ALBERT

Description: This paper aims at understanding the social and political uses of the principle of integrated management and its possible impacts on the elaboration and implementation processes of public policies in the French water management field. The academic and political innovations developed by scientists and agents of the administration these last 25 years are analysed, using some of the theoretical tools developed by the science studies and public policy analysis. We first focus on the construction of intellectual public policy communities such as the GIP Hydro systems, at the origin of large interdisciplinary research programs in the 1990s. A common cognitive framework is clearly built during this period on the good governance of the aquatic ecosystems and on the corresponding needs and practices of research. The second part of the paper focuses on the possibilities to build political communities and more or less integrated expertises in the decision making processes concerning various issues related to water management. Eutrophication and its inscription on the French political agenda is a very significant case for analysing the difficulty to build such a political community. On the contrary, when there is an opportunity for policy evaluation, which was the case concerning the management of wetlands in France or the implementation of compulsory flows on the French rivers, these communities can emerge. However, the type of integrated expertise and management proposed in these cases of policy evaluations much depends on their methodological choices.

Description: The 30-year record 1975–2004 of weekly samples of streamwater chemistry from Birkenes, Norway, shows 106 acid episodes below the threshold of ANC –50 μeq l−1. The frequency, severity and duration of episodes have diminished since about 1990 due to chemical recovery following reduced deposition of sulphur. In particular SO4-driven episodes in the first runoff following drought have become less intense and less frequent, whereas episodes driven by climate (wind, high flow) continue. The data show significant empirical relationships between strength of the driver, degree of chemical recovery, and severity of ANC depression.

Description: Downscaling of climate model data is essential to most impact analysis. We compare two methods of statistical downscaling to produce continuous, gridded time series of precipitation and surface air temperature at a 1/8-degree (approximately 140 km² per grid cell) resolution over the western U.S. We use NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data from 1950–1999 as a surrogate General Circulation Model (GCM). The two methods included are constructed analogues (CA) and a bias correction and spatial downscaling (BCSD), both of which have been shown to be skillful in different settings, and BCSD has been used extensively in hydrologic impact analysis. Both methods use the coarse scale Reanalysis fields of precipitation and temperature as predictors of the corresponding fine scale fields. CA downscales daily large-scale data directly and BCSD downscales monthly data, with a random resampling technique to generate daily values. The methods produce comparable skill in producing downscaled, gridded fields of precipitation and temperatures at a monthly and seasonal level. For daily precipitation, both methods exhibit some skill in reproducing both observed wet and dry extremes and the difference between the methods is not significant, reflecting the general low skill in daily precipitation variability in the reanalysis data. For low temperature extremes, the CA method produces greater downscaling skill than BCSD for fall and winter seasons. For high temperature extremes, CA demonstrates higher skill than BCSD in summer. We find that the choice of most appropriate downscaling technique depends on the variables, seasons, and regions of interest, on the availability of daily data, and whether the day to day correspondence of weather from the GCM needs to be reproduced for some applications. The ability to produce skillful downscaled daily data depends primarily on the ability of the climate model to show daily skill.

Description: The study of acidification and recovery of two lakes situated in the Polish Tatra Mountains, exposed to similar deposition of acidic substances but differing in altitude, catchment morphology, hydrology, and biodiversity is presented. Measurements were performed in 1992–1996 and 2001–2005. Simultaneously, research on the atmospheric deposition was carried out. The following physical and chemical parameters in lake water and precipitation were measured: pH, conductivity (K25), Ca2+, Mg2+, Na+, K+, NH4+, SO42−, NO3−, Cl− and alkalinity. Distinct changes in the chemical composition of precipitation were observed over 14 years (1992–2005). During this time the sulphate concentration decreased significantly, and the concentration of hydrogen ions in precipitation decreased at an average rate of 2.23 meq/m³/yr. There was no significant change in nitrate, ammonium or total nitrogen deposition. The chemical composition of water of both lakes changed significantly and showed signs of chemical recovery with decreases in sulphate concentration and increases in acid neutralising capacity. The concentration of base cations declined. Despite the lack of clear trends in nitrogen deposition, a statistically significant drop in concentration was observed in the two lakes. A significant increase of about 15% in the retention of nitrogen compounds in both catchments occurred. An improvement in nitrogen saturation status in both catchments was observed. This probably resulted mainly from decreasing acidification and global warming which prolongs the vegetative period, changes plant species composition and increases the microbiological activity of soil.

Description: Dominating wind patterns around Norway may change due to climate warming. This could affect transport of polluted air masses and precipitation. Here, we study relations between reactive nitrogen wet deposition and air mass transport during summer and winter expressed in the form of climate indices, at seven sites in Southern Norway for the period 1980–2005. Atmospheric nitrate concentrations decreased with 0 to 50% in the period, particularly at sites with little precipitation, and mostly during 1990–2005. For comparison, reported reductions in emissions of oxidised nitrogen in Europe in 1989–2003 were 23%. Climate indices explained up to 36% of the variation in winter nitrate deposition at the western and northern sites – and also explained 60% of the variation in winter precipitation (R=0.77). This suggests that the variation in nitrate wet deposition is closely related to variation in precipitation, and that the climate indices seem to also partly control the variation in atmospheric nitrate concentrations (R=−0.45 at coastal sites). At the coastal sites, local air temperature was highly correlated (R=0.84) with winter nitrate deposition, suggesting that warm, humid winter weather results in increased wet nitrate deposition. For ammonia the pattern was similar, but this compound is more influenced by local sources. Expected severe increase in precipitation in western and northern regions as a consequence of climate change suggest that nitrogen deposition in these areas will increase under global warming if emissions are held constant.

Description: The role of specific catchment areas, such as the soil-river or lake interfaces, in removing or buffering the flux of N from terrestrial to aquatic ecosystems is globally recognized but the extreme variability of microbiological and hydrological processes make it difficult to predict the extent to which different wetlands function as buffer systems. In this paper we evaluate the degree to which biogeochemical processes in a lacustrine wetland are responsible for the nitrate removal from ground waters feeding Candia Lake (Northern Italy). A transect of 18 piezometers was installed perpendicular to the shoreline, in a sub-unit formed by 80 m of poplar plantation, close to a crop field and 30 m of reed swamp. The chemical analysis revealed a drastic NO3-N ground water depletion from the crop field to the lake, with concentrations decreasing from 15–18 mg N/l to the detection limit within the reeds. Patterns of Cl, SO4, O2, NO2-N, HCO3 and DOC suggest that the metabolic activity of bacterial communities, based on the differential use of electron donors and acceptors in redox reactions is the key function of this system. The significant inverse relationship found between NO3-N and HCO3 is a valuable indicator of the denitrification activity. The pluviometric regime, the temperature, the organic carbon availability and the hydrogeomorphic properties are the main environmental factors affecting the N transformations in the studied lacustrine ecosystem.

Description: We conducted a 3-year artificial deepening of the thermocline in the dimictic Lake Breisjøen, southern Norway, by means of a large submerged propeller. An adjacent lake served as untreated reference. The manipulation increased thermocline depth from 6 to 20 m, caused a significant increase in the heat content, and delayed ice-on by about 20 days. There were only minor changes in water chemistry. Concentrations of sulphate declined, perhaps due to greater reduction of sulphate at the sediment-water interface. Concentrations of particulate carbon and nitrogen decreased, perhaps due to increased sedimantation velocity. Water transparency increased. There was no significant change in concentration of phosphorus, the growth-limiting nutrient. There were few significant changes in principal biological components. Phytoplankton biomass and productivity did not change, although the chlorophyll-a concentration showed a small decrease. Phytoplankton species richness increased, and the species composition shifted. Growth of periphyton increased. There was no change in the macrophyte community. The manipulation did not affect the zooplankton biodiversity, but caused a significant shift in the relative abundance (measured as biomass) in the two major copepod species. The manipulation did not affect the individual density, but appeared to have changed the vertical distribution of zoobenthos. Fish populations were not affected. The lake is oligotrophic and clearwater and the manipulation did not change the supply of phosphorus, and thus there were only minor changes in lake chemistry and biology. Effects might be larger in eutrophic and dystrophic lakes in which internal processes are stronger.

Description: DOC concentrations have increased in many surface waters in Europe and North America over the past few decades. As DOC exerts a strong influence on pH this DOC increase could have detrimental effects on acid sensitive biota in many streams and lakes. To investigate the potential implications of changes in the DOC concentration on stream water biota, we have used a mesoscale boreal stream network in northern Sweden as a case study. The network was sampled for stream water chemistry at 60 locations during both winter base flow and spring flood periods, representing the extremes experienced annually in these streams both in terms of discharge and acidity. The effect of changing DOC on pH was modeled for all sampling locations using an organic acid model, with input DOC concentrations for different scenarios adjusted by between –30% and +50% from measured present concentrations. The resulting effect on pH was then used to quantify the proportion of stream length in the catchment with pH below the acid thresholds of pH 5.5 and pH 5.0. The results suggest that a change in stream water DOC during base flow would have only a limited effect on pH and hence on the stream length with pH below the acid thresholds. During the spring flood on the other hand a change in DOC would strongly influence pH and the stream length with pH below the acid thresholds. For example an increase in DOC concentration of 30% at all sites would increase the proportion of stream length with pH below 5.5 from 37% to 65%, and the proportion of stream length with pH below 5.0 would increase from 18% to 27%. The results suggest that in poorly-buffered high DOC waters, even a marginal change in the DOC concentration could impact acid sensitive biota in a large portion of the aquatic landscape.

Description: The regional-scale trends (south, central and north Finland) in key acidification parameters over the period 1990–2003 were studied in lakes used for monitoring of acidification (157 lakes), and the catchment characteristics that best discriminate between lakes showing recovery (significant increase in alkalinity) and those not showing recovery (no significant increase) were determined. A significant decline in sulphate concentrations occurred in 82–98% of the lakes, depending of the region. Base cation (BC) concentrations decreased for most lakes, but to a lesser extent than those of SO4. Consequently, a significant increase in Gran alkalinity occurred in 40–92% of the lakes. The recovery from acidification has been strongest in lakes in south Finland, where both levels and decrease of S (and N) deposition have been higher compared to other regions. A significant increase in pH was detected in about 50% of the lakes in the south. Here labile aluminium concentrations also decreased in the most acidic lakes. Recovery has occurred most strongly in lakes which have SO4 as a dominant acid anion, whereas recovery has been weaker in acidified humic lakes which have organic anion as a dominant acid anion. The non-recovering lakes in south Finland have higher proportion of exposed bedrock in the catchment, and higher TOC and lower BC concentrations. In central Finland the proportion of peatland and TOC concentrations were higher and the decrease of BC concentration was steeper in non-recovering lakes than in recovering lakes. In north Finland, catchment characteristics, trend slopes and concentrations did not separate the recovering and non-recovering lakes. The non-recovering lakes were also located in regions which are acid-sensitive based on bedrock type, soil properties, weathering rate and runoff. These factors have resulted in lower concentrations and steeper downward trends for base cations.

Description: This study assesses the major chemical processes leading to acid extremes in a small, moorland stream in mid-Wales, UK, which has been monitored since 1979. Results suggest that base cation (mainly calcium) dilution, the "sea-salt effect", and elevated nitrate pulses, are the major causes of seasonal/episodic minima in acid neutralising capacity (ANC), and that the relative importance of these drivers has remained approximately constant during 25 years of decreasing acid deposition and associated long-term chemical recovery. Many of the chemical variations causing short-term reductions in stream acidity, particularly base cation dilution and organic acid increases, are closely related to changes in water-flowpath and therefore to stream discharge. Changes in the observed pH-discharge relationship over time indicate that high-flow pH has increased more rapidly than mean-flow pH, and therefore that episodes have decreased in magnitude since 1980. However a two-box application of the dynamic model MAGIC, whilst reproducing this trend, suggests that it will not persist in the long term, with mean ANC continuing to increase until 2100, but the ANC of the upper soil (the source of relatively acid water during high-flow episodes) stabilising close to zero beyond 2030. With climate change predicted to lead to an increase in maximum flows in the latter half of the century, high-flow related acid episodes may actually become more rather than less severe in the long term, although the model suggests that this effect may be small. Two other predicted climatic changes could also detrimentally impact on acid episodes: increased severity of winter "sea-salt" episodes due to higher wind speeds during winter storms; and larger sulphate pulses due to oxidation of reduced sulphur held in organic soils, during more extreme summer droughts. At the Gwy, the near-coastal location and relatively small extent of peat soils suggest that sea-salt episodes may have the greatest influence.

Description: The increasing interaction between large cities and nature makes "urban water" an issue: water resources and water services – including public water supply, sewage collection and treatment, and in large cities, storm water control –, which had become separate issues thanks to the process of water transport and treatment technologies, are now increasingly interfering with each other. We cannot take nature for granted anymore, and we need to protect water resources, if only to reduce the long term cost of transporting and treating water. In this paper, we compare the historical development of water industry technologies in European and Brazilian metropolitan areas, in their socio-economic and political context, tracing it through three "ages" of water technology and services which developed under civil engineering, sanitary engineering, and environmental engineering perspectives: the "quantity of water" and civil engineering paradigm was developed on the assumption that water should be drawn from natural environments far from the cities; in the "water quality" and chemical/sanitation engineering paradigm, water treatment was invented and allowed cities to take water from rivers closer to them and treat it, but also to reduce sewer discharge impacts; finally, the environmental engineering paradigm proposes to overcome the supply side perspective, by introducing demand side management, water conservation, water allocation flexibilisation, and an integrated approach to water services, water resources management, and land use policies.

