ALBERT

Description: The Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) is the next generation space-borne microwave sounder. It is the latest and most advanced version of a series of satellite-based microwave sounders, currently under development by NASA for the future U.S. operational polar-orbiting weather satellite system, called the NPOESS (National Polar-orbiting Operational Environment Satellite System), slated to begin orbiting around the end of this decade. This paper will present a brief history of the evolution of the space-borne microwave sounders, from its early-day scientific experiments, through the operational sounder aboard today's polar orbiting weather satellites, and ending in the ATMS development. It will also describe the evolution of microwave radiometer technology that enabled the space-borne microwave radiometry, from its early versions with simple, nadir-viewing, fixed-horn antennas to the present-day scanning reflector antennas with broad-band MMIC Low Noise Amplifiers, plus on-board calibrations.

Description: An interferometer-type passive microwave radiometer based on MMIC receiver technology and a thinned array antenna design is being developed under the Instrument Incubator Program (TIP) on a project entitled the Lightweight Rainfall Radiometer (LRR). The prototype single channel aircraft instrument will be ready for first testing in 2nd quarter 2003, for deployment on the NASA DC-8 aircraft and in a ground configuration manner; this version measures at 10.7 GHz in a crosstrack imaging mode. The design for a two (2) frequency preliminary space flight model at 19 and 35 GHz (also in crosstrack imaging mode) has also been completed, in which the design features would enable it to fly in a bore-sighted configuration with a new dual-frequency space radar (DPR) under development at the Communications Research Laboratory (CRL) in Tokyo, Japan. The DPR will be flown as one of two primary instruments on the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission's core satellite in the 2007 time frame. The dual frequency space flight design of the ERR matches the APR frequencies and will be proposed as an ancillary instrument on the GPM core satellite to advance space-based precipitation measurement by enabling better microphysical characterization and coincident volume data gathering for exercising combined algorithm techniques which make use of both radar backscatter and radiometer attenuation information to constrain rainrate solutions within a physical algorithm context. This talk will discuss the design features, performance capabilities, applications plans, and conical/polarametric imaging possibilities for the LRR, as well as a brief summary of the project status and schedule.

Description: Global precipitation analysis covering the last few decades and the impact of the new TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) observations are reviewed in the context of weather and climate applications. All the data sets discussed are the result of mergers of information from multiple satellites and gauges, where available. The focus of the talk is on TRMM-based 3 hr. analyses that use TRMM to calibrate polar-orbit microwave observations from SSM/I (and other satellites) and geosynchronous IR observations and merges the various calibrated observations into a final, 3 hr. resolution map. This TRMM standard product will be available for the entire TRMM period (January 1998-present) at the end of 2002. A real-time version of this merged product is being produced and is available at 0.25 deg latitude-longitude resolution over the latitude range from 50 deg N-50 deg S. Examples will be shown, including its use in monitoring flood conditions and in relating weather-scale patterns to climate-scale patterns. The 3-hourly analysis is placed in the context of two research products of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). The first is the 23 year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis that is used to explore global and regional variations and trends and is compared to the much shorter TRMM tropical data set. The GPCP data set shows no significant global trend in precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. Regional trends are also analyzed. A trend pattern that is a combination of both El Nino and La Nina precipitation features is evident in the Goodyear data set. This pattern is related to an increase with time in the number of combined months of El Nino and La Nina during the 23 year period. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENSO variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. Also shown is the GPCP daily, 1 deg latitude-longitude analysis, which is available from January 1997 to the present. Plans to incorporate the TRMM data and 3-hourly analysis into the GPCP products are outlined. The outcome should be an improved global analysis and climatology on monthly scales for the 23 year period and finer time scale analyses for more recent periods, including real-time 3-hourly (or finer) analyses over much of the globe.

Description: A simulation of Hurricane Bonnie (1998) has been performed using multiple grid nesting to 2 km grid spacing. The simulation is initialized with large-scale analysis fields from the European Center for Medium Range Forecasts and with a bogus vortex inserted via four-dimensional variational data assimilation. The simulation, verified against radar observations from TRMM and aircraft observations from the NASA CAMEX-3 field experiment, reproduces well the storm intensity, the wavenumber 1 asymmetry of the precipitation field, the occurrence of deep convective towers within the eyewall, and the presence of broad stratiform precipitation regions. This study will explore the evolution of air parcels in these convective towers, from their beginnings in the boundary layer to their movement in upper level outflow. The role of these towers in storm intensification may also be examined.

Description: This study compares path-integrated attenuation (PIA), in precipitation over the ocean, derived from a single-frequency X-band radar, using the surface reference technique (SRT), with that deduced from a radiometer also operating at X band. The data were collected during TRMM field campaigns. The PIA derived from radar using the SRT does not involve any assumptions regarding the precipitation but it assumes that the cross-section of the surface is stable, that is, it is not significantly altered by factors such as surface roughness. The PIA deduced from the radiometer, however, involves assumptions regarding the temperature and emissivity of the surface and absorption and scattering by the intervening precipitation, which in turn depend upon the size, concentration and composition of the precipitation particles. The comparison of the PIA from the two instruments serves not only as a check between the radar and the radiometer but also may yield insights into the structure of the intervening precipitation. Such study can provide valuable information for TRMM in which both radar and radiometers are used for rain measurements. The radiometer PIA was first deduced from the brightness temperature using a simple one-layer radiative transfer model assuming no scattering, an isothermal atmosphere. The initial results show a general agreement between the PIAs deduced from the two instruments. Largo disagreement was found at high values of PIAs that may have been caused saturation of the X-band brightness temperature or by uncertainties in wind roughening of the sea surface that affects the SRT. Further results including the effects of scattering and a non-isothermal atmosphere will be shown at the conference.

Description: A characteristic feature of rainfall statistics is that they in general depend on the space and time scales over which rain data are averaged. As a part of an earlier effort to determine the sampling error of satellite rain averages, a space-time model of rainfall statistics was developed to describe the statistics of gridded rain observed in GATE. The model allows one to compute the second moment statistics of space- and time-averaged rain rate which can be fitted to satellite or rain gauge data to determine the four model parameters appearing in the precipitation spectrum - an overall strength parameter, a characteristic length separating the long and short wavelength regimes and a characteristic relaxation time for decay of the autocorrelation of the instantaneous local rain rate and a certain 'fractal' power law exponent. For area-averaged instantaneous rain rate, this exponent governs the power law dependence of these statistics on the averaging length scale $L$ predicted by the model in the limit of small $L$. In particular, the variance of rain rate averaged over an $L \times L$ area exhibits a power law singularity as $L \rightarrow 0$. In the present work the model is used to investigate how the statistics of area-averaged rain rate over the tropical Western Pacific measured with ship borne radar during TOGA COARE (Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean Atmospheric Response Experiment) and gridded on a 2 km grid depends on the size of the spatial averaging scale. Good agreement is found between the data and predictions from the model over a wide range of averaging length scales.

Description: Cloud-resolving models (CRMs) are being increasingly used to develop parametric treatments of clouds and related processes for use in global climate models (GCMs). CRMs represent the integrated knowledge of the physical processes acting to determine cloud system lifecycle and are well matched to typical observational data in terms of physical parameters/measurables and scale-resolved physical processes. Thus, they are suitable for direct comparison to field observations for model validation and improvement. The goal of this project is to improve state-of-the-art CRMs used for studies of cirrus clouds and to establish a relative calibration with GCMs through comparisons among CRMs, single column model (SCM) versions of the GCMs, and observations. The objective is to compare and evaluate a variety of CRMs and SCMs, under the auspices of the GEWEX Cloud Systems Study (GCSS) Working Group on Cirrus Cloud Systems (WG2), using ARM data acquired at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. This poster will report on progress in developing a suitable WG2 case study data set based on the September 26, 1996 ARM IOP case - the Hurricane Nora outflow case. Progress is assessing cloud and other environmental conditions will be described. Results of preliminary simulations using a regional cloud system model (MM5) and a CRM will be discussed. Focal science questions for the model comparison are strongly based on results of the idealized GCSS WG2 cirrus cloud model comparison projects (Idealized Cirrus Cloud Model Comparison Project and Cirrus Parcel Model Comparison Project), which will also be briefly summarized.

Description: A proposed methodology for the in-flight calibration of a Synthetic Thinned Aperture Radiometer (STAR) airborne sensor with the potential application to a space flight version. The application of the spaceflight version of this instrument will address several pressing issues related to the Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (GPM). The X-Band Lightweight Rainfall Radiometer using STAR technology (LRR-X) is an aircraft sensor that is jointly developed by the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center and the University of Michigan. This paper will describe the theory of calibration as well as the hardware design specifications used by the method. The on-board hardware uses individual uncorrelated warm loads on each receiver as well as to a single noise diode providing a correlated noise source to each receiver. A procedure for maintaining onboard calibration with an optimum running average using correlated bursts of thermal noise interleaved with scene data will be exercised during the maiden flight of the LRR-X instrument during the spring of 2003. The final component of calibration of a synthetic aperture radiometer is the image reconstruction algorithm that uses the measured correlations to produce the temperature brightness (TB) images. An overview of system-level testing, both on the ground and in-flight, will be presented to validate the absolute accuracy of the image reconstruction algorithm.

Description: NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation radar (PR) derived rainfall information will be used to estimate the four-dimensional structure of global monthly latent heating and rainfall profiles over the global tropics from December 1997 to November 2000. Rainfall, latent heating and radar reflectivity structures between El Nino (DJF 1997-98) and La Nina (DJF 1998-99) will be examined and compared. The seasonal variation of heating over various geographic locations (i.e., oceanic vs continental, Indian ocean vs west Pacific, Africa vs S. America) will also be analyzed. In addition, the relationship between rainfall, latent heating (maximum heating level), radar reflectivity and SST is examined and will be presented in the meeting. The impact of random error and bias in stratiform percentage estimates from PR on latent heating profiles is studied and will also be presented in the meeting. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Description: The 22 year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), the four year (1997-present) daily GPCP analysis and 3-hr semi-global analyses using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data are used to study global and regional variations and trends during the 22 years and the shorter-time scale events that constitute those variations. The GPCP monthly data set shows no significant trend in global precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. In terms of regional trends 1979 to 2000 the tropics have a distribution of regional rainfall trends that has an ENSO-like pattern with features of both the El Nino and La Nina. This feature is related to a possible trend in the frequency of ENSO events (either El Nino or La Nina) over the past 20 years. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENSO variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The El Nino and La Nina mean anomalies are near mirror images of each other and when combined produce an ENSO signal with significant spatial continuity over large distances. A number of the features are shown to extend into high latitudes. Positive anomalies extend in the Southern Hemisphere (S.H.) from the Pacific southeastward across Chile and Argentina into the south Atlantic Ocean. In the Northern Hemisphere (N.H.) the counterpart feature extends across the southern U.S. and Atlantic Ocean into Europe. In the Southern Hemisphere an anomaly feature is shown to spiral into the Antarctica land mass. The extremes of ENSO-related anomalies are also examined and indicate that globally, during both El Nino and La Nina, more extremes of precipitation ( both wet and dry) occur than during the "neutral" regime, with the El Nino regime showing larger magnitudes. The distribution is different for the globe as a whole and when the area is restricted to just land. The data sets are also explored to monitor extremes in precipitation related to localized and regional flooding and the occurrence of droughts.

Description: South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX, 1998), one of several major TRMM field experiments, has successfully obtained a wealth of information and observational data on the summer monsoon onset and evolution in the South China Sea region. The primary goal of the experiment is to provide a better understanding of the key physical processes for the onset and maintenance of the monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China leading to improved predictions. In this paper, our objective is to investigate the major physical and microphysical processes involved in the convective systems that developed during the onset and post-onset of the South China Sea monsoon - for both the similarities and differences between these two phases. There are two episodes simulated in this study, one of the onset period (May 18-26, 1998) and one of the post-onset period (June 2-11, 1998). The focus of this paper is to study four major aspects between these two different episodes. First, characteristics of rainfall such as rainfall amount and occurrence in the convective and stratiform regions are investigated, as well as the propagation of convective systems. The numerical precipitation fields are also validated against both the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) soundings and Precipitation Radar (PR) observations. Second, the domain-averaged heat and moisture budgets are analyzed to comprehend the essential roles played by physical processes such as the large-scale forcing and latent heat flux. Third, the microphysical processes associated with warm rain or ice are also closely examined during these two episodes. Finally, vertical distributions of Q1 and Q2 budgets are presented to perform a detailed discussion on the energy and moisture cascade in the vertical direction.

Description: In this talk I will review global modeling activities in the United States that could contribute to and benefit from NAME activities. I will present some preliminary results from several global atmospheric general circulation model simulation experiments for the initial NAME model intercomparison project period of May-Oct 1990. These include an ensemble of medium resolution simulations, and a high resolution (one half degree) simulation. I will also discuss possible high resolution global data assimilation experiments that could be used to help validate the model simulations and assimilate planned NAME observations.

Description: In late 2001, the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission was approved as a new start by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The new mission, which is now in its formulation phase, is motivated by a number of scientific questions that are posed over a range of space and time scales that generally fall within the discipline of the global water and energy cycle (GWEC), although not restricted to that branch of research. Recognizing that satellite rainfall datasets are now a foremost tool for understanding global climate variability out to decadal scales and beyond, for improving weather forecasting, and for producing better predictions of hydrometeorological processes including short-term hazardous flooding and seasonal fresh water resources assessment, a comprehensive and internationally sanctioned global measuring strategy has led to the GPM mission. The GPM mission plans to expand the scope of rainfall measurement through use of a multi-member satellite constellation that will be contributed by a number of world nations. This talk overviews the GPM scientific research program that has been fostered within NASA, then focuses on scientific progress that is being made in various areas in the course of the mission formulation phase that are of interest to the Natural Hazards scientific community. This latter part of the talk addresses research issues that have become central to the GPM science implementation plan concerning the rate of the global water cycling, cloud macrophysical-microphysical processes of flood-producing storms, and the general improvement in measuring precipitation at the fundamental microphysical level.

Description: I discuss the need for accurate rainfall observations to improve our knowledge of the atmospheric state and the ability to provide better numerical weather forecasts. I will give an overview of the recent progress in using rainfall data provided by TRMM and other microwave instruments in data assimilation to improve global analyses and shortrange forecasts. In cases of Hurricanes Bonnie and Floyd, results show that assimilation of TRMM and SSM/I rain rates produces initial conditions with better defined tropical storm features that lead to better Hurricane track and quantitative precipitation forecasts. I will outline the current and future research strategies in preparation for the Global Precipitation Mission.

