ALBERT

Description: Anthropogenic aerosols are intricately linked to the climate system and to the hydrologic cycle. The net effect of aerosols is to cool the climate system by reflecting sunlight. Depending on their composition, aerosols can also absorb sunlight in the atmosphere, further cooling the surface but warming the atmosphere in the process. These effects of aerosols on the temperature profile, along with the role of aerosols as cloud condensation nuclei, impact the hydrologic cycle, through changes in cloud cover, cloud properties and precipitation. Unravelling these feedbacks is particularly difficult because aerosols take a multitude of shapes and forms, ranging from desert dust to urban pollution, and because aerosol concentrations vary strongly over time and space. To accurately study aerosol distribution and composition therefore requires continuous observations from satellites, networks of ground-based instruments and dedicated field experiments. Increases in aerosol concentration and changes in their composition, driven by industrialization and an expanding population, may adversely affect the Earth's climate and water supply.

Description: Pulsed thermoelectrically cooled QC-DFB lasers operating at 15.6 micrometers were characterized for spectroscopic gas sensing applications. A new method for wavelength scanning based on repetition rate modulation was developed. A non-wavelength-selective pyroelectric detector was incorporated in the sensor configuration giving the advantage of room-temperature operation and low cost. Absorption lines of CO2 and H2O were observed in ambient air, providing information about the concentration of these species.

Description: A new method for identifying the structure and other characteristics of extreme weather events is introduced and applied to both model simulations and observations. The approach is based on a linear regression model that links daily extreme precipitation amounts for a particular point on the globe to precipitation and related quantities at all other points. We present here some initial results of our analysis of extreme precipitation events over the United States, including how they are influenced by ENSO and various large-scale teleconnection patterns such as the PNA. The results are based on simulations made with the NASA/NCAR AGCM (Lin and Rood 1996). The quality of the simulated climate for the NASA/NCAR AGCM forced with observed SSTs is described in Chang et al. (2001). The runs analyzed here consist of three 20-year runs forced with idealized cold, neutral and warm ENSO SST anomalies (superimposed on the mean seasonal cycle of SST). The idealized warm or cold SST anomalies are fixed throughout each 20- year simulation and consist of the first EOF (+/- 3 standard deviations) of monthly SST data. Comparisons are made with the results obtained from a similar analysis that uses daily NOAA precipitation observations (Higgins et al. 1996) over the United States and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for the period 1949-1998.

Description: The tropics and extratropics are two dynamically distinct regimes. The coupling between these two regimes often defies simple analytical treatment. Progress in understanding of the dynamical interaction between the tropics and extratropics relies on better observational descriptions to guide theoretical development. However, global analyses currently contain significant errors in primary hydrological variables such as precipitation, evaporation, moisture, and clouds, especially in the tropics. Tropical analyses have been shown to be sensitive to parameterized precipitation processes, which are less than perfect, leading to order-one discrepancies between estimates produced by different data assimilation systems. One strategy for improvement is to assimilate rainfall observations to constrain the analysis and reduce uncertainties in variables physically linked to precipitation. At the Data Assimilation Office at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, we have been exploring the use of tropical rain rates derived from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and the Special Sensor Microwave/ Imager (SSM/I) instruments in global data assimilation. Results show that assimilating these data improves not only rainfall and moisture fields but also related climate parameters such as clouds and radiation, as well as the large-scale circulation and short-range forecasts. These studies suggest that assimilation of microwave rainfall observations from space has the potential to significantly improve the quality of 4-D assimilated datasets for climate investigations (Hou et al. 2001). In the next few years, there will be a gradual increase in microwave rain products available from operational and research satellites, culminating to a target constellation of 9 satellites to provide global rain measurements every 3 hours with the proposed Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission in 2007. Continued improvements in assimilation methodology, rainfall error estimates, and model parameterizations are needed to ensure that we derive maximum benefits from these observations.

Description: Data assimilation brings together atmospheric observations and atmospheric models-what we can measure of the atmosphere with how we expect it to behave. NASA's Data Assimilation Office (DAO) sponsors research projects in data reanalysis, which take several years of observational data and analyze them with a fixed assimilation system, to create an improved data set for use in atmospheric studies. Using NCCS computers, one group of NASA researchers employs reanalysis to examine the role of summertime low-level jet (LLJ) winds in regional seasonal climate. Prevailing winds that blow strongly in a fixed direction within a vertically and horizontally confined region of the atmosphere are known as jets. Jets can dominate circulation and have an enormous impact on the weather in a region. Some jets are as famous as they are influential. The jet stream over North America, for instance, is the wind that blows eastward across the continent, bringing weather from the west coast and increasing the speed of airplanes flying to the east coast. The jet stream, while varying in intensity and location, is present in all seasons at the very high altitude of 200-300 millibars - more than 6 miles above Earth's surface.

Description: Kinematic and dynamic analyses for moving bodies are essential to system engineers and designers in the process of design and validations. 3D visualization and motion simulation plus finite element analysis (FEA) give engineers a better way to present ideas and results. Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) system engineering researchers are currently using IGRIP from DELMIA Inc. as a kinematic simulation tool for discrete bodies motion simulations. Although IGRIP is an excellent tool for kinematic simulation with some dynamic analysis capabilities in robotic control, explorations of other alternatives with more powerful dynamic analysis and FEA capabilities are necessary. Kinematics analysis will only examine the displacement, velocity, and acceleration of the mechanism without considering effects from masses of components. With dynamic analysis and FEA, effects such as the forces or torques at the joint due to mass and inertia of components can be identified. With keen market competition, ALGOR Mechanical Event Simulation (MES), MSC visualNastran 4D, Unigraphics Motion+, and Pro/MECHANICA were chosen for explorations. In this study, comparisons between software tools were presented in terms of following categories: graphical user interface (GUI), import capability, tutorial availability, ease of use, kinematic simulation capability, dynamic simulation capability, FEA capability, graphical output, technical support, and cost. Propulsion Test Article (PTA) with Fastrac engine model exported from IGRIP and an office chair mechanism were used as examples for simulations.

Description: The intraseasonal variation (ISV) in the 30-60 day band, also known as Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), has been studied for decades. Madden and Julian showed that the oscillation originated from the western Indian Ocean, propagated eastward, got enhanced over the maritime continent and weakened after passing over the dateline. Composite studies showed evidences of a signal in upper and lower level zonal wind propagating around the globe during an oscillation. Theoretical studies pointed out that the interaction with the warm ocean surface and the coupling with the convective and radiative processes in the atmosphere could manifest the oscillation, which propagates eastward via mutual feedbacks between the wave motions and the cumulus heating. Over tropical South America, no independent 30-60 day oscillation has been reported so far, despite that Amazon is the most distinct tropical convection center over the western hemisphere and the fluxes from its surface of tropical rainforests are close to that from the warm tropical ocean. Liebmann et al. showed a distinct spectral peak of 40-50 day oscillation in outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) over tropical South America and considered that was manifested by the MJO propagation. Nogues-Paegle et al. (2000) focused on a dipole pattern of the OLR anomaly with centers of action over the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and the subtropical plain. They used the regional 10-90 day filtered data and demonstrated this pattern could be represented by the fifth mode of the rotated empirical orthogonal function. Its principal component was further analyzed using the singular spectrum analysis. Their result showed two oscillatory modes with periods of 36-40 days and 22-28 days, of which the former was related to the MJO influence and the latter linked to the remote forcing over southwest of Australia, which produced a wave train propagating southeastward, rounding the southern tip of South America and returning back toward the northeast. The 22-28 day mode has distinct impact on SACZ, responsible for the regional seesaw pattern of alternating dry and wet conditions. In this study we will focus on the 30-60-day spectral band and investigate whether the independent oscillation source over tropical South America is existed. First, we will show the seasonal dependence of the tropical South American ISV in Section 3. Then, the leading principal modes of 30-60 day bandpass filtered 850-hPa velocity potential (VP850) will be computed to distinguish the stationary ISV over tropical South America (SISA) from the propagating MJO in the austral summertime in Section 4. The importance of SISA in representing the regional ISV over South America will be discussed. In Section 5, we will demonstrate the mass oscillation regime of SISA, which is well separated from that of MJO by the Andes, and the convective coupling with rainfall. The dynamical response of SISA and the impact on the South American summer monsoon (SASM) will be presented. Finally, we will give the concluding remarks.

