ALBERT

Description: The Agulhas Leakage (AL) transports warm and salty Indian Ocean waters into the Atlantic Ocean and as such is an important component of the global ocean circulation. These waters are part of the upper limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and AL variability has been linked to AMOC variability. The AL is expected to increase under a warming climate due to a shift in the Southern Hemisphere westerlies, which could further influence the AMOC dynamics. This study investigates the AL transport variability on long time scales in the pre-industrial and under a warming climate and its relation to the AMOC. It uses a high-resolution configuration of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) with a nominal horizontal resolution of 0.1° for the ocean and sea-ice and 0.25° for the atmosphere and land, which resolves the necessary spatial scales. The simulated AL transport of 19.7 ± 3 Sv lies well within the observed range of 21.3 ± 4.7 Sv. A positive correlation between the Agulhas Current and the AL is shown, meaning that an increase of the Agulhas Current transport leads to an increase in AL. Furthermore, the salt flux associated with the AL influences AMOC dynamics through the salt-advection feedback by reducing the AMOC’s freshwater transport at 34°S. In a warming climate, the AL transport was indeed found to increase due to strengthened and southward shifting winds while the Agulhas Current transport was found to decrease. Consequently, a larger fraction of the Agulhas Current will flow into the Atlantic Ocean rather than being recirculated into the Indian Ocean. The increase in AL is accompanied by a higher salt flux into the Atlantic Ocean, which destabilises the AMOC within the salt-advection-feedback. But whether and to what extent this additional salt advected to the North Atlantic could also dampen an AMOC weakening induced by increased meltwater input under climate change still needs further research.