Description: Stratospheric water vapor is important not only for its greenhouse forcing, but also because it plays a significant role in stratospheric chemistry. several recent studies have focused on the potential for dehydration due to ice cloud formation in air rising slowly through the tropical tropopause layer. Holton and Gettelman showed that temperature variations associated with horizontal transport of air in the tropopause layer can drive ice cloud formation and dehydration, and Gettelman et al. recently examined the cloud formation and dehydration along kinematic trajectories using simple assumptions about the cloud properties. In this study, we use a Lagrangian, one-dimensional cloud model to further investigate cloud formation and dehydration as air is transported horizontally and vertically through the tropical tropopause layer. Time-height curtains of temperature are extracted from meteorological analyses. The model tracks the growth and sedimentation of individual cloud particles. The regional distribution of clouds simulated in the model is comparable to the subvisible cirrus distribution indicated by SAGE II. The simulated cloud properties depend strongly on the assumed ice supersaturation threshold for ice nucleation. with effective nuclei present (low supersaturation threshold), ice number densities are high (0.1--10 cm(circumflex)-3), and ice crystals do not grow large enough to fall very far, resulting in limited dehydration. With higher supersaturation thresholds, ice number densities are much lower (less than 0.01 cm(circumflex)-3), and ice crystals grow large enough to fall substantially; however, supersaturated air often crosses the tropopause without cloud formation. The clouds typically do not dehydrate the air along trajectories down to the temperature minimum saturation mixing ratio. Rather the water vapor mixing ratio crossing the tropopause along trajectories is typically 10-50% larger than the saturation mixing ratio.

Description: The Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers - Florida Area Cirrus Experiment (CRYSTAL-FACE) is a measurement campaign designed to investigate tropical Cirrus cloud physical properties and formation processes. Understanding the production of upper tropospheric cirrus clouds is essential for the successful modeling of 'he Earth's climate. The deployment phase will occur in July, 2002 in southern Florida, USA. Several aircraft will be used, including the ER-2 and Proteus for cloud remote sensing, the WB-57 and Citation for in situ cloud measurements, the P-3 with a Doppler radar for characterization of convective systems, and the Twin otter for sampling of inflow airmasses. In addition, numerous ground-based and satellite remote sensing measurements will be contributing. A central focus of the mission is improvement of our ability to model cirrus clouds with numerical models. Several research groups with a variety of model types (cloud-resolving models, mesoscale models, weather-prediction models, and general circulation models) will be participating. Our hope is to fully characterize several mulonimbus/cirrus anvil systems that can be used as case studies for testing and improvement of the models. The models will be used for investigating cirrus generation and dissipation processes and the sensitivity of tropical cirrus to convective intensity and aerosol properties. Ultimately, we expect this effort to improve our ability to represent tropical cirrus in GCMs. A general description of the CRYSTAL-FACE program will be presented, with an emphasis on the cloud modeling approach.

Description: Some studies suggest that the proper initialization of soil moisture in a forecasting model may contribute significantly to the accurate prediction of seasonal precipitation, especially over mid-latitude continents. In order for the initialization to have any impact at all, however, two conditions must be satisfied: (1) the initial soil moisture anomaly must be "remembered" into the forecasted season, and (2) the atmosphere must respond in a predictable way to the soil moisture anomaly. In our previous studies, we identified the key land surface and atmospheric properties needed to satisfy each condition. Here, we tie these studies together with an analysis of an ensemble of seasonal forecasts. Initial soil moisture conditions for the forecasts are established by forcing the land surface model with realistic precipitation prior to the start of the forecast period. As expected, the impacts on forecasted precipitation (relative to an ensemble of runs that do not utilize soil moisture information) tend to be localized over the small fraction of the earth with all of the required land and atmosphere properties.

Description: Understanding the Earth's climate and how it responds to climate perturbations relies on what we know about how atmospheric moisture, clouds, latent heating, and the large-scale circulation vary with changing climatic conditions. The physical process that links these key climate elements is precipitation. Improving the fidelity of precipitation-related fields in global analyses is essential for gaining a better understanding of the global water and energy cycle. In recent years, research and operational use of precipitation observations derived from microwave sensors such as the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager and Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) have shown the tremendous potential of using these data to improve global modeling, data assimilation, and numerical weather prediction. We will give an overview of the benefits of assimilating TRMM and SSM/I rain rates and discuss developmental strategies for using space-based rainfall and rainfall-related observations to improve forecast models and climate datasets in preparation for the proposed multi-national Global Precipitation Mission (GPM).

Description: Extreme lightning flash rates are proving to be an early indicator of intensifying storms capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds and hail. Most of this lightning is in the cloud, where the naked eye can not see it. Recent global observations of thunderstorms from space indicate that giant electrical storms (supercells and convective complexes) with flash rates on the order of 1 flash per second are most common over the land masses of the America sub-tropics and equatorial Congo Basin. Within the United States, the average tornado warning lead time on a national basis is about 11 min. The real-time observation of extreme flash rates and the rapid increase in the in-cloud flash rate, signalling the intensification of the storm updraft, may provide as much as a 50% increase in severe storm warning lead time.

Description: A technique has been developed for assimilating GOES-derived skin temperature tendencies and insolation into the surface energy budget equation of a mesoscale model so that the simulated rate of temperature change closely agrees with the satellite observations. A critical assumption of the technique is that the availability of moisture (either from the soil or vegetation) is the least known term in the model's surface energy budget. Therefore, the simulated latent heat flux, which is a function of surface moisture availability, is adjusted based upon differences between the modeled and satellite observed skin temperature tendencies. An advantage of this technique is that satellite temperature tendencies are assimilated in an energetically consistent manner that avoids energy imbalances and surface stability problems that arise from direct assimilation of surface shelter temperatures. The fact that the rate of change of the satellite skin temperature is used rather than the absolute temperature means that sensor calibration is not as critical. The sea/land breeze is a well-documented mesoscale circulation that affects many coastal areas of the world including the northern Gulf Coast of the United States. The focus of this paper is to examine how the satellite assimilation technique impacts the simulation of a sea breeze circulation observed along the Mississippi/Alabama coast in the spring of 2001. The technique is implemented within the PSU/NCAR MM5 V3-4 and applied on a 4-km domain for this particular application. It is recognized that a 4-km grid spacing is too coarse to explicitly resolve the detailed, mesoscale structure of sea breezes. Nevertheless, the model can forecast certain characteristics of the observed sea breeze including a thermally direct circulation that results from differential low-level heating across the land-sea interface. Our intent is to determine the sensitivity of the circulation to the differential land surface forcing produced via the assimilation of GOES skin temperature tendencies. Results will be quantified through statistical verification techniques.

Description: To estimate the earth's radiation budget at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) from satellite-measured radiances, it is necessary to account for the finite geometry of the earth and recognize that the earth is a solid body surrounded by a translucent atmosphere of finite thickness that attenuates solar radiation differently at different heights. As a result, in order to account for all of the reflected solar and emitted thermal radiation from the planet by direct integration of satellite-measured radiances, the measurement viewing geometry must be defined at a reference level well above the earth s surface (e.g., 100 km). This ensures that all radiation contributions, including radiation escaping the planet along slant paths above the earth s tangent point, are accounted for. By using a field-of- view (FOV) reference level that is too low (such as the surface reference level), TOA fluxes for most scene types are systematically underestimated by 1-2 W/sq m. In addition, since TOA flux represents a flow of radiant energy per unit area, and varies with distance from the earth according to the inverse-square law, a reference level is also needed to define satellite-based TOA fluxes. From theoretical radiative transfer calculations using a model that accounts for spherical geometry, the optimal reference level for defining TOA fluxes in radiation budget studies for the earth is estimated to be approximately 20 km. At this reference level, there is no need to explicitly account for horizontal transmission of solar radiation through the atmosphere in the earth radiation budget calculation. In this context, therefore, the 20-km reference level corresponds to the effective radiative top of atmosphere for the planet. Although the optimal flux reference level depends slightly on scene type due to differences in effective transmission of solar radiation with cloud height, the difference in flux caused by neglecting the scene-type dependence is less than 0.1%. If an inappropriate TOA flux reference level is used to define satellite TOA fluxes, and horizontal transmission of solar radiation through the planet is not accounted for in the radiation budget equation, systematic errors in net flux of up to 8 W/sq m can result. Since climate models generally use a plane-parallel model approximation to estimate TOA fluxes and the earth radiation budget, they implicitly assume zero horizontal transmission of solar radiation in the radiation budget equation, and do not need to specify a flux reference level. By defining satellite-based TOA flux estimates at a 20-km flux reference level, comparisons with plane-parallel climate model calculations are simplified since there is no need to explicitly correct plane-parallel climate model fluxes for horizontal transmission of solar radiation through a finite earth.

Description: Nine months of CERES/TRMM broadband fluxes combined with VIRS high-resolution imager measurements are used to estimate the daily average direct radiative effect of aerosols for clear-sky conditions over the tropical oceans. On average, aerosols have a cooling effect over the tropics of 4.6 +/- 1 W/sq m. The magnitude is approx.2 W/sq m smaller over the southern tropical oceans than it is over northern tropical oceans. The direct effect derived from CERES is highly correlated with coincident aerosol optical depth retrievals inferred from 0.63 microns VIRS radiances (correlation coefficient of 0.96). The slope of the regression line is approx. -32 W/sq m/t over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, but changes both regionally and seasonally, depending on the aerosol characteristics. Near sources of biomass burning and desert dust, the aerosol direct effect reaches -25 W sq m to -30 W/sq m. The direct effect from CERES also shows a dependence on wind speed. The reason for this dependence is unclear-it may be due to increased aerosol (e.g. sea-salt or aerosol transport) or increased surface reflection (e.g. due to whitecaps). The uncertainty in the tropical average direct effect from CERES is approx. 1 W/sq m (approx. 20%) due mainly to cloud contamination, the radiance-to-flux conversion, and instrument calibration. By comparison, uncertainties in the direct effect from the ERBE and CERES "ERBE-Like" products are a factor of 3 to 5 larger.

Description: In recent years, data assimilation has become an indispensable tool for our understanding of the global features of meteorological variables. However, assessments of transport characteristics using trajectory related methods as well as chemical transport models (CTMs) show that results derived from assimilated (or analyzed) winds exhibit significantly larger mixing and entrainment rates compared to results derived from GCM winds, which are closer to results derived from observations (e.g., Douglass et al., 2002; Schoeberl et al., 2002). This discrepancy presents a serious challenge to our ability to understand and model global trace gas transport and distribution. We use the GEOS-DAS to explore this issue by examining how the process of data assimilation alters the dynamics of the underlying GCM and how this leads to the excess of lower stratospheric mixing and transport in the subtropics. In particular, we show that significant model biases in tropical winds necessitate large analysis increments. These increments directly force large subtropical regions of instability with negative PV gradient on the one hand, and generate excessive noise in the tropical wind fields on the other. The result is an excess of transport in the lower stratospheric subtropics.

Description: A merged and highly reduced database of TRMM level 1 (precipitation radar, microwave imager, lightning) and NCEP reanalysis (basic state, radiative and surface flux) data has been assembled for three years of the TRMM mission. This allows direct examination of the dependence of convective spectra (as observed through radar reflectivity, microwave brightness temperature and lightning flash rate) on environmental basic states and anomalies. Such analysis may be more physically justified and instructive than traditional geographic and/or seasonal binning. The dependence of convective spectra on several environmental forcing parameters is presented, including surface Bowen ratio (sensible heat to total turbulent flux), net atmospheric radiative flux convergence and net atmospheric enthalpy flux convergence. The latter are basic drivers of net moisture convergence in simple quasi-equilibrium models of tropical atmospheric convection.

Description: A simple and fundamental problem in cloud electrification is whether or not a cloud can be determined to be producing lightning or not producing lightning, based solely on knowledge of its microphysical (and perhaps environmental) state. A merged database of TRMM radar, microwave and lightning observations and NCEP reanalysis environmental parameters is used to answer this question, for the tropics. The formal skill of traditional, univariate rule-based approaches (e.g., 35 dBZ occurrence at 6 km altitude) is quantified (via the probability of detection (POD), false alarm rate (FAR) and critical skill index (CSI)). Under indiscriminate application to the tropics, peak rule-based CSI for categorization of flashing storms is approximately 50%, with peak POD approximately 67% and minimum FAR approximately 33%, with peak CSI found for radar reflectivity-based parameters at 7-7.5 km altitude (near -15C). Separation of land and ocean domains yields approximately 5-10% gains in CSI over land. Conventional multivariate categorization techniques (discriminant analysis) are then applied, and less conventional (neural network) categorization techniques are also discussed.

Description: We have evaluated two methods of simulating the seasonal cycle of snow over sea ice in and around the Arctic: The NCAR global climate model CCM3, with its standard snow hydrology, and the snow pack model SNTHERM, forced with hourly atmospheric output from CCM3. A new dataset providing dates for the onset of snow melt over Arctic sea ice provides a means for assessing basin-wide how well the models simulate melt onset, but contains no information on how long it then takes for all the snow to melt. Use of data from the SHEBA site provides very detailed information on the behavior of the snow before and during the melt season, but only for a very limited area. Russian drift data provide climatological data on the seasonal cycle of snow water equivalent and snow density, over multi-year sea ice in the central Arctic basin. These datasets are used to compare the two modeling methods, and to see if use of the more physically-realistic SNTHERM provides any significant improvements. Conclusions obtained so far include: 1. Both CCM3 and CCM3/SNTHERM do a good job overall of matching the onset of snow melt dataset; although CCM3/SNTHERM consistently trends to underestimate the date and CCM3 to overestimate it. 2. SHEBA and ice drift data for the Arctic show that CCM3/ SNTHERM does a better job than CCM3 at simulating the total melt period. 3. Ice drift snow density and accumulation data suggest that while providing superior results, CCM3/SNTHERM may still suffer from overly vigorous melting. 4. Both the large-scale atmospheric forcing and snow pack physical processes are important in proper simulation of the snow seasonal cycle. Ongoing work includes further diagnosis of CCM3/SNTHERM, use of more observational datasets, especially from marginal seas in the pan-Arctic, and full coupling of SNTHERM into CCM3 (work to date has all been off-line simulations).

Description: Recent studies at the Global Hydrology and Climate Center (GHCC) have shown that the assimilation of land skin temperature (LST) tendencies into a mesoscale model can significantly improve short-term forecasts of near surface air temperature and moisture. Derived land surface products from the GOES satellites were used in these studies to provide high spatial and temporal resolution information about the spatial and temporal variability of the land surface forcing simulated in the model. In the model assimilation studies, LST was derived using a split window technique using the 11 and 12 pm channels found on the GOES-8 Sounder. These studies used a constant surface emissivity of 0.98 for both channels. However, this emissivity assumption over the land does not take into account emissivity variations due to varying terrain characteristics and differences between channels. These emissivity variations are seen to be significant as indicated by emissivity products from the polar orbiting MODIS instrument channels similar to the GOES-8 Sounder channels mentioned above. MODIS is a key instrument aboard the Terra (EOS AM) and Aqua (EOS PM) satellites. In an attempt to improve the emissivity assumptions used in the GOES Sounder LST retrieval procedure, the incorporation of MODIS high spatial resolution (1 km) emissivity measurements into the LST procedure is being explored. This paper intercompares the LST retrievals from the GOES-8 Sounder using a constant emissivity assumption with those using MODIS retrieved emissivities. The effects of MODIS emissivities on the LST retrievals are discussed. Potential improvements in model forecasts using assimilated LST products incorporating MODIS emissivities are also examined.