Description: The dynamic hydro-chemical Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments (MAGIC) was used to predict the response of 163 Finnish lake catchments to future acidic deposition and climatic change scenarios. Future deposition was assumed to follow current European emission reduction policies and a scenario based on maximum (technologically) feasible reductions (MFR). Future climate (temperature and precipitation) was derived from the HadAM3 and ECHAM4/OPYC3 general circulation models under two global scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC: A2 and B2). The combinations resulting in the widest range of future changes were used for simulations, i.e., the A2 scenario results from ECHAM4/OPYC3 (highest predicted change) and B2 results from HadAM3 (lowest predicted change). Future scenarios for catchment runoff were obtained from the Finnish watershed simulation and forecasting system. The potential influence of future changes in surface water organic carbon concentrations was also explored using simple empirical relationships based on temperature and sulphate deposition. Surprisingly, current emission reduction policies hardly show any future recovery; however, significant chemical recovery of soil and surface water from acidification was predicted under the MFR emission scenario. The direct influence of climate change (temperate and precipitation) on recovery was negligible, as runoff hardly changed; greater precipitation is offset by increased evapotranspiration due to higher temperatures. Predicted changes in dissolved organic carbon induced by reductions in acid deposition or increases in temperature may potentially influence the recovery of surface waters from acidification and may offset the increase in pH resulting from S deposition reductions. However, many climate-induced changes in processes are generally not incorporated in current versions of acidification models. To allow more reliable forecasts, the mechanisms by which climate changes affect key biogeochemical processes need to be incorporated directly into process-oriented models such as MAGIC.

Description: Climate-induced drought events have a significant influence on sulphate export from forested catchments in central Ontario, subsequently delaying the recovery of surface waters from acidification. In the current study, a model chain that employed a statistical downscaling model, a hydrological model and two hydrochemical models was used to forecast the chemical recovery of Plastic Lake sub-catchment 1 (PC1) from acidification under proposed deposition reductions and the A2 emission scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Any predicted recovery in stream acid neutralising capacity and pH owing to deposition reductions were clearly offset by large acid effluxes from climate-induced drought events. By 2100, ANC is predicted to show large variations ranging between 10 and −30 μmolc L−1. Similarly, predicted pH in 2100 is lower (〉0.05 of a pH unit) than the value simulated for 2000 (pH 4.35). Despite emission reductions, the future scenario paints a bleak picture of reacidification at PC1 to levels commensurate with those of the late 1970s. The principal process behind this reacidification is the oxidation of previously stored (reduced) sulphur compounds in wetlands during periods of low-flow (or drought), with subsequent efflux of sulphate upon re-wetting. Simulated catchment runoff under the A2 emissions scenario predictes increased intensity and frequency of low-flow events from approximately 2030 onwards. The Integrated Catchments model for Carbon indicated that stream DOC concentrations at PC1 will also increase under the future climate scenario, with temperature being the principal driver. Despite the predicted (significant) increase in DOC, pH is not predicted to further decline (beyond the climate-induced oxidation scenario), instead pH shows greater variability throughout the simulation. As echoed by many recent studies, hydrochemical models and model frameworks need to incorporate the drivers and mechanisms (at appropriate time-scales) that affect the key biogeochemical processes to reliably predict the impacts of climate change.

Description: The role of meteorology, hydrology and atmospheric deposition on the temporal pattern of SO4 and NO3 concentrations was investigated for three streams draining alpine catchments in Northern Italy. The study sites lie on a gradient of atmospheric fluxes of SO4 and NO3 (from about 50 to 80 meq m−2 y−1, and from 40 to 90 meq m−2 y−1, respectively). As a consequence of the increasing N input, the three catchments are also representative of aggrading levels of N saturation. Different methods of statistical analysis were applied to monthly data for the period 1997–2005 to identify which variables (temperature, precipitation, hydrology, SO4 and NO3 deposition) were the main predictors of water chemistry and its change in time. Hydrological changes and snow cover proved to be the main confounding factors in the response to atmospheric deposition in the River Masino catchment. Its particular characteristics (small catchment area, rapid flushing during runoff and thin soil cover) meant that this site responded without a significant delay to SO4 deposition decrease. It also showed a clear seasonal pattern of NO3 concentration, in response to hydrology and biological uptake in the growing season. The selected driving variables failed to model the water chemistry at the other study sites. Nevertheless, temperature, especially extreme values, turned out to be important in both SO4 and NO3 export from the catchments. This result might be largely explained by the effect of warm periods on temperature-dependent processes such as mineralization, nitrification and S desorption. Our findings suggest that surface waters in the alpine area will be extremely sensitive to a climate warming scenario: higher temperatures and increasing frequency of drought could exacerbate the effects of high chronic N deposition.

Description: Acidification has caused the loss or reduction of numerous Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) populations on both sides of the North Atlantic. Acid deposition peaked in the 1980's and resulted in both chronically and episodically acidified rivers. At present, water quality is improving in all affected rivers due to reduced acid deposition. However, spring snow melt, heavy rainfall and sea salt episodes can still cause short term drops in pH and elevated concentrations of bioavailable aluminum. Technical malfunction in lime dozers will cause short termed episodic spates in the limed rivers. The current situation has prompted a need for dose-response relationships based on short term exposures of Atlantic salmon to assess the potential population effects of episodic acidification. Water quality guidelines for salmon have been lacking, despite a large number of experiments, all demonstrating dose-response relationships between water chemistry and fish health. We have summarized results from 347 short-term (10 days) at an Al dose resulting in a gill Al concentration of up to 300 μg Alg−1 dw, a 3 day exposure resulting in a gill Al accumulation in the range of 25 to 60 μg Alg−1 dw reduces smolt to adult survival in a dose related manner by 20 to 50%. For smolt to adult survival, the biological significant response is delayed relative to the dose and occurs first after the fish enters the marine environment. In addition to exposure intensity and timing, exposure duration is important for the setting of critical limits.

Description: The method of correlation analysis and trend analysis were used in this research in order to confirm the response of "glacier-runoff" system to global warming. Hailuogou glacier had retreated by 1871.8 m over the past 76 years, Hailuogou No. 2 glacier had also retreated by 1100 m. Glaciers retreats are contrary to the climatic warming trend in China and the Northern Hemisphere. Glaciers in Hailuogou basin were in the loss with a fluctuating manner since 1950s, and accumulative value of mass balance is −10 825.5 mm water equivalent with an annual mean value of −240.6 mm. The inverse correlation is highly significant between mass balance variation and climatic fluctuation of China and the Northern Hemisphere after 1950s. Glacier ablation is intensive with a ratio of 7.86 m yr−1. A steady rise tendency toward glaciers runoff has been observed since 1980s, and the runoff rise is mainly responsible for melt water in Hailuogou basin. It is noticeable that climatic warming not only strengthened ablation extent and enlarged ablation area, but also prolonged ablation period. Global warming is the main cause of glacier retreat, mass loss and runoff rise in Hailuogou basin.

Description: Numerical simulation models are frequently applied to assess the impact of climate change on hydrology and agriculture. A common hypothesis is that unavoidable model errors are reflected in the reference situation as well as in the climate change situation so that by comparing reference to scenario model errors will level out. For a polder in The Netherlands an innovative procedure has been introduced, referred to as the Model-Scenario-Ratio (MSR), to express model inaccuracy on climate change impact assessment. MSR values close to 1, indicating that impact assessment is mainly a function of the scenario itself rather than of the quality of the model, were found for most indicators evaluated. More extreme climate change scenarios and indicators based on threshold values showed lower MSR values, indicating that model accuracy is an important component of the climate change impact assessment. It was concluded that the MSR approach can be applied easily and will lead to more robust impact assessment analyses.

Description: Spatial patterns of soil moisture cannot be adequately characterized by direct measurement for most practical applications, so interpolation between observations is required. Interpolation of soil moisture is complicated because multiple hydrologic processes can affect soil moisture and these processes can introduce distinct modes of variation into the soil moisture patterns. In this paper, a new method to interpolate soil moisture data is presented. This method accepts a dataset of soil moisture at widely-spaced locations on multiple dates and produces fine-scale patterns of soil moisture on the same dates. The method first uses Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis to decompose the dataset into a set of time-invariant patterns of covariation (EOFs) and a set of associated time series (called expansion coefficients or ECs) that indicate the importance of the patterns on each date. The method then uses a statistical test to retain only the most important EOFs, and these EOFs are interpolated to the desired resolution using a standard estimation or interpolation method. The interpolated EOFs are finally combined with the spatial averages and the ECs to construct the fine-scale soil moisture patterns. Using the Tarrawarra dataset, the EOF-based interpolation method is shown to outperform analogous direct interpolation methods, and this improved performance is observed when as few as two observation dates are available. The improved performance occurs because EOF analysis decomposes soil moisture roughly according to the controlling processes and the most important EOFs exhibit distinct but more consistent spatial structures than soil moisture itself. Less predictable variation is also separated into higher order EOFs, which are discarded by the method.

Description: Olive tree (Olea europaea L.) is commonly grown in the Mediterranean basin where prolonged droughts may occur during the vegetative period. This species has developed a series of physiological mechanisms to tolerate drought stress and grow under adverse climatic conditions that can be observed in numerous plants of the Mediterranean macchia. These mechanisms have been investigated through an experimental campaign carried out over both irrigated and drought-stressed plants in order to comprehend the plant response under stressed conditions and its ability to recover. Experimental results show that olive plants subjected to water deficit lower the water content and water potentials of their tissues, establishing a particularly high potential gradient between leaves and roots, and stop canopy growth but not photosynthetic activity and transpiration. This allows the continuous production of assimilates as well as their accumulation in the various plant parts, so creating a higher root/leaf ratio if compared to well-watered plants. Active and passive osmotic adjustment due to the accumulation of sugars (in particular mannitol and glucose), proline and other osmolytes has a key role in maintaining cell turgor and leaf activities. At severe drought-stress levels, the non-stomatal component of photosynthesis is inhibited and a light-dependent inactivation of the photosystem II occurs. Finally, the activities of some antioxidant enzymes involved in the scavenging of activated oxygen species and in other biochemical pathways, increase during a period of drought. The present paper provides an overview of the driving mechanisms adopted by olive trees to face drought stress with the aim of better understand plant-soil interactions.

Description: The prediction of temporal concentration profiles of a transported pollutant in a river is still a subject of ongoing research efforts worldwide. The present paper is aimed at studying the possibility of using Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Networks to evaluate the whole concentration versus time profile at several cross-sections of a river under various flow conditions, using as little information about the river system as possible. In contrast with the earlier neural networks based work on longitudinal dispersion coefficients, this new approach relies more heavily on measurements of concentration collected during tracer tests over a range of flow conditions, but fewer hydraulic and morphological data are needed. The study is based upon 26 tracer experiments performed in a small river in Edinburgh, UK (Murray Burn) at various flow rates in a 540 m long reach. The only data used in this study were concentration measurements collected at 4 cross-sections, distances between the cross-sections and the injection site, time, as well as flow rate and water velocity, obtained according to the data measured at the 1st and 2nd cross-sections. The four main features of concentration versus time profiles at a particular cross-section, namely the peak concentration, the arrival time of the peak at the cross-section, and the shapes of the rising and falling limbs of the profile are modeled, and for each of them a separately designed neural network was used. There was also a variant investigated in which the conservation of the injected mass was assured by adjusting the predicted peak concentration. The neural network methods were compared with the unit peak attenuation curve concept. In general the neural networks predicted the main features of the concentration profiles satisfactorily. The predicted peak concentrations were generally better than those obtained using the unit peak attenuation method, and the method with mass-conservation assured generally performed better than the method that did not account for mass-conservation. Predictions of peak travel time were also better using the neural networks than the unit peak attenuation method. Including more data into the neural network training set clearly improved the prediction of the shapes of the concentration profiles. Similar improvements in peak concentration were less significant and the travel time prediction appeared to be largely unaffected.

Description: For the prediction of episodic acidification large uncertainties are connected to climatic variability and its effect on drought conditions and sea-salt episodes. In this study data on 342 hydrological episodes in 25 Swedish streams, sampled over 10 years, have been analyzed using a recently developed episode model. The results demonstrate that drought is the most important factor modulating the magnitude of the anthropogenic influence on pH and ANC during episodes. These modulating effects are especially pronounced in southern and central Sweden, where the historically high acid deposition has resulted in significant S pools in catchment soils. The results also suggest that the effects of episodic acidification are becoming less severe in many streams, but this amelioration is less clear in coastal streams subject to high levels of sea-salt deposition. Concurrently with the amelioration of the effects of episodic acidification, regional climate models predict that temperatures will increase in Sweden during the coming decades, accompanied by reductions in summer precipitation and more frequent storms during fall and winter in large areas of the country. If these predictions are realized delays in streams' recovery from episodic acidification events can be expected.

Description: Dissolved organic carbon concentrations ([DOC]) in surface waters are increasing in many regions of Europe and North America. These increases are likely driven by a combination of changing climate, recovery from acidification and change in severity of winter storms in coastal areas. INCA-C, a process-based model of climate effects on surface water [DOC], was used to explore the mechanisms by which changing climate controls seasonal to inter-annual patterns of [DOC] in the lake and outflow stream of a small Finnish catchment between 1990 and 2003. Both production in the catchment and mineralization in the lake controlled [DOC] in the lake. Concentrations in the catchment outflow were controlled by rates of DOC production in the surrounding organic soils. The INCA-C simulation results were compared to those obtained using artificial neural networks (ANN). In general, "black box" ANN models provide better fits to observed data but process-based models can identify the mechanism responsible for the observed pattern. A statistically significant increase was observed in both INCA-C modelled and measured annual average [DOC] in the lake. This suggests that some of the observed increase in surface water [DOC] is caused by climate-related processes operating in the lake and catchment. However, a full understanding of surface water [DOC] dynamics can only come from catchment-scale process-based models linking the effects of changing climate and deposition on aquatic and terrestrial environments.

