ALBERT

Description: Seismic facies analysis can generate a map to describe the spatial distribution characteristics of reservoirs, and therefore plays a critical role in seismic interpretation. To analyse the characteristics of the horizon of interest, it is usually necessary to extract seismic waveforms along the target horizon using a selected time window. The inaccuracy of horizon interpretation often produces some inconsistent phases and leads to inaccurate classification. Therefore, the developed adaptive phase K-means algorithm proposed a sliding time window to extract seismic waveforms. However, setting the maximum offset of the sliding window is difficult in a real data application. A value that is too large may cause the cross-layer problem, whereas a value that is too small reduces the flexibility of the algorithm. To address this disadvantage, this paper proposes a robust K-means (R-K-means) algorithm with a Gaussian-weighted sliding window for seismic waveform classification. The used weights punish those windows distant from the interpretation horizon in the objective function, consequently producing a smaller range of horizon adjustments even when using relatively large maximum offsets and benefitting the generation of stable and reliable seismic facies maps. The application of real seismic data from the F3 block proves the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

Description: This paper successfully applied the geoengineering workflow for integrated well-test analysis to characterise fluid flow in a newly discovered fractured reservoir in the Barents Sea. A reservoir model containing fractures and matrix was built and calibrated using this workflow to match complex pressure transients measured in the field. We outline different geological scenarios that could potentially reproduce the pressure response observed in the field, highlighting the challenge of non-uniqueness when analysing well-test data. However, integrating other field data into the analysis allowed us to narrow the range of uncertainty, enabling the most plausible geological scenario to be taken forward for more detailed reservoir characterisation and history matching. The results provide new insights into the reservoir geology and the key flow processes that generate the pressure response observed in the field. This paper demonstrates that the geoengineering workflow used here can be applied to better characterise naturally fractured reservoirs. We also provide reference solutions for interpreting well-tests in fractured reservoirs where troughs in the pressure derivative are recognisable in the data.

Description: As the robustness for the wave equation-based inversion methods, wave equation migration velocity analysis (WEMVA) is stable for overcoming the multipathing problem and has become popular in recent years. As a rapidly developed method, differential semblance optimisation (DSO) is convenient to implement and can automatically detect the moveout existing in common image gathers (CIGs). However, by implementing in the image domain with the target of minimising moveouts and improving coherence of the CIGs, the DSO method often suffers from imaging artefacts caused by uneven illumination and irregular observation geometry, which may produce poor velocity updates with artefact contamination. To deal with this issue, in this paper, by introducing Wiener-like filters, we modify the conventional image matching-based objective function to a new one by introducing the quadratic Wasserstein metric technique. The new misfit function measures the distance of two distributions obtained by the convolutional filters and target functions. With the new misfit function, the adjoint sources and the corresponding gradients are improved. We apply the new method to two numerical examples and one field dataset. The corresponding results indicate that the new method is robust to compensate low frequency components of velocity models.

Description: Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) populations throughout the North Atlantic have declined in recent decades largely due to reduced marine survival, yet our understanding of marine distribution patterns and migratory routes remains limited. Here, we assigned archived individual samples (n = 3891) collected over a half century (1968–2018) throughout the North Atlantic to region of origin using range-wide genetic assignment. In the Northwest Atlantic, the distribution of assignments reinforced the importance of the Labrador Sea as an aggregation area, with 73% of all reporting groups detected. Moreover, individuals from six European reporting groups were identified in the Northwest Atlantic, and detections decreased with decreasing latitude spanning an area from Greenland to southern Newfoundland. In the Northeast Atlantic, six North American reporting groups were detected in samples from around the Faroe Islands. Based on the distribution of samples, estimates of trans-Atlantic migration distance averaged 3861 and 2889 km for North American and European salmon respectively. Our analysis highlights the widespread importance of the Labrador Sea and Faroe Islands to the species marine distribution patterns, and the prevalence of long-distance trans-Atlantic migration. Ultimately, the results suggest that environmental conditions experienced by many Atlantic salmon populations span much of the North Atlantic Ocean.

Description: Heterotrophic protists are essential components of the marine ecosystem, yet they are often excluded from monitoring programmes. With limited resources, monitoring strategies need to be optimised considering both scientific knowledge and available resources. In doing so, it is crucial to understand how sampling frequency affects the value of the data. We analysed 11 years of weekly heterotrophic protist time-series data from Station L4 in the Western English Channel to explore how different sampling intervals impact data quality. In the L4 dataset, comprising 55 protist taxa, the reduction of sampling frequency from weekly to four times a year at specific seasons decreased the number of taxa encountered by 38% for ciliates and 29% for heterotrophic dinoflagellates while the mean annual biomass or its mean variation were not affected. Furthermore, when samples were taken only four times a year, biomass peaks of the ten most important taxa were often missed. The primary motivator for this study was furthering the development of the heterotrophic protist monitoring in temperate and subarctic marine areas, e.g. the Baltic Sea. Based on our findings, we give recommendations on sampling frequency to optimise the value of heterotrophic protist monitoring.

Description: The Lafaye orbicular body was emplaced in the Villatange tonalite-granodiorite unit of the Guéret magmatic complex (Massif Central, France). It consists of plagioclasic orbicules (4–35 cm diameter) embedded in homogeneous cordierite granodiorite. Orbicule cores consist mostly of residual metasedimentary xenoliths or autolithic plagioclasic cumulates. Rims (0.7–8 cm thickness) are single- or multi-layered; layers, mostly comb-textured, comprise alternating sheets dominated by cordierite (XFe = 0.32–0.37) or plagioclase (mostly An25–30). Additional mineral phases are minor biotite (XFe = 0.52; AlVI = 0.58–0.92 atoms per formula unit) and interstitial quartz. Plagioclase and cordierite morphologies (needle-like, skeletal, branching or fan-shaped) indicate growth under high initial supersaturation. However, the final polyhedral shapes and primary zoning of many individual plagioclase crystals, as well as evidence of partial recrystallization, imply significant textural maturation. Whole-rock major and trace element data (A/CNK = 1.12–1.46) and Sr and Nd isotopic compositions (εNd(355 Ma)  = −8.6 to −7.4; 87Sr/86Sr(355 Ma) = 0.7110–0.7147) suggest that the parental magma of the orbicules resulted from bulk assimilation of aluminous metasediments by a Villatange-type granodioritic magma. Heterogeneous nucleation and growth of plagioclase and cordierite around xenoliths/autoliths are interpreted in terms of (1) adiabatic decompression of magma pulses ascending in dykes leading to superheating and resorption of early solids, and (2) volatile exsolution, inducing undercooling, supersaturation, and rim crystallization. The variability of layers (number, thickness, mineral distribution, and texture) is considered to result from oscillatory crystallization combined with variable plagioclase growth rates linked to changes in the degree of supersaturation as a function of the extent of melt degassing, itself linked to magma transfer dynamics.

Description: The high fluxes of iron minerals associated with aeolian dry deposition may result in an anomalously high reactive iron content and the rapid reoxidation of hydrogen sulfide in sediments. This will prevent the formation of pyrite and result in a ‘cryptic’ sulfur cycle. We studied the cycling of iron and sulfur in deep water (〉800 m water depth) sediments of the Red Sea and its northern extension, the Gulf of Aqaba. We found that the reactive iron content in the surface sediments of the Gulf of Aqaba and the Red Sea is high, whereas the amount of sulfur-bound iron is very low and decreases with the water depth. The presence of trace amounts of pyrite and zero-valent sulfur, as well as the isotopic compositions of sulfate and pyrite, which are consistent with sulfate reduction under substrate-limiting conditions, suggest that cryptic sulfur cycling is likely to be a result of the rapid reoxidation of hydrogen sulfide rather than the suppression of microbial sulfate reduction. The low amount of reactive iron and high organic carbon content in the sediments of the Shaban Deep, which are overlain by hypersaline hydrothermal brines, result in a non-cryptic sulfur cycle characterized by the preservation of pyrite in the sediments.Supplementary material: Data for sulfur speciation, iron speciation and sulfur isotope composition are available at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.5508155Thematic collection: This article is part of the Sulfur in the Earth system collection available at: https://www.lyellcollection.org/cc/sulfur-in-the-earth-system

Description: La Réunion Island includes two major volcanic systems. About 0·5 Myr ago, Piton des Neiges volcano declined, while Piton de la Fournaise volcano grew on its flank. Since then the Piton de la Fournaise shield volcano has produced homogeneous lavas with chemical compositions transitional between alkali and tholeiitic basalts. In April 2007, the volcano emitted a very small volume of trachytic pumice during its largest historical eruption. We conducted a comprehensive petrological and geochemical study of the pumice to understand the occurrence of such silicic melt in the feeding system of this highly active basaltic volcano. Isotopes of Sr, Nd, Pb and O, together with trace elements, indicate that the trachyte is genetically related to the La Réunion mantle plume and derives from crystallization of a typical basalt. The trachyte chemistry records a long and complex history of differentiation and outgassing. The extensive depletion of moderately volatile elements (F, Cl, B, Cs, Cu, Li) and less volatile uranium is consistent with exsolution of dense fluids at depths of several kilometres. Lithium isotopes point to closed-system degassing during the very late stages of crystallization. U-series isotopes and radiogenic 208Pb*/206Pb* constrain the age of U loss to between 0·4 and 2·1 Ma. This age is as old as or older than the Piton de la Fournaise shield edifice. The 2007 trachyte could thus be a liquid remnant of an extinct volcano, such as Piton des Neiges or Les Alizés (Piton de la Fournaise proto-volcano). It could also result from partial melting of an old syenite intrusion or remobilization of interstitial melts not fully solidified. Thermal modelling indicates that the sustained heat flux from hot basaltic magmas rising from the mantle can maintain temperatures above 800 °C in the central feeding system, and prevent total solidification of magmas trapped in this hot core.

Description: Fisheries management is usually supported by technical and financial measurements (i.e. logbooks and market data), which are helpful for ecological or economic assessments. Yet this information is not able to address social heterogeneity and fisher motivations, which are key to understanding fisher behaviour. This case study of the demersal segment in the Netherlands shows that combining quantitative analysis of logbooks with qualitative data collected by engaging with fishers can capture both fishing activity and its motivations, generating a more social understanding of fisher behaviour. A métier analysis of logbook data describes five dominant fishing practices among the selected segment. Twenty-five in-depth interviews with fishers along with focus groups including other experts identify three social factors that influence fisher behaviour in the Dutch demersal fleet: business structure, working rhythm, and polyvalence. The results show that motivations for fisher behaviour are more complex than complying with regulations or seeking profit: social factors also influence fishing activity. Furthermore, these social factors have real implications for the impacts of management measures on both the fishing communities and the environment, especially in times of change. These results are useful for management strategy development or evaluation because they are feasibly observable through existing data collection protocols.

Description: Harbour seals are surveyed aerially when they haul-out to moult in August. The proportion of the population hauled out throughout the year is related to temporal, environmental, and meteorological variables. Thus, monitoring is conducted under predefined ranges of conditions. Effects of variation within these ranges are rarely reviewed. We used linear models to assess effects of time, date and weather on the difference between counts predicted by a population growth model and observed counts, based on a 30-year time-series. Our top-ranked model explained 34.4% of the variance. Survey date and its interaction with survey year were the most important variables, with higher counts earlier in August, particularly early in the time series, where surveys may not have been timed optimally to capture the peak in the moult. Cloud cover, wind speed, temperature, and interactions between these were of lesser importance; there were fewer seals on land during cloudy, windy days and on clear, warm days. These effects of weather are likely related to temperature regulation. Power analyses suggested that correction for survey conditions would allow detection of a one percentage point annual change in population growth rate with 80% power 4 years sooner than without taking survey conditions into account.

Description: Sargassum forests play an important role in coastal waters as habitats for marine organisms, including commercial species. However, human activities have negatively affected their distribution causing a worldwide decline of Sargassum forests. Mapping and monitoring the distribution and biomass of these habitats using acoustic remote sensing techniques is key for their conservation. Nonetheless, most researches based on acoustic remote sensing methods focus on estimations of macrophyte area and its canopy height, and less researches reporting 3D visualization of these habitats. This study demonstrates the use of high-resolution multibeam echosounder (MBES) bathymetric data to visualize the 3D structure of Sargassum forests. Comparing acoustic data and underwater camera photos collected in field surveys, we identified Sargassum individuals as vertical clusters of contiguous sounding points with a base close to the sea bottom in the sounding data of the MBES. Using this criterion, we could distinguish Sargassum echoes, visualize the 3D structure of Sargassum forests and estimate the number of Sargassum individuals in the survey area. Using the relation between thallus length and dry weight of sampled Sargassum plants, standing stock and biomass could be estimated assuming the thallus length was the height of Sargassum plants identified with the MBES.

