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  • 1
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Journal for general philosophy of science 31 (2000), S. 109-125 
    ISSN: 1572-8587
    Schlagwort(e): methodology ; philosophy of history ; historiography ; case-history method ; interdisciplinary (philosophy history)
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Philosophie , Wissenschaftskunde und Wissenschaftsorganisation, Hochschul- und Universitätswesen, Museumswissenschaft
    Notizen: Abstract History and philosophy complement and overlap each other in subject matter, but the two disciplines exhibit conflict over methodology. Since Hempel's challenge to historians that they should adopt the covering law model of explanation, the methodological conflict has revolved around the respective roles of the general and the particular in each discipline. In recent years, the revival of narrativism in history, coupled with the trend in philosophy of science to rely upon case studies, joins the methodological conflict anew. So long as contemporary philosophy of science relies upon history's methodology to construct its case studies, it subjects itself to a paradoxical situation: the better the history, the worse the philosophy. An example of the methodological conflict is presented in the case of Antoine Lavoisier. This example also serves our ultimateconclusion, which is that distinctively philosophical methods of case-study design promise enhanced prescriptive powers for philosophy of science.
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  • 2
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Schlagwort(e): seismic hazard ; central Greece ; Gulf of Evia ; fault segmentation ; FRISK ; GIS ; digital mapping
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract Seismic hazard within juvenile rift systems ismodelled by a semi-statistical procedure based onfault segmentation theory. Fault segmentationprovides the physical basis for strong earthquakerecurrence in regions undergoing extension, andtherefore, it may control the position and size of rupture areas for future events. The computercode FRISK (McGuire, 1978) is applied to calculateprobabilistic estimates of ground motion parameters. Six normal fault segments, on average 25 km long, aremodelled as the earthquake sources within the Gulf ofEvia Rift, Central Greece. The position and length ofsegments have been determined from image processing ofremotely-sensed data and field work. FRISK output isdirected to a Geographical Information System (GIS)and a series of high-resolution (0.1 by 0.1 of adegree) digital maps are produced. The results for100 year acceleration (63% not to be exceeded) showa 50% increase in the seismic hazard from previouslyestimated magnitudes. Areas of maximum hazard (over0.4 g) are located on the south coast of the Gulf ofEvia between the towns of Kammena Vourla and Arkitsa. The obtained shape of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA)contours is slightly elliptical with the long axis ofthe ellipse trending E-W, and symmetric, with respectto the rift axis.
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  • 3
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Natural hazards 21 (2000), S. 347-360 
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Schlagwort(e): volcanic hazard ; risk assessment ; GIS ; physical simulation models ; information systems ; emergency planning
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract The incorporation of a set ofcomputer-based tools, such as Geographical InformationSystems and physical models, to the field of riskassessment, introduces a new perspective in thevolcanic risk maps production, increasing the analysisand modelling capabilities available through theapplication of conventional methodologies. Amethodology adapted to the requirements andcharacteristics of the new operating environment hasbeen applied at Tenerife island (Canary Islands,Spain) to carry out a study devoted to analyse thesuitability of these tools for near real-timemanagement of volcanic crises. With this in mind, aseries of potential eruption scenarios have beenselected to identify and characterise which elementsat risk would prove most vulnerable against a specificvolcanic phenomenon, depending on the socio-economiccharacteristics of the area affected and the resultingdistribution of the volcanic products. This kind ofinformation is fundamental to update, adapt or produceeffective risk management and emergency plans orprotocols, where the measures to mitigate or fightagainst a specific volcanic disaster have to be taken,incorporating the existing knowledge of the phenomenonbehaviour and taking into account their potentialeffects on the area of interest.
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  • 4
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Natural hazards 21 (2000), S. 361-379 
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Schlagwort(e): volcanic risk assessment ; GIS ; digital cartography ; volcanic hazard ; Etna
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract Volcanic catastrophes constitute a majorproblem in many developing and developed countries. Inrecent years population growth and the expansion ofsettlements and basic supply lines (e.g., water, gas,etc.) have greatly increased the impact of volcanicdisasters. Correct land-use planning is fundamental inminimising both loss of life and damage to property.In this contribution Geographical Information Systems(GIS), linked with remote sensing technology andtelecommunications/warning systems, have emerged asone of the most promising tools to support thedecision-making process. Some GIS are presented fortwo volcanic areas in Italy, Mt. Etna and Vesuvius.GIS role in risk management is then discussed, keepingin mind the different volcanic scenarios of effusiveand explosive phenomena. Mt. Etna system covers alarge area (more than 1,000 km2) potentiallyaffected by effusive phenomena (lava flows) whichcause damage to both houses and properties in general.No risk to life is expected. The time-scales of lavaflows allow, at least in principle, modification ofthe lava path by the building of artificial barriers.Vesuvius shows typically an explosive behaviour. Inthe case of a medium size explosive eruption, 600,000people would potentially have to be evacuated from anarea of about 200 km2 around the Volcano, sincethey are exposed to ruinous, very fast phenomena likepyroclastic surges and flows, lahars, ash fallout,etc. Ash fallout and floods/lahars are also expectedin distal areas, between Vesuvius and Avellino,downwind of the volcano. GIS include digital elevationmodels, satellite images, volcanic hazard maps andvector data on natural and artificial features (energysupply lines, strategic buildings, roads, railways,etc.). The nature and the level of detail in the twodata bases are different, on the basis of thedifferent expected volcanic phenomena. The GIS havebeen planned: (a) for volcanic risk mitigation (hazard,value, vulnerability and risk map assessing), (b) toprovide suitable tools during an impending crisis, (c)to provide a basis for emergency plans.
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  • 5
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Integrated assessment 1 (2000), S. 21-36 
    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Schlagwort(e): integrated assessment ; climate change ; regional sustainability
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract Cohen et al. [16] suggest that in order to explore ways to bring climate change (CC) and sustainable development (SD) research together, it is necessary to develop more heuristic tools that can involve resource users and other stakeholders. In this respect, this paper focuses on methodological development in research to study climate change impacts and regional sustainable development (RSD). It starts with an introduction of an integrated land assessment framework (ILAF) which is part of the integrated phase of the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS) in Canada. The paper then provides some articulation on how the integrated approach was applied in the Mackenzie Basin to show implications of climate change for RSD.
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  • 6
    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Schlagwort(e): participatory integrated assessment ; climate change ; low energy society
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract Within the CLEAR project a new approach to integrated assessment modelling has been developed for the participatory integrated assessment of regional climate change involving citizens' focus groups. The climate change decision problem was structured by focusing separately on climate impacts and mitigation options. The attempt was made to link the different scales of the problem from the individual to the global level. The abstract topic of climate change was related to options on the level of a citizen's individual lifestyle. The option of a low energy society was emphasised in order to embed the climate change decision problem in a wider range of societal concerns. Special emphasis was given to the characterisation and communication of uncertainties. The chosen approach allows different kinds of uncertainties in one framework to be addressed. The paper concludes with a summary of the experience made, and recommendations for the use of models in participatory integrated assessments.
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  • 7
    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Schlagwort(e): CLEAR ; natural climate variability ; climate change ; atmosphere ; ocean
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract Long-term variability in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic thermohaline ocean circulation (THC) are both shaping the European climate on time scales of decades and longer. Possible linear and non-linear changes in the characteristics of these natural climate modes due to global warming are an important source of uncertainty in long-term regional projections of future climate changes.
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  • 8
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Integrated assessment 1 (2000), S. 307-320 
    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; ecological impact assessment ; alpine and subalpine belts ; plant distribution ; statistical modeling ; local scale ; GIS ; GLM ; Swiss Alps
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract The potential ecological impact of ongoing climate change has been much discussed. High mountain ecosystems were identified early on as potentially very sensitive areas. Scenarios of upward species movement and vegetation shift are commonly discussed in the literature. Mountains being characteristically conic in shape, impact scenarios usually assume that a smaller surface area will be available as species move up. However, as the frequency distribution of additional physiographic factors (e.g., slope angle) changes with increasing elevation (e.g., with few gentle slopes available at higher elevation), species migrating upslope may encounter increasingly unsuitable conditions. As a result, many species could suffer severe reduction of their habitat surface, which could in turn affect patterns of biodiversity. In this paper, results from static plant distribution modeling are used to derive climate change impact scenarios in a high mountain environment. Models are adjusted with presence/absence of species. Environmental predictors used are: annual mean air temperature, slope, indices of topographic position, geology, rock cover, modeled permafrost and several indices of solar radiation and snow cover duration. Potential Habitat Distribution maps were drawn for 62 higher plant species, from which three separate climate change impact scenarios were derived. These scenarios show a great range of response, depending on the species and the degree of warming. Alpine species would be at greatest risk of local extinction, whereas species with a large elevation range would run the lowest risk. Limitations of the models and scenarios are further discussed.
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  • 9
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Environmental monitoring and assessment 64 (2000), S. 105-114 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Schlagwort(e): valley bottoms ; classification ; mapping ; GIS ; automated techniques
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract Accurate delineation and characterization of valley-bottom settings is crucial to the assessment of the biological and geomorphological components of riverine systems; yet, to date, most valley-bottom mapping endeavors have been done manually. To improve this situation, we developed automated techniques in a Geographic Information System (GIS) for delineating and characterizing valley-bottom settings in river basins ranging in size from approximately 1,000–10,000 km2. All procedures were developed with ARC/INFO GIS software and fully automated in Arc Macro Language (AML). The GRID module is required for valley-bottom delineation and slope calculations; whereas characterization (i.e., measuring the width of the valley-bottom zone) requires Coordinate Geometry (COGO) in the ARCEDIT module. The process requires three inputs: a polygon coverage of the analysis area; an arc coverage of its hydrography, and a grid representing its digital elevation. The AML is designed to operate within a wide range of computer memory/disk space options, and it allows users to customize several procedures to match the scale and complexity of a given analysis area with available computer hardware.
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  • 10
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Schlagwort(e): carbon monoxide ; traffic management ; transport mode ; GIS
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract The exposure to CO of schoolchildren was assessed in the town of Northampton, UK, both by direct measurement and by GIS-based activity modelling. Personal measurement of CO showed that exposures when travelling by car were significantly greater than those when walking, although journey times by car were shorter. However, journey exposures had little effect on maximum 8h mean CO exposures. CO concentration fields in the study area were modelled from current traffic flows, and those expected under different traffic management scenarios. These fields were then used, in combination with children's home and school location, and their activity profiles, to simulate frequency distributions of exposure for different transport modes and traffic management scenarios. The results show a large variability in the effect of traffic management interventions, depending on the child's home and school location.
