ALBERT

Description: Striving to mitigate climate change, the European Union has adopted net-zero greenhouse gas emissions as a target for 2050. In this paper, European chemical industry roadmaps from the past six years are assessed and compared to uncover how the industry envisions its role in the transition to net-zero emissions. The roadmaps are assessed in terms of ambition level, technology and feedstock strategies, investment needs and costs, agency and dependency on other actors, as well as timeline and concretion. Although net-zero pathways are often drawn out in the roadmaps, some also choose to emphasize and argue for less ambitious pathways with emission reductions of only 40-60 %. The roadmaps vary widely in terms of the importance they assign to mechanical and chemical recycling, switching to biogenic carbon and carbon dioxide as feedstock, electrification and hydrogen, and carbon capture and storage. A commonality though, is that low-tech or near-term mitigation pathways such as demand reduction, reuse or material efficiency are seldom included. High investment needs are generally highlighted, as well as the need for policy to create enabling conditions, whereas the agency and responsibility of the chemical industry itself is downplayed. Our analysis highlights that the chemical industry does not yet have a strong and shared vision for pathways to net-zero emissions. We conclude that such a future vision would benefit from taking a whole value chain approach including demand-side options and consideration of scope 3 emissions.

Description: A clear understanding of socio-technical interdependencies and a structured vision are prerequisites for fostering and steering a transition to a fully renewables-based energy system. To facilitate such understanding, a phase model for the renewable energy (RE) transition in MENA countries has been developed and applied to the country case of Morocco. It is designed to support the strategy development and governance of the energy transition and to serve as a guide for decision makers. Such a phase model could be shared widely as part of Morocco's engagement in international platforms of multilateral collaboration, such as the Energy Transition Council (chaired by the United Kingdom (UK) and managed by the British Embassy - Rabat). The analysis shows that Morocco has fully embarked on the energy transition. According to the MENA phase model, Morocco can be classified as being in the second phase "System Integration of Renewables". Nevertheless, Morocco plans to considerably increase the use of natural gas in order to back up intermittent solar and wind energy sources. The diversification of energy sources and a diverse portfolio of storage options, including solar thermal power and hydrogen, can foster flexibility options. To this end, a roadmap for power-to-X (PtX) should be considered for a smooth transition of the Moroccan energy supply and demand system. The expansion of local REs can significantly contribute to reducing Morocco's high fossil fuel imports that are causing a high fiscal burden. With this regard, energy security can be strengthened. Next to large-scale deployment, decentralisation of the energy system must be built to encourage an energy transition on all societal levels. The results of the analysis along the transition phase model towards 100% RE are intended to stimulate and support the discussion on Morocco's future energy system by providing an overarching guiding vision for energy transition and the development of appropriate policies.

Description: Green hydrogen and synthetic fuels are increasingly recognized as a key strategic element for the progress of the global energy transition. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, with its large wind and solar potential, is well positioned to generate renewable energy at low cost for the production of green hydrogen and synthetic fuels, and is therefore considered as a potential future producer and exporter. Yet, while solar and wind energy potentials are essential, other factors are expected to play an equally important role for the development of green hydrogen and synthetic fuels (export) sectors. This includes, in particular, adequate industrial capacities and infrastructures. These preconditions vary from country to country, and while they have been often mentioned in the discussion on green hydrogen exports, they have only been examined to a limited extent. This paper employs a case study approach to assess the existing infrastructural and industrial conditions in Jordan, Morocco, and Oman for the development of a green hydrogen and downstream synthetic fuel (export) sector.

Description: Das Bundesministerium für Wissenschaft und Klimaschutz (BMWK) möchte innovationsfreundliche Rahmenbedingungen für Reallabore schaffen. Im Sommer 2023 hat es dazu ein Grünbuch Reallabore veröffentlicht und einen Konsultationsprozess für ein Reallabore-Gesetz eingeleitet. Das Netzwerk Reallabore der Nachhaltigkeit begrüßt die Initiative, sieht aber zugleich erheblichen Gestaltungsbedarf. Die NaWis-Mitglieder unterstützen die hier vorgestellte Position des Netzwerks.

Description: Für die Landesregierung Nordrhein-Westfalen (NRW) ist die industriell genutzte Kohlenstoffabscheidung und -speicherung (engl. industrial carbon capture and storage, kurz iCCS) ein zentraler Baustein für den Übergang zu einer klimaneutralen Industrie bis 2045. Dafür braucht es aber eine breite gesellschaftliche Akzeptanz - zumal Pläne zur CO2-Abscheidung bei Kohlekraftwerken vor über zehn Jahren schon einmal an mangelnder gesellschaftlicher Akzeptanz gescheitert sind. In diesem In Brief haben die Autor*innen die Ergebnisse von zwei durchgeführten Akzeptanzstudien zu iCCS in NRW zusammengefasst und diskutieren, welche Handlungsempfehlungen sich daraus ergeben.

Description: Nordrhein-Westfalen (NRW) ist Heimat energieintensiver Industrien wie der Stahl- und Chemieindustrie. Künftig wird grüner Wasserstoff notwendig sein, damit die Industrie in NRW Klimaneutralität erreichen kann. Die Herausforderungen hierbei sind jedoch vielfältig - auch wenn die Akzeptanz für grünen Wasserstoff sowohl in der Gesellschaft als auch bei unmittelbar beteiligten Akteursgruppen hoch ist. Die Autor*innen fassen in diesem In Brief die Ergebnisse von zwei durchgeführten Akzeptanzstudien zu grünem Wasserstoff in NRW zusammen und diskutieren, welche Handlungsempfehlungen sich daraus ergeben.

Description: Dieses Buch bietet einen Leitfaden für mehr Klimaschutz an Schulen und holt Schulleitungen, Lehrkräfte und Schüler:innen gemeinschaftlich ins Boot - denn Klimaschutz ist eine Gemeinschaftsaufgabe. Mit dem "Whole School Approach" wird die ganzheitliche Umsetzung von Klimaschutzaktivitäten in der Schulentwicklung angestoßen und auf schulischer Ebene ermöglicht und erleichtert. Ziel ist es, Lehrer:innen in ihrer Gestaltungskompetenz für mehr Klimaschutz zu stärken - dies geschieht durch konkrete Vorschläge für die Arbeit mit Schüler:innen im Unterricht. Partizipative Methoden der Beteiligung sollen die Schüler:innen empowern und den Lehrkräften Ideen geben, um die eigene Selbstwirksamkeit, aber auch die der Schüler:innen zu steigern. Die zentrale Kernbotschaft lautet: ein Klimaschutzprojekt an der Schule ist wesentlich für die strukturelle Verankerung von Bildung für nachhaltige Entwicklung im Schulalltag. Der Leitfaden gibt Anregungen für die Unterrichtsgestaltung, Anregungen für die Entwicklung eines Klimaschutzleitbildes, Hinweise für das Gebäudemanagement und Ideen zur Einbindung des schulischen Umfelds.

Description: Innovative Finanzierungskonzepte wie Solar und Spar-Bürgercontracting belegen, dass ein riesiges Einsparpotenzial an Schulen wirtschaftlich erschlossen werden könnte. Doch bislang passiert zu wenig, um dieses auch zu nutzen. ­Das Projekt Schools4Future zeigt, wie Schulen eigenständig eine CO2-Bilanz erstellen können, um nicht nur eigene Klimaschutzmaßnahmen umzusetzen, sondern auch, um der Politik zu zeigen, wo dringender Handlungsbedarf besteht.

Description: Städte und damit auch ihre Straßen wurden in den vergangenen Jahrzehnten stark nach dem Leitbild einer autogerechten Stadt geplant. Heute besteht ein weitgehender Konsens darüber, dass sich Städte bzw. Straßen wandeln müssen, um sich an die Folgen des Klimawandels anzupassen, und dass die Verkehrswende nur mit angepassten städtischen Verkehrsinfrastrukturen, die aktive Mobilitätsformen fördern, gelingen kann. Dennoch kommt es bei konkreten Projekten vor Ort häufig zu gesellschaftlichen und politischen Widerständen. Vor diesem Hintergrund beschreibt dieser Beitrag einen dreistufigen kollaborativen Beteiligungs- und Planungsprozess mit der Zivilgesellschaft, der Stadtverwaltung und der Kommunalpolitik für den Umbau einer Quartiersstraße in Dortmund. Ziel des Prozesses war es, die Zieldimensionen Verkehrswende, Aufenthaltsqualität und Klimaresilienz (blau-grüne Infrastrukturen) integriert zu betrachten, um eine gleichermaßen ambitionierte wie gesellschaftlich tragfähige Planung zu entwickeln. Der Beitrag beschreibt die empirischen Arbeiten und Befunde, stellt dar, wie die Rückmeldungen aus dem Beteiligungs- und Planungsprozess in die Planungsentwürfe integriert wurden, und reflektiert den Einsatz von Visualisierungen und Straßenexperimenten als Instrumente für eine kollaborative Planung.