Description: The effects of the stratospheric sulfate aerosol layer associated with the Mt. Pinatubo volcano and future volcanic eruptions on the recovery of the ozone layer is studied with an interactive two-dimensional photochemical model. The time varying chlorine loading and the stratospheric cooling due to increasing carbon dioxide have been taken into account. The computed ozone and temperature changes associated with the Mt. Pinatubo eruption in 1991 agree well with observations. Long model runs out to the year 2050 have been carried out, in which volcanoes having the characteristics of the Mount Pinatubo volcano were erupted in the model at 10-year intervals starting in the year 2010. Compared to a non-volcanic run using background aerosol loading, transient reductions of globally averaged column ozone of 2-3 percent were computed as a result of each of these eruptions, with the ozone recovering to that computed for the non-volcanic case in about 5 years after the eruption. Computed springtime Arctic column ozone losses of from 10 to 18 percent also recovered to the non-volcanic case within 5 years. These results suggest that the long-term recovery of ozone would not be strongly affected by infrequent volcanic eruptions with a sulfur loading approximating Mt. Pinatubo. Sensitivity studies in which the Arctic lower stratosphere was forced to be 4 K and 10 K colder resulted in transient ozone losses of which also recovered to the non-volcanic case in 5 years. A case in which a volcano five times Mt. Pinatubo was erupted in the year 2010 led to maximum springtime column ozone losses of 45 percent which took 10 years to recover to the background case. Finally, in order to simulate a situation in which frequent smaller volcanic eruptions result in increasing the background sulfate loading, a simulation was made in which the background aerosol was increased by 10 percent per year. This resulted in a delay of the recovery of column ozone to 1980 values of more than 10 years.

Description: The Antarctic ozone hole is a region of extremely large ozone depletion that is roughly centered over the South Pole. Since 1979, the area coverage of the ozone hole has grown from near zero size to over 24 Million square kilometers. In the 8-year period from 1981 to 1989, the area expanded by 18 Million square kilometers. During the last 5 years, the hole has been observed to exceed 25 Million square kilometers over brief periods. We will review these size observations, the size trends, and the interannual variability of the size. The area is derived from the area enclosed by the 220 DU total ozone contour. We will discuss the rationale for the choice of 220 DU: 1) it is located near the steep gradient between southern mid-latitudes and the polar region, and 2) 220 DU is a value that is lower than the pre- 1979 ozone observations over Antarctica during the spring period. The phenomenal growth of the ozone hole was directly caused by the increases of chlorine and bromine compounds in the stratosphere. In this talk, we will show the relationship of the ozone hole's size to the interannual variability of Antarctic spring temperatures. In addition, we will show the relationship of these same temperatures to planetary-scale wave forcings.

Description: The 3D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model was used to simulate convection that occurred during the TRMM LBA field experiment in Brazil. Convection in this region can be categorized into two different regimes. Low-level easterly flow results in moderate to high CAPE and a drier environment. Convection is more intense like that seen over continents. Low-level westerly flow results in low CAPE and a moist environment. Convection is weaker and more widespread characteristic of oceanic or monsoon-like systems. The GCE model has been used to study both regimes in order to provide cloud data sets that are representative of both environments in support of TRMM rainfall and heating algorithm development. Two different case are presented: Jan 26,1999, an easterly regime case, and Feb 23,1999, a westerly regime case. The Jan 26 case is an organized squall line and is initialized with a standard cold pool. The sensitivity to mid-level sounding moisture and wind shear will also be shown. The Feb 23 case is less-organized with only transient lines and is initialized with either warm bubbles or prescribed surface fluxes. Heating profiles, rainfall statistics and storm characteristics are compared and validated for the two cases against observations collected during the experiment.

Description: An overview of mean convective thermodynamic and wind profiles for the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Large Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment (LBA) and Kwajalein Experiment (KWAJEX) field campaigns will be presented, highlighting the diverse continental and marine tropical environments in which rain clouds and mesoscale convective systems evolved. An assessment of ongoing sounding quality control procedures will be shown. Additionally, we will present preliminary budgets of sensible heat source (Q1) and apparent moisture sink (Q2), which have been diagnosed from the various sounding networks.

Description: A main purpose of this study is to compare satellite products from TRMM, AMSU-A and QuikSCAT with a unique, extensive aircraft data set in Category 3 Hurricane Erin on September 10,2001, and to draw some preliminary conclusions from the data. For the first time, dropwinsondes were obtained by the NASA ER-2 aircraft. There were 8 soundings in the eye, core and surroundings radially out to the edge of the Central Dense Overcast (CDO). Additionally, 11 dropwinsondes from the DC-8 aircraft at about 12 km documented the storm outskirts and environment. TRMM made a direct overpass of the eye as did both NOAA-15 and NOM-16 with AMSU on board. Among the most interesting results: Contours of the tropopause height (a first). As expected from earlier fragmentary results, the tropopause was approximately 1 km higher in the core than in the environment. The highest tropopause was about 2 km above the tallest towers in the eyewall, south-southeast of the eye center, suggesting that earlier convective towers had been higher than those measured by EDOP and TRMM during the flights. Surprisingly, the heaviest precipitation was on the opposite side of the eyewall from the tallest convective towers. The warm core was elongated in the vertical, and poorly retrieved from the AMSU-A data by the NESDIS profile retrieval algorithm. The eye of Erin was "dirty". A CCN/CN counter flown on the NOAA P3 at 14.3 km showed a concentration of 1500 aerosol particles per cubic centimeter. This is an order of magnitude higher than a sample in the hurricane environment. TRMM data are used to hypothesize an explanation.

Description: An ozone data assimilation system at the NASA/Goddard Data Assimilation Office (DAO) produces three-dimensional global ozone fields. They are obtained by assimilating ozone retrieved from the Solar Backscatter UltraViolet/2 (SBUV/2) instrument and the Earth Probe Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (EP TOMS) measurements into an off-line parameterized chemistry and transport model. In this talk we focus on the quality of lower stratospheric assimilated ozone profiles. Ozone in the lower stratosphere plays a key role in the forcing of climate. A biased ozone field in this region will adversely impact calculations of the stratosphere-troposphere exchange and, when used as a first guess in retrievals, the values determined from satellite observations. The SBUV/2 ozone data have a coarse vertical resolution with increased uncertainty below the ozone maximum, and TOMS provides only total ozone columns. Thus, the assimilated ozone profiles in the lower stratosphere are only weakly constrained by the incoming SBUV and TOMS data. Consequently, the assimilated ozone distribution should be sensitive to changes in inputs to the statistical analysis scheme. We investigate the sensitivity of assimilated ozone profiles to changes in a variety of system inputs: TOMS and SBUV/2 data selection, forecast and observations error covariance models, inclusion or omission of a parameterized chemistry model, and different versions of DAO assimilated wind fields used to drive the transport model. Comparisons of assimilated ozone fields with independent observations, primarily ozone sondes, are used to determine the impact of each of these changes.

Description: In the 15-year GEOS-1 reanalysis data set, a maximum of interannual variance of low- level meridional flow for the warm season (May through August) occurs over southeast Texas. This variance maximum seems to be dominated by a marked biennial oscillation that occurs only during the first 6 (or possibly 8) years of the reanalysis period (1980-85 or possibly 1980-1987) and then completely disappears by the 9th year. This biennial oscillation seems to be associated with interannual fluctuations in ground wetness, surface temperature and surface pressure gradients over Texas. The periods of drier soil lead to warmer surface temperatures, lower surface pressures, stronger pressure gradients between Texas and the Gulf of Mexico and stronger southerly winds. This intermittent biennial oscillation is also evident in corresponding fields for the the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data set for the years 1978-1985 (and possibly from 1978- 1987) and 1995-2000, but not during other periods. There are also obvious biennial oscillations evident during these periods in U.S. Climate Division records for the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for Texas. Month-by-month correlations of this index with certain el Nino related indices are as high as .45 for the first period and as high as .55 or .6 for the second period for some regions in Texas. The seasonal cycle of the biennial signal in the PDSI and precipitation for the first period suggest that the drought in Texas and Mexico is ended (caused) by a reversal in the sign of anomalies in precipitation rate for the fall/winter season. Analysis of tropical Pacific SST patterns shows a .5 to .75 K biennial oscillation of SSTs along the precipitation-free track to the southwest of the Mexican coast during the fall and winter months of the 1978 to 1985 period that might explain the reversal in precipitation anomalies and hence the entire intermittent biennial oscillation in ground hydrology and low-level flow.

Description: Mid-latitude forest ecosystems have been proposed as a "missing sink" today. The role of soils (including wetlands) in this proposed sink is a very important unknown. In order to make estimates of future climate change effects on carbon storage, we can examine past wetland carbon sequestration. How did past climate change affect net wetland carbon storage? We present long-term data from existing wetland sites used for paleoclimate reconstruction to assess the net carbon storage in wetland over the last 15000 years. During times of colder and wetter climate, many mid-latitude sites show increases in carbon storage, while past warmer, drier climates produced decreases in storage. Comparison among bog, fen, swamp, and tidal marsh are demonstrated for the Hudson Valley region.

Description: Data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission's (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) were employed to identify warm season rainfall (1998-2000) patterns around Atlanta, Montgomery, Nashville, San Antonio, Waco, and Dallas. Results reveal an average increase of -28% in monthly rainfall rates within 30-60 kilometers downwind of the metropolis with a modest increase of 5.6% over the metropolis. Portions of the downwind area exhibit increases as high as 51%. The percentage changes are relative to an upwind control area. It was also found that maximum rainfall rates in the downwind impact area exceeded the mean value in the upwind control area by 48% - 116%. The maximum value was generally found at an average distance of 39 km from the edge of the urban center or 64 km from the center of the city. Results are consistent with METROMEX studies of St. Louis almost two decades ago and with more recent studies near Atlanta. Future work is extending the investigation to Phoenix, Arizona, an arid U.S. city, and several international cities like Mexico City, Johannesburg, and Brasilia. The study establishes the possibility of utilizing satellite-based rainfall estimates for examining rainfall modification by urban areas on global scales and over longer time periods. Such research has implications for weather forecasting, urban planning, water resource management, and understanding human impact on the environment and climate.

Description: One of the most promising methods to test the representation of cloud processes used in climate models is to use observations together with Cloud Resolving Models (CRMs). The CRMs use more sophisticated and realistic representations of cloud microphysical processes, and they can reasonably well resolve the time evolution, structure, and life cycles of clouds and cloud systems (size about 2-200 km). The CRMs also allow explicit interaction between out-going longwave (cooling) and in-coming solar (heating) radiation with clouds. Observations can provide the initial conditions and validation for CRM results. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Model, a CRM, has been developed and improved at NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center over the past two decades. The GCE model has been used to understand the following: 1) water and energy cycles and their roles in the tropical climate system; 2) the vertical redistribution of ozone and trace constituents by individual clouds and well organized convective systems over various spatial scales; 3) the relationship between the vertical distribution of latent heating (phase change of water) and the large-scale (pre-storm) environment; 4) the validity of assumptions used in the representation of cloud processes in climate and global circulation models; and 5) the representation of cloud microphysical processes and their interaction with radiative forcing over tropical and midlatitude regions. Four-dimensional cloud and latent heating fields simulated from the GCE model have been provided to the TRMM Science Data and Information System (TSDIS) to develop and improve algorithms for retrieving rainfall and latent heating rates for TRMM and the NASA Earth Observing System (EOS). More than 90 referred papers using the GCE model have been published in the last two decades. Also, more than 10 national and international universities are currently using the GCE model for research and teaching. In this talk, five specific major GCE improvements: (1) ice microphysics, (2) longwave and shortwave radiative transfer processes, (3) land surface processes, (4) ocean surface fluxes and (5) ocean mixed layer processes are presented. The performance of these new GCE improvements will be examined. Observations are used for model validation.

Description: Global measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxides (CO2) are needed to resolve significant discrepancies that exist in our understanding of the global carbon budget and, therefore, man's role in global climate change. The science measurement requirements for CO2 are extremely demanding (precision c .3%) No atmospheric chemical species has ever been measured from space with this precision. We are developing a novel application of a Fabry-Perot interferometer to detect spectral absorption of reflected sunlight by CO2 and O2 in the atmosphere. Preliminary design studies indicate that the method will be able to achieve the sensitivity and signal-to-noise required to measure column CO2 at the target specification. We are presently engaged in the construction of a prototype instrument for deployment on an aircraft to test the instrument performance and our ability to retrieve the data in the real atmosphere. In the first 6 months we have assembled a laboratory bench system to begin testing the optical and electronic components. We are also undertaking some measurements of signal and noise levels for actual sunlight reflecting from the ground. We shall present results from some of these ground based studies and discuss their implications for a space based system.

Description: Under a joint agreement between the National Aeronautics and Space Agency (NASA) and the Russian Aviation and Space Agency (RASA), the Stratospheric Aerosol Gas Experiment III (SAGE III) instrument was launched in low earth orbit on December 10,2001 aboard the Russian Meteor-3M satellite from the Baikonur Cosmodrome. SAGE III is a spectrometer that measures attenuated radiation in the 282 nm to 1550 nm wavelength range to obtain the vertical profiles of ozone, aerosols, and other chemical species that are critical in studying the trends for the global climate change phenomena. This instrument version is more advanced than any of the previous versions and has more spectral bands, elaborate data gathering and storage, and intelligent terrestrial software. There are a number of Russian scientific instruments aboard the Meteor satellite in addition to the SAGE III instrument. These instruments deal with land imaging and biomass changes, hydro-meteorological monitoring, and helio-geophysical research. This mission was under development for over a period of six years and offered a number of unique technical and program management challenges for both Agencies. SAGE III has a long space heritage, and four earlier versions of this instrument have flown in space for nearly two decades now. In fact, SAGE II, the fourth instrument, is still flying in space on NASA s Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS), and has been providing important atmospheric data over the last 18 years. It has provided vital ozone and aerosol data in the mid latitudes and has contributed vastly in ozone depletion research. Ball Aerospace built the instrument under Langley Research Center s (LaRC) management. This paper presents innovative approaches deployed by the SAGE III and the Meteor teams in performing the initial on-orbit checkout. It further documents a number of early science results obtained by deploying low risk, carefully coordinated procedures in resolving the serious operational issues of this satellite.

Description: During the coming decade, the internationally organized Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission will take an important step in creating a global precipitation observing system from space based on an international fleet of satellites operated as a constellation of opportunity. One perspective for understanding the nature of GPM is that it will be a hierarchical system of datastreams beginning with very high caliber combined dual frequency radar/passive microwave (PMW) rain-radiometer retrievals, to high caliber PMW rain- radiometer only retrievals, and then on to blends of the former datastreams with additional lower-caliber PMW-based and IR-based rain retrievals. Within the context of the now emerging global water & energy cycle (GWEC) programs of a number of research agencies throughout the world, GPM serves as a centerpiece space mission for improving our understanding of the Earth's water cycle from a global measurement perspective and on down to regional scales and below. One of the salient problems within our current understanding of the global water and energy cycle is determining whether a change in the rate of the water cycle is accompanying changes in climate, e.g., climate warming. As there are a number of ways in which to define a rate- change of the global water cycle, it is not entirely clear as to what constitutes such a determination. This paper first presents an overview of the GPM Mission and how its overriding scientific objectives for climate, weather, and hydrology flow from the anticipated improvements that are being planned for the constellation-based measuring system. Next, the paper shows how the GPM observations can be used within the framework of the oceanic and continental water budget equations to determine whether a given perturbation in precipitation is indicative of an actual rate change in the water cycle, consistent with required responses in water storage and/or water flux transport processes, or whether it is simply part of the natural variability of a fixed rate cycle.

