ALBERT

Description: © The Author(s), 2022. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Hand, K., Phillips, C., Murray, A., Garvin, J., Maize, E., Gibbs, R., Reeves, G., San Martin, A., Tan-Wang, G., Krajewski, J., Hurst, K., Crum, R., Kennedy, B., McElrath, T., Gallon, J., Sabahi, D., Thurman, S., Goldstein, B., Estabrook, P., Lee, S. W., Dooley, J. A., Brinckerhoff, W. B., Edgett, K. S., German, C. R., Hoehler, T. M., Hörst, S. M., Lunine, J. I., Paranicas, C., Nealson, K., Smith, D. E., Templeton, A. S., Russell, M. J., Schmidt, B., Christner, B., Ehlmann, B., Hayes, A., Rhoden, A., Willis, P., Yingst, R. A., Craft, K., Cameron, M. E., Nordheim, T., Pitesky, J., Scully, J., Hofgartner, J., Sell, S. W., Barltrop, K. J., Izraelevitz, J., Brandon, E. J., Seong, J., Jones, J.-P., Pasalic, J., Billings, K. J., Ruiz, J. P., Bugga, R. V., Graham, D., Arenas, L. A., Takeyama, D., Drummond, M., Aghazarian, H., Andersen, A. J., Andersen, K. B., Anderson, E. W., Babuscia, A., Backes, P. G., Bailey, E. S., Balentine, D., Ballard, C. G., Berisford, D. F., Bhandari, P., Blackwood, K., Bolotin, G. S., Bovre, E. A., Bowkett, J., Boykins, K. T., Bramble, M. S., Brice, T. M., Briggs, P., Brinkman, A. P., Brooks, S. M., Buffington, B. B., Burns, B., Cable, M. L., Campagnola, S., Cangahuala, L. A., Carr, G. A., Casani, J. R., Chahat, N. E., Chamberlain-Simon, B. K., Cheng, Y., Chien, S. A., Cook, B. T., Cooper, M., DiNicola, M., Clement, B., Dean, Z., Cullimore, E. A., Curtis, A. G., Croix, J-P. de la, Pasquale, P. Di, Dodd, E. M., Dubord, L. A., Edlund, J. A., Ellyin, R., Emanuel, B., Foster, J. T., Ganino, A. J., Garner, G. J., Gibson, M. T., Gildner, M., Glazebrook, K. J., Greco, M. E., Green, W. M., Hatch, S. J., Hetzel, M. M., Hoey, W. A., Hofmann, A. E., Ionasescu, R., Jain, A., Jasper, J. D., Johannesen, J. R., Johnson, G. K., Jun, I., Katake, A. B., Kim-Castet, S. Y., Kim, D. I., Kim, W., Klonicki, E. F., Kobeissi, B., Kobie, B. D., Kochocki, J., Kokorowski, M., Kosberg, J. A., Kriechbaum, K., Kulkarni, T. P., Lam, R. L., Landau, D. F., Lattimore, M. A., Laubach, S. L., Lawler, C. R., Lim, G., Lin, J. Y., Litwin, T. E., Lo, M. W., Logan, C. A., Maghasoudi, E., Mandrake, L., Marchetti, Y., Marteau, E., Maxwell, K. A., Namee, J. B. Mc, Mcintyre, O., Meacham, M., Melko, J. P., Mueller, J., Muliere, D. A., Mysore, A., Nash, J., Ono, H., Parker, J. M., Perkins, R. C., Petropoulos, A. E., Gaut, A., Gomez, M. Y. Piette, Casillas, R. P., Preudhomme, M., Pyrzak, G., Rapinchuk, J., Ratliff, J. M., Ray, T. L., Roberts, E. T., Roffo, K., Roth, D. C., Russino, J. A., Schmidt, T. M., Schoppers, M. J., Senent, J. S., Serricchio, F., Sheldon, D. J., Shiraishi, L. R., Shirvanian, J., Siegel, K. J., Singh, G., Sirota, A. R., Skulsky, E. D., Stehly, J. S., Strange, N. J., Stevens, S. U., Sunada, E. T., Tepsuporn, S. P., Tosi, L. P. C., Trawny, N., Uchenik, I., Verma, V., Volpe, R. A., Wagner, C. T., Wang, D., Willson, R. G., Wolff, J. L., Wong, A. T., Zimmer, A. K., Sukhatme, K. G., Bago, K. A., Chen, Y., Deardorff, A. M., Kuch, R. S., Lim, C., Syvertson, M. L., Arakaki, G. A., Avila, A., DeBruin, K. J., Frick, A., Harris, J. R., Heverly, M. C., Kawata, J. M., Kim, S.-K., Kipp, D. M., Murphy, J., Smith, M. W., Spaulding, M. D., Thakker, R., Warner, N. Z., Yahnker, C. R., Young, M. E., Magner, T., Adams, D., Bedini, P., Mehr, L., Sheldon, C., Vernon, S., Bailey, V., Briere, M., Butler, M., Davis, A., Ensor, S., Gannon, M., Haapala-Chalk, A., Hartka, T., Holdridge, M., Hong, A., Hunt, J., Iskow, J., Kahler, F., Murray, K., Napolillo, D., Norkus, M., Pfisterer, R., Porter, J., Roth, D., Schwartz, P., Wolfarth, L., Cardiff, E. H., Davis, A., Grob, E. W., Adam, J. R., Betts, E., Norwood, J., Heller, M. M., Voskuilen, T., Sakievich, P., Gray, L., Hansen, D. J., Irick, K. W., Hewson, J. C., Lamb, J., Stacy, S. C., Brotherton, C. M., Tappan, A. S., Benally, D., Thigpen, H., Ortiz, E., Sandoval, D., Ison, A. M., Warren, M., Stromberg, P. G., Thelen, P. M., Blasy, B., Nandy, P., Haddad, A. W., Trujillo, L. B., Wiseley, T. H., Bell, S. A., Teske, N. P., Post, C., Torres-Castro, L., Grosso, C. Wasiolek, M. Science goals and mission architecture of the Europa Lander mission concept. The Planetary Science Journal, 3(1), (2022): 22, https://doi.org/10.3847/psj/ac4493.

