ALBERT

Notes: Observed responses of upland-oak vegetation of the eastern deciduous hardwood forest to changing CO2, temperature, precipitation and tropospheric ozone (O3) were derived from field studies and interpreted with a stand-level model for an 11-year range of environmental variation upon which scenarios of future environmental change were imposed. Scenarios for the year 2100 included elevated [CO2] and [O3] (+385 ppm and +20 ppb, respectively), warming (+4°C), and increased winter precipitation (+20% November–March). Simulations were run with and without adjustments for experimentally observed physiological and biomass adjustments.Initial simplistic model runs for single-factor changes in CO2 and temperature predicted substantial increases (+191% or 508 g C m−2 yr−1) or decreases (−206% or −549 g C m−2 yr−1), respectively, in mean annual net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEEa≈266±23 g C m−2 yr−1 from 1993 to 2003). Conversely, single-factor changes in precipitation or O3 had comparatively small effects on NEEa (0% and −35%, respectively). The combined influence of all four environmental changes yielded a 29% reduction in mean annual NEEa. These results suggested that future CO2-induced enhancements of gross photosynthesis would be largely offset by temperature-induced increases in respiration, exacerbation of water deficits, and O3-induced reductions in photosynthesis. However, when experimentally observed physiological adjustments were included in the simulations (e.g. acclimation of leaf respiration to warming), the combined influence of the year 2100 scenario resulted in a 20% increase in NEEa not a decrease. Consistent with the annual model's predictions, simulations with a forest succession model run for gradually changing conditions from 2000 to 2100 indicated an 11% increase in stand wood biomass in the future compared with current conditions.These model-based analyses identify critical areas of uncertainty for multivariate predictions of future ecosystem response, and underscore the importance of long term field experiments for the evaluation of acclimation and growth under complex environmental scenarios.

Notes: Global climates are changing rapidly and biological responses are becoming increasingly apparent. Here, we use empirical abundance patterns across an altitudinal gradient and predicted altitudinal range shifts to estimate change in total population size relative to distribution area in response to climate warming. Adopting this approach we predict that, for nine out of 12 species of regionally endemic birds, total population size will decline more rapidly than distribution area with increasing temperature. Two species showed comparable loss and one species exhibited a slower decline in population size with change in distribution area. Population size change relative to distribution area was greatest for those species that occurred at highest density in the middle of the gradient. The disproportional loss in population size reported here suggests that extinction risk associated with climate change can be more severe than that expected from decline in distribution area alone. Therefore, if we are to make accurate predictions of the impacts of climate change on the conservation status of individual species, it is crucial that we consider the spatial patterns of abundance within the distribution and not just the overall range of the species.

Notes: Species distributions are already affected by climate change. Forecasting their long-term evolution requires models with thoroughly assessed validation. Our aim here is to demonstrate that the sensitivity of such models to climate input characteristics may complicate their validation and introduce uncertainties in their predictions. In this study, we conducted a sensitivity analysis of a process-based tree distribution model Phenofit to climate input characteristics. This analysis was conducted for two North American trees which differ greatly in their distribution and eight different types of climate input for the historic period which differ in their spatial (local or gridded data) and temporal (daily vs. monthly) resolution as well as their type (locally recorded, extrapolated or simulated by General Circulation Models). We show that the climate data resolution (spatial and temporal) and their type, highly affect the model predictions. The sensitivity analysis also revealed, the importance, for global climate change impact assessment, of (i) the daily variability of temperatures in modeling the biological processes shaping species distribution, (ii) climate data at high latitudes and elevations and (iii) climate data with high spatial resolution.

Notes: The current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) default methodology (tier 1) for calculating nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from nitrogen applied to agricultural soils takes no account of either crop type or climatic conditions. As a result, the methodology omits factors that are crucial in determining current emissions, and has no mechanism to assess the potential impact of future climate and land-use change. Scotland is used as a case study to illustrate the development of a new methodology, which retains the simple structure of the IPCC tier 1 methodology, but incorporates crop- and climate-dependent emission factors (EFs). It also includes a factor to account for the effect of soil compaction because of trampling by grazing animals. These factors are based on recent field studies in Scotland and elsewhere in the UK. Under current conditions, the new methodology produces significantly higher estimates of annual N2O emissions than the IPCC default methodology, almost entirely because of the increased contribution of grazed pasture. Total emissions from applied fertilizer and N deposited by grazing animals are estimated at 10 662 t N2O-N yr−1 using the newly derived EFs, as opposed to 6 796 t N2O-N yr−1 using the IPCC default EFs. On a spatial basis, emission levels are closer to those calculated using field observations and detailed soil modelling than to estimates made using the IPCC default methodology. This can be illustrated by parts of the western Ayrshire basin, which have previously been calculated to emit 8–9 kg N2O-N ha−1 yr−1 and are estimated here as 6.25–8.75 kg N2O-N ha−1 yr−1, while the IPCC default methodology gives a maximum emission level of only 3.75 kg N2O-N ha−1 yr−1 for the whole area. The new methodology is also applied in conjunction with scenarios for future climate- and land-use patterns, to assess how these emissions may change in the future. The results suggest that by 2080, Scottish N2O emissions may increase by up to 14%, depending on the climate scenario, if fertilizer and land management practices remain unchanged. Reductions in agricultural land use, however, have the potential to mitigate these increases and, depending on the replacement land use, may even reduce emissions to below current levels.

Notes: The effects of atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition on organic matter decomposition vary with the biochemical characteristics of plant litter. At the ecosystem-scale, net effects are difficult to predict because various soil organic matter (SOM) fractions may respond differentially. We investigated the relationship between SOM chemistry and microbial activity in three northern deciduous forest ecosystems that have been subjected to experimental N addition for 2 years. Extractable dissolved organic carbon (DOC), DOC aromaticity, C : N ratio, and functional group distribution, measured by Fourier transform infrared spectra (FTIR), were analyzed for litter and SOM. The largest biochemical changes were found in the sugar maple–basswood (SMBW) and black oak–white oak (BOWO) ecosystems. SMBW litter from the N addition treatment had less aromaticity, higher C : N ratios, and lower saturated carbon, lower carbonyl carbon, and higher carboxylates than controls; BOWO litter showed opposite trends, except for carbonyl and carboxylate contents. Litter from the sugar maple–red oak (SMRO) ecosystem had a lower C : N ratio, but no change in DOC aromaticity. For SOM, the C : N ratio increased with N addition in SMBW and SMRO ecosystems, but decreased in BOWO; N addition did not affect the aromaticity of DOC extracted from mineral soil. All ecosystems showed increases in extractable DOC from both litter and soil in response to N treatment. The biochemical changes are consistent with the divergent microbial responses observed in these systems. Extracellular oxidative enzyme activity has declined in the BOWO and SMRO ecosystems while activity in the SMBW ecosystem, particularly in the litter horizon, has increased. In all systems, enzyme activities associated with the hydrolysis and oxidation of polysaccharides have increased. At the ecosystem scale, the biochemical characteristics of the dominant litter appear to modulate the effects of N deposition on organic matter dynamics.

Notes: Effective measures to counter the rising levels of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere require that we better understand the functioning of the global carbon cycle. Uncertainties about, in particular, the terrestrial carbon cycle's response to climate change remain high. We use a well-known stochastic inversion technique originally developed in nuclear physics, the Metropolis algorithm, to determine the full probability density functions (PDFs) of parameters of a terrestrial ecosystem model. By thus assimilating half-hourly eddy covariance measurements of CO2 and water fluxes, we can substantially reduce the uncertainty of approximately five model parameters, depending on prior uncertainties. Further analysis of the posterior PDF shows that almost all parameters are nearly Gaussian distributed, and reveals some distinct groups of parameters that are constrained together. We show that after assimilating only 7 days of measurements, uncertainties for net carbon uptake over 2 years for the forest site can be substantially reduced, with the median estimate in excellent agreement with measurements.

Notes: To estimate how tree photosynthesis modulates soil respiration, we simultaneously and continuously measured soil respiration and canopy photosynthesis over an oak-grass savanna during the summer, when the annual grass between trees was dead. Soil respiration measured under a tree crown reflected the sum of rhizosphere respiration and heterotrophic respiration; soil respiration measured in an open area represented heterotrophic respiration. Soil respiration was measured using solid-state CO2 sensors buried in soils and the flux-gradient method. Canopy photosynthesis was obtained from overstory and understory flux measurements using the eddy covariance method. We found that the diurnal pattern of soil respiration in the open was driven by soil temperature, while soil respiration under the tree was decoupled with soil temperature. Although soil moisture controlled the seasonal pattern of soil respiration, it did not influence the diurnal pattern of soil respiration. Soil respiration under the tree controlled by the root component was strongly correlated with tree photosynthesis, but with a time lag of 7–12 h. These results indicate that photosynthesis drives soil respiration in addition to soil temperature and moisture.

Notes: Atmospheric change may affect plant phenolic compounds, which play an important part in plant survival. Therefore, we studied the impacts of CO2 and O3 on the accumulation of 27 phenolic compounds in the short-shoot leaves of two European silver birch (Betula pendula Roth) clones (clones 4 and 80). Seven-year-old soil-grown trees were exposed in open-top chambers over three growing seasons to ambient and twice ambient CO2 and O3 concentrations singly and in combination in central Finland.Elevated CO2 increased the concentration of the phenolic acids (+25%), myricetin glycosides (+18%), catechin derivatives (+13%) and soluble condensed tannins (+19%) by increasing their accumulation in the leaves of the silver birch trees, but decreased the flavone aglycons (−7%) by growth dilution. Elevated O3 increased the concentration of 3,4′-dihydroxypropiophenone 3-β-d-glucoside (+22%), chlorogenic acid (+19%) and flavone aglycons (+4%) by inducing their accumulation possibly as a response to increased oxidative stress in the leaf cells. Nevertheless, this induction of antioxidant phenolic compounds did not seem to protect the birch leaves from detrimental O3 effects on leaf weight and area, but may have even exacerbated them. On the other hand, elevated CO2 did seem to protect the leaves from elevated O3 because all the O3-derived effects on the leaf phenolics and traits were prevented by elevated CO2. The effects of the chamber and elevated CO2 on some compounds changed over time in response to the changes in the leaf traits, which implies that the trees were acclimatizing to the altered environmental conditions. Although the two clones used possessed different composition and concentrations of phenolic compounds, which could be related to their different latitudinal origin and physiological characteristics, they responded similarly to the treatments. However, in some cases the variation in phenolic concentrations caused by genotype or chamber environment was much larger than the changes caused by either elevated CO2 or O3.

Notes: We investigated the effects of three elevated atmospheric CO2 levels on a Populus deltoides plantation at Biosphere 2 Laboratory in Oracle Arizona. Stable isotopes of carbon have been used as tracers to separate the carbon present before the CO2 treatments started (old C), from that fixed after CO2 treatments began (new C). Tree growth at elevated [CO2] increased inputs to soil organic matter (SOM) by increasing the production of fine roots and accelerating the rate of root C turnover. However, soil carbon content decreased as [CO2] in the atmosphere increased and inputs of new C were not found in SOM. Consequently, the rates of soil respiration increased by 141% and 176% in the 800 and 1200 μL L−1 plantations, respectively, when compared with ambient [CO2] after 4 years of exposure. However, the increase in decomposition of old SOM (i.e. already present when CO2 treatments began) accounted for 72% and 69% of the increase in soil respiration seen under elevated [CO2]. This resulted in a net loss of soil C at a rate that was between 10 and 20 times faster at elevated [CO2] than at ambient conditions. The inability to retain new and old C in the soil may stem from the lack of stabilization of SOM, allowing for its rapid decomposition by soil heterotrophs.

Notes: We took advantage of the distinctive system-level measurement capabilities of the Biosphere 2 Laboratory (B2L) to examine the effects of prolonged exposure to elevated [CO2] on carbon flux dynamics, above- and belowground biomass changes, and soil carbon and nutrient capital in plantation forest stands over 4 years. Annually coppiced stands of eastern cottonwoods (Populus deltoides) were grown under ambient (400 ppm) and two levels of elevated (800 and 1200 ppm) atmospheric [CO2] in carbon and N-replete soils of the Intensive Forestry Mesocosm in the B2L. The large semiclosed space of B2L uniquely enabled precise CO2 exchange measurements at the near ecosystem scale. Highly controllable climatic conditions within B2L also allowed for reproducible examination of CO2 exchange under different scales in space and time. Elevated [CO2] significantly stimulated whole-system maximum net CO2 influx by an average of 21% and 83% in years 3 and 4 of the experiment. Over the 4-year experiment, cumulative belowground, foliar, and total aboveground biomass increased in both elevated [CO2] treatments. After 2 years of growth at elevated [CO2], early season stand respiration was decoupled from CO2 influx aboveground, presumably because of accelerated fine root production from stored carbohydrates in the coppiced system prior to canopy development and to the increased soil carbohydrate status under elevated [CO2] treatments. Soil respiration was stimulated by elevated [CO2] whether measured at the system level in the undisturbed soil block, by soil collars in situ, or by substrate-induced respiration in vitro. Elevated [CO2] accelerated depletion of soil nutrients, phosphorus, calcium and potassium, after 3 years of growth, litter removal, and coppicing, especially in the upper soil profile, although total N showed no change. Enhancement of above- and belowground biomass production by elevated [CO2] accelerated carbon cycling through the coppiced system and did not sequester additional carbon in the soil.

Notes: Determining the spatial and temporal diversity of photosynthetic processes in forest canopies presents a challenge to the evaluation of biological feedbacks needed for improvement of carbon and climate models. Limited access with portable instrumentation, especially in the outer canopy, makes remote sensing of these processes a priority in experimental ecosystem and climate change research. Here, we describe the application of a new, active, chlorophyll fluorescence measurement system for remote sensing of light use efficiency, based on analysis of laser-induced fluorescence transients (LIFT). We used mature stands of Populus grown at ambient (380 ppm) and elevated CO2 (1220 ppm) in the enclosed agriforests of the Biosphere 2 Laboratory (B2L) to compare parameters of photosynthetic efficiency, photosynthetic electron transport, and dissipation of excess light measured by LIFT and by standard on-the-leaf saturating flash methods using a commercially available pulse-modulated chlorophyll fluorescence instrument (Mini-PAM). We also used LIFT to observe the diel courses of these parameters in leaves of two tropical forest dominants, Inga and Pterocarpus, growing in the enclosed model tropical forest of B2L. Midcanopy leaves of both trees showed the expected relationships among chlorophyll fluorescence-derived photosynthetic parameters in response to sun exposure, but, unusually, both displayed an afternoon increase in nonphotochemical quenching in the shade, which was ascribed to reversible inhibition of photosynthesis at high leaf temperatures in the enclosed canopy. Inga generally showed higher rates of photosynthetic electron transport, but greater afternoon reduction in photosynthetic efficiency. The potential for estimation of the contribution of outer canopy photosynthesis to forest CO2 assimilation, and assessment of its response to environmental stress using remote sensing devices such as LIFT, is briefly discussed.

Notes: Image sequence processing methods were applied to study the effect of elevated CO2 on the diel leaf growth cycle for the first time in a dicot plant. Growing leaves of Populus deltoides, in stands maintained under ambient and elevated CO2 for up to 4 years, showed a high degree of heterogeneity and pronounced diel variations of their relative growth rate (RGR) with maxima at dusk. At the beginning of the season, leaf growth did not differ between treatments. At the end of the season, final individual leaf area and total leaf biomass of the canopy was increased in elevated CO2. Increased final leaf area at elevated CO2 was achieved via a prolonged phase of leaf expansion activity and not via larger leaf size upon emergence. The fraction of leaves growing at 30–40% day−1 was increased by a factor of two in the elevated CO2 treatment. A transient minimum of leaf expansion developed during the late afternoon in leaves grown under elevated CO2 as the growing season progressed. During this minimum, leaves grown under elevated CO2 decreased their RGR to 50% of the ambient value. The transient growth minimum in the afternoon was correlated with a transient depletion of glucose (less than 50%) in the growing leaf in elevated CO2, suggesting diversion of glucose to starch or other carbohydrates, making this substrate temporarily unavailable for growth. Increased leaf growth was observed at the end of the night in elevated CO2. Net CO2 exchange and starch concentration of growing leaves was higher in elevated CO2. The extent to which the transient reduction in diel leaf growth might dampen the overall growth response of these trees to elevated CO2 is discussed.

