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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2012-02-14
    Description: The Bern3D model was applied to quantify the mechanisms of carbon cycle changes during the Holocene (last 11,000 years). We rely on scenarios from the literature to prescribe the evolution of shallow water carbonate deposition and of land carbon inventory changes over the glacial termination (18,000 to 11,000 years ago) and the Holocene and modify these scenarios within uncertainties. Model results are consistent with Holocene records of atmospheric CO2 and δ13C as well as the spatiotemporal evolution of δ13C and carbonate ion concentration in the deep sea. Deposition of shallow water carbonate, carbonate compensation of land uptake during the glacial termination, land carbon uptake and release during the Holocene, and the response of the ocean-sediment system to marine changes during the termination contribute roughly equally to the reconstructed late Holocene pCO2 rise of 20 ppmv. The 5 ppmv early Holocene pCO2 decrease reflects terrestrial uptake largely compensated by carbonate deposition and ocean sediment responses. Additional small contributions arise from Holocene changes in sea surface temperature, ocean circulation, and export productivity. The Holocene pCO2 variations result from the subtle balance of forcings and processes acting on different timescales and partly in opposite direction as well as from memory effects associated with changes occurring during the termination. Different interglacial periods with different forcing histories are thus expected to yield different pCO2 evolutions as documented by ice cores.
    Print ISSN: 0883-8305
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-9186
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2014-09-03
    Description: Lowe syndrome is a rare X-linked congenital disease that presents with congenital cataracts and glaucoma, as well as renal and cerebral dysfunction. OCRL, an inositol polyphosphate 5-phosphatase, is mutated in Lowe syndrome. We previously showed that OCRL is involved in vesicular trafficking to the primary cilium. Primary cilia are sensory...
    Print ISSN: 0027-8424
    Electronic ISSN: 1091-6490
    Topics: Biology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 1999-04-16
    Description: A low-order physical-biogeochemical climate model was used to project atmospheric carbon dioxide and global warming for scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The North Atlantic thermohaline circulation weakens in all global warming simulations and collapses at high levels of carbon dioxide. Projected changes in the marine carbon cycle have a modest impact on atmospheric carbon dioxide. Compared with the control, atmospheric carbon dioxide increased by 4 percent at year 2100 and 20 percent at year 2500. The reduction in ocean carbon uptake can be mainly explained by sea surface warming. The projected changes of the marine biological cycle compensate the reduction in downward mixing of anthropogenic carbon, except when the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation collapses.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Joos -- Plattner -- Stocker -- Marchal -- Schmittner -- New York, N.Y. -- Science. 1999 Apr 16;284(5413):464-7.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/10205049" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
    Print ISSN: 0036-8075
    Electronic ISSN: 1095-9203
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Computer Science , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2010-01-30
    Description: The processes controlling the carbon flux and carbon storage of the atmosphere, ocean and terrestrial biosphere are temperature sensitive and are likely to provide a positive feedback leading to amplified anthropogenic warming. Owing to this feedback, at timescales ranging from interannual to the 20-100-kyr cycles of Earth's orbital variations, warming of the climate system causes a net release of CO(2) into the atmosphere; this in turn amplifies warming. But the magnitude of the climate sensitivity of the global carbon cycle (termed gamma), and thus of its positive feedback strength, is under debate, giving rise to large uncertainties in global warming projections. Here we quantify the median gamma as 7.7 p.p.m.v. CO(2) per degrees C warming, with a likely range of 1.7-21.4 p.p.m.v. CO(2) per degrees C. Sensitivity experiments exclude significant influence of pre-industrial land-use change on these estimates. Our results, based on the coupling of a probabilistic approach with an ensemble of proxy-based temperature reconstructions and pre-industrial CO(2) data from three ice cores, provide robust constraints for gamma on the policy-relevant multi-decadal to centennial timescales. By using an ensemble of 〉200,000 members, quantification of gamma is not only improved, but also likelihoods can be assigned, thereby providing a benchmark for future model simulations. Although uncertainties do not at present allow exclusion of gamma calculated from any of ten coupled carbon-climate models, we find that gamma is about twice as likely to fall in the lowermost than in the uppermost quartile of their range. Our results are incompatibly lower (P 〈 0.05) than recent pre-industrial empirical estimates of approximately 40 p.p.m.v. CO(2) per degrees C (refs 6, 7), and correspondingly suggest approximately 80% less potential amplification of ongoing global warming.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Frank, David C -- Esper, Jan -- Raible, Christoph C -- Buntgen, Ulf -- Trouet, Valerie -- Stocker, Benjamin -- Joos, Fortunat -- England -- Nature. 2010 Jan 28;463(7280):527-30. doi: 10.1038/nature08769.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zurcherstrasse 111, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland. david.frank@wsl.ch〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20110999" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
