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  • Articles  (238)
  • Articles: DFG German National Licenses  (238)
  • climate change  (127)
  • pollution  (77)
  • Canada
  • Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering  (238)
  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    International Journal of Radiation Applications & Instrumentation. Part C, 35 (1990), S. 248-252 
    ISSN: 1359-0197
    Keywords: Canada ; Clearances ; Food Industry ; Labelling
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Physics
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
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    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Resources Policy 10 (1984), S. 269-285 
    ISSN: 0301-4207
    Keywords: Canada ; Federal government ; Mineral policy
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
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  • 3
    Electronic Resource
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    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Resources Policy 12 (1986), S. 29-39 
    ISSN: 0301-4207
    Keywords: Canada ; Industrial restructuring ; Mineral policy
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
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  • 4
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Resources Policy 8 (1982), S. 59-64 
    ISSN: 0301-4207
    Keywords: Canada ; Investment return ; Nickel
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
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  • 5
    Electronic Resource
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    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Resources Policy 10 (1984), S. 31-36 
    ISSN: 0301-4207
    Keywords: Canada ; Tax ; Uranium
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
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  • 6
    Electronic Resource
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    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Resources Policy 9 (1983), S. 252-260 
    ISSN: 0301-4207
    Keywords: Australia ; Canada ; Uranium mining
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
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  • 7
    Electronic Resource
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    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Resources Policy 8 (1982), S. 109-116 
    ISSN: 0301-4207
    Keywords: Canada ; Nickel ; Resource rent
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
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  • 8
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    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Resources Policy 11 (1985), S. 17-24 
    ISSN: 0301-4207
    Keywords: Canada ; Natural resources ; manufacturing industry
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
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  • 9
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    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 83 (1994), S. 23-36 
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: climate change ; global precipitation ; global temperature ; global warming ; instrumental data
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
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  • 10
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    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 83 (1994), S. 95-111 
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: acidification ; agriculture ; climate change ; eutrophication ; greenhouse gases
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
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  • 11
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    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 83 (1994), S. 87-93 
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: artificial intelligence ; climate change ; modelling ; potato ; uncertainty
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
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  • 12
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    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 83 (1994), S. 237-243 
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: climate change ; drought ; forest distribution ; forest production ; temperate forests
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
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  • 13
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    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 83 (1994), S. 55-61 
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: Canada ; biospheric feedback ; carbon cycle ; climate change ; fire
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
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  • 14
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    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 83 (1994), S. 37-43 
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: Europe ; climate change ; impact ; medieval
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
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  • 15
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    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 84 (1994), S. 159-166 
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: children ; dust ; lead ; pollution ; soil
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
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  • 16
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    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 83 (1994), S. 245-250 
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: GIS ; climate change ; moisture ; soil
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
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  • 17
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    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Marine Policy 8 (1984), S. 2-15 
    ISSN: 0308-597X
    Keywords: Canada ; Law of the Sea ; Seabed mining
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Political Science , Law
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  • 18
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    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Marine Policy 9 (1985), S. 90-107 
    ISSN: 0308-597X
    Keywords: Boundary delimitation ; Canada ; USA
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Political Science , Law
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  • 19
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    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Marine Policy 7 (1983), S. 175-196 
    ISSN: 0308-597X
    Keywords: Canada ; Law of the sea ; Newfoundland
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Political Science , Law
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  • 20
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    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Marine Policy 8 (1984), S. 323-329 
    ISSN: 0308-597X
    Keywords: Canada ; Law of the Sea ; Newfoundland
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Political Science , Law
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  • 21
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    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Marine Policy 6 (1982), S. 219-235 
    ISSN: 0308-597X
    Keywords: Canada ; Fisheries ; Foreign relations
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Political Science , Law
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  • 22
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    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Marine Policy 9 (1985), S. 108-119 
    ISSN: 0308-597X
    Keywords: Canada ; International Law ; Marine pollution
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Political Science , Law
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  • 23
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    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Marine Policy 7 (1983), S. 302-312 
    ISSN: 0308-597X
    Keywords: Canada ; Law of the sea ; Pollution
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Political Science , Law
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  • 24
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    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Marine Policy 8 (1984), S. 259-270 
    ISSN: 0308-597X
    Keywords: Environmental protection ; North Sea ; pollution
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Political Science , Law
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  • 25
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: Risk perceptions ; climate change ; knowledge ; environmental beliefs
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The research reported here examines the relationship between risk perceptions and willingness to address climate change. The data are a national sample of 1225 mail surveys that include measures of risk perceptions and knowledge tied to climate change, support for voluntary and government actions to address the problem, general environmental beliefs, and demographic variables. Risk perceptions matter in predicting behavioral intentions. Risk perceptions are not a surrogate for general environmental beliefs, but have their own power to account for behavioral intentions. There are four secondary conclusions. First, behavioral intentions regarding climate change are complex and intriguing. People are neither “nonbelievers” who will take no initiatives themselves and oppose all government efforts, nor are they “believers” who promise both to make personal efforts and to vote for every government proposal that promises to address climate change. Second, there are separate demographic sources for voluntary actions compared with voting intentions. Third, recognizing the causes of global warming is a powerful predictor of behavioral intentions independent from believing that climate change will happen and have bad consequences. Finally, the success of the risk perception variables to account for behavioral intentions should encourage greater attention to risk perceptions as independent variables. Risk perceptions and knowledge, however, share the stage with general environmental beliefs and demographic characteristics. Although related, risk perceptions, knowledge, and general environmental beliefs are somewhat independent predictors of behavioral intentions.
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  • 26
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 6 (1992), S. 69-80 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Hydrology ; global circulation models ; statistics ; climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Many researchers use outputs from large-scale global circulation models of the atmosphere to assess hydrological and other impacts associated with climate change. However, these models cannot capture all climate variations since the physical processes are imperfectly understood and are poorly represented at smaller regional scales. This paper statistically compares model outputs from the global circulation model of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory to historical data for the United States' Laurentian Great Lakes and for the Emba and Ural River basins in the Commonwealth of Independent States (C.I.S.). We use maximum entropy spectral analysis to compare model and data time series, allowing us to both assess statistical predictabilities and to describe the time series in both time and frequency domains. This comparison initiates assessments of the model's representation of the real world and suggests areas of model improvement.
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  • 27
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    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Energy Economics 11 (1989), S. 105-118 
    ISSN: 0140-9883
    Keywords: Canada ; Interregional electricity trade ; Linear programming model
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
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  • 28
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    Springer
    Natural hazards 3 (1984), S. 69-86 
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Keywords: Red tides ; dinoflagellates ; marine hazards ; coastal waters ; St Lawrence Estuary ; Bay of Fundy ; Canada
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Records of massive fish kills and paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP) in Europe and North America go back to the 17th century. But, it was not until the 1940s when the relationship between PSP, red tide and toxic dinoflagellateGonyaulax was established. Recent records show that PSP and related poisons caused by toxic dinoflagellates in coastal waters and estuaries, are a world-wide problem. Diarrhetic shellfish poisoning (DSP) and neurotoxic poisoning (NSP), believed earlier as bacterial or viral infections are now shown to be caused by other toxic dinoflagellates such asDinophysis. The shellfish most often involved in the poisoning are mussels and clams. Other dinoflagellates,Gyrodinium, occasionally cause massive fish kills in vast coastal areas, resulting in fishery and economic losses. Factors promoting toxic dinoflagellate bloom development and PSP/DSP outbreaks are not fully understood. In previous studies, temperature was considered as the principal factor influencing dinoflagellate blooming. Recent studies showed that other factors such as salinity, sunlight, freshwater runoff and water stability are also important. Pollution from land drainage and sewage discharge in inshore waters were also implicated. Current knowledge indicates that although chemical and biotic factors are important forin-situ growth of dinoflagellate cells, convergence by thermal and tidal fronts is essential for cell accumulation and bloom development. Advances in physical oceanographic research, modelling and remote sensing enabled the detection of fronts and bordering eddies with high precision. There is a potential for an increased use of these technological advances in predicting and monitoring the bloom development. The present paper overviews the history and distribution of toxic dinoflagellates, and the physical factors influencing bloom development and PSP/DSP outbreaks. Future research needs to improve the predictability and control of this world-wide hazard are also discussed.
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  • 29
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    Natural hazards 21 (2000), S. 225-245 
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Keywords: risk assessment ; emergency preparedness ; legislative measures ; flood prevention and mitigation ; forecasting and warning ; control structure ; public participation ; Canada ; Red River Valley
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The prevention and/or mitigation offlood disasters requires continual research, numerouscapital investment decisions, and high-qualitymaintenance and modifications of flood-controlstructures. In addition, institutional and privatepreparedness is needed. The experience offlood-control in North America has shown mixedoutcomes: while flood frequency has declined duringthe last few decades, the economic losses havecontinued to rise. Recent catastrophic floods havealso been linked to major structural interventions inthe region. The flood diversions may cause harmfuleffects upon the floodplain inhabitants by influencingflood levels in areas which are not normallyflood-prone. The increasing vulnerability of thefloodplain inhabitants poses new challenges and raisesquestions concerning the existing risk assessmentmethods, institutional preparedness and responses todisaster-related public emergencies, and local-levelpublic involvement in flood mitigation efforts. In the context of the catastrophic 1997 floods of theRed River Valley, Manitoba, Canada, this researchfocuses on two aspects of flood-related emergencygovernance and management: (i) the functions andeffectiveness of control structures, and (ii) theroles, responsibilities and effectiveness oflegislative and other operational measures. The studyconcludes that the flood-loss mitigation measures,both in terms of effects of control structures andinstitutional interventions for emergency evacuation,were not fully effective for ensuring the well-beingand satisfaction of floodplain inhabitants. Althoughorganizational preparedness and mobilization to copewith the 1997 flood emergency was considerable, theirsuccess during the onset of the flood event waslimited. Lack of communication and understandingbetween institutions, a reluctance to implementup-to-date regulations, and minimal publicparticipation in the emergency decision-making processall contributed to the difficulties experienced byfloodplain inhabitants.