Description: This paper presents a novel governance concept for sustainable development, introducing the "Safe System Approach" as a transformative model that shifts focus from individual behavioural change to systemic transformation. This approach challenges traditional governance models that emphasize individual responsibility in achieving sustainable development and decarbonization. Instead, it advocates for creating an enabling environment that inherently guides individuals and communities towards sustainable actions. The Safe System Approach is centred on delivering low-carbon services across essential sectors, including electricity, mobility, industry, buildings, human settlements, and agriculture, thereby embedding sustainability as a default choice in societal systems. Drawing parallels with successful models in road safety, the paper explores the potential of this approach in urban development and climate action. It emphasizes the need for a broad coalition and integrated approaches in managing shared resources, highlighting the significance of systemic adjustments over individual behavioral change. By proposing a structure where sustainability is facilitated by the system's design, the paper builds on key concepts from seminal works by scholars like Garrett Hardin, Mancur Olson, Elinor Ostrom, and Ahrend Lijphart. It discusses the challenges and opportunities in creating safe operating spaces for sustainable development, emphasizing the need for multi-actor, multilevel governance systems that can manage shared resources sustainably and are resilient to political volatility. The paper aims to offer a robust, efficient, and inclusive pathway to sustainable development, contributing to the global discourse on environmental and social resilience.

Description: Angesichts von Extremwetterereignissen, Klimaprognosen und Bewegungen wie Fridays for Future lässt sich schwer leugnen, dass ein Teil der Menschheit auf eine Weise lebt, die eine gut bewohnbare Welt höchst unwahrscheinlich macht. Städten wird in dieser Situation eine zentrale Rolle zugeschrieben. Sie können die Welt vor der Erderwärmung retten - oder sie sind die Ersten, die untergehen. Doch was genau wird getan, um Städte in Richtung Nachhaltigkeit zu transformieren? Britta Acksel nimmt Aktionspläne, Klimafestivals, Awards und weitere Transformationsinstrumente in den Blick. Ethnographisch fundiert zeigt sie auf, wie sich die Arbeit mit dieser speziellen Form von Policy-Werkzeugen gestaltet - und welche Bemühungen besonders aussichtsreich erscheinen.

Description: Ways of evaluating the societal impact of real-world labs as a transdisciplinary and transformative research format are under discussion. We present an evaluation approach rooted in structuration theory, with a focus on structure-agency dynamics at the science-society interface. We applied the theory with its four modalities (interpretation schemes, norms, allocative and authoritative resources) to the case of the Mirke neighbourhood in Wuppertal, Germany. Six projects promoted the capacity for co-productive city-making. The effects of the projects were jointly analysed in a co-evaluation process. Previously proposed subcategories of the modalities as an empirical operationalisation were tested and confirmed as being applicable. Five new subcategories were generated. The use of the modalities seems appropriate for co-evaluation processes. The tool is practical, focused on real-world effects, and suitable for transdisciplinary interpretation processes. We encourage further empirical testing of the tool, as well as development of the subcategories.

Description: Real-world laboratories (RwLs) are gaining further traction as a means to achieve systemic impacts towards sustainability transformation. To guide the analysis of intended impacts, we introduce the concept of leverage points, discerning where, how, and to what end RwLs intervene in systems. Building on conceptual reasoning, we further develop our argument by exploring two RwL cases. Examining RwLs through the lens of the leverage points opens the way for a balanced and comprehensive approach to systemic experimentation. We invite RwL researchers and practitioners to further advance RwLs' transformative capacity by targeting the design and emerging direction of a system, contributing to a culture of sustainability.

Description: Für Deutschland und viele Industrieländer weltweit wird der Import von grünem Wasserstoff ein zentraler Baustein auf dem Weg zur Klimaneutralität sein. Dabei muss einerseits gewährleistet sein, dass grüner Wasserstoff auch wirklich "grün" im Sinne von klimaneutral ist. Zugleich gibt es immer mehr Forderungen, dass auch andere Nachhaltigkeitskriterien - soziale, ökonomische und ökologische - bei der Produktion und dem Transport von Wasserstoff eingehalten werden. Der politisch getriebene Aufbau einer globalen Wasserstoffwirtschaft bietet von Anfang an die Möglichkeit, diesen Sektor in Einklang mit den bestehenden politischen Zielen zu bringen. Dazu zählen beispielsweise die Pariser Klimaziele oder die Agenda 2030. Die Industrienation Deutschland, die auch in Zukunft auf Energieimporte angewiesen sein wird, kann hier als führende Industrienation als Vorreiter Einfluss nehmen. Damit kann nicht nur sichergestellt werden, dass der nach Deutschland importierte Wasserstoff "grün und nachhaltig" ist, sondern auch die Nachhaltigkeit des globalen Wasserstoffmarktes insgesamt beeinflusst werden. Diese Kurzstudie untersucht, welche bereits existierenden Politikinstrumente geeignet sind, Nachhaltigkeitskriterien für Wasserstoffimporte zu verankern und im Zusammenspiel den Weg zu einem nachhaltigen globalen Wasserstoffmarkt zu unterstützen. Dabei werden ausschließlich Nachhaltigkeitsziele und -kriterien jenseits der Klimawirkung von Wasserstoff analysiert. Es ist unbestritten, dass das zentrale Ziel der Wasserstoffwirtschaft die Reduktion von Treibhausgasen bis hin zur Klimaneutralität ist, was bereits in einer Vielzahl von Studien und Stellungnahmen diskutiert wurde. Daher wird in dieser Studie von der Klimaneutralität des grünen Wasserstoffs ausgegangen, um den Fokus auf die anderen wesentlichen Nachhaltigkeitsaspekte zu lenken, die für den Import von grünem und nachhaltigen Wasserstoff aus dem Globalen Süden von entscheidender Bedeutung sind.

Description: Die schnelle und umfassende Emissionsminderung in der Energie- und Kreislaufwirtschaft ist der Schlüssel für die Begrenzung der Erderwärmung auf unter 2 °C. In Deutschland werden entsprechende Politiken seit den 1990er-Jahren verfolgt, allerdings erst in jüngster Vergangenheit mit dem notwendigen Nachdruck und der notwendigen Orientierung hin zu mehr Marktmechanismen. Wesentliche Handlungsfelder sind Energieeinsparung und erhöhte Energieeffizienz, Umstieg auf erneuerbare Energien, Bepreisung von Klimagasen sowie eine Reduzierung und Schließung der Stoffkreisläufe. In allen Handlungsfeldern sind Grundlagen geschaffen, es bleibt jedoch der Großteil des Weges noch zu gehen, um Klimaneutralität zu erreichen. Für einen schnellen Fortschritt spielen neben der Überwindung der technischen, ökonomischen und organisatorischen Herausforderungen auch Verteilungsfragen und die Einbettung in internationale Maßnahmen eine zunehmende Rolle.

Description: In order to limit global warming and fulfill their contributions to the Paris agreement, both Germany and Japan have set targets for climate neutrality towards the middle of the century. Reaching these goals will imply transformation of all sectors of society to avoid all fossil greenhouse gas emissions, heavy industry not the least. The focus of this study is the transformation of the petrochemical industry. This sector can become climate neutral but cannot be "decarbonized", as carbon is integral to the chemical structures of the products like polymers and solvents. Reaching climate neutrality thus means that the whole lifecycle of the petrochemical products has to be regarded. Another specific challenge is today's synergetic relation of this industry to fossil transport fuel production, which cannot be maintained in a climate neutral world. The two countries interestingly share a similar industrial structure overall, and the chemical and petrochemical industry is one of the major industries in both countries. The countries' respective chemical industries are the third and fourth largest in the world in terms of sales, but at the same time, these industries represent just over 5% of the respective countries' greenhouse gas emissions. However, these scope 1 emissions of the chemical industry itself are far less relevant than the end-of-life emissions of their products, which belong to scope 3 and are thus not counted under the chemical industry in the country greenhouse gas balances. To mediate these emissions, there is a need to set the direction, draw out paths and investigate possible alternatives for how the petrochemical industry can be become climate neutral. In this report, the existing scenario analyses, energy strategies and roadmaps dealing with this issue in the two countries are compared, as well as the current state of their petrochemical industries. We highlight similarities, differences and identify possible areas of cooperation and exchange in order to find robust paths forward for the transformation of the petrochemical industries.