Notes: The main determinants of soil respiration were investigated in 11 forest types distributed along an altitudinal and thermal gradient in the southern Italian Alps (altitudinal range 1520 m, range in mean annual temperature 7.8°C). Soil respiration, soil carbon content and principal stand characteristics were measured with standardized methods. Soil CO2 fluxes were measured at each site every 15–20 days with a closed dynamic system (LI-COR 6400) using soil collars from spring 2000 to spring 2002. At the same time, soil temperature at a depth of 10 cm and soil water content (m3 m−3) were measured at each collar. Soil samples were collected to a depth of 30 cm and stones, root content and bulk density were determined in order to obtain reliable estimates of carbon content per unit area (kg C m−2). Soil respiration and temperature data were fitted with a simple logistic model separately for each site, so that base respiration rates and mean annual soil respiration were estimated. Then the same regression model was applied to all sites simultaneously, with each model parameter being expressed as a linear function of site variables. The general model explained about 86% of the intersite variability of soil respiration. In particular, soil mean annual temperature explained the most of the variance of the model (0.41), followed by soil temperature interquartlile range (0.24), soil carbon content (0.16) and soil water content (0.05).

Notes: Two major components of global change: land-use changes and intentional or accidental species introduction are threatening the conservation of native species worldwide. In particular, Mediterranean coastal areas are highly susceptible to the invasion of alien species and they also have experienced major changes in land use such as agricultural abandonment and urbanization. However, there has been little research done which quantitatively links biological invasions and the components of land-use changes (i.e. number, trajectory and direction of the changes). We analysed the current distribution and abundance of Cortaderia selloana (Schultes et Schultes fil.) Asch. et Graebner, an alien ornamental species, in 332 fields in Aiguamolls de l'Empordà (Catalonia, NE Spain) and related the patterns of invasion to spatiotemporal data on land-use changes from 1956 to 2003. Our aim was to determine which land uses had been more susceptible to C. selloana invasion during the last 5 years and to find out which components of land-use changes triggered invasion. We found that 22.30% of the fields are currently invaded. In the last 5 years, fields have triplicated the total density of C. selloana. The presence of C. selloana decreases with the distance from urban areas. Invasion is over-represented in pastures and old-fields, and it has increased with time since abandonment. The presence of C. selloana was also associated to fields that had experienced many changes in land use in the last 46 years. The most heavily invaded fields were those that were pastures in 1956 and are now old fields in 2003. On average, the largest plants are found in agricultural field margins and in fields that had a disturbed land use both in 1956 and in 2003. Furthermore, pastures had the lowest proportion of reproductive plants. Overall, current C. selloana patterns of invasion can be explained by the historical legacy of land-use changes.

Notes: The disappearing glaciers of Kilimanjaro are attracting broad interest. Less conspicuous but ecologically far more significant is the associated increase of frequency and intensity of fires on the slopes of Kilimanjaro, which leads to a downward shift of the upper forest line by several hundred meters as a result of a drier (warmer) climate since the last century. In contrast to common belief, global warming does not necessarily cause upward migration of plants and animals. Here, it is shown that on Kilimanjaro the opposite trend is under way, with consequences more harmful than those due to the loss of the showy ice cap of Africa's highest mountain.

Notes: Intensification of agriculture since the 1950s has enhanced the availability, competitive ability, crude protein content, digestibility and extended growing seasons of forage grasses. Spilled cereal grain also provides a rich food source in autumn and in winter. Long-distance migratory herbivorous geese have rapidly exploited these feeding opportunities and most species have shown expansions in range and population size in the last 50 years. Results of long-term studies are presented from two Arctic-breeding populations, the Svalbard pink-footed goose and the Greenland white-fronted goose (GWFG). GWFGs have shown major habitat shifts since the 1950s from winter use of plant storage organs in natural wetlands to feeding on intensively managed farmland. Declines in local density on, and abandonment of, unmodified traditional wintering habitat and increased reproductive success among those birds wintering on farmland suggest that density-dependent processes were not the cause of the shift in this winter-site-faithful population. Based on enhanced nutrient and energy intake rates, we argue that observed shifts in both species from traditionally used natural habitats to intensively managed farmland on spring staging and wintering areas have not necessarily been the result of habitat destruction. Increased food intake rates and potential demographic benefits resulting from shifts to highly profitable foraging opportunities on increasingly intensively managed farmland, more likely explain increases in goose numbers in these populations. The geographically exploratory behaviour of subdominant individuals enables the discovery and exploitation of new winter feeding opportunities and hence range expansion. Recent destruction of traditional habitats and declines in farming at northern latitudes present fresh challenges to the well being of both populations. More urgently, Canada geese colonizing breeding and moulting habitats of white-fronted geese in Greenland are further affecting their reproductive output.

Notes: Forested histosols have been found in some cases to be major, and in other cases minor, sources of the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N2O). In order to estimate the total national or global emissions of N2O from histosols, scaling or mapping parameters that can separate low- and high-emitting sites are needed, and should be included in soil databases. Based on interannual measurements of N2O emissions from drained forested histosols in Sweden, we found a strong negative relationship between N2O emissions and soil CN ratios (r2adj=0.96, mean annual N2O emission=ae(−b CN ratio)). The same equation could be used to estimate the N2O emissions from Finnish and German sites based on CN ratios in published data. We envisage that the correlation between N2O emissions and CN ratios could be used to scale N2O emissions from histosols determined at sampled sites to national levels. However, at low CN ratios (i.e. below 15–20) other parameters such as climate, pH and groundwater tables increase in importance as regulating factors affecting N2O emissions.

Notes: Using phenological and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data from 1982 to 1993 at seven sample stations in temperate eastern China, we calculated the cumulative frequency of leaf unfolding and leaf coloration dates for deciduous species every 5 days throughout the study period. Then, we determined the growing season beginning and end dates by computing times when 50% of the species had undergone leaf unfolding and leaf coloration for each station year. Next, we used these beginning and end dates of the growing season as time markers to determine corresponding threshold NDVI values on NDVI curves for the pixels overlaying phenological stations. Based on a cluster analysis, we determined extrapolation areas for each phenological station in every year, and then implemented the spatial extrapolation of growing season parameters from the seven sample stations to all possible meteorological stations in the study area.Results show that spatial patterns of growing season beginning and end dates correlate significantly with spatial patterns of mean air temperatures in spring and autumn, respectively. Contrasting with results from similar studies in Europe and North America, our study suggests that there is a significant delay in leaf coloration dates, along with a less pronounced advance of leaf unfolding dates in different latitudinal zones and the whole area from 1982 to 1993. The growing season has been extended by 1.4–3.6 days per year in the northern zones and by 1.4 days per year across the entire study area on average. The apparent delay in growing season end dates is associated with regional cooling from late spring to summer, while the insignificant advancement in beginning dates corresponds to inconsistent temperature trend changes from late winter to spring. On an interannual basis, growing season beginning and end dates correlate negatively with mean air temperatures from February to April and from May to June, respectively.

Notes: Three European plant phenological network datasets were analysed for latitudinal and longitudinal gradients of nine phenological ‘seasons’ spanning the entire year. The networks were: (1) the historical first European Phenological Network (1882–1941) by Hoffmann & Ihne, (2) the network of the International Phenological Gardens in Europe (1959–1998), founded by Schnelle & Volkert in 1957 and based on cloned plants, and (3) a dataset (1951–1998) that was recently collated during the EU Fifth Framework project POSITIVE, which included network data of seven Central and Eastern European countries. Our study is most likely the first, for over a century, to analyse average onset and year-to-year variability of the progress of seasons across a continent. For early, mid, and late spring seasons we found a marked progress of the seasonal onset from SW to NE throughout Europe, more precisely from WSW to ENE in early spring, then from SW to NE and finally from SSW to NNE in late spring, as exhibited by the relationship between latitudinal and longitudinal gradients. The movement of summer was more south to north directed, as the longitudinal gradient (west–east component) strongly declined or was even of opposite sign. Autumn, as shown by leaf colouring dates, arrived from NE to SW. Possible reasons for the differences among the three datasets are discussed. The annual variability of latitudinal and longitudinal gradients of the seasons across Europe was closely related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index; in years with high NAO in both winter and spring, the west–east component of progress was more pronounced; in summer and autumn, the pattern of the seasons may be more uniform.

Notes: We forced a global terrestrial carbon cycle model by climate fields of 14 ocean and atmosphere general circulation models (OAGCMs) to simulate the response of terrestrial carbon pools and fluxes to climate change over the next century. These models participated in the second phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP2), where a 1% per year increase of atmospheric CO2 was prescribed. We obtain a reduction in net land uptake because of climate change ranging between 1.4 and 5.7 Gt C yr−1 at the time of atmospheric CO2 doubling. Such a reduction in terrestrial carbon sinks is largely dominated by the response of tropical ecosystems, where soil water stress occurs. The uncertainty in the simulated land carbon cycle response is the consequence of discrepancies in land temperature and precipitation changes simulated by the OAGCMs. We use a statistical approach to assess the coherence of the land carbon fluxes response to climate change. The biospheric carbon fluxes and pools changes have a coherent response in the tropics, in the Mediterranean region and in high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. This is because of a good coherence of soil water content change in the first two regions and of temperature change in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.Then we evaluate the carbon uptake uncertainties to the assumptions on plant productivity sensitivity to atmospheric CO2 and on decomposition rate sensitivity to temperature. We show that these uncertainties are on the same order of magnitude than the uncertainty because of climate change. Finally, we find that the OAGCMs having the largest climate sensitivities to CO2 are the ones with the largest soil drying in the tropics, and therefore with the largest reduction of carbon uptake.

Notes: The capacity of forest ecosystems to sequester C in the soil relies on the net balance between litter production above, as well as, below ground, and decomposition processes. Nitrogen mineralization and its availability for plant growth and microbial activity often control the speed of both processes. Litter production, decomposition and N mineralization are strongly interdependent. Thus, their responses to global environmental changes (i.e. elevated CO2, climate, N deposition, etc.) cannot be fully understood if they are studied in isolation. In the present experiment, we investigated litter fall, litter decomposition and N dynamics in decomposing litter of three Populus spp., in the second and third growing season of a short rotation coppice under FACE. Elevated CO2 did not affect annual litter production but slightly retarded litter fall in the third growing season. In all species, elevated CO2 lowered N concentration, resulting in a reduction of N input to the soil via litter fall, but did not affect lignin concentrations. Litter decomposition was studied in bags incubated in situ both in control and FACE plots. Litter lost between 15% and 18% of the original mass during the eight months of field incubation. On average, litter produced under elevated CO2 attained higher residual mass than control litter. On the other end, when litter was incubated in FACE plots it exhibited higher decay rates. These responses were strongly species-specific. All litter increased their N content during decomposition, indicating immobilization of N from external sources. Independent of the initial quality, litter incubated on FACE soils immobilized less N, possibly as a result of lower N availability in the soil. Indeed, our results refer to a short-term decomposition experiment. However, according to a longer-term model extrapolation of our results, we anticipate that in Mediterranean climate, under elevated atmospheric CO2, soil organic C pool of forest ecosystems may initially display faster turnover, but soil N availability will eventually limit the process.

Notes: We examined the effects of atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and soil moisture stress (SMS) on leaf- and stand-level CO2 exchange in model 3-year-old coppiced cottonwood (Populus deltoides Bartr.) plantations using the large-scale, controlled environments of the Biosphere 2 Laboratory. A short-term experiment was imposed on top of continuing, long-term CO2 treatments (43 and 120 Pa), at the end of the growing season. For the experiment, the plantations were exposed for 6–14 days to low and high VPD (0.6 and 2.5 kPa) at low and high volumetric soil moisture contents (25–39%). When system gross CO2 assimilation was corrected for leaf area, system net CO2 exchange (SNCE), integrated daily SNCE, and system respiration increased in response to elevated CO2. The increases were mainly as a result of the larger leaf area developed during growth at high CO2, before the short-term experiment; the observed decline in responses to SMS and high VPD treatments was partly because of leaf area reduction. Elevated CO2 ameliorated the gas exchange consequences of water stress at the stand level, in all treatments. The initial slope of light response curves of stand photosynthesis (efficiency of light use by the stand) increased in response to elevated CO2 under all treatments. Leaf-level net CO2 assimilation rate and apparent quantum efficiency were consistently higher, and stomatal conductance and transpiration were significantly lower, under high CO2 in all soil moisture and VPD combinations (except for conductance and transpiration in high soil moisture, low VPD). Comparisons of leaf- and stand-level gross CO2 exchange indicated that the limitation of assimilation because of canopy light environment (in well-irrigated stands; ratio of leaf : stand=3.2–3.5) switched to a predominantly individual leaf limitation (because of stomatal closure) in response to water stress (leaf : stand=0.8–1.3). These observations enabled a good prediction of whole stand assimilation from leaf-level data under water-stressed conditions; the predictive ability was less under well-watered conditions. The data also demonstrated the need for a better understanding of the relationship between leaf water potential, leaf abscission, and stand LAI.

Notes: Temperate forest ecosystems have recently been identified as an important net sink in the global carbon budget. The factors responsible for the strength of the sinks and their permanence, however, are less evident. In this paper, we quantify the present carbon sequestration in Thuringian managed coniferous forests. We quantify the effects of indirect human-induced environmental changes (increasing temperature, increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and nitrogen fertilization), during the last century using BIOME-BGC, as well as the legacy effect of the current age-class distribution (forest inventories and BIOME-BGC). We focused on coniferous forests because these forests represent a large area of central European forests and detailed forest inventories were available.The model indicates that environmental changes induced an increase in biomass C accumulation for all age classes during the last 20 years (1982–2001). Young and old stands had the highest changes in the biomass C accumulation during this period. During the last century mature stands (older than 80 years) turned from being almost carbon neutral to carbon sinks. In high elevations nitrogen deposition explained most of the increase of net ecosystem production (NEP) of forests. CO2 fertilization was the main factor increasing NEP of forests in the middle and low elevations.According to the model, at present, total biomass C accumulation in coniferous forests of Thuringia was estimated at 1.51 t C ha−1 yr−1 with an averaged annual NEP of 1.42 t C ha−1 yr−1 and total net biome production of 1.03 t C ha−1 yr−1 (accounting for harvest). The annual averaged biomass carbon balance (BCB: biomass accumulation rate-harvest) was 1.12 t C ha−1 yr−1 (not including soil respiration), and was close to BCB from forest inventories (1.15 t C ha−1 yr−1). Indirect human impact resulted in 33% increase in modeled biomass carbon accumulation in coniferous forests in Thuringia during the last century. From the forest inventory data we estimated the legacy effect of the age-class distribution to account for 17% of the inventory-based sink. Isolating the environmental change effects showed that these effects can be large in a long-term, managed conifer forest.

Notes: Climate change is predicted to be dramatic at high latitudes. Still, climate impact on high latitude lake ecosystems is poorly understood. We studied 15 subarctic lakes located in a climate gradient comprising an air temperature difference of about 6°C. We show that lake water productivity varied by one order of magnitude along the temperature gradient. This variation was mainly caused by variations in the length of the ice-free period and, more importantly, in the supply of organic carbon and inorganic nutrients, which followed differences in terrestrial vegetation cover along the gradient. The results imply that warming will have rapid effects on the productivity of high latitude lakes, by prolongation of ice-free periods. However, a more pronounced consequence will be a delayed stimulation of the productivity following upon changes of the lakes terrestrial surroundings and subsequent increasing input of elements that stimulate the production of lake biota.

Notes: Soil organic carbon (SOC) storage generally represents the long-term net balance of photosynthesis and total respiration in terrestrial ecosystems. However, soil erosion can affect SOC content by direct removal of soil and reduction of the surface soil depth; it also affects plant growth and soil biological activity, soil air CO2 concentration, water regimes, soil temperature, soil respiration, carbon flux to the atmosphere, and carbon deposition in soil. In arid and semi-arid region of northern China, wind erosion caused soil degradation and desert expansion. This paper estimated the SOC loss of the surface horizon at eroded regions based on soil property and wind erosion intensity data. The SOC loss in China because of wind erosion was about 75 Tg C yr−1 in 1990s. The spatial pattern of SOC loss indicates that SOC loss of the surface horizon increases significantly with the increase of soil wind erosion intensity. The comparison of SOC loss and annual net primary productivity (NPP) of terrestrial ecosystem was discussed in wind erosion regions of China. We found that NPP is also low in the eroded regions and heavy SOC loss often occurs in regions where NPP is very small. However, there is potential to improve our study to resolve uncertainty on the soil organic matter oxidation and soil deposition processes in eroded and deposited sites.

