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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2021-01-07
    Description: The elemental fluxes and heat flow associated with large aquifer systems can be significant both at local and at regional scales. In fact, large amounts of heat transported by regional groundwater flow can affect the subsurface thermal regime, and the amount of matter discharged towards the surface by large spring systems can be significant relative to the elemental fluxes of surface waters. The Narni-Amelia regional aquifer system (Central Italy) discharges more than 13 m3 sec)1 of groundwater characterised by a slight thermal anomaly, high salinity and high pCO2. During circulation in the regional aquifer, groundwater reacts with the host rocks (dolostones, limestones and evaporites) and mixes with deep CO2-rich fluids of mantle origin. These processes transfer large amounts of dissolved substances, in particular carbon dioxide, and a considerable amount of heat towards the surface. Because practically all the water circulating in the Narni-Amelia system is discharged by few large springs (Stifone-Montoro), the mass and energy balance of these springs can give a good estimation of the mass and heat transported from the entire system towards the surface. By means of a detailed mass and balance of the aquifer and considering the soil CO2 fluxes measured from the main gas emission of the region, we computed a total CO2 discharge of about 7.8 · 109 mol a)1 for the whole Narni-Amelia system. Finally, considering the enthalpy difference between infiltrating water and water discharged by the springs, we computed an advective heat transfer related to groundwater flow of 410 ± 50 MW.
    Description: Published
    Description: 182-196
    Description: 2.4. TTC - Laboratori di geochimica dei fluidi
    Description: 4.5. Studi sul degassamento naturale e sui gas petroliferi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: carbon dioxide degassing ; heat flow ; regional aquifer ; 04. Solid Earth::04.02. Exploration geophysics::04.02.01. Geochemical exploration ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.12. Fluid Geochemistry ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.07. Instruments and techniques
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2021-06-16
    Description: In this study, Mg/Ca, Sr/Ca and Ba/Ca ratios in a Lateglacial to Holocene stalagmite (CC26) from Corchia Cave (central Italy) are compared with stable isotope data to define palaeohydrological changes. For most of the record, the trace element ratios show small absolute variability but similar patterns, which are also consistent with stable isotope variations. Higher trace element-to-calcium values are interpreted as responses to decreasing moisture, inducing changes in the residence time of percolation, producing prior calcite precipitation and/or variations in the hydrological routing. Statistically meaningful levels of covariability were determined using anomalies of Mg/Ca, d18O and d13C. Combining these three time series into a single ‘palaeomoisture-trend’ parameter, we highlight several events of reduced moisture (ca. 8.9–8.4, 6.2, 4.2, 3.1 and 2.0 ka), a humid period between ca. 7.9 and 8.3 ka and other shorter-term wet events at ca. 5.8, 5.3 and 3.7 ka. Most of these events can be correlated with climate changes inferred from other regional studies. For both extremities of the record (i.e. before ca. 12.4 ka and after ca. 0.5 ka) Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca are anti-correlated and show the greatest amplitude of values, a likely explanation for which involves aragonite and/or gypsum precipitation (the latter derived from pyrite oxidation) above the CC26 drip point.
    Description: Published
    Description: 381–392
    Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: central Italy; Corchia Cave; Holocene; speleothems; trace elements ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2021-06-14
    Description: This study is focused on the (micro)biogeochemical features of two close geothermal sites (FAV1 and FAV2), both selected at the main exhalative area of Pantelleria Island, Italy. A previous biogeochemical survey revealed high CH4 consumption and the presence of a diverse community of methanotrophs at FAV2 site, whereas the close site FAV1 was apparently devoid of methanotrophs and recorded no CH4 consumption. Next-Generation Sequencing (NGS) techniques were applied to describe the bacterial and archaeal communities which have been linked to the physicochemical conditions and the geothermal sources of energy available at the two sites. Both sites are dominated by Bacteria and host a negligible component of ammonia-oxidizing Archaea (phylum Thaumarchaeota). The FAV2 bacterial community is characterized by an extraordinary diversity of methanotrophs, with 40% of the sequences assigned to Methylocaldum, Methylobacter (Gammaproteobacteria) and Bejerickia (Alphaproteobacteria); conversely, a community of thermo-acidophilic chemolithotrophs (Acidithiobacillus, Nitrosococcus) or putative chemolithotrophs (Ktedonobacter) dominates the FAV1 community, in the absence of methanotrophs. Since physical andchemical factors of FAV1, such as temperature and pH, cannot be considered limiting for methanotrophy, it is hypothesized that the main limiting factor for methanotrophs could be high NH4+ concentration. At the same time, abundant availability of NH4+ and other high energy electron donors and acceptors determined by the hydrothermal flux in this site create more energetically favourable conditions for chemolithotrophs that outcompete methanotrophs in non-nitrogen-limited soils.
    Description: Published
    Description: 150–162
    Description: 4V. Vulcani e ambiente
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: geothermal soils ; geomicrobiology ; chemolithotrophs ; methanotrophs ; Pantelleria ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.12. Fluid Geochemistry
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2020-10-16
    Description: We propose a version of the pure temporal epidemic type aftershock sequences (ETAS) model: the ETAS model with correlated magnitudes. As for the standard case, we assume the Gutenberg-Richter law to be the probability density for the magnitudes of the background events. Instead, the magnitude of the triggered shocks is assumed to be probabilistically dependent on that of the relative mother events. This probabilistic dependence is motivated by some recent works in the literature and by the results of a statistical analysis made on some seismic catalogs [Spassiani and Sebastiani, J. Geophys. Res. 121, 903 (2016)10.1002/2015JB012398]. On the basis of the experimental evidences obtained in the latter paper for the real catalogs, we theoretically derive the probability density function for the magnitudes of the triggered shocks proposed in Spassiani and Sebastiani and there used for the analysis of two simulated catalogs. To this aim, we impose a fundamental condition: averaging over all the magnitudes of the mother events, we must obtain again the Gutenberg-Richter law. This ensures the validity of this law at any event's generation when ignoring past seismicity. The ETAS model with correlated magnitudes is then theoretically analyzed here. In particular, we use the tool of the probability generating function and the Palm theory, in order to derive an approximation of the probability of zero events in a small time interval and to interpret the results in terms of the interevent time between consecutive shocks, the latter being a very useful random variable in the assessment of seismic hazard.
    Description: Published
    Description: 042134
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2020-12-21
    Description: We detail the Kamil crater (Egypt) structure and refine the impact scenario, based on the geological and geophysical data collected during our first expedition in February 2010. Kamil Crater is a model for terrestrial small-scale hypervelocity impact craters. It is an exceptionally well-preserved, simple crater with a diameter of 45 m, depth of 10 m, and rayed pattern of bright ejecta. It occurs in a simple geological context: flat, rocky desert surface, and target rocks comprising subhorizontally layered sandstones. The high depth-to-diameter ratio of the transient crater, its concave, yet asymmetric, bottom, and the fact that Kamil Crater is not part of a crater field confirm that it formed by the impact of a single iron mass (or a tight cluster of fragments) that fragmented upon hypervelocity impact with the ground. The circular crater shape and asymmetries in ejecta and shrapnel distributions coherently indicate a direction of incidence from the NW and an impact angle of approximately 30 to 45 . Newly identified asymmetries, including the off-center bottom of the transient crater floor downrange, maximum overturning of target rocks along the impact direction, and lower crater rim elevation downrange, may be diagnostic of oblique impacts in well-preserved craters. Geomagnetic data reveal no buried individual impactor masses 〉100 kg and suggest that the total mass of the buried shrapnel 〉100 g is approximately 1050–1700 kg. Based on this mass value plus that of shrapnel 〉10 g identified earlier on the surface during systematic search, the new estimate of the minimum projectile mass is approximately 5 t.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1842–1868
    Description: 3.8. Geofisica per l'ambiente
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Impact craters ; geophysical survey ; iron meteorite ; impact scenario ; 04. Solid Earth::04.02. Exploration geophysics::04.02.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.02. Exploration geophysics::04.02.07. Instruments and techniques ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2020-12-07
    Description: We present new stratigraphic, palaeomagnetic, 87Sr/86Sr and 40Ar/39Ar data from a lacustrine succession of the Sulmona basin, central Italy, which, according to an early study, included six unconformitybounded lacustrine units (from SUL6, oldest, to SUL1, youngest) spanning the interval 〉600 to 2 ka. The results of the present study, on the one hand confirm some of the previous conclusions, but by contrast reveal that units SUL2 and SUL1, previously attributed to the Holocene, are actually equivalent to the older SUL6 and SUL5 units – here dated to 814–〉530 ka and 530–〈457 ka, respectively – and that the U-series dates previously published for both former SUL2 and SUL1 units yielded abnormally young ages. In light of the present results, a reassessment of the chronology of the Sulmona basin succession and a revision of the tephrostratigraphy of the SUL2/SUL6 and SUL1/SUL5 units is in order.
    Description: Published
    Description: 545–551
    Description: 2.2. Laboratorio di paleomagnetismo
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: 40Ar/39Ar dating; central Italy ; Sr isotope composition ; Sulmona lacustrine succession ; Brunhes–Matuyama geomagnetic reversal ; tephrostratigraphy ; U-series dating ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.08. Sediments: dating, processes, transport ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.10. Stratigraphy ; 04. Solid Earth::04.05. Geomagnetism::04.05.06. Paleomagnetism
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2021-06-22
    Description: In this work, we analyse continuous measurements of microseisms to assess the reliability of the fundamental resonance frequency estimated by means of the horizontal-to-vertical (H/V) spectral ratio within the 0.1–1 Hz frequency range, using short-period sensors (natural period of 1 s). We apply the H/V technique to recordings of stations installed in two alluvial basins with different sedimentary cover thicknesses—the Lower Rhine Embayment (Germany) and the Gubbio Plain (Central Italy). The spectral ratios are estimated over the time–frequency domain, and we discuss the reliability of the results considering both the variability of the microseism activity and the amplitude of the instrumental noise. We show that microseisms measured by short period sensors allow the retrieval of fundamental resonance frequencies greater than about 0.1–0.2 Hz, with this lower frequency bound depending on the relative amplitude of themicroseism signal and the self-noise of the instruments. In particular,we show an examplewhere the considered short-period sensor is connected to instruments characterized by an instrumental noise level which allows detecting only fundamental frequencies greater than about 0.4 Hz. Since the frequency at which the peak of the H/V spectral ratio is biased depends upon the seismic signal-to-instrument noise ratio, the power spectral amplitude of instrumental self-noise should be always considered when interpreting the frequency of the peak as the fundamental resonance frequency of the investigated site.
    Description: Published
    Description: 175-184
    Description: 4.1. Metodologie sismologiche per l'ingegneria sismica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: site effects ; fourier analysis ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.01. Earthquake faults: properties and evolution
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2020-12-14
    Description: We study the implications of a recently published mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS), derived from repeated surface elevation measurements from NASA’s ice cloud and land elevation satellite (ICESat) for the time period between 2003 and 2008. To characterize the effects of this new, high-resolution GrIS mass balance, we study the time-variations of various geophysical quantities in response to the current mass loss. They include vertical uplift and subsidence, geoid height variations, global patterns of sea level change (or fingerprints), and regional sea level variations along the coasts of Greenland. Long-wavelength uplifts and gravity variations in response to current or past ice thickness variations are obtained solving the sea level equation, which accounts for both the elastic and the viscoelastic components of deformation. To capture the short-wavelength components of vertical uplift in response to current ice mass loss, which is not resolved by satellite gravity observations, we have specifically developed a high-resolution regional elastic rebound (ER) model. The elastic component of vertical uplift is combined with estimates of the viscoelastic displacement fields associated with the process of glacial-isostatic adjustment (GIA), according to a set of published ice chronologies and associated mantle rheological profiles. We compare the sensitivity of global positioning system (GPS) observations along the coasts of Greenland to the ongoing ER and GIA. In notable contrast with past reports, we show that vertical velocities obtained by GPS data from five stations with sufficiently long records and from one tide gauge at the GrIS margins can be reconciled with model predictions based on the ICE-5G deglaciation model and the ER associated with the new ICESat-derived mass balance.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1457-1474
    Description: 3.3. Geodinamica e struttura dell'interno della Terra
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Sea level change ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.02. Geodynamics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2020-12-15
    Description: We present a time-independent gridded earthquake rate forecast for the European region including Turkey. The spatial component of our model is based on kernel density estimation techniques, which we applied to both past earthquake locations and fault moment release on mapped crustal faults and subduction zone interfaces with assigned slip rates. Our forecast relies on the assumption that the locations of past seismicity is a good guide to future seismicity, and that future large-magnitude events occur more likely in the vicinity of known faults. We show that the optimal weighted sum of the corresponding two spatial densities depends on the magnitude range considered. The kernel bandwidths and density weighting function are optimized using retrospective likelihood-based forecast experiments. We computed earthquake activity rates (a- and b-value) of the truncated Gutenberg–Richter distribution separately for crustal and subduction seismicity based on a maximum likelihood approach that considers the spatial and temporal completeness history of the catalogue. The final annual rate of our forecast is purely driven by the maximum likelihood fit of activity rates to the catalogue data, whereas its spatial component incorporates contributions from both earthquake and fault moment-rate densities. Our model constitutes one branch of the earthquake source model logic tree of the 2013 European seismic hazard model released by the EU-FP7 project ‘Seismic HAzard haRmonization in Europe’ (SHARE) and contributes to the assessment of epistemic uncertainties in earthquake activity rates. We performed retrospective and pseudo-prospective likelihood consistency tests to underline the reliability of our model and SHARE’s area source model (ASM) using the testing algorithms applied in the collaboratory for the study of earthquake predictability (CSEP). We comparatively tested our model’s forecasting skill against the ASM and find a statistically significant better performance for testing periods of 10–20 yr. The testing results suggest that our model is a viable candidate model to serve for long-term forecasting on timescales of years to decades for the European region.
    Description: EC-Research FP7-projects, SHARE, under grant agreement No. 226967 and NERA, under grant agreement No. 262330
    Description: Published
    Description: 1159-1172
    Description: 2T. Tettonica attiva
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Probabilistic forecasting ; Statistical seismology ; Europe ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2021-03-18
    Description: This article presents an integrated approach for the probabilistic systemic risk analysis of a road network considering spatial seismic hazard with correlation of ground motion intensities, vulnerability of the network components, and the effect of interactions within the network, as well as, between roadway components and built environment to the network functionality. The system performance is evaluated at the system level through a global connectivity performance indicator, which depends on both physical damages to its components and induced functionality losses due to interactions with other systems. An object-oriented modeling paradigm is used, where the complex problem of several interacting systems is decomposed in a number of interacting objects, accounting for intra- and interdependencies between and within systems. Each system is specified with its components, solving algorithms, performance indicators and interactions with other systems. The proposed approach is implemented for the analysis of the road network in the city of Thessaloniki (Greece) to demonstrate its applicability. In particular, the risk for the road network in the area is calculated, specifically focusing on the short-term impact of seismic events (just after the earthquake). The potential of road blockages due to collapses of adjacent buildings and overpass bridges is analyzed, trying to individuate possible criticalities related to specific components/subsystems. The application can be extended based on the proposed approach, to account for other interactions such as failure of pipelines beneath the road segments, collapse of adjacent electric poles, or malfunction of lighting and signaling systems due to damage in the electric power network.
    Description: Published
    Description: 524–540
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Systemic vulnerability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 11
    Publication Date: 2021-06-08
    Description: We investigated the high frequency attenuation of S-waves in Southeastern Alps and Northern External Dinarides using waveforms from 331 earthquakes (3.0〈 Mw〈 6.5). The spectral decay parameter, k, was computed using 1345 three component high quality records, collected by the Italian Strong Motion Network (RAN) and by the Short-Period Seismometric Network of North-Eastern Italy (NEI) in the period 1976-2007. Weak motion data from 11 stations of the NEI network and strong motion data collected by 5 accelerometers of the RAN were analyzed. The k parameter was estimated in the 0-250 Km distance range, in a frequency band extending from the corner frequency of the event up to 25 or 45 Hz, using the amplitude acceleration Fourier spectra of S-waves. The observed record-to-record variability of k was modeled by applying a generalized inversion procedure, using both parametric and non-parametric approaches. Our results evidence that k is independent on earthquake size, while it shows both site and distance dependence. Stations of the NEI network present the same increase of k with epicentral distance, Re, and show values of the zero-distance k parameter, k0(S), between 0.017 and 0.053 s. For the whole region, the k increase with distance can be described through a linear model with slope dk/dRe = (1.4±0.1)x10^(-4) s/Km. Assuming an average S-wave velocity, 〈Vs〉=3.34 Km/s between 5 and 15 Km depth, we estimate an average frequency independent quality factor, 〈Qi〉=2140, for the corresponding crustal layer. The non-parametric approach evidences a weak positive concavity of the curve that describes the k increase with Re at about 90 Km distance. This result can be approximated through a piecewise linear function with slopes of 1.0x10^(-4) s/Km and 1.7x10^(-4) s/Km, in accordance with a three layers model where moving from the intermediate to the bottom layer both 〈Qi〉 and 〈Vs〉 decrease. Two regional dependences were found: data from earthquakes located westward to the NEI network evidence weaker attenuation properties, probably because of S-wave reflections from different part of the Moho discontinuity under the eastern Po Plain, at about 25-30 Km depth, while earthquakes located eastward (in western Slovenia), where the Moho deepens up to 45-50 Km, evidence a higher attenuation. Moreover, the k estimates obtained with data from earthquakes located in the area of the 1998 (Mw=5.7) and 2004 (Mw=5.2) Kobarid events are 0.017 s higher than the values predicted for the whole region, probably because of the high level of fracturing that characterizes fault zones. The comparison between measured and theoretical values of k, computed at a few stations with available S-wave velocity profiles, reveals that the major contribution to the total k0(S) is due to the sedimentary column (from surface to 800 m depth). The hard rock section contribution is limited to 0.005 s, in accordance with a maximum contribution of 0.010 s predicted by the non-parametric inversion.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1393-1416
    Description: 3.3. Geodinamica e struttura dell'interno della Terra
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Earthquake source observations ; Body waves ; Seismic attenuation ; Site effects ; Wave propagation ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.04. Ground motion
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 12
    Publication Date: 2021-06-22
    Description: The building materials of the Theatre of Marcellus, 44–11 BCE, reflect Roman builders’ careful selections of tuff and travertine for dimension stone and volcanic aggregates for pozzolanic concretes. The vitric–lithic–crystal Tufo Lionato tuff dimension stone contains a high proportion of lava lithic fragments, which increase its compressive strength and decrease water sorption, enhancing durability. Sophisticated installations of travertine dimension stone reinforce the tuff masonry, which is integrated with durable concrete walls and barrel vaults. The pozzolanic mortars of the concretes contain harenae fossiciae mainly from the intermediate alteration facies of the mid-Pleistocene, scoriaceous Pozzolane Rosse pyroclastic flow. They have pervasive interpenetrating pozzolanic cements, including strätlingite, similar to highquality, imperial era mortars. Concrete walls are faced with refined Tufo Lionato opus reticulatum and tufelli, and opus testaceum of fired, greyish-yellow brick. The exploratory concrete masonry, which includes some of the earliest examples of brick facings and strätlingite cements in Rome, and the integration of these materials in complex architectural elements and internal spaces, reflect the highly skilled workmanship, rigorous work-site management and technical supervision of Roman builders trained in republican era methods and materials.