Description: In this study the water logistic system is defined as the interaction of the subsystems water resources, water supply and water demand in terms of water flow. The analysis of a water balance in alpine regions is strongly influenced by both temporal and spatial seasonal fluctuations within these elements, the latter due to the vertical dimension of mountainous areas. Therefore the determination of different seasons plays a key role within the assessment of alpine water logistic systems. In most studies a water balance for a certain region is generated on an annual, monthly or classic 4-seasonal basis. This paper presents a GIS-based multi criteria method to determine an optimal winter and summer period, taking into account different water demand stakeholders, alpine hydrology and the characteristic present day water supply infrastructure of the Alps. Technical snow-making and (winter) tourism were identified as the two major seasonal water demand stakeholders in the study area, which is the Kitzbueheler region in the Austrian Alps. Based upon the geographical datasets mean snow cover start and end date, winter was defined as the period from December to March, and summer as the period from April to November.

Description: In the rural areas of the developing countries, the access to water supply and sanitation services is still largely inadequate. Poor governance of the water sector is frequently singled out as a cause and reforms are required. Studies analyzing the great diversity of restructuring efforts currently being undertaken in the water sector have not succeeded in determining the most appropriate institutional and economic framework for such reforms. Moreover they underline the lack of documentation on actual projects and call for concrete models and tools for improving water and sanitation services (WSS) and for adapting water utility practice to real conditions. In this context, the Vida no Vale (Life in the Valley) project is aimed at bringing universal access to WSS for all inhabitants of both urban and rural areas, in the north-eastern area of the Brazilian State of Minas Gerais. The project takes sustainable development as its guiding principle, and relies on the joint implementation of an innovative technical design, a governance model involving public participation and subsidiarity, and an economic structure combining financial viability and social equity. Designed at a consistent geographical and hydrological scale, it includes the creation of a regional subsidiary of the existing state water company as a keystone element. The institutional organisation also relies on the creation of a public board consisting of the 92 municipalities of the project region and of the State of Minas Gerais. This board will be in charge of the system's governance. The paper will present the first step of the project (2006), consisting of a feasibility study and the implementation of 9 pilot sub-projects. During the feasibility study, the supply, demand and capacity to pay for water services were defined, existing infrastructure appraised, the necessary amount of investment assessed and an innovative operational model and a sustainable management system, including civil society participation, defined. The main features of the Vida no Vale project have been tested in 9 pilot sub-projects, and implemented in municipalities chosen for their low Human Development Index and for the lack of WSS, in both urban and rural areas. A second phase corresponding to the project's final implementation will run from 2007 to 2011. The ongoing successful accomplishment of the Vida no Vale project would make it an exemplary and replicable model for other poor regions.

Description: We studied the changes of geophysical parameters on a soil wall of the testfield Grenzhof (University of Heidelberg). The unsaturated materials investigated range from coarse-grain gravel to sandy loam. Ground-penetrating radar, ultrasound transmission and complex conductivity measurements were applied as geophysical methods. The measured parameters were used to calculate soil parameters such as porosity, water content, density and grain surface area necessary to obtain geohydraulic parameters such as hydraulic conductivity, field capacity and retention parameters. Soil samples were taken and analysed regarding porosity, apparent density, true density and internal surface. The comparison between petrophysical data from the laboratory and from geophysical measurements showed good correlations for the majority of the data.

Description: Controls of stream water NO3 in mountainous and forested catchments are not thoroughly understood. Long-term trends in stream water NO3 are positive, neutral and negative, often apparently independent of trends in N deposition. Here, time series of NO3 in four small acid-sensitive catchments in southern Norway were analysed in order to identify likely drivers of long-term changes in NO3. In two sites, stream water NO3 export declined ca 50% over a period of 25 years while in the other sites NO3 export increased with roughly 20%. Discharge and N deposition alone were poor predictors of these trends. The most distinct trends in NO3 were found in winter and spring. Empirical models explained between 45% and 61% of the variation in weekly concentrations of NO3, and described both upward and downward seasonal trends tolerably well. Key explaining variables were snow depth, discharge, temperature and N deposition. All catchments showed reductions in snow depth and increases in winter discharge. In two inland catchments, located in moderate N deposition areas, these climatic changes appeared to drive the distinct decreases in winter and spring concentrations and fluxes of NO3. In a coast-near mountainous catchment in a low N deposition area, these climatic changes appeared to have the opposite effect, i.e. lead to increases in especially winter NO3. This suggests that the effect of a reduced snow pack may result in both decreased and increased catchment N leaching depending on interactions with N deposition, soil temperature regime and winter discharge.

Description: The probabilistic description of soil moisture dynamics is a relatively new topic in hydrology. The most common ecohydrological models start from the soil water balance, a stochastic differential equation where the unknown quantity is the function of the soil moisture, depending both on spaces and time. Most of existing solutions in literature are obtained in a probabilistic framework and under steady-state condition; even if this last condition allows the analytical handling of the problem, it has considerably simplified the problem by subtracting generalities from it. The steady-state hypothesis, used in many ecohydrological works, appears perfectly applicable in arid and semiarid climatic areas like those of African's or middle American's savannas, but it seems to be no more valid in areas with Mediterranean climate, where, notoriously, the wet season foregoes the growing season, thus recharging the soil moisture. This initial condition, especially for deep rooted vegetation, has a great importance by enabling survival in absence of rainfalls during the growing season and, however, keeping the water stress low during its first period. The aim of this paper is to investigate the soil moisture dynamics using a simple non-steady numerical ecohydrological model. The numerical model is able to reproduce soil moisture probability density function, obtained analytically in previous studies for different climate and soil conditions in steady state conditions. The proposed model gives both the soil moisture time-profile and the vegetation static water stress time-profile. From the former it is possible to extract the probability density function of soil-moisture during the whole growing season, while the latter allows the estimation of the vegetation response to the water stress. Here the differences between the analytical and the numerical probability density functions are presented, showing how the numerical model is able to capture the effects of winter recharge on the soil moisture. The dynamic water stress is numerically evaluated, implicitly taking into account the soil moisture condition at the beginning of the growing season. The model proposed here is applied in the forested river basin of the Eleuterio in Sicily (Italy).

Description: Two branches forming the headwaters of a stream in the Czech Republic were studied. Both streams have similar catchment characteristics and historical deposition; however one is rain-fed and strongly affected by acid atmospheric deposition, the other spring-fed and only moderately acidified. The MAGIC model was used to reconstruct past stream water and soil chemistry of the rain-fed branch, and predict future recovery up to 2050 under current proposed emissions levels. A future increase in air temperature calculated by a regional climate model was then used to derive climate-related scenarios to test possible factors affecting chemical recovery up to 2100. Macroinvertebrates were sampled from both branches, and differences in stream chemistry were reflected in the community structures. According to modelled forecasts, recovery of the rain-fed branch will be gradual and limited, and continued high levels of sulphate release from the soils will continue to dominate stream water chemistry, while scenarios related to a predicted increase temperature will have little impact. The likelihood of colonization of species from the spring-fed branch was evaluated considering the predicted extent of chemical recovery. The results suggest that the possibility of colonization of species from the spring-fed branch to the rain-fed will be limited to only the acid-tolerant stonefly, caddisfly and dipteran taxa in the modelled period.

Description: The amount of sand moving parallel to a coastline forms a prerequisite for many harbour design projects. Such information is currently obtained through various empirical formulae. Despite much research in the past an accurate and reliable estimation of the rate of sand drift has still remained as a problem. The current study addresses this issue through the use of artificial neural networks (ANN). Feed forward networks were developed to predict the sand drift from a variety of causative variables. The best network was selected after trying out many alternatives. In order to improve the accuracy further its outcome was used to develop another network. Such simple two-stage training yielded most satisfactory results. An equation combining the network and a non-linear regression is presented for quick field usage. An attempt was made to see how both ANN and statistical regression differ in processing the input information. The network was validated by confirming its consistency with the underlying physical process.

Description: Spatial patterns as well as temporal dynamics of soil moisture have a major influence on runoff generation. The investigation of these dynamics and patterns can thus yield valuable information on hydrological processes, especially in data scarce or previously ungauged catchments. The combination of spatially scarce but temporally high resolution soil moisture profiles with episodic and thus temporally scarce moisture profiles at additional locations provides information on spatial as well as temporal patterns of soil moisture at the hillslope transect scale. This approach is better suited to difficult terrain (dense forest, steep slopes) than geophysical techniques and at the same time less cost-intensive than a high resolution grid of continuously measuring sensors. Rainfall simulation experiments with dye tracers while continuously monitoring soil moisture response allows for visualization of flow processes in the unsaturated zone at these locations. Data was analyzed at different spacio-temporal scales using various graphical methods, such as space-time colour maps (for the event and plot scale) and indicator maps (for the long-term and hillslope scale). Annual dynamics of soil moisture and decimeter-scale variability were also investigated. The proposed approach proved to be successful in the investigation of flow processes in the unsaturated zone and showed the importance of preferential flow in the Malalcahuello Catchment, a data-scarce catchment in the Andes of Southern Chile. Fast response times of stream flow indicate that preferential flow observed at the plot scale might also be of importance at the hillslope or catchment scale. Flow patterns were highly variable in space but persistent in time. The most likely explanation for preferential flow in this catchment is a combination of hydrophobicity, small scale heterogeneity in rainfall due to redistribution in the canopy and strong gradients in unsaturated conductivities leading to self-reinforcing flow paths.

Description: We studied pavement seam material. This is the soil substrate in joints of pervious pavements in urban areas. It is mostly 1 cm thick and develops from the original seam filling by depositions of all kinds of urban residues, including anthropogenic organic substances. It was investigated, how this unique form of organic matter influences the filter properties of seam material and how the seam material influences heavy metal transport through the pavement. The seam material is characterised by a darker munsell colour, higher organic carbon content, higher surface areas, higher cation exchange capacities, but a lower fraction of high adsorption energy sites compared to the original seam filling. The deposited anthropogenic organic matter itself could be characterised as particulate and non-polar. Compared to natural soils, it has a small surface area and a low surface charge density resulting in a small cation exchange capacity of only 75 cmol(+) kg−1C. The seam material shows stronger sorption of Pb and Cd compared to the original construction sand. The retardation capacity of seam material towards Pb is similar, towards Cd it is much smaller compared to natural soils. The simulated long term displacement scenarios for a street in Berlin do not indicate an acute contamination risk for Pb. For Cd the infiltration from ponds can lead to a displacement of Cd during only one decade.

Description: Rainfall collected twice weekly from 3 nearby UK stations between November 2004 and October 2006 allows local differences in δ18O and δ2H to be observed. Local gradients in δ18Op appear to be of the same order of magnitude as national trends, suggesting the spatial δ18Op picture is more complicated than the one currently available from sparse GNIP coverage. Comparing data from this study with previous work we find that average δ18Op has changed in the UK over the last 20 years concurrent with an average temperature increase although inter-annual controls on the values remain seasonal temperature and the amount of precipitation in each rain event. Climate-isotope relationships observed from the weekly data do not explain the observed decadal scale shifts.

Description: Extreme hydro-meteorological events have become the focus of more and more studies in the last decade. Due to the complexity of the spatial pattern of changes in precipitation processes, it is still hard to establish a clear view of how precipitation has changed and how it will change in the future. In the present study, changes in extreme precipitation and streamflow processes in the Dongjiang River Basin in southern China are investigated. It was shown that little change is observed in annual extreme precipitation in terms of various indices, but some significant changes are found in the precipitation processes on a monthly basis. The result indicates that when detecting climate changes, besides annual indices, seasonal variations in extreme events should be considered as well. Despite of little change in annual extreme precipitation series, significant changes are detected in several annual extreme flood flow and low-flow series, mainly at the stations along the main channel of Dongjiang River, which are affected significantly by the operation of several major reservoirs. The result highlights the importance of evaluating the impacts of human activities in assessing the changes of extreme streamflows. In addition, three non-parametric methods that are not-commonly used by hydro-meteorology community, i.e., Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, Levene's test and quantile test, are introduced and assessed by Monte Carlo simulation in the present study to test for changes in the distribution, variance and the shift of tails of different groups of dataset. Monte Carlo simulation result shows that, while all three methods work well for detecting changes in two groups of data with large data size (e.g., over 200 points in each group) and big difference in distribution parameters (e.g., over 100% increase of scale parameter in Gamma distribution), none of them are powerful enough for small data sets (e.g., less than 100 points) and small distribution parameter difference (e.g., 50% increase of scale parameter in Gamma distribution).

Description: The proportion and origin of groundwater contribution to streamflow from agricultural catchments is relevant to estimation of the effects of nitrate leached from the soil on the quality of surface waters. This study addresses the partitioning of streamflow contributions from near-surface runoff and from groundwater, each with different contributing land area, on a steep pastoral hillslope in a humid climate. The 3 ha headwater catchment of the perennial Pukemanga Stream, in the North Island of New Zealand, was instrumented for continuous observation of climatic data, streamflow and groundwater level. The dynamics of groundwater levels and groundwater contribution to streamflow were analysed by means of a one-parameter, eigenvalue-eigenfunction description of a 1-D aquifer model. Model results for seven years of daily data predict that 36–44% of the topographical catchment contributes groundwater to the stream. The remaining groundwater generated within the catchment contributes to streamflow outside the catchment. After correction for contributing areas, groundwater was calculated to be 58–83% of observed annual catchment streamflow or 78–93% of flow generation on a unit area basis. Concurrent hourly data for streamflow and groundwater levels at two sites indicate the dynamic behaviour of a local groundwater system. Groundwater flow dynamics that support the perennial nature of this headwater stream are consistent with the size of the groundwater body, porosity of the subsurface material, and hydraulic conductivity derived from partitioning of streamflow contributions.