Notes: Impacts of ozone and CO2 enrichment, alone and in combination, on leaf anatomical and ultrastructural characteristics, nutrient status and cell wall chemistry in two European silver birch (Betula pendula Roth) clones were studied. The young soil-growing trees were exposed in open-top chambers over three growing seasons to 2 × ambient CO2 and/or ozone concentrations in central Finland. The trees were measured for changes in altogether 35 variables of leaf structure, nutrients and cell wall chemistry of green leaves, and 20 of the measured variables were affected by CO2 and/or O3. Elevated CO2 increased the size of chloroplasts and starch grains, number of mitochondria, P : N ratio, and contents of cell wall hemicellulose. Elevated CO2 decreased the total leaf thickness, specific leaf area, concentrations of N, K, Cu, S and Fe, and contents of cell wall α-cellulose, uronic acids, acid-soluble lignin and acetone-soluble extractives. Elevated ozone led to thinner leaves, higher palisade to spongy ratio, increased number of peroxisomes and mitochondria, reduced content of Mn, Zn, Cu, hemicellulose and uronic acids, and lower Mn : N and Zn : N ratios. In the combined exposure, interactions were antagonistic. Ultrastructural changes became more evident towards the end of the exposure. Young leaves were tolerant against ozone-caused oxidative stress, whereas oxidative H2O2 accumulation was found in older leaves. CO2 enrichment improved ozone tolerance not only through increased photosynthesis rates, but also through changes in cell wall chemistry (hemicellulose, in particular). However, nutrient imbalances due to ozone and/or CO2 may predispose the trees to other biotic and abiotic stresses. Down-regulation and up-regulation of photosynthesis under elevated CO2 through anatomical changes is discussed.

Notes: Global surface temperature is predicted to increase by 1.4–5.8°C by the end of this century. However, the impacts of this projected warming on soil C balance and the C budget of terrestrial ecosystems are not clear. One major source of uncertainty stems from warming effects on soil microbes, which exert a dominant influence on the net C balance of terrestrial ecosystems by controlling organic matter decomposition and plant nutrient availability. We, therefore, conducted an experiment in a tallgrass prairie ecosystem at the Great Plain Apiaries (near Norman, OK) to study soil microbial responses to temperature elevation of about 2°C through artificial heating in clipped and unclipped field plots. While warming did not induce significant changes in net N mineralization, soil microbial biomass and respiration rate, it tended to reduce extractable inorganic N during the second and third warming years, likely through increasing plant uptake. In addition, microbial substrate utilization patterns and the profiles of microbial phospholipid fatty acids (PLFAs) showed that warming caused a shift in the soil microbial community structure in unclipped subplots, leading to the relative dominance of fungi as evidenced by the increased ratio of fungal to bacterial PLFAs. However, no warming effect on soil microbial community structure was found in clipped subplots where a similar scale of temperature increase occurred. Clipping also significantly reduced soil microbial biomass and respiration rate in both warmed and unwarmed plots. These results indicated that warming-led enhancement of plant growth rather than the temperature increase itself may primarily regulate soil microbial response. Our observations show that warming may increase the relative contribution of fungi to the soil microbial community, suggesting that shifts in the microbial community structure may constitute a major mechanism underlying warming acclimatization of soil respiration.

Notes: Linking hydrologic interactions with global carbon cycling will reduce the uncertainty associated with scaling-up empirical studies and facilitate the incorporation of terrestrial–aquatic linkages within global and regional change models. Much of the uncertainty in estimates of carbon fluxes associated with precipitation and hydrologic transport results from the extensive spatial and temporal heterogeneity in both intrinsic functioning and anthropogenic modification of hydrological cycles. To better understand this variation we developed a landscape ecological approach to coupled hydrologic–carbon cycling that merges local mechanisms with multiple-scale spatial heterogeneity. This spatially explicit framework is applied to examine variability in hydrologic influences on carbon cycling along a continental scale water availability gradient with an explicit consideration of human sources of variability. Hydrologic variation is an important component of the uncertainty in carbon cycling; accounting for this variation will improve understanding of current conditions and projections of future ecosystem responses to global change.

Notes: Sap-feeding insects such as aphids are the only insect herbivores that show positive responses to elevated CO2. Recent models predict that increased nitrogen will increase aphid population size under elevated CO2, but few experiments have tested this idea empirically. To determine whether soil nitrogen (N) availability modifies aphid responses to elevated CO2, we tested the performance of Macrosiphum euphorbiae feeding on two host plants; a C3 plant (Solanum dulcamara), and a C4 plant (Amaranthus viridis). We expected aphid population size to increase on plants in elevated CO2, with the degree of increase depending on the N availability.We found a significant CO2× N interaction for the response of population size for M. euphorbiae feeding on S. dulcamara: aphids feeding on plants grown in ambient CO2, low N conditions increased in response to either high N availability or elevated CO2. No population size responses were observed for aphids infesting A. viridis. Elevated CO2 increased plant biomass, specific leaf weight, and C : N ratios of the C3 plant, S. dulcamara but did not affect the C4 plant, A. viridis. Increased N fertilization significantly increased plant biomass, leaf area, and the weight : height ratio in both experiments. Elevated CO2 decreased leaf N in S. dulcamara and had no effect on A. viridis, while higher N availability increased leaf N in A. viridis and had no effect in S. dulcamara. Aphid infestation only affected the weight : height ratio of S. dulcamara.We only observed an increase in aphid population size in response to elevated CO2 or increased N availability for aphids feeding on S. dulcamara grown under low N conditions. There appears to be a maximum population growth rate that M. euphorbiae aphids can attain, and we suggest that this response is because of intrinsic limits on development time and fecundity.

Notes: Mixedwood forests are an ecologically and economically important forest type in central Canada, but the ecology of these forests is not as well studied as that of single-species dominated stands in the boreal forest. Northern boreal mixedwood forests have only recently been harvested and the effects of harvesting on carbon content in these stands are unknown. We quantified the carbon content and aboveground net primary production (NPP) for four different-aged mixedwood boreal forest stands in northern Manitoba, Canada. The stands included 11-, 18-, and 30-year-old stands that originated from harvesting and a 65-year-old fire-originated stand that typifies the origin of all northern boreal mixed-wood forests that are coming under management. Trees included black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.), jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.), balsam poplar (Populus balsamifera L.), and quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.). Overstory biomass was estimated using species-specific allometric models that generally explained greater than 95% of the observed variation in biomass. Carbon content of the overstory vegetation was greatest in the 65-year-old stand and was 74% larger than the 11-year-old stand and showed a positive relationship with stand age (F1, 2=122.62, P=0.0081 R2=0.99). The slope of mineral soil carbon did not differ significantly among stands (F1, 2=0.39, P=0.5956, R2=0.16). Coarse woody debris carbon content followed a U-shaped pattern among stands. Aboveground NPP differed by 24% between the youngest and oldest stand. Mean annual carbon accumulation and aboveground NPP rates of the mixedwood forests were on average two times greater than nearby relatively pure stands studied during the BOREAS (BOReal Ecosystem Atmospheric Study) project. The trends in the results, along with other field studies, suggest that harvesting does not significantly affect the total soil carbon content. The results of this study suggest that scientists should be cautious about extrapolating results from BOREAS stands to a broader region until more data on other forest types and regions are available.

Notes: This study deals with changes in the plant cover and its net carbon sequestration over 30 years on a subarctic Sphagnum-mire with permafrost near Abisko, northernmost Sweden, in relation to climatic variations during the same period. Aerial colour infrared images from 1970 and 2000 were compared to reveal changes in surface structure and vegetation over the whole mire, while the plant populations were studied within a smaller, mainly ombrotrophic part. The results demonstrated two processes, namely (1) that wet sites dominated by graminoids expanded while hummock sites dominated by dwarf shrubs receded, and (2) that on the hummocks lichens expanded while evergreen dwarf shrubs and mosses decreased, both processes creating an instability in the surface structure. A successive degradation of the permafrost is the likely reason for the increase in wet areas, while the changes in the hummock vegetation might have resulted from higher spring temperatures giving rise to an intensified snow melt, exposing the vegetation to frost drought. Because of the vegetation changes, the annual litter input of carbon to the mire has increased slightly, by 4 g m−2 a−1 (7.3%), over these years while an increased erosion has resulted in a loss of 40–80 Mg carbon or 7–17 g m−2 a−1 for the entire mire over the same period. As the recalcitrant proportion of the litter has decreased, the decay rate in the acrotelm might be expected to increase in the future.

Notes: Mitigating or slowing an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]) has been the focus of international efforts, most apparent with the development of the Kyoto Protocol. Sequestration of carbon (C) in agricultural soils is being advocated as a method to assist in meeting the demands of an international C credit system. The conversion of conventionally tilled agricultural lands to no till is widely accepted as having a large-scale sequestration potential. In this study, C flux measurements over a no-till corn/soybean agricultural ecosystem over 6 years were coupled with estimates of C release associated with agricultural practices to assess the net biome productivity (NBP) of this no-till ecosystem. Estimates of NBP were also calculated for the conventionally tilled corn/soybean ecosystem assuming net ecosystem exchange is C neutral. These measurements were scaled to the US as a whole to determine the sequestration potential of corn/soybean ecosystems, under current practices where 10% of agricultural land devoted to this ecosystem is no-tilled and under a hypothetical scenario where 100% of the land is not tilled. The estimates of this analysis show that current corn/soybean agriculture in the US releases ∼7.2 Tg C annually, with no-till sequestering ∼2.2 Tg and conventional-till releasing ∼9.4 Tg. The complete conversion of land area to no till might result in 21.7 Tg C sequestered annually, representing a net C flux difference of ∼29 Tg C. These results demonstrate that large-scale conversion to no-till practices, at least for the corn/soybean ecosystem, could potentially offset ca. 2% of annual US carbon emissions.

Notes: In order to study the likely effects of global warming on future ecosystems, a method for applying a heating treatment to open-field plant canopies (i.e. a temperature free-air controlled enhancement (T-FACE) system) is needed which will warm vegetation as expected by the future climate. One method which shows promise is infrared heating, but a theory of operation is needed for predicting the performance of infrared heaters. Therefore, a theoretical equation was derived to predict the thermal radiation power required to warm a plant canopy per degree rise in temperature per unit of heated land area. Another equation was derived to predict the thermal radiation efficiency of an incoloy rod infrared heater as a function of wind speed. An actual infrared heater system was also assembled which utilized two infrared thermometers to measure the temperature of a heated plot and that of an adjacent reference plot and which used proportional–integrative–derivative control of the heater to maintain a constant temperature difference between the two plots. Provided that it was not operated too high above the canopy, the heater system was able to maintain a constant set-point difference very well. Furthermore, there was good agreement between the measured and theoretical unit thermal radiation power requirements when tested on a Sudan grass (Sorghum vulgare) canopy. One problem that has been identified for infrared heating of experimental plots is that the vapor pressure gradients (VPGs) from inside the leaves to the air outside would not be the same as would be expected if the warming were performed by heating the air everywhere (i.e. by global warming). Therefore, a theoretical equation was derived to compute how much water an infrared-warmed plant would lose in normal air compared with what it would have lost in air which had been warmed at constant relative humidity, as is predicted with global warming. On an hourly or daily basis, it proposed that this amount of water could be added back to plants using a drip irrigation system as a first-order correction to this VPG problem.

Notes: Environmental change is anticipated to negatively affect both plant and animal populations. As abiotic factors rapidly change habitat suitability, projections range from altered genetic diversity to wide-spread species loss. Here, we assess the degree to which changes in atmospheric composition associated with environmental change will influence not only the abundance, but also the genotypic/phenotypic diversity, of herbivore populations. Using free-air CO2 and O3 enrichment (FACE) technology, we assess numerical responses of pea aphids (Acyrthosiphon pisum) exhibiting a pink–green genetic polymorphism and an environmentally determined wing polyphenism on broad bean plants (Vicia faba) under enriched CO2 and/or O3 atmospheres, over multiple generations. We show that these two greenhouse gases alter not only aphid population sizes, but also genotypic and phenotypic frequencies. As the green genotype was positively influenced by elevated CO2 levels, but the pink genotype was not, genotypic frequencies (pink morph : green morph) ranged from 1 : 1 to 9 : 1. These two genotypes also displayed marked differences in phenotypic frequencies. The pink genotype exhibited higher levels of wing induction under all atmospheric treatments, however, this polyphenism was negatively influenced by elevated O3 levels. Resultantly, frequencies of winged phenotypes (pink morph : green morph) varied from 10 : 1 to 332 : 1. Thus, atmospheric conditions associated with environmental change may alter not just overall population sizes, but also genotypic and phenotypic frequencies of herbivore populations, thereby influencing community and ecosystem functioning.

Notes: Reductions in river discharge (water availability) like those from climate change or increased water withdrawal, reduce freshwater biodiversity. We combined two scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change with a global hydrological model to build global scenarios of future losses in river discharge from climate change and increased water withdrawal. Applying these results to known relationships between fish species and discharge, we build scenarios of losses (at equilibrium) of riverine fish richness. In rivers with reduced discharge, up to 75% (quartile range 4–22%) of local fish biodiversity would be headed toward extinction by 2070 because of combined changes in climate and water consumption. Fish loss in the scenarios fell disproportionately on poor countries. Reductions in water consumption could prevent many of the extinctions in these scenarios.

Notes: Thirty-six mesocosms, each containing a two-species community of Trifolium repens (C3 legume) and Stenotaphrum secundatum (C4 grass), were grown in sand with three nutrient regimes, zero N low P, zero N high P and supplied N high P, under ambient (aCO2) and twice ambient CO2 (eCO2) for 15 months in two greenhouses. Aboveground annual production in the P limited mesocosms did not respond to eCO2 and was reduced by 50% relative to mesocosms with an adequate P supply, where dry-matter production was increased by 12–24% under eCO2. The stimulation of production by eCO2 occurred throughout the year despite a clear seasonality in growth. There was no effect of eCO2 on leaf area index (LAI), which was larger under high P than low P. Live root mass at the end of the experiment was higher under eCO2 in all nutrient treatments, but the response of total belowground C (root+soil) to eCO2 depended on P treatment. Under limiting P, belowground C was not significantly changed by eCO2 (2–2.3 t belowground C ha−1). Under high P supply, both root and soil C pools increased under eCO2. Under aCO2, low P supply increased belowground C by 0.7–1 t C ha−1 above that added by the high P treatment. P is commonly limiting in Australian ecosystems and the majority of ecosystem N input is provided by biological N fixation. Consequently, the response of legumes to eCO2 is of particular importance. These results demonstrate that at low P availability, there is likely to be only a limited response of biomass production by T. repens to eCO2, which in turn may constrain any ecosystem response.

Notes: While most ecologists agree that the effects of fragmentation on diversity of organisms are predominantly negative and that the scale of fragmentation defines their severity, the role of habitat corridors in mitigating those effects still remains controversial. This ambiguousness rests largely on various difficulties in experimentation, a problem partially solved in the present paper by the use of easily manipulated soil communities. In this 2.5-year-long field experiment, we investigated the responses of soil decomposer organisms (from microbes to mesofaunal predators) to habitat fragment size, in the presence or absence of habitat corridors connecting the fragments. The habitat fragments and corridors, composed of forest humus soil, were embedded in mineral soil representing an uninhabitable (or nonpreferred) matrix for the decomposer organisms. The results demonstrate that soil decomposer organisms do respond to changes in their habitat size: the species richness of microarthropods (mites and collembolans) increased as the size of the fragments increased. Especially collembolan species and predatory mites proved to be sensitive to the restricted habitat size, which is suggested to be a consequence of the large proportion of rare species and small and fluctuating population sizes in these groups. Contrary to our expectations, the presence of corridors had no positive effects on species richness or abundance of any of the studied faunas, possibly because of the low quality of the corridors. On the other hand, the biomass of soil fungi increased in the presence of corridors, which apparently provided a preferred pathway for vegetative dispersal of the fungi. Our results indicate that despite their characteristic underground environment, the response of soil decomposer organisms – in particular that of microarthropods – to habitat size is not unlike to that of the larger organisms in aboveground habitats.

