ALBERT

Description: In coupled human-environment systems where well established and proven general theories are often lacking cluster analysis provides the possibility to discover regularities – a first step in empirically based theory building. The aim of this report is to share the experiences and knowledge on cluster analysis we gained in several applications in this realm helping to avoid typical problems and pitfalls. In our description of issues and methods we will highlight well-known main-stream methods as well as promising new developments, referring to pertinent literature for further information, thus offering also some potential new insights for the more experienced. The following aspects are discussed in detail: data-selection and pre-treatment, selection of a distance measure in the data space, selection of clustering method, performing clustering (parameterizing the algorithm(s), determining the number of clusters etc.) and the interpretation and evaluation of results. We link our description – as far as tools for performing the analysis are concerned - to the R software environment and its associated cluster analysis packages. We have used this public domain software, together with own tailor-made extensions, documented in the appendix.

Description: Climate change affects societies across the globe in various ways. In addition to gradual changes in temperature and other climatic variables, global warming is likely to increase intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. Beyond biophysical impacts, these also directly affect societal and economic activity. Additionally, indirect effects can occur; spatially, economic losses can spread along global supply-chains; temporally, climate impacts can change the economic development trajectory of countries. This thesis first examines how climate change alters river flood risk and its local socio-economic implications. Then, it studies the global economic response to river floods in particular, and to climate change in general. Changes in high-end river flood risk are calculated for the next three decades on a global scale with high spatial resolution. In order to account for uncertainties, this assessment makes use of an ensemble of climate and hydrological models as well as a river routing model, that is found to perform well regarding peak river discharge. The results show an increase in high-end flood risk in many parts of the world, which require profound adaptation efforts. This pressure to adapt is measured as the enhancement in protection level necessary to stay at historical high-end risk. In developing countries as well as in industrialized regions, a high pressure to adapt is observed - the former to increase low protection levels, the latter to maintain the low risk levels perceived in the past. Further in this thesis, the global agent-based dynamic supply-chain model acclimate is developed. It models the cascading of indirect losses in the global supply network. As an anomaly model its agents - firms and consumers - maximize their profit locally to respond optimally to local perturbations. Incorporating quantities as well as prices on a daily basis, it is suitable to dynamically resolve the impacts of unanticipated climate extremes. The model is further complemented by a static measure, which captures the inter-dependencies between sectors across regions that are only connected indirectly. These higher-order dependencies are shown to be important for a comprehensive assessment of loss-propagation and overall costs of local disasters. In order to study the economic response to river floods, the acclimate model is driven by flood simulations. Within the next two decades, the increase in direct losses can only partially be compensated by market adjustments, and total losses are projected to increase by 17% without further adaptation efforts. The US and the EU are both shown to receive indirect losses from China, which is strongly affected directly. However, recent trends in the trade relations leave the EU in a better position to compensate for these losses. Finally, this thesis takes a broader perspective when determining the investment response to the climate change damages employing the integrated assessment model DICE. On an optimal economic development path, the increase in damages is anticipated as emissions and consequently temperatures increase. This leads to a significant devaluation of investment returns and the income losses from climate damages almost double. Overall, the results highlight the need to adapt to extreme weather events - local physical adaptation measures have to be combined with regional and global policy measures to prepare the global supply-chain network to climate change.

Description: This paper describes the motivation for the creation of the Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation and Climate Services (VIACS) Advisory Board for the Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), its initial activities, and its plans to serve as a bridge between climate change applications experts and climate modelers. The climate change application community comprises researchers and other specialists who use climate information (alongside socioeconomic and other environmental information) to analyze vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation of natural systems and society in relation to past, ongoing, and projected future climate change. Much of this activity is directed toward the co-development of information needed by decision-makers for managing projected risks. CMIP6 provides a unique opportunity to facilitate a two-way dialog between climate modelers and VIACS experts who are looking to apply CMIP6 results for a wide array of research and climate services objectives. The VIACS Advisory Board convenes leaders of major impact sectors, international programs, and climate services to solicit community feedback that increases the applications relevance of the CMIP6-Endorsed Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs). As an illustration of its potential, the VIACS community provided CMIP6 leadership with a list of prioritized climate model variables and MIP experiments of the greatest interest to the climate model applications community, indicating the applicability and societal relevance of climate model simulation outputs. The VIACS Advisory Board also recommended an impacts version of Obs4MIPs and indicated user needs for the gridding and processing of model output.

Description: There is evidence that a self-sustaining ice discharge from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) has started, potentially leading to its disintegration. The associated sea level rise of more than 3m would pose a serious challenge to highly populated areas including metropolises such as Calcutta, Shanghai, New York City, and Tokyo. Here, we show that the WAIS may be stabilized through mass deposition in coastal regions around Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers. In our numerical simulations, a minimum of 7400 Gt of additional snowfall stabilizes the flow if applied over a short period of 10 years onto the region (−2 mm year−1 sea level equivalent). Mass deposition at a lower rate increases the intervention time and the required total amount of snow. We find that the precise conditions of such an operation are crucial, and potential benefits need to be weighed against environmental hazards, future risks, and enormous technical challenges.

Description: The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is likely the most well-known system of ocean currents on Earth, redistributing heat, nutrients and carbon over a large part of the Earth’s surface and affecting global climate as a result. Due to enhanced freshwater fluxes into the subpolar North Atlantic as a response to global warming, the AMOC is expected, and may have already started, to weaken and these changes will likely have global impacts. It is therefore of considerable relevance to improve our understanding of past and future AMOC changes. My thesis tries to answer some of the open questions in this field by giving strong evidence that the AMOC has already weakened over the last century, by narrowing future projections of this slowdown and by studying the impacts on global surface warming.

Description: A methodology to assess future development in patterns of vulnerability is presented which can support the assessment of global policies with regard to their impacts on specific vulnerabilities on the regional or local scale. Patterns of vulnerability, formalized by vulnerability profiles (e.g. for the livelihoods of dryland smallholder farmers) were investigated under different consistent indicator scenarios reflecting different global policies. After unfolding several principal possibilities to do such an analysis of temporal change in vulnerability patterns we could conclude that the concept of “Clusters of Change” (CoCs) is the most straight forward and promising approach. The main arguments are that each interpretation has necessarily to consider both, the starting situation and it’s change over time (”poor and heavily improving”, ”rich and stagnating” etc.). This implies that we are looking for patterns which represent typical combinations of present states AND expected future changes. An application of the CoC-concept to the drylands vulnerability patterns considering the indicator set for the present situation and the same indicator set for 2050 under a baseline scenario was performed as a test. Comparison of the present vulnerability cluster partition with the spatial distribution of the CoCs revealed that most of these clusters are separated into an improving and a deteriorating part which shows where winners and losers of the baseline scenario are – an interesting result which illustrates the appropriateness of the CoC – method. To explore the potential of CoCs for the dryland vulnerability we applied the method to two different sets of scenarios until 2050: a baseline vs. Climate policy scenario (OECD, 2012) and a ”policy first” scenario vs. ”security first” scenario (UNEP, 2007). The first one serves as an example for a policy assessment while the second compares the vulnerability consequences of two scenarios based on different story-lines of further global development. The main conclusion to be drawn from these calculations is that the CoCs are rather insensitive with regard to the small differences between the scenarios. Regarding the first set of scenarios the relatively short time horizon of relevant influences of climate policies on climate change impacts and several indicators which are not influenced at all generate only a very small difference. The only significant change in the resulting vulnerability profiles was in the values of change in water scarcity: it was lower for all profiles in the climate policy case. The second set of scenarios is not directly related to policy decisions but to different global story-lines which deviate stronger. This resulted in an increasing cluster number from 4 (policy first) to 5 (security first) clusters, about 20% of the pixels changing cluster membership, 3 clusters showing the same spatial extent for both scenarios but the 4th cluster (“policy first”) “losing” India which generates a separate cluster in the “security first” scenario. This allows for the interpretation that a further development according to the “security first”-storyline compared to the “policy first”-storyline would make a difference particularly for India. Closer inspection of the respective profile shows a qualitatively different situation indicating increased vulnerability compared to the “policy first” scenario where India shares one cluster with e.g., Northern Africa.