Description: The sensitivity of water quality to climate change was assessed in the Seine River (France) with the biogeochemical model RIVERSTRAHLER, which describes the transformations and fluxes of C, N, P and Si between the main microbiological populations, the water column and the sediment, along the entire river network. Point and diffuse sources are prescribed, stream temperature undergoes a sinusoidal annual cycle constrained by observations, and runoff is calculated by a physically-based land surface model. The reference simulation, using meteorological forcing of 1986–1990 and point sources of 1991, compares very well with observations. The climate change simulated by a general circulation model under the SRES emission scenario A2 was used to simulate the related changes in runoff and stream temperature. To this end, a statistical analysis was undertaken of the relationships between the water and air temperatures in the Seine watershed over 1993–1999, using 88 points that correctly sampled the variability of the tributaries. Most of stream temperature variance was explained by the lagged moving average of air temperature, with parameters that depended on Strahler stream order. As an interesting simplification, stream temperature changes could be approximated by air temperature changes. This modelling framework was used to analyse of the relative influence of the water warming and discharge reduction induced by climate change on water quality in Paris and downstream. Discharge reduction increased phytoplankton growth and oxygen deficits. Water warming decreased dissolved oxygen, increased phytoplankton biomass during the growth period, and reduced it afterwards, when loss factors dominate. It was also shown that these impacts were enhanced when point source inputs of nutrient and organic matter increased.

Description: The traditional tillage implement, the Maresha plow, and the tillage systems that require repeated and cross plowing have caused poor rainfall partitioning, land degradation and hence low water productivity in Ethiopia. Conservation tillage could alleviate these problems. However, no-till can not be feasible for smallholder farmers in semi-arid regions of Ethiopia because of difficulties in maintaining soil cover due to low rainfall and communal grazing and because of high costs of herbicides. Strip tillage systems may offer a solution. This study was initiated to test strip tillage systems using implements that were modified forms of the Maresha plow, and to evaluate the impacts of the new tillage systems on water balance and grain yields of maize (Zea mays XX). Experiments were conducted in two dry semi arid areas called Melkawoba and Wulinchity, in the central Rift Valley of Ethiopia during 2003–2005. Strip tillage systems that involved cultivating planting lines at a spacing of 0.75 m using the Maresha plow followed by subsoiling along the same lines (STS) and without subsoiling (ST) were compared with the traditional tillage system of 3 to 4 times plowing with the Maresha plow (CONV). Soil moisture was monitored to a depth of 1.8 m using Time Domain Reflectometer while surface runoff was measured using rectangular trough installed at the bottom of each plot. STS resulted in the least surface runoff (Qs=17 mm-season−1), the highest transpiration (T=196 mm-season−1), the highest grain yields (Y=2130 kg-ha−1) and the highest water productivity using total evaporation (WPET=0.67 kg-m−3) followed by ST (Qs=25 mm-season−1, T=178 mm-season−1, Y=1840 kg-ha−1, WPET=0.60 kg-m−3) and CONV (Qs=40 mm-season−1,T=158 mm-season−1, Y=1720 kg-ha−1, WPET=0.58 kg-m−3). However, when the time between the last tillage operation and planting of maize was more than 26 days, the reverse occurred. There was no statistically significant change in soil physical and chemical properties after three years of experimenting with different tillage systems.

Description: In this approach, exploration of the cost function space was performed with an inexpensive surrogate function, not the expensive original function. The Design and Analysis of Computer Experiments(DACE) surrogate function, which is one type of approximate models, which takes correlation function for error was employed. The results for Monte Carlo Sampling, Latin Hypercube Sampling and Design and Analysis of Computer Experiments(DACE) approximate model have been compared. The results show that DACE model has a good potential for predicting the trend of simulation results. The case study of this document was WATCLASS hydrologic model calibration on Smokey-River watershed.

Description: The paper compares two independent approaches to estimate soil moisture at the regional scale over a 4625 km2 catchment (Liebenbergsvlei, South Africa). The first estimate is derived from a physically-based hydrological model (TOPKAPI). The second estimate is derived from the scatterometer on board on the European Remote Sensing satellite (ERS). Results show a very good correspondence between the modelled and remotely sensed soil moisture, illustrated over two selected seasons of 8 months by regression R2 coefficients lying between 0.78 and 0.92. Such a close similarity between these two different, independent approaches is very promising for (i) remote sensing in general (ii) the use of hydrological models to back-calculate and disaggregate the satellite soil moisture estimate and (iii) for hydrological models to assimilate the remotely sensed soil moisture.

Description: In recent years the frequency of high-flow events on the Meuse (northwest Europe) has been relatively great, and flooding has become a major research theme. To date, research has focused on observed discharge records of the last century and simulations of the coming century. However, it is difficult to delineate changes caused by human activities (land use change and greenhouse gas emissions) and natural fluctuations on these timescales. To address this problem we coupled a climate model (ECBilt-CLIO-VECODE) and a hydrological model (STREAM) to simulate daily Meuse discharge in two time-slices: 4000–3000 BP (natural situation), and 1000–2000 AD (includes anthropogenic influence). For 4000–3000 BP the basin is assumed to be almost fully forested; for 1000–2000 AD we reconstructed land use based on historical sources. For 1000–2000 AD the simulated mean annual discharge (260.9 m³ s−1) is significantly higher than for 4000–3000 BP (244.8 m³ s−1), and the frequency of large high-flow events (discharge 〉3000 m³ s−1) is higher (recurrence time decreases from 77 to 65 years). On a millennial timescale almost all of this increase can be ascribed to land use changes (especially deforestation); the effects of climatic change are insignificant. For the 20th Century, the simulated mean discharge (270.0 m³ s−1) is higher than in any other century studied, and is ca. 2.5% higher than in the 19th Century (despite an increase in evapotranspiration). Furthermore, the recurrence time of large high-flow events is almost twice as short as under natural conditions (recurrence time decreases from 77 to 40 years). On this timescale climate change (strong increase in annual and winter precipitation) overwhelmed land use change as the dominant forcing mechanism.

Description: Subsurface storm flow (SSF) can play a key role for the runoff generation at hillslopes. Quantifications of SSF suffer from the limited understanding of how SSF is formed and how it varies in time and space. This study concentrates on the temporal variability of SSF formation. Controlled sprinkling experiments at three experimental slopes were replicated with varying precipitation intensity and varying antecedent precipitation. SSF characteristics were observed with hydrometric measurements and tracer experiments. SSF response was affected in different ways and to varying degree by changes of precipitation intensity and antecedent precipitation. The study showed that the influence of antecedent soil moisture on SSF response depends on the type of SSF formation. Formation of subsurface stormflow was hardly influenced by the increase of precipitation intensity. As a consequence, subsurface flow rates were not increased by higher precipitation intensity. Different soil structures determined runoff formation at different precipitation intensities. Saturation and flow formation occurred at the base of the soil, but also within the topsoil during high precipitation intensity. This implies that timing and magnitude of flow response can change substantially at different precipitation intensities.

Description: The Mediterranean environment is characterized by strong temporal variations in rainfall volume and intensity, soil moisture and vegetation cover along the year. These factors play a key role on soil erosion. The aim of this work is to identify different erosive periods in function of the temporal changes in rainfall and runoff characteristics (erosivity, maximum intensity and number of erosive events), soil properties (soil erodibility in relation to freeze-thaw processes and soil moisture content) and current tillage practices in a set of agricultural fields in a mountainous area of the Central Pyrenees in NE Spain. To this purpose the rainfall and runoff erosivity (R), the soil erodibility (K) and the cover-management (C) factors of the empirical RUSLE soil loss model were used. The R, K and C factors were calculated at monthly scale. The first erosive period extends from July to October and presents the highest values of erosivity (87.8 MJ mm ha−1 h−1), maximum rainfall intensity (22.3 mm h−1) and monthly soil erosion (0.10 Mg ha−1 month−1) with the minimum values of duration of erosive storms, freeze-thaw cycles, soil moisture content and soil erodibility (0.007 Mg h MJ−1 mm−1). This period includes the harvesting and the plowing tillage practices. The second erosive period has a duration of two months, from May to June, and presents the lowest total and monthly soil losses (0.04 Mg ha−1 month−1) that correspond to the maximum protection of the soil by the crop-cover (C factor = 0.05) due to the maximum stage of the growing season and intermediate values of rainfall and runoff erosivity, maximum rainfall intensity and soil erodibility. The third erosive period extends from November to April and has the minimum values of rainfall erosivity (17.5 MJ mm ha−1 h−1) and maximum rainfall intensity (6.0 mm h−1) with the highest number of freeze-thaw cycles, soil moisture content and soil erodibility (0.021 Mg h MJ−1 mm−1) that explain the high value of monthly soil loss (0.09 Mg ha−1 month−1). The interactions between the rainfall erosivity, soil erodibility, and cover-management factors explain the similar predicted soil losses for the first and the third erosive periods in spite of the strong temporal differences in the values of the three RUSLE factors. To optimize agricultural practices and to promote sustainable strategies for the preservation of fragile Mediterranean agrosystems it is necessary to delay plowing till October, especially in dryland agriculture regions. Thus, the protective role of the crop residues will extend until September when the greatest rainfall occurs together with the highest runoff erosivity and soil losses.

Description: The L-moment-based regionalization approach developed by Hosking and Wallis (1997) is a frequently used tool in regional frequency modeling of heavy precipitation events. The method consists of the delineation of homogeneous pooling groups with a fixed structure, which may, however, lead to undesirable step-like changes in growth curves and design value estimates in the case of a transition from one pooling group to another. Unlike the standard methodology, the region-of-influence (ROI) approach does not make use of groups of sites (regions) with a fixed structure; instead, each site has its own "region", i.e. a group of sites that are sufficiently similar to the site of interest. The aim of the study is to develop a version of the ROI approach, which was originally proposed in order to overcome inconsistencies involved in flood frequency analysis, for the modeling of probabilities of heavy precipitation amounts. Various settings of the distance metric and pooled weighting factors are evaluated, and a comparison with the standard regional frequency analysis over the area of Slovakia is performed. The advantages of the ROI approach are assessed by means of simulation studies. It is demonstrated that almost any setting of parameters of the ROI method yields estimates of growth curves and design values at individual sites that are superior to the standard regional and at-site estimates.

Description: The present research was conducted at an experimental watershed in the prefecture of Attica, Greece, using the selected observed rainfall-runoff events from a four-year time period. The objectives of this study were two: The first was the determination of the initial abstraction Ia – watershed storage S ratio. The average ratio (Ia/S) was equal to 0.014. The corresponding ratio at a subwatershed was 0.037. The difference was attributed to the different spatial distribution of landuses at the extent of the watershed. The second objective of the study was to examine the effect of the SCS empirical equation on hydrograph simulation. This was investigated through the comparison between the observed and two different simulated hydrographs at each one out of eighteen selected storm events. The simulated hydrographs were calculated by applying on the watershed's unit hydrograph two time distributions of excess rainfall that derived from the SCS method using two different approaches. In the first approach, the initial abstraction was determined from the observed rainfall-runoff data, while in the second, it was calculated using the SCS empirical equation. It was found that the SCS empirical equation estimates greater amount of initial abstraction and leads to the delayed start of the excess rainfall and the simulated runoff. This resulted in the overestimation of the peak flow rate and the time to peak at the majority of the storm events.

Description: This paper reported a dramatic channel incision (〉10 m in the deepest cut) during the past 10 years or so in the lower Pearl River, the second largest river in terms of water discharge in China. The channel incision had caused changes both in the channel geometry as well as in the river hydraulics. Also, the water exchange between the two major tributaries of the Pearl River, the Xijiang and Beijing, had been significantly changed due to the channel incision. The rapid channel incision was principally the result of extensive sand mining in the lower Pearl River and the delta region due to the booming economy in the Pearl Delta region. Slight increase of water discharge and significant decrease of sediment load since the early 1990s in both the Xijiang and Beijiang also likely contributed to the observed dramatic river bed donwcutting to some extent. This has important implications for river management, as the large Chinese rivers have seen a dramatic depletion of sediment fluxes due to the combined effects of declining rainfall, dam constructions, water diversion, reforestation and afforestation, and sediment mining over the recent decades.

Description: The Bistrita River Basin (a length of 283 km, a surface of 7039 km2, a mean discharge of 65 m3/s) is one of the most important tributary of the Siret River, which is the second major affluent of the Danube River. Heavily influenced by hydraulic management and highly polluted by agricultural and urban activities in some stretches, the Bistrita river has been studied in the framework of the Diminish Project (LIFE03 ENV/ RO/000539), funded by the Life Environment Program. The project aims to support the implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive and to combat the nutrient pollution by developing an integrated, on-line, GIS-based support system for the management of the water quality in relation with human activities, using socio-economical analysis, at the scale of the river catchments. Based on modeling approaches the decisional system allows to predict which strategy will lead to the most effective reduction of nutrient concentrations within the Bistrita hydrological network and of nutrient loads transported by the Siret River into the Danube. The consequences of the nutrient pollution are discussed for two basin areas, from two points of view: i) the effects of point and diffuse pollution for surface and groundwater, on the basis of the basin response to the changing pressures over the river catchments (industrial, rural, urban, agricultural changes), ii) the economical valuation of environmental costs and cost-effectiveness of the measures, that can be proposed from socio-economic scenarios, for reaching the "good ecological status" of this river.

