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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2005-05-15
    Description: In this study, numerical simulations of the twentieth-century climate are evaluated, focusing on the changes in the intensity of the global water cycle. A new model diagnostic of atmospheric water vapor cycling rate is developed and employed that relies on constituent tracers predicted at the model time step. This diagnostic is compared to a simplified traditional calculation of cycling rate, based on monthly averages of precipitation and total water content. The mean sensitivity of both diagnostics to variations in climate forcing is comparable. However, the new diagnostic produces systematically larger values with more variability. Climate simulations were performed using SSTs of the early (1902–21) and late (1979–98) twentieth century along with the appropriate CO2 forcing. In general, the increase of global precipitation with the increases in SST that occurred between the early and late twentieth century is small. However, an increase of atmospheric temperature leads to a systematic increase in total precipitable water. As a result, the residence time of water in the atmosphere increased, indicating a reduction of the global cycling rate. This result was explored further using a number of 50-yr climate simulations from different models forced with observed SST. The anomalies and trends in the cycling rate and hydrologic variables of different GCMs are remarkably similar. The global annual anomalies of precipitation show a significant upward trend related to the upward trend of surface temperature, during the latter half of the twentieth century. While this implies an increase in the simulated hydrologic cycle intensity, a concomitant increase of total precipitable water again leads to a decrease in the calculated global cycling rate. An analysis of the land/sea differences shows that the simulated precipitation over land has a decreasing trend, while the oceanic precipitation has an upward trend consistent with previous studies and the available observations. The decreasing continental trend in precipitation is located primarily over tropical land regions, with some other regions, such as North America, experiencing an increasing trend. Precipitation trends are diagnosed further using the water tracers to delineate the precipitation that occurs because of continental evaporation, as opposed to oceanic evaporation. These model diagnostics show that over global land areas, the recycling of continental moisture is decreasing in time. However, the recycling changes are not spatially uniform so that some regions, most notably over the United States, experience continental recycling of water that increases in time.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2014-02-01
    Description: Offline simulations over the conterminous United States (CONUS) with a land surface model are used to address two issues relevant to the forecasting of large-scale seasonal streamflow: (i) the extent to which errors in soil moisture initialization degrade streamflow forecasts, and (ii) the extent to which a realistic increase in the spatial resolution of forecasted precipitation would improve streamflow forecasts. The addition of error to a soil moisture initialization field is found to lead to a nearly proportional reduction in large-scale seasonal streamflow forecast skill. The linearity of the response allows the determination of a lower bound for the increase in streamflow forecast skill achievable through improved soil moisture estimation, for example, through the assimilation of satellite-based soil moisture measurements. An increase in the resolution of precipitation is found to have an impact on large-scale seasonal streamflow forecasts only when evaporation variance is significant relative to precipitation variance. This condition is met only in the western half of the CONUS domain. Taken together, the two studies demonstrate the utility of a continental-scale land surface–modeling system as a tool for addressing the science of hydrological prediction.
    Print ISSN: 1525-755X
    Electronic ISSN: 1525-7541
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2010-02-13
    Print ISSN: 0930-7575
    Electronic ISSN: 1432-0894
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Springer
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2004-12-03
    Description: In this study, we have applied GCM water vapor tracers (WVT) to simulate the North American water cycle. WVTs allow quantitative computation of the geographical source of water for precipitation that occurs anywhere in the model simulation. This can be used to isolate the impact that local surface evaporation has on precipitation, compared to advection and convection. A 15 year 1 deg, 1.25 deg. simulation has been performed with 11 global and 11 North American regional WVTs. Figure 1 shows the source regions of the North American WVTs. When water evaporates from one of these predefined regions, its mass is used as the source for a distinct prognostic variable in the model. This prognostic variable allows the water to be transported and removed (precipitated) from the system in an identical way that occurs to the prognostic specific humidity. Details of the model are outlined by Bosilovich and Schubert (2002) and Bosilovich (2002). Here, we present results pertaining to the onset of the simulated North American monsoon.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: Prospects for Improved Forecasts of Weather and Short-Term Climate Variability on Subseasonal (2-Week to 2-Month) Times Scales; Volume 23; 144-148; NASA/TM-2002-104606/VOL23
    Format: text
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2018-06-06