Description: Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) observations over mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) reveal that there are localized maxima in the rain rate with a scale of about 10 to 20 km that represent thunderstorms (Cbs). Some of these Cbs are developing or intense, while others are decaying or weak. These Cbs constitute only about 20 % of the rain area of a given MCS. Outside of Cbs, the average rain rate is much weaker than that within Cbs. From an analysis of the PR data, we find that the spatial distribution of rain and its character, convective or stratiform, is highly inhomogeneous. This complex nature of rain exists on a scale comparable to that of a Cb. The 85 GHz brightness temperature, T85, observations of the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) radiometer taken over an MCS reflect closely the PR rain rate pattern over land. Local maxima in rain rate shown by PR are observed as local minima in T85. Where there are no minima in T85, PR observations indicate there is light rain. However, the TMI brightness temperature measurements (Tbs) have poor ability to discriminate convective rain from stratiform rain. For this reason, a TMI rain retrieval procedure that depends primarily on the magnitude of Tbs performs poorly. In order to retrieve rain rate from TMI data on land one has to include the spatial distribution information deduced from the T85 data in the retrieval method. Then, quantitative estimation of rain rate can be accomplished. A TMI rain retrieval method developed along these lines can yield estimates of rain rate and its frequency distribution which agree closely with that given by PR. We find the current TRMM project TMI (Version 5) rain retrieval algorithm on land could be improved with the retrieval scheme developed here. To support the conceptual frame work of the rain retrieval method developed here, a theoretical analysis of the TMI brightness temperatures in convective and stratiform regions is presented.

Description: In early September, throughout south central Africa, seasonal clearing of dry vegetation and the production of charcoal for cooking leads to intense smoke haze and ozone formation. Ozone soundings made over Lusaka in early September 2000 recorded layers of high ozone (greater than 125 ppbv at 5 km) during two stagnant periods, broken by a frontal passage that reduced boundary layer ozone by 30%. During the 6-day measurement period, surface ozone concentrations ranged from 50-95 ppbv and integrated tropospheric ozone from the soundings was 39-54 Dobson Units (note 1.3 km elevation at the launch site). A stable layer of high ozone at 2-5 km was advected from rural burning regions in western Zambia and neighboring countries, making Lusaka a collection point for transboundary pollution. This is confirmed by trajectories that show ozone leaving Angola, Namibia, Botswana and South Africa before heading toward the Indian Ocean and returning to Lusaka via Mozambique and Zimbabwe. Ozone in the mixed layer at Lusaka is heavily influenced by local sources.

Description: Remote sensing observations reveal the frequent occurrence of tropopause cirrus, thin cirrus layers located near the tropical cold-point tropopause. Here, we present a theory in which tropical convection plays several important roles in tropopause cirrus formation. First, tropical convection is the primary means by which the moisture required for tropopause cirrus formation is transported into the upper troposphere. However, previous studies suggest that this convection rarely penetrates to the altitudes at which tropopause cirrus layers are observed, suggesting that additional vertical moisture transport is required to explain tropopause cirrus formation. We propose a mechanism for explaining this transport in which tropical convection plays the key role. According to this hypothesis, the transport is accomplished by meridional circulations that develop within the tropopause transition layer (TTL) in response to momentum transport by Rossby waves generated by tropical convection. Results of a series of global scale model runs designed to test this hypothesis will be presented. In addition, reanalyses vertical velocity data will be examined for evidence of the expected correlation between large-scale rising motion within the TTL and tropical convection. Once moisture is present near the cold-point tropopause, large-scale cooling is required to initiate tropopause cirrus formation. One source of this cooling is stratospheric tropical waves induced by tropical convection, as we will show using a time series of radiosonde temperature data superimposed with data on cloud occurrence from the DOE ARM Nauru99 field experiment. Observations of the global characteristics of these waves from a longer time series of reanalysis data will also be presented.

Description: The Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) on the Mars Global Surveyor has made extensive observations of the Martian atmospheric water vapor column since the beginning of its mapping mission in early 1999. The results show broad agreement with the earlier Viking Mars Atmospheric Water Detector (MAWD) results (though column amounts in southern summer are higher, perhaps due to dust obscuration during the Viking mission). General circulation model (GCM) simulations of the annual Martian water cycle also show broad agreement with the TES observations. Details of the simulations depend on cloud and boundary layer parameterizations and on the adsorbing properties of the regolith. In order to make quantitative assessments of this agreement and to obtain observational values for the required physical parameters, a tracer transport data assimilation model has been developed. Model winds are derived from both tracer measurements and retrieved atmospheric temperature structures, providing a useful check of the underlying dynamical core of the GCM. By allowing detailed intercomparison between spacecraft and ground-based observations of Martian water vapor, the model should also contribute significantly to our understanding of the diurnal water cycle.

Description: Thin cirrus clouds (with optical depth tau much less than 1) play a potentially important role in the Earth atmosphere. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard the Terra satellite has a channel at 1.375 microns that is specifically designed to detect these clouds. During two three-day periods from December 2000 and June 2001, I show that thin cirrus clouds are ubiquitous throughout the tropics. These thin cirrus generally have optical depths below 0.05 and appear with greater frequency and optical depth near deep convection. Regressing top-of-atmosphere outgoing longwave flux data from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) against optical depth, we calculate that these thin clouds decrease outgoing longwave flux by approx. 1 W/sq m/(0.01 tau). This translates into longwave forcing of several W/sq m near convection and zero away from convection. Averaging over the whole tropics, these thin cirrus decrease average longwave forcing is approx. 1.4 W/sq m.

Description: Mineral aerosols can absorb significant radiation in the infrared spectrum. Consequently, there may be errors in TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) retrieved temperature and moisture profiles in regions of heavy dust loading. We first investigate the potential error in the temperature retrievals and secondly attempt to account for radiative effects of the dust in retrievals. Information on the dust concentrations and size distribution is from the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Transport model (GOCART). Aerosol optical parameters are calculated from mie scattering theory assuming a composition of pure illite. We used the cloud-clearing DAO TOVS retrieval system of Joiner and Rokke (2000). It is incorporated into the Data Assimilation Office (DAO) Finite Volume Data Assimilation System (NDAS). The advantage of this approach is that the first guess temperature profile used in the TOVS retrieval are forecasted temperatures from the previous assimilated time period. The operational DAO fvDAS was run for 10 days during June 2001 during a period of dust outbreaks off the coast of Africa over the Atlantic. The observed minus the forecast (O-F) brightness temperature at each TOVS channel is a measure of the accuracy of the retrieval. Since there was no account of dust during this operational run, a dependence of O-F on the estimated atmospheric dust concentrations from GOCART indicates that the dust is contaminating the TOVS retrievals. Channels that measure the surface temperature, lower tropospheric temperature and moisture show this dependence. There are errors in the retrieved brightness temperature of a half a degree or more during heavy dust loading conditions. The forecasted brightness temperature is always greater than the observed value. The radiative transfer module used in the DAO TOVS retrieval system was modified to account for dust. We calculate the sensitivity of the brightness temperature of the TOVS channels to the dust concentrations in GOCART assuming pure illite. For most channels the observed relationship between O-F and dust concentrations in GOCART is consistent with these calculated sensitivities. The fvDAS run was repeated using the modified DAO TOVS retrieval system that accounts for dust. Preliminary results from this run show that there are significant effects on the retrieved surface temperature and tropospheric moisture.

Description: The Data Assimilation Office (DAO) has been developing a new generation of ultra-high resolution General Circulation Model (GCM) that is suitable for 4-D data assimilation, numerical weather predictions, and climate simulations. These three applications have conflicting requirements. For 4-D data assimilation and weather predictions, it is highly desirable to run the model at the highest possible spatial resolution (e.g., 55 kin or finer) so as to be able to resolve and predict socially and economically important weather phenomena such as tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and severe winter storms. For climate change applications, the model simulations need to be carried out for decades, if not centuries. To reduce uncertainty in climate change assessments, the next generation model would also need to be run at a fine enough spatial resolution that can at least marginally simulate the effects of intense tropical cyclones. Scientific problems (e.g., parameterization of subgrid scale moist processes) aside, all three areas of application require the model's computational performance to be dramatically improved as compared to the previous generation. In this talk, I will present the current and future developments of the "finite-volume dynamical core" at the Data Assimilation Office. This dynamical core applies modem monotonicity preserving algorithms and is genuinely conservative by construction, not by an ad hoc fixer. The "discretization" of the conservation laws is purely local, which is clearly advantageous for resolving sharp gradient flow features. In addition, the local nature of the finite-volume discretization also has a significant advantage on distributed memory parallel computers. Together with a unique vertically Lagrangian control volume discretization that essentially reduces the dimension of the computational problem from three to two, the finite-volume dynamical core is very efficient, particularly at high resolutions. I will also present the computational design of the dynamical core using a hybrid distributed- shared memory programming paradigm that is portable to virtually any of today's high-end parallel super-computing clusters.

Description: The first measurements of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) within and around tropical cyclones were made with the Desert Research Institute (DRI) CCN spectrometer (Hudson 1909) from a NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft throughout the 2001 season. Two penetrations of the closed eye of Hurricane Erin off the northeast US coast on Sept. 10 showed concentrations consistently well in excess of 1000 per cubic cm at approximately 1.4% supersaturation. Simultaneous condensation nuclei (CN--total particle) concentrations were consistently well in excess of 2000 per cubic cm throughout these closed eye penetrations. These within eye measurements at 4 km altitude for exceeded CCN and CN measurements just outside of the storm at similar altitudes--300 and 600 per cubic cm respectively. These CCN and CN concentrations within this closed eye were far above concentrations in maritime air masses; they are characteristic of continental or polluted air masses. Although there was a possibility that Saharan duct may have gotten into this storm these sub tenth micrometer particles are much too small and much too numerous to be dust. Such high concentrations may have originated from European air pollution, which may have been transported by similar airflow patterns to those that carry Saharan dust across the Atlantic. These high concentrations may be a manifestation of descending air that brings higher concentrations that are often characteristic of the upper troposphere (Clarke and Kapustin 2002). Later in the month measurements in Humberto showed highly variable CCN and CN concentrations that ranged from lots than 5 per cubic cm to more than 1000 per Cubic cm over km scale distances within and around the open eye of this tropical storm/hurricane. These very low concentrations suggest strong cloud scavenging.

Description: Based on the single-scattering optical properties pre-computed with an improved geometric optics method, the bulk absorption coefficient, single-scattering albedo, and asymmetry factor of ice particles have been parameterized as a function of the effective particle size of a mixture of ice habits, the ice water amount, and spectral band. The parameterization has been applied to computing fluxes for sample clouds with various particle size distributions and assumed mixtures of particle habits. It is found that flux calculations are not overly sensitive to the assumed particle habits if the definition of the effective particle size is consistent with the particle habits that the parameterization is based. Otherwise, the error in the flux calculations could reach a magnitude unacceptable for climate studies. Different from many previous studies, the parameterization requires only an effective particle size representing all ice habits in a cloud layer, but not the effective size of individual ice habits.

Description: Physical thickness of a cloud layer, and sometimes multiple cloud layers, can be estimated from the time delay of off-beam returns from a pulsed laser source illuminating one side of the cloud layer. In particular, the time delay of light returning from the outer diffuse halo of light surrounding the beam entry point, relative to the time delay at beam center, determines the cloud physical thickness. The delay combined with the pulse stretch gives the optical thickness. The halo method works best for thick cloud layers, typically optical thickness exceeding 2, and thus compliments conventional lidar which cannot penetrate thick clouds. Cloud layer top and base have been measured independently over the ARM/SGP site using conventional laser ranging (lidar) and the top minus base thickness are compared with a cloud top halo estimate obtained from the NASA/Goddard THOR System (THOR = THickness from Offbeam Returns). THOR flies on the NASA P3, and measures the halo timings from several km above cloud top, at the same time providing conventional lidar cloud top height. The ARM/SGP micropulse lidar provides cloud base height for validation.

Description: Global wind profiles are needed for a wide range of meteorological applications. Since the 1980's, observing system simulation experiments have been conducted in order to evaluate the potential impact of space-based wind profiler data on numerical weather prediction, and to evaluate trade-offs in lidar design. These experiments indicated tremendous potential for satellite lidar observations to improve atmospheric analyses and forecasts. More recent experiments are aimed at assessing the precise requirements for space-based lidar wind profile data and to evaluate the potential for alternative technologies. At the workshop, OSSE methodology, and results from experiments conducted at the DAO to the define requirements for space-based lidar wind will be presented.

Description: The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) has completed more than four years in orbit. A summary of research highlights will be presented focusing on application of TRMM data to topics ranging over climate analysis, improving forecasts, precipitation processes and non-precipitation applications. One focus of the talk will be the quasi-global TRMM real-time merged rainfall analysis with 3-hr resolution, which uses TRMM to calibrate estimates from other polar-orbit and geosynchronous satellites. These rainfall estimates provide useful information for applications for assimilation into numerical models and for hydrological studies. The status of precipitation estimates from different TRMM instruments and algorithms will be described. Monthly surface rainfall estimates over the ocean based on different instruments on TRMM currently differ by 20% in overall mean. In addition, time changes in global ocean rainfall between El Nino and La Nina conditions show differences between the active and passive microwave products. Improved versions of algorithms will shortly resolve most of these differences. The TRMM rainfall estimates are intercompared among themselves and with other estimates, including those of the standard, monthly Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) analysis. A four-year TRMM rainfall climatology is presented, including anomaly fields related to the changing ENSO situation during the mission. The evolution of precipitation analysis incorporating Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR) data on AQUA and ADEOS II and eventually data from the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) will also be described.

Description: During the last three weeks of September 2001, the East Pacific Investigation of Climate Processes in the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere System (EPIC2001) intensive field campaign focused on studies of deep convection in the ITCZ-cold tongue complex over the Mexican warm-pool region (10 deg. N 95 deg. W) of the eastern Pacific Ocean. Major observational platforms deployed during this phase of EPIC2001 included two ships, the NOAA R/V Ronald H. Brown and the NSF R/V Horizon, and two research aircraft including a NOAA P-3 and the NCAR C-130. This study utilizes new C-band Doppler radar and sounding observations collected aboard the R/V Ronald Brown to describe the 4-D structure of ITCZ convection as a function of the environmental forcing and phase of 3-5 day easterly wave passages. Three distinct easterly wave passages occurred during EPIC2001. Each wave originated in the eastern Atlantic Ocean and after moving over Central America and into the eastern Pacific, were easily identified in time-height profiles of wind and thermodynamic data collected at the position of the R/V Brown. In all cases, the wave trough axes (as defined by changes in the meridional and zonal wind direction and changes in pressure altitude) exhibited relatively weak shear at low to mid-levels and tilted westward with height. The humidity profile in each wave did not exhibit as great a tilt in the vertical as the trough axes. Consistent with previous studies of westward tilting waves over the western Pacific Ocean, peaks in radar diagnosed rainfall tended to lead the passage of the surface wave trough by 0-2 days.

