ALBERT

Description: A short course on off-beam cloud lidar is given. Specific topics addressed include: motivation and goal of off-beam cloud lidar; diffusion physics; numeric amalysis; and validity of the diffusion approximation. A demo of the process is included.

Description: In this presentation we review the fractal nature of internal cloud structure from cm- to km-scales as captured by in-situ probes during long horizontal penetrations by aircraft. We uncover the non-Poissonian spatial distribution of cloud droplets at submeter scales and confirm scale-invariant behavior for large scales. Based on these structural characteristics, we generate simple fractal cloud models that reproduce statistical scaling properties of real clouds. These stochastic models represent a link between nonlinear science, in general, and cloud-radiation interaction, in particular. Next we run three-dimensional radiative transfer computations on these synthetic fractal clouds and compare the structure of the resulting radiation fields with the known structure of the cloud model and with satellite images of real clouds. The different behaviors observed for small and large-scale variabilities will be discussed in detail. We find that while the large-scale fluctuations of the resulting radiation fields resemble those in the original scale-invariant cloud structure, the radiation at small scales is much smoother than its cloud liquid water counterpart. This violates scale-invariance and produces a scale-break at 0.2-0.5 km that is clearly observed in high-resolution satellite data such as from Landsat. Finally, we show how radiative transfer Green function theory in the photon diffusion limit explains (and predicts) the above phenomena of "radiative smoothing."

Description: To meet its objective of reducing operations costs without incurring a corresponding increase in risk, NASA is seeking new methods to automate mission operations. This paper examines the state of the art in automating ground operations for space missions. A summary of available technologies and methods for automating mission operations is provided. Responses from interviews with several space mission FOTs (Flight Operations Teams) to assess the degree and success of those technologies and methods implemented are presented. Mission operators that were interviewed approached automation using different tools and methods resulting in varying degrees of success - from nearly completely automated to nearly completely manual. Two key criteria for successful automation are the active participation of the FOT in the planning, designing, testing, and implementation of the system and the relative degree of complexity of the mission.

Description: Climate models predict that tropical lower-stratospheric humidity will increase as the climate warms. We examine this trend in two state-of-the-art chemistry-climate models. Under high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, the stratospheric entry value of water vapor increases by approx. 1 part per million by volume (ppmv) over this century in both models. We show with trajectory runs driven by model meteorological fields that the warming tropical tropopause layer (TTL) explains 50-80% of this increase. The remainder is a consequence of trends in evaporation of ice convectively lofted into the TTL and lower stratosphere. Our results further show that, within the models we examined, ice lofting is primarily important on long time scales - on interannual time scales, TTL temperature variations explain most of the variations in lower stratospheric humidity. Assessing the ability of models to realistically represent ice-lofting processes should be a high priority in the modeling community.

Description: We investigate the impact of cirrus cloud heterogeneity on the direct emission by cloud or surface and on the scattering by ice particles in the thermal infrared (TIR). Realistic 3-D cirri are modeled with the 3DCLOUD code, and top-of-atmosphere radiances are simulated by the 3-D Monte Carlo radiative transfer (RT) algorithm 3DMCPOL for two (8.65 micrometers and 12.05 micrometers) channels of the Imaging Infrared Radiometer on CALIPSO. At nadir, comparisons of 1-D and 3-D RT show that 3-D radiances are larger than their 1-D counterparts for direct emission but smaller for scattered radiation. For our cirrus cases, 99% of the 3-D total radiance is computed by the third scattering order, which corresponds to 90% of the total computational effort, but larger optical thicknesses need more scattering orders. To radically accelerate the 3-D RT computations (using only few percent of 3-D RT time with a Monte Carlo code), even in the presence of large optical depths, we develop a hybrid model based on exact 3-D direct emission, the first scattering order from 1-D in each homogenized column, and an empirical adjustment linearly dependent on the optical thickness to account for higher scattering orders. Good agreement is found between the hybrid model and the exact 3-D radiances for two very different cirrus models without changing the empirical parameters. We anticipate that a future deterministic implementation of the hybrid model will be fast enough to process multiangle thermal imagery in a practical tomographic reconstruction of 3-D cirrus fields.

Description: 3D cloud radiative community has matured enough to prepare a volume on 3D radiative transfer in cloudy atmosphere that will be published by Springer-Verlag this year. Many leading 3D radiative transfer scientists are amongst the co-authors of the book. The book starts with the basic 3D radiative transfer problem, describes its solutions and models, discusses the effects of cloud inhomogeneity for remote sensing, addresses climate problems in realistic atmosphere and studies cloud-vegetation interactions.