Notes: The dynamics and demography of roots were followed for 5 years that spanned wet and drought periods in native, semiarid shortgrass steppe grassland exposed to ambient and elevated atmospheric CO2 treatments. Elevated compared with ambient CO2 concentrations resulted in greater root-length growth (+52%), root-length losses (+37%), and total pool sizes (+41%). The greater standing pool of roots under elevated compared with ambient CO2 was because of the greater number of roots (+35%), not because individuals were longer. Loss rates increased relatively less than growth rates because life spans were longer (+41%). The diameter of roots was larger under elevated compared with ambient CO2 only in the upper soil profile. Elevated CO2 affected root architecture through increased branching.Growth-to-loss ratio regressions to time of equilibrium indicate very long turnover times of 5.8, 7.0, and 5.3 years for control, ambient, and elevated CO2, respectively. Production was greater under elevated compared with ambient CO2 both below- and aboveground, and the above- to belowground ratios did not differ between treatments. However, estimates of belowground production differed among methods of calculation using minirhizotron data, as well as between minirhizotron and root-ingrowth methods. Users of minirhizotrons may need to consider equilibration in terms of both new growth and disappearance, rather than just growth.Large temporal pulses of root initiation and termination rates of entire individuals were observed (analogous to birth–death rates), and precipitation explained more of the variance in root initiation than termination. There was a dampening of the pulsing in root initiation and termination under elevated CO2 during both wet and dry periods, which may be because of conservation of soil water reducing the suddenness of wet pulses and duration and severity of dry pulses. However, a very low degree of synchrony was observed between growth and disappearance (production and decomposition).

Notes: How can rapidly growing food demands be met with least adverse impact on nature? Two very different sorts of suggestions predominate in the literature: wildlife-friendly farming, whereby on-farm practices are made as benign to wildlife as possible (at the potential cost of decreasing yields); and land-sparing, in which farm yields are increased and pressure to convert land for agriculture thereby reduced (at the potential cost of decreasing wildlife populations on farmland). This paper is about one important aspect of the land-sparing idea – the sensitivity of future requirements for cropland to plausible variation in yield increases, relative to other variables. Focusing on the 23 most energetically important food crops, we use data from the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) and the United Nations Population Division (UNPD) to project plausible values for 2050 for population size, diet, yield, and trade, and then look at their effect on the area needed to meet demand for the 23 crops, for the developing and developed worlds in turn. Our calculations suggest that across developing countries, the area under those crops will need to increase very considerably by 2050 (by 23% under intermediate projections), and that plausible variation in average yield has as much bearing on the extent of that expansion as does variation in population size or per capita consumption; future cropland area varies far less under foreseeable variation in the net import of food from the rest of the world. By contrast, cropland area in developed countries is likely to decrease slightly by 2050 (by 4% under intermediate projections for those 23 crops), and will be less sensitive to variation in population growth, diet, yield, or trade. Other contentious aspects of the land-sparing idea require further scrutiny, but these results confirm its potential significance and suggest that conservationists should be as concerned about future agricultural yields as they are about population growth and rising per capita consumption.

Notes: The Kyoto protocol requires countries to provide national inventories for a list of greenhouse gases including N2O. A standard methodology proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates direct N2O emissions from soils as a constant fraction (1.25%) of the nitrogen input. This approach is insensitive to environmental variability. A more dynamic approach is needed to establish reliable N2O emission inventories and to propose efficient mitigation strategies. The objective of this paper is to develop a model that allows the spatial and temporal variation in environmental conditions to be taken into account in national inventories of direct N2O emissions. Observed annual N2O emission rates are used to establish statistical relationships between N2O emissions, seasonal climate and nitrogen-fertilization rate. Two empirical models, MCROPS and MGRASS, were developed for croplands and grasslands. Validated with an independent data set, MCROPS shows that spring temperature and summer precipitation explain 35% of the variance in annual N2O emissions from croplands. In MGRASS, nitrogen-fertilization rate and winter temperature explain 48% of the variance in annual N2O emissions from grasslands. Using long-term climate observations (1900–2000), the sensitivity of the models with climate variability is estimated by comparing the year-to-year prediction of the model to the precision obtained during the validation process. MCROPS is able to capture interannual variability of N2O emissions from croplands. However, grassland emissions show very small interannual variations, which are too small to be detectable by MGRASS. MCROPS and MGRASS improve the statistical reliability of direct N2O emissions compared with the IPCC default methodology. Furthermore, the models can be used to estimate the effects of interannual variation in climate, climate change on direct N2O emissions from soils at the regional scale.

Notes: Plant nitrogen (N) relationship has the potential to regulate plant and ecosystem responses strongly to global warming but has not been carefully examined under warmed environments. This study was conducted to examine responses of plant N relationship (i.e. leaf N concentration, N use efficiency, and plant N content in this study) to a 4-year experimental warming in a tallgrass prairie in the central Great Plains in USA. We measured mass-based N and carbon (C) concentrations of stem, green, and senescent leaves, and calculated N resorption efficiency, N use efficiency, plant N content, and C : N ratios of five dominant species (two C4 grasses, one C3 grass, and two C3 forbs). The results showed that warming decreased N concentration of both green and senescent leaves, and N resorption efficiency for all species. N use efficiencies and C : N ratios were accordingly higher under warming than control. Total plant N content increased under warming because of warming-induced increases in biomass production that are larger than the warming-induced decreases in tissue N concentration. The increases in N contents in both green and senescent plant tissues suggest that warming enhanced both plant N uptake and return through litterfall in the tallgrass ecosystem. Our results also suggest that the increased N use efficiency in C4 grasses is a primary mechanism leading to increased biomass production under warming in the grassland ecosystem.

Notes: The fate of immobilized N in soils is one of the great uncertainties in predicting C sequestration at increased CO2 and N deposition. In a dual isotope tracer experiment (13C, 15N) within a 4-year CO2 enrichment (+200 ppmv) study with forest model ecosystems, we (i) quantified the effects of elevated CO2 on the partitioning of N; (ii) traced immobilized N into physically separated pools of soil organic matter (SOM) with turnover rates known from their 13C signals; and (iii) estimated the remobilization and thus, the bio-availability of newly sequestered C and N. (1) CO2 enrichment significantly decreased NO3− concentrations in soil waters and export from 1.5 m deep lysimeters by 30–80%. Consequently, elevated CO2 increased the overall retention of N in the model ecosystems. (2) About 60–80% of added 15NH415NO3 were retained in soils. The clay fraction was the greatest sink for the immobilized 15N sequestering 50–60% of the total new soil N. SOM associated with clay contained only 25% of the total new soil C pool and had small C/N ratios (〈13), indicating that it consists of humified organic matter with a relatively slow turn over rate. This implies that added 15N was mainly immobilized in stable mineral-bound SOM pools. (3) Incubation of soils for 1 year showed that the remobilization of newly sequestered N was three to nine times smaller than that of newly sequestered C. Thus, inorganic inputs of N were stabilized more effectively in soils than C. Significantly less newly sequestered N was remobilized from soils previously exposed to elevated CO2. In summary, our results show firstly that a large fraction of inorganic N inputs becomes effectively immobilized in relative stable SOM pools and secondly that elevated CO2 can increase N retention in soils and hence it may tighten N cycling and diminish the risk of nitrate leaching to groundwater.

Notes: Increases in the long-range aerial transport of reactive N species from low to high latitudes will lead to increased accumulation in the Arctic snowpack, followed by release during the early summer thaw. We followed the release of simulated snowpack N, and its subsequent fate over three growing seasons, on two contrasting high Arctic tundra types on Spitsbergen (79°N). Applications of 15N (99 atom%) at 0.1 and 0.5 g N m−2 were made immediately after snowmelt in 2001 as either Na15NO3 or 15NH4Cl. These applications are approximately 1 × and 5 × the yearly atmospheric deposition rates. The vegetation at the principal experimental site was dominated by bryophytes and Salix polaris while at the second site, vegetation included bryophytes, graminoids and lichens. Audits of the applied 15N were undertaken, over two or three growing seasons, by determining the amounts of labeled N in the soil (0–3 and 3–10 cm), soil microbial biomass and different vegetation fractions.Initial partitioning of the 15N at the first sampling time showed that ∼60% of the applied 15N was recovered in soil, litter and plants, regardless of N form or application rate, indicating that rapid immobilization into organic forms had occurred at both sites. Substantial incorporation of the 15N was found in the microbial biomass in the humus layer and in the bryophyte and lichen fractions. After initial partitioning there appeared to be little change in the total 15N recovered over the following two or three seasons in each of the sampled fractions, indicating highly conservative N retention. The most obvious transfer of 15N, following assimilation, was from the microbial biomass into stable forms of humus, with an apparent half-life of just over 1 year. At the principal site the microbial biomass and vascular plants were found to immobilize the greatest proportion of 15N compared with their total N concentration. In the more diverse tundra of the second site, lichen species and graminoids competed effectively for 15NH4-N and 15NO3-N, respectively. Results suggest that Arctic tundra habitats have a considerable capacity to immobilize additional inorganic N released from the snow pack. However, with 40% of the applied 15N apparently lost there is potential for N enrichment in the surrounding fjordal systems during the spring thaw.

Notes: The life cycles of plants and animals are changing around the world in line with the predictions originated from hypotheses concerning the impact of global warming and climate change on biological systems. Commonly, the search for ecological mechanisms behind the observed changes in bird phenology has focused on the analysis of climatic patterns from the species breeding grounds. However, the ecology of bird migration suggests that the spring arrival of long-distance migrants (such as trans-Saharan birds) is more likely to be influenced by climate conditions in wintering areas given their direct impact on the onset of migration and its progression. We tested this hypothesis by analysing the first arrival dates (FADs) of six trans-Saharan migrants (cuckoo Cuculus canorus, swift Apus apus, hoopoe Upupa epops, swallow Hirundo rustica, house martin Delichon urbica and nightingale Luscinia megarhynchos), in a western Mediterranean area since from 1952 to 2003. By means of multiple regression analyses, FADs were analysed in relation to the monthly temperature and precipitation patterns of five African climatic regions south of the Sahara where species are thought to overwinter and from the European site from where FADs were collected. We obtained significant models for five species explaining 9–41% of the variation in FADs. The interpretation of the models suggests that: (1) The climate in wintering quarters, especially the precipitation, has a stronger influence on FADs than that in the species' potential European breeding grounds. (2) The accumulative effects of climate patterns prior to migration onset may be of considerable importance since those climate variables that served to summarize climate patterns 12 months prior to the onset of migration were selected by final models. (3) Temperature and precipitation in African regions are likely to affect departure decision in the species studied through their indirect effects on food availability and the build-up of reserves for migration. Our results concerning the factors that affect the arrival times of trans-Saharan migrants indicate that the effects of climate change are more complex than previously suggested, and that these effects might have an interacting impact on species ecology, for example by reversing ecological pressures during species' life cycles.

Notes: This paper presents a new algorithm, Nitrous Oxide Emission (NOE) for simulating the emission of the greenhouse gas N2O from agricultural soils. N2O fluxes are calculated as the result of production through denitrification and nitrification and reduction through the last step of denitrification. Actual denitrification and nitrification rates are calculated from biological parameters and soil water-filled pore space, temperature and mineral nitrogen contents. New suggestions in NOE consisted in introducing (1) biological site-specific parameters of soil N2O reduction and (2) reduction of the N2O produced through nitrification to N2 through denitrification. This paper includes a database of 64 N2O fluxes measured on the field scale with corresponding environmental parameters collected from five agricultural situations in France. This database was used to test the validity of this algorithm. Site per site comparison of simulated N2O fluxes against observed data leads to mixed results. For 80% of the tested points, measured and simulated fluxes are in accordance whereas the others resulted in an important discrepancy. The origin of this discrepancy is discussed. On the other hand, mean annual fluxes measured on each site were strongly correlated to mean simulated annual fluxes. The biological site-specific parameter of soil N2O reduction introduced into NOE appeared particularly useful to discriminate the general level of N2O emissions from site to site. Furthermore, the relevance of NOE was confirmed by comparing measured and simulated N2O fluxes using some data from the US TRAGNET database. We suggest the use of NOE on a regional scale in order to predict mean annual N2O emissions.

Notes: Synthesis efforts that identify patterns of ecosystem response to a suite of warming manipulations can make important contributions to climate change science. However, cross-study comparisons are impeded by the paucity of detailed analyses of how passive warming and other manipulations affect microclimate. Here we document the independent and combined effects of a common passive warming manipulation, open-top chambers (OTCs), and a simulated widespread land use, clipping, on microclimate on the Tibetan Plateau. OTCs consistently elevated growing season averaged mean daily air temperature by 1.0–2.0°C, maximum daily air temperature by 2.1–7.3°C and the diurnal air temperature range by 1.9–6.5°C, with mixed effects on minimum daily air temperature, and mean daily soil temperature and moisture. These OTC effects on microclimate differ from reported effects of a common active warming method, infrared heating, which has more consistent effects on soil than on air temperature. There were significant interannual and intragrowing season differences in OTC effects on microclimate. For example, while OTCs had mixed effects on growing season averaged soil temperatures, OTCs consistently elevated soil temperature by approximately 1.0°C early in the growing season. Nonadditive interactions between OTCs and clipping were also present: OTCs in clipped plots generally elevated air and soil temperatures more than OTCs in nonclipped plots. Moreover, site factors dynamically interacted with microclimate and with the efficacy of the OTC manipulations.These findings highlight the need to understand differential microclimate effects between warming methods, within warming method across ecosystem sites, within warming method crossed with other treatments, and within sites over various timescales. Methods, sites and scales are potential explanatory variables and covariables in climate warming experiments. Consideration of this variability among and between experimental warming studies will lead to greater understanding and better prediction of ecosystem response to anthropogenic climate warming.

Notes: Using spatial predictions of future threats to biodiversity, we assessed for the first time the relative potential impacts of future land use and climate change on the threat status of plant species. We thus estimated how many taxa could be affected by future threats that are usually not included in current IUCN Red List assessments. Here, we computed the Red List status including future threats of 227 Proteaceae taxa endemic to the Cape Floristic Region, South Africa, and compared this with their Red List status excluding future threats. We developed eight different land use and climate change scenarios for the year 2020, providing a range of best- to worst-case scenarios. Four scenarios include only the effects of future land use change, while the other four also include the impacts of projected anthropogenic climate change (HadCM2 IS92a GGa), using niche-based models. Up to a third of the 227 Proteaceae taxa are uplisted (become more threatened) by up to three threat categories if future threats as predicted for 2020 are included, and the proportion of threatened Proteaceae taxa rises on average by 9% (range 2–16%), depending on the scenario. With increasing severity of the scenarios, the proportion of Critically Endangered taxa increases from about 1% to 7% and almost 2% of the 227 Proteaceae taxa become Extinct because of climate change. Overall, climate change has the most severe effects on the Proteaceae, but land use change also severely affects some taxa. Most of the threatened taxa occur in low-lying coastal areas, but the proportion of threatened taxa changes considerably in inland mountain areas if future threats are included. Our approach gives important insights into how, where and when future threats could affect species persistence and can in a sense be seen as a test of the value of planned interventions for conservation.

Notes: Increasing concern over the implications of climate change for biodiversity has led to the use of species–climate envelope models to project species extinction risk under climate-change scenarios. However, recent studies have demonstrated significant variability in model predictions and there remains a pressing need to validate models and to reduce uncertainties. Model validation is problematic as predictions are made for events that have not yet occurred. Resubstituition and data partitioning of present-day data sets are, therefore, commonly used to test the predictive performance of models. However, these approaches suffer from the problems of spatial and temporal autocorrelation in the calibration and validation sets. Using observed distribution shifts among 116 British breeding-bird species over the past ∼20 years, we are able to provide a first independent validation of four envelope modelling techniques under climate change. Results showed good to fair predictive performance on independent validation, although rules used to assess model performance are difficult to interpret in a decision-planning context. We also showed that measures of performance on nonindependent data provided optimistic estimates of models' predictive ability on independent data. Artificial neural networks and generalized additive models provided generally more accurate predictions of species range shifts than generalized linear models or classification tree analysis. Data for independent model validation and replication of this study are rare and we argue that perfect validation may not in fact be conceptually possible. We also note that usefulness of models is contingent on both the questions being asked and the techniques used. Implementations of species–climate envelope models for testing hypotheses and predicting future events may prove wrong, while being potentially useful if put into appropriate context.