Description: Vor dem Hintergrund einer kontinuierlich zunehmenden Pro-Kopf-Wohnfläche und den damit verbundenen negativen Auswirkungen auf Klima und Umwelt sollen mit dieser Arbeit die Bundesförderprogramme auf deren Anreizwirkung bezüglich eines achtsamen Umgangs mit der Ressource Wohnfläche überprüft werden. Der Fokus dieser Arbeit liegt auf den durch die Förderbank KfW durchgeführten Bundesförderprogrammen, die ein wichtiges Instrument der Nachhaltigkeitsstrategie des Bundes im Bereich Wohngebäude bilden. Mithilfe eines Screenings der aktuellen Förderprogramme der KfW sowie durch Gespräche mit Vertretenden der KfW soll kritisch beleuchtet werden, wie sich die derzeit verfolgten Leitbilder der Förderung im Wohngebäudebereich zu dem Leitbild einer achtsamen Wohnflächennutzung verhalten. Zudem sollen mögliche Anknüpfungspunkte für Suffizienzstrategien im Handlungsfeld Wohnfläche identifiziert und in den Kontext des aktuellen Sach- und Forschungsstands gestellt werden. Auf Grundlage der gewonnenen Erkenntnisse soll gezeigt werden, wie Suffizienzstrategien im Handlungsfeld Wohnfläche anhand innovativen Modellvorhaben erprobt werden können, um daraus Erkenntnisse für die Bundesförderung abzuleiten.

Description: The co-operation between municipalities and civil society actors and their independent impulses for urban development are discussed under the terms of co-production and city-making. This article summarises these activities as co-productive city-making (koSM). Forms of as well as advantages and disadvantages of koSM have been discussed in research and practice so far, but analyses of the longitudinal genesis of these activities and their significance for the development of a specific area are rare. This article uses the longitudinally collected, mixed-method data of a constellation analysis of the development of the Mirke neighbourhood in Wuppertal/Germany. Based on four points in time, the dynamics as well as the spatial development of the koSM can be presented - individually and in comparison to other developments. It can be seen that the koSM in the Mirke has grown at an above-average and dynamic rate and can accordingly be interpreted as a motor of neighbourhood development. Main actors and locations are identified. The study is the basis for a follow-up work analysing the reasons and structural effects of the koSM. The koSM is discussed both in its interrelations with municipal action and in its significance for integrated and sustainable urban development. The method of constellation analysis is critically discussed with regard to the relationship between effort and benefit.

Description: Real-world labs are witnessing continued growth and institutionalization in the field of transformation-oriented sustainability research, as well as in adjacent disciplines. With their experimental research agendas, these labs aim at sustainability transformations, however, there is still a need to improve the understanding of their impacts. Drawing from this Special Issue's contributions, we offer a broad overview of the impacts achieved by various real-world labs, highlight the diverse areas and forms of impact, and elucidate strategies as well as mechanisms for achieving impact. We present methodological advances, and address common challenges along with potential solutions for understanding and realizing impact.

Description: The establishment of the Leveraging a Climate-neutral Society–strategic Research Network (LCS–RNet) (then named the International Research Network for Low Carbon Societies) was proposed at the Group of Eight (G8) Environment Ministers’ Meeting in 2008. Its 12th annual meeting in December 2021 focused on the discussion on how to transition into a just and sustainable society and how to reduce the risks associated with the transition. This requires comprehensive studies including on the concept of transition, pathways to net-zero societies and how to realise the pathways by collaborating with various stakeholders. This Special Feature provides new insights into sustainability science by linking the scientific knowledge with practical science for the transition through the exploration of studies presented at the annual meeting. Following the opening paper, "A challenge for sustainability science: can we halt climate change?", a wide range of topics were discussed, including practices for sustainable transformation in the Erasmus University, practices in industry, energy transition and international cooperation.

Description: Deutschlands Haushalte werden, zu Beheizungszwecken, zu 70 % leitungsgebunden versorgt: 50 % mit Erdgas und 14 % mit Fernwärme; 5 % mit Elektrizität, davon je die Hälfte noch mit Nachtspeicherheizung, die andere Hälfte mit Wärmepumpen. So war es 2021. So wird es in Zukunft nicht sein, denn Erdgas ist ein Energieträger fossiler Herkunft. Dessen Nutzung geht in den nächsten beiden Jahrzehnten gen Null. Die Frage ist, was das für die Erdgasleitungen in Deutschland bedeutet.

Description: The petrochemical industry is among the most relevant sectors from an economic, energetic and climate policy perspective. In Western Europe, production occurs in local chemical parks that form strongly connected and densely integrated regional clusters. This paper analyzes the structural characteristics of the petrochemical system in Germany and investigates three particularly distinct clusters regarding their challenges and chances for a transition towards climate-neutrality. For this, feedstock and energy supply, product portfolios and process integration as well as existing transformation activities are examined. We find that depending on their distinct network characteristics and location, unique and complex strategies are to be mastered for every cluster. Despite the many activities underway, none of them seems to have a strategic network to co-create a tailored defossilization strategy for the cluster - which is the core recommendation of this paper to develop.

Description: Demand-side mitigation strategies have been gaining momentum in climate change mitigation research. Still, the impact of different approaches in passenger transport, one of the largest energy demand sectors, remains unclear. We couple a transport simulation model to an energy system optimisation model, both highly disintegrated in order to compare those impacts. Our scenarios are created for the case of Germany in an interdisciplinary, qualitative-quantitative research design, going beyond techno-economic assumptions, and cover Avoid, Shift, and Improve strategies, as well as their combination. The results show that sufficiency - Avoid and Shift strategies - have the same impact as the improvement of propulsion technologies (i.e. efficiency), which is reduction of generation capacities by one quarter. This lowers energy system transformation cost accordingly, but requires different kinds of investments: Sufficiency measures require public investment for high-quality public services, while efficiency measures require individuals to purchase more expensive vehicles at their own cost. These results raise socio-political questions of system design and well-being. However, all strategies are required to unleash the full potential of climate change mitigation.

Description: This paper examines the current and prospective greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of e-fuels produced via electrolysis and Fischer-Tropsch synthesis (FTS) for the years 2021, 2030, and 2050 for use in Germany. The GHG emissions are determined by a scenario approach as a combination of a literature-based top-down and bottom-up approach. Considered process steps are the provision of feedstocks, electrolysis (via solid oxide co-electrolysis; SOEC), synthesis (via Fischer-Tropsch synthesis; FTS), e-crude refining, eventual transport to, and use in Germany. The results indicate that the current GHG emissions for e-fuel production in the exemplary export countries Saudi Arabia and Chile are above those of conventional fuels. Scenarios for the production in Germany lead to current GHG emissions of 2.78-3.47 kgCO2-eq/L e-fuel in 2021 as the reference year and 0.064-0.082 kgCO2-eq/L e-fuel in 2050. With a share of 58-96%, according to the respective scenario, the electrolysis is the main determinant of the GHG emissions in the production process. The use of additional renewable energy during the production process in combination with direct air capture (DAC) are the main leverages to reduce GHG emissions.

Description: Direct air capture (DAC) combined with subsequent storage (DACCS) is discussed as one promising carbon dioxide removal option. The aim of this paper is to analyse and comparatively classify the resource consumption (land use, renewable energy and water) and costs of possible DAC implementation pathways for Germany. The paths are based on a selected, existing climate neutrality scenario that requires the removal of 20 Mt of carbon dioxide (CO2) per year by DACCS from 2045. The analysis focuses on the so-called "low-temperature" DAC process, which might be more advantageous for Germany than the "high-temperature" one. In four case studies, we examine potential sites in northern, central and southern Germany, thereby using the most suitable renewable energies for electricity and heat generation. We show that the deployment of DAC results in large-scale land use and high energy needs. The land use in the range of 167-353 km2 results mainly from the area required for renewable energy generation. The total electrical energy demand of 14.4 TWh per year, of which 46% is needed to operate heat pumps to supply the heat demand of the DAC process, corresponds to around 1.4% of Germany's envisaged electricity demand in 2045. 20 Mt of water are provided yearly, corresponding to 40% of the city of Cologne's water demand (1.1 million inhabitants). The capture of CO2 (DAC) incurs levelised costs of 125-138 EUR per tonne of CO2, whereby the provision of the required energy via photovoltaics in southern Germany represents the lowest value of the four case studies. This does not include the costs associated with balancing its volatility. Taking into account transporting the CO2 via pipeline to the port of Wilhelmshaven, followed by transporting and sequestering the CO2 in geological storage sites in the Norwegian North Sea (DACCS), the levelised costs increase to 161-176 EUR/tCO2. Due to the longer transport distances from southern and central Germany, a northern German site using wind turbines would be the most favourable.