Description: Our best estimates of 1 April snow water equivalent (SWE) in the Cascade Mountains of Washington State indicate a substantial (roughly 15–35%) decline from mid-century to 2006, with larger declines at low elevations and smaller declines or increases at high elevations. This range of values includes estimates from observations and hydrologic modeling, reflects a range of starting points between about 1930 and 1970 and also reflects uncertainties about sampling. The most important sampling issue springs from the fact that half the 1 April SWE in the Cascades is found below about 1000 m, where sampling was poor before 1945. Separating the influences of temperature and precipitation on 1 April SWE in several ways, it is clear that long-term trends are dominated by trends in temperature, whereas variability in precipitation adds "noise" to the time series. Consideration of spatial and temporal patterns of change rules out natural variations like the Pacific Decadal Oscillation as the sole cause of the decline. Regional warming has clearly played a role, but it is not yet possible to quantify how much of that regional warming is related to greenhouse gas emissions.

Description: Web services support the integration and interoperability of Web-based applications and enable machine-to-machine interaction. The concepts of web services and open distributed architecture were applied to the development of T-DSS, the prototype customised for web based hydro-information systems. T-DSS provides mapping services, database related services and access to remote components, with special emphasis placed on output flexibility (e.g. multilingualism), where SOAP web services are mainly used for communication. The remote components are represented above all by distant data and mapping services (e.g. eteorological predictions), modelling and analytical systems (currently HEC-HMS, Modflow and additional utilities), which support decision making in water management.

Description: Material flow analysis and environmental contamination analysis are merged into a flux-flow analysis (F2A) as illustrated for the metal circulation in the Seine River catchment. F2A combines about 30 metal flows in the anthroposphere (14 million people) and/or metal fluxes in the environment (atmosphere, soils, and aquatic system) originating from two dozens of sources. The nature and quality of data is very heterogeneous going from downscaled national economic statistics to upscaled daily environmental surveys. A triple integration is performed: space integration over the catchment (65000 km2), time integration for the 1950–2000 trend analysed at 5 year resolution, and a conceptual integration resulting in two F2A indicators. Despite the various data sources an average metal circulation is established for the 1994–2003 period and illustrated for zinc: (i) metal circulation in the anthroposphere is now two orders of magnitude higher than river outputs, (ii) long term metal storage, and their potential leaks, in soils, wastedumps and structures is also orders of magnitude higher than present river fluxes. Trend analysis is made through two F2A indicators, the per capita excess load at the river outlet and the leakage ratio (excess fluxes/metal demand). From 1950 to 2000, they both show a ten fold improvement of metal recycling while the metal demand has increased by 2.5 to 5 for Cd, Cu, Cr, Pb and Zn, and the population by 50%.

Description: Leaf litter overlying forested floors are important for erosion control and slope stability, but also reduces pasture growth in silvopastoral systems. Little information exists regarding the value of percolation and storage capacity parameters for litter layers. These estimates are needed for modelling better management practices for leaf litter. Therefore, this work measured the effect of four rainfall intensities: 9.8, 30.2, 40.4 and 70.9 mm h−1 on the hydrological response of layers of three materials: recently senesced poplar leaves, fresh grass and woodchips. Maximum storage (Cmax), defined as the detention of water immediately before rainfall cessation, increased with rainfall intensity. The magnitude of the increment was 0.2 mm between the lowest and highest rainfall intensities. Mean values of Cmax were: 1.27, 1.51, 1.67 and 1.65 mm for poplar leaves; 0.63 0.77, 0.73 and 0.76 for fresh grass and; 1.64, 2.23, 2.21 and 2.16 for woodchips. Drainage parameters were: 9.9, 8.8 and 2.2 mm−1 for poplar, grass and woodchips layers. An underlying soil matrix influenced the drainage flow from poplar leaf layers producing pseudo-Hortonian overland flow, but this occurred only when the rainfall intensity was 40.4 and 70.9 mm h−1 and accounted for 0.4 and 0.8‰ of total drainage. On the other hand, the presence of a poplar leaf layer had a damping effect on the drainage rate from the underlying soil matrix, particularly at intermediate rainfall intensities: 30.2 or 40.4 mm h−1.

Description: Biogenic silica (BSi) and phosphorous (P) accumulation were investigated in sediment cores from Karlskärsviken, a bay of Lake Mälaren. The aim was to understand and quantify environmental changes since the Middle Ages, with focus on industrial times, and to evaluate anthropogenic influences on the bay's water quality. The BSi accumulation in the sediments is a better indicator of former nutrient trophy than P accumulation and for this reason a BSi inferred P content, BSi-P, is calculated. There is an increasing trend of BSi-P content in the bay since the Middle Ages, with a small decrease in the inner bay section during the last decades. In Karlskärsviken, the shallow inner section of the bay, where the water quality is dominated by loading from the bay catchment area, is less nutritious than the water in the outer section, which is influenced by the main streams in the Lake Mälaren. The P content in the water column is presently higher than in the mid nineteenth century, and the P loading to Karlskärsviken is not found to have changed since the 1960s and 1970s.

Description: The aim of this paper is to analyse interaction between Paris and the Seine during the industrial era, 1790–1970, a period marked by strong population growth, changes in techniques, and the absence of specific legislation on environmental issues. The viewpoint focuses on exchanges of waters and wastes between city and river, quantifying them and tracing evolution in the light of the strategies implemented by the stakeholders in charge. The study combines industrial ecology, local history and the history of technology. From 1790 to 1850, waste matters, and especially excreta, were considered as raw materials, not refuse: they generated real profits. The removal of human excreta aimed not only at improving urban hygiene, but at producing the fertilizers needed in rural areas. Discharging them into the river was out of the question. But after the 1860s, several factors upset this exploitation, notably domestic water supply. Even so, Parisian engineers continued to process sewage using techniques that would not only ensure hygiene but also conciliate economic and agricultural interests. Both of these early periods are thus noteworthy for a relative limitation of the river's deterioration by urban wastes. Not until the 1920s, when domestic water supply had become the rule and excreta came to be considered as worthless waste, was the principle of valorisation abandoned. This led to important and long-lasting pollution of the Seine, aggravating the industrial pollution that had been in evidence since the 1840s. Analysing the priorities that led to the adoption of one principle or another in matters of urban hygiene and techniques, with the causes and consequences of such changes, enables us to understand the complex relations between Paris and the Seine. From raw material to waste matter, from river to drain, the concept of quality in environment remains the underlying theme.

Description: The Water Framework Directive (WFD; directive 2000/60/EC) was created to ensure the sustainable use of water resources in the European Union. A central guideline included throughout the directive is a call for the participation of stakeholders in the management of these resources. Involving stakeholders is an important step to ensure that catchment management plans take into consideration local experience in the development of these plans and the impact of the plans on local interests. This paper describes and analyses the results of a series of workshops to facilitate implementation of the WFD at a catchment level based on the stakeholder participation model, CATCH. To test the usefulness of the stakeholder participation model CATCH for water management in a catchment area, a sub-catchment in an alpine valley in the north-east of Italy, the Alta Valsugana in the Province of Trento, was chosen as the setting for a series of workshops. In this valley water is fundamental for activities associated with agriculture, domestic use, energy production, sports and recreation. In the recent past the valley has had serious problems related to water quality and quantity. Implementation of water management plans under the WFD may lead to conflicts within the catchment between different stakeholder interest groups. Including stakeholders in the development of management plans not only follows the guidelines of the WFD but also could result in a more locally adapted and acceptable plan for the catchment. A new stakeholder analysis methodology was developed and implemented in order to identify the relevant stakeholders of the area and then two sets of workshops involving the key stakeholders identified were conducted in Spring 2006. The CATCH meetings were a new experience for the participants, who had to deal with both the principles of the WFD in general and the participation requirement in particular. During the meetings, the CATCH model played a very important role in structuring the participatory process. It provided a general framework consisting of a sequence of steps that helped the participants to reach the goal of the process; the identification and evaluation of measures to improve water management in the catchment. This test of the CATCH model showed it to be a dynamic and flexible tool, useful for structuring and guiding the participation process, without imposing undue restrictions on influencing the outcome of stakeholder participation in a small catchment.

Description: In the early days of Systems Analysis the focus was on providing tools for optimisation, modelling and simulation for use by experts. Now there is a recognition of the need to develop and disseminate tools to assist in making decisions, negotiating compromises and communicating preferences that can easily be used by stakeholders without the need for specialist training. The Water Framework Directive (WFD) requires public participation and thus provides a strong incentive for progress in this direction. This paper places the new paradigm in the context of the classical one and discusses some of the new approaches which can be used in the implementation of the WFD. These include multi-criteria decision support methods suitable for environmental problems, adaptive management, cognitive mapping, social learning and cooperative design and group decision-making. Concordance methods (such as ELECTRE) and the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) are identified as multi-criteria methods that can be readily integrated into Decision Support Systems (DSS) that deal with complex environmental issues with very many criteria, some of which are qualitative. The expanding use of the new paradigm provides an opportunity to observe and learn from the interaction of stakeholders with the new technology and to assess its effectiveness. This is best done by trained sociologists fully integrated into the processes. The WINCOMS research project is an example applied to the implementation of the WFD in Ireland.

Description: Due to its high activities in groundwater, the radionuclide 222Rn is a sensitive natural tracer to detect and quantify groundwater inflow into lakes, provided the comparatively low activities in the lakes can be measured accurately. Here we present a simple method for radon measurements in the low-level range down to 3 Bq m−3, appropriate for groundwater-influenced lakes, together with a concept to derive inflow rates from the radon budget in lakes. The analytical method is based on a commercially available radon detector and combines the advantages of established procedures with regard to efficient sampling and sensitive analysis. Large volume (12 l) water samples are taken in the field and analyzed in the laboratory by equilibration with a closed air loop and alpha spectrometry of radon in the gas phase. After successful laboratory tests, the method has been applied to a small dredging lake without surface in- or outflow in order to estimate the groundwater contribution to the hydrological budget. The inflow rate calculated from a 222Rn balance for the lake is around 530 m3 per day, which is comparable to the results of previous studies. In addition to the inflow rate, the vertical and horizontal radon distribution in the lake provides information on the spatial distribution of groundwater inflow to the lake. The simple measurement and sampling technique encourages further use of radon to examine groundwater-lake interaction.

Description: The literature on transboundary river management suggests that institutions play an important role in bringing cooperation about. However, the knowledge on how they should be designed in order to do so remains limited. One way to learn more about adequate institutional design is to assess the effectiveness of existing regimes, and to trace the causal relationships leading to the respective outcomes. In order to gain further insights into the relationship of institutional design and regime effectiveness, this paper presents a study on the water quality regime of the International Commission for the Protection of the Elbe (ICPE). The analysis is based on a review of pertinent documents and ten qualitative interviews with Czech and German Commission members and NGO representatives. Particular emphasis has been put on determining the ICPE's specific contribution and the no-regime counterfactual as well as on the perceived expedience of the institutional arrangements. The study shows that overall due to external as well as internal institutional factors the ICPE proved relatively successful, and as such it also provides insights into how institutions matter: The commission served as platform for joint problem solving by identifying priorities for action. These international obligations increased the power of national administrations and their access to funds. At the same time, the Commission's reporting to the public served as an enforcement mechanism. However, the ICPE's contribution towards achieving the various goals varied significantly between the different areas of activity. It was high where the main responsibility for action was with the public authorities, such as in the area of wastewater treatment and the establishment of an international alarm plan and model. It was practically non existent in the reduction of non-point pollution from agriculture, where the success depended on the behavior of individual private actors (farmers). From a methodological point of view, the paper shows opportunities and limits of a combined quantitative and qualitative approach in determining regime effectiveness.

Description: The classical formulation of the coupled hydroelectrical flow in porous media is based on a linear formulation of two coupled constitutive equations for the electrical current density and the seepage velocity of the water phase and obeying Onsager's reciprocity. This formulation shows that the streaming current density is controlled by the gradient of the fluid pressure of the water phase and a streaming current coupling coefficient that depends on the so-called zeta potential. Recently a new formulation has been introduced in which the streaming current density is directly connected to the seepage velocity of the water phase and to the excess of electrical charge per unit pore volume in the porous material. The advantages of this formulation are numerous. First this new formulation is more intuitive not only in terms of constitutive equation for the generalized Ohm's law but also in specifying boundary conditions for the influence of the flow field upon the streaming potential. With the new formulation, the streaming potential coupling coefficient shows a decrease of its magnitude with permeability in agreement with published results. The new formulation is also easily extendable to non-viscous laminar flow problems (high Reynolds number ground water flow in cracks for example) and to unsaturated conditions with applications to the vadose zone. We demonstrate here that this formulation is suitable to model self-potential signals in the field. We investigate infiltration of water from an agricultural ditch, vertical infiltration of water into a sinkhole, and preferential horizontal flow of ground water in a paleochannel. For the three cases reported in the present study, a good match is obtained between the finite element simulations performed with the finite element code Comsol Multiphysics 3.3 and field observations. Finally, this formulation seems also very promising for the inversion of the geometry of ground water flow from the monitoring of self-potential signals.

Description: The spatial distribution of snow water equivalent (SWE) is modelled as a two parameter gamma distribution. The parameters of the distribution are dynamical in that they are functions of the number of accumulation and ablation events and the temporal correlation of accumulation and ablation events. The estimated spatial variability is compared to snow course observations from the alpine catchments Norefjell and Aursunden in Southern Norway. A fixed snow course at Norefjell was measured 26 times during the snow season, which showed that the spatial coefficient of variation change during the snow season with a decreasing trend from the start of the accumulation period and a sharp increase in the ablation period. The gamma distribution with dynamical parameters reproduced the observed spatial statistical features of SWE well both at Norefjell and Aursunden. Also the shape of simulated spatial distribution of SWE agreed well with the observed at Norefjell. The temporal correlation tends to be positive for both accumulation and ablation events. However, at the start of ablation, a better fit between modelled and observed spatial standard deviation of SWE is obtained by using negative correlation between SWE and melt.

