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  • Articles  (34)
  • 05. General::05.03. Educational, History of Science, Public Issues::05.03.99. General or miscellaneous
  • Climate change
  • Response spectra
  • Springer  (34)
  • American Institute of Physics (AIP)
  • 2015-2019  (9)
  • 1990-1994  (25)
  • 1950-1954
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  • Articles  (34)
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  • 1
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    Site response analyses for complex geological and morphological conditions: relevant case-histories from 3rd level seismic microzonation in Central Italy (2019)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-11-16
    Description: The paper presents the results of 5 case studies on complex site e ects selected within the project for the level 3 seismic microzonation of several municipalities of Central Italy dam- aged by the 2016 seismic sequence. The case studies are characterized by di erent geo- logical and morphological con gurations: Monte San Martino is located along a hill slope, Montedinove and Arquata del Tronto villages are located at ridge top whereas Capitignano and Norcia lie in correspondence of sediment- lled valleys. Peculiarities of the sites are constituted by the presence of weathered/jointed rock mass, fault zone, shear wave veloc- ity inversion, complex surface and buried morphologies. These factors make the de ni- tion of the subsoil model and the evaluation of the local response particularly complex and di cult to ascertain. For each site, after the discussion of the subsoil model, the results of site response numerical analyses are presented in terms of ampli cation factors and acceleration response spectra in selected points. The physical phenomena governing the site response have also been investigated at each site by comparing 1D and 2D numerical analyses. Implications are deduced for seismic microzonation studies in similar geological and morphological conditions.
    Description: Published
    Description: 5741–5777
    Description: 5T. Sismologia, geofisica e geologia per l'ingegneria sismica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Seismic microzonation ; Ampli cation factors ; Response spectra ; Numerical analyses ; site response
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 2
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    Relevance of carbon stocks of marine sediments for national greenhouse gas inventories of maritime nations (2017)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Carbon Balance and Management 12 (2017): 10, doi:10.1186/s13021-017-0077-x.
    Description: Determining national carbon stocks is essential in the framework of ongoing climate change mitigation actions. Presently, assessment of carbon stocks in the context of greenhouse gas (GHG)-reporting on a nation-by-nation basis focuses on the terrestrial realm, i.e., carbon held in living plant biomass and soils, and on potential changes in these stocks in response to anthropogenic activities. However, while the ocean and underlying sediments store substantial quantities of carbon, this pool is presently not considered in the context of national inventories. The ongoing disturbances to both terrestrial and marine ecosystems as a consequence of food production, pollution, climate change and other factors, as well as alteration of linkages and C-exchange between continental and oceanic realms, highlight the need for a better understanding of the quantity and vulnerability of carbon stocks in both systems. We present a preliminary comparison of the stocks of organic carbon held in continental margin sediments within the Exclusive Economic Zone of maritime nations with those in their soils. Our study focuses on Namibia, where there is a wealth of marine sediment data, and draws comparisons with sediment data from two other countries with different characteristics, which are Pakistan and the United Kingdom. Results indicate that marine sediment carbon stocks in maritime nations can be similar in magnitude to those of soils. Therefore, if human activities in these areas are managed, carbon stocks in the oceanic realm—particularly over continental margins—could be considered as part of national GHG inventories. This study shows that marine sediment organic carbon stocks can be equal in size or exceed terrestrial carbon stocks of maritime nations. This provides motivation both for improved assessment of sedimentary carbon inventories and for reevaluation of the way that carbon stocks are assessed and valued. The latter carries potential implications for the management of human activities on coastal environments and for their GHG inventories.
    Description: We acknowledge research support from ETH Zurich and the Swiss National Science Foundation.
    Keywords: Carbon stocks ; Sediments ; Oceans ; Climate change ; Exclusive Economic Zone ; Carbon inventory
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 3
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    Ecosystem responses to climate change at a Low Arctic and a High Arctic long-term research site (2017)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Ambio 46, Supple. 1 (2017): 160-173, doi:10.1007/s13280-016-0870-x.
    Description: Long-term measurements of ecological effects of warming are often not statistically significant because of annual variability or signal noise. These are reduced in indicators that filter or reduce the noise around the signal and allow effects of climate warming to emerge. In this way, certain indicators act as medium pass filters integrating the signal over years-to-decades. In the Alaskan Arctic, the 25-year record of warming of air temperature revealed no significant trend, yet environmental and ecological changes prove that warming is affecting the ecosystem. The useful indicators are deep permafrost temperatures, vegetation and shrub biomass, satellite measures of canopy reflectance (NDVI), and chemical measures of soil weathering. In contrast, the 18-year record in the Greenland Arctic revealed an extremely high summer air-warming of 1.3°C/decade; the cover of some plant species increased while the cover of others decreased. Useful indicators of change are NDVI and the active layer thickness.
    Description: The Toolik research was supported in part by NSF Grants DEB 0207150, DEB 1026843, ARC 1107701, and ARC 1504006.
