Publication Date:
2015-03-15
Description:
Despite some notable successes in the control of infectious diseases, transmissible pathogens still pose an enormous threat to human and animal health. The ecological and evolutionary dynamics of infections play out on a wide range of interconnected temporal, organizational, and spatial scales, which span hours to months, cells to ecosystems, and local to global spread. Moreover, some pathogens are directly transmitted between individuals of a single species, whereas others circulate among multiple hosts, need arthropod vectors, or can survive in environmental reservoirs. Many factors, including increasing antimicrobial resistance, increased human connectivity and changeable human behavior, elevate prevention and control from matters of national policy to international challenge. In the face of this complexity, mathematical models offer valuable tools for synthesizing information to understand epidemiological patterns, and for developing quantitative evidence for decision-making in global health.〈br /〉〈br /〉〈a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4445966/" target="_blank"〉〈img src="https://static.pubmed.gov/portal/portal3rc.fcgi/4089621/img/3977009" border="0"〉〈/a〉 〈a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4445966/" target="_blank"〉This paper as free author manuscript - peer-reviewed and accepted for publication〈/a〉〈br /〉〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Heesterbeek, Hans -- Anderson, Roy M -- Andreasen, Viggo -- Bansal, Shweta -- De Angelis, Daniela -- Dye, Chris -- Eames, Ken T D -- Edmunds, W John -- Frost, Simon D W -- Funk, Sebastian -- Hollingsworth, T Deirdre -- House, Thomas -- Isham, Valerie -- Klepac, Petra -- Lessler, Justin -- Lloyd-Smith, James O -- Metcalf, C Jessica E -- Mollison, Denis -- Pellis, Lorenzo -- Pulliam, Juliet R C -- Roberts, Mick G -- Viboud, Cecile -- Isaac Newton Institute IDD Collaboration -- U01 GM110721/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/ -- New York, N.Y. -- Science. 2015 Mar 13;347(6227):aaa4339. doi: 10.1126/science.aaa4339.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands. j.a.p.heesterbeek@uu.nl. ; School of Public Health, Imperial College, London, UK. ; Roskilde University, Roskilde, Denmark. ; Georgetown University, Washington, DC, USA. ; MRC Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge, UK. ; WHO, Geneva, Switzerland. ; Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene Tropical Medicine, London, UK. ; University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK. ; School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, UK. School of Tropical Medicine, University of Liverpool, UK. ; Warwick Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK. ; Department of Statistical Science, University College London, London, UK. ; Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA. ; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA. ; Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK, and Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA. ; Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, UK. ; Department of Biology-Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA. Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, NIH, Bethesda, MD, USA. ; Institute of Natural and Mathematical Sciences, Massey University, Auckland, New Zealand. ; Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, NIH, Bethesda, MD, USA.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25766240" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
Keywords:
Animals
;
Basic Reproduction Number
;
Coinfection
;
Communicable Disease Control
;
*Communicable Diseases/epidemiology/transmission
;
Communicable Diseases, Emerging/epidemiology/transmission
;
Disease Outbreaks
;
*Global Health
;
Health Policy
;
Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/epidemiology
;
Humans
;
*Models, Biological
;
*Public Health
;
Zoonoses/epidemiology/transmission
Print ISSN:
0036-8075
Electronic ISSN:
1095-9203
Topics:
Biology
,
Chemistry and Pharmacology
,
Computer Science
,
Medicine
,
Natural Sciences in General
,
Physics
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