    Keywords: Carbon/*metabolism ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Ice/analysis ; *Models, Theoretical ; Temperature ; Time Factors
    Print ISSN: 0028-0836
    Electronic ISSN: 1476-4687
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2009-09-26
    Description: Reconstructions of atmospheric CO(2) concentrations based on Antarctic ice cores reveal significant changes during the Holocene epoch, but the processes responsible for these changes in CO(2) concentrations have not been unambiguously identified. Distinct characteristics in the carbon isotope signatures of the major carbon reservoirs (ocean, biosphere, sediments and atmosphere) constrain variations in the CO(2) fluxes between those reservoirs. Here we present a highly resolved atmospheric delta(13)C record for the past 11,000 years from measurements on atmospheric CO(2) trapped in an Antarctic ice core. From mass-balance inverse model calculations performed with a simplified carbon cycle model, we show that the decrease in atmospheric CO(2) of about 5 parts per million by volume (p.p.m.v.). The increase in delta(13)C of about 0.25 per thousand during the early Holocene is most probably the result of a combination of carbon uptake of about 290 gigatonnes of carbon by the land biosphere and carbon release from the ocean in response to carbonate compensation of the terrestrial uptake during the termination of the last ice age. The 20 p.p.m.v. increase of atmospheric CO(2) and the small decrease in delta(13)C of about 0.05 per thousand during the later Holocene can mostly be explained by contributions from carbonate compensation of earlier land-biosphere uptake and coral reef formation, with only a minor contribution from a small decrease of the land-biosphere carbon inventory.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Elsig, Joachim -- Schmitt, Jochen -- Leuenberger, Daiana -- Schneider, Robert -- Eyer, Marc -- Leuenberger, Markus -- Joos, Fortunat -- Fischer, Hubertus -- Stocker, Thomas F -- England -- Nature. 2009 Sep 24;461(7263):507-10. doi: 10.1038/nature08393.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Sidlerstrasse 5, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19779448" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
    Keywords: Air/analysis ; Animals ; Antarctic Regions ; Anthozoa/growth & development/metabolism ; Atmosphere/chemistry ; Carbon/*analysis/*metabolism ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis/*metabolism ; Carbon Isotopes ; Climate ; Ecosystem ; History, Ancient ; Ice Cover/*chemistry ; Time Factors
    Print ISSN: 0028-0836
    Electronic ISSN: 1476-4687
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2014-12-17
    Description: Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an important greenhouse gas and ozone-depleting substance that has anthropogenic as well as natural marine and terrestrial sources. The tropospheric N2O concentrations have varied substantially in the past in concert with changing climate on glacial-interglacial and millennial timescales. It is not well understood, however, how N2O emissions from marine and terrestrial sources change in response to varying environmental conditions. The distinct isotopic compositions of marine and terrestrial N2O sources can help disentangle the relative changes in marine and terrestrial N2O emissions during past climate variations. Here we present N2O concentration and isotopic data for the last deglaciation, from 16,000 to 10,000 years before present, retrieved from air bubbles trapped in polar ice at Taylor Glacier, Antarctica. With the help of our data and a box model of the N2O cycle, we find a 30 per cent increase in total N2O emissions from the late glacial to the interglacial, with terrestrial and marine emissions contributing equally to the overall increase and generally evolving in parallel over the last deglaciation, even though there is no a priori connection between the drivers of the two sources. However, we find that terrestrial emissions dominated on centennial timescales, consistent with a state-of-the-art dynamic global vegetation and land surface process model that suggests that during the last deglaciation emission changes were strongly influenced by temperature and precipitation patterns over land surfaces. The results improve our understanding of the drivers of natural N2O emissions and are consistent with the idea that natural N2O emissions will probably increase in response to anthropogenic warming.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Schilt, Adrian -- Brook, Edward J -- Bauska, Thomas K -- Baggenstos, Daniel -- Fischer, Hubertus -- Joos, Fortunat -- Petrenko, Vasilii V -- Schaefer, Hinrich -- Schmitt, Jochen -- Severinghaus, Jeffrey P -- Spahni, Renato -- Stocker, Thomas F -- England -- Nature. 2014 Dec 11;516(7530):234-7. doi: 10.1038/nature13971.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉1] College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon 97331, USA [2] Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland. ; College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon 97331, USA. ; Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, California 92037, USA. ; Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland. ; Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Rochester, Rochester, New York 14627, USA. ; National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington 6021, New Zealand.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25503236" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