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  • 11
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Water resources management 14 (2000), S. 137-156 
    ISSN: 1573-1650
    Schlagwort(e): climate adaptation ; climate change ; droughtmanagement ; England and Wales water supply
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract In this article, the relationship between U.K. watercompanies' perceptions of past climatic extremes andtheir effect on resilience to future climatic changeis explored. Perceptions and activities related topast and future dry periods was investigated throughinterviews with managers at the ten major English andWelsh water supply/sewerage companies, and severalsmaller, water-only companies. Several of thecompanies report that they have observed a trendtowards drier summers in their regions, and a number of companies say that they have observed a changetowards more intensive rainfall of shorter duration. Recent supply measures in a number of regions havebeen aimed at improving storage and distributionrelated to the perceived change in rainfall intensity.A new requirement to incorporate regional climatechange scenarios in future supply assumptions appearsto have had little impact on planning in the region todate. Many water resource planners believe that thescenarios generated are too aggregated and do notencourage a precautionary approach to planning. Somemanagers believe that records of historical droughtconditions, such as experienced in 1933/1934 or 1995/1996,as worst-case scenarios provide a better basis for planning.
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  • 12
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Environmental and resource economics 15 (2000), S. 135-148 
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; overlapping generations models
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Notizen: Abstract The artifice of an infinitely-lived representative agent iscommonly invoked to balance the present costs and future benefitsof climate stabilization policies. Since actual economies arepopulated by overlapping generations of finite-lived persons,this approach begs important questions of welfare aggregation.This paper compares the results of representative agent andoverlapping generations models that are numerically calibratedbased on standard assumptions regarding climate--economyinteractions. Under two social choice rules -- Pareto efficiencyand classical utilitarianism -- the models generate closelysimilar simulation results. In the absence of policies toredistribute income between present and future generations,efficient rates of carbon dioxide emissions abatement rise from15 to 20% between the years 2000 and 2105. Under classicalutilitarianism, in contrast, optimal control rates rise from 48 to 79% this same period.
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  • 13
    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Schlagwort(e): participatory integrated assessment ; methodology ; focus groups ; computer models ; uncertainty
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract Integrated assessment (IA) can be defined as a structured process of dealing with complex issues, using knowledge from various scientific disciplines and/or stakeholders, such that integrated insights are made available to decision makers (J. Rotmans, Enviromental Modelling and Assessment 3 (1998) 155). There is a growing recognition that the participation of stakeholders is a vital element of IA. However, only little is known about methodological requirements for such participatory IA and possible insights to be gained from these approaches. This paper summarizes some of the experiences gathered in the ULYSSES project, which aims at developing procedures that are able to bridge the gap between environmental science and democratic policy making for the issue of climate change. The discussion is based on a total of 52 IA focus groups with citizens, run in six European and one US city. In these groups, different computer models were used, ranging from complex and dynamic global models to simple accounting tools. The analysis in this paper focuses on the role of the computer models. The findings suggest that the computer models were successful at conveying to participants the temporal and spatial scale of climate change, the complexity of the system and the uncertainties in our understanding of it. However, most participants felt that the computer models were less instrumental for the exploration of policy options. Furthermore, both research teams and participants agreed that despite considerable efforts, most models were not sufficiently user-friendly and transparent for being accessed in an IA focus group. With that background, some methodological conclusions are drawn about the inclusion of the computer models in the deliberation process. Furthermore, some suggestions are made about how given models should be adapted and new ones developed in order to be helpful for participatory IA.
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  • 14
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Integrated assessment 1 (2000), S. 331-338 
    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; mountain agriculture ; tourism ; participatory integrated assessment ; focus groups
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract Winter tourism and mountain agriculture are the most important economic sectors in a major part of the Swiss Alps. Both are highly sensitive to changing climatic conditions. In the framework of the CLEAR project, results from climate impact research in the field of tourism and agricultural production were used to investigate the perception of climatic change by stakeholders and to assess possible adaptations. We used a participatory integrated assessment (PIA) to involve the knowledge, values and experiences of the various social actors in tourism and agriculture (e.g., skiers, tourism managers, farmers) in the research process. Whereas climate change may have various severe direct impacts on the tourism industry, depending on the region, agricultural production may generally benefit from changed climatic conditions. But because of the dependence of farmers on “off-farm” income, the loss due to declining winter tourism in specific areas may cause more important indirect effects. However, the two sectors may adapt actively by choosing from a variety of strategies, and the loss of income from the tourism industry may support the re-evaluation of the various functions agriculture plays in mountain regions, beyond the production of food. The study demonstrates the suitability of the PIA approach to elucidate the interactions between different stakeholders and their perception of the climate change phenomena. A similar participatory approach could be a useful tool to transfer research results and expert knowledge to the political process addressing adaptations to climate change.
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  • 15
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Environmental and resource economics 17 (2000), S. 163-181 
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Schlagwort(e): carbon emissions inequality ; climate change ; global warming
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Notizen: Abstract This paper analyzes future carbon emissions inequality using a group decomposition of the Gini index. Business-as-usual projections to the year 2100 for 135 countries show inequality in per capita emissions declines slowly. Next, the impact on emissions levels and inequality of the Kyoto Protocol and other abatement proposals for Annex II countries in 2010 are measured, with a focus on the gap-narrowing and reranking effects. Substantial reranking of per capita emissions between Annex II and non-Annex II countries will not occur unless the former reduce their emissions by at least 50% (versus 1990 levels) and the latter continue growing unabated.
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  • 16
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Integrated assessment 1 (2000), S. 127-136 
    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Schlagwort(e): integrated assessments ; climate change ; discounting ; equity ; climate policy
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract A standard framework is presented as an underlying model for the discounting debate. Views and proposals for the techniques and rates of discounting are assessed. Alternative modeling frameworks for studying intergenerational equity issues are evaluated with the result that the basic insights they provide do not differ very much. Results from model experiments involving different discount rate proposals show that fudging the discount rate does not lead to efficient climate policy. Three major clusters of opinions are identified regarding the applicability of cost-benefit analysis to the climate change problem and the appropriate discount rate to use. It is concluded that under some very special circumstances the cost-benefit rule should be abandoned and cost-effective strategies implying standard discount rates should be sought to reach clearly defined and justified environmental targets.
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  • 17
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 5 (2000), S. 361-377 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): carbon budget ; climate change ; desertification ; international environmental institutions ; land degradation ; research convergence ; science policy
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract Poor knowledge of links between desertification and globalclimate change is limiting funding from the Global Environment Facility foranti-desertification projects and realization of synergies between theConvention to Combat Desertification (CCD) and the FrameworkConvention on Climate Change (FCCC). Greater convergence betweenresearch in the two fields could overcome these limitations, improve ourknowledge of desertification, and benefit four areas of global climate changestudies: mitigation assessment; accounting for land cover change in thecarbon budget; land surface-atmosphere interactions; and climate changeimpact forecasting. Convergence would be assisted if desertification weretreated more as a special case in dry areas of the global process of landdegradation, and stimulated by: (a) closer cooperation between the FCCCand CCD; (b) better informal networking between desertification and globalclimate change scientists, e.g. within the framework of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Both strategies wouldbe facilitated if the FCCC and CCD requested the IPCC to provide ascientific framework for realizing the synergies between them.
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  • 18
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 5 (2000), S. 379-406 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; Ethiopia ; historical analogy ; migration ; vulnerability
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract Climate change has been presented as a likely trigger formigration of people, especially in dryland areas of less developed countries.The underlying research questions focus on the strength of adaptationcapacity of subsistence farmers in Northern Ethiopia, and evaluate historicalexperiences gained from drought-induced migration. Through a survey of104 peasants who had to migrant due to persistent drought, vulnerabilityto climate change has shown to be a complex issue, including themultiplicity of factors comprising a household environment. Still, to bevulnerable does not make someone a potential climate migrant, as peoplein marginal regions have developed a great variety of adaptationmechanisms, which strengthen their ability to cope with both, slow climaticchanges and extreme climatic events.
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  • 19
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Water resources management 14 (2000), S. 177-189 
    ISSN: 1573-1650
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; Sweden ; water balance models ; water resources
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract This article describes investigationsinto the effects of climate change on flow regimes oftwenty-five catchments (from 6 to 1293 km2) incentral Sweden. Hydrological responses of fifteenhypothetical climate change scenarios (e.g.combinations of ΔT = +1, +2 and +4 °C andΔP = 0, ± 10%, ± 20%) were simulated by a conceptual monthly water balance model. The results suggest thatall the hypothetical climate change scenarios wouldcause major decreases in winter snow accumulation.Significant increase of winter flow and decrease ofspring and summer runoff were resulted from mostscenarios. Attendant changes in actualevapotranspiration were also examined for all climatechange scenarios. Despite the changes in seasonaldistribution of evapotranspiration, the change inannual total evapotranspiration was relatively smallwith the maximum change of 23% compared with the 76%for mean annual snow water equivalent changes and 52%for mean annual runoff changes. Such hydrologicresults would have significant implications on futurewater resources design and management.
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  • 20
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    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Water resources management 14 (2000), S. 369-376 
    ISSN: 1573-1650
    Schlagwort(e): GIUH ; design flood ; GIS ; flood hydrograph
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract Quantitative understanding and prediction of theprocesses of runoff generation and its transmission to theoutlet represent one of the most basic and challenging areasof hydrology. Traditional techniques for design floodestimation use historical rainfall-runoff data for unithydrograph derivation. Such techniques have been widelyapplied for the estimation of design flood hydrograph at thesites of gauged catchment. For ungauged catchments, unithydrograph may be derived using either regional unithydrograph approach or alternatively GeomorhologicalInstantaneous Unit Hydrograph (GIUH) approach. The unithydrograph thus derived may be used for the simulation offlood events for the ungauged catchments. In this study Gambhiri dam catchment located inRajasthan, India is selected for applying this approach. Gambhiri river is a small tributary of the Berach/Banasriver of the Chambal basin in Rajasthan, India. Theobjective of the present study is to apply GeographicalInformation System (GIS) supported GIUH approach for theestimation of design flood. A mathematical model has beendeveloped at the National Institute of Hydrology, whichenables the evaluation of the Clark Model parameters usinggeomorphological characteristics of the basin. This modelhas been applied for the present study.From this study it is observed that the peakcharacteristics of the design flood are more sensitive tothe various storm pattern as well as method of criticalsequencing followed for the computation of design stormpatterns. Earlier estimates for the peak and time to peakhydrograph was 9143.74 cumec and 18 hrs. respectively.However, the estimates for the peak characteristics ofdesign flood hydrograph obtained from the GIUH basedapproach are 11870.6 cumec and 19 hrs. respectivelyconsidering the same design storm pattern.