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  • 30
    ISSN: 1572-9729
    Keywords: fire ; climate change ; boreal forest ; stream ; sulfate ; acidity ; watershed
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Abstract In a boreal forest catchment in the Experimental Lakes Area in northwestern Ontario, wildfire caused an increase in the concentrations of strong acid anions and base cations of the stream. In the naturally base-poor Northwest (NW) Subbasin, a 1980 wildfire caused exports of strong acid anions to increase more than export of base cations, causing a 2.5 fold increase in the acidity of the stream. Mean annual stream pH declined from 5.15 prior to fire to 4.76 two years after fire. Acid-neutralizing capacity (ANC), calculated as the difference between total base cations and strong acid anions, decreased to 20% of pre-fire values. Sulfate and chloride were the strong acid anions responsible for the decline in ANC, increasing four-fold. While nitrate increased eleven-fold, concentrations were too low to significantly affect ANC. There was a significant correlation between weekly sulfate concentration and base cation concentration (r 2 = 0.83) in the two years after fire. Recovery of ANC was caused by the more rapid decline in concentration of sulfate than by changes in base cations. Drought produced a similar but weaker response than fire, with increased sulfate concentrations and decreased stream pH. Climatic warming that increases drought and fire frequency would have effects that mimic the impacts of acidic precipitation (i.e. higher sulfate concentrations and acidic stream waters). Areas which have higher concentrations of stored S from past acid precipitation or have large areas of peatlands in the watershed may have aggravated losses of S and H+ after drought and fire.
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  • 31
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    Environmental management 15 (1991), S. 195-204 
    ISSN: 1432-1009
    Keywords: Organochlorines ; Pulp mills ; Environmental law ; Canada
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Organochlorines are a group of chemicals including dioxins and furans, at least some of which are highly toxic to humans. Organochlorines are formed as a byproduct of the chlorine bleaching process in pulp mills, as well as in other ways. Current federal and provincial environmental protection legislation in Canada is too general to adequately deal with the problem of organochlorine discharge. In Sweden and Germany strict new guidelines have been set for the discharge of organochlorines; strict guidelines are also planned for Alberta. The author recommends that new regulations, dealing specifically with organochlorine discharge, be promulgated under the new Canadian Environmental Protection Act. The new regulations should apply equally to all pulp mills. Strict enforcement, through cooperation of federal and provincial authorities, is also advised.
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  • 32
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    Environmental management 18 (1994), S. 841-854 
    ISSN: 1432-1009
    Keywords: Ecological risk assessment/management ; Pesticide registration ; Aquatic/terrestrial plants ; Regulatory guidelines ; Canada
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The approach developed by Environment Canada to assess risk to aquatic and terrestrial plants in nontarget habitats potentially exposed to pesticides evaluated for registration is described. An anonymous sample of pesticide submissions is used to illustrate the approach and to examine its merits and limitations in relation to test species, response variability, testing protocols, ecological relevance, and comparability with other regulatory agencies. Future directions are identified, particularly in relation to impending nontarget-plant testing guidelines for pesticide registration in Canada. This approach incorporates some of the latest research and developments in the field of risk assessment for plants. The novelty of this approach also lies in the use of the plant screening data routinely generated by chemical pesticide companies, which is intended to provide a maximum amount of information to evaluators at minimal increment cost to registrants. The proposed approach can serve as a basis for guideline development and modernization for other jurisdictions.
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  • 33
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    Environmental management 10 (1986), S. 321-330 
    ISSN: 1432-1009
    Keywords: Environmental disputes ; Forest management ; Delphi method ; Canada ; Spruce budworm
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Environmental disputes, in many countries, have taken on a ritualistic character. Their persistence, even after prolonged analysis and debate, suggests that they result from ideological rather than factual differences. Since no single ideological position holds a monopoly on the truth, effective environmental management would seem to require an integration of views, the problem being how to achieve this. One approach to this problem is illustrated in this article. Two factions in the spruce budworm dispute in New Brunswick, Canada, were engaged in a mediation exercise using the Delphi method. Details of the design and execution of this form of mediation are provided, together with an evaluation of the Delphi's effectiveness in this context.
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    Environmental management 17 (1993), S. 587-600 
    ISSN: 1432-1009
    Keywords: Cumulative environmental change ; Cumulative effects ; Cumulative effects assessment ; Cumulative impact analysis ; Environmental impact assessment ; Canada
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Cumulative environmental change or cumulative effects may result from the additive effect of individual actions of the same nature or the interactive effect of multiple actions of a different nature. This article reviews conceptual frameworks of cumulative environmental change and describes analytical and institutional approaches to cumulative effects assessment (CEA). A causal model is a common theoretical construct, although the frameworks vary in their emphasis on different components of the model. Two broad approaches to CEA are distinguished: one scientific and the other planning oriented. These approaches should not be interpreted as competing paradigms but rather different interpretations of the scope of CEA. Each approach can provide a distinct but complementary contribution to the analysis, assessment, and management of cumulative effects. A comparison of the institutional and legislative response to CEA in Canada and the United States shows that Canada is following the American example of incorporating the analysis and assessment of cumulative effects into regulatory actions and administrative procedures that also govern environmental impact assessment.
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    Environmental management 4 (1980), S. 21-25 
    ISSN: 1432-1009
    Keywords: Environmental impact assessment ; Geographic information system ; Land use capabilities ; Canada ; Glengowan Dam
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The analytical structure of environmental impact assessment is continually changing as the applicability of established techniques from other fields and the development of novel methods become known. This paper illustrates the applicability of using existing data bases, through a geographic information system, for theex ante evaluation of land use disruption. More specifically, the Canada Geographic Information System was employed to retrieve, to analyze, and to produce land capability statistics and land use maps for the proposed Glengowan dam and reservoir.
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    Environmental management 4 (1980), S. 157-163 
    ISSN: 1432-1009
    Keywords: Grab and composite sampling ; sample mean and variance ; economics ; regulations ; pollution
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Effluent subsamples are usually aggregated into flow or time proportional samples before analysis. Although this provides information on average process conditions, that on process variability is lost by compositing. Fisher's information is defined and used to estimate the loss due to compositing. The results of simulations based on parameters derived from actual waste streams support the fact that random grabs serve as well as composite samples for monitoring purposes. These findings favor changes in regulatory practice to allow compliance to be demonstrated by grab sample averages. Reporting requirements based on moving averages are shown to be inferior to those based on averages taken over nonoverlapping time periods.
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  • 37
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    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 1539-1550 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: acidification ; air pollution impacts ; climate change ; global change ; integrated modeling ; sulfur deposition
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper presents one of the first integrated analyses of acidification and climate change on a geographically-detailed basis, and the first linkage of integrated models for acid deposition (RAINS) and for climate change (IMAGE 2). Emphasis in this paper is on Europe. Trends in driving forces of emissions are used to compute anthropogenic SO2 emissions in 13 world regions. These emissions are translated into regional patterns of sulfur deposition in Europe and global patterns of sulfate aerosols using source-receptor matrices. Changes in climate are then computed based on changes in sulfate and greenhouse gases. Finally, we compute ecosystem areas affected by acid deposition and climate change based on exceedances of critical loads and changes in potential vegetation. Using this framework, information from global and regional integrated models can be used to link sulfur emissions with both their global and regional consequences. Preliminary calculations indicate that the size of European area affected by climate change in 2100 (58%) will be about the same as that affected by acid deposition in 1990. By the mid 21st century, about 14% of Europe's area may be affected by both acid deposition and climate change. Also, reducing sulfur emissions in Europe will have both the desirable impact of reducing the area affected by acid deposition, and the undesirable impact of enhancing climate warming in Europe and thus increasing the area affected by climate change. However, for the scenarios in this paper, the desirable impact of reducing sulfur emissions greatly outweighs its undesirable impact.
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  • 38
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    Environmental and resource economics 10 (1997), S. 267-284 
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: Laffont-Tirole model ; tax generation ; tax schemes ; pollution ; regulator
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract This paper reinterprets the Laffont-Tirole model of regulation under asymmetric information to cover the case of pollution control. The asymmetry of information concerns the firm's cost of lowering its pollution. The regulator has three objectives: Ensuring an efficient abatement level, generating 'green taxes' and securing the survival of the firm. We show that when optimal abatement is important relative to tax generation, the regulator cannot use the policy of offering the firm a set of linear tax schemes from which to choose. By contrast, this policy is optimal in the Laffont-Tirole model under certain not very restrictive assumptions. We proceed to establish a simple rule for when to shut-down inefficient types. In an example with specific functional forms, we derive the optimal tax function both analytically and graphically. We show the effect on the optimal tax system of a change in a technological parameter.
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  • 39
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: afforestation ; climate change ; intersectoral ; land-use change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract A model of product and land markets in U.S. forest and agricultural sectors is used to examine the private forest management, land use, and market implications of carbon sequestration policies implemented in a" least social cost" fashion. Results suggest: policy-induced land use changes may generate compensating land use shifts through markets; land use shifts to meet policy targets need not be permanent; implementation of land use and management changes in a smooth or regular fashion over time may not be optimal; and primary forms of adjustment to meet carbon policy targets involve shifting of land from agriculture to forest and more intensive forest management in combinations varying with the policy target.
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  • 40
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: afforestation ; climate change ; intersectoral ; land-use change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract A model of product and land markets in U.S. forest and agricultural sectors is used to examine the private forest management, land use, and market implications of carbon sequestration policies implemented in a “least social cost” fashion. Results suggest: policy-induced land use changes may generate compensating land use shifts through markets; land use shifts to meet policy targets need not be permanent; implementation of land use and management changes in a smooth or regular fashion over time may not be optimal; and primary forms of adjustment to meet carbon policy targets involve shifting of land from agriculture to forest and more intensive forest management in combinations varying with the policy target.
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  • 41
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    Integrated assessment 1 (2000), S. 21-36 
    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Keywords: integrated assessment ; climate change ; regional sustainability
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Cohen et al. [16] suggest that in order to explore ways to bring climate change (CC) and sustainable development (SD) research together, it is necessary to develop more heuristic tools that can involve resource users and other stakeholders. In this respect, this paper focuses on methodological development in research to study climate change impacts and regional sustainable development (RSD). It starts with an introduction of an integrated land assessment framework (ILAF) which is part of the integrated phase of the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS) in Canada. The paper then provides some articulation on how the integrated approach was applied in the Mackenzie Basin to show implications of climate change for RSD.
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  • 42
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    Environmental and resource economics 8 (1996), S. 129-140 
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: climate change ; ambiguity ; optimal control
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The probabilities associated with global warming damage are likely to be continuously revised in the light of new information. Such revisions of probability are the defining characteristic of ambiguity, as opposed to risk. This paper examines how climate change ambiguity may affect optimal greenhouse gas emission strategies, via the decision maker's attitude towards anticipated changes of damage probabilities. Two conceptualizations of ambiguity are distinguished, according to the emphasis placed on the ambiguity of priors or on the ambiguity of news, respectively. It is shown that the way in which ambiguity is viewed and the attitude taken towards it have a substantial influence on the optimal emission trajectory.