Description: Europa is a premier target for advancing both planetary science and astrobiology, as well as for opening a new window into the burgeoning field of comparative oceanography. The potentially habitable subsurface ocean of Europa may harbor life, and the globally young and comparatively thin ice shell of Europa may contain biosignatures that are readily accessible to a surface lander. Europa's icy shell also offers the opportunity to study tectonics and geologic cycles across a range of mechanisms and compositions. Here we detail the goals and mission architecture of the Europa Lander mission concept, as developed from 2015 through 2020. The science was developed by the 2016 Europa Lander Science Definition Team (SDT), and the mission architecture was developed by the preproject engineering team, in close collaboration with the SDT. In 2017 and 2018, the mission concept passed its mission concept review and delta-mission concept review, respectively. Since that time, the preproject has been advancing the technologies, and developing the hardware and software, needed to retire risks associated with technology, science, cost, and schedule.

Description: K.P.H., C.B.P., E.M., and all authors affiliated with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory carried out this research at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (grant No. 80NM0018D0004). J.I.L. was the David Baltimore Distinguished Visiting Scientist during the preparation of the SDT report. JPL/Caltech2021.

Description: The Working Group II contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report assesses the impacts of climate change, looking at ecosystems, biodiversity, and human communities at global and regional levels. It also reviews vulnerabilities and the capacities and limits of the natural world and human societies to adapt to climate change.

Description: © The Author(s), 2022. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Womersley, F. C., Humphries, N. E., Queiroz, N., Vedor, M., da Costa, I., Furtado, M., Tyminski, J. P., Abrantes, K., Araujo, G., Bach, S. S., Barnett, A., Berumen, M. L., Bessudo Lion, S., Braun, C. D., Clingham, E., Cochran, J. E. M., de la Parra, R., Diamant, S., Dove, A. D. M., Dudgeon, C. L., Erdmann, M. V., Espinoza, E., Fitzpatrick, R., González Cano, J., Green, J. R., Guzman, H. M., Hardenstine, R., Hasan, A., Hazin, F. H. V., Hearn, A. R., Hueter, R. E., Jaidah, M. Y., Labaja, J., Ladinol, F., Macena, B. C. L., Morris Jr., J. J., Norman, B. M., Peñaherrera-Palmav, C., Pierce, S. J., Quintero, L. M., Ramırez-Macías, D., Reynolds, S. D., Richardson, A. J., Robinson, D. P., Rohner, C. A., Rowat, D. R. L., Sheaves, M., Shivji, M. S., Sianipar, A. B., Skomal, G. B., Soler, G., Syakurachman, I., Thorrold, S. R., Webb, D. H., Wetherbee, B. M., White, T. D., Clavelle, T., Kroodsma, D. A., Thums, M., Ferreira, L. C., Meekan, M. G., Arrowsmith, L. M., Lester, E. K., Meyers, M. M., Peel, L. R., Sequeira, A. M. M., Eguıluz, V. M., Duarte, C. M., & Sims, D. W. Global collision-risk hotspots of marine traffic and the world’s largest fish, the whale shark. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 119(20), (2022): e2117440119, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2117440119.