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  • 21
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Human ecology 28 (2000), S. 527-560 
    ISSN: 1572-9915
    Schlagwort(e): pastoralism ; GIS ; Sukuma ; Tanzania
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Biologie , Energietechnik , Ethnologie
    Notizen: Abstract Understanding landscape-scale patterns of herding is critical in identifying and assessing the impacts of pastoral grazing. Here, a general model of herding is developed based on the Sukuma agropastoral system in the Rukwa Valley, Tanzania. Using this conceptual framework, the factors affecting the maximum distances herds travel from home and the distribution of grazing around pastoral settlements are examined. The distribution of dry season water structured the landscape-scale distribution of grazing throughout the year, not just during the dry season. Water availability strongly affected the distances herds ranged from home in the dry season and the distribution of grazing around pastoral settlements throughout the year. Associations between cattle productivity and herding practices were also examined. The effects of traveling further from home, keeping cattle in large herds, and using/living in areas of high settlement densities were examined on the following measures of productivity: intake rates, foraging behavior, milk yields, and body conditions. Cattle from larger herds were observed to walk more while actively foraging and engage in more walking bouts (taking ten steps without taking a bite). The increased walking of large herds may explain why they range farther from home and highlight the importance and ubiquity of herd splitting among pastoralists. However, herd size effects were not apparent in intake rates or milk yields. Milk yields were negatively affected by traveling farther from home. These data demonstrate substantial variability within herding populations and show interesting similarities with herding systems in substantially more arid areas.
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  • 22
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    Environmental modeling and assessment 5 (2000), S. 157-168 
    ISSN: 1573-2967
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; crops ; carbon dioxide ; economic welfare
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract Increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide CO2 have a beneficial effect on crop production that would tend to offset some of the economic losses that might be generated in some areas by the climatic effects of atmospheric CO2 and other greenhouse gases. Previous estimates of the economic benefits of CO2 fertilization on world crop production, however, were based on the assumption that percent changes in supply are equal to percent changes in yield. This assumption is not valid, however, because it confounds changes in supply with changes in quantity supplied. This error leads to an overestimation of the real economic benefits of CO2 fertilization by 61–166%. The effects of CO2 fertilization on crop production, therefore, will reduce some of the potential damages caused by the climatic impacts of greenhouse gases, but by significantly less than that indicated in earlier research.
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  • 23
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 61 (2000), S. 133-144 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Schlagwort(e): adaptation scenarios ; climate change ; agriculture ; Poland
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract This paper demonstrates the ability of Polish agriculture to adapt to predicted climate change according to GISS and GFDL scenarios. Both climate-change scenarios will significantly affect farming conditions in Poland through water deficit, shifts in planting and harvesting seasons, changes in crop yields and crop structure. Neither scenario seems to endanger the self-sufficiency of Poland as long as preventative measures are taken. Moreover, the realization of GISS creates the possibility of a surplus in production. It must be emphasized that regardless of the scenario, the adaptation of agriculture to an expected climate change cannot be handled by the farming community itself.
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  • 24
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 61 (2000), S. 161-166 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Schlagwort(e): adaptation measures ; water resources ; climate change ; Central Asia
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract A large part of the Central Asian region is located within the inner flow of the Aral Sea basin. The water resources are formed from renewed superficial and underground waters of natural origin, and also with returnable waters. The intensive increase of water intake, that took place in the second half of the twentieth century caused practically complete assimilation of the river inflow. That was the main reason for the Aral Sea crisis. On the basis of the analysis of long periodical rows of observation by meterological and hydrological stations, the estimation of regional water resources and calculations of changes of some components of the hydrological cycle due to the expected climate changes are presented. Measures for adaptation in the southern part of the Aral Sea region are considered.
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  • 25
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 61 (2000), S. 187-191 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; adaptation ; water resources ; China
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract It is indicated that up to the year 2030, the annual average temperatures in China will increase by 0.88 to 1.2°C, with increments in the south less than in the north. Annual average precipitation would raise slightly, but the increment could be 4% in northeastern China. The increment of annual mean runoff could rise over 6% in the northeastern area, and decrease in the other regions 1.4 to 10.5%. The increased water shortage due to climate change could achieve 160 to 5090 million m3 in some areas of China. Financial loss due to the lack of water could reach 1300 million yuan, and up to 4400 million yuan in serious drought years in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan area.
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  • 26
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 62 (2000), S. 261-272 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Schlagwort(e): boreal forests ; climate change ; ecosystem theory ; nonlinear thermodynamics ; resource management
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract Over the past two centuries progressive anthropogenicperturbations to natural, boreal forest-climateinteractions have contributed increasingly to awidespread transition from coniferous to deciduouslandscapes. This transition is associated withchanges, at boreal latitudes, in temperature,photosynthetic activity, atmospheric CO2 andspring snow cover. These signals convey thediminished capacity of boreal landscapes to store andcycle materials and energy.
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  • 27
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 61 (2000), S. 9-35 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; risk ; adaptation ; thresholds ; limits
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract Adaptation in response to anthropogenic climate change seeks to maintain viability by maximising benefits and minimising losses. It is necessary because some climatic change is now inevitable, despite the international focus on mitigation measures. Indeed, the measures agreed at Kyoto would by themselves result in only a small reduction in the climate changes to be expected over the next century. Discussion of the expected changes and possible impacts leads to the following conclusions regarding climate change scenarios in relation to impacts and adaptation: • Climate change in the foreseeable future will not be some new stable "equilibrium" climate, but rather an ongoing "transient" process; • Climate change predictions relevant to impacts on most sectors and ecosystems are still highly uncertain; • There is a need for a greater focus on developing countries and tropical regions, and on relevant key variables, including the magnitude and frequency of extreme events; • The focus should shift from single predictions, or extreme ranges of uncertainty, to risk assessment; • Thresholds critical to impacted sectors and ecosystems should be identified, and expressed as functions of climatic variables; • Planned adaptations will be necessary to cope with multiple stresses, including those due to non-climatic changes; • A major task of adaptation science is to identify the limits of adaptation, i.e., to identify "dangerous levels of greenhouse gases" beyond which adaptation becomes impractical or prohibitively expensive.
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  • 28
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 61 (2000), S. 75-92 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; mitigation ; market instruments ; Costa Rica
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract Two decades of developing relevant legal and institutional regimes for the sustainable and nondestructive use of natural resources have framed Costa Rica's pioneer approach to mitigate climate change and conserve its rich biological diversity. This policy framework provides an appropriate context for the actual and proposed development of market instruments designed to attract capital investments for carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation, and allows the establishment of mechanisms to use those funds to compensate owners for the environmental services provided by their land. As a developing economy. Costa Rica is striving to internalize the benefits from the environmental services it offers, as a cornerstone of its sustainable development strategy.
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  • 29
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 61 (2000), S. 65-74 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Schlagwort(e): biodiversity ; climate variability ; climate change ; adaptation ; institutional reform
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract If current trends continue, human activities will drastically alter most of the planet's remaining natural ecosystems and their composite biota within a few decades. Compounding the impacts on biodiversity from deleterious management practices is climate variability and change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently concluded that there is ample evidence to suggest climate change is likely to result in significant impacts on biological diversity. These impacts are likely to be exacerbated by the secondary effects of climate change such as changes in the occurrence of wildfire, insect outbreaks and similar disturbances. Current changes in climate are very different from those of the past due to their rate and magnitude, the direct effects of increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations and because highly modified landscapes and an array of threatening processes limit the ability of terrestrial ecosystems and species to respond to changed conditions. One of the primary human adaptation option for conserving biodiversity is considered to be changes in management. The complex and overarching nature of climate change issues emphasises the need for greatly enhanced cooperation between scientists, policy makers, industry and the community to better understand key interactions and identify options for adaptation. A key challenge is to identify opportunities that facilitate sustainable development by making use of existing technologies and developing policies that enhance the resilience of climate-sensitive sectors. Measures to enhance the resilience of biodiversity must be considered in all of these activities if many ecosystem services essential to humanity are to be sustained. New institutional arrangements appear necessary at the regional and national level to ensure that policy initiatives and research directed at assessing and mitigating the vulnerability of biodiversity to climate change are complementary and undertaken strategically and cost-effectively. Policy implementation at the national level to meet responsibilities arising from the UNFCCC (e.g., the Kyoto Protocol) and the UN Convention on Biological Diversity require greater coordination and integration between economic sectors, since many primary drivers of biodiversity loss and vulnerability are influenced at this level. A case study from the Australian continent is used to illustrate several key issues and discuss a basis for reform, including recommendations for facilitating adaptation to climate variability and change.
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  • 30
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 61 (2000), S. 49-64 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; El Niño Southern Oscillation ; public health ; adaptation ; primary prevention
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract Global climate change is likely to have a range of consequences for human health as a result of disturbance or weakening of the biosphere's natural or human-managed life support systems. The full range of potential human health impacts of global climate change is diverse and would be distributed differentially spatially and over time. Changes in the mortality toll of heatwaves and changes in the distribution of vector-borne infectious diseases may occur early. The public health consequences of sea level rise and of regional changes in agricultural productivity may not occur (or become apparent) for several decades. Vulnerability is a measure of both sensitivity to climate change and the ability to adapt in anticipation of, or in response to, its impacts. The basic modes of adaptation to climate-induced health hazards are biological, behavioural and social. Adaptation can be undertaken at the individual, community and whole-population levels. Adaptive strategies should not introduce new health hazards. Enhancement of the acknowledged public health infrastructure and intervention programmes is essential to reduce vulnerability to the health impacts of climate change. In the longer-term, fundamental improvements in the social and material conditions of life and in the reduction of inequalities within and between populations are required for sustained reduction in vulnerability to environmental health hazards.
