ALBERT

Description: Rainfall-triggered landslides taking place in the Spanish Eastern Pyrenees have usually been analysed on a regional scale. Most research focussed either on terrain susceptibility or on the characteristics of the critical rainfall, neglecting a detailed analysis of individual events. In contrast to other mountainous regions, research on debris flow has only been performed marginally and associated hazard has mostly been neglected. In this study, five debris flows, which occurred in 2008, are selected; and site specific descriptions and analysis regarding geology, morphology, rainfall data and runout were performed. The results are compared with worldwide data and some conclusions on hazard assessment are presented. The five events can be divided into two in-channel debris flows and three landslide-triggered debris flows. The in-channel generated debris flows exceeded 10 000 m3, which are unusually large mass movements compared to historic events which occurred in the Eastern Pyrenees. In contrast, the other events mobilised total volumes less than 2000 m3. The geomorphologic analysis showed that the studied events emphasize similar patterns when compared to published data focussing on slope angle in the initiation zone or catchment area. Rainfall data revealed that all debris flows were triggered by high intensity-short duration rainstorms during the summer season. Unfortunately, existing rainfall thresholds in the Eastern Pyrenees consider long-lasting rainfall, usually occurring in autumn/winter. Therefore, new thresholds should be established taking into account the rainfall peak intensity in mm/h, which seems to be a much more relevant factor for summer than the event's total precipitation. The runout analysis of the 2008 debris flows confirms the trend that larger volumes generally induce higher mobility. The numerical simulation of the Riu Runer event shows that its dynamic behaviour is well represented by Voellmy fluid rheology. A maximum front velocity of 7 m/s was back-analysed for the transit section and even on the fan velocities larger than 2 m/s were obtained. This preliminary analysis of the major Eastern Pyrenean debris flows represents the first background for future studies. Additional research on other events is necessary to support the results presented herein, and to properly assess and reduce hazard related to debris flows.

Description: In this paper we produce projections of seasonal precipitation for four Mediterranean areas: Apulia region (Italy), Ebro river basin (Spain), Po valley (Italy) and Antalya province (Turkey). We performed the statistical downscaling using Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) in two versions: in one case Principal Component Analysis (PCA) filter is applied only to predictor and in the other to both predictor and predictand. After performing a validation test, CCA after PCA filter on both predictor and predictand has been chosen. Sea level pressure (SLP) is used as predictor. Downscaling has been carried out for the scenarios A2 and B2 on the basis of three GCM's: the CCCma-GCM2, the Csiro-MK2 and HadCM3. Three consecutive 30-year periods have been considered. For Summer precipitation in Apulia region we also use the 500 hPa temperature (T500) as predictor, obtaining comparable results. Results show different climate change signals in the four areas and confirm the need of an analysis that is capable of resolving internal differences within the Mediterranean region. The most robust signal is the reduction of Summer precipitation in the Ebro river basin. Other significative results are the increase of precipitation over Apulia in Summer, the reduction over the Po-valley in Spring and Autumn and the increase over the Antalya province in Summer and Autumn.

Description: Earthquake history shows that the Sunda subduction zone of the Indonesian margin produces great earthquakes offshore Sumatra, whereas earthquakes of comparable magnitude are lacking offshore Java and the Lesser Sunda islands. Morphological structures in multibeam bathymetric data across the forearc relate with the extent of the seismogenic zone. Its updip limit corresponds to the slope break, most distinct off Java and Lesser Sunda islands, where we find coincident narrow, uniform, continuous outer arc ridges. Their landward termination and a shallow upper plate mantle mark the downdip limit of the seismogenic zone. In contrast the outer arc ridges off Sumatra are wider and partly elevated above sea level forming the forearc islands. The downdip limit of the seismogenic zone coincides with a deeper upper plate mantle. Sunda Strait marks a transition zone between the Sumatra and Java margins. We find the differences along the Sunda margin, especially the wider extent of the seismogenic zone off Sumatra, producing larger earthquakes, to result from the interaction of different age and subduction direction of the oceanic plate. We attribute a major role to the sediment income and continental/oceanic upper plate nature of Sumatra/Java influencing the composition and deformation style along the forearc and subduction fault.

Description: A possible geophysical mechanism based on the conception of criticality and on new aspects of biological effects caused by electromagnetic fields is discussed as a stimulus to the unusual animal behavior prior to large earthquakes. This mechanism is related to transient electric signals of low frequency and intensity, which are emitted from the pre-focal area several days before the impending earthquake and fulfill all the conditions set by a recent bioeffect model.

Description: Complex application domains involve difficult pattern classification problems. This paper introduces a model of MMI attenuation and its dependence on engineering ground motion parameters based on artificial neural networks (ANNs) and genetic algorithms (GAs). The ultimate goal of this investigation is to evaluate the target-region applicability of ground-motion attenuation relations developed for a host region based on training an ANN using the seismic patterns of the host region. This ANN learning is based on supervised learning using existing data from past earthquakes. The combination of these two learning procedures (that is, GA and ANN) allows us to introduce a new method for pattern recognition in the context of seismological applications. The performance of this new GA-ANN regression method has been evaluated using a Greek seismological database with satisfactory results.

Description: On 28 January 2009, a large debris slide was triggered by prolonged rainfalls at the southern suburbs of San Benedetto Ullano (Northern Calabria). The slope movement affected fractured and weathered migmatitic gneiss and biotitic schist, and included a pre-existing landslide. A detailed geomorphologic field survey, carried out during the whole phase of mobilization, allowed to recognize the evolution of the phenomenon. A set of datum points was located along the borders of the landslide and frequent hand-made measurements of surface displacements were performed. Since 11 February, a basic real-time monitoring system of meteoric parameters and of surface displacements, measured by means of high-precision extensometers, was also implemented. Based on the data gained through the monitoring system, and on field surveying, a basic support system for emergency management could be defined since the first phases of activation of the phenomenon. The evolution of the landslide was monitored during the following months: as a consequence, evidence of retrogressive distribution could be recognized, with initial activation in the middle sector of the slope, where new temporary springs were observed. During early May, the activity reduced to displacements of a few millimetres per month and the geo-hydrological crisis seemed to be concluded. Afterwards, the geological scheme of the slope was refined based on the data collected through a set of explorative boreholes, equipped with inclinometers and piezometers: according to the stratigraphic and inclinometric data, the depth of the mobilized body resulted in varying between 15 and 35 m along a longitudinal section. A parametric limit equilibrium analysis was carried out to explore the stability conditions of the slope affected by the landslide as well as to quantify the role of the water table in destabilizing the slope. The interpretation of the process based on field observations was confirmed by the limit equilibrium analysis: the first activation of the landslide was, in fact, to be expected in the middle portion of the slope, provided that the groundwater levels approximate the ground surface in the same sector. On 1 February 2010, another remarkable phase of landslide mobilization began, following a new period of exceptional and prolonged rainfalls. On 11 February, an abrupt stage of slope acceleration was observed, after further extraordinary rainfalls. The slope movement essentially replicated the phases of mobilization observed on 28 January 2009, thus confirming the results of the limit equilibrium analysis. Based on the outcomes of the parametric analysis, the support system for emergency management could then be tentatively refined on a more physical basis.

Description: In the context of wave climate variability, long-term alterations in the wave storminess pattern of the Catalan coast (northwestern Mediterranean Sea) are analysed in terms of wave energy content and wave direction, on the basis of wave hindcast data (from 44-year time series). In general, no significant temporal trends are found for annual mean and maximum energy. However, the same analysis carried out separately for different wave directions reveals a remarkable increase in the storm energy of events from the south, which is partly due to a rise in the annual percentage of such storms. A case study of Tarragona Port (on the southern Catalan coast) highlights the importance of including changes in wave direction in the study of potential impacts of climate change. In particular, an increase in the frequency of storms from the south leads to greater agitation inside the Port.

Description: In the past two decades, episodes of flooding on the coast of Alicante (Spain) have led to substantial losses in human life in economic terms. With increased exposure to these phenomena comes also increased vulnerability. Given the various effects of flooding in areas of similar exposure, differences in vulnerability across regions at risk need to be analysed also in terms of the socioeconomic factors of the groups of society that may be affected, and of their perception of risk. This paper studies the increased risk of flooding in three locations on the Alicante coast as a result of urban occupation of areas subject to this hazard. The consequences of the most recent episodes in this area are analysed and a risk assessment, using survey-based research in the affected areas, is performed.

Description: The impact of ash-fall on people, buildings, crops, water resources, and infrastructure depends on several factors such as the thickness of the deposits, grain size distribution and others. Preparedness against tephra falls over large regions around an active volcano requires an understanding of all processes controlling those factors, and a working model capable of predicting at least some of them. However, the complexity of tephra dispersion and sedimentation makes the search of an integral solution an almost unapproachable problem in the absence of highly efficient computing facilities due to the large number of equations and unknown parameters that control the process. An alternative attempt is made here to address the problem of modeling the thickness of ash deposits as a primary impact factor that can be easily communicated to the public and decision-makers. We develop a semi-empirical inversion model to estimate the thickness of non-compacted deposits produced by an explosive eruption around a volcano in the distance range 4–150 km from the eruptive source. The model was elaborated from the analysis of the geometric distribution of deposit thickness of 14 world-wide well-documented eruptions. The model was initially developed to depict deposits of potential eruptions of Popocatépetl and Colima volcanoes in México, but it can be applied to any volcano. It has been designed to provide planners and Civil Protection authorities of an accurate perception of the ash-fall deposit thickness that may be expected for different eruption scenarios. The model needs to be fed with a few easy-to-obtain parameters, namely, height of the eruptive column, duration of the explosive phase, and wind speed and direction, and its simplicity allows it to run in any platform, including a personal computers and even a notebook. The results may be represented as tables, two dimensional thickness-distance plots, or isopach maps using any available graphic interface. The model has been tested, with available data from some recent eruptions in México, and permits to generate ash-fall deposit scenarios from new situations, or to recreate past situations, or to superimpose scenarios from eruptions of other volcanoes. The results may be displayed as thickness vs. distance plots, or as deposit-thickness scenarios superimposed on a regional map by means of a visual computer simulator based on a user-friendly built-in computer graphic interface.

Description: A macroseismic methodology of seismic risk microzonation in a low-rise city based on the vulnerability of residential buildings is proposed and applied to Colima city, Mexico. The seismic risk microzonation for Colima consists of two elements: the mapping of residential blocks according to their vulnerability level and the calculation of an expert-opinion based damage probability matrix (DPM) for a given level of earthquake intensity and a given type of residential block. A specified exposure time to the seismic risk for this zonation is equal to the interval between two destructive earthquakes. The damage probability matrices were calculated for three types of urban buildings and five types of residential blocks in Colima. It was shown that only 9% of 1409 residential blocks are able to resist to the Modify Mercalli (MM) intensity VII and VIII earthquakes without significant damage. The proposed DPM-2007 is in good accordance with the experimental damage curves based on the macroseismic evaluation of 3332 residential buildings in Colima that was carried out after the 21 January 2003 intensity MM VII earthquake. This methodology and the calculated PDM-2007 curves may be applied also to seismic risk microzonation for many low-rise cities in Latin America, Asia, and Africa.

Description: Using the Taiwan Central Weather Bureau earthquake catalogue, the crustal seismicity of Taiwan was analyzed by means of a nonextensive approach. The time span of the analyzed catalogue is from 1 January 1990 to 30 November 2007, and only earthquakes with magnitude M≥2.0 were considered. Our findings reveal that the nonextensive statistics furnishes a very good prediction of the cumulative magnitude distribution of crustal seismicity in Taiwan, even if the aftershocks are removed, indicating that the approach is robust for clustered as well as declustered seismicity.

Description: Debris flows generally propagate along steep mountain torrents with dynamics primarily governed by gravitational and frictional forces. Thus, debris flows modelling can be successfully performed through the application of kinematic models, which consider only the effects of slope and friction and neglect the remaining terms of the momentum equation. However, the diffusion processes that can be observed in the field, such as the spreading of the debris flow wave as it flows downstream, can not be theoretically predicted by kinematic models, since diffusion is a second-order process neglected in the kinematic approximation. In this paper, this issue is discussed and an application for both a generalized diffusion wave model and a kinematic model is proposed of a debris flow which occurred in an Italian instrumented torrent to identify, in a real case scenario, the effective value of the neglected terms in the kinematic approximation.

Description: The majority of people at risk from earthquakes do little or nothing to reduce their vulnerability. Over the past 40 years social scientists have tried to predict and explain levels of seismic hazard adjustment using models from behavioural sciences such as psychology. The present paper is the first to synthesise the major findings from the international literature on psychological correlates and causes of seismic adjustment at the level of the individual and the household. It starts by reviewing research on seismic risk perception. Next, it looks at norms and normative beliefs, focusing particularly on issues of earthquake protection responsibility and trust between risk stakeholders. It then considers research on attitudes towards seismic adjustment attributes, specifically beliefs about efficacy, control and fate. It concludes that an updated model of seismic adjustment must give the issues of norms, trust, power and identity a more prominent role. These have been only sparsely represented in the social psychological literature to date.

