Publication Date:
2017-04-04
Description:
Probabilistic characterizations of possible future eruptive scenarios at Vesuvius volcano are elaborated and
organized within a risk-based framework. In the EXPLORIS project, a wide variety of topics relating to this
basic problem have been pursued: updates of historical data, reinterpretation of previous geological field
data and the collection of new fieldwork results, the development of novel numerical modelling codes and of
risk assessment techniques have all been completed. To achieve coherence, many diverse strands of evidence
had to be unified within a formalised structure, and linked together by expert knowledge. For this purpose, a
Vesuvius ‘Event Tree’ (ET) was created to summarise in a numerical-graphical form, at different levels of
detail, all the relative likelihoods relating to the genesis and style of eruption, development and nature of
volcanic hazards, and the probabilities of occurrence of different volcanic risks in the next eruption crisis. The
Event Tree formulation provides a logical pathway connecting generic probabilistic hazard assessment to
quantitative risk evaluation. In order to achieve a complete parameterization for this all-inclusive approach,
exhaustive hazard and risk models were needed, quantified with comprehensive uncertainty distributions
for all factors involved, rather than simple ‘best-estimate’ or nominal values. Thus, a structured expert
elicitation procedure was implemented to complement more traditional data analysis and interpretative
approaches. The structure of the Vesuvius Event Tree is presented, and some of the data analysis findings and
elicitation outcomes that have provided initial indicative probability distributions to be associated with each
of its branches are summarized. The Event Tree extends from initiating volcanic eruption events and hazards
right through to human impact and infrastructure consequences, with the complete tree and its
parameterisation forming a quantitative synoptic framework for comprehensive hazard evaluation and
mapping of risk impacts. The organization of the Event Tree allows easy updating, as and when new
information becomes available
Description:
Published
Description:
397-415
Description:
4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
Description:
JCR Journal
Description:
reserved
Keywords:
Vesuvius
;
volcanic hazard
;
volcanic risk
;
probabilistic risk assessment
;
04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
Repository Name:
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
Type:
article
