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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    How uncertainties in future climate change predictions translate into future terrestrial carbon fluxes (2005)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Science Ltd
    Global change biology 11 (2005), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1365-2486
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: We forced a global terrestrial carbon cycle model by climate fields of 14 ocean and atmosphere general circulation models (OAGCMs) to simulate the response of terrestrial carbon pools and fluxes to climate change over the next century. These models participated in the second phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP2), where a 1% per year increase of atmospheric CO2 was prescribed. We obtain a reduction in net land uptake because of climate change ranging between 1.4 and 5.7 Gt C yr−1 at the time of atmospheric CO2 doubling. Such a reduction in terrestrial carbon sinks is largely dominated by the response of tropical ecosystems, where soil water stress occurs. The uncertainty in the simulated land carbon cycle response is the consequence of discrepancies in land temperature and precipitation changes simulated by the OAGCMs. We use a statistical approach to assess the coherence of the land carbon fluxes response to climate change. The biospheric carbon fluxes and pools changes have a coherent response in the tropics, in the Mediterranean region and in high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. This is because of a good coherence of soil water content change in the first two regions and of temperature change in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.Then we evaluate the carbon uptake uncertainties to the assumptions on plant productivity sensitivity to atmospheric CO2 and on decomposition rate sensitivity to temperature. We show that these uncertainties are on the same order of magnitude than the uncertainty because of climate change. Finally, we find that the OAGCMs having the largest climate sensitivities to CO2 are the ones with the largest soil drying in the tropics, and therefore with the largest reduction of carbon uptake.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.00957.x
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Towards robust regional estimates of CO 2 sources and sinks using atmospheric transport models (2002)
    [s.l.] : Macmillian Magazines Ltd.
    Nature 415 (2002), S. 626-630 
    Details
    ISSN: 1476-4687
    Source: Nature Archives 1869 - 2009
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Notes: [Auszug] Information about regional carbon sources and sinks can be derived from variations in observed atmospheric CO2 concentrations via inverse modelling with atmospheric tracer transport models. A consensus has not yet been reached regarding the size and distribution of regional ...
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/415626a
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  • 3
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Climate in the Pleistocene (1994)
    [s.l.] : Nature Publishing Group
    Nature 371 (1994), S. 111-112 
    Details
    ISSN: 1476-4687
    Source: Nature Archives 1869 - 2009
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Notes: [Auszug] WHITE ET AL. REPLY - We are pleased that the change in calibration suggested by Rice and Giles does not affect our recon-struction of the large [CO2] changes dur-ing the last glacial transition. We agree in principle with their argument, but wish to point out that field studies of 813C values in ...
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/371111b0
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  • 4
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Holocene climate Restless carbon pools (1999)
    [s.l.] : Macmillan Magazines Ltd.
    Nature 398 (1999), S. 111-112 
    Details
    ISSN: 1476-4687
    Source: Nature Archives 1869 - 2009
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Notes: [Auszug] The global carbon cycle is a significant object of study, because carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most important greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, after water vapour. The CO2 concentration in the atmosphere has risen by 80 parts per million by volume (ppmv) over the past two ...
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/18124
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  • 5
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    Demonstration code and input data for Matrix-based sensitivity assessment of soil organic carbon storage: A case study from the ORCHIDEE-MICT model (2018)
    PANGAEA
    In:  Supplement to: Huang, Yuanyuan; Zhu, Dan; Ciais, Philippe; Guenet, Bertrand; Huang, Ye; Goll, Daniel S; Guimberteau, Matthieu; Jornet-Puig, Albert; Lu, Xingjie; Luo, Yiqi (2018): Matrix‐based sensitivity assessment of soil organic carbon storage: A case study from the ORCHIDEE‐MICT model. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 10, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017MS001237
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-01-13
    Description: Modeling of global soil organic carbon (SOC) is accompanied by large uncertainties. The heavy computational requirement limits our flexibility in disentangling uncertainty sources especially in high latitudes. We build a structured sensitivity analyzing framework through reorganizing the ORCHIDEE-MICT model with vertically discretized SOC into one matrix equation, which brings flexibility in comprehensive sensitivity assessment. Through Sobol's method enabled by the matrix, we systematically rank 34 relevant parameters according to variance explained by each parameter and find a strong control of carbon input and turnover time on long-term SOC storages. From further analyses for each soil layer and regional assessment, we find that the active layer depth plays a critical role in the vertical distribution of SOC and SOC equilibrium stocks in northern high latitudes (〉50˚N). However, the impact of active layer depth on SOC is highly interactive and nonlinear, varying across soil layers and grid cells. SOC from regions with low active layer depth (e.g., the northernmost part of America, Asia and some Greenland regions) is most vulnerable to active layer depth in terms of relative changes. The model is sensitive to the parameter that controls vertical mixing (cryoturbation rate) but only when the vertical carbon input from vegetation is limited since the effect of vertical mixing is relatively small. And the current model structure may still lack mechanisms that effectively bury non-recalcitrant SOC. We envision a future with more comprehensive model inter-comparisons and assessments with an ensemble of land carbon models adopting the matrix-based sensitivity framework.