Description: Climate change is arguably the most severe challenge facing our planet during the 21st century. Human interference with the climate system (mainly through the emission of greenhouse gases and changes in land use) has increased the global and annual mean air temperature at the Earth's surface by roughly 0.8 °C since the 19th century (IPCC, 2013). The year 2014 was the hottest one on record so far (NOAA, 2015a), and at the time of writing, 2015 appears to be on track to set a new record (NOAA, 2015b). This trend of increasing temperatures will continue into the future: by 2100, the globe could warm by another 4 °C or so if emissions are not decisively reduced within the next decades (IPCC, 2013). There is broad agreement that a warming of this magnitude would have profound impacts both on the environment and on human societies (IPCC, 2014a), and that climate change mitigation via a transformation to decarbonized economies and societies has to be achieved to prevent the worst of these impacts (IPCC, 2014b). The spatial and temporal extent of the climate challenge deeply connects it to ethical questions as well. These arise both from the fact that the poorest people on Earth are not significantly contributing to global emissions, but may well feel the impacts most severely, and from the long‐term commitment to future warming and climate change impacts – like sea level or the partial melting of the large ice sheets – which will be felt by future generations. In essence, past and future greenhouse gas emissions seriously affect a large fraction of the still growing human population on our planet and profoundly shape the environment in which our children and grandchildren will have to live in. Humanity therefore has a moral obligation to address the climate challenge. This will have to combine successful negotiations on a binding and effective international climate agreement and bottom‐up initiatives from individuals or communities. There is a wide range of global threats that certainly require humanity's urgent attention (see the recent report by the World Economic Forum, 2015). These global risks include water, food and energy security, population growth, infectious diseases, and international security, for example. However, climate change is often regarded as one of the most profound global problems. This is mainly due to the sheer scale of climate change impacts – both in terms of its global and temporal spread and of the variety of sectors affected by it – that sets it apart from other planetary challenges. Indeed, recent high‐level initiatives highlight the importance of climate change, including the ground‐breaking encyclical of Pope Francis, the G7 countries' pledge to phase out fossil fuels or Barack Obama's new climate mitigation proposal. But climate change cannot be considered isolated from other challenges. Indeed, climate change is a truly cross‐cutting issue affecting many sectors and connected to other global challenges. For example, climate change has the potential to impact global water supplies, agricultural production, human health, and our energy infrastructure. In turn, the way in which we produce our energy and food has a profound effect on the Earth's climate system. Finally, the impacts of policies in one of the fields on the other challenges need to be explored if truly sustainable solutions to global problems shall be achieved. These close connections – and the societal and technical challenges of climate mitigation (IPCC 2014b) and adaptation (IPCC 2014a) – require interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary thinking; we hope that our new journal Global Challenges can serve as a highly visible forum for research bridging classical scientific disciplines, for ideas which have the potential to directly influence future climate policy and for discussions about new research and different policy options. Within the climate change focus of Global Challenges , we therefore invite submissions related to climate change of the highest quality, with a clear focus on the global view of the climate problem and with relevance for (global) climate policy or bottom‐up initiatives which are a significant step towards a solution of the climate challenge. We explicitly invite submissions connecting climate change to the other challenges covered by the journal. In addition to original research papers, we will regularly commission commentary pieces and review articles highlighting the most relevant recent developments in climate research and policy as well as the most exciting open research questions. I firmly believe that a journal like Global Challenges with its broad scope, its cross‐cutting nature, its focus on policy relevance, and its open‐access publication model is an important and innovative outlet for high‐quality research work on global problems in general. Concerning climate change in particular, I am looking forward to working with the editorial team, the staff at Wiley and the global climate science community to develop Global Challenges into one of the major journals in the field.

Description: Climate change and socioeconomic developments will have a decisive impact on people exposed to hunger. This study analyses climate change impacts on agriculture and potential implications for the occurrence of hunger under different socioeconomic scenarios for 2030, focusing on the world regions most affected by poverty today: the Middle East and North Africa, South Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa. We use a spatially explicit, agroeconomic land-use model to assess agricultural vulnerability to climate change. The aims of our study are to provide spatially explicit projections of climate change impacts on Costs of Food, and to combine them with spatially explicit hunger projections for the year 2030, both under a poverty, as well as a prosperity scenario. Our model results indicate that while average yields decrease with climate change in all focus regions, the impact on the Costs of Food is very diverse. Costs of Food increase most in the Middle East and North Africa, where available agricultural land is already fully utilized and options to import food are limited. The increase is least in Sub-Saharan Africa, since production there can be shifted to areas which are only marginally affected by climate change and imports from other regions increase. South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa can partly adapt to climate change, in our model, by modifying trade and expanding agricultural land. In the Middle East and North Africa, almost the entire population is affected by increasing Costs of Food, but the share of people vulnerable to hunger is relatively low, due to relatively strong economic development in these projections. In Sub-Saharan Africa, the Vulnerability to Hunger will persist, but increases in Costs of Food are moderate. While in South Asia a high share of the population suffers from increases in Costs of Food and is exposed to hunger, only a negligible number of people will be exposed at extreme levels. Independent of the region, the impacts of climate change are less severe in a richer and more globalized world. Adverse climate impacts on the Costs of Food could be moderated by promoting technological progress in agriculture. Improving market access would be advantageous for farmers, providing the opportunity to profitably increase production in the Middle East and North Africa as well as in South Asia, but may lead to increasing Costs of Food for consumers. In the long-term perspective until 2080, the consequences of climate change will become even more severe: while in 2030 56% of the global population may face increasing Costs of Food in a poor and fragmented world, in 2080 the proportion will rise to 73%.

Description: While deforestation represents an obvious ecosystem change, forest degradation is often more difficult to discern or quantify, but it impacts anumber of ecosystem functions which are vital for biodiversity and climate feedbacks. In the Brazilian Amazon, land-use changes increasefire occurrence, especially in fragmented forests close to managed land. We used remote sensing imagery to estimate the extent and impact of forest fires in degraded tropical rain-forest in the Brazilian Legal Amazon between 2007 and 2010and examinedland-use establishing in degraded areas. The trends in degraded area vs. burned area were different. Even though degradation increased one year after a high fire year, there wasnospatialoverlap, which pointsto other causes for degradation. Up to 11% of the degraded area was burned in the same year, playing escaping fires from managed and deforested lands a significant role in degradation by fire. Eighty-fourpercent of 2007s degraded area remained forest one year later, whereas the rest was identified as deforestation, secondary vegetation or pasture.Three years after degradation, 80% remained forest, the proportion of deforested area decreased and areas in regeneration after being deforested increased. Monitoring of forest degradation across tropical forests is critical for developing land management policies and for carbon stocks/emissions estimation.

Description: Germany wishes to cut its greenhouse gas emissions by 80 to 95 per cent by 2050. However, despite the success to date, the measures which have already been planned and implemented are not sufficient for achieving this ambitious goal. In addition to the energy sector, the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions, German industry is also responsible for releasing considerable volumes of global warming gases. In its Climate Action Plan 2050, the Federal Government has for the first time set a sector target for industry. The present acatech POSITION PAPER analyses the options for (re)utilising and storing CO2 (Carbon Capture and Utilisation (CCU) and Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)) which come into consideration for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from industrial processes. It is recommended that a wide-ranging public debate about the use of CCU and CCS be conducted in the near future. Only then will it be possible to take account of reservations about CCU and CCS, further develop suitable technology in good time and bring it to market maturity so that the necessary infrastructure can be planned, approved, funded and constructed.

Description: Airborne influenza virus transmission is depending on climate. Infected individuals are able to travel to any country in the world within one day. In this study we combine these two insights to investigate the influence of climate change on pandemic spreading patterns of airborne infectious diseases, like influenza. Well-known recent examples for pandemics are severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS, 2002/2003) and H1N1 (Influenza A virus subtype, 2009), which have demonstrated the vulnerability of a strongly connected world.

Description: Geo-Engineering, früher Stoff für Science Fiction, hat den wissenschaftlichenMainstream erreicht—und die internationale Politik. Doch dasKlimaschutzpotential der Technologien scheint entweder stark begrenztoder mit kaum kalkulierbaren Risiken und Nebenwirkungen verbunden.

Description: Haben wir die Zeiten des Imperialismus nicht längst hinter uns gelassen? Wenn man erwägt, in welchem Maße sich der Globale Norden nach wie vor an den ökologischen und sozialen Ressourcen des Globalen Südens bedient, rücken die Begriffe »Globaler Kapitalismus« und »Imperialismus« wieder näher zusammen. Unsere Muster von Produktion und Konsum erfordern einen überproportionalen Zugriff auf Ressourcen, Arbeitskraft und biologische Senken der restlichen Welt. Mit anderen Worten: Die Ausbeutung von Mensch und Natur hält nach wie vor an – und nimmt weiter an Fahrt auf.Ulrich Brand und Markus Wissen legen in ihrem Buch eine umfassende Krisenbeschreibung vor, die zeigt, wie inadäquat die aktuellen, oft marktförmigen und technischen Strategien der Problemlösung im Kapitalismus sind. Das Buch erinnert eindringlich daran, wie notwendig eine umfassende »sozial-ökologische Transformation« hin zu einer solidarischen Lebensweise ist und wie man sie auf den Weg bringen kann.

