ALBERT

Description: Process-based integrated assessment models (IAMs) project long-term transformation pathways in energy and land-use systems under what-if assumptions. IAM evaluation is necessary to improve the models’ usefulness as scientific tools applicable in the complex and contested domain of climate change mitigation. We contribute the first comprehensive synthesis of process-based IAM evaluation research, drawing on a wide range of examples across six different evaluation methods including historical simulations, stylised facts, and model diagnostics. For each evaluation method, we identify progress and milestones to date, and draw out lessons learnt as well as challenges remaining. We find that each evaluation method has distinctive strengths, as well as constraints on its application. We use these insights to propose a systematic evaluation framework combining multiple methods to establish the appropriateness, interpretability, credibility, and relevance of process-based IAMs as useful scientific tools for informing climate policy. We also set out a programme of evaluation research to be mainstreamed both within and outside the IAM community.

Description: Global warming can still be limited to 1.5°C by 2100 with low overshoot while ensuring that the poor are not hit hardest by climate policies and climate impacts. This is achieved by immediately introducing broad carbon pricing together with re-distributive policies using carbon pricing revenues and further measures to reduce energy consumption, accelerate technological transitions, and transform the land sector. The results from multiple integrated assessment models show that a combination of producer and consumer-oriented measures can work together to rapidly reduce emissions. They also show that re-distributive policies buffer the impact on poor households while allowing them to reap the benefit of avoided climate impacts in the longer term. This demonstrates that a global net zero transition done right not only safeguards the climate but also protects against worsening global inequality. The comprehensive results on 1.5°C pathways in line with the Paris Agreement are synthesised in this report of the European research project NAVIGATE. The new report published at COP28 provides a blueprint for achieving a rapid, fair and efficient transformation to net zero emissions.

Description: In this work we discuss various selected mission concepts addressing Venus evolution through time. More specifically, we address investigations and payload instrument concepts supporting scientific goals and open questions presented in the companion articles of this volume. Also included are their related investigations (observations & modeling) and discussion of which measurements and future data products are needed to better constrain Venus’ atmosphere, climate, surface, interior and habitability evolution through time. A new fleet of Venus missions has been selected, and new mission concepts will continue to be considered for future selections. Missions under development include radar-equipped ESA-led EnVision M5 orbiter mission (European Space Agency 2021), NASA-JPL’s VERITAS orbiter mission (Smrekar et al. 2022a), NASA-GSFC’s DAVINCI entry probe/flyby mission (Garvin et al. 2022a). The data acquired with the VERITAS, DAVINCI, and EnVision from the end of this decade will fundamentally improve our understanding of the planet’s long term history, current activity and evolutionary path. We further describe future mission concepts and measurements beyond the current framework of selected missions, as well as the synergies between these mission concepts, ground-based and space-based observatories and facilities, laboratory measurements, and future algorithmic or modeling activities that pave the way for the development of a Venus program that extends into the 2040s (Wilson et al. 2022).

Description: Venus today is inhospitable at the surface, its average temperature of 750 K being incompatible to the existence of life as we know it. However, the potential for past surface habitability and upper atmosphere (cloud) habitability at the present day is hotly debated, as the ongoing discussion regarding a possible phosphine signature coming from the clouds shows. We review current understanding about the evolution of Venus with special attention to scenarios where the planet may have been capable of hosting microbial life. We compare the possibility of past habitability on Venus to the case of Earth by reviewing the various hypotheses put forth concerning the origin of habitable conditions and the emergence and evolution of plate tectonics on both planets. Life emerged on Earth during the Hadean when the planet was dominated by higher mantle temperatures (by about ), an uncertain tectonic regime that likely included squishy lid/plume-lid and plate tectonics, and proto continents. Despite the lack of well-preserved crust dating from the Hadean and Paleoarchean, we attempt to review current understanding of the environmental conditions during this critical period based on zircon crystals and geochemical signatures from this period, as well as studies of younger, relatively well-preserved rocks from the Paleoarchean. For these early, primitive life forms, the tectonic regime was not critical but it became an important means of nutrient recycling, with possible consequences on the global environment in the long-term, that was essential to the continuation of habitability and the evolution of life. For early Venus, the question of stable surface water is closely related to tectonics. We discuss potential transitions between stagnant lid and (episodic) tectonics with crustal recycling, as well as consequences for volatile cycling between Venus’ interior and atmosphere. In particular, we review insights into Venus’ early climate and examine critical questions about early rotation speed, reflective clouds, and silicate weathering, and summarize implications for Venus’ long-term habitability. Finally, the state of knowledge of the Venusian clouds and the proposed detection of phosphine is covered.