Description: Hydrologists have long speculated that soil moisture information can be used to increase skill in monthly to seasonal forecast systems. For this to be true, though, three conditions must be satisfied: (1) an imposed initial soil moisture anomaly in the forecast system must have some memory, so that it persists into the forecast period; (2) the modeled atmosphere must respond in a predictable way to the persisted anomaly; and (3) the forecast model must correctly represent both the soil moisture memory and the atmospheric response as they occur in nature. In this short paper, we review some recent work at NSIPP (NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project) that addresses all three conditions.

Description: Noting the similarities among the spatial patterns of outgoing longwave radiation among MJO and ENSO, Lau and Chan speculated a possible relationship between the two phenomena. This speculation received a substantial boost in credibility after the 1997-98 El Nino, when MJO activities were found to be substantially enhanced prior to the onset of the warm phase, and clear signals of oceanic Kelvin waves forced by MJO induced anomalous surface wind were detected as possible triggers of ENSO. Yet statistical and modeling studies have so far yielded either nil or at best, very weak relationship between MJO activities and SST. Recently Kessler suggested using an MJO index which includes convective variability in the equatorial central Pacific lead to a more robust MJO-ENSO relationship. Clearly, while MJO might have been instrumental in triggering some El Nino, there are other events that can occur without any MJO trigger.

Description: In this study, we have applied GCM water vapor tracers (WVT) to simulate the North American water cycle. WVTs allow quantitative computation of the geographical source of water for precipitation that occurs anywhere in the model simulation. This can be used to isolate the impact that local surface evaporation has on precipitation, compared to advection and convection. A 15 year 1 deg, 1.25 deg. simulation has been performed with 11 global and 11 North American regional WVTs. Figure 1 shows the source regions of the North American WVTs. When water evaporates from one of these predefined regions, its mass is used as the source for a distinct prognostic variable in the model. This prognostic variable allows the water to be transported and removed (precipitated) from the system in an identical way that occurs to the prognostic specific humidity. Details of the model are outlined by Bosilovich and Schubert (2002) and Bosilovich (2002). Here, we present results pertaining to the onset of the simulated North American monsoon.

Description: The objectives of this study are to (1) develop a better understanding of how observations constrain/impact the MJO in a data assimilation system with the aim of improving the representation of the MJO, and (2) to carry out AGCM predictability/forecast experiments under various observational constraints to assess model errors and sensitivity to initial conditions. Our current focus is on the second objective.

Description: Some 250,000 weather reports are collected by the National Weather Service (NWS) every day. Important measurements are taken by satellites, weather balloons, ground weather stations, airplanes, oceangoing ships, and tethered ocean buoys. Local or global weather models rely on these reports to provide the raw data used as initial conditions for the models to produce a weather prediction.

Description: A portable modular gas sensor for measuring the 13C/12C isotopic ratio in CO2 with a precision of 0.8%(+/-1 sigma) was developed for volcanic gas emission studies. This sensor employed a difference frequency generation (DFG)-based spectroscopic source operating at 4.35 micrometers (approximately 2300 cm-1) in combination with a dual-chamber gas absorption cell. Direct absorption spectroscopy using this specially designed cell permitted rapid comparisons of isotopic ratios of a gas sample and a reference standard for appropriately selected CO2 absorption lines. Special attention was given to minimizing undesirable precision degrading effects, in particular temperature and pressure fluctuations.

Description: Considerable uncertainty surrounds the issue of whether precipitation over the tropical oceans (30 deg N/S) systematically changes with interannual sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies that accompany El Nino (warm) and La Nina (cold) events. Time series of rainfall estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) over the tropical oceans show marked differences with estimates from two TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) passive microwave algorithms. We show that path-integrated attenuation derived from the effects of precipitation on the radar return from the ocean surface exhibits interannual variability that agrees closely with the TMI time series. Further analysis of the frequency distribution of PR (2A25 product) rain rates suggests that the algorithm incorporates the attenuation measurement in a very conservative fashion so as to optimize the instantaneous rain rates. Such an optimization appears to come at the expense of monitoring interannual climate variability.

Description: A workshop on cumulus parameterization took place at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center from December 3-5, 2001. The major objectives of this workshop were (1) to review the problem of representation of moist processes in large-scale models (mesoscale models, Numerical Weather Prediction models and Atmospheric General Circulation Models), (2) to review the state-of-the-art in cumulus parameterization schemes, and (3) to discuss the need for future research and applications. There were a total of 31 presentations and about 100 participants from the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, France and South Korea. The specific presentations and discussions during the workshop are summarized in this paper.

Description: The results presented here show that tropical convection plays a role in each of the three primary processes involved in the in situ formation of tropopause cirrus. First, tropical convection transports moisture from the surface into the upper troposphere. Second, tropical convection excites Rossby waves that transport zonal momentum toward the ITCZ, thereby generating rising motion near the equator. This rising motion helps transport moisture from where it is detrained from convection to the cold-point tropopause. Finally, tropical convection excites vertically propagating tropical waves (e.g. Kelvin waves) that provide one source of large-scale cooling near the cold-point tropopause, leading to tropopause cirrus formation.

Description: We show the comparisons between ground-based measurements of spectrally integrated (300 nm to 380 nm) ultraviolet (UV) irradiance with satellite estimates from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) total ozone and reflectivity data for the whole period of TOMS measurements (1979-2000) over the Meteorological Observatory of Moscow State University (MO MSU), Moscow, Russia. Several aspects of the comparisons are analyzed, including effects of cloudiness, aerosol, and snow cover. Special emphasis is given to the effect of different spatial and temporal averaging of ground-based data when comparing with low-resolution satellite measurements (TOMS footprint area 50-200 sq km). The comparisons in cloudless scenes with different aerosol loading have revealed TOMS irradiance overestimates from +5% to +20%. A-posteriori correction of the TOMS data accounting for boundary layer aerosol absorption (single scattering albedo of 0.92) eliminates the bias for cloud-free conditions. The single scattering albedo was independently verified using CIMEL sun and sky-radiance measurements at MO MSU in September 2001. The mean relative difference between TOMS UV estimates and ground UV measurements mainly lies within 1 10% for both snow-free and snow period with a tendency to TOMS overestimation in snow-free period especially at overcast conditions when the positive bias reaches 15-17%. The analysis of interannual UV variations shows quite similar behavior for both TOMS and ground measurements (correlation coefficient r=0.8). No long-term trend in the annual mean bias was found for both clear-sky and all-sky conditions with snow and without snow. Both TOMS and ground data show positive trend in UV irradiance between 1979 and 2000. The UV trend is attributed to decreases in both cloudiness and aerosol optical thickness during the late 1990's over Moscow region. However, if the analyzed period is extended to include pre-TOMS era (1968-2000 period), no trend in ground UV irradiance is detected.

Description: Satellite instruments provide global maps of surface ultraviolet (UV) irradiance by combining backscattered radiance measurements with radiative transfer models. The models are limited by uncertainties in input parameters of the atmosphere and the surface. We evaluate the effects of possible enhancements of the current Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) surface UV irradiance algorithm focusing on effects of diurnal variation of cloudiness and improved treatment of snow/ice. The emphasis is on comparison between the results of the current (version 1) TOMS UV algorithm and each of the changes proposed. We evaluate different approaches for improved treatment of pixel average cloud attenuation, with and without snow/ice on the ground. In addition to treating clouds based only on the measurements at the local time of the TOMS observations, the results from other satellites and weather assimilation models can be used to estimate attenuation of the incident UV irradiance throughout the day. A new method is proposed to obtain a more realistic treatment of snow covered terrain. The method is based on a statistical relation between UV reflectivity and snow depth. The new method reduced the bias between the TOMS UV estimations and ground-based UV measurements for snow periods. The improved (version 2) algorithm will be applied to re-process the existing TOMS UV data record (since 1978) and to the future satellite sensors (e.g., Quik/TOMS, GOME, OMI on EOS/Aura and Triana/EPIC).

