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  • English  (247)
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  • 2020-2023  (247)
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  • 1
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    Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2022)
    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-09-29
    Description: The Working Group II contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report assesses the impacts of climate change, looking at ecosystems, biodiversity, and human communities at global and regional levels. It also reviews vulnerabilities and the capacities and limits of the natural world and human societies to adapt to climate change.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/report
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  • 2
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    ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century (2020)
    In:  The Cryosphere
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between −7.8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between −6.1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28 mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display limited mass gain in East Antarctica.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 3
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    A framework for ensemble modelling of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide: the ISIMIP Lake Sector (2022)
    In:  Geoscientific Model Development
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-07-20
    Description: Empirical evidence demonstrates that lakes and reservoirs are warming across the globe. Consequently, there is an increased need to project future changes in lake thermal structure and resulting changes in lake biogeochemistry in order to plan for the likely impacts. Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on lakes have often relied on a single model forced with limited scenario-driven projections of future climate for a relatively small number of lakes. As a result, our understanding of the effects of climate change on lakes is fragmentary, based on scattered studies using different data sources and modelling protocols, and mainly focused on individual lakes or lake regions. This has precluded identification of the main impacts of climate change on lakes at global and regional scales and has likely contributed to the lack of lake water quality considerations in policy-relevant documents, such as the Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Here, we describe a simulation protocol developed by the Lake Sector of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) for simulating climate change impacts on lakes using an ensemble of lake models and climate change scenarios. The protocol prescribes lake simulations driven by climate forcing from gridded observations and different Earth system models under various Representative Greenhouse Gas Concentration Pathways, all consistently bias-corrected on a 0.5° × 0.5° global grid. In ISIMIP phase 2, 11 lake models were forced with these data to project the thermal structure of 62 well-studied lakes where data were available for calibration under historical conditions, and for nearly 17,500 lakes using uncalibrated models and forcing data from the global grid where lakes are present. In ISIMIP phase 3, this approach was expanded to consider more lakes, more models, and more processes. The ISIMIP Lake Sector is the largest international effort to project future water temperature, thermal structure, and ice phenology of lakes at local and global scales and paves the way for future simulations of the impacts of climate change on water quality and biogeochemistry in lakes.
    Language: English
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  • 4
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    The ICON Earth System Model Version 1.0 (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-08-05
    Description: This work documents the ICON‐Earth System Model (ICON‐ESM V1.0), the first coupled model based on the ICON (ICOsahedral Non‐hydrostatic) framework with its unstructured, icosahedral grid concept. The ICON‐A atmosphere uses a nonhydrostatic dynamical core and the ocean model ICON‐O builds on the same ICON infrastructure, but applies the Boussinesq and hydrostatic approximation and includes a sea‐ice model. The ICON‐Land module provides a new framework for the modeling of land processes and the terrestrial carbon cycle. The oceanic carbon cycle and biogeochemistry are represented by the Hamburg Ocean Carbon Cycle module. We describe the tuning and spin‐up of a base‐line version at a resolution typical for models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). The performance of ICON‐ESM is assessed by means of a set of standard CMIP6 simulations. Achievements are well‐balanced top‐of‐atmosphere radiation, stable key climate quantities in the control simulation, and a good representation of the historical surface temperature evolution. The model has overall biases, which are comparable to those of other CMIP models, but ICON‐ESM performs less well than its predecessor, the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model. Problematic biases are diagnosed in ICON‐ESM in the vertical cloud distribution and the mean zonal wind field. In the ocean, sub‐surface temperature and salinity biases are of concern as is a too strong seasonal cycle of the sea‐ice cover in both hemispheres. ICON‐ESM V1.0 serves as a basis for further developments that will take advantage of ICON‐specific properties such as spatially varying resolution, and configurations at very high resolution.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: ICON‐ESM is a completely new coupled climate and earth system model that applies novel design principles and numerical techniques. The atmosphere model applies a non‐hydrostatic dynamical core, both atmosphere and ocean models apply unstructured meshes, and the model is adapted for high‐performance computing systems. This article describes how the component models for atmosphere, land, and ocean are coupled together and how we achieve a stable climate by setting certain tuning parameters and performing sensitivity experiments. We evaluate the performance of our new model by running a set of experiments under pre‐industrial and historical climate conditions as well as a set of idealized greenhouse‐gas‐increase experiments. These experiments were designed by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) and allow us to compare the results to those from other CMIP models and the predecessor of our model, the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model. While we diagnose overall satisfactory performance, we find that ICON‐ESM features somewhat larger biases in several quantities compared to its predecessor at comparable grid resolution. We emphasize that the present configuration serves as a basis from where future development steps will open up new perspectives in earth system modeling.