    Type: Dataset
    Format: application/zip, 246.3 kBytes
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  • 6
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    CO2 emissions and ancillary data for 343 cities from diverse sources (2017)
    PANGAEA
    In:  Supplement to: Nangini, Cathy; Peregon, Anna; Ciais, Philippe; Weddige, Ulf; Vogel, Felix; Wang, Jun; Bréon, François-Marie; Bachra, Simeran; Wang, Yilong; Gurney, Kevin; Yamagata, Yoshiki; Appleby, Kyra; Telahoun, Sara; Canadell, Josep G; Grübler, Arnulf; Dhakal, Shobhakar; Creutzig, Felix (2019): A global dataset of CO2 emissions and ancillary data related to emissions for 343 cities. Scientific Data, 6, 180280, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2018.280
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-01-14
    Description: A dataset of dimensions 343 × 179 consisting of CO2 emissions from CDP (187 cities, few in developing countries), the Bonn Center for Local Climate Action and Reporting (73 cities, mainly in developing countries), and data collected by Peking University (83 cities in China). Further, a set of socio-economic variables – called ancillary data – were collected from other datasets (e.g. socio-economic and traffic indices) or calculated (climate indices, urban area expansion), then combined with the emission data. The remaining attributes are descriptive (e.g. city name, country, etc.) or related to quality assurance/control checks. Please open using Tab as separator and " as text delimiter.
    Type: Dataset
    Format: application/zip, 1.8 MBytes
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  • 7
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    Global biomass density of potential wild large grazers for present-day and the last glacial maximum, simulated by a DGVM model (2018)
    PANGAEA
    In:  Supplement to: Zhu, Dan; Ciais, Philippe; Chang, Jinfeng; Krinner, Gerhard; Peng, Shushi; Viovy, Nicolas; Penuelas, Josep; Zimov, Sergey A (2018): The large mean body size of mammalian herbivores explains the productivity paradox during the Last Glacial Maximum. Nature Ecology & Evolution, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-018-0481-y
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-01-13
    Description: Large herbivores are a major agent in ecosystems, influencing vegetation structure and carbon and nutrient flows. Yet most of the current global dynamic vegetation models (DGVMs) lack explicit representation of large herbivores. Here we incorporated a grazing module in the ORCHIDEE-MICT DGVM based on physiological and demographic equations for wild large grazers, taking into account the feedbacks of large grazers on vegetation. The model was applied globally for present-day and the last glacial maximum (LGM). Three NetCDF files are included, corresponding to the model results for three periods: present-day (1960-2009 average), pre-industrial (1860-1899 average), and the last glacial maximum (ca. 21 ka before present). Variables include the modeled potential grazer biomass/population density, along with the directly relevant outputs: vegetation distribution (i.e. fractional coverage of the plant functional types), and gross and net primary productivity. Detailed model descriptions and the simulation setup can be found in: Zhu et al. (2018).
