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  • Other Sources  (39)
  • John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  (37)
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  • 1
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    Feasibility of pXRF to evaluate chosen heavy metals in soil highly influenced by municipal waste disposal—A monitoring study of a former sewage farm (2022)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-04-04
    Description: Sewage disposal onto agricultural land may result in the high accumulation of organic wastes, which questions the applicability of typical elemental analysis used for the soil components. To monitor the contamination status of agricultural soils at a former sedimentation basin, after the long‐term cessation of wastewater irrigation, 110 locations (15–20 cm depth) and 4 boreholes (up to 100 cm depth) were sampled to determine pH, loss on ignition, and concentration of Ni, Cu, Pb, Zn, and Cr. Additionally, the applicability of portable X‐ray fluorescence (pXRF) for the soil samples highly influenced by the organic wastes was evaluated. The study revealed the presence of a relatively homogenous sewage waste layer (depth of 20 cm), characterized by slightly acidic to neutral pH (6.3–7.5), high organic matter (OM) accumulation (up to 49%), and elevated concentration (mg kg −1) ranges between: Pb (5–321), Cu (31–2828), Ni (10–193), Cr (14–966), and Zn (76–6639). The pXRF analysis revealed metal concentration increase in mineral samples (up to 50%). The regression models and correction factors demonstrated high correlation and significance of pXRF measurement with response to increasing OM content, with the lowest r 2 = 0.86 obtained for Ni. Correlation of pXRF and AES measurement illustrated element‐dependent response for soils high in organics. Zn, Cu, and Cr pXRF analysis led to a slight underestimation in lower values, but overall good correlations (0.87; 0.89; and 0.88 respectively). Pb and Ni pXRF measurement revealed higher deviation from the reference in both lower and higher concentrations (0.74 and 0.70, respectively).
    Description: German Federation of Industrial Research Associations http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002723
    Description: Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100006360
    Keywords: ddc:577.14
    Language: English
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  • 2
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    Spatio‐temporal patterns in degradation and restoration of gravel bars along Alpine rivers (2022)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-06-28
    Description: Braided reaches were common along near‐natural Alpine rivers, and the associated habitat dynamics supported plant and animal species specialized on early‐successional stages. The extensive riparian zones could mitigate climate change by absorbing floods and by retaining water during droughts. Human impacts largely reduced active river corridors through altered discharge and construction of dykes, while recent restoration projects aim at increasing river dynamics. The causes and consequences of Alpine river degradation are well understood, but there are only few quantitative studies on floodplain degradation and restoration. Thus, we have reconstructed historical changes of gravel bars along five Alpine rivers (Iller, Inn, Isar, Lech, and Wertach) in Southern Germany in the period 1808–2009, based on historical maps and aerial images. We found losses of 〉90% in gravel bar area along these rivers since the mid‐19th century. The decline was caused by a reduction of the active river corridor and by ongoing succession of the remaining open habitats. Within the past 30 years, at the Isar River, restoration measures were realized with the aim to widen the active river corridor and to recreate gravel bars. In four restored reaches, we found that 5% of the historical gravel bar area recovered, and that the proportion of restored gravel bar area was highest after intermediate flooding. We conclude that the active river corridors of German Alpine rivers are almost completely lost, and that more extensive restoration needs to be done to preserve the habitat dynamics and biodiversity of these systems, and to adapt Alpine rivers to climate change.
    Description: Deutsche Bundesstiftung Umwelt http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100007636
    Keywords: ddc:551.35
    Language: English
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  • 3
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    Comparing the performance of high‐resolution global precipitation products across topographic and climatic gradients of Central Asia (2022)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-10-13
    Description: Accurate and reliable precipitation data with high spatial and temporal resolution are essential in studying climate variability, water resources management, and hydrological forecasting. A range of global precipitation data are available to this end, but how well these capture actual precipitation remains unknown, particularly for mountain regions where ground stations are sparse. We examined the performance of three global high‐resolution precipitation products for capturing precipitation over Central Asia, a hotspot of climate change, where reliable precipitation data are particularly scarce. Specifically, we evaluated MSWEP, CHIRPS, and GSMAP against independent gauging stations for the period 1985–2015. Our results show that MSWEP and CHIRPS outperformed GSMAP for wetter periods (i.e., winter and spring) and wetter locations (150–600 mm·year−1), lowlands, and mid‐altitudes (0–3,000 m), and regions dominated by winter and spring precipitation. MSWEP performed best in representing temporal precipitation dynamics and CHIRPS excelled in capturing the volume and distribution of precipitation. All precipitation products poorly estimated precipitation at higher elevations (〉3,000 m), in drier areas (〈150 mm), and in regions characterized by summer precipitation. All products accurately detected dry spells, but their performance decreased for wet spells with increasing precipitation intensity. In sum, we find that CHIRPS and MSWEP provide the most reliable high‐resolution precipitation estimates for Central Asia. However, the high spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the performance call for a careful selection of a suitable product for local applications considering the prevailing precipitation dynamics, climatic, and topographic conditions.
    Description: We present the first quantitative evaluation of global high‐resolution (below 12 km) precipitation products against independent ground observations over Central Asia. Our results show that MSWEP was best at representing temporal precipitation dynamics, and CHIRPS was most prominent in representing the volume and distribution of precipitation. This is especially the case of wet seasons, altitudes below 3,000 m, and regions dominated by spring and winter precipitation. Our analysis provides key insights on the precipitation products' suitability for local hydrological applications.
    Description: Leibniz‐Institut für Agrarentwicklung in Transformationsökonomien
    Description: Volkswagen Foundation http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001663
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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  • 4
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    A storyline attribution of the 2011/2012 drought in Southeastern South America (2022)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
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    Publication Date: 2022-08-04
    Description: The 2011/2012 summer drought in Southeastern South America (SESA) was a short but devastating event. What would this event have looked like under pre‐industrial conditions, or in a +2 degC world? We find that climate change causes the region to be at a higher risk of drought. However, we found no large‐scale changes in the half‐month water budgets. We show that the climate change induced positive precipitation trend in the region outweighs the increased temperatures and potential evapotranspiration during the 2011/2012 drought. image
    Keywords: ddc:551.5
    Language: English
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  • 5
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    On gravity wave parameterisation in vicinity of low‐level blocking (2022)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-09-22
    Description: This note is framed as an open question to the community regarding parameterisation schemes using the blocking layer depth to reduce the orographic gravity wave drag. It is the purpose of this note to argue that the current orographic gravity wave drag parameterisation in the vicinity of blocking is inadequate. Reducing the gravity wave amplitude (and thereby reducing the gravity wave drag) by assuming an effective mountain height dependent on the blocking depth is not realistic. The arguments given here will hopefully spark a debate and new considerations, ultimately leading to improvements in current orographic gravity wave drag parameterisations. This note illustrates that low‐level blocking can induce more gravity waves or gravity waves with a higher momentum flux (compared to the current parameterisation schemes). More realistic parameterisation schemes are likely to improve the models' performance. However, the fact is complex theories are needed to describe gravity wave excitation by orography so that it is difficult to represent gravity wave nature by a ‘too simple’ parameterisation scheme.
    Description: The purpose of this letter is to provide arguments that the current gravity wave drag parameterisation in the vicinity of blocking is inadequate. Reducing the gravity wave drag depending on the blocking depth is not a realistic representation. The letter lists five ways in which the blocking layer can result in a greater amount of gravity wave drag.