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  • 43
    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Keywords: participatory integrated assessment ; climate change ; low energy society
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Within the CLEAR project a new approach to integrated assessment modelling has been developed for the participatory integrated assessment of regional climate change involving citizens' focus groups. The climate change decision problem was structured by focusing separately on climate impacts and mitigation options. The attempt was made to link the different scales of the problem from the individual to the global level. The abstract topic of climate change was related to options on the level of a citizen's individual lifestyle. The option of a low energy society was emphasised in order to embed the climate change decision problem in a wider range of societal concerns. Special emphasis was given to the characterisation and communication of uncertainties. The chosen approach allows different kinds of uncertainties in one framework to be addressed. The paper concludes with a summary of the experience made, and recommendations for the use of models in participatory integrated assessments.
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  • 44
    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Keywords: CLEAR ; natural climate variability ; climate change ; atmosphere ; ocean
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Long-term variability in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic thermohaline ocean circulation (THC) are both shaping the European climate on time scales of decades and longer. Possible linear and non-linear changes in the characteristics of these natural climate modes due to global warming are an important source of uncertainty in long-term regional projections of future climate changes.
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  • 45
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    Integrated assessment 1 (2000), S. 307-320 
    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Keywords: climate change ; ecological impact assessment ; alpine and subalpine belts ; plant distribution ; statistical modeling ; local scale ; GIS ; GLM ; Swiss Alps
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The potential ecological impact of ongoing climate change has been much discussed. High mountain ecosystems were identified early on as potentially very sensitive areas. Scenarios of upward species movement and vegetation shift are commonly discussed in the literature. Mountains being characteristically conic in shape, impact scenarios usually assume that a smaller surface area will be available as species move up. However, as the frequency distribution of additional physiographic factors (e.g., slope angle) changes with increasing elevation (e.g., with few gentle slopes available at higher elevation), species migrating upslope may encounter increasingly unsuitable conditions. As a result, many species could suffer severe reduction of their habitat surface, which could in turn affect patterns of biodiversity. In this paper, results from static plant distribution modeling are used to derive climate change impact scenarios in a high mountain environment. Models are adjusted with presence/absence of species. Environmental predictors used are: annual mean air temperature, slope, indices of topographic position, geology, rock cover, modeled permafrost and several indices of solar radiation and snow cover duration. Potential Habitat Distribution maps were drawn for 62 higher plant species, from which three separate climate change impact scenarios were derived. These scenarios show a great range of response, depending on the species and the degree of warming. Alpine species would be at greatest risk of local extinction, whereas species with a large elevation range would run the lowest risk. Limitations of the models and scenarios are further discussed.
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  • 46
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1996), S. 139-165 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: Adaptation ; agriculture ; agroforestry ; climate change ; drought ; ecological degradation ; factor bias ; Senegal ; sustainability ; social relations
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract The ongoing drought in the Sahel region of West Africa highlights the vulnerability of food-producing systems to climate change and variability. Adaptation to climate should therefore increase the sustainability of agriculture under a long-term drought. Progress towards sustainability and adaptation in the the Senegal River Basin is hampered by an existing set of social and ecological relationships that define the control over the means of production and how people interact with their environment. These relationships are sensitive to the technological inputs and the administration of food production, or the factor bias in the different policy alternatives for rural development. One option is based on state-controlled, irrigated plantations to provide rice (Oryza) for the capital, Dakar. This policy emphasizes a top-down management approach, mechanized agriculture and a reliance on external inputs which strengthens the relationships introduced during the colonial period. A time series decomposition of the annual flow in the Senegal River at Bakel in Senegal suggests that water resources availability has been substantially curtailed since 1960, and a review of the water resources budget or availability in the basin suggests that this policy's food production system is not sustainable under the current climate of the basin. Under these conditions, this program is exacerbating existing problems of landscape degradation and desertification, which increases rural poverty. A natural resource management policy offers two adaptation strategies that favour decentralized management and a reduction of external inputs. The first alternative, “Les Perimetres Irrigués”, emphasizes village-scale irrigation, low water consumption cereal crops and traditional socio-political structures. The second alternative emphasizes farm-level irrigation and agro-forestry projects to redress the primary effects of desertification. The water requirements of both the rice import substitution program and the natural resource management program are calculated. A water resources simulation model/optimization analysis using dynamic programming is used to compare these two alternatives to the rice import substitution programs. Results indicate that the natural resource management policy could potentially bring a large area into production while using far less water than the rice import substitution program. The natural resource management policy, in particular the second alternative with its emphasis on individual ownership and ecological rehabiliation, defines a different set of social and ecological relationships that appear to enhance the sustainability of food production under a long-term drought.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 2 (1997), S. 19-44 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: adaptation ; Africa ; agriculture ; climate change ; vulnerability ; water
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract The intersection of present vulnerability and the prospect of climate change in Africa warrants proactive action now to reduce the risk of large-scale, adverse impacts. The process of planning adaptive strategies requires a systematic evaluation of priorities and constraints, and the involvement of stakeholders. An overview of climate change in Africa and case studies of impacts for agriculture and water underlie discussion of a typology of adaptive responses that may be most effective for different stakeholders. The most effective strategies are likely to be to reduce present vulnerability and to enhance a broad spectrum of capacity in responding to environmental, resource and economic perturbations. In some cases, such as design of water systems, an added risk factor should be considered.
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  • 48
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 2 (1997), S. 19-44 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: adaptation ; Africa ; agriculture ; climate change ; vulnerability ; water
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract The intersection of present vulnerability and the prospect of climate change in Africa warrants proactive action now to reduce the risk of large-scale, adverse impacts. The process of planning adaptive strategies requires a systematic evaluation of priorities and constraints, and the involvement of stakeholders. An overview of climate change in Africa and case studies of impacts for agriculture and water underlie discussion of a typology of adaptive responses that may be most effective for different stakeholders. The most effective strategies are likely to be to reduce present vulnerability and to enhance a broad spectrum of capacity in responding to environmental, resource and economic perturbations. In some cases, such as design of water systems, an added risk factor should be considered.
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  • 49
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 2 (1997), S. 267-283 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: Canada ; Canadian forest sector carbon budget ; disturbances ; fire emissions ; greenhouse gas inventory methodology ; IPCC guidelines
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has developed guidelines to standardize the international reporting of greenhouse gas emissions and removals by signatory nations of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. With regard to forest sector carbon fluxes, the IPCC guidelines require only that those fluxes directly associated with human activities (i.e., harvesting and land-use change) be reported. In Canada, the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS2) has been used to assess carbon fluxes from the entire forest sector. This model accounts for carbon fluxes associated with both anthropogenic and natural disturbances, such as wild fires and insects. We combined model results for the period 1985 to 1989 with additional data to compile seven different national carbon flux inventories for the forest sector. These inventories incorporate different system components under a variety of seemingly plausible assumptions, some of which are encouraged refinements to the default flux inventory described in the IPCC guidelines. The resulting estimated net carbon fluxes varied from a net removal of 185,000 kt carbon per year of the inventory period to a net emission of 89,000 kt carbon per year. Following the default procedures in the IPCC guidelines, while using the best available national data, produced an inventory with a net removal of atmospheric carbon. Adding the effect of natural disturbances to that inventory reversed the sign of the net flux resulting in a substantial emission. Including the carbon fluxes associated with root biomass in the first inventory increased the magnitude of the estimated net removal. The variability of these results emphasizes the need for a systems approach in constructing a flux inventory. We argue that the choice of which fluxes to include in the inventory should be based on the importance of these fluxes to the overall carbon budget and not on the perceived ease with which flux estimates can be obtained. The results of this analysis also illustrate two specific points. Even those Canadian forests which are most free from direct human interactions—forests in which no commercial harvesting occurs—are not in equilibrium, and their contribution to national carbon fluxes should be included in the reported flux inventory. Moreover, those forest areas that are subject to direct management are still substantially impacted by natural disturbances. The critical effect of inventory methodology and assumptions on inventory results has important ramifications for efforts to “monitor” and “verify” programs aimed at mitigating global carbon emissions.
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  • 50
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; CO2 ; carbondioxide ; integrated assessment ; MiniCAM ; LEESS ; top down ; bottom up ; sulfor ; energy ; emissions mitigation ; energy technology ; advanced energy technologies
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract We report results from the application of an integrated assessment model, MiniCAM 1.0. The model is employed to explore the full range of climate change implications of the successful development of cost effective, advanced, energy technologies. These technologies are shown to have a profound effect on the future magnitude and rate of anthropogenic climate change. We find that the introduction of assumptions developed by a group of ‘bottom-up’ modelers for the LEESS scenarios into a ‘top-down’ model, the Edmonds-Reilly-Barns Model, leads to ‘top down’ emissions trajectories similar to those of the LEESS. The cumulative effect of advanced energy technologies is to reduce annual emissions from fossil fuel use to levels which stabilize atmospheric concentrations below 550 ppmv. While all energy technologies play roles, the introduction of advanced biomass energy production technology is particularly important. The consideration of all greenhouse related anthropogenic emissions, and in particular sulfur dioxide, is found to be important. We find that the consideration of sulfur dioxide emissions coupled to rapid reductions in carbon dioxide emissions leads to higher global mean temperatures prior to 2050 than in the reference case. This result is due to the short-term cooling impact of sulfate aerosols, which dominates the long-term warming impact of CO2 and CH4 in the years prior to 2050. We also show that damage calculations which use only mean global temperature and income may be underestimating damages by up to a factor of five. Disaggregating income reduces this to a factor of two, still a major error. Finally, the role of the discount rate is shown to be extraordinarily important to technology preference.
