highly variable rates of accumulation complicate paleolimnologic and paleoclimatic reconstructions from these records.
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  • 88
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Schlagwort(e): stable isotopes ; ostracods ; climate change ; late glacial ; holocene ; seasonal effects
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Biologie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract High-resolution oxygen-isotope records of benthic ostracods and molluscs from Ammersee, southern Germany, show high-frequency climatic changes during the last deglaciation and parallel in great detail published faunal and floral variations reconstructed from Norwegian Sea sediments and isotope variations in Greenland ice cores. The marine and the terrestrial records give evidence of a synchronous late glacial climatic development in Greenland, NW- and Mid-Europe. However,14C-ages of the supraregional climatic events and of two tephra layers in the marine sediments of the northeastern Atlantic Ocean are significantly older than the14C-ages of the corresponding horizons on land. These differences strongly suggest that major short-term events have affected the exchangeable carbon on earth during the dramatic environmental changes related to the deglaciation and in particular have affected the CO2-distribution within the ocean and between ocean and atmosphere. Dating methods independent of climatic variations and of the global carbon budget should be given priority to refine the timescales of the marine and atmospheric processes during the last deglaciation.
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  • 89
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    Water resources management 7 (1993), S. 273-287 
    ISSN: 1573-1650
    Schlagwort(e): Sacramento model ; rainfall-runoff ; time series ; precipitation ; air temperature ; evapotranspiration ; runoff changes ; climate change ; soil moisture
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract The Sacramento rainfall-runoff model has been used in experiments with 60 year daily series for the Czech part of the Labe River basin; simulations with decreased and/or increased inputs (precipitations, air temperature, evapotranspiration) provide results that could be used to appraise the runoff changes due to climatic warming. Simulations with the modified parameters are used for evaluation of runoff changes caused by landuse changes. For both purposes, the long-term data sets appear to be desirable; it is then possible to take into account ‘accidental’ influences. The simulations also provide, as an output, the water contents in different zones of soil moisture; the relationships among evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and baseflow clearly appear in these results.
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  • 90
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 6 (1992), S. 69-80 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Schlagwort(e): Hydrology ; global circulation models ; statistics ; climate change
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract Many researchers use outputs from large-scale global circulation models of the atmosphere to assess hydrological and other impacts associated with climate change. However, these models cannot capture all climate variations since the physical processes are imperfectly understood and are poorly represented at smaller regional scales. This paper statistically compares model outputs from the global circulation model of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory to historical data for the United States' Laurentian Great Lakes and for the Emba and Ural River basins in the Commonwealth of Independent States (C.I.S.). We use maximum entropy spectral analysis to compare model and data time series, allowing us to both assess statistical predictabilities and to describe the time series in both time and frequency domains. This comparison initiates assessments of the model's representation of the real world and suggests areas of model improvement.
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  • 91
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    Biogeochemistry 15 (1992), S. 151-174 
    ISSN: 1573-515X
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; floodplains ; greenhouse warming ; methane ; simulation models ; wetlands
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Chemie und Pharmazie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract Patterns and rates of wetland methane emissions and their sensitivity to potential climate change are critical components of the global methane cycle. In this study, we use empirical simulation models to investigate these processes in floodplain swamps of the Ogeechee River in Georgia, U.S.A. We developed statistical models that relate methane emissions to monthly climate and river flow based on field observations of methane emissions from this system made during 1987–1989. Models were then applied to observed climate and hydrograph for 1937–1989 and to simulated altered climates. Altered climates were generated from the present-day climate by changing monthly temperatures by a constant amount and/or changing monthly precipitation by a constant proportion, thus altering long-term averages and preserving year-to-year variation. Under the present-day climate regime, simulated methane emissions were variable between years and responded very strongly to changes in river discharge. The long-term average was 27 g C m-2 yr-1, with no significant linear trend over the model period. In the altered climate simulations, methane emissions were very sensitive to changes in precipitation amounts, with a 20% decrease in rainfall resulting in 30–43% declines in methane emissions. Predicted effects of temperature changes on methane emissions were less consistent, and were strongly dependent on assumptions made about the response of evapotranspiration to elevated temperatures. In general, hydrologic impacts of changes in evapotranspiration rates (such as may occur in response to temperature shifts) were more important than direct temperature effects on methane production.