Description: An important part within the German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) project was the detailed numerical investigation of the impact of tsunamis in densely populated coastal areas of Indonesia. This work, carried out by the German Research Centre Geesthacht (GKSS), in co-operation with DHI-WASY, also provides the basis for the preparation of high resolution hazard and risk maps by the German Aerospace Center (DLR). In this paper a method is described of how to prepare very detailed roughness maps for scenario computations performed with the MIKE 21 Flow Model FM in three highly resolved (~10 m) priority regions, namely Kuta (Bali), Padang (West-Sumatra), and Cilacap (southern coast of Java). Roughness values are assigned to 43 land use classes, e.g. different types of buildings, rural and urban sub-areas, by using equivalent coefficients found in literature or by performing numerical experiments. Comparisons of simulations using differentiated roughness maps with simulations using constant values (a widely used approach) are presented and it is demonstrated that roughness takes considerable influence on run-up and inundation. Out of all simulations, the results of the worst case scenarios for each of the three priority areas are discussed. Earthquakes with magnitudes of MW=8.5 or higher lead to considerable inundation in all study sites. A spatially distinguished consideration of roughness has been found to be necessary for detailed modelling onshore.

Description: In addition to precautionary or technical flood protection measures, short-term strategies of the operational management, i.e. the initiation and co-ordination of preventive measures during and/or before a flood event are crucially for the reduction of the flood damages. This applies especially for extreme flood events. These events are rare, but may cause a protection measure to be overtopped or even to fail and be destroyed. In such extreme cases, reliable decisions must be made and emergency measures need to be carried out to prevent even larger damages from occurring. Based on improved methods for meteorological and hydrological modelling a range of (physically based) extreme flood scenarios can be derived from historical events by modification of air temperature and humidity, shifting of weather fields and recombination of flood relevant event characteristics. By coupling the large scale models with hydraulic and geotechnical models, the whole flood-process-chain can be analysed right down to the local scale. With the developed GIS-based tools for hydraulic modelling FlowGIS and the Dike-Information-System, (IS-dikes) it is possible to quantify the endangering shortly before or even during a flood event, so the decision makers can evaluate possible options for action in operational mode.

Description: The forecast in areas of very complex topography, as for instance the Alpine region, is still a challenge even for the new generation of numerical weather prediction models which aim at reaching the km-scale. The problem is enhanced by a general lack of standard observations, which is even more evident over the southern side of the Alps. For this reason, it would be useful to increase the performance of the mathematical models by locally assimilating non-conventional data. Since in ARPA Piemonte there is the availability of a great number of non-GTS stations, it has been decided to assimilate the 2 m temperature, coming from this dataset, in the very-high resolution version of the COSMO model, which has a horizontal resolution of about 3 km, more similar to the average resolution of the thermometers. Four different weather situations have been considered, ranging from spring to winter, from cloudy to clear sky. The aim of the work is to investigate the effects of the assimilation of non-GTS data in order to create an operational very high-resolution analysis, but also to test the option of running in the future a very short-range forecast starting from these analyses (RUC or Rapid Update Cycle). The results, in terms of Root Mean Square Error, Mean Error and diurnal cycle of some surface variables such as 2 m temperature, 2 m relative humidity and 10 m wind intensity show a positive impact during the assimilation cycle which tends to dissipate a few hours after the end of it. Moreover, the 2 m temperature assimilation has a slightly positive or neutral impact on the vertical profiles of temperature, eventhough some calibration is needed for the precipitation field which is too much perturbed during the assimilation cycle, while it is unaffected in the forecast period. So the stability of the planetary boundary layer, on the one hand, has not been particularly improved by the new-data assimilation, but, on the other hand, it has not been destroyed. It has to be pointed out that a correct description of the planetary boundary layer, even only the lowest part of it, could be helpful to the forecasters and, in general, to the users, in order to deal with meteorological hazards such as snow (in particular snow/rain limit definition), or fog (description of temperature inversions).

Description: Many geo-hazards such as earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, severe weather, etc., produce acoustic waves with sub-audible frequency, so called infrasound. This sound propagates from the surface to the middle and upper atmosphere causing pressure and temperature perturbations. Temperature fluctuations connected with the above mentioned events usually are very weak at the surface, but the amplitude increases with height because of the exponential decrease of atmospheric pressure with increasing altitude. At the mesopause region (80–100 km height) signal amplitudes are about two to three orders of magnitude larger than on the ground. The GRIPS (GRound-based Infrared P-branch Spectrometer) measurement system operated by the German Remote Sensing Data Center of the German Aerospace Center (DLR-DFD) derives temperatures of the mesopause region by observing hydroxyl (OH) airglow emissions in the near infrared atmospheric emission spectrum originating from a thin layer at approximately 87 km height. The GRIPS instrument is in principle suited for the detection of infrasonic signals generated by e.g. tsunamis and other geo-hazards. This is due to the fact that the infrasound caused by such events should induce observable short-period fluctuations in the OH airglow temperatures. First results obtained during a field campaign performed at the Environmental Research Station "Schneefernerhaus", Zugspitze (47.4° N, 11.0° E) from October to December 2008 are presented regarding potential sources of meteorological and orographical origin. An adequate distinction of the overlapping infrasonic signatures caused by different infrasound sources in the OH temperature record is needed for the ascription to the proper source. The approach presented here could form a contribution to a hazard monitoring and early warning system.

Description: Zonguldak Hardcoal Basin is the largest bituminous coal region in Turkey where extensive underground mining activity exists. Because of this activity subsidence effects have been experienced in different locations of the city. In this study, surface deformations caused by the subsidence have been observed by D-InSAR technique using C-Band RADARSAT data. InSAR data process of 16 RADARSAT images acquired between 24 July 2005–23 October 2006 has resulted in significant deformations in the order of about 6 cm in the most populated region of the city. The deformation map obtained has been integrated with digitized mine production maps and Quickbird Orthoimage into GIS. According to GIS analysis, there are three mine seams at different levels driven below the deformed zone. Many governmental and private buildings located in this area have a high potential risk of subsidence damage. Also, this area covers approximately 12 km of transportation routes.

Description: The accuracy of ensemble streamflow forecasts (ESFs) is impacted by the propagation of uncertainty associated with quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) through the physical processes occurring in the basin. In this study, we consider consistent ESFs (i.e., observations and ensemble members are equally likely) and we study the effect of basin area (A) and antecedent rainfall (AR) on the ESF dispersion, a metric of flood forecast skill. Results from a set of numerical experiments indicate that: (i) for small basins (≲180 km2), ESF dispersion is mainly dominated by the runoff generation process and does not depend on the basin size A; (ii) for larger areas, ESF dispersion decreases with A according to a log-linear relation due to the decreasing variability of ensemble QPFs and, possibly, to the channel routing process. In addition, we found that, regardless the basin size, the ESF dispersion decreases as AR increases, and that the influence of AR is larger for basins with fast response times. Physical controls (land cover, soil texture and morphometric features) on the analyzed basin response confirm these interpretations.

Description: A new approach is developed to find the source azimuth of the ultra low frequency (ULF) electromagnetic (EM) signals believed to be emanating from well defined seismic zone. The method is test applied on magnetic data procured from the seismoactive region of Koyna-Warna, known for prolonged reservoir triggered seismicity. Extremely low-noise, high-sensitivity LEMI-30 search coil magnetometers were used to measure simultaneously the vector magnetic field in the frequency range 0.001–32 Hz at two stations, the one located within and another ~100 km away from the seismic active zone. During the observation campaign extending from 15 March to 30 June 2006 two earthquakes (EQs) of magnitude (ML〉4) occurred, which are searched for the presence of precursory EM signals. Comparison of polarization ellipses (PE) parameters formed by the magnetic field components at the measurement stations, in select frequency bands, allows discrimination of seismo-EM signals from the natural background ULF signals of magnetospheric/ionospheric origin. The magnetic field components corresponding to spectral bands dominated by seismo-EM fields define the PE plane which at any instant contains the source of the EM fields. Intersection lines of such defined PE planes for distant observation stations clutter in to the source region. Approximating the magnetic-dipole configuration for the source, the magnetic field components along the intersection lines suggest that azimuth of the EM source align in the NNW-SSE direction. This direction well coincides with the orientation of nodal plane of normal fault plane mechanism for the two largest EQs recorded during the campaign. More significantly the correspondence of this direction with the tectonic controlled trend in local seismicity, it has been surmised that high pressure fluid flow along the fault that facilitate EQs in the region may also be the source mechanism for EM fields by electrokinetic effect.

Description: The evolution of modulational instability, or Benjamin-Feir instability is investigated within the framework of the two-dimensional fully nonlinear potential equations, modified to include wind forcing and viscous dissipation. The wind model corresponds to the Miles' theory. The introduction of dissipation in the equations is briefly discussed. Evolution of this instability in the presence of damping was considered by Segur et al. (2005a) and Wu et al. (2006). Their results were extended theoretically by Kharif et al. (2010) who considered wind forcing and viscous dissipation within the framework of a forced and damped nonlinear Schrödinger equation. The marginal stability curve derived from the fully nonlinear numerical simulations coincides with the curve obtained by Kharif et al. (2010) from a linear stability analysis. Furthermore, it is found that the presence of wind forcing promotes the occurrence of a permanent frequency-downshifting without invoking damping due to breaking wave phenomenon.

Description: The purpose of this paper is to study the interaction of the Vrancea seismic activity (Romania) in space as result of Coulomb, static stress transfer during M=7+ events. In this area, three large events occurred in 1977, 1986 and 1990 at mid-lower, lithospheric depths and with similar focal mechanisms. Assuming elastic rheology for the deforming rocks it is suggested that frictional sliding on pre-existing fault produced the 1986 M=7.1 event (depth 131 km), that was possibly triggered by the 1977 M=7.4 event (depth 94 km). We calculated a static stress transfer of 0.52–0.78 bar to the hypocentre of the 1986 event. On the contrary, the occurrence of the 1990 event is uncertain: it is located inside the relaxed (shadow) zone of the combined 1977 and 1986 static stress field considering an azimuth for maximum compression of N307° E. It follows that, the 1990 earthquake most likely represents an unbroken patch (asperity) of the 1977 rupture plane that failed due to loading. However, if a different compression azimuth is assumed (N323° E) then the 1990 event was also possibly triggered by static stress transfer of the 1977 and 1986 events (combined). Our modeling is a first-order approximation of the kind of earthquake interaction we might expect at intermediate lithospheric depths (80–90 to 130–140 km). It is also suggested that static stress transfer may explain the clustering of Vrancea earthquakes in space by the rupturing of two (possibly three) NW-dipping major zones of weakness (faults) which accommodate the extension (vertical elongation) of the slab.

Description: This paper evaluates the performance of masonry buildings during the 20 and 27 December 2007 Bala (Ankara) earthquakes. Bala is a township located 50 km southeast from Ankara city in Turkey. The majority of the buildings in the affected region are built in masonry. Most of masonry buildings were formed with random or coursed stone and mud brick walls without any reinforcement. Many of these buildings were damaged or had collapsed. The cracking and failure patterns of the buildings are examined and interpreted according to current provisions for earthquake resistance of masonry structures. The damages are due to several reasons such as poor construction quality and poor workmanship of the buildings. In addition to these reasons, the two earthquakes hit the buildings within seven days, causing progressive damage.

Description: We tested a high-quality laser rangefinder binocular coupled with a GPS receiver connected to a Tablet PC running dedicated software to help recognize and map in the field recent rainfall-induced landslides. The system was tested in the period between March and April 2010, in the Monte Castello di Vibio area, Umbria, Central Italy. To test the equipment, we measured thirteen slope failures that were mapped previously during a visual reconnaissance field campaign conducted in February and March 2010. For reference, four slope failures were also mapped by walking the GPS receiver along the landslide perimeter. Comparison of the different mappings revealed that the geographical information obtained remotely for each landslide by the rangefinder binocular and GPS was comparable to the information obtained by walking the GPS around the landslide perimeter, and was superior to the information obtained through the visual reconnaissance mapping. Although our tests were not exhaustive, we maintain that the system is effective to map recent rainfall induced landslides in the field, and we foresee the possibility of using the same (or similar) system to map landslides, and other geomorphological features, in other areas.