    Keywords: ddc:551.5
    Language: English
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  • 6
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    How close are we to 1.5 degC or 2 degC of global warming? (2022)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
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    Publication Date: 2022-08-09
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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  • 7
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    Highly resolved modeling of extreme wind speed in North America and Europe (2022)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-08-09
    Description: High wind speed (U) is one of the most dangerous natural hazards in North America and Europe. As a result, spatially explicit, statistical estimation of extreme U is of particular relevance for many sectors. However, the most common sources of wind speed data such as reanalysis data and in situ measurements are limited for this purpose due to their coarse spatial resolution and low representativeness. Thus, the main goal was to develop a high spatial resolution (250 m × 250 m) model (GloWiSMo‐X) for monthly mapping of the maximum hourly U for a 10‐year return period (U10yr) in North America and Europe. The multistep development of GloWiSMo‐X is based on 2544 hourly U time series available from the integrated surface global hourly meteorological data set (UNCEI), U time series from ERA5 (UERA5), and mean wind speed from the Global Wind Speed Model (U¯GloWiSMo). Firstly, the block maxima method was applied to estimate monthly wind speed for a 10‐year return period for both UNCEI (U10yr,NCEI) and UERA5 (U10yr,ERA5). Secondly, the least squares boosting approach was used to predict the target variable U10yr,NCEI yielding the predictions Û10yr. The predictor variables U10yr,ERA5, U¯GloWiSMo, continent, and month were used as input. It was found that the highest monthly continental means of Û10yr (U¯10yr) in January are 16.4 m/s in North America and 16.3 m/s in Europe. U¯10yr dropped to 13.4 m/s and 12.5 m/s in August. The annual cycle of U¯10yr is more pronounced in Europe than in North America. The central parts of the USA and Western Europe were identified as intracontinental regions with the highest U¯10yr. GloWiSMo‐X proves to be very broadly applicable as it covers two different continents and all months. The model validation by the mean squared error (MSE) demonstrates its improved predictive power compared to ERA5.
    Description: A high spatial resolution (250 m × 250 m) model (GloWiSMo‐X) for monthly mapping of the maximum hourly wind speed for a 10‐year return period in North America and Europe was developed. The highest monthly continental means are 16.4 m/s in North America and 16.3 m/s in Europe. Due to the pronounced annual cycle, it drops to 13.4 m/s and 12.5 m/s in August. image
    Description: Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz und nukleare Sicherheit
    Keywords: ddc:551.5
    Language: English
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  • 8
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    Responses of soil organic carbon, aggregate diameters, and hydraulic properties to long‐term organic and conventional farming on a Vertisol in India (2022)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-08-09
    Description: Organic matter management can improve soil structural properties. This is crucial for agricultural soils in tropical regions threatened by high rainfall intensities. Compared to conventional farming, organic farming is usually deemed to increase organic carbon and improve soil structural properties such as stability and permeability. However, how much, if any, buildup of organic carbon is possible or indeed occurring also depends on soil type and environmental factors. We compared the impact of seven years of organic farming (annually 13.6 t ha−1 of composted manure) with that of conventional practices (2 t ha−1 of farmyard manure with 150–170 kg N ha−1 of mineral fertilizers) on soil structural properties. The study was conducted on a Vertisol in India with a two‐year crop rotation of cotton soybean wheat. Despite large differences in organic amendment application, organic carbon was not significantly different at 9.6 mg C g−1 on average in the topsoil. However, the size distribution of water‐stable aggregates shifted toward more aggregates 〈137 μm in the organic systems. Cumulative water intake was lower compared to the conventional systems, leading to higher runoff and erosion. These changes might be related to the lower pH and higher exchangeable sodium in the organic systems. Our results indicate that higher application of organic amendments did not lead to higher soil organic carbon and associated improvement in soil structures properties compared to integrated fertilization in this study. Chemical properties may dominate soil aggregation retarding the uptake and integration of organic amendments for sustainable agricultural intensification in tropical, semiarid climates.
    Description: Biovision Foundation for Ecological Development http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100015593
    Description: Coop Sustainability Fund
    Description: Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC)
    Description: Foundation fiat panis http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100011087
    Description: Liechtenstein Development Service http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100015698
    Description: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.18665612
    Keywords: ddc:631.4
    Language: English
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  • 9
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    Atmospheric circulation patterns that trigger heavy rainfall in West Africa (2022)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
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    Publication Date: 2022-12-05
    Description: Classification of atmospheric circulation patterns (CP) is a common tool for downscaling rainfall, but it is rarely used for West Africa. In this study, a two‐step classification procedure is proposed for this region, which is applied from 1989 to 2010 for the Sudan‐Sahel zone (Central Burkina Faso) with a focus on heavy rainfall. The approach is based on a classification of large‐scale atmospheric CPs (e.g., Saharan Heat Low) of the West African Monsoon using a fuzzy rule‐based method to describe the seasonal rainfall variability. The wettest CPs are further classified using meso‐scale monsoon patterns to better describe the daily rainfall variability during the monsoon period. A comprehensive predictor screening for the seasonal classification indicates that the best performing predictor variables (e.g., surface pressure, meridional moisture fluxes) are closely related to the main processes of the West African Monsoon. In the second classification step, the stream function at 700 hPa for identifying troughs and ridges of tropical waves shows the highest performance, providing an added value to the overall performance of the classification. Thus, the new approach can better distinguish between dry and wet CPs during the rainy season. Moreover, CPs are identified that are of high relevance for daily heavy rainfall in the study area. The two wettest CPs caused roughly half of the extremes on about 6.5% of days. Both wettest patterns are characterized by an intensified Saharan Heat Low and a cyclonic rotation near the study area, indicating a tropical wave trough. Since the classification can be used to condition other statistical approaches used in climate sciences and other disciplines, the presented classification approach opens many different applications for the West African Monsoon region.
    Description: A two‐step classification of daily atmospheric circulation patterns is used to describe seasonal and daily rainfall variability in West Africa. The approach clearly distinguishes between dry and wet patterns if sea level pressure and stream function at 700 hPa are used. The two wettest patterns trigger about half of heavy rainfall events in Central Burkina Faso. They are characterized by an intensified Saharan Heat Low and a cyclonic rotation indicating a tropical wave trough near the study area.
    Description: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Keywords: ddc:551.5 ; circulation pattern ; classification ; downscaling ; heavy rainfall ; West Africa
    Language: English
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  • 10
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    Extreme precipitation events in the Mediterranean: Spatiotemporal characteristics and connection to large‐scale atmospheric flow patterns (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-01
    Description: The Mediterranean region is strongly affected by extreme precipitation events (EPEs), sometimes leading to severe negative impacts on society, economy, and the environment. Understanding such natural hazards and their drivers is essential to mitigate related risks. Here, EPEs over the Mediterranean between 1979 and 2019 are analysed, using ERA5, the latest reanalysis dataset from ECMWF. EPEs are determined based on the 99th percentile of their daily distribution (P99). The different EPE characteristics are assessed, based on seasonality and spatiotemporal dependencies. To better understand their connection to large‐scale atmospheric flow patterns, Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis and subsequent non‐hierarchical K‐means clustering are used to quantify the importance of weather regimes to EPE frequency. The analysis is performed for different variables, depicting atmospheric variability in the lower and middle troposphere. Results show a clear spatial division in EPE occurrence, with winter and autumn being the seasons of highest EPE frequency for the eastern and western Mediterranean, respectively. There is a high degree of temporal dependencies with 20% of the EPEs (median value based on all studied grid cells), occurring up to 1 week after a preceding P99 event at the same location. Local orography is a key modulator of the spatiotemporal connections and substantially enhances the probability of co‐occurrence of EPEs even for distant locations. The clustering clearly demonstrates the prevalence of distinct synoptic‐scale atmospheric conditions during the occurrence of EPEs for different locations within the region. Results indicate that clustering, based on a combination of sea level pressure (SLP) and geopotential height at 500 hPa (Z500), can increase the conditional probability of EPEs by more than three (3) times (median value for all grid cells) from the nominal probability of 1% for the P99 EPEs. Such strong spatiotemporal dependencies and connections to large‐scale patterns can support extended‐range forecasts.
    Description: This study analyses the spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation events over the Mediterranean, and their connection to large‐scale atmospheric flow patterns. It is shown that by conditioning the extremes based on the atmospheric variability in the low‐ and mid‐troposphere, their probability increases more than threefold, when using nine clusters to group all the synoptic daily patterns. This finding can support extended‐range forecasts, as for such lead times the NWP models are more skillful in predicting large‐scale patterns than localized extremes.