Description: In light of Egypt's transition to a green economy, this report focuses on reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and increasing resource efficiency along three different value chains in which small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) play a crucial role. In order to support SMEs in Egypt to take advantage of implementing greening options along value chains, more detailed analyses are needed. Therefore, the aim of this study is to analyse three selected supply chains to identify greening opportunities for SMEs. Against this background, the project report is structured as follows: Chapter 2 introduces the background with an overview over the concept of green economy followed by Egypt's economy and its green economy. This is followed by a presentation of the value chains and an overview of the respective sectors. Chapter 3 describes the research approach, methods and data collection. The following chapters examine the three selected value chains cotton, sugar beet and refrigerators, including environmental hot spots, greening options as well as the experts' evaluation of those greening options. The report concludes with key recommendations in Chapter 7.

Description: As society's reliance on software systems escalates over time, so too does the cost of failure of these systems. Meanwhile, the complexity of software systems, as well as of their designs, is also ever-increasing, influenced by the proliferation of new tools and technologies to address intended societal needs. The traditional response to this complexity in software engineering and software architecture has been to apply rationalistic approaches to software design through methods and tools for capturing design rationale and evaluating various design options against a set of criteria. However, research from other fields demonstrates that intuition may also hold benefits for making complex design decisions. All humans, including software designers, use intuition and rationality in varying combinations. The aim of this article is to provide a comprehensive overview of what is known and unknown from existing research regarding the use and performance consequences of using intuition and rationality in software design decision-making. To this end, a systematic literature review has been conducted, with an initial sample of 3909 unique publications and a final sample of 26 primary studies. We present an overview of existing research, based on the literature concerning intuition and rationality use in software design decision-making and propose a research agenda with 14 questions that should encourage researchers to fill identified research gaps. This research agenda emphasizes what should be investigated to be able to develop support for the application of the two cognitive processes in software design decision-making.

Description: The steel industry is responsible for eight per cent of global CO2 emissions. As more than seven out of ten of today's coal-fired blast furnaces are due to be refurbished or replaced in the 2020s, there is a key window of opportunity to shift to low-emission production methods before the end of this decade. The analysis by Agora Industry, Wuppertal Institute and Lund University assesses eight potential breakthrough technologies in terms of their market readiness, cost and impact on emissions. The methods analysed include the use of hydrogen to produce direct reduced iron, scrap-based electric arc furnaces, electrolysis and the implementation of carbon capture in existing coal-fired facilities. While some of these technologies can already be deployed today to kick-start the market for green steel, others will take more time to reach technological maturity, but show promise in the long-term. A third group may never turn into adequate solutions for decarbonising the steel sector. In their analysis, the scientists conclude that scrap and hydrogen-based methods hold the biggest promise for companies aiming to make the switch this decade. By contrast, retrofitting existing coal-based facilities with carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology entails the biggest economic and environmental risk, the authors find. Regardless of the technologies chosen, appropriate regulatory frameworks, international cooperation, and targeted incentives are necessary to boost demand for green steel and promote its production. At the same time, such measures can help steer manufacturers away from costly technological dependencies.

Description: The study analyses strategies and offers recommendations for leveraging the Global Stocktake's (GST) outcomes for national climate action, especially for Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). It emphasizes the need for coordinated efforts to ensure the results of the GST influence national political discourse. It proposes communication strategies tailored to the different stages of the NDC policy process and diverse target audiences. Drawing on a wide range of examples, the paper advocates for a nuanced and strategic approach to communication and emphasizes the importance of legitimacy and complexity in engaging stakeholders at different levels of decision-making.

Description: Education for Sustainable Development requires raising individuals' awareness of problems relevant to the environment. We designed a Generative Toolkit that supports industrial design students carrying out a Speculative Design task and through this process initiates greater problem awareness of low metal recycling rates. In this paper we give insights into the Toolkit's theoretical derivation and the design process. Findings from testing suggest that there are several opportunities for improvement, such as considering further content-related competencies in the Toolkit's design.

Description: The sustainable transformation of society is one of the greatest challenges of our time. Universities are central actors for knowledge generation and transfer in the sustainability field and, at the same time, are facing the question of how they can become sustainable social actors and make their activities and infrastructure sustainable. Against this background, the 16 member universities of the State Rectors' Conference of North Rhine-Westphalia have joined forces in the Humboldtn initiative to pool their efforts in the field of sustainability and to anchor generational responsibility for sustainable action in research, teaching, administration, infrastructure, and transfer. How the joint responsibility for the questions for the future in the aforementioned complex of topics is addressed via Humboldtn and which focal points are set in the process will be presented and discussed using examples from the institutional sustainability transformation and examples from the research area from RWTH Aachen University. In this way, the implementation of transformation processes at universities and their possible blueprint effect can be illuminated.

Description: The global building sector, responsible for over 30% of CO2 emissions, necessitates urgent decarbonization efforts. This paper examines residential building decarbonization policies in three major economies - the European Union (EU), China, and India. It provides an overview of diverse policies through policy landscape analysis and delves into the design specifics with a detailed policy intensity analysis of building energy codes, information disclosure, and financial incentives in each region. Our findings reveal a diverse mix of policies targeting residential building decarbonization in all three regions. While the EU and China have long-established diverse policy instruments, India's building energy efficiency policies are relatively recent and limited. Detailed analyses of building energy codes, information disclosure, and financial incentives expose variations in ambition, scope, and implementation, even with shared policy instruments. Significant advancements in building energy codes, particularly in stringency and compliance checks, are evident in the EU and China. Conversely, India faces a notable obstacle with limited adoption of residential building energy codes, impacting its journey towards net-zero. The EU leads in building energy labelling policies, while China and India encounter various challenges hindering widespread implementation. Financial incentives across the three regions predominantly take the form of subsidies, potentially straining public budgets. The study concludes with reflections on the pressing need for future research extending beyond the operational phase of buildings.

Description: Im Projekt wird ein kreislauffähiges Produktdesign für Kühl-/Gefriergeräte auf Basis von im Labor- und Industriemaßstab ermittelten Daten entwickelt, das gleichermaßen energie- als auch ressourceneffizient ist. Übergreifendes Ziel war die modellhafte Weiterentwicklung eines Konsumgutes, das neben dem bereits bestehenden Fokus auf Energieeffizienz auch das Thema Ressourceneffizienz in den Blick nimmt. In der Konzeptphase wurden dazu verschiedene Ansätze entwickelt und mit einem Bewertungs- und Entscheidungstool ergänzt, das als Standard für weitere Konsumgüter dienen kann. Dabei wurde ein übertragbares Designkonzept zur Kreislaufführung der verwendeten Materialien von Konsumgütern am Beispiel eines Kühl-/Gefriergerät-Prototyps erstellt. Da die dafür erforderlichen Daten in der Literatur sowie über öffentlich zugängliche Datenbanken nicht vorhanden bzw. für Forschungseinrichtungen zugänglich waren, wurden diese über Labor- und Großversuch beim Recycling-Unternehmen Stena (Recular) selbst und damit in jedem Schritt nachvollziehbar erhoben. Auf dieser Grundlage wurden verschiedene Designoptionen, mit dem Fokus auf ein möglichst ressourceneffizientes und reparaturfreundliches Produkt zur Schaffung tatsächlich geschlossener Stoffkreisläufe und von Möglichkeiten für Repair/Reuse sowie neuer Geschäftsmodelle, entwickelt. Die Zusammenführung der Ressourceneffizienzanalyse mit einem multiregional erweiterten Input-Output-Modell wird zukünftig die Abschätzung der Recyclingfähigkeit von Produkten bereits im Designstadium ermöglichen und dadurch ein Design-for-Repair und/oder -Recycling unterstützen.

Description: The steel and chemical production industries are the largest industrial emitters of greenhouse gases in the European Union, together accounting for half of the EU’s industrial greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. A promising strategy for achieving deep GHG emissions reductions is the electrification of these two industries, which would depend on the rapid expansion of renewable electricity supply. Such electrification can be direct, where electrical appliances replace fossil fuel powered ones, or indirect, using renewable hydrogen produced from water by electricity. Both methods of electrification represent a systemic shift for these industrial systems and require a major wave of investment into new process technologies, as well as access to renewable electricity and green hydrogen. Old industrial structures could become stranded as a consequence of shifting energy and feedstock supply in this way. The thesis focuses geographically on the major region for EU steel and chemical production: the area between the two North Sea ports of Antwerp and Rotterdam in the west and the Rhine-Ruhr area in the east. It studies the technical and economic feasibility of electrification in the steel and chemical production industries (specifically petrochemicals), followed by an analysis of the impact on locational factors and possible spatial reconfigurations of the production system. The analysis builds on scenario methodology with extensive stakeholder engagement and uses different quantitative bottom-up models developed during several projects. To accelerate and facilitate the transformation of the two focal industries in the region, the thesis identifies strategic options for policy makers, steel and petrochemical companies, as well as for infrastructure providers such as port authorities and network operators. The results obtained demonstrate the feasibility of electrification and its potential to play a crucial role in the defossilised production of steel and petrochemicals, even in a region with a relatively low renewable electricity potential (such as the one studied). The transformation requires a hydrogen infrastructure for steel and petrochemical clusters and increased circularity, especially in the petrochemical industry. Some production steps in the value chain, such as iron making or chemical feedstock production, will have strong incentives to relocate (either partially or fully). However, other factors, such as the benefits of existing assets and the advantages of vertical integration in existing clusters, may discourage the total relocation of entire production chains.

