ALBERT

Beschreibung: This report presents the results of the third and the last workshop in the series “Yamal 2040” organised within Blue-Action work package WP5 “Delivering and valuing climate and information services”. The Blue-Action team at the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS) in cooperation with the Primakov National Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Science (IMEMO) and Foresight Intelligence, and with inputs provided by the National Oceanographic Center (UKRI-NOC) and the M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP-RAS) in the Blue-Action work package WP2 “Lower latitude drivers of Arctic changes” developed forward-looking scenarios to better understand the risks and opportunities associated with multiple developments in the Arctic and help stakeholders to adapt to them. This case study looks at a specific region, the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug in Arctic Russia (YNAO or Yamal region), a region with substantial ongoing and planned petroleum and shipping activities. Together with stakeholder groups, the team has co-developed a suite of scenarios to describe possible futures for this region in 2040 by incorporating cutting edge climate predictions with environmental, social and cultural concerns, economic opportunities, and political and legal developments. The scenarios are the outcome of a truly co-design and co-development process involving partners, stakeholders and using various foresight methods tailored to the project’s needs. These methods allow to constructively deal with cognitive biases, thus enabling participants to think out of the box when planning the future. This approach is very helpful in tackling complex issues linked to numerous interacting uncertainties.

Beschreibung: Following more than a decade of informal deliberations, States at the United Nations (UN)are currently negotiating an “international legally binding instrument for the conservation and sustainable use of marine biodiversity in areas beyond national jurisdiction” (“BBNJ Agreement”). The negotiations aim to strengthen the international legal framework for the protection and management of the global ocean by addressing gaps in the current framework and building on existing obligations under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) to cooperate to protect and preserve the marine environment and conserve marine living resources. This policy brief explores how integrated ecosystem-based management (EBM) in marine areas beyond national jurisdiction (ABNJ) can be advanced at the regional level and how the BBNJ Agreement can build on experiences in other legally binding agreements to strengthen regional cooperation, coordination and coherence. To this end, five building blocks are identified: 1. A robust global body such as a Conference of Parties capable of taking decisions and adopting recommendations; 2. A suite of regional mechanisms for integrated policy development and coordination; 3. Effective science-policy advisory mechanisms; 4. Overarching environmental obligations and principles; and 5. Operational principles to ensure good governance. A review of the current President’s draft text of the BBNJ Agreement highlights where the text could be strengthened to advance EBM. In particular, the BBNJ Agreement could draw inspiration from a range of existing instruments and craft specific obligations to: cooperate to promote in-situ conservation of ecosystems and natural habitats; mainstream biodiversity into all decision-making bodies and processes; and strengthen regional cooperation by supporting existing institutions and by building cross-sectoral platforms for cooperation.

Beschreibung: The overall aim of WP2 is to understand both the actual and possible application of the precautionary principle in eight different cases, and explain potential commonalities and differences in the application of the precautionary principle in the cases. This analysis should reflect the particular context of the case and reveal the arguments that have been used for invoking the precautionary principle and/or adopting precautionary measures (even without mentioning the precautionary principle). The multiple case study component of the RECIPES project is one of the key analytical phases of the project. Within the scope of the entire RECIPES project, WP2 builds on aspects of WP1, in particular the final WP1 report taking stock of the precautionary principle since 2000. The outputs of WP2 will feed directly into WP3, with the aim of the development of new tools and approaches to the PP in a co-creation approach. This document is intended for the individual case study analysis, and does not directly inform the cross-case comparison analysis which will take place in task 2.4.

Beschreibung: The IASS – and the research project Co-creation and Contemporary Policy Advice, in particular – aim to support policymakers in their efforts to address complex societal challenges within the context of a broad transformation towards sustainability. These challenges are interwoven with other issues and embedded within dynamic contexts that are characterized by a high degree of uncertainty, making it difficult to develop a unified approach to their resolution. In response to this, this IASS Discussion Paper presents a model for the development of co-creative policy advice that is intended to support actors from policymaking and public administration in addressing such complex challenges. The primary goal of the process outlined here is the development, in cooperation with relevant stakeholders, of an in-depth understanding of a specific challenge – before appropriate strategies and measures for its resolution are put in place. The insights gained in this scoping process shape the development of tailored solution generation processes and the allocation of public procurement contracts for the implementation of societal transformation processes. In this approach, the policy advice process begins well before potential solutions are developed and presented to policymakers and administrative bodies. Rather, this model responds to the need to develop an integrated understanding of societal challenges in close cooperation with the people and institutions affected on the ground before public procurement processes for their resolution are launched.

Beschreibung: South Africa is in the midst of an energy transition, with important social and economic implications, depending on the pathway that is chosen. Economic prosperity, new sources of income for citizens and households, business and employment opportunities as well as health impacts: through its energy pathway, South Africa will define the basis for its future development.

Beschreibung: This guide for action can be used by policymakers at any level or in any form of government to identify how to redesign governance processes to respond to the Fridays for Future Movement in a way that is meaningful and impactful.