    Description: Marie Skłodowska‐Curie
    Description: European Union's Horizon 2020
    Keywords: 551.6 ; extreme precipitation ; large‐scale/circulation patterns ; Mediterranean ; weather regimes
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  • 11
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    Prioritizing reaches for restoration in a regulated Alpine river: Locally driven versus hydro‐morphologically based actions (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
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    Publication Date: 2021-06-27
    Description: We discuss the prioritization of river reaches to be selected for restoration measures under the constraints of financial resource limitation. We propose and apply a simple approach based on the quantification of major hydro‐morphological alterations and the critical comparison with locally proposed restoration actions. The available hydro‐morphological and ecological data for the approach do not go beyond the requirements posed by the implementation of the EU Water Framework and Floods Directives. We describe an example that refers to a heavily regulated Alpine river (Sarca River, NE Italy). The results indicate hydropower facilities as a key source of hydrological alteration, with sediment retention and grade control structures on lateral tributaries playing an additional relevant role in reducing sediment supply. The frequency and duration of sediment‐transporting floods have dramatically decreased, and the bed sediment composition has been markedly altered and become highly compacted. Habitat improvement has been achieved after the implementation of minimum environmental flows. The comparison between the results of the hydro‐morphological indicators and the locally proposed restoration actions highlights that reaches with lower degree of hydro‐morphological alterations do not coincide with the areas chosen for the locally planned actions, which often miss considerations of the relevant spatial scales. In a context of limited available financial resources and data compared to other flagship river restoration projects in the European Alps, the present work suggests viable options for the choice of target restoration reaches.
    Description: Consorzio dei Comuni BIM Sarca
    Description: Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research (MIUR)
    Description: Rete di Riserve della Sarca
    Keywords: 333.91 ; ecological flows ; hydropower ; regulated rivers ; sediment transport
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  • 12
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    Extreme precipitation events over northern Italy. Part II: Dynamical precursors (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
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    Publication Date: 2021-07-20
    Description: The connection between weather extremes and Rossby wave packets (RWP) has been increasingly documented in recent years. RWP propagation and characteristics can modulate the midlatitude weather, setting the scene for temperature and precipitation extremes and controlling the geographical area affected. Several studies on extreme precipitation events (EPEs) in the Alpine area reported, as the main triggering factor, a meridionally elongated upper‐level trough as part of an incoming Rossby wave packet. In this work, we investigate a wide number of EPEs occurring between 1979 and 2015 in northern‐central Italy. The EPEs are subdivided into three categories (Cat1, Cat2, Cat3) according to thermodynamic conditions over the affected region. It is found that the three categories differ not only in terms of the local meteorological conditions, but also in terms of the evolution and properties of precursor RWPs. These differences cannot be solely explained by the apparent seasonality of the flow; therefore, the relevant physical processes in the RWP propagation of each case are further investigated. In particular, we show that RWPs associated with the strongest EPEs, namely the ones falling in Cat2, undergo a substantial amplification over the western North Atlantic due to anomalous ridge‐building 2 days before the event; arguably due to diabatic heating sources. This type of development induces a downstream trough which is highly effective in focusing water vapour transport toward the main orographic barriers of northern‐central Italy and favouring the occurrence of EPEs.
    Description: The EPEs are subdivided into three categories (Cat1, Cat2, Cat3) according to thermodynamic conditions over the affected region. The three categories not only differ locally but also in the evolution of precursor RWPs as visible in the composite Hovmöller plots. RWPs associated with the strongest EPEs, the ones falling in Cat2, undergo a substantial amplification over the west North Atlantic due to anomalous ridge‐building 2 days before the event. This type of development induces a downstream trough which is highly effective in focusing water vapour transport toward the Apennines and the Alps.
    Description: Ludwig‐Maximilians‐Universität München http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100005722
    Description: German Research Foundation (DFG)
    Description: Transregional Collaborative Research Centre
    Keywords: 551.6 ; atmospheric rivers ; extreme precipitation ; integrated water vapour transport ; large‐scale forcing ; potential vorticity ; Rossby wave packets
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  • 13
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    WRF‐based dynamical downscaling of ERA5 reanalysis data for High Mountain Asia: Towards a new version of the High Asia Refined analysis (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
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    Publication Date: 2021-07-03
    Description: The High Asia Refined analysis (HAR) is a regional atmospheric data set generated by dynamical downscaling of the Final operational global analysis (FNL) using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. It has been successfully and widely utilized. A new version (HAR v2) with longer temporal coverage and extended domains is currently under development. ERA5 reanalysis data is used as forcing data. This study aims to find the optimal set‐up for the production of the HAR v2 to provide similar or even better accuracy as the HAR. First, we conducted a sensitivity study, in which different cumulus, microphysics, planetary boundary layer, and land surface model schemes were compared and validated against in situ observations. The technique for order preference by similarity to the ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was applied to identify the best schemes. Snow depth in ERA5 is overestimated in High Mountain Asia (HMA) and causes a cold bias in the WRF output. Therefore, we used Japanese 55‐year Reanalysis (JRA‐55) to correct snow depth initialized from ERA5 based on the linear scaling approach. After applying the best schemes identified by the TOPSIS method and correcting the initial snow depth, the model performance improves. Finally, we applied the improved set‐up for the HAR v2 and computed a one‐year run for 2011. Compared to the HAR, the HAR v2 has a better representation of air temperature at 2 m. It produces slightly higher precipitation amounts, but the spatial distribution of seasonal mean precipitation is closer to observations.
    Description: German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Keywords: 551.5 ; cold bias ; dynamical downscaling ; ERA5 ; HAR ; High Mountain Asia ; snow depth ; WRF
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  • 14
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    Hydro Explorer: An interactive web app to investigate changes in runoff timing and runoff seasonality all over the world (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
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    Publication Date: 2021-06-27
    Description: Climatic changes and anthropogenic modifications of the river basin or river network have the potential to fundamentally alter river runoff. In the framework of this study, we aim to analyze and present historic changes in runoff timing and runoff seasonality observed at river gauges all over the world. In this regard, we develop the Hydro Explorer, an interactive web app, which enables the investigation of 〉7,000 daily resolution discharge time series from the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC). The interactive nature of the developed web app allows for a quick comparison of gauges, regions, methods, and time frames. We illustrate the available analytical tools by investigating changes in runoff timing and runoff seasonality in the Rhine River Basin. Since we provide the source code of the application, existing analytical approaches can be modified, new methods added, and the tool framework can be re‐used to visualize other data sets.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: WOA Institution: UNIVERSITAET POTSDAM Blended DEAL: ProjektDEAL
    Keywords: 551.488 ; global runoff database ; interactive web app ; R Shiny ; runoff seasonality ; runoff timing
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  • 15
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    Unusual appearance of mother‐of‐pearl clouds above El Calafate, Argentina (50°21′S, 72°16′W) (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
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    Publication Date: 2021-04-29
    Description: Visual observations from the ground and from a glider soaring in the lowermost stratosphere revealed the existence of stratospheric mother‐of‐pearl clouds above El Calafate in the lee of the Andes on 11 September 2019. The appearance of these clouds is rather unusual considering the time – end of the austral winter – and the location at about 50°S, being far away from Antarctica. This paper presents the available observations and describes the overall meteorological situation that was related to the earliest sudden stratospheric warming recorded so far in the Southern Hemisphere. By using high‐resolution numerical simulations, we show evidence of mountain waves propagating up to the stratosphere that are responsible for generating the localised cold stratospheric temperature anomalies required for ice cloud formation. Snapshots of a mother‐of‐pearl cloud from the camera installed at the PERLAN 2 aircraft's tail wing. image
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Keywords: 551.5 ; Argentina ; ice cloud formation
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  • 16
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    A new approach to classification of 40 years of Antarctic sea ice concentration data (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
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    Publication Date: 2021-07-04
    Description: In this paper, we present a characterization of Antarctic sea ice based on the classification of annual sea ice concentration (SIC) data from 1979 to 2018. A clustering algorithm was applied to provide a climatological description of significant annual cycles of SIC and their spatial distribution around the Southern Ocean. Based on these classification results, we investigate the variability of SIC cycles on decadal and inter‐annual time scales. First, we discuss significant spatial shifts of SIC cycles during 1979–1998 and 1999–2018. In the Weddell Sea and in large parts of the Ross Sea, we observed higher SIC during the summer season, and an extension of sea ice cover in winter compared to the long‐term average. Second, we introduce the Climatological Sea Ice Anomaly Index (CSIAI), which is an annual measure for year‐round sea ice anomalies of the Southern Ocean and its regional sub‐sectors. By relating selected years of significant sea ice conditions (1981, 2007 and 2014) with atmospheric influences, we demonstrate that the CSIAI is very useful for assessing inter‐annular Antarctic SIC variability. Positive and negative sea ice anomalies can be qualitatively explained by atmospheric circulation anomalies in the years 1981 and 2007. However, in 2014, the year with the largest observed sea ice extent in our time series, we found that this positive sea ice anomaly was surprisingly not associated with a stationary and inter‐seasonally persistent pattern of circulation anomaly. This suggests that sub‐seasonal to seasonal circulation anomalies and ocean‐related processes favoured the formation of the sea ice maximum in 2014. With this study we provide additional information on the long‐term annual SIC variability around Antarctica. Furthermore, our classification approach and its results have potential for application in the evaluation of sea ice model results.