Description: This paper reviews application of the Daily Egg Production Method (DEPM) to sardine (Sardinops sagax) off southern Australia between 1995 and 2019. Coefficients of variation (CVs) of estimates of spawning biomass (SB) were reduced from 23–59% to 8–12% by: (i) estimating mean daily egg production (P0), spawning fraction (S), and sex ratio (R) from all historical data rather than annually; and (ii) combining batch fecundity (F) and female weight (W) into a single parameter, relative fecundity (F′ = F^/W). Total daily egg production was estimated most precisely from annual estimates of spawning area (A) and estimates of P0 obtained from historical data. Both S and R were estimated most precisely from historical data. Estimating W and F from historical data did not increase precision. F′ had lower CVs than both W and F, and was stable across years and a wide range of W. Findings demonstrate that A can be converted into a precise estimates of SB using estimates of P0, S, R, and F′ obtained from historical data. However, the possibility that DEPM parameters may change in the future cannot be discounted. Future monitoring should include annual estimation of P0 and periodic (e.g. 3–5 years) re-estimation of adult parameters.

Description: In his 1953 paper, Harald Sverdrup argued that the development of a spring bloom in the ocean depends on the juxtaposition of two depth horizons: the mixed-layer depth and the critical depth. Mixed-layer depth shallower than the critical depth favours phytoplankton growth in the layer and vice versa. However, mathematically, Sverdrup left the problem unsolved in the form of a transcendental equation. In spite of the high number of citations that this paper has garnered, the solution to this equation has not been found, until now. In this work, we present an analytical solution for the critical depth, as originally defined by Sverdrup. The paper opens with the definition of the critical depth and the description of the Lambert W function. The analytical solution for critical depth follows. Sverdrup’s original model is extended to include the effect of light attenuation by phytoplankton and the analytical solution for steady-state biomass in the mixed layer is derived. The expression for mixed-layer production at steady state is also presented. Two novel variants of the critical depth are defined: the optically uncoupled critical depth and the optically coupled critical depth. It is demonstrated that at steady state the optically coupled critical depth equals the mixed-layer depth and that the irradiance at the base of the mixed layer equals the irradiance at the optically uncoupled critical depth. Competitive exclusion is demonstrated to hold and the optically uncoupled critical depth is linked to the critical light intensity in multi-species competition. Finally, a conservation principle for the critical depth is found.

Description: Fishery bycatch poses a serious threat to seabird populations globally. Traditional haul-only post-capture observations are inadequate and inefficient to document seabird bycatch due to the substantial bycatch loss known to occur. Pre-capture observations offer an alternative by documenting seabird interactions leading up to captures. Based on the long-term large-scale dedicated field observations, this study revealed significant risk factors for the pre-capture stages of the seabird bycatch process in pelagic longline fisheries using Bayesian methods. Rough sea conditions were found to correlate with more seabirds following fishing vessels. Species identity, density effect, inter-species effect, and sea condition were found to significantly affect how frequently seabirds aggregated around a fishing vessel engage in bait-taking interactions. Intra-species competition was found to be the dominant type of density effect. Moreover, a web of inter-species interactions was identified to facilitate the bait-taking of superior competitors at the expense of inferior ones. The findings of this study are relevant to fishery managers in updating current data collection protocols to alleviate data issues caused by bycatch loss, to conservation biologists in quantifying bycatch risks for susceptible seabird populations, and in aiding the design and evaluation of bycatch mitigation measures.

Description: Fishing and translocation of marine species for use in aquaculture is widespread. Corkwing, goldsinny, and ballan wrasse (Symphodus melops, Ctenolabrus rupestris, and Labrus bergylta) are fished on the Swedish west coast for use as cleaner-fish in Norwegian salmon farms. Here, we aim to provide knowledge and recommendations to support ecosystem-based management for wrasse fisheries in Sweden. We compared fished and non-fished areas to test if current fishery levels have led to stock depletion. To gain insight on the role of wrasse in the algal belt trophic chain, we analysed the gut contents of goldsinny and corkwing using metabarcoding. Finally, we analysed the trophic interactions of wrasse and potential prey in a mesocosm study. We could not detect any signs of stock depletion or altered size structure in fished areas compared to the protected control area. Gut analyses confirmed both goldsinny and corkwing as non-specialized, omnivorous opportunists and revealed, with 189 prey taxa detected, a broader spectrum of prey than previously known. Common prey items included mesoherbivores such as small gastropods and crustaceans, but also insects and algae. We conclude that there are no visible signs of stock depletion at the current removal level of wrasses by the fishery. However, this emerging fishery should be closely monitored for potential cascading effects on the algal belt ecosystem, and our study could provide a baseline for future monitoring.

Description: Target strength model inputs including morphometry, material properties, lipid composition, and in situ orientations were measured for sub-Arctic krill (Euphausia pacifica, Thysanoessa spinifera, T. inermis, and T. raschii) in the eastern Bering Sea (EBS, 2016) and Gulf of Alaska (GOA, 2017). Inter-species and -regional animal lengths were significantly different (F1,680 = 114.10, p 

Description: Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) is one of the most commercially important fish species in the North Atlantic. Environmental factors, such as water temperatures, influence growth of individuals over time, thus forming population-specific growth patterns across climatic regions. Here we develop an integrative approach to investigate the role of temperature in shaping geographic differences of cod growth in the Celtic Sea, North Sea, Iceland, and Barents Sea. We combine a physiology-based growth model and 50-years observational temperature data of 0.5 × 0.5° spatial resolution to simulate continuous growth of cod. The model generated weight-at-age data for the period 1959–2007 which we compared to observational data from fishery-independent scientific surveys. In the Celtic and the northern North Sea, simulated growth matches well observational data. We also show that relatively warm temperatures in the Celtic Sea facilitate maximum growth rates; future warming is likely to have a negative impact on growth of these cod stocks. Growth simulations in Icelandic waters and the Barents Sea are less consistent with local observational data. More complex growth patterns in these regions are probably shaped by ontogenetic shifts in temperature regimes, feeding conditions and physiological adaptations. These findings should stimulate further research on critical processes to be considered in population-specific projections of growth of cod and productivity.

Description: In designing and performing surveys of animal abundance, monitoring programs often struggle to determine the sampling intensity and design required to achieve their objectives, and this problem greatly increases in complexity for multispecies surveys with inherent trade-offs among species. To address these issues, we conducted a multispecies stratified random survey design optimization using a spatiotemporal operating model and a genetic algorithm that optimizes both the stratification (defined by depth and longitude) and the minimum optimal allocation of samples across strata subject to prespecified precision limits. Surveys were then simulated under those optimized designs and performance was evaluated by calculating the precision and accuracy of a resulting design-based abundance index. We applied this framework to a multispecies fishery-independent bottom trawl survey in the Gulf of Alaska, USA. Incorporating only spatial variation in the optimization failed to produce population estimates within the prespecified precision constraints, whereas including additional spatiotemporal variation ensured that estimates were both unbiased and within prespecified precision constraints. In general, results were not sensitive to the number of strata in the optimized solutions. This optimization approach provides an objective quantitative framework for designing new, or improving existing, survey designs for many different ecosystems.

Description: Changes in animal movement and behaviour at fine scales (tens of metres) in immediate proximity to tidal stream turbine structures are largely unknown and have implications for risks of animal collision with turbine blades. This study used upward-facing multibeam echosounder data to detect and track animal movement comprising fish, diving seabirds, and marine mammals. Measurements over spring-neap tidal cycles at a turbine structure (no blades present) are compared to a neighbouring reference area with no structure and comparable conditions, with measurements consecutive in time to maximize comparability. The majority of tracked animals (93.4% around turbine structure and 99.1% without turbine structure) were observed swimming against the flow, with 87.5% and 97.8%, respectively, making ground and showing capability of manoeuvring in tidal stream flow speeds. Track tortuosity increased around the turbine structure compared to the reference site, particularly in the wake and at low flow speeds, indicating animal station-holding or milling behaviour. These data also evidence the benefits of multibeam echosounders to measure animal movement through larger measurement volumes rather than relying on single-beam echosounders to measure animal presence alone, including to avoid large biases overestimating the size of schools swimming against the flow measured by time-in-beam.

Description: The Antarctic Peninsula is one of the most rapidly warming regions on earth, and it is likely that the abundance and distribution of marine predators will change as a result.Procellariiform seabirds are highly mobile predators, which target specific habitat characteristics associated with underlying distributions of prey and areas of increased prey availability. We use ship surveys and hurdle models, to estimate the summer distribution and relative density of 11 seabird species within the northern Antarctic Peninsula marine ecosystem. Models differed among species; however, sea surface temperature and depth were frequently associated with seabird occurrence and had the greatest explanatory power across many species. Null models based on observation data were better at predicting seabird density than models that included environmental covariates. This suggests that the main driver of distribution patterns is the broad-scale habitat features, and fine-scale aggregations within these ranges are harder to predict. Our seabird distribution models reflect known habitat associations, species hotspots, and community organization relative to oceanic and coastal marine processes. Application of species distribution models will benefit the assessments of critical habitat and potential responses to climate change and anthropogenic disturbance, which will provide insight into how species may change in polar ecosystems.

Description: Many data-limited fish stocks worldwide require management advice. Simple empirical management procedures have been used to manage data-limited fisheries but do not necessarily ensure compliance with maximum sustainable yield objectives and precautionary principles. Genetic algorithms are efficient optimization procedures for which the objectives are formalized as a fitness function. This optimization can be included when testing management procedures in a management strategy evaluation. This study explored the application of a genetic algorithm to an empirical catch rule and found that this approach could substantially improve the performance of the catch rule. The optimized parameterization and the magnitude of the improvement were dependent on the specific stock, stock status, and definition of the fitness function. The genetic algorithm proved to be an efficient and automated method for tuning the catch rule and removed the need for manual intervention during the optimization process. Therefore, we conclude that the approach could also be applied to other management procedures, case-specific tuning, and even data-rich stocks. Finally, we recommend the phasing out of the current generic ICES “2 over 3” advice rule in favour of case-specific catch rules of the form tested here, although we caution that neither works well for fast-growing stocks.

Description: Ocean grabbing occurs when traditional users, such as small-scale fishers, are pushed aside by new development activities. This grabbing must be prevented to avoid sea uses that maintain or increase social inequity. In this paper, we show that in tropical Atlantic countries, such as Brazil and Senegal, examples of ocean grabbing already occur. In this context, we analyse if Maritime Spatial Planning (MSP) may be an opportunity to limit ocean grabbing or, to the contrary, poses a risk to increase it. MSP calls for an ecosystem approach that requires integrated coastal and marine management and involves stakeholders in developing a shared vision of the future, where society and environment are preserved. However, recent studies have shown that MSP is a process to be used cautiously to ensure equitable decisions. Meanwhile, the concept is spreading worldwide including in tropical Atlantic countries. We highlight that context matters and the specificities of the tropical Atlantic must be taken into account when deploying MSP processes. In the tropical Atlantic context, there is increased imbalances of stakeholder power, traps from decision support tools, and a need for adaptive management. These specific features must be addressed when deploying MSP in a way to avoid ocean grabbing.

Description: The influence of oceanographic variables on assemblages of meso- and bathypelagic fish was investigated along a Northeastern Atlantic Ocean transect (Cape Verde to the Bay of Biscay) during May 2019. Fish were collected using a mrozooplankton trawl during daylight hours at ten stations. Along the transect, 17 hydrographic stations were also performed with a CTD (Conductivity, Temperature, and Depth). A total of 130 fish taxa were identified. The dominant family was Gonostomatidae, with four species (Cyclothone braueri, Cyclothone microdon, Cyclothone pseudopallida, and Cyclothone pallida) being responsible of more than 78% of the total density. The most frequent species that appeared to be ubiquitous were C. braueri and C. pseudopallida, while Myctophidae was the most diverse family. Multivariate analyses revealed two clusters related with the latitudinal gradient. The fish community in the southern stations (25–37°N) was more diverse than in the northern stations (42–48°N). Temperature from 300 to 700 m depth explained 65% of variation in terms of density and 58% in terms of biomass, both statistically significant. The investigated variation in the deep-pelagic ecosystems on a large spatial scale gives essential information to ecosystem management approhes and marine spatial planning.

