ALBERT

Description: Modern reef-building corals sustain a wide range of ecosystem services because of their ability to build calcium carbonate reef systems. The influence of environmental variables on coral calcification rates has been extensively studied, but our understanding of their relative importance is limited by the absence of in situ observations and the ability to decouple the interactions between different properties. We show that temperature is the primary driver of coral colony (Porites astreoides and Diploria labyrinthiformis) and reef-scale calcification rates over a 2-year monitoring period from the Bermuda coral reef. On the basis of multimodel climate simulations (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) and assuming sufficient coral nutrition, our results suggest that P. astreoides and D. labyrinthiformis coral calcification rates in Bermuda could increase throughout the 21st century as a result of gradual warming predicted under a minimum CO2 emissions pathway [representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6] with positive 21st-century calcification rates potentially maintained under a reduced CO2 emissions pathway (RCP 4.5). These results highlight the potential benefits of rapid reductions in global anthropogenic CO2 emissions for 21st-century Bermuda coral reefs and the ecosystem services they provide.

Description: Using inorganic carbon measurements from an international survey effort in the 1990s and a tracer-based separation technique, we estimate a global oceanic anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) sink for the period from 1800 to 1994 of 118 ± 19 petagrams of carbon. The oceanic sink accounts for ∼48% of the total fossil-fuel and cement-manufacturing emissions, implying that the terrestrial biosphere was a net source of CO2 to the atmosphere of about 39 ± 28 petagrams of carbon for this period. The current fraction of total anthropogenic CO2 emissions stored in the ocean appears to be about one-third of the long-term potential.

Description: The domain of the surface ocean and lower atmosphere is a complex, highly dynamic component of the Earth system. Better understanding of the physics and biogeochemistry of the air–sea interface and the processes that control the exchange of mass and energy across that boundary define the scope of the Surface Ocean-Lower Atmosphere Study (SOLAS) project. The scientific questions driving SOLAS research, as laid out in the SOLAS Science Plan and Implementation Strategy for the period 2004–2014, are highly challenging, inherently multidisciplinary and broad. During that decade, SOLAS has significantly advanced our knowledge. Discoveries related to the physics of exchange, global trace gas budgets and atmospheric chemistry, the CLAW hypothesis (named after its authors, Charlson, Lovelock, Andreae and Warren), and the influence of nutrients and ocean productivity on important biogeochemical cycles, have substantially changed our views of how the Earth system works and revealed knowledge gaps in our understanding. As such SOLAS has been instrumental in contributing to the International Geosphere–Biosphere Programme (IGBP) mission of identification and assessment of risks posed to society and ecosystems by major changes in the Earth’s biological, chemical and physical cycles and processes during the Anthropocene epoch. SOLAS is a bottom-up organization, whose scientific priorities evolve in response to scientific developments and community needs, which has led to the launch of a new 10-year phase. SOLAS (2015–2025) will focus on five core science themes that will provide a scientific basis for understanding and projecting future environmental change and for developing tools to inform societal decision-making.

Description: We review data on the absorption of anthropogenic CO2 by Northern Hemisphere marginal seas (Arctic Ocean, Mediterranean Sea, Sea of Okhotsk, and East/Japan Sea) and its transport to adjacent major basins, and consider the susceptibility to recent climatic change of key factors that influence CO2 uptake by these marginal seas. Dynamic overturning circulation is a common feature of these seas, and this effectively absorbs anthropogenic CO2 and transports it from the surface to the interior of the basins. Amongst these seas only the East/Japan Sea has no outflow of intermediate and deep water (containing anthropogenic CO2) to an adjacent major basin; the others are known to be significant sources of intermediate and deep water to the open ocean. Consequently, only the East/Japan Sea retains all the anthropogenic CO2 absorbed during the anthropocene. Investigations of the properties of the water column in these seas have revealed a consistent trend of waning water column ventilation over time, probably because of changes in local atmospheric forcing. This weakening ventilation has resulted in a decrease in transport of anthropogenic CO2 from the surface to the interior of the basins, and to the adjacent open ocean. Ongoing measurements of anthropogenic CO2, other gases and hydrographic parameters in these key marginal seas will provide information on changes in global oceanic CO2 uptake associated with the predicted increasing atmospheric CO2 and future global climate change. We also review the roles of other marginal seas with no active overturning circulation systems in absorbing and storing anthropogenic CO2. The absence of overturning circulation enables anthropogenic CO2 to penetrate only into shallow depths, resulting in less accumulation of anthropogenic CO2 in these basins. As a consequence of their proximity to populated continents, these marginal seas are particularly vulnerable to human-induced perturbations. Maintaining observation programs will make it possible to assess the effects of human-induced changes on the capacity of these seas to uptake and store anthropogenic CO2.

Description: We quantify the oceanic sink for anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) over the period 1994 to 2007 by using observations from the global repeat hydrography program and contrasting them to observations from the 1990s. Using a linear regression–based method, we find a global increase in the anthropogenic CO 2 inventory of 34 ± 4 petagrams of carbon (Pg C) between 1994 and 2007. This is equivalent to an average uptake rate of 2.6 ± 0.3 Pg C year −1 and represents 31 ± 4% of the global anthropogenic CO 2 emissions over this period. Although this global ocean sink estimate is consistent with the expectation of the ocean uptake having increased in proportion to the rise in atmospheric CO 2 , substantial regional differences in storage rate are found, likely owing to climate variability–driven changes in ocean circulation.