Description: GRACE data indicate large seasonal variations in gravity that are assumed to be related to climate-driven fluxes of space water. Seasonal redistribution of surface mass should deform the Earth, and our calculations using GRACE data suggest vertical deformations of approx. 13 mm in the region of greatest flux, the Amazon River Basin. To test the GRACE gravity-hydrology connection, we analyzed GPS data acquired from sites in this region. After accounting for degree 1 variations not observable with GRACE, we find that annual deformation measured with GPS correlates highly with predictions calculated from GRACE measurements. These results confirm the variations in surface water sensed by GRACE, which are significantly larger than those predicted by some hydrology models. The results also demonstrate that GRACE can be an important tool for monitoring deformation of the Earth, and suggest that combined analysis of GRACE and GPS may be a useful approach for estimation of geocenter variations.

Description: From 1875 to 1878, concurrent multiyear droughts in Asia, Brazil, and Africa, referred to as the Great Drought, caused widespread crop failures, catalyzing the so-called Global Famine, which had fatalities exceeding 50 million people and long-lasting societal consequences. Observations, paleoclimate reconstructions, and climate model simulations are used 1) to demonstrate the severity and characterize the evolution of drought across different regions, and 2) to investigate the underlying mechanisms driving its multiyear persistence. Severe or record-setting droughts occurred on continents in both hemispheres and in multiple seasons, with the "Monsoon Asia" region being the hardest hit, experiencing the single most intense and the second most expansive drought in the last 800 years. The extreme severity, duration, and extent of this global event is associated with an extraordinary combination of preceding cool tropical Pacific conditions (1870-76), a record-breaking El Nino (1877-78), a record strong Indian Ocean dipole (1877), and record warm North Atlantic Ocean (1878) conditions. Composites of historical analogs and two sets of ensemble simulations - one forced with global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and another forced with tropical Pacific SST - were used to distinguish the role of the extreme conditions in different ocean basins. While the drought in most regions was largely driven by the tropical Pacific SST conditions, an extreme positive phase of the Indian Ocean dipole and warm North Atlantic SSTs, both likely aided by the strong El Nino in 1877-78, intensified and prolonged droughts in Australia and Brazil, respectively, and extended the impact to northern and southeastern Africa. Climatic conditions that caused the Great Drought and Global Famine arose from natural variability, and their recurrence, with hydrological impacts intensified by global warming, could again potentially undermine global food security.

Description: A series of simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model are analyzed in order to aid in the interpretation of observed interannual and sub-decadal variability in the tropical lower stratosphere over the past 35 years. The impact of El Nino-Southern Oscillation on temperature and water vapor in this region is nonlinear in boreal spring. While moderate El Nino events lead to cooling in this region, strong El Nino events lead to warming, even as the response of the large-scale Brewer Dobson circulation appears to scale nearly linearly with El Nino. This nonlinearity is shown to arise from the response in the Indo-West Pacific to El Nino: strong El Nino events lead to tropospheric warming extending into the tropical tropopause layer and up to the cold point in this region, where it allows for more water vapor to enter the stratosphere. The net effect is that both strong La Nina and strong El Nino events lead to enhanced entry water vapor and stratospheric moistening in boreal spring and early summer. These results lead to the following interpretation of the contribution of sea surface temperatures to the decline in water vapor in the early 2000s: the very strong El Nino event in 1997/1998, followed by more than 2 consecutive years of La Nina, led to enhanced lower-stratospheric water vapor. As this period ended in early 2001, entry water vapor concentrations declined. This effect accounts for approximately one-quarter of the observed drop.

Description: Through verifying against hundreds of hours of airborne in-situ measurements from the NASA-sponsored Atmospheric Carbon and Transport America (ACT-A) field campaign, this study systematically examines the regional uncertainties and biases of the carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations from two of the state-of-the-art global analysis products, namely the real-time analysis from the European Center (EC) for Medium Range Forecasting and NOAAs near real-time Carbon Tracker (CT) reanalysis. It is found that both the EC and CT-NRT analyses agree reasonably well with the independent ACT-A flight-level CO2 measurements in the free troposphere but the uncertainties are considerably larger in the boundary layer during both the summer months of 2016 and the winter months of 2017. There are also strong variabilities in accuracy and bias between seasons, and across three different subregions in the United States (Mid-Atlantic, Midwest and South). Overall, the analysis uncertainties of the EC and CT-NRT analyses in terms of root-mean square deviations against airborne data are comparable to each other, both of which are between 1-2 ppm in the free troposphere but can be as large as 10 ppm near the surface, which are grossly consistent with the difference between the two analyses. The current study not only provides systematic uncertainty estimates for both analysis products over North America but also demonstrated that these two independent estimates can be used to approximate the overall regional CO2 analysis uncertainties. Both statistics are important in future studies in quantifying the uncertainties of regional carbon concentration and flux estimates, as well as in assessing the impact of regional transport through more refined regional modeling and analysis systems.