Notes: Daily global observations from the Advanced Very High-Resolution Radiometers on the series of meteorological satellites operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration between 1982 and 1999 were used to generate a new weekly global burnt surface product at a resolution of 8 km. Comparison with independently available information on fire locations and timing suggest that while the time-series cannot yet be used to make accurate and quantitative estimates of global burnt area it does provide a reliable estimate of changes in location and season of burning on the global scale. This time-series was used to characterize fire activity in both northern and southern hemispheres on the basis of average seasonal cycle and interannual variability. Fire seasonality and fire distribution data sets have been combined to provide gridded maps at 0.5° resolution documenting the probability of fire occurring in any given season for any location. A multiannual variogram constructed from 17 years of observations shows good agreement between the spatial–temporal behavior in fire activity and the ‘El Niño’ Southern Oscillation events, showing highly likely connections between both phenomena.

Notes: A fundamental challenge in understanding the global nitrogen cycle is the quantification of denitrification on large heterogeneous landscapes. Because floodplains are important sites for denitrification and nitrogen retention, we developed a generalized floodplain biogeochemical model to determine whether dams and flood-control levees affect floodplain denitrification by altering floodplain inundation. We combined a statistical model of floodplain topography with a model of hydrology and nitrogen biogeochemistry to simulate floods of different magnitude. The model predicted substantial decreases in NO3-N processing on floodplains whose overbank floods have been altered by levees and upstream dams. Our simulations suggest that dams may reduce nitrate processing more than setback levees. Levees increased areal floodplain denitrification rates, but this effect was offset by a reduction in the area inundated. Scenarios that involved a levee also resulted in more variability in N processing among replicate floodplains.Nitrate loss occurred rapidly and completely in our model floodplains. As a consequence, total flood volume and the initial mass of nitrate reaching a floodplain may provide reasonable estimates of total N processing on floodplains during floods. This finding suggests that quantifying the impact of dams and levees on floodplain denitrification may be possible using recent advances in remote sensing of floodplain topography and flood stage. Furthermore, when considering flooding over the long-term, the cumulative N processed by frequent smaller floods was estimated to be quite large relative to that processed by larger, less frequent floods. Our results suggest that floodplain denitrification may be greatly influenced by the pervasive anthropogenic flood-control measures that currently exist on most majors river floodplains throughout the world, and may have the potential to be impacted by future changes in flood probabilities that will likely occur as a result of climate shifts.

Notes: Sedimentary records from three Canadian High Arctic ponds on Ellesmere Island, spanning the last several thousand years, show major shifts in pond communities within the last ∼200 years. These paleolimnological data indicate that aquatic insect (Diptera: Chironomidae) populations rapidly expanded and greatly increased in community diversity beginning in the 19th century. These invertebrate changes coincided with striking shifts in algal (diatom) populations, indicating strong food-web effects because of climate warming and reduced ice-cover in ponds. Predicted future warming in the Arctic may produce ecological changes that exceed the large shifts that have already occurred since the 19th century.

Notes: We studied the interannual variation of surface water partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) and the CO2 emissions from the 37 large Finnish lakes linking them to the water quality, catchment and climate attributes in 1996–2001. The lake water CO2 was measured three times a year in the study lakes in 1998 and 1999 and for the rest of the years the CO2 was modeled by measured alkalinity. The median annual CO2 emission to the atmosphere ranged between 1.49 and 2.29 mol m−2 a−1. The annual CO2 emission followed closely the annual precipitation pattern with the highest emission during the years when the precipitation was highest (r2=0.81–0.97, P〈0.05). There was a strong negative correlation (r2=0.50–0.82, P〈0.001) between O2 and CO2 saturation in the lake water during stratification suggesting effective decomposition of organic matter in the lakes. Furthermore, total phosphorus and the proportion of agricultural land in the catchment had significant positive correlations with CO2 saturation.

Notes: We investigated the effects of oxygen (O2) concentration on methane (CH4) production and oxidation in two humid tropical forests that differ in long-term, time-averaged soil O2 concentrations. We identified sources and sinks of CH4 through the analysis of soil gas concentrations, surface emissions, and carbon isotope measurements. Isotope mass balance models were used to calculate the fraction of CH4 oxidized in situ. Complementary laboratory experiments were conducted to determine the effects of O2 concentration on gross and net rates of methanogenesis. Field and laboratory experiments indicated that high levels of CH4 production occurred in soils that contained between 9±1.1% and 19±0.2% O2. For example, we observed CH4 concentrations in excess of 3% in soils with 9±1.1% O2. CH4 emissions from the lower O2 sites were high (22–101 nmol CH4 m−2 s−1), and were equal in magnitude to CH4 emissions from natural wetlands. During peak periods of CH4 efflux, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions became enriched in 13C because of high methanogenic activity. Gross CH4 production was probably greater than flux measurements indicated, as isotope mass balance calculations suggested that 48–78% of the CH4 produced was oxidized prior to atmospheric egress. O2 availability influenced CH4 oxidation more strongly than methanogenesis. Gross CH4 production was relatively insensitive to O2 concentrations in laboratory experiments. In contrast, methanotrophic bacteria oxidized a greater fraction of total CH4 production with increasing O2 concentration, shifting the δ13C composition of CH4 to values that were more positive. Isotopic measurements suggested that CO2 was an important source of carbon for methanogenesis in humid forests. The δ13C value of methanogenesis was between −84‰ and −98‰, which is well within the range of CH4 produced from CO2 reduction, and considerably more depleted in 13C than CH4 formed from acetate.

Notes: Isoprene is the most abundant volatile hydrocarbon emitted by many tree species and has a major impact on tropospheric chemistry, leading to formation of pollutants and enhancing the lifetime of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas. Reliable estimates of global isoprene emission from different ecosystems demand a clear understanding of the processes of both production and consumption. Although the biochemistry of isoprene production has been studied extensively and environmental controls over its emission are relatively well known, the study of isoprene consumption in soil has been largely neglected.Here, we present results on the production and consumption of isoprene studied by measuring the following different components: (1) leaf and soil and (2) at the whole ecosystem level in two distinct enclosed ultraviolet light-depleted mesocosms at the Biosphere 2 facility: a cottonwood plantation with trees grown at ambient and elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations and a tropical rainforest, under well watered and drought conditions. Consumption of isoprene by soil was observed in both systems. The isoprene sink capacity of litter-free soil of the agriforest stands showed no significant response to different CO2 treatments, while isoprene production was strongly depressed by elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations. In both mesocosms, drought suppressed the sink capacity, but the full sink capacity of dry soil was recovered within a few hours upon rewetting. We conclude that soil uptake of atmospheric isoprene is likely to be modest but significant and needs to be taken into account for a comprehensive estimate of the global isoprene budget. More studies investigating the capacity of soils to uptake isoprene in natural conditions are clearly needed.

Notes: El Niño–La Niña cycles strongly influence dry and wet seasons in the tropics and consequently nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from tropical rainforest soils. We monitored whole-system and soil chamber N2O fluxes during 5-month-long droughts in the Biosphere 2 tropical forest to determine how rainfall changes N2O production. A consistent pattern of N2O flux changes during drought and subsequent wetting emerged from our experiments. Soil surface drying during the first days of drought, presumably increased gas transport out of the soil, which increased N2O fluxes. Subsequent drying caused an exponential decrease in whole-system (4.0±0.1% day−1) and soil chamber N2O flux (8.9±0.8% day−1; south chamber; and 13.7±1.1% day−1; north chamber), which was highly correlated with soil moisture content. Soil air N2O concentration ([N2O]) and flux measurements revealed that surface N2O production persisted during drought. The first rainfall after drought triggered a N2O pulse, which amounted to 25% of drought-associated reduction in N2O flux and 1.3±0.4% of annual N2O emissions. Physical displacement of soil air by water and soil chemistry changes during drought could not account for the observed N2O pulse. We contend that osmotic stress on the microbial biomass must have supplied the N source for pulse N2O, which was produced at the litter–soil interface. After the pulse, N2O fluxes were consistently 90% of predrought values. Nitrate change rate, nutrient, [N2O], and flux analyses suggested that nitrifiers dominated N2O production during the pulse and denitrifiers during wet conditions. N2O flux measurements in Biosphere 2, especially during the N2O pulse, demonstrate that large-scale integration methods, such as flux towers, are essential for improving ecosystem N2O flux estimates.

Notes: Moths can detect changes in environmental carbon dioxide (CO2) with extremely high sensitivity, but the role of CO2 in the biology of these and other insects is not well understood. Although CO2 has been demonstrated to influence egg-laying (oviposition) behavior of the pyralid moth Cactoblastis cactorum and nectar foraging of the sphingid moth Manduca sexta, information about the generalized role of CO2 in the behavioral biology of these species is lacking. Comparative data are necessary to properly assess how the behaviors of different species may be modified by steadily rising levels of greenhouse gases in the environment. Experiments carried out in Biosphere 2 addressed whether changes in ambient CO2 levels play a role in the oviposition behaviors of M. sexta moths. In the first series of experiments, oviposition was measured inside a flight cage with different levels of nearly ambient or elevated CO2 (400, 800 or 1200 ppm). For each concentration, hostplants used as oviposition sites were grown from seed at a CO2 level that matched the environment inside the flight cage. Under homogenous levels of CO2, we observed no significant difference in oviposition behavior at the concentrations tested. In a second series of experiments, two groups of hostplants, each surrounded by a mini free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) ring, were assembled inside a flight cage. In this choice test, a dynamic plume of artificially high CO2 was generated around one group of test plants, while ambient CO2 was released around the second (control) group. After eggs were counted on both plant groups, M. sexta females showed a small preference for ovipositing on the control plants. Therefore, in contrast to C. cactorum females tested under similar dynamic flow conditions, M. sexta female oviposition was not strongly inhibited by elevated CO2. To investigate this phenomenon further, we used electrophysiological recording and found that the CO2 receptor cells in M. sexta, unlike those in C. cactorum, are not readily affected by elevated levels of ambient CO2. These findings therefore suggest that elevated background levels of CO2 affect the physiology of the CO2 detection system of M. sexta to a lesser extent than that of C. cactorum, and this correlates well with the observed differences in oviposition behavior between the two species under elevated levels of environmental CO2. Hostplants of C. cactorum are crassulacean acid metabolism plants that generate nocturnal CO2 sinks on the cladode surfaces, whereas, M. sexta hostplants are nocturnal sources of respiratory CO2. We hypothesize that the abrupt and continuing increase in global ambient CO2 levels will differentially alter the behavior and physiology of moths that use CO2 sinks and sources as sensory cues to find hostplants.

Notes: Cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) is a recognized, invasive annual weed of the western United States that reduces fire return times from decades to less than 5 years. To determine the interaction between rising carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]) and fuel load, we characterized potential changes in biomass accumulation, C : N ratio and digestibility of three cheatgrass populations from different elevations to recent and near-term projections in atmospheric [CO2]. The experimental CO2 values (270, 320, 370, 420 μmol mol−1) corresponded roughly to the CO2 concentrations that existed at the beginning of the 19th century, that during the 1960s, the current [CO2], and the near-term [CO2] projection for 2020, respectively. From 25 until 87 days after sowing (DAS), aboveground biomass for these different populations increased 1.5–2.7 g per plant for every 10 μmol mol−1 increase above the 270 μmol mol−1 preindustrial baseline. CO2 sensitivity among populations varied with elevational origin with populations from the lowest elevation showing the greatest productivity. Among all populations, the undigestible portion of aboveground plant material (acid detergent fiber ADF, mostly cellulose and lignin) increased with increasing [CO2]. In addition, the ratio of C : N increased with leaf age, with [CO2] and was highest for the lower elevational population. These CO2-induced qualitative changes could, in turn, result in potential decreases in herbivory and decomposition with subsequent effects on the aboveground retention of cheatgrass biomass. Overall, these data suggest that increasing atmospheric [CO2] above preambient levels may have contributed significantly to cheatgrass productivity and fuel load with subsequent effects on fire frequency and intensity.

Notes: Predictions of the effects of climate change on the extent of forests, savannas and deserts are usually based on simple response models derived from actual vegetation distributions. In this review, we show two major problems with the implicitly assumed straightforward cause–effect relationship. Firstly, several studies suggest that vegetation itself may have considerable effects on regional climate implying a positive feedback, which can potentially lead to large-scale hysteresis. Secondly, vegetation ecologists have found that effects of plants on microclimate and soils can cause a microscale positive feedback, implying that critical precipitation conditions for colonization of a site may differ from those for disappearance from that site. We argue that it is important to integrate these nonlinearities at disparate scales in models to produce more realistic predictions of potential effects of climate change and deforestation.

Notes: We studied the ability of tree seedlings to respond to two environmental factors, elevated ultraviolet B (UVB) radiation and availability of nitrogen (N), at the beginning of their development. Seeds of two birch species, Betula pubescens Ehrh. (common white birch) and B. pendula Roth (silver birch), were germinated and the seedlings grown in an experimental field in eastern Finland. The experimental design consisted of a constant 50% increase in UVB radiation (including a slight increase in UVA), a UVA control (a slight increase in UVA) and a control. The seedlings were fertilized with three levels of N. The experiment lasted for 2 months; aboveground biomass was measured and the most mature leaf of each seedling was taken for the analyses of phenolics. Growth of the seedlings was not significantly affected by enhanced UVB, but was increased by increasing N. Elevated UVB induced significant changes in phenolic compounds. Quercetin glycosides were accumulated in the leaves of both species in response to UVB; this is considered to be a protective response. However, the direction of the responses of individual phenolics to different N regimens differed. In addition, concentration of soluble condensed tannins was lower at moderate N than that at lower levels of N in both species; on the contrary, in B. pubescens the concentration of insoluble condensed tannins was highest at moderate N. No significant interaction between UV and N was detected, and the responses of the two species were highly similar to UVB, while the responses to N regimens varied slightly more between species.

Notes: It has been suggested that enrichment of atmospheric CO2 should alter mycorrhizal function by simultaneously increasing nutrient-uptake benefits and decreasing net C costs for host plants. However, this hypothesis has not been sufficiently tested. We conducted three experiments to examine the impacts of CO2 enrichment on the function of different combinations of plants and arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi grown under high and low soil nutrient availability. Across the three experiments, AM function was measured in 14 plant species, including forbs, C3 and C4 grasses, and plant species that are typically nonmycorrhizal. Five different AM fungal communities were used for inoculum, including mixtures of Glomus spp. and mixtures of Gigasporaceae (i.e. Gigaspora and Scutellospora spp.). Our results do not support the hypothesis that CO2 enrichment should consistently increase plant growth benefits from AM fungi, but rather, we found CO2 enrichment frequently reduced AM benefits. Furthermore, we did not find consistent evidence that enrichment of soil nutrients increases plant growth responses to CO2 enrichment and decreases plant growth responses to AM fungi.Our results show that the strength of AM mutualisms vary significantly among fungal and plant taxa, and that CO2 levels further mediate AM function. In general, when CO2 enrichment interacted with AM fungal taxa to affect host plant dry weight, it increased the beneficial effects of Gigasporaceae and reduced the benefits of Glomus spp. Future studies are necessary to assess the importance of temperature, irradiance, and ambient soil fertility in this response. We conclude that the affects of CO2 enrichment on AM function varies with plant and fungal taxa, and when making predictions about mycorrhizal function, it is unwise to generalize findings based on a narrow range of plant hosts, AM fungi, and environmental conditions.

Notes: We have investigated carbon isotopic compositions of four plant genus/species, Bothriochloa ischaemum (C4), Stipa bungeana (C3), Lespedeza sp. (C3) and Heteropappus less (C3), along a precipitation gradient in northwest China in order to assess the impact of water availability on the carbon isotopic discrimination against 13C during carbon assimilation in this area. This information is necessary for reconstruction of paleovegetation, particularly paleo-C3/C4 plant ratios using δ13C value of organic matter in loess and paleosols in the Chinese Loess Plateau. The δ13C of C3 plants, as a group, exhibits a negative correlation with the annual precipitation amount with a total change and sensitivity of 5‰ and −1.1‰/100 mm, respectively, for the precipitation range from 200 to 700 mm. The C4 grass, B. ischaemum responds to aridity by decreasing 1.7‰ for over the precipitation range from 350 to 700 mm; the plant δ13C is significantly correlated with annual precipitation with a slope −0.61‰/100 mm. This result implies that without considering the effect of water availability on the plant δ13C values, reconstruction of percent C4 vegetation during the last glaciation can be overestimated by about a factor of two.