Description: Energy performance contracting (EPC) as a market instrument has been effective in promoting energy efficiency worldwide, but it has encountered many insurmountable obstacles in rural energy management. In this study, based on the characteristics of energy management in rural areas, three EPC modes are designed and tested in 24,000 rural households. The test results show that two adapted EPC modes of local government involvement and energy payment directly from the national grid can effectively overcome the barriers encountered in the traditional EPC modes and work well under the economic and social environmental conditions in rural areas. The key to the adaptation of the traditional EPC modes is the introduction of the local government as the third party. Participation of the third party can effectively reduce and remove the barriers and risks and increase the mutual trust between the clients (households) and the energy service companies (ESCOs). Based on the testing results, this study suggests that governmental departments should formulate relevant EPC policies and technical guidelines within the rural context. This research recommends that farmers should not manage their energy services by themselves and it is suggested to out-contracting ESCOs by applying the modes developed and tested by this paper.

Description: In Germany, there are over 32,000 schools, representing great potential for climate protection. On the one hand, this applies to educational work, as understanding the effects of climate change and measures to reduce GHG emissions is an important step to empower students with knowledge and skills. On the other hand, school buildings are often in bad condition, energy is wasted, and the possibilities for using renewable energies are hardly used. In our "Schools4Future" project, we enabled students and teachers to draw up their own CO2 balances, identify weaknesses in the building, detect wasted electricity, and determine the potential for using renewable energies. Emissions from the school cafeteria, school trips, and paper consumption could also be identified. The fact that the data can be collected by the students themselves provides increased awareness of the contribution made to the climate balance by the various school areas. The most climate-friendly school emits 297 kg whilst the school with the highest emissions emits over one ton CO2 per student and year. Our approach is suitable to qualify students in the sense of citizen science, carry out a scientific investigation, experience self-efficacy through one's own actions, and engage politically regarding their concerns.

Description: Eine neue digital-ökologische Staatskunst ist die unverzichtbare Voraussetzung für wirksames staatliches Handeln zur sozial-ökologischen Gestaltung der digitalen Transformation. Der Bericht beschreibt am Beispiel der Plattformökonomie die Herausforderungen, Ansatzpunkte und mögliche Maßnahmen.

Description: In the race against time, the European Union must move swiftly to navigate the green transition. This imperative isn't just about staying ahead in the global green technology competition; it is about securing the future of Europe's economy while combating climate change. Ahead of the EU elections looming, the urgency of this dual challenge cannot be overstated. With a new pro-EU Polish government in place, the Weimar Triangle - a trilateral forum that brings together Poland, France and Germany - could provide the ideal place to offer a new bold industrial policy leadership in Europe.

Description: Die Kurzstudie ist eine Entscheidungshilfe, um die potenzielle Einführung eines Reparierbarkeits-Index (R-Score) für Klima- und Einzelraumheizgeräte im Rahmen der Ökodesign-Richtlinie besser bewerten zu können. Das Ziel der Studie ist es, die Relevanz der Reparierbarkeit von diesen Gerätegruppen einschätzen zu können. Für die Ermittlung der Problemrelevanz wurde eine Befragung durchgeführt, sodass Stimmen von herstellenden Firmen und Verbänden, Großhandel, Installateur*innen, Handwerksbetrieben und Reparatureinrichtungen aufgenommen werden konnten. Die Autor*innen sprechen sich grundsätzlich bei beiden Produktgruppen für die Einführung eines Reparierbarkeits-Index aus und weisen darauf hin, dass für diese Produktgruppen die unabhängige Bewertung der Produktlebensdauer ein wichtiger Hebel ist, um die produktbezogenen Umweltauswirkungen zu reduzieren.

Description: The twenty-eighth Conference of the Parties (COP28) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Dubai among many other items concluded the first Global Stocktake (GST) under the Paris Agreement. This article discusses the conference's outcomes in the areas of mitigation, loss and damage, adaptation, climate finance, and cooperation under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. The conference arguably made history by for the first time ever recognising the need to "transition away" from fossil fuels, adopting specific targets for the scale-up of renewable energy and energy efficiency, and by operationalising a fund to support developing countries in dealing with loss and damage caused by climate change. However, the legal language in the call for an energy transition is relatively non-committal and the conference failed to underpin the new global objectives with adequate resources. Actual implementation of the Dubai outcomes will therefore to a large extent depend on whether COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan - already billed as "finance COP" - will be able to cut the Gordian knot of finance.

Description: Aufgrund struktureller Haushaltsprobleme ist in vielen Gebietskörperschaften in den letzten Jahrzehnten im Bereich ihrer Liegenschaften ein immer größer werdender Sanierungsstau entstanden. Das heißt, notwendige Instandsetzungsinvestitionen, Modernisierungen und/oder energetische Sanierungen sind vielerorts unterblieben. Dieses Fachbuch zeigt innovative Lösungen auf.

Description: North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) is the industrial center of Germany and one of the most important industrial locations in Europe. It is a key location for the energy-intensive basic materials industry like the production of steel and non-ferrous metals, (petro)chemicals, cement and lime, bricks, glass and ceramics, and paper. Around 20 % of NRW's total greenhouse emissions derive from industrial processes. By 2045, industry must achieve climate-neutrality, which requires a massive transformation effort. Technologically, this needs large-scale utilization of green hydrogen, carbon management, consequent circular economy, and climate-neutral production of process heat. Furthermore, various adjustments to the policy framework are essential.

Description: Digitalisierung und Nachhaltigkeit sind Megatrends der Gegenwart und der Zukunft. Die Digitalisierung bietet das Potenzial, das Nachhaltigkeitsmanagement von Unternehmen zu unterstützen. Die Nachhaltigkeitsplattform "EcoHub" erlaubt es, Unternehmensdaten mit Bezug zur Nachhaltigkeit an einer zentralen Stelle unter Berücksichtigung von Aspekten der Datensicherheit und Zugriffsberechtigung zu sammeln und als zentrale Datensenke der weiteren Analyse und für die Rückkopplung im Unternehmen zur Verfügung zu stellen.

Description: Over 175 million Nigerians rely on the use of traditional biomass for cooking, and it is estimated that more than 128,000 people died in Nigeria in 2019 from household air pollution related to these fuels. There is currently a gap in the study of possible pathways to meet Nigeria's goals in clean cooking and in understanding the health and climate impacts that different pathways can bring about. We explore clean cooking access scenarios for Nigeria until 2060 under a business-as-usual scenario, a moderate climate mitigation scenario, and an ambitious transformative scenario. We carry out a disaggregation at the state level for the period up to 2030 to better guide shorter-term policy development. Our analysis shows that under an ambitious scenario where 85 million households achieve access to clean cooking by 2060, annual premature deaths due to exposure to household air pollution would decrease by 7 % compared to 2018 levels. A baseline scenario, on the other hand, sees a dramatic 77 % increase, resulting in 209,000 people dying prematurely, of which 94,000 children under 5. Furthermore, we find that woodfuel removals from forestland would lead to a tripling of carbon dioxide emissions from land use change, reaching 602 Mt CO2 by 2060. Our findings stress the vital importance of a clean cooking transition in Nigeria and underline the urgent need for immediate acceleration in national efforts regarding access to clean cooking for all.