    Keywords: Alaska Toolik ; Climate change ; Ecological effects ; Greenland Zackenberg ; Medium pass filter ; Vegetation
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 4
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    The European experience of educational seismology (2015)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-11-25
    Description: This chapter provides an overview of last two decades, European experiences in educational seismology and describes the different contexts in which they have been developed. The basic idea of these educational projects is that Seismology may represent an efficient communication vehicle for teaching a wide range of basic Earth sci-ence topics through laboratory practices and educational activities. Moreover it is also an effective tool to raise in the young citizens the awareness on the earthquake risk and possible mitigation actions. In this frame several seismic stations with different technologies were installed in schools across Europe. The scientific support of re-searchers and the need to establish strong links between teachers and researchers attribute to the school an active role in the knowledge process using the scientific laboratory practice by adopting the “learning by doing” modern approach of science communication (R. Schank and C. Cleary, 1995, Engines for Education, Ed. Routledge, 248 pp). Some educational activities correlated with seismological projects are presented, following different strategies depending on the country, but all aimed at building a new way to communicate science in the schools. The new vogue is the opening toward social networks and blogs. This generalizes the concept of an educational Geoscience website making it an e-platform for science communication and multimedia data sharing, where researchers, teachers, students and education op-erators can interact and constantly be kept informed of ongoing activities and relevant events. All of these 'seismology at school' initiatives rely on the concept of school networking and will merge in the European project NERA (Network of European Research Infrastructures for Earthquake Risk Assessment and Mitigation, http://www.nera-eu.org/) where a spe-cific workpackage is dedicated to networking school seismology programs.
    Description: Published
    Description: 145-170
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: educational seismology ; educational projects ; learning by doing ; science communication ; school seismology ; 05. General::05.03. Educational, History of Science, Public Issues::05.03.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: book chapter
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  • 5
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    Engineering Geology for Society and Territory - Volume 7: Education, Professional Ethics and Public Recognition of Engineering Geology (2015)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: This book is one out of 8 IAEG XII Congress volumes, and deals with education and the professional ethics, which scientists, regulators, and practitioners of engineering geology inevitably have to face through the purposes, methods, limitations, and findings of their works. This volume presents contributions on the professional responsibilities of engineering geologists; the interaction of engineering geologists with other professionals; recognition of the engineering geological profession and its particular contribution to society, culture, and economy; and implications for the education of engineering geologists at tertiary level and in further education schemes. Issues treated in this volume are: the position of engineering geology within the geo-engineering profession; professional ethics and communication; resource use and re-use; managing risk in a litigious world; engineering and geological responsibility; and engineering geology at tertiary level. The Engineering Geology for Society and Territory volumes of the IAEG XII Congress held in Torino from September 15-19, 2014, analyze the dynamic role of engineering geology in our changing world and build on the four main themes of the congress: Environment, processes, issues, and approaches.
    Description: Published
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: 5A. Energia e georisorse
    Description: 6A. Monitoraggio ambientale, sicurezza e territorio
    Description: open
    Keywords: Geoethics ; Geoeducation ; Professional Ethics ; Engineering Geology ; Communication ; Society ; Risks management ; Georesources ; Geological responsibility ; 05. General::05.03. Educational, History of Science, Public Issues::05.03.99. General or miscellaneous ; 05. General::05.09. Miscellaneous::05.09.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 6
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    Geoethical aspects in the natural hazards management (2015)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The defence against natural hazards involves many actors with different roles: geoscientists, decision makers, local authorities, mass media, citizens. A proper management of georisks requires that each role is well-defined and governed by shared operational protocols, especially during the emergency phase, so that overlapping and misunderstanding don’t jeopardize population safety and economic activities. To achieve good results in this direction, it is necessary to undertake a careful evaluation of the limits and expectations of each component of society and the respect of legitimate aspirations and prerogatives. An effective defence system against natural hazards should be planned rationally and based on scientific data, in order to avoid alarmism among citizens, misleading sensationalism by media, careless decisions by politicians, as well as approximation in managing different phases of the risk cycle. Taking into consideration geoethical aspects related to natural hazards can be helpful to make geoscientists aware of their responsibilities towards society and to clarify the role they can play in the interaction with other actors, aiming at more efficacious actions for georisk mitigation.
    Description: Published
    Description: 59-62
    Description: 4T. Fisica dei terremoti e scenari cosismici
    Description: 4V. Vulcani e ambiente
    Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani
    Description: 6A. Monitoraggio ambientale, sicurezza e territorio
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Geoethics ; Natural hazards ; Risks ; Society ; Responsibility ; 05. General::05.03. Educational, History of Science, Public Issues::05.03.99. General or miscellaneous ; 05. General::05.08. Risk::05.08.99. General or miscellaneous ; 05. General::05.09. Miscellaneous::05.09.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 7
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    What’s the seismic risk perception in Italy? (2015)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Risk perception is a fundamental element in the definition and the adoption of preventive counter-measures. In order to develop effective information and risk communication strategies, the perception of risks and the influencing factors should be known. This paper presents preliminary results of a survey on seismic risk perception in Italy. The research design combines a psychometric and a cultural theoretic approach. More than 5,000 on-line tests have been compiled from January 23rd till July 25th, 2013. The data collected show that in Italy seismic risk perception is strongly underestimated; 86 on 100 Italian citizens, living in the most dangerous zone (namely Zone 1), do not have a correct perception of seismic hazard. From these observations we deem that extremely urgent measures are required in Italy to reach an effective way to communicate seismic risk"This study has benefited from funding provided by the Italian Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri - Dipartimento di Protezione Civile (DPC). This paper does not necessarily represent DPC official opinion and policies".