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  • 51
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: climate change ; biogeophysical feedbacks ; geographically explicit global C cycle model ; CO2 fertilization ; soil respiration ; land cover change
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract A Terrestrial C Cycle model that is incorporated in the Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE 2.0) is described. The model is a geographically explicit implementation of a model that simulates the major C fluxes in different compartments of the terrestrial biosphere and between the biosphere and the atmosphere. Climatic parameters, land cover and atmospheric C concentrations determine the result of the dynamic C simulations. The impact of changing land cover patterns, caused by anthropogenic activities (shifting agriculture, de- and afforestation) and climatic change are modeled implicitly. Feedback processes such as CO2 fertilization and temperature effects on photosynthesis, respiration and decomposition are modeled explicitly. The major innovation of this approach is that the consequences of climate change are taken into account instantly and that their results can be quantified on a global medium-resolution grid. The objectives of this paper are to describe the C cycle model in detail, present the linkages with other parts of the IMAGE 2.0 framework, and give an array of different simulations to validate and test the robustness of this modeling approach. The computed global net primary production (NPP) for the terrestrial biosphere in 1990 was 60.6 Gt C a−1, with a global net ecosystem production (NEP) of 2.4 Gt C a−1. The simulated C flux as result from land cover changes was 1.1 Gt C a−1, so that the terrestrial biosphere in 1990 acted as a C sink of 1.3 Gt C a−1. Global phytomass amounted 567.5 Gt C and the dead biomass pool was 1517.7 Gt C. IMAGE 2.0 simulated for the period 1970–2050 a global average temperature increase of 1.6 °C and a global average precipitation increase of 0.1 mm/day. The CO2 concentration in 2050 was 522.2 ppm. The computed NPP for the year 2050 is 82.5 Gt C a−1, with a NEP of 8.1 Gt C a−1. Projected land cover changes result in a C flux of 0.9 Gt C a−1, so that the terrestrial biosphere will be a strong sink of 7.2 Gt C a−1. The amount of phytomass hardly changed (600.7 Gt C) but the distribution over the different regions had. Dead biomass increased significantly to 1667.2 Gt C.
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  • 52
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    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 1569-1574 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: synoptic circulation ; principal components analysis ; air pollution ; climate change ; classification
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract A classification of atmospheric circulation was derived using principal components analysis (PCA) of daily sea level pressure over a 10 year period. Correlation coefficients of up to 0.65 were obtained between the individual principal component loadings and monthly means of gas and precipitation ion concentrations for a Scottish and a Norwegian station from the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) network. The mean synoptic patterns of months predicted to have high or low gas and ion concentrations from their component loadings agreed well with previous work. High concentrations occur frequently with southerly flow or anticyclonic conditions, and low concentrations with westerly and northwesterly flow. We conclude that the PCA classification is a sensible method to use to derive circulation pattern-pollutant relationships, and is an encouraging first step to use the general circulation model (GCM) projections of future climate to assess possible future air/precipitation composition patterns
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  • 53
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    Water, air & soil pollution 76 (1994), S. 1-35 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: integrated modeling ; integrated assessment ; greenhouse gas emissions ; global change ; climate change ; land cover change ; C cycle
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper describes the IMAGE 2.0 model, a multi-disciplinary, integrated model designed to simulate the dynamics of the global society-biosphere-climate system. The objectives of the model are to investigate linkages and feedbacks in the system, and to evaluate consequences of climate policies. Dynamic calculations are performed to year 2100, with a spatial scale ranging from grid (0.5°×0.5° latitudelongitude) to world regional level, depending on the sub-model. The model consists of three fully linked sub-systems: Energy-Industry, Terrestrial Environment, and Atmosphere-Ocean. The Energy-Industry models compute the emissions of greenhouse gases in 13 world regions as a function of energy consumption and industrial production. End use energy consumption is computed from various economic/demographic driving forces. The Terrestrial Environment models simulate the changes in global land cover on a gridscale based on climatic and economic factors, and the flux of CO2 and other greenhouse gases from the biosphere to the atmosphere. The Atmosphere-Ocean models compute the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the resulting zonal-average temperature and precipitation patterns. The fully linked model has been tested against data from 1970 to 1990, and after calibration can reproduce the following observed trends: regional energy consumption and energy-related emissions, terrestrial flux of CO2 and emissions of greenhouse gases, concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and transformation of land cover. The model can also simulate long term zonal average surface and vertical temperatures.
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  • 54
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: climate change ; global change ; integrated assessment ; integrated models ; scenario analysis ; carbon cycle ; biofuels
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper presents scenarios computed with IMAGE 2.0, an integrated model of the global environment and climate change. Results are presented for selected aspects of the society-biosphere-climate system including primary energy consumption, emissions of various greenhouse gases, atmospheric concentrations of gases, temperature, precipitation, land cover and other indicators. Included are a “Conventional Wisdom” scenario, and three variations of this scenario: (i) the Conventional Wisdom scenario is a reference case which is partly based on the input assumptions of the IPCC's IS92a scenario; (ii) the “Biofuel Crops” scenario assumes that most biofuels will be derived from new cropland; (iii) the “No Biofuels” scenario examines the sensitivity of the system to the use of biofuels; and (iv) the “Ocean Realignment” scenario investigates the effect of a large-scale change in ocean circulation on the biosphere and climate. Results of the biofuel scenarios illustrate the importance of examining the impact of biofuels on the full range of greenhouse gases, rather than only CO2. These scenarios also indicate possible side effects of the land requirements for energy crops. The Ocean Realignment scenario shows that an unexpected, low probability event can both enhance the build-up of greenhouse gases, and at the same time cause a temporary cooling of surface air temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere. However, warming of the atmosphere is only delayed, not avoided.
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  • 55
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: energy modeling ; greenhouse gas emissions ; climate change
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract In the integrated IMAGE 2.0 model the “Energy-Industry System” is implemented as a set of models to develop global scenarios for energy use and industrial processes and for the related emissions of greenhouse gases on a region specific basis. The Energy-Economy model computes total energy use, with a focus on final energy consumption in end-use sectors, based on economic activity levels and the energy conservation potential (“end-use approach”). The Industrial Production and Consumption model computes the future levels of activities other than energy use, which lead to greenhouse gas emissions, based on relations with activities defined in the Energy-Economy model. These two models are complemented by two emissions models, to compute the associated emissions by using emission factors per compound and per activity defined. For investigating energy conservation and emissions control strategy scenarios various techno-economic coefficients in the model can be modified. In this paper the methodology and implementation of the “Energy-Industry System” models is described as well as results from their testing against data for the period 1970–1990. In addition, the application of the models is presented for a specific scenario calculation. Future extensions of the models are in preparation.
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  • 56
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    Water, air & soil pollution 76 (1994), S. 163-198 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: land cover ; land use ; agricultural demand ; climate change ; global change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper describes two global models: (1) an Agricultural Demand Model which is used to compute the consumption and demand for commodities that define land use in 13 world regions; and, (2) a Land Cover Model, which simulates changes in land cover on a global terrestrial grid (0.5° latitude by 0.5° longitude) resulting from economic and climatic factors. Both are part of the IMAGE 2.0 model of global climate change. The models have been calibrated and tested with regional data from 1970–1990. The Agricultural Demand Model can approximate the observed trend in commodity consumption and the Land Cover Model simulates the total amount of land converted within 13 world regions during this period. Some degree of the spatial variability of deforestation has also been captured by the simulation. Applying the model to a “Conventional Wisdom” scenario showed that future trends of land conversions could be strikingly different on different continents even though a consistent scenario (IS92a from the IPCC) was used for assumptions about economic growth and population. Sensitivity analysis indicated that future land cover patterns are especially sensitive to assumed technological improvements in crop yield and computed changes in agricultural demand.
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    Water, air & soil pollution 90 (1996), S. 335-343 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: snowmelt ; runoff ; net radiation ; snow cover ; climate change ; water supply
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract In mountainous regions where the accumulation and melt of seasonal snow cover are important for runoff production, the timing and quantity of water supply could be strongly affected by regional climate change, particularly altered temperature and precipitation regimes.In this paper, the hydrological response to climate change scenarios is examined using a semi-distributed snowmelt runoff model. The model represents an improvement over simple temperature-based models, in that it incorporates the net radiation into the snowpack. Thus it takes into account the basin's topography and slope orientation when computing snowmelt. In general, a warmer climate is expected to shift snowmelt earlier into the winter and spring, decreasing summer runoff. The effects of other potential climate changes (such as precipitation and cloudiness patterns) are explored. The uncertainties in these predictions are discussed.
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  • 58
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: elemental composition ; fine sediments ; Tagus ; Atlantic shelf ; sediment transport ; pollution
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The Tagus estuary, located at the western Iberian coast in front of Lisbon is the largest one in Portugal, where it drains highly populated and industrialised regions. The amount of sediment transported by this river is so great that the submarine delta is one of the largest in the Iberian margin, very well defined and reaching the 70m isobath. The geochemical pattern of the muddy deposit off the Tagus river has been determined by elemental analyses of bulk surficial sediments, collected at the Portuguese margin adjacent to the Tagus estuary. Measurements were carried out by energy-dispersive X-ray fluorescence spectrometry (EDXRF). Sediments were usually composed of fine particles (silts and clays) and were high in organic matter (measured as loss on ignition). Elemental concentrations for Zn and Pb clearly indicate an estuarine contamination probably associated with discharges from urban centers or due to the influence of the industries located downstream. Apparently the depletion on the Cu contents is caused by its release (soluble complexes) into the marine environment. Variations observed in the elemental distribution of the sediments off the Tagus with distance from the estuary seem to be dependent on the grain size distribution related to the dynamics of the sediment transport.
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  • 59
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: soil ; pollution ; heavy metals ; smelters ; factoranalysis
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract A combined statistical and computergraphic approach is proposed for apportionment and attribution of soil contaminants in complex areas. The field test site lies north of Swansea, south Wales and contains two major pollutant sources, an active nickel refiner and (4 km away) the site of major base metal smelting in the nineteenth century (the Lower Swansea Valley reclamation study area). Soil samples (70 samples, 0–15 cm) were collected on a regular grid of 1000 m interval. They were extracted using 0.05 M diammonium EDTA and the extracts analysed for Cd, Co, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn. Soil pH and %organic content were also determined. Factor analysis yielded three groups which explained 73.8% of the data variance (1: Cd, Cu, %OM, Pb, Zn, Ni; 2: Cd, Zn, Mn, pH; 3: Cu, Mn, Co, Ni, Fe). Isoline plots were classifiable into the same three groups. It was concluded that factor 3 contained those elements associated with smelter emissions, factor 1 with contamination from the Lower Swansea Valley and in factor 2 pedogenetic processes control the occurrence of the elements.
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    Water, air & soil pollution 94 (1997), S. 99-107 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: pollution ; harbour ; coastal waters ; organic leading
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract A study was carried out recently to determine the pollution level of waters in the Karachi harbour and adjoining backwaters. Nine locations were selected, four in the backwaters, two on the seaside, and three in the main navigable channel. Four of these locations were deliberately selected to coincide with those of a previous study conducted in 1982 by Pakistan Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (PCSIR) so that the values for the concentration of different pollutants could be compared. Analysis was conducted for pH, bicarbonates, Total Solids, Volatile matter in Total Solids, Chlorides, Sulphates, Calcium, Magnesium, Sodium and Potassium. The results indicate that the composition of sea water as far as the concentration of above constituents is concerned has not changed much since the time of the PCSIR study, viz 1982, except that the organic matter concentration has increased. The reasons for this increase in organic loading and its possible impact are discussed in this paper.