Description: The geomagnetic observatory of Juriquilla Mexico, located at longitude –100.45° and latitude 20.70°, and 1946 m a.s.l., has been operational since June 2004 compiling geomagnetic field measurements with a three component fluxgate magnetometer. In this paper, the results of the analysis of these measurements in relation to important seismic activity in the period of 2007 to 2009 are presented. For this purpose, we used superposed epochs of Discrete Wavelet Transform of filtered signals for the three components of the geomagnetic field during relative seismic calm, and it was compared with seismic events of magnitudes greater than Ms 〉 5.5, which have occurred in Mexico. The analysed epochs consisted of 18 h of observations for a dataset corresponding to 18 different earthquakes (EQs). The time series were processed for a period of 9 h prior to and 9 h after each seismic event. This data processing was compared with the same number of observations during a seismic calm. The proposed methodology proved to be an efficient tool to detect signals associated with seismic activity, especially when the seismic events occur in a distance (D) from the observatory to the EQ, such that the ratio D/ρ 〈 1.8 where ρ is the earthquake radius preparation zone. The methodology presented herein shows important anomalies in the Ultra Low Frequency Range (ULF; 0.005–1 Hz), primarily for 0.25 to 0.5 Hz. Furthermore, the time variance (σ2) increases prior to, during and after the seismic event in relation to the coefficient D1 obtained, principally in the Bx (N-S) and By (E-W) geomagnetic components. Therefore, this paper proposes and develops a new methodology to extract the abnormal signals of the geomagnetic anomalies related to different stages of the EQs.

Description: A model able to describe all the processes involved in a debris flow can be very complex owing to the sudden changing of the material that turns from solid into liquid state. The two phases of the phenomenon are analysed separately referring to soil mechanics procedures with regard to the trigger phase, and to an equivalent fluid for the post-failure phase. The present paper is devoted to show the experimental results carried out to evaluate the behaviour assumed by a pyroclastic-derived soil during the flow. A traditional fluid tool has been utilized: a standard rotational rheometer equipped with two different geometries. The soils tested belong to deposits that cover the slopes of the Campania region, Italy, often affected by debris flows. The influence of solid concentration Cv and grain size distribution was tested: the soils were destructurated, sieved and mixed with water starting from the in situ porosity. All material mixtures showed a non-Newtonian fluid behaviour with a yield stress τy that increases with a solid volumetric concentration and decreases for an increase of sand fraction. The experimental data were fitted with standard model for fluids. A simple relation between Cv and τy was obtained. The yield stress seems to be a key parameter for describing and predicting the post-failure behaviour of debris flows. These results suggest that in the field a small change in solid fraction, due to rainfall, will cause a slight decrease of the static yield stress, readily inducing a rapid flow which will stop only when the dynamic yield stress is reached, namely on a much smoother slope. This can explain the in situ observed post-failure behaviour of debris flows, which are able to flow over very long distances even on smooth slopes.

Description: In the past decade it became customary to relate the probability of appearance of extremely steep (the so-called freak, or rogue waves) to the value of the Benjamin-Feir Index (BFI) that represents the ratio of wave nonlinearity to the spectral width. This ratio appears naturally in the cubic Schrödinger equation that describes evolution of unidirectional narrow-banded wave field. The notion of this index stems from the Benjamin-Feir linear stability analysis of Stokes wave. The application of BFI to evaluate the evolution of wave fields, with non-vanishing amplitudes of sideband disturbances, is investigated using the Zakharov equation as the theoretical model. The present analysis considers a 3-wave system for which the exact analytical solution of the model equations is available.

Description: A new approach was recently proposed to compute climatological statistical sensitivities. It was applied on an already available classification of Mediterranean intense cyclones. However, those sensitivity results are questionable due to the limited homogeneity of some cyclone classes, which severely hampers the application of the statistical sensitivity analysis technique. In this study, a new classification of Mediterranean intense cyclones is built with the aim of improving the reliability of the final climatological sensitivity results. In addition to implementing a regional classification and a subsequent division according to the preceding conditions that lead to cyclone formation, a cluster pruning is applied to maximize the homogeneity of the classes. The increased cluster homogeneity and the higher significance of the obtained sensitivity estimates are quantified. Furthermore, the improved representativeness of the sensitivity fields derived after cluster pruning is tested and compared to previous results by means of numerical experiments. Eventually, summary sensitivity fields highlight the European Atlantic coasts, central and western Europe, the central and western Mediterranean basin and north african lands as sensitive regions for the evolution of these Mediterranean high-impact systems. Although some outstanding improvements are confirmed in this study, a further verification experiments are needed to objectively verify the sensitivity results and build solid confidence on the method.

Description: Tsunami wave generation by submarine landslides of a variable volume in a basin of variable depth is studied within the shallow-water theory. The problem of landslide induced tsunami wave generation and propagation is studied analytically for two specific convex bottom profiles (h ~ x4/3 and h ~ x4). In these cases the basic equations can be reduced to the constant-coefficient wave equation with the forcing determined by the landslide motion. For certain conditions on the landslide characteristics (speed and volume per unit cross-section) the wave field can be described explicitly. It is represented by one forced wave propagating with the speed of the landslide and following its offshore direction, and two free waves propagating in opposite directions with the wave celerity. For the case of a near-resonant motion of the landslide along the power bottom profile h ~ xγ the dynamics of the waves propagating offshore is studied using the asymptotic approach. If the landslide is moving in the fully resonant regime the explicit formula for the amplitude of the wave can be derived. It is demonstrated that generally tsunami wave amplitude varies non-monotonically with distance.

Description: This paper presents RISKMED, a project targeted to create an Early Warning System (EWS) in case of severe or extreme weather events in the central and eastern Mediterranean and specifically in southern Italy, northwestern Greece, Malta and Cyprus. As severe or extreme weather events are considered, cases when the values of some meteorological parameters (temperature, wind, precipitation) exceed certain thresholds, and/or a severe weather phenomenon (thunderstorm, snowfall) occurs. For an accurate weather forecast, selected meteorological models have been operated daily, based on a nesting strategy using two or three domains, providing detailed forecasts over the above mentioned areas. The forecast results are further exploited for the evaluation and prediction of human discomfort and fire weather indices. Finally, sea wave models have also been operating daily over the central and eastern Mediterranean Sea. In case a severe or extreme weather event is forecasted within the next 48 or 72 h for selected target areas (sub-regions defined by their morphological and population characteristics), the local authorities and the public are informed via a user-friendly graphic system, the so-called RISK MAP. On the web page of the Project ( http://www.riskmed.net ), additional information is provided about the real-time values of some meteorological parameters, the latest satellite picture and the time and space distribution of lightning during the last 24 h. The RISKMED project was financed by the EU and th Ministries of National Economy of Greece, Italy, Malta and Cyprus, in the frame of INTERREG IIIB/ARCHIMED programme.

Description: Turkey and neighborhood countries like Greece and Iran are situated on an active earthquake region. Masonry type structures are very common on these countries, especially on the rural areas. During the last earthquakes, several masonry type houses were collapsed, causing loss of life and property. Strengthening methods of masonry houses were discussed in this study. The paper summarizes the results of a experimental programme carried out on models, scaled 1/10, of one-storey masonry buildings. First specimen tested was the reference specimen and used for comparison purposes. Other specimens contained several strengthening strategies. A total of 9 specimens were tested. The results allow to assess the efficiency of the various strengthening techniques employed.

Description: To set an approach for the future territorial planning, the Geological Survey of Friuli Venezia Giulia Region, through the researchers of Trieste University, started a program of debris-flow risk analysis using Flo-2D software as tool to delimit the hazardous areas. In the present paper, as a case study, a debris flow, called Fella sx, occurring in a torrent catchment was analyzed. The choice was due to the abundance of information about past events, inundated areas, rain fall, geology and to its representativeness. An initial back-analysis investigation identified a couple of representative rheological parameters. Riverbed samples were collected, sieve analyses were performed and rheological tests were carried out on the fraction finer than 0.063 mm using a rotationally controlled stress rehometer equipped with the serrated parallel plate geometry. The shear dependent behaviour was examined at different concentrations ranging from 33 to 48%, by weight. Viscosity data treatment was performed to determine the most suitable rheological model to provide the best approximation of the debris-flow behaviour. The rheological parameters, derived from experimental data, were used and compared with those obtained through the back-analysis and with the real inundated area. Data obtained through rheological analysis are useful in constructing scenarios of future events where no data for back-analysis are available.

Description: The potential contribution of remote sensing and GIS techniques to earthquake hazard analysis was investigated in SW-Haiti in order to improve the systematic, standardized inventory of those areas that are more susceptible to earthquake ground motions or to earthquake related secondary effects such as landslides, liquefaction, soil amplifications, compaction or even tsunami-waves. Geophysical, topographical, geological data and satellite images were collected, processed, and integrated into a spatial database using Geoinformation Systems (GIS) and image processing techniques. The GIS integrated evaluation of satellite imageries, of digital topographic data and of various open-source geodata can contribute to the acquisition of those specific tectonic, geomorphologic/topographic settings influencing local site conditions in Haiti and, thus, to a first data base stock. Using the weighted overlay techniques in GIS susceptibility maps were produced indicating areas where causal factors influencing surface-near earthquake shock occur aggregated and interfering each other and, thus, rise the susceptibility to soil amplification. This approach was used as well to create landslide and flooding susceptibility maps.

Description: A new tsunami forecasting method for near-field tsunami warning is presented. This method is applied in the German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System, as part of the Indonesian Tsunami Warning Center in Jakarta, Indonesia. The method employs a rigorous approach to minimize uncertainty in the assessment of tsunami hazard in the near-field. Multiple independent sensors are evaluated simultaneously in order to achieve an accurate estimation of coastal arrival times and wave heights within very short time after a submarine earthquake event. The method is validated employing a synthetic (simulated) tsunami event, and in hindcasting the minor tsunami following the Padang 30 September 2009 earthquake.

Description: The El Chichón volcano (Chiapas, México) most recent eruption occurred in 1982 causing the worst volcanic disaster in the recorded history of Mexico. Prior to the eruption, El Chichón volcano was not considered a very hazardous volcano, a perception mostly caused by the low eruption rate of the past eruptions. The correct assessment of volcanic hazard is the first step to prevent a disaster. In this paper, we analyze two periods of the reported eruptive history of El Chichón volcano during the Holocene, searching for the eruption rates of different VEI magnitude categories and testing their time dependence. One period accounting the eruptions of the last 3707 years before the last eruption (BLE) is assumed to be complete, with no missing relevant events. More scarce information of a period extending to 7772 years BLE is then added. We then apply the Non-Homogeneous Generalized Pareto-Poisson Process (NHGPPP), and the Mixture of Exponentials Distribution (MOED) methods to estimate the volcanic hazard of El Chichón considering both periods. The results are compared with the probabilities obtained from the homogeneous Poisson and Weibull distributions. In this case the MOED and the Weibull distribution are rather insensitive to the inclusion of the extended period. In contrast, the NHGPPP is strongly influenced by the extended period.

Description: Two historical landslide-induced tsunamis that reached the coasts of the French Lesser Antilles are studied. First, the Martinique coast was hit by a tsunami down the western flank of Montagne Pelée at the beginning of the big eruption of May 1902. More recently, the northeastern coast of Guadeloupe was affected by a tsunami that had been generated around Montserrat by pyroclastic flows entering the sea, during the July 2003 eruption of the Soufrière Hills volcano. We use a modified version of the GEOWAVE model to compute numerical simulations of both events. Two source hypotheses are considered for each tsunami. The comparison of the simulation results with reported tsunami height data helps to discriminate between the tested source decriptions. In the Martinique case, we obtain a better fit to data when considering three successive lahars entering the sea, as a simplified single source leads to an overstimation of the tsunami wave heights at the coast. In the Montserrat case, the best model uses a unique source which volume corresponds to published data concerning the peak volume flow. These findings emphasize the importance of an accurate description of the relevant volume as well as the timing sequence of the source event in landslide-generated tsunami modelling. They also show that considering far-field effects in addition to near-field effects may significantly improve tsunami modelling.

Description: During the summer months, when northerly winds are blowing over the Aegean Sea the island of Crete modifies significantly the regional airflow as well as the pressure and temperature fields due to its complex topography. One of the major topographical elements of Crete Island is the major gap which is located between the two highest mountains Lefka Ori and Idi. On 24–25 August 2007 strong northerly winds, with gusts up to 25 m s−1, occurred at the exit of the major gap. In order to investigate the dynamics as well as the role of this elevated and sloping gap on the airflow modification, the event was simulated down to 1 km horizontal resolution using the non-hydrostatic model MM5. The model simulations show that the localized intensification of the flow downstream of the major gap is related to the channeling of the flow through the gap. The strongest winds are observed at the gap exit region, implying that the main cause of the strong winds is the pressure different between the gap entrance and exit, when the relatively cooler maritime air approached the island and dammed up the high mountains. Finally, sensitivity experiments with modified topography further supported the important role of the topography of the elevated gap, which reveals that the strong winds have aspects of both gap and downslope contributions over the gap exit.