Description: Danksagung 7Kapitel 1An den Grenzen einer Lebensweise 9Kapitel 2Multiple Krise und sozial-ökologische Transformation 21Kapitel 3Der Begriff der imperialen Lebensweise 43Kapitel 4Die historische Entstehung der imperialen Lebensweise 69Kapitel 5Die globale Verallgemeinerung und Vertiefung der imperialen Lebensweise 95Kapitel 6Imperiale Automobilität 125Kapitel 7Falsche Alternativen. Von der grünen Ökonomie zum grünen Kapitalismus? 147Kapitel 8Konturen einer solidarischen Lebensweise 165Anmerkungen 187Literaturverzeichnis 202Abkürzungsverzeichnis 222Über die Autoren 224

Description: Air pollution has large impacts on the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH), affecting not just the health of people and ecosystems, but also climate, the cryosphere, monsoon patterns, water availability, agriculture, and incomes (established but incomplete). Although the available data are not comprehensive, they clearly show that the HKH receives significant amounts of air pollution from within and outside of the region, including the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP), a region where many rural areas are severely polluted. In addition, the HKH receives transboundary pollution from other parts of Asia. This chapter surveys the evidence on regional air pollution and considers options for reducing it, while underlining the need for regional collaboration in mitigation efforts. As described in Chap. 1, the HKH region is fragile and rapidly changing; while the outcome of the interplay of complex drivers is difficult to predict, it will have major consequences. That holds true for air pollution as well.

Description: GRASP (Governance of Resources for Arctic Sustainable Policy and Practice) is an inter- and transdisciplinary research project jointly developed in 2014 by the Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI), the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS) and the Jade University of Applied Sciences

Description: Trade is the lifeblood of the global economy, but few would consider it a social good. Instead, our views on trade have polarized between two extremes: ‘free trade’ ideologues who regard trade as an end in itself, and ‘protectionists’ who view it as a destructive force to be contained. But there is another way to trade – one with the interests of people, not profit, at its heart. In this visionary work Christian Felber, founder of the Economy for the Common Good movement, offers a dazzling new paradigm for the global trading order. Confronting the ‘free trade religion’ which has reigned since Adam Smith, Felber champions an alternative approach in which trade serves the wider interests of society, incorporating the key issues of our time: human rights, climate change, and the growing divide richer and poorer countries. He proposes the groundbreaking idea of an ‘Ethical Trade Zone’, founded on a principled approach to tariffs and trade policies, and built with international cooperation on trade, taxation and labour.

Description: The Fennec climate programme aims to improve understanding of the Saharan climate system through a synergy of observations and modelling. We present a description of the Fennec airborne observations during 2011 and 2012 over the remote Sahara (Mauritania and Mali) and the advances in the understanding of mineral dust and boundary layer processes they have provided. Aircraft instrumentation aboard the UK FAAM BAe146 and French SAFIRE (Service des Avions Français Instrumentés pour la Recherche en Environnement) Falcon 20 is described, with specific focus on instrumentation specially developed for and relevant to Saharan meteorology and dust. Flight locations, aims and associated meteorology are described. Examples and applications of aircraft measurements from the Fennec flights are presented, highlighting new scientific results delivered using a synergy of different instruments and aircraft. These include (1) the first airborne measurement of dust particles sizes of up to 300 microns and associated dust fluxes in the Saharan atmospheric boundary layer (SABL), (2) dust uplift from the breakdown of the nocturnal low-level jet before becoming visible in SEVIRI (Spinning Enhanced Visible Infra-Red Imager) satellite imagery, (3) vertical profiles of the unique vertical structure of turbulent fluxes in the SABL, (4) in situ observations of processes in SABL clouds showing dust acting as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice nuclei (IN) at −15 °C, (5) dual-aircraft observations of the SABL dynamics, thermodynamics and composition in the Saharan heat low region (SHL), (6) airborne observations of a dust storm associated with a cold pool (haboob) issued from deep convection over the Atlas Mountains, (7) the first airborne chemical composition measurements of dust in the SHL region with differing composition, sources (determined using Lagrangian backward trajectory calculations) and absorption properties between 2011 and 2012, (8) coincident ozone and dust surface area measurements suggest coarser particles provide a route for ozone depletion, (9) discrepancies between airborne coarse-mode size distributions and AERONET (AERosol Robotic NETwork) sunphotometer retrievals under light dust loadings. These results provide insights into boundary layer and dust processes in the SHL region – a region of substantial global climatic importance.

Description: ‘Transgovernance: Advancing Sustainability Governance’ analyses what implications recent and ongoing changes in the relations between politics, science and media – together characterized as the emergence of a knowledge democracy – may have for governance for sustainable development, on global and other levels of societal decision making, and vice versa: How can the discussion on sustainable development contribute to a knowledge democracy? How can concepts such as second modernity, reflexivity, configuration theory, (meta)governance theory and cultural theory contribute to a ‘transgovernance’ approach which goes beyond mainstream sustainability governance? This volume presents contributions from various angles: international relations, governance and metagovernance theory, (environmental) economics and innovation science. It offers challenging insights regarding institutions and transformation processes, and into the paradigms behind contemporary sustainability governance. This book gives the sustainability governance debate a new context. It transforms classical questions into new options for societal decision making and identifies starting points and strategies aimed at effective governance of transitions to sustainability.

Description: Focusing on critical aspects of infrastructure, such as energy, this brief argues that Africa, and African cities in particular, need infrastructure that advances both basic needs and industrialization, and avoids a lock-in of unsustainable, high-carbon technologies. G20 countries can promote and support quality of life in Africa by: (1) aligning and cementing the G20 Agenda for Africa with African initiatives, SDGs and the Paris Agreement, (2) mitigating economic risks of climate change through supporting low carbon development pathways in Africa, (3) creating and enabling a level playing field for low carbon technologies, which includes integrated strategies for de-risking renewable energy investments, and (4) supporting smart and sustainable urban planning.

Description: This paper describes and quantifies three different energy policy pathways for Spain’s energy transition: government-centred, represented by the socialist party (Partido Socialista Obrero Español, PSOE); market-centred, represented by the conservative party (Partido Popular, PP); and grassroots, represented by Unidas Podemos.

Description: Die gesellschaftliche Akzeptanz von Energieinfrastrukturen und klimapolitischen Maßnahmen stellt einen wesentlichen Erfolgsfaktor für die Transformation des Energiesystems dar. Das folgende Kapitel beschreibt konzeptionelle Grundlagen bezüglich der Definition und Dimensionierung des Akzeptanzbegriffs sowie deren psychologische Grundlagen und beleuchtet relevante Einflussfaktoren auf die Akzeptanz von Energieinfrastrukturen wie Erneuerbaren Energien und dem Ausbau des Stromnetzes. Es werden Praxisbeispiele aus unterschiedlichen Anwendungsfeldern berichtet und konkrete Möglichkeiten diskutiert, auf lokaler Ebene akzeptable Lösungen zu erreichen, wobei die besondere Rolle einer konstruktiven Partizipationskultur für die Akzeptanz und die gesellschaftliche Transformation aufgezeigt wird.

Description: This chapter is a joint effort by natural and legal scientists to make the case for the dramatic consequences black carbon (BC) emissions mainly from outside the Arctic region have on the Arctic ecosystem, and how BC has recently become the specific focus of a regime complex. The authors provide scientific knowledge about the sources, pathways, and climate impacts of BC emissions, and stress the special relevance of possible near-immediate climate benefits from BC emission reduction in the Arctic. Further consideration is given to the crucial importance of the governance responses to these opportunities and challenges. Thus, the second part of the chapter critically discusses the status and prospects of current multilateral BC emission reduction efforts in the context of the Arctic Council, the International Maritime Organization, and the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution.

Description: The paper applies the concept of systemic risks to natural disasters, more precisely to the combination of natural and human-induced disasters. the paper highlights policy implications of these strategies and calls out for an integrated, inclusive and adaptive management approach for the systemic aspects of natural hazards.