    Description: In this paper, we present a characterization of Antarctic sea ice based on the classification of annual sea ice concentration cycles in the period 1979 to 2018. Furthermore, we discuss spatial shifts between 1979–1998 and 1999–2018 and are able to explain significant annual sea ice anomalies by atmospheric circulation anomalies.
    Description: DLR Management Board: Young Investigator Group Leader Program. F.R. was funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Keywords: 551.31 ; passive microwave data ; sea ice climatology ; sea ice trends ; sea ice variability
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    Severe thunderstorms with large hail across Germany in June 2019 (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-04-21
    Description: From 10 to 12 June 2019, severe thunderstorms affected large parts of Germany. Hail larger than golf ball size caused considerable damage, especially in the Munich area where losses amount to EUR 1 billion. This event thus ranks among the ten most expensive hail events in Europe in the last 40 years. Atmospheric blocking in combination with a moist, unstably stratified air mass provided an excellent setting for the development of severe, hail‐producing thunderstorms across the country. image
    Description: German Research Foundation http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Keywords: 551.5 ; Germany ; thunderstorms ; hailstorm
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    Pre‐instrumental summer precipitation variability in northwestern Greece from a high‐elevation Pinus heldreichii network (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-04
    Description: The spatiotemporal variability of precipitation is of vital importance to Mediterranean ecology and economy, but pre‐instrumental changes are not well understood. Here, we present a millennial‐length June–July precipitation reconstruction derived from a network of 22 Pinus heldreichii high‐elevation sites in the Pindus Mountains of northwestern Greece. Tree‐ring width chronologies from these sites cohere exceptionally well over the past several hundred years (r1467–2015 = 0.64) revealing coherence at inter‐annual to centennial timescales across the network. The network mean calibrates significantly against instrumental June–July precipitation over the past 40 years (r1976–2015 = 0.71), even though no high‐elevation observational record is available representing the moist conditions at the treeline above 1,900 m a.s.l. For the final reconstruction, the instrumental target data are adjusted to provide realistic estimates of high‐elevation summer rainfall back to 729 CE. The reconstruction contains substantially more low‐frequency variability than other high‐resolution hydroclimate records from the eastern Mediterranean including extended dry periods from 1,350 to 1,379 CE (39 ± 4.5 mm) and 913 to 942 (40 ± 8.4 mm), and moist periods from 862 to 891 (86 ± 11 mm) and 1,522 to 1,551 (80 ± 3.5 mm), relative to the long‐term mean of 61 mm. The most recent 30‐year period from 1986 to 2015 is characterized by above average June–July precipitation (73 ± 2 mm). Low‐frequency changes in summer precipitation are likely related to variations in the position and persistence of storm tracks steering local depressions and causing extensive rainfall (or lack thereof) in high‐elevation environments of the Pindus Mountains.
    Description: Associated with a strengthening of circum‐global sub‐tropical high‐pressure belts, climate models unequivocally predict a decrease of Mediterranean precipitation, accompanied by an increase of extreme events in the upcoming decades. Long‐term desiccation will amplify evaporative demand challenging plant metabolism and foster an even greater need to irrigate Mediterranean crops. We place these recent hydroclimate dynamics into a long‐term context and explore the feasibility of reconstructing low‐frequency precipitation variability by employing a large network of high‐elevation Pinus heldreichii sites from northwestern Greece.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Keywords: 551.6 ; climate reconstruction ; Mediterranean ; Pindus Mountains ; pine ; tree‐rings ; Valia Calda
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    Grassland greening on the Mongolian Plateau despite higher grazing intensity (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-06-28
    Description: Changes in land management and climate alter vegetation dynamics, but the determinants of vegetation changes often remain elusive, especially in global drylands. Here we assess the determinants of grassland greenness on the Mongolian Plateau, one of the world's largest grassland biomes, which covers Mongolia and the province of Inner Mongolia in China. We use spatial panel regressions to quantify the impact of precipitation, temperature, radiation, and the intensity of livestock grazing on the normalized difference vegetation indices (NDVI) during the growing seasons from 1982 to 2015 at the county level. The results suggest that the Mongolian Plateau experienced vegetation greening from 1982 to 2015. Precipitation and animal density were the most influential factors contributing to higher NDVI on the grasslands of Inner Mongolia and Mongolia. Our results highlight the dominant effect of climate variability, and especially of the precipitation variability, on the grassland greenness in Mongolian drylands. The findings challenge the common belief that higher grazing pressure is the key driver for land degradation. The analysis exemplifies how representative wall‐to‐wall results for large areas can be attained from exploring space–time data and adds empirical insights to the puzzling relationship between grazing intensity and vegetation growth in dryland areas.
    Description: European Union's Framework Programme for Research and Innovation ‐ Horizon 2020 (2014‐2020)
    Description: Alexander von Humboldt Foundation of Germany
    Keywords: 333.7 ; China ; climate change ; grassland ; livestock grazing ; NDVI ; spatial panel regression ; vegetation growth
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    Contextualizing land‐use and land‐cover change with local knowledge: A case study from Pokot Central, Kenya (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-16
    Description: Rural communities in the drylands of sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) derive their livelihoods primarily from their natural resource base. Unprecedented changes in these environments over the past few decades are likely to intensify in the future and land users need to develop sustainable adaptation strategies. This study aims to identify land‐use and land‐cover (LULC) changes and their drivers in a sub‐Saharan dryland, between 1986 and 2017, by integrating local knowledge and remote sensing. Local knowledge and environmental perception are used as the basis for defining LULC classes and for training and validation of change detection. This study detects significant LULC changes in 41% of the investigated area, and identifies bush encroachment into former pastures as the dominant LULC change with an increase of woodland by 39% and a decrease of grassland by 74%. This process is perceived as severe degradation by local respondents and is linked to changing management regimes and unreliable rainfall patterns. Deforestation and woodland thinning account for 44% of the detected changes, and can be traced back to increased habitation and farming, although the local community also identifies charcoal production as a driving factor. The integration of remote sensing and local knowledge provides a holistic view on LULC change in Pokot Central, Kenya and offers a solid base for site‐specific and actor‐centred management approaches necessary for sustainable pathways of drylands. Our results emphasize the need to include local actors in the development of adaptation strategies and management guidelines for drylands.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: Heidelberg University, Graduiertenförderung
    Keywords: 631.37 ; Kenya ; LANDSAT ; land‐use and land‐cover change ; local knowledge ; Pokot Central ; remote sensing
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    Comprehensive evaluation of an improved large‐scale multi‐site weather generator for Germany (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-06-29
    Description: In this work, we present a comprehensive evaluation of a stochastic multi‐site, multi‐variate weather generator at the scale of entire Germany and parts of the neighbouring countries covering the major German river basins Elbe, Upper Danube, Rhine, Weser and Ems with a total area of approximately 580,000 km2. The regional weather generator, which is based on a first‐order multi‐variate auto‐regressive model, is setup using 53‐year long daily observational data at 528 locations. The performance is evaluated by investigating the ability of the weather generator to replicate various important statistical properties of the observed variables including precipitation occurrence and dry/wet transition probabilities, mean daily and extreme precipitation, multi‐day precipitation sums, spatial correlation structure, areal precipitation, mean daily and extreme temperature and solar radiation. We explore two marginal distributions for daily precipitation amount: mixed Gamma‐Generalized Pareto and extended Generalized Pareto. Furthermore, we introduce a new procedure to estimate the spatial correlation matrix and model mean daily temperature and solar radiation. The extensive evaluation reveals that the weather generator is greatly capable of capturing most of the crucial properties of the weather variables, particularly of extreme precipitation at individual locations. Some deficiencies are detected in capturing spatial precipitation correlation structure that leads to an overestimation of areal precipitation extremes. Further improvement of the spatial correlation structure is envisaged for future research. The mixed marginal model found to outperform the extended Generalized Pareto in our case. The use of power transformation in combination with normal distribution significantly improves the performance for non‐precipitation variables. The weather generator can be used to generate synthetic event footprints for large‐scale trans‐basin flood risk assessment.