    Description: Published
    Description: 69-75
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: open
    Keywords: Risk perception ; Seismic hazard ; Hazard communication ; Seismic risk ; 05. General::05.03. Educational, History of Science, Public Issues::05.03.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 8
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    Seismic Microzonation in a Small Municipality: The Canazei Case Study (Trentino, N Italy) (2015)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-02-24
    Description: The results of a detailed seismic microzonation study performed at Canazei (Trentino—Northern Italy) are here presented. We investigated the local seismic response of this small village using a Level 3 seismic microzonation, the most accurate according to the Italian Code of Seismic Microzonation. This method consists of gradual steps of knowledge to consider different aspects of the amplification phenomena. A multidisciplinary approach has been performed, including a local geological study, geophysical investigations, geotechnical characterization of lithologies and numerical analyses. The obtained elastic response spectra were compared to the spectra prescribed by the Italian Building Code. Our results show the geologic and geophysical subsoil heterogeneities, responsible for different local seismic responses in terms of acceleration spectra and amplification factors.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1085-1089
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Seismic microzonation ; Response spectra ; Amplification factor ; Canazei ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.04. Ground motion ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.06. Surveys, measurements, and monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 9
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    Geoscientific Communication Problem with Communities for Disaster Prevention and Land Planning in Peru (2015)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-02-24
    Description: The communication process between the geoscientists and native communities in risk areas can significantly affect disaster prevention and land use planning. In Peru, the problem of disaster prevention is a fundamental policy due to unfamiliarity and deficiency of the associate information on the population. It is possible that talk of disaster prevention it will be an unlikely ideal in a country where most towns have settled on unplanned projects by the constant change and the lack of interest from the authorities in such topics. However, it is anachronistic that the rural communities and towns continue to live without a plan to enable them to improve their quality of life. The correct use of geoscience information in the mass media can help in this work. The characteristics of the enterprise in Peru require more training by professionals in the geosciences and support communication specialists. In this paper, we analyze the problem of communication for disaster prevention in Peru, with the aim of contributing to the articulation of a disaster prevention strategy.
    Description: Published
    Description: 81-83
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: 4V. Vulcani e ambiente
    Description: 6A. Monitoraggio ambientale, sicurezza e territorio
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Communication process ; Disaster prevention ; Risk management ; Peru ; Geoethics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk ; 05. General::05.03. Educational, History of Science, Public Issues::05.03.99. General or miscellaneous ; 05. General::05.08. Risk::05.08.99. General or miscellaneous ; 05. General::05.09. Miscellaneous::05.09.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 10
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Mid-season gas exchange of an alpine grassland under elevated CO2 (1994)
    Springer
    Oecologia 98 (1994), S. 429-435 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-1939
    Keywords: Climate change ; Carbon dioxide ; Altitude ; Photosynthesis ; Water loss
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract Ecosystem net CO2 uptake, evapotranspiration (ET) and night-time CO2 efflux were measured in an alpine grassland dominated by Carex curvula, treated with doubled ambient partial pressure of CO2 via open-top chambers. One quarter of the plots were treated with mineral nutrients to simulate the effect of lowland nitrogen deposition rates. Depending upon fertilizer supply, ecosystem net CO2 uptake per ground area in full sunlight (NCEmax) was 41–81% higher in open-top chambers supplied with doubled ambient partial pressure (p a) of CO2 than in plots receiving ambient CO2. Short-term reversals of the CO2 level suggest that the extent of downward adjustment of canopy photosynthesis under elevated CO2 was 30–40%. ET tended to decline, while water use efficiency (WUE), expressed as the NCEmax:ET ratio, increased more than twofold under elevated CO2. Night-time ecosystem CO2 efflux did not respond to changes in CO2 p a. NCEmax and night-time CO2 efflux were more responsive to mineral fertilizer than the doubling of CO2. This suggests that in these alpine plant communities, atmospheric nutrient input may induce equal or greater effects on gas exchange than increased CO2.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00324233
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  • 11
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Model simulations of dissolved oxygen characteristics of Minnesota lakes: Past and future (1994)
    Springer
    Environmental management 18 (1994), S. 73-92 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-1009
    Keywords: Lakes ; Water Quality ; Dissolved oxygen ; Model ; Climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract A deterministic, one-dimensional, unsteady numerical model has been developed, tested, and applied to simulate mean daily dissolved oxygen (DO) characteristics in 27 lake classes in the state of Minnesota. Reaeration and photosynthesis are the oxygen sources, while respiration, sedimentary, and biochemical water column oxygen demand are the sinks of oxygen in the model. The lake classes are differentiated by surface area (A s), maximum depth (H max), and trophic status expressed as Secchi depth (Z s). Because lake stratification is most important to lake oxygen dynamics, simulated DO characteristics are plotted in terms of a stratification parameterA s/H max 0.25 and Secchi depthZ s. Simulations provide DO profiles on a daily time scale. Specific DO characteristics of ecological and environmental interest are epilimnetic DO, hypolimnetic DO, DO gradient from surface to bottom, and DO minima and maxima. Specific results are as follows: Simulated mean daily and weekly DO values in the epilimnion of all lakes for both past and future climate scenarios are near saturation over the summer season. Hypolimnetic DO values depend strongly on lake morphometry, trophic status, and time throughout the summer season. Future climate conditions are specified as the historical records from 1955 to 1979, adjusted (monthly) by the 2 × CO2 GISS model output to account for doubling of atmospheric CO2. With this climate change, weekly averaged epilimnetic DO is projected to drop by less than 2 mg/liter, and will remain above 7 mg/liter throughout the open water season. The hypolimnetic DO reductions after climate change are on the order of 2–8 mg/liter. Periods of anoxia are longer by as much as 80 days. Those changes would alter water quality dynamics in lakes and have a profound effect on lake ecosystems including indigenous fishes. The results presented are useful for evaluating environmental management options.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02393751
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  • 12