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  • 31
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 61 (2000), S. 37-48 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Schlagwort(e): adaptation ; climate change ; integration ; impacts
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract A mechanism has been established to improve integration of international climate-related programmes. Known as the Climate Agenda it outlines a programme, that in a cost-effective way, responds to national obligations to respond to international agreements as well as their national needs for social and economic development. The paper briefly describes the Climate Agenda and the incorporation within it of studies of climate impact assessments and response strategies to reduce vulnerability. The need for increased emphasis on climate impact assessment and for the development of effective adaptation measures is emphasised following the elaboration of a Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). UNEP's efforts to identify national programmes contributing to the Climate Agenda are described. The response from developing countries has, however, been very disappointing, even from countries where we know work is ongoing through funding by GEF or US Country Studies Program and other bilateral programmes. Initial compilation of information available so far shows that many developed countries are putting a lot into the area of impact assessment of not just climate change, but also climate variability. There remain some research gaps, especially in the area of assessment of climate impacts on ecosystems, hydrological systems, etc. Considerable efforts are presently being directed at reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases and in the case of developing countries, most efforts are being directed towards completing national communications and providing baseline data for future studies. The paper refers to early activities by UNEP in cooperation with other international organizations to undertake integrated assessments of the impacts of climate change on important socio-economic sectors and the later incorporation of lessons learned into the IPCC Guidelines for Assessing Impacts of Climate Change. Later sections outline the development of a handbook on methods for climate change impact assessment and adaptation strategies as a practical approach to national assessments and the development of appropriate and cost-effective response to climate change. The initiation of a GEF-funded project to apply the methods contained in the handbook and improve the results based on national studies is also described for both developed and developing countries. Working in collaboration with a team of international experts under the coordination of the Institute of Environmental Studies at Vrije University (Amsterdam), the goal of this ongoing project is to develop a valuable methodological tool that Parties to the UNFCCC may apply to develop national climate change impact and adaptation assessments. Development of these guidelines was linked to a series of country studies in Antigua and Barbuda, Estonia, Cameroon and Pakistan funded under a UNEP/GEF project. The application of the first version of the UNEP Handbook by national study teams in these four countries is making valuable technical and practical contributions and will ensure that the next version of the Handbook will be a more useful tool for experts in developing countries undertaking similar studies in the future. The methods contained in the Handbook are also the basis for similar assessments funded under bilateral development programmes in other countries. These and similar studies elsewhere are coordinated with the UNEP programme and will eventually aim to create reliable and comparable assessments, a compatible set of tools for such purpose and the identification of realistic adaptation options for incorporation into national planning for adapting to climate change. The paper also addresses how climate impact assessment and response strategies are undertaken as part of national enabling activities carried out in co-operation with UNEP.
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  • 32
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 61 (2000), S. 113-122 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Schlagwort(e): Amazon ; Brazil ; deforestation ; carbon sink ; climate change ; climatic variability ; forest conservation ; habitat fragmentation ; logging ; tropical forests
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract This paper describes four global-change phenomena that are having major impacts on Amazonian forests. The first is accelerating deforestation and logging. Despite recent government initiatives to slow forest loss, deforestation rates in Brazilian Amazonia have increased from 1.1 million ha yr−1 in the early 1990s, to nearly 1.5 million ha yr−1 from 1992–1994, and to more than 1.9 million ha yr−1 from 1995–1998. Deforestation is also occurring rapidly in some other parts of the Amazon Basin, such as in Bolivia and Ecuador, while industrialized logging is increasing dramatically in the Guianas and central Amazonia. The second phenomenon is that patterns of forest loss and fragmentation are rapidly changing. In recent decades, large-scale deforestation has mainly occurred in the southern and eastern portions of the Amazon — in the Brazilian states of Pará, Maranhāo, Rondônia, Acre, and Mato Grosso, and in northern Bolivia. While rates of forest loss remain very high in these areas, the development of major new highways is providing direct conduits into the heart of the Amazon. If future trends follow past patterns, land-hungry settlers and loggers may largely bisect the forests of the Amazon Basin. The third phenomenon is that climatic variability is interacting with human land uses, creating additional impacts on forest ecosystems. The 1997/98 El Niño drought, for example, led to a major increase in forest burning, with wildfires raging out of control in the northern Amazonian state of Roraima and other locations. Logging operations, which create labyrinths of roads and tracks in forsts, are increasing fuel loads, desiccation and ignition sources in forest interiors. Forest fragmentation also increases fire susceptibility by creating dry, fire-prone forest edges. Finally, recent evidence suggests that intact Amazonian forests are a globally significant carbon sink, quite possibly caused by higher forest growth rates in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 fertilization. Evidence for a carbon sink comes from long-term forest mensuration plots, from whole-forest studies of carbon flux and from investigations of atmospheric CO2 and oxygen isotopes. Unfortunately, intact Amazonian forests are rapidly diminishing. Hence, not only is the destruction of these forests a major source of greenhouse gases, but it is reducing their intrinsic capacity to help buffer the rapid anthropogenic rise in CO2.
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  • 33
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 61 (2000), S. 145-159 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; adaptation ; economic development
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract Many developing countries, especially in Africa, contribute only very small amounts to the world total of greenhouse gas emissions. For them, the reduction of such emissions is not a priority, and the more important issue is to find ways to reduce their vulnerability to the projected climate change which is being imposed upon them largely as a result of emissions from developed countries. This priority does not accord with the ultimate objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which is to achieve stabilization of greenhouse gas emissions. This paper reports upon studies in Uganda designed to help in the development of a national adaptation strategy, and addresses the need to reconcile such a strategy with the global priority accorded to mitigation and with national economic development priorities. Some features of a national climate change adaptation strategy are identified and questions are raised about the need for an international regime to facilitate and support adaptation.
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  • 34
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 61 (2000), S. 193-205 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Schlagwort(e): human settlements ; climate change ; adaptation ; Africa
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract Climate change impacts on African human settlements arise from a number of climate change-related causes, notably sea level changes, impacts on water resources, extreme weather events, food security, increased health risks from vector home diseases, and temperature-related morbidity in urban environments. Some coastlines and river deltas of Africa have densely populated low-lying areas, which would be affected by a rise in sea level. Other coastal settlements will be subjected to increased coastal erosion. Recent flooding in East Africa highlighted the vulnerability of flood plain settlements and the need to develop adaptive strategies for extreme weather events management and mitigation. In the semi arid and arid zones many settlements are associated with inland drainage water sources. Increases in drought will enhance water supply related vulnerabilities. Inter-basin and international water transfers raise the need for adequate legal frameworks that ensure equity among participating nations. Similarly, water supply and irrigation reservoirs in seasonal river catchments might fail, leading to poor sanitation in urban areas as well as food shortage. Hydroelectric power generation could be restricted in drought periods, and where it is a major contributor to the energy budget, reduced power generation could lead to a multiplicity of other impacts. States are advised to develop other sources of renewable energy. Temperature changes will lead to altered distribution of disease vectors such as mosquitoes, making settlements currently free of vector borne diseases vulnerable. Rapid breeding of the housefly could create a menace associated with enteric disorders, especially in conditions of poor sanitation. The dry savannahs of Africa are projected as possible future food deficit areas. Recurrent crop failures would lead to transmigration into urban areas. Pastoralists are likely to undertake more trans-boundary migrations and probably come into conflict with settled communities. Adaptive measures will involve methods of coastal defences (where applicable), a critical review of the energy sector, both regionally and nationally, a rigorous adherence to city hygiene procedures, an informed agricultural industry that is capable of adapting to changing climate in terms of cropping strategies, and innovations in environment design to maximise human comfort at minimum energy expenditure. In the savannah and arid areas water resource management systems will be needed to optimise water resource use and interstate co-operation where such resources are shared. Climate change issues discussed here raise the need for state support for more research and education in impacts of climate change on human settlements in Africa.
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  • 35
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 64 (2000), S. 213-225 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Schlagwort(e): biodiversity ; butterflies ; birds ; climate change ; montane vegetation ; remote sensing ; Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract We used a time series of satellite multispectral imagery for mapping and monitoring six classes of montane meadows arrayed along a moisture gradient (from hydric to mesic to xeric). We hypothesized that mesic meadows would support the highest species diversity of plants, birds, and butterflies because they are more moderate environments. We also hypothesized that mesic meadows would exhibit the greatest seasonal and interannual variability in spectral response across years. Field sampling in each of the meadow types was conducted for plants, birds, and butterflies in 1997 and 1998. Mesic meadows supported the highest plant species diversity, but there was no significant difference in bird or butterfly species diversity among meadow types. These data show that it may be easier to detect significant differences in more species rich taxa (e.g., plants) than taxa that are represented by fewer species (e.g., butterflies and birds). Mesic meadows also showed the greatest seasonal and interannual variability in spectral response. Given the rich biodiversity of mesic montane meadows and their sensitivity to variations in temperature and moisture, they may be important to monitor in the context of environmental change
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  • 36
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Schlagwort(e): watershed modeling simulation ; surface water hydrology ; GIS
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract Hydrologic response is an integrated indicator of watershed condition, and significant changes in land cover may affect the overall health and function of a watershed. This paper describes a procedure for evaluating the effects of land cover change and rainfall spatial variability on watershed response. Two hydrologic models were applied on a small semi-arid watershed; one model is event-based with a one-minute time step (KINEROS), and the second is a continuous model with a daily time step (SWAT). The inputs to the models were derived from Geographic Information System (GIS) theme layers of USGS digital elevation models, the State Soil Geographic Database (STATSGO) and the Landsat-based North American Landscape Characterization classification (NALC) in conjunction with available literature and look up tables. Rainfall data from a network of 10 raingauges and historical stream flow data were used to calibrate runoff depth using the continuous hydrologic model from 1966 to 1974. No calibration was carried out for the event-based model, in which six storms from the same period were used in the calculation of runoff depth and peak runoff. The assumption on which much of this study is based is that land cover change and rainfall spatial variability affect the rainfall-runoff relationships on the watershed. To validate this assumption, simulations were carried out wherein the entire watershed was transformed from the 1972 NALC land cover, which consisted of a mixture of desertscrub and grassland, to a single uniform land cover type such as riparian, forest, oak woodland, mesquite woodland, desertscrub, grassland, urban, agriculture, and barren. This study demonstrates the feasibility of using widely available data sets for parameterizing hydrologic simulation models. The simulation results show that both models were able to characterize the runoff response of the watershed due to changes of land cover.