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  • 92
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    Journal of paleolimnology 5 (1991), S. 115-126 
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Schlagwort(e): Lake Lahontan ; lake-level change ; climate change ; paleolimnology ; paleohydrology
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Biologie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract Radiocarbon and uranium-series ages of a variety of materials from the Lahontan basin indicate that the last highstand lake occurred between 14 500 and 13 000 yr B.P. Although few in number, existing radiocarbon and uranium-series age data also indicate that lakes in the western Lahontan subbasins were small or moderate in size between 30 000 and 25 000 yr B.P. Existing data do not support the conclusions of Bradbury et al. (1989) who did not find evidence of a 14 000±yr B.P. highstand lake in the sediments of the Walker Lake subbasin. These data also do not support the existence of a highstand lake in the Walker Lake subbasin between 30 000 and 25 000 yr B.P.
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  • 93
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    International journal of biometeorology 35 (1991), S. 239-251 
    ISSN: 1432-1254
    Schlagwort(e): Modelling ; Ecology ; Response functions
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Abstract This article describes the further development and new applications of the already well-known method of response functions. This method is used to present the quantitative evaluation of the reactions of various ecological and biological systems to environmental impacts. Two ecological problems were chosen as examples: the model of growth and development of cereal crops and the model of pollutant dynamics in the elementary ecosystem. In each case the results are given of the evaluation of parameters and the testing of models. It is shown that the method of response functions allows resolution of the wide range of ecological problems with sufficient accuracy, and some new theoretical results are presented. For example, based on the existing hypotheses of higher plant development, a biological time scale has been worked out. The method was elaborated to determine the minimum time of development, which is a genetically stipulated characteristic of a species and is realized when all environmental factors are optimal.
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  • 94
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    Biology and fertility of soils 9 (1990), S. 93-94 
    ISSN: 1432-0789
    Schlagwort(e): Voucher specimens ; Biology ; Ecology ; Taxonomy ; Soil animals ; Soil biologist
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Biologie , Geologie und Paläontologie , Land- und Forstwirtschaft, Gartenbau, Fischereiwirtschaft, Hauswirtschaft
    Notizen: Summary Voucher specimens ensure that the identity of organisms studied in the field or in laboratory experiments can be verified, and ensure that new species concepts can be applied to past research. Guidelines on the collection, preparation, and deposition of voucher specimens and means of referral to them are given. Type specimens and the nomenclature of species names are briefly described.
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  • 95
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    Journal of atmospheric chemistry 9 (1989), S. 411-417 
    ISSN: 1573-0662
    Schlagwort(e): Trace gases ; carbonyl sulfide ; carbon disulfide ; acid rain ; nitrogen fertilization ; climate change
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Chemie und Pharmazie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract The net fluxes of carbonyl sulfide (COS) and carbon disulfide (CS2) to the atmosphere from nitrogen amended and unamended deciduous and coniferous forest soils were measured during the spring of 1986. We found that emissions of these gases from acidic forest soils were substantially increased after nitrogen fertilization. The total (COS+CS2) emissions were increased by nearly a factor of three in the hardwood stand and were more than doubled in the pine stand. Furthermore, vegetation type appeared to have an influence on which was the dominant sulfur gas released from the forest soils. The added nitrogen caused a dramatic increase in COS emissions from the hardwood stand (a factor of three increase), while CS2 emissions from this site were not affected. We observed the opposite response in the pine stand; that is, the nitrogen fertilization had no affect on COS emissions, but did stimulate CS2 emissions (a factor of more than nine increase).