Description: During the second half of 2002, the University of Northampton Radon Research Group operated two continuous hourly-sampling radon detectors 2.25 km apart in the English East Midlands. This period included the Dudley earthquake (ML=5, 22 September 2002). Also, at various periods during 2008 the Group has operated other pairs of continuous hourly-sampling radon detectors similar distances apart in the same region. One such period included the Market Rasen earthquake (ML=5.2, 27 February 2008). Windowed cross-correlation of the paired time-series was used to identify simultaneous short-duration anomalies. In the 2002 data, only two periods of significant cross-correlation were observed, each corresponding temporally to a UK earthquake, one to the Dudley earthquake and the other to a smaller earthquake in the English Channel (ML=3, 26 August 2002). In the 2008 data, cross-correlation initially revealed little evidence of simultaneous short-duration anomalies but cross-correlation of data de-noised and de-trended using Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) revealed clear simultaneous short-duration anomalies which correspond temporally to the Market Rasen earthquake.

Description: In Samoa Islands, a powerful earthquake took place at 17:48:10.99 UTC (06:48:10.99 LT) on 29 September 2009 with a magnitude Mw=8.1. Using ICE (Instrument Champ Electrique) and IMSC (Instrument Magnetic Search Coil) experiments onboard the DEMETER (Detection of Electromagnetic Emissions Transmitted from Earthquake Regions) satellite we have surveyed possible variations in electromagnetic signals transmitted by the ground-based VLF transmitter NPM in Hawaii and in HF plasma waves close to the Samoa earthquake during the seismic activity. The indices Dst and Kp were used to distinguish pre-earthquake anomalies from the other anomalies related to the geomagnetic activities. In a previous study we have shown that anomalies in IAP (plasma analyzer) and ISL (Langmuir probe) experiments onboard the DEMETER and also TEC (Total Electron Content) data appear 1 to 5 days before the Samoa earthquake. In this paper we show that the anomalies in the VLF transmitter signal and in the HF range appear with the same time scale. The lack of significant geomagnetic activities indicates that these anomalous behaviors could be regarded as seismo-ionospheric precursors. It is also shown that comparative analysis is more effective in seismo-ionospheric studies.

Description: In the Piedmont Region (North-Western Italy), the regional authorities manage debris flow risk by following the ideal sequence of steps that are generally pursued in land planning and civil protection activities. Complex procedures and methods are elaborated and widely discussed with politicians, economists and the general public. On the contrary, in emergency situations, civil protection agencies generally prefer the adoption of simple and flexible criteria. In this paper, a catastrophic debris flow event, that occurred in 2008 in Villar Pellice, is described in this perspective, after an analysis of the triggering rainfalls and of the effects on human life and properties. The availability of a series of personal accounts coming from people who witnessed the occurrences before, during and after the event has allowed us to analyse, in detail, the dynamics of the event. Thanks to these accounts, it has been possible to propose new guidelines for the planning of the emergency activities in areas that are potentially prone to similar impulsive phenomena.

Description: In the present paper the problem of modeling the propagation of potential debris flows is tackled resorting to a numerical approach. In particular, numerical analyses are carried out with the RASH3D code, based on a single-phase depth-averaged continuum mechanics approach. Since each numerical analysis requires the selection of a rheology and the setting of the rheological input parameters, a calibration-based approach, where the rheological parameters are constrained by systematic adjustment during trial-and-error back-analysis of full-scale events, has been assumed. The back-analysis of a 1000 m3 debris flow, located at Tate's Cairn, Hong Kong, and the forward-analysis of a 10 000 m3 potential debris flow, located in the same basin have been used to investigate the transferability of back-calculated rheological parameters from one case to another. Three different rheologies have been tested: Frictional, Voellmy and Quadratic. From obtained results it emerges that 1) the back-calculation of a past event with different rheologies can help in selecting the rheology that better reproduces the runout of the analysed event and, on the basis of that selection, can give some indication about the dynamics of the investigated flow, 2) the use of back-calculated parameters for forward purposes requires that past and potential events have similar characteristics, some of which are a function of the assumed rheology. Among tested rheologies, it is observed that the Quadratic rheology is more influenced by volume size than Frictional and Voellmy rheologies and consequently its application requires that events are also similar in volume.

Description: The purpose of this research is to collect fundamental data and to establish a performance-based design method for reinforced concrete beams under perpendicular impact load. Series of low speed impact experiments using reinforced concrete beams were performed varying span length, cross section and main reinforcement. The experimental results are evaluated focusing on the impact load characteristics and the impact behaviours of reinforced concrete beams. Various characteristic values and their relationships are investigated such as the collision energy, the impact force duration, the energy absorbed by the beams and the beam response values. Also the bending performance of the reinforced concrete beams against perpendicular impact is evaluated. An equation is proposed to estimate the maximum displacement of the beam based on the collision energy and the static ultimate bending strength. The validity of the proposed equation is confirmed by comparison with experimental results obtained by other researchers as well as numerical results obtained by FEM simulations. The proposed equation allows for a performance based design of the structure accounting for the actual deformation due to the expected impact action.

Description: We perform numerical simulations of the coastal impact of large co-seismic tsunamis, initiated in the Puerto Rican trench, both in far-field areas along the upper US East coast (and other Caribbean islands), and in more detail in the near-field, along the Puerto Rico North Shore (PRNS). We first model a magnitude 9.1 extreme co-seismic source and then a smaller 8.7 magnitude source, which approximately correspond to 600 and 200 year return periods, respectively. In both cases, tsunami generation and propagation (both near- and far-field) are first performed in a coarse 2′ basin scale grid, with ETOPO2 bathymetry, using a fully nonlinear and dispersive long wave tsunami model (FUNWAVE). Coastal runup and inundation are then simulated for two selected areas, using finer coastal nested grids. Thus, a 15″ (450 m) grid is used to calculate detailed far-field impact along the US East Coast, from New Jersey to Maine, and a 3″ (90 m) grid (for the finest resolution), encompassing the entire PRNS, is used to compute detailed near-field impact along the PRNS (runup and inundation). To perform coastal simulations in nested grids, accurate bathymetry/topography databases are constructed by combining ETOPO2 2′ data (in deep water) and USGS' or NOAA's 15″ or 3″ (in shallow water) data. In the far-field, runup caused by the extreme 9.1 source would be severe (over 10 m) for some nearby Caribbean islands, but would only reach up to 3 m along the selected section of the East coast. A sensitivity analysis to the bathymetric resolution (for a constant 3″ model grid) of runup along the PRNS, confirms the convergence of runup results for a topographic resolution 24″ or better, and thus stresses the importance of using sufficiently resolved bathymetric data, in order to accurately predict extreme runup values, particularly when bathymetric focusing is significant. Runup (10–22 m) and inundation are found to be very large at most locations for the extreme 9.1 source. Both simulated spatial inundation snapshots and time series indicate, the inundation would be particularly severe near and around the low-lying city of San Juan. For the 8.7 source, runup along the PRNS would be much less severe (3–6 m), but still significant, while inundation would only be significant near and around San Juan. This first-order tsunami hazard analysis stresses the importance of conducting more detailed and comprehensive studies, particularly of tsunami hazard along the PRNS, for a more complete and realistic selection of sources; such work is ongoing as part of a US funded (NTHMP) tsunami inundation mapping effort in Puerto Rico.

Description: Fast urbanization and the morphological conditions of the Iguaná River Basin, Medellín, Colombia have forced many people to settle on landslide prone slopes as evidenced by extensive landslide induced damage. In this study we used existing disaster databases (inventories) in order to examine the spatial and temporal variability of landsliding within this watershed. The spatial variability of landsliding was examined using "expert-based" and "weighted" landslide susceptibility models. The constructed landslide susceptibility maps demonstrate consistent results irrespective of the underlying method. These show that at least 55.9% of the watershed is highly or very highly susceptible to landsliding. In addition, the temporal distribution of landsliding was analyzed and compared with climatic data. Results show that the area has a distinct bimodal rainfall distribution, and it is clear that landsliding is particularly frequent during the later rainy season between October and November. Moreover, landslides are more common during La Niña years. It is recommended that the existing landslide inventories are improved so as to be of greater use in the future land use planning of the watershed. The construction of landslide susceptibility maps based on existing data represents a significant step towards landslide mitigation in the area. Using susceptibility and hazard assessment during the developmental process should lessen the need for disaster response at a later stage.

Description: We present joint probability distribution functions of future seasonal-mean changes in surface air temperature and precipitation for the European region for the SRES A1B emissions scenario. The probabilistic projections quantify uncertainties in the leading physical, chemical and biological feedbacks and combine information from perturbed physics ensembles, multi-model ensembles and observations.

Description: Huge five earthquakes with magnitude greater than 6.0 took place in Asia (include Philippines, Indonesia, etc.) during the period from the beginning of August 2008 to the end of Junuary 2009, and the corresponding data of subionospheric VLF propagation between the NWC transmitter (Australia, 19.8 kHz) and a few Japanese stations (distance 6~8 Mm) are examined. As the result of our analysis by means of (1) trend (average nighttime amplitude), (2) dispersion, (3) nighttime fluctuation, and (4) atmospheric gravity wave enhancement, three earthquakes from the five taking place within the fifth Frenel zone are found to have accompanied a precursory signature in VLF propagation. On the other hand, there were observed no such precursory signatures for the remaing two earthquakes. One is too deep (〉400 km) and another is too distant from the great-circle path. These characteristics of seismo-ionospheric perturbations would be of essential importance in studying the spatial/temporal properties of seismo-ionospheric perturbations for medium-distance propagation.

Description: In Italy, rainfall is the primary trigger of landslides that frequently cause fatalities and large economic damage. Using a variety of information sources, we have compiled a catalogue listing 753 rainfall events that have resulted in landslides in Italy. For each event in the catalogue, the exact or approximate location of the landslide and the time or period of initiation of the slope failure is known, together with information on the rainfall duration D, and the rainfall mean intensity I, that have resulted in the slope failure. The catalogue represents the single largest collection of information on rainfall-induced landslides in Italy, and was exploited to determine the minimum rainfall conditions necessary for landslide occurrence in Italy, and in the Abruzzo Region, central Italy. For the purpose, new national rainfall thresholds for Italy and new regional rainfall thresholds for the Abruzzo Region were established, using two independent statistical methods, including a Bayesian inference method and a new Frequentist approach. The two methods proved complementary, with the Bayesian method more suited to analyze small data sets, and the Frequentist method performing better when applied to large data sets. The new regional thresholds for the Abruzzo Region are lower than the new national thresholds for Italy, and lower than the regional thresholds proposed in the literature for the Piedmont and Lombardy Regions in northern Italy, and for the Campania Region in southern Italy. This is important, because it shows that landslides in Italy can be triggered by less severe rainfall conditions than previously recognized. The Frequentist method experimented in this work allows for the definition of multiple minimum rainfall thresholds, each based on a different exceedance probability level. This makes the thresholds suited for the design of probabilistic schemes for the prediction of rainfall-induced landslides. A scheme based on four probabilistic thresholds is proposed. The four thresholds separate five fields, each characterized by different rainfall intensity-duration conditions, and corresponding different probability of possible landslide occurrence. The scheme can be implemented in landslide warning systems that operate on rainfall thresholds, and on precipitation measurements or forecasts.

Description: Two hourly-sampled time-series of soil-gas radon concentrations of durations of the order of a year have been investigated for periodic and anomalous phenomena. These time-series have been recorded in locations having little or no routine human behaviour and thus are effectively free of significant anthropogenic influences. One measurement site, Sur-Frêtes, is located in the French Alps, with saturated soil conditions; the second site, Syabru-Bensi, is located in Nepal, in a river terrace with unsaturated soil conditions. In such conditions, periodic components with periods ranging from 8 h to 7 days are often weak and intermittent and therefore, even in the presence of stationary forcing, difficult to identify. Two spectral decomposition techniques, Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA), have been applied to these time series and yield similar results. For Sur-Frêtes, weak diurnal and semi-diurnal components are observed with EMD, while SSA reveals only a diurnal component. In Syabru-Bensi, both EMD and SSA reveal a strong diurnal component and a weaker semi-diurnal component. Tidal components M1 and M2 are also suggested by EMD in Sur-Frêtes, while these frequencies are not observed in Syabru-Bensi. The development of such analytical techniques can help in characterising the multiple physical processes contributing to the surface and subsurface dynamics of soil gases.

