ALBERT

Description: Every year, about four percent of the plastic waste generated worldwide ends up in the ocean. What happens to the plastic there is poorly understood, though a growing body of evidence suggests it is rapidly spreading throughout the global ocean. The mechanisms of this spread are straightforward for buoyant larger plastics that can be accurately modelled using Lagrangian particle models. But the fate of the smallest size fractions (the microplastics) are less straightforward, in part because they can aggregate in sinking marine snow and faecal pellets. This biologically-mediated pathway is suspected to be a primary surface microplastic removal mechanism, but exactly how it might work in the real ocean is unknown. We search the parameter space of a new microplastic model embedded in an earth system model to show that biological uptake can significantly shape global microplastic inventory and distributions and even account for the budgetary “missing” fraction of surface microplastic, despite being an inefficient removal mechanism. While a lack of observational data hampers our ability to choose a set of “best” model parameters, our effort represents a first tool for quantitatively assessing hypotheses for microplastic interaction with ocean biology at the global scale.

Description: Nitrous oxide (N2O), like carbon dioxide, is a long-lived greenhouse gas that accumulates in the atmosphere. Over the past 150 years, increasing atmospheric N2O concentrations have contributed to stratospheric ozone depletion1 and climate change2, with the current rate of increase estimated at 2 per cent per decade. Existing national inventories do not provide a full picture of N2O emissions, owing to their omission of natural sources and limitations in methodology for attributing anthropogenic sources. Here we present a global N2O inventory that incorporates both natural and anthropogenic sources and accounts for the interaction between nitrogen additions and the biochemical processes that control N2O emissions. We use bottom-up (inventory, statistical extrapolation of flux measurements, process-based land and ocean modelling) and top-down (atmospheric inversion) approaches to provide a comprehensive quantification of global N2O sources and sinks resulting from 21 natural and human sectors between 1980 and 2016. Global N2O emissions were 17.0 (minimum–maximum estimates: 12.2–23.5) teragrams of nitrogen per year (bottom-up) and 16.9 (15.9–17.7) teragrams of nitrogen per year (top-down) between 2007 and 2016. Global human-induced emissions, which are dominated by nitrogen additions to croplands, increased by 30% over the past four decades to 7.3 (4.2–11.4) teragrams of nitrogen per year. This increase was mainly responsible for the growth in the atmospheric burden. Our findings point to growing N2O emissions in emerging economies—particularly Brazil, China and India. Analysis of process-based model estimates reveals an emerging N2O–climate feedback resulting from interactions between nitrogen additions and climate change. The recent growth in N2O emissions exceeds some of the highest projected emission scenarios3,4, underscoring the urgency to mitigate N2O emissions.

Description: Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a long-lived potent greenhouse gas and stratospheric ozone-depleting substance, which has been accumulating in the atmosphere since the pre-industrial period. The mole fraction of atmospheric N2O has increased by nearly 25 % from 270 parts per billion (ppb) in 1750 to 336 ppb in 2022, with the fastest annual growth rate since 1980 of more than 1.3 ppb yr-1 in both 2020 and 2021. As a core component of our global greenhouse gas assessments coordinated by the Global Carbon Project (GCP), we present a global N2O budget that incorporates both natural and anthropogenic sources and sinks, and accounts for the interactions between nitrogen additions and the biochemical processes that control N2O emissions. We use Bottom-Up (BU: inventory, statistical extrapolation of flux measurements, process-based land and ocean modelling) and Top-Down (TD: atmospheric measurement-based inversion) approaches. We provide a comprehensive quantification of global N2O sources and sinks in 21 natural and anthropogenic categories in 18 regions between 1980 and 2020. We estimate that total annual anthropogenic N2O emissions increased 40 % (or 1.9 Tg N yr-1) in the past four decades (1980–2020). Direct agricultural emissions in 2020, 3.9 Tg N yr−1 (best estimate) represent the large majority of anthropogenic emissions, followed by other direct anthropogenic sources (including ‘Fossil fuel and industry’, ‘Waste and wastewater’, and ‘Biomass burning’ (2.1 Tg N yr−1), and indirect anthropogenic sources (1.3 Tg N yr−1). For the year 2020, our best estimate of total BU emissions for natural and anthropogenic sources was 18.3 (lower-upper bounds: 10.5–27.0) Tg N yr-1, close to our TD estimate of 17.0 (16.6–17.4) Tg N yr-1. For the period 2010–2019, the annual BU decadal-average emissions for natural plus anthropogenic sources were 18.1 (10.4–25.9) Tg N yr-1 and TD emissions were 17.4 (15.8–19.20 Tg N yr-1. The once top emitter Europe has reduced its emissions since the 1980s by 31 % while those of emerging economies have grown, making China the top emitter since the 2010s. The observed atmospheric N2O concentrations in recent years have exceeded projected levels under all scenarios in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), underscoring the urgency to reduce anthropogenic N2O emissions. To evaluate mitigation efforts and contribute to the Global Stocktake of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, we propose establishing a global network for monitoring and modeling N2O from the surface through the stratosphere. The data presented in this work can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/RQ8P-2Z4R (Tian et al. 2023).