Description: In the European Union (EU), the ecosystem approach to fisheries is implemented through several directives and polices, which are overarched by the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD). The MSFD requires the assessment of the environmental status of exploited fish and shellfish stocks, among others, to advise the EU Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) on sustainable catch options. The stock assessments for the CFP and the MSFD are supposed to be congruent, yet they differ in several substantial subjects. While the annual CFP assessment is based on two indicators, fishing mortality (F) and spawning stock biomass (SSB), in its Descriptor 3 (D3) the MSFD requires the assessment of three criteria (F, SSB, and age or size structure) within a six year period. Assessing exploited fish and shellfish stocks under the MSFD by using existing CFP assessments has therefore been a half-completed task, which had to be fulfilled by the member states of the EU. This paper suggests six easy steps, referred to as “quick wins” (QW), which are based on existing information from CFP stock assessments. The implementation of these six QW would allow for assessments of exploited fish and shellfish stocks that are compliant to D3. These QW are to (i) assess length/age structure within a stock, (ii) analyse and assess selectivity by fisheries, (iii) use all available information to assess a stock, (iv) use response indicators to assess environmental targets, (v) provide integrated stock-specific advice, and (vi) provide assessments with a mid-term perspective over a-period of six years. International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) combines the infrastructure and expertise to produce stock-specific assessment products tailored to the requirements of MSFD D3. Thereby, ICES could provide a valuable service to EU member states in the north-east Atlantic region by providing scientifically validated, quality-assured, and MSFD-compliant single-stock assessment products. This would be a big advancement towards implementing the ecosystem approach to fisheries management within Europe.

Description: Managers, stakeholders, and scientists recognize the need for collaborative, transparent, integrated approaches to complex resource management issues, and frameworks to address these complex issues are developing. Through the course of 2019, the Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council developed a conceptual model of ecosystem linkages and risks for summer flounder, a species of recreational and commercial fisheries importance. The proximal aim of the model was to develop a list of integrated management questions that could be refined and addressed through a future quantitative management strategy evaluation. As such, this conceptual model served as a scoping tool. However, the true value of the conceptual model lays elsewhere: familiarizing resource managers historically focused on single-species management with the potential utility of an ecosystem approach to management. This paper details the goals and development of the conceptual model and situates this process in the broader context of best practices for collaborative open science and scientific reproducibility. Further, it highlights a successful path by which the shift towards ecosystem-based management can be actuated.

Description: Understanding the competitive interactions of ecological similar species is essential to determine their role and niche in the ecosystem. Using both conventional dietary methods and stable isotope analysis, we examined the feeding ecology, trophic position and possible niche partitioning of Northeast Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus), Icelandic summer spawning (ISS) herring (Clupea harengus), and Norwegian spring spawning (NSS) herring from Icelandic waters during the spring and summer 2012 and 2014. The stomach analysis showed differences in prey preferences among the species during summer, where mackerel diets were almost exclusively calanoid copepods, while herring ate larger zooplankton, i.e. euphausiids and amphipods. Analysis of isotopic diet contribution of mackerel and herring using Bayesian mixing models, representing mainly the spring consumption, revealed that euphausiids were the main dietary contributor of both mackerel and herring. Fish prey were also an important dietary source for ISS herring, and amphipods were important to the diet of NSS herring. In addition, mackerel encompassed a broad isotopic niche, whereas the two herring stocks had narrower and separated niches from each other. The results from this analysis reveal new and holistic information into the diet of these species, which have various ecological implications.

Description: Theoretical size at the onset of maturity (TSOM) for female Norway lobster was estimated by a new methodology based on the probability distributions of mature individuals built on physiological maturity measures. Onset of maturity using TSOM varied from 18.4- to 33.7-mm carapace length for the Irish functional management units (FUs). These estimates showed a significant negative linear relationship (R2 = 0.60) with population density and a significant positive linear relationship with average size in females (R2 = 0.84). The size class at which 50% of the females are sexually mature (L50) was linked to the new TSOM metric by a significant positive linear relationship (R2 = 0.40). This set of linear relationships ultimately allowed TSOM and L50 to be estimated without a requirement for maturity stages to be distinguished. As well as contributing to the stock assessment and management of Nephrops (e.g. in data-limited FUs) and its potential for the calibration of more routinely used estimates, TSOM might be applied in new species and meta-analyses where size of maturity data are scarce. This new metric also better-defines the maturity process since, taken together, TSOM, L50, and smallest berried female represent sequential maturity events: (i) onset of maturity, (ii) 50% mature (from gonad staging), and (iii) berried females.

Description: Although gelatinous zooplankton are an important component of marine ecosystems, gelatinous mesozooplankton that are

Description: The carapace length (CL) at which American lobster (Homarus americanus) females reach maturity can be used to evaluate egg production, growth patterns, and the overall health of lobster stocks. The female maturity datasets used to represent Gulf of Maine (GOM) lobsters in the 2015 Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission American Lobster Stock Assessment were collected in the 1990s by the Maine Department of Marine Resources at two coastal sites. Many studies have demonstrated an inverse relationship between temperature and the size at maturity in female lobsters, and GOM waters have warmed significantly over this period. To update these GOM maturity datasets, we used ovarian staging to determine the maturity status of over 1200 females from fives sites over 3 years. Broad application of this methodology in tandem with key growth measurements on females 50–120 mm CL allowed us to characterize reproductive development and generate maturity ogives (proportion mature at a given CL). We observed a latitudinal gradient in the size at maturity across this coastal region of the GOM and quantified a decrease in this size over 25 years. These findings have implications for future stock assessment approaches and management measures implemented to sustain this valuable fishery.

Description: The carbonate chemistry in coastal waters is more variable compared with that of open oceans, both in magnitude and time scale of its fluctuations. However, knowledge of the responses of coastal phytoplankton to dynamic changes in pH/pCO2 has been scarcely documented. Hence, we investigated the physiological performance of a coastal isolate of the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi (PML B92/11) under fluctuating and stable pCO2 regimes (steady ambient pCO2, 400 μatm; steady elevated pCO2, 1200 μatm; diurnally fluctuating elevated pCO2, 600–1800 μatm). Elevated pCO2 inhibited the calcification rate in both the steady and fluctuating regimes. However, higher specific growth rates and lower ratios of calcification to photosynthesis were detected in the cells grown under diurnally fluctuating elevated pCO2 conditions. The fluctuating pCO2 regime alleviated the negative effects of elevated pCO2 on effective photochemical quantum yield and relative photosynthetic electron transport rate compared with the steady elevated pCO2 treatment. Our results suggest that growth of E. huxleyi could benefit from diel fluctuations of pH/pCO2 under future-projected ocean acidification, but its calcification was reduced by the fluctuation and the increased concentration of CO2, reflecting a necessity to consider the influences of dynamic pH fluctuations on coastal carbon cycles associated with ocean global changes.

Description: Millions of people’s livelihoods rely on artisanal fisheries. However, in many regions fishers are increasingly facing ciguatera poisoning, a seafood-borne illness. The toxin, produced by benthic dinoflagellates, can spread through marine food webs and to humans by direct consumption. Ciguatera risk can play a major role in fisher’s activities but has never been considered in any marine spatial plans thus far. To fill this gap, we examined if integrating ciguatera in systematic conservation plans could affect these decisions. We developed through map-based interviews, a novel seven-step framework to collect and map local knowledge on ciguatera risk and fisheries activities with two innovations: (i) better mapping of fishing grounds by combining geomorphological habitat and fishing gear information, and (ii) integrating ciguatera risk directly into systematic spatial planning designs and scenarios conceived to maximize benthic habitat conservation while minimizing impacts to fishers. The approach is illustrated for Raivavae Island, in French Polynesia, Pacific Ocean. We found that integrating ciguatera significantly improved prioritization solutions with a 24–38% decrease of costs to fishers compared with scenarios based solely on fishery data. This framework was designed for scientists and managers to optimize the implementation of conservation plans and could be generalized to ciguatera-prone areas.

Description: Deep-sea marine fishes support important fisheries but estimates of their distributions are often incomplete as the data behind them may reflect fishing practices, access rights, or political boundaries, rather than actual geographic distributions. We use a simple suitable habitat model based on bottom depth, temperature, and salinity to estimate the potential distribution of Greenland halibut (Reinhardtius hippoglossoides). A large presence-only dataset is examined using multivariate kernel densities to define environmental envelopes, which we link to spatial distribution using a pan-Arctic oceanographic model. Occurrences generally fit the model well, although there were gaps in the predicted circum-Arctic distribution likely due to limited survey activity in many of the ice-covered seas around the Arctic Ocean. Bottom temperature and depth were major factors defining model fit to observations, but other factors, such as ecosystem interactions and larval drift could also influence distribution. Model predictions can be tested by increasing sampling effort in poorly explored regions and by studying the connectivity of putative populations. While abundances of Greenland halibut in the High Arctic are currently low, some areas are predicted to be suitable habitat for this species, suggesting that on-going sea-ice melt may lead to fisheries expansion into new areas.

Description: On the continental shelf, New Zealand bryozoans dominate ecologically-important three-dimensional benthic habitat providing structural complexity which hosts a wide variety of fauna, including economically valuable species (e.g. oysters and blue cod). The association between these species and bryozoan-dominated biogenic habitat commonly results in trawling damage to the benthos; eliminating pressure from destructive fishing practices could support bryozoan regrowth. In 2002, a voluntary fishing restriction was designated over part of one such bryozoan-dominated biogenic habitat, but the efficacy of this ban has not been assessed. Statutory marine protected areas have been proposed in the same area; they aim to achieve bryozoan protection and recovery. A comparison of the bryozoan fauna using benthic images from 2003 and 2019 from the Otago shelf, South Island, New Zealand/Te Waipounamu, Aotearoa shows that a 17-year voluntary fishing ban has been ineffective at increasing the cover and richness of bryozoan-dominated biogenic habitat on the Otago shelf. This study provides a baseline for future monitoring and develops useful metrics for recovery, while calling for further research on the biology and ecology of habitat-forming bryozoans.

Description: Ecosystem-based management is generally viewed as one of the most promising avenues for addressing the various anthropogenic pressures facing the world’s marine ecosystems. These approaches have been developed to varying degrees by individual countries or international organisations, but there remain a large proportion of marine ecosystems, particularly in developing regions, that have not yet been the subject of such research. In these areas, lack of effective regulation and the often high importance of the marine environment in providing food and economic opportunities, together create conditions where marine resources and habitats come under unsustainable levels of pressure. Here, we present a data-limited assessment approach to discern marine ecological patterns, in this case for the exclusive economic zone of Vietnam. By combining data from environmental and biological surveys from the Vietnamese national survey dataset and local oceanographic models, we have identified a series of 12 candidate ecological production units, delineated by their environmental characteristics, and the key commercial species that exist within them. These units are suggested as a possible foundation for a spatial management structure in the Vietnamese exclusive economic zone including considerations such as placement of marine protected areas, or ecological boundaries of key areas of socio-economic importance.

Description: This paper explores the possibility of using the ensemble modelling paradigm to fully capture assessment uncertainty and improve the robustness of advice provision. We identify and discuss advantages and challenges of ensemble modelling approaches in the context of scientific advice. There are uncertainties associated with every phase in the stock assessment process: data collection, assessment model choice, model assumptions, interpretation of risk, up to the implementation of management advice. Additionally, the dynamics of fish populations are complex, and our incomplete understanding of those dynamics and limited observations of important mechanisms, necessitate that models are simpler than nature. The aim is for the model to capture enough of the dynamics to accurately estimate trends and abundance, and provide the basis for robust advice about sustainable harvests. The status quo approach to assessment modelling has been to identify the “best” model and generate advice from that model, mostly ignoring advice from other model configurations regardless of how closely they performed relative to the chosen model. We discuss and make suggestions about the utility of ensemble models, including revisions to the formal process of providing advice to management bodies, and recommend further research to evaluate potential gains in modelling and advice performance.

Description: Climate effects on marine fish depend on life stage, particularly when life stages differ in habitat utilization. In the present study, we investigated life stage-dependent responses of lesser sandeel (Ammodytes marinus) to temperature at contrasting geographical scales. We related population density and individual growth to temperature and found different temperature responses between the first and the second years of life. During the first year of life, fish size was the single most important factor influencing sandeel abundances, indicating a positive relationship between growth and survival. In contrast, during the second year of life, autumn bottom temperature was negatively correlated with sandeel abundance, suggesting elevated mortality in warm years. Southerly areas, experiencing higher temperatures in general, were also the areas showing the strongest response to temperature. This study sheds light on how warming impacts population dynamics of one of the most important forage fishes in the North Sea and supports the discussion of underlying mechanisms.