    Keywords: File content; File format; File name; File size; Uniform resource locator/link to file
    Type: Dataset
    Format: text/tab-separated-values, 15 data points
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  • 8
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    Crop yield for 3 crops simulated in West Africa, by four crop models, link to model results in NetCDF format (2017)
    PANGAEA
    In:  Supplement to: Parkes, Ben; Defrance, Dimitri; Sultan, Benjamin; Ciais, Philippe; Wang, Xuhui (2018): Projected changes in crop yield mean and variability over West Africa in a world 1.5K warmer than the pre-industrial era. Earth System Dynamics, 9(1), 119-134, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-119-2018
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-01-13
    Description: The ability of a country or region to feed itself in the upcoming decades is a question of importance. The population in West Africa is expected to increase significantly in the next 30 years. The responses of food crops to short term climate change is therefore critical to the population at large and the decision makers tasked with providing food for their people. An ensemble of near term climate projections are used to simulate maize, millet and sorghum in West Africa in the recent historic and near term future. The mean yields are not expected to alter significantly, while there is an increase in inter annual variability. This increase in variability increases the likelihood of crop failures, which are defined as yield negative anomalies beyond one standard deviation during a period of 20 years. The increasing variability increases the frequency and intensity of crop failures across West Africa. The mean return frequency between mild maize crop failures from process based crop models increases from once every 6.8 years to once every 4.5 years. The mean return time frequency for severe crop failures (beyond 1.5 standard deviations) also almost doubles from once every 16.5 years to once every 8.5 years. Two adaptation responses to climate change, the adoption of heat-resistant cultivars and the use of captured rainwater have been investigated using one crop model in an idealised sensitivity test. The generalised adoption of a cultivar resistant to high temperature stress during flowering is shown to be more beneficial than using rainwater harvesting by both increasing yields and the return frequency of crop failures.
    Keywords: Africa; West_Africa
    Type: Dataset
    Format: application/zip, 27.9 MBytes
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  • 9
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    Global and regional phosphorus budgets in agricultural systems and their implications for phosphorus-use efficiency (2017)
    PANGAEA
    In:  Supplement to: Lun, Fei; Liu, Junguo; Ciais, Philippe; Nesme, Thomas; Chang, Jinfeng; Wang, Rong; Goll, Daniel S; Sardans, Jordi; Penuelas, Josep; Obersteiner, Michael (2017): Global and regional phosphorus budgets in agricultural systems and their implications for phosphorus-use efficiency. Earth System Science Data Discussions, 1-45, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2017-41
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-01-27
    Description: The application of phosphorus (P) fertilizer to agricultural soils increased by 3.2 % annually from 2002 to 2010. We quantified in detail the P inputs and outputs of cropland and pasture, and the P fluxes through human and livestock consumers of agricultural products, at global, regional, and national scales from 2002 to 2010. Globally, half of the total P input (21.3 Tg P yr-1) into agricultural systems accumulated in agricultural soils during this period, with the rest lost to bodies of water through complex flows. Global P accumulation in agricultural soil increased from 2002 to 2010, despite decreases in 2008 and 2009, and the P accumulation occurred primarily in cropland. Despite the global increase of soil P, 32 % of the world's cropland and 43 % of the pasture had soil P deficits. Increasing soil P deficits were found for African cropland, versus increasing P accumulation in Eastern Asia. European and North American pasture had a soil P deficit because continuous removal of biomass P by grazing exceeded P inputs. International trade played a significant role in P redistribution among countries through the flows of P in fertilizer and food among countries. Based on country-scale budgets and trends we propose policy options to potentially mitigate regional P imbalances in agricultural soils, particularly by optimizing the use of phosphate fertilizer and recycling of waste P. The trend of increasing consumption of livestock products will require more P inputs to the agricultural system, implying a low P-use efficiency aggravating the P stocks scarcity in the future. The global and regional phosphorus budgets and their PUEs in agricultural systems is publicly available at https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.875296.
    Type: Dataset
    Format: application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet, 401.3 kBytes
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  • 10
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    The global forest age dataset and its uncertainties (GFADv1.1) (2019)
    PANGAEA
    In:  NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-11-21
    Description: The global forest age dataset (GFAD v.1.1) provides a correction to GFAD v1.0, as well as its uncertainties. GFAD describes the age distributions of plant functional types (PFT) on a 0.5-degree grid. Each grid cell contains information on the fraction of each PFT within an age class. The four PFTs, needleaf evergreen (NEEV), needleleaf deciduous (NEDE), broadleaf evergreen (BREV) and broadleaf deciduous (BRDC) are mapped from the MODIS Collection 5.1 land cover dataset, crosswalking land cover types to PFT fractions. The source of data for the age distributions is from country-level forest inventory for temperate and high-latitude countries, and from biomass for tropical countries. The inventory and biomass data are related to fifteen age classes defined in ten-year intervals, from 1-10 up to a class greater than 150 years old. The uncertainties are estimated for the inventory derived forest age classes as +/- 40% of the mean age. For the areas where age is derived from aboveground biomass, the uncertainty is derived from the 5th and 95th percentile estimates of biomass, but using the same age-aboveground biomass curves. The GFAD dataset represents the 2000-2010 era.
    Type: Dataset
    Format: application/zip, 30.3 MBytes
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