    Keywords: Antarctic Regions ; Aquatic Organisms/*metabolism ; Atmosphere/*chemistry ; Global Warming ; History, Ancient ; *Ice Cover ; Nitrogen Isotopes/analysis ; Nitrous Oxide/analysis/history/*metabolism ; Oxygen Isotopes/analysis ; Rain ; Temperature ; Time Factors
    Print ISSN: 0028-0836
    Electronic ISSN: 1476-4687
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2013-07-05
    Description: Climate targets are designed to inform policies that would limit the magnitude and impacts of climate change caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and other substances. The target that is currently recognized by most world governments places a limit of two degrees Celsius on the global mean warming since preindustrial times. This would require large sustained reductions in carbon dioxide emissions during the twenty-first century and beyond. Such a global temperature target, however, is not sufficient to control many other quantities, such as transient sea level rise, ocean acidification and net primary production on land. Here, using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC) in an observation-informed Bayesian approach, we show that allowable carbon emissions are substantially reduced when multiple climate targets are set. We take into account uncertainties in physical and carbon cycle model parameters, radiative efficiencies, climate sensitivity and carbon cycle feedbacks along with a large set of observational constraints. Within this framework, we explore a broad range of economically feasible greenhouse gas scenarios from the integrated assessment community to determine the likelihood of meeting a combination of specific global and regional targets under various assumptions. For any given likelihood of meeting a set of such targets, the allowable cumulative emissions are greatly reduced from those inferred from the temperature target alone. Therefore, temperature targets alone are unable to comprehensively limit the risks from anthropogenic emissions.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Steinacher, Marco -- Joos, Fortunat -- Stocker, Thomas F -- England -- Nature. 2013 Jul 11;499(7457):197-201. doi: 10.1038/nature12269. Epub 2013 Jul 3.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉Climate and Environmental Physics, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland. steinacher@climate.unibe.ch〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23823728" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
    Keywords: Atmosphere/chemistry ; Bayes Theorem ; Carbon Cycle ; Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; Climate ; Climate Change/*statistics & numerical data ; Feedback ; Forecasting ; Fossil Fuels ; Greenhouse Effect/statistics & numerical data ; *Models, Theoretical ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; Uncertainty
    Print ISSN: 0028-0836
    Electronic ISSN: 1476-4687
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2012-03-31
    Description: The stable carbon isotope ratio of atmospheric CO(2) (delta(13)C(atm)) is a key parameter in deciphering past carbon cycle changes. Here we present delta(13)C(atm) data for the past 24,000 years derived from three independent records from two Antarctic ice cores. We conclude that a pronounced 0.3 per mil decrease in delta(13)C(atm) during the early deglaciation can be best explained by upwelling of old, carbon-enriched waters in the Southern Ocean. Later in the deglaciation, regrowth of the terrestrial biosphere, changes in sea surface temperature, and ocean circulation governed the delta(13)C(atm) evolution. During the Last Glacial Maximum, delta(13)C(atm) and atmospheric CO(2) concentration were essentially constant, which suggests that the carbon cycle was in dynamic equilibrium and that the net transfer of carbon to the deep ocean had occurred before then.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Schmitt, Jochen -- Schneider, Robert -- Elsig, Joachim -- Leuenberger, Daiana -- Lourantou, Anna -- Chappellaz, Jerome -- Kohler, Peter -- Joos, Fortunat -- Stocker, Thomas F -- Leuenberger, Markus -- Fischer, Hubertus -- New York, N.Y. -- Science. 2012 May 11;336(6082):711-4. doi: 10.1126/science.1217161. Epub 2012 Mar 29.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland. schmitt@climate.unibe.ch〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22461496" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
    Keywords: Antarctic Regions ; *Atmosphere ; *Carbon Cycle ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Carbon Isotopes ; *Climate Change ; *Ice Cover ; Oceans and Seas ; *Seawater ; Temperature ; Time ; Water Movements
    Print ISSN: 0036-8075
    Electronic ISSN: 1095-9203
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Computer Science , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2015-07-04