Description: Der Text beruht auf unserem 2016 erschienenen Buch „Die Konsultative. Mehr Demokratie durch Bürgerbeteiligung“ (Berlin: Wagenbach Verlag). Dort wird das Konzept detailliert ausgeführt und belegt, weswegen wir hier auf Zitate und Bibliographie verzichten.

Description: Carbon dioxide (CO2) is a fundamental component of all life on Earth. Due to the considerable increase in emissions, particularly industrial emissions, CO2has, however, become a waste product and greenhouse gas damaging to the climate and, consequently, a threat to both humanity and nature. For almost 50years, chemical research has been pursuing the idea of making the CO2 molecule useful as a raw material(Aresta and Dibenedetto 2010). Within the context of the oil crises of the 1970s, and contingent on the currentneed for climate protection, there has been a rise in global interest in the research and development oftechnologies which could make CO2 useful as a source of carbon. Several regions in Europe, but also in North America and Asia have started sponsorship programmes to support the development of such technologies (BMBF 2014, Climate-KIC 2014, U.S. Department of Energy [DOE] n.d.).The goal of these efforts is to integrate this climatedamaging gas in extremely diverse industrial productionprocesses as a raw material. The use of CO2 would not only allow for the production of useful raw materials and products, such technologies could alsoemulate a natural carbon cycle (Peters et al. 2011). At the same time, they have the potential to reduce the consumption of other fossil resources and, in so doing, they might not only contribute to the extension of the resource base, but also reduce missionswhilst providing protection for natural resources (von der Assen et al. 2013). Technological breakthroughs and advancements are currently observedin carbon capture technologies in the catalysis and transformation of CO2 (Aresta 2010, Mikkelsen et al. 2010, Peters et al. 2011, Styring et al. 2011, Wilcox 2012, Smit et al. 2014, Klankermayer and Leitner 2015), and the first innovative CO2-based productsare already coming onto the markets.

Description: Under its special initiative “One World, No Hunger” (SEWOH), the GermanFederal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) is prioritizingefforts to deliver food security and enhance the management of naturalresources. The protection and rehabilitation of agricultural land managed bysmallholder farmers are central to this dual agenda and form the objectives ofa GIZ programme implemented in five countries. Seeking to explore new formsof development cooperation, SEWOH mandated the Global Soil Forum (GSF)to accompany the work of the GIZ through transdisciplinary research. Theaccompanying research project focuses on the socio-economic and culturalfactors that constrain the uptake of sustainable land management (SLM) techniquesby smallholder farmers. The GSF’s approach stresses co-developmentand the pursuit of research themes with local partners, including researchers,policymakers, actors of development cooperation, civil society organisations,and farmers.

Description: Here we present the results of the demonstration tests that took place in Summer 2018 during the final months of the four-year Best Paths project. Details will be given on the assembly and finalizing of the demonstrator installation as well as the testing strategy defined for HVDC superconducting cables and adopted in the project. Some possibilities of installation within the electricity grids will also be discussed.

Description: Die Konferenz »Bits & Bäume« (2018 in Berlin) bot das bis dato größte Debattenforum für Digitalisierung und Nachhaltigkeit. Über 50 Autor*innen aus Tech-Szene, Nachhaltigkeitsbewegung und Entwicklungszusammenarbeit zeigen in diesem Buch zur Konferenz, wie die Digitalisierung den sozial-ökologischen Wandel voranbringen kann. Die Beiträge beleuchten die Auswirkungen unseres Digitalkonsums im Globalen Süden, den nachhaltigen Umgang mit Daten oder die Risiken und Potenziale eines digitalisierten Wirtschaftssystems. Im Mittelpunkt steht dabei stets die drängende Frage: Welche Digitalisierung wollen wir? Die verschiedenen Antworten auf diese Frage machen deutlich: Eine zukunftsfähige Digitalisierung muss sich weniger an Interessen einzelner Wirtschaftsakteure, sondern am Gemeinwohl orientieren.

Description: Kohlenstoffdioxid (CO2) ist ein Grundbaustein allen Lebens auf der Erde. Mittlerweile ist CO2 jedochdurch den starken Anstieg vor allem industrieller Emissionen als klimaschädlicher Abfall und Treibhausgas zu einer Bedrohung für Menschheit und Natur geworden. Bereits seit fast 50 Jahren verfolgt die chemische Forschung die Idee, das Molekül CO2 als Rohstoff nutzbar zu machen (Aresta & Dibenedetto 2010). Im Kontext der Ölkrisen in den 1970er-Jahren und bedingt durch die Erfordernisse des aktuellen Klimaschutzes stieg weltweit das Interesse an der Erforschung und Entwicklung von Technologien, die CO2 als Kohlenstoffquelle nutzen könnten.Etliche Regionen in Europa, aber auch in Nordamerika und Asien haben Förderprogramme ins Leben gerufen, die solche Technologieentwicklungen unterstützen (BMBF 2013, Climate-KIC 2014, US DOE o. D.-b).Das Ziel dieser Bemühungen ist es, das klimaschädliche Gas als Rohstoff in ganz unterschiedliche industrielleProduktionsprozesse einzubinden. Hiermit könnten mithilfe von CO2 nicht nur nützliche Grundstoffe und Produkte hergestellt werden. Vielmehr imitieren diese Technologien auch einen natürlichen Kohlenstoffkreislauf (Peters et al. 2011). Gleichzeitighaben sie das Potenzial, den Verbrauch anderer fossiler Ressourcen zu verringern und somit möglicherweisenicht nur zur Erweiterung der Rohstoffbasis, sondern auch zur Schonung natürlicher Ressourcenund zur Emissionsverminderung beizutragen (von der Assen, Jung & Bardow 2013). Technologische Durchbrüche und Fortschritte sind derzeit sowohl in den Abscheidungstechnologien als auch in der Katalyse und Umwandlung von CO2 zu beobachten (Aresta 2010, Klankermayer & Leitner 2015, Mikkelsen, Jorgensen& Krebs 2010, Peters et al. 2011, Smit, Park & Gadikota 2014, Styring et al. 2011, Wilcox 2012). Erste neuartige CO2-basierte Produkte erreichen aktuelldie Märkte.

Description: Current efforts at the International Seabed Authority to develop regulations pertaining to the exploitation of deep seabed minerals would benefit from a moment of reflection on the future governance of these resources. As the Area and its resources have been declared a common heritage of mankind, this principle must be taken into account when designing the future governance of activities in the Area.

Description: The concept of boundary work has been put forward as an analytical approach towards the study of interactions between science and policy. While the concept has been useful as a case-study approach, there are several weaknesses and constraints when using the concept in a more systemic analysis of the interactions between knowledge production and sustainable development decision-making at the international level, such as its inability to capture the diversity of institutions involved in such boundary work. Another inability involves a lack of conceptualisation of the impacts of the specific conditions of intergovernmental decision-making, such as rules for representation and the mode of negotiation. This chapter suggests complementing the concept of boundary work with a configuration approach based on a two-dimensional conceptualisation of the boundary space in international decision-making that allows the positioning of institutions with regard to their degree of politicisation and their position in terms of national and regional representation. Such an approach could be a useful guide in the further conceptualisation and application of the boundary concept.

Description: In dem Discussion Paper werden die Bedingungen und Herausforderungen für den transformativen Forschungsansatz des IASS diskutiert.

Description: Die vier Kopernikus-Projekte zur Erforschung der Energiewende werden vom Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF) gefördert und sind Ende 2016 angelaufen. Im Mittelpunkt des hier beschriebenen Kopernikus-Projekts ENavi steht die Roadsmap für eine systemisch verknüpfte Navigation in Richtung Energiewende. Dieser Statusbericht beschreibt die wesentlichen Ergebnisse. Vor allem die aus vielen Mosaiksteinen der 13 Arbeitspakete zusammengesetzten Collagen zu den drei Schwerpunktthemen liefern Einblicke in nachhaltige Strukturen und Anforderungen für Stromsystem, Wärmeversorgung und Mobilität.

Description: The second session on integrated ocean management was kicked-off by Sebastian Unger (IASS Potsdam). In his keynote presentation he highlighted the great political moment for moving towards integrated ocean governance, which could be even further advanced through (a) innovating instruments, (b) complementary strategies at national, regional and global scale, and (c) capacity-building and sustainable finance. In particular, he argued that the regional level could act as a broker for integration, as there are well-established institutions at regional level, where agreement can be reached more easily than at global level and which allows for a meaningful implementation of the ecosystem approach. In the discussion moderation by Management Board member Gert Verreet, discussants pointed out that in Europe, many of the institutions (e.g. at sea-basin level), instruments (e.g. Marine Spatial Planning) and commitment to integrated ocean management were already in place; however, a better implementation was necessary.