Notes: The response of the soil microfood web (microflora, nematodes) to a moderate increase in atmospheric CO2 (+20%) was investigated by means of a free air CO2 enrichment experiment. The study was carried out in a seminatural temperate grassland for a period of 4 consecutive years (1 year before fumigation commenced and 3 years with fumigation). Several soil biological parameters showed no change (microbial biomass, bacterial biomass) or decline (microbial respiration) in the first year of elevated CO2 treatment as compared with controls. Each of these parameters were higher than controls, however, after 3 years of treatment. The relative abundance of predaceous nematodes also decreased in year 1 of the experiment, increased in year 2, but decreased again in year 3. In contrast, the relative abundance of root hair feeding nematodes, at first, increased under elevated CO2 and then returned to the initial level again. Increased microbial biomass indicates enhanced C storage in the labile carbon pool of the active microfood web in subsequent years. According to measurements on the amounts of soil extractable C, changes in resource availability seem to be key to the response of the soil microfood web.We found a strong response of bacteria to elevated CO2, while the fungal biomass remained largely unchanged. This contrasts to findings reported in the literature. We hypothesize that this may be because of contrasting effects of different levels of CO2 enrichment on the microbial community (i.e. stimulation of bacteria at moderate levels and stimulation of fungi at high levels of CO2 enrichment). However, various CO2 effects observed in our study are similar in magnitude to those observed in other studies for a much higher level of atmospheric carbon. These include the particular sensitivity of predaceous nematodes and the long-term increase of microbial respiration. Our findings confirm that the potential of terrestrial ecosystems to accumulate additional carbon might be lower than previously thought. Furthermore, CO2-induced changes of temperate grassland ecosystems might emerge much earlier than expected.

Notes: We present carbon stable isotope, δ13C, results from air and organic matter samples collected during 98 individual field campaigns across a network of Carboeuroflux forest sites in 2001 (14 sites) and 2002 (16 sites). Using these data, we tested the hypothesis that δ13C values derived from large-scale atmospheric measurements and models, which are routinely used to partition carbon fluxes between land and ocean, and potentially between respiration and photosynthesis on land, are consistent with directly measured ecosystem-scale δ13C values. In this framework, we also tested the potential of δ13C in canopy air and plant organic matter to record regional-scale ecophysiological patterns.Our network estimates for the mean δ13C of ecosystem respired CO2 and the related ‘discrimination’ of ecosystem respiration, δer and Δer, respectively, were −25.6±1.9‰ and 17.8 ±2.0‰ in 2001 and −26.6±1.5‰ and 19.0±1.6‰ in 2002. The results were in close agreement with δ13C values derived from regional-scale atmospheric measurement programs for 2001, but less so in 2002, which had an unusual precipitation pattern. This suggests that regional-scale atmospheric sampling programs generally capture ecosystem δ13C signals over Europe, but may be limited in capturing some of the interannual variations.In 2001, but less so in 2002, there were discernable longitudinal and seasonal trends in δer. From west to east, across the network, there was a general enrichment in 13C (∼3‰ and ∼1‰ for the 2 years, respectively) consistent with increasing Gorczynski continentality index for warmer and drier conditions. In 2001 only, seasonal 13C enrichment between July and September, followed by depletion in November (from about −26.0‰ to −24.5‰ to −30.0‰), was also observed. In 2001, July and August δer values across the network were significantly related to average daytime vapor pressure deficit (VPD), relative humidity (RH), and, to a lesser degree, air temperature (Ta), but not significantly with monthly average precipitation (Pm). In contrast, in 2002 (a much wetter peak season), δer was significantly related with Ta, but not significantly with VPD and RH. The important role of plant physiological processes on δer in 2001 was emphasized by a relatively rapid turnover (between 1 and 6 days) of assimilated carbon inferred from time-lag analyses of δer vs. meteorological parameters. However, this was not evident in 2002. These analyses also noted corresponding diurnal cycles of δer and meteorological parameters in 2001, indicating a rapid transmission of daytime meteorology, via physiological responses, to the δer signal during this season.Organic matter δ13C results showed progressive 13C enrichment from leaves, through stems and roots to soil organic matter, which may be explained by 13C fractionation during respiration. This enrichment was species dependent and was prominent in angiosperms but not in gymnosperms. δ13C values of organic matter of any of the plant components did not well represent short-term δer values during the seasonal cycle, and could not be used to partition ecosystem respiration into autotrophic and heterotrophic components.

Notes: Rice cultivation is an important anthropogenic source of atmospheric methane (CH4), the emission of which is affected by management practices. Many field measurements have been conducted in major rice-producing countries in Asia. We compiled a database of CH4 emissions from rice fields in Asia from peer-reviewed journals. We developed a statistical model to relate CH4 flux in the rice-growing season to soil properties, water regime in the rice-growing season, water status in the previous season, organic amendment and climate. The statistical results showed that all these variables significantly affected CH4 flux, and explained 68% of the variability. Organic amendment and water regime in the rice-growing season were the top two controlling variables; climate was the least critical variable. The average CH4 fluxes from rice fields with single and multiple drainages were 60% and 52% of that from continuously flooded rice fields. The flux from fields that were flooded in the previous season was 2.8 times that from fields previously drained for a long season and 1.9 times that from fields previously drained for a short season. In contrast to the previously reported optimum soil pH of around neutrality, soils with pH of 5.0–5.5 gave the maximum CH4 emission. The model results demonstrate that application of rice straw at 6 t ha−1 before rice transplanting can increase CH4 emission by 2.1 times; when applied in the previous season, however, it increases CH4 emission by only 0.8 times. Default emission factors and scaling factors for different water regimes and organic amendments derived from this work can be used to develop national or regional emission inventories.

Notes: In the northern Mediterranean Basin, agricultural land abandonment over the last century has resulted in increasing frequencies of very large, intense fires. In Catalonia (NE Spain) some fires have been locally associated with the expansion of the large, evergreen, resprouting tussock grass Ampelodesmos mauritanica. We tested the hypothesis of a positive feedback between the abundance of A. mauritanica and changing fire regimes.We used permanent plots distributed across a natural gradient of density of A. mauritanica in the Garraf Natural Park near Barcelona. Total aboveground biomass nearly doubled from plots with low to high density through a combination of A. mauritanica replacing the biomass of other components of the community (predominantly native shrubs), and its absolute standing biomass increasing. The quantity of litter also increased. This increase in fuel load and changes in community functional composition resulted from the simultaneous decrease in shrub productivity and an increase in litter accumulation. Litter accumulation was the consequence of A. mauritanica litter decomposing 30% more slowly than that of shrubs. Under standardized conditions, A. mauritanica and its litter were considerably more flammable than any of the shrub species. This resulted in a more than 40-fold increase in calculated plot flammability from low-to-high-density plots.Feedbacks, at the landscape scale, were then analysed using the landscape simulation platform LAMOS. Invasion success and contribution to community biomass of A. mauritanica increased with decreasing fire return intervals. Total area burnt in the landscape during each fire year was positively and exponentially related to the total biomass of A. mauritanica. Simulations showed that landscapes can abruptly switch from regimes of small localized to extensive fires as a result of the spread of A. mauritanica. Therefore, increases in fires under climate change represent threats not only through their direct impacts on ecosystems, but also by promoting invaders such as A. mauritanica, which have the potential to induce powerful feedforward processes and, thereby, fundamental changes to ecosystems.

Notes: Field-growing silver birch (Betula pendula Roth) clones (clone 4 and 80) were exposed to elevated CO2 and O3 in open-top chambers for three consecutive growing seasons (1999–2001). At the beginning of the OTC experiment, all trees were 7 years old. We studied the single and interaction effects of CO2 and O3 on silver birch below-ground carbon pools (i.e. effects on fine roots and mycorrhizas, soil microbial communities and sporocarp production) and also assessed whether there are any clonal differences in these below-ground CO2 and O3 responses. The total mycorrhizal infection level of both clones was stimulated by elevated CO2 alone and elevated O3 alone, but not when elevated CO2 was used in fumigation in combination with elevated O3. In both clones, elevated CO2 affected negatively light brown/orange mycorrhizas, while its effect on other mycorrhizal morphotypes was negligible. Elevated O3, instead, clearly decreased the proportions of black and liver-brown mycorrhizas and increased that of light brown/orange mycorrhizas. Elevated O3 had a tendency to decrease standing fine root mass and sporocarp production as well, both of these O3 effects mainly manifesting in clone 4 trees. CO2 and O3 treatment effects on soil microbial community composition (PLFA, 2- and 3-OH-FA profiles) were negligible, but quantitative PLFA data showed that in 2001 the PLFA fungi : bacteria-ratio of clone 80 trees was marginally increased because of elevated CO2 treatments. This study shows that O3 effects were most clearly visible at the mycorrhizal root level and that some clonal differences in CO2 and O3 responses were observable in the below-ground carbon pools. In conclusion, the present data suggests that CO2 effects were minor, whereas increasing tropospheric O3 levels can be an important stress factor in northern birch forests, as they might alter mycorrhizal morphotype assemblages, mycorrhizal infection rates and sporocarp production.

Notes: The Mid-Continent Population of the lesser snow goose, which breeds in the eastern and central Canadian Arctic and sub-Arctic, and winters in the southern United States and northern Mexico has increased 5–7% annually from the late 1960s to the mid-1990s, largely because of increased survival in response to an agricultural food subsidy. The rise in numbers complements the increased use of nitrogen fertilizers and a corresponding rise in yields of rice, corn, and wheat along the flyways and on the wintering grounds. In sub-Arctic migration areas and at Arctic breeding colonies, foraging by high numbers of birds has led to loss of coastal vegetation, adverse changes in soil properties and the establishment of an alternative stable state of exposed sediment, which can be detected with LANDSAT imagery. At a local scale, gosling growth, size and survival decreased in affected areas and other taxa have been adversely affected. The food subsidy on wintering and migration areas appears insufficient to meet reproductive demands as foraging in spring continues to occur on southern Hudson Bay staging and nesting areas. The recent introduction of liberal hunting regulations may reduce population size in the near term, but the revegetation of these coastal ecosystems will take decades to achieve. The present pattern of vegetation loss in these Arctic coastal systems is likely to continue in the forseeable future.

Notes: A strong relationship between dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and sulphate (SO42−) dynamics under drought conditions has been revealed from analysis of a 10-year time series (1993–2002). Soil solution from a blanket peat at 10 cm depth and stream water were collected at biweekly and weekly intervals, respectively, by the Environmental Change Network at Moor House-Upper Teesdale National Nature Reserve in the North Pennine uplands of Britain. DOC concentrations in soil solution and stream water were closely coupled, displaying a strong seasonal cycle with lowest concentrations in early spring and highest in late summer/early autumn. Soil solution DOC correlated strongly with seasonal variations in soil temperature at the same depth 4-weeks prior to sampling. Deviation from this relationship was seen, however, in years with significant water table drawdown (〉−25 cm), such that DOC concentrations were up to 60% lower than expected. Periods of drought also resulted in the release of SO42−, because of the oxidation of inorganic/organic sulphur stored in the peat, which was accompanied by a decrease in pH and increase in ionic strength. As both pH and ionic strength are known to control the solubility of DOC, inclusion of a function to account for DOC suppression because of drought-induced acidification accounted for more of the variability of DOC in soil solution (R2=0.81) than temperature alone (R2=0.58). This statistical model of peat soil solution DOC at 10 cm depth was extended to reproduce 74% of the variation in stream DOC over this period. Analysis of annual budgets showed that the soil was the main source of SO42− during droughts, while atmospheric deposition was the main source in other years. Mass balance calculations also showed that most of the DOC originated from the peat. The DOC flux was also lower in the drought years of 1994 and 1995, reflecting low DOC concentrations in soil and stream water. The analysis presented in this paper suggests that lower concentrations of DOC in both soil and stream waters during drought years can be explained in terms of drought-induced acidification. As future climate change scenarios suggest an increase in the magnitude and frequency of drought events, these results imply potential for a related increase in DOC suppression by episodic acidification.

Notes: In order to analyse temperature effects on decomposition of organic matter, we tested the following hypothesis: Can an Arrhenius type of equation with constant parameter values for the temperature response of decomposer growth rate adequately describe decomposition of organic matter or must some additional properties be made functions of temperature? Possible temperature effects were analysed by aggregating data in different ways from an experiment with 14C-labelled wheat material incubated in the laboratory at different temperatures and with soil materials collected from seven coniferous forest stands in Europe. Our analysis shows that it is possible to let all the temperature dependence reside in the decomposer growth rate. The analysis also supports the use of an Arrhenius type of equation for the temperature response of decomposer growth rate but with the parameters specific for each soil, or at least a distinction between organic and mineral horizons seems necessary.

Notes: The International Geosphere–Biosphere Program has delineated five study areas that form a northern high-latitude network for the analyses of vegetation and carbon dynamics. We examined the magnitude and significance of changes in the land surface phenologies of ecoregions within these transects using the NASA Pathfinder Advanced Very High-Resolution Radiometer Land dataset. We applied the seasonal Mann–Kendall (SMK) trend test, a robust and nonparametric approach, to determine the significance of trends in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) over the five transects. The SMK trend test provides an important alternative over the frequently used but unreliable trend analysis based on linear regression.In addition, we modeled the land surface phenology using quadratic or nonlinear spherical models to relate the NDVI data to accumulated growing degree-days (base 0°C). Nonlinear spherical models parsimoniously describe the green-up dynamics in taiga and tundra ecoregions. Models for each ecoregion within each transect were fitted separately for two time periods (1985–1988 and 1995–1999) and their parameter coefficient estimates were compared. In 10 of 24 ecoregions that comprise 72% of the land area in the transects, the date of the peak NDVI value was significantly earlier (range 2–18 days) in the second study period than in the first study period. This progression was more pronounced in North America than in Siberia (weighted average of 9.3 vs. 6.3 days earlier).Understanding of what constitutes significant change in land surface phenology amidst background variation is a critical component of global change science. A diversity of datasets, techniques, and study areas has led to a range of conclusions about boreal phenology. We discuss statistical pitfalls in standard analyses and offer a framework to conduct statistically reliable change assessments of land surface phenologies.

Notes: Abrupt climate change, such as could occur with significant thermohaline circulation (THC) weakening, appears throughout the palaeoclimate record and in many model experiments. We examine potential responses of ecosystem structure and function to the combined influence of THC collapse and greenhouse gas increase in Central England using a broad range of temperature scenarios. We demonstrate that biological communities in the North Atlantic region could be heavily influenced by THC collapse, but that the pattern of ecosystem responses depends upon the seasonal pattern of temperature changes. Plausible THC collapse scenarios threaten the remnant habitat fragments, upon which much of England's remaining biodiversity depends, by causing shifts away from the currently dominant temperate broadleaf cold deciduous tree type. Furthermore, some ecosystem responses, particularly of energy partitioning between sensible and latent heat fluxes, constitute potentially substantial feedbacks to the local climate system. However, accurate assessment of biotic responses to THC collapse requires far better confidence of the resulting seasonal temperature cycle than climate models currently provide.

Notes: The δ13C values of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) can be used to partition global patterns of CO2 source/sink relationships among terrestrial and oceanic ecosystems using the inversion technique. This approach is very sensitive to estimates of photosynthetic 13C discrimination by terrestrial vegetation (ΔA), and depends on δ13C values of respired CO2 fluxes (δ13CR). Here we show that by combining two independent data streams – the stable isotope ratios of atmospheric CO2 and eddy-covariance CO2 flux measurements – canopy scale estimates of ΔA can be successfully derived in terrestrial ecosystems. We also present the first weekly dataset of seasonal variations in δ13CR from dominant forest ecosystems in the United States between 2001 and 2003. Our observations indicate considerable summer-time variation in the weekly value of δ13CR within coniferous forests (4.0‰ and 5.4‰ at Wind River Canopy Crane Research Facility and Howland Forest, respectively, between May and September). The monthly mean values of δ13CR showed a smaller range (2–3‰), which appeared to significantly correlate with soil water availability. Values of δ13CR were less variable during the growing season at the deciduous forest (Harvard Forest). We suggest that the negative correlation between δ13CR and soil moisture content observed in the two coniferous forests should represent a general ecosystem response to the changes in the distribution of water resources because of climate change. Shifts in δ13CR and ΔA could be of sufficient magnitude globally to impact partitioning calculations of CO2 sinks between oceanic and terrestrial compartments.