    Description: Published
    Description: 728–742
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: VOLCANIC TUFF MASONRY ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 13
    Publication Date: 2021-06-07
    Description: We present a high-resolution palaeomagnetic and rock magnetic study of two cores, MS06 and MS06-SW (6.7 and 1.1 m long, respectively), collected at 72 m below sea level in the Augusta Bay shelf (Eastern Sicily, Ionian Sea, Italy) about 2.3 kmfrom the coastline. Geophysical surveying carried out in the sampling area highlighted the presence of a homogeneous sedimentary sequence that most likely was deposited after the Last Glacial Maximum and was not affected by anthropogenic disturbances. The two cores penetrated a monotonous mud sedimentary sequence, interrupted at ∼3 m depth by a 3–4-cm-thick volcanic sandy layer that is correlated with the tephra fallout deposit produced by the 122 BC plinian eruption of Mt Etna. This tephra, along with radiocarbon dating of nine marine shells and with radioactive tracers for the uppermost 0.3 m (210Pb and 137Cs), provide the chronological constraints for the stratigraphic sequence that resulted younger than 4500 yr BP. Palaeomagnetic and rock magnetic data show that the sample sequence is magnetically homogeneous. A single peak of high magnetic mineral concentration is present and corresponds to the volcanic sandy layer. Palaeomagnetic data allowed the identification of a well-defined characteristic remanent magnetization that provides a high-resolution record of palaeosecular variation (PSV) at the sampling site. The reconstructed PSV curve is in good agreement with the available regional reference PSV curves and with the prediction from recent PSV modelling for Europe. The palaeomagnetic data obtained in this study on the one hand support and refine the age model for the cores, derived from other independent constraints, and on the other hand provide an original high-resolution PSV curve that can serve as a reference for the central Mediterranean over the last 4 ka.
    Description: Published
    Description: 191 - 202
    Description: 2.2. Laboratorio di paleomagnetismo
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Palaeointensity ; Palaeomagnetic secular variation ; Marine magnetics and palaeomagnetics ; Europe ; 04. Solid Earth::04.05. Geomagnetism::04.05.02. Geomagnetic field variations and reversals ; 04. Solid Earth::04.05. Geomagnetism::04.05.06. Paleomagnetism
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 14
    Publication Date: 2020-09-07
    Description: This study presents and discusses horizontal and vertical geodetic velocities for a low strain rate region of the south Alpine thrust front in northeastern Italy obtained by integrating GPS, interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) and leveling data. The area is characterized by the presence of subparallel, south-verging thrusts whose seismogenic potential is still poorly known. Horizontal GPS velocities show that this sector of the eastern Southern Alps is undergoing ∼1 mm a−1 of NW–SE shortening associated with the Adria–Eurasia plate convergence, but the horizontal GPS velocity gradient across the mountain front provides limited constraints on the geometry and slip rate of the several subparallel thrusts. In terms of vertical velocities, the three geodetic methods provide consistent results showing a positive velocity gradient, of ∼ 1.5 mm a−1, across the mountain front, which can hardly be explained solely by isostatic processes. We developed an interseismic dislocation model whose geometry is constrained by available subsurface geological reconstructions and instrumental seismicity. While a fraction of the measured uplift can be attributed to glacial and erosional isostatic processes, our results suggest that interseismic strain accumulation at the Montello and the Bassano–Valdobbiadene thrusts it significantly contributing to the measured uplift. The seismogenic potential of the Montello thrust turns out to be smaller than that of the Bassano–Valdobbiadene fault, whose estimated parameters (locking depth equals 9.1 km and slip rate equals 2.1 mm a−1) indicate a structure capable of potentially generating a Mw〉6.5 earthquake. These results demonstrate the importance of precise vertical ground velocity data for modeling interseismic strain accumulation in slowly deforming regions where seismological and geomorphological evidence of active tectonics is often scarce or not conclusive.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1681–1698
    Description: 2T. Deformazione crostale attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Southern Alps ; Vertical Velocities ; GPS and InSAR integration ; Interseismic Deformation ; Dislocation Model ; Seismic Potential ; 04.03. Geodesy ; 04.07. Tectonophysics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 15
    Publication Date: 2020-12-14
    Description: The knowledge of the local soil structure is important for the assessment of seismic hazards. A widespread, but time-consuming technique to retrieve the parameters of the local underground is the drilling of boreholes. Another way to obtain the shear wave velocity profile at a given location is the inversion of surface wave dispersion curves. To ensure a good resolution for both superficial and deeper layers, the used dispersion curves need to cover a wide frequency range. This wide frequency range can be obtained using several arrays of seismic sensors or a single array comprising a large number of sensors. Consequently, these measurements are time-consuming. A simpler alternative is provided by the use of the ellipticity of Rayleigh waves. The frequency dependence of the ellipticity is tightly linked to the shear wave velocity profile. Furthermore, it can be measured using a single seismic sensor. As soil structures obtained by scaling of a given model exhibit the same ellipticity curve, any inversion of the ellipticity curve alone will be ambiguous. Therefore, additional measurements which fix the absolute value of the shear wave velocity profile at some points have to be included in the inversion process. Small-scale spatial autocorrelation measurements or MASW measurements can provide the needed data. Using a theoretical soil structure, we show which parts of the ellipticity curve have to be included in the inversion process to get a reliable result and which parts can be omitted. Furthermore, the use of autocorrelation or high-frequency dispersion curves will be highlighted. The resulting guidelines for inversions including ellipticity data are then applied to real data measurements collected at 14 different sites during the European NERIES project. It is found that the results are in good agreement with dispersion curve measurements. Furthermore, the method can help in identifying the mode of Rayleigh waves in dispersion curve measurements.
    Description: Published
    Description: 207-229
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Inverse theory Surface waves and free oscillations Site effects Computational seismology Wave propagation ; 04. Solid Earth::04.02. Exploration geophysics::04.02.06. Seismic methods
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 16
    Publication Date: 2020-12-15
    Description: Seismogram envelopes recorded at Campi Flegrei caldera show diffusive characteristics as well as steep amplitude increases in the intermediate and late coda, which can be related to the presence of a non-uniformly scattering medium. In this paper, we first show the results of a simulation with a statistical model considering anisotropic scattering interactions, in order to match coda-envelope duration and shape.We consider as realistic parameters for a volcanic caldera the presence of large square root velocity fluctuations (10 per cent) and two typical correlation lengths for such an heterogeneous crust, a = 0.1 and 1 km. Then, we propose the inclusion of a diffusive boundary condition in the stochastic description of multiple scattering, in order to model intermediate and late coda intensities, and particularly the sharp intensity peaks at some stations in the caldera. Finally, we show that a reliable 2-D synthetic model of the envelopes produced by earthquakes vertically sampling a small region can be obtained including a single drastic change of the scattering properties of the volcano, that is, a caldera rim of radius 3 km, and sections varying between 2 and 3 km. These boundary conditions are diffusive, which signifies that the rim must have more scattering potential than the rest of the medium, with its diffusivity 2–3 orders of magnitude lower than the one of the background medium, so that the secondary sources on its interface(s) could enhance coda intensities. We achieve a good first-order model of high-frequency (18 Hz) envelope broadening adding to the Monte Carlo solution for the incident flux the secondary source effects produced by a closed annular boundary, designed on the caldera rim signature at 1.5 km depth. At lower frequencies (3 Hz) the annular boundary controls the intermediate and late coda envelope behaviour, in a way similar to an extended diffusive source. In our interpretation, the anomalous intensities observed at several stations and predicted by the final Monte Carlo solutions are mainly due to the diffusive transmission reflection from a scattering object of increased scattering power, and are controlled by its varying thickness.
    Description: This work was carried out under the HPC-Europa2 project (project number: 228398) with the support of the European Commission Capacities Area-Research Infrastructures Initiative. We thank the whole staff at EPCC (Edinburgh Parallel Computing Centre) in Edinburgh and particularly Dr. Adam Carter for their help in both developing and parallelizing the code. The challenging comments and suggestions of the editor and two anonymous reviewers helped both in focusing the aim and in overcoming the strong limits of a previous version of the paper.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1102–1119
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Numerical solutions; ; Seismic anisotropy; ; Seismic attenuation ; Seismic tomography ; Wave scattering and diffraction ; Calderas ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.09. Waves and wave analysis
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  • 17
    Publication Date: 2021-04-07
    Description: Stable isotopes were measured in the carbonate and organic matter of palaeosols in the Somma–Vesuvius area, southern Italy in order to test whether they are suitable proxy records for climatic and ecological changes in this area during the past 18000 yr. The ages of the soils span from ca. 18 to ca. 3 kyr BP. Surprisingly, the Last Glacial to Holocene climate transition was not accompanied by significant change in d18O of pedogenic carbonate. This could be explained by changes in evaporation rate and in isotope fractionation between water and precipitated carbonate with temperature, which counterbalanced the expected change in isotope composition of meteoric water. Because of the rise in temperature and humidity and the progressive increase in tree cover during the Holocene, the Holocene soil carbonates closely reflect the isotopic composition of meteoric water. A cooling of about 2°C after the Avellino eruption (3.8 ka) accounts for a sudden decrease of about 1‰ in d18O of pedogenic carbonate recorded after this eruption. The d13C values of organic matter and pedogenic carbonate covary, indicating an effective isotope equilibrium between the organic matter, as the source of CO2, and the pedogenic carbonate. Carbon isotopes suggest prevailing C3 vegetation and negligible mixing with volcanogenic or atmospheric CO2.
    Description: Published
    Description: 813-824
    Description: 1V. Storia e struttura dei sistemi vulcanici
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: stable isotope ; palaeosols ; Somma–Vesuvius ; palaeoclimate ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.99. General or miscellaneous
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  • 18
    Publication Date: 2021-06-22
    Description: Operative seismic aftershock risk forecasting can be particularly useful for rapid decision-making in the presence of an ongoing sequence. In such a context, limit state first-excursion probabilities (risk) for the forecasting interval (a day) can represent the potential for progressive state of damage in a structure. This work lays out a performance-based framework for adaptive aftershock risk assessment in the immediate post-mainshock environment. A time-dependent structural performance variable is adopted in order to measure the cumulative damage in a structure. A set of event-dependent fragility curves as a function of the first-mode spectral acceleration for a prescribed limit state is calculated by employing back-to-back non- linear dynamic analyses. An epidemic-type aftershock sequence model is employed for estimating the spatio-temporal evolution of aftershocks. The event-dependent fragility curves for a given limit state are then integrated together with the probability distribution of aftershock spectral acceleration based on the epidemic-type aftershock sequence aftershock hazard. The daily probability of limit state first-excursion is finally calculated as a weighted combination of the sequence of limit state probabilities conditioned on the num- ber of aftershocks. As a numerical example, daily aftershock risk is calculated for the L’Aquila 2009 aftershock sequence (central Italy). A representative three-story reinforced concrete frame with infill panels, which has cyclic strength and stiffness degradation, is used in order to evaluate the progressive damage. It is observed that the proposed framework leads to a sound forecasting of limit state first-excursion in the structure for two limit states of significant damage and near collapse. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2179–2197
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: aftershock ; time-dependent reliability ; seismic risk ; etas modeling ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
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  • 19
    Publication Date: 2021-06-07
    Description: The diagnosis of the conservation state of monumental structures from constraints to the spatial distribution of their physical properties on shallow and inner materials represents one of the key objectives in the application of non-invasive techniques. In situ, CRP and 3D ultrasonic tomography can provide an effective coverage of stone materials in space and time. The intrinsic characteristics of the materials that make up a monumental structure and affect the two properties (i.e., reflectivity, longitudinal velocity) through the above methods substantially differ. Consequently, the content of their information is mainly complementary rather than redundant. In this study we present the integrated application of different non-destructive techniques i.e., Close Range Photogrammetry (CRP), and low frequency (24 KHz) ultrasonic tomography complemented by petrographycal analysis based essentially on Optical Microscopy (OM). This integrated methodology has been applied to a Carrara marble column of the Basilica of San Saturnino, in Byzantine-Proto-Romanesque style, which is part of the Paleo Christian complex of the V-VI century. This complex also includes the adjacent Christian necropolis in the square of San Cosimo in the city of Cagliari, Sardinia, Italy. The column under study is made of bare material dating back probably to the first century A.D., it was subjected to various traumas due to disassembly and transport to the site, including damage caused by the close blast of a WWII fragmentation bomb. High resolution 3D modelling of the studied artifact was computed starting from the integration of proximal sensing techniques such as CRP based on Structure from Motion (SfM), with which information about the geometrical anomalies and reflectivity of the investigated marble column surface was obtained. On the other hand, the inner parts of the studied body were successfully inspected in a non-invasive way by computing the velocity pattern of the ultrasonic signal through the investigated materials using 3D ultrasonic tomography. This technique gives information on the elastic properties of the material related with mechanical properties and a number of factors, such as presence of fractures, voids, and flaws. Extracting information on such factors from the elastic wave velocity using 3D tomography provides a non-invasive approach to analyse the property changes of the inner material of the ancient column. The integrated application of in situ CRP and ultrasonic techniques provides a full 3D high resolution model of the investigated artifact. This model enhanced by the knowledge of the petrographic characteristics of the materials, improves the diagnostic process and affords reliable information on the state of conservation of the materials used in the construction processes of the studied monumental structure. The integrated use of the non-destructive techniques described above also provides suitable data for a possible restoration and future preservation.
    Description: Copernicus
    Description: Published
    Description: On line
    Description: 5T. Sismologia, geofisica e geologia per l'ingegneria sismica
    Keywords: Cultural Heritage ; Monumental Structures ; Non-Destructive Testing ; Close Range Photogrammetry ; 3D Ultrasonic Tomography ; High resolution 3D modelling ; Restoration ; Conservation ; 05.04. Instrumentation and techniques of general interest
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 20
    Publication Date: 2014-10-14
    Description: The composition and abundance of algal pigments provide information on characteristics of a phytoplankton community in respect to its photoacclimation, overall biomass, and taxonomic composition. Particularly, these pigments play a major role in photoprotection and in the light-driven part of photosynthesis. Most phytoplankton pigments can be measured by High Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC) techniques to filtered water samples. This method, like others when water samples have to be analysed in the laboratory, is time consuming and therefore only a limited number of data points can be obtained. In order to receive information on phytoplankton pigment composition with a higher temporal and spatial resolution, we have developed a method to assess pigment concentrations from continuous optical measurements. The method applies an Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis to remote sensing reflectance data derived from ship-based hyper-spectral underwater radiometric and from multispectral satellite data (using the MERIS Polymer product developed by Steinmetz et al., 2011) measured in the Eastern Tropical Atlantic. Subsequently we developed statistically linear models with measured (collocated) pigment concentrations as the response variable and EOF loadings as predictor variables. The model results, show that surface concentrations of a suite of pigments and pigment groups can be well predicted from the ship-based reflectance measurements, even when only a multi-spectral resolution is chosen (i.e. eight bands similar to those used by MERIS). Based on the MERIS reflectance data, concentrations of total and monovinyl chlorophyll a and the groups of photoprotective and photosynthetic carotenoids can be predicted with high quality. The fitted statistical model constructed on the satellite reflectance data as input was applied to one month of MERIS Polymer data to predict the concentration of those pigment groups for the whole Eastern Tropical Atlantic area. Bootstrapping explorations of cross-validation error indicate that the method can produce reliable predictions with relatively small data sets (e.g., 〈 50 collocated values of reflectance and pigment concentration). The method allows for the derivation of time series from continuous reflectance data of various pigment groups at various regions, which can be used to study variability and change of phytoplankton composition and photo-physiology.
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  • 21
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    Copernicus
    In:  EPIC3Earth System Science Data Discussions https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2019-66, Copernicus, pp. 1-39
    Publication Date: 2019-05-02
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 22
    Publication Date: 2017-08-30
    Description: Predicting future thaw slump activity requires a sound understanding of the atmospheric drivers and geomorphic controls on mass wasting across a range of time scales. On sub-seasonal time scales, sparse measurements indicate that mass wasting at active slumps is often limited by the energy available for melting ground ice, but other factors such as rainfall or the formation of an insulating veneer may also be relevant. To study the sub-seasonal drivers, we derive topographic changes from single-pass radar interferometric data acquired by the TanDEM-X satellite (12 m resolution). The high vertical precision (around 30 cm), frequent observations (11 days) and large coverage (5000 km2) allow us to track volume losses as drivers such as the available energy change during summer in two study regions. We find that thaw slumps in the Tuktoyaktuk coastlands, Canada, are not energy limited in June, as they undergo limited mass wasting (height loss of around 0 cm/day) despite the ample available energy, indicating the widespread presence of an insulating snow or debris veneer. Later in summer, height losses generally increase (around 3 cm/day), but they do so in distinct ways. For many slumps, mass wasting tracks the available energy, a temporal pattern that is also observed at coastal yedoma cliffs on the Bykovsky Peninsula, Russia. However, the other two common temporal trajectories are asynchronous with the available energy, as they track strong precipitation events or show a sudden speed-up in late August, respectively. The observed temporal patterns are poorly related to slump characteristics like the slump area. The contrasting temporal behaviour of nearby thaw slumps highlights the importance of complex local and temporally varying controls on mass wasting.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 23
    Publication Date: 2017-11-06
    Description: A suite of oxygenated volatile organic compounds (OVOCs – acetaldehyde, acetone, propanal, butanal and butanone) were measured concurrently in the surface water and atmosphere of the South China Sea and Sulu Sea in November 2011. A strong correlation was observed between all OVOC concentrations in the surface seawater along the entire cruise track, except for acetaldehyde, suggesting similar sources and sinks in the surface ocean. Additionally, several phytoplankton groups, such as haptophytes or pelagophytes, were also correlated to all OVOCs indicating that phytoplankton may be an important source for marine OVOCs in the South China and Sulu Seas. Humic and protein like fluorescent dissolved organic matter (FDOM) components seemed to be additional precursors for butanone and acetaldehyde. The atmospheric OVOC mixing ratios were relative high compared with literature values, suggesting the coastal region of North Borneo as a local hot spot for atmospheric OVOCs. The flux of atmospheric OVOCs was largely into the ocean for all 5 gases, with a few important exceptions near the coast of Borneo. The calculated amount of OVOCs entrained into the ocean seemed to be an important source of OVOCs to the surface ocean. When the fluxes were out of the ocean, marine OVOCs were found to be enough to control the local measured OVOC distribution in the atmosphere. Based on our model calculations, at least 0.4 ppb of marine derived acetone and butanone can reach the upper troposphere, where they may have an important influence on hydrogen oxide radical formation over the western Pacific Ocean.