Description: The marine biological carbon pump (BCP) stores carbon in the ocean interior, isolating it from exchange with the atmosphere and thereby coregulating atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). As the BCP commonly is equated with the flux of organic material to the ocean interior, termed “export flux,” a change in export flux is perceived to directly impact atmospheric CO 2 , and thus climate. Here, we recap how this perception contrasts with current understanding of the BCP, emphasizing the lack of a direct relationship between global export flux and atmospheric CO 2 . We argue for the use of the storage of carbon of biological origin in the ocean interior as a diagnostic that directly relates to atmospheric CO 2 , as a way forward to quantify the changes in the BCP in a changing climate. The diagnostic is conveniently applicable to both climate model data and increasingly available observational data. It can explain a seemingly paradoxical response under anthropogenic climate change: Despite a decrease in export flux, the BCP intensifies due to a longer reemergence time of biogenically stored carbon back to the ocean surface and thereby provides a negative feedback to increasing atmospheric CO 2 . This feedback is notably small compared with anthropogenic CO 2 emissions and other carbon‐climate feedbacks. In this Opinion paper, we advocate for a comprehensive view of the BCP's impact on atmospheric CO 2 , providing a prerequisite for assessing the effectiveness of marine CO 2 removal approaches that target marine biology.

Description: Global biogeochemical ocean models help to investigate the present and potential future state of the ocean, its productivity and cascading effects on higher trophic levels such as fish. They are often subjectively tuned against data sets of inorganic tracers and surface chlorophyll and only very rarely against organic components such as particulate organic carbon or zooplankton. The resulting uncertainty in biogeochemical model parameters (and parameterisations) associated with these components can explain some of the large spread of global model solutions with regard to the cycling of organic matter and its impacts on biogeochemical tracer distributions, such as oxygen minimum zones (OMZs). A second source of uncertainty arises from differences in the model spin-up length as, so far, there seems to be no agreement on the required simulation time that should elapse before a global model is assessed against observations. We investigated these two sources of uncertainty by optimising a global biogeochemical ocean model against the root-mean-squared error (RMSE) of six different combinations of data sets and different spin-up times. Besides nutrients and oxygen, the observational data sets also included phyto- and zooplankton, as well as dissolved and particulate organic phosphorus (DOP and POP, respectively). We further analysed the optimised model performance with regard to global biogeochemical fluxes, oxygen inventory and OMZ volume. Following the optimisation procedure, we evaluated the RMSE for all tracers located in the upper 100 m (except for POP, for which we considered the entire vertical domain), regardless of their consideration during optimisation. For the different optimal model solutions, we find a narrow range of the RMSE, between 14 % of the average RMSE after 10 years and 24 % after 3000 years of simulation. Global biogeochemical fluxes, global oxygen bias and OMZ volume showed a much stronger divergence among the models and over time than RMSE, indicating that even models that are similar with regard to local surface tracer concentrations can perform very differently when assessed against the global diagnostics for oxygen. Considering organic tracers in the optimisation had a strong impact on the particle flux exponent (Martin b) and may reduce much of the uncertainty in this parameter and the resulting deep particle flux. Independent of the optimisation setup, the OMZ volume showed a particularly sensitive response with strong trends over time, even after 3000 years of simulation time (despite the constant physical forcing); a high sensitivity to simulation time; and the highest sensitivity to model parameters arising from the tuning strategy setup (variation of almost 80 % of the ensemble mean). In conclusion, calibration against observations of organic tracers can help to improve global biogeochemical models even after short spin-up times; here especially, observations of deep particle flux could provide a powerful constraint. However, a large uncertainty remains with regard to global OMZ volume and its evolution over time, which can show very dynamic behaviour during the model spin-up, which renders temporal extrapolation to a final equilibrium state difficult if not impossible. Given that the real ocean shows variations on many timescales, the assumption of observations representing a steady-state ocean may require some reconsideration.