Description: Recent ichnological analysis conducted in two sections (Rodiles and Lastres) of the Asturian Basin revealed the presence of Halimedides Lorenz von Liburnau 1902, which occurs just above the black shales related to the end of the T-OAE. Halimedides is associated with the recovery of the tracemaker community after the reestablishment of favourable, oxic, conditions. The appearance of Halimedides after the T-OAE event, previously not registered, supports the close relationship of the tracemaker with oxygen conditions, as occurs in other anoxic events including the Cretaceous OAE-1a and OAE-2. Also a relation between morphometric and paleoenvironmental parameters is observed, occurring larger and densely chambered specimens in darker, weakly oxygenated facies, while smaller and sparsely chambered forms are registered in lighter, better oxygenated sediments.

Description: Previous studies have concluded that the wind-input vorticity in ocean gyres is balanced by bottom pressure torques (BPT), when integrated over latitude bands. However, the BPT must vanish when integrated over any area enclosed by an isobath. This constraint raises ambiguities regarding the regions over which BPT should close the vorticity budget, and implies that BPT generated to balance a local wind stress curl necessitates the generation of a compensating, non-local BPT and thus non-local circulation. This study aims to clarify the role of BPT in wind-driven gyres using an idealized isopycnal model. Experiments performed with a single-signed wind stress curl in an enclosed, sloped basin reveal that BPT balances the winds only when integrated over latitude bands. Integrating over other, dynamically-motivated definitions of the gyre, such as barotropic streamlines, yields a balance between wind stress curl and bottom frictional torques. This implies that bottom friction plays a non-negligible role in structuring the gyre circulation. Non-local bottom pressure torques manifest in the form of along-slope pressure gradients associated with a weak basin-scale circulation, and are associated with a transition to a balance between wind stress and bottom friction around the coasts. Finally, a suite of perturbation experiments is used to investigate the dynamics of BPT. To predict the BPT, the authors extend previous theory that describes propagation of surface pressure signals from the gyre interior toward the coast along planetary potential vorticity contours. This theory is shown to agree closely with the diagnosed contributions to the vorticity budget across the suite of model experiments.

Description: Sufficient and accurate tide data are essential for analyzing physical processes in the ocean. A method is developed to spatially fit the tidal amplitude and phase lag data along satellite altimeter tracks near Hawaii and construct reliable cotidal charts by using the Chebyshev polynomials. The method is completely dependent on satellite altimeter data. By using the cross-validation method, the optimal orders of Chebyshev polynomials are determined and the polynomial coefficients are calculated by the least squares method. The tidal amplitudes and phase lags obtained by the method are compared with those from the Finite Element Solutions 2014 (FES2014), National Astronomical Observatory 99b (NAO.99b) and TPXO9 models. Results indicate that the method yields accurate results as its fitting results are consistent with the harmonic constants of the three models. The feasibility of this method is also validated by the harmonic constants from tidal gauges near Hawaii.

Description: The geometry, distribution, and rock properties (i.e. porosity and permeability) of turbidite reservoirs, and the processes associated with turbidity current deposition, are relatively well known. However, less attention has been given to the equivalent properties resulting from laminar sediment gravity-flow deposition, with most research limited to cogenetic turbidite-debrites (i.e. transitional flow deposits) or subsurface studies that focus predominantly on seismic-scale mass-transport deposits (MTDs). Thus, we have a limited understanding of the ability of sub-seismic MTDs to act as hydraulic seals and their effect on hydrocarbon production, and/or carbon storage. We investigate the gap between seismically resolvable and sub-seismic MTDs, and transitional flow deposits on long-term reservoir performance in this analysis of a small (

Description: Micritic sediments containing dark, discrete, organic-rich burrows, situated in a light grey background carbonate mud, were deposited over a broad geographic area in deep-shelf, bathyal, and basinal environments in the western margin of the Tethys Ocean during the Early and Middle Jurassic. These hemipelagic deposits represent a distinct depositional regime marked by low-energy, soft-bottom and only locally dysoxic environments. Still, it is unclear whether the trace fossil assemblages occurring in these deposits pertain to a network of several community types -the ichnotaxa differing from basin to basin- or else a single community of environmentally broad-ranging, burrow-producing species. Lower Jurassic trace-fossil assemblages are found in the Western Carpathians and in the Subbetic, Betic Cordillera, i.e. in basins separated by more than 2,000 km in their original palaeogeographic areas. The stereotypical Chondrites and Zoophycos trace-fossil assemblages that occur in the analysed deposits share two ichnogenera of distinctive morphology (Lamellaeichnus, Teichichnus). Agglutinated foraminifera Bathysiphon occurs together with the described trace fossil assemblage and determines epibenthic palaeoenvironmental conditions. In the Western Carpathians, a Lamellaeichnus-dominated assemblage alternates with a Zoophycos-dominated assemblage in small, metre-scale cycles in the upper Pliensbachian, and the proportion of the Zoophycos assemblage increases stratigraphically upwards, probably owing to reduced basin ventilation during the early Toarcian. Within the southern Iberian Palaeomargin, represented by the Betic Cordillera, Zoophycos is scarce in the facies.

Description: The temporal-spatial variations of the static stability of dry air and the relative importance of their influencing quantities are explored. Derivation shows that while it links to the vertical difference of temperature, static stability also relates to the temperature itself. The static stability is expressed as a nonlinear function of temperature and the vertical difference of temperature. The relative importance of the two influencing quantities is assessed with the linear regression. Tests show that the linear fitting method is robust. The results of the dominance rely on the data examined, which include an interannual variation, a seasonal variation, and a spatial variation that consists of the grid points over the globe. It is revealed that in lower troposphere, while the temporal variations of static stability are dominated by the vertical difference of temperature, the temperature itself may also have considerable influence, especially over the high latitudes of the two hemispheres. In stratosphere, temperature tends to have more contributions. Over Antarctic, temperature dominates the seasonal and interannual variations of the static stability. The spatial variation of the static stability of July is influenced by both temperature and its vertical difference before 1980, but after that it is dominated by temperature.

Description: In recent winters, there have been repeated observations of extreme warm and cold spells in the mid-latitude countries. This has evoked questions regarding how winter temperature extremes are induced. In this study, we demonstrate that abnormally warm winter weather in East Asia can drive the onset of extremely cold weather in North America approximately one week forward. These seesawing extremes across the basin are mediated by the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), one of the recurrent atmospheric patterns over the North Pacific. Budget analysis of the quasi-geostrophic geopotential tendency equation shows that intense thermal advection over East Asia is able to trigger the growth of the NPO. Vorticity fluxes associated with the upper-level stationary trough then strengthen and maintain the NPO against thermal damping following the onset of the NPO. Differential diabatic heating accompanied by changes in circulation also positively contribute to the growth and maintenance of the NPO. These results imply that recurrent cold extremes, seemingly contrary to global warming, may be an inherent feature resulting from strengthening warm extremes.

Description: This study revisits the long-term variabilities of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) in 1958-2017 through examining diurnal cycles. We group monsoon days into four dynamic quadrants, with emphasis on the strong daily southerlies coupled with a large (Q1) or small (Q4) diurnal amplitude over Southeast China. The occurrence day of Q1 increases in June-July with the seasonal progress of EASM. It is most pronounced in 1960s-1970s and declines to the lowest in 1980s-1990s, while the Q4 occurrence increases notably from 1970s to 1990s; both groups return to normal in recent years. The interdecadal decrease (increase) of Q1 (Q4) occurrence corresponds well to the known weakening of EASM in the 20th century, and it also coincides with the rainfall anomalies over China shifting from “North flooding and South drought” to “North drought and South flooding” modes. The rainfall under Q1 (Q4) can account for ∼60% of the interannual variance of summer rainfall in northern (southern) China. The contrasting effects of Q1 and Q4 on rainfall are due to their remarkably different regulation on water vapor transports and convergence. The interannual/interdecadal variations of Q1 (Q4) occurrence determine the anomalous water vapor transports to northern (southern) China, in association with the various expansion of the western Pacific subtropical high. In particular, Q1 condition can greatly intensify nighttime moisture convergence, which is responsible for the long-term variations of rainfall in northern China. The results highlight that the diurnal cycles in monsoon flow act as a key regional process working with large-scale circulations to regulate the spatial distributions and long-term variabilities of EASM rainfall.

Description: A lightning risk assessment for application to human safety was created and applied in 10 West Texas locations from 2 May 2016 to 30 September 2016. The method combined spatial lightning mapping data, probabilistic risk calculation adapted from the International Electrotechnical Commission Standard 62305-2, and weighted average interpolation to produce risk magnitudes that were compared to tolerability thresholds to issue lightning warnings. These warnings were compared to warnings created for the same dataset using a more standard lightning safety approach based on National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) total lightning within 5 nautical miles of each location. Four variations of the calculation as well as different units of risk were tested to find the optimal configuration to calculate risk to an isolated human outdoors.The best performing risk configuration using risk 10min−1 or larger produced the most comparable results to the standard method, such as number of failures, average warning duration, and total time under warnings. This risk configuration produced fewer failures than the standard method, but longer total time under warnings and higher false alarm ratios. Median lead times associated with the risk configuration were longer than the standard method for all units considered, while median down times were shorter for risk 10min−1 and risk 15min−1. Overall, the risk method provides a baseline framework to quantify the changing lightning hazard on the storm-scale, and could be a useful tool to aid in lightning decision support scenarios.

Description: Recently, time-lapse seismic (4D seismic) has been steadily used to demonstrate the relation between field depletion and 4D seismic response, subsequently to have more efficient field management. A key component of the reservoir monitoring is the knowledge of fluid movement and pressure variations. This information is vital to assist infill drillings and a trustworthy source to update reservoir models, consequently improving model-based reservoir management and decision-making process. However, in practice the 4D seismic interpretation of reservoirs with multipart production regime possesses ambiguities through different levels of uncertainty. Complex nature of some 4D seismic signals emphasizes the roles of competing effects, geology, rock and fluid interactions. Hence, a reliable 4D interpretation requires an interdisciplinary approach entailing data analysis and insights from geophysics, engineering and geology. In this research, a step-wise workflow was introduced to reduce uncertainties in the 4D seismic interpretation and provide diagnoses to perform better reservoir surveillance. In parallel, the workflow expresses the use of engineering data analysis to conduct a consistent interpretation and encompasses the 3D and 4D seismic attributes with engineering data analysis. This study is implemented in a Brazilian heavy-oil offshore field where production started in 2013. The field experienced intense production activity up to 2016, making the deep-water field an ideal candidate to explore the challenges in interpreting complex 4D signals. Beyond these challenges, significant understanding of reservoir behavior is obtained and suggestions are made to improve the reservoir simulation model, which could support reservoir engineers with data assimilation applications.

Description: Baroclinic waves drive both regional variations in weather and large-scale variability in the extratropical general circulation. They generally do not exist in isolation, but rather often form into coherent wave packets that propagate to the east via a mechanism called downstream development. Downstream development has been widely documented and explored. Here we document a novel but also key aspect of baroclinic waves: the downstream suppression of baroclinic activity that occurs in the wake of eastward propagating disturbances. Downstream suppression is apparent not only in the Southern Hemisphere storm track as shown in previous work, but also in the North Pacific and North Atlantic storm tracks. It plays an essential role in driving subseasonal periodicity in extratropical eddy activity in both hemispheres, and gives rise to the observed quiescence of the North Atlantic storm track 1–2 weeks following pronounced eddy activity in the North Pacific sector. It is argued that downstream suppression results from the anomalously low baroclinicity that arises as eastward propagating wave packets convert potential to kinetic energy. In contrast to baroclinic wave packets, which propagate to the east at roughly the group velocity in the upper troposphere, the suppression of baroclinic activity propagates eastward at a slower rate that is comparable to that of the lower to midtropospheric flow. The results have implications for understanding subseasonal variability in the extratropical troposphere of both hemispheres.

Description: Persistent multiyear cold states of the tropical Pacific Ocean drive hydroclimate anomalies worldwide, including persistent droughts in the extratropical Americas. Here, the atmosphere and ocean dynamics and thermodynamics of multiyear cold states of the tropical Pacific Ocean are investigated using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalyses and simplified models of the ocean and atmosphere. The cold states are maintained by anomalous ocean heat flux divergence and damped by increased surface heat flux from the atmosphere to ocean. The anomalous ocean heat flux divergence is contributed to by both changes in the ocean circulation and thermal structure. The keys are an anomalously shallow thermocline that enhances cooling by upwelling and anomalous westward equatorial currents that enhance cold advection. The thermocline depth anomalies are shown to be a response to equatorial wind stress anomalies. The wind stress anomalies are shown to be a simple dynamical response to equatorial SST anomalies as mediated by precipitation anomalies. The cold states are fundamentally maintained by atmosphere-ocean coupling in the equatorial Pacific. The physical processes that maintain the cold states are well approximated by linear dynamics for ocean and atmosphere and simple thermodynamics.