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  • 24
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    Copernicus
    In:  EPIC3Geoscientific Model Development, Copernicus, 11, pp. 753-769
    Publication Date: 2018-03-28
    Description: The Extrapolar SWIFT model is a fast ozone chemistry scheme for interactive calculation of the extrapolar stratospheric ozone layer in coupled general circulation models (GCMs). In contrast to the widely used prescribed ozone, the SWIFT ozone layer interacts with the model dynamics and can respond to atmospheric variability or climatological trends. The Extrapolar SWIFT model employs a repro-modelling approach, where algebraic functions are used to approximate the numerical output of a full stratospheric chemistry and transport model (ATLAS). The full model solves a coupled chemical differential equations system with 55 initial and boundary conditions (mixing ratio of various chemical species and atmospheric parameters). Hence the rate of change of ozone over 24  h is a function of 55 variables. Using covariances between these variables, we can find linear combinations in order to reduce the parameter space to the following nine basic variables: latitude, pressure altitude, temperature, local ozone column, mixing ratio of ozone and of the ozone depleting families (Cly, Bry, NOy and HOy). We will show that these 9 variables are sufficient to characterize the rate of change of ozone. An automated procedure fits a polynomial function of fourth degree to the rate of change of ozone obtained from several simulations with the ATLAS model. One polynomial function is determined per month which yields the rate of change of ozone over 24 h. A key aspect for the robustness of the Extrapolar SWIFT model is to include a wide range of stratospheric variability in the numerical output of the ATLAS model, also covering atmospheric states that will occur in a future climate (e.g. temperature and meridional circulation changes or reduction of stratospheric chlorine loading). For validation purposes, the Extrapolar SWIFT model has been integrated into the ATLAS model replacing the full stratospheric chemistry scheme. Simulations with SWIFT in ATLAS have proven that the systematic error is small and does not accumulate during the course of a simulation. In the context of a 10 year simulation, the ozone layer, simulated by SWIFT, shows a stable annual cycle, with inter-annual variations comparable to the ATLAS model. The application of Extrapolar SWIFT requires the evaluation of polynomial functions with 30–100 terms. Nowadays, computers can calculate such polynomial functions at thousands of model grid points in seconds. SWIFT provides the desired numerical efficiency and computes the ozone layer 104 times faster than the chemistry scheme in the ATLAS CTM.
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  • 25
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    Copernicus
    In:  EPIC3The Cryosphere, Copernicus, 11(5), pp. 2383-2391
    Publication Date: 2017-10-24
    Description: Ice retreat in the eastern Eurasian Arctic is a consequence of atmospheric and oceanic processes and regional feedback mechanisms acting on the ice cover, both in winter and summer. A correct representation of these processes in numerical models is important, since it will improve predictions of sea ice anomalies along the Northeast Passage and beyond. In this study, we highlight the importance of winter ice dynamics for local summer sea ice anomalies in thickness, volume and extent. By means of airborne sea ice thickness surveys made over pack ice areas in the south-eastern Laptev Sea, we show that years of offshore-directed sea ice transport have a thinning effect on the late-winter sea ice cover. To confirm the preconditioning effect of enhanced offshore advection in late winter on the summer sea ice cover, we perform a sensitivity study using a numerical model. Results verify that the preconditioning effect plays a bigger role for the regional ice extent. Furthermore, they indicate an increase in volume export from the Laptev Sea as a consequence of enhanced offshore advection, which has far-reaching consequences for the entire Arctic sea ice mass balance. Moreover we show that ice dynamics in winter not only preconditions local summer ice extent, but also accelerate fast-ice decay.
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  • 26
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    Copernicus
    In:  EPIC3European Geosciences Union EGU General Assembly, Vienna, Austria, 2018-04-08-2018-04-13Copernicus
    Publication Date: 2018-06-18
    Description: We use a comprehensive suite of partially laminated high-resolution sediment cores from the Bering Sea, covering a depth transect from 1100 m to 2700 m to study deglacial surface ocean warming patterns, associated changes in biological productivity, oxygen minimum zone dynamics and continent-ocean links through Yukon river runoff. We apply a combination of planktic and benthic isotopes, x-ray fluorescence (XRF)-derived ele- mental ratios and a multi-proxy assessment of changes in upper ocean temperatures. Severe oxygen depletions occurred during the Bølling/Allerød (B/A) and early Holocene, which is in accordance with other locations in the North Pacific, especially the Alaska margin. Detailed analysis of the timing of lamination occurrence between the different sediment cores revealed that the onset of severe anoxia at the beginning of the B/A and early Holocene is a near-synchronous event, while the disappearance of laminations is a diachronic process. The deglacial Oxygen Minimum Zone(OMZ) strengthening is mainly driven by increased export production, visible in XRF-derived elemental ratios, and corresponding high accumulation rates of biogenic components. The export production in turn is a response to rising sea surface temperatures, decreased sea ice cover and increased thermal stratification, while a major nutrient source was the eastern continental shelf, which was flooded during the deglacial global sea level rise. It is discussed controversially whether oxygenation variations in the deglacial subarctic Pacific were coupled to changes in mid-depth water chemistry, or rather a response to physical processes like deep-intermediate ocean or mixed layer warming, or stratification changes. However, knowledge of the driving forcing mechanism for OMZ strengthening is of particular importance, as these are tightly coupled to the regional marine carbon budget, e.g. via the strength and efficiency of the biological pump. Here, our laminated sediments provided the opportunity to study ocean dynamics in exceptional detail, possible on decadal to annual timescales. Due to the correlation patterns of our records to the NGRIP oxygen isotope record through layer counts we presume that (i) the presence of laminations is tightly coupled to submillennial, short-term warm phases, especially during the Bølling-Allerød (B/A), (ii) that the laminations represent annual layered sediments (varves). The latter point in conjunction with our geochemical proxies strongly supports an atmospheric teleconnection between SE Asia, the North Atlantic and the North Pacific, with observed changes in mid-depth ocean dynamics occurring on fast, nearly decadal timescales. Thus, the Bering Sea OMZ is a highly sensitive system reacting almost instantaneously to small temperature changes and therefore has the potential to influence the global carbon budget on short timescales, in particular during episodes of rapidly warming climate.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 27
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    Wiley-Blackwell
    In:  EPIC3Harmful Algal Blooms: A Compendium Desk Reference, Wiley-Blackwell, 12 p., pp. 563-574, ISBN: 978-1-118-99465-8
    Publication Date: 2018-06-28
    Description: The genus Alexandrium (Halim) is perhaps the most intensively studied among toxic marine dinoflagellates. This is largely attributable to the devastating consequences of toxigenic blooms of this genus, with human poisonings from contaminated seafood, primarily from shellfish and more rarely from finfish; socio–economic losses to the aquaculture and fisheries industries; marine faunal mortalities; and food web disruptions common in coastal waters throughout the world. Members of this genus are globally distributed from the Arctic to the tropics, and in both hemispheres from sub–polar through temperate to sub–tropical to tropicalwaters. At least four distinct groups of marine phycotoxins are associated with various Alexandrium species, along with poorly characterized bioactive compounds (allelochemicals) that may affect species interactions among the plankton. According to the most recent iteration of the IOC–UNESCO reference list of toxic microalgae, there are now more than 30 recognized morphological species of Alexandrium, posing a daunting challenge for risk assessment and accurate identification in toxic phytoplankton monitoring programs.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 28
    Publication Date: 2020-03-05
    Description: The aim of the presented study was to investigate the impact on the radiation budget of a biomass-burning plume, transported from Alaska to the High Arctic region of Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard, in early July 2015. Since the mean aerosol optical depth increased by the factor of 10 above the average summer background values, this large aerosol load event is considered particularly exceptional in the last 25 years. In situ data with hygroscopic growth equations, as well as remote sensing measurements as inputs to radiative transfer models, were used, in order to estimate biases associated with (i) hygroscopicity, (ii) variability of single-scattering albedo profiles, and (iii) plane-parallel closure of the modelled atmosphere. A chemical weather model with satellite-derived biomass-burning emissions was applied to interpret the transport and transformation pathways. The provided MODTRAN radiative transfer model (RTM) simulations for the smoke event (14:00 9 July–11:30 11 July) resulted in a mean aerosol direct radiative forcing at the levels of −78.9 and −47.0 W m ^-2 at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere, respectively, for the mean value of aerosol optical depth equal to 0.64 at 550 nm. This corresponded to the average clear-sky direct radiative forcing of −43.3 W/m ^2, estimated by radiometer and model simulations at the surface. Ultimately, uncertainty associated with the plane-parallel atmosphere approximation altered results by about 2 W m^−2. Furthermore, model-derived aerosol direct radiative forcing efficiency reached on average −126 W m^−2/τ550 and −71 W^m−2/τ550 at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere, respectively. The heating rate, estimated at up to 1.8 K day^−1 inside the biomass-burning plume, implied vertical mixing with turbulent kinetic energy of 0.3 m^2s^−2
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  • 29
    Publication Date: 2020-01-21
    Description: A new 21.3m firn core was drilled in 2015 at a coastal Antarctic high-accumulation site in Adélie Land (66.78◦ S; 139.56◦ E, 602 m a.s.l.), named Terre Adélie 192A (TA192A). The mean isotopic values (−19.3 ‰ ± 3.1 ‰ for δ18O and 5.4 ‰±2.2 ‰ for deuterium excess) are consistent with other coastal Antarctic values. No significant isotope–temperature relationship can be evidenced at any timescale. This rules out a simple interpretation in terms of local temperature. An observed asymmetry in the δ18O seasonal cycle may be explained by the precipitation of air masses coming from the eastern and western sectors in autumn and winter, recorded in the d-excess signal showing outstanding values in austral spring versus autumn. Significant positive trends are observed in the annual d-excess record and local sea ice extent (135–145◦ E) over the period 1998–2014. However, process studies focusing on resulting isotopic compositions and particularly the deuterium excess–δ18O relationship, evidenced as a potential fingerprint of moisture origins, as well as the collection of more isotopic measurements in Adélie Land are needed for an accurate interpretation of our signals.
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  • 30
    Publication Date: 2019-08-12
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  • 31
    Publication Date: 2020-03-01
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  • 32
    Publication Date: 2020-08-10
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  • 33
    Publication Date: 2021-02-16
    Description: A range of future climate scenarios are projected for high atmospheric CO2 concentrations, given uncertainties over future human actions as well as potential environmental and climatic feedbacks. The geological record offers an opportunity to understand climate system response to a range of forcings and feedbacks which operate over multiple temporal and spatial scales. Here, we examine a single interglacial during the late Pliocene (KM5c, ca. 3.205±0.01 Ma) when atmospheric CO2 exceeded pre-industrial concentrations, but were similar to today and to the lowest emission scenarios for this century. As orbital forcing and continental configurations were almost identical to today, we are able to focus on equilibrium climate system response to modern and near-future CO2. Using proxy data from 32 sites, we demonstrate that global mean sea-surface temperatures were warmer than pre-industrial values, by ∼2.3°C for the combined proxy data (foraminifera Mg∕Ca and alkenones), or by ∼3.2–3.4°C (alkenones only). Compared to the pre-industrial period, reduced meridional gradients and enhanced warming in the North Atlantic are consistently reconstructed. There is broad agreement between data and models at the global scale, with regional differences reflecting ocean circulation and/or proxy signals. An uneven distribution of proxy data in time and space does, however, add uncertainty to our anomaly calculations. The reconstructed global mean sea-surface temperature anomaly for KM5c is warmer than all but three of the PlioMIP2 model outputs, and the reconstructed North Atlantic data tend to align with the warmest KM5c model values. Our results demonstrate that even under low-CO2 emission scenarios, surface ocean warming may be expected to exceed model projections and will be accentuated in the higher latitudes.
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  • 34
    Publication Date: 2020-09-28
    Description: Reconstructions of global hydroclimate during the Common Era (CE; the past ∼2000 years) are important for providing context for current and future global environmental change. Stable isotope ratios in water are quantitative indicators of hydroclimate on regional to global scales, and these signals are encoded in a wide range of natural geologic archives. Here we present the Iso2k database, a global compilation of previously published datasets from a variety of natural archives that record the stable oxygen (δ18O) or hydrogen (δ2H) isotopic compositions of environmental waters, which reflect hydroclimate changes over the CE. The Iso2k database contains 759 isotope records from the terrestrial and marine realms, including glacier and ground ice (210); speleothems (68); corals, sclerosponges, and mollusks (143); wood (81); lake sediments and other terrestrial sediments (e.g., loess) (158); and marine sediments (99). Individual datasets have temporal resolutions ranging from sub-annual to centennial and include chronological data where available. A fundamental feature of the database is its comprehensive metadata, which will assist both experts and nonexperts in the interpretation of each record and in data synthesis. Key metadata fields have standardized vocabularies to facilitate comparisons across diverse archives and with climate-model-simulated fields. This is the first global-scale collection of water isotope proxy records from multiple types of geological and biological archives. It is suitable for evaluating hydroclimate processes through time and space using large-scale synthesis, model–data intercomparison and (paleo)data assimilation. The Iso2k database is available for download at https://doi.org/10.25921/57j8-vs18 (Konecky and McKay, 2020) and is also accessible via the NOAA/WDS Paleo Data landing page: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/29593 (last access: 30 July 2020).
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  • 35
    Publication Date: 2021-07-23
    Description: Originating from the boreal forest and often transported over large distances, driftwood characterises many Arctic coastlines. Here we present a combined assessment of radiocarbon (14C) and dendrochronological (ring width) age estimates of driftwood samples to constrain the progradation of two Holocene beach-ridge systems near the Lena Delta in the Siberian Arctic (Laptev Sea). Our data show that the 14C ages obtained on syndepositional driftwood from beach deposits yield surprisingly coherent chronologies for the coastal evolution of the field sites. The dendrochronological analysis of wood from modern driftlines revealed the origin and recent delivery of the wood from the Lena River catchments. This finding suggests that the duration transport lies within the uncertainty of state-of-the-art 14C dating and thus substantiates the validity of age indication obtained from driftwood. This observation will help to better understand changes in similar coastal environments, and to improve our knowledge about the response of coastal systems to past climate and sea-level changes.
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  • 36
    Publication Date: 2020-11-16
    Description: The Northeast Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS) extends around 600 km upstream from the coast to its onset near the ice divide in interior Greenland. Several maps of surface velocity and topography of interior Greenland exist, but their accuracy is not well constrained by in situ observations. Here we present the results from a GPS mapping of surface velocity in an area located approximately 150 km from the ice divide near the East Greenland Ice-core Project (EastGRIP) deep-drilling site. A GPS strain net consisting of 63 poles was established and observed over the years 2015–2019. The strain net covers an area of 35 km by 40 km, including both shear margins. The ice flows with a uniform surface speed of approximately 55 m a^−1 within a central flow band with longitudinal and transverse strain rates on the order of 10−4 a^−1 and increasing by an order of magnitude in the shear margins. We compare the GPS results to the Arctic Digital Elevation Model and a list of satellite-derived surface velocity products in order to evaluate these products. For each velocity product, we determine the bias in and precision of the velocity compared to the GPS observations, as well as the smoothing of the velocity products needed to obtain optimal precision. The best products have a bias and a precision of ∼0.5 m a^−1. We combine the GPS results with satellite-derived products and show that organized patterns in flow and topography emerge in NEGIS when the surface velocity exceeds approximately 55 m a−1 and are related to bedrock topography.
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  • 37
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    Copernicus
    In:  EPIC3Climate of the Past, Copernicus, 16(6), pp. 2275-2323, ISSN: 1814-9332
    Publication Date: 2021-07-01
    Description: We present the Alfred Wegener Institute's contribution to the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2) wherein we employ the Community Earth System Models (COSMOS) that include a dynamic vegetation scheme. This work builds on our contribution to Phase 1 of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP1) wherein we employed the same model without dynamic vegetation. Our input to the PlioMIP2 special issue of Climate of the Past is twofold. In an accompanying paper we compare results derived with COSMOS in the framework of PlioMIP2 and PlioMIP1. With this paper we present details of our contribution with COSMOS to PlioMIP2. We provide a description of the model and of methods employed to transfer reconstructed mid-Pliocene geography, as provided by the Pliocene Reconstruction and Synoptic Mapping Initiative Phase 4 (PRISM4), to model boundary conditions. We describe the spin-up procedure for creating the COSMOS PlioMIP2 simulation ensemble and present large-scale climate patterns of the COSMOS PlioMIP2 mid-Pliocene core simulation. Furthermore, we quantify the contribution of individual components of PRISM4 boundary conditions to characteristics of simulated mid-Pliocene climate and discuss implications for anthropogenic warming. When exposed to PRISM4 boundary conditions, COSMOS provides insight into a mid-Pliocene climate that is characterised by increased rainfall (+0.17 mm d−1) and elevated surface temperature (+3.37 ∘C) in comparison to the pre-industrial (PI). About two-thirds of the mid-Pliocene core temperature anomaly can be directly attributed to carbon dioxide that is elevated with respect to PI. The contribution of topography and ice sheets to mid-Pliocene warmth is much smaller in contrast – about one-quarter and one-eighth, respectively, and nonlinearities are negligible. The simulated mid-Pliocene climate comprises pronounced polar amplification, a reduced meridional temperature gradient, a northwards-shifted tropical rain belt, an Arctic Ocean that is nearly free of sea ice during boreal summer, and muted seasonality at Northern Hemisphere high latitudes. Simulated mid-Pliocene precipitation patterns are defined by both carbon dioxide and PRISM4 paleogeography. Our COSMOS simulations confirm long-standing characteristics of the mid-Pliocene Earth system, among these increased meridional volume transport in the Atlantic Ocean, an extended and intensified equatorial warm pool, and pronounced poleward expansion of vegetation cover. By means of a comparison of our results to a reconstruction of the sea surface temperature (SST) of the mid-Pliocene we find that COSMOS reproduces reconstructed SST best if exposed to a carbon dioxide concentration of 400 ppmv. In the Atlantic to Arctic Ocean the simulated mid-Pliocene core climate state is too cold in comparison to the SST reconstruction. The discord can be mitigated to some extent by increasing carbon dioxide that causes increased mismatch between the model and reconstruction in other regions.
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  • 38
    Publication Date: 2021-01-04
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  • 39
    Publication Date: 2021-07-05
    Description: Earth system and climate modelling involves the simulation of processes on a wide range of scales and within and across various compartments of the Earth system. In practice, component models are often developed independently by different research groups, adapted by others to their special interests and then combined using a dedicated coupling software. This procedure not only leads to a strongly growing number of available versions of model components and coupled setups but also to model- and high-performance computing (HPC)-system-dependent ways of obtaining, configuring, building and operating them. Therefore, implementing these Earth system models (ESMs) can be challenging and extremely time consuming, especially for less experienced modellers or scientists aiming to use different ESMs as in the case of intercomparison projects. To assist researchers and modellers by reducing avoidable complexity, we developed the ESM-Tools software, which provides a standard way for downloading, configuring, compiling, running and monitoring different models on a variety of HPC systems. It should be noted that ESM-Tools is not a coupling software itself but a workflow and infrastructure management tool to provide access to increase usability of already existing components and coupled setups. As coupled ESMs are technically the more challenging tasks, we will focus on coupled setups, always implying that stand-alone models can benefit in the same way. With ESM-Tools, the user is only required to provide a short script consisting of only the experiment-specific definitions, while the software executes all the phases of a simulation in the correct order. The software, which is well documented and easy to install and use, currently supports four ocean models, three atmosphere models, two biogeochemistry models, an ice sheet model, an isostatic adjustment model, a hydrology model and a land-surface model. Compared to previous versions, ESM-Tools has lately been entirely recoded in a high-level programming language (Python) and provides researchers with an even more user-friendly interface for Earth system modelling. ESM-Tools was developed within the framework of the Advanced Earth System Model Capacity project, supported by the Helmholtz Association.