Description: The Observing Air–Sea Interactions Strategy (OASIS) is a new United Nations Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development programme working to develop a practical, integrated approach for observing air–sea interactions globally for improved Earth system (including ecosystem) forecasts, CO2 uptake assessments called for by the Paris Agreement, and invaluable surface ocean information for decision makers. Our “Theory of Change” relies upon leveraged multi-disciplinary activities, partnerships, and capacity strengthening. Recommendations from 〉40 OceanObs’19 community papers and a series of workshops have been consolidated into three interlinked Grand Ideas for creating #1: a globally distributed network of mobile air–sea observing platforms built around an expanded array of long-term time-series stations; #2: a satellite network, with high spatial and temporal resolution, optimized for measuring air–sea fluxes; and #3: improved representation of air–sea coupling in a hierarchy of Earth system models. OASIS activities are organized across five Theme Teams: (1) Observing Network Design & Model Improvement; (2) Partnership & Capacity Strengthening; (3) UN Decade OASIS Actions; (4) Best Practices & Interoperability Experiments; and (5) Findable–Accessible–Interoperable–Reusable (FAIR) models, data, and OASIS products. Stakeholders, including researchers, are actively recruited to participate in Theme Teams to help promote a predicted, safe, clean, healthy, resilient, and productive ocean.

Description: Great claims have been made about the benefits of dematerialization in a digital service economy. However, digitalization has historically increased environmental impacts at local and planetary scales, affecting labor markets, resource use, governance, and power relationships. Here we study the past, present, and future of digitalization through the lens of three interdependent elements of the Anthropocene: (a) planetary boundaries and stability, (b) equity within and between countries, and (c) human agency and governance, mediated via (i) increasing resource efficiency, (ii) accelerating consumption and scale effects, (iii) expanding political and economic control, and (iv) deteriorating social cohesion. While direct environmental impacts matter, the indirect and systemic effects of digitalization are more profoundly reshaping the relationship between humans, technosphere and planet. We develop three scenarios: planetary instability, green but inhumane, and deliberate for the good. We conclude with identifying leverage points that shift human–digital–Earth interactions toward sustainability.

Description: The introduction of high-resolution ocean model simulations has significantly improved the fidelity of the pathways constituting the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) at subpolar latitudes. However, the progression from eddy-parameterised to eddy-rich ocean models has also introduced new biases in the subpolar North Atlantic, including larger-than-observed dense water formation over the Subpolar Gyre (SPG). Here, we use Lagrangian trajectories initialised across the Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program (OSNAP) array to explore the influence of these biases on the structure of the subpolar AMOC in three ocean hindcast simulations at resolutions ranging from 1º to 1/12º. We show that the strength of the AMOC simulated across OSNAP increases substantially with increasing model resolution. The stronger overturning found at high resolution is explained by an intensification of the SPG, which yields greater dense water formation along the boundary currents. The simulated strength of the SPG circulation is determined by the initial model spin-up, where we find a marked salinification of the upper Labrador Sea at eddy-permitting and eddy-rich resolutions. As a result, the area of wintertime surface density outcrops ventilating the SPG interior increases dramatically during the initial decade, yielding a rapid accumulation of dense water at depth. Isopycnals, therefore, slope more steeply across the subpolar basin at higher resolution, producing a stronger, contracted SPG circulation, which enables a greater inflow of saline subtropical waters into the eastern SPG. The downstream propagation of these salinity anomalies represents an important positive feedback mechanism, reinforcing existing model biases in the upper Labrador Sea.