    Description: The regional weather generator is greatly capable of capturing most of the crucial statistical properties of weather events. Hence, it can be used to generate synthetic event footprints for large‐scale trans‐basin flood risk assessment. However, due to its deficiency in capturing spatial precipitation correlation structure leading to an overestimation of areal precipitation extremes, further improvement is envisaged for future research.
    Description: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Keywords: 551.6 ; correlation ; extreme ; flood ; large‐scale ; multi‐variate ; weather generator
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    The regional MiKlip decadal prediction system for Europe: Hindcast skill for extremes and user‐oriented variables (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-03
    Description: Regional climate predictions for the next decade are gaining importance, as this period falls within the planning horizon of politics, economy, and society. The potential predictability of climate indices or extremes at the regional scale is of particular interest. The German MiKlip project (“mid‐term climate forecast”) developed the first regional decadal prediction system for Europe at 0.44° resolution, based on the regional model COSMO‐CLM using global MPI‐ESM simulations as boundary conditions. We analyse the skill of this regional system focussing on extremes and user‐oriented variables. The considered quantities are related to temperature extremes, heavy precipitation, wind impacts, and the agronomy sector. Variables related to temperature (e.g., frost days, heat wave days) show high predictive skill (anomaly correlation up to 0.9) with very little dependence on lead‐time, and the skill patterns are spatially robust. The skill patterns for precipitation‐related variables (e.g., heavy precipitation days) and wind‐based indices (like storm days) are less skilful and more heterogeneous, particularly for the latter. Quantities related to the agronomy sector (e.g., growing degree days) show high predictive skill, comparable to temperature. Overall, we provide evidence that decadal predictive skill can be generally found at the regional scale also for extremes and user‐oriented variables, demonstrating how the utility of decadal predictions can be substantially enhanced. This is a very promising first step towards impact‐related modelling at the regional scale and the development of individual user‐oriented products for stakeholders.
    Description: The skill of the regional MiKlip decadal prediction system is analysed focussing on extremes and user‐oriented variables. Variables related to temperature extremes and the agronomy sector show high predictive skill with very little dependence on lead‐time. Skill patterns for precipitation‐related variables and wind‐based indices are less skilful and more heterogeneous, especially for the latter.
    Description: The study was mainly funded by the Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF) under project FONA MiKlip‐II http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Description: AXA Research Fund http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001961
    Keywords: 551.6 ; climate services ; Europe ; extremes ; MiKlip ; regional decadal predictions ; user needs
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    Assessing land use and flood management impacts on ecosystem services in a river landscape (Upper Danube, Germany) (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-06-28
    Description: Rivers and floodplains provide many regulating, provisioning and cultural ecosystem services (ES) such as flood risk regulation, crop production or recreation. Intensive use of resources such as hydropower production, construction of detention basins and intensive agriculture substantially change ecosystems and may affect their capacity to provide ES. Legal frameworks such as the European Water Framework Directive, Bird and Habitats Directive and Floods Directive already address various uses and interests. However, management is still sectoral and often potential synergies or trade‐offs between sectors are not considered. The ES concept could support a joint and holistic evaluation of impacts and proactively suggest advantageous options. The river ecosystem service index (RESI) method evaluates the capacity of floodplains to provide ES by using a standardized five‐point scale for 1 km‐floodplain segments based on available spatial data. This scaling allows consistent scoring of all ES and their integration into a single index. The aim of this article is to assess ES impacts of different flood prevention scenarios on a 75 km section of the Danube river corridor in Germany. The RESI method was applied to evaluate scenario effects on 13 ES with the standardized five‐point scale. Synergies and trade‐offs were identified as well as ES bundles and dependencies on land use and connectivity. The ratio of actual and former floodplain has the strongest influence on the total ES provision: the higher the percentage and area of an active floodplain, the higher the sum of ES. The RESI method proved useful to support decision‐making in regional planning.
    Description: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Keywords: 333.91 ; assessment ; cultural ; floodplains ; index ; inter‐sectoral management ; regulating and provisioning ecosystem services ; stakeholders
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    Nonstationarity of the link between the Tropics and the summer East Atlantic pattern (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-03
    Description: A 700‐year pre‐industrial control run with the MPI‐ESM‐LR model is used to investigate the link between the summer East Atlantic (SEA) pattern and the Pacific‐Caribbean rainfall dipole (PCD), a link that has previously been shown using ERA‐Interim reanalysis data. In the model, it is found that the link between the SEA and PCD is present in some multidecadal epochs but not in others. A simple statistical model reproduces this behaviour. In the statistical model, the SEA is represented by a white noise process plus a weak influence from the PCD based on the full 700 years of the model run. The statistical model is relevant to other extratropical modes of variability, for example, the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), that are weakly influenced by the Tropics. It follows that the link between the Tropics and the winter NAO is likely to undergo modulation on multidecadal time scales, as found in some previous studies. The results suggest that any predictability of the SEA, and by implication the NAO, based on tropical rainfall may not be robust and may, in fact, be modulated on multidecadal time scales, with implications for seasonal and decadal prediction systems.
    Description: The positive phase of the SEA is associated with warm summers in Europe. The figure shows the running correlation in 51 year windows between the SEA index and the corresponding tropical rainfall index in a long pre‐industrial model run. The link between tropical rainfall and the SEA exists only in some decadal epochs, shown by the green shading, implying that predictability of the SEA based on tropical rainfall can be expected to vary on multidecadal time scales.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; nonstationarity ; seasonal prediction ; summer East Atlantic pattern
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    Convective rain cell characteristics and scaling in climate projections for Germany (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-03
    Description: Extreme convective precipitation is expected to increase with global warming. However, the rate of increase and the understanding of contributing processes remain highly uncertain. We investigated characteristics of convective rain cells like area, intensity, and lifetime as simulated by a convection‐permitting climate model in the area of Germany under historical (1976–2005) and future (end‐of‐century, RCP8.5 scenario) conditions. To this end, a tracking algorithm was applied to 5‐min precipitation output. While the number of convective cells is virtually similar under historical and future conditions, there are more intense and larger cells in the future. This yields an increase in hourly precipitation extremes, although mean precipitation decreases. The relative change in the frequency distributions of area, intensity, and precipitation sum per cell is highest for the most extreme percentiles, suggesting that extreme events intensify the most. Furthermore, we investigated the temperature and moisture scaling of cell characteristics. The temperature scaling drops off at high temperatures, with a shift in drop‐off towards higher temperatures in the future, allowing for higher peak values. In contrast, dew point temperature scaling shows consistent rates across the whole dew point range. Cell characteristics scale at varying rates, either below (mean intensity), at about (maximum intensity and area), or above (precipitation sum) the Clausius–Clapeyron rate. Thus, the widely investigated extreme precipitation scaling at fixed locations is a complex product of the scaling of different cell characteristics. The dew point scaling rates and absolute values of the scaling curves in historical and future conditions are closest for the highest percentiles. Therefore, near‐surface humidity provides a good predictor for the upper limit of for example, maximum intensity and total precipitation of individual convective cells. However, the frequency distribution of the number of cells depending on dew point temperature changes in the future, preventing statistical inference of extreme precipitation from near‐surface humidity.