Description: Summary Landslides can cause devastating damage. In particular, heavy rainfall-triggered landslides pose a chain of natural hazards. However, such events are often difficult to detect, leaving the physical processes poorly understood. Here we apply a novel surface-wave detector to detect and locate landslides during the transit of Typhoon Talas 2011. We identify multiple landslides triggered by Typhoon Talas, including a landslide in the Tenryu Ward, Shizuoka prefecture, Japan, ∼400 km east from the typhoon track. The Tenryu landslide displaced a total volume of 1.2 − −1.5 × 106 m. The landslide is much smaller than those detected by using globally recorded surface waves, yet the event generated coherent seismic signals propagating up to 3000 km away. Our observations show that attributes of small and large landslides may follow the same empirical scaling relationships, indicating possible invariant failure mechanisms. Our results also suggest an alerting technology to detect and locate landslides with a sparse seismic network.

Description: Summary We studied the broad-band spectra of the 8 largest earthquakes that have occurred in Chile in the last 25 years using strong-motion records and 1-Hz high-rate GNSS (cGNSS) data. To avoid the numerical instability problem with the double integration of the accelerograms, we computed velocity spectra integrating the acceleration time series in the spectral domain and compared them to time-differentiated the cGNSS displacement records. To compute the velocity spectrum, we used a multitaper algorithm so as to provide stability over the entire spectral band. We found that the velocity spectra of records obtained close to the main rupture of the earthquakes are different from classical Aki and Brune spectra. The velocity spectrum of large events in Chile presents a flat trend at low frequencies produced by the near-field waves. This trend converges at low frequencies to the static displacement as determined from GNSS data. For different magnitude earthquakes, we observe a transition in the ground-velocity spectrum from a decay of ${f^{ - 1}}$ at high frequencies and a flat trend at low frequencies to a more classical model with a peak at the corner frequency. The source-station distance influences the shape of the velocity spectrum at low frequencies, but there is no simple rule for the records available at present. At intermediate frequencies, the spectra are controlled by surface waves and S waves. We found a transition in the velocity spectrum for the 2014 Iquique earthquake, which indicates a change in the decay of the spectrum for stations at distances greater than ∼200 km. Finally, we show that the flat low-frequency trend of the velocity spectra determined from accelerograms, and the peak ground-displacement (PGD) determined from GNSS data scales with the moment to the power 2/3.

Description: Surface snowfall rate estimates from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission’s Core Observatory sensors and the CloudSat radar are compared to those from the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) radar composite product over the continental United States during the period from November 2014 to September 2020. The analysis includes: the Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) retrieval and its single frequency counterparts, the GPM Combined Radar Radiometer Algorithm (CORRA), the CloudSat Snow Profile product (2C-SNOW-PROFILE) and two passive microwave retrievals, i.e., the Goddard PROFiling algorithm (GPROF) and the Snow retrievaL ALgorithm fOr gMi (SLALOM). The 2C-SNOW retrieval has the highest Heidke Skill Score (HSS) for detecting snowfall among the products analysed. SLALOM ranks second; it outperforms GPROF and the other GPM algorithms, all detecting only 30% of the snow events. Since SLALOM is trained with 2C-SNOW, it suggests that the optimal use of the information content in the GMI observations critically depends on the precipitation training dataset. All the retrievals underestimate snowfall rates by a factor of two compared to MRMS. Large discrepancies (RMSE of 0.7 to 1.5 mm h-1) between space-borne and ground-based snowfall rate estimates are attributed to the complexity of the ice scattering properties and to the limitations of the remote sensing systems: the DPR instrument has low sensitivity, while the radiometric measurements are affected by the confounding effects of the background surface emissivity and of the emission of supercooled liquid droplet layers.

Description: Quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) at high spatiotemporal resolution are essential for flash flood forecasting, especially in urban environments and headwater areas. An accurate quantification of precipitation is directly related to the temporal and spatial sampling of the precipitation system. The advent of phased array radar (PAR) technology, a potential next-generation weather radar, can provide updates that are at least 4-5 times faster than the conventional WSR-88D scanning rate. In this study, data collected by the KOUN WSR-88D radar with ~1 minute temporal resolution is used as an approximation of data that a future PAR system could provide to force the Ensemble Framework for Flash Flood Forecasting (EF5) hydrologic model. To assess the effect of errors resulting from temporal and spatial sampling of precipitation on flash flood warnings, KOUN precipitation data (1-km/1-min) is used to generate precipitation products at other spatial/temporal resolutions commonly used in hydrologic models, such as those provided by conventional WSR-88D radar (1-km/5-min), spaced-based observations (10-km/30-min), and hourly rainfall products (1-km/60-min). The effect of precipitation sampling errors on flash flood warnings are then examined and quantified by using discharge simulated from KOUN (1-km/1-min) as truth to assess simulations conducted using other generated coarser spatial/temporal resolutions of other precipitation products. Our results show that: 1) observations with coarse spatial and temporal sampling can cause large errors in quantification of the amount, intensity, and distribution of precipitation, 2) time series of precipitation products show that QPE peak values decrease as the temporal resolution gets coarser, and 3) the effect of precipitation sampling error on flash flood forecasting is large in headwater areas and decrease quickly as drainage area increases.

Description: Measuring rainfall is complex, due to the high temporal and spatial variability of precipitation, especially in a changing climate, but it is of great importance for all the scientific and operational disciplines dealing with rainfall effects on the environment, human activities, and economy.Microwave (MW) telecommunication links carry information on rainfall rates along their path, through signal attenuation caused by raindrops, and can become measurements of opportunity, offering inexpensive chances to augment information without deploying additional infrastructures, at the cost of some smart processing. Processing satellite telecom signals bring some specific complexities related to the effects of rainfall boundaries, melting layer, and non-weather attenuations, but with the potential to provide worldwide precipitation data with high temporal and spatial samplings. These measurements have to be processed according to the probabilistic nature of the information they carry. An EnKF-based (Ensemble Kalman Filter) method has been developed to dynamically retrieve rainfall fields in gridded domains, which manages such probabilistic information and exploits the high sampling rate of measurements. The paper presents the EnKF method with some representative tests from synthetic 3D experiments. Ancillary data are assumed as from worldwide-available operational meteorological satellites and models, for advection, initial and boundary conditions, rain height. The method reproduces rainfall structures and quantities in a correct way, and also manages possible link outages. It results computationally viable also for operational implementation and applicable to different link observation geometries and characteristics.

Description: Early Paleozoic trondhjemites, gneissic granites and alkali granites in southern Yunnan preserve important records of the tectonic evolution of the Prototethyan Ocean and regional correlations. Zircon ages suggest that these granitoids were emplaced from 476 to 436 Ma. The trondhjemites are characterized by high Na2O and low K2O contents, with εNd(t) values of −1.9 to −3.5 and εHf(t) values of −2.8 to +3.9. The trondhjemites were derived from an amphibolite source with a juvenile mafic component. The gneissic granites belong to the metaluminous low-K calc-alkaline series with an εNd(t) value of −6.2 and εHf(t) values of −5.0 to −0.4. The alkali granites belong to the high-K calc-alkaline series and yield εNd(t) values of −10.1 to −10.7 and εHf(t) values of −7.9 to −2.3. The gneissic granites were derived from an ‘ancient' lower mafic crust, whereas the alkali granites were derived from a meta-sedimentary source. These granitoids were formed during the subduction of the Prototethyan Ocean beneath the Simao Block and can be compared with similar igneous rocks from the Truong Son and Tam Ky-Phuoc Son zones in southern Laos. Our study, along with Early Paleozoic igneous suites from southern Laos, central Vietnam and the Malay Peninsula, suggests an arc–back-arc system along the northern margin of Gondwana.Supplementary material: Tables of zircon U–Pb and in-situ Hf and geochemical data are available at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.5322386

Description: Tropical cyclones (TCs) propagating into baroclinic midlatitude environments can transform into extratropical cyclones, in some cases resulting in high-impact weather conditions far from the tropics. This study extends analysis of extratropical transition (ET) changes in multi-seasonal global simulations using the Model for Prediction Across Scales-Atmosphere (MPAS-A) under present-day and projected future conditions. High-resolution (15 km) covers the Northern Hemisphere; TCs and ET events are tracked based on sea-level pressure minima accompanied by a warm core and use of a cyclone phase space method. Previous analysis of these simulations showed large changes in ET over the North Atlantic (NATL) basin, with ET events exhibiting a 4–5° northward latitudinal shift and a ~6 hPa strengthening of the post-transition extratropical cyclone. Storm-relative composites, primarily representing post-transformation cold-core events, indicate that this increase in post-transition storm intensity is associated with an intensification of the neighboring upper-level trough and downstream ridge, and a poleward shift in the storm center, conducive to enhanced trough-TC interactions after ET completion. Additionally, the future composite ET event is located in the right-jet entrance of an outflow jet that is strengthened relative to its present-day counterpart. Localized impacts associated with ET events, such as heavy precipitation and strong near-surface winds, are significantly enhanced in the future-climate simulations; 6-hourly precipitation for NATL events increases at a super-Clausius-Clapeyron rate with area-average precipitation increasing over 30%. Furthermore, intensified precipitation contributes to enhanced lower-tropospheric potential vorticity and stronger upper-tropospheric outflow, implying the potential for more extreme downstream impacts under the future climate scenario.

Description: Observation of basin-scale networks of sandstone intrusions are described from subsurface studies and outcrop locations. Regional scale studies are prevalent in the volume and two new regionally significant subsurface sand injection complexes are described. Higher resolution studies, both outcrop and subsurface, show the small-scale complexity but high level of connectedness of sandstone intrusions. Discordance with bedding at all scales is diagnostic of sandstone intrusions. The propensity of hydraulic fractures to develop and fill with fluidised sand in a broad range of host rocks is demonstrated by examples from metamorphic and magmatic basement, and lignite. Terminology used to describe sandstone intrusions and other elements of sand injection complexes is diverse.

Description: Summary Seismic imaging techniques such as elastic full waveform inversion (FWI) have their spatial resolution limited by the maximum frequency present in the observed waveforms. Scales smaller than a fraction of the minimum wavelength cannot be resolved, and only a smoothed, effective version of the true underlying medium can be recovered. These finite-frequency effects are revealed by the upscaling or homogenization theory of wave propagation. Homogenization aims at computing larger scale effective properties of a medium containing small-scale heterogeneities. We study how this theory can be used in the context of FWI. The seismic imaging problem is broken down in a two-stage multiscale approach. In the first step, called homogenized full waveform inversion (HFWI), observed waveforms are inverted for a smooth, fully anisotropic effective medium, that does not contain scales smaller than the shortest wavelength present in the wavefield. The solution being an effective medium, it is difficult to directly interpret it. It requires a second step, called downscaling or inverse homogenization, where the smooth image is used as data, and the goal is to recover small-scale parameters. All the information contained in the observed waveforms is extracted in the HFWI step. The solution of the downscaling step is highly non-unique as many small-scale models may share the same long wavelength effective properties. We therefore rely on the introduction of external a priori information, and cast the problem in a Bayesian formulation. The ensemble of potential fine-scale models sharing the same long wavelength effective properties is explored with a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. We illustrate the method with a synthetic cavity detection problem: we search for the position, size and shape of void inclusions in a homogeneous elastic medium, where the size of cavities is smaller than the resolving length of the seismic data. We illustrate the advantages of introducing the homogenization theory at both stages. In HFWI, homogenization acts as a natural regularization helping convergence toward meaningful solution models. Working with fully anisotropic effective media prevents the leakage of anisotropy induced by the fine scales into isotropic macro-parameters estimates. In the downscaling step, the forward theory is the homogenization itself. It is computationally cheap, allowing us to consider geological models with more complexity (e.g. including discontinuities) and use stochastic inversion techniques.