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  • 40
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    Copernicus
    In:  EPIC3Climate of the Past, Copernicus, 16(4), pp. 1643-1665, ISSN: 1814-9332
    Publication Date: 2021-02-16
    Description: We compare results obtained from modeling the mid-Pliocene warm period using the Community Earth System Models (COSMOS, version: COSMOS-landveg r2413, 2009) with the two different modeling methodologies and sets of boundary conditions prescribed for the two phases of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP), tagged PlioMIP1 and PlioMIP2. Here, we bridge the gap between our contributions to PlioMIP1 (Stepanek and Lohmann, 2012) and PlioMIP2 (Stepanek et al., 2020). We highlight some of the effects that differences in the chosen mid-Pliocene model setup (PlioMIP2 vs. PlioMIP1) have on the climate state as derived with COSMOS, as this information will be valuable in the framework of the model–model and model–data comparison within PlioMIP2. We evaluate the model sensitivity to improved mid-Pliocene boundary conditions using PlioMIP's core mid-Pliocene experiments for PlioMIP1 and PlioMIP2 and present further simulations in which we test model sensitivity to variations in paleogeography, orbit, and the concentration of CO2. Firstly, we highlight major changes in boundary conditions from PlioMIP1 to PlioMIP2 and also the challenges recorded from the initial effort. The results derived from our simulations show that COSMOS simulates a mid-Pliocene climate state that is 0.29°C colder in PlioMIP2 if compared to PlioMIP1 (17.82°C in PlioMIP1, 17.53°C in PlioMIP2; values based on simulated surface skin temperature). On the one hand, high-latitude warming, which is supported by proxy evidence of the mid-Pliocene, is underestimated in simulations of both PlioMIP1 and PlioMIP2. On the other hand, spatial variations in surface air temperature (SAT), sea surface temperature (SST), and the distribution of sea ice suggest improvement of simulated SAT and SST in PlioMIP2 if employing the updated paleogeography. Our PlioMIP2 mid-Pliocene simulation produces warmer SSTs in the Arctic and North Atlantic Ocean than those derived from the respective PlioMIP1 climate state. The difference in prescribed CO2 accounts for 0.5°C of temperature difference in the Arctic, leading to an ice-free summer in the PlioMIP1 simulation, and a quasi ice-free summer in PlioMIP2. Beyond the official set of PlioMIP2 simulations, we present further simulations and analyses that sample the phase space of potential alternative orbital forcings that have acted during the Pliocene and may have impacted geological records. Employing orbital forcing, which differs from that proposed for PlioMIP2 (i.e., corresponding to pre-industrial conditions) but falls into the mid-Pliocene time period targeted in PlioMIP, leads to pronounced annual and seasonal temperature variations. Our result identifies the changes in mid-Pliocene paleogeography from PRISM3 to PRISM4 as the major driver of the mid-Pliocene warmth within PlioMIP and not the minor differences in forcings.
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  • 41
    Publication Date: 2020-09-21
    Description: Streams and rivers are important components of the carbon cycle as they transport and transform dissolved organic matter (DOM). Using high‐resolution Fourier‐transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry, we studied the spatial distribution of DOM at the molecular level at more than 100 sites across a stream network during summer and winter baseflow. We developed a model approximating the time DOM spent in the fluvial network, a key constraint on the biogeochemical processing of DOM. Discharge‐weighted travel time explained the compositional changes of DOM, which differed markedly in summer and winter. We attribute these seasonal differences to variation in source material, putatively reflecting the dynamics of freshly produced DOM in summer and DOM with an imprint of leaf litter in winter. Hydrological mixing was an important driver of the spatial dynamics of DOM. From the convergence rate of DOM compound intensities to the network‐wide average, we inferred the spatial distribution of sources within the catchment. Finally, we estimated network‐wide apparent mass transfer coefficients (vf app) of individual DOM compounds, which describe the vertical velocity at which DOM compounds are removed by biotic and abiotic processes. We identified the oxidative state of carbon as an important factor explaining vf app, which we consequently attribute to biological uptake of thermodynamically favorable DOM compounds. This work contributes to our understanding of the spatial processes, temporal constraints, and chemical properties of DOM that regulate the transformation and diagenesis of DOM at the fluvial network scale.
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  • 42
    Publication Date: 2021-07-01
    Description: Palaeoclimate simulations improve our understanding of the climate, inform us about the performance of climate models in a different climate scenario, and help to identify robust features of the climate system. Here, we analyse Arctic warming in an ensemble of 16 simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP), derived from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2). The PlioMIP2 ensemble simulates Arctic (60–90 °N) annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) increases of 3.7 to 11.6 °C compared to the pre-industrial period, with a multi-model mean (MMM) increase of 7.2 °C. The Arctic warming amplification ratio relative to global SAT anomalies in the ensemble ranges from 1.8 to 3.1 (MMM is 2.3). Sea ice extent anomalies range from −3.0 to −10.4×106 km2, with a MMM anomaly of −5.6×106 km2, which constitutes a decrease of 53 % compared to the pre-industrial period. The majority (11 out of 16) of models simulate summer sea-ice-free conditions (≤1×106 km2) in their mPWP simulation. The ensemble tends to underestimate SAT in the Arctic when compared to available reconstructions, although the degree of underestimation varies strongly between the simulations. The simulations with the highest Arctic SAT anomalies tend to match the proxy dataset in its current form better. The ensemble shows some agreement with reconstructions of sea ice, particularly with regard to seasonal sea ice. Large uncertainties limit the confidence that can be placed in the findings and the compatibility of the different proxy datasets. We show that while reducing uncertainties in the reconstructions could decrease the SAT data–model discord substantially, further improvements are likely to be found in enhanced boundary conditions or model physics. Lastly, we compare the Arctic warming in the mPWP to projections of future Arctic warming and find that the PlioMIP2 ensemble simulates greater Arctic amplification than CMIP5 future climate simulations and an increase instead of a decrease in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strength compared to pre-industrial period. The results highlight the importance of slow feedbacks in equilibrium climate simulations, and that caution must be taken when using simulations of the mPWP as an analogue for future climate change.
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  • 43
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    Copernicus
    In:  EPIC3The Cryosphere, Copernicus, 14(11), pp. 3843-3873, ISSN: 1994-0424
    Publication Date: 2020-11-11
    Description: Antarctic geothermal heat flow (GHF) affects the temperature of the ice sheet, determining its ability to slide and internally deform, as well as the behaviour of the continental crust. However, GHF remains poorly constrained, with few and sparse local, borehole-derived estimates and large discrepancies in the magnitude and distribution of existing continent-scale estimates from geophysical models. We review the methods to estimate GHF, discussing the strengths and limitations of each approach; compile borehole and probe-derived estimates from measured temperature profiles; and recommend the following future directions. (1) Obtain more borehole-derived estimates from the subglacial bedrock and englacial temperature profiles. (2) Estimate GHF from inverse glaciological modelling, constrained by evidence for basal melting and englacial temperatures (e.g. using microwave emissivity). (3) Revise geophysically derived GHF estimates using a combination of Curie depth, seismic, and thermal isostasy models. (4) Integrate in these geophysical approaches a more accurate model of the structure and distribution of heat production elements within the crust and considering heterogeneities in the underlying mantle. (5) Continue international interdisciplinary communication and data access.
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  • 44
    Publication Date: 2020-12-07
    Description: Northwestern Alaska has been highly affected by changing climatic patterns with new temperature and precipitation maxima over the recent years. In particular, the Baldwin and northern Seward peninsulas are characterized by an abundance of thermokarst lakes that are highly dynamic and prone to lake drainage like many other regions at the southern margins of continuous permafrost. We used Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and Planet CubeSat optical remote sensing data to analyze recently observed widespread lake drainage. We then used synoptic weather data, climate model outputs and lake ice growth simulations to analyze potential drivers and future pathways of lake drainage in this region. Following the warmest and wettest winter on record in 2017/2018, 192 lakes were identified as having completely or partially drained by early summer 2018, which exceeded the average drainage rate by a factor of ∼ 10 and doubled the rates of the previous extreme lake drainage years of 2005 and 2006. The combination of abundant rain- and snowfall and extremely warm mean annual air temperatures (MAATs), close to 0 ∘C, may have led to the destabilization of permafrost around the lake margins. Rapid snow melt and high amounts of excess meltwater further promoted rapid lateral breaching at lake shores and consequently sudden drainage of some of the largest lakes of the study region that have likely persisted for millennia. We hypothesize that permafrost destabilization and lake drainage will accelerate and become the dominant drivers of landscape change in this region. Recent MAATs are already within the range of the predictions by the University of Alaska Fairbanks' Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning (UAF SNAP) ensemble climate predictions in scenario RCP6.0 for 2100. With MAAT in 2019 just below 0 ∘C at the nearby Kotzebue, Alaska, climate station, permafrost aggradation in drained lake basins will become less likely after drainage, strongly decreasing the potential for freeze-locking carbon sequestered in lake sediments, signifying a prominent regime shift in ice-rich permafrost lowland regions.
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  • 45
    Publication Date: 2020-07-08
    Description: The ESA Earth Explorer CryoSat-2 was launched on 8 April 2010 to monitor the precise changes in the thickness of terrestrial ice sheets and marine floating ice. To do that, CryoSat orbits the planet at an altitude of around 720 km with a retrograde orbit inclination of 92∘ and a quasi repeat cycle of 369 d (30 d subcycle). To reach the mission goals, the CryoSat products have to meet the highest quality standards to date, achieved through continual improvements of the operational processing chains. The new CryoSat Ice Baseline-D, in operation since 27 May 2019, represents a major processor upgrade with respect to the previous Ice Baseline-C. Over land ice the new Baseline-D provides better results with respect to the previous baseline when comparing the data to a reference elevation model over the Austfonna ice cap region, improving the ascending and descending crossover statistics from 1.9 to 0.1 m. The improved processing of the star tracker measurements implemented in Baseline-D has led to a reduction in the standard deviation of the point-to-point comparison with the previous star tracker processing method implemented in Baseline-C from 3.8 to 3.7 m. Over sea ice, Baseline-D improves the quality of the retrieved heights inside and at the boundaries of the synthetic aperture radar interferometric (SARIn or SIN) acquisition mask, removing the negative freeboard pattern which is beneficial not only for freeboard retrieval but also for any application that exploits the phase information from SARIn Level 1B (L1B) products. In addition, scatter comparisons with the Beaufort Gyre Exploration Project (BGEP; https://www.whoi.edu/beaufortgyre, last access: October 2019) and Operation IceBridge (OIB; Kurtz et al., 2013) in situ measurements confirm the improvements in the Baseline-D freeboard product quality. Relative to OIB, the Baseline-D freeboard mean bias is reduced by about 8 cm, which roughly corresponds to a 60 % decrease with respect to Baseline-C. The BGEP data indicate a similar tendency with a mean draft bias lowered from 0.85 to −0.14 m. For the two in situ datasets, the root mean square deviation (RMSD) is also well reduced from 14 to 11 cm for OIB and by a factor of 2 for the BGEP. Observations over inland waters show a slight increase in the percentage of good observations in Baseline-D, generally around 5 %–10 % for most lakes. This paper provides an overview of the new Level 1 and Level 2 (L2) CryoSat Ice Baseline-D evolutions and related data quality assessment, based on results obtained from analyzing the 6-month Baseline-D test dataset released to CryoSat expert users prior to the final transfer to operations.
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  • 46
    Publication Date: 2020-07-10
    Description: The timing and intensity of snowmelt processes on sea ice are key drivers determining the seasonal sea-ice energy and mass budgets. In the Arctic, satellite passive microwave and radar observations have revealed a trend towards an earlier snowmelt onset during the last decades, which is an important aspect of Arctic amplification and sea ice decline. Around Antarctica, snowmelt on perennial ice is weak and very different than in the Arctic, with most snow surviving the summer. Here we compile time series of snowmelt-onset dates on seasonal and perennial Antarctic sea ice from 1992 to 2014/15 using active microwave observations from European Remote Sensing Satellite (ERS-1/2), Quick Scatterometer (QSCAT) and Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) radar scatterometers. We define two snowmelt transition stages: A weak backscatter rise indicating the initial warming and destructive metamorphism of the snowpack (pre-melt), followed by a rapid backscatter rise indicating the onset of thaw-freeze cycles (snowmelt). Results show large interannual variability with an average pre-melt onset date of 29 November and melt onset of 10 December, respectively, on perennial ice, without any significant trends over the study period, consistent with the small trends of Antarctic sea ice extent. There was a latitudinal gradient from early snowmelt onsets in mid-November in the northern Weddell Sea to late (end-December) or even absent snowmelt conditions in the southern Weddell Sea. We show that QSCAT Ku-band (13.4 GHz signal frequency) derived pre-melt and snowmelt onset dates are earlier by 20 and 18 days, respectively, than ERS and ASCAT C-band (5.6 GHz) derived dates. This offset has been considered when constructing the time series. Snowmelt onset dates from passive microwave observations (37 GHz) are later by 14 and 6 days than those from the scatterometers, respectively. Based on these characteristic differences between melt onset dates observed by different microwave wavelengths, we developed a conceptual model which illustrates how the seasonal evolution of snow temperature profiles may affect different microwave bands with different penetration depths. These suggest that future multi-frequency active/passive microwave satellite missions could be used to resolve melt processes throughout the vertical snow column of thick snow on perennial Antarctic sea ice.
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  • 47
    Publication Date: 2020-08-10
    Description: The Global Ocean Data Analysis Project (GLODAP) is a synthesis effort providing regular compilations of surface to bottom ocean biogeochemical data, with an emphasis on seawater inorganic carbon chemistry and related variables determined through chemical analysis of water samples. GLODAPv2.2020 is an update of the previous version, GLODAPv2.2019. The major changes are: data from 106 more cruises added, extension of time coverage until 2019, and the inclusion of available discrete fugacity of CO2 (fCO2) values in the merged product files. GLODAPv2.2020 includes measurements from more than 1.2 million water samples from the global oceans collected on 946 cruises. The data for the 12 GLODAP core variables (salinity, oxygen, nitrate, silicate, phosphate, dissolved inorganic carbon, total alkalinity, pH, CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-113, and CCl4) have undergone extensive quality control, especially systematic evaluation of bias. The data are available in two formats: (i) as submitted by the data originator but updated to WOCE exchange format and (ii) as a merged data product with adjustments applied to minimize bias. These adjustments were derived by comparing the data from the 106 new cruises with the data from the 840 quality-controlled cruises of the GLODAPv2.2019 data product. They correct for errors related to measurement, calibration, and data handling practices, while taking into account any known or likely time trends or variations in the variables evaluated. The compiled and adjusted data product is believed to be consistent to better than 0.005 in salinity, 1 % in oxygen, 2 % in nitrate, 2 % in silicate, 2 % in phosphate, 4 μmol kg−1 in dissolved inorganic carbon, 4 μmol kg−1 in total alkalinity, 0.01–0.02, depending on region, in pH, and 5 % in the halogenated transient tracers. The other variables included in the compilation, such as isotopic tracers and discrete fCO2 were not subjected to bias comparison or adjustments. The original data, their documentation and doi codes are available at the Ocean Carbon Data System of NOAA NCEI (https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/ocads/oceans/GLODAPv2_2020/, last access: 22 June 2020). This site also provides access to the merged data product, which is provided as a single global file and as four regional ones – the Arctic, Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific oceans – under https://doi.org/10.25921/2c8h-sa89 (Olsen et al., 2020). The bias corrected product files also include significant ancillary and approximated data. These were obtained by interpolation of, or calculation from, measured data. This living data update documents the GLODAPv2.2020 methods and provides a broad overview of the secondary quality control procedures and results.
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  • 48
    Publication Date: 2020-09-06
    Description: Recent observations of near-surface soil temperatures over the circumpolar Arctic show accelerated warming of permafrost-affected soils. The availability of a comprehensive near-surface permafrost and active layer dataset is critical to better understanding climate impacts and to constraining permafrost thermal conditions and its spatial distribution in land system models. We compiled a soil temperature dataset from 72 monitoring stations in Alaska using data collected by the US Geological Survey, the National Park Service, and the University of Alaska Fairbanks permafrost monitoring networks. The array of monitoring stations spans a large range of latitudes from 60.9 to 71.3 N and elevations from near sea level to~ 1300 m, comprising tundra and boreal forest regions. This dataset consists of monthly ground temperatures at depths up to 1 m, volumetric soil water content, snow depth, and air temperature during 1997–2016. These data have been quality controlled in collection and processing. Meanwhile, we implemented data harmonization evaluation for the processed dataset. The final product (PF-AK, v0. 1) is available at the Arctic Data Center (https://doi. org/10.18739/A2KG55).
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  • 49
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    Copernicus
    In:  EPIC3Geochemical evidence of a floating Arctic ice sheet and underlying freshwater in the Arctic Mediterranean in glacial periods, EGU General Assembly 2021, Copernicus, pp. EGU21-12910
    Publication Date: 2021-05-01
    Description: Numerous studies have addressed the possible existence of large floating ice sheets in the glacial Arctic Ocean from theoretical, modelling, or seafloor morphology perspectives. Here, we add evidence from the sediment record that support the existence of such freshwater ice caps in certain intervals, and we discuss their implications for possible non-linear and rapid behaviour of such a system in the high latitudes. We present sedimentary activities of 230Th together with 234U/238U ratios, the concentrations of manganese, sulphur and calcium in the context of lithological information and records of microfossils and their isotope composition. New analyses (PS51/038, PS72/396) and a re-analysis of existing marine sediment records (PS1533, PS1235, PS2185, PS2200, amongst others) in view of the naturally occurring radionuclide 230Thex and, where available, 10Be from the Arctic Ocean and the Nordic Seas reveal the widespread occurrence of intervals with a specific geochemical signature. The pattern of these parameters in a pan-Arctic view can best be explained when assuming the repeated presence of freshwater in frozen and liquid form across large parts of the Arctic Ocean and the Nordic Seas. Based on the sedimentary evidence and known environmental constraints at the time, we develop a glacial scenario that explains how these ice sheets, together with eustatic sea-level changes, may have affected the past oceanography of the Arctic Ocean in a fundamental way that must have led to a drastic and non-linear response to external forcing. This concept offers a possibility to explain and to some extent reconcile contrasting age models for the Late Pleistocene in the Arctic Ocean. Our view, if adopted, offers a coherent dating approach across the Arctic Ocean and the Nordic Seas, linked to events outside the Arctic.
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  • 50
    Publication Date: 2020-01-27
    Description: Although quantitative isotope data from speleothems has been used to evaluate isotope-enabled model simulations, currently no consensus exists regarding the most appropriate methodology through which to achieve this. A number of modelling groups will be running isotope-enabled palaeoclimate simulations in the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, so it is timely to evaluate different approaches to using the speleothem data for data–model comparisons. Here, we illustrate this using 456 globally distributed speleothem δ18O records from an updated version of the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and Analysis (SISAL) database and palaeoclimate simulations generated using the ECHAM5-wiso isotope-enabled atmospheric circulation model. We show that the SISAL records reproduce the first-order spatial patterns of isotopic variability in the modern day, strongly supporting the application of this dataset for evaluating model-derived isotope variability into the past. However, the discontinuous nature of many speleothem records complicates the process of procuring large numbers of records if data–model comparisons are made using the traditional approach of comparing anomalies between a control period and a given palaeoclimate experiment. To circumvent this issue, we illustrate techniques through which the absolute isotope values during any time period could be used for model evaluation. Specifically, we show that speleothem isotope records allow an assessment of a model’s ability to simulate spatial isotopic trends. Our analyses provide a protocol for using speleothem isotope data for model evaluation, including screening the observations to take into account the impact of speleothem mineralogy on δ18O values, the optimum period for the modern observational baseline and the selection of an appropriate time window for creating means of the isotope data for palaeo-time-slices.