Description: A self adaptive approach (RST, Robust Satellite Technique) has been proposed as a suitable tool for satellite TIR surveys in seismically active regions devoted to detect and monitor thermal anomalies possibly related to earthquake occurrence. In this work, RST approach has been applied to 15 years of AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) thermal infrared observations in order to study the 6 April 2009 Abruzzo earthquake. Preliminary results show clear differences in TIR anomalies occurrence during the periods used for validation (15 March–15 April 2009) and the one (15 March–15 April 2008) without earthquakes with ML≥4.5, used for confutation purposes. Quite clear TIR anomalies appears also to mark main tectonic lineaments during the preparatory phases of others, low magnitude(3.9

Description: The Australian megatsunami hypothesis has been developed over two decades. It charts repeated inundation of the South East Australian coast during the Holocene by bolide impact megatsunamis. The most enigmatic evidence for these proposed events are high elevation cliff-top boulders. There is however an absence of known sources for these megatsunamis, and as such we question whether the researchers may have the correct mechanism but the wrong events. Given the low denudation rates of this passive, intraplate environment, we suggest that boulder emplacement may have been solely the result of the much older Eltanin asteroid tsunami about 2.5 Ma ago.

Description: Temporal dynamical analysis in fire sequences recorded from 1969 to 2008 in Canton Ticino (Switzerland) was carried out by using the Allan Factor statistics. The obtained results show the presence of daily periodicities, superimposed to two time-scaling regimes. The daily cycle vanishes for sequences of higher altitude fires, for which a single scaling behaviour is observed.

Description: A novel method of data processing – a structural functions curvature analysis method – was applied to the time series of seismodeformation monitoring of Baikal rift zone from April to November 2008, revealing the unique features of monitoring variable behaviour that can be considered as a revelation of precursors to the intensive South-Biakal earthquake (M=6.3, at 09:31 on 27 August 2008). The idea of a new approach leans upon basic ideas of modern physics of self-organized criticality and open non-equilibrium systems in general.

Description: Many slopes in the Alps are prone to rockfall and forests play a vital role in protecting objects such as (rail) roads and infrastructure against rockfall. Decision support tools are required to assess rockfall processes and to quantify the rockfall protection effect of forest stands. This paper presents results of an iterative sequence of tests and improvements of a coupled rockfall and forest dynamics model with focus on the rockfall module. As evaluation data a real-size rockfall experiment in the French Alps and two 2-D rockfall trajectories from Austria and Switzerland were used. Modification of the rebound algorithm and the inclusion of an algorithm accounting for the sudden halt of falling rocks due to surface roughness greatly improved the correspondence between simulated and observed key rockfall variables like run-out distances, rebound heights and jump lengths for the real-size rockfall experiment. Moreover, the observed jump lengths and run-out distances of the 2-D trajectories were well within the stochastic range of variation yielded by the simulations. Based on evaluation results it is concluded that the rockfall model can be employed to assess the protective effect of forest vegetation.

Description: An atmospheric depression passed over northwest Slovenia on 18 September 2007 producing precipitation that exceeded 300 mm/d and a 100-year return period runoff in Zelezniki tributary. The resultant flash flood in the study area, which consisted of five basins, was simulated with the conceptual distributed hydrological model HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning). The model was calibrated and validated with past rainfall – runoff events with satisfactory results producing values of Nash – Sutcliffe coefficient between 0.82 and 0.96. The validated model was applied to the flash flood case with stream gauge failure, driven by spatiotemporal precipitation produced by a set of rain gauges and radar data. The model delivered satisfactory results on three out of five basin outlets while the other two had stream gauge failure during the event. The internal basin dynamics of the most affected area in Zelezniki, was successfully tested in eight of its sub-basins by comparing the peak discharges with the ones evaluated by the slope-conveyance method during a detailed intensive post event campaign. The added value of this method is in the reduced uncertainty in peak discharge estimation and event interpretation and in an effective flash flood warning system for the study area when it is combined with radar nowcasts and operational high resolution short range weather forecast models.

Description: We study pattern formation in an optical system composed of a Kerr medium subjected to optical feedback but in a regime very far from the modulational instability threshold. In this highly nonlinear regime, the dynamics is turbulent and the associated one-dimensional patterns depict rare and intense localized optical peaks. We analyse numerically and experimentally the statistics and features of these intense optical peaks and show that their probability density functions (PDF) have a long tail indicating the occurrence of rogue events.

Description: This paper presents the results of research into the post-earthquake displacements of the partially constructed road viaducts in Bolu, Turkey after the Izmit/Kocaeli, (Mw = 7.4), and Düzce (Mw = 7.1) earthquakes on 17 August and 12 November 1999, respectively. The investigations on the viaducts were carried out using both Geodetic and Finite Element Methods (FEM). Firstly, all the geodetic network stations selected for the project were checked because of the recent deformation in the area. Then, new control stations were placed between the piers of the viaducts. 28 object points were placed and measured on each pier to determine their displacements. In the second stage, the behaviours of the viaducts were modelled using the FEM, and the Düzce earthquake acceleration record was analysed to observe the response of the viaducts in a time history domain. The modelled displacement response of the viaducts was compared with the geodetic measurements in order to interpret the sensitivity of the design calculation of the engineering model. The pier displacements that were geodetically measured and calculated using FEM peak pier displacements showed an increase in the piers located closer to the surface rupture from the Izmit/Kocaeli and Düzce earthquakes. The agreement between the observed and modelled displacements decreases with the increase in the distance from the fault line. Since, near the fault trace the horizontal displacement field is discontinuous and large inelastic deformation is expected, the behaviour of the part of the structure located near the fault line cannot be easily reproduced by FEM simulations. This is because the applied model loads derived from the source acceleration spectra cannot be included in the localized finite deformation effects. In order to obtain an improved engineering analysis, it is necessary to utilise more parameters in the numerical analysis.

Description: The Sumatra-Andaman earthquake with a magnitude of 9.3, and the subsequent destructive tsunami which caused more than 225 000 fatalities in the region of the Indian Ocean, happened on 26 December 2004. Less than one month later, the United Nations (UN) World Conference on Disaster Reduction took place in Kobe, Japan to commemorate the 1995 Kobe earthquake. The importance of preparedness and awareness on regional, national and community levels with respect to natural disasters was discussed during this meeting, and resulted in the approval of the Hyogo Declaration on Disaster Reduction. Based on this declaration the UN mandated the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO (United Nations Education, Science and Cultural Organization), taking note of its over 40 years of successful coordination of the Pacific Tsunami Warning System (PTWC), to take on the international coordination of national early-warning efforts for the Indian Ocean and to guide the process of setting up a Regional Tsunami Early Warning System for the Indian Ocean.

Description: A rapid growth of population, intensive civil and industrial building, land and water instabilities (e.g. landslides, significant underground water level fluctuations), and the lack of public awareness regarding seismic hazard contribute to the increase of vulnerability of Baku (the capital city of the Republic of Azerbaijan) to earthquakes. In this study, we assess an earthquake risk in the city determined as a convolution of seismic hazard (in terms of the surface peak ground acceleration, PGA), vulnerability (due to building construction fragility, population features, the gross domestic product per capita, and landslide's occurrence), and exposure of infrastructure and critical facilities. The earthquake risk assessment provides useful information to identify the factors influencing the risk. A deterministic seismic hazard for Baku is analysed for four earthquake scenarios: near, far, local, and extreme events. The seismic hazard models demonstrate the level of ground shaking in the city: PGA high values are predicted in the southern coastal and north-eastern parts of the city and in some parts of the downtown. The PGA attains its maximal values for the local and extreme earthquake scenarios. We show that the quality of buildings and the probability of their damage, the distribution of urban population, exposure, and the pattern of peak ground acceleration contribute to the seismic risk, meanwhile the vulnerability factors play a more prominent role for all earthquake scenarios. Our results can allow elaborating strategic countermeasure plans for the earthquake risk mitigation in the Baku city.

Description: Wildfire simulation modelling was used to examine whether fuel reduction treatments can potentially reduce future wildfire emissions and provide carbon benefits. In contrast to previous reports, the current study modelled landscape scale effects of fuel treatments on fire spread and intensity, and used a probabilistic framework to quantify wildfire effects on carbon pools to account for stochastic wildfire occurrence. The study area was a 68 474 ha watershed located on the Fremont-Winema National Forest in southeastern Oregon, USA. Fuel reduction treatments were simulated on 10% of the watershed (19% of federal forestland). We simulated 30 000 wildfires with random ignition locations under both treated and untreated landscapes to estimate the change in burn probability by flame length class resulting from the treatments. Carbon loss functions were then calculated with the Forest Vegetation Simulator for each stand in the study area to quantify change in carbon as a function of flame length. We then calculated the expected change in carbon from a random ignition and wildfire as the sum of the product of the carbon loss and the burn probabilities by flame length class. The expected carbon difference between the non-treatment and treatment scenarios was then calculated to quantify the effect of fuel treatments. Overall, the results show that the carbon loss from implementing fuel reduction treatments exceeded the expected carbon benefit associated with lowered burn probabilities and reduced fire severity on the treated landscape. Thus, fuel management activities resulted in an expected net loss of carbon immediately after treatment. However, the findings represent a point in time estimate (wildfire immediately after treatments), and a temporal analysis with a probabilistic framework used here is needed to model carbon dynamics over the life cycle of the fuel treatments. Of particular importance is the long-term balance between emissions from the decay of dead trees killed by fire and carbon sequestration by forest regeneration following wildfire.

Description: Within the last decades serious flooding events occurred in many parts of Europe and especially in 2005 the Austrian Federal Province of Tyrol was serious affected. These events in general and particularly the 2005 event have sensitised decision makers and the public. Beside discussions pertaining to protection goals and lessons learnt, the issue concerning potential consequences of extreme and severe flooding events has been raised. Additionally to the general interest of the public, decision makers of the insurance industry, public authorities, and responsible politicians are especially confronted with the question of possible consequences of extreme events. Answers thereof are necessary for the implementation of preventive appropriate risk management strategies. Thereby, property and liability losses reflect a large proportion of the direct tangible losses. These are of great interest for the insurance sector and can be understood as main indicators to interpret the severity of potential events. The natural scientific-technical risk analysis concept provides a predefined and structured framework to analyse the quantities of affected elements at risk, their corresponding damage potentials, and the potential losses. Generally, this risk concept framework follows the process steps hazard analysis, exposition analysis, and consequence analysis. Additionally to the conventional hazard analysis, the potential amount of endangered elements and their corresponding damage potentials were analysed and, thereupon, concrete losses were estimated. These took the specific vulnerability of the various individual elements at risk into consideration. The present flood risk analysis estimates firstly the general exposures of the risk indicators in the study area and secondly analyses the specific exposures and consequences of five extreme event scenarios. In order to precisely identify, localize, and characterize the relevant risk indicators of buildings, dwellings and inventory, vehicles, and individuals, a detailed geodatabase of the existing stock of elements and values was established on a single object level. Therefore, the localized and functional differentiated stock of elements was assessed monetarily on the basis of derived representative mean insurance values. Thus, well known difference factors between the analysis of the stock of elements and values on local and on regional scale could be reduced considerably. The spatial join of the results of the hazard analysis with the stock of elements and values enables the identification and quantification of the elements at risk and their corresponding damage potential. Thereupon, Extreme Scenario Losses (ESL) were analysed under consideration of different vulnerability approaches which describe the individual element's specific susceptibility. This results in scenario-specific ranges of ESL rather than in single values. The exposure analysis of the general endangerment in Tyrol identifies (i) 105 330 individuals, (ii) 20 272 buildings and 50 157 dwellings with a corresponding damage potential of approx. EUR 20 bn. and (iii) 62 494 vehicles with a corresponding damage potential of EUR 1 bn. Depending on the individual extreme event scenarios, the ESL solely to buildings and inventory vary between EUR 0.9–1.3 bn. for the scenario with the least ESL and EUR 2.2–2.5 bn. for the most serious scenarios. The correlation of the private property losses to buildings and inventory with further direct tangible loss categories on the basis of investigation after the event in 2005, results in potential direct tangible ESL of up to EUR 7.6 bn. Apart from the specific study results a general finding shows that beside the further development of modelling capabilities and scenario concepts, the key to considerably decrease uncertainties of integral flood risk analyses is the development and implementation of more precise methods. These are to determine the stock of elements and values and to evaluate the vulnerability or susceptibility of affected structures to certain flood characteristics more differentiated.