    Description: The ocean moderates anthropogenic climate change at the cost of profound alterations of its physics, chemistry, ecology, and services. Here, we evaluate and compare the risks of impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems-and the goods and services they provide-for growing cumulative carbon emissions under two contrasting emissions scenarios. The current emissions trajectory would rapidly and significantly alter many ecosystems and the associated services on which humans heavily depend. A reduced emissions scenario-consistent with the Copenhagen Accord's goal of a global temperature increase of less than 2 degrees C-is much more favorable to the ocean but still substantially alters important marine ecosystems and associated goods and services. The management options to address ocean impacts narrow as the ocean warms and acidifies. Consequently, any new climate regime that fails to minimize ocean impacts would be incomplete and inadequate.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Gattuso, J-P -- Magnan, A -- Bille, R -- Cheung, W W L -- Howes, E L -- Joos, F -- Allemand, D -- Bopp, L -- Cooley, S R -- Eakin, C M -- Hoegh-Guldberg, O -- Kelly, R P -- Portner, H-O -- Rogers, A D -- Baxter, J M -- Laffoley, D -- Osborn, D -- Rankovic, A -- Rochette, J -- Sumaila, U R -- Treyer, S -- Turley, C -- New York, N.Y. -- Science. 2015 Jul 3;349(6243):aac4722. doi: 10.1126/science.aac4722.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉Laboratoire d'Oceanographie de Villefranche, CNRS-Institut National des Sciences de l'Univers, F-06230 Villefranche-sur-mer, France. Sorbonne Universites, Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Univ Paris 06, Observatoire Oceanologique, F-06230 Villefranche-sur-mer, France. Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations, Sciences Po, 27 rue Saint Guillaume, F-75007 Paris, France. gattuso@obs-vlfr.fr. ; Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations, Sciences Po, 27 rue Saint Guillaume, F-75007 Paris, France. ; Secretariat of the Pacific Community, B.P. D5, 98848 Noumea Cedex, New Caledonia. ; Nippon Foundation-UBC Nereus Program, University of British Columbia (UBC), Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada. ; Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Am Handelshafen 12, D-27570, Bremenrhaven, Germany. ; Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Sidlerstrasse 5, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland. ; Centre Scientifique de Monaco, 8 Quai Antoine Ier, MC-98000 Monaco, Principality of Monaco. Institut Pierre Simon Laplace/Laboratoire des Science du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR8212, CNRS-Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique et aux Energies Alternatives-Universite de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, Gif sur Yvette, France. ; Ocean Conservancy, 1300 19th Street NW, 8th Floor, Washington, DC 20036, USA. ; Coral Reef Watch, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, College Park, MD 20740, USA. ; Global Change Institute and Australian Research Council Centre for Excellence in Coral Reef Studies, University of Queensland, Building 20, St Lucia, 4072 Queensland, Australia. ; School of Marine and Environmental Affairs, University of Washington, 3707 Brooklyn Avenue NE, Seattle, WA 98105, USA. ; Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK. ; Scottish Natural Heritage, 231 Corstorphine Road, Edinburgh EH12 7AT, Scotland. ; IUCN, Rue Mauverney 28, CH-1196 Gland, Switzerland. ; Environment Laboratories, International Atomic Energy Agency, 4a Quai Antoine 1er, MC-98000 Monaco, Principality of Monaco. ; Program on Science, Technology, and Society, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 79 John F. Kennedy Street, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA. ; Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations, Sciences Po, 27 rue Saint Guillaume, F-75007 Paris, France. Fisheries Economics Research Unit, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada. ; Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, The Hoe, Plymouth PL1 3DH, UK.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26138982" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
    Keywords: Animals ; Aquaculture ; *Aquatic Organisms ; *Carbon Dioxide ; *Ecosystem ; *Global Warming ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health ; Humans ; Oceans and Seas ; Risk ; Travel
    Print ISSN: 0036-8075
    Electronic ISSN: 1095-9203
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Computer Science , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2016-11-17
    Description: Atmospheric CO 2 was ∼90 ppmv lower at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) compared to the late Holocene, but the mechanisms responsible for this change remain elusive. Here we employ a carbon isotope-enabled Earth System Model to investigate the role of ocean circulation in setting the LGM oceanic δ 13 C distribution, thereby improving our understanding of glacial/interglacial atmospheric CO 2 variations. We find that the mean ocean δ 13 C change can be explained by a 378±88 GtC (2 σ ) smaller LGM terrestrial carbon reservoir compared to the Holocene. Critically, in this model, differences in the oceanic δ 13 C spatial pattern can only be reconciled with a LGM ocean circulation state characterized by a weak (10-15 Sv) and relatively shallow (2000-2500 m) North Atlantic Deep Water cell, reduced Antarctic Bottom Water transport (≤10 Sv globally integrated), and relatively weak (6-8 Sv) and shallow (1000-1500 m) North Pacific Intermediate Water formation. This oceanic circulation state is corroborated by results from the isotope-enabled Bern3D ocean model and further confirmed by high LGM ventilation ages in the deep ocean, particularly in the deep South Atlantic and South Pacific. This suggests a poorly ventilated glacial deep ocean which would have facilitated the sequestration of carbon lost from the terrestrial biosphere and atmosphere.
    Print ISSN: 0883-8305
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-9186
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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