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  • 51
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    Copernicus
    In:  EPIC3Climate of the Past, Copernicus, 15(6), pp. 1913-1937, ISSN: 1814-9332
    Publication Date: 2020-01-27
    Description: We present here the first results, for the preindustrial and mid-Holocene climatological periods, of the newly developed isotope-enhanced version of the fully coupled Earth system model MPI-ESM, called hereafter MPI-ESM-wiso. The water stable isotopes H16O, H18O and HDO have been implemented into all components of the coupled model setup. The mid-Holocene provides the opportunity to evaluate the model response to changes in the seasonal and latitudinal distribution of insolation induced by different orbital forcing conditions. The results of our equilibrium simulations allow us to evaluate the performance of the isotopic model in simulating the spatial and temporal variations of water isotopes in the different compartments of the hydrological system for warm climates. For the preindustrial climate, MPI-ESM-wiso reproduces very well the observed spatial distribution of the isotopic content in precipitation linked to the spatial variations in temperature and precipitation rate. We also find a good model–data agreement with the observed distribution of isotopic composition in surface seawater but a bias with the presence of surface seawater that is too 18O-depleted in the Arctic Ocean. All these results are improved compared to the previous model version ECHAM5/MPIOM. The spatial relationships of water isotopic composition with temperature, precipitation rate and salinity are consistent with observational data. For the preindustrial climate, the interannual relationships of water isotopes with temperature and salinity are globally lower than the spatial ones, consistent with previous studies. Simulated results under mid-Holocene conditions are in fair agreement with the isotopic measurements from ice cores and continental speleothems. MPI-ESM-wiso simulates a decrease in the isotopic composition of precipitation from North Africa to the Tibetan Plateau via India due to the enhanced monsoons during the mid-Holocene. Over Greenland, our simulation indicates a higher isotopic composition of precipitation linked to higher summer temperature and a reduction in sea ice, shown by positive isotope–temperature gradient. For the Antarctic continent, the model simulates lower isotopic values over the East Antarctic plateau, linked to the lower temperatures during the mid-Holocene period, while similar or higher isotopic values are modeled over the rest of the continent. While variations of isotopic contents in precipitation over West Antarctica between mid-Holocene and preindustrial periods are partly controlled by changes in temperature, the transport of relatively 18O-rich water vapor near the coast to the western ice core sites could play a role in the final isotopic composition. So, more caution has to be taken about the reconstruction of past temperature variations during warm periods over this area. The coupling of such a model with an ice sheet model or the use of a zoomed grid centered on this region could help to better describe the role of the water vapor transport and sea ice around West Antarctica. The reconstruction of past salinity through isotopic content in sea surface waters can be complicated for regions with strong ocean dynamics, variations in sea ice regimes or significant changes in freshwater budget, giving an extremely variable relationship between the isotopic content and salinity of ocean surface waters over small spatial scales. These complicating factors demonstrate the complexity of interpreting water isotopes as past climate signals of warm periods like the mid-Holocene. A systematic isotope model intercomparison study for further insights on the model dependency of these results would be beneficial.
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  • 52
    Publication Date: 2020-02-17
    Description: Glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) is a major source of uncertainty for ice and ocean mass balance estimates derived from satellite gravimetry. In Antarctica the gravimetric effect of cryospheric mass change and GIA are of the same order of magnitude. Inverse estimates from geodetic observations hold some promise for mass signal separation. Here, we investigate the combination of satellite gravimetry and altimetry and demonstrate that the choice of input data sets and processing methods will influence the resultant GIA inverse estimate. This includes the combination that spans the full GRACE record (April 2002–August 2016). Additionally, we show the variations that arise from combining the actual time series of the differing data sets. Using the inferred trends, we assess the spread of GIA solutions owing to (1) the choice of different degree-1 and C20 products, (2) viable candidate surface-elevation-change products derived from different altimetry missions corresponding to different time intervals, and (3) the uncertainties associated with firn process models. Decomposing the total-mass signal into the ice mass and the GIA components is strongly dependent on properly correcting for an apparent bias in regions of small signal. Here our ab initio solutions force the mean GIA and GRACE trend over the low precipitation zone of East Antarctica to be zero. Without applying this bias correction, the overall spread of total-mass change and GIA-related mass change using differing degree-1 and C20 products is 68 and 72 Gt a−1, respectively, for the same time period (March 2003–October 2009). The bias correction method collapses this spread to 6 and 5 Gt a−1, respectively. We characterize the firn process model uncertainty empirically by analysing differences between two alternative surface mass balance products. The differences propagate to a 10 Gt a−1 spread in debiased GIA-related mass change estimates. The choice of the altimetry product poses the largest uncertainty on debiased mass change estimates. The spread of debiased GIA-related mass change amounts to 15 Gt a−1 for the period from March 2003 to October 2009. We found a spread of 49 Gt a−1 comparing results for the periods April 2002–August 2016 and July 2010–August 2016. Our findings point out limitations associated with data quality, data processing, and correction for apparent biases.
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  • 53
    Publication Date: 2021-03-25
    Description: Landfast sea ice (fast ice) attached to Antarctic (near-)coastal elements is a critical component of the local physical and ecological systems. Through its direct coupling with the atmosphere and ocean, fast-ice properties are also a potential indicator of processes related to a changing climate. However, in situ fast-ice observations in Antarctica are extremely sparse because of logistical challenges and harsh environmental conditions. Since 2010, a monitoring program observing the seasonal evolution of fast ice in Atka Bay has been conducted as part of the Antarctic Fast Ice Network (AFIN). The bay is located on the northeastern edge of Ekström Ice Shelf in the eastern Weddell Sea, close to the German wintering station Neumayer III. A number of sampling sites have been regularly revisited each year between annual ice formation and breakup to obtain a continuous record of sea-ice and sub-ice platelet-layer thickness, as well as snow depth and freeboard across the bay. Here, we present the time series of these measurements over the last 9 years. Combining them with observations from the nearby Neumayer III meteorological observatory as well as auxiliary satellite images enables us to relate the seasonal and interannual fast-ice cycle to the factors that influence their evolution. On average, the annual consolidated fast-ice thickness at the end of the growth season is about 2 m, with a loose platelet layer of 4 m thickness beneath and 0.70 m thick snow on top. Results highlight the predominately seasonal character of the fast-ice regime in Atka Bay without a significant interannual trend in any of the observed variables over the 9-year observation period. Also, no changes are evident when comparing with sporadic measurements in the 1980s and 1990s. It is shown that strong easterly winds in the area govern the year-round snow distribution and also trigger the breakup of fast ice in the bay during summer months. Due to the substantial snow accumulation on the fast ice, a characteristic feature is frequent negative freeboard, associated flooding of the snow–ice interface, and a likely subsequent snow ice formation. The buoyant platelet layer beneath negates the snow weight to some extent, but snow thermodynamics is identified as the main driver of the energy and mass budgets for the fast-ice cover in Atka Bay. The new knowledge of the seasonal and interannual variability of fast-ice properties from the present study helps to improve our understanding of interactions between atmosphere, fast ice, ocean, and ice shelves in one of the key regions of Antarctica and calls for intensified multidisciplinary studies in this region.
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  • 54
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    Copernicus
    In:  EPIC3The Cryosphere, Copernicus, 10(5), pp. 2517-2532, ISSN: 1994-0424
    Publication Date: 2020-09-06
    Description: Permafrost temperatures are increasing in Alaska due to climate change and in some cases permafrost is thawing and degrading. In areas where degradation has already occurred the effects can be dramatic, resulting in changing ecosystems, carbon release, and damage to infrastructure. However, in many areas we lack baseline data, such as subsurface temperatures, needed to assess future changes and potential risk areas. Besides climate, the physical properties of the vegetation cover and subsurface material have a major influence on the thermal state of permafrost. These properties are often directly related to the type of ecosystem overlaying permafrost. In this paper we demonstrate that classifying the landscape into general ecotypes is an effective way to scale up permafrost thermal data collected from field monitoring sites. Additionally, we find that within some ecotypes the absence of a moss layer is indicative of the absence of near-surface permafrost. As a proof of concept, we used the ground temperature data collected from the field sites to recode an ecotype land cover map into a map of mean annual ground temperature ranges at 1 m depth based on analysis and clustering of observed thermal regimes. The map should be useful for decision making with respect to land use and understanding how the landscape might change under future climate scenarios.
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  • 55
    Publication Date: 2021-07-01
    Description: The Pliocene epoch has great potential to improve our understanding of the long-term climatic and environmental consequences of an atmospheric CO2 concentration near ∼400 parts per million by volume. Here we present the large-scale features of Pliocene climate as simulated by a new ensemble of climate models of varying complexity and spatial resolution based on new reconstructions of boundary conditions (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2; PlioMIP2). As a global annual average, modelled surface air temperatures increase by between 1.7 and 5.2 °C relative to the pre-industrial era with a multi-model mean value of 3.2 °C. Annual mean total precipitation rates increase by 7 % (range: 2 %–13 %). On average, surface air temperature (SAT) increases by 4.3 °C over land and 2.8 °C over the oceans. There is a clear pattern of polar amplification with warming polewards of 60°N and 60°S exceeding the global mean warming by a factor of 2.3. In the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, meridional temperature gradients are reduced, while tropical zonal gradients remain largely unchanged. There is a statistically significant relationship between a model's climate response associated with a doubling in CO2 (equilibrium climate sensitivity; ECS) and its simulated Pliocene surface temperature response. The mean ensemble Earth system response to a doubling of CO2 (including ice sheet feedbacks) is 67 % greater than ECS; this is larger than the increase of 47 % obtained from the PlioMIP1 ensemble. Proxy-derived estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperatures are used to assess model estimates of ECS and give an ECS range of 2.6–4.8°C. This result is in general accord with the ECS range presented by previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports.
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  • 56
    Publication Date: 2021-06-16
    Description: In the last decades, changing climate conditions have had a severe impact on sea ice at the western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP), an area rapidly transforming under global warming. To study the development of spring sea ice and environmental conditions in the pre-satellite era we investigated three short marine sediment cores for their biomarker inventory with a particular focus on the sea ice proxy IPSO25 and micropaleontological proxies. The core sites are located in the Bransfield Strait in shelf to deep basin areas characterized by a complex oceanographic frontal system, coastal influence and sensitivity to large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. We analyzed geochemical bulk parameters, biomarkers (highly branched isoprenoids, glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers, sterols), and diatom abundances and diversity over the past 240 years and compared them to observational data, sedimentary and ice core climate archives, and results from numerical models. Based on biomarker results we identified four different environmental units characterized by (A) low sea ice cover and high ocean temperatures, (B) moderate sea ice cover with decreasing ocean temperatures, (C) high but variable sea ice cover during intervals of lower ocean temperatures, and (D) extended sea ice cover coincident with a rapid ocean warming. While IPSO25 concentrations correspond quite well to satellite sea ice observations for the past 40 years, we note discrepancies between the biomarker-based sea ice estimates, the long-term model output for the past 240 years, ice core records, and reconstructed atmospheric circulation patterns such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Southern Annular Mode (SAM). We propose that the sea ice biomarker proxies IPSO25 and PIPSO25 are not linearly related to sea ice cover, and, additionally, each core site reflects specific local environmental conditions. High IPSO25 and PIPSO25 values may not be directly interpreted as referring to high spring sea ice cover because variable sea ice conditions and enhanced nutrient supply may affect the production of both the sea-ice-associated and phytoplankton-derived (open marine, pelagic) biomarker lipids. For future interpretations we recommend carefully considering individual biomarker records to distinguish between cold sea-ice-favoring and warm sea-ice-diminishing environmental conditions.
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  • 57
    Publication Date: 2021-07-01
    Description: The modeling of paleoclimate, using physically based tools, is increasingly seen as a strong out-of-sample test of the models that are used for the projection of future climate changes. New to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) is the Tier 1 Last Interglacial experiment for 127 000 years ago (lig127k), designed to address the climate responses to stronger orbital forcing than the midHolocene experiment, using the same state-of-the-art models as for the future and following a common experimental protocol. Here we present a first analysis of a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, all of which have completed the CMIP6 DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) experiments. The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of these models varies from 1.8 to 5.6 ∘C. The seasonal character of the insolation anomalies results in strong summer warming over the Northern Hemisphere continents in the lig127k ensemble as compared to the CMIP6 piControl and much-reduced minimum sea ice in the Arctic. The multi-model results indicate enhanced summer monsoonal precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere and reductions in the Southern Hemisphere. These responses are greater in the lig127k than the CMIP6 midHolocene simulations as expected from the larger insolation anomalies at 127 than 6 ka. New synthesis for surface temperature and precipitation, targeted for 127 ka, have been developed for comparison to the multi-model ensemble. The lig127k model ensemble and data reconstructions are in good agreement for summer temperature anomalies over Canada, Scandinavia, and the North Atlantic and for precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere continents. The model–data comparisons and mismatches point to further study of the sensitivity of the simulations to uncertainties in the boundary conditions and of the uncertainties and sparse coverage in current proxy reconstructions. The CMIP6–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) lig127k simulations, in combination with the proxy record, improve our confidence in future projections of monsoons, surface temperature, and Arctic sea ice, thus providing a key target for model evaluation and optimization.
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  • 58
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    Wiley-Blackwell
    In:  EPIC3Climate Change Impacts on Fisheries and Aquaculture: A Global Analysis, Climate Change Impacts on Fisheries and Aquaculture: A Global Analysis, Wiley-Blackwell, pp. 663-701, ISBN: 978-1-119-15404-4
    Publication Date: 2017-10-09
    Description: Exploitation of Southern Ocean marine resources began more than 200 years ago with the massive hunt for seals and whales. In the 1960s/70s, fisheries for finfish and krill entered Southern Ocean waters. Within a few years many fish populations were heavily overfished and dramatically depleted, and some of these stocks still did not recover. Today, fish stocks and fisheries activities are managed and monitored by the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) which was established in 1982 to ensure sustainable exploitation and protection of the delicate marine ecosystem. Current target species include Mackerel icefish (Champsocephalus gunnari), Patagonian as well as Antarctic toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides and D. mawsoni) and Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba). Most of these species are vulnerable to overfishing due to slow growth, late age at maturity, and rather low fecundity. This vulnerability might increase, as Southern Ocean living communities are currently also faced with alterations of their environment due to climate change, such as increasing water temperatures and decreasing sea ice. Species, including the ones targetted by fisheries, are well-adapted to their particular environmental conditions and are believed to be highly sensitive to changes because of their cold-adapted physiology, their life history traits, and their direct or indirect dependence on sea ice. The species will be exposed to several stressors at the same time, and fishing pressure, direct abiotic forcing and changes mediated via the food web might act synergistically and result in significant population declines. In particular the strongly sea ice-dependent Antarctic krill, a key species in the food web, might be adversely affected. Fish species seems to have low tolerance towards higher water temperatures and may thus, in the long run, be replaced by lower latitude species.
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  • 59
    Publication Date: 2017-12-19
    Description: Climate trends in the Antarctic region remain poorly characterized, owing to the brevity and scarcity of direct climate observations and the large magnitude of interannual to decadal-scale climate variability. Here, within the framework of the PAGES Antarctica2k working group, we build an enlarged database of ice core water stable isotope records from Antarctica, consisting of 112 records. We produce both unweighted and weighted isotopic (δ18O) composites and temperature reconstructions since 0 CE, binned at 5- and 10-year resolution, for seven climatically distinct regions covering the Antarctic continent. Following earlier work of the Antarctica2k working group, we also produce composites and reconstructions for the broader regions of East Antarctica, West Antarctica and the whole continent. We use three methods for our temperature reconstructions: (i) a temperature scaling based on the δ18O–temperature relationship output from an ECHAM5-wiso model simulation nudged to ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalyses from 1979 to 2013, and adjusted for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet region to borehole temperature data, (ii) a temperature scaling of the isotopic normalized anomalies to the variance of the regional reanalysis temperature and (iii) a composite-plus-scaling approach used in a previous continent-scale reconstruction of Antarctic temperature since 1 CE but applied to the new Antarctic ice core database. Our new reconstructions confirm a significant cooling trend from 0 to 1900 CE across all Antarctic regions where records extend back into the 1st millennium, with the exception of the Wilkes Land coast and Weddell Sea coast regions. Within this long-term cooling trend from 0 to 1900 CE, we find that the warmest period occurs between 300 and 1000 CE, and the coldest interval occurs from 1200 to 1900 CE. Since 1900 CE, significant warming trends are identified for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, the Dronning Maud Land coast and the Antarctic Peninsula regions, and these trends are robust across the distribution of records that contribute to the unweighted isotopic composites and also significant in the weighted temperature reconstructions. Only for the Antarctic Peninsula is this most recent century-scale trend unusual in the context of natural variability over the last 2000 years. However, projected warming of the Antarctic continent during the 21st century may soon see significant and unusual warming develop across other parts of the Antarctic continent. The extended Antarctica2k ice core isotope database developed by this working group opens up many avenues for developing a deeper understanding of the response of Antarctic climate to natural and anthropogenic climate forcings. The first long-term quantification of regional climate in Antarctica presented herein is a basis for data–model comparison and assessments of past, present and future driving factors of Antarctic climate.
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  • 60
    Publication Date: 2018-04-05
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 61
    Publication Date: 2018-04-16
    Description: The denudation history of active orogens is often interpreted in the context of modern climate gradients. Here we address the validity of this approach and ask what are the spatial and temporal variations in palaeoclimate for a latitudinally diverse range of active orogens? We do this using high-resolution (T159, ca. 80 × 80 km at the Equator) palaeoclimate simulations from the ECHAM5 global atmospheric general circulation model and a statistical cluster analysis of climate over different orogens (Andes, Himalayas, SE Alaska, Pacific NW USA). Time periods and boundary conditions considered include the Pliocene (PLIO, ∼3Ma), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼21ka), mid-Holocene (MH, ∼6ka), and pre-industrial (PI, reference year 1850). The regional simulated climates of each orogen are described by means of cluster analyses based on the variability in precipitation, 2 m air temperature, the intra-annual amplitude of these values, and monsoonal wind speeds where appropriate. Results indicate the largest differences in the PI climate existed for the LGM and PLIO climates in the form of widespread cooling and reduced precipitation in the LGM and warming and enhanced precipitation during the PLIO. The LGM climate shows the largest deviation in annual precipitation from the PI climate and shows enhanced precipitation in the temperate Andes and coastal regions for both SE Alaska and the US Pacific Northwest. Furthermore, LGM precipitation is reduced in the western Himalayas and enhanced in the eastern Himalayas, resulting in a shift of the wettest regional climates eastward along the orogen. The cluster-analysis results also suggest more climatic variability across latitudes east of the Andes in the PLIO climate than in other time slice experiments conducted here. Taken together, these results highlight significant changes in late Cenozoic regional climatology over the last ∼3Myr. Comparison of simulated climate with proxy-based reconstructions for the MH and LGM reveal satisfactory to good performance of the model in reproducing precipitation changes, although in some cases discrepancies between neighbouring proxy observations highlight contradictions between proxy observations themselves. Finally, we document regions where the largest magnitudes of late Cenozoic changes in precipitation and temperature occur and offer the highest potential for future observational studies that quantify the impact of climate change on denudation and weathering rates.