Description: Global warming has driven a loss of dissolved oxygen in the ocean in recent decades. We demonstrate the potential for an additional anthropogenic driver of deoxygenation, in which zooplankton consumption of microplastic reduces the grazing on primary producers. In regions where primary production is not limited by macronutrient availability, the reduction of grazing pressure on primary producers causes export production to increase. Consequently, organic particle remineralisation in these regions increases. Employing a comprehensive Earth system model of intermediate complexity, we estimate this additional remineralisation could decrease water column oxygen inventory by as much as 10% in the North Pacific and accelerate global oxygen inventory loss by an extra 0.2–0.5% relative to 1960 values by the year 2020. Although significant uncertainty accompanies these estimates, the potential for physical pollution to have a globally significant biogeochemical signal that exacerbates the consequences of climate warming is a novel feedback not yet considered in climate research.

Description: Key points: Models performing similarly with respect to global NO3, PO4, and O2 distributions yield diverse responses in marine N2 fixation to warming • Marine N2 fixation trends are sensitive to whether iron limits primary production in upwelling regions, for example, the Eastern Tropical Pacific Biological nitrogen fixation is an important oceanic nitrogen source, potentially stabilizing marine fertility in an increasingly stratified and nutrient-depleted ocean. Iron limitation of low latitude primary producers has been previously demonstrated to affect simulated regional ecosystem responses to climate warming or nitrogen cycle perturbation. Here we use three biogeochemical models that vary in their representation of the iron cycle to estimate change in the marine nitrogen cycle under a high CO2 emissions future scenario (RCP8.5). The first model neglects explicit iron effects on biology (NoFe), the second utilizes prescribed, seasonally-cyclic iron concentrations and associated limitation factors (FeMask), and the third contains a fully dynamic iron cycle (FeDyn). Models were calibrated using observed fields to produce near-equivalent nutrient and oxygen fits, with productivity ranging from 49 to 75 Pg C yr−1. Global marine nitrogen fixation increases by 71.1% with respect to the preindustrial value by the year 2100 in NoFe, while it remains stable (0.7% decrease in FeMask and 0.3% increase in FeDyn) in explicit iron models. The mitigation of global nitrogen fixation trend in the models that include a representation of iron originates in the Eastern boundary upwelling zones, where the bottom-up control of iron limitation reduces export production with warming, which shrinks the oxygen deficient volume, and reduces denitrification. Warming-induced trends in the oxygen deficient volume in the upwelling zones have a cascading effect on the global nitrogen cycle, just as they have previously been shown to affect tropical net primary production.

Description: The consideration of marine biogeochemistry is essential for simulating the carbon cycle in an Earth system model. Here we present the implementation and evaluation of a marine biogeochemical model, Model of Oceanic Pelagic Stoichiometry (MOPS) in the Flexible Ocean and Climate Infrastructure (FOCI) climate model. FOCI-MOPS enables the simulation of marine biological processes, the marine carbon, nitrogen and oxygen cycles, air-sea gas exchange of CO2 and O2, and simulations with prescribed atmospheric CO2 or CO2 emissions. A series of experiments covering the historical period (1850–2014) were performed following the DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) and CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6) protocols. Overall, modelled biogeochemical tracer distributions and fluxes, as well as transient evolution in surface air temperature, air-sea CO2 fluxes, and changes of ocean carbon and heat, are in good agreement with observations. Modelled inorganic and organic tracer distributions are quantitatively evaluated by statistically-derived metrics. Results of the FOCI-MOPS model, also including sea surface temperature, surface pH, oxygen (100–600 m), nitrate (0–100 m), and primary production, are within the range of other CMIP6 model results. Overall, the evaluation of FOCI-MOPS indicates its suitability for Earth climate system simulations

Description: The ability of marine diazotrophs to fix dinitrogen gas (N₂) is one of the most influential yet enigmatic processes in the ocean. With their activity diazotrophs support biological production by fixing about 100-200 Tg N/yr of bioavailable nitrogen (N), an essential limiting nutrient. Despite their important role, the factors that control the distribution of diazotrophs and their ability to fix N₂ are not fully elucidated. We discuss insights that can be gained from the emerging picture of a wide geographical distribution of marine diazotrophs and provide a critical assessment of environmental (bottom-up) versus trophic (top-down) controls. We present a simplified theoretical framework to understand how top-down control affects competition for resources that determine ecological niches. Selective grazing on non-fixing phytoplankton is identified as a critical process that can broaden the ability of diazotrophs to compete for resources in top-down controlled systems and explain an expanded ecological niche for diazotrophy. Our simplified analysis predicts a larger importance of top-down control in nutrient-rich systems where grazing controls the faster growing phytoplankton, allowing the slower growing diazotrophs to become established. However, these predictions require corroboration by experimental and field data, together with the identification of specific traits of organisms and associated trade-offs related to selective top-down control. Elucidation of these factors could greatly improve our predictive capability for marine N2 fixation. The susceptibility of this key biogeochemical process to future changes may not only be determined by changes in environmental conditions but also via changes in the ecological interactions.