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  • 37
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    Studia geophysica et geodaetica 44 (2000), S. 57-72 
    ISSN: 1573-1626
    Schlagwort(e): extreme events ; heat wave ; tropical day ; climate change
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Notizen: Abstract Heat waves (periods of extremely hot summer weather) in the region of south Moravia are in the focus of this study. The introduced definition consists of three requirements imposed on the period that is considered a heat wave: at least three days with T MAX ≥30.0°C must be observed; the mean T MAX over the whole period is at least 30.0°C; and T MAX must not drop below 25.0°C. To compare the severity of the individual heat waves, various characteristics (duration, number of tropical days, peak temperature, cumulative temperature excess, precipitation amount) are examined. The heat wave index HWI is defined to express the severity of heat waves in the most comprehensive way. An extraordinary heat wave occurred in July and August 1994; it lasted more than a month at several stations, while the duration of a typical heat wave is only 4 - 7 days. The extremely long unbroken period of tropical days, and even of days with T MAX ≥32.0°C, represents the most distinct feature of the severe 1994 heat wave. With regard to heat wave characteristics, the summer temperature exceptionality of the early 1990s is indubitable.
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  • 38
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    Water, air & soil pollution 123 (2000), S. 259-271 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; greenhouse gases ; greenhouse gases in Israel ; inventory of emissions of greenhouse gases
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract As a Party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Israel is committed to develop a national inventory of anthropogenic emissions and removals of greenhouse gases. This paper presents the national inventory, which was developed according to the guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The inventory includes the following sectors: energy, industrial processes, agriculture, forestry and waste. In this paper, only the inventory of the direct greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4 and N2O) is presented. Emissions of these gases were converted to CO2 equivalent emissions by means of their Global Warming Potentials (a measure of the radiative effects of the different gases relatively to CO2). CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels to produce energy are by far the largest source (50 million tons in 1996). The contribution of methane emissions from decomposition of landfilled municipal solid waste is second in importance (8 million tons of CO2 equivalent). Industrial processes emit about 2 million tons CO2 equivalent, the most important process being cement production. Agricultural emissions amount to about 2 million tons CO2 equivalent and are due to soil emissions of nitrous oxide, methane emissions from enteric fermentation in domestic livestock and N2O and CH4 emissions from animal waste management. Although most forests in Israel are in a growing stage and atmospheric CO2 is therefore removed to form biomass, this removal amounts to 0.4 million tons only and is very small as compared to emissions from other sectors. On a per capita basis, Israel's emissions of CO2 from fuel combustion are not far behind those of some of the most developed countries.
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  • 39
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    Integrated assessment 1 (2000), S. 1-19 
    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; technology policy ; uncertainty ; agent-based modeling ; exploratory modeling ; social interactions
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract Many governments use technology incentives as an important component of their greenhouse gas abatement strategies. These “carrots” are intended to encourage the initial diffusion of new, greenhouse-gas-emissions-reducing technologies, in contrast to carbon taxes and emissions trading which provide a “stick” designed to reduce emissions by increasing the price of high-emitting technologies for all users. Technology incentives appear attractive, but their record in practice is mixed and economic theory suggests that in the absence of market failures, they are inefficient compared to taxes and trading. This study uses an agent-based model of technology diffusion and exploratory modeling, a new technique for decision-making under conditions of extreme uncertainty, to examine the conditions under which technology incentives should be a key building block of robust climate change policies. We find that a combined strategy of carbon taxes and technology incentives, as opposed to carbon taxes alone, is the best approach to greenhouse gas emissions reductions if the social benefits of early adoption sufficiently exceed the private benefits. Such social benefits can occur when economic actors have a wide variety of cost/performance preferences for new technologies and either new technologies have increasing returns to scale or potential adopters can reduce their uncertainty about the performance of new technologies by querying the experience of other adopters. We find that if decision-makers hold even modest expectations that such social benefits are significant or that the impacts of climate change will turn out to be serious then technology incentive programs may be a promising hedge against the threat of climate change.
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  • 40
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    Journal for general philosophy of science 25 (1994), S. 157-175 
    ISSN: 1572-8587
    Schlagwort(e): Philosophy ; science ; linguistics ; psychology ; history ; progress of science ; incommensurability ; paradigm ; paradigm-change ; methodology
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Philosophie , Wissenschaftskunde und Wissenschaftsorganisation, Hochschul- und Universitätswesen, Museumswissenschaft
    Notizen: Summary The report gives a survey of the Hungarian philosophy of science after 1973. The report throws some light on the history of Hungarian philosophy in the context of the political circumstances of the late sixties and seventies. It starts with the not so well-known history of ‘persecution of philosophers’ in 1973. Then it treats the emergence of the philosophy of science focussing on the most significant representatives of this branch of philosophy, which was up to that time almost unknown in Hungary. Due to the fact that the important results in Hungarian philosophy of science run parallel with the reception and translation of the significant products of Western philosophy, such as Wittgenstein's, Popper's, Kuhn's, or Polanyi's works, the report gives relatively significant room to treat these achievements. The last part of the report presents a survey of the younger generation of the philosophers of science, concentrating on the most important insights.
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  • 41
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    Journal for general philosophy of science 25 (1994), S. 207-222 
    ISSN: 1572-8587
    Schlagwort(e): methodology ; history of 19th century physics ; history of electromagnetism ; subjective activity in research process ; bifurcations in science ; principles of theory valuation
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Philosophie , Wissenschaftskunde und Wissenschaftsorganisation, Hochschul- und Universitätswesen, Museumswissenschaft
    Notizen: Summary Alternatives in the History of Science. The paper deals with the function of the scientist's subjective activity in the research process. This will be discussed at the background of the discourse between distant action and narrow action theories of electromagnetism in 19th century physics. The analysis shows in which high degree the protagonists of these theories (Weber, Maxwell) regarded this situation consciously as a bifurcation (alternative) in the development of their science. This article describes then how the history of science values the case. The result of this valuation is dependent on the different philosophical points of view. Finally we point out some desiderata for the further discussion on methodology of science that would be the consequence of the acknowledgement of real bifurcations in scientific thought.
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  • 42
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
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    Environmental management 18 (1994), S. 767-773 
    ISSN: 1432-1009
    Schlagwort(e): Road salt ; Statistics ; Streams ; Pollution ; GIS ; NaCl
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract A multiple regression model of atmospheric deposition of salt, combined with geographic information systems (GIS) data on four classes of roads, is used to predict sodium concentrations in 162 randomly chosen streams in Massachusetts. All four classes of roads, as well as atmospheric deposition, were found to be highly significant in a model that explains 68% of the observed variation in sodium concentration. The highest salt loading rates are associated with interstate and major state roads with an estimated 22,500 and 17,700 kg of salt per kilometer, respectively. Our mass balance calculations indicate road salt is the major source of salt to the streams in Massachusetts. We examined some of the common statistical problems associated with the use of multiple regression for this type of analysis. Our confidence in the accuracy of the loading rates estimated above are limited by the collinear nature of environmental data and uncertainties related to model specification. Our results suggest multiple regression techniques can lead to overconfidence in the accuracy of the estimated loading rates and thus should not be used as the basis for policy unless the model is validated.
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  • 43
    ISSN: 1432-1009
    Schlagwort(e): Himalayas ; Deforestation ; Watershed ; GIS
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract GIS overlay techniques were used to provide a quantitative historic documentation of deforestation and land-use dynamics in the Middle Mountains of Nepal between 1947 and 1990. Deforestation was most critical in the 1960s, but active afforestation programs in the 1980s have reversed the process. In spite of these trends, the degradation problem is more complex. The GIS evaluation showed that 86% of the recently afforested land is now under pine plantations located primarily at lower elevations and moderately steep slopes. In contrast, rainfed agricultural expansion is most pronounced on acidic soils and steeper, upper elevation sites, suggesting marginalization of agriculture. Agricultural expansion coupled with major losses of grazing land to pine forests are the key processes pointing towards major animal feed deficits. An alternative animal feed source is suggested through GIS using a topographically based microclimatic classification to generate a tree-planting map where the optimum ecological conditions for selective native fodder tree species are identified.
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  • 44
    Digitale Medien
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    Environmental management 18 (1994), S. 345-349 
    ISSN: 1432-1009
    Schlagwort(e): GIS ; Model ; Management
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract Management of natural resources is becoming a complex problem. To ensure sustainability of the resources, the manager must have better tools with which to make decisions. The development of simulation models that make use of GIS data bases is an emerging area of resource management. This paper examines several grid-based models and addresses the use of GIS programs to construct spatial dynamic models. Some considerations for the implementation of modeling using GIS data bases are provided. The capability to simulate ecosystem processes such as fire, erosion, and other factors will allow the resource manager to make more informed decisions by evaluating potential consequences on the computer.
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  • 45
    ISSN: 1432-1009
    Schlagwort(e): Space shuttle launch ; Acid deposition ; GIS ; Environmental monitoring
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract Space shuttle launches produce localized hydrochloric acid deposition. The interaction of solid rocket motor exhaust and deluge water released on the pad at the time of launch results in the formation of an exhaust cloud. The spatial pattern and extent of deposition from the launch cloud are predicted by the rocket exhaust effluent diffusion (REED) model. The actual pattern of deposition has been mapped by field surveys for each shuttle launch since 1981. In this paper we use a geographical information system (GIS) to compare model predictions with ground patterns for 49 shuttle launches. We also compile cumulative maps of deposition patterns needed to consider long-term impacts. The direction of launch cloud movement did not differ significantly from model predictions. The REED model overpredicted both the area that received deposition and the maximum distance from the launch pad that deposition occurred. Severe vegetation damage was restricted to near-field deposition areas within 1980 m north of each launch pad. Total area impacted from launches has been 87.0 ha around pad 39A and 52.9 ha around pad 39B. Far-field deposition has caused leaf spotting from acid droplets or aluminum oxide over a wider and more variable area than near-field. A total of 19,397 ha has received deposition, but 63.6% of this area has received deposition only one time and 92.2% not more than three times. GIS techniques provide means to test spatial models and compile information useful for assessing cumulative impacts.