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    Water, air & soil pollution 99 (1997), S. 255-263 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: heavy metals ; sediments ; pollution ; resuspension ; release processes ; bioavailability ; anthropogenic ; metal ; residual inetal ; geochemical phases
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The space-time distribution of some pollutants (Cu, Ph, Zn, Cd, Fe, Mn, V, Ni, Cr) in the sludge of the canals of Venice was studied. The contamination levels were comparable to, or higher, than those measured in the most polluted sediments of the Lagoon of Venice Sediments were collected by two different sampling techniques I ) collection of sediment cores (upper 5 cm) by a syringe-type corer, 2) collection by traps, placed on the bottom of the canal Traps pennitted the sampling of sediments essentially resuspended by overlying water turbulence This sediment fraction is subjected to variations of its physicochemical parameters (principally change of redox conditions) and therefore to pollutant exchange at the water/sediment interface The metals principally exchanged during sediment resuspension were Cd, Pb, Zn and Cu These metals have principally an anthropogenic origin and are bound to the most labile geochemical phases of the sediment (such as sulphides), which can be oxidised during sediment resuspension, releasing metals into the water Fe, Cr and Ni were only partially exchanged, while Mn and V were generally not exchanged, a significant fraction of these metals is of natural origin and is bound to the most refractory phases of the sediment.
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    Water, air & soil pollution 82 (1995), S. 445-454 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: Choristoneura fumiferana (lepidoptera: tortricidae) ; disturbance Regimes ; trophic interactions ; climate change ; boreal forest
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Insect populations have a substantial impact on Canada's forest. They are a dominating disturbance factor and during outbreaks they can cause tree mortality over vast areas of forest. If the predicted climate changes take effect, the damage patterns caused by insects may be drastically altered, especially for the many insects whose occurrence in time and space is severely limited by climatic factors. This possibility substantially increases the uncertainties associated with the long-term planning of pest control requirements, with hazard rating models, with depletion forecasts, and with projections for the sustainability of future timber supplies. Moreover, because insect damage affects the rates of various processes in nutrient and biogeochemical cycling, potential changes in damage patterns can affect ecosystem resilience. This paper presents a number of plausible scenarios that describe how some key processes in the boreal forest's insect defoliator outbreak systems may respond to climate change. The spruce budworm,Choristoneura fumiferana Clem. (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), is used as an illustrative case study throughout. The potential importance of phonological synchrony in the dynamical interactions between species is emphasised. It is argued that natural selection may be a particularly important process in the response of insects to climate change and that climate change may already be influencing some insect lifecycles. The importance of threshold effects, rare but extreme events, and transient dynamics is emphasised, and the inadequacy of ‘equilibrium’ models for forest:pest systems noted. We conclude by discussing approaches to developing forecasts of how one of the boreal forest's insect defoliator-based disturbance regimes, as a whole, might respond to climate change.
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  • 63
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: pesticide ; PAH ; PCB ; pollution ; principal components analysis ; toxic
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract A fugacity-based model to explain the partitioning of contaminants in the environment is evaluated. Using emission inventories, air and water concentrations predicted by the model for the southwestern Québec region generally agree with field data for phenanthrene,α-HCH, lindane, and DDT. For pyrene, air concentrations are in agreement but water concentrations were in error by a factor of nearly 20. There is also a possibility for using the model to predict emissions from known air and water concentrations. The model was run over 120 times each for phenanthrene, HCB, and lindane while randomly varying the input parameters each time. A Principal Components Analysis and a partial correlation analysis indicate that certain input parameters are more important for some compounds than for others and that log K ow is the physical-chemical property of greatest importance.
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    Water, air & soil pollution 98 (1997), S. 389-399 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: fertilizer ; nitrogen ; pollution ; runoff ; stable isotopes ; sugarcane
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract In many forested wetlands of Louisiana, surface water quality is being deteriorated by nutrient input from adjacent agricultural production area. This field study assesses the input of fertilizer N, applied to sugarcane fields, to forested wetlands. The potential use of natural abundance variations in15N/14N ratios for identification and tracing surface water N sources (NH 4 + - and NO 3 − -N) was evaluated. Runoff and surface water samples were collected from sugarcane fields and bordering forested wetlands (6 stations) over a 16 month period and analyzed for NH 4 + -N, NO 3 − -N, and associated NH 4 + -δ 15N and NO 3 − -δ 15N ratios. FertilizerN draining into adjacent forested wetland was estimated to be only a small fraction of the amount applied. Concentrations of NH 4 + - and NO 3 − -N in the collected water samples were low and ranged from 0.02 to 1.79 mg L−1. Isotopic analysis revealed NH 4 + -δ 15N and NO 3 − -δ 15N means were distinctive and may have the potential to be used as tracers of N contamination. The mean NH 4 + -δ 15N value was +18.6±7.1‰ and the NO 3 − -δ 15N mean was +8.3±3.1‰. Anomalously high NO 3 − -δ 15N values (〉30‰) were attributed to denitrification.
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 49 (1998), S. 111-122 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: biodiversity ; climate change ; embedded society ; adaptation ; biogenetics
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The social and economic implications of atmospheric change on biodiversity need to be seen in a global context of major shifts in the conceptualization and management of our relationship with nature. Traditionally, we have conceptualized the atmosphere and the other creatures of the biosphere as separate from the human, but their quasi-autonomy is now becoming subject to more and more human management. This raises not only economic issues, but social, political, and ethical concerns that will have substantial influence on public policy. Among these are the commodification of genetic material; the privatization of traditional knowledge; and the management of information. In this broader context, the paper examines an array of current and proposed strategies of response to changes in biodiversity as a result of climatic and other stresses.
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 50 (1998), S. 173-187 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: boreal forests ; climate change ; ecosystemdynamics ; ecotone
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Acute ecological changes in North American boreal forests in this century are attributed to an array of factors including human activities. In the Quetico-Superior Ecotone of Northwest Ontario and Northern Minnesota warmer, drier climate conditions since mid-century have concurred with extensive manipulation of regional forests by fire suppression and clear-cut logging. Predicted effects of climate changes expected for the next century could compete with transformations in these systems over the past ∼ 10 000 yr. The degree of alteration of natural processes and patterns in North American boreal forests requires implementation of realistic strategies to ensure that sufficiently large tracts of these systems maintain their natural integrity.
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 45 (1997), S. 129-180 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: chlorinated hydrocarbons ; pollution ; cetaceans ; marine mammals
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Concentrations of HCB, DDTs and PCBs in the tissues andorgans of cetaceans ( Stenella coeruleoalba, Tursiops truncatus, Balaenoptera physalus, Steno bredanensis}, Grampus griseus} and Globicephala melaena) strandedalong the Italian coasts in the period 1987–1993 are reported. The values are compared between speciesand between specimens of the samespecies. Chlorinated hydrocarbon (CH) levels were found toincrease in relation to the quantity andtype of lipids in each tissue and organ. Differences inaccumulation encountered in the differentspecies are principally due to different feeding habitats.Remarkable differences found between malesand females of each species confirm that during gestation andlactation, females undergo disintoxication by passing much of their total burden of CHs to their young.
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 59 (1999), S. 123-134 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: aquaculture ; bloom ; coastal ; cyanophyta ; nutrient ; plankton ; pollution
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Since the early 1990's, large areas of mangrove forest along the nearshore waters of Cukai bay had been cleared to give way for the development of aquaculture activities, human settlement and setting up of new small scale fish processing industries. The Cukai bay, facing the South China Sea, has inflows from the Cukai river estuaries and other numerous small river tributaries. The water quality examined (April 1993 to March 1994) in the bay indicated that the ammonium, nitrate and phosphorus contents were high during the pre-wet monsoon (October 1993) with values of 28.2, 30.1 and 29.6 μg L-1, respectively. The source of nutrients in the estuary were from the newly established fish processing cottage industries, nearby fish culture activities, agro-based effluents (mainly fertilisers from surrounding paddy plantations), untreated human (from nearby villages) and animal wastes (from domestic cattle and goat farms) and siltation due to erosion from land development. The main bulk of the microplankton were comprised of diatoms, dinoflagellates, ciliophora and blue green algae. The blue green algae encountered were species of Lyngbya, Oscillatoria, Phormodium and Trichodesmium while those of diatom were species of Asterionella, Chaetoceros, Coscinodiscus, Navicula and Nitzschia. Peak microplankton production in the water column occurred in October 1993, reaching a maximum value of 173 μg C L-1 d-1. This comprised primarily of the blue green alga, Trichodesmium thiebautii.
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  • 69
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: copper-nickel smelter ; ICP mass spectrometry ; Kola peninsula ; pollution ; soil ; trace elements ; vegetation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Concentrations of 34 elements determined by ICP mass spectrometry were studied in surface soil and vegetation along a north–south gradient through the ‘Pechenganickel’ smelter complex in Kola peninsula, northern Russia. Strong influence from the smelter was evident for Fe, Co, Ni, and Cu, mainly associated with dry deposition of large particles. Also for As, Se, Mo, Sb, Te, Bi, and Pb the smelter or associated sources appeared to be distinct contributors of contamination consisting presumably of smaller particles. Significant but less distinct effects leading to enhanced concentration levels were observed for P, S, V, Cr, Zn, and Tl. In the case of Mn, Rb, Sr, Cs, and Ba the concentrations in vegetation were generally lower near the source, which may be due to cation exchange with protons or heavy metal cations in the soil and subsequent leaching from the root zone. For Li, Be, B, Na, Mg, Al, Ca, Y, Cd, La, Th, and U no particular influence from the smelter complex was observed. Some characteristic differences observed in element concentrations in different plant species and between different years of Pinus sylvestris needles are discussed. The high concentrations observed for many trace elements in the humus horizon indicates that it acts as an active biogeochemical barrier against downward transport of these elements.