Description: In order to fulfill multiple sustainable development targets, most prominently human development, poverty eradication and climate change mitigation, African countries need infrastructure that cover basic needs while at the same time promote industrialization and value creation. G20 countries can support African countries by: (1) aligning and cementing the G20 Agenda for Africa with African initiatives, SDGs and the Paris Agreement, (2) mitigating economic risks of climate change through supporting low carbon development pathways in Africa, (3) incentivizing low carbon development by phasing out subsidies and eventually putting a price on carbon and (4) creating and enabling a level playing field for low carbon technologies, which includes integrated strategies for de-risking renewable energy investments.

Description: Sufficiency is one important strategy for sustainable development. At an individual level, we need a better understanding of the relationship between sufficiency attitude and CO2 footprint. In this paper, we analyze sufficiency as a psychological determinant of low-carbon lifestyles and introduce an empirical measurement scale for individual sufficiency attitudes. Sufficiency aims at a total reduction of resource consumption, which is urgently needed to achieve our climate and sustainable development goals. This paper explores individual attitude towards a sufficiency-oriented lifestyle as a driver of a low carbon footprint. Survey data of 310 participants was analyzed to test whether individual sufficiency attitude manifests in people’s carbon footprint. The results provide evidence for this relationship but its strength varies between behavioral domains ‐ that is, heating, electricity, food consumption, everyday mobility, air travel. Potential structural and individual barriers to reducing CO2 emissions are discussed as possible factors that could explain differences between the behavioral domains. We argue that intrapersonal factors matter for sustainable lifestyles but that policy-making and structural change should complement and facilitate voluntary endeavors to achieve low-carbon lifestyles.

Description: Various geoengineering technologies that would deliberately alter the climate system have been proposed as a way to alleviate risks of global warming. Technologies that would shield incoming sunlight to cool the planet, so called solar radiation management (SRM), are particularly controversial. Considering insights from social studies of simulation modeling and research on expectations in science and technology, I argue that climate modeling has a central role in producing visions of SRM. I draw upon an empirical analysis of scientific research on SRM to examine how a creative play with technological ideas becomes possible through climate modeling. This enables scientists to project and study environmental impacts of speculative SRM methods in virtual experiments and to develop and refine ideas for adjusting sunlight. Hence, while climate models are used to improve scientific understandings of climate system behavior and to anticipate possible environmental impacts of SRM, they also become inventive tools, allowing scientists to envision novel ways of climate control and optimization. Given the importance of simulation studies to knowledge production on SRM, I critically reflect on the challenges that arise when visions about an engineered climate future are first and foremost produced in climate simulations.

Description: Mit der Neuauflage der Deutschen Nachhaltigkeitsstrategie hat die Bundesregierung die Wissenschaft zur Bildung einer Plattform aufgefordert, die systematisch in die Steuerungs-, Dialog- und Umsetzungsprozesse der Agenda 2030 und somit die neue Nachhaltigkeitsarchitektur eingebunden ist. Träger der Plattform sind die internationalen wissenschaftlichen Netzwerke Sustainable Development Solutions Network Germany (SDSN Germany), das Deutsche Komitee für Nachhaltigkeitsforschung in Future Earth (DKN Future Earth) sowie das Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS), das zusätzlich die Geschäftsstelle der Wissenschaftsplattform beherbergt. Die inhaltliche und operative Ausgestaltung der Arbeit der Plattform liegt in der Verantwortung des Lenkungskreises aus derzeit 26 Mitgliedern aus Wissenschaft, Wirtschaft und organisierter Zivilgesellschaft. Der Lenkungskreis formuliert das Arbeitsprogramm und initiiert Arbeitsprozesse sowie die Vernetzung mit weiteren Akteuren aus Wissenschaft, Politik, Wirtschaft und Zivilgesellschaft, um eine effektive wie auch repräsentative und international verankerte Plattform aufzubauen. Die Plattform wird auf Seiten der Bundesregierung von einem für alle Ressorts offenen Kreis begleitet, in dem zurzeit BMBF, BMUB, BMZ, BMEL sowie Bundeskanzleramt mitwirken. Die Wissenschaftsplattform Nachhaltigkeit 2030 wurde am 8. Mai 2017 mit der konstituierenden Sitzung ihres Lenkungskreises etabliert und im Rahmen des 13. BMBF-Forums für Nachhaltigkeit am 9. Mai 2017 der Öffentlichkeit vorgestellt.

Description: Wer eine CO2-Besteuerung fordert und gleichzeitig die Einkünfte zurück an die Bevölkerung geben will, statt sie zu investieren, schwächt die Wirkung des Instruments deutlich ab, argumentiert Johan Lilliestam vom Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS) in Potsdam in seinem Standpunkt. Wirkungsvoller seien zum Beispiel Änderungen des Strommarktdesigns und Infrastrukturprogramme, um klimaneutralen Technologien den Aufbruch aus ihren Nischen zu ermöglichen.

Description: New energies form new energy landscapes (Apostol, Palmer, Pasqualetti, Smardon, & Sullivan, 2016; Gailing & Leibenath, 2013). Energy carriers converge within space and open up leeway and scope for design. Different spaces are affected: offshore and onshore, plains and mountains, waters, volcanic areas, coastal regions, deserts, etc. Different energy sources and types of technology are used and integrated through grids. Grids are increasingly governed as smart energy systems equipped with smart meters and apps etc., linked with smart mobility.

Description: Hydrothermal carbonization (HTC) is an aqueous-phase route to produce carbon materials using biomass or biomass-derived precursors. In this paper, a comprehensive physicochemical and textural characterization of HTC materials obtained using four different precursors, namely, xylose, glucose, sucrose, and starch, is presented. The development of porosity in the prepared HTC materials as a function of thermal treatment (under an inert atmosphere) was specifically monitored using N2 and CO2 sorption analysis. The events taking place during the thermal treatment process were studied by a combined thermogravimetric/infrared (TGA-IR) measurement. Interestingly, these inexpensive biomass-derived carbon materials show good selectivity for CO2 adsorption over N2 (CO2/N2 selectivity of 20 at 273 K, 1 bar and 1:1 gas composition). Furthermore, the elemental composition, morphologies, degree of structural order, surface charge, and functional groups are also investigated.

Description: With our attitudes and behavior, which aim at promoting sustainable behavior, we face a temporal dilemma – a temporal conflict between short-term and long-term interests. Accordingly, psychological time is an essential variable in understanding how people decide between options of short-term self-interest, which can be experienced at present, and long-term common interest, such as sustainable development with an outcome that lies far in the future. Present feelings are often so powerful that considerations of future events are neglected. Individuals differ in their emphasis on present and future dimensions. A stronger future orientation and a mindful present orientation are positive predictors of sustainable behavior; hedonistic and impulsive present orientations are negative predictors. We discuss the concept of the balanced time perspective as the propensity to consciously switch among the time orientations of past, present, and future. Fitting with their overall psychological profile, individuals with a balanced time perspective might display a range of sustainable attitudes and behaviors.

Description: Die deutsche Energiewende wird in dem Beitrag als umkämpfter Prozess interpretiert. Mittels einer politökonomischen Analyseperspektive werden die komplexen Artikulationsverhältnisse von ökonomischen Entwicklungen, zivilgesellschaftlichen Auseinandersetzungen und staatlichen Politiken analysiert. Das zentrale Argument des Beitrags ist, dass in den letzten Jahren die Dynamiken hin zu einem regenerativen Energieregime im Strombereich abgebremst wurden. Damit hat sich der Charakter der Energiewende von einem stark umkämpften, bestehende Macht- und Herrschaftsverhältnisse in Frage stellenden Prozess hin zu einem Prozess des geordneten, im Rahmen des auf Exportmärkte ausgerichteten deutschen Modells eines „Koordinierten Kapitalismus“ verbleibenden Übergangs verschoben. Im Verkehrsbereich hingegen ist die Dominanz fossiler Energieträger ungebrochen. Die Potentiale und Restriktionen des Wandels hin zu einem post-fossilen Mobilitätsregime sind zu berücksichtigen, um ein umfassenderes Bild der Energietransformation zu zeichnen.