Description: In a companion paper, the temperature dependence of Raman scattering and its influence on the Raman water vapor signal and the lidar equations was examined. New forms of the lidar equation were developed to account for this temperature sensitivity. Here we use those results to derive the temperature dependent forms of the equations for the aerosol scattering ratio, aerosol backscatter coefficient, extinction to backscatter ratio and water vapor mixing ratio. Pertinent analysis examples are presented to illustrate each calculation.

Description: Based on the single-scattering optical properties that are pre-computed using an improve geometric optics method, the bulk mass absorption coefficient, single-scattering albedo, and asymmetry factor of ice particles have been parameterized as a function of the mean effective particle size of a mixture of ice habits. The parameterization has been applied to compute fluxes for sample clouds with various particle size distributions and assumed mixtures of particle habits. Compared to the parameterization for a single habit of hexagonal column, the solar heating of clouds computed with the parameterization for a mixture of habits is smaller due to a smaller cosingle-scattering albedo. Whereas the net downward fluxes at the TOA and surface are larger due to a larger asymmetry factor. The maximum difference in the cloud heating rate is approx. 0.2 C per day, which occurs in clouds with an optical thickness greater than 3 and the solar zenith angle less than 45 degrees. Flux difference is less than 10 W per square meters for the optical thickness ranging from 0.6 to 10 and the entire range of the solar zenith angle. The maximum flux difference is approximately 3%, which occurs around an optical thickness of 1 and at high solar zenith angles.

Description: This paper analyzes the use of Computer Aided Design (CAD) packages at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). It examines the effectiveness of recent efforts to standardize CAD practices across MSFC engineering activities. An assessment of the roles played by management, designers, analysts, and manufacturers in this initiative will be explored. Finally, solutions are presented for better integration of CAD across MSFC in the future.

Description: A case of torrential precipitation process in the Mei-yu front, an Asian monsoon system east to the Tibetan Plateau, is studied with the coupled Penn State University/NCAR MM5 and NASA/GSFC PLACE (Parameterization for Land - Atmosphere - Cloud Exchange) models. Remote and local impacts of water vapor on the location and intensity of Mei-yu precipitation are studied by numerical experiments. Results demonstrate that the water vapor source for this heavy precipitation case in Yangtze river basin is derived mostly from the Bay of Bengal, transported by the southwesterly low-level Jet (LLJ) southeast to the Tibetan Plateau. The moist convection is a critical process in the development and maintenance of the front. The meridional and zonal secondary circulations resulted from Mei-yu condensation heating both act to increase the wind speed in the LLJ. The condensation induced local circulation strengthens the moisture transport in the LLJ, providing a positive feedback to sustain the Mei-yu precipitation system. It is found that local precipitation recycling shifts heavy rain toward the warm side of the Mei-yu front. This shift of rainfall location is due to the pronounced increase of atmospheric moisture and decrease of surface temperature over the warm side of the front.

Description: A number of known techniques for improving cache performance in scientific computations involve the reordering of the iteration space. Some of these reorderings can be considered as coverings of the iteration space with the sets having good surface-to-volume ratio. Use of such sets reduces the number of cache misses in computations of local operators having the iteration space as a domain. First, we derive lower bounds which any algorithm must suffer while computing a local operator on a grid. Then we explore coverings of iteration spaces represented by structured and unstructured grids which allow us to approach these lower bounds. For structured grids we introduce a covering by successive minima tiles of the interference lattice of the grid. We show that the covering has low surface-to-volume ratio and present a computer experiment showing actual reduction of the cache misses achieved by using these tiles. For planar unstructured grids we show existence of a covering which reduces the number of cache misses to the level of structured grids. On the other hand, we present a triangulation of a 3-dimensional cube such that any local operator on the corresponding grid has significantly larger number of cache misses than a similar operator on a structured grid.

Description: The aim of this paper is to report extreme winter/early-spring air temperature (hereinafter temperature) anomalies in mid-latitude Europe, and to discuss the underlying forcing to these interannual fluctuations. Warm advection from the North Atlantic in late winter controls the surface-air temperature, as indicated by the substantial correlation between the speed of the surface southwesterlies over the eastern North Atlantic (quantified by a specific Index Ina) and the 2-meter level air temperatures (hereinafter Ts) over Europe, 45-60 deg N, in winter. In mid-March and subsequently, the correlation drops drastically (quite often it is negative). This change in the relationship between Ts and Ina marks a transition in the control of the surface-air temperature: absorption of insolation replaces the warm advection as the dominant control. This forcing by maritime-air advection in winter was demonstrated in a previous publication, and is re-examined here in conjunction with extreme fluctuations of temperatures in Europe. We analyze here the interannual variability at its extreme by comparing warm-winter/early-spring of 1989/90 with the opposite scenario in 1995/96. For these two December-to-March periods the differences in the monthly mean temperature in Warsaw and Torun, Poland, range above 10 C. Short-term (shorter than a month) fluctuations of the temperature are likewise very strong. We conduct pentad-by-pentad analysis of the surface-maximum air temperature (hereinafter Tmax), in a selected location, examining the dependence on Ina. The increased cloudiness and higher amounts of total precipitable water, corollary effects to the warm low-level advection. in the 1989/90 winter, enhance the positive temperature anomalies. The analysis of the ocean surface winds is based on the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) dataset; ascent rates, and over land wind data are from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF); maps of 2-m temperature, cloud cover and precipitable water are from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis.

Description: The potential role of soil moisture initialization in seasonal forecasting is illustrated through ensembles of simulations with the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) model. For each boreal summer during 1997-2001, we generated two 16-member ensembles of 3-month simulations. The first, "AMIP-style" ensemble establishes the degree to which a perfect prediction of SSTs would contribute to the seasonal prediction of precipitation and temperature over continents. The second ensemble is identical to the first, except that the land surface is also initialized with "realistic" soil moisture contents through the continuous prior application (within GCM simulations leading up to the start of the forecast period) of a daily observational precipitation data set and the associated avoidance of model drift through the scaling of all surface prognostic variables. A comparison of the two ensembles shows that soil moisture initialization has a statistically significant impact on summertime precipitation and temperature over only a handful of continental regions. These regions agree, to first order, with regions that satisfy three conditions: (1) a tendency toward large initial soil moisture anomalies, (2) a strong sensitivity of evaporation to soil moisture, and (3) a strong sensitivity of precipitation to evaporation. The degree to which the initialization improves forecasts relative to observations is mixed, reflecting a critical need for the continued development of model parameterizations and data analysis strategies.

Description: Data from three cloudy days (March 3, 21, 29, 2000) of the ARM Enhanced Shortwave Experiment II (ARESE II) were analyzed. Grand averages of broadband absorptance among three sets of instruments were compared. Fractional solar absorptances were approx. 0.21-0.22 with the exception of March 3 when two sets of instruments gave values smaller by approx. 0.03-0.04. The robustness of these values was investigated by looking into possible sampling problems with the aid of 500 nm spectral fluxes. Grand averages of 500 nm apparent absorptance cover a wide range of values for these three days, namely from a large positive (approx. 0.011) average for March 3, to a small negative (approximately -0.03) for March 21, to near zero (approx. 0.01) for March 29. We present evidence suggesting that a large part of the discrepancies among the three days is due to the different nature of clouds and their non-uniform sampling. Hence, corrections to the grand average broadband absorptance values may be necessary. However, application of the known correction techniques may be precarious due to the sparsity of collocated flux measurements above and below the clouds. Our analysis leads to the conclusion that only March 29 fulfills all requirements for reliable estimates of cloud absorption, that is, the presence of thick, overcast, homogeneous clouds.