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    Environmental modeling and assessment 3 (1998), S. 63-74 
    ISSN: 1573-2967
    Keywords: climate change ; impact integrated assessment modeling
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The paper provides an overview of attempts to represent climate change impact in over twenty integrated assessment models (IAMs) of climate change. Focusing on policy optimization IAMs, the paper critically compares modeling solutions, discusses alternatives and outlines important areas for improvement. Perhaps the most crucial area of improvement concerns the dynamic representation of impact, where more credible functional forms need to be developed to express time‐dependent damage as a function of changing socio‐economic circumstances, vulnerability, degree of adaptation, and the speed as well as the absolute level of climate change.
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    Environmental modeling and assessment 4 (1999), S. 1-12 
    ISSN: 1573-2967
    Keywords: Integrated Assessment ; participation ; focus groups ; modeling tools ; climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Participatory Integrated Assessment (PIA) is an approach which aims at developing methods which allow to combine evaluations of experts and lay people in the field of Integrated Assessment. Thus, policy recommendations derived from PIA exercises are informed by scientific judgments and by valuations of “non-scientists”. For any PIA methodology the provision of insights, facts and figures about the policy problem at hand is crucial. In this paper we describe a PIA methodology which combines the social science research instrument “focus group” with a specific computer information tool, the “Personal CO2 Calculator” (PCC). The tool supports citizens in discussing and recommending measures on climate change policy. Based on our experiences, we plead for information instruments that are tuned to and assist concrete target groups with their specific interests. This helps that policy recommendations derived from PIA exercises are based on both scientific knowledge as well as citizens' and stakeholders' policy preferences.
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    Environmental and ecological statistics 4 (1997), S. 49-64 
    ISSN: 1573-3009
    Keywords: soil ; pollution ; threshold ; geostatistics ; indicators ; kriging ; risk ; Swiss Jura
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The probability that the concentrations of toxic substances in soil or other medium exceed tolerablemaxima at any unsampled place can be estimated by indicator geostatistics. The method is developed and used to estimate and map the risk of contamination by cadmium, copper and lead in the topsoil of a 14.5 km 2 region in the Swiss Jura. It combines both direct measurements of metal concentrations and thecalibration of a geological map, and it shows that the risk of toxicity is least on Argovian rocks. Two approaches are proposed to divide a region into safe' and 'hazardous' zones on the basis of probability maps. The first declares as contaminated all places where the risk of contamination exceeds a given threshold. The second approach first evaluates the financial costs that might result from a wrongdeclaration, after which the site is allocated to a class so as to minimize that cost. The risk of exposure for humans and animals is generally greater for contaminated agricultural land than for forest soil, and so land use is taken into account in both procedures.
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    Journal of agricultural and environmental ethics 4 (1991), S. 1-13 
    ISSN: 1573-322X
    Keywords: ethanol ; food ; energy ; environment ; pollution
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Philosophy
    Notes: Abstract Problems of fuel ethanol production have been the subject of numerous reports, including this analysis. The conclusions are that ethanol: does not improve U.S. energy security; is uneconomical; is not a renewable energy source; and increases environmental degradation. Ethanol production is wasteful of energy resources and does not increase energy security. Considerably more energy, much of it high- grade fossil fuels, is required to produce ethanol than is available in the energy output. About 72% more energy is used to ‘produce a gallon of ethanol than the energy in a gallon of ethanol. Ethanol production from corn is not renewable energy. Its production uses more non- renewable fossil energy resources in growing the corn and in the fermentation/distillation process than is produced as ethanol energy. Ethanol produced from corn and other food crops is also an unreliable and therefore a non-secure source of energy, because of the likelihood of uncontrollable climatic fluctuations, particularly droughts which reduce crop yields. The expected priority for corn and other food crops would be for food and feed. Increasing ethanol production would increase degradation of agricultural land and water and pollute the environment. In U.S. corn production, soil erodes some 18- times faster than soil is reformed, and, where irrigated, corn production mines water faster than recharge of aquifers. Increasing the cost of food and diverting human food resources to the costly and inefficient production of ethanol fuel raise major ethical questions. These occur at a time when more food is needed to meet the basic needs of a rapidly growing world population.
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  • 74
    ISSN: 1573-322X
    Keywords: climate change ; food ; agriculture ; ethics ; technologies
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Philosophy
    Notes: Abstract Burning fossil fuel in the North American continent contributes more to the CO2 global warming problem than in any other continent. The resulting climate changes are expected to alter food production. The overall changes in temperature, moisture, carbon dioxide, insect pests, plant pathogens, and weeds associated with global warming are projected to reduce food production in North America. However, in Africa, the projected slight rise in rainfall is encouraging, especially since Africa already suffers from severe shortages of rainfall. For all regions, a reduction in fossil fuel burning is vital. Adoption of sound ecological resource management, especially soil and water conservation and the prevention of deforestation, is important. Together, these steps will benefit agriculture, the environment, farmers, and society as a whole.
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    Journal of agricultural and environmental ethics 9 (1996), S. 61-82 
    ISSN: 1573-322X
    Keywords: informed consent ; equity ; fairness ; Louisiana ; pollution ; racism ; radiation ; rights ; uranium
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Philosophy
    Notes: Abstract The paper begins with a brief analysis of the concepts of environmental justice and environmental racism and classism. The authors argue that pollution- and environment-related decision-making is prima facie wrong whenever it results in inequitable treatment of individuals on the basis of race or socio-economic status. The essay next surveys the history of the doctrine of free informed consent and argues that the consent of those affected is necessary for ensuring the fairness of decision-making for siting hazardous facilities. The paper also points out that equal opportunity to environmental protection and free informed consent are important rights. Finally, it presents a case study on the proposed uranium enrichment facility near Homer, Louisiana and argues that siting the plant would violate norms of distributive equity and free informed consent. It concludes that siting the facility is a case of environmental injustice and likely an example of environmental racism or classism.
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    Environmental and resource economics 15 (2000), S. 135-148 
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: climate change ; overlapping generations models
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The artifice of an infinitely-lived representative agent iscommonly invoked to balance the present costs and future benefitsof climate stabilization policies. Since actual economies arepopulated by overlapping generations of finite-lived persons,this approach begs important questions of welfare aggregation.This paper compares the results of representative agent andoverlapping generations models that are numerically calibratedbased on standard assumptions regarding climate--economyinteractions. Under two social choice rules -- Pareto efficiencyand classical utilitarianism -- the models generate closelysimilar simulation results. In the absence of policies toredistribute income between present and future generations,efficient rates of carbon dioxide emissions abatement rise from15 to 20% between the years 2000 and 2105. Under classicalutilitarianism, in contrast, optimal control rates rise from 48 to 79% this same period.
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    Environmental and resource economics 15 (2000), S. 257-278 
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: accounting ; `El Serafy'-method ; genuine savings ; natural resources ; pollution ; sustainability ; World Bank
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The World Bank has recently published acomprehensive study of environmental and resourceaccounting, covering 103 countries (World Bank1997a). The study concludes that many Sub-Saharan,Northern African and Middle East countries have hadnegative `genuine' saving rates over the last 20years and therefore fail to pass the test of weaksustainability. This paper argues that the Bank'sconclusions depend on a method for computing usercosts from resource exploitation that is challengedby two competing ones (the `El Serafy'-method andthe method of Repetto et al.) and is inferior to oneof its rivals. Resource rents are re-computed usingthe `El Serafy'-method for 14 countries and theSub-Saharan and Northern African and Middle Eastregions. The results are that both regions andalmost all countries either stop exhibiting signs ofunsustainability or their unsustainability can beexplained without having recourse to resourceaccounting. However, for Congo, Ecuador, Gabon,Nigeria, Mauritania and Trinidad and Tobago there isa lesson: These countries did not adequately use theopportunities they were given through their naturalresource endowments and should learn from theirmistake for the future depletion of their remainingreserves of natural resources.
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    Environmental and resource economics 6 (1995), S. 359-369 
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: Cournot duopoly ; Pigovian tax ; pollution
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract It is well known that the optimal pollution tax in a competitive industry is equal to the marginal damage inflicted by the pollution. It has also been shown that the optimal pollution tax on a monopoly is less than the marginal damage. In this paper, I derive the optimal pollution tax for a Cournot duopoly. If firms have different production costs, the optimal tax rate may exceed the marginal damage. This is so because the tax may be an effective instrument for allocating production from the less to the more efficient firm. It is also shown that, if one firm has a positive most preferred pollution tax, the sum of consumer and producer surpluses will be declining in the tax at this level.
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    Environmental and resource economics 11 (1998), S. 557-570 
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: endangered species ; environmental policy ; pollution ; risk
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Behavior matters more to environmental policy than most people think. This paper illustrates why this point needs repeating in four ongoing policy debates in the United States – Children's health risk, ozone/particulate matter (PM), climate change, and endangered species.
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    Environmental and resource economics 11 (1998), S. 301-315 
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: climate change ; cost-benefit analysis ; decision criterion ; discount rate ; weight factors ; JEL classification: D61, D62, D63
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Although the greenhouse effect is by many considered as one of the most serious environmental problems, several economic studies of the greenhouse effect, most notably Nordhaus's DICE model, suggest that it is optimal to allow the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) to increase by a factor of three over the next century. Other studies have found that substantial reductions can be justified on economic grounds. This paper explores into the reasons for these differences and identifies four (partly overlapping) crucial issues that have to be dealt with when analysing the economics of the greenhouse effect: low-probability but catastrophic events; cost evaluation methods; the choice of discount rate; the choice of decision criterion. The paper shows that (i) these aspects are crucial for the policy conclusions drawn from models of the economics of climate change, and that (ii) ethical choices have to be made for each of these issues. This fact needs wider recognition since economics is very often perceived as a value neutral tool that can be used to provide policy makers with “optimal” policies.
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    Environmental and resource economics 12 (1998), S. 1-24 
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: climate change ; CGE models ; comparative impacts ; poverty
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The impact of global climate change on developing countries is analyzed using CGE-multimarket models for three archetype economies representing the poor cereal importing nations of Africa, Asia, and Latin America. The objective is to compare the effects of climate change on the macroeconomic performance, sectoral resource allocation, and household welfare across continents. Simulations help identify those underlying structural features of economies which are the primary determinants of differential impacts; these are suggestive of policy instruments to countervail undesirable effects. Results show that all these countries will potentially suffer income and production losses. However, Africa, with its low substitution possibilities between imported and domestic foods, fares worst in terms of income losses and the drop in consumption of low income households. Countervailing policies to mitigate negative effects should focus on integration in the international market and the production of food crops in Africa, and on the production of export crops in Latin America and Asia.