Beschreibung: This guide for action can be used by decision-makers at any level or in any form of organisation or business to identify how to respond to the Fridays for Future Movement in a way that is meaningful, responsive and impactful.

Beschreibung: In a decarbonised future electricity system, Europe will rely on fluctuating renewable sources, such as solar PV and wind power, to a much larger extent than today. This means that Europe as a whole and each individual country on the continent must increase the availability of flexibilityoptionsin order to balance the grid. Such flexibility options include dispatchable renewable sources (e.g. concentrating solar power (CSP)with thermal storage), electricity storage, anddemand-response. We start from the notion that the future does not happen, but it is madeby a series of policy decisions between now and then. If this is true, then the electricity system of 2050 is determined by the sum of all policy decisions affecting the power system – the policy pathway – in all legislations in Europeuntil 2050. In this report, we take the first steps towards identifying the potential future role for dispatchable renewables – specifically CSP with thermal storage – as a function of policy decisions that either increase the need for power system flexibility (e.g. fluctuating renewables) or provide flexibility (e.g. storage, dispatchable renewables, flexible demand). We draw on the energy transition logics framework developed by Foxon and colleagues. This framework poses that the space of possible energy transition pathways is a triangle with three distinct policy logicsin its corners: a state-centred logic, in which the central government leads or carries out the transition; a market-centred logic, in which the government sets the framework but leaves all other decisions to market actors; and a grassroots-centred logic, in which the transition is carried out locally with the resources available to each community. Any transition strategy will consist, in some constellation, of policies from these corner. We investigate policy strategies in France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Switzerland and of the European Union as a whole. For each case, we define one dominant pathway, consisting of currently valid, implemented policies of the current (or newly resigned) government. In addition, we identify up to three minority pathwaysfor each case, describing the energy policy visions and strategies of parties that are currently in opposition but could form a government in the future. For each case, we identify pathways representing each of the three logics, bothin narrative formand as a set of 41 quantitative variables affecting the need for and provision of power system flexibility. This report is a primary data source for the power system modelling in the MUSTEC project. This modelling will happen in 2019 and 2020, and will bring detailed, quantitiave insights of how the potential role for dispatchable renewables is affected by energy policy decisions. However,from the data we have derivedhere, we can draw a number of conclusions. We show that all countries and the EU as a whole seek to strongly decarbonise their power systems, as a key part of economy-wide decarbonisation efforts. Some countries have plans that would suffice to fulfil the European (Union and national) commitments under the Paris Agreement: net-zero emissions, mainly or exclusively based on renewables. We also show that all countries seek to vastly expand intermittent renewables, which will trigger a greatly increased need for flexibility. However, this is not reflected in the policies we analysed: no pathway, dominant or minority, is specific on how they want to provide flexibility, especially not at the scale and pace needed. This problem will be exacerbated as the climate targets are tightened and fossil fuels – first coal and lignite (mainly in the 2020s) and later gas power (especially in the 2040s) – are phased out: once this happens, the European power system(s) will lose much of its current flexibility, and unlessother, carbon-free flexibility options are expanded, it will be increasingly difficult to maintain power system stability.

Beschreibung: This document fulfils RECIPES delivery 2.1, the literature research for the multi-case study analysis, and covers the theoretical component of criteria for multi-case study analysis. Those criteria are presented in delivery 2.2 as the comparative multiple-case design, which is the methodological framework developed in task 2.2. Thus deliveries 2.1 and 2.2 are tightly linked, and should be taken together as the overall case study framework for WP2. The comparative multiple-case design contains the practical methodological framework required by each partner to execute the case study analysis for task 2.3. Delivery 2.3 explains the case study selection process which was undertaken to arrive at the eight cases studies to be carried out in WP2.

Beschreibung: The primary aim of the report – Ecological Baselines of the Southeast Atlantic and Southeast Pacific - Status of Marine Biodiversity and Anthropogenic Pressures in Areas Beyond National Jurisdiction – is to provide decision makers with relevant and useful information on the current status of the marine environment in areas beyond national jurisdiction (ABNJ), both in the Southeast Pacific and the Southeast Atlantic, as well as highlight key pressures placed upon it by human activities. Such information is intended to support decision makers with improved understanding of the functioning and importance of ecological features of ABNJ and their contribution to global human wellbeing.

