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  • 1
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    A new formulation of equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) (2007)
    Copernicus
    Details
    Publication Date: 2007-03-22
    Description: Equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) is a convenient parameter to quantify the effects of halogens (chlorine and bromine) on ozone depletion in the stratosphere. We show and discuss a new formulation of EESC that now includes the effects of age-of-air dependent fractional release values and an age-of-air spectrum. This new formulation provides quantitative estimates of EESC that can be directly related to inorganic chlorine and bromine throughout the stratosphere. Using this EESC formulation, we estimate that human-produced ozone depleting substances will recover to 1980 levels in 2041 in the midlatitudes, and 2067 over Antarctica. These recovery dates are based upon the assumption that the international agreements for regulating ozone-depleting substances are adhered to. In addition to recovery dates, we also estimate the uncertainties in the estimated time of recovery. The midlatitude recovery of 2041 has a 95% confidence uncertainty from 2028 to 2049, while the 2067 Antarctic recovery has a 95% confidence uncertainty from 2056 to 2078. The principal uncertainties are from the estimated mean age-of-air, and the assumption that the mean age-of-air and fractional release values are time independent. Using other model estimates of age decrease due to climate change, we estimate that midlatitude recovery may be accelerated from 2041 to 2031.
    Electronic ISSN: 1680-7375
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 2
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    What would have happened to the ozone layer if chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) had not been regulated? (2009)
    Copernicus
    Details
    Publication Date: 2009-03-23
    Description: Ozone depletion by chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) was first proposed by Molina and Rowland in their 1974 Nature paper. Since that time, the scientific connection between ozone losses and CFCs and other ozone depleting substances (ODSs) has been firmly established with laboratory measurements, atmospheric observations, and modeling studies. This science research led to the implementation of international agreements that largely stopped the production of ODSs. In this study we use a fully-coupled radiation-chemical-dynamical model to simulate a future world where ODSs were never regulated and ODS production grew at an annual rate of 3%. In this "world avoided" simulation, 17% of the globally-averaged column ozone is destroyed by 2020, and 67% is destroyed by 2065 in comparison to 1980. Large ozone depletions in the polar region become year-round rather than just seasonal as is currently observed in the Antarctic ozone hole. Very large temperature decreases are observed in response to circulation changes and decreased shortwave radiation absorption by ozone. Ozone levels in the tropical lower stratosphere remain constant until about 2053 and then collapse to near zero by 2058 as a result of heterogeneous chemical processes (as currently observed in the Antarctic ozone hole). The tropical cooling that triggers the ozone collapse is caused by an increase of the tropical upwelling. In response to ozone changes, ultraviolet radiation increases, more than doubling the erythemal radiation in the northern summer midlatitudes by 2060.
    Print ISSN: 1680-7316
    Electronic ISSN: 1680-7324
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 3
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    A new formulation of equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) (2007)
    Copernicus
    Details
    Publication Date: 2007-09-03
    Description: Equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) is a convenient parameter to quantify the effects of halogens (chlorine and bromine) on ozone depletion in the stratosphere. We show, discuss, and analyze a new formulation of EESC that now includes the effects of age-of-air dependent fractional release values and an age-of-air spectrum. This EESC can be more appropriately applied to various parts of the stratosphere because of this dependence on mean age-of-air. This new formulation provides quantitative estimates of EESC that can be directly related to inorganic chlorine and bromine throughout the stratosphere. In this paper, we first provide a detailed description of the EESC calculation. We then use this EESC formulation to estimate that human-produced ozone depleting substances will recover to 1980 levels in 2041 in the midlatitudes, and 2067 over Antarctica. These recovery dates are based upon the assumption that the international agreements for regulating ozone-depleting substances are adhered to. In addition to recovery dates, we also estimate the uncertainties and possible problems in the estimated times of recovery. The midlatitude recovery of 2041 has a 95% confidence uncertainty from 2028 to 2049, while the 2067 Antarctic recovery has a 95% confidence uncertainty from 2056 to 2078. The principal uncertainties are from the estimated mean age-of-air and fractional release values, and the assumption that these quantities are time independent. Using other model estimates of age decrease due to climate change, we estimate that midlatitude recovery may be significantly accelerated.