Description: Summary Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV), a method based on image cross-correlation, is widely used for obtaining velocity fields from time series of images of deforming objects. Rather than instantaneous velocities, we are interested in reconstructing cumulative deformation, and use PIV-derived incremental displacements for this purpose. Our focus is on analogue models of tectonic processes, which can accumulate large deformation. Importantly, PIV provides incremental displacements during analogue model evolution in a spatial reference (Eulerian) frame, without the need for explicit markers in a model. We integrate the displacements in a material reference (Lagrangian) frame, such that displacements can be integrated to track the spatial accumulative deformation field as a function of time. To describe cumulative, finite deformation, various strain tensors have been developed, and we discuss what strain measure best describes large shape changes, as standard infinitesimal strain tensors no longer apply for large deformation. PIV or comparable techniques have become a common method to determine strain in analogue models. However, the qualitative interpretation of observed strain has remained problematic for complex settings. Hence, PIV-derived displacements have not been fully exploited before, as methods to qualitatively characterize cumulative, large strain have been lacking. Notably, in tectonic settings, different types of deformation - extension, shortening, strike-slip - can be superimposed. We demonstrate that when shape changes are described in terms of Hencky strains, a logarithmic strain measure, finite deformation can be qualitatively described based on the relative magnitude of the two principal Hencky strains. Thereby, our method introduces a physically meaningful classification of large 2D strains. We show that our strain type classification method allows for accurate mapping of tectonic structures in analogue models of lithospheric deformation, and complements visual inspection of fault geometries. Our method can easily discern complex strike-slip shear zones, thrust faults and extensional structures and its evolution in time. Our newly developed software to compute deformation is freely available and can be used to post-process incremental displacements from PIV or similar autocorrelation methods.

Description: Sue Bowler remembers the Guernsey-born astronomer

Description: Jacqueline Mitton examines one strand in the life and research of the pioneering astronomer

Description: Robert Massey ponders the potential post-pandemic world for those working in astronomy and geophysics, following an online meeting in January

Description: A digest of some of the big stories from the past two months

Description: Assimilation of dual-polarization (dual-pol) observations provides more accurate storm-scale analyses to initialize forecasts of severe convective thunderstorms. This study investigates the impact assimilating experimental sector-scan dual-pol observations has on storm-scale ensemble forecasts and how this impact changes over different data assimilation (DA) windows using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). Ensemble forecasts are initialized after 30, 45, and 60 minutes of DA for two sets of experiments that assimilate either reflectivity and radial velocity only (EXPZ) or reflectivity and radial velocity plus differential reflectivity (EXPZZDR). This study uses the 31 May 2013 Oklahoma event which included multiple storms that produced tornadoes and severe hail, with focus placed on two storms that impacted El Reno and Stillwater during the event.The earliest initialized forecast of EXPZZDR better predicts the evolution of the El Reno storm than EXPZ, but the two sets of experiments become similar at subsequent forecast times. However, the later EXPZZDR forecasts of the Stillwater storm, which organized towards the end of the DA window, produce improved results compared to EXPZ, in which the storm is less intense and weakens. Evaluation of forecast products for supercell mesocyclones (updraft helicity [UH]) and hail show similar results with earlier EXPZZDR forecasts better predicting the UH swaths of the El Reno storm and later forecasts producing improved UH and hail swaths for the Stillwater storm. The results indicate that the assimilation of ZDR over fewer DA cycles can produce improved forecasts when DA windows sufficiently cover storms during their initial development and organization.

Description: The characteristics of El-Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase-locking in observations and CMIP5 and CMIP6 models are examined in this study. Two metrics based on the peaking month histogram for all El Niño and La Niña events are adopted to delineate the basic features of ENSO phase-locking in terms of the preferred calendar month and strength of this preference. It turns out that most models are poor at simulating the ENSO phase-locking, either showing little peak strengths or peaking at the wrong seasons. By deriving ENSO’s linear dynamics based on the conceptual recharge oscillator (RO) framework through the seasonal linear inverse model (sLIM) approach, various simulated phase-locking behaviors of CMIP models are systematically investigated in comparison with observations. In observations, phase-locking is mainly attributed to the seasonal modulation of ENSO’s SST growth rate. In contrast, in a significant portion of CMIP models, phase-locking is co-determined by the seasonal modulations of both SST growth and phase-transition rates. Further study of the joint effects of SST growth and phase-transition rates suggests that for simulating realistic winter peak ENSO phase-locking with the right dynamics, climate models need to have four key factors in the right combination: (1) correct phase of SST growth rate modulation peaking at the fall; (2) large enough amplitude for the annual cycle in growth rate; (3) amplitude of semi-annual cycle in growth rate needs to be small; and (4) amplitude of seasonal modulation in SST phase-transition rate needs to be small.

Description: Undisturbed trade-wind conditions comprise the most prevalent synoptic weather pattern in Hawai’i and produces a distinct pattern of orographic rainfall. Significant total rainfall contributions and extreme events are linked to four types of atmospheric disturbances: cold fronts, Kona lows, upper-tropospheric disturbances, and tropical cyclones. In this study, a 20- year (1990-2010) categorical disturbance time series is compiled and analyzed in relation to daily rainfall over the same period. The primary objective of this research is to determine how disturbances contribute to total wet season rainfall on the Island of O’ahu, Hawai’i. On average, 41% of wet seasonal rainfall occurs on disturbance days. Seventeen percent of seasonal rainfall can be directly attributed to disturbances (after a background signal is removed) and as much as 48% in a single season. The intensity of disturbance rainfall (mm/day) is a stronger predictor (r2 = 0.49; p 〈 0.001) of the total seasonal rainfall than the frequency of occurrence (r2 = 0.11; p = 0.153). Cold fronts are the most common disturbance type; however, the rainfall associated with fronts that cross the island is significantly higher than rainfall produced from non-crossing fronts. In fact, non-crossing fronts produce significantly less rainfall than under mean non-disturbance conditions 76% of the time. While the combined influence of atmospheric disturbances can account for almost half of the rainfall received during the wet season, the primary factor in determining a relatively wet or dry season/year on O’ahu are the frequency and rainfall intensity of Kona Low events.

Description: We investigate how sea ice decline in summer and warmer ocean and surface temperatures in winter affect sea ice growth in the Arctic. Sea ice volume changes are estimated from satellite observations during winter from 2002 to 2019 and partitioned into thermodynamic growth and dynamic volume change. Both components are compared to validated sea ice-ocean models forced by reanalysis data to extend observations back to 1980 and to understand the mechanisms that cause the observed trends and variability. We find that a negative feedback driven by the increasing sea ice retreat in summer yields increasing thermodynamic ice growth during winter in the Arctic marginal seas eastward from the Laptev Sea to the Beaufort Sea. However, in the Barents and Kara Seas, this feedback seems to be overpowered by the impact of increasing oceanic heat flux and air temperatures, resulting in negative trends in thermodynamic ice growth of -2 km3month-1yr-1 on average over 2002-2019 derived from satellite observations.

Description: This study discusses the petrological and geochemical features of two monogenetic Miocene volcanoes, Mount Early and Sheridan Bluff, which are the above-ice expressions of Earth's southernmost volcanic field located at c. 87° S on the East Antarctic Craton. Their geochemistry is compared to basalts from the West Antarctic Rift System to test affiliation and resolve mantle sources and cause of melting beneath East Antarctica. Basaltic lavas and dykes are olivine-phyric and comprise alkaline (hawaiite and mugearite) and subalkaline (tholeiite) types. Trace element abundances and ratios (e.g. La/Yb, Nb/Y, Zr/Y) of alkaline compositions resemble basalts from the West Antarctic rift and ocean islands (OIB), while tholeiites are relatively depleted and approach the concentrations levels of enriched mid-ocean ridge basalt (E-MORB). The magmas evolved by fractional crystallization with contamination by crust; however, neither process can adequately explain the contemporaneous eruption of hawaiite and tholeiite at Sheridan Bluff. Our preferred scenario is that primary magmas of each type were produced by different degrees of partial melting from a compositionally similar mantle source. The nearly simultaneous generation of lower degrees of melting to produce alkaline types and higher degrees of melting forming tholeiite was most likely to have been facilitated by the detachment and dehydration of metasomatized mantle lithosphere.

Description: Two small monogenetic volcanoes are exposed at Mount Early and Sheridan Bluff, in the upper reaches of Scott Glacier. In addition, the presence of abundant fresh volcanic detritus in moraines at two other localities suggests further associated volcanism, now obscured by the modern Antarctic ice sheet. One of those occurrences has been attributed to a small subglacial volcano only c. 200 km from South Pole, making it the southernmost volcano in the world. All of the volcanic outcrops in the Scott Glacier region are grouped in a newly defined Upper Scott Glacier Volcanic Field, which is part of the McMurdo Volcanic Group (Western Ross Supergroup). The volcanism is early Miocene in age (c. 25–16 Ma), and the combination of tholeiitic and alkaline mafic compositions differs from the more voluminous alkaline volcanism in the West Antarctic Rift System. The Mount Early volcano was erupted subglacially, when the contemporary ice was considerably thicker than present. By contrast, lithologies associated with the southernmost volcano, currently covered by 1.5 km of modern ice, indicate that it was erupted when any associated ice was either much thinner or absent. The eruptive setting for Sheridan Bluff is uncertain and is still being investigated.

Description: The Erebus Volcanic Province is the largest Neogene volcanic province in Antarctica, extending c. 450 km north–south and 170 km wide east–west. It is dominated by large central volcanoes, principally Mount Erebus, Mount Bird, Mount Terror, Mount Discovery and Mount Morning, which have sunk more than 2 km into underlying sedimentary strata. Small submarine volcanoes are also common, as islands and seamounts in the Ross Sea (Terror Rift), and there are many mafic scoria cones (Southern Local Suite) in the Royal Society Range foothills and Dry Valleys. The age of the volcanism ranges between c. 19 Ma and present but most of the volcanism is

Description: Message diffusion and message persuasion are two important aspects of success for official risk messages about hazards. Message diffusion enables more people to receive lifesaving messages, and message persuasion motivates them to take protective actions. This study helps to identify win-win message strategies by investigating how an under-examined factor, message content that is theoretically important to message persuasion, influences message diffusion for official risk messages about heat hazards on Twitter. Using multilevel negative binomial regression models, the respective and cumulative effects of four persuasive message factors, hazard intensity, health risk susceptibility, health impact, and response instruction on retweet counts were analyzed using a dataset of heat-related tweets issued by U.S. National Weather Service accounts. Two subsets of heat-related tweets were also analyzed: 1) heat warning tweets about current or anticipated extreme heat events and 2) tweets about non-extreme heat events. This study found that heat-related tweets that mentioned more types of persuasive message factors were retweeted more frequently, and so were two subtypes of heat-related tweets. Mentions of hazard intensity also consistently predicted increased retweet counts. Mentions of health impacts positively influenced message diffusion for heat-related tweets and tweets about non-extreme heat events. Mentions of health risk susceptibility and response instructions positively predicted retweet counts for tweets about non-extreme heat events and tweets about official extreme heat warnings respectively. In the context of natural hazards, this research informs practitioners with evidence-based message strategies to increase message diffusion on social media. Such strategies also have the potential to improve message persuasion.

Description: The very strong Typhoon Goni passed over the Yaeyama Islands in southwestern Japan during the rapid intensification stage on August 23, 2015. Surface data collected by the dense network of weather stations as well as Doppler radar observations over the islands revealed a finescale structure in the inner core of the typhoon near the surface.Goni had a clear eye surrounded by a square-shaped eyewall with intense convection. The surface observations revealed that several vortices with a diameter of ~7–10 km accompanied by a pressure deficit were present inside the eye. From the Doppler velocity field, mesovortices approximately 10 km in diameter were found at the apexes of the square-shaped eyewall. These mesovortices and the inner rainbands emanating outward from the apexes of the polygonal eyewall generally exhibited features typical of vortex Rossby waves. The mesovortices were accompanied by a pressure deficit at the surface and enhanced surface winds. The data also indicated the first observational evidence of near-surface mixing between the eye and eyewall through the mesovortices, that is, the transport of high equivalent potential temperature in the eye toward the eyewall.The radar data revealed that many radar-reflectivity filaments that had a pleated shape with lengths of a few kilometers extended perpendicularly from the inner edge of the eyewall at low levels. The filaments associated with wind perturbations at low levels caused significant wind gusts accompanied by sudden pressure drops and shifts in wind direction at the surface.

Description: Topographic Rossby waves (TRWs) in the abyssal South China Sea (SCS) are investigated using observations and high-resolution numerical simulations. These energetic waves can account for over 40% of the kinetic energy (KE) variability in the deep western boundary current and seamount region in the central SCS. This proportion can even reach 70% over slopes in the northern and southern SCS. The TRW-induced currents exhibit columnar (i.e., in-phase) structure in which the speed increases downward. Wave properties such as the period (5–60 days), wavelength (100–500 km), and vertical trapping scale (102–103 m) vary significantly depending on environmental parameters of the SCS. The TRW energy propagates along steep topography with phase propagation offshore. TRWs with high frequencies exhibit a stronger climbing effect than low-frequency ones and hence can move further upslope. For TRWs with a certain frequency, the wavelength and trapping scale are dominated by the topographic beta, whereas the group velocity is more sensitive to the internal Rossby deformation radius. Background circulation with horizontal shear can change the wavelength and direction of TRWs if the flow velocity is comparable to the group velocity, particularly in the central, southern, and eastern SCS. A case study suggests two possible energy sources for TRWs: mesoscale perturbation in the upper layer and large-scale background circulation in the deep layer. The former provides KE by pressure work, whereas the latter transfers the available potential energy (APE) through baroclinic instability.