Description: The use of Artificial Intelligence methods is becoming increasingly common in the modeling and forecasting of hydrological and water resource processes. In this study, applicability of Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) methods, Generalized Regression Neural Networks (GRNN) and Feed Forward Neural Networks (FFNN), for forecasting of daily river flow is investigated and the Seyhan catchment, located in the south of Turkey, is chosen as a case study. Totally, 5114 daily river flow data are obtained from river flow gauges station of Üçtepe (1818) on Seyhan River between the years 1986 and 2000. The data set are divided into three subgroups, training, testing and verification. The training and testing data set include totally 5114 daily river flow data and the number of verification data points is 731. The river flow forecasting models having various input structures are trained and tested to investigate the applicability of ANFIS and ANN methods. The results of ANFIS, GRNN and FFNN models for both training and testing are evaluated and the best fit forecasting model structure and method is determined according to criteria of performance evaluation. The best fit model is also trained and tested by traditional statistical methods and the performances of all models are compared in order to get more effective evaluation. Moreover ANFIS, GRNN and FFNN models are also verified by verification data set including 731 daily river flow data at the time period 1998–2000 and the results of models are compared. The results demonstrate that ANFIS model is superior to the GRNN and FFNN forecasting models, and ANFIS can be successfully applied and provide high accuracy and reliability for daily River flow forecasting.

Description: The spatial distribution of saturated areas is an important consideration in numerous applications, such as water resource planning or sighting of management practices. However, in humid well vegetated climates where runoff is produced by saturation excess processes on hydrologically active areas (HAA) the delineation of these areas can be difficult and time consuming. Much of the non-point source pollution in these watersheds originates from these HAAs. Thus, a technique that can simply and reliably predict these areas would be a powerful tool for scientists and watershed managers tasked with implementing practices to improve water quality. Remotely sensed data is a source of spatial information and could be used to identify HAAs, should a proper technique be developed. The objective of this study is to develop a methodology to determine the spatial variability of saturated areas using a temporal sequence of remotely sensed images. The Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) was derived from medium resolution LANDSAT 7 ETM+ imagery collected over seven months in the Town Brook watershed in the Catskill Mountains of New York State and used to characterize the areas that were susceptible to saturation. We found that within a single landcover type, saturated areas were characterized by the soil surface water content when the vegetation was dormant and leaf water content of vegetation during the growing season. The resulting HAA map agreed well with both observed and spatially distributed computer simulated saturated areas. This methodology appears promising for delineating saturated areas in the landscape.

Description: As products of both natural and social systems, rivers are highly complex historical objects. We show in this paper that historical analysis works on two different levels: one level, which we call "structural", shows the materiality of the riverine environment as the spatial-temporal product of natural factors and human impacts (bed and course alterations, pollution, etc.). On a second level – "semiotic" – we show that river systems are also social constructs and the subjects of ancient and diverse management practices. The quality of a river will be a function of the dialectical interaction between both levels. Historical analysis can uncover the inherited constraints that bear upon current management practices. To help substantiate this analytical framework, we analyse the case of the Moselle river in eastern France by using archival sources and statistical data. Severely impaired by industrial discharges from iron, coal and salt industries between the 1875s and the early 1980s, the waters of the Moselle became the subject of a social consensus between stakeholders that prevented the implementation of efficient pollution management policies until the 1990s. The example urges caution on the pervasiveness of participatory approaches to river management: social consensus does not necessarily benefit the environment.

Description: Rivers in developed regions are under significant stress due to nutrient enrichment generated mainly by human activities. Excess nitrogen and phosphorus emissions are the product of complex dynamic systems influenced by various factors such as demographic, socio-economic and technological development. Using a Catalan river catchment, La Tordera (North-East of Spain), as a case study of an integrated and interdisciplinary environmental assessment of nutrient flows, we present and discuss the development of socio-economic scenarios through a participatory process for the sustainable management of the anthropogenic sources of nutrients, nitrogen and phosphorus. In this context, scenarios are an appropriate tool to assist nutrient emissions modelling, and to assess impacts, possible pathways for socio-economic development and associated uncertainties. Evaluated against the 1993–2003 baseline period, scenarios target the 2030 horizon, i.e., through the implementation process of the Water Framework Directive (Directive 2000/60/EC). After a critical examination of the methodology used in the participatory development of socio-economic scenarios, we present four possible futures (or perspectives) for the Catalan river catchment conceived by stakeholders invited to a workshop. Keys to the success of such a participatory process were trust, which enhanced openness, and disagreements, which fostered the group's creativity for scenario development. The translation of narrative socio-economic scenarios into meaningful nutrient emission scenarios is also presented. By integrating findings of natural sciences and socio-economic analysis, we aim to assist decision makers and stakeholders in evaluating optimal management strategies for the anthropogenic sources of nitrogen and phosphorus.

Description: The variable parameter Muskingum-Cunge (MC) flood routing approach, together with several variants proposed in the literature, does not fully preserve the mass balance, particularly when dealing with very mild slopes (

Description: This paper discusses the significance of voluntary arrangements for the water and agricultural policies in the European Union. The current implementation of the European Water Framework Directive (WFD) and the reform of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) require new approaches in water management. As many case studies have shown, co-operative agreements (CAs) between water companies, farmers and authorities can help to reduce environmental pressures on water bodies. The main reasons for that are: i) water companies are ready to advise and financially support farmers in changing production methods; ii) changes of farming practices are tailored to the site-specific requirements; iii) farmers and water companies are interested in minimising the costs and environmental pressures as they benefit, for example, from modernization of farming methods, and reductions in cost of water treatment, and iv) voluntarily agreed commitments to change farming practices are often stricter than statutory rules. Moreover, precautionary rather than remedial measures are preferred. Tackling diffuse pollution is one of the main concerns of the WFD. CAs can enhance the cost-effectiveness of actions within the programmes of measures so that good water status is achieved by 2015. In CAs all relevant stakeholders, located in catchment areas of agricultural usage, can be involved. Thus, they can help to foster integrated water resources management. In particular, disproportionate costs of changing farming practices can be identified. With regard to the recent CAP reform, financial support for farmers will be linked to compliance with environmental standards and further commitments. This concerns both direct payments and agri-environmental programmes. The experience gained in CAs can provide information on best agricultural practices. Informed farmers are more ready to meet environmental requirements. Because CAs implement the most cost-effective changes in farming practice, it can be assumed that farmers will not face considerable costs due to the new EU water and agricultural policies. Some examples of CAs are described and the significance of CAs in the implementation of the WFD and CAP reform will be highlighted. The article closes with an outlook on the needs of future research activities.

Description: The Waikoropupu Springs, a large karst resurgence 4 km from the coast, are supplied by the Arthur Marble Aquifer (AMA) underlying the Takaka Valley, South Island, New Zealand. New evidence on the recharge sources in the catchment, combined with previous results, is used to establish a new recharge model for the AMA. Combined with the oxygen-18 mass balance, this yields a quantitative description of the inputs and outputs to the aquifer. It shows that the Main Spring is sourced mainly from the karst uplands (74%), with smaller contributions from the Upper Takaka River (18%) and valley rainfall (8%), while Fish Creek Spring contains mostly Upper Takaka River water (50%). In addition, much of the Upper Takaka River contribution to the aquifer (58%) bypasses the springs and is discharged offshore via submarine springs. The chemical concentrations of the Main Spring show input of 0.5% of sea water on average, which varies with flow and derives from the deep aquifer. Tritium measurements spanning 40 years, and CFC-11 measurements, give a mean residence time of 8 years for the Main Spring water using the preferred two-component model. Our conceptual flow model, based on the flow, chloride, oxygen-18 and age measurements, invokes two different flow systems with different recharge sources to explain the flow within the AMA. One system contains deeply penetrating old water with mean age 10.2 years and water volume 3 km3, recharged from the karst uplands. The other, at shallow levels below the valley floor, has much younger water, with mean age 1.2 years and water volume 0.4 km3, recharged by Upper Takaka River and valley rainfall. The flow systems contribute in different proportions to the Main Spring, Fish Creek Springs and offshore springs. Their very different behaviours, despite being in the same aquifer, are attributed to the presence of a diorite intrusive below the surface of the lower valley, which diverts the deep flow towards the Waikoropupu Springs and allows much of the shallow flow to pass over the intrusive and escape via submarine springs.

Description: The paper reviews critical processes for the land-sea fluxes of biogenic elements (C, N, P, Si) in the Baltic Sea catchment and discusses possible future scenarios as a consequence of improved sewage treatment, agricultural practices, increased hydropower demand and global warming, i.e., changes in hydrological patterns. These most significant drivers will not only change the total amount of nutrient inputs and fluxes of organic and inorganic forms of carbon to the Baltic Sea, their ratio (C:N:P:Si) will alter as well with consequences for phytoplankton species composition in the Baltic Sea. In summary, we propose that N fluxes will increase due to higher live stock densities in those countries recently acceded to the EU, whereas P and Si fluxes will decrease due to an increase in sewage treatment in these new EU member states and with further damming and still eutrophic states of many lakes in the entire Baltic Sea catchment. This might eventually decrease cyanobacteria blooms in the Baltic but increase the potential for other nuisance blooms. Dinoflagellates will be substituting diatoms that even today grow below their optimal growth conditions due to low Si concentrations in some regions of the Baltic Sea. C fluxes will probably increase from the boreal part of the Baltic Sea catchment due to the expected higher temperatures and heavier rainfall. However, it is not clear whether both dissolved organic carbon and alkalinity, that have opposite feedbacks to global warming will increase in similar amounts, since the spring flow peak will be smoothed out in time due to higher temperatures that cause less snow cover and deeper soil infiltration.

Description: L (Linear) moments are used in identifying regional flood frequency distributions for different zones Tunisia wide. 893 site-years of annual maximum stream flow data from a total of 37 stations with an average record length of 24.14 years are considered. The country is divided into two homogeneous regions (northern and central/southern Tunisia) using a heterogeneity measure, based on the spread of the sample L-moments among the sites in a given region. Then, selection of the corresponding distribution is achieved through goodness-of-fit comparisons in L-moment diagrams and verified using an L-moment based regional test that compares observed to theoretical values of L-skewness and L-kurtosis for various candidate distributions. The distributions used, which represent five of the most frequently used distributions in the analysis of hydrologic extreme variables are: (i) Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), (ii) Pearson Type III (P3), (iii) Generalized Logistic (GLO), (iv) Generalized Normal (GN), and (v) Generalized Pareto (GPA) distributions. Spatial trends, with respect to the best-fit flood frequency distribution, are distinguished: Northern Tunisia was shown to be represented by the GEV distribution while the GLO distribution gives the best fit in central/southern Tunisia.

Description: A spatially distributed hydrologic model (WetSpa) is used to estimate daily river water discharge in the Simiyu river a tributary of Lake Victoria, Tanzania. The model combines topography, landuse and soil maps, and observed daily meteorological time series to predict discharge hydrographs and the spatial distribution of hydrological parameters in the catchment. The elevations in the catchment range from 2000 to 1100 m at the outlet, with average slope of 1.4%. The dominant landuse types are, wasteland, grassland, bushland, cultivated land, and a very small area is covered by surface water. The dominant soil types are sandy loam, followed by sandy clay loam, clay loam, clay, loam and sandy clay. There are two distinctive seasons in the Simiyu catchment. Short rains mainly in November, December and January, and long rains in March to May, resulting in a total average annual precipitation of 700 to 1000 mm. The annual potential evapotranspiration is about 1300 mm, and the river discharge at the catchment outlet ranges from 0 to about 200 m3/s. Global parameters of the model are calibrated using three years of daily observed discharge values measured at the mouth of the river at Lake Victoria. The estimated average travel time of the runoff to the outlet of the catchment is about 2.4 d and maximum 8 d for the most remote areas. The model results also show that the surface runoff and interflow provide respectively 38.6% and 61.4% of the total runoff, while the contribution of groundwater drainage is nil. The absence of groundwater drainage is probably due to the high evaporation demand of the atmosphere, which accounts for about 90% of the total precipitation being lost by evapotranspiration. The annual water balance estimated with the model reveals that the total outflow to Lake Victoria is about 500×106 m3 per year, which occurs mainly in the wet seasons, i.e. from March to May and from November to January. The volume of runoff produced by agricultural land amounts to about 9% of the total runoff annually.

Description: Predicting discharge in ungauged catchments requires knowledge on the distribution and spatial heterogeneity of hydrological soil properties. Because hydrological soil information is not available on a European scale, we reclassified the Soil Geographical Database of Europe (SGDBE) in a hydrological manner by adopting the Hydrology Of Soil Types (HOST) system developed in the UK. The HOST classification describes dominant pathways of water movement through soil and was related to the base flow index (BFI) of a catchment (the long-term proportion of base flow on total stream flow). In the original UK study, a linear regression of the coverage of HOST classes in a catchment explained 79% of BFI variability. We found that a hydrological soil classification can be built based on the information present in the SGDBE. The reclassified SGDBE and the regression coefficients from the original UK study were used to predict BFIs for 103 catchments spread throughout Europe. The predicted BFI explained around 65% of the variability in measured BFI in catchments in Northern Europe, but the explained variance decreased from North to South. We therefore estimated new regression coefficients from the European discharge data and found that these were qualitatively similar to the original estimates from the UK. This suggests little variation across Europe in the hydrological effect of particular HOST classes, but decreasing influence of soil on BFI towards Southern Europe. Our preliminary study showed that pedological information is useful for characterising soil hydrology within Europe and the long-term discharge regime of catchments in Northern Europe. Based on the results, we draft a roadmap for a refined hydrological classification of European soils.