Description: The 22 year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), the four year (1997-present) daily GPCP analysis and 3-hr semi-global analyses using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data are used to study global and regional variations and trends during the 22 years and the shorter-time scale events that constitute those variations. The GPCP monthly data set shows no significant trend in global precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. In terms of regional trends 1979 to 2000 the tropics have a distribution of regional rainfall trends that has an ENSO-like pattern with features of both the El Nino and La Nina. This feature is related to a possible trend in the frequency of ENSO events (either El Nino or La Nina) over the past 20 years. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENSO variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The El Nino and La Nina mean anomalies are near mirror images of each other and when combined produce an ENSO signal with significant spatial continuity over large distances. A number of the features are shown to extend into high latitudes Positive anomalies extend in the Southern Hemisphere (S.H.) from the Pacific southeastward across Chile and Argentina into the south Atlantic Ocean. In the Northern Hemisphere (N.H.) the counterpart feature extends across the southern U.S. and Atlantic Ocean into Europe. In the Southern Hemisphere an anomaly feature is shown to spiral into the Antarctica land mass. The extremes of ENSO-related anomalies are also examined and indicate that globally, during both El Nino and La Nina, more extremes of precipitation (both wet and dry) occur than during the "neutral" regime, with the El Nino regime showing larger magnitudes. The distribution is different for the globe as a whole and when the area is restricted to just land.

Description: During the last three weeks of September 2001, the EPIC-2001 intensive field campaign focused on studies of deep convection in the ITCZ over the Mexican warm pool region (10N, 95W) of the East Pacific. This study focuses on the pronounced observed diurnal cycle of environmental and convective parameters within the experiment domain. Data from three primary sources are examined: the R/V Ronald H. Brown C-band weather radar, 4-hourly soundings from the Brown and the Global Atmospherics, Inc. National Lightning Detection Network (long range product). Satellite data from TRMM, GOES and OV-1 are also used. The domain boundary layer shows a robust daily evolution of moist enthalpy (as reflect by equivalent potential temperature, theta-e, or wet bulb potential temperature, theta-w), with contributions from changes in both dry and moist entropy. Peak theta-w is found after local nightfall; the average diurnal range of theta-w is approximately 1 deg C. A composite diurnal cycle of convective properties was derived from the C-band volume scans, sampled continuously through the experiment at 10 minute updates. Products derived from the volumetric data include a surface PPI, 15 and 30 dBZ echo top height, vertically integrated liquid, and 6 km (mixed phase region) reflectivity CAPPIs. For almost all products, the parameter means showed virtually no diurnal cycle. However, for the upper-level products, the parameter spectra showed a clear peak in the occurrence of deep/vigorous convection (the "tail end of the distribution") between 7-9 UTC (1-3 AM local), while overall frequency of occurrence peaked later, from 12-15 UTC (6-9 AM local). This represents a daily "outbreak" of isolated deep cells a couple of hours after sunset and subsequent growth, organization and decay through the nighttime hours. The coherence of the diurnal cycle of the convective spectrum is impressive given the wide variety of convective organization observed during the experiment, and given the modulation by passage of 3-5 day easterly waves. While earlier satellite OLR composites suggested an offshore coastal migration of storms into the domain at night, examination of the 150 km and 300 km range radar products showed little evidence of such organization; almost all convection developed "in-place" within the analysis domain. Consistent with the diurnal thermodynamic and microphysical evolution, a clear cycle in cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning occurrence was observed. The local CG diurnal cycle is significantly stronger than the satellite-derived tropical ocean diurnal cycle of total (IC+CG) lightning. Flash rates of 3-4 fl/min were often visually observed after nightfall; these are fairly 'healthy' flash rates for tropical ocean storms, and the domain was qualitatively noted to be unusually lightning-productive by the R/V Brown crew (also consistent with satellite-based climatologies).

Description: During the 1998 and 2001 hurricane seasons, the Advanced Microwave Precipitation Radiometer (AMPR) was flown aboard the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) ER-2 high altitude aircraft as part of the Third Convection And Moisture EXperiment (CAMEX-3) and the Fourth Convection And Moisture Experiment (CAMEX-4). Several hurricanes and tropical storms were sampled during these experiments. The passive microwave observations of these tropical cyclones collected at frequencies of 10.7, 19.35, 37.1, and 85.5 GHz will be presented to explain differences in precipitation features of the hurricanes. In particular, the relationship of the passive microwave signatures of precipitation-sized ice to vertical updraft strength will be examined as a possible indicator of future convective intensity. Correlated aircraft radar, lightning, visible and infrared information will also be examined to provide further insight.

Description: During the recently completed East Pacific Investigation of Climate Processes in the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere System (EPIC) field program, the NOAA research vessel Ronald H. Brown (RHB) was deployed in the east Pacific Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) for approximately 3 weeks near 10 deg. N, 95 deg. W. One of the principal objectives of the EPIC-ITCZ program was to observe the modulation of convection by synoptic-scale easterly waves and the air-sea coupling process in this poorly sampled region of the east Pacific. Data from the experiment will be used as validation to improve forecast models. The RHB carried a variety of platforms during EPIC to sample atmospheric and oceanic phenomena, including a scanning C-band Doppler radar, radiation flux instrumentation, air-sea flux system, Doppler lidar, 35 GHz cloud radar, UHF wind profiler, sea surface temperature (SST) sensors, as well as standard surface meteorological instrumentation and a suite of rain gauges. This presentation will focus on the analysis of C-band radar data that was collected on 10 September, 2001 as the ship passed through an easterly wave which later developed into hurricane Ivo. The ship captured approximately 12 hours of convection associated with the tropical disturbance. During this period, the domain sampled by the radar (approximately 71,000 sq km) contained a significant number of echo features. Specifically, the fraction of the domain containing radar echo above 10 dBZ reached 80% for over 2 hours and remained near 60% for a continuous six hour period. Animation of radar images showed distinct rotation in echo features associated with the easterly wave passage. Despite an approximate 4 C drop in surface air temperature and sustained winds approaching 20 m/ s, the SST remained nearly constant throughout the observation period (approx. 29.5 C). Peak values of latent and sensible heat flux exceeded 400 and 100 W /sq m, respectively. The radar documented the change in precipitation vertical structure as the ship passed through regions of significant convection with echo tops approaching 14 km and 30 dBZ echo tops extending to near 9 km embedded in regions that were predominantly stratiform in nature. Single Doppler retrievals (Extended Velocity Azimuth Display) were conducted continuously at 10-minute resolution for approximately 4 hours in the latter part of the observation period, and documented the transition from convection (low-level convergence, upper level divergence) to stratiform (mid-level convergence sandwiched between upper and lower level divergence) kinematic structure.

Description: Data from a single WSR-88D Doppler radar and the National Lightning Detection Network are used to examine the characteristics of the convective storms that produced a severe tornado outbreak within Tropical Storm Beryl's remnants on 16 August 1994. Comparison of the radar data with reports of tornadoes suggests that only 12 cells produced the 29 tornadoes that were documented in Georgia and the Carolinas on that date. Six of these cells spawned multiple tornadoes, and the radar data confirm the presence of miniature supercells. One of the cells was identifiable on radar for 11 hours, spawning tornadoes over a time period spanning approximately 6.5 hours. Time-height analyses of the three strongest supercells are presented in order to document storm kinematic structure and evolution. These Beryl mini-supercells were comparable in radar-observed intensity but much more persistent than other tropical cyclone-spawned tornadic cells documented thus far with Doppler radars. Cloud-to-ground lightning data are also examined for all the tornadic cells in this severe swarm-type tornado outbreak. These data show many of the characteristics of previously reported heavy-precipitation supercells. Lightning rates were weak to moderate, even in the more intense supercells, and in all the storms the lightning flashes were almost entirely negative in polarity. No lightning at all was detected in some of the single-tornado storms. In the stronger cells, there is some evidence that lightning rates can decrease during tornadogenesis, as has been documented before in some midlatitude tornadic storms. A number of the storms spawned tornadoes just after producing their final cloud-to-ground lightning flashes. These findings suggest possible benefits from implementation of observing systems capable of monitoring intracloud as well as cloud-to-ground lightning activity.

Description: Surface-air temperatures in winter and spring in central Europe rose over the second half of the 20th century, reported for different data-spans, and by different approaches (Ross et al., 1996; Angell, 1999; Hansen et al., 1999; Demaree et al., 2002). Analysis with a finer temporal resolution shows that late-winter and early-spring (February and March) trends are much stronger than the 3-month season averages (Otterman et al., 2002a). Responding to this need for finer than 3- month resolution, observations at meteorological stations in central Europe are analyzed here for the years 1951-2002, computing six-pentad (5-day period) averages (effectively monthly averages for January, February, and March). The daily minimum surface-air temperature, T(sub min), and the daily maximum temperature, T(sub max), rose steeply in Berlin and Poznan' in the years 1951-1995. Based on sensitivity studies, the bulk of this sharp warming is due to stronger southwesterlies over the North Atlantic, with which the temperatures in Europe are strongly correlated (Otterman et al., 1999; 2002a). However, for the most recent seven years, a pronounced downturn of the warming is observed, which we attribute to the concurrent, 1996-2002, sharp downturn of the ocean-surface southwesterlies over the North Atlantic (Otterman et al., 2002b). Such changes in the ocean winds and variations in the storm tracks are associated with changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO (Rogers, 1997). The NAO index, the difference in the surface pressure between Iceland and Azores, constitutes a measure of the zonal winds over the eastern North Atlantic, and thus is a critically important factor influencing the flow of maritime air into Europe (but the temperature of the advected airmasses depends on the meridional component, as we discuss). The recent (1996-2002) downturn in this index resulted in much colder spring temperatures in Europe, with adverse significance for the growing season.

Description: Weather is a significant factor in General Aviation (GA) accidents and fatality rates. Graphical Weather Information Systems (GWISs) for the flight deck are appropriate technologies for mitigating the difficulties GA pilots have with current aviation weather information sources. This paper describes usability evaluations of a prototype GWIS by 12 GA pilots after using the system in flights towards convective weather. We provide design guidance for GWISs and discuss further research required to support weather situation awareness and in-flight decision making for GA pilots.

Description: New data products are available from the CERES instrument, a part of the NASA Earth Observing System. The Single Scanner Footprint (SSF) product combines radiative fluxes with extensive information on the cloud conditions in the footprint, which are retrieved using the co-orbiting imager instrument. These data have been analyzed to more accurately define the radiative properties for the various regions of the recently-proposed adaptive infrared Iris. A variety of ways of defining the cloudy moist region were examined. According to CERES, the net radiative flux for the cloudy moist region ranges between 28 and 54 W/m2 depending on the specific definition used. This is in contrast to the value of 123 W/m2 which was somewhat subjectively assigned by LCH. This simple model may miss many feedbacks in the climate system, but it should provide a rough range of the climate variations if the physics of the Iris is correct. There is some question whether the change in cloudy moist area with cloud-weighted SST actually represents a useful quantity, and whether extrapolating it from a regional variation to a global response to warmer climate is appropriate. Regardless, the current results show that the proposed Iris feedback is very much weaker when objectively-determined radiative properties are used in the model.

Description: CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Spaceborne Observations) is an approved satellite mission being developed through collaboration between NASA and the French space agency CNES. The mission is scheduled for launch in 2004 and will operate for 3 years as part of a five-satellite formation called the Aqua constellation. This constellation will provide a unique data set on aerosol and cloud optical and physical properties and aerosol-cloud interactions that will substantially increase our understanding of the climate system and the potential for climate change.

Description: Initial flight experiments have been conducted to investigate convectively induced turbulence and to test technologies for its airborne detection. Turbulence encountered during the experiments is described with sources of data measured from in situ sensors, groundbased and airborne Doppler radars, and aircraft video. Turbulence measurements computed from the in situ system were quantified in terms of RMS normal loads (sigma(sub Delta n)), where 0.20 g is less than or equal to sigma(sub Delta n) is less than or equal to 0.30 g is considered moderate and sigma(sub Delta n) is greater than 0.30 g is severe. During two flights, 18 significant turbulence encounters (sigma(sub Delta) is greater than or equal to 0.20 g) occurred in the vicinity of deep convection; 14 moderate and 4 severe. In all cases, the encounters with turbulence occurred along the periphery of cumulus convection. These events were associated with relatively low values of radar reflectivity, i.e. RRF is less than 35 dBz, with most levels being below 20 dBz. The four cases of severe turbulence occurred in precipitation and were centered at the interface between a cumulus updraft turret and a downwind downdraft. Horizontal gradients of vertical velocity at this interface were found to be strongest on the downwind side of the cumulus turrets. Furthermore, the greatest loads to the aircraft occurred while flying along, not orthogonal to, the ambient environmental wind vector. During the two flights, no significant turbulence was encountered in the clear air (visual meteorological conditions), not even in the immediate vicinity of the deep convection.

Description: A numerical simulation of a convective turbulence event is investigated and compared with observational data. The specific case was encountered during one of NASA's flight tests and was characterized by severe turbulence. The event was associated with overshooting convective turrets that contained low to moderate radar reflectivity. Model comparisons with observations are quite favorable. Turbulence hazard metrics are proposed and applied to the numerical data set. Issues such as adequate grid size are examined.

Description: Aircraft encounters with atmospheric turbulence are a leading cause of in-flight injuries aboard commercial airliners and cost the airlines millions of dollars each year. Most of these injuries are due to encounters with turbulence in and around convection. In a recent study of 44 turbulence accident reports between 1990 and 1996, 82% of the cases were found to be near or within convective activity (Kaplan et al. 1999). According to NTSB accident reports, pilots' descriptions of these turbulence encounters include 'abrupt', 'in Instrument Meteorological Conditions (IMC)', 'saw nothing on the weather radar', and 'the encounter occurred while deviating around' convective activity. Though the FAA has provided guidelines for aircraft operating in convective environments, turbulence detection capability could decrease the number of injuries by alerting pilots of a potential encounter. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration, through its Aviation Safety Program, is addressing turbulence hazards through research, flight experiments, and data analysis. Primary focus of this program element is the characterization of turbulence and its environment, as well as the development and testing of hazard estimation algorithms for both radar and in situ detection. The ultimate goal is to operationally test sensors that will provide ample warning prior to hazardous turbulence encounters. In order to collect data for support of these activities, NASA-Langley's B-757 research aircraft was directed into regions favorable for convectively induced turbulence (CIT). On these flights, the airborne predictive wind shear (PWS) radar, augmented with algorithms designed for turbulence detection, was operated in real time to test this capability. In this paper, we present the results of two research flights when turbulence was encountered. Described is an overview of the flights, the general radar performance, and details of four encounters with severe turbulence.