Description: Debris flow hazard modelling at medium (regional) scale has been subject of various studies in recent years. In this study, hazard zonation was carried out, incorporating information about debris flow initiation probability (spatial and temporal), and the delimitation of the potential runout areas. Debris flow hazard zonation was carried out in the area of the Consortium of Mountain Municipalities of Valtellina di Tirano (Central Alps, Italy). The complexity of the phenomenon, the scale of the study, the variability of local conditioning factors, and the lacking data limited the use of process-based models for the runout zone delimitation. Firstly, a map of hazard initiation probabilities was prepared for the study area, based on the available susceptibility zoning information, and the analysis of two sets of aerial photographs for the temporal probability estimation. Afterwards, the hazard initiation map was used as one of the inputs for an empirical GIS-based model (Flow-R), developed at the University of Lausanne (Switzerland). An estimation of the debris flow magnitude was neglected as the main aim of the analysis was to prepare a debris flow hazard map at medium scale. A digital elevation model, with a 10 m resolution, was used together with landuse, geology and debris flow hazard initiation maps as inputs of the Flow-R model to restrict potential areas within each hazard initiation probability class to locations where debris flows are most likely to initiate. Afterwards, runout areas were calculated using multiple flow direction and energy based algorithms. Maximum probable runout zones were calibrated using documented past events and aerial photographs. Finally, two debris flow hazard maps were prepared. The first simply delimits five hazard zones, while the second incorporates the information about debris flow spreading direction probabilities, showing areas more likely to be affected by future debris flows. Limitations of the modelling arise mainly from the models applied and analysis scale, which are neglecting local controlling factors of debris flow hazard. The presented approach of debris flow hazard analysis, associating automatic detection of the source areas and a simple assessment of the debris flow spreading, provided results for consequent hazard and risk studies. However, for the validation and transferability of the parameters and results to other study areas, more testing is needed.

Description: Seismic-induced landslide hazards are studied using seismic shaking intensity based on the topographic amplification effect. The estimation of the topographic effect includes the theoretical topographic amplification factors and the corresponding amplified ground motion. Digital elevation models (DEM) with a 5-m grid space are used. The logistic regression model and the geographic information system (GIS) are used to perform the seismic landslide hazard analysis. The 99 Peaks area, located 3 km away from the ruptured fault of the Chi-Chi earthquake, is used to test the proposed hypothesis. An inventory map of earthquake-triggered landslides is used to produce a dependent variable that takes a value of 0 (no landslides) or 1 (landslides). A set of independent parameters, including lithology, elevation, slope gradient, slope aspect, terrain roughness, land use, and Arias intensity (Ia) with the topographic effect. Subsequently, logistic regression is used to find the best fitting function to describe the relationship between the occurrence and absence of landslides within an individual grid cell. The results of seismic landslide hazard analysis that includes the topographic effect (AUROC = 0.890) are better than those of the analysis without it (AUROC = 0.874).

Description: Various methods are currently used in order to predict shallow landslides within the catchment scale. Among them, physically based models present advantages associated with the physical description of processes by means of mathematical equations. The main objective of this research is the prediction of shallow landslides using TRIGRS model, in a pilot catchment located at Serra do Mar mountain range, São Paulo State, southeastern Brazil. Susceptibility scenarios have been simulated taking into account different mechanical and hydrological values. These scenarios were analysed based on a landslide scars map from the January 1985 event, upon which two indexes were applied: Scars Concentration (SC – ratio between the number of cells with scars, in each class, and the total number of cells with scars within the catchment) and Landslide Potential (LP – ratio between the number of cells with scars, in each class, and the total number of cells in that same class). The results showed a significant agreement between the simulated scenarios and the scar's map. In unstable areas (SF≤1), the SC values exceeded 50% in all scenarios. Based on the results, the use of this model should be considered an important tool for shallow landslide prediction, especially in areas where mechanical and hydrological properties of the materials are not well known.

Description: An innovative newly developed modular and standards based Decision Support System (DSS) is presented which forms part of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS). The GITEWS project stems from the effort to implement an effective and efficient Tsunami Early Warning and Mitigation System for the coast of Indonesia facing the Sunda Arc along the islands of Sumatra, Java and Bali. The geological setting along an active continental margin which is very close to densely populated areas is a particularly difficult one to cope with, because potential tsunamis' travel times are thus inherently short. National policies require an initial warning to be issued within the first five minutes after an earthquake has occurred. There is an urgent requirement for an end-to-end solution where the decision support takes the entire warning chain into account. The system of choice is based on pre-computed scenario simulations and rule-based decision support which is delivered to the decision maker through a sophisticated graphical user interface (GUI) using information fusion and fast information aggregation to create situational awareness in the shortest time possible. The system also contains risk and vulnerability information which was designed with the far end of the warning chain in mind – it enables the decision maker to base his acceptance (or refusal) of the supported decision also on regionally differentiated risk and vulnerability information (see Strunz et al., 2010). While the system strives to provide a warning as quickly as possible, it is not in its proper responsibility to send and disseminate the warning to the recipients. The DSS only broadcasts its messages to a dissemination system (and possibly any other dissemination system) which is operated under the responsibility of BMKG – the meteorological, climatological and geophysical service of Indonesia – which also hosts the tsunami early warning center. The system is to be seen as one step towards the development of a "system of systems" enabling all countries around the Indian Ocean to have such early warning systems in place. It is within the responsibility of the UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceonographic Commission (IOC) and in particular its Intergovernmental Coordinating Group (ICG) to coordinate and give recommendations for such a development. Therefore the Decision Support System presented here is designed to be modular, extensible and interoperable (Raape et al., 2010).

Description: Sedimentation processes occurring in the most recent maar lake of the French Massif Central (Lake Pavin) are documented for the first time based on high resolution seismic reflection and multibeam bathymetric surveys and by piston coring and radiocarbon dating on a sediment depocentre developed on a narrow sub aquatic plateau. This new data set confirms the mid Holocene age of maar lake Pavin formation at 6970±60 yrs cal BP and highlights a wide range of gravity reworking phenomena affecting the basin. In particular, a slump deposit dated between AD 580–640 remoulded both mid-Holocene lacustrine sediments, terrestrial plant debris and some volcanic material from the northern crater inner walls. Between AD 1200 and AD 1300, a large slide scar mapped at 50 m depth also affected the southern edge of the sub aquatic plateau, suggesting that these gas-rich biogenic sediments (laminated diatomite) are poorly stable. Although several triggering mechanisms can be proposed for these prehistoric sub-aquatic mass wasting deposits in Lake Pavin, we argue that such large remobilisation of gas-rich sediments may affect the gas stability in deep waters of meromictic maar lakes. This study highlights the need to further document mass wasting processes in maar lakes and their impacts on the generation of waves, favouring the development of dangerous (and potentially deadly) limnic eruptions.

Description: The aim of this paper is to propose a simplified methodology to evaluate the mechanical performances of buildings exposed to landslide hazard, by using procedures inspired from the seismic risk analysis, such as the Capacity Spectrum Method (ATC 40, 1996). Landslide hazard involves so many aspects, that quantitative vulnerability assessment requires to consider one basic scenario at a time, i.e. one typology for the landslide hazard and one for the structural element considered. In this paper, we propose to assess vulnerability for simple one bay-one storey reinforced concrete (RC) frame structures subjected to differential settlements, using 2-D parametric nonlinear static time-history analyses. After a short review of methods used in practice to estimate building deformations induced by ground movements (e.g. differential settlements), we present the parametric studies carried out to identify the most relevant parameters, in order to predict the structural damage, as well as the methodology to develop analytical fragility curves, that can be used to quantitatively evaluate the structural vulnerability in landslide risk analyses. Different types of parameters that could influence structural behaviour have been examined in this analysis: foundation type (i.e. different combinations of links), cross-section geometry, section reinforcement degree, displacement magnitudes and displacement inclination angles. We show that the magnitude and inclination angle of displacements can be used as two relevant parameters for this type of landslide scenario. Based on these results, some simulations are conducted using the software SeismoStruct (SeismoSoft, 2003), and the proposed structural damage levels consider the local strain limits of steel and concrete constitutive materials. Some preliminary fragility curves are proposed with respect to the magnitude of differential ground displacement. It can be seen that the curves corresponding to limit states LS2 (moderate damage) and LS4 (complete damage) in the present study, correspond respectively to the "tolerable settlements" "observed intolerable settlements" curves proposed by Zhang and Ng (2005).

Description: Comprehensive analysis of 15 previously published regional databases incorporating more than 100 sources leads to a newly revised historical tsunami database for the northeastern (NE) region of the South China Sea (SCS) including Taiwan. The validity of each reported historical tsunami event listed in our database is assessed by comparing and contrasting the information and descriptions provided in the other databases. All earlier databases suffer from errors associated with inaccuracies in translation between different languages, calendars and location names. The new database contains 205 records of "events" reported to have occurred between AD 1076 and 2009. We identify and investigate 58 recorded tsunami events in the region. The validity of each event is based on the consistency and accuracy of the reports along with the relative number of individual records for that event. Of the 58 events, 23 are regarded as "valid" (confirmed) events, three are "probable" events and six are "possible". Eighteen events are considered "doubtful" and eight events "invalid". The most destructive tsunami of the 23 valid events occurred in 1867 and affected Keelung, northern Taiwan, killing at least 100 people. Inaccuracies in the historical record aside, this new database highlights the occurrence and geographical extent of several large tsunamis in the NE SCS region and allows an elementary statistical analysis of annual recurrence intervals. Based on historical records from 1951–2009 the probability of a tsunami (from any source) affecting the region in any given year is relatively high (33.4%). However, the likelihood of a tsunami that has a wave height 〉1 m, and/or causes fatalities and damage to infrastructure occurring in the region in any given year is low (1–2%). This work indicates the need for further research using coastal stratigraphy and inundation modeling to help validate some of the historical accounts of tsunamis as well as adequately evaluate the recurrence intervals of tsunamis along the now heavily developed coastlines of the region.

Description: Land cover is affected by many factors including economic development, climate and natural disturbances such as wildfires. The ability to evaluate how fire regimes may alter future vegetation, and how future vegetation may alter fire regimes, would assist forest managers in planning management actions to be carried out in the face of anticipated socio-economic and climatic change. In this paper, we present a method for calibrating a cellular automata wildfire regime simulation model with actual data on land cover and wildfire size-frequency. The method is based on the observation that many forest fire regimes, in different forest types and regions, exhibit power law frequency-area distributions. The standard Drossel-Schwabl cellular automata Forest Fire Model (DS-FFM) produces simulations which reproduce this observed pattern. However, the standard model is simplistic in that it considers land cover to be binary – each cell either contains a tree or it is empty – and the model overestimates the frequency of large fires relative to actual landscapes. Our new model, the Modified Forest Fire Model (MFFM), addresses this limitation by incorporating information on actual land use and differentiating among various types of flammable vegetation. The MFFM simulation model was tested on forest types with Mediterranean and sub-tropical fire regimes. The results showed that the MFFM was able to reproduce structural fire regime parameters for these two regions. Further, the model was used to forecast future land cover. Future research will extend this model to refine the forecasts of future land cover and fire regime scenarios under climate, land use and socio-economic change.

Description: This study combines AHP and GIS to provide decision makers with a model to ensure optimal site location(s) for fire stations selected. The roles of AHP and GIS in determining optimal locations are explained, criteria for site selection are outlined, and case study results for finding the optimal fire station locations in Istanbul, Turkey are included. The city of Istanbul has about 13 million residents and is the largest and most populated city in Turkey. The rapid and constant growth of Istanbul has resulted in the increased number of fire related cases. Fire incidents tend to increase year by year in parallel with city expansion, population and hazardous material facilities. Istanbul has seen a rise in reported fire incidents from 12 769 in 1994 to 30 089 in 2009 according to the interim report of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality Department of Fire Brigade. The average response time was approximately 7 min 3 s in 2009. The goal of this study is to propose optimal sites for new fire station creation to allow the Fire Brigade in Istanbul to reduce the average response time to 5 min or less. After determining the necessity of suggesting additional fire stations, the following steps are taken into account: six criteria are considered in this analysis. They are: High Population Density (HPD); Proximity to Main Roads (PMR); Distance from Existing Fire Stations (DEF); Distance from Hazardous Material Facilities (DHM); Wooden Building Density (WBD); and Distance from the Areas Subjected to Earthquake Risk (DER). DHM criterion, with the weight of 40%, is the most important criterion in this analysis. The remaining criteria have a weight range from 9% to 16%. Moreover, the following steps are performed: representation of criterion map layers in GIS environment; classification of raster datasets; calculating the result raster map (suitability map for potential fire stations); and offering a model that supports decision makers in selecting fire station sites. The existing 35 fire stations are used and 17 fire stations are newly suggested in the study area.

Description: Strain analysis is one of the methods for the kinematic analysis of the repeated geodetic measurements. In order to derive strain accumulation in Marmara Region, different institutions carried out several Global Positioning System (GPS) campaigns in 1999 and 2006. The GPS campaigns were performed on the geodetic network which cover the provinces: Kirklareli, Tekirdag, Bursa, Bilecik and Adapazari. Then, the displacements of the network stations were estimated by means of analysing the GPS space geodetic measurements. For the assessment of the datum differences between 1999 and 2006 on the station coordinates, 3-D Helmert transformation was applied to the coordinates of each 1999 and 2006 datum. Then, a global test was introduced to determine the significant deformation which occurred in the geodetic GPS network. Strain accumulation with a finite element model was then computed. First, triangles were constructed for the whole network with the Delaunay method. Hereafter, strain parameters were calculated for each triangle. Maximum values of strain accumulation were found around the surroundings of Marmara Ereglisi and Izmit, whereas minimum values are around Istanbul.