Description: River restoration appraisal requires the implementation of monitoring programmes that assess the river site before and after the restoration project. However, little work has yet been developed to design effective and efficient sampling strategies. Three main variables need to be considered when designing monitoring programmes: space, time and scale. The aim of this paper is to describe the methodology applied to analyse the variation of depth in space, scale and time so more comprehensive monitoring programmes can be developed. Geostatistical techniques were applied to study the spatial dimension (sampling strategy and density), spectral analysis was used to study the scale at which depth shows cyclic patterns, whilst descriptive statistics were used to assess the temporal variation. A brief set of guidelines have been summarised in the conclusion.

Description: This paper provides results of an application of a holistic systematic approach of water accounting using remote sensing and GIS coupled with ground water modeling to evaluate water saving options by tracking non-beneficial evaporation in the Liuyuankou Irrigation System (LIS) of China. Groundwater rise is a major issue in the LIS, where groundwater levels have risen alarmingly close to the ground surface (within 1 m) near the Yellow River. The lumped water balance analysis showed high fallow evaporation losses and which need to be reduced for improving water productivity. The seasonal actual evapotranspiration (ETs) was estimated by applying the SEBAL algorithm for eighteen NOAA AVHRR-12 images over the year of 1990–1991. This analysis was aided by the unsupervised land use classification applied to two Landsat 5 TM images of the study area. SEBAL results confirmed that a significant amount (116.7 MCM) of water can be saved by reducing ETs from fallow land which will result in improved water productivity at the irrigation system. The water accounting indicator (for the analysis period) shows that the process fraction per unit of depleted water (PFdepleted) is 0.52 for LIS, meaning that 52% of the depleted water is consumed by agricultural crops and 48% is lost through non-process depletion. Finally, the groundwater modeling was applied to simulate three land use and water management interventions to assess their effectiveness for both water savings and impact on the groundwater in LIS. MODFLOW's Zone Budget code calculates the groundwater budget of user-specified subregions, the exchange of flows between subregions and also calculates a volumetric water budget for the entire model at the end of each time step. The simulation results showed that fallow evaporation could be reduced between 14.2% (25.51 MCM) and 45.3% (81.36 MCM) by interventions such as canal lining and ground water pumping. The reduction in non-beneficial ETs volumes would mean that more water would be available for other uses and it would allow the introduction of more surface water supplies in the area through improved water management strategies. This will ultimately lead to improved water productivity of the LIS system.

Description: The paper introduces a stochastic model to forecast rainfall heights at site: the P.R.A.I.S.E.~model (Prediction of Rainfall Amount Inside Storm Events). PRAISE is based on the assumption that the rainfall height Hi+1 accumulated on an interval Δt between the instants iΔt and (i+1)Δt is correlated with a variable Zi(ν), representing antecedent precipitation. The mathematical background is given by a joined probability density fHi+1 Zi( ν) (hi+1 ,zi(ν)) in which the variables have a mixed nature, that is a finite probability in correspondence to the null value and infinitesimal probabilities in correspondence to the positive values. As study area, the Calabria region, in Southern Italy, was selected, to test performances of the PRAISE model.

Description: In the present work, an application of statistical regression relationships utilising geomorphic parameters is attempted in a spatially distributed mode, in order to predict the amount of river sediment supply at varying sections of the drainage network. Simple and multiple regression relationships utilising drainage density Dd and hierarchical anomaly index Δa as independent variables were applied to the Calvano watershed (Central Italy) at different degree of subdivision in tributary drainage basins, so as to assess their contribution to the whole watershed sediment yield balance. In the same way, the role of small hill-reservoirs as sediment-trap and that of areas affected by badlands and of tributary basins exposure were also investigated. Results were tested on the basis of sedimentation estimates from selected reservoirs. The relationships provided a yearly specific sediment yield (SSY) value for the Calvano stream which is according to the average observed SSY in river basins of central Italy flowing to the Adriatic Sea. The use of simple statistical relationships, such as those here adopted, can allow to recognise the sections along the main stream which are more critical in terms of sediment accumulation, which, on turn, can cause sudden water discharge increments and dangerous floods. This approach can provide a tool enabling to locate the hydraulic risk and to point out the areas where soil conservation practices or hydraulic works, such as periodic maintenance of riverbeds, are needed in order to reduce soil erosion and sediment accumulation.

Description: An approach that simplifies software development of the model based decision support systems for environmental management has been introduced. The approach is based on definition and management of metadata and data related to computational model without losing data semantics and proposed methods of integration of the new modules into the information system and their management. An architecture of the integrated modelling system is presented. The proposed architecture has been implemented as a prototype of integrated modelling system using. NET/Gtk{#} and is currently being used to re-design European Decision Support System for Nuclear Emergency Management RODOS (http://www.rodos.fzk.de) using Java/Swing.

Description: Global Climate Models (GCMs) precipitation scenarios are often characterized by biases and coarse resolution that limit their direct application for basin level hydrological modeling. Bias-correction and spatial disaggregation methods are employed to improve the quality of ECHAM4/OPYC SRES A2 and B2 precipitation for the Ping River Basin in Thailand. Bias-correction method, based on gamma-gamma transformation, is applied to improve the frequency and amount of raw GCM precipitation at the grid nodes. Spatial disaggregation model parameters (β,σ2), based on multiplicative random cascade theory, are estimated using Mandelbrot-Kahane-Peyriere (MKP) function at q=1 for each month. Bias-correction method exhibits ability of reducing biases from the frequency and amount when compared with the computed frequency and amount at grid nodes based on spatially interpolated observed rainfall data. Spatial disaggregation model satisfactorily reproduces the observed trend and variation of average rainfall amount except during heavy rainfall events with certain degree of spatial and temporal variations. Finally, the hydrologic model, HEC-HMS, is applied to simulate the observed runoff for upper Ping River Basin based on the modified GCM precipitation scenarios and the raw GCM precipitation. Precipitation scenario developed with bias-correction and disaggregation provides an improved reproduction of basin level runoff observations.

Description: In flood modelling, many one-dimensional (1-D) hydrodynamic models are too restricted in capturing the spatial differentiation of processes within a polder or system of polders and two-dimensional (2-D) models are very demanding in data requirements and computational resources. The latter is an important consideration when uncertainty analyses using the Monte Carlo techniques are to complement the modelling exercises. This paper describes the development of a quasi-2-D modeling approach, which still calculates the dynamic wave in 1-D but the discretisation of the computational units is in 2-D, allowing a better spatial representation of the flow in polders and avoiding large additional expenditure on data pre-processing and computational time. The model DYNHYD (1-D hydrodynamics) from the WASP5 modeling package was used as a basis for the simulations and extended to incorporate the quasi-2-D approach. A local sensitive analysis shows the sensitivity of parameters and boundary conditions on the filling volume of polders and capping of the peak discharge in the main river system. Two flood events on the Elbe River, Germany were used to calibrate and test the model. The results show a good capping effect on the flood peak by the proposed systems. The effect of capping reduces as the flood wave propagates downstream from the polders (up to 0.5 cm of capping is lost for each additional kilometer from the polders).

Description: Highly distributed temperature data are used as input and as calibration data for a temperature model of a first order stream in Luxembourg. A DTS (Distributed Temperature Sensing) fiber optic cable with a length of 1500 m is used to measure stream water temperature with a spatial resolution of 0.5 m and a temporal resolution of 2 min. With the observations four groundwater inflows are found and quantified (both temperature and relative discharge). They are used as input for the distributed temperature model presented here. The model calculates the total energy balance including solar radiation (with shading effects), longwave radiation, latent heat, sensible heat and river bed conduction. The simulated temperature along the whole stream is compared with the measured temperature at all points along the stream. It shows that proper knowledge of the lateral inflow is crucial to simulate the temperature distribution along the stream, and, the other way around stream temperature can be used successfully to identify runoff components. The DTS fiber optic is an excellent tool to provide this knowledge.

Description: The potential of an artificial neural network to perform simple non-linear hydrological transformations is examined. Four neural network models were developed to emulate different facets of a recognised non-linear hydrological transformation equation that possessed a small number of variables and contained no temporal component. The modeling process was based on a set of uniform random distributions. The cloning operation facilitated a direct comparison with the exact equation-based relationship. It also provided broader information about the power of a neural network to emulate existing equations and model non-linear relationships. Several comparisons with least squares multiple linear regression were performed. The first experiment involved a direct emulation of the Xinanjiang Rainfall-Runoff Model. The next two experiments were designed to assess the competencies of two neural solutions that were developed on a reduced number of inputs. This involved the omission and conflation of previous inputs. The final experiment used derived variables to model intrinsic but otherwise concealed internal relationships that are of hydrological interest. Two recent studies have suggested that neural solutions offer no worthwhile improvements in comparison to traditional weighted linear transfer functions for capturing the non-linear nature of hydrological relationships. Yet such fundamental properties are intrinsic aspects of catchment processes that cannot be excluded or ignored. The results from the four experiments that are reported in this paper are used to challenge the interpretations from these two earlier studies and thus further the debate with regards to the appropriateness of neural networks for hydrological modelling.

Description: Soil moisture condition plays a vital role in a watershed's hydrologic response to a precipitation event and is thus parameterized in most, if not all, rainfall-runoff models. Yet the soil moisture condition antecedent to an event has proven difficult to quantify both spatially and temporally. This study assesses the potential to parameterize a parsimonious streamflow prediction model solely utilizing precipitation records and multi-temporal remotely sensed biophysical variables (i.e.~from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)/Terra satellite). This study is conducted on a 1420 km2 rural watershed in the Guadalupe River basin of southcentral Texas, a basin prone to catastrophic flooding from convective precipitation events. A multiple regression model, accounting for 78% of the variance of observed streamflow for calendar year 2004, was developed based on gauged precipitation, land surface temperature, and enhanced vegetation Index (EVI), on an 8-day interval. These results compared favorably with streamflow estimations utilizing the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) curve number method and the 5-day antecedent moisture model. This approach has great potential for developing near real-time predictive models for flood forecasting and can be used as a tool for flood management in any region for which similar remotely sensed data are available.

Description: Conceptual hydrologic models are useful tools as they provide an interpretable representation of the hydrologic behaviour of a catchment. Their representation of catchment's hydrological processes and physical characteristics, however, implies simplification of the complexity and heterogeneity of reality. As a result, those models often show a lack of flexibility in reproducing the vast spectrum of catchment responses. Hence, the accuracy in reproducing certain aspects of the system behaviour is often paid in terms of a lack of accuracy in the representation of other aspects. By acknowledging the structural limitations of those models, a modular approach to hydrological simulation is proposed. Instead of using a single model to reproduce the full range of catchment responses, multiple models are used, each of them assigned to a specific task. The approach is here demonstrated in the case where the different models are associated with different parameter realizations within a fixed model structure. We show that using a composite "global" model, obtained by a combination of individual "local" models, the accuracy of the simulation is improved. We argue that this approach can be useful because it partially overcomes the structural limitations that a conceptual model might exhibit. The approach is shown in application to the discharge simulation of the experimental Alzette River basin in Luxembourg, with a conceptual model that follows the structure of the HBV model.

Description: Trends and variations of the extreme water levels defined as exceeding/falling below certain thresholds (mean ± std) across the Pearl River Delta (PRD) are systematically explored using the linear regression method. Research results indicate that: 1) The upper PRD is dominated by the significant decreasing low water level, and significant increasing low water level can be identified in the lower PRD. The variations of the relative frequency of the high water level are characterized by the decreasing variability in the middle PRD. However more stations show significant changes of the relative frequency of the low water level across the PRD. No confirmative changing patterns of the relative frequency of the low water level can be detected in the middle PRD; 2) When it comes to the seasonal variations of the high/low water level in JJA (high flow periods in the PRD), stations located closer to the estuary tend to exhibit increasing high/low water level. However stations located closer to the upper PRD tend to show decreasing high/low water level. Similar patterns can be identified in the high/low water level in DJF (low flow periods in the PRD); 3) The changes of the water level in the PRD are heavily affected by human interferences, e.g. in-channel dredging, sand mining and the construction of levees. The stations dominated by decreasing water level are mostly located along the river channels featured by highly-intensive dredging. The stations along the coastal regions show significant increasing extreme high/low water level. The coastal regions are not influenced by in-channel dredging, and furthermore, sediment loads from upper and middle PRD are deposited in the river mouths and which will tend to raise the water level in the estuary of the PRD. The findings of this paper may be helpful for local water resource management.

Description: Due to the growing wish and necessity to simulate the possible effects of climate change on the discharge regime on large rivers such as the Rhine in Europe, there is a need for well performing hydrological models that can be applied in climate change scenario studies. There exists large variety in available models and there is an ongoing debate in research on rainfall-runoff modelling on whether or not physically based distributed models better represent observed discharges than conceptual lumped model approaches do. In this paper, the hydrological models HBV and VIC were compared for the Rhine basin by testing their performance in simulating discharge. Overall, the semi-distributed conceptual HBV model performed much better than the distributed physically based VIC model (E=0.62, r2=0.65 vs. E=0.31, r2=0.54 at Lobith). It is argued here that even for a well-documented river basin such as the Rhine, more complex modelling does not automatically lead to better results. Moreover, it is concluded that meteorological forcing data has a considerable influence on model performance, irrespectively to the type of model structure and the need for ground-based meteorological measurements is emphasized.

