ALBERT

Description: Over the years, hurricane track and intensity forecasts and storm surge models and the digital terrain and bathymetry data they depend on have improved significantly. Strides have also been made in knowledge of the detailed variation of the surface wind field driving the surge. The area of least improvement has been in obtaining data on the details of the temporal/spatial variation of the storm surge dome of water as it evolves and inundates the land to evaluate the performance of the numerical models. Tide gages in the vicinity of the landfall are frequently destroyed by the surge. Survey crews dispatched after the event provide no temporal information and only indirect indications of the maximum surge envelope over land. The landfall of Hurricane Bonnie on 26 August 1998, with a surge less than 2 m, provided an excellent opportunity to demonstrate the potential benefits of direct airborne measurement of the temporal/spatial evolution of storm surge. Despite a 160 m variation in aircraft altitude, an 11.5 m variation in the elevation of the mean sea surface relative to the ellipsoid over the flight track, and the tidal variation over the 5 hour data acquisition interval, a survey-quality Global Positioning System (GPS) aircraft trajectory allowed the NASA Scanning Radar Altimeter carried by a NOAA hurricane research aircraft to produce storm surge measurements that generally fell between the predictions of the NOAA SLOSH model and the North Carolina State University storm surge model.

Description: Ascending space vehicles are vulnerable to both natural and triggered lightning. Launches under the jurisdiction of the United States are generally subject to a set of rules called the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria (LLCC). The LLCC protect both the vehicle and the public by assuring that the launch does not take place in conditions posing a significant risk of a lightning strike to the ascending vehicle. Such a strike could destroy the vehicle and its payload, thus causing failure of the mission while releasing both toxic materials and debris. To assure safety, the LLCC are conservative and sometimes they may seriously limit the ability of the launch operator to fly as scheduled even when conditions are benign. In order to safely reduce the number of launch scrubs and delays attributable to the LLCC, the Airborne Field Mill (ABFM) program was undertaken in 2000 - 2001. The effort was directed to collecting detailed high-quality data on the electrical, microphysical, radar and meteorological properties of thunderstorm-associated clouds. The expectation was that this additional knowledge would provide a better physical basis for the LLCC and allow them to be revised to be both safer and less restrictive. That expectation was fulfilled, leading to significant revisions to the LLCC in 2003 and 2005. The 2005 revisions included the application of a new radar-derived quantity called the Volume Averaged Height Integrated Radar Reflectivity (VAHIRR) in the rules governing flight through anvil clouds. Analysis of the ABFM data has continued, and two additional revisions to the LLCC were proposed in late 2006 for adoption in 2007 or 2008. One proposal was to apply the VAHIRR concept to debris clouds, and the other was to reduce the "stand-off distances" in the rules for anvil and/or debris clouds. The stand-off distance is the clearance (out side of the cloud) required between the flight path of the vehicle and the edge of a cloud that it is not permissible to fly through. This paper will discuss these proposed changes in the LLCC and the scientific rationale for adopting or rejecting them based on ABFM data.

Description: Phenology is the study of recurring life-cycle events, of which classic examples include flowering by plants as well as animal migration. Phenological responses are increasingly relevant for addressing applied environmental issues. Yet, challenges remain with respect to spanning scales of observation, integrating observations across taxa, and modeling phenological sequences to enable ecological forecasts in light of future climate change. Recent advances that are helping to address these challenges include refined landscape-scale phenology estimates from satellite data, advanced instrument-based approaches for field measurements, and new cyber-infrastructure for archiving and distribution of products. These advances are aiding in diverse areas including modeling land-surface exchange, evaluating climate-phenology relationships, and aiding land management decisions.

Description: Aerosol extinction profiles are derived from backscatter data by constraining the retrieval with column aerosol optical thickness (AOT), for example from coincident MODIS observations and without reliance on a priori assumptions about aerosol type or optical properties. The backscatter data were acquired with the NASA Langley High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL). The HSRL also simultaneously measures extinction independently, thereby providing an ideal data set for evaluating the constrained retrieval of extinction from backscatter. We will show constrained extinction retrievals using various sources of column AOT, and examine comparisons with the HSRL extinction measurements and with a similar retrieval using data from the CALIOP lidar on the CALIPSO satellite.