Description: The vulnerability of buildings to the impact of rockfalls is a topic that has recently attracted increasing attention in the scientific literature. The quantification of the vulnerability, when based on empirical or heuristic approaches requires data recorded from historical rockfalls, which are not always available. This is the reason why appropriate alternatives are required. The use of analytical and numerical models can be one of them. In this paper, a methodology is proposed for the analytical evaluation of the vulnerability of reinforced concrete buildings. The vulnerability is included in the risk equation by incorporating the uncertainty of the impact location of the rock block and the subsequent damage level. The output is a weighted vulnerability that ranges from 0 to 1 and expresses the potential damage that a rock block causes to a building in function of its velocity and size. The vulnerability is calculated by the sum of the products of the probability of block impact on each element of the building and its associated damage state, the latter expressed in relative recovery cost terms. The probability of exceeding a specific damage state such as non-structural, local, partial, extensive or total collapse is also important for the quantification of risk and to this purpose, several sets of fragility curves for various rock diameters and increasing velocities have been prepared. An example is shown for the case of a simple reinforced concrete building and impact energies from 0 to 4075 kJ.

Description: A probabilistic eruption forecast is provided for ten volcanoes of the Chilean Southern Volcanic Zone (SVZ). Since 70% of the Chilean population lives in this area, the estimation of future eruption likelihood is an important part of hazard assessment. After investigating the completeness and stationarity of the historical eruption time series, the exponential, Weibull, and log-logistic distribution functions are fit to the repose time distributions for the individual volcanoes and the models are evaluated. This procedure has been implemented in two different ways to methodologically compare details in the fitting process. With regard to the probability of at least one VEI ≥ 2 eruption in the next decade, Llaima, Villarrica and Nevados de Chillán are most likely to erupt, while Osorno shows the lowest eruption probability among the volcanoes analysed. In addition to giving a compilation of the statistical eruption forecasts along the historically most active volcanoes of the SVZ, this paper aims to give "typical" eruption probabilities, which may in the future permit to distinguish possibly enhanced activity in the aftermath of the large 2010 Concepción earthquake.

Description: For the purpose of flood risk analysis, reliable loss models are an indispensable need. The most common models use stage-damage functions relating damage to water depth. They are often derived from empirical flood loss data (i.e. loss data collected after a flood event). However, object specific loss data (e.g. losses of single residential buildings) from recent flood events in Germany showed higher average losses in less probable events, regardless of actual water level. Hence, models that were derived from such data tend to overestimate losses caused by more probable events. Therefore, it is the aim of the study to analyse the relation between flood damage and recurrence interval and to propose a method for considering recurrence interval in flood loss modelling. The survey was based on residential building loss data (n=2158) of recent flood events in 2002, 2005 and 2006 in Germany and on-site recurrence interval of the respective events. We discovered a highly significant positive correlation between loss extent and recurrence interval for classified water levels as well as increasing average losses for longer recurrence intervals within each class. The application of principal component analysis revealed the interrelation between factors that influence the damage extent directly or indirectly, and recurrence interval. No single factor or component could be identified that explained the influence of recurrence interval, which led to the conclusion that recurrence interval cannot substitute, but complement other damage influencing factors in flood loss modelling approaches. Finally, a method was developed to include recurrence interval in typical flood loss models and make them applicable to a wider range of flood events. Validation including statistical error analysis showed that the modified models improve loss estimates in comparison to traditional approaches. The proposed multi-parameter model FLEMOps+r performs particularly well.

Description: The strength and rigidity of most reinforced concrete (RC) buildings in Turkey, which are frequently hit by destructive earthquakes, is not at a sufficient level. Therefore, the result of earthquakes is a significant loss of life and property. The strengthening method most commonly preferred for these type of RC buildings is the application of RC infilled walls (shear walls) in the frame openings of the building. However, since the whole building has to be emptied and additional heavy costs arise during this type of strengthening, users prefer not to strengthen their buildings despite the heavy risk they are exposed to. Therefore, it is necessary to develop easier-to-apply and more effective methods for the rapid strengthening of housing and the heavily-used public buildings which cannot be emptied during the strengthening process (such as hospitals and schools). This study empirically analyses the different methods of a new system which can meet this need. In this new system, named "external shear wall application", RC shear walls are applied on the external surface of the building, along the frame plane rather than in the building. To this end, 7 test samples in 1/2 and 1/3 geometrical scale were designed to analyse the efficiency of the strengthening technique where the shear wall leans on the frame from outside of the building (external shear wall application) and of the strengthening technique where a specific space is left between the frame and the external shear wall by using a coupling beam to connect elements (application of external shear wall with coupling beam). Test results showed that the maximum lateral load capacity, initial rigidity and energy dissipation behaviours of the samples strengthened with external shear wall were much better than those of the bare frames.

Description: One of the potential dangers that might arise as a result of bringing excessive amounts of groundwater to the surface of the Earth is land subsidence. Such surface deformations – these velocities may vary from a few millimetres to a few metres per year – do the greatest damage to infrastructure facilities and buildings in residential units. Agricultural lands, in which excessive irrigation is performed, and densely populated cities are more likely to suffer from land subsidence. Konya Closed Basin (KCB), where a rapid groundwater withdrawal has been observed during the last 30–40 years, is faced with such a threat. In this study, the possibility of the occurrence of land subsidence, related to groundwater withdrawal for the KCB, is assessed and the geodetic studies conducted up to now, with the intention of identifying land subsidence, are introduced. The vertical displacements of between -12 and -52 mm/year have been detected through GNSS observations collected on the 6-point test network. The land subsidence phenomenon has been developing in the areas where the groundwater is extensively used for irrigation and daily life. The results support the findings derived from the historical leveling records and point out the need of an extended study based on both GNSS and InSAR techniques for spatial and temporal mapping of land subsidence in the KCB.

Description: A quantitative approach for landslide risk assessment along transportation lines is presented and applied to a road and a railway alignment in the Nilgiri hills in southern India. The method allows estimating direct risk affecting the alignments, vehicles and people, and indirect risk resulting from the disruption of economic activities. The data required for the risk estimation were obtained from historical records. A total of 901 landslides were catalogued initiating from cut slopes along the railway and road alignment. The landslides were grouped into three magnitude classes based on the landslide type, volume, scar depth, run-out distance, etc and their probability of occurrence was obtained using frequency-volume distribution. Hazard, for a given return period, expressed as the number of landslides of a given magnitude class per kilometre of cut slopes, was obtained using Gumbel distribution and probability of landslide magnitude. In total 18 specific hazard scenarios were generated using the three magnitude classes and six return periods (1, 3, 5, 15, 25, and 50 years). The assessment of the vulnerability of the road and railway line was based on damage records whereas the vulnerability of different types of vehicles and people was subjectively assessed based on limited historic incidents. Direct specific loss for the alignments (railway line and road), vehicles (train, bus, lorry, car and motorbike) was expressed in monetary value (US$), and direct specific loss of life of commuters was expressed in annual probability of death. Indirect specific loss (US$) derived from the traffic interruption was evaluated considering alternative driving routes, and includes losses resulting from additional fuel consumption, additional travel cost, loss of income to the local business, and loss of revenue to the railway department. The results indicate that the total loss, including both direct and indirect loss, from 1 to 50 years return period, varies from US$ 90 840 to US$ 779 500 and the average annual total loss was estimated as US$ 35 000. The annual probability of a person most at risk travelling in a bus, lorry, car, motorbike and train is less than 10-4/annum in all the time periods considered. The detailed estimation of direct and indirect risk will facilitate developing landslide risk mitigation and management strategies for transportation lines in the study area.

Description: This paper presents an approach for assessing earthquake-triggered landslide susceptibility using artificial neural networks (ANNs). The computational method used for the training process is a back-propagation learning algorithm. It is applied to El Salvador, one of the most seismically active regions in Central America, where the last severe destructive earthquakes occurred on 13 January 2001 (Mw 7.7) and 13 February 2001 (Mw 6.6). The first one triggered more than 600 landslides (including the most tragic, Las Colinas landslide) and killed at least 844 people. The ANN is designed and programmed to develop landslide susceptibility analysis techniques at a regional scale. This approach uses an inventory of landslides and different parameters of slope instability: slope gradient, elevation, aspect, mean annual precipitation, lithology, land use, and terrain roughness. The information obtained from ANN is then used by a Geographic Information System (GIS) to map the landslide susceptibility. In a previous work, a Logistic Regression (LR) was analysed with the same parameters considered in the ANN as independent variables and the occurrence or non-occurrence of landslides as dependent variables. As a result, the logistic approach determined the importance of terrain roughness and soil type as key factors within the model. The results of the landslide susceptibility analysis with ANN are checked using landslide location data. These results show a high concordance between the landslide inventory and the high susceptibility estimated zone. Finally, a comparative analysis of the ANN and LR models are made. The advantages and disadvantages of both approaches are discussed using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves.

Description: Nisyros island in the South Aegean volcanic arc, Greece, is a Quaternary composite volcano with a 3.8 km wide caldera that in 1996 entered a volcano-seismic crisis, which heralded the islands' return to a state of unrest. The caldera has been the locus of at least thirteen phreatic eruptions in historical times, the most recent in 1888, and the system is still presently affected by considerable hydrothermal activity. Although the recent unrest waned off without eruption, there are still open questions relating to the current threat of volcanic activity from the island. Here, we perform a detailed and systematic assessment of the volcanic threat of Nisyros using a threat analysis protocol established as part of the USGS National Volcano Early Warning System (NVEWS). The evaluation involves a methodical assessment of fifteen hazard and exposure factors, and is based on a score system, whereby the higher the score, the higher the threat is. Uncertainty in assessment criteria are expressed by allowing for a conservative and an extreme score for each factor. We draw our analysis from published data as well as from results of our research on Nisyros over the past years. Our analysis yields a conservative threat score of 163 and an extreme score of 262. The most adverse exposure factors include significant scores relating to aviation and population exposure to volcanic hazards from Nisyros. When looked at in comparison to US volcanoes both scores place Nisyros in the "Very High Threat (VHT)" category, grouping it with volcanoes such as Redoubt, Mount Ranier and Crater Lake. We identify a short-fall in recommended surveillance efforts for VHT volcanoes given existing monitoring capabilities on the island. We discuss potential pitfalls of applying the NVEWS scheme to Nisyros and suggest potential adaptation of analysis scheme to match industrial and societal conditions in Europe. At the same time, our findings indicate that that volcanic threat posed by Nisyros volcano may currently be underestimated.

Description: During the floods, the effects of sediment transport in river beds are particulary significant and can be studied through the evolution of the water-sediment layer which moves in the lower part of a flow, named "moving layer". Moving layer variations along rivers lead to depositions and erosions and are typically unsteady, but are often tackled with expressions developed for steady (equilibrium) conditions. In this paper, we develop an expression for the moving layer in unsteady conditions and calibrate it with experimental data. During laboratory tests, we have in fact reproduced a rapidly changing unsteady flow by the erosion of a granular steep slope. Results have shown a clear tendency of the moving layer, for fixed discharges, toward equilibrium conditions. Knowing the equilibrium achievement has presented many difficulties, being influenced by the choice of the equilibrium expression and moreover by the estimation of the parameters involved (for example friction angle). Since we used only data relevant to hyper-concentrated mono-dimensional flows for the calibration – occurring for slope gradients in the range 0.03–0.20 – our model can be applied both on open channels and on embankments/dams, providing that the flows can be modelled as mono-dimensional, and that slopes and applied shear stress levels fall within the considered ranges.

Description: We present an analysis of daily extreme precipitation events for the extended winter season (October–March) at 20 Mediterranean coastal sites covering the period 1950–2006. The heavy tailed behaviour of precipitation extremes and estimated return levels, including associated uncertainties, are derived applying a procedure based on the Generalized Pareto Distribution, in combination with recently developed methods. Precipitation extremes have an important contribution to make seasonal totals (approximately 60% for all series). Three stations (one in the western Mediterranean and the others in the eastern basin) have a 5-year return level above 100 mm, while the lowest value (estimated for two Italian series) is equal to 58 mm. As for the 50-year return level, an Italian station (Genoa) has the highest value of 264 mm, while the other values range from 82 to 200 mm. Furthermore, six series (from stations located in France, Italy, Greece, and Cyprus) show a significant negative tendency in the probability of observing an extreme event. The relationship between extreme precipitation events and the large scale atmospheric circulation at the upper, mid and low troposphere is investigated by using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. A 2-step classification procedure identifies three significant anomaly patterns both for the western-central and eastern part of the Mediterranean basin. In the western Mediterranean, the anomalous southwesterly surface to mid-tropospheric flow is connected with enhanced moisture transport from the Atlantic. During ≥5-year return level events, the subtropical jet stream axis is aligned with the African coastline and interacts with the eddy-driven jet stream. This is connected with enhanced large scale ascending motions, instability and leads to the development of severe precipitation events. For the eastern Mediterranean extreme precipitation events, the identified anomaly patterns suggest warm air advection connected with anomalous ascent motions and an increase of the low- to mid-tropospheric moisture. Furthermore, the jet stream position (during ≥5-year return level events) supports the eastern basin being in a divergence area, where ascent motions are favoured. Our results contribute to an improved understanding of daily precipitation extremes in the cold season and associated large scale atmospheric features.