Description: The article interprets the German “Energiewende” as a contested process. The complex articulation of economic developments, civil society disputes and state policies are analyzed from a political-economy perspective. The central argument is that in recent years the dynamics towards a renewable energy regime in the electricity sector have been slowed down. This is accompanied by a shift of the character of the “Energiewende” from a highly contested process of questioning existing power structures to a process of an orderly and gradual transition, remaining within the framework of the German model of “Coordinated Capitalism”, which is geared towards export markets. In the transport sector, however, the dominance of fossil fuels remains unchanged. In order to draw a comprehensive picture of the energy transformation, the potentials and restrictions of the transformation towards a post-fossil mobility regime are discussed.

Description: The files include results to out study investigating the possibility for renewable electricity autarky in Europe. For each administrative unit on the continental, national, regional, and municipal levels these files include: * Name, country, population, current electricity demand, land cover statistics, shared coast with exclusive economic zone * Potential in terms of area [km2], installable capacity [MW], annual electricity yield [TWh]

Description: This paper proposes “making refuge” as a conceptual placeholder and an analytical rubric, a guiding ethos and praxis, for the engaged Buddhist aspiration of responding to the social, political, economic, and planetary crises facing the world. Making refuge is conceived as the work of building the conditions of trust and safety necessary for living and dying well together as co-inhabitants of diverse communities and habitats. The paper will explain the rationale for making refuge by connecting the dharmic understanding of dukkha with feminist conceptualizations of the body and vulnerability. This will chart some theoretical and methodological pathways for engaged Buddhism to further its liberatory aspirations in reciprocity with emergent movements in radical critical theory, contemplative studies, and social and ecological activism. The paper will also examine the effects of white supremacy in U.S. Buddhism through the framework of making refuge. This will demonstrate how political healing and restorative justice might be cultivated through a dispositional ethics that pays appropriate attention to the vulnerabilities facing oppressed people.

Description: US-Präsident Donald Trump möchte mit seinem „America First EnergyPlan“ die Wirtschaft ankurbeln, Arbeitsplätze schaffen und unabhängig von Energieimportenwerden. Durch einen neuen Fokus auf die Förderung fossiler Energieträger vollziehtTrump eine Abkehr von der Klima- und Energiepolitik der Obama-Administration.Die Wende hin zu einer nachhaltigeren Energieversorgung kann der Präsident so nichtaufhalten. Doch seine Energieagenda stellt durchaus ein Risiko für Klimaschutz und Wirtschaftdar. Sie hat Auswirkungen auf Forschung, Entwicklung und Investitionen im Bereicherneuerbare Energietechnologien und bedeutet eine Distanzierung von der internationalenGemeinschaft im Klimaschutz. US-Staaten wie Kalifornien verbleiben als Hoffnungsträgerfür die amerikanische Energiewende. Doch ihre Ambitionen werden sich noch immenssteigern müssen, um internationale Klimaschutzziele zu verwirklichen.

Description: The BEST PATHS project is focused on the development and demonstration of grid equipment suitable for bulk power transmission across Europe. This work summarises the different cable conductor designs envisioned during the first 2.5 years of the superconducting demonstrator, taking benefit of the improved performance of MgB2 wires produced by Columbus Superconductors. The results of extensive validation tests carried out at CERN on two cables manufactured by Nexans are also presented.

Description: Mit den im September 2015 von den Vereinten Nationen verabschiedeten Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) der Agenda 2030 wurden erstmals soziale und ökologische Nachhaltigkeitsziele systematisch verknüpft. Bei den sozialen Nachhaltigkeitszielen wurden ebenfalls erstmals auch die Industrieländer zum Adressaten und nicht ausschließlich die sogenannten Entwicklungsländer. Inwieweit verändern sich jedoch soziale und vor allem sozialpolitische Modernisierungsziele im Kontext der Nachhaltigkeitsperspektive? Lässt sich überhaupt von Sozialer Nachhaltigkeit sprechen und wenn ja, was ist damit genau gemeint? Genügen die unter dem Begriff sozial-ökologische Forschung und Politik formulierten Fragestellungen den komplexen Anforderungen der SDG und eines Programms zur Sozialen Nachhaltigkeit? Da hier berechtigte Zweifel bestehen, beauftragte das IASS im Sommer 2016 das ISÖ mit einer Studie zu 〉Soziale Nachhaltigkeit. Konzept und Operationalisierung〈, die im Frühjahr 2017 unter dem Titel 〉Soziale Nachhaltigkeit. Auf dem Weg zur Internalisierungsgesellschaft〈 im oekom Verlag erschien. Das gemeinsam von IASS und ISÖ am 2. November 2017 in Potsdam veranstaltete Symposium lotete anlässlich der Studie und ihrer Buchveröffentlichung die wissenschaftlichen und politischen Perspektiven des Konzepts Soziale Nachhaltigkeit aus. Diese Veröffentlichung enthält die zur Vorbereitung des Symposiums erstellten Beiträge.

Description: Lumbini, in southern Nepal, is a UNESCO world heritage site of universal value as the birthplace of Buddha. Poor air quality in Lumbini and surrounding regions is a great concern for public health as well as for preservation, protection and promotion of Buddhist heritage and culture. We present here results from measurements of ambient concentrations of key air pollutants (PM, BC, CO, O3) in Lumbini, first of its kind for Lumbini, conducted during an intensive measurement period of 3 months (April–June 2013) in the pre-monsoon season. The measurements were carried out as a part of the international air pollution measurement campaign; SusKat-ABC (Sustainable Atmosphere for the Kathmandu Valley – Atmospheric Brown Clouds). The main objective of this work is to understand and document the level of air pollution, diurnal characteristics and influence of open burning on air quality in Lumbini. The hourly average concentrations during the entire measurement campaign ranged as follows: BC was 0.3–30.0 µg m−3, PM1 was 3.6–197.6 µg m−3, PM2. 5 was 6.1–272.2 µg m−3, PM10 was 10.5–604.0 µg m−3, O3 was 1.0–118.1 ppbv and CO was 125.0–1430.0 ppbv. These levels are comparable to other very heavily polluted sites in South Asia. Higher fraction of coarse-mode PM was found as compared to other nearby sites in the Indo-Gangetic Plain region. The ΔBC ∕ ΔCO ratio obtained in Lumbini indicated considerable contributions of emissions from both residential and transportation sectors. The 24 h average PM2. 5 and PM10 concentrations exceeded the WHO guideline very frequently (94 and 85 % of the sampled period, respectively), which implies significant health risks for the residents and visitors in the region. These air pollutants exhibited clear diurnal cycles with high values in the morning and evening. During the study period, the worst air pollution episodes were mainly due to agro-residue burning and regional forest fires combined with meteorological conditions conducive of pollution transport to Lumbini. Fossil fuel combustion also contributed significantly, accounting for more than half of the ambient BC concentration according to aerosol spectral light absorption coefficients obtained in Lumbini. WRF-STEM, a regional chemical transport model, was used to simulate the meteorology and the concentrations of pollutants to understand the pollutant transport pathways. The model estimated values were ∼ 1. 5 to 5 times lower than the observed concentrations for CO and PM10, respectively. Model-simulated regionally tagged CO tracers showed that the majority of CO came from the upwind region of Ganges Valley. Model performance needs significant improvement in simulating aerosols in the region. Given the high air pollution level, there is a clear and urgent need for setting up a network of long-term air quality monitoring stations in the greater Lumbini region.

Description: Surface ozone is a secondary air pollutant produced during the atmospheric photochemical degradation of emitted volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the presence of sunlight and nitrogen oxides (NOx). Temperature directly influences ozone production through speeding up the rates of chemical reactions and increasing the emissions of VOCs, such as isoprene, from vegetation. In this study, we used an idealised box model with different chemical mechanisms (Master Chemical Mechanism, MCMv3.2; Common Representative Intermediates, CRIv2; Model for OZone and Related Chemical Tracers, MOZART-4; Regional Acid Deposition Model, RADM2; Carbon Bond Mechanism, CB05) to examine the non-linear relationship between ozone, NOx and temperature, and we compared this to previous observational studies. Under high-NOx conditions, an increase in ozone from 20 to 40 °C of up to 20 ppbv was due to faster reaction rates, while increased isoprene emissions added up to a further 11 ppbv of ozone. The largest inter-mechanism differences were obtained at high temperatures and high-NOx emissions. CB05 and RADM2 simulated more NOx-sensitive chemistry than MCMv3.2, CRIv2 and MOZART-4, which could lead to different mitigation strategies being proposed depending on the chemical mechanism. The increased oxidation rate of emitted VOC with temperature controlled the rate of Ox production; the net influence of peroxy nitrates increased net Ox production per molecule of emitted VOC oxidised. The rate of increase in ozone mixing ratios with temperature from our box model simulations was about half the rate of increase in ozone with temperature observed over central Europe or simulated by a regional chemistry transport model. Modifying the box model set-up to approximate stagnant meteorological conditions increased the rate of increase of ozone with temperature as the accumulation of oxidants enhanced ozone production through the increased production of peroxy radicals from the secondary degradation of emitted VOCs. The box model simulations approximating stagnant conditions and the maximal ozone production chemical regime reproduced the 2 ppbv increase in ozone per degree Celsius from the observational and regional model data over central Europe. The simulated ozone–temperature relationship was more sensitive to mixing than the choice of chemical mechanism. Our analysis suggests that reductions in NOx emissions would be required to offset the additional ozone production due to an increase in temperature in the future.

