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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2024-02-06
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉The total meridional heat transport (MHT) is relatively stable across different climates. Nevertheless, the strength of individual processes contributing to the total transport are not stable. Here we investigate the MHT and its main components especially in the atmosphere, in five coupled climate model simulations from the Deep‐Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP). These simulations target the early Eocene climatic optimum, a geological time period with high CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 concentrations, analog to the upper range of end‐of‐century CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 projections. Preindustrial and early Eocene simulations, at a range of CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 levels are used to quantify the MHT changes in response to both CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 and non‐CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 related forcings. We found that atmospheric poleward heat transport increases with CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉, while oceanic poleward heat transport decreases. The non‐CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 boundary conditions cause more MHT toward the South Pole, mainly through an increase in the southward oceanic heat transport. The changes in paleogeography increase the heat transport via transient eddies at the northern mid‐latitudes in the Eocene. The Eocene Hadley cells do not transport more heat poleward, but due to the warmer atmosphere, especially the northern cell, circulate more heat in the tropics, than today. The monsoon systems' poleward latent heat transport increases with rising CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 concentrations, but this change is counterweighted by the globally smaller Eocene monsoon area. Our results show that the changes in the monsoon systems' latent heat transport is a robust feature of CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 warming, which is in line with the currently observed precipitation increase of present day monsoon systems.〈/p〉
    Description: Plain Language Summary: In the Earth's climate system both the atmosphere and the ocean are transporting heat through different processes from the tropics toward the poles. We investigate the transport of the atmosphere in several climate model set ups, which aim to simulate the very warm climate of the early Eocene (∼56–48 Myr ago). This period is relevant, because the atmospheric CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 concentration was close to our pessimistic projection of CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 concentration for the end of the century. In our study we separate the results into transport changes due to the different set up of the Eocene, and transport changes due to larger CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 concentration values. We found that with rising CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 values the atmosphere transports more heat from the tropics to the poles. The different location of the continents and seas is influencing the heat transport of the midlatitude cyclones. The Eocene tropical meridional overturning circulation's poleward heat transport does not increase, but it circulates more heat than today. The monsoon systems seem to be affecting a globally smaller area in the Eocene, but they are also more effective in transporting heat. This conclusion is in line with the observation, that current day monsoon systems' precipitation increases, as our CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 concentration rises.〈/p〉
    Description: Key Points: 〈list list-type="bullet"〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉The latent heat transport of the monsoon increases through the Eocene higher CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 concentration, but it is reduced by the Eocene topography〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉The poleward heat transport of midlatitude cyclones is higher in the Northern Hemisphere in the Eocene, due to the different topography〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉The Eocene northern Hadley cell circulates more heat, than in the present, while its net poleward heat transport is even less than today〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈/list〉 〈/p〉
    Description: Hessisches Ministerium für Wissenschaft und Kunst http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100003495
    Description: National Science Fundation
    Description: Swedish Research Council
    Description: NERC SWEET
    Description: Kakenhi
    Description: National Center for Atmospheric Research
    Description: Australian Research Council
    Description: https://www.deepmip.org/data-eocene/
    Description: https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.6860a573
    Description: https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.f17050d7
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7958397
    Description: 551.6
    Keywords: meridional heat transport ; early Eocene climatic optimum ; paleoclimate ; monsoon ; CO2 effect ; DeepMIP
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:article
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  • 2
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    ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
    In:  EPIC3Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans, ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV, 50(1), pp. 55-77, ISSN: 0377-0265