Description: Marine traffic is increasing globally yet collisions with endangered megafauna such as whales, sea turtles, and planktivorous sharks go largely undetected or unreported. Collisions leading to mortality can have population-level consequences for endangered species. Hence, identifying simultaneous space use of megafauna and shipping throughout ranges may reveal as-yet-unknown spatial targets requiring conservation. However, global studies tracking megafauna and shipping occurrences are lacking. Here we combine satellite-tracked movements of the whale shark, Rhincodon typus, and vessel activity to show that 92% of sharks’ horizontal space use and nearly 50% of vertical space use overlap with persistent large vessel (〉300 gross tons) traffic. Collision-risk estimates correlated with reported whale shark mortality from ship strikes, indicating higher mortality in areas with greatest overlap. Hotspots of potential collision risk were evident in all major oceans, predominantly from overlap with cargo and tanker vessels, and were concentrated in gulf regions, where dense traffic co-occurred with seasonal shark movements. Nearly a third of whale shark hotspots overlapped with the highest collision-risk areas, with the last known locations of tracked sharks coinciding with busier shipping routes more often than expected. Depth-recording tags provided evidence for sinking, likely dead, whale sharks, suggesting substantial “cryptic” lethal ship strikes are possible, which could explain why whale shark population declines continue despite international protection and low fishing-induced mortality. Mitigation measures to reduce ship-strike risk should be considered to conserve this species and other ocean giants that are likely experiencing similar impacts from growing global vessel traffic.

Description: Funding for data analysis was provided by the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) through a University of Southampton INSPIRE DTP PhD Studentship to F.C.W. Additional funding for data analysis was provided by NERC Discovery Science (NE/R00997/X/1) and the European Research Council (ERC-AdG-2019 883583 OCEAN DEOXYFISH) to D.W.S., Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) under PTDC/BIA/28855/2017 and COMPETE POCI-01–0145-FEDER-028855, and MARINFO–NORTE-01–0145-FEDER-000031 (funded by Norte Portugal Regional Operational Program [NORTE2020] under the PORTUGAL 2020 Partnership Agreement, through the European Regional Development Fund–ERDF) to N.Q. FCT also supported N.Q. (CEECIND/02857/2018) and M.V. (PTDC/BIA-COM/28855/2017). D.W.S. was supported by a Marine Biological Association Senior Research Fellowship. All tagging procedures were approved by institutional ethical review bodies and complied with all relevant ethical regulations in the jurisdictions in which they were performed. Details for individual research teams are given in SI Appendix, section 8. Full acknowledgments for tagging and field research are given in SI Appendix, section 7. This research is part of the Global Shark Movement Project (https://www.globalsharkmovement.org).

Description: Early to Middle Miocene sea-level oscillations of approximately 40–60 m estimated from far-field records1–3 are interpreted to reflect the loss of virtually all East Antarctic ice during peak warmth2. This contrasts with ice-sheet model experiments suggesting most terrestrial ice in East Antarctica was retained even during the warmest intervals of the Middle Miocene4,5. Data and model outputs can be reconciled if a large West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) existed and expanded across most of the outer continental shelf during the Early Miocene, accounting for maximum ice-sheet volumes. Here we provide the earliest geological evidence proving large WAIS expansions occurred during the Early Miocene (~17.72–17.40 Ma). Geochemical and petrographic data show glacimarine sediments recovered at International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Site U1521 in the central Ross Sea derive from West Antarctica, requiring the presence of a WAIS covering most of the Ross Sea continental shelf. Seismic, lithological and palynological data reveal the intermittent proximity of grounded ice to Site U1521. The erosion rate calculated from this sediment package greatly exceeds the long-term mean, implying rapid erosion of West Antarctica. This interval therefore captures a key step in the genesis of a marine-based WAIS and a tipping point in Antarctic ice-sheet evolution.