Description: This study analyses the employment impacts of different plans for expanding electricity generation in South Africa’s power sector; this was carried out in the context of the COBENEFITS1 project with the aim of assessing the co-benefits of a low-carbon energy transition in the country. Four scenarios for the future development of the electricity sector in South Africa were analysed: Council for Scientific and Industrial Research Least Cost planning scenario (CSIR_LC); Department of Environmental Affairs Rapid Decarbonisation scenario (DEA_RD); Integrated Resource Plan 2016 (IRP 2016); and Integrated Resource Plan Policy Adjusted scenario 2018 (IRP 2018).

Description: Die industrielle Produktion durchläuft aktuell einen erheblichen Transformationsprozess, ermöglicht durch die rasante Entwicklung der Informations- und Kommunikationstechnologien. Welche Rolle spielt die Industrie 4.0. für eine sozial-ökologische Entwicklung?

Description: Soll die Energiewende gelingen, muss jeder Einzelne einen Beitrag leisten. Privathaushalte müssen nicht nur Energie sparen, sondern ihren Verbrauch künftig auch stärker an die schwankende Einspeisung aus Wind- und Solarenergie anpassen. Eine Arbeitsgruppe des Akademienprojekts „Energiesysteme der Zukunft“ (ESYS) hat untersucht, wie sich Verbraucher motivieren lassen, ihr Verhalten dauerhaft zu ändern und ihren Energiebedarf zu reduzieren. Die Stellungnahme „Verbraucherpolitik für die Energiewende“ fasst die Ergebnisse zusammen. Ein zentrales Element sind zielgruppengerechte, gut verständliche Informationen und Beratungsangebote. Auch sogenannte „Nudges“ (sanfte „Stupser“) können Privathaushalte anregen, Energie nachhaltiger zu nutzen. Sieht man etwa auf der Stromrechnung, dass die Nachbarn im Durchschnitt weniger verbrauchen als man selbst, kann das zu sparsamerem Verhalten motivieren. Da es für Deutschland bisher wenige Studien zum „Nudging“ gibt, sollte die Wirksamkeit dieser Methode jedoch weiter erforscht werden. Beteiligen sich Verbraucher am Lastmanagement, tragen sie dazu bei, die schwankende Stromversorgung aus Wind und Sonne auszugleichen. Ein geeignetes Mittel wären zum Beispiel Lieferverträge mit dynamischer Preisgestaltung: Ist viel Strom im Netz, sinken die Preise, bei einem Engpass steigen sie. Voraussetzung dafür wäre eine intelligente Steuerungstechnik sowie die Bereitschaft der Verbraucher, einige ihrer Geräte wie Stromzähler und Kühlsysteme von außen „fernsteuern“ zu lassen. Mit Apps könnten sie zudem nicht nur ihren Stromverbrauch, sondern auch ihren Wärmebedarf bequem selbst anpassen und dadurch Energie sparen.

Description: PAH concentrations were measured in total suspended particle (TSP) samples collected from six sites along two south-north transects across the central Himalayas from April 2013 to March 2014. The annual average TSP and PAH (especially 5- and 6-ring compounds) concentrations were found to decrease noticeably northwards along both transects. At rural and urban sites, the TSP and PAH concentrations showed clear seasonal variations, with the lower concentrations around the mid-monsoon season and the higher values in the winter season. Meanwhile, at the remote sites (e.g., Nyalam and Zhongba), these pollutants generally remained constant throughout the year but with relatively higher levels during the pre-monsoon season. Both IndP/(IndP + BghiP) and Fla/(Fla + Pyr) ratios suggested that atmospheric PAHs from urban and rural sites were mainly associated with emissions from biomass burning, coal burning and petroleum combustion. However, the contribution of biomass burning increased at remote sites. Similar compositions of PAHs were found at three remote sites located on both sides of the Himalayas (Jomsom, Zhongba, and Nyalam), suggesting that the northern side of the Himalayas may be affected by anthropogenic emissions from the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) via long-range atmospheric transport. This work provides a database of PAHs in central Himalayas for further assessing environmental risk of air pollution in the remote regions.

Description: This policy brief makes three recommendations for strengthening international cooperation in support of a global energy transition.

Description: Known as "the Third Pole" (TP), the Tibetan Plateau and surrounding mountains hold the largest aggregate of glaciers outside the pole regions. Recent monitoring and projection indicated an accelerated glacier decline and increasing glacier runoff. The long-range transport of South Asian atmospheric pollutants, including light absorbing impurities (LAIs) such as black carbon (BC) and mineral dust (MD), can absorb the solar radiation in the atmosphere and reduce albedo after being deposited onto the cryosphere, thereby promoting glacier and snow melt. A coordinated atmospheric pollution monitoring network has been launched covering the TP with emphasis on trans-Himalayan transects since 2013. TSP were collected for 24h at an interval of 3-6 days. BC/OC, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and heavy metals were measured. Results reveal a consistent decrease in almost all analyzed parameters from south to north across the Himalayas. Geochemical signatures of carbonaceous aerosols indicate dominant sources of biomass burning and vehicle exhaust, in line with results of PAHs. Integrated analysis of satellite images and air mass trajectories suggest that the trans-boundary air pollution occurred episodically and concentrated in pre-monsoon seasons via upper air circulation, through-valley wind, and local convection. Simulation results showed that carbonaceous aerosols produced positive/negative shortwave radiative forcing in the atmosphere/ground surface. Aerosols increased surface air temperatures by 0.1-0.5℃ over the TP and decreased temperatures in South Asia during the monsoon season. Surface snow/ice samples were collected from benchmark glaciers to estimate the impacts of LAIs on glacier melt with model assistance. BC (37%) and MD (32%) contribute to the summer melting of Laohugou Glacier in the northern TP. MD (38%) contributed more glacier melt than BC (11%) on Zhadang Glacier in the southern TP. In the southeastern TP, BC and MD contribute to 30% of the total glacier melt, up to 350 mm w.e. yr-1. The monitoring network and ongoing studies point to trans-boundary pollution as an increasing stressor for the TP environment, and highlighted the link between atmospheric pollution and cryospheric changes as well as other surface ecosystems over high mountain regions.

Description: The "Berlin Air quality and Ecosystem Research: Local and long-range Impact of anthropogenic and Natural hydrocarbons" (BAERLIN2014) campaign was conducted during the 3 summer months (June–August) of 2014. During this measurement campaign, both stationary and mobile measurements were undertaken to address complementary aims. This paper provides an overview of the stationary measurements and results that were focused on characterization of gaseous and particulate pollution, including source attribution, in the Berlin–Potsdam area, and quantification of the role of natural sources in determining levels of ozone and related gaseous pollutants. Results show that biogenic contributions to ozone and particulate matter are substantial. One indicator for ozone formation, the OH reactivity, showed a 31 % (0.82 ± 0.44 s−1) and 75 % (3.7 ± 0.90 s−1) contribution from biogenic non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) for urban background (2.6 ± 0.68 s−1) and urban park (4.9 ± 1.0 s−1) location, respectively, emphasizing the importance of such locations as sources of biogenic NMVOCs in urban areas. A comparison to NMVOC measurements made in Berlin approximately 20 years earlier generally show lower levels today for anthropogenic NMVOCs. A substantial contribution of secondary organic and inorganic aerosol to PM10 concentrations was quantified. In addition to secondary aerosols, source apportionment analysis of the organic carbon fraction identified the contribution of biogenic (plant-based) particulate matter, as well as primary contributions from vehicles, with a larger contribution from diesel compared to gasoline vehicles, as well as a relatively small contribution from wood burning, linked to measured levoglucosan.