Description: Das zentrale Anliegen des Projektes besteht darin, regionale Stoffkreisläufe in der metallverarbeitenden Industrie zu schließen - mit einem Schwerpunkt auf (Hand-) Werkzeuge und Schneidwaren - sowie dies durch den Einsatz digitaler Technologien zu organisieren und zu optimieren. Das Ziel ist, Ressourcen- und Energieverbräuche zu reduzieren sowie ökonomische Vorteile für die Unternehmen zu realisieren. Im Detail soll es darum gehen, verschlissene metallische Produkte am End-of-Life nicht einer Verwertung durch Umschmelzen zuzuführen, sondern durch Remanufacturing und Repurposing die Nutzungsdauer der mit hohem Energie- und Ressourcenaufwand erzeugten Metalle zu verlängern. Diese Ansätze sollen unternehmensübergreifend aufgestellt werden und erfordern eine digital unterstützte Logistikkette sowie eine vollständige Rückverfolgbarkeit. Eine Rückführung verschlissener Maschinenmesser lohnt sich nach derzeitigem Kenntnisstand nicht, wenn dieses Material nur den Schrottpreis aufweist. Im Projekt "Circle of Tools" soll daher ein neues Geschäftsmodell entwickelt werden, das darauf basiert, sortenreine, qualitativ hochwertige Materialien entweder im primären Herstellungsprozess zu nutzen oder zur Weiterverarbeitung in andere Herstellungsprozesse unternehmensübergreifend zu integrieren. Neben den rein technischen Möglichkeiten werden betriebswirtschaftliche Faktoren, das Ressourceneffizienzpotenzial und der rechtliche Rahmen untersucht. Die in der europäischen Abfallrahmenrichtlinie und dem deutschen Kreislaufwirtschaftsgesetz verankerte Abfallhierarchie geht von der grundsätzlichen ökologischen Vorteilhaftigkeit der unterschiedlichen Stufen aus. Während das stoffliche Recycling von Produkten in der Regel vorteilhafter ist als ihre thermische Verwertung oder Deponierung, sind Reuse/Kaskadennutzung demnach ökologisch vorteilhafter als sämtliche Recyclingtechnologien. Die Datenlage ist hier jedoch im Vergleich zu vielen Recyclingtechnologien noch äußerst lückenhaft und unsystematisch. Einzelne Untersuchungen weisen jedoch auf signifikante Ressourceneffizienzpotenziale hin. Abschätzungen zeigen, dass die in diesem Vorhaben angedachte Reuse-/Kaskadennutzung zu einer Einsparung von 300 Tonnen Primär-Werkzeugstahl führen könnte. Das Vorhaben kann diese signifikanten Potenziale nachweisen und gleichzeitig geeignete und übertragbare Geschäftsmodelle aufzeigen. Auf Grundlage der empirischen Erhebungen werden im Projekt genaue Wirkungen berechnet für folgende Fragen: (1) Welche Mengen an Rohstoffe können durch Remanufacturing/Repurposing eingespart werden? (2) Welche ökonomische Wertschöpfung ist damit zu erzielen? (3) Wie ist ein Remanufacturing/Repurposing im Vergleich zu anderen Verwertungsverfahren ökologisch und ökonomisch einzuschätzen?

Description: The goal of this dissertation is to facilitate the assessment of impacts from sustainable measures and projects with an emphasis on impact reporting for Green, Social or Sustainability Bonds in the Sustainable Finance market. It does so by providing analysts with the means to develop, depict, formulate, and assess a causal hypothesis between an intervention and its subsequent effects in an impact-chain, represented by desired environmental (E), social (S) or governance (G) changes. This is achieved by developing a methodology for so-called ESG Logic Models or ESG-LM, that combine heuristic Theories-of-Change with propositional logic and Bayesian Reasoning. Three research questions are investigated and responded to. Research Question 1 asks how such Theories-of-Change can be developed for any type of ESG-related issue and how the different process steps in a causal chain can be classified, hierarchised, and prioritised regarding their efficacy towards overarching sustainability goals and their plausibility. Research Question 2 studies (a) the means by which the analyst or any other interested third party might be warranted in believing the causal claims from an ESG-LM, and (b) how an ESG-LM can be improved if this credence is low. Research Question 3 then looks at the reporting of impacts themselves regarding indicator selection, indicator assessment and indicator quantification as well as the provision of information on the contributions and attributions by different actors. The dissertation draws on a variety of theories and adapts existing methods to achieve that. It operationalises concepts from empirical Sustainable Finance research and already existing impact assessment methodologies. It adapts scholarly and practitioner approaches for theory-based evaluation and applies a qualitative social science perspective towards theory-building and evaluation, while some of the assessment tools in the dissertation are grounded in Logic, Set Theory and Bayesian Epistemology. Examples for such tools include rules for the Attribution by actors, heuristics for the abduction of plausible outcome pathways, or a four-stage Argument and Decision-Tree to assess the credibility of ESG-LM claims (based on Bayes Theorem). My assessment of the entire methodology is positive overall, as it provides solutions to each of the three research areas. Limitations of the approach, and thus opportunities for further research, are the additional expertise and time required by analysts compared to the existing, and somewhat more pragmatic, solutions in the current market. However, this is outweighed in my opinion by the ability of the framework to strongly mitigate impact washing by actors in the financial markets as well as biases by analysts. Its overall methodology also provides opportunities for new research angles in the area of sustainability indicators and assessments.

Description: This article summarizes the ground-motion characterization (GMC) model component of the 2022 New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model (2022 NZ NSHM). The model development process included establishing a NZ-specific context through the creation of a new ground-motion database, and consideration of alternative ground-motion models (GMMs) that have been historically used in NZ or have been recently developed for global application with or without NZ-specific regionalizations. Explicit attention was given to models employing state-of-the-art approaches in terms of their ability to provide robust predictions when extrapolated beyond the predictor variable scenarios that are well constrained by empirical data alone. We adopted a “hybrid” logic tree that combined both a “weightson- models” approach along with backbone models (i.e., metamodels), the former being the conventional approach to GMC logic tree modeling for NSHM applications using published models, and the latter being increasingly used in research literature and site-specific studies. In this vein, two NZ-specific GMMs were developed employing the backbone model construct. All of the adopted subduction GMMs in the logic tree were further modified from their published versions to include the effects of increased attenuation in the back-arc region; and, all but one model was modified to account for the reduction in ground-motion standard deviations as a result of nonlinear surficial site response. As well as being based on theoretical arguments, these adjustments were implemented as a result of hazard sensitivity analyses using models without these effects, which we consider gave unrealistically high hazard estimates.

Description: Seismicity usually exhibits a non-Poisson spatiotemporal distribution and could undergo nonstationary processes. However, the Poisson assumption is still deeply rooted in current probabilistic seismic hazard analysis models, especially when input catalogs must be declustered to obtain a Poisson background rate. In addition, nonstationary behavior and scarce earthquake records in regions of low seismicity can bias hazard estimates that use stationary or spatially precise forecasts. In this work, we implement hazard formulations using forecasts that trade-off spatial precision to account for overdispersion and nonstationarity of seismicity in the form of uniform rate zones (URZs), which describe rate variability using non-Poisson probabilistic distributions of earthquake numbers. The impact of these forecasts in the hazard space is investigated by implementing a negative- binomial formulation in the OpenQuake hazard software suite, which is adopted by the 2022 Aotearoa New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model. For a 10% exceedance probability of peak ground acceleration (PGA) in 50 yr, forecasts that only reduce the spatial precision, that is, stationary Poisson URZ models, cause up to a twofold increase in hazard for low-seismicity regions compared to spatially precise forecasts. Furthermore, the inclusion of non-Poisson temporal processes in URZ models increases the expected PGA by up to three times in low-seismicity regions, whereas the effect on high-seismicity is minimal (∼5%). The hazard estimates presented here highlight the relevance, as well as the feasibility, of incorporating analytical formulations of seismicity that go beyond the inadequate stationary Poisson description of seismicity.

Description: The distribution of earthquakes in time and space is seldom stationary, which could hinder a robust statistical analysis, particularly in low-seismicity regions with limited data. This work investigates the performance of stationary Poisson and spatially precise forecasts, such as smoothed seismicity models (SSMs), in terms of the available training data. Catalog bootstrap experiments are conducted to: (1) identify the number of training data necessary for SSMs to perform spatially better than the least-informative Uniform Rate Zone (URZ) models; and (2) describe the rate temporal variability accounting for the overdispersion and nonstationarity of seismicity. Formally, the strict-stationarity assumption used in traditional forecasts is relaxed into local and incremental stationarity (i.e., a catalog is only stationary in the vicinity of a given time point t) along with self-similar behavior described by a power law. The results reveal rate dispersion up to 10 times higher than predicted by Poisson models and highlight the impact of nonstationarity in assuming a constant mean rate within training-forecast intervals. The temporal rate variability is translated into a reduction of spatial precision by means of URZmodels. First, counting processes are devised to capture rate distributions, considering the rate as a random variable. Second, we devise a data-driven method based on geodetic strain rate to spatially delimit the precision of URZs, assuming that strain/stress rate is related to the timescales of earthquake interactions. Finally, rate distributions are inferred from the available data within each URZ. We provide forecasts for the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model update,which can exhibit rates up to ten times higher in low-seismicity regions compared with SSMs. This study highlights the need to consider nonstationarity in seismicity models and underscores the importance of appropriate statistical descriptions of rate variability in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis.