Description: A small integrated oceanographic thermometer with a nominal response time of 1 s was affixed to a floating hose “sea snake” towed near the bow of a research vessel. The sensor measured the near-surface ocean temperature accurately and in agreement with other platforms. The effect of conduction and evaporation is modeled for a sensor impulsively alternated between water and air. Large thermal mass makes most sea snake thermometers insensitive to temperature impulses. The smaller 1-s thermometer cooled by evaporation, but the sensor never reached the wet bulb temperature. The cooling was less than 6% of the (~2.7 °C) difference between the ocean temperature and the wet bulb temperature in 99% of 2 s–1 samples. Filtering outliers, such as with a median, effectively removes the evaporative cooling effect from 1- or 10-minute average temperatures.

Description: This paper presents applications of wavelet artificial neural networks (WANN) to forecast rainfalls one, three, six, and twelve months in advance using lagged monthly rainfall, maximum, minimum temperatures, Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), and Nino3.4 as predictors. Eight input datasets comprised of different combinations of predictive variables were used for ten candidate climate stations in Queensland, Australia. Datasets were split as 1908 to 1999 for the training of the model and 2000 to 2016 for the verification of the model. Also, the conventional Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model was developed with the same input datasets to compare with WANN results. Moreover, the skillfulness of the WANN was investigated with the current climate prediction system used by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator–Seasonal (ACCESS–S) as well as climatology forecasts. The comparisons showed that the WANN achieved the lowest errors for three-month lagged prediction with an average Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 38.6mm. In contrast, for the same lag-period, the average RMSEs from ANN, ACCESS-S, and climatology predictions were 72.2mm, 102.7mm, and 72.2mm, respectively. It is also found that the ANN underestimates the peak values with an average value of 49%, 47%, 52%, and 53% at one, three, six, and twelve months lead times, correspondingly. However, the corresponding peak values underestimation through the WANN were 0%, 1%, 22%, and 39%, respectively. This research provides promising insights into using hybrid methods for predicting rainfall a few months in advance, which is extremely beneficial for Australia’s agricultural industries.

Description: Soil moisture atmosphere interactions are key elements of the regional climate system. There is a well-founded hope that a more accurate representation of the soil moisture-precipitation feedback would improve the simulation of summer precipitation on daily to seasonal, to climate time scales. However, uncertainties have persistently remained as the simulated feedback is strongly sensitive to the model representation of deep convection. Here we assess the feedback representation using a GPU-accelerated version of the regional climate model COSMO. We simulate and compare the impact of continental-scale springtime soil-moisture anomalies on summer precipitation at convection-resolving (2.2 km) and convection-parameterizing resolution (12 km). We conduct re-analysis-driven simulations of 10 summer seasons (1999-2008) in continental Europe. While both simulations qualitatively agree on a positive sign of soil moisture-induced precipitation, they strongly differ in precipitation frequency: When convection is parameterized, wetter soil predominantly leads to more frequent precipitation events, and when convection is treated explicitly, they primarily become more intense. The results indicate that the sensitivity to soil moisture is stronger with parameterized convection, suggesting that the land surface-atmosphere coupling may be overestimated. In addition, the feedback’s sensitivity in complex terrain is assessed for soil perturbations of different horizontal scales. The convection-resolving simulations confirm a negative feedback for sub-continental soil moisture anomalies, which manifests itself in a local decrease of wet-hour frequency. However, the intensity feedback reinforces precipitation events at the same time (positive feedback). The two processes are represented differently in simulations with explicit and parameterized convection, explaining much of the difference between the two simulations.

Description: The Hudson Strait Platform and basins Tectono-Sedimentary Element (HSPB TSE) is part of a major topographic feature that connects Hudson Bay and Foxe Basin with the Labrador Sea in the Canadian Arctic. The Paleozoic succession (Ordovician to Silurian) unconformably overlies the Precambrian basement and reaches a maximum preserved thickness of less than 600 m on the islands. High-resolution marine seismic data indicate that the offshore part of the Hudson Strait is underlain by several fault-controlled sub-basins with a half-graben geometry. The sedimentary succession in the sub-basins is thicker than the one preserved in nearby islands and includes an upper sedimentary package for which the nature and age remain poorly constrained. Upper Ordovician source rocks have been mapped onshore. Known potential reservoir rocks consist of Ordovician clastics and Ordovician-Silurian reefs and dolostones.

Description: Summary It is generally accepted that melt extraction from the mantle at mid-ocean ridges is concentrated in narrow regions of elevated melt fraction called channels. Two feedback mechanisms have been proposed to explain why these channels grow by linear instability: shear flow of partially molten mantle and reactive flow of the ascending magma. These two mechanisms have been studied extensively, in isolation from each other, through theory and laboratory experiments as well as field and geophysical observations. Here, we develop a consistent theory that accounts for both proposed mechanisms and allows us to weigh their relative contributions. We show that interaction of the two feedback mechanisms is insignificant and that the total linear growth rate of channels is well-approximated by summing their independent growth rates. Furthermore, we explain how their competition is governed by the orientation of channels with respect to gravity and mantle shear. By itself, analysis of the reaction-infiltration instability predicts the formation of tube-shaped channels. We show that with the addition of even a small amount of extension in the horizontal, the combined instability favours tabular channels, consistent with the observed morphology of dunite bodies in ophiolites. We apply the new theory to mid-ocean ridges by calculating the accumulated growth and rotation of channels along streamlines of the solid flow. We show that reactive flow is the dominant instability mechanism deep beneath the ridge axis, where the most unstable orientation of high-porosity channels is sub-vertical. Channels are then rotated by the solid flow away from the vertical. The contribution of the shear-driven instability is confined to the margins of the melting region. Within the limitations of our study, the shear-driven feedback does not appear to be responsible for significant melt focusing or for the shallowly dipping seismic anisotropy that has been obtained by seismic inversions.

Description: The Devonian Period was a crucial interval in the evolution of plants. During its 60 myr duration, it witnessed the successive evolution of roots, wood, trees and forests, and many of the biogeomorphic phenomena that operate in modern terrestrial environments came online for the first time. The Old Red Sandstone (ORS) of Svalbard consists of a near-continuous Silurian to Late Devonian record of land plant-colonized sedimentary environments and provides a perfect natural laboratory to aid understanding of the facies signatures and evolution of these phenomena. Here we describe and illustrate a catalogue of ORS features that provide evidence for the stepwise appearance of novel plant-sediment interactions, including: preserved plant material and rooting structures, early large woody debris accumulations, cannel coal deposits, and the oldest known vegetation-induced sedimentary structures, in addition to vegetation-influenced motifs of elevated mudrock content and complex alluvial sand bodies. These characteristics are combined to reconstruct changes to non-marine environments in this Devonian ‘landscape factory’. In addition to tectonic and climate influences, plant evolution first served as a control on the construction of the sedimentary record during this period and has persisted as a fundamental influence on Earth surface processes and landforms ever since.

Description: Gaussberg is a nunatak composed of lamproite pillow lava situated on the coast of East Antarctica. It is the most isolated Quaternary volcanic centre in Antarctica but it is important palaeoenvironmentally and petrologically out of all proportion to its small size. The edifice has a likely low, shield-like, morphology c. 1200 m high and possibly up to 10 km wide, which is unusually large for a lamproite construct. Gaussberg was erupted subglacially at 56 ± 5 ka, which places it late in the last glacial, close to the peak of marine isotope stage 3. The coeval ice sheet was c. 1300 m thick, and c. 420 m has been removed from the ice surface since Gaussberg erupted. Lamproite is a rare ultrapotassic mantle-derived magma, and Gaussberg is one of two type examples worldwide. Although traditionally considered as related in some way to the Kerguelen plume, it is more likely that the Gaussberg magma is a product of a separate magmatic event. It is ascribed to the storage and long-term (Gy) isolation of sediment emplaced by subduction in the Transition Zone of the deep mantle, followed by entrainment and subsequent melting in a plume.

Description: Summary To understand earth processes, geoscientists infer subsurface earth properties such as electromagnetic resistivity or seismic velocity from surface observations of electromagnetic or seismic data. These properties are used to populate an earth model vector, and the spatial variation of properties across this vector sheds light on the underlying earth structure or physical phenomenon of interest, from groundwater aquifers to plate tectonics. However, to infer these properties the spatial characteristics of these properties need to be known in advance. Typically, assumptions are made about the length scales of earth properties, which are encoded a priori in a Bayesian probabilistic setting. In an optimisation setting, appeals are made to promote model simplicity together with constraints which keep models close to a preferred model. All of these approaches are valid, though they can lead to unintended features in the resulting inferred geophysical models owing to inappropriate prior assumptions, constraints or even the nature of the solution basis functions. In this work it will be shown that in order to make accurate inferences about earth properties, inferences can first be made about the underlying length scales of these properties in a very general solution basis. From a mathematical point of view, these spatial characteristics of earth properties can be conveniently thought of as “properties” of the earth properties. Thus, the same machinery used to infer earth properties can be used to infer their length scales. This can be thought of as an “infer to infer” paradigm analogous to the “learning to learn” paradigm which is now commonplace in the machine learning literature. However, it must be noted that (geophysical) inference is not the same as (machine) learning, though there are many common elements which allow for cross-pollination of useful ideas from one field to the other, as is shown here. A non-stationary trans-dimensional Gaussian Process (TDGP) is used to parameterise earth properties, and a multi-channel stationary TDGP is used to parameterise the length scales associated with the earth property in question. Using non-stationary kernels, i.e., kernels with spatially variable length scales, models with sharp discontinuities can be represented within this framework. As GPs are multi-dimensional interpolators, the same theory and computer code can be used to solve geophysical problems in 1D, 2D and 3D. This is demonstrated through a combination of 1D and 2D non-linear regression examples and a controlled source electromagnetic (CSEM) field example. The key difference between this and previous work using TDGP is generalised nested inference and the marginalisation of prior length scales for better posterior subsurface property characterisation.

Description: Summary The Z-transform of a complex time signal (or the analytic signal of a real signal) is equal to the Z-transform of a prediction error divided by the Z-transform of the prediction error operator. This inverse is decomposed into a sum of partial fractions, which are used to obtain impulse response operators formed by non-causal filters which complex-conjugate symmetric coefficients. The time-components are obtained by convolving the filters with the original signal, and the peak frequencies, corresponding to the poles of the prediction error operator, are used for mapping the time-components into frequency components. For non-stationary signals, this decomposition is done in sliding time windows, and the signal component values, in the middle of each window, are attributed to the peak value of its frequency response which corresponds to the pole of this partial fraction component. The result is an exact, but non-unique, time-frequency representation of the input signal. A sparse signal decomposition can be obtained by summing along the frequency axis in patches with similar characteristics in the time-frequency domain. The peak amplitude frequency of each new time component is obtained by computing a scalar prediction error operator in sliding time windows, resulting in a sparse time-frequency representation. In both cases, the result is a time-frequency matrix where an estimate of the frequency content of the input signal can be obtained by summation over the time variable. The performance of the new method is demonstrated with excellent results on a synthetic time signal, the LIGO gravitational wave signal, and on seismic field data.