Description: The third and fourth NASA Convection and Moisture Experiments (CAMEX-3 and CAMEX-4) during the Atlantic hurricane seasons of 1998 and 2001, respectively, have yielded comprehensive multi-aircraft datasets using, both remote and in-situ instrumentation. Among these are high-frequency in-situ measurements of vertical wind, horizontal wind, temperature, and water vapor, made from NASA's DC-8 aircraft in the upper portions of the hurricane (typically above 10 km). Wind and temperature measurements were made at 20 hz by the NASA/Ames Meteorological Measurement System, while water vapor was measured at 1 hz by the NASA/JPL Laser Hygrometer. Fluxes of heat, momentum, and moisture at these levels are important, since modeling studies have shown that ice processes, which are dominant at temperatures below -40C (where the DC-8 flies) are important for hurricane intensification. Also, there are indications from satellite studies that latent heat release at DC-8 levels is significant, perhaps a third of those in the mid-troposphere. Preliminary results show that typical updrafts in the eyewall region are comparable to or higher than previous observations of tropical convection, with several instances of updraft magnitudes of 15 meters per second (the maximum observed was 21 meters per second). They also show significant supersaturations (10-20% or more) in the updrafts, which would enhance the latent heat release at the upper levels of the hurricane. This paper will examine the magnitude and distribution of small and mesoscale vertical fluxes of mass, momentum, moisture, and heat. The goal is to examine the role of these fluxes in the overall budgets of the respective quantities in the upper portions of the hurricane.

Description: In this investigation the sensitivities of a 2-D tropical cyclone (TC) model to surface frictional coefficient and the Coriolis parameter are studied and their implication is discussed. The model used is an axisymmetric version of the latest version of the Goddard cloud ensemble model. The model has stretched vertical grids with 33 levels varying from 30 m near the bottom to 1140 m near the top. The vertical domain is about 21 km. The horizontal domain covers a radius of 962 km (770 grids) with a grid size of 1.25 km. The time step is 10 seconds. An open lateral boundary condition is used. The sea surface temperature is specified at 29C. Unless specified otherwise, the Coriolis parameter is set at its value at 15 deg N. The Newtonian cooling is used with a time scale of 12 hours. The reference vertical temperature profile used in the Newtonian cooling is that of Jordan. The Newtonian cooling models not only the effect of radiative processes but also the effect of processes with scale larger than that of TC. Our experiments showed that if the Newtonian cooling is replaced by a radiation package, the simulated TC is much weaker. The initial condition has a temperature uniform in the radial direction and its vertical profile is that of Jordan. The initial winds are a weak Rankin vortex in the tangential winds superimposed on a resting atmosphere. The initial sea level pressure is set at 1015 hPa everywhere. Since there is no surface pressure perturbation, the initial condition is not in gradient balance. This initial condition is enough to lead to cyclogenesis, but the initial stage (say, the first 24 hrs) is not considered to resemble anything observed. The control experiment reaches quasi-equilibration after about 10 days with an eye wall extending from 15 to 25 km radius, reasonable comparing with the observations. The maximum surface wind of more than 70 m/s is located at about 18 km radius. The minimum sea level pressure on day 10 is about 886 hPa. Thus the overall simulation is considered successful and the model is considered adequate for our investigation.

Description: Cirrus measurements obtained with a ground-based polarization Raman lidar at 67.9 deg N in January 1997 reveal a strong positive correlation between the particle optical properties, specifically depolarization ratio delta(sub par) and extinction- to-backscatter (lidar) ratio S, for delta(sub par) less than approximately 40%, and an anti-correlation for delta(sub par) greater than approximately 40%. Over the length of the measurements the particle properties vary systematically. Initially, delta (sub par) approximately equals 60% and S approximately equals 10sr are observed. Then, with decreasing delta(sub par), S first increases to approximately 27sr (delta(sub par) approximately equals 40%) before decreasing to values around 10sr again (delta(sub par) approximately equals 20%). The analysis of lidar humidity and radiosonde temperature data shows that the measured optical properties stem from scattering by dry solid ice particles, while scattering by supercooled droplets, or by wetted or subliming ice particles can be excluded. For the microphysical interpretation of the lidar measurements, ray-tracing computations of particle scattering properties have been used. The comparison with the theoretical data suggests that the observed cirrus data can be interpreted in terms of size, shape, and, under the assumption that the lidar measurements of consecutive cloud segments can be mapped on the temporal development of a single cloud parcel moving along its trajectory, growth of the cirrus particles: Near the cloud top in the early stage of cirrus development, light scattering by nearly isometric particles that have the optical characteristics of hexagonal columns (short, column-like particles) is dominant. Over time the ice particles grow, and as the cloud base height extends to lower altitudes characterized by warmer temperatures they become morphologically diverse. For large S and depolarization values of approximately 40%, the scattering contributions of column- and plate-like particles are roughly the same. In the lower ranges of the cirrus clouds, light scattering is predominantly by plate-like ice particles. This interpretation assumes random orientation of the cirrus particles. Simulations with a simple model suggest, however, that the positive correlation between S and delta(sub par) which is observed for depolarization ratios less than 40% mainly at low cloud altitudes, can be alternatively explained by horizontal alignment of a fraction of the cirrus particle population.

Description: Work under this grant has involved further development of a new aircraft instrument (the cloudscope) for real time characterization of atmospheric particulates together with field observations of such particulates, both in the form of ice and also as nuclei responsible for nucleation of both ice and water cloud particles. Part of the work involving assessment of the frequency of ice crystal shapes has been carried out in collaboration with the Meteorological Service of Canada; part of the work in a field program with the NCAR C-130. Part of the work has been interpreted in terms of laboratory simulation of ice crystal growth under a wide variety of conditions carried out under a grant from Physical Meteorology Program, National Science Foundation.

Description: The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) Terra and Aqua missions has shown considerable capability for mapping snowcover. The typical approach that has used, along with other criteria, the Normalized Snow Difference Index (NDSI) that takes the difference between 500 meter observations at 1.64 micrometers (MODIS band 6) and 0.555 micrometers (MODIS band 4) over the sum of these observations to determine whether MODIS pixels are snowcovered or not in mapping the extent of snowcover. For many hydrological and climate studies using remote sensing of snowcover, it is desirable to assess if the MODIS snowcover observations could not be enhanced by providing the fraction of snowcover in each MODIS observation (pixel). Pursuant to this objective studies have been conducted to assess whether there is sufficient "signal%o in the NDSI parameter to provide useful estimates of fractional snowcover in each MODIS 500 meter pixel. To accomplish this objective high spatial resolution (30 meter) Landsat snowcover observations were used and co-registered with MODIS 500 meter pixels. The NDSI approach was used to assess whether a Landsat pixel was or was not snowcovered. Then the number of snowcovered Landsat pixels within a MODIS pixel was used to determine the fraction of snowcover within each MODIS pixel. The e results were then used to develop statistical relationships between the NDSI value for each 500 meter MODIS pixel and the fraction of snowcover in the MODIS pixel. Such studies were conducted for three widely different areas covered by Landsat scenes in Alaska, Russia, and the Quebec Province in Canada. The statistical relationships indicate that a 10 percent accuracy can be attained. The variability in the statistical relationship for the three areas was found to be remarkably similar (-0.02 for mean error and less than 0.01 for mean absolute error and standard deviation). Independent tests of the relationships were accomplished by taking the relationship of fractional snow-cover to NDSI from one area (e.g., Alaska) and testing it on the other two areas (e.g. Russia and Quebec). Again the results showed that fractional snow-cover can be estimated to 10 percent. The results have been shown to have advantages over other published fractional snowcover algorithms applied to MODIS data. Most recently the fractional snow-cover algorithm has been applied using 500-meter observations over the state of Colorado for a period spanning 25 days. The results exhibit good behavior in mapping the spatial and temporal variability in snowcover over that 25-day period. Overall these studies indicate that robust estimates of fractional snow-cover can be attained using the NDSI parameter over areas extending in size from watersheds relatively large compared to MODIS pixels to global land cover. Other refinements to this approach as well as different approaches are being examined for mapping fractional snow-cover using MODIS observations.

Description: The first view of lower stratospheric and upper tropospheric structure from sondes is provided by a 3-year, 10-site record from the Southern Hemisphere ADditional OZonesondes (SHADOZ) network: http://code9 16.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/shadoz. Observations covering 1998-2000 were made over Ascension Island; Nairobi, Kenya; Irene, South Africa; La Reunion Island; Watukosek, Java; Fiji; Tahiti; American Samoa; San Cristobal, Galapagos; Natal, Brazil. Taking the UT/LS (upper troposphere-lower stratosphere) as the region between 12 and 17 km, we examine ozone variability in this region on a week-to- week and seasonal basis. The tropopause is lower in September-October-November than in March-April-May, when ozone is a minimum at most SHADOZ stations. A zonal wave-one pattern (referring to ozone mixing ratios greater over the Atlantic and adjacent continents than over the Pacific and eastern Indian Ocean), persists all year. The wave, predominantly in the troposphere and with variable magnitude, appears to be due to general circulation - with subsidence over the Atlantic and frequent deep convection over the Pacific and Indian Ocean. The variability of deep convection - most prominent at Java, Fiji, Samoa and Natal - is explored in time-vs-altitude ozone curtains. Stratospheric incursions into the troposphere are most prominent in soundings at Irene and Reunion Island.

Description: Ground-based LIDAR observations can potentially provide continuous profiles of CO2 through the planetary boundary layer and into the free troposphere. We will present initial atmospheric measurements from a prototype system that is based on components developed by the telecommunications industry. Preliminary measurements and instrument performance calculations indicate that an optimized differential absorption LIDAR (DIAL) system will be capable of providing continuous hourly averaged profiles with 250m vertical resolution and better than 1 ppm precision at 1 km. Precision increases (decreases) at lower (higher) altitudes and is directly proportional to altitude resolution and acquisition time. Thus, precision can be improved if temporal or vertical resolution is sacrificed. Our approach measures absorption by CO2 of pulsed laser light at 1.6 microns backscattered from atmospheric aerosols. Aerosol concentrations in the planetary boundary layer are relatively high and are expected to provide adequate signal returns for the desired resolution. The long-term goal of the project is to develop a rugged, autonomous system using only commercially available components that can be replicated inexpensively for deployment in a monitoring network.

Description: Our Numerical Spectral Model (NSM) extends from the ground up into the thermosphere and has a vertical grid point resolution of about 0.5 km to resolve the interactions of gravity waves (GWs) described with Hines' Doppler Spread Parameterization (DSP). This model produces in the stratosphere and mesosphere the major features of QBO, SAO, tides, and planetary waves. The purpose of this paper is to discuss results from an initial study with our 3D model that shows how certain tropospheric processes can affect the dynamics of the middle atmosphere. Under the influence of tropospheric heating, and augmented by GW interactions, two distinct but related processes can be identified. (1) A meridional circulation develops in the stratosphere, with rising motions at low latitudes that are in magnitude comparable to the downward propagation of the QBO. As Dunkerton pointed out, a larger GW source is then required to reproduce the observed QBO, which tends to move us closer to the values recommended for the DSP. This has significant consequences for our model results that describe the upper mesosphere, considering the general importance of GWs for this region and in influencing planetary waves (e.g., 2-day wave) and tides in particular. (2) Tropospheric heating produces zonal jets near the tropopause that are related to latitudinal variations in pressure and reversing temperature variations (resembling the dynamical conditions near the mesopause), which in turn is conducive to generate baroclinic instability. Modeling results show that our ability to generate the QBO critically depends on the magnitude of the temperature reversal that is a measure of this instability. Planetary waves are generated in this process, which can apparently interfere with or augment the GW interactions. As originally demonstrated by Lindzen and Holton, the eastward propagating Kelvin waves and westward propagating Rossby gravity waves (generated by tropospheric convection) can in principle provide the acceleration to influence the QBO, and we were able to confirm this with our 3D model.

Description: Four global scale and three regional scale chemical transport models are intercompared and evaluated during NASA's TRACE-P experiment. Model simulated and measured CO are statistically analyzed along aircraft flight tracks. Results for the combination of eleven flights show an overall negative bias in simulated CO. Biases are most pronounced during large CO events. Statistical agreements vary greatly among the individual flights. Those flights with the greatest range of CO values tend to be the worst simulated. However, for each given flight, the models generally provide similar relative results. The models exhibit difficulties simulating intense CO plumes. CO error is found to be greatest in the lower troposphere. Convective mass flux is shown to be very important, particularly near emissions source regions. Occasionally meteorological lift associated with excessive model-calculated mass fluxes leads to an overestimation of mid- and upper- tropospheric mixing ratios. Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) depth is found to play an important role in simulating intense CO plumes. PBL depth is shown to cap plumes, confining heavy pollution to the very lowest levels.

Description: The catastrophic August 2002 floods in central Europe followed very intense rains over a span of several days, reported over a large region. On Aug. 12 meteorological stations over an elongated swath, from the vicinity of Saltzburg (Austria) in the south to the vicinity of Berlin in the north, reported precipitation exceeding 100 mm/day. Synoptic analysis points to a jet streak in the mid-Atlantic. moving eastward, which reached Spain on about 9th of August. An understanding of the mechanism that ultimately produced the unprecedented rains was derived conveniently from the GEOS 3 Model developed at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. Examining the scenarios of omega, we observe on Aug. 10, OOZ, a center of ascending vertical motions, stronger than 0.6 Pa/s at the 700 hPa level over the western Mediterranean. Advecting moist and warm air to higher levels from the near-ocean level, the center moved eastward, reaching the northern Adriatic on Aug. 11, OOZ, then continuing northeast to the regions where most intense precipitation was reported on Aug. 12. The omega at 850 hPa shows a closely similar pattern but especially interesting is the 850 omega pattern on Aug. 12, 12Z, which shows descending motions stronger than 0.4 Pa/s over the eastern Po Valley (northern Italy), and an elongated region of ascending motions stronger than 1.0 Pa/s coinciding in extent with the extreme-precipitation region on that day. At that time, the cyclone which formed over the Po Valley, was centered on eastern Czech Republic, producing on its western side these strong ascending motions over the precipitation region. The pattern of the surface-pressure lows provides further insight into the processes, and specifically, the Aug. 12,06Z map, shows a 996 mb low over the western Czech Republic. The flooding following the extreme rains was acerbated by the fact that river-channels were made narrower over the recent decades by the urbanization of river banks.