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Ecological indicators of global climate change: A research framework (1994)
    Springer
    Environmental management 18 (1994), S. 489-500 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-1009
    Keywords: Greenhouse gases ; Climate change ; Indicators ; Research ; Ecosystems ; Decisions ; Interdisciplinary
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Large-scale environmental research efforts are conducted under frameworks that provide a common basis for evaluating research in many diverse fields. Such frameworks should be subjected to critical review to determine if they meet crucial expectations. In the case of the US Global Change Research Program, we perceive that most research follows a framework that we define as the predictive model framework. We believe this framework is insufficient for resolving the unprecedented predicaments posed by global change. We recommend a complementary framework, the system response framework, which directs research toward useful indicators of change rather than precise predictions. We further argue that, even if research is complementary and effective under the two frameworks, conclusive results prior to decisions should not be expected. The burden of proof must itself be a continuing topic of open discourse and inquiry.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02400854
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  • 13
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Reconstruction of climate change during the Holocene in western and central Europe based on pollen records of indicator species (1994)
    Springer
    Vegetation history and archaeobotany 3 (1994), S. 65-88 
    Details
    ISSN: 1617-6278
    Keywords: Climate change ; Holocene ; Palynology ; Europe
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Archaeology , Biology
    Notes: Abstract On the basis of distribution maps showing the first pollen occurrences in the Holocene of the well-known climate indicators Hedera, Ilex and Viscum as well as data for Corylus, a series of maps have been prepared that show summer and winter isotherms at various time intervals during the Holocene. From these maps climate curves for Amsterdam, the Netherlands have been set out. These were compared with curves for the Eemian at the same site. In both of these warm periods there is evidence for increased seasonality in the early phases which were relatively continental. Changes in insolation could account for such differences. Summer optima occurred earlier than winter optima. Changes in land-sea distribution are important, especially with regard to the patterns in winter climate. During the latter half of the Eemian, the climate was distinctly more oceanic than in the Holocene. Early in the Holocene, an influx of warm ocean water resulted in higher winter temperatures in the Gulf of Biscay, the Irish Sea, and areas east of Skagerrak-Kattegat. Temperature decline after the climatic optimum was greatest in the north, i.e. at 60°N, where a depression in the order of 2°C in summer and 2–3°C in winter occurred. Temperature decline was less farther south, i.e. at ca. 50°N, where a distinct west-east gradient in temperature change can be observed.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00189928
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  • 14
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Palynological evidence for drier phases during the historical period recorded in the Etang de Berre lagoon, south-eastern France (1994)
    Springer
    Vegetation history and archaeobotany 3 (1994), S. 245-251 
    Details
    ISSN: 1617-6278
    Keywords: Palynology ; Climate change ; historical period ; Etang de Berre, S.E. France
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Archaeology , Biology
    Notes: Abstract A pollen profile from Marais du Sagnas at the northern edge of the Etang de Berre lagoon, west of Marseille, is compared and correlated with a profile (C10) from the southern margin of the lagoon. This new profile extends the pollen record for the area to recent times. The palaeoecological data now available indicate distinct phases of marine influence in the lagoon from about 900 A.D. (non-calibrated) to the 16/17 century. These correspond to historically known drier periods during which it appears that reduced freshwater input facilitated increased influx of saline water.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00195200
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  • 15
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Interactive effects of mycorrhization and elevated carbon dioxide on growth of young pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.) trees (1994)
    Springer
    Plant and soil 167 (1994), S. 325-329 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-5036
    Keywords: Climate change ; elevated carbon dioxide ; growth ; Laccaria laccata ; mycorrhization ; oak ; Quercus robur
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Abstract Pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.) was germinated and grown at ambient CO2 level and 650 ppmv CO2 in the presence and absence of the ectomycorrhizal fungus Laccaria laccata for a total of 6 month under nutrient non-limiting conditions. Mycorrhization and elevated atmospheric CO2 each supported the growth of the trees. Stem height, stem diameter, and dry matter accumulation of pedunculate oak were increased by mycorrhization. Elevated atmospheric CO2 enhanced stem height, stem diameter, fresh weight and dry weight, as well as lateral root formation of the trees. In combination, mycorrhization and elevated atmospheric CO2 had a more than additive, positive effect on tree height and biomass accumulation, and further improved lateral root formation of the trees. From these findings it is suggested that the efficiency of the roots in supporting the growth of the shoot is increased in mycorrhized oak trees at elevated atmospheric CO2.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00007960
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  • 16
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    The impact of climate change on human health: Some international implications (1993)
    Springer
    Cellular and molecular life sciences 49 (1993), S. 969-979 
    Details
    ISSN: 1420-9071
    Keywords: Climate change ; mortality ; heat stress ; vector-borne disease
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Medicine
    Notes: Abstract The objective of this study is to discuss the potential impact of a global warming on various aspects of human health. Changes in heat-related mortality are estimated for four countries: the United States, Canada, the People's Republic of China and Egypt. In addition, the potential confounding impact of increased air pollution is considered. Finally, a framework to analyze two vector-borne diseases, onchocerciasis and malaria, which may spread if temperatures increase, is discussed. Our findings suggest that heat-related mortality is estimated to rise significantly in all four countries if the earth warms, with the greatest impacts in China and Egypt. The most sensitive areas are those with intense but irregular heat waves. In the United States, air pollution does not appear to impact daily mortality significantly when severe weather is present, although it seems to have a slight influence when weather conditions are not stressful.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02125644
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  • 17
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Geologic and hydrologic hazards in glacierized basins in North America resulting from 19th and 20th century global warming (1993)
    Springer
    Natural hazards 8 (1993), S. 121-140 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Keywords: Climate change ; floods ; rockfall ; debris flows ; sedimentation ; glaciers ; North America