Notes: Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration has led to concerns about potential effects on production agriculture as well as agriculture's role in sequestering C. In the fall of 1997, a study was initiated to compare the response of two crop management systems (conventional and conservation) to elevated CO2. The study used a split-plot design replicated three times with two management systems as main plots and two CO2 levels (ambient=375 μL L−1 and elevated CO2=683 μL L−1) as split-plots using open-top chambers on a Decatur silt loam (clayey, kaolinitic, thermic Rhodic Paleudults). The conventional system was a grain sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench.) and soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merr.) rotation with winter fallow and spring tillage practices. In the conservation system, sorghum and soybean were rotated and three cover crops were used (crimson clover (Trifolium incarnatum L.), sunn hemp (Crotalaria juncea L.), and wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)) under no-tillage practices. The effect of management on soil C and biomass responses over two cropping cycles (4 years) were evaluated. In the conservation system, cover crop residue (clover, sunn hemp, and wheat) was increased by elevated CO2, but CO2 effects on weed residue were variable in the conventional system. Elevated CO2 had a greater effect on increasing soybean residue as compared with sorghum, and grain yield increases were greater for soybean followed by wheat and sorghum. Differences in sorghum and soybean residue production within the different management systems were small and variable. Cumulative residue inputs were increased by elevated CO2 and conservation management. Greater inputs resulted in a substantial increase in soil C concentration at the 0–5 cm depth increment in the conservation system under CO2-enriched conditions. Smaller shifts in soil C were noted at greater depths (5–10 and 15–30 cm) because of management or CO2 level. Results suggest that with conservation management in an elevated CO2 environment, greater residue amounts could increase soil C storage as well as increase ground cover.

Notes: A reduction in the length of the snow-covered season in response to a warming of high-latitude and high-elevation ecosystems may increase soil carbon availability both through increased litter fall following longer growing seasons and by allowing early winter soil frosts that lyse plant and microbial cells. To evaluate how an increase in labile carbon during winter may affect ecosystem carbon balance we investigated the relationship between carbon availability and winter CO2 fluxes at several locations in the Colorado Rockies. Landscape-scale surveys of winter CO2 fluxes from sites with different soil carbon content indicated that winter CO2 fluxes were positively related to carbon availability and experimental additions of glucose to soil confirmed that CO2 fluxes from snow-covered soil at temperatures between 0 and −3°C were carbon limited. Glucose added to snow-covered soil increased CO2 fluxes by 52–160% relative to control sites within 24 h and remained 62–70% higher after 30 days. Concurrently a shift in the δ13C values of emitted CO2 toward the glucose value indicated preferential utilization of the added carbon confirming the presence of active heterotrophic respiration in soils at temperatures below 0°C. The sensitivity of these winter fluxes to substrate availability, coupled with predicted changes in winter snow cover, suggests that feedbacks between growing season carbon uptake and winter heterotrophic activity may have unforeseen consequences for carbon and nutrient cycling in northern forests. For example, published winter CO2 fluxes indicate that on average 50% of growing season carbon uptake currently is respired during the winter; changes in winter CO2 flux in response to climate change have the potential to reduce substantially the net carbon sink in these ecosystems.

Notes: Nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) play important roles in peatlands, through their influence on plant production and peat decomposition rates and on redox reactions, respectively, and peatlands contain substantial stores of these two elements. Using peat N and S concentrations and dry bulk density and 210Pb dating, we determined the rates of N and S accumulation over the past 150 years in hummock and hollow profiles from 23 ombrotrophic bogs in eastern Canada. Concentrations of N and S averaged 0.80% and 0.18%, respectively, generally increased with depth in the profile and there was a weak but significant correlation between N and S concentrations. Rates of N and S accumulation over the past 50–150 years ranged from 0.5 to 4.8 g N m−2 yr−1 and from 0.1 to 0.9 g S m−2 yr−1. There were significant but weak correlations between C, N and S accumulation rates over 50-, 100- and 150-year periods. Over the last 50 years, rates of S accumulation showed little differentiation between hummocks and hollows, whereas the pattern for N accumulation was more variable (hummock minus hollow rate ranged from −1 to +1.5 g N m−2 yr−1), with hummocks generally having a larger N accumulation rate, correlated with the rate of carbon (C) accumulation. There was a modest but significant positive correlation between 50-year rates of N accumulation and wet atmospheric deposition of N measured between 1990 and 1996, with accumulation rates about four times that of wet deposition. The difference between deposition and accumulation of N is attributed to organic N deposition, dry deposition and N2 fixation. A weaker, but still significant, correlation was observed between 50-year S accumulation and 1990–1996 wet atmospheric S deposition, with about 75% of the deposited S accumulating in the peat. A laboratory experiment with peat cores exposed to varying water table position and simulated N and S deposition, showed that on average 87% and 98% of the deposited NH4+ and NO3−, respectively, and 58% of the deposited S were retained in the vegetation and unsaturated zone of the cores, supporting the results from the field study.

Notes: Global change may affect the structure and functioning of decomposer food webs through qualitative changes in freshly fallen litter. We analyzed the predicted effects of a changing environment on a dynamic model of a donor-controlled natural decomposer ecosystem near Wekerom, the Netherlands. This system consists of fungi, bacteria, fungivores, bacterivores and omnivores feeding on microbiota and litter as well. The model concentrates on carbon and nitrogen flows through the trophic niches that define this decomposer system, and is designed to predict litter masses and abundances of soil biota. For modeling purposes, the quality of freshly fallen leaf litter is defined in terms of nitrogenous and non-nitrogenous components, of which refractory and labile forms are present. The environmental impacts of elevated CO2, enhanced UV-B and eutrophication, each with their own influence on leaf litter quality, are studied. The model predicts steady-state dynamics exclusively, for all three scenarios. Environmental changes impact most demonstratively on the highest trophic niches, and affect microbiotic abundances and litter decomposition rates to a lesser extent. We conclude that the absence of trophic cascade effects may be attributed to weak trophic links, and that non-equilibrium dynamics occurring in the system are generally because of encounter rates based on fractional substrate densities in the litter. We set out a number of experimentally testable hypotheses that may improve understanding of ecosystem dynamics.

Notes: We performed a synthetic analysis of Harvard Forest net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE) time series and a simple ecosystem carbon flux model, the simplified Photosynthesis and Evapo-Transpiration model (SIPNET). SIPNET runs at a half-daily time step, and has two vegetation carbon pools, a single aggregated soil carbon pool, and a simple soil moisture sub-model. We used a stochastic Bayesian parameter estimation technique that provided posterior distributions of the model parameters, conditioned on the observed fluxes and the model equations. In this analysis, we estimated the values of all quantities that govern model behavior, including both rate constants and initial conditions for carbon pools. The purpose of this analysis was not to calibrate the model to make predictions about future fluxes but rather to understand how much information about process controls can be derived directly from the NEE observations. A wavelet decomposition enabled us to assess model performance at multiple time scales from diurnal to decadal. The model parameters are most highly constrained by eddy flux data at daily to seasonal time scales, suggesting that this approach is not useful for calculating annual integrals. However, the ability of the model to fit both the diurnal and seasonal variability patterns in the data simultaneously, using the same parameter set, indicates the effectiveness of this parameter estimation method. Our results quantify the extent to which the eddy covariance data contain information about the ecosystem process parameters represented in the model, and suggest several next steps in model development and observations for improved synthesis of models with flux observations.

Notes: A comprehensive biogeochemical model, Wetland-DNDC, was applied to analyze the carbon and hydrologic characteristics of forested wetland ecosystem at Minnesota (MN) and Florida (FL) sites. The model simulates the flows of carbon, energy, and water in forested wetlands. Modeled carbon dynamics depends on physiological plant factors, the size of plant pools, environmental factors, and the total amount and turnover rates of soil organic matter. The model realistically simulated water level fluctuation, forest production, carbon pools change, and CO2 and CH4 emission under natural variations in different environmental factors at two sites. Analyses were focused on parameters and inputs potentially cause the greatest uncertainty in calculated change in plant and soil C and water levels fluctuation and shows that it was important to obtain accurate input data for initial C content, climatic conditions, and allocation of net primary production to various forested wetland components. The magnitude of the forest responses was dependent not only on the rate of changes in environmental factors, but also on site-specific conditions such as climate and soil. This paper explores the ability of using the biogeochemical process model Wetland-DNDC to estimate the carbon and hydrologic dynamics of forested wetlands and shifts in these dynamics in response to changing environmental conditions.

Notes: Fine root dynamics have the potential to contribute significantly to ecosystem-scale biogeochemical cycling, including the production and emission of greenhouse gases. This is particularly true in tropical forests which are often characterized as having large fine root biomass and rapid rates of root production and decomposition. We examined patterns in fine root dynamics on two soil types in a lowland moist Amazonian forest, and determined the effect of root decay on rates of C and N trace gas fluxes. Root production averaged 229 (±35) and 153 (±27) g m−2 yr−1 for years 1 and 2 of the study, respectively, and did not vary significantly with soil texture. Root decay was sensitive to soil texture with faster rates in the clay soil (k=−0.96 year−1) than in the sandy loam soil (k=−0.61 year−1), leading to greater standing stocks of dead roots in the sandy loam. Rates of nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions were significantly greater in the clay soil (13±1 ng N cm−2 h−1) than in the sandy loam (1.4±0.2 ng N cm−2 h−1). Root mortality and decay following trenching doubled rates of N2O emissions in the clay and tripled them in sandy loam over a 1-year period. Trenching also increased nitric oxide fluxes, which were greater in the sandy loam than in the clay. We used trenching (clay only) and a mass balance approach to estimate the root contribution to soil respiration. In clay soil root respiration was 264–380 g C m−2 yr−1, accounting for 24% to 35% of the total soil CO2 efflux. Estimates were similar using both approaches. In sandy loam, root respiration rates were slightly higher and more variable (521±206 g C m2 yr−1) and contributed 35% of the total soil respiration. Our results show that soil heterotrophs strongly dominate soil respiration in this forest, regardless of soil texture. Our results also suggest that fine root mortality and decomposition associated with disturbance and land-use change can contribute significantly to increased rates of nitrogen trace gas emissions.

Notes: Anthropogenic increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration and the connected deposition of organic matter into the soil influence the occurrence of decomposers who regulate carbon release back into the atmosphere. The effects of increased concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide, plant species cover quality and nitrogen (N) fertilization on the coenosis composition of soil saprobic microfungi were studied under field conditions (Swiss Free Air Carbon Dioxide Enrichment experiment). In total, 42 species of microfungi were detected in examined soil. The most significant response of soil mycoflora was induced by the species identity of plant cover. Higher N fertilization significantly suppressed the abundance of soil microfungi at ambient CO2. The effect of increased CO2 on colony-forming units was not significant when taken as an independent treatment; however, this factor interacted significantly with N availability. Some species, e.g. the Clonostachys rosea, were proven associated with the plant cover components, in this particular case with Trifolium repens. Therefore, we suggest the identity of plant species constituting plant cover as the most important factors affecting soil microfungi in agroecosystems.

Notes: The present study quantifies changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in Belgium between 1960, 1990 and 2000 for 289 spatially explicit land units with unique soil association and land-use type, termed landscape units (LSU). The SOC stocks are derived from multiple nonstandardized sets of field measurements up to a depth of 30 cm.Approximately half of the LSU show an increase in SOC between 1960 and 2000. The significant increases occur mainly in soils of grassland LSU in northern Belgium. Significant decreases are observed on loamy cropland soils. Although the largest SOC gains are observed for LSU under forest (22 t C ha−1 for coniferous and 29 t C ha−1 for broadleaf and mixed forest in the upper 30 cm of soil), significant changes are rare because of large variability. Because the number of available measurements is very high for agricultural land, most significant changes occur under cropland and grassland, but the corresponding average SOC change is smaller than for forests (9 t C ha−1 increase for grassland and 1 t C ha−1 decrease for cropland).The 1990 data for agricultural LSU show that the SOC changes between 1960 and 2000 are not linear. Most agricultural LSU show a higher SOC stock in 1990 than in 2000, especially in northern Belgium. The observed temporal and spatial patterns can be explained by a change in manure application intensity.SOC stock changes caused by land-use change are estimated. The SOC change over time is derived from observed differences between SOC stocks in space. Because SOC stocks are continuously influenced by a number of external factors, mainly land-use history and current land management and climate, this approach gives only an approximate estimate whose validity is limited to these conditions.

Notes: Process-based models can be classified into: (a) terrestrial biogeochemical models (TBMs), which simulate fluxes of carbon, water and nitrogen coupled within terrestrial ecosystems, and (b) dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), which further couple these processes interactively with changes in slow ecosystem processes depending on resource competition, establishment, growth and mortality of different vegetation types. In this study, four models – RHESSys, GOTILWA+, LPJ-GUESS and ORCHIDEE – representing both modelling approaches were compared and evaluated against benchmarks provided by eddy-covariance measurements of carbon and water fluxes at 15 forest sites within the EUROFLUX project. Overall, model-measurement agreement varied greatly among sites. Both modelling approaches have somewhat different strengths, but there was no model among those tested that universally performed well on the two variables evaluated. Small biases and errors suggest that ORCHIDEE and GOTILWA+ performed better in simulating carbon fluxes while LPJ-GUESS and RHESSys did a better job in simulating water fluxes. In general, the models can be considered as useful tools for studies of climate change impacts on carbon and water cycling in forests. However, the various sources of variation among models simulations and between models simulations and observed data described in this study place some constraints on the results and to some extent reduce their reliability. For example, at most sites in the Mediterranean region all models generally performed poorly most likely because of problems in the representation of water stress effects on both carbon uptake by photosynthesis and carbon release by heterotrophic respiration (Rh).The use of flux data as a means of assessing key processes in models of this type is an important approach to improving model performance. Our results show that the models have value but that further model development is necessary with regard to the representation of the some of the key ecosystem processes.

Notes: Yearly, per-area carbon sequestration rates are used to estimate mitigation potentials by comparing types and areas of land management in 1990 and 2000 and projected to 2010, for the European Union (EU)-15 and for four country-level case studies for which data are available: UK, Sweden, Belgium and Finland. Because cropland area is decreasing in these countries (except for Belgium), and in most European countries there are no incentives in place to encourage soil carbon sequestration, carbon sequestration between 1990 and 2000 was small or negative in the EU-15 and all case study countries. Belgium has a slightly higher estimate for carbon sequestration than the other countries examined. This is at odds with previous reports of decreasing soil organic carbon stocks in Flanders. For all countries except Belgium, carbon sequestration is predicted to be negligible or negative by 2010, based on extrapolated trends, and is small even in Belgium. The only trend in agriculture that may be enhancing carbon stocks on croplands at present is organic farming, and the magnitude of this effect is highly uncertain.Previous studies have focused on the potential for carbon sequestration and have shown quite significant potential. This study, which examines the sequestration likely to occur by 2010, suggests that the potential will not be realized. Without incentives for carbon sequestration in the future, cropland carbon sequestration under Article 3.4 of the Kyoto Protocol will not be an option in EU-15.

Notes: Elevated ocean temperatures can cause coral bleaching, the loss of colour from reef-building corals because of a breakdown of the symbiosis with the dinoflagellate Symbiodinium. Recent studies have warned that global climate change could increase the frequency of coral bleaching and threaten the long-term viability of coral reefs. These assertions are based on projecting the coarse output from atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (GCMs) to the local conditions around representative coral reefs.Here, we conduct the first comprehensive global assessment of coral bleaching under climate change by adapting the NOAA Coral Reef Watch bleaching prediction method to the output of a low- and high-climate sensitivity GCM. First, we develop and test algorithms for predicting mass coral bleaching with GCM-resolution sea surface temperatures for thousands of coral reefs, using a global coral reef map and 1985–2002 bleaching prediction data. We then use the algorithms to determine the frequency of coral bleaching and required thermal adaptation by corals and their endosymbionts under two different emissions scenarios.The results indicate that bleaching could become an annual or biannual event for the vast majority of the world's coral reefs in the next 30–50 years without an increase in thermal tolerance of 0.2–1.0°C per decade. The geographic variability in required thermal adaptation found in each model and emissions scenario suggests that coral reefs in some regions, like Micronesia and western Polynesia, may be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Advances in modelling and monitoring will refine the forecast for individual reefs, but this assessment concludes that the global prognosis is unlikely to change without an accelerated effort to stabilize atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.