Description: This study uses a twenty-three year (1979-2001) satellite-gauge merged community data set to further describe the relationship between El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and precipitation. The globally complete precipitation fields reveal coherent bands of anomalies that extend from the tropics to the polar regions. Also, ENSO-precipitation relationships were analyzed during the six strongest El Ninos from 1979 to 2001. Seasons of evolution, Pre-onset, Onset, Peak, Decay, and Post-decay, were identified based on the strength of the El Nino. Then two simple and independent models, first order harmonic and linear, were fit to the monthly time series of normalized precipitation anomalies for each grid block. The sinusoidal model represents a three-phase evolution of precipitation, either dry-wet-dry or wet-dry-wet. This model is also highly correlated with the evolution of sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. The linear model represents a two-phase evolution of precipitation, either dry-wet or wet-dry. These models combine to account for over 50% of the precipitation variability for over half the globe during El Nino. Most regions, especially away from the Equator, favor the linear model. Areas that show the largest trend from dry to wet are southeastern Australia, eastern Indian Ocean, southern Japan, and off the coast of Peru. The northern tropical Pacific and Southeast Asia show the opposite trend.

Description: The fixed-lag Kalman smoother (FLKS) has been proposed as a framework to construct data assimilation procedures capable of producing high-quality climate research datasets. Fixed-lag Kalman smoother-based systems, referred to as retrospective data assimilation systems, are an extension to three-dimensional filtering procedures with the added capability of incorporating observations not only in the past and present time of the estimate, but also at future times. A variety of simplifications are necessary to render retrospective assimilation procedures practical. In this article, we present an FLKS-based retrospective data assimilation system implementation for the Goddard Earth Observing System (GOES) Data Assimilation System (DAS). The practicality of this implementation comes from the practicality of its underlying (filter) analysis system, i.e., the physical-space statistical analysis system (PSAS). The behavior of two schemes is studied here. The first retrospective analysis (RA) scheme is designed simply to update the regular PSAS analyses with observations available at times ahead of the regular analysis times. Although our GEOS DAS implementation is general, results are only presented for when observations 6-hours ahead of the analysis time are used to update the PSAS analyses and thereby to calculate the so-called lag-1 retrospective analyses. Consistency tests for this RA scheme show that the lag-1 retrospective analyses indeed have better 6-hour predictive skills than the predictions from the regular analyses. This motivates the introduction of the second retrospective analysis scheme which, at each analysis time, uses the 6-hour retrospective analysis to replace the first-guess normally used in the PSAS analysis, and therefore allows the calculation of a revised (filter) PSAS analysis. Since in this scheme the lag-1 retrospective analyses influence the filter results, this procedure is referred to as the retrospective-based iterative analysis (RIA) scheme. Results from the RIA scheme indicate its potential for improving the overall quality of the assimilation.

Description: The implications of using different control variables for the analysis of moisture observations in a global atmospheric data assimilation system are investigated. A moisture analysis based on either mixing ratio or specific humidity is prone to large extrapolation errors, due to the high variability in space and time of these parameters and to the difficulties in modeling their error covariances. Using the logarithm of specific humidity does not alleviate these problems, and has the further disadvantage that very dry background estimates cannot be effectively corrected by observations. Relative humidity is a better choice from a statistical point of view, because this field is spatially and temporally more coherent and error statistics are therefore easier to obtain. If, however, the analysis is designed to preserve relative humidity in the absence of moisture observations, then the analyzed specific humidity field depends entirely on analyzed temperature changes. If the model has a cool bias in the stratosphere this will lead to an unstable accumulation of excess moisture there. A pseudo-relative humidity can be defined by scaling the mixing ratio by the background saturation mixing ratio. A univariate pseudo-relative humidity analysis will preserve the specific humidity field in the absence of moisture observations. A pseudorelative humidity analysis is shown to be equivalent to a mixing ratio analysis with flow-dependent covariances. In the presence of multivariate (temperature-moisture) observations it produces analyzed relative humidity values that are nearly identical to those produced by a relative humidity analysis. Based on a time series analysis of radiosonde observed-minus-background differences it appears to be more justifiable to neglect specific humidity-temperature correlations (in a univariate pseudo-relative humidity analysis) than to neglect relative humidity-temperature correlations (in a univariate relative humidity analysis). A pseudo-relative humidity analysis is easily implemented in an existing moisture analysis system, by simply scaling observed-minus background moisture residuals prior to solving the analysis equation, and rescaling the analyzed increments afterward.

Description: In this paper, we briefly describe our efforts to develop complex simulation systems. We focus first on four key infrastructure items: enterprise computational services, simulation synthesis, geometry modeling and mesh generation, and a fluid flow solver for arbitrary meshes. We conclude by presenting three diverse applications developed using these technologies.

Description: Surface-air temperatures measured in winter at 3 meteorological stations in central Europe rise substantially for most of the second-half of the 20th century. This means shorter winter, and longer growing season, which has positive implications for regional agriculture. However, these positive trends stopped in winter of 1996, and for the recent 7 years no further climatic amelioration is reported.

Description: In this study, a technique for estimating vertical profiles of precipitation from multifrequency, multiresolution active and passive microwave observations is investigated using both simulated and airborne data. The technique is applicable to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite multi-frequency active and passive observations. These observations are characterized by various spatial and sampling resolutions. This makes the retrieval problem mathematically more difficult and ill-determined because the quality of information decreases with decreasing resolution. A model that, given reflectivity profiles and a small set of parameters (including the cloud water content, the intercept drop size distribution, and a variable describing the frozen hydrometeor properties), simulates high-resolution brightness temperatures is used. The high-resolution simulated brightness temperatures are convolved at the real sensor resolution. An optimal estimation procedure is used to minimize the differences between simulated and observed brightness temperatures. The retrieval technique is investigated using cloud model synthetic and airborne data from the Fourth Convection And Moisture Experiment. Simulated high-resolution brightness temperatures and reflectivities and airborne observation strong are convolved at the resolution of the TRMM instruments and retrievals are performed and analyzed relative to the reference data used in observations synthesis. An illustration of the possible use of the technique in satellite rainfall estimation is presented through an application to TRMM data. The study suggests improvements in combined active and passive retrievals even when the instruments resolutions are significantly different. Future work needs to better quantify the retrievals performance, especially in connection with satellite applications, and the uncertainty of the models used in retrieval.

Description: The GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS; GEWEX is the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment) was organized to promote development of improved parameterizations of cloud systems for use in climate and numerical weather prediction models, with an emphasis on the climate applications. The strategy of GCSS is to use two distinct kinds of models to analyze and understand observations of the behavior of several different types of clouds systems. Cloud-system-resolving models (CSRMs) have high enough spatial and temporal resolutions to represent individual cloud elements, but cover a wide enough range of space and time scales to permit statistical analysis of simulated cloud systems. Results from CSRMs are compared with detailed observations, representing specific cases based on field experiments, and also with statistical composites obtained from satellite and meteorological analyses. Single-column models (SCMs) are the surgically extracted column physics of atmospheric general circulation models. SCMs are used to test cloud parameterizations in an un-coupled mode, by comparison with field data and statistical composites. In the original GCSS strategy, data is collected in various field programs and provided to the CSRM Community, which uses the data to "certify" the CSRMs as reliable tools for the simulation of particular cloud regimes, and then uses the CSRMs to develop parameterizations, which are provided to the GCM Community. We report here the results of a re-thinking of the scientific strategy of GCSS, which takes into account the practical issues that arise in confronting models with data. The main elements of the proposed new strategy are a more active role for the large-scale modeling community, and an explicit recognition of the importance of data integration.