    Description: We investigated characteristics of convective rain cells under historical and future conditions in convection‐permitting climate simulations using a tracking algorithm. There are more intense and larger cells in the future yielding an increase in hourly precipitation extremes. The temperature scaling curves of cell characteristics shift towards higher peak values at higher temperatures in the future. In contrast, cell characteristics scale consistently with dew point temperature. Therefore, near‐surface humidity provides a good predictor for the upper limit of for example, maximum intensity, and total precipitation of convective cells.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; Clausius–Clapeyron scaling ; convection‐permitting simulation ; convective storms ; COSMO‐CLM ; precipitation ; tracking
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    Habitat availability determines food chain length and interaction strength in food webs of a large lowland river (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
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    Publication Date: 2022-04-07
    Description: Many large rivers used for navigation have lost their hydromorphological heterogeneity, which has led to the widespread loss of native biodiversity and the concurrent establishment of non‐native communities. While the effects on biodiversity are well‐described, we know little about how the loss of natural habitats and the restructuring of communities cumulate into effects on riverine food webs. We constructed binary and ingestion webs for benthic macroinvertebrates and their resources in the Elbe River (Germany) and compared if food chain length, food web complexity, robustness, ingestion rates, and consumer‐resource interaction strength differ among three shoreline engineering practices. Food webs at profoundly altered shorelines were significantly less complex and had significantly shorter food chains than the food web at the semi‐natural shoreline. However, food web robustness to a simulated loss of species was comparable at all shorelines. Total ingestion rates were up to eight times lower at highly altered shorelines due to significantly lower ingestion rates by native species. Predator–prey interaction strength was comparable among shorelines due to higher shares of non‐native predators, indicating that non‐native predators can be functionally equivalent to native predators. We attributed the observed food web differences to the absence of complex habitats at profoundly altered shorelines and the accompanied absence of specialized consumers. Our study provides empirical evidence that hydromorphological modifications reduce the efficiency of food webs to control organic matter dynamics and may ultimately affect the provisioning of riverine ecosystem services.
    Keywords: ddc:339.95 ; ddc:551.483
    Language: English
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    Adoption of multiple sustainable land management practices among irrigator rural farm households of Ethiopia (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-04-01
    Description: Using a household and plot‐level survey conducted in Ethiopia, this study analyses the difference in farmers' adoption of sustainable land management (SLM) practices between their rainfed and irrigated plots. The paper also investigates the varying influence of different types of irrigation water management systems and associated irrigation technologies on the adoption of SLM practices in irrigated plots. After controlling for heterogeneity among different irrigation water management systems and technologies, we found that access to irrigation play major role in enhancing farmers' motivation to adopt more SLM practices. Furthermore, the combined effect of irrigation water management system and irrigation technology on type and number of SLM practices adopted is quite varied and very significant. The evidence highlights that farmers adopt more SLM practices in their plots with pump irrigation compared with those plots where gravity irrigation is applied because pump irrigation systems enhance complementarities with SLM practices. Finally, the findings underscore that the type of irrigation water management and the irrigation technology applied play an important role in restoring degraded lands and maintaining soil fertility, even when farmers' adoption of irrigation was not explicitly triggered by concerns for soil health.
    Description: Center for Development Research (ZEF), University of Bonn
    Description: CGIAR Research Program on Water, Land, and Ecosystems
    Description: Deutscher Akademischer Austauschdienst (DAAD) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001655
    Description: Dr. Hermann Eiselen Doctoral Program of the Foundation Fiat
    Description: Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) of Germany, The Water‐Energy‐Food Nexus: Global, Basin and Local Case Studies of Resource Use Efficiency Under Growing Natural Resource Scarcity
    Keywords: ddc:631
    Language: English
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    The HydroEcoSedimentary tool: An integrated approach to characterise interstitial hydro‐sedimentary and associated ecological processes (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-04-01
    Description: Increased deposition of fine sediments in rivers and streams affects a range of key ecosystem processes across the sediment–water interface, and it is a critical aspect of river habitat degradation and restoration. Understanding the mechanisms leading to fine sediment accumulation along and across streambeds and their effect on ecological processes is essential for comprehending human impacts on river ecosystems and informing river restoration. Here, we introduce the HydroEcoSedimentary tool (HEST) as an integrated approach to assess hydro‐sedimentary and ecologically relevant processes together. The HEST integrates the estimation of sedimentary processes in the interstitial zone, as well as hydraulic, geochemical and ecological assessments, with a focus on brown trout early life stages. Compared to other methods, the HEST expands the possibilities to monitor and quantify fine sediment deposition in streambeds by differentiating between vertical, lateral and longitudinal infiltration pathways, and distinguishing between the depth (upper vs. lower layers) at which interstitial processes occur within the sediment column. By testing the method in two rivers with different degrees of morphological degradation, we detail the possible measurements and uses of the HEST, demonstrate its feasibility and discuss its reliability.
    Description: Alexander von Humboldt‐Stiftung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100005156
    Description: Bavarian State Ministry of Science and Arts (Bayerisches Staatsministerium für Wissenschaft und Kunst)
    Keywords: ddc:551.48 ; ddc:550.724
    Language: English
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    The effect of stream shading on the inflow characteristics in a downstream reservoir (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-04-01
    Description: In thermally stratified reservoirs, inflows form density currents according to the interplay between inflow temperature and reservoir stratification. The temperature of inflowing water is affected by catchment properties, including shading by riparian vegetation. We hypothesize that the degree of shading in the catchment can affect the inflow dynamics in downstream reservoirs by changing inflow temperature and consequently the nature of the density current. We test it for a subtropical drinking water reservoir by combining catchment‐scale hydrological and stream temperature modeling with observations of reservoir stratification. We analyze the formation of density currents, defined as under, inter and overflow, for scenarios with contrasting shading conditions in the catchment. Inflow temperatures were simulated with the distributed water‐balance model LARSIM‐WT, which integrates heat‐balance and water temperature. River temperature measurements and simulations are in good agreement with a RMSE of 0.58°C. In simulations using the present state of shading, underflows are the most frequent flow path, 63% of the annual period. During the remaining time, river intrusion form interflows. In a scenario without stream shading, average inflow temperature increased by 2.2°C. Thus, interflows were the most frequent flow path (51%), followed by underflows (34%) and overflows (15%). With this change, we would expect a degradation of reservoir water quality, as overflows promote longer periods of anoxia and nutrient loads would be delivered to the photic zone, a potential trigger for algae blooms. This study revealed a potentially important, yet unexplored aspect of catchment management for controlling reservoir water quality.
    Description: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4746288
    Keywords: ddc:628.1 ; ddc:551.48
    Language: English
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    Impact of a large artificial lake on regional climate: A typical meteorological year Meso‐NH simulation results (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-04-01
    Description: Large artificial lakes and reservoirs affect the meteorological regime of the shore area and the local climate takes on a number of new features that were previously absent. This work focuses on the weather impact of the Alqueva reservoir, the largest artificial lake in Western Europe. An extensive set of numerical simulations using Meso‐NH mesoscale atmospheric model coupled with FLake (Freshwater Lake) scheme was carried out. The simulations covered a 12‐month period that was chosen to compose a so‐called Typical Meteorological Year. This artificial time period is meant to represent the typical meteorological conditions in the region and the model results are used to assess the changes in the local climate. To evaluate the raw impact of the reservoir, two different scenarios of simulations were compared: (A) with the reservoir as it exists nowadays and (B) without the reservoir using the older surface dataset. The results show decrease of air temperature during daytime (10–9°C) and nighttime increase (up to 10°C). In nearest towns, daily maximum temperature decreased and daily minimum temperature increased, which refers to milder weather conditions. Alqueva mainly showed suppression in fog formation in the nearby area. Local breeze regime was studied and monthly lake/land breezes were described.
    Description: Large lakes and artificial reservoirs can affect the meteorological regime of their coastal areas and impact the local climate. This work focuses on the weather impact of the Alqueva reservoir, the largest artificial lake in Western Europe, studied on the basis of mesoscale atmospheric modelling data over the 12‐month period composed in a typical meteorological year for the region of interest.