    Description: Key Points: This work documents ICON‐ESM 1.0, the first version of a coupled model based on the ICON framework. Performance of ICON‐ESM is assessed by means of CMIP6 Diagnosis, Evaluation, and Characterization of Klima experiments at standard CMIP‐type resolution. ICON‐ESM reproduces the observed temperature evolution. Biases in clouds, winds, sea‐ice, and ocean properties are larger than in MPI‐ESM.
    Description: European Union H2020 ESM2025
    Description: European Union H2020 COMFORT
    Description: European Union H2020ESiWACE2
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft TRR181
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft EXC 2037
    Description: European Union H2020
    Description: Deutscher Wetterdienst
    Description: Bundesministerium fuer Bildung und Forschung
    Description: http://esgf-data.dkrz.de/search/cmip6-dkrz/
    Description: https://mpimet.mpg.de/en/science/modeling-with-icon/code-availability
    Description: http://cera-www.dkrz.de/WDCC/ui/Compact.jsp?acronym=RUBY-0_ICON-_ESM_V1.0_Model
    Keywords: ddc:550.285 ; ddc:551.63
    Language: English
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  • 5
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    Results of the AbuMIP experiments: The Antarctic BUttressing Model Intercomparison Project (2020)
    CERN / Zenodo
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: This archive provides the model result of the AbuMIP experiments: The Antarctic BUttressing Model Intercomparison Project.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper
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  • 6
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    Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6 (2021)
    In:  Earth System Dynamics
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the primary future climate projections within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models for concentration driven simulations. We limit our scope to the analysis of strictly geophysical outcomes: mainly global averages and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation. We also compare CMIP6 projections to CMIP5 results, especially for those scenarios that were designed to provide continuity across the CMIP phases, at the same time highlighting important differences in forcing composition, as well as in results. The range of future temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the century encompassing the Tier 1 experiments (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and SSP1-1.9 spans a larger range of outcomes compared to CMIP5, due to higher warming (by 1.15 °C) reached at the upper end of the 5–95 % envelope of the highest scenario, SSP5-8.5. This is due to both the wider range of radiative forcing that the new scenarios cover and to higher climate sensitivities in some of the new models compared to their CMIP5 predecessors. Spatial patterns of change for temperature and precipitation averaged over models and scenarios have familiar features, and an analysis of their variations confirms model structural differences to be the dominant source of uncertainty. Models also differ with respect to the size and evolution of internal variability as measured by individual models' initial condition ensembles' spread, according to a set of initial condition ensemble simulations available under SSP3-7.0. The same experiments suggest a tendency for internal variability to decrease along the course of the century, a new result that will benefit from further analysis over a larger set of models. Benefits of mitigation, all else being equal in terms of societal drivers, appear clearly when comparing scenarios developed under the same SSP, but to which different degrees of mitigation have been applied. It is also found that a mild overshoot in temperature of a few decades in mid-century, as represented in SSP5-3.4OS, does not affect the end outcome in terms of temperature and precipitation changes by 2100, which return to the same level as those reached by the gradually increasing SSP4-3.4. Central estimates of the time at which the ensemble means of the different scenarios reach a given warming level show all scenarios reaching 1.5 °C of warming compared to the 1850–1900 baseline in the second half of the current decade, with the time span between slow and fast warming covering 20–28 years from present. 2 °C of warming is reached as early as the late '30s by the ensemble mean under SSP5-8.5, but as late as the late '50s under SSP1-2.6. The highest warming level considered, 5 °C, is reached only by the ensemble mean under SSP5-8.5, and not until the mid-90s.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 7
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    Antarctic ice sheet response to sudden and sustained ice-shelf collapse (ABUMIP) (2020)
    In:  Journal of Glaciology
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Antarctica’s ice shelves modulate the grounded ice flow, and weakening of ice shelves due to climate forcing will decrease their ‘buttressing’ effect, causing a response in the grounded ice. While the processes governing ice-shelf weakening are complex, uncertainties in the response of the grounded ice sheet are also difficult to assess. The Antarctic BUttressing Model Intercomparison Project (ABUMIP) compares ice-sheet model responses to decrease in buttres-sing by investigating the ‘end-member’ scenario of total and sustained loss of ice shelves. Although unrealistic, this scenario enables gauging the sensitivity of an ensemble of 15 ice-sheet models to a total loss of buttressing, hence exhibiting the full potential of marine ice-sheet instability. All models predict that this scenario leads to multi-metre (1–12 m) sea-level rise over 500 years from present day. West Antarctic ice sheet collapse alone leads to a 1.91–5.08 m sea-level rise due to the marine ice-sheet instability. Mass loss rates are a strong func-tion of the sliding/friction law, with plastic laws cause a further destabilization of the Aurora and Wilkes Subglacial Basins, East Antarctica. Improvements to marine ice-sheet models have greatly reduced variability between modelled ice-sheet responses to extreme ice-shelf loss, e.g. compared to the SeaRISE assessments.