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  • 82
    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Keywords: climate change ; mountain agriculture ; tourism ; participatory integrated assessment ; focus groups
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Winter tourism and mountain agriculture are the most important economic sectors in a major part of the Swiss Alps. Both are highly sensitive to changing climatic conditions. In the framework of the CLEAR project, results from climate impact research in the field of tourism and agricultural production were used to investigate the perception of climatic change by stakeholders and to assess possible adaptations. We used a participatory integrated assessment (PIA) to involve the knowledge, values and experiences of the various social actors in tourism and agriculture (e.g., skiers, tourism managers, farmers) in the research process. Whereas climate change may have various severe direct impacts on the tourism industry, depending on the region, agricultural production may generally benefit from changed climatic conditions. But because of the dependence of farmers on “off-farm” income, the loss due to declining winter tourism in specific areas may cause more important indirect effects. However, the two sectors may adapt actively by choosing from a variety of strategies, and the loss of income from the tourism industry may support the re-evaluation of the various functions agriculture plays in mountain regions, beyond the production of food. The study demonstrates the suitability of the PIA approach to elucidate the interactions between different stakeholders and their perception of the climate change phenomena. A similar participatory approach could be a useful tool to transfer research results and expert knowledge to the political process addressing adaptations to climate change.
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    Environmental and resource economics 9 (1997), S. 467-491 
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: green policy ; pollution ; relocation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract This article concerns itself with the environmental role of heavily polluting industries since 1970, analysing its development in 11 basic industries, as well as electricity production and road transport, in 32 industrial countries. It argues for a green industrial policy, demonstrating that other mitigations of environmental pressure in industrial countries—end-of-pipe treatment, relocation to the Third World, structural change in the industrial sector and even environmentally oriented modernization—have so far been unable to solve the problems of ‘dirty industries’, although some approaches have shown (some) promise.
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    Environmental and resource economics 17 (2000), S. 353-373 
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: environmental transition ; growth ; Kuznets ; pollution ; transboundary externalities
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) is a hypothesis which implies that it is possible to “grow out of environmental degradation”. Most theoretical models of the EKC relation have not accounted for transboundary and intergenerational externalities nor have empirical studies provided evidence that validates an inverted U shaped relation between environmental degradation and economic growth for pollution problems where the effects are far-displaced or are long-delayed. This paper integrates the theory of transboundary externalities into the most common theoretical framework applied to the EKC hypothesis. It shows that where a significant proportion of the environmental impacts of economic activity occurs outside the territories in which those activities take place, the de-linking of growth and environmental degradation is less likely to happen. This proposition is demonstrated by assuming that decisionmakers have a Nash-type non cooperative strategic behavior.
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    Environmental and resource economics 8 (1996), S. 367-374 
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: energy policy ; pollution ; resource conservation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract In this paper an analysis of the U.K. government's air pollution emissions policy for the residential sector is undertaken. The analysis covers emissions arising from water and space heating, electric appliances and cooking appliances. Using an integrated economic-engineering model, the effects of the Energy Savings Trust and the imposition of Value Added Tax on residential fuel will be evaluated in terms of energy consumption and pollution emissions. It is found that the initial proposed policy was not sufficiently stringent to meet the government's environmental objectives, and that subsequent events have undermined the government's programme even further. Unless alternative policies are introduced, emissions from the residential sector will play an important role in jeopardizing the ability of the U.K. government to meet its international obligations.
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    Environmental and resource economics 7 (1996), S. 333-355 
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: environmental policy ; pollution ; strategic behaviour
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Policy makers, industrialists and environmentalists express concern that the imposition of tough environmental policies in some countries displaces production, and hence pollution, to countries which impose less tough environmental policies. Yet empirical studies of such impacts suggest they are small. However, these findings are derived from models in which international trade is modelled as being perfectly competitive. In this paper I model trade as imperfectly competitive with scope for strategic behavior by producers, in this case investment in capital. I show that the choice of environmental policy instrument can have a marked impact on the incentives for producers to act strategically, with environmental standards significantly reducing the incentives for strategic overinvestment relative to environmental taxes or no environmental policy at all. Whether welfare is higher using standards or taxes depends on whether producing countries are also significant consumers of the polluting product, and on whether all producing governments act to reduce emissions or only some subset of governments. To assess the quantitative significance of these theoretical results I conduct policy simulations on a calibrated model of the world fertilizer industry. These simulations show that the impact of environmental policy on strategic behaviour can be large.
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    Environmental and resource economics 17 (2000), S. 163-181 
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: carbon emissions inequality ; climate change ; global warming
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract This paper analyzes future carbon emissions inequality using a group decomposition of the Gini index. Business-as-usual projections to the year 2100 for 135 countries show inequality in per capita emissions declines slowly. Next, the impact on emissions levels and inequality of the Kyoto Protocol and other abatement proposals for Annex II countries in 2010 are measured, with a focus on the gap-narrowing and reranking effects. Substantial reranking of per capita emissions between Annex II and non-Annex II countries will not occur unless the former reduce their emissions by at least 50% (versus 1990 levels) and the latter continue growing unabated.
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    Environmental and resource economics 5 (1995), S. 1-8 
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: Endogenous growth ; pollution
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The analysis of endogenous growth models with pollution often concentrates on steady state trajectories, under the assumption that the steady state is in some sense stable. In the present note we provide examples showing that this issue should be dealt with carefully. We use the Rebelo “Ak” model augmented with a stock of pollutants causing a negative externality. It is found that optimal growth is not necessarily balanced (contrary to the outcome of the standard Rebelo model). Moreover, the existence of the externality may affect long run optimal growth rates.
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    Integrated assessment 1 (2000), S. 127-136 
    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Keywords: integrated assessments ; climate change ; discounting ; equity ; climate policy
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract A standard framework is presented as an underlying model for the discounting debate. Views and proposals for the techniques and rates of discounting are assessed. Alternative modeling frameworks for studying intergenerational equity issues are evaluated with the result that the basic insights they provide do not differ very much. Results from model experiments involving different discount rate proposals show that fudging the discount rate does not lead to efficient climate policy. Three major clusters of opinions are identified regarding the applicability of cost-benefit analysis to the climate change problem and the appropriate discount rate to use. It is concluded that under some very special circumstances the cost-benefit rule should be abandoned and cost-effective strategies implying standard discount rates should be sought to reach clearly defined and justified environmental targets.
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  • 90
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 2 (1998), S. 405-421 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: Canada ; carbon fluxes ; carbon content ; harvesting ; land-use change ; wild fire
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Land-use change from an unmanaged to a managed forested landscape in northern forests is associated with a reduction of the area annually affected by natural disturbances (wildfires and forest insects) and the introduction of harvesting as a new disturbance. This study examined the impacts of changes in the disturbance regime — the frequency and type of disturbance — on landscape-level carbon (C) content and fluxes. The Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector was used to assess these impacts in six representative landscapes (100,000 ha each) with a range of disturbance regimes that are characteristic of conditions in coastal British Columbia, the interior of British Columbia, and the eastern boreal forest in Canada. The model was used to simulate ecosystem C fluxes during a period of natural disturbances, a 50-year transition period during which harvesting replaced natural disturbances, followed by 150 years of harvesting. The initial landscape-level biomass C content under natural disturbance regimes in the six example landscapes was 22 to 75% of their potential maximum content which is often used as the reference or baseline case. After 200 years of forest management, the C stored in the landscape plus the C retained in forest products manufactured from harvested biomass was between 58 and 101% of the landscape C content prior to the onset of harvesting. Landscape-level ecosystem C content was found to be affected by changes in the disturbance frequency, the age-dependence of the disturbance probabilities, and the disturbance-specific impacts on ecosystem C content. The results indicate that using the potential maximum C content of a landscape as the baseline always overestimates the actual C release due to land use change. A more meaningful procedure would be to assess the actual differences in landscape-level C content between the natural and the managed disturbance regime.
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  • 91
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 2 (1998), S. 337-358 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; greenhouse gas emissions ; waste ; landfills ; mitigation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Waste management is a significant source of methane (CH4) emissions. CH4 is second to carbon dioxide (CO2) the most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas. In this article the methodology and results from a study on the reduction potential of alternative waste treatment strategies in mitigating the greenhouse impact are presented. The objective is to provide information to decision makers so that the greenhouse issue can be included in the decision making on waste management strategies. The potential cost-effectiveness of reducing the greenhouse impact of alternative waste treatment strategies in three communities of different size in Finland is assessed. The estimation of the greenhouse impact includes estimates of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the amount of carbon (C) stored at landfills (Csink) and the emission savings that can be achieved by using waste for energy production (assumed decrease in the use of fossil fuels). Landfill gas recovery with energy production was found to be the most cost-efficient way in reducing the greenhouse impact from large landfills. Burning of all the waste or the combustible fraction in municipal solid waste (MSW) was also an efficient method to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, especially if the energy produced can reduce the burning of fossil fuels. Emissions from transportation of waste are small compared with the emissions from landfills. Even if the transportation mileage is doubled due to increasing separation and recycling the greenhouse impact of transportation would be only 3–4 percent of the impact of landfilling the waste.
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  • 92
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 2 (1997), S. 337-358 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; greenhouse gas emissions ; waste ; landfills ; mitigation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Waste management is a significant source of methane (CH4) emissions. CH4 is second to carbon dioxide (CO2) the most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas. In this article the methodology and results from a study on the reduction potential of alternative waste treatment strategies in mitigating the greenhouse impact are presented. The objective is to provide information to decision makers so that the greenhouse issue can be included in the decision making on waste management strategies. The potential cost-effectiveness of reducing the greenhouse impact of alternative waste treatment strategies in three communities of different size in Finland is assessed. The estimation of the greenhouse impact includes estimates of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the amount of carbon (C) stored at landfills (Csink) and the emission savings that can be achieved by using waste for energy production (assumed decrease in the use of fossil fuels). Landfill gas recovery with energy production was found to be the most-efficient way in reducing the greenhouse impact from large landfills. Burning of all the waste or the combustible fraction in municipal solid waste (MSW) was also an efficient method to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, especially if the energy produced can reduce the burning of fossil fuels. Emissions from transportation of waste are small compared with the emissions from landfills. Even if the transportion mileage is doubled due to increasing separation and recycling the greenhouse impact of transportation would be only 3–4 percent of the impact of landfilling the waste.