Description: New state of the art methodology is described to analyze AIRS/AMSU/HSB data in the presence of multiple cloud formations. The methodology forms the basis for the AIRS Science Team algorithm which will be used to analyze AIRS/AMSU/HSB data on EOS Aqua. The cloud clearing methodology requires no knowledge of the spectral properties of the clouds. The basic retrieval methodology is general and extracts the maximum information from the radiances, consistent with the channel noise covariance matrix. The retrieval methodology minimizes the dependence of the solution on the first guess field and the first guess error characteristics. Results are shown for AIRS Science Team simulation studies with multiple cloud formations. These simulation studies imply that clear column radiances can be reconstructed under partial cloud cover with an accuracy comparable to single spot channel noise in the temperature and water vapor sounding regions, temperature soundings can be produced under partial cloud cover with RMS errors on the order of, or better than, 1deg K in 1 km thick layers from the surface to 700 mb, 1 km layers from 700 mb to 300 mb, 3 km layers from 300 mb to 30 mb, and 5 km layers from 30 mb to 1 mb, and moisture profiles can be obtained with an accuracy better than 20% absolute errors in 1 km layers from the surface to nearly 200 mb.

Description: Over tropical land regions, rain rate maxima in mesoscale convective systems revealed by the Precipitation Radar (PR) flown on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite are found to correspond to thunderstorms, i.e., Cbs. These Cbs are reflected as minima in the 85 GHz brightness temperature, T85, observed by the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) radiometer. Because the magnitude of TMI observations do not discriminate satisfactorily convective and stratiform rain, we developed here a different TMI discrimination method. In this method, two types of Cbs, strong and weak, are inferred from the Laplacian of T85 at minima. Then, to retrieve rain rate, where T85 is less than 270 K, a weak (background) rain rate is deduced using T85 observations. Furthermore, over a circular area of 10 km radius centered at the location of each T85 minimum, an additional Cb component of rain rate is added to the background rain rate. This Cb component of rain rate is estimated with the help of (T19-T37) and T85 observations. Initially, our algorithm is calibrated with the PR rain rate measurements from 20 MCS rain events. After calibration, this method is applied to TMI data taken from several tropical land regions. With the help of the PR observations, we show that the spatial distribution and intensity of rain rate over land estimated from our algorithm are better than those given by the current TMI-Version-5 Algorithm. For this reason, our algorithm may be used to improve the current state of rain retrievals on land.

Description: The Project for Intercomparison of Land Surface Parameterization Schemes (PILPS) Phase 2(e) showed that in cold regions the annual runoff production in Land Surface Schemes (LSSs) is closely related to the maximum snow accumulation, which in turn is controlled in large part by winter sublimation. To help further explain the relationship between snow cover, turbulent exchanges and runoff production, a simple equivalent model-(SEM) was devised to reproduce the seasonal and annual fluxes simulated by 13 LSSs that participated in PILPS Phase 2(e). The design of the SEM relates the annual partitioning of precipitation and energy in the LSSs to three primary parameters: snow albedo, effective aerodynamic resistance and evaporation efficiency. Isolation of each of the parameters showed that the annual runoff production was most sensitive to the aerodynamic resistance. The SEM was somewhat successful in reproducing the observed LSS response to a decrease in shortwave radiation and changes in wind speed forcings. SEM parameters derived from the reduced shortwave forcings suggested that increased winter stability suppressed turbulent heat fluxes over snow. Because winter sensible heat fluxes were largely negative, reductions in winter shortwave radiation imply an increase in annual average sensible heat.

Description: Urban heat islands (UHIs) are caused by the heat-retaining properties of surfaces usually found in urban cities like asphalt and concrete. The UHI can typically be observed on the evening TV weather map as warmer temperatures over the downtown of major cities and cooler temperatures in the suburbs and surrounding rural areas. The UHI has now become a widely acknowledged, observed, and researched phenomenon because of its broad environmental and societal implications. Interest in the UHI will intensify in the future as existing urban areas expand and rural areas urbanize. By the year 2025, more than 60% of the world's population will live in cities, with higher percentages expected in developed nations. The urban growth rate in the United States, for example, is estimated to be 12.5%, and the recent 2000 Census found that more than 80% of the population currently lives in urban areas. Furthermore, the U.S. population is not only growing but is tending to concentrate more in urban areas within the environmentally sensitive coastal zones. Urban growth creates unique and often contentious issues for policymakers related to land use zoning, transportation planning, agricultural production, housing and development, pollution, and natural resources protection. Urban expansion and its associated UHIs also have measurable impacts on weather and climate processes. The UHI has been documented to affect local and regional temperature, wind patterns, and air quality.

Description: The simulations of climatology and response of the South American summer monsoon (SASM) to the 1997/98 El Nino are investigated using six atmospheric general circulation models. Results show all models simulate the large-scale features of the SASM reasonably well. However, both stationary and seasonal components of the surface pressure are overestimated, resulting in an excessively strong SASM in the model climatology. The low-level northwesterly jet over eastern foothills of the Andes is not well resolved because of the coarse resolution of the models. Large rainfall simulation biases are found in association with the Andes and the Atlantic ITCZ, indicating model problems in handling steep mountains and parameterization of convective processes. The simulation of the 1997/98 El Nino impact on SASM is examined based on an ensemble of ten two-year (September 1996 - August 1998) integration. Results show that most models can simulate the large-scale tropospheric warming response over the tropical central Pacific, including the dynamic response of Rossby wave propagation of the Pacific-South America (PSA) pattern that influences remote areas. Deficiencies are found in simulating the regional impacts over South America. Model simulation fails to capture the southeastward expansion of anomalously warm tropospheric air. As a result, the upper tropospheric anomalous high over the subtropical Andes is less pronounced, and the enhancement of subtropical westerly jet is displaced 5deg-10deg equatorward compared to the observed. Over the Amazon basin, the shift of Walker cell induced by El Nino is not well represented, showing anomalous easterlies in both upper and lower troposphere.

Description: Code certification is a lightweight approach to formally demonstrate software quality. It concentrates on aspects of software quality that can be defined and formalized via properties, e.g., operator safety or memory safety. Its basic idea is to require code producers to provide formal proofs that their code satisfies these quality properties. The proofs serve as certificates which can be checked independently, by the code consumer or by certification authorities, e.g., the FAA. It is the idea underlying such approaches as proof-carrying code [6]. Code certification can be viewed as a more practical version of traditional Hoare-style program verification. The properties to be verified are fairly simple and regular so that it is often possible to use an automated theorem prover to automatically discharge all emerging proof obligations. Usually, however, the programmer must still splice auxiliary annotations (e.g., loop invariants) into the program to facilitate the proofs. For complex properties or larger programs this quickly becomes the limiting factor for the applicability of current certification approaches.

Description: When from the southwest, North Atlantic ocean surface winds are known to bring warm and moist airmasses into central Europe in winter. By tracing backward trajectories from western Europe, we establish that these airmasses originate in the southwestern North Atlantic, in the very warm regions of the Gulf Stream. Over the eastern North Atlantic, Lt the gateway to Europe, the ocean-surface winds changed directions in the second half of the XXth century, those from the northwest and from the southeast becoming so infrequent, that the direction from the southwest became even more dominant. For the January-to-March period, the strength of south-westerlies in this region, as well as in the source region, shows in the years 1948-1995 a significant increase, above 0.2 m/sec/ decade. Based on the sensitivity of the surface temperature in Europe, slightly more than 1 C for a 1m/sec increase in the southwesterly wind, found in the previous studies, the trend in the warm advection accounts for a large part of the warming in Europe established for this period in several reports. However, for the most recent years, 1996-2001, the positive trend in the southwesterly advection appears to be is broken, which is consistent with unseasonally cold events reported in Europe in those winters. This study had, some bearing on evaluating the respective roles of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Greenhouse Gas Global warming, GGG, in the strong winter warming observed for about half a century over the northern-latitude continents. Changes in the ocean-surface temperatures induced by GGG may have produced the dominant southwesterly direction of the North Atlantic winds. However, this implies a monotonically (apart from inherent interannual variability) increasing advection, and if the break in the trend which we observe after 1995 persists, this mechanism is counter-indicated. The 1948-1995 trend in the south-westerlies could then be considered to a large degree attributable to the North Atlantic Oscillation.