Description: Empirical evidence demonstrates that lakes and reservoirs are warming across the globe. Consequently, there is an increased need to project future changes in lake thermal structure and resulting changes in lake biogeochemistry in order to plan for the likely impacts. Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on lakes have often relied on a single model forced with limited scenario-driven projections of future climate for a relatively small number of lakes. As a result, our understanding of the effects of climate change on lakes is fragmentary, based on scattered studies using different data sources and modelling protocols, and mainly focused on individual lakes or lake regions. This has precluded identification of the main impacts of climate change on lakes at global and regional scales and has likely contributed to the lack of lake water quality considerations in policy-relevant documents, such as the Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Here, we describe a simulation protocol developed by the Lake Sector of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) for simulating climate change impacts on lakes using an ensemble of lake models and climate change scenarios. The protocol prescribes lake simulations driven by climate forcing from gridded observations and different Earth system models under various Representative Greenhouse Gas Concentration Pathways, all consistently bias-corrected on a 0.5° × 0.5° global grid. In ISIMIP phase 2, 11 lake models were forced with these data to project the thermal structure of 62 well-studied lakes where data were available for calibration under historical conditions, and for nearly 17,500 lakes using uncalibrated models and forcing data from the global grid where lakes are present. In ISIMIP phase 3, this approach was expanded to consider more lakes, more models, and more processes. The ISIMIP Lake Sector is the largest international effort to project future water temperature, thermal structure, and ice phenology of lakes at local and global scales and paves the way for future simulations of the impacts of climate change on water quality and biogeochemistry in lakes.

Description: We synthesize 10 topics within climate research where there have been significant advances or emerging scientific consensus since January 2021. The selection of these insights was based on input from an international open call with broad disciplinary scope. Findings concern: (1) new aspects of soft and hard limits to adaptation; (2) the emergence of regional vulnerability hotspots from climate impacts and human vulnerability; (3) new threats on the climate–health horizon – some involving plants and animals; (4) climate (im)mobility and the need for anticipatory action; (5) security and climate; (6) sustainable land management as a prerequisite to land-based solutions; (7) sustainable finance practices in the private sector and the need for political guidance; (8) the urgent planetary imperative for addressing losses and damages; (9) inclusive societal choices for climate-resilient development and (10) how to overcome barriers to accelerate mitigation and limit global warming to below 2°C.

Description: A total of 45 165 171 deaths were analysed in the 406 cities. On average, a 10 µg/m3 increase in ozone during the current and previous day was associated with an overall relative risk of mortality of 1.0018 (95% confidence interval 1.0012 to 1.0024). Some heterogeneity was found across countries, with estimates ranging from greater than 1.0020 in the United Kingdom, South Africa, Estonia, and Canada to less than 1.0008 in Mexico and Spain. Short term excess mortality in association with exposure to ozone higher than maximum background levels (70 µg/m3) was 0.26% (95% confidence interval 0.24% to 0.28%), corresponding to 8203 annual excess deaths (95% confidence interval 3525 to 12 840) across the 406 cities studied. The excess remained at 0.20% (0.18% to 0.22%) when restricting to days above the WHO guideline (100 µg/m3), corresponding to 6262 annual excess deaths (1413 to 11 065). Above more lenient thresholds for air quality standards in Europe, America, and China, excess mortality was 0.14%, 0.09%, and 0.05%, respectively. Conclusions: Results suggest that ozone related mortality could be potentially reduced under stricter air quality standards. These findings have relevance for the implementation of efficient clean air interventions and mitigation strategies designed within national and international climate policies.

Description: © The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Kropp, H., Loranty, M. M., Natali, S. M., Kholodov, A. L., Rocha, A., V., Myers-Smith, I., Abbot, B. W., Abermann, J., Blanc-Betes, E., Blok, D., Blume-Werry, G., Boike, J., Breen, A. L., Cahoon, S. M. P., Christiansen, C. T., Douglas, T. A., Epstein, H. E., Frost, G., V., Goeckede, M., Hoye, T. T., Mamet, S. D., O'Donnell, J. A., Olefeldt, D., Phoenix, G. K., Salmon, V. G., Sannel, A. B. K., Smith, S. L., Sonnentag, O., Vaughn, L. S., Williams, M., Elberling, B., Gough, L., Hjort, J., Lafleur, P. M., Euskirchen, E. S., Heijmans, M. M. P. D., Humphreys, E. R., Iwata, H., Jones, B. M., Jorgenson, M. T., Gruenberg, I., Kim, Y., Laundre, J., Mauritz, M., Michelsen, A., Schaepman-Strub, G., Tape, K. D., Ueyama, M., Lee, B., Langley, K., & Lund, M. Shallow soils are warmer under trees and tall shrubs across arctic and boreal ecosystems. Environmental Research Letters, 16(1), (2021): 015001. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abc994.