Description: It has been suggested that 3 to 5% of total lung cancer deaths in the UK may be associated with elevated radon concentration. Radon gas levels can be assessed using CR-39 plastic detectors which are often assessed by 2-D image analysis of surface images. 3-D analysis has the potential to provide information relating to the angle at which alpha particles impinge on the detector. In this study we used a "LEXT" OLS3100 confocal laser scanning microscope (Olympus Corporation, Tokyo, Japan) to image tracks on five CR-39 detectors. We were able to identify several patterns of single and coalescing tracks from 3-D visualisation. Thus this method may provide a means of detailed 3-D analysis of Solid State Nuclear Track Detectors.

Description: Dams located near urban areas have a high risk potential for life and property in downstream. Turkey is one of the most seismically active regions in the world and has at least 1200 large dams with different type. Major earthquakes with the potential of threatening life and property occur frequently here. Kizilirmak basin studied in this article is located in a seismically very active part of Turkey. The northern part of basin is structurally cut by a significant fault system. The shear zone, which is frequently jointed, fractured and faulted at the central part of basin increases total risk of dams within the zone. Consequently, there are so many large dams, which are located close to these faults in the basin. In this paper authors summarize the methods used for the analysis of total risk, discuss the seismic hazards of 36 large dams constructed in the Kizilirmak basin on the basis of the seismic activity of the dam site and their total risk as based on physical properties and the position in the basin. The seismic hazard analyses have indicated that peak ground acceleration changes within a wide range (0.09 g and 0.45 g) for the dam sites of basin. The total risk analyses depending on the seismic hazard rating of dam site and risk rating of the structure have concluded that 23 large dams have high-risk class in the basin.

Description: A seven-month collection of testimonials about the 6 April 2009 earthquake in Aquila, Abruzzo region, Italy, was compiled into a catalogue of non-seismic phenomena. Luminous phenomena were often reported starting about nine months before the strong shock and continued until about five months after the shock. A summary and list of the characteristics of these sightings was made according to 20th century classifications and a comparison was made with the Galli outcomes. These sightings were distributed over a large area around the city of Aquila, with a major extension to the north, up to 50 km. Various earthquake lights were correlated with several landscape characteristics and the source and dynamic of the earthquake. Some preliminary considerations on the location of the sightings suggest a correlation between electrical discharges and asperities, while flames were mostly seen along the Aterno Valley.

Description: Fire is a critical disturbance in the structuring and functioning of most Mediterranean ecosystems. In northwestern Patagonia, vegetation patterns are strongly influenced by fire and environmental heterogeneity. Dendroecology, together with satellite imagery and GIS, have been demonstrated to be useful tools in studies that relate to fire effects with patches, patterns and species dynamics at landscape scale. Such studies can be approached from landscape ecology, which has evolved in the last years supported by the development of remote sensing and GIS technologies. This study evaluates the spatial dynamic of F. imbricata in response to fire using remote sensing, GIS and dendrochronology techniques, at landscape scale. Two sites were evaluated and one of them was affected by fire in the year 1999. The digital processing images (using the NBR spectral index) and the dendroecological analysis verified this. A fire, occurring in 1978, was also detected by the analysis of F. imbricata growth rings. The relation between F. imbricata shrubland dynamics and spatial configuration with fire, land topography and hydrography was established in the study area.

Description: A landslide dam typically comprises freshly deposited heterogeneous, unconsolidated or poorly consolidated earth materials and is vulnerable to overtopping breaching. A physically-based breach model is presented to simulate the breaching process of such landslide dams. The new model can predict the breach evolution, the erosion rate, and the outflow hydrograph. A spreadsheet is developed to numerically implement the model. The erosion processes of Tangjiashan Landslide Dam and Xiaogangjian Landslide Dam induced by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake are analyzed using the new model. The erodibility of the two landslide dams varies significantly along depth. The predicted key breaching parameters (i.e., final breach size, failure time, and peak outflow rate) considering the variations in the soil erodibility along depth agree well with the observed values. Further sensitivity analysis indicates that the soil erodibility affects the breaching process of a landslide dam significantly. Higher soil erodibility will lead to a larger breach, a shorter failure time and a larger peak outflow rate. The erosion rate of the breach channel in the depth direction decreases with increasing erosion resistance of the landslide deposits. In the two case studies, the key breaching parameters cannot be properly predicted if constant soil erodibility parameters along depth are assumed.

Description: Frequency and intensity of gust wind speeds associated with severe mid-latitude winter storms are estimated by applying extreme value statistics to data sets from regional climate models (RCM). Maximum wind speeds related to probability are calculated with the classical peaks over threshold method, where a statistical distribution function is fitted to the reduced sample describing the tail of the distribution function. From different sensitivity studies it is found that the Generalized Pareto Distribution in combination with a Maximum-Likelihood estimator provide the most reliable and robust results. For a reference period from 1971 to 2000, the ability of the RCMs to realistically simulate extreme wind speeds is investigated. For this purpose, data from three RCM scenarios, including the REMO-UBA simulations at 10 km resolution and the so-called consortial runs performed with the CCLM at 18 km resolution (two runs), are evaluated with observations and a pre-existing storm hazard map for Germany. It is found that all RCMs tend to underestimate the magnitude of the gusts in a range between 10 and 30% for a 10-year return period. Averaged over the investigation area, the underestimation is higher for CCLM compared to REMO. The spatial distribution of the gusts, on the other hand, is well reproduced, in particular by REMO.

Description: The Ravne tectonic fault in north-west (NW) Slovenia is one of the faults in this region, responsible for the elevated seismic activity at the Italian-Slovene border. Five measurement profiles were fixed in the vicinity of the Ravne fault, four of them were perpendicular and one parallel to the fault. At 18 points along these profiles the following measurements have been carried out: radon activity concentration in soil gas, radon exhalation rate from ground, soil permeability and gamma dose rate. The radon measurements were carried out using the AlphaGuard equipment, and GammaTracer was applied for gamma dose rate measurements. The ranges of the obtained results are as follows: 0.9–32.9 kBq m−3 for radon concentration (CRn), 1.1–41.9 mBq m−2 s−1 for radon exhalation rate (ERn), 0.5–7.4×10-13 m2 for soil permeability, and 86–138 nSv h−1 for gamma dose rate. The concentrations of 222Rn in soil gas were found to be lower than the average for Slovenia. Because the deformation zones differ not only in the direction perpendicular to the fault but also along it, the behaviour of either CRn or ERn at different profiles differ markedly. The study is planned to be continued with measurements being carried out at a number of additional points.

Description: Within the German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System project GITEWS (Rudloff et al., 2009), a feasibility study on a future tsunami detection system from space has been carried out. The Global Navigation Satellite System Reflectometry (GNSS-R) is an innovative way of using reflected GNSS signals for remote sensing, e.g. sea surface altimetry. In contrast to conventional satellite radar altimetry, multiple height measurements within a wide field of view can be made simultaneously. With a dedicated Low Earth Orbit (LEO) constellation of satellites equipped with GNSS-R, densely spaced sea surface height measurements could be established to detect tsunamis. This simulation study compares the Walker and the meshed comb constellation with respect to their global reflection point distribution. The detection performance of various LEO constellation scenarios with GPS, GLONASS and Galileo as signal sources is investigated. The study concentrates on the detection performance for six historic tsunami events in the Indian Ocean generated by earthquakes of different magnitudes, as well as on different constellation types and orbit parameters. The GNSS-R carrier phase is compared with the PARIS or code altimetry approach. The study shows that Walker constellations have a much better reflection point distribution compared to the meshed comb constellation. Considering simulation assumptions and assuming technical feasibility it can be demonstrated that strong tsunamis with magnitudes (M) ≥8.5 can be detected with certainty from any orbit altitude within 15–25 min by a 48/8 or 81/9 Walker constellation if tsunami waves of 20 cm or higher can be detected by space-borne GNSS-R. The carrier phase approach outperforms the PARIS altimetry approach especially at low orbit altitudes and for a low number of LEO satellites.

Description: The German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) is built upon a complex sensor data infrastructure. To best fulfill the demand for a long living system, the underlying software and hardware architecture of GITEWS must be prepared for future modifications both of single sensors and entire sensors systems. The foundation for a flexible integration and for stable interfaces is a result of following the paradigm of a Service Oriented Architecture (SOA). The Tsunami Service Bus (TSB) – our integration platform in GITEWS – realizes this SOA approach by implementing the Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) standards and services. This paper focuses on architectural and implementation aspects of the TSB. Initially, the general architectural approach in GITEWS by SOA and SWE is presented. Based on this conception, the concrete system architecture of GITEWS is introduced. The sensor integration platform TSB is then discussed in detail, following by its primary responsibilities and components. Special emphasis is laid on architectural transparency, comprehensible design decisions, and references to the applied technology.

Description: Karymskoye caldera lake is a nearly circular body of water with a diameter of approximately 4 km and a depth of up to 60 m. The sublacustrine, Surtseyan-type eruption in the lake on 2–3 January 1996 included a series of underwater explosions. A field survey conducted the following summer showed signs of tsunami wave runup around the entire coastline of the lake, with a maximum of 29 m runup at the north shore near the source of the eruption, and 2–5 m runup at locations on the east and south shore far away from the source. The tsunami has been simulated using the numerical long wave model COULWAVE, with input from reconstructed realistic pre-eruption bathymetry. The tsunami source was chosen as suggested by Le Mehaute (1971) and Mirchina and Pelinovsky (1988). The initial wave was prescribed by a parabolic shape depression with a radius of R=200 m, and a height of 23 m at the rim of the parabola. Simulations were conducted to show principle directions for wave propagation, wave speed and arrival time for the leading wave group at the shore, and the distribution of wave height throughout the lake. Estimated result for wave runup are of the same order of magnitude as field measurements, except near the source of the eruption and at a few locations where analysis show significant wave breaking.

Description: A numerical model of the wave dynamics in Passage Canal, Alaska during the Mw 9.2 megathrust earthquake is presented. During the earthquake, several types of waves were identified at the city of Whittier, located at the head of Passage Canal. The first wave is thought to have been a seiche, while the other two waves were probably triggered by submarine landslides. We model the seiche wave, landslide-generated tsunami, and tectonic tsunami in Passage Canal and compute inundation by each type of wave during the 1964 event. Modeled results are compared with eyewitness reports and an observed inundation line. Results of the numerical experiments let us identify where the submarine landslides might have occurred during the 1964 event. We identify regions at the head and along the northern shore of Passage Canal, where landslides triggered a wave that caused most of the damage in Whittier. An explanation of the fact that the 1964 tectonic tsunami in Whittier was unnoticed is presented as well. The simulated inundation by the seiche, landslide-generated tsunami, and tectonic tsunami can help to mitigate tsunami hazards and prepare Whittier for a potential tsunami.

Description: The high-impact precipitation events that regularly affect the western Mediterranean coastal regions are still difficult to predict with the current prediction systems. Bearing this in mind, this paper focuses on the superensemble technique applied to the precipitation field. Encouraged by the skill shown by a previous multiphysics ensemble prediction system applied to western Mediterranean precipitation events, the superensemble is fed with this ensemble. The training phase of the superensemble contributes to the actual forecast with weights obtained by comparing the past performance of the ensemble members and the corresponding observed states. The non-hydrostatic MM5 mesoscale model is used to run the multiphysics ensemble. Simulations are performed with a 22.5 km resolution domain (Domain 1 in http://mm5forecasts.uib.es) nested in the ECMWF forecast fields. The period between September and December 2001 is used to train the superensemble and a collection of 19~MEDEX cyclones is used to test it. The verification procedure involves testing the superensemble performance and comparing it with that of the poor-man and bias-corrected ensemble mean and the multiphysic EPS control member. The results emphasize the need of a well-behaved training phase to obtain good results with the superensemble technique. A strategy to obtain this improved training phase is already outlined.

Description: The Santa Tecla flash flood, a very heavy event occurred in western Catalonia (NE Spain) in 1874, was reconstructed with hydraulic and hydrological modelling tools in three basins. The hydrograph obtained in a first step and the basin soil moisture information ultimately allowed the estimation of the range of the rainstorm magnitude which caused the flash flood. The reconstruction of historical floods has proved useful to improve the flood probability analysis, especially in ungauged basins.