Description: Summary Physical properties of near-surface soil and rock layers play a fundamental role in the seismic site effects analysis, being an essential element of seismic hazard assessment. Site-specific mechanical properties (i.e. shear- and compressional-wave velocities and mass density) can be inferred from surface wave dispersion and horizontal-to-vertical or ellipticity data by non-linear inversion techniques. Nevertheless, results typically exhibit significant inherent non-uniqueness as different models may fit the data equally well. Standard optimization inversion techniques minimize data misfit, resulting in a single representative model, rejecting other models providing similar misfit values. An alternative inversion technique can be formulated in the Bayesian framework, where the posterior probability density on the model space is inferred. This paper introduces an inversion approach of surface wave dispersion and ellipticity data based on a novel multizonal transdimensional Bayesian formulation. In particular, we parameterize one-dimensional layered velocity models by the varying number of Voronoi nuclei, allowing us to treat the number of layers as an unknown parameter of the inverse problem. The chosen parameterization leads to the transdimensional formulation of the model space, sampled by a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to provide an ensemble of random samples following the posterior probability density of model parameters. The used type of the sampling algorithm controls a model complexity (i.e. the number of layers) self-adaptively based on the measured data's information content. The method novelty lies in the parsimonious selection of sampling models and in the multizonal formulation of prior assumptions on model parameters, the latter allows including additional site-specific constraints in the inversion. These assumptions may be based on, e.g. stratigraphic logs, standard penetration tests, known water table, and bedrock depth. The multizonal formulation fully preserves the validity of the transdimensional one, as demonstrated analytically. The resultant ensemble of model samples is a discrete approximation of the posterior probability density function of model parameters and associated properties (e.g. VS30, quarter-wavelength average velocity profile, and theoretical SH-wave amplification function). Although the ultimate result is the posterior probability density function, some representative models are selected according to data fit and maximum of the posterior probability density function. We first validate our inversion approach based on synthetic tests and then apply it to field data acquired from the active seismic survey and single-station measurements of ambient vibrations at the SENGL seismic station site in central Switzerland.

Description: Volcán Quizapu, Chile, is an under-monitored volcano that was the site of two historical eruptions: an effusive eruption in 1846-1847 and a Plinian eruption in 1932, both of which discharged ∼5 km3 (DRE) of lava and/or tephra. The majority of material erupted in both cases is trachydacite, nearly identical for each event. We present H2O-saturated, phase equilibrium experiments on this end-member dacite magma, using a pumice sample from the 1932 eruption as the main starting material. At an oxygen fugacity (fO2) of ∼NNO+0.2, the phase assemblage of An25-30 plagioclase + amphibole + orthopyroxene, without biotite, is stable at 865±10 °C and 110±20 MPa H2O pressure (PH2O), corresponding to ∼4 km depth. At these conditions, experiments also reproduce the quenched glass composition of the starting pumice. At slightly higher PH2O and below 860 °C, biotite joins the equilibrium assemblage. Because biotite is not part of the observed Quizapu phase assemblage, its presence places an upper limit on PH2O. At the determined storage PH2O of ∼110 MPa, H2O undersaturation of the magma with XH20fluid==0.87 would align Ptotal to mineral-based geobarometry estimates of ∼130 MPa. However, XH20fluid=1〈 1 is not required to reproduce the Quizapu dacite phase assemblage and compositions. A second suite of experiments at lower fO2 shows that the stability fields of the hydrous silicates (amphibole and biotite) are significantly restricted at NNO-2 relative to NNO+0.2. Additional observations of Quizapu lava and pumice samples support the existing hypothesis that rapid pre-eruptive heating drove the effusive 1846-1847 eruption, with important refinements. We demonstrate that microlites in the end-member dacite lavas are consistent with in situ crystallization (during ascent), rather than transfer from an andesite. In one end-member dacite lava, newly identified reverse zoning in orthopyroxene and incipient destabilization of amphibole are consistent with small degrees of heating. Our work articulates a clear direction for future Quizapu studies, which are warranted given the active nature of the Cerro Azul-Descabezado Grande volcanic axis.

Description: Summary Until now, the polar motion resonance (PMR) complex frequency has been determined in the seasonal and retrograde diurnal band of the polar motion. In this study this resonance is studied in the prograde diurnal band, where polar motion is mainly composed of periodic terms caused by the diurnal oceanic tide. The resonance parameters (period and quality factor) are encompassed in the frequency transfer function between generating tidal potential and polar motion, and can be estimated accordingly. To this aim, we gather three published sets of prograde diurnal terms determined from GNSS and VLBI, to which we append our own estimates based upon a processing of the VLBI delays over the period 1990-2020. Then, by fitting the PMR parameters so that the prograde diurnal terms match the corresponding components of the tide generating potential, we obtained a resonance period of about 401 days and an equivalent quality factor of −22, differing from the ones reigning in the seasonal band (PPMR ≈ 431 days; QPMR ≈ 56 − 255) and in the retrograde diurnal band (PPMR ≈ 380 days; QPMR ≈ −10). Our estimates confirm strikingly the theoretical prediction derived from the tidal ocean angular momentum derived from the FES 2014 ocean tide model.

Description: Ocean heat transport (OHT) plays a key role in climate and its variability. Here, we identify modes of low-frequency North Atlantic OHT variability by applying a low-frequency component analysis (LFCA) to output from three global climate models. The first low-frequency component (LFC), computed using this method, is an index of OHT variability that maximizes the ratio of low-frequency variance (occurring at decadal and longer timescales) to total variance. Lead-lag regressions of atmospheric and ocean variables onto the LFC timeseries illuminate the dominant mechanisms controlling low-frequency OHT variability. Anomalous northwesterly winds from eastern North America over the North Atlantic act to increase upper ocean density in the Labrador Sea region, enhancing deep convection, which later increases OHT via changes in the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The strengthened AMOC carries warm, salty water into the subpolar gyre, reducing deep convection and weakening AMOC and OHT. This mechanism, where changes in AMOC and OHT are driven primarily by changes in Labrador Sea deep convection, holds not only in models where the climatological (i.e., time-mean) deep convection is concentrated in the Labrador Sea, but also in models where the climatological deep convection is concentrated in the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian (GIN) Seas or the Irminger and Iceland Basins. These results suggest that despite recent observational evidence suggesting that the Labrador Sea plays a minor role in driving the climatological AMOC, the Labrador Sea may still play an important role in driving low-frequency variability in AMOC and OHT.

Description: The prediction skill of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in boreal winter is assessed in the operational models of the WCRP/WWRP Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) prediction project. Model performance in representing the contribution of different processes to the NAO forecast skill is evaluated. The S2S models with relatively higher stratospheric vertical resolutions (high-top models) are in general more skillful in predicting the NAO than those models with relatively lower stratospheric resolutions (low-top models). Comparison of skill is made between different groups of forecasts based on initial condition characteristics: phase and amplitude of the NAO, easterly and westerly phases of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), warm and cold phases of ENSO, and phase and amplitude of the Madden-Julia Oscillation (MJO). The forecasts with a strong NAO in the initial condition are more skillful than with a weak NAO. Those with negative NAO tend to have more skillful predictions than positive NAO. Comparisons of NAO skill between forecasts during easterly and westerly QBO and between warm and cold ENSO show no consistent difference for the S2S models. Forecasts with strong initial MJO tend to be more skillful in the NAO prediction than weak MJO. Among the eight phases of MJO in the initial condition, phases 3-4 and phase 7 have better NAO forecast skills compared with the other phases.The results of this study have implications for improving our understanding of sources of predictability of the NAO. The situation dependence of the NAO prediction skill is likely useful in identifying “ windows of opportunity” for subseasonal to seasonal predictions.

Description: Calc-alkaline lamprophyres from the western Carpathians occur as dykes and sills in the crystalline complexes (predominantly granites and gneisses) of the Tatric Unit. Some of the lamprophyre dykes have been strongly overprinted by tectonism and hydrothermal fluid ingress. They have a similar mineralogical composition, and they are comprised of clinopyroxene, amphibole, biotite and plagioclase. Based on their modal composition, they can be classified as spessartites and kersantites, and based on their geochemical composition, most of them are of calc-alkali type. Lamprophyres from individual core complexes (e.g. the Malá Fatra Mountains and Nízke Tatry Mountains) exhibit variable Nb, Ta and Sr-Nd isotope signatures. These differences are probably due to compositional variations in the mantle source and/or the lower crust at the site of lamprophyre melt generation, or variable incorporation of crustal material. The age of the lamprophyres is Permian (ca. 265 Ma) based on U-Pb LA-ICP-MS dating of apatite micro-phenocrysts.

Description: This study presents results from the Polar Amplification Multimodel Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) single-year time-slice experiments that aim to isolate the atmospheric response to Arctic sea ice loss at global warming levels of +2°C. Using two General Circulation Models (GCMs), the ensemble size is increased up to 300 ensemble members, beyond the recommended 100 members. After partitioning the response in groups of 100-ensemble members, the reproducibility of the results is evaluated, with a focus on the response of the mid-latitude jet streams in the North Atlantic and North Pacific. Both atmosphere-only and coupled ocean-atmosphere PAMIP experiments are analyzed. Substantial differences in the mid-latitude response are found among the different experiment subsets, suggesting that 100-member ensembles are still significantly influenced by internal variability, which can mislead conclusions. Despite an overall stronger response, the coupled ocean-atmosphere runs exhibit greater spread due to additional ENSO-related internal variability when the ocean is interactive. The lack of consistency in the response is true for anomalies that are statistically significant according to Student’s-t and False Discovery Rate tests. This is problematic for the multi-model assessment of the response, as some of the spread may be attributed to different model sensitivities while it is due to internal variability. We propose a method to overcome this consistency issue, that allows for more robust conclusions when only 100 ensemble members are used.

Description: Ancillary information that exists within rain gauge and radar-based data sets provides opportunities to better identify error and bias between the two observing platforms as compared to error and bias statistics without ancillary information. These variables include precipitation type identification, air temperature, and radar quality. There are two NEXRAD based data sets used for reference; the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) stage IV and the NOAA NEXRAD Reanalysis (NNR) gridded data sets. The NCEP stage IV data set is available at 4km hourly and includes radar-gauge bias adjusted precipitation estimates. The NNR data set is available at 1km at 5-minute and hourly time intervals and includes several different variables such as reflectivity, radar-only estimates, precipitation flag, radar quality indicator, and radar-gauge bias adjusted precipitation estimates. The NNR data product provides additional information to apply quality control such as identification of precipitation type, identification of storm type and Z-R relation. Other measures of quality control are a part of the NNR data product development. In addition, some of the variables are available at 5-minute scale. We compare the radar-based estimates with the rain gauge observations from the U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN). The USCRN network is available at the 5-minute scale and includes observations of air temperature, wind, and soil moisture among others. We present statistical comparisons of rain gauge observations with radar-based estimates by segmenting information based on precipitation type, air temperature, and radar quality indicator.

Description: Current-topography interactions in the ocean give rise to eddies spanning a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Latest modeling efforts indicate that coastal and underwater topography are important generation sites for submesoscale coherent vortices (SCVs), characterized by horizontal scales of (0.1 – 10) km. Using idealized, submesoscale and BBL-resolving simulations and adopting an integrated vorticity balance formulation, we quantify precisely the role of bottom boundary layers (BBLs) in the vorticity generation process. In particular, we show that vorticity generation on topographic slopes is attributable primarily to the torque exerted by the vertical divergence of stress at the bottom. We refer to this as the Bottom Stress Divergence Torque (BSDT). BSDT is a fundamentally nonconservative torque that appears as a source term in the integrated vorticity budget and is to be distinguished from the more familiar Bottom Stress Curl (BSC). It is closely connected to the bottom pressure torque (BPT) via the horizontal momentum balance at the bottom and is in fact shown to be the dominant component of BPT in solutions with a well-resolved BBL. This suggests an interpretation of BPT as the sum of a viscous, vorticity generating component (BSDT) and an inviscid, ‘flow-turning ’ component. Companion simulations without bottom drag illustrate that although vorticity generation can still occur through the inviscid mechanisms of vortex stretching and tilting, the wake eddies tend to have weaker circulation, be substantially less energetic, and have smaller spatial scales.

Description: The response of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) to changes in Southern Ocean (SO) zonal wind forcing and Pacific basin vertical diffusivity is investigated under varying buoyancy forcings, corresponding to ‘warm’, ‘present-day’ and ‘cold’ states, in a two-basin general circulation model connected by a southern circumpolar channel. We find that the Atlantic MOC (AMOC) strengthens with increased SO wind stress or diffusivity in the model Pacific, under all buoyancy forcings. The sensitivity of the AMOC to wind stress increases as the buoyancy forcing is varied from a warm to a present-day or cold state, whereas it is most sensitive to the Pacific diffusivity in a present-day or warm state. Similarly, the AMOC is more sensitive to buoyancy forcing over the Southern Ocean under reduced wind stress or enhanced Pacific diffusivity. These results arise because of the increased importance of the Pacific pathway in the warmer climates, giving an increased linkage between the basins and so the opportunity for the diffusivity in the Pacific to affect the overturning in the Atlantic. In cooler states, such as in glacial climates, the two basins are largely decoupled and the wind strength over the SO is the primary determinant of the AMOC strength. Both wind- and diffusively-driven upwelling sustain the AMOC in the warmer (present-day) state. Changes in SO wind stress alone do not shoal the AMOC to resemble that observed at the last glacial maximum; changes in the buoyancy forcing are also needed to decouple the two basins.