Description: The 17-year (1982-1998) trend in surface temperature shows a general cooling over the Antarctic continent, warming of the sea ice zone, with moderate changes over the oceans. Warming of the peripheral seas is associated with negative trends in the regional sea ice extent. Effects of the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode (SAM) and the extrapolar Southern Oscillation (SO) on surface temperature are quantified through regression analysis. Positive polarities of the SAM are associated with cold anomalies over most of Antarctica, with the most notable exception of the Antarctic Peninsula. Positive temperature anomalies and ice edge retreat in the Pacific sector are associated with El Nino episodes. Over the past two decades, the drift towards high polarity in the SAM and negative polarity in the SO indices couple to produce a spatial pattern with warmer temperatures in the Antarctic Peninsula and peripheral seas, and cooler temperatures over much of East Antarctica.

Description: Validation of satellite remote-sensing methods for estimating rainfall against rain-gauge data is attractive because of the direct nature of the rain-gauge measurements. Comparisons of satellite estimates to rain-gauge data are difficult, however, because of the extreme variability of rain and the fact that satellites view large areas over a short time while rain gauges monitor small areas continuously. In this paper, a statistical model of rainfall variability developed for studies of sampling error in averages of satellite data is used to examine the impact of spatial and temporal averaging of satellite and gauge data on intercomparison results. The model parameters were derived from radar observations of rain, but the model appears to capture many of the characteristics of rain-gauge data as well. The model predicts that many months of data from areas containing a few gauges are required to validate satellite estimates over the areas, and that the areas should be of the order of several hundred km in diameter. Over gauge arrays of sufficiently high density, the optimal areas and averaging times are reduced. The possibility of using time-weighted averages of gauge data is explored.

Description: A NOAA P-3 instrumented aircraft observed an intense, fast-moving narrow cold frontal Farmhand as it approached the Pacific Northwest coast on 19 February 2001 during the Pacific Coastal Jets Experiment. Pseudo-dual-Doppler analyses performed on the airborne Doppler radar data while the frontal system was well offshore indicated that a narrow ribbon of very high radar reflectively convective cores characterized the Farmhand at low levels with echo tops to approximately 4-5 km. The NCFR exhibited gaps in its narrow ribbon of high reflectively, probably as a result of hydrodynamic instability all no its advancing cold pool leading edge. In contrast to some earlier studies of cold frontal rainbands, density current theory described well the motion of the overall front. The character of the updraft structure associated with the heavy rainfall at its leading edge varied across the gap region. The vertical shear of the cross-frontal low-level ambient flow exerted a strong influence on the updraft character, consistent with theoretical arguments developed for squall lines describing the balance of vorticity at the leading edge. In short regions south of the gaps the vertical wind shear was strongest with the updrafts and rain shafts more intense, narrower, and more erect or even downshear tilted. North of the gaps the wind shear weakened with less intense Dihedrals which tilted upshear with a broader band of rainfall. Simulations using a nonhydrostatic mesoscale nested grid model are used to investigate the gap regions, particularly the balance of cold pool induced to pre-frontal ambient shears at the leading edge. Observations confirm the model results that the updraft character depends on the balance of vorticity at the leading edge. Downshear-tilted updrafts imply that convection south of the gap regions would weaken with time relative to the frontal segments north of the gaps since inflow air would be affected by passage through the heavy rain region before ascent, suggesting a mechanism for gap filling.

Description: The sensitivities to surface friction and the Coriolis parameter in tropical cyclogenesis are studied using an axisymmetric version of the Goddard cloud ensemble model. Our experiments demonstrate that tropical cyclogenesis can still occur without surface friction. However, the resulting tropical cyclone has very unrealistic structure. Surface friction plays an important role of giving the tropical cyclones their observed smaller size and diminished intensity. Sensitivity of the cyclogenesis process to surface friction. in terms of kinetic energy growth, has different signs in different phases of the tropical cyclone. Contrary to the notion of Ekman pumping efficiency, which implies a preference for the highest Coriolis parameter in the growth rate if all other parameters are unchanged, our experiments show no such preference.

Description: The summer climate of southern Mexico and Central America is characterized by a mid summer drought (MSD), where rainfall is reduced by 40% in July as compared to June and September. A mid-summer reduction in the climatological number of eastern Pacific tropical cyclones has also been noted. Little is understood about the climatology and interannual variability of these minima. The present study uses a novel approach to quantify the bimodal distribution of summertime rainfall for the globe and finds that this feature of the annual cycle is most extreme over Pan America and adjacent oceans. One dominant interannual signal in this region occurs the summer before a strong winter El Nino/Southern Oscillation ENSO. Before El Nino events the region is dry, the MSD is strong and centered over the ocean, and the mid-summer minimum in tropical cyclone frequency is most pronounced. This is significantly different from Neutral cases (non-El Nino and non-La Nina) when the MSD is weak and positioned over the land bridge. The MSD is highly variable for La Nina years, and there is not an obvious mid-summer minimum in the number of tropical cyclones.

Description: Marketed as the "Software of the Future," Optimal Engineering Systems P.I. EXPERT(TM) technology offers statistical process control and optimization techniques that are critical to businesses looking to restructure or accelerate operations in order to gain a competitive edge. Kennedy Space Center granted Optimal Engineering Systems the funding and aid necessary to develop a prototype of the process monitoring and improvement software. Completion of this prototype demonstrated that it was possible to integrate traditional statistical quality assurance tools with robust optimization techniques in a user- friendly format that is visually compelling. Using an expert system knowledge base, the software allows the user to determine objectives, capture constraints and out-of-control processes, predict results, and compute optimal process settings.

Description: GridPro is an automatic, object-oriented, multi-block grid generator that provides ease of use, high quality, rapid production, and parametric design. When paired with a 3-D graphic user interface called az- Manager, GridPro presents users with an extremely efficient, interactive capability to build topology, edit surfaces, set computational fluid dynamics (CFD) boundary conditions, and view multi-block grids. The origins of the GridPro technology date back to a 1989 SBIR contract with NASA's Glenn Research Center, in which Glenn was seeking a multi-block grid generation program that would run automatically upon identifying a pattern of grid blocks supplied by a user. The technology is currently used in many engineering fields, including aerospace, turbo- machinery, automotive, and chemical industries.

Description: This report describes both the research techniques and the application results from the analysis of safety-critical software anomalies recorded post-launch on seven spacecraft: Galileo, Mars Global Surveyor, Cassini/Huygens, Deep Space 1, Mars Climate Orbiter, Mars Polar Lander, and Stardust.

Description: LandForm(R) VisualFlight(R) blends the power of a geographic information system with the speed of a flight simulator to transform a user's desktop computer into a "virtual cockpit." The software product, which is fully compatible with all Microsoft(R) Windows(R) operating systems, provides distributed, real-time three-dimensional flight visualization over a host of networks. From a desktop, a user can immediately obtain a cockpit view, a chase-plane view, or an airborne tracker view. A customizable display also allows the user to overlay various flight parameters, including latitude, longitude, altitude, pitch, roll, and heading information. Rapid Imaging Software sought assistance from NASA, and the VisualFlight technology came to fruition under a Phase II SBIR contract with Johnson Space Center in 1998. Three years later, on December 13, 2001, Ken Ham successfully flew NASA's X-38 spacecraft from a remote, ground-based cockpit using LandForm VisualFlight as part of his primary situation awareness display in a flight test at Edwards Air Force Base, California.