Description: The first climatological overview of total, stratospheric and tropospheric ozone in the southern hemisphere tropical and subtropics is based on ozone sounding data from 10 sites comprising the Southern Hemisphere Additional OZonesondes (SHADOZ) network. The period covered is 1998-2000. Observations were made over: Ascension Island; Nairobi, Kenya; Irene, South Africa; Reunion Island; Watukosek, Java; Fiji; Tahiti; American Samoa; San Cristobal, Galapagos; Natal, Brazil. Campaign data were collected on a trans-Atlantic oceanographic cruise and during SAFARI-2000 in Zambia. The ozone data, with simultaneous temperature profiles to approx. 7 hPa and relative humidity to approx. 200 hPa, reside at: 〈http://code916.gsfc.nasa.nov/Data_services/shadoz〉. SHADOZ ozone time-series and profiles give a perspective on tropical total, stratospheric and tropospheric ozone. Prominent features are highly variable tropospheric ozone and a zonal wave-one pattern in total (and tropospheric) column ozone. Total, stratospheric and tropospheric column ozone amounts peak between August and November and are lowest between March and May. Tropospheric ozone variability over the Indian and Pacific Ocean displays influences of the Indian Ocean Dipole and convective mixing. Pollution transport from Africa and South America is a seasonal feature. Tropospheric ozone seasonality over the Atlantic Basin shows effects of regional subsidence and recirculation as well as biomass burning. Dynamical and chemical influences appear to be of comparable magnitude though model studies are needed to quantify this.

Description: Precipitation recycling is defined as the amount of water that evaporates from a region that precipitates within the same region. This is also interpreted as the local source of water for precipitation. In this study, the local and remote sources of water for precipitation have been diagnosed through the use of passive constituent tracers that represent regional evaporative sources along with their transport and precipitation. We will discuss the differences between this method and the simpler bulk diagnostic approach to precipitation recycling. A summer seasonal simulation has been analyzed for the regional sources of the United States Great Plains precipitation. While the tropical Atlantic Ocean (including the Gulf of Mexico) and the local continental sources of precipitation are most dominant, the vertically integrated column of water contains substantial water content originating from the Northern Pacific Ocean, which is not precipitated. The vertical profiles of regional water sources indicate that local Great Plains source of water dominates the lower troposphere, predominantly in the PBL. However, the Pacific Ocean source is dominant over a large portion of the middle to upper troposphere. The influence of the tropical Atlantic Ocean is reasonably uniform throughout the column. While the results are not unexpected given the formulation of the model's convective parameterization, the analysis provides a quantitative assessment of the impact of local evaporation on the occurrence of convective precipitation in the GCM. Further, these results suggest that local source of water is not well mixed throughout the vertical column.

Description: A number of observations and simulations have shown that increased droplet concentrations in ship tracks increase their total cross-sectional area, thereby enhancing cloud albedo and providing a negative (cooling) radiative forcing at the surface and the top of the atmosphere. In some cases cloud water has been found to be enhanced in ship tracks, which has been attributed to suppression of drizzle and implies an enhanced susceptibility of cloud albedo to droplet concentrations. However, observations from aircraft and satellite indicate that on average cloud water is instead reduced in daytime ship tracks. Such a reduction in liquid water may be attributable to cloud-burning caused by solar heating by soot within the ship exhaust, or by increased precipitation resulting from giant nuclei in the ship exhaust. We will summarize the observational evidence and present results from large-eddy simulations that evaluate these mechanisms. Along the way we will present our insights into the interpretation of satellite retrievals of cloud microphysical properties.

Description: In the early 1990s, the first small, eye-safe, and autonomous lidar system was developed, the Micropulse Lidar (MPL). The MPL acquires signal profiles of backscattered laser light from aerosols and clouds. The signals are analyzed to yield multiple layer heights, optical depths of each layer, average extinction-to-backscatter ratios for each layer, and profiles of extinction in each layer. In 2000, several MPL sites were organized into a coordinated network, called MPL-Net, by the Cloud and Aerosol Lidar Group at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) using funding provided by the NASA Earth Observing System. tn addition to the funding provided by NASA EOS, the NASA CERES Ground Validation Group supplied four MPL systems to the project, and the NASA TOMS group contributed their MPL for work at GSFC. The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM) also agreed to make their data available to the MPL-Net project for processing. In addition to the initial NASA and ARM operated sites, several other independent research groups have also expressed interest in joining the network using their own instruments. Finally, a limited amount of EOS funding was set aside to participate in various field experiments each year. The NASA Sensor Intercomparison and Merger for Biological and Interdisciplinary Oceanic Studies (SIMBIOS) project also provides funds to deploy their MPL during ocean research cruises. All together, the MPL-Net project has participated in four major field experiments since 2000. Most MPL-Net sites and field experiment locations are also co-located with sunphotometers in the NASA Aerosol Robotic Network. (AERONET). Therefore, at these locations data is collected on both aerosol and cloud vertical structure as well as column optical depth and sky radiance. Real-time data products are now available from most MPL-Net sites. Our real-time products are generated at times of AERONET aerosol optical depth (AOD) measurements. The AERONET AOD is used as input to our processing routines, which calculate the aerosol layer top height and extinction profile, and our MPL calibration value. A variety of other data products are available or under development. We present an overview of the MPL-Net project and discuss data products useful to the AERONET community. Results from several sites and field experiments will be presented.

Description: We have developed and implemented a retrospective data assimilation system (RDAS) as an upgrade to the operational DAO/Terra data assimilation system. This formulation aims at improving analysis over filter analysis by the dynamically consistent incorporation of observation information past a given analysis time. The current implementation of the RDAS uses the adjoint of the tangent linear model of a simplified version of the Terra general circulation model and extensions to the physical-space statistical analysis system to propagate observation information back in time. The RDAS adopts the same assumptions of the regular data assimilation system, particularly, no explicit propagation of error covariances are involved therefore rendering a procedure that is computationally affordable. In this study, we show results of experiments conducted to investigate the performance of the 6-hour (lag-1) RDAS. Statistical results obtained over one month during a winter season indicate that the RDAS represents considerable improvement over the regular assimilation. Plans for implementation of the RDAS capability in our new finite-volume data assimilation system will also be presented at the time of the conference.

Description: The surface heat budgets, sea surface temperature (SST), clouds and winds in the tropical western Pacific are analyzed and compared for the periods April-June 1998 and 1999. The spring of 1998 is in the later phase of a strong El Nino, whereas the spring of 1999 is in a period of a La Nina. The surface shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) radiative fluxes are retrieved from Japanese Geostationary Meteorological Satellite radiance measurements, while the surface turbulent fluxes (latent and sensible heat) are derived from SSM/I-Inferred surface air humidity and winds. The SST and sea-air temperature differences are taken from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. Deep convection is inferred from the outgoing longwave radiation of NOAA's polar-orbiting satellites. The longitudinal shift in maximum SST, deep convection and winds during El Nino and La Nina have a large impact on the spatial distribution of surface heating. Changes in clouds between these two periods have a large impact on the monthly-mean radiative heating, exceeding 60 W m(exp -2) over large oceanic regions. Similarly, the differences in wind speeds and SST have a large impact on the latent cooling, exceeding 40 W m(exp -2) over large oceanic areas. However, the maximum impacts on radiative and latent heat fluxes occur in different regions. The regions of maximum impact on radiative fluxes coincide with the regions of maximum change in clouds, whereas regions of maximum impact on turbulent heat fluxes coincide with the regions of maximum change in trade winds. The time-evolution of SST in relation to that of surface heat fluxes and winds are investigated and compared between the two El Nino and La Nina periods. In regions where wind speeds (or wind stresses) are large, the change in SST agrees well with the change in the net surface heating, indicating a deep ocean mixed layer associated with strong trade winds. On the other hand, in regions where radiative fluxes are large, the change in SST does not agree well with the change in the net surface heating, indicating the importance of solar radiation penetrating through the bottom of the shadow ocean mixed layer.

Description: Status, progress and plans will be given for current GCSS (GEWEX Cloud System Study) WG2 (Working Group on Cirrus Cloud Systems) projects, including: (a) the Idealized Cirrus Model Comparison Project, (b) the Cirrus Parcel Model Comparison Project (Phase 2), and (c) the developing Hurricane Nora extended outflow model case study project. Past results will be summarized and plans for the upcoming year described. Issues and strategies will be discussed. Prospects for developing improved cloud parameterizations derived from results of GCSS WG2 projects will be assessed. Plans for NASA's CRYSTAL-FACE (Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Layers - Florida Area Cirrus Experiment) potential opportunities for use of those data for WG2 model simulations (future projects) will be briefly described.

Description: Physical thickness of a cloud layer, sometimes multiple cloud layers, is a crucial controller of solar heating of the Earth- atmosphere system, which drives the convective processes that produce storm systems. Yet clouds of average optical thickness are opaque to conventional lidar, so their thickness is well estimated only by combining a lidar above and another below cloud, or a radar and lidar on the same side, dual facilities not widely available. Here we report initial observations of a new airborne multiple field of view lidar, capable of determining physical thickness of cloud layers from time signatures of off-beam returns from a I kHz micropulse lidar at 540 rim. For a single layer, the time delay of light returning from the outer diffuse halo of light surrounding the beam entry point, relative to the time delay at beam center, determines the cloud physical thickness. The delay combined with the pulse stretch gives the optical thickness. This halo method requires cloud optical thickness exceeding 2, and improves with cloud thickness, thus complimenting conventional lidar, which cannot penetrate thick clouds. Results are presented from March 25, 2002, when THOR flew a butterfly pattern over the ARM site at 8.3 km, above a thin ice cloud at 5 km, and a thick boundary-layer stratus deck with top at 1.3 km, as shown by THOR channel 1, and a base at about 0.3 km as shown by the ground-based MPL. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Description: A new multi-station VHF time-of-arrival (TOA) antenna network is, at the time of this writing, coming on-line in Northern Alabama. The network, called the Lightning Mapping Array (LMA), employs GPS timing and detects VHF radiation from discrete segments (effectively point emitters) that comprise the channel of lightning strokes within cloud and ground flashes. The network will support on-going ground validation activities of the low Earth orbiting Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) satellite developed at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) in Huntsville, Alabama. It will also provide for many interesting and detailed studies of the distribution and evolution of thunderstorms and lightning in the Tennessee Valley, and will offer many interesting comparisons with other meteorological/geophysical wets associated with lightning and thunderstorms. In order to take full advantage of these benefits, it is essential that the LMA channel mapping accuracy (in both space and time) be fully characterized and optimized. In this study, a new revised channel mapping retrieval algorithm is introduced. The algorithm is an extension of earlier work provided in Koshak and Solakiewicz (1996) in the analysis of the NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR) system. As in the 1996 study, direct algebraic solutions are obtained by inverting a simple linear system of equations, thereby making computer searches through a multi-dimensional parameter domain of a Chi-Squared function unnecessary. However, the new algorithm is developed completely in spherical Earth-centered coordinates (longitude, latitude, altitude), rather than in the (x, y, z) cartesian coordinates employed in the 1996 study. Hence, no mathematical transformations from (x, y, z) into spherical coordinates are required (such transformations involve more numerical error propagation, more computer program coding, and slightly more CPU computing time). The new algorithm also has a more realistic definition of source altitude that accounts for Earth oblateness (this can become important for sources that are hundreds of kilometers away from the network). In addition, the new algorithm is being applied to analyze computer simulated LMA datasets in order to obtain detailed location/time retrieval error maps for sources in and around the LMA network. These maps will provide a more comprehensive analysis of retrieval errors for LMA than the 1996 study did of LDAR retrieval errors. Finally, we note that the new algorithm can be applied to LDAR, and essentially any other multi-station TWA network that depends on direct line-of-site antenna excitation.

Description: A satellite borne lidar instrument, the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS), is to be launched in late 2002 and will provide continuous profiling of atmospheric clouds and aerosol on a global basis. Data processing algorithms have been developed to provide operational data products in near real time. Basic data products for cloud observations are the height of the top and bottom of single to multiple cloud layers and the lidar calibrated observed backscatter cross section up to the level of signal attenuation. In addition the optical depth and vertical profile of visible extinction cross section of many transmissive cloud layers and most haze layers are to be derived. The optical thickness is derivable in some cases from the attenuation of the molecular scattering below cloud base. In other cases an assumption of the scattering phase function is required. In both cases a estimated correction for multiple scattering is required. The data processing algorithms have been tested in part from aircraft measurements used to simulated satellite data. The GLAS lidar observations will be made from an orbit that will allow inter comparison with all other existing satellite cloud measurements.

Description: NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation radar (PR) derived rainfall information will be used to estimate the four-dimensional structure of global monthly latent heating and rainfall profiles over the global tropics from December 1997 to November 2000. Rainfall, latent heating and radar reflectivity structures between El Nino (DJF 1997-98) and La Nina (DJF 1998-99) will be examined and compared. The seasonal variation of heating over various geographic locations (i.e., oceanic vs continental, Indian ocean vs west Pacific, Africa vs S. America) will also be analyzed. In addition, the relationship between rainfall, latent heating (maximum heating level), radar reflectivity and SST is examined and will be presented in the meeting. The impact of random error and bias in stratiform percentage estimates from PR on latent heating profiles is studied and will also be presented in the meeting. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model is being used to simulate various mesoscale convective systems that developed in different geographic locations. Specifically, the model estimated rainfall, radar reflectivity and latent heating profiles will be compared to observational data collected from TRMM field campaigns over the South China Sea in 1998 (SCSMEX), Brazil in 1999 (TRMM-LBA), and the central Pacific in 1999 (KWAJEX). Sounding diagnosed heating budgets and radar reflectivity from these experiments can provide the means to validate (heating product) as well as improve the GCE model.

Description: Clouds strongly modulate radiative transfer processes in the Earth's atmosphere. Studies, which simulate bulk properties of clouds, such as absorption, require methods that accurately account for multiple scattering among individual cloud particles. Multiple scattering processes are well described by MIE-theory, if interacting particles have a spherical shape. This is a good assumption for water droplets. Thus, simulations for water clouds (especially for interactions with solar radiation) usually apply readily available MIE-codes. The presence of different drop-sizes, however, necessitates repetitive calculations for many sizes. The usual representation by a few sizes is likely to miss contributions from densely distributed, sharp resonances. Despite their usually narrow width, integrated over the entire size-spectrum of a cloud droplet distribution, the impact of missed resonances could add up. The consideration of these resonances tends to increase cloud extinction and cloud absorption. This mechanism for a larger (than by MIE-methods predicted) solar absorption has the potential to explain observational evidence of larger than predicted cloud absorption at solar wavelengths. The presentation will address the absorption impact of added resonances for typical properties of water clouds (e.g. drop size distributions, drop concentrations and cloud geometry). Special attention will be given to scenarios with observational evidence of law than simulated solar absorption; particularly if simultaneous measurements of cloud micro- and macrophysical properties are available.

Description: Within this decade the internationally organized Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission will take an important step in creating a global precipitation observing system from space. One perspective for understanding the nature of GPM is that it will be a hierarchical system of datastreams beginning with very high caliber combined dual frequency radar/passive microwave (PMW) rain-radiometer retrievals, to high caliber PMW rain-radiometer only retrievals, and then on to blends of the former datastreams with additional lower-caliber PMW-based and IR-based rain retrievals. Within the context of the now emerging global water & energy cycle (GWEC) programs of a number of research agencies throughout the world, GPM serves as a centerpiece space mission for improving our understanding of the global water cycle from a global measurement perspective. One of the salient problems within our current understanding of the global water and energy cycle is determining whether a change in the rate of the water cycle is accompanying changes in climate, e.g., climate warming. As there are a number of ways in which to define a rate-change of the global water cycle, it is not entirely clear as to what constitutes such a determination. This paper presents an overview of the GPM Mission and how its observations can be used within the framework of the oceanic and continental water budget equations to determine whether a given perturbation in precipitation is indicative of an actual rate change in the global water cycle, consistent with required responses in water storage and/or water flux transport processes, or whether it is the natural variability of a fixed rate cycle.