    Language: English
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  • 8
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    Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 1: introduction and evaluation of global-mean temperature response (2020)
    In:  Geoscientific Model Development
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Reduced-complexity climate models (RCMs) are critical in the policy and decision making space, and are directly used within multiple Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports to complement the results of more comprehensive Earth system models. To date, evaluation of RCMs has been limited to a few independent studies. Here we introduce a systematic evaluation of RCMs in the form of the Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP). We expect RCMIP will extend over multiple phases, with Phase 1 being the first. In Phase 1, we focus on the RCMs' global-mean temperature responses, comparing them to observations, exploring the extent to which they emulate more complex models and considering how the relationship between temperature and cumulative emissions of CO2 varies across the RCMs. Our work uses experiments which mirror those found in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), which focuses on complex Earth system and atmosphere–ocean general circulation models. Using both scenario-based and idealised experiments, we examine RCMs' global-mean temperature response under a range of forcings. We find that the RCMs can all reproduce the approximately 1 ∘C of warming since pre-industrial times, with varying representations of natural variability, volcanic eruptions and aerosols. We also find that RCMs can emulate the global-mean temperature response of CMIP models to within a root-mean-square error of 0.2 ∘C over a range of experiments. Furthermore, we find that, for the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)-based scenario pairs that share the same IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)-consistent stratospheric-adjusted radiative forcing, the RCMs indicate higher effective radiative forcings for the SSP-based scenarios and correspondingly higher temperatures when run with the same climate settings. In our idealised setup of RCMs with a climate sensitivity of 3 ∘C, the difference for the ssp585–rcp85 pair by 2100 is around 0.23∘C(±0.12 ∘C) due to a difference in effective radiative forcings between the two scenarios. Phase 1 demonstrates the utility of RCMIP's open-source infrastructure, paving the way for further phases of RCMIP to build on the research presented here and deepen our understanding of RCMs.
    Language: English
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  • 9
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    Dominant patterns of interaction between the tropics and mid-latitudes in boreal summer: causal relationships and the role of timescales (2020)
    In:  Weather and Climate Dynamics
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Abstract. Tropical convective activity represents a source of predictability for mid-latitude weather in the Northern Hemi-sphere. In winter, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant source of predictability in the tropics and ex-tratropics, but its role in summer is much less pronounced and the exact teleconnection pathways are not well under-stood. Here, we assess how tropical convection interacts with mid-latitude summer circulation at different intra-seasonal timescales and how ENSO affects these interactions. First, we apply maximum covariance analysis (MCA) between tropical convective activity and mid-latitude geopotential height fields to identify the dominant modes of interaction. The first MCA mode connects the South Asian monsoon with the mid-latitude circumglobal teleconnection pattern. The second MCA mode connects the western North Pacific summer monsoon in the tropics with a wave-5 pattern centred over the North Pacific High in the mid-latitudes. We show that the MCA patterns are fairly insensitive to the selected intra-seasonal timescale from weekly to 4-weekly data. To study the potential causal interdependencies between these modes and with other atmospheric fields, we apply the causal discovery method PCMCI at different timescales. PCMCI extends standard correlation analysis by removing the con-founding effects of autocorrelation, indirect links and com-mon drivers. In general, there is a two-way causal interaction between the tropics and mid-latitudes, but the strength and sometimes sign of the causal link are timescale dependent. We introduce causal maps that show the regionally specific causal effect from each MCA mode. Those maps confirm the dominant patterns of interaction and in addition high-light specific mid-latitude regions that are most strongly con-nected to tropical convection. In general, the identified causal teleconnection patterns are only mildly affected by ENSO and the tropical mid-latitude linkages remain similar. Still, La Niña strengthens the South Asian monsoon generating a stronger response in the mid-latitudes, while during El Niño years the Pacific pattern is reinforced. This study paves the way for process-based validation of boreal summer telecon-nections in (sub-)seasonal forecast models and climate mod-els and therefore works towards improved sub-seasonal pre-dictions and climate projections.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 10
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    10 Must Knows from Biodiversity Science 2022 (2022)
    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-07-12
    Description: In the 10 Must Knows from Biodiversity Science 45 scientists present facts about biodiversity in a well-founded and generally intelligible way. They analyse the complex systems of the earth by highlighting ten key areas, each of which, in turn, is inextricably linked to all the others. And they show ways to stop the continued loss of species diversity and ecosystems, and to promote biodiversity. The underlying aim is to provide policy-makers and society with scientifically validated assessments of the latest knowledge to facilitate improved policy decisions and action at local, regional, national and global levels, in order to conserve the diversity of life – biodiversity. These are the 10MustKnows 2022: 1. Achieving climate and biodiversity protection together 2. Strengthening planetary health 3. Considering hidden biodiversity 4. Promoting biocultural habitats 5. Using forests sustainably 6. Transforming agriculture 7. Protecting land and resources 8. Expanding transnational infrastructure and education for sustainability 9. Ensuring access and open use of research data 10. Setting biodiversity-friendly incentives
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/report
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