    Description: In this study, we evaluate numerical simulations of the twentieth century climate, focusing on the changes in the intensity of the global water cycle. A new diagnostic of atmospheric water vapor cycling rate is developed and employed, that relies on constituent tracers predicted at the model time step. This diagnostic is compared to a simplified traditional calculation of cycling rate, based on monthly averages of precipitation and total water content. The mean sensitivity of both diagnostics to variations in climate forcing is comparable. However, the new diagnostic produces systematically larger values and more variability than the traditional average approach. Climate simulations were performed using SSTs of the early (1902-1921) and late (1979- 1998) twentieth century along with the appropriate C02 forcing. In general, the increase of global precipitation with the increases in SST that occurred between the early and late twentieth century is small. However, an increase of atmospheric temperature leads to a systematic increase in total precipitable water. As a result, the residence time of water in the atmosphere increased, indicating a reduction of the global cycling rate. This result was explored further using a number of 50-year climate simulations from different models forced with observed SST. The anomalies and trends in the cycling rate and hydrologic variables of different GCMs are remarkably similar. The global annual anomalies of precipitation show a significant upward trend related to the upward trend of surface temperature, during the latter half of the twentieth century. While this implies an increase in the hydrologic cycle intensity, a concomitant increase of total precipitable water again leads to a decrease in the calculated global cycling rate. An analysis of the land/sea differences shows that the simulated precipitation over land has a decreasing trend while the oceanic precipitation has an upward trend consistent with previous studies and the available observations. The decreasing continental trend in precipitation is located primarily over tropical land regions, with some other regions, such as North America experiencing an increasing trend. Precipitation trends are diagnosed further using the water tracers to delineate the precipitation that occurs because of continental evaporation, as opposed to oceanic evaporation. These diagnostics show that over global land areas, the recycling of continental moisture is decreasing in time. However, the recycling changes are not spatially uniform so that some regions, most notably over the United States, experience continental recycling of water that increases in time.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2018-06-06
    Description: A general circulation model (GCM) that includes water vapor tracer (WVT) diagnostics is used to delineate the dominant sources of water vapor for precipitation during the North American monsoon. A 15-year model simulation carried out with one-degree horizontal resolution and time varying sea surface temperature is able to produce reasonable large-scale features of the monsoon precipitation. Within the core of the Mexican monsoon, continental sources provide much of the water for precipitation. Away from the Mexican monsoon (eastern Mexico and Texas), continental sources generally decrease with monsoon onset. Tropical Atlantic Ocean sources of water gain influence in the southern Great Plains states where the total precipitation decreases during the monsoon onset. Pacific ocean sources do contribute to the monsoon, but tend to be weaker after onset. Evaluating the development of the monsoons, soil water and surface evaporation prior to monsoon onset do not correlate with the eventual monsoon intensity. However, the most intense monsoons do use more local sources of water than the least intense monsoons, but only after the onset. This suggests that precipitation recycling is an important factor in monsoon intensity.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2018-06-06
    Description: There are several important research questions that the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) is actively pursuing, namely: What is the intensity of the water cycle and how does it change? And what is the sustainability of water resources? Much of the research to address these questions is directed at understanding the atmospheric water cycle. In this paper, we have used a new diagnostic tool, called Water Vapor Tracers (WVTs), to quantify the how much precipitation originated as continental or oceanic evaporation. This shows how long water can remain in the atmosphere and how far it can travel. The model-simulated data are analyzed over regions of interest to the GEWEX community, specifically, their Continental Scale Experiments (CSEs) that are in place in the United States, Europe, Asia, Brazil, Africa and Canada. The paper presents quantitative data on how much each continent and ocean on Earth supplies water for each CSE. Furthermore, the analysis also shows the seasonal variation of the water sources. For example, in the United States, summertime precipitation is dominated by continental (land surface) sources of water, while wintertime precipitation is dominated by the Pacific Ocean sources of water. We also analyze the residence time of water in the atmosphere. The new diagnostic shows a longer residence time for water (9.2 days) than more traditional estimates (7.5 days). We emphasize that the results are based on model simulations and they depend on the model s veracity. However, there are many potential uses for the new diagnostic tool in understanding weather processes and large and small scales.
    Keywords: Oceanography
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2019-07-12
    Description: Offline simulations over the conterminous United States (CONUS) with a land surface model are used to address two issues relevant to the forecasting of large-scale seasonal streamflow: (i) the extent to which errors in soil moisture initialization degrade streamflow forecasts, and (ii) the extent to which a realistic increase in the spatial resolution of forecasted precipitation would improve streamflow forecasts. The addition of error to a soil moisture initialization field is found to lead to a nearly proportional reduction in streamflow forecast skill. The linearity of the response allows the determination of a lower bound for the increase in streamflow forecast skill achievable through improved soil moisture estimation, e.g., through satellite-based soil moisture measurements. An increase in the resolution of precipitation is found to have an impact on large-scale streamflow forecasts only when evaporation variance is significant relative to the precipitation variance. This condition is met only in the western half of the CONUS domain. Taken together, the two studies demonstrate the utility of a continental-scale land surface modeling system as a tool for addressing the science of hydrological prediction.
    Keywords: Earth Resources and Remote Sensing
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN8162
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