    Description: ALOP project
    Description: COMPETE 2020 ICT project
    Description: Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
    Description: TOMAQAPA
    Description: http://mesonh.aero.obs-mip.fr/mesonh54/Download
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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    Targeted covariance inflation for 3D‐volume radar reflectivity assimilation with the LETKF (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-31
    Description: The local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) suggested by Hunt et al., 2007 is a very popular method for ensemble data assimilation. It is the operational method for convective‐scale data assimilation at Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD). At DWD, based on the LETKF, three‐dimensional volume radar observations are assimilated operationally for the operational ICON‐D2. However, one major challenge for the LETKF is the situation where observations show precipitation (reflectivity) whereas all ensemble members do not show such reflectivity at a given point in space. In this case, there is no sensitivity of the LETKF with respect to the observations, and the analysis increment based on the observed reflectivity is zero. The goal of this work is to develop a targeted covariance inflation (TCI) for the assimilation of 3D‐volume radar data based on the LETKF, adding artificial sensitivity and making the LETKF react properly to the radar observations. The basic idea of the TCI is to employ an additive covariance inflation as entrance point for the LETKF. Here, we construct perturbations to the simulated observation which are used by the core LETKF assimilation step. The perturbations are constructed such that they exhibit a correlation between humidity and reflectivity. This leads to a change in humidity in such a way that precipitation is more likely to occur. We describe and demonstrate the theoretical basis of the method. We then present a case study where targeted covariance inflation leads to a clear improvement of the LETKF and precipitation forecast. All examples are based on the German radar network and the ICON‐D2 model over Central Europe.
    Description: The goal of this work is to develop a targeted covariance inflation (TCI) for the assimilation of 3D‐volume radar data based on the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF), adding artificial sensitivity and making the LETKF react properly to the radar observations. Perturbations to the simulated observations are constructed such that they exhibit an empirically derived correlation between humidity and reflectivity. This leads to a change in humidity in such a way that precipitation is more likely to occur.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Keywords: ddc:551.5
    Language: English
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    Multi‐objective downscaling of precipitation time series by genetic programming (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-28
    Description: We use symbolic regression to estimate daily precipitation amounts at six stations in the Alpine region from a global reanalysis. Symbolic regression only prescribes the set of mathematical expressions allowed in the regression model, but not its structure. The regression models are generated by genetic programming (GP) in analogy to biological evolution. The two conflicting objectives of a low root‐mean‐square error (RMSE) and consistency in the distribution between model and observations are treated as a multi‐objective optimization problem. This allows us to derive a set of downscaling models that represents different achievable trade‐offs between the two conflicting objectives, a so‐called Pareto set. Our GP setup limits the size of the regression models and uses an analytical quotient instead of a standard or protected division operator. With this setup we obtain models that have a generalization performance comparable with generalized linear regression models (GLMs), which are used as a benchmark. We generate deterministic and stochastic downscaling models with GP. The deterministic downscaling models with low RMSE outperform the respective stochastic models. The stochastic models with low IQD, however, perform slightly better than the respective deterministic models for the majority of cases. No approach is uniquely superior. The stochastic models with optimal IQD provide useful distribution estimates that capture the stochastic uncertainty similar to or slightly better than the GLM‐based downscaling.
    Description: We have fitted deterministic and stochastic empirical‐statistical downscaling models that represent different possible compromises between two conflicting objectives: (a) a low RMSE and (b) consistency in the distribution between downscaled series and reference observations. The graphic shows the skill of our downscaling models w.r.t. the two objectives (larger is better) for the station Sonnblick.
    Description: CRC/TR32: Patterns in Soil‐Vegetation‐Atmosphere Systems: Monitoring, Modelling and Data Assimilation; funded by the German Research Foundation (Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft DFG) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Keywords: ddc:551.577 ; ddc:550.2
    Language: English
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    Tillage erosion as an important driver of in‐field biomass patterns in an intensively used hummocky landscape (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-10-06
    Description: Tillage erosion causes substantial soil redistribution that can exceed water erosion especially in hummocky landscapes under highly mechanized large field agriculture. Consequently, truncated soil profiles can be found on hill shoulders and top slopes, whereas colluvial material is accumulated at footslopes, in depressions, and along downslope field borders. We tested the hypothesis that soil erosion substantially affects in‐field patterns of the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) of different crop types on landscape scale. The interrelation between the EVI (RAPIDEYE satellite data; 5 m spatial resolution) as a proxy for crop biomass and modeled total soil erosion (tillage and water erosion modeled using SPEROS‐C) was analyzed for the Quillow catchment (size: 196 km2) in Northeast Germany in a wet versus normal year for four crop types (winter wheat, maize, winter rapeseed, winter barley). Our findings clearly indicate that eroded areas had the lowest EVI values, while the highest EVI values were found in depositional areas. The differences in the EVI between erosional and depositional sites are more pronounced in the analyzed normal year. The net effect of total erosion on the EVI compared to areas without pronounced erosion or deposition ranged from −10.2% for maize in the normal year to +3.7% for winter barley in the wet year. Tillage erosion has been identified as an important driver of soil degradation affecting in‐field crop biomass patterns in a hummocky ground moraine landscape. While soil erosion estimates are to be made, more attention should be given toward tillage erosion.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Keywords: 631.4 ; agroscapelab Quillow ; crop biomass patterns ; EVI ; remote sensing ; tillage erosion
    Type: map
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    Sensitivity to changes in the surface‐layer turbulence parameterization for stable conditions in winter: A case study with a regional climate model over the Arctic (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-23
    Description: The modeling of the atmospheric boundary layer over sea ice is still challenging because of the complex interaction between clouds, radiation and turbulence over the often inhomogeneous sea ice cover. There is still much uncertainty concerning sea ice roughness, near‐surface thermal stability and related processes, and their accurate parameterization. Here, a regional Arctic climate model forced by ERA‐Interim data was used to test the sensitivity of climate simulations to a modified surface flux parameterization for wintertime conditions over the Arctic. The reference parameterization as well as the modified one is based on Monin–Obukhov similarity theory, but different roughness lengths were prescribed and the stability dependence of the transfer coefficients for momentum, heat and moisture differed from each other. The modified parameterization accounts for the most comprehensive observations that are presently available over sea ice in the inner Arctic. Independent of the parameterization used, the model was able to reproduce the two observed dominant winter states with respect to cloud cover and longwave radiation. A stepwise use of the different parameterization assumptions showed that modifications of both surface roughness and stability dependence had a considerable impact on quantities such as air pressure, wind and near‐surface turbulent fluxes. However, the reduction of surface roughness to values agreeing with those observed during the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean campaign led to an improvement in the western Arctic, while the modified stability parameterization had only a minor impact. The latter could be traced back to the model's underestimation of the strength of stability over sea ice. Future work should concentrate on possible reasons for this underestimation and on the question of generality of the results for other climate models.
    Description: The modeling of the atmospheric boundary layer over sea ice is challenging. This is, among others, due to the distinct sea ice surface roughness and pressure ridges as shown in the image, and the often stably stratified atmosphere. We quantified the impact of used parameterizations and show that both surface roughness and stability dependence have a considerable impact on near‐surface turbulent fluxes and atmospheric circulation in Arctic climate simulations.
    Description: German Research Foundation (DFG)
    Description: Helmholtz Association (HGF), POLEX http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100003872
    Description: Russian Science Foundation (RSF) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100006769
    Keywords: ddc:551.5
    Language: English
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    Variability of the precipitation over the Tianshan Mountains, Central Asia. Part I: Linear and nonlinear trends of the annual and seasonal precipitation (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-29
    Description: The Tianshan Mountains, with their status as ‘water tower’, receive quantities of precipitation that are among the highest in Central Asia. There are considerable knowledge gaps regarding the understanding of spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation over this water‐scarce region. Based on the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) data set, this study evaluated the precipitation variations over Tianshan Mountains on different time scales by using Mann‐Kendall (M‐K) test approaches and the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method. The results show that (a) most parts of Tianshan experienced increasing annual precipitation during 1950–2016 while Western Tianshan, which is the wettest region, faced a downtrend of precipitation during the same 67 years; (b) the annual precipitation in the Tianshan Mountains has exhibited high‐frequency variations with 3‐ and 6‐year quasi‐periods and low‐frequency variations with 12‐, 27‐year quasi‐periods. On the decadal scale, Tianshan had two dry periods (1950–1962 and 1973–1984) and two wet periods (1962–1972 and 1985–2016) and has experienced a tendency of continuous humidification since 2004; (c) the precipitation over the Tianshan Mountains shows a strong seasonality. In total, 63.6% of all precipitation falls in spring and summer. Distinctive differences are found in seasonal precipitation variations among the sub‐Tianshan regions. Obvious upward trends of precipitation over Eastern Tianshan were found in all seasons, with Eastern Tianshan entering a humid period as early as 1986. Northern and Central Tianshan experienced a decreasing trend in summer and spring. However, in the other seasons, those two sub‐Tianshan regions have been in humid periods since the 1990s. The precipitation over Western Tianshan showed an upward trend in summer and autumn. The obvious downward trends in spring and winter have led to dry periods in these two seasons from 1997–2014 to 2008–2016, respectively.