Notes: The general lack of significant changes in mineral soil C stocks during CO2-enrichment experiments has cast doubt on predictions that increased soil C can partially offset rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Here, we show, through meta-analysis techniques, that these experiments collectively exhibited a 5.6% increase in soil C over 2–9 years, at a median rate of 19 g C m−2 yr−1. We also measured C accrual in deciduous forest and grassland soils, at rates exceeding 40 g C m−2 yr−1 for 5–8 years, because both systems responded to CO2 enrichment with large increases in root production. Even though native C stocks were relatively large, over half of the accrued C at both sites was incorporated into microaggregates, which protect C and increase its longevity. Our data, in combination with the meta-analysis, demonstrate the potential for mineral soils in diverse temperate ecosystems to store additional C in response to CO2 enrichment.

Notes: In the coming century, forecast climate changes caused by increasing greenhouse gases may produce dramatic shifts in tree species distributions and the rates at which individual tree species sequester carbon or release carbon back to the atmosphere. The species composition and carbon storage capacity of northern Wisconsin (USA) forests are expected to change significantly as a result. Projected temperature changes are relatively large (up to a 5.8°C increase in mean annual temperature) and these forests encompass a broad ecotone that may be particularly sensitive to climate change. Our objective was to estimate the combined effects of climate change, common disturbances, and species migrations on regional forests using spatially interactive simulations. Multiple scenarios were simulated for 200 years to estimate aboveground live biomass and tree species composition. We used a spatially interactive forest landscape model (LANDIS-II) that includes individual tree species, biomass accumulation and decomposition, windthrow, harvesting, and seed dispersal. We used data from two global circulation models, the Hadley Climate Centre (version 2) and the Canadian Climate Center (version 1) to generate transient growth and decomposition parameters for 23 species. The two climate change scenarios were compared with a control scenario of continuing current climate conditions. The results demonstrate how important spatially interactive processes will affect the aboveground live biomass and species composition of northern Wisconsin forests. Forest composition, including species richness, is strongly affected by harvesting, windthrow, and climate change, although five northern species (Abies balsamea, Betula papyrifera, Picea glauca, Pinus banksiana, P. resinosa) are lost in both climate scenarios regardless of disturbance scenario. Changes in aboveground live biomass over time are nonlinear and vary among ecoregions. Aboveground live biomass will be significantly reduced because of species dispersal and migration limitations. The expected shift towards southern oaks and hickory is delayed because of seed dispersal limitations.

Notes: Polar forests once extended across the high-latitude landmasses during ice-free ‘greenhouse’ intervals in Earth history. In the Cretaceous ‘greenhouse’ world, Arctic conifer forests were considered predominantly deciduous, while those on Antarctica contained a significantly greater proportion of evergreens. To investigate the causes of this distinctive biogeographical pattern, we developed a coupled model of conifer growth, soil biogeochemistry and forest dynamics. Our approach emphasized general relationships between leaf lifespan (LL) and function, and incorporated the feedback of LL on soil nutrient status. The model was forced with a mid-Cretaceous ‘greenhouse’ climate simulated by the Hadley Centre GCM. Simulated polar forests contained mixtures of dominant LLs, which reproduced observed biogeographical patterns of deciduous, mixed and evergreen biomes. It emerged that disturbance by fire was a critical factor. Frequent fires in simulated Arctic ecosystems promoted the dominance of trees with short LLs that were characterized by the rapid growth and colonization rates typical of today's boreal pioneer species. In Antarctica, however, infrequent fires allowed trees with longer LLs to dominate because they attained greater height, despite slower growth rates. A direct test of the approach was successfully achieved by comparing modelled LLs with quantitative estimates using Cretaceous fossil woods from Svalbard in the European Arctic and Alexander Island, Antarctica. Observations and the model both revealed mixed Arctic and evergreen Antarctic communities with peak dominance of trees with the same LLs. Our study represents a significant departure from the long-held belief that leaf habit was an adaptation to warm, dark winter climates, and highlights a previously unrecognized role for disturbance (in whatever guise) in polar forest ecology.

Notes: Freezing temperatures strongly influence vegetation in the hottest desert of North America, in part determining both its overall boundary and distributions of plant species within. To evaluate recent variability of freezing temperatures in this context, minimum temperature data from weather stations in the Sonoran Desert are examined. Data show widespread warming trends in winter and spring, decreased frequency of freezing temperatures, lengthening of the freeze-free season, and increased minimum temperatures per winter year. Local land use and multidecadal modes of the global climate system such as the Pacific decadal oscillation and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation do not appear to be principal drivers of this warming. Minimum temperature variability in the Sonoran Desert does, however, correspond to global temperature variability attributed to human-dominated global warming. With warming expected to continue at faster rates throughout the 21st century, potential ecological responses may include contraction of the overall boundary of the Sonoran Desert in the south-east and expansion northward, eastward, and upward in elevation, as well as changes to distributions of plant species within and other characteristics of Sonoran Desert ecosystems. Potential trajectories of vegetation change in the Sonoran Desert region may be affected or made more difficult to predict by uncertain changes in warm season precipitation variability and fire. Opportunities now exist to investigate ecosystem response to regional climate disturbance, as well as to anticipate and plan for continued warming in the Sonoran Desert region.

Notes: Arctic ecosystems are known to be extremely vulnerable to climate change. As the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios project extreme climate events to increase in frequency and severity, we exposed High Arctic tundra plots during 8 days in summer to a temperature rise of approximately 9°C, induced by infrared irradiation, followed by a recovery period. Increased plant growth rates during the heat wave, increased green cover at the end of the heat wave and higher chlorophyll concentrations of all four predominating species (Salix arctica Pall., Arctagrostis latifolia Griseb., Carex bigelowii Torr. ex Schwein and Polygonum viviparum L.) after the recovery period, indicated stimulation of vegetative growth. Improved plant performance during the heat wave was confirmed at plant level by higher leaf photochemical efficiency (Fv/Fm) and at ecosystem level by increased gross canopy photosynthesis. However, in the aftermath of the temperature extreme, the heated plants were more stressed than the unheated plants, probably because they acclimated to warmer conditions and experienced the return to (low) ambient as stressful. We also calculated the impact of the heat wave on the carbon balance of this tundra ecosystem. Below- and aboveground respiration were stimulated by the instantaneous warmer soil and canopy, respectively, outweighing the increased gross photosynthesis. As a result, during the heat wave, the heated plots were a smaller sink compared with their unheated counterparts, whereas afterwards the balance was not affected. If other High Arctic tundra ecosystems react similarly, more frequent extreme temperature events in a future climate may shift this biome towards a source. It is uncertain, however, whether these short-term effects will hold when C exchange rates acclimate to higher average temperatures.

Notes: Nitrous oxide (N2O) fluxes from soil under mown grassland were monitored using static chambers over three growing seasons in intensively and extensively managed systems in Central Switzerland. Emissions were largest following the application of mineral (NH4NO3) fertilizer, but there were also substantial emissions following cattle slurry application, after grass cuts and during the thawing of frozen soil. Continuous flux sampling, using automatic chambers, showed marked diurnal patterns in N2O fluxes during emission peaks, with highest values in the afternoon. Net uptake fluxes of N2O and subambient N2O concentrations in soil open pore space were frequently measured on both fields. Flux integration over 2.5 years yields a cumulated emission of +4.7 kgN2O-N ha−1 for the intensively managed field, equivalent to an average emission factor of 1.1%, and a small net sink activity of −0.4 kg N2O-N ha−1 for the unfertilized system. The data suggest the existence of a consumption mechanism for N2O in dry, areated soil conditions, which cannot be explained by conventional anaerobic denitrification. The effect of fertilization on greenhouse gas budgets of grassland at the ecosystem level is discussed.

Notes: Global warming increasingly pressures species to show adaptive migratory responses. We hypothesized that warming increases invasion of alpine lakes by low-elevation montane zooplankton by suppressing native competitors and predators. This hypothesis was tested by conducting a two-factor experiment, consisting of a warming treatment (13 vs. 20°C) crossed with three invasion levels (alpine only, alpine+montane, montane only), in growth chambers over a 28-day period. Warming significantly reduced total consumer biomass owing to the decline of large alpine species, resulting in greater autotrophic abundance. Significant temperature-invasion interactions occurred as warming suppressed alpine zooplankton, while stimulating certain imported species. Herbivorous invaders suppressed functionally similar alpine species while larger native omnivores reduced invasion by smaller taxa. Warming did not affect total invader biomass because imported species thrived under ambient and warmed alpine conditions. Our findings suggest that the adaptability of remote alpine lake communities to global warming is limited by species dispersal from lower valleys, or possibly nearby warmer alpine ponds.

Notes: As a result of stratospheric ozone depletion, more solar ultraviolet-B radiation (UV-B, 280–315 nm) is reaching the Earth's surface. Enhanced levels of UV-B may, in turn, alter ecosystem processes such as decomposition. Solar UV-B radiation could affect decomposition both indirectly, by changes in the chemical composition of leaves during growth, or directly by photochemical breakdown of litter and through changes in decomposer communities exposed to sunlight. In this experiment, we studied indirect and direct effects of solar UV-B radiation on decomposition of barley (Hordeum vulgare). We used barley straw and leaf litter grown under reduced UV-B (20% of ambient UV-B) or under near-ambient UV-B (90% of ambient UV-B) in Buenos Aires, Argentina, and decomposed the litter under reduced or near-ambient solar UV-B for 29 months in Tierra del Fuego, Argentina.We found that the UV-B treatment applied during growth decreased the decay rate. On the other hand, there was a marginally significant direct effect of elevated UV-B during the early stages of decomposition, suggesting increased mass loss. The effect of UV-B during growth on decomposition was likely the result of changes in plant litter chemical composition. Near-ambient UV-B received during plant growth decreased the concentrations of nitrogen, soluble carbohydrates, and N/P ratio, and increased the concentrations of phosphorus, cellulose, UV-B-absorbing compounds, and lignin/N ratio. Thus, solar UV-B radiation affects the decomposition of barley litter directly and indirectly, and indirect effects are persistent for the whole decomposition period.

Notes: Using data from 28 flux measurement sites, we performed an analysis of the relationship between annual net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and the length of the carbon uptake period (CUP) (the number of days when the ecosystem is a net carbon sink). The observations suggest a linear correlation between the two quantities. The change in annual carbon exchange per day of the CUP differs significantly between deciduous and evergreen vegetation types. The sites containing vegetation with short-lived foliage (less than 1 year) have higher carbon uptake and respiration rates than evergreen vegetation. The ratio between mean daily carbon exchange rates during carbon uptake and release periods is relatively invariant (2.73±1.08) across different vegetation types. This implies that a balance between carbon release and uptake periods exists despite different photosynthetic pathways, life forms, and leaf habits. The mean daily carbon sequestration rate for these ecosystems never exceeds the carbon emission rate by more than a factor of 3. Growing season lengths for the study sites were derived from the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) of advanced very-high-resolution radiometer and from the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) of VEGETATION SPOT-4. NDVI and EVI were found to be closely related to the CUP, and consequently they also can be used to approximate annual carbon exchange of the ecosystems. This approach has potential for allowing extrapolation of NEE over large areas from remotely sensed data, given a certain amount of ancillary information. This method could complement the currently existing techniques for extrapolation, which rely upon modeling of the individual gross fluxes.

Notes: The cushion plant Azorella selago is widespread across the sub-Antarctic, and is considered a keystone species in the dominant fellfield vegetation. However, the impact of current changes in climate in the region (increasing temperature and declining rainfall) on this species is unknown. Here, the response of A. selago to reduced rainfall (a direct effect of climate change) and increased shading (a predicted indirect effect of increasing temperatures, via enhanced growth and wider distribution of more responsive competitors and epiphytes) was experimentally determined. Reduced rainfall increased stem mortality and accelerated autumnal senescence. Furthermore, under this treatment senescence was unequally distributed across individual plants, hypothesized to be a consequence of an interactive effect between rainfall and wind patterns. Shaded stems grew more, and carried larger leaves with lower trichome densities, than their exposed equivalents. As a result, shaded plants were less compact and their surface integrity reduced. The species' response to combined drying and shading was generally similar to its response to shading alone, suggesting that, at least over the short term, the indirect effects of climate change could be more severe than the direct effects. Thus, despite the species' slow growth rate and the short duration of the experiment, persistent direct and indirect effects were observed, both with potential longer-term consequences for A. selago populations. Climate change is, therefore, likely to impact negatively on this long-lived keystone species, with significant implications for the structure and functioning of fellfield systems.

Notes: The influence of recent and projected changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration [CO2] with and without concurrent increases in air temperature was determined with respect to growth characteristics and production of secondary compounds (alkaloids) in tobacco (Nicotiana tabacum L.) and jimson weed (Datura stramonium L.) over a ca. 50-day period. Rising [CO2] above that present at the beginning of the 20th century resulted in consistent, significant increases in leaf area, and above ground dry weight (both species), but decreased leaf area ratio (LAR) and specific leaf area (SLA) in jimson weed. Increased temperature resulted in earlier development and increased leaf area for both species, but increases in above ground final dry weight were observed only for jimson weed. The secondary compounds evaluated included the alkaloids, nicotine, atropine and scopolamine. These compounds are generally recognized as having impacts with respect to herbivory as well as human physiology. Rising [CO2] reduced the concentration of nicotine in tobacco; but had no effect on atropine, and increased the concentration of scopolamine in jimson weed. However, because of the stimulatory effect of [CO2] on growth, the amount of all three secondary compounds increased on a per plant basis in both species. Temperature per se had no effect on nicotine or scopolamine concentration, but significantly increased the concentration and amounts of atropine per plant. Overall, the underlying mechanism of CO2 induced changes in secondary compounds remains unclear; however, these data suggest that the increase in [CO2] and temperature associated with global climate change may have significant effects not only with respect to herbivory, but on the production of secondary compounds of pharmacological impact.

Notes: Atmospheric CO2 concentrations are predicted to double within the next century. Despite this trend, the extent and mechanisms through which elevated CO2 affects plant diseases remain uncertain. In this study, we assessed how elevated CO2 affects a foliar fungal pathogen, Phyllosticta minima, of Acer rubrum growing in the understory at the Duke Forest free-air CO2 enrichment experiment in Durham, North Carolina. Surveys of A. rubrum saplings in the 6th, 7th, and 8th years of the CO2 exposure revealed that elevated CO2 significantly reduced disease incidence, with 22%, 27%, and 8% fewer saplings and 14%, 4%, and 5% fewer leaves infected per plant in the three consecutive years, respectively. Elevated CO2 also significantly reduced disease severity in infected plants in all years (e.g. mean lesion area reduced 35%, 50%, and 10% in 2002, 2003, and 2004, respectively). To assess the mechanisms underlying these changes, we combined leaf structural, physiological and chemical analyses with growth chamber studies of P. minima growth and host infection. In vitro exponential growth rates of P. minima were enhanced by 17% under elevated CO2, discounting the possibility that disease reductions were because of direct negative effects of elevated CO2 on fungal performance. Scanning electron micrographs (SEM) verified that conidia germ tubes of P. minima infect A. rubrum leaves by entering through the stomata. While stomatal size and density were unchanged, stomatal conductance was reduced by 21–36% under elevated CO2, providing smaller openings for infecting germ tubes. Reduced disease severity under elevated CO2 was likely due to altered leaf chemistry and reduced nutritive quality; elevated CO2 reduced leaf N by 20% and increased the C : N ratio by 20%, total phenolics by 15%, and tannins by 14% (P〈0.05 for each factor). The potential dual mechanism we describe here of reduced stomatal opening and altered leaf chemistry that results in reduced disease incidence and severity under elevated CO2 may be prevalent in many plant pathosystems where the pathogen targets the stomata.