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Alpine glacier retreat resulting from global warming since the close of the Little Ice Age in the 19th and 20th centuries has increased the risk and incidence of some geologic and hydrologic hazards in mountainous alpine regions of North America. Abundant loose debris in recently deglaciated areas at the toe of alpine glaciers provides a ready source of sediment during rainstorms or outburst floods. This sediment can cause debris flows and sedimentation problems in downstream areas. Moraines built during the Little Ice Age can trap and store large volumes of water. These natural dams have no controlled outlets and can fail without warning. Many glacier-dammed lakes have grown in size, while ice dams have shrunk, resulting in greater risks of ice-dam failure. The retreat and thinning of glacier ice has left oversteepened, unstable valley walls and has led to increased incidence of rock and debris avalanches.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00605437
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  • 18
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Climate change inferred from analysis of borehole temperatures: First results from Alberta Basin, Canada (1993)
    Springer
    Pure and applied geophysics 140 (1993), S. 655-666 
    Details
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Climate change ; ground temperature ; earth's heat flow
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract High quality temperature measurements have been made to depths of 30 to 220 m at 42 sites in 62 observational hydrogeological wells in Alberta. The temperature profiles commonly show near-surface inversions with a minimum temperature at depths of 30 to 50 m. Thermal modelling suggests a surface temperature history with warming reaching 2°C over the past 30 to 60 years. Recent climate warming evident from the analysis of the air temperature data in the region seems to provide at least a partial explanation of the increased ground temperatures. A sudden increase of the surface ground temperature caused by land clearing may be the other explanation, although modelling of such a sudden increase can only explain the observed temperature-depth data if the onset of such warming is 20–30 years old, which is in disagreement with the history of land development in the studied area. The effect of near-surface inversions of the temperature profiles also has been observed in the forested areas. The above support the climate based effect. The superposition of the climatic effect and man-made activity effect upon the ground warming is a very complicated process calling for considerably more research.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00876582
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    Effects of temperature elevation on a field population of Acyrthosiphon svalbardicum (Hemiptera: Aphididae) on Spitsbergen (1993)
    Springer
    Oecologia 96 (1993), S. 457-465 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-1939
    Keywords: Aphid ; Arctic ; Climate change ; Life-cycle ; Thermal budget
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract A manipulation experiment was carried out on a field population of the aphid Acyrthosiphon svalbardicum near Ny Ålesund, on the high arctic island of Spitsbergen, using cloches to raise temperature. An average rise in temperature of 2.8 deg. C over the summer season markedly advanced the phenology of both the host plant Dryas octopetala and the aphid. Advanced aphid phenology, with concomitant increases in reproductive output and survival, and successful completion of the life-cycle led to an eleven-fold increase in the number of overwintering eggs. Thermal budget requirements in day degrees above 0°C were calculated for key life-cycle stages of the aphid. Temperature data from Ny Ålesund over the past 23 years were used to calculate thermal budgets for the field site over the same period and these were compared with the requirements of the aphid. Each estimated thermal budget was then adjusted to simulate the effect of a +2, +4, and −2deg. C change in average temperature on aphid performance. This retrospective analysis (i) confirms that the life-cycle of A. svalbardicum is well suited to exploit higher summer temperatures, (ii) indicates that the annual success of local populations are sensitive to small changes in temperature and (iii) suggests that the aphid is living at the limits of its thermal range at Ny Ålesund based on its summer thermal budget requirements.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00320502
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    Why the larch bud-moth cycle collapsed in the subalpine larch-cembran pine forests in the year 1990 for the first time since 1850 (1993)
    Springer
    Oecologia 94 (1993), S. 62-66 
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    ISSN: 1432-1939
    Keywords: Zeiraphera diniana ; Population cycle ; Climate change ; Weather impact
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract The larch bud-moth cycle has been observed in the sub-alpine larch-cembran pine forests 16 times since 1850. Infestation is easily recognized by the characteristic red-brown discoloration of the larch crowns due to the wasteful feeding of the bud moth larvae. The heaviest defoliation recurs at intervals of 8.47±0.27 (SE) years, and the larval density per kilogram of larch branches varies more than 10000-fold over four or five generations. The basic regulatory mechanism for this cycle is the induced change in food quality for the two or more subsequent larval generations. Defoliation functions as a negative feedback mechanism acting on larval density. In 1989 local discoloration in the Upper Engadine valley was observed in the usual first focus. In 1990 and 1991, however, instead of the expected widespread defoliation damage, larval densities decreased drastically. Based on extensive field data collected from 1961 to 1991 on the development and the survival of the bud moth (Zeiraphera diniana Gn.) and the phenology of the host, Larix decidua L., this paper shows the effect of weather on survival in the egg stage and on the coincidence of larval hatching with the sprouting of the larch. It is shown that the winter and spring weather conditions in 1989–1991 were conducive to unusually high egg mortality. Since these conditions occurred in three successive generations, population growth was effectively reduced and the cycle collapsed prematurely. Thus the rather persistent cyclicity of the larch-larch bud-moth system was disturbed by weather conditions with a very low probability of occurrence, but due to the inherent high resilience of the system, the next population peak with visible defoliation is expected to occur 1996/1997, provided that the weather conditions return to the climatic standard.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00317302
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    In situ mineralization of nitorgen and phosphorus of arctic soils after perturbations simulating climate change (1993)
    Springer
    Oecologia 95 (1993), S. 179-186 
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    ISSN: 1432-1939
    Keywords: Arctic-Alpine ; Climate change ; N and P mineralization ; Nutrient immobilization ; Soils