Description: Recent high-altitude aircraft measurements with in situ imaging instruments indicated the presence of relatively large (approx.100 microns length), thin (aspect ratios of approx.6:1 or larger) hexagonal plate ice crystals near the tropical tropopause in very low concentrations (〈0.01/L). These crystals were not produced by deep convection or aggregation. We use simple growth-sedimentation calculations as well as detailed cloud simulations to evaluate the conditions required to grow the large crystals. Uncertainties in crystal aspect ratio leave a range of possibilities, which could be constrained by knowledge of the water vapor concentration in the air where the crystal growth occurred. Unfortunately, water vapor measurements made in the cloud formation region near the tropopause with different instruments ranged from 〈2 ppmv to approx.3.5 ppmv. The higher water vapor concentrations correspond to very large ice supersaturations (relative humidities with respect to ice of about 200%). If the aspect ratios of the hexagonal plate crystals are as small as the image analysis suggests (6:1, see companion paper (Lawson et al., 2008)) then growth of the large crystals before they sediment out of the supersaturated layer would only be possible if the water vapor concentration were on the high end of the range indicated by the different measurements (〉3 ppmv). On the other hand, if the crystal aspect ratios are quite a bit larger (approx.10:1), then H2O concentrations toward the low end of the measurement range (approx.2-2.5 ppmv) would suffice to grow the large crystals. Gravity-wave driven temperature and vertical wind perturbations only slightly modify the H2O concentrations needed to grow the crystals. We find that it would not be possible to grow the large crystals with water concentrations less than 2 ppmv, even with assumptions of a very high aspect ratio of 15 and steady upward motion of 2 cm/s to loft the crystals in the tropopause region. These calculations would seem to imply that the measurements indicating water vapor concentrations less than 2ppmv are implausible, but we cannot rule out the possibility that higher humidity prevailed upstream of the aircraft measurements and the air was dehydrated by the cloud formation. Simulations of the cloud formation with a detailed model indicate that homogeneous freezing should generate ice concentrations larger than the observed concentrations (20/L), and even concentrations as low as 20/L should have depleted the vapor in excess of saturation and prevented growth of large crystals. It seems likely that the large crystals resulted from ice nucleation on effective heterogeneous nuclei at low ice supersaturations. Improvements in our understanding of detailed cloud microphysical processes require resolution of the water vapor measurement discrepancies in these very cold, dry regions of the atmosphere.

Description: The Measurements of Humidity in the Atmosphere and Validation Experiments (MOHAVE, MOHAVE-II) inter-comparison campaigns took place at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) Table Mountain Facility (TMF, 34.5(sup o)N) in October 2006 and 2007 respectively. Both campaigns aimed at evaluating the capability of three Raman lidars for the measurement of water vapor in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UT/LS). During each campaign, more than 200 hours of lidar measurements were compared to balloon borne measurements obtained from 10 Cryogenic Frost-point Hygrometer (CFH) flights and over 50 Vaisala RS92 radiosonde flights. During MOHAVE, fluorescence in all three lidar receivers was identified, causing a significant wet bias above 10-12 km in the lidar profiles as compared to the CFH. All three lidars were reconfigured after MOHAVE, and no such bias was observed during the MOHAVE-II campaign. The lidar profiles agreed very well with the CFH up to 13-17 km altitude, where the lidar measurements become noise limited. The results from MOHAVE-II have shown that the water vapor Raman lidar will be an appropriate technique for the long-term monitoring of water vapor in the UT/LS given a slight increase in its power-aperture, as well as careful calibration.