    Print ISSN: 1680-7316
    Electronic ISSN: 1680-7324
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 4
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    Measuring the Antarctic ozone hole with the new Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) (2013)
    Copernicus
    Details
    Publication Date: 2013-10-10
    Description: The new Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) launched on the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite in October 2011 gives a more detailed view of the development of the Antarctic ozone hole than ever before. This instrumental suite extends the long series of satellite ozone measurements that go back to the early 1970s. The OMPS includes two modules – nadir and limb – to measure profile and total ozone concentrations. The new limb module is designed to measure the vertical profile of ozone between the lowermost stratosphere and the mesosphere. The OMPS observations over Antarctica show excellent agreement with the measurements obtained from independent satellite and ground-based instruments. This validation demonstrates that OMPS data can ably extend the ozone time series over Antarctica in the future. The OMPS observations are used to monitor and characterize the evolution of the 2012 Antarctic ozone hole. While large ozone losses were observed in September 2012, a strong ozone rebound occurred in October and November 2012. This ozone rebound is characterized by rapid increases of ozone at mid-stratospheric levels and a splitting of the ozone hole in early November. The 2012 Antarctic ozone hole was the second smallest on record since 1988.
    Electronic ISSN: 1680-7375
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 5
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    What would have happened to the ozone layer if chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) had not been regulated? (2008)
    Copernicus
    Details
    Publication Date: 2008-12-10
    Description: Ozone depletion by chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) was first proposed by Molina and Rowland in their 1974 Nature paper. Since that time, the scientific connection between ozone losses and CFCs and other ozone depleting substances (ODSs) has been firmly established with laboratory measurements, atmospheric observations, and modeling research. This science research led to the implementation of international agreements that largely stopped the production of ODSs. In this study we use a fully-coupled radiation-chemical-dynamical model to simulate a future world where ODSs were never regulated and ODS production grew at an annual rate of 3%. In this "world avoided" simulation, 17% of the globally-average column ozone is destroyed by 2020, and 67% is destroyed by 2065 in comparison to 1980. Large ozone depletions in the polar region become year-round rather than just seasonal as is currently observed in the Antarctic ozone hole. Very large temperature decreases are observed in response to circulation changes and decreased shortwave radiation absorption by ozone. Ozone levels in the tropical lower stratosphere remain constant until about 2053 and then collapse to near zero by 2058 as a result of heterogeneous chemical processes (as currently observed in the Antarctic ozone hole). The tropical cooling that triggers the ozone collapse is caused by an increase of the tropical upwelling. In response to ozone changes, ultraviolet radiation increases, more than doubling the erythemal radiation in the northern summer midlatitudes by 2060.
    Electronic ISSN: 1680-7375
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 6
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    Stratospheric semi-decadal oscillations in NCEP data (2008)
    Copernicus
    Details
    Publication Date: 2008-08-01
    Description: An analysis of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) data is presented to provide a more complete description of the stratospheric 5-year semi-decadal (SD) oscillation (Mayr et al., 2007). The zonal-mean temperature and zonal wind data from the Atmospheric Research R-1 analysis are employed, covering the years from 1962 to 2002 in the altitude range from 10 to 30 km. For diagnostic purposes, the data are separated into the hemispherically symmetric and anti-symmetric components, and spectral analysis is applied to identify the signatures of the SD oscillations. Through the synthesis or filtering of spectral features, the SD modulations of the annual oscillation (AO) and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) are delineated. In agreement with the earlier findings, the magnitude of the SD oscillation is more pronounced when the 30-month QBO dominates during the years from 1975 to 1995. This is consistent with results from a numerical model, which shows that such a QBO generates the SD oscillation through interaction with the 12-month AO. In the zonal winds, the SD oscillation in the NCEP data is confined to equatorial latitudes, where it modulates the symmetric AO and QBO by about 5 m/s below 30 km. In the temperature data, the effect is also seen around the equator, but it is much larger at polar latitudes where the SD oscillation produces variations as large as 2 K. Our data analysis indicates that the SD oscillation is mainly hemispherically symmetric, and it appears to originate at equatorial latitudes where most of the energy resides.