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  • 93
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 2 (1997), S. 405-421 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: Canada ; carbon fluxes ; carbon content ; harvesting ; land-use change ; wild fire
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Land-use change from an unmanaged to a managed forested landscape in northern forests is associated with a reduction of the area annually affected by natural disturbances (wildfires and forest insects) and the introduction of harvesting as a new disturbance. This study examined the impacts of changes in the disturbance regime-the frequency and type of disturbance-on landscape-level carbon (C) content and fluxes. The Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector was used to assess these impacts in six representative landscapes (100,000 ha each) with a range of disturbance regimes that are characteristic of conditions in coastal British Columbia, the interior of British Columbia, and the eastern boreal forest in Canada. The model was used to simulate ecosystem C fluxes during a period of natural disturbances, a 50-year transition period during which harvesting replaced natural disturbances, followed by 150 years of harvesting. The initial landscape-level biomass C content under natural disturbance regimes in the six example landscapes was 22 to 75% of their potential maximum content which is often used as the reference or baseline case. After 200 years of forest management, the C stored in the landscape plus the C retained in forest products manufactured from harvested biomass was between 58 and 101% of the landscape C content prior to the onset of harvesting. Landscape-level ecosystem C content was found to be affected by changes in the disturbance frequency, the age-dependence of the disturbance probabilities, and the disturbance-specific impacts on ecosystem C content. The results indicate that using the potential maximum C content of a landscape as the baseline always overestimates the actual C release due to land use change. A more meaningful procedure would be to assess the actual differences in landscape-level C content between the natural and the managed disturbance regime.
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  • 94
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 3 (1998), S. 343-381 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: carbon dioxide emissions ; climate change ; climate change mitigation ; emission scenarios ; greenhouse gas emissions ; land-use emissions ; methane emissions ; nitrous oxide emissions
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Land-use emissions of greenhouse gases make up over one-third of current total anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and about three-quarters of the total anthropogenic emissions of CH4 and N2O. Considering their contribution to global emissions, it is important to understand their future trends in order to anticipate and mitigate climate change. This paper reviews published scenarios of major categories of these emissions with the aim to provide background information for the development of new scenarios. These categories include CO2 from deforestation, CH4 from rice cultivation, CH4 from enteric fermentation of cattle, and N2O from fertilizer application. Base year estimates of all these categories varied greatly from reference to reference, and hence emissions of all scenarios were normalized relative to their 1990 value before being compared to one another. The range of published scenarios of CO2 emissions from deforestation is widest around the middle of the 21st century and then all scenarios converge to low values towards 2100. By contrast, the different scenarios of CH4 and N2O diverge with time, showing their widest range in 2100. Global emissions of CH4 from rice cultivation vary by a factor of three in 2100 and N2O from fertilized soils by a factor of 2.3. Emissions of CH4 from enteric fermentation of animals have the smallest range (factor of 2.0). The typical long-range trends of land-use emission scenarios vary greatly from region to region - they stabilize in industrialized regions after a few decades, but tend to stabilize later in developing regions or continue to grow throughout the 21st century. To improve the realism of the estimates of future trends of land-use emissions, it is especially important to improve the estimation of the future extent of agricultural land and the rate of deforestation, while taking into account significant driving forces such as the demand for agricultural commodities and crop yields.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 3 (1998), S. 321-341 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; emissions scenarios ; methane emissions
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Evidence from the atmosphere indicates that global emissions of methane may have been broadly constant since the early 1980s or growing only slowly. This suggests that whilst emissions from some sources may have increased with increased activity, emissions from other sources may have gone down. This is supported by evidence and analysis from the individual emission sectors which show declining emission rates in some cases. This paper reviews the factors that might affect emissions in the future from different sources and has been written as an aid to the development of new scenarios for greenhouse gas emission for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The analysis indicates that there could be additional uncertainty in future emissions but that, overall, future emissions might plausibly be lower than previously projected.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 3 (1998), S. 133-170 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; environment ; fertility rates ; greenhouse gas emissions scenarios ; IIASA ; IPAT ; IPCC ; IS92 ; population ; population projections ; United Nations ; U.S. Census Bureau ; World Bank
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract A survey is made of the latest world population projections issued by the United Nations, World Bank, U.S. Census Bureau, and International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Medium variants from all the organizations show excellent agreement with respect to many features of future world population growth. It appears that little would be gained by obtaining additional regional projections made by governments or organizations other than those listed above. In general, the new range of population projections that are candidates for forthcoming IPCC emissions scenarios are narrower and lower than the previous IPCC IS92 population range: a reflection of updated information on the decline of fertility rates in developing countries and the incorporation of a plausible correlation between mortality rates and fertility rates within the IIASA ‘rapid’ and ‘slow’ demographic transition variants. Comments are made on the schematic approach of forecasting CO2 emissions using multiplicative identities such as ‘IPAT’ (impact/emissions = population × affluence × technology). Although the unqualified IPAT model suggests that emissions should scale linearly with population, a number of caveats to this exist, the most important of which may be factor interactions. A brief review is made of conventional thinking about interactions between population growth and economic development. Correlation studies and theory suggest that population growth has a neutral or, at most, weak negative effect on economic growth. Conversely, it is well established that higher per capita incomes are well correlated with lower fertility and mortality rates in developing countries. Therefore, a plausible first-order relationship worth exploring in the next generation of IPCC scenarios is that scenarios with higher average economic growth rates in the developing world should be associated with lower fertility and mortality rates there. Calculations are presented that illustrate the effect this negative correlation could have had on the range of the older IS92 emission scenarios, assuming that all other factors are unchanged. Finally, some policy issues concerning population and global warming are reviewed in connection with the IPCC’s omission of population policy discussion in its 1995 Second Assessment Report.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 3 (1998), S. 171-230 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; emission scenarios ; energy resources ; fossil fuels ; nuclear power ; renewables ; energy conversion technologies ; fuel cells
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract A variety of energy sources will compete to provide the energy services that humans will require over the next 100 years. The balance of these sources will depend upon the availability of fossil fuels and the development of new technologies including renewable energy technologies, and will be one of the keys in projecting greenhouse gas emissions. There is uncertainty about each of the energy sources. With oil, for example, there are two alternate views of future reserves, one that reserves are geologically limited and that supplies will decline within a decade or two, the other that there are enormous quantities of hydrocarbon in the earth’s crust and that reserves are a function of developing technology and price. With solar voltaics, as a second example, there is optimism that the technology will become increasingly competitive, but there is uncertainty about the rate at which costs can come down and about ultimate cost levels. This paper reviews the reserves of fossil fuels and the prospects for nuclear power and the renewables. It also reviews the main energy conversion technologies that are available now or are expected to become increasingly available through time. However, it should be noted that, over a time horizon of 100 years, there may be quite radical changes in both production and conversion technologies that cannot be predicted and it is quite possible for some as yet unheard of technology to be developed and to transform the markets. The paper has been written to aid the development of new scenarios for the emission of greenhouse gases for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 4 (1999), S. 61-81 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; cost-benefit ; Hungary ; integrated assessment ; mitigation ; pollution ; discount rate
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Few studies on measures for mitigation of damage caused by man-made emissions to the environment have tried to consider all major effects. We illustrate the importance of an integrated approach by estimating costs and benefits of a proposed energy saving program for Hungary, originally designed to reduce CO2 emissions. The dominant benefit of implementing the program is likely to be reduced health damage from local pollutants. Also reduced costs of material damage and to a lesser extent vegetation damage contribute to make the net benefit considerable. Compared to the reduction in these local and regional effects, the benefits from reducing greenhouse gases are likely to be minor. Since local effects in general occur much earlier after measures have been implemented than effects of increased emissions of greenhouse gases, inclusion of local effects makes evaluation of climate policy less dependent on the choice of discount rate. In our opinion, similar results are likely for many measures originally designed to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases particularly in some areas in developing countries with high local pollution levels. Main uncertainties in the analysis, e.g. in the relationships between damage and pollution level, are discussed.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 4 (1999), S. 1-23 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; concentration limits ; discounted control costs ; Kyoto Protocol
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Preliminary analysis based on an aggregate model of global carbon emissions suggests that constraining emissions to the levels that would be imposed by compliance with the results of the Kyoto negotiations can increase the discounted cost of ultimately limiting atmospheric concentrations. Kyoto targets can be either too restrictive or too permissive depending upon the (currently unknown) trajectory of carbon emissions over the near- to medium-term and the (as yet unspecified) concentration target that frames long-term policy. The discounted cost of meeting low concentration targets like 450 ppmv. is diminished by allowing large sinks and/or by imposing more restrictive near-term emissions benchmarks (even if only Annex B countries are bound by the Kyoto accord). Conversely, the cost of achieving high concentration targets like 650 ppmv. is diminished by disallowing sinks and/or by imposing less restrictive emissions benchmarks. Intermediate concentration targets like 550 ppmv. look like high concentration targets (favoring no sinks and expanded near-term emissions) along low emissions paths; but they look like low concentration targets (favoring the opposite) along high emissions paths. Emissions trajectories that lie above the median, but not excessively so, represent cases for which adjustments in the Kyoto emissions benchmarks and/or negotiated allowances for sinks have the smallest effect on the cost of mitigation.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 4 (1999), S. 25-41 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: adaptation ; agriculture ; climate change ; Kazakhstan
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Agriculture in Kazakhstan is sensitive to climate, and wheat yields could be reduced up to 70% under climate change. With the transition from a socialist economy to a free market economy, decisions are being made now that will affect Kazakhstan's ability to cope with climate change. A team of Kazakh and American researchers examined the cost-effectiveness and barriers to implementations of adaptation options for climate change. Twelve adaptation options that increase flexibility to respond to climate change were identified using a screening matrix. Four options, forecasting pest outbreaks, developing regional centers for preserving genetic diversity of seeds, supporting a transition to a free market, and reducing soil erosion through the use of changed farming practices, were examined. The Adaptation Decision Matrix (ADM) was then applied to estimate benefits using expert judgment (using an arbitrary numerical scale, not monetary values) and benefits estimates were compared to costs to determine cost-effectiveness. The ADM uses subjective measures of how well adaptation options meet policy objectives. Controlling soil erosion was estimated to have the highest benefits, but the high costs of implementation appears to make it relatively cost-ineffective. Supporting a transition to a free market was ranked as the most cost-effective measure, with regional centers second. However, use of different scales to quantify benefits or different weights can result in regional centers being more cost-effective than the transition to a free market. Regional centers was also judged to have fewer barriers to implementation than a transition to a free market. These results will be incorporated in Kazakhstan's National Action Plan. The ADM and other tools are relatively easy to apply, but are quite subjective and difficult to evaluate. The tools can be quite useful by decision makers to analyze advantages and disadvantages between different adaptation options, but should be supplemented with additional, particularly quantitative analysis.
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