Description: Soils are warming as air temperatures rise across the Arctic and Boreal region concurrent with the expansion of tall-statured shrubs and trees in the tundra. Changes in vegetation structure and function are expected to alter soil thermal regimes, thereby modifying climate feedbacks related to permafrost thaw and carbon cycling. However, current understanding of vegetation impacts on soil temperature is limited to local or regional scales and lacks the generality necessary to predict soil warming and permafrost stability on a pan-Arctic scale. Here we synthesize shallow soil and air temperature observations with broad spatial and temporal coverage collected across 106 sites representing nine different vegetation types in the permafrost region. We showed ecosystems with tall-statured shrubs and trees (〉40 cm) have warmer shallow soils than those with short-statured tundra vegetation when normalized to a constant air temperature. In tree and tall shrub vegetation types, cooler temperatures in the warm season do not lead to cooler mean annual soil temperature indicating that ground thermal regimes in the cold-season rather than the warm-season are most critical for predicting soil warming in ecosystems underlain by permafrost. Our results suggest that the expansion of tall shrubs and trees into tundra regions can amplify shallow soil warming, and could increase the potential for increased seasonal thaw depth and increase soil carbon cycling rates and lead to increased carbon dioxide loss and further permafrost thaw.

Description: We thank G Peter Kershaw, LeeAnn Fishback, Cathy Wilson, and Coleen Iversen for assistance in collection of data. We thank the Permafrost Carbon Network for support and organization of the data synthesis. We thank Vladimir Romanovsky for his feedback and contribution of publicly available data. This project was supported by the National Science Foundation (Grant No. 1417745 to M L, Grant No. 1417700 to S M N, Grant No. 1417908 to A K, Grant No. 1556772 to A R, Grant No. 1637459 to L G, Grant No. 1636476 and Grant No. 1503912 to E S E, Grant No. 1806213 to B M J, Grant No. 1833056 to K D T), UK Natural Environment Research Council (Grant No. NE/M016323/1 to I H M S, Grant No. NE/K00025X/1 to G K P, Grant No. NE/K000292/1 to M W), Natural Sciences and Engineering Research (to P L, I H M S, Grant No. RGPIN-2016-04688 to D O), Council of Canada, Canadian Graduate Scholarship to (I H M -S), Greenland Ecosystem Monitoring Programme: ClimateBasis (to J A and K A), The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments (NGEE Arctic) project is supported by the Office of Biological and Environmental Research in the DOE Office of Science (to A L B), Engineer Research and Development Center Army Direct (6.1) Research Program and the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (projects RC-2110 and 18-1170 to T A D), United States Geological Survey (to E E S), Arctic Challenge for Sustainability (ArCS; Grant No. JPMXD1300000000) and ArCS II (Grant No. JPMXD1420318865) (to M U and H I), the Danish National Research Foundation (Grant No. CENPERM DNRF100 to B E), the Academy of Finland (Grant No. 315519), the National Research Foundation of Korea (Grant Nos. NRF-2016M1A5A1901769; KOPRI-PN20081 to K Y and B Y L), Research Network for Geosciences in Berlin and Potsdam (to I G), the Swiss National Science Foundation (Grant No. 140631 to G S S), the URPP Global Change and Biodiversity, University of Zurich (to G S S), the University of Alberta Northern Research Awards (to D O), and the Northern Scientific Training Program (to D O), and UT-Battelle, LLC, under contract DE-AC05-00OR22725 with the US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research (to V G S). S M has been supported by grants and/or in-kind from Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, AMAX Northwest Mining, Co. (North American Tungsten Corp., Ltd), Imperial Oil, Ltd, University of Alberta, Earthwatch International (EI), The Garfield Weston Foundation, Wapusk National Park, Churchill Northern Studies Centre, and the Northern Scientific Training Program. All code for this project are archived (DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.4041165). The data that support the findings of this study are openly available through the Arctic Data Center (Heather Kropp, Michael Loranty, Britta Sannel, Jonathan O'Donnell, Elena Blanc-Betes, et al 2020. Synthesis of soil-air temperature and vegetation measurements in the pan-Arctic. 1990-2016. Arctic Data Center. doi:10.18739/A2736M31X).

Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 125(5), (2020): e2019JC015920, doi:10.1029/2019JC015920.

Description: A major surface circulation feature of the Arctic Ocean is the Transpolar Drift (TPD), a current that transports river‐influenced shelf water from the Laptev and East Siberian Seas toward the center of the basin and Fram Strait. In 2015, the international GEOTRACES program included a high‐resolution pan‐Arctic survey of carbon, nutrients, and a suite of trace elements and isotopes (TEIs). The cruises bisected the TPD at two locations in the central basin, which were defined by maxima in meteoric water and dissolved organic carbon concentrations that spanned 600 km horizontally and ~25–50 m vertically. Dissolved TEIs such as Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, Hg, Nd, and Th, which are generally particle‐reactive but can be complexed by organic matter, were observed at concentrations much higher than expected for the open ocean setting. Other trace element concentrations such as Al, V, Ga, and Pb were lower than expected due to scavenging over the productive East Siberian and Laptev shelf seas. Using a combination of radionuclide tracers and ice drift modeling, the transport rate for the core of the TPD was estimated at 0.9 ± 0.4 Sv (106 m3 s−1). This rate was used to derive the mass flux for TEIs that were enriched in the TPD, revealing the importance of lateral transport in supplying materials beneath the ice to the central Arctic Ocean and potentially to the North Atlantic Ocean via Fram Strait. Continued intensification of the Arctic hydrologic cycle and permafrost degradation will likely lead to an increase in the flux of TEIs into the Arctic Ocean.

Description: Funding for Arctic GEOTRACES was provided by the U.S. National Science Foundation, Swedish Research Council Formas, French Agence Nationale de la Recherche and LabexMER, Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research, and Independent Research Fund Denmark. Data from GEOTRACES cruises GN01 (HLY1502) and GN04 (PS94) have been archived at the Biological and Chemical Oceanography Data Management Office (Biological and Chemical Oceanography Data Management Office (BCO‐DMO); https://www.bco-dmo.org/deployment/638807) and PANGAEA (https://www.pangaea.de/?q=PS94&f.campaign%5B%5D=PS94) websites, respectively. The inorganic carbon data are available at the NOAA Ocean Carbon Data System (OCADS; doi:10.3334/CDIAC/OTG.CLIVAR_ARC01_33HQ20150809).

Description: 2020-10-08

Description: Earthquakes and slow‐slip events interact, however, detailed studies investigating their interplay are still limited. We generate the highest resolution microseismicity catalog to date for the northern Armutlu Peninsula in a ∼1‐year period to perform a detailed seismicity distribution analysis and correlate the results with a local, geodetically observed slow‐slip transient within the same period. Seismicity shows a transition of cluster‐type behavior from swarm‐like to burst‐like, accompanied by an increasing relative proportion of clustered (non‐Poissonian) relative to background (Poissonian) seismicity and gradually decreasing b‐value as the geodetically observed slow‐slip transient ends. The observed slow‐slip transient decay correlates with gradually increasing effective‐stress‐drop values. The observed correlation between the b‐value and geodetic transient highlights the influence of aseismic deformation on seismic deformation and the impact of slow‐slip transients on local seismic hazard.

Description: Plain Language Summary: Seismic and aseismic slip on faults can change the stress state in the crust and affect the recurrence time of earthquakes. Observations of how earthquakes and aseismic fault slip influence each other are limited because of the dearth of synchronous high‐resolution seismological and geodetic data. Here we use high‐resolution earthquake data in the northern Armutlu Peninsula along the Marmara seismic gap of the North Anatolian Fault (Turkey) to correlate the earthquake distribution with a local slow‐slip transient that occurred in the same period. We find that the slow‐slip transient modulates the spatiotemporal and frequency‐magnitude evolution of earthquakes, which highlights the influence of slow fault creep on fast fault slip. Our study demonstrates the importance of considering slow‐slip transients for seismic hazard assessment.

Description: Key Points: Seismicity analysis suggests that both external and internal forcing drive deformation in the Armutlu Peninsula. Temporal correlation between a slow‐slip transient and seismic b‐value highlights interactions between aseismic and seismic deformation. Slow‐slip transients modulate the frequency‐magnitude and spatiotemporal earthquake distribution.

Description: VW momentum grant

Description: Helmotz Association Young Investigator Group http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100009318

Description: Helmholtz‐Zentrum Potsdam—Deutsches GeoForschungs Zentrum GFZ, GIPP http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100010956