    Print ISSN: 0992-7689
    Electronic ISSN: 1432-0576
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 7
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    Equatorial annual oscillation with QBO-driven 5-year modulation in NCEP data (2007)
    Copernicus
    Details
    Publication Date: 2007-02-01
    Description: An analysis is presented of the stratospheric zonal wind and temperature variations supplied by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The derived zonal-mean variations are employed. Stimulated by modeling studies, the data are separated into the hemispherically symmetric and anti-symmetric components, and spectral analysis is applied to study the 12-month annual oscillation (AO) and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). For data samples that cover as much as 40 years, the zonal wind results reveal a pronounced 5-year modulation of the symmetric AO in the lower stratosphere, which is confined to equatorial latitudes. This modulation is also seen in the temperature variations but extends to high latitudes, qualitatively consistent with published model results. A comparison between different time intervals of the data indicates that the signature of the 5-year oscillation is larger when the QBO of 30 months is more pronounced. Thus there is circumstantial evidence that this particular QBO period is involved in generating the oscillation as was shown in a modeling study (Mayr et al., 2000). In agreement with the model, the spectral analysis also reveals a weak anti-symmetric 5-year oscillation in the zonal wind data, which could interact with the strong anti-symmetric AO to produce the modulation of the symmetric AO. The 30-month QBO is well suited to be synchronized by, and phase-locked to, the equatorial semi-annual oscillation (SAO), and this may explain why this QBO periodicity and its 5-year spin-off are observed to persist for many cycles.
    Print ISSN: 0992-7689
    Electronic ISSN: 1432-0576
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 8
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    Solar cycle signatures in the NCEP equatorial annual oscillation (2009)
    Copernicus
    Details
    Publication Date: 2009-08-19
    Description: Our analysis of temperature and zonal wind data (1958 to 2006) from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis (Re-1), supplied by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), shows that the hemispherically symmetric 12-month equatorial annual oscillation (EAO) contains spectral signatures with periods around 11 years. Moving windows of 44 years show that, below 20 km, the 11-year modulation of the EAO is phase locked to the solar cycle (SC). The spectral features from the 48-year data record reveal modulation signatures of 9.6 and 12 years, which produce EAO variations that mimic in limited altitude regimes the varying maxima and minima of the 10.7 cm flux solar index. Above 20 km, the spectra also contain modulation signatures with periods around 11 years, but the filtered variations are too irregular to suggest that systematic SC forcing is the principal agent.
    Print ISSN: 0992-7689
    Electronic ISSN: 1432-0576
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 9
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    Measuring the Antarctic ozone hole with the new Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) (2014)
    Copernicus
    Details
    Publication Date: 2014-03-06
    Description: The new Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS), which launched on the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite in October 2011, gives a detailed view of the development of the Antarctic ozone hole and extends the long series of satellite ozone measurements that go back to the early 1970s. OMPS includes two modules – nadir and limb – to measure profile and total ozone concentrations. The new limb module is designed to measure the vertical profile of ozone between the lowermost stratosphere and the mesosphere. The OMPS observations over Antarctica show excellent agreement with the measurements obtained from independent satellite and ground-based instruments. This validation demonstrates that OMPS data can ably extend the ozone time series over Antarctica in the future. The OMPS observations are used to monitor and characterize the evolution of the 2012 Antarctic ozone hole. While large ozone losses were observed in September 2012, a strong ozone rebound occurred in October and November 2012. This ozone rebound is characterized by rapid increases of ozone at mid-stratospheric levels and a splitting of the ozone hole in early November. The 2012 Antarctic ozone hole was the second smallest on record since 1988.
    Print ISSN: 1680-7316
    Electronic ISSN: 1680-7324
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 10
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    Stratospheric meteorological conditions in the Arctic polar vortex, 1991 to 1992 (1993)
    In:  Other Sources
    Details
    Publication Date: 2011-08-24
    Description: Stratospheric meteorological conditions during the Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Expedition II (AASE II) presented excellent observational opportunities from Bangor, Maine, because the polar vortex was located over southeastern Canada for significant periods during the 1991-1992 winter. Temperature analyses showed that nitric acid trihydrates (NAT temperatures below 195 K) should have formed over small regions in early December. The temperatures in the polar vortex warmed beyond NAT temperatures by late January (earlier than normal). Perturbed chemistry was found to be associated with these cold temperatures.
    Keywords: METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY
    Type: Science (ISSN 0036-8075); 261; 5125; p. 1143-1146.
    Format: text
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    NASA TECHNICAL REPORTS
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