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  • 62
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    Copernicus
    In:  EPIC3Earth System Dynamics, Copernicus, 9(3), pp. 939-954, ISSN: 2190-4979
    Publication Date: 2018-07-09
    Description: In austral spring 2016 the Antarctic region experienced anomalous sea ice retreat in all sectors, with sea ice extent in October and November 2016 being the lowest in the Southern Hemisphere over the observational period (1979–present). The extreme sea ice retreat was accompanied by widespread warming along the coastal areas as well as in the interior of the Antarctic continent. This exceptional event occurred along with a strong negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the moistest and warmest spring on record, over large areas covering the Indian Ocean, the Ross Sea and the Weddell Sea. In October 2016, the positive anomalies of the totally integrated water vapor (IWV) and 2 m air temperature (T2m) over the Indian Ocean, western Pacific, Bellingshausen Sea and southern part of Ross Sea were unprecedented in the last 39 years. In October and November 2016, when the largest magnitude of negative daily sea ice concentration anomalies was observed, repeated episodes of poleward advection of warm and moist air took place. These results suggest the importance of moist and warm air intrusions into the Antarctic region as one of the main contributors to this exceptional sea ice retreat event.
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  • 63
    Publication Date: 2018-08-20
    Description: To resolve the mechanisms behind the major climate reorganisation which occurred between 0.9 and 1.2Ma, the recovery of a suitable 1.5 million-year-old ice core is fundamental. The quest for such an Oldest Ice core requires a number of key boundary conditions, of which the poorly known basal geothermal heat flux (GHF) is lacking. We use a transient thermodynamical 1D vertical model that solves for the rate of change of temperature in the vertical, with surface temperature and modelled GHF as boundary conditions. For each point on the ice sheet, the model is forced with variations in atmospheric conditions over the last 2Ma, and modelled ice-thickness variations. The process is repeated for a range of GHF values to determine the value of GHF that marks the limit between frozen and melting conditions over the whole ice sheet, taking into account 2Ma of climate history. These threshold values of GHF are statistically compared to existing GHF data sets. The new probabilistic GHF fields obtained for the ice sheet thus provide the missing boundary conditions in the search for Oldest Ice. High spatial resolution radar data are examined locally in the Dome Fuji and Dome C regions, as these represent the ice core community's primary drilling sites. GHF, bedrock variability, ice thickness and other essential criteria combined highlight a dozen major potential Oldest Ice sites in the vicinity of Dome Fuji and Dome C, where GHF allows for Oldest Ice.
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  • 64
    Publication Date: 2018-09-10
    Description: Polar ice core water isotope records are commonly used to infer past changes in Antarctic temperature, motivating an improved understanding and quantification of the temporal relationship between δ18O and temperature. This can be achieved using simulations performed by atmospheric general circulation models equipped with water stable isotopes. Here, we evaluate the skills of the high-resolution water-isotope-enabled atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5-wiso (the European Centre Hamburg Model) nudged to European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis using simulations covering the period 1960–2013 over the Antarctic continent. We compare model outputs with field data, first with a focus on regional climate variables and second on water stable isotopes, using our updated dataset of water stable isotope measurements from precipitation, snow, and firn–ice core samples. ECHAM5-wiso simulates a large increase in temperature from 1978 to 1979, possibly caused by a discontinuity in the European Reanalyses (ERA) linked to the assimilation of remote sensing data starting in 1979. Although some model–data mismatches are observed, the (precipitation minus evaporation) outputs are found to be realistic products for surface mass balance. A warm model bias over central East Antarctica and a cold model bias over coastal regions explain first-order δ18O model biases by too strong isotopic depletion on coastal areas and underestimated depletion inland. At the second order, despite these biases, ECHAM5-wiso correctly captures the observed spatial patterns of deuterium excess. The results of model–data comparisons for the inter-annual δ18O standard deviation difer when using precipitation or ice core data. Further studies should explore the importance of deposition and post-deposition processes affecting ice core signals and not resolved in the model. These results build trust in the use of ECHAM5-wiso outputs to investigate the spatial, seasonal, and inter-annual δ18O–temperature relationships. We thus make the first Antarctica-wide synthesis of prior results. First, we show that local spatial or seasonal slopes are not a correct surrogate for inter-annual temporal slopes, leading to the conclusion that the same isotope–temperature slope cannot be applied for the climatic interpretation of Antarctic ice core for all timescales. Finally, we explore the phasing between the seasonal cycles of deuterium excess and δ18O as a source of information on changes in moisture sources affecting the δ18O–temperature relationship. The few available records and ECHAM5-wiso show different phase relationships in coastal, intermediate, and central regions. This work evaluates the use of the ECHAM5-wiso model as a tool for the investigation of water stable isotopes in Antarctic precipitation and calls for extended studies to improve our understanding of such proxies.
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  • 65
    Publication Date: 2018-09-10
    Description: The effect of external forcings on atmospheric circulation is debated. Due to the short observational period, the analysis of the role of external forcings is hampered, making it difficult to assess the sensitivity of atmospheric circulation to external forcings, as well as persistence of the effects. In observations, the average response to tropical volcanic eruptions is a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during the following winter. However, past major tropical eruptions exceeding the magnitude of eruptions during the instrumental era could have had more lasting effects. Decadal NAO variability has been suggested to follow the 11-year solar cycle, and linkages have been made between grand solar minima and negative NAO. However, the solar link to NAO found by modeling studies is not unequivocally supported by reconstructions, and is not consistently present in observations for the 20th century. Here we present a reconstruction of atmospheric winter circulation for the North Atlantic region covering the period 1241–1970 CE. Based on seasonally resolved Greenland ice core records and a 1200-year-long simulation with an isotope-enabled climate model, we reconstruct sea level pressure and temperature by matching the spatiotemporal variability in the modeled isotopic composition to that of the ice cores. This method allows us to capture the primary (NAO) and secondary mode (Eastern Atlantic Pattern) of atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic region, while, contrary to previous reconstructions, preserving the amplitude of observed year-to-year atmospheric variability. Our results show five winters of positive NAO on average following major tropical volcanic eruptions, which is more persistent than previously suggested. In response to decadal minima of solar activity we find a high-pressure anomaly over northern Europe, while a reinforced opposite response in pressure emerges with a 5-year time lag. On centennial timescales we observe a similar response of circulation as for the 5-year time-lagged response, with a high-pressure anomaly across North America and south of Greenland. This response to solar forcing is correlated to the second mode of atmospheric circulation, the Eastern Atlantic Pattern. The response could be due to an increase in blocking frequency, possibly linked to a weakening of the subpolar gyre. The long-term anomalies of temperature during solar minima shows cooling across Greenland, Iceland and western Europe, resembling the cooling pattern during the Little Ice Age (1450–1850 CE). While our results show significant correlation between solar forcing and the secondary circulation pattern on decadal (r = 0.29, p 〈 0.01) and centennial timescales (r = 0.6, p 〈 0.01), we find no consistent relationship between solar forcing and NAO. We conclude that solar and volcanic forcing impacts different modes of our reconstructed atmospheric circulation, which can aid in separating the regional effects of forcings and understanding the underlying mechanisms.
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  • 66
    Publication Date: 2018-10-08
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  • 67
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    Copernicus
    In:  EPIC3European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly, Vienna, Austria, 2018-04-08-2018-04-13Copernicus
    Publication Date: 2018-06-18
    Description: North Pacific Intermediate water (NPIW) is a dominant water mass controlling ∼400-1200m depth North Pacific Ocean, meanwhile there is a cessation of North Pacific deep water (NPDW) formation in in modern observations. In contrast, paleoceanographic evidences have recorded NPDW formations during last glacial periods. This sug- gests either a rapid or gradual shutting down process of NPDW formation during the last deglaciation. Here, we use an Earth System Model to diagnose the physical and corresponding biogeochemical evolutions in the North Pacific Ocean before and after the last deglaciation, as well as potential changes during rapid climate shifts of the last deglaciation. Linked to different background climate conditions and varying Atlantic Meridional Over- turning Circulation states, we characterize the modelled NPIW and NPDW changes and builds up linkages to marine records. Our results further develop our understanding about the deglacial switch from NPDW to modern NPIW-only formation process.
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  • 68
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    Wiley-Blackwell
    In:  EPIC3Harmful Algal Blooms: A Compendium Desk Reference, Wiley-Blackwell, 8 p., pp. 605-612, ISBN: 978-1-118-99465-8
    Publication Date: 2018-06-28
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Inbook , peerRev
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  • 69
    Publication Date: 2018-10-29
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , notRev
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  • 70
    Publication Date: 2016-11-16
    Description: Permafrost presence is determined by a complex interaction of climatic, topographic, and ecological conditions operating over long time scales. In particular, vegetation and organic layer characteristics may act to protect permafrost in regions with a mean annual air temperature (MAAT) above 0°C. In this study, we document the presence of residual permafrost plateaus in the western Kenai Peninsula lowlands of south-central Alaska, a region with a MAAT of 1.5+/-1 °C (1981–2010). Continuous ground temperature measurements between 16 September 2012 and 15 September 2015, using calibrated thermistor strings, documented the presence of warm permafrost (-0.04 to -0.08 °C). Field measurements (probing) on several plateau features during the fall of 2015 showed that the depth to the permafrost table averaged 1.48m but at some locations was as shallow as 0.53 m. Late winter surveys (augering, coring, and GPR) in 2016 showed that the average seasonally frozen ground thickness was 0.45 m, overlying a talik above the permafrost table. Measured permafrost thickness ranged from 0.33 to 〉6.90 m. Manual interpretation of historic aerial photography acquired in 1950 indicates that residual permafrost plateaus covered 920 ha as mapped across portions of four wetland complexes encompassing 4810 ha. However, between 1950 and ca. 2010, permafrost plateau extent decreased by 60.0 %, with lateral feature degradation accounting for 85.0% of the reduction in area. Permafrost loss on the Kenai Peninsula is likely associated with a warming climate, wildfires that remove the protective forest and organic layer cover, groundwater flow at depth, and lateral heat transfer from wetland surface waters in the summer. Better understanding the resilience and vulnerability of ecosystem-protected permafrost is critical for mapping and predicting future permafrost extent and degradation across all permafrost regions that are currently warming. Further work should focus on reconstructing permafrost history in south-central Alaska as well as additional contemporary observations of these ecosystem-protected permafrost sites south of the regions with relatively stable permafrost.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 71
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Prominent arrivals in the coda of seismograms from the wider Alpine area can be associated with lateral reflections of Love waves at the northern Apennines mountain chain (Italy), where structural heterogeneity causes an abrupt contrast in phase velocity. We discuss an approach to image lateral heterogeneity from reflected surface waves using intermediate-period, three- component coda waveforms as sources for an adjoint wavefield that propagates the reflections backward in time. We numerically compute three-dimensional sensitivity kernels for the dependence of coda waveforms on P velocity, S velocity and density, based upon correlations between the adjoint and the regular forward wavefields. We consider synthetic coda waveforms for a simplified model of the northern Apennines, as well as real coda observations from five moderate magnitude earthquakes (M W 4.6–5.6) in the southern Alps. Wave propagation is simulated using the spectral-element method, for which a 3-D regional earth model is used in the case of real data. Single and combined event sensitivity kernels provide clear images of the reflectivity associated with the northern Apennines in kernels for density and S-wave speed. The kernels show that surface wave reflections occur near the axial zone of the mountain chain. Apart from the Apennines, the approach is able to image other smaller reflectivity patches from the coda waveforms, like the Ivrea zone in the southern Alps. Our coda misfit kernels can be integrated in a gradient-based waveform tomography, where they could enhance the shar pness of the model at lateral discontinuities.
    Description: Published
    Description: 543–554
    Description: 3.3. Geodinamica e struttura dell'interno della Terra
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Tomography; ; Computational seismology ; Wave scattering and diffraction ; Crustal structure ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.07. Tomography and anisotropy
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 72
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Methane plays an important role in the Earth’s atmospheric chemistry and radiative balance being the second most important greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide. Methane is released to the atmosphere by a wide number of sources, both natural and anthropogenic, with the latter being twice as large as the former (IPCC, 2007). It has recently been established that significant amounts of geological methane, produced within the Earth’s crust, are currently released naturally into the atmosphere (Etiope, 2004). Active or recent volcanic/geothermal areas represent one of these sources of geological methane. But due to the fact that methane flux measurements are laboratory intensive, very few data have been collected until now and the contribution of this source has been generally indirectly estimated (Etiope et al., 2007). The Greek territory is geodynamically very active and has many volcanic and geothermal areas. Here we report on methane flux measurements made at two volcanic/geothermal systems along the South Aegean volcanic arc: Sousaki and Nisyros. The former is an extinct volcanic area of Plio-Pleistocene age hosting nowadays a low enthalpy geothermal field. The latter is a currently quiescent active volcanic system with strong fumarolic activity due to the presence of a high enthalpy geothermal system. Both systems have gas manifestations that emit significant amounts of hydrothermal methane and display important diffuse carbon dioxide emissions from the soils. New data on methane isotopic composition and higher hydrocarbon contents point to an abiogenic origin of the hydrothermal methane in the studied systems. Measured methane flux values range from –48 to 29,000 (38 sites) and from –20 to 1100 mg/mˆ2/d (35 sites) at Sousaki and Nisyros respectively. At Sousaki measurement sites covered almost all the degassing area and the diffuse methane output can be estimated in about 20 t/a from a surface of about 10,000 mˆ2. At Nisyros measurements covered the Stephanos and Kaminakia areas, which represent only a part of the entire degassing area. The two areas show very different methane degassing pattern with latter showing much higher flux values. Methane output can be estimated in about 0.25 t/a from an area of about 30,000 mˆ2 at Stephanos and about 1 t/a from an area of about 20,000 mˆ2 at Kaminakia. The total output from the entire geothermal system of Nisyros probably should not exceed 2 t/a.
    Description: Published
    Description: Vienna, Austria
    Description: 4.5. Studi sul degassamento naturale e sui gas petroliferi
    Description: open
    Keywords: methane output ; diffuse degassing ; volcanic/hydrothermal systems ; Greece ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.03. Pollution ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.07. Volcanic effects ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.01. Gases ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.01. Geochemical data ; 05. General::05.08. Risk::05.08.01. Environmental risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Poster session
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  • 73
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: A biomonitoring survey, above tree line level, using two endemic species (Senecio aethnensis and Rumex aethnensis) was performed on Mt. Etna, in order to evaluate the dispersion and the impact of volcanic atmospheric emissions. Samples of leaves were collected in summer 2008 from 30 sites in the upper part of the volcano (1500- 3000 m a.s.l). Acid digestion of samples was carried out with a microwave oven, and 44 elements were analyzed by using plasma spectrometry (ICP-MS and ICP-OES). The highest concentrations of all investigated elements were found in the samples collected closest to the degassing craters, and in the downwind sector, confirming that the eastern flank of Mt. Etna is the most impacted by volcanic emissions. Leaves collected along two radial transects from the active vents on the eastern flank, highlight that the levels of metals decrease one or two orders of magnitude with increasing distance from the source. This variability is higher for volatile elements (As, Bi, Cd, Cs, Pb, Sb, Tl) than for more refractory elements (Al, Ba, Sc, Si, Sr, Th, U). The two different species of plants do not show significant differences in the bioaccumulation of most of the analyzed elements, except for lanthanides, which are systematically enriched in Rumex leaves. The high concentrations of many toxic elements in the leaves allow us to consider these plants as highly tolerant species to the volcanic emissions, and suitable for biomonitoring researches in the Mt. Etna area.
    Description: Published
    Description: Vienna, Austria
    Description: 4.4. Scenari e mitigazione del rischio ambientale
    Description: open
    Keywords: Mt. Etna ; biomonitoring ; Trace elements ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.03. Pollution ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.07. Volcanic effects ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.01. Gases ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.01. Geochemical data ; 05. General::05.08. Risk::05.08.01. Environmental risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Poster session
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  • 74
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Etna volcano, Italy, hosts one of the major groundwater systems of the island of Sicily. Waters circulate within highly permeable fractured, mainly hawaiitic, volcanic rocks. Aquifers are limited downwards by the underlying impermeable sedimentary terrains. Thickness of the volcanic rocks generally does not exceed some 300 m, preventing the waters to reach great depths. This is faced by short travel times (years to tens of years) and low thermalisation of the Etnean groundwaters. Measured temperatures are, in fact, generally lower than 25 °C. But the huge annual meteoric recharge (about 0.97 kmˆ3) with a high actual infiltration coefficient (0.75) implies a great underground circulation. During their travel from the summit area to the periphery of the volcano, waters acquire magmatic heat together with volcanic gases and solutes through water-rock interaction processes. In the last 20 years the Etnean aquifers has been extensively studied. Their waters were analysed for dissolved major, minor and trace element, O, H, C, S, B, Sr and He isotopes, and dissolved gas composition. These data have been published in several articles. Here, after a summary of the obtained results, the estimation of the magmatic heat flux through the aquifer will be discussed. To calculate heat uptake during subsurface circulation, for each sampling point (spring, well or drainage gallery) the following data have been considered: flow rate, water temperature, and oxygen isotopic composition. The latter was used to calculate the mean recharge altitude through the measured local isotopic lapse rate. Mean recharge temperatures, weighted for rain amount throughout the year, were obtained from the local weather station network. Calculations were made for a representative number of sampling points (216) including all major issues and corresponding to a total water flow of about 0.315 kmˆ3/a, which is 40% of the effective meteoric recharge. Results gave a total energy output of about 140 MW/a the half of which is ascribable to only 13 sampling points. These correspond to the highest flow drainage galleries with fluxes ranging from 50 to 1000 l/s and wells with pumping rates from 70 to 250 l/s. Geographical distribution indicates that, like magmatic gas leakage, heat flow is influenced by structural features of the volcanic edifice. The major heat discharge through groundwater are all tightly connected either to the major regional tectonic systems or to the major volcanic rift zones along which the most important flank eruptions take place. But rift zones are much more important for heat upraise due to the frequent dikes injection than for gas escape because generally when dikes have been emplaced the structure is no more permeable to gases because it becomes sealed by the cooling magma.
    Description: Published
    Description: Vienna, Austria
    Description: 1.2. TTC - Sorveglianza geochimica delle aree vulcaniche attive
    Description: open
    Keywords: groundwaters ; volcanic surveillance ; water chemistry ; dissolved gases ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.02. Hydrology::03.02.03. Groundwater processes ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.02. Hydrology::03.02.04. Measurements and monitoring ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.04. Chemical and biological::03.04.03. Chemistry of waters ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.04. Chemical and biological::03.04.05. Gases ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.04. Chemical and biological::03.04.06. Hydrothermal systems
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Oral presentation
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  • 75
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Volcanoes represent an important natural source of several trace elements to the atmosphere. For some species (e.g., As, Cd, Pb and Se) they may be the main natural source and thereby strongly influencing geochemical cycles from the local to the global scale. Mount Etna is one of the most actively degassing volcanoes in the world, and it is considered to be, on the long-term average, the major atmospheric point source of many environmental harmful compounds. Their emission occurs either through continuous passive degassing from open-conduit activity or through sporadic paroxysmal eruptive activity, in the form of gases, aerosols or particulate. To estimate the environmental impact of magma-derived trace metals and their depositions processes, rainwater and snow samples were collected at Mount Etna area. Five bulk collectors have been deployed at various altitudes on the upper flanks around the summit craters of the volcano; samples were collected every two week for a period of one year and analyzed for the main chemical-physical parameters (electric conductivity and pH) and for major and trace elements concentrations. Chemical analysis of rainwater clearly shows that the volcanic contribution is always prevailing in the sampling site closest to the summit crater (about 1.5 km). In the distal sites (5.5-10 km from the summit) and downwind of the summit craters, the volcanic contribution is also detectable but often overwhelmed by anthropogenic or other natural (seawater spray, geogenic dust) contributions. Volcanic contribution may derive from both dry and wet deposition of gases and aerosols from the volcanic plume, but sometimes also from leaching of freshly emitted volcanic ashes. In fact, in our background site (7.5 km in the upwind direction) volcanic contribution has been detected only following an ash deposition event. About 30 samples of fresh snow were collected in the upper part of the volcano, during the winters 2006 and 2007 to estimate deposition processes at high altitude during cold periods. Some of the samples were collected immediately after a major explosive event from the summit craters to understand the interaction between snow and fresh erupted ash. Sulphur, Chlorine and Fluorine, are the major elements that prevailingly characterize the volcanic contribution in atmospheric precipitation on Mount Etna, but high concentrations of many trace elements are also detected in the studied samples. In particular, bulk deposition samples display high concentration of Al, Fe, Ti, Cu, As, Rb, Pb, Tl, Cd, Cr, U and Ag, in the site most exposed to the volcanic emissions: median concentration values are about two orders of magnitude higher than those measured in our background site. Also in the snow samples the volcanic signature is clearly detectable and decreases with distance from the summit craters. Some of the analysed elements display very high enrichment values with respect to the average crust and, in the closest site to the summit craters, also deposition values higher than those measured in polluted urban or industrial sites.