Beschreibung: The 2015 agreement setting forth the UN Agenda 2030 for Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is an important achievement that poses complex and demanding challenges. To adequately address them, judgments must determine contextually and culturally appropriate balances between independently valuable, but often conflicting targets (Singh et al. 2018). Simultaneously, a global coherence across local and regional actions must be ensured, so that local efforts do not destructively interfere with each other, nor overstep limitations in the resources of the planet (Randers et al. 2018). The Global Sustainability Strategy Forum (GSSF) responds to the fact that, after some 40 years sustainability science has produced many insights, but has not really affected our collective behavior with respect to its impact on the environment. Generally, that is deemed to be the result of lack of communication between scientists and the outside world. But might it be that the present practice of science is in itself deficient in producing results that are useful to implement the changes called for? The Forum was established in 2018 with funding from the VW Foundation to identify and address sustainability challenges at the global to regional scales by bringing together, in week-long work-shops, renowned experts in sustainable development and thought leaders in business, government, and civil society from around the world. Under the patronage of Prof. Dr Rita Süssmuth, former President of the German Bundestag, the first Forum was coordinated by Solène Droy with assistance from Paul Skaloud. Moderated by Ilan Chabay (IASS), Sander van der Leeuw (Arizona State University), Ortwin Renn (IASS), 14 panelists convened in Potsdam (Germany) 4-8 March 2019. Eight main lessons emerged from in-depth discussions and reflections towards the end of the forum. They capture some of the main approaches deemed as necessary for science and society to counter patterns and trends of unsustainability and are outlined in this paper. The results were subsequently discussed at the Inland Department of the Office of the German Federal President, addressing fundamental challenges rarely discussed directly at such a high political level. Discussion ranged from tensions between the complexity of the issues and the urgency of the challenges, such as societal acceptance of change, and on the emerging role for compelling plausible visions to inspire and guide sustainability transformation. The expert panel will expand to include decision-makers from business, politics, and civil society to consider strategies for implementation within regional and sectoral contexts. The approach the GSSF develops draws upon indicators and other information to create evidence-informed expert judgments on strategies for implementation of socially just transitions toward sustainable futures at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Of course, the changes required include strengthening and expanding dialogues between scientists, policy makers, business, and civil society; unbiased consideration of diverse sources of knowledge; the substantial refocus of education in an effort to make the central ideas accessible across all ages and segments of society. But that is not enough – the focus of sustainability science itself must be changed to deal with the core issues regarding our current societies’ impact on the environment.

Beschreibung: Arctic stakeholders are faced with uncertainty as to the future development of social, political, economic, and environmental conditions, not least due to the ongoing transformations inflicted by climate change. In Blue-Action, the case study focusing on “Yamal 2040: Scenarios for the Russian Arctic” (CS5) has employed a specific co-design and engagement methodology to support stakeholders of one particular region in the Arctic, the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug (YNAO) in Russia, to respond to this situation of general uncertainty, to develop forward-looking scenarios to better understand the risks and opportunities associated with future transformations in the Arctic. This methodology is the Foresight Exercise. The Foresight Exercise was conducted in the form of a series of three international workshops over 10 months between late 2017 and late 2018. The result thereof were three scenarios for the possible futures of the YNAO, which were co‐designed by stakeholders participating in the workshops and representing environmental NGOs, indigenous peoples’ organisations, business, media, policy‐makers, representatives oflocal communities, and scientists from the natural and social sciences. Results of the workshops were presented in the Blue‐Action deliverables D5.20, D5.21, and D5.22. This present deliverable takes stock of the Foresight Exercise from the perspective of the stakeholder engagement methodology.

Beschreibung: On 27 January 2019, the research group CO2 Utilisation Strategies and Society at the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS) hosted the International Round Table “Contextualising Carbon Dioxide Utilisation – International Policy Perspectives on CCU Technologies”. The Round Table on CO2 Utilisation is a series of events, initiated, organised by and held at the IASS in Pots-dam. First started in 2014, it is now an established series that provides an occasion for the profes-sional community involved with the development of CCU technologies to debate and engage with a broad range of societal stakeholders. Framed by two presentations about the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) and CCU technologies' possible contribution to their delivery, the one-day event consisted of three ses-sions. The sessions were structured according to global regions and focused first on selected coun-tries in Europe (Finland, France, Germany), then on overarching European perspectives and eventu-ally took on a non-European perspective with presentations from China and the United States. Actors in the field of CCU technologies as well as funding agencies and other organisations ascribe the potential to contribute to ecologic, environmental and societal objectives to CCU technologies. Such objectives may be part of the SDGs and other policy targets. Except for further technical de-velopment, the extent of this contribution largely depends on political support with regard to ecolog-ic aspects as well as economic incentives. In order to unfold their full sustainability potential, CCU technologies need a supportive regulatory and policy framework on a European and international level today, and require more tailored support in the future. On either level, specific risks need to be monitored and considered in policy decisions.

Beschreibung: This summary for decision-makers is based on the report ‘Strengthening Regional Ocean Governance for the High Seas: Opportunities and Challenges to Improve the Legal and Institutional Framework of the Southeast Atlantic and Southeast Pacific’. It is targeted towards policy and decision-makers as well as others working on issues of ocean governance, particularly in the Southeast Atlantic and Southeast Pacific regions The report was prepared as part of the Strengthening Regional Ocean Governance for the High Seas (‘STRONG High Seas’) project and builds on previous studies, particularly in relation to the Southeast Pacific. It is intended to provide a review of the relevant governance frameworks currently in place for the management of high seas biodiversity in these regions. The report uses the issues under discussion in the ongoing negotiations for a new legally binding BBNJ agreement under the United Nations, as well as selected Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 14 targets, as a lens through which to assess progress towards conservation and sustainable use.