Description: Ames Research Center granted Reality Capture Technologies (RCT), Inc., a license to further develop NASA's Mars Map software platform. The company incorporated NASA#s innovation into software that uses the Virtual Plant Model (VPM)(TM) to structure, modify, and implement the construction sites of industrial facilities, as well as develop, validate, and train operators on procedures. The VPM orchestrates the exchange of information between engineering, production, and business transaction systems. This enables users to simulate, control, and optimize work processes while increasing the reliability of critical business decisions. Engineers can complete the construction process and test various aspects of it in virtual reality before building the actual structure. With virtual access to and simulation of the construction site, project personnel can manage, access control, and respond to changes on complex constructions more effectively. Engineers can also create operating procedures, training, and documentation. Virtual Plant Model(TM) is a trademark of Reality Capture Technologies, Inc.

Description: SINDA/FLUINT, the NASA standard software system for thermohydraulic analysis, provides computational simulation of interacting thermal and fluid effects in designs modeled as heat transfer and fluid flow networks. The product saves time and money by making the user's design process faster and easier, and allowing the user to gain a better understanding of complex systems. The code is completely extensible, allowing the user to choose the features, accuracy and approximation levels, and outputs. Users can also add their own customizations as needed to handle unique design tasks or to automate repetitive tasks. Applications for SINDA/FLUINT include the pharmaceutical, petrochemical, biomedical, electronics, and energy industries. The system has been used to simulate nuclear reactors, windshield wipers, and human windpipes. In the automotive industry, it simulates the transient liquid/vapor flows within air conditioning systems.

Description: A software system that uses artificial intelligence techniques to help with complex Space Shuttle scheduling at Kennedy Space Center is commercially available. Stottler Henke Associates, Inc.(SHAI), is marketing its automatic scheduling system, the Automated Manifest Planner (AMP), to industries that must plan and project changes many different times before the tasks are executed. The system creates optimal schedules while reducing manpower costs. Using information entered into the system by expert planners, the system automatically makes scheduling decisions based upon resource limitations and other constraints. It provides a constraint authoring system for adding other constraints to the scheduling process as needed. AMP is adaptable to assist with a variety of complex scheduling problems in manufacturing, transportation, business, architecture, and construction. AMP can benefit vehicle assembly plants, batch processing plants, semiconductor manufacturing, printing and textiles, surface and underground mining operations, and maintenance shops. For most of SHAI's commercial sales, the company obtains a service contract to customize AMP to a specific domain and then issues the customer a user license.

Description: MarketMiner(R) Products, a line of automated marketing analysis tools manufactured by MarketMiner, Inc., can benefit organizations that perform significant amounts of direct marketing. MarketMiner received a Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) contract from NASA's Johnson Space Center to develop the software as a data modeling tool for space mission applications. The technology was then built into the company current products to provide decision support for business and marketing applications. With the tool, users gain valuable information about customers and prospects from existing data in order to increase sales and profitability. MarketMiner(R) is a registered trademark of MarketMiner, Inc.

Description: The autoconversion rate is a key process for the formation of precipitation in warm clouds. In climate models, physical processes such as autoconversion rate, which are calculated from grid mean values, are biased, because they do not take subgrid variability into account. Recently, statistical cloud schemes have been introduced in large-scale models to account for partially cloud-covered grid boxes. However, these schemes do not include the in-cloud variability in their parameterizations. In this paper, a new statistically based autoconversion rate considering the in-cloud variability is introduced and tested in three cases using the Canadian Single Column Model (SCM) of the global climate model. The results show that the new autoconversion rate improves the model simulation, especially in terms of liquid water path in all three case studies.

Description: The primary objective of this project was to develop a framework and system architecture for integrating program and project management tools that may be applied consistently throughout Kennedy Space Center (KSC) to optimize planning, cost estimating, risk management, and project control. Project management methodology used in building interactive systems to accommodate the needs of the project managers is applied as a key component in assessing the usefulness and applicability of the framework and tools developed. Research for the project included investigation and analysis of industrial practices, KSC standards, policies, and techniques, Systems Management Office (SMO) personnel, and other documented experiences of project management experts. In addition, this project documents best practices derived from the literature as well as new or developing project management models, practices, and techniques.

Description: The electronic nose is a method of using several sensors in conjunction to identify an unknown gas. Statistical analysis has shown that a large number of training exposures need to be performed in order to get a model that can be depended on. The number of training exposures needed is on the order of 1000. Data acquisition from the noses are generally automatic and built in. The gas generation equipment consists of a Miller-Nelson (MN) flow/temperature/humidity controller and a Kin-Tek (KT) trace gas generator. This equipment has been controlled in the past by an old data acquisition and control system. The new system will use new control boards and an easy graphical user interface. The programming for this is in the LabVIEW G programming language. A language easy for the user to make modifications to. This paper details some of the issues in selecting the components and programming the connections. It is not a primer on LabVIEW programming, a separate CD is being delivered with website files to teach that.

Description: A recently developed technique called cloud slicing used for deriving upper tropospheric ozone from the Nimbus 7 Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) instrument combined together with temperature-humidity and infrared radiometer (THIR) is no longer applicable to the Earth Probe TOMS (EPTOMS) because EPTOMS does not have an instrument to measure cloud top temperatures. For continuing monitoring of tropospheric ozone between 200-500hPa and testing the feasibility of this technique across spacecrafts, EPTOMS data are co-located in time and space with the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-8 infrared data for 2001 and early 2002, covering most of North and South America (45S-45N and 120W-30W). The maximum column amounts for the mid-latitudinal sites of the northern hemisphere are found in the March-May season. For the mid-latitudinal sites of the southern hemisphere, the highest column amounts are found in the September-November season, although overall seasonal variability is smaller than those of the northern hemisphere. The tropical sites show the weakest seasonal variability compared to higher latitudes. The derived results for selected sites are cross validated qualitatively with the seasonality of ozonesonde observations and the results from THIR analyses over the 1979-1984 time period due to the lack of available ozonesonde measurements to study sites for 2001. These comparisons show a reasonably good agreement among THIR, ozonesonde observations, and cloud slicing-derived column ozone. With very limited co-located EPTOMS/GOES data sets, the cloud slicing technique is still viable to derive the upper tropospheric column ozone. Two new variant approaches, High-Low (HL) cloud slicing and ozone profile derivation from cloud slicing are introduced to estimate column ozone amounts using the entire cloud information in the troposphere.

Description: The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) program is a mission to measure precipitation from space, and is a similar but much expanded mission of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission. Its scope is not limited to scientific research, but includes practical and operational applications such as weather forecasting and water resource management. To meet the requirements of operational use, the GPM uses multiple low-orbiting satellites to increase the sampling frequency and to create three-hourly global rain maps that will be delivered to the world in quasi-real time. A dual-frequency radar (DPR) will be installed on the primary satellite that plays an important role in the whole mission. The DPR will realize measurement of precipitation with high sensitivity, high precision and high resolutions. This paper describes an outline of the GPM program, its issues and the roles and development of the DPR.

Description: NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) is adapting current data networking technologies to fly on future spaceflight missions. The benefits of using commercially based networking standards and protocols have been widely discussed and are expected to include reduction in overall mission cost, shortened integration and test (I&T) schedules, increased operations flexibility, and hardware and software upgradeability/scalability with developments ongoing in the commercial world. The networking effort is a comprehensive one encompassing missions ranging from small University Explorer (UNEX) class spacecraft to large observatories such as the Next Generation Space Telescope (NGST). Mission aspects such as flight hardware and software, ground station hardware and software, operations, RF communications, and security (physical and electronic) are all being addressed to ensure a complete end-to-end system solution. One of the current networking development efforts at GSFC is the SpaceLAN (Spacecraft Local Area Network) project, development of a space-qualifiable Ethernet network. To this end we have purchased an IEEE 802.3-compatible 10/100/1000 Media Access Control (MAC) layer Intellectual Property (IP) core and are designing a network node interface (NNI) and associated network components such as a switch. These systems will ultimately allow the replacement of the typical MIL-STD-1553/1773 and custom interfaces that inhabit most spacecraft. In this paper we will describe our current Ethernet NNI development along with a novel new space qualified physical layer that will be used in place of the standard interfaces. We will outline our plans for development of space qualified network components that will allow future spacecraft to operate in significant radiation environments while using a single onboard network for reliable commanding and data transfer. There will be a brief discussion of some issues surrounding system implications of a flight Ethernet. Finally, we will show an onboard network architecture for a proposed new mission using Ethernet for science data transport.