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract Seasonal net nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) mineralization was investigated at Abisko, Swedish Lapland in soils of a subarctic heath and in soils of a colder (by about 4° C), high altitude fellfield by (a) using in situ soil incubation in soils which had been shaded or subjected to two levels of increased temperature, combined with (b) reciprocal transplantation of soils between the two sites. Proportionally large and significant net seasonal mineralization of N, in contrast to non-significant P mineralization, was found in untransplanted and transplanted fellfield soil. In contrast, P was mineralized in proportionally large amounts, in contrast to low N mineralization, in the transplanted and untransplanted heath soil. The differences indicate that P was strongly immobilized in relation to N at the fellfield and that N was more strongly immobilized than P in the heath soil. The immobilization in both soils remained high even after a temperature change of 4–5° C experienced by transplanted soils. Air temperature increases of up to 4–5° C in greenhouses resulted in a soil temperature increase of 1–2° C and did not cause any extra increase of net N and P mineralization. The results suggest that soil temperature increases of up to 2° C, which are likely to occur by the end of the next century as an effect of a predicted 4–5° C rise in air temperature, have only small effects on net mineralization in at least two characteristic tundra soils. These effects are probably smaller than the natural fluctuation of plant available nutrients from site to site, even within the same plant community. A further soil temperature increase of up to 4–5° C may enhance decomposition and gross mineralization, but the rate of net mineralization, and hence the change of nutrient availability to the plants, depends on the extent of microbial immobilization of the extra nutrients released.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00323488
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    Leaf carbon isotope discrimination and vegetative responses of Dryas octopetala to temperature and water manipulations in a High Arctic polar semi-desert, Svalbard (1993)
    Springer
    Oecologia 95 (1993), S. 463-469 
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    ISSN: 1432-1939
    Keywords: Arctic physiological ecology ; Carbon isotope discrimination ; Climate change ; Water-use efficiency ; Polar semi-desert
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract Integrative ecophysiological and vegetative responses of Dryas octopetala were measured in response to field perturbations of temperature, precipitation and their interactions in a polar semi-desert in Svalbard, Norway (79°N, 12°E). Leaf carbon isotope discrimination (Δ), total leaf nitrogen concentration and leaf development were determined for photosynthetic leaves collected during the last week of August 1991, after one season of manipulations. Individual leaf weight and the total mass of leaf tissue were significantly lower when water was added, irrespective of temperature regime. Leaf carbon isotope discrimination and estimated long-term c i/c avalues (the ratio of CO2 concentration in leaf intercellular spaces to that in the atmosphere) were significantly higher under all three field manipulation treatments, and Δ was significantly reduced when Dryas was grown under drought conditions in a related greenhouse study. Nitrogen concentrations of plants from the field experiment were significantly lower under warmed conditions regardless of water regime. Our results indicate that changes in environmental conditions in high arctic settings will result in alterations of Dryas leaf gas exchange, as expressed by increases in carbon isotope discrimination, which may be accompanied by shifts in leaf nitrogen content and leaf biomass.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00317428
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    Human impact on the Holocene forest line in the Central Alps (1993)
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    Vegetation history and archaeobotany 2 (1993), S. 145-156 
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    ISSN: 1617-6278
    Keywords: Tree-line ; Holocene ; Anthropogenic impact ; Climate change ; Alps
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Archaeology , Biology
    Notes: Abstract Palaeoecological investigations of a small mire in Ötztal, Tyrol, Austria, situated about 50 m above the potential tree-line, indicates that human impact on the landscape started with burning of heath at approximately 5300 B.P. At about 4800 B.P. a weak increase in important apophytes may reflect the local presence of domestic animals. Between 4000 and 3500 B.P. a clear decline in pastoral activity occurred. From 3000 B.P. a strong increase in the representation of apophytes suggests local summer settlement, while in the interval 2600–2200 B.P. anthropogenic activity declined. After 2150 B.P. there was a marked increase in summer farm activity. Fresh information is presented on tree-line fluctuations during the Holocene: Pinus cembra forest ascended above the present potential tree-line by more than 50–100 m between 9000–8000 B.P., 6000–5500 B.P., and 3800–3000 B.P. A Betula maximum between 7000 and 5500 B.P. is probably due to succession in nearby avalanche tracks, as well as to a higher tree-line. Low humification and low loss-on-ignition values around 6000 B.P. may reflect the Frosnitz stadial (6900–6000 B.P.). The Rootmoos I stadial (5400 B.P.) and probably the early Sub-Atlantic stadial maximum (3000–2300) are also reflected in the physical properties of the peat profile.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00198585
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    Response of the terrestrial biosphere to global climate change and human perturbation (1993)
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    Plant ecology 104-105 (1993), S. 295-305 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-5052
    Keywords: Biogeochemistry ; Biomass ; Carbon cycle ; Climate change ; Fertilization ; Global warming ; Soil organic matter ; Vegetation distribution
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract Despite 20 years of intensive effort to understand the global carbon cycle, the budget for carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is unbalanced. To explain why atmospheric CO2 is not increasing as rapidly as it should be, various workers have suggested that land vegetation acts as a sink for carbon dioxide. Here, I examine various possibilities and find that the evidence for a sink of sufficient magnitude on land is poor. Moreover, it is unlikely that the land vegetation will act as a sink in the postulated warmer global climates of the future. In response to rapid human population growth, destruction of natural ecosystems in the tropics remains a large net source of CO2 for the atmosphere, which is only partially compensated by the potential for carbon storage in temperate and boreal regions. Direct and inadvertent human effects on land vegetation might increase the magnitude of regional CO2 storage on land, but they are unlikely to play a significant role in moderating the potential rate of greenhouse warming in the future.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00048160
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    Environmental policy and the greenhouse effect (1993)
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    Plant ecology 104-105 (1993), S. 357-366 
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    ISSN: 1573-5052
    Keywords: IPCC ; Climate change ; Emission targets ; Environmental standards ; Policy principles