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  • 96
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    Journal of paleolimnology 1 (1988), S. 249-267 
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Schlagwort(e): paleolimnology ; river diversion ; climate change ; pollen ; diatoms ; ostracodes ; brine shrimp
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Biologie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract Diatoms, crustaceans, and pollen from sediment cores, in conjunction with dated shoreline tufas provide evidence for lake level and environmental fluctuations of Walker Lake in the late Quaternary. Large and rapid changes of lake chemistry and level apparently resulted from variations in the course and discharge of the Walker River. Paleolimnological evidence suggests that the basin contained a relatively deep and slightly saline to freshwater lake before ca. 30 000 years B.P. During the subsequent drawdown, the Walker River apparently shifted its course and flowed northward into the Carson Sink. As a result, Walker Lake shallowed and became saline. During the full glacial, cooler climates with more effective moisture supported a shallow brine lake in the basin even without the Walker River. As glacial climates waned after 15 000 years ago, Walker Lake became a playa. The Walker River returned to its basin 4700 years ago, filling it with fresh water in a few decades. Thereafter, salinity and depth increased as evaporation concentrated inflowing water, until by 3000 years ago Walker Lake was nearly 90 m deep, according to dated shoreline tufas. Lake levels fluctuated throughout this interval in response to variations in Sierra Nevada precipitation and local evaporation. A drought in the Sierras between 2400 and 2000 years ago reduced Walker Lake to a shallow, brine lake. Climate-controlled refilling of the lake beginning 2000 years ago required about one millennium to bring Walker lake near its historic level. Through time, lake basins in the complex Lake Lahontan system, fill and desiccate in response to climatic, tectonic and geomorphic events. Detailed, multidisciplinary paleolimnologic records from related subbasins are required to separate these processes before lake level history can be reliably used to interpret paleoclimatology.
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  • 97
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    Journal of atmospheric chemistry 5 (1987), S. 1-21 
    ISSN: 1573-0662
    Schlagwort(e): Ozone near the ground ; ozone trends ; wet chemical method ; anthropogenic effects ; influence on biosphere ; climate change
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Chemie und Pharmazie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract The ozone concentration near the earth's surface has been measured at some stations in the GDR for more than 30 yr using the wet chemical method. Even at rural stations the ozone data show a significant linear increase by about 1–3% yr−1. The ozone increase being stronger in summer than in winter is assumed to be due to photochemical ozone production from increasing anthropogenic emissions of trace gases that are transported over long distances. A weaker ozone increase by only about 0.2% per year was observed in the free troposphere (5.5 km) from balloon-soundings at Lindenberg within the period 1975–1984. If the ozone trends continue, the ozone concentration near the surface and its seasonal amplitude will have doubled around the turn of the century as compared to the mid-fifties.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 98
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Journal of atmospheric chemistry 3 (1985), S. 153-169 
    ISSN: 1573-0662
    Schlagwort(e): Aerosol: Antarctic/Arctic/atmospheric/baseline/marine ; atmospheric monitoring ; climate change
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Chemie und Pharmazie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract In this paper the results of existing baseline aerosol monitoring programs are reviewed. For this purpose, aerosol data from five baseline stations in both hemispheres are analysed. Their information content is compared to that which can be derived when utilizing experiences of recent field experiments and the present state of aerosol sciences in general. Recommendations for extensions and reductions of baseline aerosol measurements are given.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
    BibTip Andere fanden auch interessant ...
  • 99
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Journal of atmospheric chemistry 3 (1985), S. 53-68 
    ISSN: 1573-0662
    Schlagwort(e): Water vapor ; atmospheric transmission ; aerosol optical depth ; precipitable water pyrheliometer ; climate change
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Chemie und Pharmazie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract Precipitable water measurements made coincident in time and space with direct broadband solar irradiance measurements are used in conjunction with an atmospheric transmission model to derive a parameter whose major dependence is on total aerosol extinction. Irradiance measurements are used to calculate an atmospheric transmission factor (ATF) that is independent of the instrument calibration and the extraterrestrial solar constant. The dependency of the ATF on precipitable water is determined using LOWTRAN5, an atmospheric transmission model with high spectral resolution. Precipitable water measurements are then used to adjust the measured ATF to correspond to an ATF value obtained for a constant precipitable water amount. The remaining variability in the adjusted ATF is due mostly to aerosol extinction. The technique is applied to a 6-year period (1978–1983) for clear-sky mornings at Mauna Loa, Hawaii (MLO). MLO ATF aerosol residuals are compared with independently measured monochromatic aerosol optical depth. Results show that the ATF aerosol residual is nearly equal to the 500 nm aerosol optical depth prior to the eruption of E1 Chichon, at which time a nonlinear time-dependent relationship between the two quantities is evident. ATF aerosol residuals reflect the spectrally integrated aerosol influence on transmission and, therefore, could indicate better than monochromatic optical depth the radiation balance perturbations due to aerosols. The 6-year precipitable water record for MLO, determined from a dual-channel sunphotometer, has a mean value of 0.3 cm. An annual cycle in precipitable water is evident, as is a 4-month 5-standard-deviation “drought” from December 1982 through March 1983.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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