Description: Ozone depletion by chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) was first proposed by Molina and Rowland in their 1974 Nature paper. Since that time, the sci entific connection between ozone losses and CFCs and other ozone depl eting substances (ODSs) has been firmly established with laboratory m easurements, atmospheric observations, and modeling research. This science research led to the implementation of international agreements t hat largely stopped the production of ODSs. In this study we use a fu lly-coupled radiation-chemical-dynamical model to simulate a future world where ODSs were never regulated and ODS production grew at an ann ual rate of 3%. In this "world avoided" simulation 1.7 % of the globa lly-average column ozone is destroyed by 2020, and 67% is destroyed b y 2065 in comparison to 1980. Large ozone depletions in the polar region become year-round rather than just seasonal as is currently observ ed in the Antarctic ozone hole. Very large temperature decreases are observed in response to circulation changes and decreased shortwave radiation absorption by ozone. Ozone levels in the tropical lower strat osphere remain constant until about 2053 and then collapse to near ze ro by 2058 as a result of heterogeneous chemical processes (as curren tly observed in the Antarctic ozone hole). The tropical cooling that triggers the ozone collapse is caused by an increase of the tropical upwelling. In response to ozone changes, ultraviolet radiation increa ses, more than doubling the erythemal radiation in the northern summer midlatitudes by 2060.

Description: This chapter begins with a brief history and background of microwave precipitation sensors, with a discussion of the sensitivity of both passive and active instruments, to trace the evolution of satellite-based rainfall techniques from an era of inference to an era of physical measurement. Next, the highly successful Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission will be described, followed by the goals and plans for the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission and the status of precipitation retrieval algorithm development. The chapter concludes with a summary of the need for space-based precipitation measurement, current technological capabilities, near-term algorithm advancements and anticipated new sciences and societal benefits in the GPM era.

Description: ACE SWEPAM measurements of solar wind field-aligned electrons have been compared with simultaneous measurements of polar rain electrons precipitating over the polar cap and detected by DMSP spacecraft. Such comparisons allow investigation of cross-polarcap gradients in the intensity of otherwise-steady polar rain. The generally good agreement of the distribution functions, f, from the two data sources confirms that direct entry of solar electrons along open field lines is indeed the cause of polar rain. The agreement between the data sets is typically best on the side of the polar cap with most intense polar rain but the DMSP f's in less intense regions can be brought into agreement with ACE measurements by shifting all energies by a fixed amounts that range from tens to several hundred eV. In most cases these shifts are positive which implies that field-aligned potentials of these amounts exist on polar cap field lines which tend to retard the entry of electrons and produce the observed gradients. These retarding potentials undoubtedly appear in order to prevent the entry of low-energy electrons and maintain charge quasi-neutrality that would otherwise be violated since most tailward flowing magnetosheath ions are unable to follow polar rain electrons down to the polar cap. In more limited regions near the boundary of the polar cap there is sometimes evidence for field-aligned potentials of the opposite sign that accelerate polar rain electrons. A solar electron burst is also studied and it is concluded that electrons from such bursts can enter the magnetotail and precipitate in the same manner as polar rain.

Description: During the Super-Tuesday tornado outbreak of 5-6 February 2008, two EF-4 tornadoes occurred in Northern Alabama within 75 km range of the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR, C-band dual-polarimetric). This study will present an analysis of ARMOR radar-indicated dual-polarimetric tornadic debris signatures. The debris signatures were associated with spatially-confined large decreases in the copolar correlation coefficient (rho(hv)hv) that were embedded within broader mesocyclone "hook" signatures. These debris signatures were most obviously manifest during the F-3 to F-4 intensity stages of the tornado(s) and extended to altitudes of approximately 3 km. The rho(hv) signatures of the tornadic debris were the most easily distinguished relative to other polarimetric and radial velocity parameters (e.g., associated with large hail and/or the incipient mesocyclone). Based on our analysis, and consistent with the small number of studies found in the literature, we conclude that dual-polarimetric radar data offer at least the possibility for enhancing specificity and confidence in the process of issuing tornado warnings based only on radar detection of threatening circulation features.