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract Emissions, resulting from human activity, are substantially increasing the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases. This, in turn, is causing an additional average warming of the Earth's surface. This article presents an overview of recent developments in the international discussion on climate change, taking into account the work of other organizations such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The long term and global character of the climate change problem requires an international long term strategy based on internationally agreed principles such as sustainable development and the precautionary principle. Research is needed to further develop risk assessment and environmental quality standards, from which emission targets can be derived. As a first step, governments of many industrialized countries have already set provisional national CO2 emission targets, aimed at stabilization at present levels by the year 2000 and, in some cases, reductions thereafter. Under the auspices of United Nations, negotiations have begun on an international framework climate convention and associated agreements, on, for example, greenhouse gas emissions, forestry and funding mechanisms. Obligations imposed on individual nations may be expected to reflect their responsibility for greenhouse warming; this paper presents some views on the equity of burden sharing.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00048165
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    Implications of increased carbon dioxide levels for carbon input and turnover in soils (1993)
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    Plant ecology 104-105 (1993), S. 283-292 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-5052
    Keywords: Carbon storage ; Climate change ; Mineralisation ; Nitrogen cycle ; Rhizosphere ; Soil organic matter
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract The complexity of the plant-soil system in its interaction with the changing climate is discussed. It is shown that processes at the level of organic matter inputs into the soil and the fluxes and pools involved in the global cycle are not known in sufficient detail to allow an estimation of the future quantitative shifts. Even the direction in which the level of stored carbon in the soil organic matter pool will develop is not clear. The importance of the nitrogen cycle, which is intimately coupled to the carbon cycle through the turnover of soil organic matter is underlined. In its turn, the mineralisation of soil organic matter takes place at a rate which is highly dependent on the nature of inputs and the availability of mineral nutrients. Aspects of shifts in temperature, changes in cultivation practices (reduced tillage) and unintended spreading of inputs in chemical N-fertilizers are of great importance at a regional and global scale. The complexity of the interactions in the process of mineralisation do require further studies to clarify the point whether a substantial and durable additional storage of carbon in soil organic matter is likely, or that shifts in temperature will cause an overriding acceleration of the mineralisation, and trigger a corresponding net release of carbon.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00048159
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    Climate change damage and the trace gas index issue (1993)
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    Environmental and resource economics 3 (1993), S. 41-61 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: Climate change ; environmental policy ; dynamic control ; stock pollutant ; greenhouses gases
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Efficient policies to control trace gas emissions require estimation of an appropriate “exchange rate” among these gases; i.e. the relative value of reducing emissions of each gas. A dynamic stock pollutant model is developed that considers damages associated with both non-climatic and climatic effects of the gases, differing atmospheric lifetimes of the gases, the discount rate, and non-linear damages. The index value and shadow value of control are estimated for carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, methane, nitrous oxide and the 4 major chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). The value of control for short-lived relative to long-lives gases is lower for low discount rates and quadratic compared with linear damages. The relative value of control for all gases falls relative to carbon dioxide if one considers the direct beneficial effects of carbon dioxide on agriculture. The general approach developed in the paper may have application for other environmental problems where multiple substances pose individual risks but also jointly contribute to a single risk.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00338319
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    Impacts of annual weather conditions on forest productivity (1992)
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    International journal of biometeorology 36 (1992), S. 51-57 
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    ISSN: 1432-1254
    Keywords: Forest productivity ; Climate change ; Great Lakes ; Greenhouse effect ; Northern deciduous forest
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Abstract The response of four northern deciduous tree species to annual climate variation is quantified at two intensively measured sites in northern Michigan, USA. Response to changes in temperature and moisture differ with the species and is dependent on other site conditions. Relationships identified in these field studies indicate that projected climate changes may have dramatic effects on the productivity of at least some commercially important tree species in the northern United States.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01208735
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    Precepts, approaches and strategies (1991)
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    Landscape ecology 6 (1991), S. 7-13 
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    ISSN: 1572-9761
    Keywords: Climate change ; sand dunes ; coastal dynamics ; coastal defence ; dune management
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00157740
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    The sand dunes and their vegetation along the Mediterranean coast of France. Their likely response to climatic change (1991)
    Springer
    Landscape ecology 6 (1991), S. 65-75 
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    ISSN: 1572-9761
    Keywords: Climate change ; sand dunes ; wash-over ; vegetation ; Mediterranean ; Golfe du Lion
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract The Golfe du Lion is mainly bordered by low and narrow sand dunes. Since about four decades, 1/3 of its shoreline has been receding, while 1/3 has been prograding and another 1/3 is stable. Several types of dunes may be described mainly depending on storms, high wind frequencies and sand grain size. Vegetation on dune system is distributed along a primary gradient according to sand stability and soil development, and a secondary gradient along slope of dune according to a seasonal cycle of fresh and salt phreatic water level. Global changes in climate may influence these geomorphological and biological structures mainly through:- Winter minimum temperatures changing the distribution of several plant species, especially in the middle part of the Golfe du Lion. - Frequent high storms which cause damages to the front of the dune systems and disrupt the shore. Changes in dune ecosystems will be cyclic so these tendencies will be obvious only upon a long term period.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00157746
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    Selected questions of topical interest in human bioclimatology (1991)
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    International journal of biometeorology 35 (1991), S. 139-150 
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    ISSN: 1432-1254