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  • 46
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    Water, air & soil pollution 76 (1994), S. 199-230 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; biogeophysical feedbacks ; geographically explicit global C cycle model ; CO2 fertilization ; soil respiration ; land cover change
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract A Terrestrial C Cycle model that is incorporated in the Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE 2.0) is described. The model is a geographically explicit implementation of a model that simulates the major C fluxes in different compartments of the terrestrial biosphere and between the biosphere and the atmosphere. Climatic parameters, land cover and atmospheric C concentrations determine the result of the dynamic C simulations. The impact of changing land cover patterns, caused by anthropogenic activities (shifting agriculture, de- and afforestation) and climatic change are modeled implicitly. Feedback processes such as CO2 fertilization and temperature effects on photosynthesis, respiration and decomposition are modeled explicitly. The major innovation of this approach is that the consequences of climate change are taken into account instantly and that their results can be quantified on a global medium-resolution grid. The objectives of this paper are to describe the C cycle model in detail, present the linkages with other parts of the IMAGE 2.0 framework, and give an array of different simulations to validate and test the robustness of this modeling approach. The computed global net primary production (NPP) for the terrestrial biosphere in 1990 was 60.6 Gt C a−1, with a global net ecosystem production (NEP) of 2.4 Gt C a−1. The simulated C flux as result from land cover changes was 1.1 Gt C a−1, so that the terrestrial biosphere in 1990 acted as a C sink of 1.3 Gt C a−1. Global phytomass amounted 567.5 Gt C and the dead biomass pool was 1517.7 Gt C. IMAGE 2.0 simulated for the period 1970–2050 a global average temperature increase of 1.6 °C and a global average precipitation increase of 0.1 mm/day. The CO2 concentration in 2050 was 522.2 ppm. The computed NPP for the year 2050 is 82.5 Gt C a−1, with a NEP of 8.1 Gt C a−1. Projected land cover changes result in a C flux of 0.9 Gt C a−1, so that the terrestrial biosphere will be a strong sink of 7.2 Gt C a−1. The amount of phytomass hardly changed (600.7 Gt C) but the distribution over the different regions had. Dead biomass increased significantly to 1667.2 Gt C.
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  • 47
    Digitale Medien
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    Water, air & soil pollution 76 (1994), S. 1-35 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Schlagwort(e): integrated modeling ; integrated assessment ; greenhouse gas emissions ; global change ; climate change ; land cover change ; C cycle
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract This paper describes the IMAGE 2.0 model, a multi-disciplinary, integrated model designed to simulate the dynamics of the global society-biosphere-climate system. The objectives of the model are to investigate linkages and feedbacks in the system, and to evaluate consequences of climate policies. Dynamic calculations are performed to year 2100, with a spatial scale ranging from grid (0.5°×0.5° latitudelongitude) to world regional level, depending on the sub-model. The model consists of three fully linked sub-systems: Energy-Industry, Terrestrial Environment, and Atmosphere-Ocean. The Energy-Industry models compute the emissions of greenhouse gases in 13 world regions as a function of energy consumption and industrial production. End use energy consumption is computed from various economic/demographic driving forces. The Terrestrial Environment models simulate the changes in global land cover on a gridscale based on climatic and economic factors, and the flux of CO2 and other greenhouse gases from the biosphere to the atmosphere. The Atmosphere-Ocean models compute the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the resulting zonal-average temperature and precipitation patterns. The fully linked model has been tested against data from 1970 to 1990, and after calibration can reproduce the following observed trends: regional energy consumption and energy-related emissions, terrestrial flux of CO2 and emissions of greenhouse gases, concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and transformation of land cover. The model can also simulate long term zonal average surface and vertical temperatures.
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  • 48
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; global change ; integrated assessment ; integrated models ; scenario analysis ; carbon cycle ; biofuels
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract This paper presents scenarios computed with IMAGE 2.0, an integrated model of the global environment and climate change. Results are presented for selected aspects of the society-biosphere-climate system including primary energy consumption, emissions of various greenhouse gases, atmospheric concentrations of gases, temperature, precipitation, land cover and other indicators. Included are a “Conventional Wisdom” scenario, and three variations of this scenario: (i) the Conventional Wisdom scenario is a reference case which is partly based on the input assumptions of the IPCC's IS92a scenario; (ii) the “Biofuel Crops” scenario assumes that most biofuels will be derived from new cropland; (iii) the “No Biofuels” scenario examines the sensitivity of the system to the use of biofuels; and (iv) the “Ocean Realignment” scenario investigates the effect of a large-scale change in ocean circulation on the biosphere and climate. Results of the biofuel scenarios illustrate the importance of examining the impact of biofuels on the full range of greenhouse gases, rather than only CO2. These scenarios also indicate possible side effects of the land requirements for energy crops. The Ocean Realignment scenario shows that an unexpected, low probability event can both enhance the build-up of greenhouse gases, and at the same time cause a temporary cooling of surface air temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere. However, warming of the atmosphere is only delayed, not avoided.
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  • 49
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Schlagwort(e): energy modeling ; greenhouse gas emissions ; climate change
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract In the integrated IMAGE 2.0 model the “Energy-Industry System” is implemented as a set of models to develop global scenarios for energy use and industrial processes and for the related emissions of greenhouse gases on a region specific basis. The Energy-Economy model computes total energy use, with a focus on final energy consumption in end-use sectors, based on economic activity levels and the energy conservation potential (“end-use approach”). The Industrial Production and Consumption model computes the future levels of activities other than energy use, which lead to greenhouse gas emissions, based on relations with activities defined in the Energy-Economy model. These two models are complemented by two emissions models, to compute the associated emissions by using emission factors per compound and per activity defined. For investigating energy conservation and emissions control strategy scenarios various techno-economic coefficients in the model can be modified. In this paper the methodology and implementation of the “Energy-Industry System” models is described as well as results from their testing against data for the period 1970–1990. In addition, the application of the models is presented for a specific scenario calculation. Future extensions of the models are in preparation.
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  • 50
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    Digitale Medien
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    Water, air & soil pollution 76 (1994), S. 163-198 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Schlagwort(e): land cover ; land use ; agricultural demand ; climate change ; global change
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract This paper describes two global models: (1) an Agricultural Demand Model which is used to compute the consumption and demand for commodities that define land use in 13 world regions; and, (2) a Land Cover Model, which simulates changes in land cover on a global terrestrial grid (0.5° latitude by 0.5° longitude) resulting from economic and climatic factors. Both are part of the IMAGE 2.0 model of global climate change. The models have been calibrated and tested with regional data from 1970–1990. The Agricultural Demand Model can approximate the observed trend in commodity consumption and the Land Cover Model simulates the total amount of land converted within 13 world regions during this period. Some degree of the spatial variability of deforestation has also been captured by the simulation. Applying the model to a “Conventional Wisdom” scenario showed that future trends of land conversions could be strikingly different on different continents even though a consistent scenario (IS92a from the IPCC) was used for assumptions about economic growth and population. Sensitivity analysis indicated that future land cover patterns are especially sensitive to assumed technological improvements in crop yield and computed changes in agricultural demand.
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  • 51
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    Human ecology 22 (1994), S. 1-22 
    ISSN: 1572-9915
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; episodes ; radiation balance ; global change ; historical ecology
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Biologie , Energietechnik , Ethnologie
    Notizen: Abstract The articles in this special issue range across such influences on climate as solar emissions, orbital precession, atmosphere, oceans, and precipitation, and generally approach, each in some context, human implications of these phenomena. The common underlying theme of all of the papers is the effect the phenomena have on radiation balance as measured by global average temperature. This introductory paper undertakes a formulation of radiation balance theory that makes it serviceable to students of regional science. The objective is to go beyond inference of cause and effect by correlation to causal accounts of cause and effect through regional climatic and cultural processes. This is accomplished primarily by revisualization of the energy system with regions as dependent spatiotemporal entities, and temporally through a protocol for regional episode definition.
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  • 52
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    Human ecology 22 (1994), S. 23-35 
    ISSN: 1572-9915
    Schlagwort(e): solar variation ; climate change ; global climate
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Biologie , Energietechnik , Ethnologie
    Notizen: Abstract Historical research at different time scales from 10s to 1000s of years suggests that solar variation may have influences on global climate. Climate change has had significant impacts on cultures during these periods. Very high solar output during the Medieval Optimum would be expected to have particularly large impacts on peoples of that time as sunspot numbers are thought to have reached one third again any values observed in the current century. Certain other impacts can be inferred from modern populations. For example, the higher parts of the solar cycle are associated with greater incidence of skin melanoma.
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  • 53
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    Human ecology 22 (1994), S. 115-128 
    ISSN: 1572-9915
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; culture change ; models
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Biologie , Energietechnik , Ethnologie
    Notizen: Abstract In the last few decades, advances in understanding and modeling climate have paralleled the growth of an impressive log of radiocarbon dates and quantitative analyses of climatic indicators including pollen, tree rings, and lake levels. At the same time, archeological research has given us an impressive assemblage of cultural information. We also have the tools for sorting out the diverse sources of variance in our datasets. The time has come to begin to integrate these lines of scientific endeavor to produce a mutually coherent picture of at least one of the mechanisms that have affected the history of humankind, and one that undoubtedly will affect the future as well.
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  • 54
    ISSN: 1572-9915
    Schlagwort(e): land use ; land cover ; Amazon ; estuary ; flooded forest ; aÇai ; palms ; agriculture ; pastures ; swidden ; slash-and-burn agriculture ; succession ; remote sensing ; GIS
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Biologie , Energietechnik , Ethnologie
    Notizen: Abstract Landsat TM scenes for 1985 and 1991 are used to produce a georeferenced map of land cover and land use for an area of the Amazon estuary inhabited by three populations of caboclos with distinct patterns of land use. This information is combined in a geographic information system with ethnographic and survey research carried out over the past 5 years to develop representative spectral “signatures” which permit measurement and differentiation of land uses and the detection of change even between small areas of managed floodplain forest and unmanaged forest, and between three distinct age/growth classes of secondary succession following deforestation. Implementation of these procedures permit the scaling up or down of research at different resolutions. Three distinct patterns of land use are examined with differential impact on the environment. Mechanized agriculture at one site has eliminated virtually all the mature upland forest and is now dominated by secondary successional vegetation. The more traditional system of diversified land use at the next site shows a subtle cycling of flooded forest to managed palm forest through time in response to the price of palm fruit and cycling in the use of fallow land. A third site, based on palm fruit extractivism, shows minimal changes in land cover due to persistent specialization on management of flooded forest extraction. There is little evidence that the community with the greatest impact on forest cover is any better off economically than the two communities which have minimal impact on the landscape. This study suggests how a balance between use and conservation in Amazonia may be achieved in floodplain and estuarine areas, and the effectiveness of monitoring these types of land cover from satellite platforms.