    Publication Date: 2018-12-07
    Description: A semi-analytical model of the Panama throughflow is presented. The model expresses the throughflow transport as a function of deep water formation in the North Pacific and in the North Atlantic, and of the Panama Gateway depth. The model is derived from the integral of the momentum equation along a circumpolar path, and can be interpreted from the point of view of the vorticity balance. The important conditions are whether the deep water, whose location is considered to be above the bottom water formed around Antarctica, originates from the North Atlantic or from the North Pacific, and whether the Panama Gateway is shallower than the lower boundary of the deep water. The present model indicates that the barotropic transport through the Panama Gateway is eastward, except for the case where the deep water is formed in the North Pacific and the sill of the Panama Gateway is shallow. The baroclinic structure of the Panama throughflow depends on whether the deep water is formed in the North Pacific or in the North Atlantic. These qualitative implications of the model are consistent with recent numerical studies and proxy-based paleoceanographic studies. Numerical experiments performed in the present study reinforce confidence in the semi-analytical model.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2018-12-07
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2021-02-16
    Description: Thermodynamic arguments imply that global mean rainfall increases in a warmer atmosphere; however, dynamical effects may result in more significant diversity of regional precipitation change. Here we investigate rainfall changes in the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (~ 3 Ma), a time when temperatures were 2–3ºC warmer than the pre-industrial era, using output from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Projects phases 1 and 2 and sensitivity climate model experiments. In the Mid-Pliocene simulations, the higher rates of warming in the northern hemisphere create an interhemispheric temperature gradient that enhances the southward cross-equatorial energy flux by up to 48%. This intensified energy flux reorganizes the atmospheric circulation leading to a northward shift of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone and a weakened and poleward displaced Southern Hemisphere Subtropical Convergences Zones. These changes result in drier-than-normal Southern Hemisphere tropics and subtropics. The evaluation of the mid-Pliocene adds a constraint to possible future warmer scenarios associated with differing rates of warming between hemispheres.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2021-02-16
    Description: A range of future climate scenarios are projected for high atmospheric CO2 concentrations, given uncertainties over future human actions as well as potential environmental and climatic feedbacks. The geological record offers an opportunity to understand climate system response to a range of forcings and feedbacks which operate over multiple temporal and spatial scales. Here, we examine a single interglacial during the late Pliocene (KM5c, ca. 3.205±0.01 Ma) when atmospheric CO2 exceeded pre-industrial concentrations, but were similar to today and to the lowest emission scenarios for this century. As orbital forcing and continental configurations were almost identical to today, we are able to focus on equilibrium climate system response to modern and near-future CO2. Using proxy data from 32 sites, we demonstrate that global mean sea-surface temperatures were warmer than pre-industrial values, by ∼2.3°C for the combined proxy data (foraminifera Mg∕Ca and alkenones), or by ∼3.2–3.4°C (alkenones only). Compared to the pre-industrial period, reduced meridional gradients and enhanced warming in the North Atlantic are consistently reconstructed. There is broad agreement between data and models at the global scale, with regional differences reflecting ocean circulation and/or proxy signals. An uneven distribution of proxy data in time and space does, however, add uncertainty to our anomaly calculations. The reconstructed global mean sea-surface temperature anomaly for KM5c is warmer than all but three of the PlioMIP2 model outputs, and the reconstructed North Atlantic data tend to align with the warmest KM5c model values. Our results demonstrate that even under low-CO2 emission scenarios, surface ocean warming may be expected to exceed model projections and will be accentuated in the higher latitudes.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2021-07-01
    Description: Palaeoclimate simulations improve our understanding of the climate, inform us about the performance of climate models in a different climate scenario, and help to identify robust features of the climate system. Here, we analyse Arctic warming in an ensemble of 16 simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP), derived from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2). The PlioMIP2 ensemble simulates Arctic (60–90 °N) annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) increases of 3.7 to 11.6 °C compared to the pre-industrial period, with a multi-model mean (MMM) increase of 7.2 °C. The Arctic warming amplification ratio relative to global SAT anomalies in the ensemble ranges from 1.8 to 3.1 (MMM is 2.3). Sea ice extent anomalies range from −3.0 to −10.4×106 km2, with a MMM anomaly of −5.6×106 km2, which constitutes a decrease of 53 % compared to the pre-industrial period. The majority (11 out of 16) of models simulate summer sea-ice-free conditions (≤1×106 km2) in their mPWP simulation. The ensemble tends to underestimate SAT in the Arctic when compared to available