Description: National-scale seismic hazard models with large logic trees can be difficult to calculate using traditional seismic hazard software. To calculate the complete 2022 revision of the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model—Te Tauira Matapae Pūmate Rū i Aotearoa, including epistemic uncertainty, we have developed a method in which the calculation is broken into two separate stages. This method takes advantage of logic tree structures that comprise multiple, independent logic trees from which complete realizations are formed by combination. In the first stage, we precalculate the independent realizations of the logic trees. In the second stage, we assemble the full ensemble of logic tree realizations by combining components from the first stage. Once all realizations of the full logic tree have been calculated, we can compute aggregate statistics for the model. This method benefits both from the reduction in the amount of computation necessary and its parallelism. In addition to facilitating the computation of a large seismic hazard model, the method described can also be used for sensitivity testing of model components and to speed up experimentation with logic tree structure and weights.

Description: Central America is a seismically active region where six tectonic plates (North America, Caribbean, Cocos, Nazca, Panama, and South America) interact in a subduction zone with transform faults and two triple points. This complex tectonic setting makes the maximum magnitude—Mmax—estimation a challenging task, with the crustal fault earthquakes being the most damaging in the seismic history of Central America. The empirical source scaling relations (ESSR) allow the Mmax of faults to be determined from rupture parameters. In this study, we use a dataset of well-characterized earthquakes in the region, comprising 64 events from 1972 to 2021 with magnitudes between Mw 4.1 and 7.7. The dataset incorporates records of rupture parameters (length, width, area, slip, and magnitude) and information on the faults and aftershocks associated. This database is an important product in itself, and through its use we determine which global relations fit best to our data via a residual analysis. Moreover, based on the best-quality records, we develop scaling relations for Central America (CA-ESSR) for rupture length, width, and area. These new relations were tested and compared with recent earthquakes, and logic trees are proposed to combine the CA-ESSR and the best-fit global relations. Therefore, we estimate the Mmax for 30 faults using the logic tree for rupture length, considering a total rupture of the fault andmultifault scenarios. Our results suggest that in CentralAmerica rupture areas larger than other regions are required to generate the samemagnitudes.We associate this with the shear modulus (μ), which seems to be lower (∼ 30% less) than the global mean values for crustal rocks. Furthermore, considering multifault ruptures, we found several fault systems with potential Mmax ≥Mw 7.0. These findings contribute to a better understanding of regional seismotectonics and to the efficient characterization of fault rupture models for seismic hazards.

Description: Seafloor massive sulfides are modern analogues to ancient volcanogenic massive sulfide deposits, which are particularly enriched in volatile and precious metals (e.g., Te, Au, Ag, Cu, Bi, Se) in subduction-related settings. However, the sources of metals are still poorly constrained, and it remains elusive, whether magmatic volatile influx controls their distribution in submarine hydrothermal systems on the plate tectonic-scale. Here, we demonstrate, for the first time, that Te, As, and Sb contents as well as related Te/As and Te/Sb ratios vary systematically with the δ34S composition of pyrite and native S, as reported by high-resolution coupled SIMS δ34S and trace element LA-ICP-MS micro-analysis. The better correlation of element ratios (Te/As, Te/Sb) opposed to trace element contents (e.g., Te) with δ34S in pyrite demonstrates that element ratios provide a more robust record of magmatic volatile influx than their absolute contents. On this basis, we define a quantitative threshold of high Te/As (〉0.004) and Te/Sb (〉0.6) ratios in pyrite that are indicative of magmatic volatile influx to submarine subduction-related hydrothermal systems. Two-component fluid mixing simulations further revealed that 〈5 % of magmatic volatile influx drastically changes the Te/As (and Te/Sb) ratio of the modelled fluid, but only slightly changes its δ34S composition. This suggests that Te/As and Te/Sb ratios are more sensitive to a magmatic volatile influx into seawater-dominated hydrothermal systems than δ34S signatures if the magmatic volatile influx was low. Beyond this, our results demonstrate that magma-derived fluid mixing with seawater only has a negligible effect on the magmatic volatile record of Te/As and Te/Sb, while the S isotope system is prone for seawater overprinting leading to commonly ambiguous source signatures. Thus, Te/As and Te/Sb systematics in pyrite provide a robust proxy to evaluate the contribution of magmatic volatiles to submarine hydrothermal systems from the grain- to plate tectonic-scale.

Description: Bones and teeth are often the only fossil remains of vertebrates that are preserved over geological time in sedimentary rocks. They render valuable archives for geochemical proxies which are commonly used for paleo-reconstructions. However, the fossilization mechanisms of bone are not yet well understood. Crucial processes are the transformation of bioapatite and the replacement of collagen by thermodynamically more stable apatite phases, such as fluorapatite. In the present study, aqueous alteration experiments on cortical bone samples were performed under simulated early diagenetic conditions in order to investigate whether and how an external PO4 source affects post mortem bone mineralization. Additionally, abiotic oxygen isotope exchange mechanisms between bioapatite and aqueous solutions were assessed by using either 18O-enriched water or phosphate as a tracer. The presence of an external sedimentary 18O-labeled PO4 source led to a rapid formation of new fluorapatite crystallites at the sample’s margin that was highly enriched in 18O. Meanwhile, in the interior of the samples carbonate-poor HAp formed through a dissolution-precipitation process without incorporating any of the 18O tracer. These two processes appear to act independently from each other. In samples exposed to 18O-labeled aqueous solutions lacking a PO4 source, no newly grown apatite crystallites were found, however in the interior of these samples, nano-crystalline carbonate-poor or -free hydroxylapatite precipitated. A comparatively low but uniform 18O-enrichment was measured from the sample’s margin towards its interior, which is assumed to have resulted from the adsorption of H218O onto crystallite surface sites and collagen. Overall, our results suggest that a fast incorporation of 18O-doped PO4 from the sediment source accelerated bone mineralization and consequently changed the oxygen isotope composition of the PO4 group in the bone mineral phase more rapidly and to a greater extent than in a diagenetic setting lacking additional external PO4. Dissolved phosphate from the taphonomic setting thus seems to be an important factor fostering bone fossilization and preservation as well as oxygen isotope alteration.

Description: The gravity anomalies reflect density perturbations at different depths, which control the physical state and dynamics of the lithosphere and sub-lithospheric mantle. However, the gravity effect of the crust masks the mantle signals. In this study, we develop two frameworks (correction with density contrasts and actual densities) to calculate the gravity anomalies generated by the layered crust. We apply the proposed approaches to evaluate the global mantle gravity disturbances based on the new crustal models. Consistent patterns and an increasing linear trend of the mantle gravity disturbances with lithospheric thickness and Vs velocities at 150 km depth are obtained. Our results indicate denser lithospheric roots in most cratons and lighter materials in the oceanic mantle. Furthermore, our gravity map corresponds well to regional geological features, providing new insights into mantle structure and dynamics. Specifically, (1) reduced anomalies associated with the Superior and Rae cratons indicate more depleted roots compared with other cratons of North America. (2) Negative anomalies along the Cordillera (western North America) suggest mass deficits owing to the buoyant hot mantle. (3) Positive anomalies in the Baltic, East European, and Siberian cratons support thick, dense lithosphere with significant density heterogeneities, which could result from thermo-chemical modifications of the cratonic roots. (4) Pronounced positive anomalies correspond to stable blocks, e.g., Arabian Platform, Indian Craton, and Tarim basin, indicating a thick, dense lithosphere. (5) Low anomalies in the active tectonic units and back-arc basins suggest local mantle upwellings. (6) The cold subducting/detached plates may result in the high anomalies observed in the Zagros and Tibet.

Description: The 1400 km long North Anatolian Fault Zone in Türkiye runs through numerous densely populated regions, including the city of Düzce that was recently hit by an Mw 6.1 earthquake on 23 November 2022. This was the first moderate event in the region after the devastating Mw 7.2 earthquake in 1999, which cost the lives of over 700 people. Despite its moderate size, the earthquake caused unexpected severe damage to a significant number of buildings, as reported by local institutions (Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency, AFAD). It is well established that ground motions in the near field can lead to increased damage due to near-field domain effects, such as groundmotion pulses and directivity effects (i.e., when the site is aligned with rupture propagation). We examine potential near-field effects using the strong ground motion database of AFAD-Turkish Accelerometric Database and Analysis Systems. To achieve this, we first analyze the behavior of the ground-motion intensities in terms of their spatial distribution and observe higher peak ground velocity than expected by ground-motion models in spatially constrained azimuthal ranges. Furthermore, we find that the majority of the near-fault recordings contain velocity pulses that are primary concentrated on the fault-parallel component. This outcome questions the widely accepted understanding from the previous studies, which mainly suggested that impulsive ground motions that are associated with directivity effects primarily occur on the fault-normal component of large-magnitude events.