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  • 55
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    Journal for general philosophy of science 24 (1993), S. 43-62 
    ISSN: 1572-8587
    Schlagwort(e): mathematics ; progress ; rationality ; methodology ; historiography ; cognitive and social factors
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Philosophie , Wissenschaftskunde und Wissenschaftsorganisation, Hochschul- und Universitätswesen, Museumswissenschaft
    Notizen: Summary Is mathematical knowledge the product of a method fulfilling temporally and locally invariant criteria and thus manifesting a rationality which sets it entirely apart from all other cultural products? Or is it a socially constructed product, sharing in the accidental and conventional nature of all historically contingent cultural products? In order to be able to take the latter point of view at all seriously into consideration, the most sophisticated and historically informed methodological model is carefully and critically examined. This (Lakatosian) model, however liberal and history-directed it may seem, turns out to incorporate the former, (methodo)logical view of the development of mathematics. It will be demonstrated that the basic assumption underlying Lakatosian methodology is both unwarranted and superfluous for the rational explanation of the growth of mathematical knowledge. This leads to the provisional conclusion that the relevant question is not whether mathematical progress derives ultimately from irreducibly cognitive or from irreducibly social factors, but how cognitive and social factors are interrelated and together, in their indivisible unity, are constitutive of the development of mathematical knowledge. In the forthcoming second part of the article, a model of this socio-cognitive interplay, relying heavily on empirical analyses, will be presented.
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  • 56
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    Environmental management 17 (1993), S. 817-827 
    ISSN: 1432-1009
    Schlagwort(e): Environmental policy evaluation ; Geographic information systems ; GIS ; Riparian environmental buffer ; Decision support
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract In this article a GIS method is presented for riparian environmental buffer generation. It integrates a scientifically tested buffer width delineation model into a GIS framework. Using the generally available data sets, it determines buffer widths in terms of local physical conditions and expected effectiveness. Technical burdens of data management, computation, and result presentation are handled by the GIS. The case study in which the method was used to evaluate the stream buffer regulations in a North Carolina county demonstrates its capability as a decision support tool to facilitate environmental policy formulation and evaluation, and environmental dispute resolution.
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  • 57
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    Biology and philosophy 8 (1993), S. 301-318 
    ISSN: 1572-8404
    Schlagwort(e): Beadle ; coherence ; genetics ; historiography of science ; integration of disciplines ; methodology ; molecular biology ; reduction ; Tatum ; unity of science
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Biologie , Philosophie
    Notizen: Abstract In this paper I respond to Wim van der Steen's arguments against the supposed current overemphasis on norms ofcoherence andinterdisciplinary integration in biology. On the normative level, I argue that these aremiddle-range norms which, although they may be misapplied in short-term attempts to solve (temporarily?) intractable problems, play a guiding role in the longer-term treatment of biological problems. This stance is supported by a case study of apartial success story, the development of the one gene — one enzyme hypothesis. As that case shows, thegoal of coherent interdisciplinary integration not only provides guidance for research, but also provides the standard for recognizingfailed integrations of the sort that van der Steen criticizes.
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  • 58
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    Water resources management 7 (1993), S. 273-287 
    ISSN: 1573-1650
    Schlagwort(e): Sacramento model ; rainfall-runoff ; time series ; precipitation ; air temperature ; evapotranspiration ; runoff changes ; climate change ; soil moisture
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract The Sacramento rainfall-runoff model has been used in experiments with 60 year daily series for the Czech part of the Labe River basin; simulations with decreased and/or increased inputs (precipitations, air temperature, evapotranspiration) provide results that could be used to appraise the runoff changes due to climatic warming. Simulations with the modified parameters are used for evaluation of runoff changes caused by landuse changes. For both purposes, the long-term data sets appear to be desirable; it is then possible to take into account ‘accidental’ influences. The simulations also provide, as an output, the water contents in different zones of soil moisture; the relationships among evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and baseflow clearly appear in these results.
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  • 59
    ISSN: 1572-9729
    Schlagwort(e): decomposition ; litter mass loss ; climate ; climate change ; pine ; actual evapotranspiration
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Biologie , Energietechnik , Land- und Forstwirtschaft, Gartenbau, Fischereiwirtschaft, Hauswirtschaft
    Notizen: Abstract The purpose of this study was to relate regional variation in litter mass-loss rates (first year) in pine forests to climate across a large, continental-scale area. The variation in mass-loss rate was analyzed using 39 experimental sites spanning climatic regions from the subarctic to subtropical and Mediterranean: the latitudinal gradient ranged from 31 °N to 70 °N and may represent the the largest geographical area that has ever been sampled and observed for the purpose of studying biogeochemical processes. Because of unified site design and uniform laboratory procedures, data from all sites were directly comparable and permitted a determination of the relative influence of climateversus substrate quality viewed from the perspective of broad regional scales. Simple correlation applied to the entire data set indicated that annual actual evapotranspiration (AET) should be the leading climatic constraint on mass-loss rates (Radj 2 = 0.496). The combination of AET, average July temp. and average annual temp. could explain about 70% of the sites' variability on litter mass-loss. In an analysis of 23 Scots pine sites north of the Alps and Carpatians AET alone could account for about 65% of the variation and the addition of a substrate-quality variable was sufficiently significant to be used in a model. The influence of litter quality was introduced into a model, using data from 11 sites at which litter of different quality had been incubated. These sites are found in Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden and Finland. At any one site most ( ≫ 90%) of the variation in mass-loss rates could be explained by one of the litter-quality variables giving concentration of nitrogen, phosphorus or water solubles. However, even when these models included nitrogen or phosphorus even small changes in potential evapotranspiration resulted in large changes in early-phase decay rates. Further regional subdivision of the data set, resulted in a range of strength in the relationship between loss rate and climatic variables, from very weak in Central Europe to strong for the Scandinavian and Atlantic coast sites (Radj 2 = 0.912; AETversus litter mass loss). Much of the variation in observed loss rates could be related to continentalversus marine/Atlantic influences. Inland locations had mass-loss rates lower than should be expected on the basis of for example AET alone. Attempts to include seasonality variables were not successful. It is clear that either unknown errors and biases, or, unknown variables are causing these regional differences in response to climatic variables. Nevertheless these results show the powerful influence of climate as a control of the broad-scale geography of mass-loss rates and substrate quality at the stand level. Some of these relationships between mass-loss rate and climatic variables are among the highest ever reported, probably because of the care taken to select uniform sites and experimental methods. This suggest that superior, base line maps of predicted mass-loss rates could be produced using climatic data. These models should be useful to predict the changing equilibrium litter dynamics resulting from climatic change.
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  • 60
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    Journal of fusion energy 12 (1993), S. 107-113 
    ISSN: 1572-9591
    Schlagwort(e): fusion safety analysis ; methodology ; function-based ; GEMSAFE ; ITER
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract A safety analysis for the design of International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) in the Conceptual Design Activity stage was performed by the GEMSAFE methodology, and its results were compared with those of Fusion Experimental Reactor (FER), a Japan's facility planned next to JT-60. The objectives of this study are to confirm the applicability of GEMSAFE to ITER and to select design basis events of ITER and identify R&D items with comparison to FER. Function-Based Safety Analyses (FBSA) were carred out to select 19 and 25 design basis events for FER and ITER, respectively. The major reason for the difference is that ITER has a class-2 RI source, e.g., tritium of 7.5 × 105 Ci in mobile form, in the coolant for the first wall and blankets as well as a class-3 RI source, e.g., the immobile tritium of 2.2×107 Ci absorbed in first wall and dust.
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  • 61
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    Ecotoxicology 2 (1993), S. 123-138 
    ISSN: 1573-3017
    Schlagwort(e): periphyton ; herbicides ; net primary productivity ; lotic ; methodology
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Freshwater algae are quite sensitive to herbicides that enter running water ecosystems through direct application, aerial drift, and/or watershed run-off. However, due to a lack of suitable methodologies, few studies examine the effects of such contamination on naturally occurring attached algal communities under field conditions (i. e., exposure regimes using pulsed doses or brief episodes of peak concentrations to simulate surface run-off during storm events). This paper describes a method for determining the acute short-term effects of four herbicides (hexazinone, atrazine, tebuthiuron and metolachlor) on the net primary productivity (NPP) of periphytic algae in the field using a portable bankside incubator; NPP was measured by monitoring changes in oxygen production (mg O2 per m2) upper surface of rock substrate per h and mg O2 h per mg chlorophyll using the light-dark technique. All herbicides with photosynthetic inhibition as a mode of action significantly reduced NPP. The lowest observed effect concentrations (LOECs) for the herbicides were 43 μg hexazinone l−1, 109 μg atrazine l−1 and 137 μg tebuthiuron l−1. The no observed effect concentrations (NOECs) for these chemicals were 〈43 μg hexazinone l−1, 93 μg atrazine l−1 and 52 μg tebuthiuron l−1. Metolachlor did not significantly reduce NPP at the concentrations that were tested (range 19.6–274 μg l−1). However, community respiration (which included respiration by invertebrates) was significantly reduced at the highest metolachlor concentration (274 μg l−1). Community respiration was not significantly affected by any concentration of the other three herbicides used.