Description: Water management is the driving force behind the productivity of the ecosystems of the Senegal River Estuary and floodplains. It is dependent on human decision-making, but has been separated from the River's flooding since the building of the Diama Dam. The current objectives of the Office de Mise en Valeur du fleuve Sénégal (OMVS: Senegal River Development Agency) are mainly turned towards the development of irrigated agriculture on the former floodplains and since 2002 the production of hydroelectric power at Manantali. In October 2003, a four-metre-wide runoff canal, which quickly widened into a breach several hundred metres across, was dug in the Barbary Spit area to protect the city of Saint-Louis from heavy flooding. The hydraulic quality of the area downstream from the dam has improved to the extent that there is no longer any flooding there, but as the management of the dams concerns only the section of the river between Manantali and Diama, a certain amount of flood risk probably still persists. The intrusion of seawater into the estuary is also threatening ecosystems and fresh water supplies, and abruptly altering agricultural practices such as fruit and vegetable growing in the Gandiolais district. When added to the tentative efforts to coordinate the management of the two dams, with no management objective downstream from Diama, such permanent modifications impose serious constraints on the managers and residents of the lower delta. This paper presents an overview of the constraints and uncertainties at different levels and scales. This wholly human-wrought environment can be considered as a learning experience, where a large number of variables need to be monitored closely and an ongoing process of participatory analysis should be backed up by multidisciplinary research.

Description: Land-use change and climate change, along with groundwater pumping are frequently indicated to be the main human-induced factors influencing the groundwater system. Up till now, research has mainly been focusing on the effect of the water quality of these human-induced changes on the groundwater system, often neglecting changes in quantity. The focus in this study is on the impact of land-use changes in the near future, from 2000 until 2020, on the groundwater quantity and the general hydrologic balance of a sub-catchment of the Kleine Nete, Belgium. This study tests a new methodology which involves coupling a land-use change model with a water balance model and a groundwater model. The future land-use is modelled with the CLUE-S model. Four scenarios (A1, A2, B1 and B2) based on the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) are used for the land-use modelling. Water balance components, groundwater level and baseflow are simulated using the WetSpass model in conjunction with a MODFLOW groundwater model. Results show that the average recharge slowly decreases for all scenarios, the decreases are 2.9, 1.6, 1.8 and 0.8% for respectively scenario A1, A2, B1 and B2. The predicted reduction in recharge results in a small decrease of the average groundwater level, ranging from 2.5 cm for scenario A1 to 0.9 cm for scenario B2, and a reduction of the total baseflow with maximum 2.3% and minimum 0.7% respectively for scenario A1 and B2. Although these average values do not indicate significant changes for the groundwater system, spatial analysis of the changes shows the changes are concentrated in the neighbourhood of the major cities in the study areas. It is therefore important for spatial managers to take the groundwater system into account for reducing the negative impacts of land-use and climate change as much as possible.

Description: We discuss a simplifed, conceptual model for the dynamics of the soil-vegetation system in drylands. The model considers the different dynamical processes taking place in vegetated and non-vegetated soil and it distinguishes between the upper soil layer, where rapid evaporation dominates, and the deeper root layer where only plant transpiration takes place. We explore the role of rainfall intermittency and of different plant colonization strategies, and discuss in detail the effect of two different vegetation feedbacks: reduced evaporation due to plant shading and increased infiltration in vegetated areas. The results of the analysis indicate that both temporal rainfall intermittency and the shading/infiltration feedbacks have a beneficial effect on vegetation. However, it turns out that in this model rainfall intermittency and vegetation feedbacks have almost a mutually exclusive role: whenever one of these two components is present, the addition of the other does not further affect vegetation dynamics in a significant way.

Description: A data mining, regression tree algorithm M5 was used to review the understanding of mutual hydrological and seasonal settings which control the streamwater nitrate flushing during hydrological events within a forested watershed in the southwestern part of Slovenia, characterized by distinctive flushing, almost torrential hydrological regime. The basis for the research presented an extensive dataset of continuous, high frequency measurements of seasonal meteorological conditions, watershed hydrological responses and streamwater nitrate concentrations. The dataset contained 16 recorded hydrographs occurring in different seasonal and hydrological conditions. Based on predefined regression tree pruning criteria, a comprehensible regression tree model was obtained in the sense of the domain knowledge, which was able to adequately describe most of the streamwater nitrate concentration variations (RMSE=1.02 mg/l-N; r=0.91). The attributes which were found to be the most descriptive in the sense of streamwater nitrate concentrations were the antecedent precipitation index (API) and air temperatures in the preceding periods. The model was most successful in describing streamwater concentrations in the range 1–4 mg/l-N, covering large proportion of the dataset. The model performance was poorer during the periods of high streamwater nitrate concentration oscillations (up to 7 mg/l-N during the summer hydrographs and 14 mg/l-N during the extreme November hydrograph) related to highly variable hydrological conditions, which would require a less robust regression tree model.

Description: In this study we describe and compare photometric and resistivity measurement methodologies to determine solute concentrations in porous media flow tank experiments. The first method is the photometric method, which directly relates digitally measured intensities of a tracer dye to concentrations without previously converting the intensities to optical densities. This enables an effective processing of a large amount of images to compute concentration time series at various points of the flow tank. Perturbations of the measurements are investigated and both lens flare effects and the image resolution turned out to be the major sources of error. An attached mask is able to minimize the lens flare effects. The second method for in situ measurement of salt concentrations in porous media experiments is the resistivity method. The resistivity measurement system uses two different input voltages at gilded electrode sticks to enable the measurement of salt concentrations from 0 to 300 g/l. Power laws are used to relate apparent resistivity values and salt concentrations. However, due to the unknown measurement volume of the electrodes, we consider the image analysis method more appropriate for intermediate scale laboratory benchmark experiments to evaluate numerical codes.

Description: This paper investigates the value of observed river discharge data for global-scale hydrological modeling of a number of flow characteristics that are required for assessing water resources, flood risk and habitat alteration of aqueous ecosystems. An improved version of WGHM (WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model) was tuned in a way that simulated and observed long-term average river discharges at each station become equal, using either the 724-station dataset (V1) against which former model versions were tuned or a new dataset (V2) of 1235 stations and often longer time series. WGHM is tuned by adjusting one model parameter (γ) that affects runoff generation from land areas, and, where necessary, by applying one or two correction factors, which correct the total runoff in a sub-basin (areal correction factor) or the discharge at the station (station correction factor). The study results are as follows. (1) Comparing V2 to V1, the global land area covered by tuning basins increases by 5%, while the area where the model can be tuned by only adjusting γ increases by 8% (546 vs. 384 stations). However, the area where a station correction factor (and not only an areal correction factor) has to be applied more than doubles (389 vs. 93 basins), which is a strong drawback as use of a station correction factor makes discharge discontinuous at the gauge and inconsistent with runoff in the basin. (2) The value of additional discharge information for representing the spatial distribution of long-term average discharge (and thus renewable water resources) with WGHM is high, particularly for river basins outside of the V1 tuning area and for basins where the average sub-basin area has decreased by at least 50% in V2 as compared to V1. For these basins, simulated long-term average discharge would differ from the observed one by a factor of, on average, 1.8 and 1.3, respectively, if the additional discharge information were not used for tuning. The value tends to be higher in semi-arid and snow-dominated regions where hydrological models are less reliable than in humid areas. The deviation of the other simulated flow characteristics (e.g. low flow, inter-annual variability and seasonality) from the observed values also decreases significantly, but this is mainly due to the better representation of average discharge but not of variability. (3) The optimal sub-basin size for tuning depends on the modeling purpose. On the one hand, small basins between 9000 and 20 000 km2 show a much stronger improvement in model performance due to tuning than the larger basins, which is related to the lower model performance (with and without tuning), with basins over 60 000 km2 performing best. On the other hand, tuning of small basins decreases model consistency, as almost half of them require a station correction factor.

Description: Long-term average groundwater recharge, which is equivalent to renewable groundwater resources, is the major limiting factor for the sustainable use of groundwater. Compared to surface water resources, groundwater resources are more protected from pollution, and their use is less restricted by seasonal and inter-annual flow variations. To support water management in a globalized world, it is necessary to estimate groundwater recharge at the global scale. Here, we present a best estimate of global-scale long-term average diffuse groundwater recharge (i.e. renewable groundwater resources) that has been calculated by the most recent version of the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model WGHM (spatial resolution of 0.5° by 0.5°, daily time steps). The estimate was obtained using two state-of-the art global data sets of gridded observed precipitation that we corrected for measurement errors, which also allowed to quantify the uncertainty due to these equally uncertain data sets. The standard WGHM groundwater recharge algorithm was modified for semi-arid and arid regions, based on independent estimates of diffuse groundwater recharge, which lead to an unbiased estimation of groundwater recharge in these regions. WGHM was tuned against observed long-term average river discharge at 1235 gauging stations by adjusting, individually for each basin, the partitioning of precipitation into evapotranspiration and total runoff. We estimate that global groundwater recharge was 12 666 km3/yr for the climate normal 1961–1990, i.e. 32% of total renewable water resources. In semi-arid and arid regions, mountainous regions, permafrost regions and in the Asian Monsoon region, groundwater recharge accounts for a lower fraction of total runoff, which makes these regions particularly vulnerable to seasonal and inter-annual precipitation variability and water pollution. Average per-capita renewable groundwater resources of countries vary between 8 m3/(capita yr) for Egypt to more than 1 million m3/(capita yr) for the Falkland Islands, the global average in the year 2000 being 2091 m3/(capita yr). Regarding the uncertainty of estimated groundwater resources due to the two precipitation data sets, deviation from the mean is less than 1% for 50 out of the 165 countries considered, between 1 and 5% for 62, between 5 and 20% for 43 and between 20 and 80% for 10 countries. Deviations at the grid scale can be much larger, ranging between 0 and 186 mm/yr.

Description: The impact of predicted climate change on the hydrological dynamics and long term hydrological balance in the federal German state Thuringia was investigated and analysed. For this study the prognostic climate data, provided by the statistical regionalisation approach WETTREG, which is based on results of the global climate model ECHAM5/MPI-OM, was used. This regional climate model provides synthetic climate time series for the existent precipitation and climate station in Germany from 2000 to 2100. This data was processed with the hydrological model J2000g which we used for the regionalisation of the climatological time series data and for the computation of potential and actual evapotranspiration, runoff generation and groundwater recharge. In this study we analysed the two emission scenarios A2 and B1, defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and their impact on the temporal and spatial distribution of temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration and runoff generation for the time frame 2071–2100 for the entire area of the German state of Thuringia. For this purpose we compared simulation with the scenario data with simulation results based on reference data from 1971–2000. The comparison showed an increase of the mean annual temperature of 1.8 (B1) to 2.2 (A2) °C which is much more distinct during winter. The mean annual precipitation is decreasing only slightly but, the seasonal spatio-temporal rainfall distribution which has major impact on the hydrological water balance is changing significantly. This pattern change results in more precipitation during winter and less in summer. Actual evapotranspiration was computed higher for both scenarios compared to the evapotranspiration of the reference period 1971–2000. As a follow up a decrease in the runoff generation was simulated which was again very variable in space and time. The overall trends worked out in this study showed that it is likely that the extremes of flooding in winter and dry spells in summer might occur more often in Thuringia because of the changing weather conditions due to climate change.

Description: Lignin oxidation products were used to determine the sources, transport and distribution of terrestrially-derived organic matter (OM) in two Scottish sea lochs, Loch Creran and Loch Etive. Oxygen uptake rates, molar OC/N ratios (from bulk elemental analysis) and Rp values (from loss on ignition experiments, the ratio of the refractory to total OM) were also determined for sediments along transects of the lochs. Lignin data indicate the importance of riverine inputs, contributing land-derived carbon to the lochs as total lignin (Λ, mg/100 mg organic carbon, OC) decreased from 0.69 to 0.45 and 0.70 to 0.29 from the head to outside of Lochs Creran and Etive, respectively. In addition, significant correlations for lignin content against total OM and OC (p

Description: The reduction of information contained in model time series through the use of aggregating statistical measures is very high compared to the amount of information that one would like to draw from it for model identification and calibration purposes. Applied within a model identification context, aggregating statistical performance measures are inadequate to capture details on time series characteristics. It has been readily shown that this loss of information on the residuals imposes important limitations on model identification and -diagnostics and thus constitutes an element of the overall model uncertainty. In this contribution we present an approach using a Self-Organizing Map (SOM) to circumvent the identifiability problem induced by the low discriminatory power of aggregating performance measures. Instead, a Self-Organizing Map is used to differentiate the spectrum of model realizations, obtained from Monte-Carlo simulations with a distributed conceptual watershed model, based on the recognition of different patterns in time series. Further, the SOM is used instead of a classical optimization algorithm to identify the model realizations among the Monte-Carlo simulations that most closely approximate the pattern of the measured discharge time series. The results are analyzed and compared with the manually calibrated model as well as with the results of the Shuffled Complex Evolution algorithm (SCE-UA).

Description: This paper investigates the impact of various vegetation types on water balance variability in semi-arid Mediterranean landscapes, and the different strategies they may have developed to succeed in such water-limited environments. Water balance constraints are assumed to dominate the organization of landscapes and a conceptual bucket approach is adopted to model the temporal water balance dynamics, with vegetation water use efficiency being parameterized through the use of empirically obtained crop coefficients as surrogates of vegetation behavior in various developmental stages. Sensitivity analyses with respect to the root zone depth and soil water holding capacity are carried out with the aim of investigating the existence of preferential soil-vegetation associations and, hence, the spatial distribution of vegetation types within the study region. Based on these sensitivity analyses the degrees of suitability and adaptability of each vegetation type to parts of the study region are explored with respect of the soil water holding capacity, and the model results were found to be able to explain the observed affinity patterns. Finally, the existence of such preferential association between soil water holding capacity and vegetation species is verified through an extensive soil survey available in the study region.