Description: ENSCO, Inc., developed the Meteorological and Atmospheric Real-time Safety Support (MARSS) system for real-time assessment of meteorological data displays and toxic material spills. MARSS also provides mock scenarios to guide preparations for emergencies involving meteorological hazards and toxic substances. Developed under a Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) contract with Kennedy Space Center, MARSS was designed to measure how safe NASA and Air Force range safety personnel are while performing weather sensitive operations around launch pads. The system augments a ground operations safety plan that limits certain work operations to very specific weather conditions. It also provides toxic hazard prediction models to assist safety managers in planning for and reacting to releases of hazardous materials. MARSS can be used in agricultural, industrial, and scientific applications that require weather forecasts and predictions of toxic smoke movement. MARSS is also designed to protect urban areas, seaports, rail facilities, and airports from airborne releases of hazardous chemical substances. The system can integrate with local facility protection units and provide instant threat detection and assessment data that is reportable for local and national distribution.

Description: Through a cooperative venture with NASA's Stennis Space Center, WorldWinds, Inc., developed a unique weather and wave vector map using space-based radar satellite information and traditional weather observations. Called WorldWinds, the product provides accurate, near real-time, high-resolution weather forecasts. It was developed for commercial and scientific users. In addition to weather forecasting, the product's applications include maritime and terrestrial transportation, aviation operations, precision farming, offshore oil and gas operations, and coastal hazard response support. Target commercial markets include the operational maritime and aviation communities, oil and gas providers, and recreational yachting interests. Science applications include global long-term prediction and climate change, land-cover and land-use change, and natural hazard issues. Commercial airlines have expressed interest in the product, as it can provide forecasts over remote areas. WorldWinds, Inc., is currently providing its product to commercial weather outlets.

Description: Pollution is often considered a localized phenomenon, but it is now clear that it travels from region-to-region, country to country, and even continent to continent. In addition to urban pollution in developed countries, large emissions from developing nations and large-scale biomass fires add to the global pollution burden. Ozone and aerosols are two components of pollution that contribute to radiative forcing of the earth s climate. In turn, as climate changes, rates of chemical and microphysical reactions may be perturbed. Considering the earth as a coupled chemical-microphysical-climate system poses challenges for models and observations alike. These issues were the topic of a Workshop held in May 2002 at NASA GSFC s Laboratory for Atmospheres. Highlights of the Workshop are summarized in this article.

Description: Hundreds of Vaisala sondes with a RS80-H Humicap thin-film capacitor humidity sensor were launched during the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) field campaigns in Large Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere held in Brazil (LBA) and in Kwajalein experiment (KWAJEX) held in the Republic of Marshall Islands. Using Six humidity error correction algorithms by Wang et al., these sondes were corrected for significant dry bias in the RS80-H data. It is further shown that sonde surface temperature error must be corrected for a better representation of the relative humidity. This error becomes prominent due to sensor arm-heating in the first 50-s data.

Description: A Government-industry team led by the NASA Glenn Research Center has developed a computer interface standard for accessing data from computer-aided design (CAD) systems. The Object Management Group, an international computer standards organization, has adopted this CAD services standard. The new standard allows software (e.g., computer-aided engineering (CAE) and computer-aided manufacturing software to access multiple CAD systems through one programming interface. The interface is built on top of a distributed computing system called the Common Object Request Broker Architecture (CORBA). CORBA allows the CAD services software to operate in a distributed, heterogeneous computing environment.

Description: Turbine superalloy components are subject to high-temperature oxidation during operation. Protection is often conferred by coatings designed to form slow-growing, adherent oxide scales. Degradation by oxidation is exacerbated by the thermal cycling encountered during normal aircraft operations. Cooling has been identified as the major contributor to stresses in the oxidation scales, and it may often cause some oxide scale spallation with a proportional loss of protective behavior. Overall oxidation resistance is, thus, studied by the weight change behavior of alloy coupons during high-temperature cyclic oxidation in furnace or burner rig tests. The various characteristics of this behavior are crucial in understanding the performance of alloys at high temperatures. This new modeling effort helps in the understanding of the major factors involved in the cyclic oxidation process. Weight change behavior in cyclic oxidation is typified by an initial parabolic weight gain response curve that eventually exhibits a maximum, then transitions into a linear rate of weight loss due to spalling. The overall shape and magnitude of the curve are determined by the parabolic growth rate, kp, the cycle duration, the type of oxide scale, and the regular, repetitive spalling process. This entire process was modeled by a computer program called the Cyclic Oxidation Spalling Program (COSP) previously developed at the NASA Glenn Research Center. Thus, by supplying appropriate oxidation input parameters, one can determine the best fit to the actual data. These parameters describe real behavior and can be used to compare alloys and project cyclic oxidation behavior for longer times or under different cycle frequencies.

Description: The primary cause of the midwestern North American drought in the summer of 1988 has been identified to be the La Nina SST anomalies. Yet with the SST anomalies prescribed, this drought has not been simulated satisfactorily by any general circulation model. Seven simulation-experiments, each containing an ensemble of 4-sets of simulations, were conducted with the GEOS GCM for both 1987 and 1988. All simulations started from January 1 and continued through the end of August. In the first baseline case, Case 1, only the SST anomalies and some vegetation parameters were prescribed, while everything else (such as soil moisture, snow-cover, and clouds) was interactive. The GCM did produce some of the circulation features of a drought over North America, but they could only be identified on the planetary scales. The 1988 minus 1987 precipitation differences show that the GCM was successful in simulating reduced precipitation in the mid-west, but the accompanying circulation anomalies were not well simulated, leading one to infer that the GCM has simulated the drought for the wrong reason. To isolate the causes for this unremarkable circulation, analyzed winds and soil moisture were prescribed in Case 2 and Case 3 as continuous updates by direct replacement of the GCM-predicted fields. These cases show that a large number of simulation biases emanate from wind biases that are carried into the North American region from surroundings regions. Inclusion of soil moisture also helps to ameliorate the strong feedback, perhaps even stronger than that of the real atmosphere, between soil moisture and precipitation. Case 2 simulated one type of surface temperature anomaly pattern, whereas Case 3 with the prescribed soil moisture produced another.

Description: It is the purpose of this paper to analyze the structure of the cost estimating relationships that commercial cost models use and to test whether they are viable cost functions.

Description: We describe an approach that makes value maximization possible during the earliest phases of software development.

Description: The more we know about software costs and benefits, the more precisely we can analyze the trade-offs between options in a software project.

Description: We will present open source solutions used to develop solid applications. Three applications will be discussed where open source software was used and delivered to the customer.

Description: In this talk we will discuss how uncertainty has been incorporated into the JPL software model, probabilistic-based estimates, and how risk is addressed, how cost risk is currently being explored via a variety of approaches, from traditional risk lists, to detailed WBS-based risk estimates to the Defect Detection and Prevention (DDP) tool.

Description: This paper presents an examination of the CCA software in sequential and parallel electromagnetics applications using unstructured adaptive mesh refinement.

Description: As part of our on-going work in modeling software faults, we have developed a method of unambiguously identifying and counting faults.

Description: In this paper we describe our plans to better understand this phenomenon using TEC measurements from ground and space-borne GPS receivers.

Description: We will describe the model checking process, the tools used, and the methods and conditions necessary to successfully perform model checking on the DS1 flight software.

Description: We present an approach which facilitates descoping. It is founded upon a quantitative model of requirements attainment, resource consumption, and risk.

Description: The presentation will provide a brief overview of the SQI measurement program as well as describe each of these models and how they are currently being used in supporting JPL project, task and software managers to estimate and plan future software systems and subsystems.