    Description: Published
    Description: Vienna, Austria
    Description: 4.5. Degassamento naturale
    Description: open
    Keywords: Mt. Etna ; trace elements ; rainwater ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.07. Volcanic effects ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.03. Physical::03.03.01. Air/water/earth interactions ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.04. Chemical and biological::03.04.03. Chemistry of waters
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Oral presentation
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  • 76
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Geochemical investigations have shown that there is a considerable inflow of gas into both crater lakes of Monticchio, Southern Italy. These lakes are located in two maars that formed 140 000 years ago during Mt. Vulture volcano s last eruptive activity. Isotopic analyses suggest that CO2 and helium are of magmatic origin; the latter displays 3He ⁄ 4He isotope ratios similar to those measured in olivines of the maar ejecta. In spite of the fact that the amount of dissolved gases in the water is less than that found in Lake Nyos (Cameroon), both the results obtained and the historical reports studied indicate that these crater lakes could be highly hazardous sites, even though they are located in a region currently considered inactive. This could be of special significance in very popular tourist areas such as the Monticchio lakes, which are visited by about 30 000 people throughout the summer, for the most part on Sundays.
    Description: Published
    Description: 83-87
    Description: 2.4. TTC - Laboratori di geochimica dei fluidi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: volcanic gases ; gas hazard ; crater lakes ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.12. Fluid Geochemistry ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.01. Gases ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 77
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: On 2009 April 6, the Central Apennines were hit by an Mw = 6.3 earthquake. The region had been shaken since 2008 October by seismic activity that culminated in two foreshocks with Mw 〉 4, 1 week and a few hours before the main shock. We computed seismic moment tensors for 26 events with Mw between 3.9 and 6.3, using the Regional Centroid Moment Tensor (RCMT) scheme. Most of these source parameters have been computed within 1 hr after the earthquake and rapidly revised successively. The focal mechanisms are all extensional, with a variable and sometimes significant strike-slip component. This geometry agrees with the NE–SW extensional deformation of the Apennines, known from previous seismic and geodetic observations. Events group into three clusters. Those located in the southern area have larger centroid depths and a wider distribution of T-axis directions. These differences suggest that towards south a different fault systemwas activated with respect to the SW-dipping normal faults beneath L’Aquila and more to the north.
    Description: In press
    Description: 1.1. TTC - Monitoraggio sismico del territorio nazionale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: moment tensor ; seismotectonics ; L'Aquila ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.04. Plate boundaries, motion, and tectonics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 78
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Improving the constraints on the atmospheric fate and depletion rates of acidic compounds persistently emitted by non-erupting (quiescent) volcanoes is important for quantitatively predicting the environmental impact of volcanic gas plumes. Here, we present new experimental data coupled with modelling studies to investigate the chemical processing of acidic volcanogenic species during tropospheric dispersion. Diffusive tube samplers were deployed at Mount Etna, a very active open-conduit basaltic volcano in eastern Sicily, and Vulcano Island, a closed-conduit quiescent volcano in the Aeolian Islands (northern Sicily). Sulphur dioxide (SO2), hydrogen sulphide (H2S), hydrogen chloride (HCl) and hydrogen fluoride (HF) concentrations in the volcanic plumes (typically several minutes to a few hours old) were repeatedly determined at distances from the summit vents ranging from 0.1 to ~10 km, and under different environmental conditions. At both volcanoes, acidic gas concentrations were found to decrease exponentially with distance from the summit vents (e.g., SO2 decreases from ~10,000 μg/m3 at 0.1 km from Etna’s vents down to ~7 _μg/m3 at ~10km distance), reflecting the atmospheric dilution of the plume within the acid gas-free background troposphere. Conversely, SO2/HCl, SO2/HF, and SO2/H2S ratios in the plume showed no systematic changes with plume aging, and fit source compositions within analytical error. Assuming that SO2 losses by reaction are small during short-range atmospheric transport within quiescent (ash-free) volcanic plumes, our observations suggest that, for these short transport distances, atmospheric reactions for H2S and halogens are also negligible. The one-dimensional model MISTRA was used to simulate quantitatively the evolution of halogen and sulphur compounds in the plume of Mt. Etna. Model predictions support the hypothesis of minor HCl chemical processing during plume transport, at least in cloud-free conditions. Larger variations in the modelled SO2/HCl ratios were predicted under cloudy conditions, due to heterogeneous chlorine cycling in the aerosol phase. The modelled evolution of the SO2/H2S ratios is found to be substantially dependent on whether or not the interactions of H2S with halogens are included in the model. In the former case, H2S is assumed to be oxidized in the atmosphere mainly by OH, which results in minor chemical loss for H2S during plume aging and produces a fair match between modelled and measured SO2/H2S ratios. In the latter case, fast oxidation of H2S by Cl leads to H2S chemical lifetimes in the early plume of a few seconds, and thus SO2 to H2S ratios that increase sharply during plume transport. This disagreement between modelled and observed plume compositions suggests that more in-detail kinetic investigations are required for a proper evaluation of H2S chemical processing in volcanic plumes.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1441-1450
    Description: 1.2. TTC - Sorveglianza geochimica delle aree vulcaniche attive
    Description: 4.5. Degassamento naturale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Mt. Etna ; volcanic gas plumes ; tropospheric processing ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.07. Volcanic effects
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 79
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We perform an analysis on the dissipative Olami-Feder-Christensen model on a small world topology considering avalanche size differences. We show that when criticality appears, the probability density functions (PDFs) for the avalanche size differences at different times have fat tails with a q-Gaussian shape. This behavior does not depend on the time interval adopted and is found also when considering energy differences between real earthquakes. Such a result can be analytically understood if the sizes (released energies) of the avalanches (earthquakes) have no correlations. Our findings support the hypothesis that a self-organized criticality mechanism with long-range interactions is at the origin of seismic events and indicate that it is not possible to predict the magnitude of the next earthquake knowing those of the previous ones.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2.3. TTC - Laboratori di chimica e fisica delle rocce
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: SOC, earthquakes interaction ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 80
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Stick-slip dynamic instability is a key mechanism governing frictional processes from microscale physics to earthquake faults and landslides; yet challenging questions are stil open about its nucleation and propagation dynamics. We present novel observations on laboratory experimental faults where spontaneously nucleating fractures are produced, describing (1) an initial quasistatic, stable rupture front accelerating to subshear and then intersonic velocity; 2) the arisal of a higher degree of complexity when the friction to prestress ratio is increased on the sliding surface. The complex behaviour includes stop and go sequences, irregular proportion and rerupturing episodes within short-time intervals, implying rapid restrengthening of the surface and the formation of self-healing pulses, reproducing experimentally for the first time a behaviour observed on seismic faults.
    Description: Published
    Description: 697-702
    Description: 2.3. TTC - Laboratori di chimica e fisica delle rocce
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Fractures and flow; friction; earthquake dynamics; Dynamics and mechanics of faulting ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.06. Rheology, friction, and structure of fault zones
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 81
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: After some short test surveys, during the 2004–2005 summer expedition in Antarctica, a geomagnetic French-Italian observatory was installed on the plateau (geographic coordinates: 75.1 S, 123.4 E; corrected geomagnetic coordinates: 88.9 S, 54.3 E; UT=LT−8) very close to the geomagnetic pole. In this paper we present some peculiarities of the daily variation as observed at this polar cap observatory during the years 2005 and 2006, taking into account the different Loyd seasons and different interplanetary magnetic field conditions. Some interesting results emerge from the analysis, confirming the dependence of the daily variation (and of the associated polar current systems) on the IMF Bz and By components. In particular the analysis showed that different Bz conditions correspond to different contribution to daily variation of ionospheric and field aligned currents, while particular By conditions lead to a time shift of the diurnal variation, indicating an asymmetry with respect to the noon meridian.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2045–2051
    Description: 3.9. Fisica della magnetosfera, ionosfera e meteorologia spaziale
    Description: 1.6. Osservazioni di geomagnetismo
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Geomagnetism and paleomagnetism (Time variations, diurnal to secular) ; Magnetospheric physics (Polar cap phenomena; Solar wind-magnetosphere interactions) ; 01. Atmosphere::01.03. Magnetosphere::01.03.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 82
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The strong motion data of 2009 April 6 L’Aquila (Central Italy) earthquake (Mw = 6.3) and of 12 aftershocks (4.1 ≤ Mw ≤ 5.6) recorded by 56 stations of the Italian strong motion network are spectrally analysed to estimate the source parameters, the seismic attenuation, and the site amplification effects. The obtained source spectra for S wave have stress drop values ranging from 2.4 to 16.8 MPa, being the stress drop of the main shock equal to 9.2 MPa. The spectral curves describing the attenuation with distance show the presence of shoulders and bumps, mainly around 50 and 150 km, as consequence of significant reflected and refracted arrivals from crustal interfaces. The attenuation in the first 50 km is well described by a quality factor equal to Q( f ) = 59 f 0.56 obtained by fixing the geometrical spreading exponent to 1. Finally, the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio provides unreliable estimates of local site effects for those stations showing large amplifications over the vertical component of motion.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1573–1579
    Description: 4.1. Metodologie sismologiche per l'ingegneria sismica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Generalized inversion ; strong-motion ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.04. Ground motion
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 83
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The Montalbano Jonico (MJ) section, cropping out in Southern Italy, represents a potential candidate to define the Lower/Middle Pleistocene boundary and it has been proposed as a suitable Global Stratotype Section and Point (GSSP) of the Ionian Stage (Middle Pleistocene). The MJ section is the only continuous benthic and planktonic δ18O on-land reference in the Mediterranean area for the Mid-Pleistocene transition, spanning an interval between about 1240 and 645 ka. Combined biostratigraphy and sapropel chronology, tephra stratigraphy and complete high-resolution benthic and planktonic foraminiferal stable oxygen isotope records already provide a firm chronostratigraphic framework for the MJ section. However, magnetostratigraphy was still required to precisely locate the Brunhes-Matuyama transition and to mark the GSSP for the Ionian stage. We carried out a palaeomagnetic study of a subsection (Ideale section) of the MJ composite section, sampling 61 oriented cores from 56 stratigraphic levels spread over a ca. 80-m-thick stratigraphic interval that correlates to the oxygen isotopic stage 19 and should therefore include the Brunhes-Matuyama reversal. The palaeomagnetic data indicate a stable and almost single-component natural remanent magnetization (NRM). A characteristic remanent magnetization (ChRM) was clearly identified by stepwise demagnetization of the NRM. The ChRM declination values vary around 0◦ and the ChRM inclination around the expected value (59◦) for a geocentric axial dipole field at the sampling locality. This result indicates that the section has been remagnetized during the Brunhes Chron. A preliminary study of 27 additional not azimuthally oriented hand samples, collected at various levels from other parts of the MJ composite section, indicates that all the samples are of normal polarity and demonstrates that the remagnetization is widespread across the whole exposed stratigraphic sequence. A series of specific rock magnetic techniques were then applied to investigate the nature of the main magnetic carrier in the study sediments, and they suggest that the main magnetic mineral in the MJ section is the iron sulphide greigite (Fe3S4). Scanning electron microscope observations and elemental microanalysis reveal that greigite occurs both as individual euhedral crystals and in iron sulphides aggregates filling voids in the clay matrix. Therefore, we infer that the remagnetization of the section is due to the late-diagenetic growth of greigite under reducing conditions, most likely resulting in the almost complete dissolution of the original magnetic minerals. Iron sulphide formation in the MJ section can be linked to migration of mineralized fluids. Our inferred timing of the remagnetization associated with greigite growth represents the longest remanence acquisition delay documented in greigite-bearing clays of the Italian peninsula so far.
    Description: In press
    Description: 2.2. Laboratorio di paleomagnetismo
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Remagnetization ; 04. Solid Earth::04.05. Geomagnetism::04.05.06. Paleomagnetism ; 04. Solid Earth::04.05. Geomagnetism::04.05.07. Rock magnetism
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 84
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We present a high-resolution palaeomagnetic and rock magnetic study of two cores, MS06 and MS06-SW (6.7 and 1.1 m long, respectively), collected at 72 m below sea level in the Augusta Bay shelf (Eastern Sicily, Ionian Sea, Italy) about 2.3 kmfrom the coastline. Geophysical surveying carried out in the sampling area highlighted the presence of a homogeneous sedimentary sequence that most likely was deposited after the Last Glacial Maximum and was not affected by anthropogenic disturbances. The two cores penetrated a monotonous mud sedimentary sequence, interrupted at ∼3 m depth by a 3–4-cm-thick volcanic sandy layer that is correlated with the tephra fallout deposit produced by the 122 BC plinian eruption of Mt Etna. This tephra, along with radiocarbon dating of nine marine shells and with radioactive tracers for the uppermost 0.3 m (210Pb and 137Cs), provide the chronological constraints for the stratigraphic sequence that resulted younger than 4500 yr BP. Palaeomagnetic and rock magnetic data show that the sample sequence is magnetically homogeneous. A single peak of high magnetic mineral concentration is present and corresponds to the volcanic sandy layer. Palaeomagnetic data allowed the identification of a well-defined characteristic remanent magnetization that provides a high-resolution record of palaeosecular variation (PSV) at the sampling site. The reconstructed PSV curve is in good agreement with the available regional reference PSV curves and with the prediction from recent PSV modelling for Europe. The palaeomagnetic data obtained in this study on the one hand support and refine the age model for the cores, derived from other independent constraints, and on the other hand provide an original high-resolution PSV curve that can serve as a reference for the central Mediterranean over the last 4 ka.
    Description: In press
    Description: 2.2. Laboratorio di paleomagnetismo
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Palaeomagnetic secular variation ; Palaeointensity ; Marine magnetics and palaeomagnetics ; Europe ; 04. Solid Earth::04.05. Geomagnetism::04.05.02. Geomagnetic field variations and reversals ; 04. Solid Earth::04.05. Geomagnetism::04.05.06. Paleomagnetism
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 85
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The connection between Tropical Pacific and North Pacific variability is investigated in a state-of-the art coupled ocean-atmosphere model, comparing two 20th century simulations at T30 and T106 atmospheric horizontal resolutions. Despite a better simulation of the frequency and the spatial distribution of the Tropical Pacific anomalies associated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the high-resolution experiment, the response in the North Pacific is scarcely different from the low-resolution experiment where the ENSO variability is weaker and at higher than observed frequency. In the North Pacific, the response of surface atmospheric fields to the variability in the Tropical Pacific appears to be affected by local coupling processes significantly different in the two experiments. The coupling between sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Pacific as well as the influence of the Tropical Pacific SST has been measured here by means of the ‘coupled manifold’ technique. In the low-resolution case the SLP variances linked to the fraction of North Pacific SST not influenced by the Tropical Pacific are weak suggesting that the remote influence is strong, consistently with the observations. On the contrary, in the high-resolution experiment the fractions and the patterns of the SLP variances due to the Tropical Pacific SST and those linked to the North Pacific SST are comparable. In the latter case, model systematic errors in the northwestern Pacific influences the local coupling processes thus triggering the remote response. We conclude that an increased atmospheric horizontal resolution does not reduce the coupled model systematic errors in the representation of the teleconnection between the North and the Tropical Pacific and that the validation of coupled models has to consider both remote and local processes.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1640-1653
    Description: 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Tropical Pacific-North Pacific teleconnection ; ENSO ; coupled GCMs ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.04. Processes and Dynamics ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.03. Global climate models
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 86
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Edifice instability, that can result in catastrophic flank collapse, is a fundamental volcanic hazard. The subvolcanic basement can encourage such instability, especially if it is susceptible to mechanical weakening by devolatilization reactions near magmatic temperatures. For this reason, understanding how the physical and chemical properties of representative lithologies deteriorate at high temperatures is potentially highly relevant for volcanic hazard mitigation. This is particularly true for sedimentary rock, commonly found underlying volcanic edifices worldwide, that undergo rapid deterioration even under modest temperatures. Therefore, here we present the first experimental study of devolatilization reactions, induced by magmatic temperatures, on sedimentary rock comprising a subvolcanic basement. Our results show that, for a marly limestone representative of the basement at Mt Etna, devolatilization reactions, namely the dehydroxylation of clay minerals and the decarbonation of calcium carbonate, result in a dramatic reduction of mechanical strength and seismic velocities. These temperature-driven reactions can promote volcanic instability at stresses much lower than previously estimated.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1073–1077
    Description: 2.3. TTC - Laboratori di chimica e fisica delle rocce
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Phase transitions ; Experimental volcanism ; 04. Solid Earth::04.01. Earth Interior::04.01.04. Mineral physics and properties of rocks
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 87
    Publication Date: 2017-04-03
    Description: With the continued growth in availability of DInSAR and GPS data, space based geodesy has been widely applied to image the coseismic displacement field and to retrieve the static dislocation over the fault plane for almost all the significant earthquakes of the past two decades. This is performed by linear data inversion over a set of subfaults, generally characterized by a constant and predefined or manually adjusted dimensions. In this paper we propose a new algorithm to automatically retrieve an optimized fault subdivision in the linear inversion of coseismic geodetic data. The code iteratively keeps the parameter resolution close to a predefined high value. We first discuss the rationale supporting our algorithm and, after a detailed description of its implementation, we analyze the advantages of its introduction in the data inversion. The algorithm was tested against an exhaustive range of synthetic and real datasets and fault mechanisms. Among them, we present the results for the Mw 6.2, 2009 L’Aquila (Central Italy) earthquake and compare the new and previously published slip distributions showing the disappearance of misleading slip pattern and the increased resolution for shallower zones.