reconstructions, although the degree of underestimation varies strongly between the simulations. The simulations with the highest Arctic SAT anomalies tend to match the proxy dataset in its current form better. The ensemble shows some agreement with reconstructions of sea ice, particularly with regard to seasonal sea ice. Large uncertainties limit the confidence that can be placed in the findings and the compatibility of the different proxy datasets. We show that while reducing uncertainties in the reconstructions could decrease the SAT data–model discord substantially, further improvements are likely to be found in enhanced boundary conditions or model physics. Lastly, we compare the Arctic warming in the mPWP to projections of future Arctic warming and find that the PlioMIP2 ensemble simulates greater Arctic amplification than CMIP5 future climate simulations and an increase instead of a decrease in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strength compared to pre-industrial period. The results highlight the importance of slow feedbacks in equilibrium climate simulations, and that caution must be taken when using simulations of the mPWP as an analogue for future climate change.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2021-07-01
    Description: The Pliocene epoch has great potential to improve our understanding of the long-term climatic and environmental consequences of an atmospheric CO2 concentration near ∼400 parts per million by volume. Here we present the large-scale features of Pliocene climate as simulated by a new ensemble of climate models of varying complexity and spatial resolution based on new reconstructions of boundary conditions (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2; PlioMIP2). As a global annual average, modelled surface air temperatures increase by between 1.7 and 5.2 °C relative to the pre-industrial era with a multi-model mean value of 3.2 °C. Annual mean total precipitation rates increase by 7 % (range: 2 %–13 %). On average, surface air temperature (SAT) increases by 4.3 °C over land and 2.8 °C over the oceans. There is a clear pattern of polar amplification with warming polewards of 60°N and 60°S exceeding the global mean warming by a factor of 2.3. In the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, meridional temperature gradients are reduced, while tropical zonal gradients remain largely unchanged. There is a statistically significant relationship between a model's climate response associated with a doubling in CO2 (equilibrium climate sensitivity; ECS) and its simulated Pliocene surface temperature response. The mean ensemble Earth system response to a doubling of CO2 (including ice sheet feedbacks) is 67 % greater than ECS; this is larger than the increase of 47 % obtained from the PlioMIP1 ensemble. Proxy-derived estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperatures are used to assess model estimates of ECS and give an ECS range of 2.6–4.8°C. This result is in general accord with the ECS range presented by previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2021-07-01
    Description: In the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2), coupled climate models have been used to simulate an interglacial climate during the mid-Piacenzian warm period (mPWP; 3.264 to 3.025 Ma). Here, we compare the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), poleward ocean heat transport and sea surface warming in the Atlantic simulated with these models. In PlioMIP2, all models simulate an intensified mid-Pliocene AMOC. However, there is no consistent response in the simulated Atlantic ocean heat transport nor in the depth of the Atlantic overturning cell. The models show a large spread in the simulated AMOC maximum, the Atlantic ocean heat transport and the surface warming in the North Atlantic. Although a few models simulate a surface warming of ∼ 8–12 ∘C in the North Atlantic, similar to the reconstruction from Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) version 4, most models appear to underestimate this warming. The large model spread and model–data discrepancies in the PlioMIP2 ensemble do not support the hypothesis that an intensification of the AMOC, together with an increase in northward ocean heat transport, is the dominant mechanism for the mid-Pliocene warm climate over the North Atlantic.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Software , notRev
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2021-07-26
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2022-05-01
    Description: Despite tectonic conditions and atmospheric CO2 levels (pCO2) similar to those of present-day, geological reconstructions from the mid-Pliocene (3.3-3.0 Ma) document high lake levels in the Sahel and mesic conditions in subtropical Eurasia, suggesting drastic reorganizations of subtropical terrestrial hydroclimate during this interval. Here, using a compilation of proxy data and multi-model paleoclimate simulations, we show that the mid-Pliocene hydroclimate state is not driven by direct CO2 radiative forcing but by a loss of northern high-latitude ice sheets and continental greening. These ice sheet and vegetation changes are long-term Earth system feedbacks to elevated pCO2. Further, the moist conditions in the Sahel and subtropical Eurasia during the mid-Pliocene are a product of enhanced tropospheric humidity and a stationary wave response to the surface warming pattern, which varies strongly with land cover changes. These findings highlight the potential for amplified terrestrial hydroclimate responses over long timescales to a sustained CO2 forcing.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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