Description: Humans have a long history of mobility on a spectrum from voluntary migration to forced displacement in response to social, political and environmental change. While many migration drivers exist, climate change is likely to amplify the environmental drivers of migration. At least 1.5°C of warming above pre-industrial levels between 2030 and 2052 are projected if global warming continues to increase at the current rate. The associated impacts are diverse and include temperature and precipitation extremes in most inhabited regions and increased probability of drought and flood. Migration can be an important and useful adaptive response to climate impacts when it increases household resilience and reduces socio-economic vulnerabilities, and yet can also have negative health consequences. The climate–migration–health nexus entails complex interactions including the following: first, climate-related risks to health faced by migrants at all stages of the migration journey. Second, the impacts of migration itself on health with possible specific health implications of climate-related migration. This article provides a brief overview of climate-related migration, identifies climate hotspots where substantial migration and displacement are anticipated and explores the health implications of climate-related migration.

Description: The recognition of soils and their functions by the public and, in particular, the planning community isgenerally poor. However, conversion of soils to urban uses is occurring at an unprecedented rate dueto an increasing share of the population living in urban areas and changing lifestyles. Urban planners,developers and planning agencies allocate urban lands to varying uses but land use decisions aregenerally not based on soil information as urban growth is managed predominantly for economicdevelopment. However, urban areas must also deal with challenges such as demographic change,urban densification, climate change and infrastructure provision. Thus, managing urban sustainabilityhas to include ecological aside economic, cultural, and political dimensions. Urban developmentneeds to be managed to minimize negative impacts and maximize environmental quality. Policydecisions towards maximizing short-term economic benefits must be balanced by decisions towardssustainable use and management of urban soils as urban land use has long-term consequences. Therecognition of soils by the planning community can particularly be improved by highlighting the valueof urban soil functions for the well-being of urban dwellers. This approach was recommended at thedialogue session ’Urbanization: Challenges to Soil Management‘ during the first Global Soil Week2012 in Berlin, Germany. Further suggestions how to raise the awareness about urban soils and howto deal with challenges regarding their management will be presented.

Description: This volume explores the governance of the transforming Arctic from an international perspective. Leading and emerging scholars in Arctic research investigate the international causes and consequences of contemporary Arctic developments, and assess how both state and non-state actors respond to crucial problems for the global community. Long treated as a remote and isolated region, climate change and economic prospects have put the Arctic at the forefront of political agendas from the local to the global level, and this book tackles the variety of involved actors, institutional politics, relevant policy issues, as well as political imaginaries related to a globalizing Arctic. It covers new institutional forms of various stakeholder engagement on multiple levels, governance strategies to combat climate change that affect the Arctic region sooner and more strongly than other regions, the pros and cons of Arctic resource development for the region and beyond, and local and trans-boundary pollution concerns. Given the growing relevance of the Arctic to international environmental, energy and security politics, the volume helps to explain how the region is governed in times of global nexuses, multi-level politics and multi-stakeholderism.

Description: This paper discusses proposals for tabular standards in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. In particular, we focus on Keynes’ proposal for an international tabular standard (ITS) as the gold standard unravelled in the 1930s. The paper explains the origins of Keynes’ ITS proposal which pegged the value of an international reserve to a broad index of primary commodities, weighted in terms of their value in world production. We argue that the ITS should be viewed as an important and enduring component of Keynes’ ideal long-run vision for anchoring the international monetary system, even post-Bretton Woods.

Description: Im internationalen Umfeld werden Ausschreibungen zunehmend als Förderinstrument für erneuerbare Energiengenutzt. In dieser Fallstudie analysieren wir die brasilianischen Erfahrungen mit Ausschreibungen fürWindenergie im Zeitraum von 2009 bis 2015 hinsichtlich der Entwicklung der Auktionspreise, der Realisierungsratenund der Marktkonzentration. Methodisch liegen der Fallstudie eigene Daten- und Literaturanalysensowie Experteninterviews zugrunde.Die inflationsbereinigten Auktionspreise sind bis Ende 2012 um fast 50 % zurückgegangen und anschließendwieder auf fast 90 % des Preises der ersten Runde angestiegen. Die Preisrückgänge sind auf die zunehmendeErfahrung der Akteure und den steigenden Wettbewerb bei Projektierern, Investoren und Turbinenherstellernzurückzuführen. Beim Preisanstieg haben sowohl regulatorische Änderungen, beispielsweise eine Modifikationder Netzanschlussbedingungen, als auch externe Faktoren, zum Beispiel der Wertverlust des BrasilianischenReal gegenüber dem US-Dollar, eine Rolle gespielt.Nur 14 % der Windprojekte aus den ersten acht Ausschreibungsrunden sind fristgerecht realisiert worden.Als Ursachen werden ein verspäteter Netzanschluss, Verzögerungen bei Umweltverträglichkeitsprüfungen,Lieferengpässe bei Windenergieanlagen, die Insolvenz des Windturbinenherstellers IMPSA, verspätete Finanzierungszusagendurch die Brasilianische Entwicklungsbank BNDES und schlechtes Projektmanagement genannt.Die Anzahl der Projektabbrüche ist jedoch bis dato gering, sodass eine finale Realisierungsrate zwischen89 % und 98 % wahrscheinlich ist.Die Anzahl der Eigentümer von Windenergieprojekten ist von 16 auf 49 Akteure gestiegen. Der Marktanteil dergrößten fünf Eigentümer ist von knapp 60 % auf 37 % zurückgegangen. Das Verhältnis von präqualifizierter zubezuschlagter Leistung lag stets über fünf und der Herfindahl-Index deutet auf einen unkonzentrierten Markthin. Daraus lässt sich ableiten, dass ausreichend Wettbewerb für eine freie Preisbildung im Markt besteht. Beiden Eigentümern handelt es sich im Wesentlichen um große, finanzstarke Projektierer, Energieversorger oderInvestmentgesellschaften.Schlussfolgerungen aus den beschriebenen Erfahrungen:1. Die Auktionspreise sind stark von Faktoren außerhalb des Förderinstruments Ausschreibungen abhängig.2. Die Auktionspreise können trotz starken Wettbewerbs steigen.3. Viele externe Faktoren können die fristgerechte Realisierung der Projekte verhindern.4. Die Realisierungsdauer der bezuschlagten Projekte kann durch das Ausschreibungsdesign beeinflusst werden.5. Das Ausmaß von Projektabbrüchen in Brasilien wurde bisher überschätzt.6. Es herrscht ausreichend Wettbewerb für eine freie Preisbildung am brasilianischen Windenergiemarkt.7. Der brasilianische Windenergiemarkt besteht weitgehend aus großen, finanzstarken Akteuren.

Description: In four short meditations, approaches to time and the future are explored through both a time and futures lens. A compressed poetic form of expression is used to distil the essence of the processes involved. The shapes emerge in the writing and once discernable they begin to guide the choice of words. Theory becomes a playful activity that draws on a deep and extensive pool of time theory. The first meditation expresses the difficulty for conventional social science to engage with the future. The second depicts temporal relations of modernity that encompass features shared by humanity across the ages. The third piece explores time encoded in nature, money and society. The last meditation engages with approaches to sustainability and indicates the significant differences that arise with the respective standpoints of the present future and future present. It closes the circle back to the first meditation on disciplinary challenges presented by the temporal and engagement with future presents.

Description: Partnering for a Sustainable Ocean: The Role of Regional Ocean Governance in ImplementingSDG14 highlights the major role that regional ocean governance can play in theimplementation of SDG14. It assesses the mandates of different regional frameworks, showcasesexisting regional efforts contributing to the specific targets underpinning SDG14, andidentifies key contributions that regional initiatives can make to the overarching challengesof the 2030 Agenda. AcknowledgementsKey messages1. Regional cooperations are is essential for ocean sustainabilityRegional approaches to ocean governance make it possible for States and stakeholders tocooperate at an ecosystem scale and work together across sectors and national boundaries.2. Most of the SDG14 targets can be addressed through regional initiativesRegional approaches and instruments can play a key role in meeting most of the SDG14 targets,with particular relevance in the areas of marine pollution, sustainable ocean management,fisheries, conservation, and economic benefits for Small Island Developing States and LeastDeveloped Countries.3. Regional ocean governance is a driver for the development of integrated approachesRegional approaches can help advance ocean governance by bringing all relevant actorstogether, taking the interdependencies among SDG14 targets into account, and providingco-benefits for the other SDGs.4. Regional ocean governance efforts require greater support to overcome gaps and institutionalweaknesses.Regional cooperation is key to the success of SDG14 and the 2030 Agenda, and should befurther strengthened, including through capacity building and the development of regionalpartnerships.