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  • 62
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 6 (1992), S. 69-80 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Schlagwort(e): Hydrology ; global circulation models ; statistics ; climate change
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract Many researchers use outputs from large-scale global circulation models of the atmosphere to assess hydrological and other impacts associated with climate change. However, these models cannot capture all climate variations since the physical processes are imperfectly understood and are poorly represented at smaller regional scales. This paper statistically compares model outputs from the global circulation model of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory to historical data for the United States' Laurentian Great Lakes and for the Emba and Ural River basins in the Commonwealth of Independent States (C.I.S.). We use maximum entropy spectral analysis to compare model and data time series, allowing us to both assess statistical predictabilities and to describe the time series in both time and frequency domains. This comparison initiates assessments of the model's representation of the real world and suggests areas of model improvement.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 63
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
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    Transportation 19 (1992), S. 79-95 
    ISSN: 1572-9435
    Schlagwort(e): comparison ; interview ; methodology ; questionnaire ; survey
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung
    Notizen: Abstract Area wide travel surveys formed the backbone of transportation analysis and methodology in the initial development of transportation plans during the 1960s and early 70s, particularly in the United States. These general purpose surveys were extremely valuable as key elements of travel descriptions, new systems analysis, and plan development. Unfortunately, they were also very expensive, were often large and unwieldy, took many years to process, and produced less than manageable data sets which were often under-utilized; in short, decidedly agency-unfriendly. Squeezed by goals of shorter time frame, budget constraints, survey timing, limited analysis and single purpose usage, transportation agencies evolved during the 1970s and 80s a generally “kinder, gentler” survey methodology, focusing primarily on meeting immediate agency objectives with minimum hassle. In the 1970s, modal and group surveys were most common, and in the 1980s project surveys were the norm. The“agency-friendly travel survey” of the 1990s is described in this paper in terms of its general characteristics, its target population, cost, effectiveness, and timeliness. The paper suggests a survey structure which probably will rely heavily upon aggregate statistics collected by periodic censuses, match exactly the categorical classifications of aggregate data bases, targets choice behavior, and focuses on sites rather than cities. Various high-tech GIS-based procedures, unobtrusive measurements, and other“on-board” data collection systems are also likely. The paper concludes that while transportation agencies are not in danger of losing the survey as a data gathering device, analysts must work within agency structures to conduct good surveys, private and public, since it is generally their requirements that will control such items.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 64
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
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    Journal for general philosophy of science 23 (1992), S. 105-128 
    ISSN: 1572-8587
    Schlagwort(e): abstraction ; alternative ; conception order ; hermeneutics ; methodology ; thing-in-itself ; transcendental idealism/realism ; truthfulness
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Philosophie , Wissenschaftskunde und Wissenschaftsorganisation, Hochschul- und Universitätswesen, Museumswissenschaft
    Notizen: Summary The researches on Kant are one example of the high degree of differences in opinions about mentalities. The lack of methods is one reason. Kant researchers have regretted this too. But as available methods are not developed, these regrets are not very convincing. For instance, the old method to sort concepts in different degrees of abstraction is not developed as a method of interpretation. This method will be exemplified for the question whether Kant was idealist or realist. It could have been an old well-known method as a method of interpretation, but this has not yet been done. Other reasons for this lack of methods are to be inquired. Some philosophical positions presuppose the lack of methods and this could be a fundamental reason for the lack of methods of interpretation.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 65
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
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    Journal for general philosophy of science 23 (1992), S. 241-263 
    ISSN: 1572-8587
    Schlagwort(e): sociology of science ; sociology of translation ; knowledge representations ; strong programme ; scientometrics ; methodology
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Philosophie , Wissenschaftskunde und Wissenschaftsorganisation, Hochschul- und Universitätswesen, Museumswissenschaft
    Notizen: Summary Several, seemingly unrelated problems of empirical research in the ‘sociology of scientific knowledge’ can be analyzed as following from initial assumptions with respect to the status of the knowledge content of science. These problems involve: (1) the relation between the level of the scientific field and the group level; (2) the boundaries and the status of ‘contexts’, and (3) the emergence of so-called ‘asymmetry’ in discourse analysis. It is suggested that these problems can be clarified by allowing for cognitive factors as independent (‘heterogeneous’) variables, in addition to and in interaction with (i.e., not only as attributes of) social factors. In the ‘sociology of translation’, ‘heterogeneity’ among scientists, cognitions and textual elements has been made a basic assumption. This heterogeneity is bound together in an ‘actor network’. However, since the ‘actor network’ is an empirical category, the methodological problems remain unresolved. This has consequences for the relation between empirical data and theoretical inferences.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 66
    ISSN: 1572-9729
    Schlagwort(e): fire ; climate change ; boreal forest ; stream ; sulfate ; acidity ; watershed
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Biologie , Energietechnik , Land- und Forstwirtschaft, Gartenbau, Fischereiwirtschaft, Hauswirtschaft
    Notizen: Abstract In a boreal forest catchment in the Experimental Lakes Area in northwestern Ontario, wildfire caused an increase in the concentrations of strong acid anions and base cations of the stream. In the naturally base-poor Northwest (NW) Subbasin, a 1980 wildfire caused exports of strong acid anions to increase more than export of base cations, causing a 2.5 fold increase in the acidity of the stream. Mean annual stream pH declined from 5.15 prior to fire to 4.76 two years after fire. Acid-neutralizing capacity (ANC), calculated as the difference between total base cations and strong acid anions, decreased to 20% of pre-fire values. Sulfate and chloride were the strong acid anions responsible for the decline in ANC, increasing four-fold. While nitrate increased eleven-fold, concentrations were too low to significantly affect ANC. There was a significant correlation between weekly sulfate concentration and base cation concentration (r 2 = 0.83) in the two years after fire. Recovery of ANC was caused by the more rapid decline in concentration of sulfate than by changes in base cations. Drought produced a similar but weaker response than fire, with increased sulfate concentrations and decreased stream pH. Climatic warming that increases drought and fire frequency would have effects that mimic the impacts of acidic precipitation (i.e. higher sulfate concentrations and acidic stream waters). Areas which have higher concentrations of stored S from past acid precipitation or have large areas of peatlands in the watershed may have aggravated losses of S and H+ after drought and fire.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 67
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
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    Journal of agricultural and environmental ethics 5 (1992), S. 113-146 
    ISSN: 1573-322X
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; food ; agriculture ; ethics ; technologies
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Land- und Forstwirtschaft, Gartenbau, Fischereiwirtschaft, Hauswirtschaft , Philosophie
    Notizen: Abstract Burning fossil fuel in the North American continent contributes more to the CO2 global warming problem than in any other continent. The resulting climate changes are expected to alter food production. The overall changes in temperature, moisture, carbon dioxide, insect pests, plant pathogens, and weeds associated with global warming are projected to reduce food production in North America. However, in Africa, the projected slight rise in rainfall is encouraging, especially since Africa already suffers from severe shortages of rainfall. For all regions, a reduction in fossil fuel burning is vital. Adoption of sound ecological resource management, especially soil and water conservation and the prevention of deforestation, is important. Together, these steps will benefit agriculture, the environment, farmers, and society as a whole.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 68
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    Digitale Medien
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    Biology and philosophy 7 (1992), S. 69-76 
    ISSN: 1572-8404
    Schlagwort(e): Empiricism ; gene ; methodology ; T.H. Morgan ; preformation
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Biologie , Philosophie
    Notizen: Abstract In a reply to Marga Vicedo the philosophical inconsistency of Morgan is emphasized. It is argued that even if a strict classification of scientists according to their philosophical position is not possible, their science may still be influenced by their philosophical ideas. Finally it is suggested that philosophical ideas influence science less by a direct effect on the scientists than indirectly through science policy and administration.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 69
    ISSN: 1432-1009
    Schlagwort(e): Phosphorus ; Eutrophication ; Lake management ; Water quality ; Regionalization ; Ecoregions ; GIS
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract A map of summer total phosphorus in lakes was compiled recently for a three-state area of the upper Midwest for purposes of identifying regional patterns of total phosphorus in lakes and attainable lake trophic state. Spatial patterns in total phosphorus from approximately 3000 lakes were studied in conjunction with maps of geographic characteristics that tend to affect phosphorus balance in lakes to identify regions of similarity in phosphorus concentrations in lakes or similarity in the mosaic of values as compared to adjacent areas. While degrees of relative homogeneity are apparent at many scales, the map was designed at a scale that would yield regions with sufficient homogeneity to be useful for lake management throughout the area. In this study, data from 210 lakes in a 1560-mi2 area in northwestern Wisconsin, sampled by the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources in the spring of 1988 (subsequent to the compilation of the phosphorus map), were examined to: (1) substantiate the existence of the regions depicted on the map in northwest Wisconsin, (2) determine the nature and relative precision of the regional boundaries, (3) determine the relative importance of natural and anthropogenic watershed characteristics, lake types, lake area, and lake depth in explaining within-region differences in lake phosphorus, and (4) demonstrate how the regions might be used by local lake managers.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 70
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
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    Environmental management 15 (1991), S. 815-822 
    ISSN: 1432-1009
    Schlagwort(e): Resource evaluation ; Food ; Feed ; Fuelwood ; Nepal ; Overview ; GIS ; Spreadsheet model ; Scenarios ; Resource sensitivity
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract A GIS-based land evaluation model was developed to determine the food, feed, and fuelwood sufficiency of all districts in Nepal. Resource surpluses or deficits were calculated for each district for 1981, the year for which the national land resource data were available. Of the three resources, feed supplies were found to be the most critical. Feed deficits occurred in 57% of all districts in 1981, while food and fuelwood deficits occurred in less than 10% of all districts. Different scenarios were carried out for the year 2000 to estimate the magnitude of future resource deficits, assuming resource use and yields in Nepal remain constant in the face of growing population and livestock numbers. Linking resource data with spreadsheet and GIS systems provides a new way to understand and evaluate resources at the district and national levels. To more fully capture the usefulness of this approach, information on rates of change in productivity and land use is needed.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 71
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    Journal for general philosophy of science 21 (1990), S. 293-308 
    ISSN: 1572-8587
    Schlagwort(e): psychology ; Külpe ; methodology ; Popper ; rationality
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Philosophie , Wissenschaftskunde und Wissenschaftsorganisation, Hochschul- und Universitätswesen, Museumswissenschaft
    Notizen: Summary The importance of the problem of how to integrate psychology and methodology was rediscovered by Oswald Külpe. He noted that Wundt's psychology was inadequate and that a new methodology was needed to construct an alternative. Külpe made real progress but his program turned out to be quite difficult: he had no appropriate method for integrating the two fields. August Messer tried to fill the gap but failed. The problem was largely dropped due to poor methods at hand for studying it but remained important due to Popper's methodology and de Groot's psychology at least. We may now more effectively return to it by using a bootstrap method.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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