    Description: Most parts of Tianshan experienced increasing annual precipitation during 1950–2016 while Western Tianshan, which is the wettest region, faced a downtrend of precipitation during the same 67 years. Distinctive differences are found in seasonal precipitation variations among the sub‐Tianshan regions.
    Description: Humboldt‐Universität zu Berlin National Natural Science Foundation of China
    Description: China Scholarship Council (CSC)
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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    Synoptic circulation changes over Central Europe from 1900 to 2100: Reanalyses and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-09-27
    Description: While the evidence for anthropogenic climate change continues to strengthen, and concerns about severe weather events are increasing, global projections of regional climate change are still uncertain due to model‐dependent changes in large‐scale atmospheric circulation, including over North Atlantic and Europe. Here, the Jenkinson–Collison classification of daily circulation patterns is used to evaluate past and future changes in their seasonal frequencies over Central Europe for the 1900–2100 period. Three reanalyses and eight global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6, were used based on daily mean sea‐level pressure data. Best agreement in deriving relative frequencies of the synoptic types was found between the reanalyses. Global models can generally capture the interannual variability of circulation patterns and their climatological state, especially for the less frequent synoptic types. Based on historical data and the shared socioeconomic pathway 5 scenario, the evaluated trends show more robust signals during summer, given their lesser internal variability. Increasing frequencies were found for circulation types characterized by weak pressure gradients, mainly at the expense of decreasing frequencies of westerlies. Our findings indicate that given a high‐emission scenario, these signals will likely emerge from past climate variability towards the mid‐21st century for most altered circulation patterns.
    Description: Daily synoptic circulation patterns are derived using the Jenkinson–Collinson automated classification over Central Europe to evaluate past and future changes in their temporal frequencies. Reanalyses and eight global climate models from the CMIP6 were used based on the historical experiment and a high‐emission scenario. More robust signals were found during the summer season leading to emerging changes towards the mid‐21st century.
    Description: H2020 Marie Skłodowska‐Curie Actions http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100010665
    Description: EU International Training Network (ITN) Climate Advanced Forecasting of sub‐seasonal Extremes (CAFE)
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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    Recent evidence for warmer and drier growing seasons in climate sensitive regions of Central America from multiple global datasets (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-07-26
    Description: Smallholder livelihoods throughout Central America are built on rain‐fed agriculture and depend on seasonal variations in temperature and precipitation. Recent climatic shifts in this highly diverse region are not well understood due to sparse observations, and as the skill of global climate products have not been thoroughly evaluated. We examine the performance for several reanalysis and satellite‐based global climate data products (CHIRPS/CHIRTS, ERA5, MERRA‐2, PERSIANN‐CDR) as compared to the observation‐based GPCC precipitation dataset. These datasets are then used to evaluate the magnitude and spatial extent of hydroclimatic shifts and changes in aridity and drought over the last four decades. We focus on water‐limited regions that are important for rain‐fed agriculture and particularly vulnerable to further drying, and newly delineate those regions for Central America and Mexico by adapting prior definitions of the Central American Dry Corridor. Our results indicate that the CHIRPS dataset exhibits the greatest skill for the study area. A general warming of 0.2–0.8°C·decade−1 was found across the region, particularly for spring and winter, while widespread drying was indicated by several measures for the summer growing season. Changes in annual precipitation have been inconsistent, but show declines of 20–25% in eastern Honduras/Nicaragua and in several parts of Mexico. Some regions most vulnerable to drying have been subject to statistically significant trends towards summer drying, increases in drought and aridity driven by precipitation declines, and/or a lengthening of the winter dry season, highlighting areas where climate adaptation measures may be most urgent.
    Description: Over the past four decades, precipitation trends are the main driver of drought trends, with temperature trends playing a small role. The most widespread drying and increases in aridity have occurred during the summer growing season. Based on delimitations of water‐limited and climate‐sensitive regions (brown shading) that are important for rain‐fed agriculture, some of these highly vulnerable regions overlap with areas of significant drying (red), highlighting potential prioritization areas for climate adaptation measures. image
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: Frias Institute of Advanced Studies (FRIAS) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100003190
    Description: National Science Foundation http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000001
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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    THE INTCAL20 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE RADIOCARBON AGE CALIBRATION CURVE (0–55 CAL kBP) (2020)
    Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona | Cambridge University Press
    In:  Radiocarbon, 62 (4). pp. 725-757.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-01-08
    Description: Radiocarbon (14C) ages cannot provide absolutely dated chronologies for archaeological or paleoenvironmental studies directly but must be converted to calendar age equivalents using a calibration curve compensating for fluctuations in atmospheric 14C concentration. Although calibration curves are constructed from independently dated archives, they invariably require revision as new data become available and our understanding of the Earth system improves. In this volume the international 14C calibration curves for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, as well as for the ocean surface layer, have been updated to include a wealth of new data and extended to 55,000 cal BP. Based on tree rings, IntCal20 now extends as a fully atmospheric record to ca. 13,900 cal BP. For the older part of the timescale, IntCal20 comprises statistically integrated evidence from floating tree-ring chronologies, lacustrine and marine sediments, speleothems, and corals. We utilized improved evaluation of the timescales and location variable 14C offsets from the atmosphere (reservoir age, dead carbon fraction) for each dataset. New statistical methods have refined the structure of the calibration curves while maintaining a robust treatment of uncertainties in the 14C ages, the calendar ages and other corrections. The inclusion of modeled marine reservoir ages derived from a three-dimensional ocean circulation model has allowed us to apply more appropriate reservoir corrections to the marine 14C data rather than the previous use of constant regional offsets from the atmosphere. Here we provide an overview of the new and revised datasets and the associated methods used for the construction of the IntCal20 curve and explore potential regional offsets for tree-ring data. We discuss the main differences with respect to the previous calibration curve, IntCal13, and some of the implications for archaeology and geosciences ranging from the recent past to the time of the extinction of the Neanderthals.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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    Marine20—The Marine Radiocarbon Age Calibration Curve (0–55,000 cal BP) (2020)
    Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona | Cambridge University Press
    In:  Radiocarbon, 62 (4). pp. 779-820.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-01-08
    Description: The concentration of radiocarbon (14C) differs between ocean and atmosphere. Radiocarbon determinations from samples which obtained their 14C in the marine environment therefore need a marine-specific calibration curve and cannot be calibrated directly against the atmospheric-based IntCal20 curve. This paper presents Marine20, an update to the internationally agreed marine radiocarbon age calibration curve that provides a non-polar global-average marine record of radiocarbon from 0–55 cal kBP and serves as a baseline for regional oceanic variation. Marine20 is intended for calibration of marine radiocarbon samples from non-polar regions; it is not suitable for calibration in polar regions where variability in sea ice extent, ocean upwelling and air-sea gas exchange may have caused larger changes to concentrations of marine radiocarbon. The Marine20 curve is based upon 500 simulations with an ocean/atmosphere/biosphere box-model of the global carbon cycle that has been forced by posterior realizations of our Northern Hemispheric atmospheric IntCal20 14C curve and reconstructed changes in CO2 obtained from ice core data. These forcings enable us to incorporate carbon cycle dynamics and temporal changes in the atmospheric 14C level. The box-model simulations of the global-average marine radiocarbon reservoir age are similar to those of a more complex three-dimensional ocean general circulation model. However, simplicity and speed of the box model allow us to use a Monte Carlo approach to rigorously propagate the uncertainty in both the historic concentration of atmospheric 14C and other key parameters of the carbon cycle through to our final Marine20 calibration curve. This robust propagation of uncertainty is fundamental to providing reliable precision for the radiocarbon age calibration of marine based samples. We make a first step towards deconvolving the contributions of different processes to the total uncertainty; discuss the main differences of Marine20 from the previous age calibration curve Marine13; and identify the limitations of our approach together with key areas for further work. The updated values for ΔR, the regional marine radiocarbon reservoir age corrections required to calibrate against Marine20, can be found at the data base http://calib.org/marine/.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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