    Keywords: Human bioclimatology ; Human energy budget ; Bioclimate maps ; Urban climatology ; Climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Abstract This paper deals with the different effects of climate, and the likely impact of climatic change, on the human being, his health and well-being. Those effects follow from consideration of the human energy budget and air pollution, including photooxidants and radiation, the latter especially in the UV-range. The development of tools to produce bioclimate maps, i.e. maps expressed in physiologically significant terms, in different scales up to the high resolution necessary for the microscale urban climate, will be discussed. The most important questions in bioclimate research and its application will be considered.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01049060
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    Differential utilization of summer rains by desert plants (1991)
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    Oecologia 88 (1991), S. 430-434 
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    ISSN: 1432-1939
    Keywords: Hydrogen isotope ratio ; Desert ecology ; Water source ; Climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Summary Seasonal changes in the hydrogen isotope ratios of xylem waters were measured to determine water sources used for growth in desert plants of southern Utah. While all species used winter-spring recharge precipitation for spring growth, utilization of summer rains was life-form dependent. Annuals and succulent perennials exhibited a complete dependence on summer precipitation. Herbaceous and woody perennial species simultaneously utilized both summer precipitation and remaining winter-spring precipitation, with herbaceous species much more reliant on the summer precipitation component. Several of the woody perennials exhibited no response to summer precipitation. Currently, precipitation in southern Utah is evenly partitioned between winter and summer time periods; however, global circulation models predict that summer precipitation will increase in response to anticipated climate change. Our data indicate that components within the community will differentially responde to the change in precipitation patterns. These results are discussed in relation to impact on competition and possible changes in community structure.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00317589
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    Can intensive management increase carbon storage in forests? (1991)
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    Environmental management 15 (1991), S. 475-481 
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    ISSN: 1432-1009
    Keywords: Carbon storage ; Climate change ; Forest management ; Douglas-fir ; Loblolly pine
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract A possible response to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration is to attempt to increase the amount of carbon stored in terrestrial vegetation. One approach to increasing the size of the terrestrial carbon sink is to increase the growth of forests by utilizing intensive forest management practices. This article uses data from the literature and from forest growth and yield models to analyze the impact of three management practices on carbon storage: thinning, fertilization, and control of competing vegetation. Using Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) and loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) as example species, results from experiments with computer simulation models suggest that, for these two species, thinning generally does not increase carbon storage and may actually cause a decrease. The exception is thinning of very dense young stands. Fertilization generally increases carbon storage, although the response can be quite variable. The largest gains in carbon storage are likely to come from fertilizing lower-quality sites and from fertilizing thinned or less dense stands. Forests usually show increased growth in response to fertilization over a wide range of ages. Simulation of the growth of loblolly pine indicates that controlling competing vegetation at an early age helps to maximize stand growth and carbon storage.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02394738
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    Climatic change and its ecological implications at a subantarctic island (1990)
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    Oecologia 85 (1990), S. 14-24 
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    ISSN: 1432-1939
    Keywords: Sub-Antarctic ; Climate change ; Alien biota ; Primary production ; Nutrient cycling
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Summary Marion Island (47°S, 38°E) has one of the most oceanic climates on earth, with consistently low air temperatures, high precipitation, constantly high humidity, and low incident radiation. Since 1968 mean surface air temperature has increased significantly, by 0.025° C year−1. This was strongly associated with corresponding changes in sea surface temperature but only weakly, or not at all, with variations in radiation and precipitation. We suggest that changing sealevel (atmospheric and oceanic) circulation patterns in the region underlie all of these changes. Sub-Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems are characterized by being species-poor and having a simple trophic structure. Marion Island is no exception and a scenario is presented of the implications of climatic change for the structure and functioning of its ecosystem. Primary production on the island is high and consequently the vegetation has a large annual requirement for nutrients. There are no macroherbivores and even the insects play only a small role as herbivores, so most of the energy and nutrients incorporated in primary production go through a detritus, rather than grazing, cycle. Ameliorating temperatures and increasing CO2 levels are expected to increase productivity and nutrient demand even further. However, most of the plant communities occur on soils which have especially low available levels of nutrients and nutrient mineralization from organic reserves is the main bottleneck in nutrient cycling and primary production. Increasing temperatures will not significantly enhance microbially-mediated mineralization rates since soil microbiological processes on the island are strongly limited by waterlogging, rather than by temperature. The island supports large numbers of soil macro-arthropods, which are responsible for most of the nutrient release from peat and litter. The activities of these animals are strongly temperature dependent and increasing temperature will result in enhanced nutrient availability, allowing the potential for increased primary production due to elevated temperature and CO2 levels to be realized. However, housemice occur on the island and have an important influence on the ecosystem, mainly by feeding on soil invertebrates. The mouse population is strongly temperature-limited and appears to be increasing, possibly as a result of ameliorating temperatures. We suggest that an increasing mouse population, through enhanced predation pressure on soil invertebrates, will decrease overall rates of nutrient cycling and cause imbalances between primary production and decomposition. This, along with more direct effects of mice (e.g. granivory) has important implications for vegetation succession and ecosystem structure and functioning on the island. Some of these are already apparent from comparisons with nearby Prince Edward Island where mice do not occur. Other implications of climatic change for the island are presented which emphasize the very marked influences that invasive organisms have on ecosystem structure and functioning. We suggest that changing sealevel circulation patterns, by allowing opportunities for colonization by new biota, may have an even more important influence on terrestrial sub-Antarctic ecosystems than is suggested merely on the basis of associated changes in temperature or precipitation.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00317338
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