Description: The spatial and temporal intermittence of rainfall causes the averages of satellite observations of rain rate to differ from the "true" average rain rate over any given area and time period, even if the satellite observations are perfectly accurate. The difference of satellite averages based on occasional observation by satellite systems and the continuous-time average of rain rate is referred to as sampling error. In this study, rms sampling error estimates are obtained for average rain rates over boxes 100 km, 200 km, and 500 km on a side, for averaging periods of 1 day, 5 days, and 30 days. The study uses a multi-year, merged radar data product provided by Weather Services International Corp. at a resolution of 2 km in space and 15 min in time, over an area of the central U.S. extending from 35N to 45N in latitude and 100W to 80W in longitude. The intervals between satellite observations are assumed to be equal, and similar In size to what present and future satellite systems are able to provide (from 1 h to 12 h). The sampling error estimates are obtained using a resampling method called "resampling by shifts," and are compared to sampling error estimates proposed by Bell based on earlier work by Laughlin. The resampling estimates are found to scale with areal size and time period as the theory predicts. The dependence on average rain rate and time interval between observations is also similar to what the simple theory suggests.

Description: Global precipitation analysis covering the last few decades and the impact of the new TRMM precipitation observations are discussed. The 20+ year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to explore global and regional variations and trends and is compared to the much shorter TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) tropical data set. The GPCP data set shows no significant trend in precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. Regional trends are also analyzed. A trend pattern that is a combination of both El Nino and La Nina precipitation features is evident in the Goodyear data set. This pattern is related to an increase with time in the number of combined months of El Nino and La Nina during the Goodyear period. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENRON variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The GPCP daily, 1 degree latitude-longitude analysis, which is available from January 1997 to the present is described and the evolution of precipitation patterns on this time scale related to El Nino and La Nina is described. Finally, a TRMM-based Based analysis is described that uses TRMM to calibrate polar-orbit microwave observations from SSM/I and geosynchronous OR observations and merges the various calibrated observations into a final, Baehr resolution map. This TRMM standard product will be available for the entire TRMM period (January Represent). A real-time version of this merged product is being produced and is available at 0.25 degree latitude-longitude resolution over the latitude range from 50 deg. N -50 deg. S. Examples will be shown, including its use in monitoring flood conditions.

Description: In December 2001, a series of cyclonic centers progressed rapidly into Europe from the west and north. The cyclones moved in generally similar directions, along paths separated by few hundreds of kilometers. The advancing cyclones brought the usual sequence of changing wind directions and produced some high speed wind events. We investigate the wind patterns for this month based on analyses derived the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager observations and NCEP analyses. Whereas southwesterlies from the North Atlantic produced moderate temperatures early in the month, strong northerlies and northwesterlies (up to 15 m/s on 20-22 December) produced a drop in daily minimum and maximum temperatures of 18.8 C and 9.9 C, respectively, over a 4 day period (to -18.8 C and -6.8 C, respectively, on December 23 in Torun, Poland). Such low values in December are unprecedented in recent decades, though not for January or February.

Description: Recent satellite observations of ship tracks surprisingly indicate that cloud water decreases with increasing droplet concentrations. However, we find by analyzing detailed simulations of stratocumulus that the reported trend is likely an artifact of sampling, only overcast clouds. The simulations instead show cloud coverage increasing with droplet concentrations, accounting for 25% of cloud albedo increase at moderate droplet concentrations. Our simulations also show that increases in cloud water from drizzle suppression (by increasing droplet concentrations) are favored only at night or at extremely low droplet concentrations, suggesting that the indirect aerosol forcing is overestimated in climate change projections by many general circulation models.

Description: The Optical Transient Detector (OTD) is a space-based instrument specifically designed to detect and locate lightning discharges as it orbits the Earth. This instrument is a scientific payload on the MicroLab-1 satellite that was launched into a low-earth, 70 deg. inclination orbit in April 1995. Given the orbital trajectory of the satellite, most regions of the earth are observed by the OTD instrument more than 400 times during a one year period, and the average duration of each observation is 2 minutes. The OTD instrument optically detects lightning flashes that occur within its 1300x1300 sq km field-of-view during both day and night conditions. A statistical examination of OTD lightning data reveals that nearly 1.4 billion flashes occur annually over the entire earth. This annual flash count translates to an average of 44 +/- 5 lightning flashes (intracloud and cloud-to-ground combined) occurring around the globe every second, which is well below the traditional estimate of 100 flashes per second that was derived in 1925 from world thunder-day records. The range of uncertainty for the OTD global totals represents primarily the uncertainty (and variability) in the flash detection efficiency of the instrument. The OTD measurements have been used to construct lightning climatology maps that demonstrate the geographical and seasonal distribution of lightning activity for the globe. An analysis of this annual lightning distribution confirms that lightning occurs mainly over land areas, with an average land:ocean ratio of 10:1. A dominant Northern Hemisphere summer peak occurs in the annual cycle, and evidence is found for a tropically-driven semiannual cycle.

Description: A key question in the study of the hydrologic cycle is the extent to which surface effects such as soil moisture and snow cover are simply passive elements or whether they can affect the evolution of climate on seasonal and longer time scales. We have constructed ensembles of predictability studies using the NCAR CCM3 in which we compared the relative roles of initial surface and atmospheric conditions over the central and western U.S. in determining the subsequent evolution of soil moisture and of snow cover. We have also made sensitivity studies with exaggerated soil moisture and snow cover anomalies in order to determine the physical processes that may be important. Results from simulations with realistic soil moisture anomalies indicate that internal climate variability may be the strongest factor, with some indication that the initial atmospheric state is also important. The initial state of soil moisture does not appear important, a result that held whether simulations were started in late winter or late spring. Model runs with exaggerated soil moisture reductions (near-desert conditions) showed a much larger effect, with warmer surface temperatures, reduced precipitation, and lower surface pressures; the latter indicating a response of the atmospheric circulation. These results suggest the possibility of a threshold effect in soil moisture, whereby an anomaly must be of a sufficient size before it can have a significant impact on the atmospheric circulation and hence climate. Results from simulations with realistic snow cover anomalies indicate that the time of year can be crucial. When introduced in late winter, these anomalies strongly affected the subsequent evolution of snow cover. When introduced in early winter, however, little or no effect is seen on the subsequent snow cover. Runs with greatly exaggerated initial snow cover indicate that the high reflectively of snow is the most important process by which snow cover cart impact climate, through lower surface temperatures and increased surface pressures. In early winter, the amount of solar radiation is very small and so this albedo effect is inconsequential while in late winter, with the sun higher in the sky and period of daylight longer, the effect is much stronger.

Description: Despite significant advances in the assimilation of TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder/Advanced TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS)/(ATOVS) data over the last decade, there are still many unresolved issues. For example, at several centers, cloud-and land-affected TOVS data are not assimilated. In this study, we show positive impact from the use of cloud cleared and land-affected TOVS data in the NASA Data Assimilation Office's (DAO) Finite Volume Data Assimilation System (fv-DAS). We will discuss how treatment of TOVS data affects the stratosphere and tropopause in the fvDAS. We will also describe the use of TOVS data for land-surface analysis and assimilation and other developments regarding the use of TOVS data at the DAO.

Description: In this study, the NCAR CLM version 2.0 land-surface model was integrated into the NASA/NCAR fvGCM. The CLM was developed collaboratively by an open interagency/university group of scientists and based on well-proven physical parameterizations and numerical schemes that combine the best features of BATS, NCAR-LSM, and IAP94. The CLM design is a one-dimensional point model with 1 vegetation layer, along with sub-grid scale tiles. The features of the CLM include 10-uneven soil layers with water, ice, and temperature states in each soil layer, and five snow layers, with water flow, refreezing, compaction, and aging allowed. In addition, the CLM utilizes two-stream canopy radiative transfer, the Bonan lake model and topographic enhanced streamflow based on TOPMODEL. The DAO fvGCM uses a genuinely conservative Flux-Form Semi-Lagrangian transport algorithm along with terrain- following Lagrangian control-volume vertical coordinates. The physical parameterizations are based on the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM-2). For our purposes, the fvGCM was run at 2 deg x 2.5 deg horizontal resolution with 55 vertical levels. The 10-year climate from the fvGCM with CLM2 was intercompared with the climate from fvGCM with LSM, ECMWF and NCEP. We concluded that the incorporation of CLM2 did not significantly impact the fvGCM climate from that of LSM. The most striking difference was the warm bias in the CLM2 surface skin temperature over desert regions. We determined that the warm bias can be partially attributed to the value of the drag coefficient for the soil under the canopy, which was too small resulting in a decoupling between the ground surface and the canopy. We also discovered that the canopy interception was high compared to observations in the Amazon region. A number of experiments were then performed focused on implementing model improvements. In order to correct the warm bias, the drag coefficient for the soil under the canopy was considered a function of LAI (Leaf Area Index). Analysis of the results revealed that there was a substantial impact, and the warm and dry bias in the CLM2 was significantly reduced. For the interception scheme, the canopy throughfall was increased to allow for more infiltration of precipitation into the soil, resulting in increased low-level moisture and a decrease in the interception loss ratio (canopy evaporation to precipitation).

Description: The global air-sea fluxes of momentum, latent and sensible heat, radiation, and freshwater (precipitation-evaporation) are required for driving Ocean models and validating coupled ocean- atmosphere global models. Wind stress is the major forcing for driving the oceanic circulation, while evaporation is a key component of hydrological cycle and surface heat budget. We have produced a 13.5-year (July 1987-December 2000) dataset containing daily, monthly, and climatological surface fluxes of momentum, latent and sensible heat over the global Oceans from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) radiance easurements. This dataset is called version 2 Goddard Satellite-based Surface Turbulent Fluxes (GSSTF-2). The GSSW-2 has a spatial resolution of 1.0deg x 1.0deg lat-long. In addition, evaporation has been combined with the satellite-retrieved precipitation to produce monthly freshwater fluxes over the global Ocean for the same period. Daily turbulent fluxes are derived from the S S M surface winds and surface air humidity, and 2-m air and sea surface temperatures (SST) of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, using an improved stability-dependent bulk flux algorithm based on the surface layer similarity theory. Hourly fluxes computed from the GSSTF-2 bulk flux algorithm using the observed hourly input variables validate well against those of ten experiments observed by the research ships over the tropical and midlatitude oceans. In addition, daily wind stresses, latent heat fluxes, wind speeds, surface air humidity and SSTs of the GSSTF-2 compare reasonably well with those of the collocated in situ measurements of the ten experiments. The global distributions of 1988-2000 annual- and seasonal-mean turbulent fluxes show reasonable patterns related to the atmospheric general circulation and its seasonal variations. The comparison of zonally-averaged wind stress and latent heat fluxes of the GSSTF-2 with those of other satellite products as well as the NCEPNCAR and ECMWF reanalyses for the annual mean and seasonal variations during 1992-93 will be discussed. .

Description: The variable-resolution stretched-grid (SG) GEOS (Goddard Earth Observing System) GCM has been used for limited ensemble integrations with a relatively coarse, 60 to 100 km, regional resolution over the U.S. The experiments have been run for the 12-year period, 1987-1998, that includes the recent ENSO cycles. Initial conditions 1-2 days apart are used for ensemble members. The goal of the experiments is analyzing the long-term SG-GCM ensemble integrations in terms of their potential in reducing the uncertainties of regional climate simulation while producing realistic mesoscales. The ensemble integration results are analyzed for both prognostic and diagnostic fields. A special attention is devoted to analyzing the variability of precipitation over the U.S. The internal variability of the SG-GCM has been assessed. The ensemble means appear to be closer to the verifying analyses than the individual ensemble members. The ensemble means capture realistic mesoscale patterns, especially those of induced by orography. Two ENSO cycles have been analyzed in terms their impact on the U.S. climate, especially on precipitation. The ability of the SG-GCM simulations to produce regional climate anomalies has been confirmed. However, the optimal size of the ensembles depending on fine regional resolution used, is still to be determined. The SG-GCM ensemble simulations are performed as a preparation or a preliminary stage for the international SGMIP (Stretched-Grid Model Intercomparison Project) that is under way with participation of the major centers and groups employing the SG-approach for regional climate modeling.

Description: The role of convective bursts in the inner core regions of tropical storms has been if interest for many years with respect to their role in intensification. The structure of these convective bursts is best observed in satellite observations, but their structure has also been observed in some of the airborne radar studies over the past decade. Recently, a convective burst was documented during Hurricane Bonnie during NASA's Convection and Moisure Experiment-3 (CAMEX-3, 1998) conducted jointly with NOAA's Hurricane Field Program (Heymsfield et al., 2001). CAMEX-3 involved the NASA ER-2 high-altitude and DC-8 medium altitude aircraft instrumented with a variety of remote sensing instruments. The Bonnie convective burst was suggested to contribute intensification if ots warm core vased on radar measurements provided by the ER-2 Doppler Radar (EDOP). During the 2001 hurricane season, data sets form additional storms were collected during CAMEX-4. This paper documents the internal structure of convective bursts observed by EDOP and supporting measurements during foour storms (Bonnie, 1998; Georges, 1998; Chantal, 2001; Humberto, 2001) with respect to draft intensities, height profiles of reflectivity, location with respect to the storm center, occurence relative to the sotrm evolutjion, and upper level outlflows associated with the burst. These cases will be presented in the poster and will be compared with Bonnie's convective burst whic was associated with a strong subsiding current which appeared to contribute to the storm intensification. For one of the sotrms (Chantal), a very intense convective burst was nearly 100 km east of the low level circulation center and thus was infavorably located for intensifying the storm.

Description: Perhaps the single greatest roadblock to fundamental advances in our understanding of climate variability and climate change is the lack of robust and unbiased long-term global observations of the climate system. Such observations are critical for the identification and diagnosis of climate variations, and provide the constraints necessary for developing and validating climate models. The first generation of reanalysis efforts, by using fixed analysis systems, eliminated the artificial climate signals that occurred in analyses generated at the operational numerical weather prediction centers. These datasets are now widely used by the scientific community in a variety of applications including atmosphere-ocean interactions, seasonal prediction, climate monitoring, the hydrological cycle, and a host of regional and other diagnostic studies. These reanalyses, however, had problems that made them sub-optimal or even unusable for some applications. Perhaps the most serious problem for climate applications was that, while the assimilation system remained fixed, changes in the observing systems did produce spurious changes in the perceived climate. The first generation reanalysis products also exposed problems with physical consistency of the products and the accurate representation of physical processes in the climate system. Examples are bias in the estimates of ocean surface fluxes, and inadequate representation of polar hydrology. In this talk, I will describe some initial plans for a national program on reananlysis. The program is envisioned to be part of an on-going activity to maintain, improve, and reprocess our record of climate observations. I will discuss various issues affecting the quality of reanalyses, with a special focus on those relevant to the ocean.