Description: Using Global Navigation Satellite System-Reflectometry (GNSS-R) for soil moisture (SM) retrieval has recently gained importance due to its high temporal-spatial resolution. However, the current methods, i.e., constructing a single machine learning (ML)-based model, have large model uncertainty resulting from ML networks and input schemes. Moreover, traditional Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) cannot capture the rapid vegetation changes well. In this paper, a new SM retrieval method of constructing a hybrid model based on Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is employed to reduce the model uncertainty. Meanwhile, novel Sun-induced fluorescence (SIF) data is used as ancillary data to represent the rapid change of vegetation. We validate the proposed method at point and regional scales using in-situ data and the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) product. The results demonstrate that our method has high accuracy and low uncertainty in SM retrieval. At the point scale, as accuracy indices, the average R () of BMA increases from 0.90 to 0.93 and the average root-mean-square-error () decreases from 0.034 to 0.029 ; as indices of uncertainty, the standard deviations of R and RMSE ( and ) decrease by 32 % and 9 % compared to the single ML-based model. For the regional scale, the increases from 0.79 to 0.81, the decreases from 0.024 to 0.023 , and the decreases by 19 %. Moreover, we take the point-scale experiment as an example for comparison to compare the performance of SIF with that of NDVI. The of BMA trained by SIF is 0.03 higher than that trained by NDVI and the decreases by 0.002 ; and decrease by 25 % and 6 %. Based on these results, the proposed method can reduce the uncertainty and the advantage of SIF has potential for improving the SM retrieval.

Description: The Lacq area in southwest France has been associated with continuous moderate induced seismic activity since 1969. However, the mechanisms driving this induced seismicity are not fully understood: reservoir depletion has been proposed as the main factor, and more recently wastewater injection has been suggested to play a more important role (Grasso et al., 2021). The interpretation of these mechanisms relies heavily on the quality of earthquake locations, which we prove to be weak due to a lack of local instrumentation for several years. In order to provide the most complete and reliable induced event catalog for the studies of the Lacq induced seismicity mechanisms & seismic hazard, we made an exhaustive compilation, analysis and improvement of all available catalogs. We also provided new earthquake detections & relocations in a 3D velocity model from past and present temporary deployments never used for studying the Lacq area. Important remaining location uncertainties lead us to also carefully sort the events according to their location confidence, defining 3 classes of events (unconstrained location, location constrained within 2-3 km and 1-2 km respectively). This new harmonized catalog and the identification of well-constrained events, covering 50 years of induced seismicity, allow us to propose that wastewater injection is almost certainly the main mechanism driving the seismicity, with (i) most of the constrained events located within the reservoir boundaries and (ii) the released seismic energy variations following variations in injection operations at different scales. In particular, we have also highlighted a change in the injection-seismicity relationship around 2010–2013. From 2013, despite lower injection volumes, seismicity remained persistent and some clusters of earthquakes were detected predominantly in spring, summer, and early autumn, except in winter periods. From 2016, we observed a strong temporal relationship between days with higher rate/volume injections (approximately above 400m3/day) and both clustered events and higher magnitude earthquakes (greater than 2.4).

Description: This dataset reports measurements from a laboratory incubation of soils sourced from a boreal peatland and surrounding habitats (Siikaneva Bog, Finland). In August 2021, soil cores were collected from three habitat zones: a well-drained upland forest, an intermediate margin ecotone, and a Sphagnum moss bog. The cores from each habitat were taken from surface to approximately 50cm below surface using an Eijelkamp peat corer and subdivided by soil horizon. The samples were then incubated anaerobically for 140 days in three temperature treatment groups (0, 4, 20°C). Subsamples of the incubations headspace (250 µL) were measured on a gas chromatograph (7890A, Agilent Technologies, USA) with flame ionization detection (FID) for CO2 and CH4 concentrations. The rate of respiration from the samples were calculated per gram carbon and per gram soil as described in the method of Robertson., et al. (1999) and reported here, along with other relevant parameters.

Description: The 2022 revision of Aotearoa New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model (NZ NSHM2022) has involved significant revision of all datasets and model components. In this article, we present a subset of many results from the model as well as an overview of the governance, scientific, and review processes followed by the NZ NSHM team. The calculated hazard from the NZ NSHM 2022 has increased for most of New Zealand when compared with the previous models. The NZ NSHM 2022 models and results are available online.

Description: A seismicity rate model (SRM) has been developed as part of the 2022 Aotearoa New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model revision. The SRM consists of many component models, each of which falls into one of two classes: (1) inversion fault model (IFM); or (2) distributed seismicity model (DSM). Here we provide an overview of the SRM and a brief description of each of the component models. The upper plate IFM forecasts the occurrence rate for hundreds of thousands of potential ruptures derived from the New Zealand Community Fault Model version 1.0 and utilizing either geologic- or geodeticbased fault-slip rates. These ruptures are typically less than a couple of hundred kilometers long, but can exceed 1500 km and extend along most of the length of the country (albeit with very low probabilities of exceedance [PoE]). We have also applied the IFM method to the two subduction zones of New Zealand and forecast earthquake magnitudes of up to ∼Mw 9.4, again with very low PoE. The DSM combines a hybrid model developed using multiple datasets with a non-Poisson uniform rate zone model for lower seismicity regions of New Zealand. Forecasts for 100 yr are derived that account for overdispersion of the rate variability when compared with Poisson. Finally, the epistemic uncertainty has been modeled via the range of models and parameters implemented in an SRM logic tree. Results are presented, which indicate the sensitivity of hazard results to the logic tree branches and that were used to reduce the overall complexity of the logic tree.

Description: We present a kinematic model developed from geodetic observations, topography analysis and analogue tectonic modelling results, which reveals a striking similarity between the rotational tectonic settings of the Gakkel Ridge-Chersky Range system in the Arctic, and the Central Indian Tectonic Zone within the Indian subcontinent. A crucial aspect of large-scale extensional rift systems is the gradual variation of extension along the rift axis, due to plate rotation about a Euler pole, which may lead to contraction on the opposite side of the Euler pole to form a rotational tectonic system. Our geodetic and topographic analysis, combined with the reanalysis of analogue tectonic modelling results demonstrates such rotational tectonic plate motion in both the Arctic and Indian case. However, the plate boundary between the North American and Eurasian Plates as represented by the Arctic Gakkel Ridge-Chersky Range system is strongly localized, whereas the Central Indian Tectonic Zone that separates the North and South India Plates involves diffuse deformation instead. Furthermore, in both the Arctic and Central Indian we find that the relative Euler rotation pole is located near an indenter-like feature, which possibly controls the present-day rotational tectonics and contrasting topography on opposite sides of the Euler pole.

Description: To test whether a globally inferred sediment thickness value from geomorphological studies can be used as a proxy to predict earthquake site amplification, we derive site-amplification models from the relation between empirical amplification for sites in Europe and Türkiye and the geomorphological sediment thickness. The new site-amplification predictions are then compared to predictions from site-amplification models derived using the traditional site proxies, VS30 inferred from slope, slope itself, and geological era and slope combined. The ability of each proxy to capture the site amplification is evaluated based on the reduction in site-to-site variability caused by each proxy. The results show that the highest reduction is caused by geological era and slope combined, while the geomorphological sediment thickness shows a slightly larger or equal reduction in site-to-site variability as inferred VS30 and slope. We therefore argue that including geology and geomorphology in site-amplification modelling on regional scale can give an important added value and that globally or regionally inferred models for soil and sediment thickness from fields beyond engineering seismology can have a great potential in regional seismic hazard and risk assessments. Furthermore, the differences between the site-amplification maps derived from different proxies capture the epistemic uncertainty of site-amplification modelling. While the different proxies predict similar features on a large scale, local differences can be large. This shows that using only one proxy when predicting site amplification does not capture the full epistemic uncertainty, which is demonstrated by looking into detail on the site-amplification maps predicted for eastern Türkiye and Syria, where the devastating Kahramanmaraş earthquake sequence occurred in February 2023.

Description: The death toll andmonetary damages from landslides continue to rise despite advancements in predictive modeling. These models’ performances are limited as landslide databases used in developing them often miss crucial information, e.g., underlying movement types. This study introduces a method of discerning landslide movements, such as slides, flows, and falls, by analyzing landslides’ 3D shapes. By examining landslide topological properties, we discover distinct patterns in their morphology, indicating different movements including complex ones with multiple coupled movements. We achieve 80- 94% accuracy by applying topological properties in identifying landslide movements across diverse geographical and climatic regions, including Italy, the US Pacific Northwest, Denmark, Turkey, and Wenchuan in China. Furthermore, we demonstrate a real-world application on undocumented datasets from Wenchuan. Our work introduces a paradigm for studying landslide shapes to understand their underlying movements through the lens of landslide topology, which could aid landslide predictive models and risk evaluations.