    Description: Published
    Description: 529-538
    Description: 1.10. TTC - Telerilevamento
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: fault modelling ; geodetic data inversion ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.07. Satellite geodesy
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 88
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The 2009 April 6, Mw= 6.3 L’Aquila earthquake occurred within a complex system of NW–SE trending normal faults in the Abruzzi Central Apennines (Italy). We analyse the coseismic deformation as measured by 〉70 global positioning system (GPS) stations, both from continuous and survey-mode networks, providing unprecedented details for a moderate normal faulting earthquake in Italy from GPS measurements. We use rectangular, uniform-slip, dislocations embedded in an elastic, homogeneous and isotropic half-space and a constrained, non-linear optimization algorithm, to solve for the best-fitting rectangular dislocation geometry and coseismic-slip distribution. We use a bootstrap approach to investigate uncertainties in the model parameters and define confidence bounds for all the inverted parameters. The rupture occurred on a N129°E striking and 50° southwestward dipping normal fault, in agreement with geological observations of surface breaks along the Paganica fault. Our distributed slip model exhibits a zone of relatively higher slip (〉60 cm) between ∼1.5 and ∼11 km depth, along a roughly downdip, NW–SE elongated patch, confined within the fault plane inverted assuming uniform-slip. The highest slip, of the order of ∼1 m, occurred on a ∼16 km2 area located at ∼5 km depth, SE of the mainshock epicentre. The analysis of model resolution suggests that slip at depth below ∼5 km can be resolved only at a spatial scale larger than 2 km, so a finer discretization of different asperities within the main patch of coseismic-slip is not allowed by GPS data. We compute the coseismic Coulomb stress changes in the crustal volume affected by the major aftershocks, and compare the results obtained from the uniform-slip and the heterogeneous-slip models. We find that most of the large aftershocks occurred in areas of Coulomb stress increase of 0.2–13 bar and that a deepening of the slip distribution down to a depth greater than 6 km in the SE part of the fault plane, in agreement with the inverted slip model, can explain the deepest, April 7, Mw 5.3 aftershock.
    Description: Published
    Description: 473-489
    Description: 1.9. Rete GPS nazionale
    Description: 3.2. Tettonica attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Satellite geodesy ; Space geodetic surveys ; Earthquake ground motions ; Earthquake source observations ; Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.01. Crustal deformations ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.07. Satellite geodesy ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.01. Earthquake faults: properties and evolution ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.06. Surveys, measurements, and monitoring
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 89
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We propose a method to introduce a refined representation of the ground motion in the framework of the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). This study is especially oriented to the incorporation of a priori information about source parameters, by focusing on the directivity effect and its influence on seismic hazard maps. Two strategies have been followed. One considers the seismic source as an extended source, and it is valid when the PSHA seismogenetic sources are represented as fault segments. We show that the incorporation of variables related to the directivity effect can lead to variations up to 30% of the hazard level, in terms of spectral acceleration response at 5 sec., exceeding probability of 10% in 50 years. The second one concerns the more general problem of the seismogenetic areas, where each point is a seismogenetic source having the same chance of enucleate a seismic event. In our proposition the point source is associated to the rupture-related parameters, defined using a statistical description. As an example, we consider a source point of an area characterized by strike slip faulting style. With the introduction of the directivity correction the modulation of the hazard map reaches values up to 100%. The introduction of directivity does not increase uniformly the hazard level, but acts more like a redistribution of the estimation that is consistent with the fault orientation. A general increase appears only when no a-priori information is available. However, nowadays good a-priori knowledge exists on style of faulting, dip and orientation of faults associated to the majority of the seismogenetic zones of the present seismic hazard maps. Following this method, all the information collected may be easily converted to obtain a more comprehensive and meaningful probabilistic Seismic Hazard formulation.
    Description: Published
    Description: 616-626
    Description: 4.1. Metodologie sismologiche per l'ingegneria sismica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Earthquake ground motion ; Earthquake source observation ; Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 90
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The occurrence of crystallized and glassy melt inclusions (MI) in high-grade, partially melted metapelites and metagraywackes has opened up new possibilities to investigate anatectic processes. The present study focuses on three case studies: khondalites from the Kerala Khondalite Belt (India), the Ronda migmatites (Spain), and the Barun Gneiss (Nepal Himalaya). The results of a detailed microstructural investigation are reported, along with some new microchemical data on the bulk composition of MI. These inclusions were trapped within peritectic garnet and ilmenite during crystal growth and are therefore primary inclusions. They are generally isometric and very small in size, mostly £15 lm, and only rarely reaching 30 lm; they occur in clusters. In most cases inclusions are crystallized ( nanogranites ) and contain a granitic phase assemblage with quartz, feldspar and one or two mica depending on the particular case study, commonly with accessory phases (mainly zircon, apatite, rutile). In many cases the polycrystalline aggregates that make up the nanogranites show igneous microstructures, e.g. granophyric intergrowths, micrographic quartz in K-feldspar and cuneiform rods of quartz in plagioclase. Further evidence for the former presence of melt within the investigated inclusions consists of melt pseudomorphs, similar to those recognized at larger scale in the host migmatites. Moreover, partially crystallized inclusions are locally abundant and together with very small (£8 lm) glassy inclusions may occur in the same clusters. Both crystallized and partially crystallized inclusions often display a diffuse nanoporosity, which may contain fluids, depending on the case study. After entrapment, inclusions underwent limited microstructural modifications, such as shape maturation, local necking down processes, and decrepitation (mainly in the Barun Gneiss), which did not influence their bulk composition. Re-homogenized nanogranites and glassy inclusions show a leucogranitic and peraluminous composition, consistent with the results of partial melting experiments on metapelites and metagraywackes. Anatectic MI should therefore be considered as a new and important opportunity to understand the partial melting processes.
    Description: Published
    Description: 303-322
    Description: 3.5. Geologia e storia dei vulcani ed evoluzione dei magmi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: garnet ; melt inclusions ; melt microstructures ; migmatites ; nanogranite ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.05. Mineralogy and petrology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 91
    Publication Date: 2017-04-03
    Description: Campi Flegrei collapse caldera (Italy) is a high-risk volcanic area located close to Naples and includes part of the densely populated city. This area is characterised by large up and down ground displacements. The last large uplift episode caused 3.5 m of cumulative vertical displacement at the centre of the town of Pozzuoli, during the period 1969–1984. Up and down ground movements in this area often occur without intercurring eruptions and are similar to what is observed at other calderas worldwide. Here, however, they appear more evident and amplified. Understanding the mechanism of such movements is crucial for hazard assessment and eruption forecast, mainly due to this densely populated area. This paper presents a detailed model for ground displacements due to deep fluid injection in shallower layers. Such a model explains in a natural way the occurrence of uplift and subsidence without eruptions. We show that it is possible to fit observed ground deformation in this area with a thermofluid dynamical model. The model obtained is also consistent with other observations like microgravity changes, changes in CO2 flux, etc. Here, we suggest that significant uplift and subsidence at calderas can be due to effects of deep fluid injections other than magma. At Campi Flegrei, however, a partial magmatic contribution at the origin of the observed episodes cannot be excluded.
    Description: Published
    Description: 833–847
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Numerical approximations and analysis; Hydrothermal systems; Explosive volcanism; Calderas ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 92
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Two direct search methods, simulated annealing and neighbourhood algorithm, are applied to the inversion of the viscosity profile of the mantle using relative sea level time-histories for the Hudson Bay region. In problems characterized by a low-dimensional model space (Nd = 2 in this study), the two inversion methods show comparable performances. When a larger number of dimensions is involved (specifically Nd = 6), we directly show that simulated annealing is less effective than neighbourhood algorithm in overcoming the obstacles that are found in the model space when our specific data set is employed. This study confirms that modifications of the conventional Monte Carlo inversion method, such as simulated annealing and neighbourhood algorithm, are viable tools to determine the viscosity profile of the mantle, which, until recently, has been mainly tackled by means of linearized techniques.
    Description: Published
    Description: 890-900
    Description: 3.3. Geodinamica e struttura dell'interno della Terra
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: mantle viscosity ; simulated annealing ; neighbourhood algorithm ; postglacial rebound ; 04. Solid Earth::04.01. Earth Interior::04.01.03. Mantle and Core dynamics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 93
    Publication Date: 2017-04-03
    Description: In the first part of this work, we make use of two non-parametric statistical pattern recognition algorithms and a multiple regression analysis to analyse seismic clusters occur ring around Mount Etna, Italy. The aim is to determine if the onset of flank eruptions at Mount Etna is linked to variations in the regional seismicity at a timescale of few weeks. From the analysis, we find that the discrimination between clusters preceding flank eruptions and clusters not related in time to flank activity is mainly linked to the volume output of the previous flank eruption, in some cases together with the time elapsed from its end. Instead, we do not find any difference in the seismicity features characterizing different types of clusters, except for a very small contribution of the number of seismic events in the clusters. This result does not confirm the existence, suggested in the past, of a direct link between the regional state of stress at a timescale of few weeks and the occurrence of flank eruptions on Mount Etna volcano. On the contrary, the result suggests that a prominent role in the flank eruption occur rence is played by the re-charging of the feeding system. In the second part of this study we analyse the relationship between the magma volume erupted in an eruption and the interevent time following it, finding that a ‘time-predictable model’ satisfactorily describes the occurrence of eruptions at Mount Etna in the last decades. The latter analysis is car ried out both on the flank eruption catalogue only, and on the complete catalogue of flank and summit eruptions, with comparable results.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1203–1218
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: flank eruptions ; Mount Etna volcano ; regional tectonic stress ; statistical pattern recognition ; time predictability ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 94
    Publication Date: 2017-04-03
    Description: In this paper, we present a significant update of the Italian present-day stress data compilation not only to improve the knowledge on the tectonic setting of the region or to constrain future geodynamic models, but also to understand the mechanics of processes linked to faulting and earthquakes. In this paper, we have analysed, revised and collected new contemporary stress data from borehole breakouts and we have assembled earthquake and fault data. In total, 206 new quality-ranked entries complete the definition of the horizontal stress orientation and tectonic regime in some areas, and bring new information mainly in Sicily and along the Apenninic belt. Now the global Italian data set consists of 715 data points, including 499 of A–C quality, representing an increase of 37 per cent compared to the previous compilation. The alignment of horizontal stresses measured in some regions, closely matches the ∼N–S first- order stress field orientation of ongoing relative crustal motions between Eurasia and Africa plates. The Apenninic belt shows a diffuse extensional stress regime indicating a ∼NE–SW direction of extension, that we interpret as related to a second-order stress field. The horizontal stress rotations observed in peculiar areas reflect a complex interaction between first-order stress field and local effects revealing the importance of the tectonic structure orientations. In particular, in Sicily the new data delineate a more complete tectonic picture evidencing adjacent areas characterized by distinct stress regime: northern offshore of Sicily and in the Hyblean plateau the alignment of horizontal stresses is consistent with the crustal motions, whereas different directions have been observed along the belt and foredeep.
    Description: Published
    Description: 705–716
    Description: 3.2. Tettonica attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Downhole methods; Seismicity and tectonics; Crustal structure; Europe. ; borehole breakouts, earthquakes, faults ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.05. Stress
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 95
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: In this study, we investigate the rupture history of the April 6th 2009 (Mw 6.1) L’Aquila normal faulting earthquake by using a nonlinear inversion of strong motion, GPS and DInSAR data. Both the separate and joint inversion solutions reveal a complex rupture process and a heterogeneous slip distribution. Slip is concentrated in two main asperities: a smaller shallow patch of slip located up-dip from the hypocenter and a second deeper and larger asperity located southeastward along strike direction. The key feature of the source process emerging from our inverted models concerns the rupture history, which is characterized by two distinct stages. The first stage begins with rupture nucleation and with up-dip propagation at relatively high (∼ 4.0 km/s), but still sub-shear, rupture velocity. The second stage starts nearly 2.0÷2.5 seconds after nucleation and it is characterized by the along strike rupture propagation. The largest and deeper asperity fails during this stage of the rupture process. The rupture velocity is larger in the up-dip than in the along-strike direction. The up-dip and along-strike rupture propagation are separated in time and associated with a Mode II and a Mode III crack, respectively. The comparison between the source models inferred in this study with the Poisson ratio anomalies in the crustal volume containing the fault plane (Di Stefano et al., 2011) allows the interpretation of the delay in along-strike rupture propagation in terms of a structural control of the rupture history. Our results show that the L’Aquila earthquake featured a very complex rupture, with strong spatial and temporal heterogeneities suggesting a strong frictional and/or structural control of the rupture process.
    Description: Published
    Description: 607-621
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Inverse theory;Earthquake dynamics;Earthquake ground motions;Earthquake source observations;Body waves;Rheology and friction of fault zones ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous
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  • 96
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The Pernicana Fault (PF) is the main structural element of Mt Etna and the northern boundary of a section sliding to the southeast. Observed ground motion records in the damage zone of the PF show strong variations of directional resonance in the horizontal plane. The observed resonance directions exhibit an abrupt rotation of azimuth by about 30◦ across the fault, varying from N166◦ on the north side to N139◦ on the south. We interpret the directional resonance observations in terms of changes in the kinematics and deformation fields on the opposite sides of the fault. The northern side is affected primarily by the left-lateral strike-slip movement, whereas the southern side, that is subjected also to sliding, is under a dominant extensional stress regime. Brittle deformation models based on the observed kinematic field predict different sets of fractures on the opposite sides of the fault: synthetic cleavages and extensional fractures are expected to dominate in the northern and southern sides, respectively. These two fracture fields have different orientations (N74◦ and N42◦, respectively) and both show a near-orthogonal relation (∼88◦ in the northern sector and ∼83◦ to the south) with the azimuth of the observed directional resonance. We conclude that the direction of the largest resonance motions is sensitive to and has transversal relationship with the dominant fracture orientation. The directional amplification is inferred to be produced by stiffness anisotropy of the fault damage zone, with larger seismic motions normal to the fractures.
    Description: Published
    Description: 986–996
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Earthquake ground motions; Site effects; Wave propagation ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.09. Waves and wave analysis
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  • 97
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We consider a seismicity forecast experiment conducted during the last 4 yr. At the beginning of each year, three models make a 1-yr forecast of the distribution of large earthquakes everywhere on the Earth. The forecasts are generated and the observations are collected in the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). We apply CSEP likelihood measures of consistency and comparison to see how well the forecasts match the observations, and we compare results from some intuitive reference models. These results illustrate some undesirable properties of the consistency tests: the tests can be extremely sensitive to only a few earthquakes, and yet insensitive to seemingly obvious flaws—a na ̈ıve hypothesis that large earthquakes are equally likely everywhere is not always rejected. The results also suggest that one should check the assumptions of the so-called T and W comparison tests, and we illustrate some methods to do so. As an extension of model assessment, we explore strategies to combine forecasts, and we discuss the implications for operational earthquake forecasting. Finally, we make suggestions for the next generation of global seismicity forecast experiments.
    Description: Published
    Description: 422-431
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: probabilistic forecasting ; statistical seismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability
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  • 98
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The M ∼ 7 1915 Fucino (Central Italy) earthquake represents one of the most destructive seismic events ever occurred in the Italian Peninsula. Several seismogenic faults have been proposed in the past decades as the source of the earthquake by means of different approaches and techniques that lead to a variety of speculations about the source mechanism and the fault location, often contrasting with one another. The 1915 earthquake produced a remarkable data set of 73 coseismic hydrological changes in the near and intermediate field that consist in variation of the flow of streams and springs, liquefaction, rise of water temperature and turbidity. In this paper, we study the coseismic water level changes induced by the 1915 earthquake in the near field to provide convincing clues on the geometry of the earthquake causative fault. We model the coseismic strain field induced by seventeen individual faults proposed through different approaches, and compare its pattern with the distribution of streamflow changes. We find: (i) clues on the most probable geometry of the earthquake causative fault. Best fits between modelled deformation and observed data are displayed by sources (derived by geological or seismological data) that share several distinctive features, as they are ∼135◦-striking, SW-dipping, 25–30-km-long normal faults located along the eastern side of the Fucino basin. These data point to the Serrone Fault and the Parasano Fault as the most likely causative structures and support the hypothesis that the coseismic ruptures observed in the field represented primary surface faulting. On the contrary, our calculations show that the Pescina Fault and the Ventrino Fault are secondary faults from the perspective of the hydrological response. Finally, one of the best scoring potential sources (from geological data) is a multifaulting system that considers the presence, in the central-western part of the basin, of fault splays synthetic and antithetic to the main seismogenic structures; therefore, we infer for these splays a possible active involvement in a 1915-like seismogenic process; (ii) evidence against a number of seismogenic structures that were previously associated with the earthquake. In particular, the plots of coseismic strain induced by sources uniquely derived by macroseismic or geodetic data prove to be inconsistent with the polarities of the hydrological signatures. Also, sources mainly characterized by reverse faulting and/or by right-lateral strike-slip component are discarded and (iii) as a final remark, we maintain that the study of the hydrological signatures of earthquake strain can offer an alternative tool in the investigation of the historical seismicity, to estimate the focal mechanism of major earthquakes capable of giving rise to a consistent data set of hydrological data.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1374-1388
    Description: 2T. Tettonica attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: 1915 Fucino earthquake ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous
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  • 99
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Macroseismic intensities are the only available data for most historical earthquakes and often represent the unique source of information for crucial events in the definition of seismic hazard. In this paper, we attempt at getting insight into source characteristics by reproducing the observed intensity field. As a test case, we study the source of 1908 Messina Straits earthquake ( M W = 7.1), by testing three distinct fault models deduced from the analysis of geodeticdata.Startingfromthestaticslipdistribution,wedevelop kinematicsourcemodelsfor the investigated fault and compute full waveform synthetic seismograms in a 1-D structural model, also accounting for anelastic attenuation. Then, we convert both computed peak- ground acceleration (PGA) and peak-ground velocity (PGV) to macroseismic intensity at 100 selected sites, by means of specific empirical relations for the Italian region. By comparing the original data separately with PGA- and PGV-based intensity fields, we discriminate among the tested faults and determine the best values for the investigated kinematic parameters of the source. We also perform a misfit analysis for the best source model, in order to investigate the dependence of the results on the selected parametrization. The results of the analysis indicate that among the tested models, the one characterized by an east-dipping fault, with strike- oriented NS slightly rotated clockwise, better explains the observed macroseismic field of the 1908 Messina Straits earthquake. Besides, the fracture nucleated at the southern end of the fault and ruptured northward, producing considerable directivity effects. This is in agreement with the published results obtained from the investigation of the historical seismograms. We alsodeterminerealisticvalues fortherupturevelocityand therise-time.Ourstudyconfirms the greatpotentialofthemacroseismicdata,demonstratingthattheycontainenoughinformationto constrain important characteristics of the fault, which can be retrieved by using complex source models and computing complete wavefield. Moreover, we also show that the simultaneous comparison of both PGA- and PGV-based synthetic macroseismic fields with the original intensities provides tighter constraints for discriminating among different source models, with respect to what attainable from each of them
    Description: Published
    Description: 164-173
    Description: 4T. Fisica dei terremoti e scenari cosismici
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Earthquake ground motions; Earthquake source observations. ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 100
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We analyzed a broad region around L’Aquila in search of seismogenic faults similar to that responsible for the 6 April 2009 earthquake (Mw 6.3). Having the lessons learned from this earthquake in mind, we focused on adjacent areas displaying similar morphotectonic, geological and structural evidence. The basin running from Barisciano to Civitaretenga-Navelli, notably located near the southeastern edge of the 2009 aftershock pattern, appears to be one of such areas. We collected morphotectonic and structural data indicating that this basin is underlain by a major active normal fault (San Pio Fault). All the observations are very much reminiscent of the morphotectonic, geological and structural setting of area struck by the L’Aquila earthquake, suggesting that the newly identified fault has the potential for a Mw 6.2-6.4 shock.
    Description: Published
    Description: Pages: 108–115
    Description: 3.2. Tettonica attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: partially_open
    Keywords: Seismotectonics ; Morphotectonics ; Active fault ; San Pio basin ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.03. Geomorphology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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